Waste Connections Inc (WCN) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Waste Connections Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded Thursday, February 17, 2022. I would now like to turn the conference over to Worthing Jackman, President and CEO. Please go ahead.

您好，歡迎來到 Waste Connections 2021 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，本次會議將於 2022 年 2 月 17 日星期四錄製。我現在想將會議轉交給總裁兼首席執行官沃辛傑克曼。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and good morning. I'd like to welcome everyone to this conference call to discuss fourth quarter results and our outlook for both the first quarter and full year 2022. I'm joined this morning by Mary Anne Whitney, our CFO.

謝謝接線員，早上好。歡迎大家參加本次電話會議，討論第四季度業績以及我們對 2022 年第一季度和全年的展望。今天早上，我們的首席財務官 Mary Anne Whitney 也加入了我的行列。

As noted in our earnings release, 2021 ended on a high note, as strong solid waste organic growth and acquisition activity, along with continuing underlying margin expansion drove Q4 financial results once again above expectations. Acquisition activity accelerated in the fourth quarter, resulting in approximately $400 million in acquired annualized revenues in 2021 and setting up acquisition contribution approaching 6% in 2022 including transactions completed year-to-date. Along with solid waste pricing growth of about 6.5%, this already positions us for double-digit percentage growth in revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow in 2022.

正如我們在財報中指出的那樣，2021 年以高調結束，因為強勁的固體廢物有機增長和收購活動，以及持續的基礎利潤率擴張推動第四季度財務業績再次超出預期。收購活動在第四季度加速，導致 2021 年獲得約 4 億美元的年化收入，並在 2022 年建立接近 6% 的收購貢獻，包括年初至今完成的交易。隨著固體廢物價格增長約 6.5%，這已經使我們在 2022 年實現收入、調整後 EBITDA 和調整後自由現金流的兩位數百分比增長。

Put simply, 2021 is a reflection of how an intentional culture of commitment and accountability to all stakeholders enabled us to excel in a challenging operating environment, overcome inflationary pressures and supply chain issues, execute our growth strategy, expand margins, support employee health and welfare and position the company well for 2022 and beyond.

簡而言之，2021 年反映了對所有利益相關者的有意識的承諾和問責文化如何使我們能夠在充滿挑戰的經營環境中脫穎而出，克服通脹壓力和供應鏈問題，執行我們的增長戰略，擴大利潤率，支持員工健康和福利並為公司做好 2022 年及以後的定位。

Before we get into much more detail, let me turn the call over to Mary Anne for our forward-looking disclaimer and other housekeeping items.

在我們深入了解更多細節之前，讓我將電話轉給瑪麗安妮，了解我們的前瞻性免責聲明和其他內務事項。

Thank you, Worthing, and good morning. The discussion during today's call includes forward-looking statements made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 including forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws. Actual results could differ materially from those made in such forward-looking statements due to various risks and uncertainties.

謝謝你，沃辛，早上好。今天電話會議中的討論包括根據 1995 年美國私人證券訴訟改革法案的安全港條款作出的前瞻性陳述，包括適用加拿大證券法含義內的前瞻性信息。由於各種風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與此類前瞻性陳述中的結果存在重大差異。

Factors that could cause actual results to differ are discussed both in the cautionary statement included in our February 16 earnings release and in greater detail in Waste Connections filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Securities Commissions or similar regulatory authorities in Canada. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements as there may be additional risks of which we are not presently aware or that we currently believe are immaterial, which could have an adverse impact on our business. We make no commitment to revise or update any forward-looking statements in order to reflect events or circumstances that may change after today's date.

可能導致實際結果不同的因素在我們 2 月 16 日發布的收益報告中的警示性聲明中以及 Waste Connections 向美國證券交易委員會和加拿大證券委員會或類似監管機構提交的文件中進行了更詳細的討論。您不應過分依賴前瞻性陳述，因為可能存在我們目前尚未意識到或我們目前認為不重要的其他風險，這些風險可能會對我們的業務產生不利影響。我們不承諾修改或更新任何前瞻性陳述以反映今天日期之後可能發生變化的事件或情況。

On the call, we will discuss non-GAAP measures such as adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income attributable to Waste Connections on both a dollar basis and per diluted share, and adjusted free cash flow. Please refer to our earnings releases for a reconciliation of such non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measures. Management uses certain non-GAAP measures to evaluate and monitor the ongoing financial performance of our operations. Other companies may calculate these non-GAAP measures differently.

在電話會議上，我們將討論非 GAAP 指標，例如調整後的 EBITDA、調整後歸屬於 Waste Connections 的淨收入（按美元計算和稀釋後每股計算）以及調整後的自由現金流。請參閱我們的收益發布，了解此類非 GAAP 措施與最具可比性的 GAAP 措施的對賬情況。管理層使用某些非 GAAP 措施來評估和監控我們運營的持續財務績效。其他公司可能會以不同方式計算這些非 GAAP 指標。

I will now turn the call back over to Worthing.

我現在將電話轉回 Worthing。

Thank you, Mary Anne. We're extremely pleased with our strong operating and financial performance in Q4 and throughout 2021 as we manage through the pandemic and related impacts with an intentional approach to strategy, culture, execution and value creation. Our proactive approach to pricing through labor pressures, accelerating capital expenditures through supply chain constraints, and maintaining our focus on servicing our customers drove record performance in 2021 and positions us for another outsized year of revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow growth in 2022.

謝謝你，瑪麗安妮。我們對第四季度和整個 2021 年強勁的運營和財務業績感到非常滿意，因為我們通過有意識的戰略、文化、執行和價值創造方法來應對大流行病和相關影響。我們通過勞動力壓力主動定價，通過供應鏈限制加速資本支出，並繼續專注於為客戶提供服務，這些都推動了 2021 年創紀錄的業績，並使我們在 2022 年再次實現超額收入、調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後的自由現金流增長.

We often highlight the importance of a culture in driving differentiated results, and our results are emblematic of that purposeful culture in action. Our culture guided our response from the onset of the pandemic as we focused on reducing employee concerns regarding health, welfare and family obligations. To date, that investment totals over $50 million, primarily focused on our frontline employees, including $10 million during the recent Omicron surge in January, when we reinstituted both paid leave for COVID-19-related absences and supplemental wages and recognition of frontline efforts to honor our service commitments during an extremely tough operating environment.

我們經常強調文化在推動差異化結果方面的重要性，而我們的結果是這種有目的的文化在行動中的象徵。我們的文化從大流行開始就指導我們的應對措施，因為我們專注於減少員工對健康、福利和家庭義務的擔憂。迄今為止，該投資總額超過 5000 萬美元，主要集中在我們的一線員工上，其中包括 1 月份最近 Omicron 激增期間的 1000 萬美元，當時我們恢復了因 COVID-19 相關缺勤的帶薪休假和補充工資，以及對一線員工努力的認可在極其惡劣的運營環境中履行我們的服務承諾。

That intentional focus on execution also drove continuous improvement in safety in 2021, as we not only maintain the 12% gains we achieved in safety-related incident rates during 2020, but drove continued improvement in spite of reopening activity. During 2021, over 55% of our operating locations either posted 0 safety-related incidents or year-over-year improvements, and our total recorded injury rate and cost of risk as a percentage of revenue remained well below industry averages.

這種對執行的有意識的關注也推動了 2021 年安全的持續改進，因為我們不僅保持了 2020 年安全相關事故率 12% 的增長，而且儘管活動重新開放，但仍推動了持續改進。 2021 年，我們超過 55% 的運營地點發生了 0 起安全相關事件或同比有所改善，我們記錄的總傷害率和風險成本佔收入的百分比仍遠低於行業平均水平。

We also delivered 5% solid waste price in 2021, 100 basis points above our initial outlook as we recognize and address the need for incremental price throughout the year to help offset inflationary pressures. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded each quarter, excluding the impact of acquisitions, and it was up 70 basis points for the full year, even including the impact of acquisitions. Moreover, we're already set up for pricing of about 6.5% in 2022 and perhaps ultimately approaching 7% as we recognize the realities of continued elevated inflation rates, which informs our outlook for 2022.

我們還在 2021 年實現了 5% 的固體廢物價格，比我們最初的預期高出 100 個基點，因為我們認識到並解決了全年提高價格以幫助抵消通脹壓力的需求。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率每個季度都在擴大，不包括收購的影響，全年增長 70 個基點，甚至包括收購的影響。此外，我們已經將 2022 年的定價定在 6.5% 左右，並可能最終接近 7%，因為我們認識到通貨膨脹率持續升高的現實，這為我們對 2022 年的展望提供了依據。

In spite of inflationary pressures and a 25% year-over-year increase in CapEx in 2021, adjusted free cash flow increased 20% and exceeded $1 billion with a conversion rate of over 52% of adjusted EBITDA. We are positioned for similar strong conversion and continuing double-digit free cash flow growth again in 2022.

儘管存在通脹壓力且 2021 年資本支出同比增長 25%，但調整後的自由現金流增長了 20% 並超過 10 億美元，轉換率超過調整後 EBITDA 的 52%。我們準備在 2022 年再次實現類似的強勁轉換和持續兩位數的自由現金流增長。

We continue to reinvest in and grow our business, successfully accelerating fleet and equipment purchases in spite of macro supply chain issues. Looking ahead, our 2022 outlook includes CapEx up another 14% to $850 million, including $100 million for new landfill gas and resource recovery facilities. Consistent with our priorities identified in our sustainability report, these investments include 2 greenfield recycling facilities in existing markets and renewable gas projects at 2 of our landfills, all projected to be operational in late 2023. At approximately $150 million in total capital outlays over 2 years, these are strategic investments with attractive paybacks even at more normalized values for recovered resources.

儘管存在宏觀供應鏈問題，我們仍繼續對業務進行再投資和發展，成功地加快了車隊和設備的採購。展望未來，我們的 2022 年展望包括資本支出再增長 14% 至 8.5 億美元，其中 1 億美元用於新的垃圾填埋氣和資源回收設施。根據我們在可持續發展報告中確定的優先事項，這些投資包括現有市場的 2 個綠地回收設施和我們 2 個垃圾填埋場的可再生氣體項目，所有這些項目預計將於 2023 年底投入運營。2 年的總資本支出約為 1.5 億美元，這些是戰略投資，即使以回收資源的更標準化價值計算，回報也很有吸引力。

As we have consistently emphasized in our approach to ESG, these projects are an integral part of our business and are consistent with our focus on value creation. Looking specifically at the 2 renewable gas facilities at our landfills, these projects are part of a group of 15 to 20 projects in various stages of development and expect it to be completed over the next 10 to 15 years, with third-party partners involved in about 2/3 of these opportunities and Waste Connections owning the remainder.

正如我們在 ESG 方法中一貫強調的那樣，這些項目是我們業務不可或缺的一部分，並且與我們對價值創造的關註一致。具體來看我們垃圾填埋場的 2 個可再生氣體設施，這些項目是處於不同開發階段的 15 到 20 個項目的一部分，預計將在未來 10 到 15 年內完成，第三方合作夥伴參與大約 2/3 的機會和 Waste Connections 擁有剩餘的機會。

Looking next at acquisitions. Following 4 years of above-average activity, 2021 once again stood out for the pace of magnitude of activity, which accelerated at year-end as expected to drive another outsized year. We completed over 30 acquisitions, all in solid waste and spread across our geographic footprint in both franchise and new competitive markets and including a number of tuck-ins to existing operations. We continue to be selective about the markets we pursue, the risk profiles we accept and the valuations that we determined to be appropriate. In total, we acquired approximately $400 million in annualized revenue in 2021 and we've closed another $100 million annualized revenue year-to-date, providing 2022 acquisition contribution of about $350 million in revenue or about 6% from deals already completed. This strong start to the year, along with continued elevated acquisition dialogue, potentially sets up 2022 for another outsized year of activity.

接下來看收購。在連續 4 年高於平均水平的活動之後，2021 年的活動速度再次脫穎而出，如預期的那樣在年底加速，將推動又一個超常的一年。我們完成了 30 多次收購，全部涉及固體廢物，並且遍布我們在特許經營和新競爭市場的地理足跡，包括對現有業務的一些收購。我們繼續對我們追求的市場、我們接受的風險狀況以及我們認為合適的估值進行選擇。總的來說，我們在 2021 年獲得了約 4 億美元的年化收入，並且我們今年迄今又完成了 1 億美元的年化收入，為 2022 年的收購貢獻了約 3.5 億美元的收入，約佔已完成交易的 6%。這一年的強勁開局，加上收購對話的持續升溫，可能會為 2022 年又一個超大規模的活動奠定基礎。

In spite of acquisition outlays of over $1 billion and almost doubling our return of capital to shareholders in 2021, our leverage remained essentially flat at about 2.4x net debt to EBITDA. We remain well positioned for continuing elevated levels of investment in our solid waste growth strategy, whether via organic growth, new resource recovery projects or solid waste acquisitions. It's an all-of-the-above approach with differentiated returns, not one with trade-offs that drives continuing long-term double-digit free cash flow per share growth.

儘管收購支出超過 10 億美元，並且我們在 2021 年向股東的資本回報率幾乎翻了一番，但我們的槓桿率基本持平，約為 EBITDA 淨債務的 2.4 倍。無論是通過有機增長、新資源回收項目還是固體廢物收購，我們仍然處於有利地位，可以繼續提高對我們固體廢物增長戰略的投資水平。這是一種具有差異化回報的所有上述方法，而不是一種可以推動持續的長期兩位數每股自由現金流增長的權衡。

2021 marked our 18th consecutive year of positive total shareholder returns, and we returned $560 million to shareholders through dividends and opportunistic share repurchases, including about $350 million of shares repurchased in early and late 2021. In addition, we've already repurchased another $425 million of shares in 2022.

2021 年是我們連續第 18 年實現股東總回報為正，我們通過股息和機會性股票回購向股東返還了 5.6 億美元，其中包括 2021 年初和年底回購的約 3.5 億美元股票。此外，我們已經回購了另外 4.25 億美元2022 年的股份。

Now I'd like to pass the call to Mary Anne to review more in depth the financial highlights of the fourth quarter and provide a detailed outlook for Q1 and our full year 2022. I will then wrap up before heading into Q&A.

現在我想轉達 Mary Anne 的電話，讓她更深入地回顧第四季度的財務亮點，並提供第一季度和我們 2022 年全年的詳細展望。然後我將在進入問答環節之前總結一下。

Thank you, Worthing. In the fourth quarter, revenue was $1.624 billion, about $44 million above our outlook and up $226 million or 16% year-over-year. Acquisitions completed since the year ago period contributed about $83 million of revenue in the quarter or about $79 million net of divestitures. Total price in Q4 of 5.7%, including about 70 basis points in fuel and material surcharges, was our highest reported price in the decade and range from about 2.6% in our mostly exclusive market Western region to between 5.8% and 7.2% in our competitive markets.

謝謝你，沃辛。第四季度收入為 16.24 億美元，比我們的預期高出約 4400 萬美元，同比增長 2.26 億美元或 16%。自去年同期以來完成的收購為本季度貢獻了約 8300 萬美元的收入，或扣除資產剝離後的約 7900 萬美元。第 4 季度的總價格為 5.7%，包括約 70 個基點的燃料和材料附加費，是我們十年來報告的最高價格，範圍從我們主要的獨家市場西部地區的約 2.6% 到我們競爭激烈的市場的 5.8% 至 7.2% 之間市場。

Solid waste volumes of 1.2% exceeded our expectations with positive volumes in all U.S. regions. Volumes were strongest in our Central region, including Colorado and the plain states, where mild winter weather through most of the quarter led to better-than-expected activity, and also in our Western region, where landfill activity was strong, up until late December's epic snowfall. Underlying volumes were also up in Canada, but down on a reported basis due to the expiration during the quarter of a poor quality municipal contract inherited in our 2016 Progressive Waste acquisition.

1.2% 的固體廢物量超出了我們的預期，美國所有地區的廢物量都為正。我們的中部地區（包括科羅拉多州和平原州）的銷量最為強勁，該地區本季度大部分時間都是溫和的冬季天氣，導致活動好於預期，而西部地區的垃圾填埋場活動也很強勁，直到 12 月下旬史詩般的降雪。加拿大的基礎交易量也有所上升，但由於我們在 2016 年 Progressive Waste 收購中繼承的質量較差的市政合同在本季度到期，因此在報告的基礎上有所下降。

Looking at year-over-year results in the fourth quarter on a same-store basis. Commercial collection revenue was up 13%, roll-off revenue was up 11% and pulls per day up 5% with revenue per pull up 6%, and landfill tons were up 4% on increases of 3% to 5% in all waste types.

在同店的基礎上查看第四季度的同比結果。商業收集收入增長 13%，轉運收入增長 11%，每天拉動收入增長 5%，每次拉動收入增長 6%，垃圾填埋場噸數增長 4%，所有垃圾類型增長 3% 至 5% .

Moving on to E&P waste. As expected, revenue was essentially in line with the prior quarter at about $34 million, up $9 million year-over-year and up about 45% from the lows we saw in mid-2020. We remain encouraged by increased rig counts and elevated crude pricing levels, which, if sustained, could lead to increased E&P waste activity over the course of 2022.

繼續 E&P 廢物。正如預期的那樣，收入與上一季度基本持平，約為 3400 萬美元，同比增長 900 萬美元，比我們在 2020 年年中看到的低點增長了約 45%。我們仍然對鑽機數量增加和原油價格水平上漲感到鼓舞，如果這種情況持續下去，可能會導致 2022 年 E&P 廢物活動增加。

Looking at Q4 revenues from recovered commodities, that is recycled commodities, landfill gas and renewable energy credits or RIN. Excluding acquisitions, in the aggregate, they were up about 90% year-over-year due to both higher RIN prices and higher recycled commodity revenues due to strong fiber values. Prices for OCC or old corrugated containers, averaged about $185 per ton in Q4, decreasing during the quarter to end the year at about $170 with current values about $160 per ton. Renewable energy credits or RINs averaged about $2.80 in Q4, including the impact of a hedge, which rolled off at year-end.

查看回收商品的第四季度收入，即回收商品、垃圾填埋場氣體和可再生能源信用或 RIN。不包括收購，總的來說，由於 RIN 價格上漲和纖維價值強勁導致回收商品收入增加，它們同比增長約 90%。 OCC 或舊瓦楞紙箱的價格在第四季度平均約為每噸 185 美元，在本季度末下降至約 170 美元，當前價值約為每噸 160 美元。可再生能源信用額度或 RIN 在第四季度平均約為 2.80 美元，包括對沖的影響，該對沖在年底推出。

During Q4, spot rates were in the range of $3.25 to $3.50 where they have remained year-to-date. Adjusted EBITDA for Q4, as reconciled in our earnings release, was $495 million, about $9 million above our outlook, and 30.5% of revenue, up 20 basis points year-over-year, excluding the margin dilutive impact of acquisition. Underlying solid waste margin expansion of about 40 basis points, plus 90 basis points from recycled commodities, RINs and E&P net of fuel more than offset higher wages and COVID-19-related increased overtime and outside repairs as well as the return of certain discretionary and COVID-19-related support costs.

在第四季度，即期匯率在 3.25 美元至 3.50 美元之間，與年初至今保持一致。根據我們的收益發布，調整後的第四季度 EBITDA 為 4.95 億美元，比我們的預期高出約 900 萬美元，佔收入的 30.5%，同比增長 20 個基點，不包括收購的利潤率攤薄影響。基礎固體廢物利潤率增長約 40 個基點，加上回收商品、RIN 和 E&P 扣除燃料後的 90 個基點，足以抵消更高的工資和與 COVID-19 相關的加班和外部維修增加以及某些可自由支配和與 COVID-19 相關的支持費用。

Capital expenditures of $744 million in 2021 were about $44 million above expectations as we continue to capitalize on opportunities to acquire fleet and equipment as we approached year-end. In spite of CapEx up 25% on a year-over-year basis, we delivered full year adjusted free cash flow up 20% year-over-year at $1.01 billion or 16.4% of revenue, reflecting a conversion of 52.6% of adjusted EBITDA. Moreover, we entered 2022 well positioned from a working capital standpoint, which once again provides a strong cushion.

2021 年的資本支出為 7.44 億美元，比預期高出約 4400 萬美元，因為我們在臨近年底時繼續利用機會收購車隊和設備。儘管資本支出同比增長 25%，但我們全年調整後的自由現金流同比增長 20% 至 10.1 億美元，佔收入的 16.4%，反映了調整後 EBITDA 的 52.6% 的轉換.此外，從營運資金的角度來看，我們進入了 2022 年，這再次提供了強大的緩衝。

I will now review our outlook for the first quarter and full year 2022. Before I do, we'd like to remind everyone once again that actual results may vary significantly based on risks and uncertainties outlined in our safe harbor statement and filings we've made with the SEC and the Securities Commissions or similar regulatory authorities in Canada. We encourage investors to review these factors carefully.

我現在將回顧我們對 2022 年第一季度和全年的展望。在此之前，我們想再次提醒大家，根據我們的安全港聲明和我們提交的文件中概述的風險和不確定性，實際結果可能會有很大差異與 SEC 和證券委員會或加拿大的類似監管機構一起製作。我們鼓勵投資者仔細審查這些因素。

Our outlook assumes no change in the current economic environment. It also excludes any impact from additional acquisitions that may close during the remainder of the year and expensing of transaction-related items during the period.

我們的展望假設當前的經濟環境沒有變化。它還不包括可能在今年剩餘時間內完成的額外收購和在此期間與交易相關的項目支出的任何影響。

Looking first at the full year 2022. Revenue in 2022 is estimated at $6.875 billion. For solid waste, we expect mostly price-led organic growth of 6.5% to 7%, plus about $350 million from acquisitions already completed, with the E&P waste revenue and the values for recycled commodities and renewable fuels assumed about in line with current levels. Adjusted EBITDA in 2022, as reconciled in our earnings release, is expected to be approximately $2.145 billion or 31.2% of revenue. Excluding the 20 basis point margin dilutive impact of acquisitions already completed and 15 basis points for January's COVID support costs, margins would be up about 35 basis points. Any moderation in inflationary trends, increases in the values for recovered commodities or in E&P waste activity or additional acquisitions closed during the year would provide upside to our initial 2022 outlook.

首先看 2022 年全年。2022 年的收入估計為 68.75 億美元。對於固體廢物，我們預計主要是價格主導的有機增長 6.5% 至 7%，加上已經完成的收購約 3.5 億美元，勘探與生產廢物收入以及回收商品和可再生燃料的價值假定與當前水平基本一致。根據我們的收益報告，2022 年調整後的 EBITDA 預計約為 21.45 億美元，佔收入的 31.2%。排除已完成收購的 20 個基點利潤率稀釋影響和 1 月份 COVID 支持成本的 15 個基點，利潤率將上升約 35 個基點。通脹趨勢的任何緩和、回收商品或勘探與生產廢物活動價值的增加或年內完成的額外收購都將為我們最初的 2022 年展望提供上行空間。

Regarding tax rates. Our effective tax rate for 2022 is expected to be approximately 22% with some quarter-to-quarter variability, and cash taxes are expected at 50% to 60% of book. And finally, our share count is expected to be about 259 million on a fully diluted basis, consistent with the share repurchases already completed year-to-date. Adjusted free cash flow in 2022 as reconciled in our earnings release is expected to be approximately $1.15 billion or about 53.5% of adjusted EBITDA and about 16.7% of revenue on CapEx totaling $850 million, including $100 million for new landfill gas and resource recovery facilities, as Worthing described.

關於稅率。我們 2022 年的有效稅率預計約為 22%，季度間存在一定差異，現金稅預計為帳面收入的 50% 至 60%。最後，我們的股票數量預計在完全稀釋的基礎上約為 2.59 億股，這與年初至今已經完成的股票回購一致。在我們的收益發布中調整後的 2022 年自由現金流預計約為 11.5 億美元，約佔調整後 EBITDA 的 53.5%，佔總收入 8.5 億美元的資本支出的 16.7%，其中包括 1 億美元用於新的垃圾填埋氣和資源回收設施，正如沃辛所描述的那樣。

To be clear, 2022 adjusted free cash flow of $1.15 billion projected up 13.9% year-over-year includes the incremental $100 million in CapEx.

需要明確的是，2022 年調整後的自由現金流為 11.5 億美元，預計同比增長 13.9%，其中包括增加的 1 億美元資本支出。

Turning now to our outlook for Q1 2022. Revenue for Q1 is estimated to be approximately $1.61 billion. We expect price plus volume growth for solid waste of about 6.5%, primarily price. The positive volume trends we saw in most of Q4 continued into January, but severe winter weather has since impacted many parts of The U.S. Reported volumes will also continue to be impacted by the expiration of the municipal contract in Canada noted earlier as well as the end earlier this quarter of the remaining low-quality Progressive Waste municipal contracts in our Southern region. We've mentioned looking forward to the end of these lingering poor quality contracts since completing the Progressive Waste acquisition in 2016. In the aggregate, they account for revenues of about $50 million or about 80 basis points of volume. We're happily redeploying assets from both of these expired contracts for better returns.

現在轉向我們對 2022 年第一季度的展望。第一季度的收入估計約為 16.1 億美元。我們預計固體廢物的價格和數量增長約為 6.5%，主要是價格。我們在第 4 季度的大部分時間看到的積極銷量趨勢一直持續到 1 月，但嚴冬天氣已經影響了美國的許多地區。報告的銷量也將繼續受到前面提到的加拿大市政合同到期以及年底的影響本季度早些時候，我們南部地區剩餘的低質量 Progressive Waste 市政合同。自 2016 年完成對 Progressive Waste 的收購以來，我們已經提到期待這些揮之不去的劣質合同的結束。總的來說，它們佔收入約 5000 萬美元或約 80 個基點的數量。我們很高興從這兩個過期合同中重新部署資產以獲得更好的回報。

E&P waste revenue on recovered commodity values are expected to remain in line with current levels. Adjusted EBITDA in Q1 is estimated to be approximately $495 million or 30.7% of revenue, down 30 basis points year-over-year. Excluding 30 basis points margin dilutive impact from acquisitions already completed and 60 basis points impact from January's COVID support, margins would be up about 60 basis points in the quarter.

回收商品價值的 E&P 廢物收入預計將與當前水平保持一致。第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 估計約為 4.95 億美元，佔收入的 30.7%，同比下降 30 個基點。排除已經完成的收購帶來的 30 個基點的利潤率稀釋影響和 1 月份 COVID 支持帶來的 60 個基點的影響，本季度利潤率將上升約 60 個基點。

Depreciation and amortization for the first quarter is estimated to be about 13.4% of revenue, including amortization of intangibles of about $37 million or $0.11 per diluted share, net of tax. Interest expense net of interest income is estimated at approximately $40 million. And now let me turn the call back over to Worthing for some final remarks before Q&A.

第一季度的折舊和攤銷估計約為收入的 13.4%，包括約 3700 萬美元或攤薄後每股 0.11 美元的無形資產攤銷（稅後）。扣除利息收入後的利息支出估計約為 4000 萬美元。現在讓我把電話轉回給 Worthing，以便在問答之前發表一些最後的評論。

Terrific. Thank you, Mary Anne. We define intentional to mean a sustained commitment to being deliberate and purposeful in everything we do to achieve desired, predictable and differentiated results. The strength and consistency of our results reflect the durability of our market model and the benefits of an intentional culture focused on employees and value creation. Put simply, we have a playbook that has served us well, whether at revenues of $30 million or now approaching $7 billion, providing the visibility to deliver on our commitments.

了不起。謝謝你，瑪麗安妮。我們將有意定義為持續致力於在我們所做的每一件事中都經過深思熟慮和有目的的，以實現期望的、可預測的和差異化的結果。我們業績的實力和一致性反映了我們市場模式的持久性以及專注於員工和價值創造的有意文化的好處。簡而言之，無論是 3000 萬美元的收入還是現在接近 70 億美元的收入，我們都有一個對我們很有幫助的劇本，提供了實現我們承諾的可見性。

We recognize at the onset of the pandemic that the challenges of this period could create opportunities for differentiation in terms of culture, strategy and value creation. Looking back at the past 2 years, we couldn't be prouder of our teams and their accomplishments, driving outsized financial performance and operational excellence while adhering to the values that have set Waste Connections apart since the company's inception.

我們在大流行開始時就認識到，這一時期的挑戰可能會在文化、戰略和價值創造方面創造差異化機會。回顧過去 2 年，我們為我們的團隊和他們的成就感到無比自豪，他們推動了超凡的財務業績和卓越的運營，同時堅持自公司成立以來使 Waste Connections 與眾不同的價值觀。

As we enter our 25th anniversary year in 2022, we look forward to more opportunities to be back together, to celebrate the successes that have driven a track record of growth and value creation and to further accelerate our speed of execution. Moreover, we're looking ahead as we position ourselves for revenue of $10 billion and more.

在 2022 年我們進入 25 週年之際，我們期待有更多機會重聚，慶祝推動增長和價值創造記錄的成功，並進一步加快我們的執行速度。此外，我們展望未來，因為我們將自己定位為 100 億美元或更多的收入。

We appreciate your time today. I'll now turn this call over to the operator to open up the lines for your questions. Operator?

感謝您今天的寶貴時間。我現在將把這個電話轉給接線員，以便為你的問題開通線路。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Walter Spracklin with RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Walter Spracklin 與 RBC Capital Markets 的合作。

So my first question, I guess, is on capital deployment. And certainly, when large companies get a lot of cash, a lot of investors have some concerns about strategic drift and so on. And when you look at your opportunity set going forward, whether it's RNG, whether it's acquisitions or other growth opportunities, how do you prioritize? And is there any risk that as you get bigger, you start to have less and less opportunities in your core markets and start to look at projects that's perhaps outside of solid waste? Can you perhaps, Worthing, talk a little bit about where those priorities are and where you see that opportunity set? Or is that still far off in the distance?

所以我想我的第一個問題是關於資本配置。當然，當大公司獲得大量現金時，很多投資者都會擔心戰略漂移等問題。當你審視未來的機會集時，無論是 RNG、收購還是其他增長機會，你如何確定優先順序？當你變得更大時，你在核心市場的機會越來越少，並開始關注可能不屬於固體廢物的項目，這是否存在任何風險？ Worthing，您能否談談這些優先事項在哪里以及您在哪裡看到機會集？還是那還很遙遠？

Yes. As I try to wrap up my comments today, our priorities remain -- to maintain the playbook that we know has driven our success and that is capitalizing on opportunities in solid waste. As you know, the opportunity basket is quite large. We look -- we focus on a subset of the opportunity basket, some $3.5 billion to $4 billion of revenue that fits our market model. That's a fraction of the total available or addressable market when it comes to that.

是的。當我試圖結束今天的評論時，我們的首要任務仍然是——保持我們所知道的推動我們成功的劇本，即利用固體廢物中的機會。如您所知，機會籃子非常大。我們看——我們專注於機會籃子的一個子集，大約 35 億至 40 億美元的收入適合我們的市場模型。就此而言，這只是整個可用或可尋址市場的一小部分。

I was pretty clear on -- in October, with my thoughts on moving away from solid waste to other "environmental solutions or services-type businesses". It's -- I'll stand by those comments back in October. So it's not something we look at with regards to a drift.

我很清楚——在 10 月份，我的想法是從固體廢物轉移到其他“環境解決方案或服務型企業”。這是——我會在 10 月份支持這些評論。因此，關於漂移，這不是我們要看的東西。

When it comes to capital deployment, I think our view has always been, we have an all of the above approach as I said also -- it's not about trade-offs. Look, the -- when you think about acquisitions, sellers drive most of the timing and the transactions we do, whether it be last year, early on and people concerned about changing tax rates. That was a big impetus for a while as the year moved on, and we've got more clarity on that. Frankly, owner exhaustion in trying to run a business in a pandemic world, in a labor-constrained environment, in an inflationary environment, et cetera, it takes a different focus to succeed in this. And so that seems to be driving a lot of the transactions that we're looking at right now.

在資本部署方面，我認為我們的觀點一直是，正如我所說，我們採用了上述所有方法——這與權衡無關。看，當你考慮收購時，賣家推動了我們所做的大部分時間和交易，無論是去年還是早期，人們都擔心稅率的變化。隨著時間的推移，這在一段時間內是一個很大的推動力，我們對此有了更多的了解。坦率地說，在大流行的世界、勞動力受限的環境、通貨膨脹的環境等環境中，所有者精疲力竭地試圖經營一家企業，要在這方面取得成功需要不同的重點。因此，這似乎正在推動我們目前正在研究的大量交易。

And so, again, sellers drive most of the opportunities and the timing around that. We're ready to take advantage of that and capitalize on that. Again, the resource recovery projects. We look at it and these are years in development. The ones we're finally breaking ground on today have been years on the drawing board. And the timing of those really is nothing more than now the expansions that landfills might have been done, the permittings in place, or the pipelines are now available, et cetera. So there's a host of things that drive the timing. That's why we look at it and say, over the next 10 to 15 years, we can see a pipeline of projects.

因此，再次，賣家推動了大部分機會和時機。我們準備好利用這一點並加以利用。再次，資源回收項目。我們看著它，這些都是多年的發展。我們今天終於破土動工的那些已經在繪圖板上多年了。而這些的時機實際上只不過是現在垃圾填埋場可能已經完成的擴建，到位的許可，或者管道現在可用，等等。因此，有很多因素會影響時機。這就是為什麼我們看著它說，在接下來的 10 到 15 年裡，我們可以看到一系列項目。

But as we look at it, it's not like we're going to own all of them. As we said before, 2/3 as we see it already involve third parties in this planning and development. And frankly, in many cases, it's because the landfill rights are already under some contractual obligation that we're now talking to them about tearing up existing contracts and kind of redoing things for the benefit of both parties.

但就我們而言，我們並不打算擁有所有這些。正如我們之前所說，我們看到 2/3 已經讓第三方參與了此規劃和開發。坦率地說，在許多情況下，正是因為垃圾填埋場的權利已經受到某些合同義務的約束，所以我們現在正在與他們討論撕毀現有合同並為了雙方的利益而重做一些事情。

And so it's -- we don't see a large amount of capital being deployed on the landfill gas side because that's -- as I said, it's only 1/3 of the projects or less that we will own. And frankly, if you look back of these 2 projects and look at some press releases that have been out there over the past 2 months, I mean, there are 2 other projects that we're doing a partnership with third parties of it and out there 2 of our landfills. And so theoretically, out of the 4 that we're doing right now to our own.

因此，我們沒有看到大量資金部署在垃圾填埋氣方面，因為正如我所說，我們將擁有的項目只有 1/3 或更少。坦率地說，如果你回顧這兩個項目並查看過去兩個月發布的一些新聞稿，我的意思是，還有兩個其他項目我們正在與第三方建立合作夥伴關係我們有 2 個垃圾填埋場。所以從理論上講，在我們現在正在做的 4 個中，我們自己做。

So in other words, that's not consuming so much capital that there's a trade-off of that or something else. Acquisitions are always more accretive than buying back our stock. Obviously, the market episodically provides opportunities to buy back our stock, but we clearly understand that deploying capital and acquisitions is accretive to value creation. And doing smaller transactions provide a lower risk profile and a lot better return per capital dollar deployed than doing larger public-to-public type transactions.

所以換句話說，這並沒有消耗太多的資本，以至於需要權衡這一點或其他東西。收購總是比回購我們的股票更具增值性。顯然，市場偶爾會提供回購我們股票的機會，但我們清楚地知道部署資本和收購會增加價值創造。與進行較大的公共對公共類型的交易相比，進行較小的交易可提供較低的風險狀況和更高的單位資本回報率。

And so what's made us successful, as I said in the last 25 years, we'll continue to be our playbook going forward, and we talked about a pathway to $10 billion or more in revenue. And we'll execute the playbook to that.

因此，是什麼讓我們成功了，正如我在過去 25 年所說的那樣，我們將繼續成為我們前進的劇本，我們談到了實現 100 億美元或更多收入的途徑。我們將執行劇本。

That's fantastic. And certainly a prioritization that's consistent with, I think, what investors are looking for. Now the second, my follow-up question here is really on if we look out a number of years, I guess, firstly, you did $1 billion in acquisitions. That's certainly well above what you kind of trended in prior years. How many more year -- billion-dollar years are there? And when we're past that whenever that might be, can you give us a peek into what your return of capital strategy will be once you get of a size that acquisitions simply won't be able to -- won't be enough out there, how would you look at return of capital -- return of capital to shareholders?

這太妙了。當然，我認為與投資者正在尋找的東西一致的優先順序。現在第二個問題是，如果我們展望未來幾年，我想，首先，你進行了 10 億美元的收購。這肯定遠遠高於你前幾年的趨勢。還有多少年——十億美元年？當我們過去的時候，無論何時，你能不能讓我們看看你的資本回報策略將是什麼，一旦你達到收購根本無法達到的規模 - 將不夠在那裡，您如何看待資本回報——資本回報給股東？

Sure. We've been consistent in saying this for probably a decade now as we continue to grow the business, because it's not about chasing a growth rate. What we look at is a -- on a risk return basis, the lowest risk path to a double-digit free cash flow per share growth. And we have said this all along, as we get bigger, our expectation has always been that shrinking the denominator and the share count becomes a component of that pathway to double digit, not just increasing the numerator.

當然。在我們繼續發展業務的過程中，我們一直這麼說可能已經十年了，因為這與追求增長率無關。我們看到的是——在風險回報的基礎上，每股自由現金流增長兩位數的最低風險路徑。我們一直都這麼說，隨著我們變得更大，我們的期望一直是縮小分母和股票數量成為實現兩位數的途徑的一個組成部分，而不僅僅是增加分子。

It's just the fact that's happened over the past 6, 7 or more years, the top line growth from acquisitions has driven a numerator growth that has allowed lower mid-teens free cash flow per share CAGR. I mean our belief has always been that at some point in time, we transition to the organic side, providing 7%, 8%, 9% of that pathway to top line growth, acquisitions, topping that off by 1 or 2 percentage points, as in a repurchase of 1% to 2% of our stock providing another couple of points to that growth. So the pathway to get to the double-digit sustained free cash flow per share growth can change over time.

這只是在過去 6 年、7 年或更長時間裡發生的事實，收購帶來的收入增長推動了分子增長，這使得每股自由現金流的 CAGR 低於中等水平。我的意思是，我們的信念一直是，在某個時間點，我們會過渡到有機方面，提供 7%、8%、9% 的途徑來實現收入增長、收購，最重要的是 1 或 2 個百分點，比如回購 1% 到 2% 的股票，為這種增長提供了另外幾個點。因此，實現每股兩位數持續自由現金流增長的途徑可能會隨著時間的推移而改變。

Frankly, it's -- if organic growth continues to drive more of it over time, it's a much lower CapEx deployment for that attainment.

坦率地說，如果有機增長隨著時間的推移繼續推動更多增長，那麼實現這一目標的資本支出部署就會低得多。

Makes a lot of sense. Appreciate the time. As always, congrats on the great quarter.

很有道理。珍惜時光。一如既往，祝賀偉大的季度。

Our next question comes from the line of Hamzah Mazari with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Hamzah Mazari。

My question is just -- around just operating leverage. I know you guided that to 20 bps. But maybe you could just talk about with price-led organic growth of 7%, how does that sort of break out between open market and franchise? And then, just what's your assumption on cost inflation in that guide of, kind of, 20 bps of leverage? .

我的問題只是——圍繞運營槓桿。我知道您將其引導至 20 個基點。但也許你可以談談以價格為主導的 7% 的有機增長，這種情況如何在公開市場和特許經營之間突破？然後，在那種 20 個基點的槓桿率指南中，您對成本通脹的假設是什麼？ .

Sure, I'll start and then hand it off to Mary Anne. Good question, Hamzah. So I know it's atypical for folks to run models in an inflationary environment because it's new to many. But if you think -- as we look at it right here, assuming a 6% overall cost inflation, it takes 4.5% of price just to overcome down on a dollar basis, right? And if that's all we did, that's about 80 basis points dilutive.

當然，我會開始，然後將它交給 Mary Anne。問得好，哈姆扎。所以我知道人們在通貨膨脹環境中運行模型是不典型的，因為它對許多人來說是新的。但是，如果你認為——正如我們在這裡看到的那樣，假設總體成本通脹率為 6%，那麼僅需 4.5% 的價格才能克服以美元為基礎的下跌，對嗎？如果這就是我們所做的一切，那將稀釋大約 80 個基點。

So the fact is, is that to drive 20 basis points on a reported basis of expansion ex acquisitions, it's really 100 basis point margin expansion, because first thing we do is by going to 6.5% or more as we're overcoming the 80 basis point dilution that just inflationary results in and then some because we're driving a 6.5% to 7% price.

所以事實是，要在報告的收購擴張基礎上推動 20 個基點，這實際上是 100 個基點的利潤率擴張，因為我們要做的第一件事是在克服 80 個基點時達到 6.5% 或更多只是通貨膨脹導致的點稀釋，然後是一些因為我們正在推動 6.5% 到 7% 的價格。

And so it's the optics. I know why the optics, you say, "Well, why is it just 20 in such a strong pricing environment?" The fact is it's a 100 basis point margin expansion over the impact of inflation through reported numbers. And Mary Anne, that breaks down...

這就是光學。我知道為什麼光學，你說，“嗯，為什麼在如此強大的定價環境下它只有 20？”事實上，通過報告的數字，它比通貨膨脹的影響擴大了 100 個基點。和瑪麗安妮，它崩潰了......

Sure. Sure. So again, when you think about that 6.5%, maybe plus on price, the way it breaks down in our exclusive markets, that's around 4% and in the competitive markets that's 6% to 8%. So you have 50 to 100 basis points higher on both sides in terms of what's driving the difference between 5% last year and 6.5% this year.

當然。當然。所以，再一次，當你考慮 6.5% 時，也許加上價格，它在我們的獨家市場中的分解方式約為 4%，而在競爭市場中為 6% 至 8%。因此，就導致去年 5% 和今年 6.5% 之間差異的原因而言，雙方都高出 50 到 100 個基點。

And as Worthing said, we think of that as addressing the inflationary environment we're currently in. So exactly how you define that, whether you call that 5.5%, 6% that type of inflation, that's what we're seeing around us, and that's what we are addressing.

正如 Worthing 所說，我們認為這是解決我們目前所處的通貨膨脹環境的問題。所以你到底如何定義它，無論你稱之為 5.5%、6% 那種類型的通貨膨脹，這就是我們在我們周圍看到的，這就是我們正在解決的問題。

As you'll recall, Hamzah, back in October, we talked about thinking maybe 5.5%, 6%, and we said we were comfortable at the high end of the range. We've stepped that up to 6.5%. And as Worthing mentioned in his remarks, maybe higher than that, maybe ultimately at 7%, because what we're doing is addressing the environment we're in. And we think that's the right way to be proactive from a pricing standpoint.

正如你所記得的，Hamzah，早在 10 月份，我們就曾討論過 5.5%、6% 的想法，我們說我們對范圍的高端感到滿意。我們已將其提高到 6.5%。正如 Worthing 在他的評論中提到的那樣，可能會更高，最終可能會達到 7%，因為我們正在做的是解決我們所處的環境。我們認為從定價的角度來看，這是積極主動的正確方法。

And the importance -- again, the importance of understanding the need to get the 80 basis points back and then some on the margin side is inflation is not just in the P&L. Inflation's on capital as well, right in the CapEx, and we're seeing increases, as you might imagine, on fleet, construction and other outlays. So you now don't have to cover it through what's been impacting your P&L, but what's impacting your CapEx as well because that's how we maintain the very high conversion rate of EBITDA to free cash flow.

重要的是 - 再次理解需要恢復 80 個基點的重要性，然後在邊際方面的一些是通貨膨脹不僅僅是在損益表中。通貨膨脹也影響資本，就在資本支出中，正如您可能想像的那樣，我們看到車隊、建築和其他支出有所增加。因此，您現在不必通過影響您的 P&L 的因素來解決它，而是通過影響您的資本支出的因素來解決它，因為這就是我們保持 EBITDA 到自由現金流的非常高的轉換率的方式。

Very helpful. My second question and I'll turn it over is just -- at what point does your leverage get too low where I guess your leverage is 2.4x net. It feels like the acquisition environment, as you pointed out, could be as good as 2021. That's going to add a lot more EBITDA. If you're sitting below 2x, I'm not saying you're going to sit below 2x next year. But at some point, if you're below 2x, do you do a special dividend? Do you just buy back more stock? At what point does -- do you just say that the balance sheet is too under-levered?

很有幫助。我的第二個問題，我會把它轉過來——在什麼時候你的槓桿率會變得太低，我猜你的槓桿率是 2.4 倍淨值。正如您所指出的，感覺收購環境可能與 2021 年一樣好。這將增加更多的 EBITDA。如果你坐在 2 倍以下，我並不是說你明年會坐在 2 倍以下。但在某些時候，如果你低於 2 倍，你會進行特別股息嗎？你只是回購更多的股票嗎？在什麼時候 - 你只是說資產負債表的槓桿率太低了？

Well, I think if you look at the -- good question, if you look at the outlays this year, if this year looks like last year, we'll exit the year closer to 3x level, right? Because between the $1 billion outlay and acquisitions, if that occurs, the outlay you've already seen on share repurchases of [4.25] and we're just early in the year, right? And so we expect to exit the year closer to 3x, that gives us all the flexibility, again, looking forward to continue the growth model and return to capital. It's -- well, it's hard to imagine that we would ever get below 2x given the way we're running the business.

好吧，我想如果你看看 - 好問題，如果你看看今年的支出，如果今年看起來像去年，我們將在接近 3 倍的水平結束這一年，對吧？因為在 10 億美元的支出和收購之間，如果發生這種情況，你已經看到 [4.25] 的股票回購支出，我們只是今年年初，對吧？因此，我們預計今年將接近 3 倍，這給了我們所有的靈活性，再次期待繼續增長模式並回歸資本。這是 - 好吧，鑑於我們經營業務的方式，很難想像我們會低於 2 倍。

Right. And to Worthing's earlier comments about capital deployment, again, we've tried to be consistent to remind people that look back to pre-progress that we were buying back 3% to 4% of shares. And so there's certainly optionality to increase the capital -- the return of capital to shareholders in that environment.

正確的。對於 Worthing 早些時候關於資本部署的評論，我們再次試圖始終如一地提醒人們回顧我們正在回購 3% 至 4% 的股份。因此，當然有增加資本的選擇權——在那種環境下向股東返還資本。

Our next question comes from the line of Tyler Brown with Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Tyler Brown 和 Raymond James 的台詞。

Mary Anne, just real quick. Do you specifically have what E&P and fuel, the impact there on margins? It sounded like there was a lot in that 90 basis points of commodity and other stuff in there that you talked about?

瑪麗安妮，真快。您具體有哪些 E&P 和燃料，對利潤率有什麼影響？聽起來你所說的 90 個基點的商品和其他東西有很多？

So looking ahead, it's a nominal tailwind. If you think about where we are this year versus where we averaged last year, kind of the tailwinds from recycling, RINs and E&P net of fuel, maybe that's 20 basis points of tailwind net as we move ahead. So a small nominal benefit in '22.

所以展望未來，這是名義上的順風。如果你想想我們今年與去年的平均水平相比，回收利用、RIN 和 E&P 淨燃料的某種順風，也許這是我們前進時順風網的 20 個基點。所以 22 年的名義收益很小。

Yes, Tyler, we derisked fuel somewhat more late last year when you saw that massive dislocation in crude for that brief period of time in December.

是的，泰勒，去年年底，當你看到原油在 12 月的那段短暫時間內出現大規模錯位時，我們對燃料的風險有所降低。

Okay. Okay. That's helpful. And then I appreciate the Q1 guidance, very helpful. And maybe, Worthing, you kind of already addressed this, but how should we think about the cadence of margins through the year? I mean it sounded like you guys might be a little bit more consistent versus more back-end loaded?

好的。好的。這很有幫助。然後我感謝 Q1 指導，非常有幫助。也許，沃辛，你已經解決了這個問題，但我們應該如何考慮全年利潤率的節奏？我的意思是聽起來你們可能更一致而不是更多的後端負載？

That's right. I think that's a great observation. And we recognize that there's some -- there's certainly some puts and takes. But as we think about guiding the full year up 20 basis points ex acquisitions, and then telling you, well, look, it's up 30 basis points in Q1, that tells you that it's going to be pretty similar as we move through the year. It's really not a bet on something changing in the back half of the year.

這是正確的。我認為這是一個很好的觀察。我們認識到有一些——肯定有一些投入和投入。但是當我們考慮指導全年上漲 20 個基點（不包括收購），然後告訴你，好吧，看，第一季度上漲了 30 個基點，這告訴你，隨著我們今年的發展，它會非常相似。這真的不是賭今年下半年會發生什麼變化。

We acknowledge that there's a little more benefit from recycling RINs, et cetera, earlier in the year, but we told you about COVID costs. So I'd say that the sort of puts and takes that've been anticipated as you move through the year, there's less of that noise. And the year-over-year margin activity therefore becomes far more consistent as you move through the year quarter-by-quarter.

我們承認，今年早些時候回收 RIN 等會帶來更多好處，但我們曾向您介紹過 COVID 成本。所以我想說的是，隨著你在這一年的發展，你已經預料到的那種看跌和看跌的情況，噪音會減少。因此，當您按季度逐年移動時，同比利潤率活動變得更加一致。

Yes, I think it's consistent in '22 because it was consistent in '21.

是的，我認為它在 22 年是一致的，因為它在 21 年是一致的。

Okay. Right. So there's not an assumption that things -- inflation gets significantly easier in the back half in the guidance.

好的。正確的。因此，沒有假設事情——通貨膨脹在指導的後半部分變得容易得多。

And nor is there entering the year with a big year-over-year decline that makes that back-end assumption a taller mountain.

進入今年也不會出現同比大幅下降，從而使後端假設成為一座更高的山。

Okay, okay. And then on sustainability linked CapEx. I realize that there's a good pipeline of RNG projects, but can you talk about the 2 MRFs? I guess, is there a tail opportunity there? Or were these just kind of advantageous opportunities to internalize some third-party commodity volumes? Just any thoughts there?

好吧好吧。然後是與可持續性相關的資本支出。我知道有很多 RNG 項目，但你能談談這 2 個 MRF 嗎？我想，那裡有尾巴機會嗎？或者這些只是內部化一些第三方商品數量的有利機會？有什麼想法嗎？

Yes, that's the way to think about it, Tyler. As we've described in our sustainability objectives that we'd increase our recycling capacity, we've talked about the fact that there would be these greenfield opportunities. So these are 2 markets where we already have the recyclables, we're collecting them and we were utilizing a third-party facility.

是的，這就是思考它的方式，泰勒。正如我們在可持續發展目標中所描述的那樣，我們將提高我們的回收能力，我們已經談到了會有這些綠地機會的事實。所以這些是我們已經擁有可回收物的兩個市場，我們正在收集它們，並且我們正在利用第三方設施。

So what this does for us, of course, is it internalizes those tons. It derisks the processing fee aspect of it. And it also provides an opportunity to put the new technology into a new facility, the use of robotics or optical sort of, less reliance on labor. So really a win-win in terms of the timing and the opportunity there. Those are somewhat unique opportunities. We'll certainly look for others, but that's the way to think about that opportunity set.

那麼，這對我們的作用當然是將這些噸內化。它消除了它的加工費方面的風險。它還提供了將新技術應用於新設施的機會，使用機器人技術或光學技術，減少對勞動力的依賴。因此，就時機和機會而言，這確實是雙贏的。這些都是一些獨特的機會。我們當然會尋找其他人，但這是考慮機會集的方式。

Once we do those projects, we're mostly optimized throughout our footprint, with regard to recycling facilities.

一旦我們完成了這些項目，就回收設施而言，我們的足跡基本上得到了優化。

Our next question comes from the line of Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jerry Revich 與 Goldman Sachs 的對話。

Good morning, everyone. Mary Anne, can we just talk about the first quarter guidance a bit more? So you folks are going to get good core price contribution, probably closer to 7 points in the first quarter. And so I just want to make sure I understand the volume comments that you made, because it looks like maybe the volume contemplates flat to down organic volume? Is that the impact of the winter weather that you referred to? Can you just expand on that? Or is there just enough moving pieces in the guide to give us room to execute in this environment?

大家，早安。瑪麗安妮，我們能再多談談第一季度的指導嗎？所以你們將獲得良好的核心價格貢獻，第一季度可能接近 7 個百分點。所以我只是想確保我理解你所做的音量評論，因為它看起來可能是在考慮持平到下降有機音量？那是你提到的冬季天氣的影響嗎？你能擴展一下嗎？或者指南中是否有足夠的移動部分來為我們提供在這種環境中執行的空間？

Sure. We'll start -- first off, we sort of like to guide to what we know and leave upside for things outside of our control, and we put volume in that category, particularly during the winter. So with that observation, I'd then call out the fact that we have baked in these contracts that went away.

當然。我們將開始 - 首先，我們有點喜歡指導我們所知道的事情，並為我們無法控制的事情留下上行空間，我們將交易量歸入該類別，尤其是在冬季。因此，通過這種觀察，我會指出一個事實，即我們已經簽訂了這些已經失效的合同。

And so if you think about our full year guidance at, maybe whether it's half a point of volume add to that the 80 basis points for these contracts that went away and you're in what we would characterize as a more normalized, call it, 1.5% type of volume environment. And I'd say the first quarter is the same way with that caveat around winter weather and just, arguably, rather waiting to see until that comes.

因此，如果您考慮我們的全年指導，也許是這些合同消失的 80 個基點的交易量增加了半個點，並且您處於我們稱之為更正常化的狀態，稱之為， 1.5% 類型的體積環境。我想說的是，第一季度與冬季天氣的警告相同，而且可以說，寧願等到那一天到來。

Now what I would say is if I look at trends in January, it is encouraging to see that the same kind of positive, sort of, low single-digit type of numbers coming out of our landfills and our roll-off pulls, which are -- those are good real-time indicators of what we're seeing out there and could be indicative of the kind of volumes we'll report.

現在我要說的是，如果我看一下 1 月份的趨勢，令人鼓舞的是，我們的垃圾填埋場和滾降拉動中出現了同樣積極的、低個位數類型的數字，這是- 這些是我們在那裡看到的很好的實時指標，可以指示我們將報告的數量。

Terrific. And then in terms of the recycling opportunities for you folks, can you just remind us of what proportion of your collections business is recycling today? And of that, what proportion do you dispose to third-party facilities? Are you folks optimistic on acquisition opportunities in areas that don't require greenfields, as you alluded to, where they -- is there an opportunity for accelerated M&A in parts of the footprint where you disposed the third parties?

了不起。然後就你們的回收機會而言，您能否提醒我們今天回收業務的回收比例是多少？其中，您將多少比例分配給第三方設施？你們是否對不需要綠地的地區的收購機會持樂觀態度，正如您所提到的那樣，他們 - 是否有機會在您處置第三方的部分足跡中加速併購？

Yes. I mean, again, as I said earlier, these last 2 facilities optimize our recycling position and our current footprint. The majority of our tons in our facilities come off our trucks. And so to Mary Anne's point about reducing our reliance or risk exposure to third parties, this buttons that up.

是的。我的意思是，正如我之前所說，這最後兩個設施優化了我們的回收狀況和我們目前的足跡。我們設施中的大部分噸都來自我們的卡車。因此，對於 Mary Anne 關於減少我們對第三方的依賴或風險暴露的觀點，這將起到推動作用。

Obviously, acquisitions that bring us into new markets create new opportunities. You've seen transaction we did in Massachusetts last year. That is more of a resource recovery market. But those acquisitions are coming with their own resource recovery facilities. Obviously, as we do more tuck-ins in those markets, we'll be able to bring more volumes into those facilities to the extent we're not already getting those.

顯然，將我們帶入新市場的收購創造了新的機會。您已經看到我們去年在馬薩諸塞州進行的交易。這更像是一個資源回收市場。但這些收購伴隨著他們自己的資源回收設施。顯然，隨著我們在這些市場做更多的工作，我們將能夠在我們尚未獲得的範圍內為這些設施帶來更多的數量。

But once you've got your footprint down, after that, it's minor investments with regards to robotics and additional (inaudible) to again reduce our reliance on labor as well as increase the quality of the output and therefore, the price of the commodities.

但是一旦你的足跡減少了，在那之後，在機器人技術和額外的（聽不清）方面的小額投資再次減少了我們對勞動力的依賴，並提高了產出的質量，從而提高了商品的價格。

Our next question comes from the line of Kevin Chiang with CIBC.

我們的下一個問題來自 CIBC 的 Kevin Chiang。

Worthing, I just want to clarify something you mentioned in your prepared remarks. I think you said in your a lot of your safety metrics, and I think you said your cost of risk was at the lower year-over-year or trending lower? And I guess when I think of an environment where labor has been tight, so you have more new employees, you've obviously made a lot of acquisitions and typically safety is one of the places you find synergies. Just wondering maybe what's driving this better safety performance maybe relative to those, like perceived headwinds at least on my part?

沃辛，我只是想澄清一下你在準備好的發言中提到的一些事情。我想你在你的很多安全指標中說過，我想你說過你的風險成本是同比下降還是呈下降趨勢？我想當我想到勞動力緊張的環境時，你有更多的新員工，你顯然已經進行了大量收購，通常安全是你找到協同效應的地方之一。只是想知道也許是什麼推動了這種更好的安全性能可能相對於那些，比如至少在我看來是逆風？

Well, again, I think that's a longer story. I mean it's -- we've always talked about our behavioral-based approach to safety where every person is accountable. I mean this is not a safety department's responsibility in this company. And so we reinforce those behaviors, we coach behaviors, and we hold ourselves accountable for continuous improvement.

好吧，我認為這是一個更長的故事。我的意思是——我們一直在談論我們基於行為的安全方法，其中每個人都有責任。我的意思是這不是這家公司安全部門的職責。因此，我們加強這些行為，我們指導行為，並且我們對持續改進負責。

Put simply, you're right when you point out that acquisitions do typically come along at higher incident rates, that's opportunity. It's opportunities, not just financially, but most importantly for the health of our employees and the safety within the communities. I mean that's a paramount importance. It's not uncommon for acquisitions to come to us with incident rates at 4x to 8x our average.

簡而言之，當您指出收購通常以更高的事件發生率出現時，您是對的，這就是機會。這是機會，不僅僅是經濟上的，而且最重要的是我們員工的健康和社區內的安全。我的意思是這是最重要的。以 4 到 8 倍於我們平均水平的事件率來找我們的收購併不少見。

And when we see that, we look at our most improved performers year-over-year. In this past year, our most improved performer was a recent acquisition in the prior year and they were down, what, some 65% or 70% in incident rates in year 1. So it's possible. It's just -- it's about culture, it's about relationships, it's about accountability and it's about owning it.

當我們看到這一點時，我們會查看同比表現最出色的員工。在過去的一年裡，我們表現最好的是前一年最近的一次收購，他們在第一年的事故率下降了大約 65% 或 70%。所以這是可能的。它只是——它關乎文化，關乎人際關係，關乎責任，關乎擁有它。

That's helpful. Just for my second question, maybe going back to something Walter had asked. I think you've talked about this pipeline of opportunities or subset of opportunities kind of $3.5 billion to $4 billion. I think that's been pretty consistent for a number of years now.

這很有幫助。關於我的第二個問題，也許回到沃爾特問過的問題。我想你已經談到了 35 億到 40 億美元的機會管道或機會子集。我認為這多年來一直非常一致。

But it does feel like the underlying solid waste industry has gotten more rational. I think the industry seems to be stronger. Just wondering, does that not play a role in what goes into that pipeline? Like are there markets that 5 years ago weren't attractive because of the way the overall solid waste market was positioned versus here in 2022?

但確實感覺潛在的固體廢物行業變得更加理性。我認為這個行業似乎更強大。只是想知道，這不會在管道中發揮作用嗎？就像 5 年前，由於整體固體廢物市場與 2022 年相比的定位方式，是否存在一些市場沒有吸引力？

Well, it's not that they weren't attractive, it's that the proper way to answer it wasn't available at the time. And so as we move through, like you've seen us do in many new markets these past several years, those new market entries are the beachhead for us to continue our model, right?

好吧，並不是他們沒有吸引力，而是當時沒有正確的回答方式。因此，隨著我們的發展，就像你在過去幾年看到我們在許多新市場所做的那樣，這些新市場進入是我們繼續我們的模式的灘頭陣地，對吧？

And so it's -- just because we're not in a market today, it doesn't mean we may not be in a market in the future. We're just waiting for that right entry point to be available. And so -- that's why the addressable market really hasn't changed too much because while we're very active in what we're executing on, we're actually replacing what we're closing with the opportunities that we now have in those new markets.

所以它 - 僅僅因為我們今天不在市場上，並不意味著我們將來可能不在市場上。我們只是在等待正確的入口點可用。所以——這就是為什麼可尋址市場真的沒有太大變化的原因，因為雖然我們在我們正在執行的事情上非常活躍，但我們實際上正在用我們現在擁有的機會取代我們正在關閉的那些新市場。

Okay. That makes a lot of sense. Congrats on a good quarter.

好的。這很有意義。祝賀一個好的季度。

Our next question comes from the line of Sean Eastman with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Sean Eastman。

Nice, strong finish to the year. I just wanted to come back to the CapEx. So it's helpful to call out exactly what's in there for the sustainability investments. If you pull that out, underlying 11% as a percent of revenue.

不錯，強勁的一年結束。我只想回到資本支出。因此，準確指出可持續性投資的內容是有幫助的。如果你把它拿出來，佔收入的 11%。

How do we think about the go forward? We got a big pipeline of sustainability-linked investment opportunities, does that $100 million ramp into next year? And then is that 11% underlying, sort of, the right way to think about the next couple of years as well? Just some color on the trajectory of those 2 pieces would be great.

我們如何考慮前進？我們獲得了大量與可持續發展相關的投資機會，這 1 億美元是否會進入明年？那麼這 11% 的潛在利率是否也是考慮未來幾年的正確方式？只要在這 2 件作品的軌跡上塗上一些顏色就可以了。

Sure. So first off, with respect to your question about the pipeline of projects, the way to think about it is for those 4 discrete projects that we called out that are unique, as Worthing said, those are 2 unique recycling facilities and 2 of the few R&D facilities that we plan to own are included there. So for next year, in addition to the $100 million we're spending this year, there'll be another about $50 million, we would finish those 4 projects.

當然。所以首先，關於你關於項目管道的問題，考慮它的方式是我們提到的那 4 個獨特的獨立項目，正如 Worthing 所說，那些是 2 個獨特的回收設施和少數幾個中的 2 個我們計劃擁有的研發設施包括在那裡。所以明年，除了我們今年花費的 1 億美元之外，還會有大約 5000 萬美元，我們將完成這 4 個項目。

Beyond that, we're not talking about layering in more as you look ahead. So that's one aspect of the answer. The second would be with respect to what has arguably been some outsized CapEx, we thought that was prudent in '21 to make sure that we were positioning ourselves, given supply chain constraints and any concerns about deliveries to make sure we were positioned to get it, and we talked about that all last year.

除此之外，我們不會在您展望未來時談論更多的分層。所以這是答案的一方面。第二個是關於可以說是一些超大資本支出的問題，我們認為在 21 年是謹慎的，以確保我們定位自己，考慮到供應鏈限制和對交付的任何擔憂，以確保我們有能力獲得它，我們去年一直在談論這個。

And coming into this year, we felt the same way. And so we've positioned ourselves again and those are the numbers we've communicated. As we look further down the road, we would say, think more about a more normalized CapEx as a percentage of revenue back at that 10.5% type of range that you've historically seen us in.

進入今年，我們也有同樣的感覺。因此，我們再次定位自己，這些就是我們傳達的數字。當我們進一步展望未來時，我們會說，更多地考慮更規範化的資本支出佔收入的百分比，回到您在歷史上看到的 10.5% 的範圍內。

Okay. Very helpful. And -- and then I wanted to ask about the E&P upside optionality. It's hard to ignore the leading indicators, which are looking very encouraging, probably prudent to leave that as upside. But is there any other reason other than just prudent conservatism to think that E&P won't have some potentially meaningful uplift over the course of 2022?

好的。很有幫助。而且——然後我想問一下 E&P 的上行選擇性。很難忽視領先指標，這些指標看起來非常令人鼓舞，將其留作上行可能是謹慎的做法。但是，除了謹慎的保守主義之外，是否還有其他理由認為 E&P 在 2022 年期間不會有一些潛在的有意義的提升？

Sure. And we don't disagree, Sean, that there certainly the fundamentals would suggest that there's an opportunity there. And what we typically would say is, look, let's get into the spring because that's when we have better visibility -- because that's when the drillers have better visibility and are communicating that to us.

當然。肖恩，我們並不反對，基本面肯定表明那裡有機會。我們通常會說，看，讓我們進入春天，因為那是我們能見度更高的時候——因為那是鑽探者能見度更高並與我們溝通的時候。

So one additional element, I would say, is that the realities of labor constraints are impacting the drillers as well. And so even though you see rig movement, it doesn't mean that the waste is being -- is generated as quickly as it might otherwise be because people may not be moving as quickly. And so that would be a limiting factor in the near term. But we agree with your characterization of the opportunity as we move through '22.

因此，我想說的另一個因素是，勞動力限制的現實也在影響鑽工。因此，即使您看到鑽井平台移動，也並不意味著廢物產生的速度與原本可能的速度一樣快，因為人們的移動速度可能不會那麼快。因此，這將是近期的一個限制因素。但我們同意您對 22 世紀機遇的描述。

And as you recall, we typically guide to what we see. And so that's why the guidance is what it is. But of course, we acknowledge there should be an opportunity as we move through the year.

正如你所記得的，我們通常會引導我們所看到的。這就是為什麼指南就是這樣的原因。但是，當然，我們承認在我們度過這一年的過程中應該有機會。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Noah Kaye with Oppenheimer.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Noah Kaye 與 Oppenheimer 的對話。

My first one is about investments at the landfill and specifically around leachate management. It seems like we're circling a date for PFAS regulations potentially come down the pike in maybe mid-next year. And if and when that happens, it just seems like it's going to take a huge toll on private and public water treatment infrastructure -- wastewater treatment infrastructure.

我的第一個是關於垃圾填埋場的投資，特別是滲濾液管理方面的投資。似乎我們正在確定 PFAS 法規可能在明年年中下台的日期。如果發生這種情況，當這種情況發生時，它似乎會對私人和公共水處理基礎設施——廢水處理基礎設施造成巨大損失。

So to what extent are you addressing that proactively with some of your investments? Do you think the industry is ready to handle the incremental expenses of leachate disposal? And what might the implications be for landfill pricing?

那麼，您在多大程度上通過您的一些投資主動解決了這個問題？您認為該行業是否已準備好處理滲濾液處理的增量費用？這對垃圾填埋場定價有何影響？

Yes. Well, I can just say on what we're doing because we've been focusing on derisking our exposure to third-party treatment providers for many years now, plus making R&D investments into -- how to address PFAS or H2S emissions at landfills. And so it's -- we like the position we're in right now.

是的。好吧，我只能說說我們正在做的事情，因為多年來我們一直專注於降低我們與第三方處理提供商的風險，並進行研發投資——如何解決垃圾填埋場的 PFAS 或 H2S 排放問題。所以它是 - 我們喜歡我們現在所處的位置。

Clearly, we're investing whether it be in thermal treatment or whether it be in leachate wastewater treatment on-site and those efforts continue. We monitor our progress in what percent we're handling on-site versus third parties. Look, you got to remember that landfills are the regulated capsule to contain PFAS. And so this is an opportunity for us and how we treat this less of a risk.

顯然，無論是熱處理還是現場滲濾液廢水處理，我們都在投資，並且這些努力仍在繼續。我們監控我們在現場處理與第三方處理的百分比方面的進展。看，你必須記住，垃圾填埋場是含有 PFAS 的受管製膠囊。因此，這對我們來說是一個機會，也是我們如何減少風險的方式。

But you're right to point out that the wastewater treatment plants, that's where there is a much bigger focus, and it is a bigger, more complicated issue for utilities.

但你指出污水處理廠是一個更大的關注點，對公用事業來說這是一個更大、更複雜的問題。

Okay. And the second one is just around the subjects of labor and automation. Clearly, this is a people-first business, you continue to invest in your front line employees. Obviously, some industry players have been talking about automation as a lever to really optimize operations and potentially even drive natural attrition in the labor force.

好的。第二個是關於勞動和自動化的主題。顯然，這是一個以人為本的企業，你繼續投資於你的一線員工。顯然，一些行業參與者一直在談論自動化作為真正優化運營甚至可能推動勞動力自然流失的槓桿。

And I just love your perspective on that, to what extent do you see automation as a further tool for optimizing your labor costs? Where are you investing? And how would you frame it from the way Waste Connections is approaching it?

我很喜歡你對此的看法，你在多大程度上將自動化視為優化勞動力成本的進一步工具？你在哪裡投資？你會如何從 Waste Connections 接近它的方式來構建它？

Sure. Look, it's just called running a good business. We don't talk about what might happen and therefore, have -- you have expectations and kind of look to the future for something that may or may not be delivered upon.

當然。你看，這才叫經營好生意。我們不會談論可能發生的事情，因此，您對未來可能會或可能不會交付的事情抱有期望和展望。

Look, our view is, as you know, we've already been proactive on robotics to reduce the labor headcounts at recycling facilities, those investments will continue. You got to remember as good things happen, there's always puts and takes, right, in every P&L and in market by market. And so I don't view this as a layer of (inaudible) taking thousands of employees out and representing ourselves in a whole different view.

聽著，我們的觀點是，如你所知，我們已經積極採用機器人技術來減少回收設施的勞動力人數，這些投資將繼續下去。你必須記住，當好事發生時，在每個損益表中和逐個市場中總會有看跌期權。因此，我不認為這是一層（聽不清）讓成千上萬的員工離開並以完全不同的觀點代表我們自己。

The reality is you chip away and you run a better operation. You try to reduce your reliance on labor in a tough environment. But it's -- I wouldn't hang out hope for something that may sound good, but may be more difficult to deliver upon.

現實情況是，你籌碼少了，你的運營就更好了。您試圖在艱苦的環境中減少對勞動力的依賴。但它——我不會對聽起來不錯但可能更難實現的事情抱有希望。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Hoffman with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Michael Hoffman 與 Stifel 的對話。

Congratulations on 25 years. It's been a pretty cool run. I got a bunch of questions that are about the model, not in any particular order, rising rates in the business model, and it's not about as your interest expense going up or down. What do you think about rising rates as operating a garbage company and some of the issues, but the consequences of rates going up?

祝賀你 25 歲。這是一個非常酷的運行。我有一堆關於模型的問題，沒有任何特定的順序，商業模型的利率上升，這與你的利息支出上升或下降無關。您如何看待運營一家垃圾公司的利率上升以及一些問題，但利率上升的後果是什麼？

Well, I'd say from our perspective, since the majority of our debt is fixed, and our average -- our weighted average interest expense is around 3%, even with a modest increase, but I don't think it moves the needle. And I think what you should expect is to the extent we take on more debt, we look for opportunities to fix more because we can still consider this an attractive environment in spite of the fact that rates are up.

好吧，我想說，從我們的角度來看，由於我們的大部分債務是固定的，而且我們的平均 - 我們的加權平均利息支出約為 3%，即使略有增加，但我認為這不會改變現狀.而且我認為你應該期待的是我們承擔更多債務的程度，我們尋找機會來解決更多問題，因為儘管利率上升，我們仍然可以認為這是一個有吸引力的環境。

Perhaps for other people who've relied on the low cost of debt to be more aggressive with respect to acquisitions or other decisions they've made, I think it would have a bigger impact. But again, that's not us.

也許對於那些依賴低成本債務的人來說，在收購或做出其他決定時更加積極，我認為這會產生更大的影響。但同樣，那不是我們。

Yes. But a way from interest expense, as you say, Michael, I mean if the view is to increase interest rates to kind of dislocate this economy and potentially have a recession on the horizon, this industry does very well in a recession.

是的。但從利息支出的角度來看，正如你所說，邁克爾，我的意思是，如果觀點是提高利率以擾亂經濟並可能出現衰退，那麼這個行業在衰退中表現非常好。

I mean as we all know, it's a very resilient industry. In fact, the recession, if it dislocates the labor force and puts -- increases our available pool of labor makes us an easier business to operate. Again, you look back over time, we performed quite well in recessions, whether it be the early 2000s, late 2000s, et cetera. It's an industry that does well. And for us, it's a market model that allows for that continued differentiation.

我的意思是，眾所周知，這是一個非常有彈性的行業。事實上，經濟衰退，如果它使勞動力錯位並增加我們可用的勞動力資源，使我們的企業更容易經營。再一次，你回顧過去，我們在經濟衰退中表現得很好，無論是在 2000 年代初、2000 年代後期等等。這是一個做得很好的行業。對我們來說，這是一個允許持續差異化的市場模型。

Perfect. And then Mary Anne, I was writing numbers down so fast. You may have said it and I missed it. Did you give an interest expense for the full year? You gave it for the first quarter. But did you give interest expense for the first -- for '22?

完美的。然後是 Mary Anne，我寫下數字的速度非常快。你可能已經說過了，但我錯過了。你有沒有給出全年的利息支出？你給了第一季度。但是你有沒有給第一個——22 年的利息支出？

It's about $160 million.

大約是1.6億美元。

$160 million. Okay, I missed that. And then I appreciate -- and you've been very clear, you're going to walk away from bad business and therefore, don't freak out if volumes are negative or 0. Can you give us the cadence of when I'm seeing that? Because I think it feels like I'm probably negative in the first half and positive in the second half and the second half reflects what's actually happening in the market on a go-forward basis.

1.6 億美元。好吧，我錯過了。然後我很感激——你已經非常清楚，你將擺脫糟糕的業務，因此，如果交易量為負或 0，請不要驚慌。你能告訴我們我什麼時候的節奏嗎看見那個？因為我覺得我感覺上半場可能是負面的，下半場是正面的，而下半場反映了市場在前進的基礎上實際發生的事情。

You're talking about with respect to the 2 contracts that went away, one went in Q4 and one in Q1. So it's pretty steady, a little bit lower in 1 and 4, higher in 2 and 3, 80 basis points across the 4 quarters.

你說的是關於消失的兩份合同，一份在第四季度，一份在第一季度。所以它非常穩定，在 1 和 4 中略低，在 2 和 3 中更高，4 個季度中有 80 個基點。

Okay. So being negative in 1 and negative to flat in 2 and then slightly positive to more positive is sort of the way to think about it.

好的。因此，在 1 中為負，在 2 中為負到持平，然後稍微正到更正是一種思考方式。

Or it could be positive in 1 and would have been more positive without the losses, so no, look, we think of this environment right now as kind of an underlying 1%-plus environment. And so then you factor out that 80 basis points, and it gives you a sense of what might be reported. Obviously, if we do better than 1%, that layers on top of that.

或者它在 1 中可能是積極的，如果沒有損失會更積極，所以不，看，我們現在認為這種環境是一種潛在的 1% 以上的環境。然後你將這 80 個基點分解出來，它讓你了解可能報告的內容。顯然，如果我們做得好於 1%，那就是最重要的。

Got it. And then you've shared your internal cost of inflation, which is predominantly a wage issue in addition to the capital issue. Where are you on open positions and sort of a trend in actually being able to fill positions?

知道了。然後你分享了通貨膨脹的內部成本，除了資本問題之外，這主要是工資問題。您在空缺職位上的位置以及實際能夠填補職位的趨勢是什麼？

No. I wouldn't say it's just a wage and CapEx issue. First off, I'd say the wages were very proactive last year, going all the way back to the first half of last year when we started picking those up notably, just in anticipation of what was going to come in the remainder of the year. And so we do start to anniversary some of those as we work through the first half of this year.

不，我不會說這只是工資和資本支出問題。首先，我想說去年的工資非常積極，一直追溯到去年上半年，當時我們開始顯著增加工資，只是因為預計今年剩餘時間會發生什麼.因此，在我們今年上半年的工作中，我們確實開始紀念其中的一些。

But there are all sorts of pressures out there, whether it be pressures around repair and maintenance, pressures around third-party trucking availability, because they have the same wage -- excuse me, the same wage and labor availability issues that we all do. Yet the waste still has to move from the T-stations to the landfills, right?

但是那裡有各種各樣的壓力，無論是維修和維護方面的壓力，還是第三方卡車運輸可用性方面的壓力，因為他們有相同的工資 - 對不起，我們都遇到相同的工資和勞動力可用性問題。然而，垃圾仍然必須從 T 站轉移到垃圾填埋場，對嗎？

And so there are many line items that pop. And our belief right now is the underlying is at least 6%. And as we move through the year, as Mary Anne said, if we think that pressure for the full year this could be higher than that, you'll see a step up, as I alluded to, maybe pricing approaches 7% because of that.

因此，有很多訂單項會彈出。我們現在的信念是，底層資產至少為 6%。正如 Mary Anne 所說，隨著這一年的推移，如果我們認為全年的壓力可能比這更高，你會看到一個台階，正如我提到的那樣，定價可能因此接近 7% .

Okay. And then open positions? Have you -- are you finding that -- you're being able to find people now a little bit easier that you had the worst of it was sort of in early 3Q, and it's gotten a little bit better? Or is it still at the same high level of open positions?

好的。然後開倉？你有沒有 - 你是否發現 - 你現在能夠更容易地找到人，而你在第三季度初遇到了最糟糕的情況，而且情況有所好轉？還是持倉量仍處於同一高位？

Yes. I mean we're still running at that 5% or so of open positions. And when you spread across so many operating locations, running in that 4% to 5% is not unexpected. I'd say we were stressed, obviously, in many locations with Omicron as, at some point of the time, over 1,000 employees were affected or impacted by that in some ways. And those that were able to show up, there was extra pressure to get the work done, which is why we do -- we did in the month of January.

是的。我的意思是我們仍然在 5% 左右的未平倉頭寸上運行。當您分佈在如此多的運營地點時，在 4% 到 5% 的範圍內運行並不意外。我想說的是，很明顯，在 Omicron 的許多地方，我們都感到壓力，因為在某個時間點，超過 1,000 名員工在某些方面受到影響或受到影響。那些能夠出現的人，完成工作有額外的壓力，這就是我們這樣做的原因——我們在 1 月份這樣做了。

I think the [tailwind] sign really is going to be is how do you get through the spring, because obviously, the spring is where you start getting the pressures. And so it's -- right now, we like where we stand. But obviously, we'd love to make some inroads in that and put some more seats in the trucks.

我認為 [順風] 標誌真的是你如何度過春天，因為很明顯，春天是你開始承受壓力的地方。所以它 - 現在，我們喜歡我們的立場。但顯然，我們很樂意在這方面取得一些進展，並在卡車上增加一些座位。

Okay. And then this is down in the weeds a bit. But there's a change in political party in the Seneca area where your landfill is and you're trying to get a host fee, a community host fee agreement. Do you change your handicapping on that now given what happened in November?

好的。然後這是雜草中的一點。但是在你的垃圾填埋場所在的塞內卡地區，政黨發生了變化，你正試圖獲得一筆託管費，一項社區託管費協議。鑑於 11 月發生的事情，您現在是否會改變您的障礙？

Look, it's -- we don't control the outcome. And so we'll just let time play out and determine where that heads.

看，這是——我們無法控制結果。因此，我們將讓時間流逝並確定其發展方向。

Okay. And then last, did I hear you correctly, so you spent $425 million on a share buyback in January. And so that's like 3.25 million shares?

好的。最後，我沒聽錯嗎，你在 1 月份花費了 4.25 億美元用於股票回購。所以這就像 325 萬股？

That's right. And that's why we gave you a share count of what, 2.59, for the full year.

這是正確的。這就是為什麼我們為您提供了全年 2.59 股的原因。

That's right, yes. So (inaudible) point.

沒錯，是的。所以（聽不清）點。

Our last question comes from the line of Chris Murray with ATB Capital Markets.

我們的最後一個問題來自 ATB Capital Markets 的 Chris Murray。

Just a quick question going back to the inflation question. So if we were to think about the fact that maybe there's a chance that we could see some moderation on some of the inflation pressures as we go into the second half of the year. Can you just get back to the understanding the mechanics of inflation, is it fair to think that all the pricing that you'll all have been putting in and the stuff you've got in your captive markets, like that's going to be sticky. Those increases will be on an annualized basis. So that really leads to your comment about, perhaps, some margin improvement on the back half if inflation moderates?

只是一個快速的問題回到通貨膨脹問題。因此，如果我們考慮這樣一個事實，即在我們進入今年下半年時，我們可能會看到一些通脹壓力有所緩和。你能不能回到對通貨膨脹機制的理解，是否公平地認為你們所有人都投入的所有定價以及你在專屬市場中擁有的東西，就像那樣會很粘。這些增長將按年計算。因此，這真的導致您評論說，如果通脹緩和，後半部分的利潤率可能會有所改善？

Right. I mean what we're saying moderation is upside, not what it takes to produce the wish for second half recovery.

正確的。我的意思是我們所說的適度是有利的，而不是產生下半年復甦的願望所需要的。

That's right. And just, Chris, to your point, we put in the majority of our price increases early in the year, to the extent their CPI length, that's where there's the lag. So those are known numbers for '22. To the extent that were to happen, it could impact on '23 for those because where we sit now, it only gets better in '23 because of the inflationary pressures we've seen in terms of pricing.

這是正確的。就你的觀點而言，克里斯，我們在今年年初將大部分價格上漲，在他們的 CPI 長度的範圍內，這就是滯後的地方。所以這些是 22 年的已知數字。就發生這種情況而言，它可能會影響那些人的 23 年，因為我們現在所處的位置，由於我們在定價方面看到的通脹壓力，它只會在 23 年變得更好。

All right. No, that's fair. I just want to make sure that there wasn't something that reverses back out on you. And then my last question very quickly is just around the base dividend. Worthing, you made the comment a few times that the idea was as you were growing, the dividend would probably outgrow the pace of your cash flow generation. But in the last couple of years now, we've seen cash flow when we look at your '22 guide. Certainly, this year, it looks like it's going to be pretty strong as well to now you're kind of outstripping the growth in the base dividend.

好的。不，這很公平。我只是想確保沒有什麼東西可以逆轉你。然後我的最後一個問題很快就是關於基本股息的。 Worthing，你曾多次評論說，隨著你的成長，股息的增長速度可能會超過你產生現金流的速度。但在過去幾年中，當我們查看您的 22 年指南時，我們已經看到了現金流。當然，今年看起來它也會非常強勁，現在你有點超過基本股息的增長。

I appreciate that you're also supplementing that with some share buybacks. But -- how do we think about that base dividend in terms of growth? I think Hamzah asked a question about a special. But just going back to the base dividend and where you see that longer term? And do you start trying to grow that at above cash flow in the future?

我很感激您還通過一些股票回購來補充這一點。但是——我們如何看待增長方面的基本紅利？我想 Hamzah 問了一個關於特別節目的問題。但是回到基本股息，你在哪裡看到長期？你是否開始嘗試在未來以高於現金流的速度增長它？

So a couple of observations, Chris. First of all, it has been about a 15% CAGR since we initiated the dividend 11 years ago. So we have consistently raised it double digits. And we do anticipate that when the outsized acquisition slows down as a percentage of our total free cash flow, that will grow from that 20% to 22% where it is now and we could see that growing to more like 30% of free cash flow.

所以有幾個觀察，克里斯。首先，自我們 11 年前開始分紅以來，複合年增長率約為 15%。所以我們一直把它提高到兩位數。我們確實預計，當大規模收購占我們總自由現金流的百分比放緩時，它將從現在的 20% 增長到 22%，我們可以看到增長到自由現金流的 30% 以上.

The other observation would be in a year like this, 2021, we actually doubled the return of capital to shareholders from the prior year between our share repurchases and the continued growth in the dividend. And coming into this year, having already done share repurchases and being well positioned for continued growth in the dividend, you should expect something comparable.

另一個觀察結果是，在這樣的一年中，即 2021 年，在我們的股票回購和股息持續增長之間，我們實際上將股東的資本回報率翻了一番。進入今年，已經完成股票回購併為股息的持續增長做好準備，你應該期待類似的東西。

Thank you. Mr. Jackman, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to you. Please continue with your presentation or closing remarks.

謝謝。傑克曼先生，現在沒有其他問題了。我現在將電話轉回給您。請繼續您的演講或結束語。

Well, if there are no further questions, on behalf of our entire management team, we appreciate your listening to and interest in the call today. Mary Anne and Joe Box are available today to answer any direct questions that we did not cover that we're allowed to answer under Reg FD, Reg G and applicable securities laws in Canada.

好吧，如果沒有其他問題，我們代表我們整個管理團隊感謝您今天的電話會議的聆聽和興趣。 Mary Anne 和 Joe Box 今天可以回答任何我們沒有涵蓋但根據 Reg FD、Reg G 和加拿大適用的證券法允許我們回答的直接問題。

Thank you, again, and we look forward to seeing you at upcoming investor conferences or on our next earnings call.

再次感謝您，我們期待在即將舉行的投資者會議或我們的下一次財報電話會議上見到您。

Thank you. That does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your lines.

謝謝。這確實結束了今天的電話會議。我們感謝您的參與，並請您斷開您的線路。