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Operator
Operator
Good morning and welcome to the Waste Connections, Inc. Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). Please note, this event is being recorded.
早上好,歡迎參加 Waste Connections, Inc. 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。 (操作員說明)。請注意,此事件正在被記錄。
I would now like to turn the conference over to Ron Mittelstaedt, President and CEO. Please go ahead.
現在我想將會議交給總裁兼首席執行官羅恩·米特爾施塔特 (Ron Mittelstaedt)。請繼續。
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Okay. Thank you, operator, and good morning. I would like to welcome everyone to this conference call to discuss our second quarter results and updated outlook for 2023 as well as to provide a detailed outlook for the third quarter. I'm joined this morning by Mary Anne Whitney, our CFO. I'm also joined by Joe Box, our recently promoted Vice President of Investor Relations. Congratulations, Joe.
好的。謝謝您,接線員,早上好。我謹歡迎大家參加這次電話會議,討論我們第二季度的業績和 2023 年的最新展望,並提供第三季度的詳細展望。今天早上我們的首席財務官瑪麗·安妮·惠特尼 (Mary Anne Whitney) 也加入了我的行列。我們最近晉升的投資者關係副總裁 Joe Box 也加入了我的行列。恭喜,喬。
As noted in our earnings release, we are extremely pleased by the strength of our operational execution during the quarter for a solid beat on revenue and adjusted EBITDA to deliver margins 30 basis points above our outlook. Solid waste core pricing growth of 9.8% positioned us to expand underlying solid waste collection, transfer and disposal margins by 100 basis points in the period, largely overcoming the ongoing headwinds from year-over-year declines in recovered commodity values and continued inflationary pressures during the period.
正如我們在財報中所指出的,我們對本季度運營執行力的強勁表現感到非常高興,收入和調整後 EBITDA 均實現強勁增長,利潤率比我們的預期高出 30 個基點。固體廢物核心定價增長9.8%,使我們能夠在此期間將基礎固體廢物收集、轉移和處置利潤率擴大100 個基點,很大程度上克服了回收商品價值同比下降和持續通脹壓力帶來的持續阻力。時期。
Our performance in the first half of 2023, along with recent acquisitions and reduced headwinds from fuel and other commodity-related impacts positions us to increase our full year outlook for adjusted EBITDA to approximately $2.525 billion, expanding our adjusted EBITDA margin to 31.5% for the full year up 40 basis points from our initial outlook and up 70 basis points as compared to the prior year.
我們在2023 年上半年的業績,加上最近的收購以及燃料和其他大宗商品相關影響帶來的阻力的減少,使我們能夠將調整後EBITDA 的全年預期提高至約25.25 億美元,將調整後EBITDA 利潤率擴大至31.5%全年較我們最初的預期上調 40 個基點,較上年上調 70 個基點。
Most importantly, we are encouraged by improving trends in safety and employee retention as we doubled down on human capital in our decentralized operating model, including through the realignment of our organizational structure with the addition of a sixth region and refinements to our corporate operational structure. We look forward to driving outsized margin expansion in the second half of 2023 and into 2024.
最重要的是,隨著我們在去中心化運營模式中加倍投入人力資本,包括通過調整我們的組織結構、增加第六個區域以及完善我們的公司運營結構,安全和員工保留率的改善趨勢令我們感到鼓舞。我們期待在 2023 年下半年和 2024 年推動利潤率大幅擴張。
Before we get into much more detail, let me turn the call over to Mary Anne for our forward-looking disclaimer and other housekeeping items.
在我們詳細介紹之前,請允許我將電話轉給瑪麗·安妮,以獲取我們的前瞻性免責聲明和其他內務事項。
Mary Anne Whitney - Executive VP & CFO
Mary Anne Whitney - Executive VP & CFO
Thank you, Ron, and good morning. The discussion during today's call includes forward-looking statements made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable Canadian Securities Laws.
謝謝你,羅恩,早上好。今天電話會議的討論包括根據 1995 年美國私人證券訴訟改革法案的安全港條款做出的前瞻性陳述,包括適用的加拿大證券法含義內的前瞻性信息。
Actual results could differ materially from those made in such forward-looking statements due to various risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause actual results to differ are discussed both in the cautionary statement in our August 2 earnings release and in greater detail in Waste Connections filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the securities commissions of similar regulatory authorities in Canada.
由於各種風險和不確定性,實際結果可能與此類前瞻性陳述中的結果存在重大差異。我們 8 月 2 日收益報告中的警告聲明以及向美國證券交易委員會和加拿大類似監管機構的證券委員會提交的 Waste Connections 文件中更詳細地討論了可能導致實際結果不同的因素。
You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements as there may be additional risks of which we are not presently aware or that we currently believe are immaterial, which could have an adverse impact on our business. We make no commitment to revise or update any forward-looking statements in order to reflect events or circumstances that may change after today's date.
您不應過分依賴前瞻性陳述,因為可能存在我們目前尚未意識到或我們目前認為不重要的其他風險,這可能對我們的業務產生不利影響。我們不承諾修改或更新任何前瞻性陳述以反映今天之後可能發生變化的事件或情況。
On the call, we will discuss non-GAAP measures such as adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income attributable to Waste Connections on both a dollar basis and per diluted share and adjusted free cash flow. Please refer to our earnings releases for a reconciliation of such non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measures. Management uses certain non-GAAP measures to evaluate and monitor the ongoing financial performance of our operations. Other companies may calculate these non-GAAP measures differently.
在電話會議上,我們將討論非公認會計原則措施,例如調整後的 EBITDA、調整後歸屬於 Waste Connections 的淨利潤(以美元為基礎和稀釋每股收益)以及調整後的自由現金流。請參閱我們的收益發布,了解此類非 GAAP 指標與最具可比性 GAAP 指標的對賬情況。管理層使用某些非公認會計原則衡量標準來評估和監控我們運營的持續財務業績。其他公司可能會以不同的方式計算這些非公認會計準則指標。
I will now turn the call back over to Ron.
我現在將把電話轉回給羅恩。
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Okay. Thank you, Mary Anne. Looking at Q2, our results began with price-led organic solid waste growth from core price of 9.8%, ranging from over 7% in our mostly exclusive market, Western region to between 9% and 12% in our competitive regions.
好的。謝謝你,瑪麗·安妮。從第二季度來看,我們的業績始於價格主導的有機固體廢物增長,核心價格為 9.8%,範圍從我們主要獨家市場西部地區的 7% 以上到我們競爭地區的 9% 至 12%。
Total price of 9.1% includes a 70 basis point decline in fuel and material surcharges, reflecting lower diesel prices in the quarter as projected. Reported volume growth of negative 1.9% and reflects a degree of intentional shedding of lesser quality accounts and purposeful nonrenewals of certain municipal contracts, including in some cases, at recently acquired operations, where we've identified opportunities for improving revenue quality. We consider this pruning to be integral to our disciplined approach to growth and typical of the opportunities for margin improvement we see in acquisitions. Given the number of acquisitions over the past few years, this was fully anticipated.
9.1% 的總價格包括燃料和材料附加費下降 70 個基點,反映了本季度柴油價格的下降(如預期)。報告的銷量增長為負1.9%,反映了一定程度的故意剝離質量較差的客戶以及故意不續簽某些市政合同,包括在某些情況下,在最近收購的業務中,我們發現了提高收入質量的機會。我們認為這種修剪是我們嚴格的增長方法的一部分,也是我們在收購中看到的典型的利潤率改善機會。考慮到過去幾年的收購數量,這是完全可以預料到的。
Our volumes also reflect a muted seasonal ramp in activity levels as we had anticipated, impacting collection, transfer and disposal volumes, most notably special waste tons, a good barometer of the more cyclical and event-driven aspects of the business were down 7% year-over-year on reduced or delayed project activity across most regions. However, in July, special waste volumes were up 9% year-over-year. A reminder of how lumpy these project volumes can be and why it's tough to generalize about broader volume trends based on improvements in special waste or other event business.
正如我們預期的那樣,我們的處理量也反映了活動水平的季節性溫和增長,影響了收集、轉移和處置量,尤其是特殊廢物噸數,這是業務週期性和事件驅動方面的良好晴雨表,同比下降了7% - 大多數地區的項目活動減少或推遲。然而,7月份特殊垃圾量同比增長9%。提醒人們,這些項目的數量可能是多麼不穩定,以及為什麼很難根據特殊廢物或其他活動業務的改進來概括更廣泛的數量趨勢。
Lastly, consistent with a constructive trade-off between price and volume we've described in prior periods, we're making a conscious choice of up to 1 point of volume reduction to achieve our price objectives. We're very comfortable with the trade-off and our improving EBITDA margins reflect the benefit.
最後,與我們在前幾期中描述的價格和銷量之間的建設性權衡一致,我們有意識地選擇將銷量減少最多 1 個百分點,以實現我們的價格目標。我們對這種權衡非常滿意,我們不斷提高的 EBITDA 利潤率也反映了這種好處。
Looking next at Q2 revenues from recovered commodities, that is recycled commodities, landfill gas and renewable energy credits, or RINs. Excluding acquisitions, collectively, they were down about 40% and year-over-year due to tough comparisons for values of both recycled commodities and RINs. OCC, or old corrugated containers, averaged about $75 per ton and RINs averaged about $2.15 in Q2, starting lower and jumping to over $3 late in the quarter in response to a favorable EPA ruling establishing renewable volume obligations.
接下來看看第二季度回收商品的收入,即回收商品、垃圾填埋氣和可再生能源信用額(RIN)。由於對回收商品和 RIN 的價值進行嚴格比較,不包括收購,總體而言,它們同比下降了約 40%。第二季度,OCC(即舊瓦楞紙箱)平均每噸約為75 美元,RIN 平均約為每噸2.15 美元,開始走低,並在本季度末躍升至3 美元以上,以響應EPA 制定可再生能源數量義務的有利裁決。
We are encouraged by the EPA ruling given our portfolio of renewable natural gas facilities under development, which remains on track to deliver the projected $200 million in incremental annual EBITDA by 2026 from over a dozen RNG projects with a range of ownership structures. Those benefits begin later this year when 3 facilities are expected to be operational and should ramp in 2024, when we are projecting the majority to capital expenditures. Beyond these projects, we continuously evaluate additional opportunities, including as we complete acquisitions.
鑑於我們正在開發的可再生天然氣設施組合,我們對EPA 的裁決感到鼓舞,這些設施仍有望在2026 年之前從十多個具有一系列所有權結構的RNG 項目中實現預計2 億美元的年度EBITDA 增量。這些效益將於今年晚些時候開始,屆時 3 個設施預計將投入運營,並應在 2024 年逐步增加,屆時我們預計大部分將用於資本支出。除了這些項目之外,我們還不斷評估其他機會,包括在完成收購時。
Moving on to the subject of acquisitions. We recently closed on Arrowhead Environmental, a $100 million revenue integrated transportation and disposal network with rail access from multiple transfer locations on the East Coast to Arrowhead landfill in Alabama. Operating locations include transload facilities in Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey and Florida, all of which feed into Arrowhead, a 1,400-acre MSW landfill serviced directly by rail. This important strategic addition provides enhanced internalization opportunities to our operations across the Northeast and has the potential both to reshape existing markets and to expand acquisition opportunities, given the internalization benefits afforded by leveraging this strategic disposal asset. In time, we expect this will be one of our most strategic assets in the company.
繼續討論收購主題。我們最近關閉了 Arrowhead Environmental,這是一個收入達 1 億美元的綜合運輸和處置網絡,有鐵路從東海岸的多個轉運地點通往阿拉巴馬州的 Arrowhead 垃圾填埋場。運營地點包括康涅狄格州、馬薩諸塞州、新澤西州和佛羅里達州的轉運設施,所有這些轉運設施均進入 Arrowhead,這是一個佔地 1,400 英畝的城市固體垃圾填埋場,直接通過鐵路提供服務。這一重要的戰略補充為我們在東北地區的業務提供了增強的內部化機會,並且考慮到利用這一戰略處置資產所帶來的內部化效益,有可能重塑現有市場並擴大收購機會。隨著時間的推移,我們預計這將成為我們公司最具戰略意義的資產之一。
This year is on track to once again be what we consider above average in terms of activity as we have already closed acquisitions with over $160 million in annualized revenue. In addition, dialogue remains very active with a robust pipeline, all in solid ways, setting up the potential for additional rollover contribution into 2024 for many acquisitions completed later this year.
今年的活動有望再次高於平均水平,因為我們已經完成了年收入超過 1.6 億美元的收購。此外,對話仍然非常活躍,有一個強大的管道,所有這些都以可靠的方式進行,為今年晚些時候完成的許多收購提供了到 2024 年額外展期貢獻的潛力。
Our focus remains, as always, on value creation and replicating the success achieved over 25 years through disciplined capital allocation and consistency in market selection along with an intentional culture. In short, there is no change to our strategy. Our decentralized operating philosophy has been and continues to be a point of differentiation for Waste Connections along with our servant leadership oriented culture.
我們一如既往地關注價值創造,並通過嚴格的資本配置、市場選擇的一致性以及刻意的文化來複製 25 年來所取得的成功。簡而言之,我們的策略沒有改變。我們的分散式運營理念以及我們以僕人式領導為導向的文化一直並將繼續成為 Waste Connections 的差異化點。
To that end, we made a number of changes to reinforce this approach, both in the field and within our corporate operational organization serving the field. Among other things, we completed our segment realignment to accommodate continued growth across our footprint and maintain our field-focused decentralized approach to decision-making and implementation.
為此,我們在現場和服務於該領域的企業運營組織內進行了一系列變革,以強化這種方法。除此之外,我們完成了部門重組,以適應我們業務範圍的持續增長,並保持我們以領域為中心的分散決策和實施方法。
We expanded our regional structure through the addition of a fifth U.S. region, we're calling the Mid-South. This serves to accommodate the growth we have enjoyed over the past several years, a portion of which was heavily concentrated in the Eastern U.S. including our just announced acquisition of Arrowhead. With the addition of a regional office infrastructure in Charlotte, North Carolina, our region leadership team is well positioned to maintain the relationships with local operations which we believe ultimately drive the results in our model. Moreover, this additional bandwidth sets us up for continued growth across our footprint as we look ahead to revenue of $10 billion and more.
我們通過增加第五個美國地區(我們稱之為中南部)來擴大我們的地區結構。這有助於適應我們在過去幾年中所享受的增長,其中一部分主要集中在美國東部,包括我們剛剛宣布的對 Arrowhead 的收購。隨著在北卡羅來納州夏洛特增設區域辦事處基礎設施,我們的區域領導團隊能夠很好地維持與當地運營商的關係,我們相信這最終會推動我們模型的結果。此外,隨著我們預計收入將達到 100 億美元甚至更多,這種額外的帶寬將為我們的業務範圍持續增長奠定基礎。
To that end, we also implemented leadership changes with an emphasis on coaching and developing our next generation of leaders as we position ourselves for the future. In conjunction with a purposeful evaluation of corporate resources to serve the field, we made some changes to the roles of certain of our long-tenured senior regional leaders to broaden their experiences and perspectives. While not necessarily significant from an outsider's point of view, these changes are expected to be impactful internally as they will influence the next generation of leaders to drive operating and financial results.
為此,我們還實施了領導層變革,重點是指導和培養下一代領導者,為我們的未來做好定位。在對服務於該領域的企業資源進行有目的地評估的同時,我們對某些長期任職的高級區域領導者的角色進行了一些改變,以拓寬他們的經驗和視角。雖然從局外人的角度來看不一定意義重大,但這些變化預計會對內部產生影響,因為它們將影響下一代領導者以推動運營和財務業績。
These changes are also designed to streamline decision-making to support the field in two ways: First, to further enhance local autonomy on operational matters as appropriate; and second, to prioritize resource utilization from corporate support directed towards the achievement of the local objectives. We have always maintained that this is a local business and regardless of our size, we are committed to ensuring that we are set up to manage it that way as we believe human capital is critical to our success.
這些變化還旨在簡化決策,以兩種方式支持該領域:第一,酌情進一步增強地方在業務事項上的自主權;其次,優先利用公司支持的資源來實現當地目標。我們始終認為,這是一家本地企業,無論我們的規模如何,我們都致力於確保我們能夠以這種方式進行管理,因為我們相信人力資本對我們的成功至關重要。
To that end, we are also focused on addressing the challenges of employee retention and what we still see is a tight labor environment. As noted earlier, we are encouraged by the progress we have seen year-to-date with voluntary turnover levels down 15% and open head count requisitions down 25% from the peak seen during '22 and early '23, and we look forward to driving further improvements through a variety of approaches.
為此,我們還致力於解決員工保留方面的挑戰,但我們仍然看到勞動力環境緊張。如前所述,我們對今年迄今為止所取得的進展感到鼓舞,與 22 年和 23 年初的峰值相比,自願離職率下降了 15%,開放人員數量申請下降了 25%,我們期待通過多種方式推動進一步改進。
We're adding resources, expanding our use of technology, and we're exploring alternative approaches to improving the flow of qualified candidates, including through driver and technician training facilities in which we have ownership interests or other involvement. Given the high correlation between retention and safety, we're mindful of the potential to accelerate improvements and safety incident rates along with retention.
我們正在增加資源,擴大技術的使用,並且正在探索改善合格候選人流動的替代方法,包括通過我們擁有所有權權益或其他參與的駕駛員和技術人員培訓設施。鑑於保留率和安全性之間的高度相關性,我們注意到在保留率的同時加速改進和安全事故率的潛力。
We're also leveraging the recent investments we made in updated camera technology and telematics to drive continuous improvement in safety and customer service, including at our newest acquisitions where the opportunities are the greatest.
我們還利用最近在更新的攝像頭技術和遠程信息處理方面進行的投資來推動安全和客戶服務的持續改進,包括在機會最大的最新收購中。
And now I'd like to pass the call to Mary Anne to review more in depth the financial highlights of the second quarter and our increased outlook for 2023 and to provide a detailed outlook for Q3. I will then wrap up before heading into Q&A.
現在,我想轉達瑪麗·安妮 (Mary Anne) 的電話,讓她更深入地回顧第二季度的財務亮點和我們對 2023 年的展望,並提供第三季度的詳細展望。然後我將在進入問答環節之前進行總結。
Mary Anne Whitney - Executive VP & CFO
Mary Anne Whitney - Executive VP & CFO
Thank you, Ron. In the second quarter, revenue of $2.021 billion was $21 million above our outlook and up $205 million or 11.3% year-over-year. Acquisitions completed since the year ago period contributed about $122 million of revenue in the quarter or about $121 million net of divestitures. As Ron noted, core pricing was 9.8% in Q2 with the vast majority of pricing done for the year. As we've described in prior quarters, total pricing stepped down on a reported basis over the course of the year, as a result of the combined impact of negative fuel surcharges from improving diesel costs, the anniversarying of outsized price increases in 2022 and the typical cadence of seasonality on reported price.
謝謝你,羅恩。第二季度收入為 20.21 億美元,比我們的預期高出 2100 萬美元,同比增長 2.05 億美元,即 11.3%。自去年同期以來完成的收購為本季度貢獻了約 1.22 億美元的收入,扣除資產剝離後的收入約為 1.21 億美元。正如 Ron 指出的那樣,第二季度的核心定價為 9.8%,其中絕大多數定價是在今年完成的。正如我們在前幾個季度中所描述的,由於柴油成本改善帶來的負燃油附加費、2022 年價格大幅上漲以及報告價格的典型季節性節奏。
With respect to volumes, Ron already described the dynamics and the key drivers. Here are the steps looking at year-over-year results on a same-store basis. Commercial revenue was up about 10%, on pricing up about 11%. Daily roll-off pulls were up nominally, on rates per pull up about 7%, and landfill tons were down nominally on flattish MSW tons with special waste tons down 7%, as noted, and C&D tons up about 7%.
關於銷量,羅恩已經描述了動態和關鍵驅動因素。以下是查看同店同比業績的步驟。商業收入增長約 10%,價格上漲約 11%。每日滾卸量名義上有所增加,每次拉量上漲約7%,垃圾填埋噸數名義上與持平的城市固體垃圾噸數相比下降,特別廢物噸數下降7%,如前所述,C&D 噸數增加約7%。
Adjusted EBITDA for Q2, as reconciled in our earnings release, increased by 11% to $628.9 million or 31.1% of revenue, 30 basis points above our margin guidance. Underlying solid waste margins expanded by 100 basis points year-over-year, largely offsetting 110 basis points in combined headwinds from tough year-over-year comparisons for recycled commodities a 90 basis point drag and RINs a 20 basis point drag.
根據我們的盈利報告,第二季度調整後 EBITDA 增長了 11%,達到 6.289 億美元,佔收入的 31.1%,比我們的利潤指引高出 30 個基點。基礎固體廢物利潤率同比擴大了 100 個基點,很大程度上抵消了回收商品同比下降 90 個基點和 RIN 下降 20 個基點帶來的 110 個基點綜合阻力。
Other year-over-year margin drivers included 30 basis points combined benefits from higher E&P waste activity and acquisitions completed since the year ago period with offsets from a 30 basis point impact to deferred compensation related to stock market movements during the period. Our Q2 tax rate stepped up to 24.7% as a result of two factors: first, the impact of nonrecurring executive severance payments, most of which were nondeductible; and second, higher foreign exchange rates for the Canadian dollar, normalizing for the severance yields an adjusted rate of 23.6%.
其他同比利潤驅動因素包括勘探與生產廢物活動增加以及自去年同期以來完成的收購帶來的 30 個基點的綜合效益,抵消了與股市波動相關的遞延薪酬 30 個基點的影響。我們第二季度的稅率上升至24.7%,主要有兩個因素:一是非經常性高管遣散費的影響,其中大部分是不可扣除的;二是非經常性高管遣散費的影響。其次,加元匯率走高,遣散費收益率正常化後調整後的利率為 23.6%。
Year-to-date, we've delivered adjusted free cash flow of $630 million or 16.1% of revenue, leaving us well positioned to meet our full year outlook for $1.225 billion in adjusted free cash flow. During the quarter, we opportunistically paid down about $240 million in debt, taking leverage down to 2.75x debt-to-EBITDA, and resulting in a mix of about 15% variable rate debt and a weighted average cost of about 3.8%.
年初至今,我們已實現 6.3 億美元的調整後自由現金流,佔收入的 16.1%,這使我們能夠很好地實現全年 12.25 億美元調整後自由現金流的預期。在本季度,我們伺機償還了約 2.4 億美元的債務,將槓桿率降至債務與 EBITDA 的 2.75 倍,導致可變利率債務約為 15%,加權平均成本約為 3.8%。
The strength of our balance sheet and free cash flow generation affords the flexibility to reinvest in our business and execute on our growth strategy while also returning capital to shareholders, including, as we've demonstrated over the last dozen years through double-digit percentage per share annual increases to our cash dividend, which we will revisit again later this year.
我們的資產負債表和自由現金流產生的實力提供了對我們的業務進行再投資和執行我們的增長戰略的靈活性,同時還向股東返還資本,包括,正如我們在過去十幾年中通過兩位數的每股收益百分比所證明的那樣分享我們現金股息的年度增長,我們將在今年晚些時候再次討論這一問題。
I will now review our updated outlook for the full year and provide our outlook for the third quarter of 2023. Before I do, we'd like to remind everyone once again that actual results may vary significantly based on risks and uncertainties outlined in our safe harbor statement and filings we've made with the SEC and the Securities Commissions or similar regulatory authorities in Canada. We encourage investors to review these factors carefully. Our outlook assumes no significant change in underlying economic trends. It also excludes any impact from additional acquisitions that may close during the remainder of the year and expensing of transaction-related items during the period.
現在,我將回顧我們更新的全年展望,並提供我們對2023 年第三季度的展望。在此之前,我們想再次提醒大家,實際結果可能會根據我們安全報告中概述的風險和不確定性而存在很大差異。保留我們向美國證券交易委員會和證券委員會或加拿大類似監管機構提交的聲明和文件。我們鼓勵投資者仔細審查這些因素。我們的前景假設基本經濟趨勢沒有重大變化。它還排除了可能在今年剩餘時間內完成的額外收購以及在此期間交易相關項目費用的任何影響。
Looking first at our updated outlook for the full year as provided for and reconciled in our earnings release. Adjusted EBITDA for the full year is now estimated at approximately $2.525 billion or about 31.5% of revenue, up $25 million and 40 basis points from our initial outlook for a 70 basis point year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA margin for 2023. Our updated revenue outlook of approximately $8.025 billion reflects a $35 million reduction in fuel and material surcharges related to declining fuel costs since providing our initial outlook in February.
首先看看我們最新的全年展望,如我們的收益發布中所規定和調整的那樣。目前預計全年調整後 EBITDA 約為 25.25 億美元,約佔收入的 31.5%,比我們最初預計 2023 年調整後 EBITDA 利潤率同比增長 70 個基點增加了 2500 萬美元和 40 個基點。更新後的收入前景約為80.25 億美元,反映出自2 月份提供初步前景以來,由於燃料成本下降,燃料和材料附加費減少了3500 萬美元。
Net of this adjustment, our revenue outlook is up $10 million from February on updated values for recycled commodities and RINs, plus contributions from acquisitions completed since that time with solid waste volumes reflecting Q2 trends. Our adjusted free cash flow outlook of $1.225 billion reflects an increase to net capital expenditures of $25 million. Said another way, we increased our outlook for adjusted free cash -- for adjusted cash flow from operations by $25 million, in line with our EBITDA raise and took up capital expenditures as well.
扣除這一調整後,我們的收入前景比2 月份增加了1000 萬美元,原因是回收商品和RIN 的更新值,加上自那時以來完成的收購的貢獻,固體廢物量反映了第二季度的趨勢。我們調整後的自由現金流前景為 12.25 億美元,反映出淨資本支出增加了 2500 萬美元。換句話說,我們提高了調整後自由現金的預期——調整後的運營現金流增加了 2500 萬美元,這與我們的 EBITDA 提高和資本支出一致。
Turning next to our outlook for Q3. Revenue in Q3 is estimated to be approximately $2.06 billion. We expect core price of approximately 9% and total price plus volume of 5.5% to 6%. Recycled commodity values are projected in line with recent levels, down sequentially from Q2 on lower values for plastics with RINs in the range of $2.50 to $3. Adjusted EBITDA in Q3 is estimated at approximately $670 million or 32.5% of revenue. Depreciation and amortization expense for the third quarter is estimated at about 12.5% of revenue, including amortization of intangibles of about $39.5 million or about $0.11 per diluted share net of taxes.
接下來轉向我們對第三季度的展望。第三季度收入預計約為20.6億美元。我們預計核心價格約為 9%,總價格加銷量為 5.5% 至 6%。再生商品價值預計與近期水平一致,較第二季度連續下降,原因是 RIN 在 2.50 美元至 3 美元範圍內的塑料價值較低。第三季度調整後 EBITDA 預計約為 6.7 億美元,佔收入的 32.5%。第三季度的折舊和攤銷費用預計約佔收入的 12.5%,其中包括約 3950 萬美元的無形資產攤銷,即稅後每股攤薄後每股約 0.11 美元。
Interest expense, net of interest income in Q3 is estimated at approximately $68 million and finally, our effective tax rate in Q3 is estimated at about 23.5%, subject to some variability.
第三季度扣除利息收入後的利息支出估計約為 6800 萬美元,最後,我們第三季度的有效稅率估計約為 23.5%,可能存在一些變化。
And now let me turn the call back over to Ron for some final remarks before Q&A.
現在讓我把電話轉回給羅恩,讓他在問答之前做一些最後的評論。
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Thank you, Mary Anne. Once again, we are extremely pleased by our results to date and encouraged by the factors driving our increased margin outlook for the full year, particularly given the reality of ongoing inflationary impacts.
謝謝你,瑪麗·安妮。我們再次對迄今為止的業績感到非常滿意,並對推動我們全年利潤率前景提高的因素感到鼓舞,特別是考慮到持續的通脹影響的現實。
As provided in our updated outlook for 2023 and the back half of the year, we are set to exit 2023 at close to 32.5% adjusted EBITDA margin as the jumping off point for 2024. Normalized for recycled commodities, this puts our adjusted EBITDA margin well north of 33%. And yes, this is our total company EBITDA margin, not just solid waste and it translates to year-over-year margin expansion of over 150 basis points in the back half of the year, demonstrating the power of price-led organic growth along with a disciplined approach to acquisitions, and the avoidance of margin dilutive activities away from that core strategy.
正如我們對2023 年和下半年的最新展望中所提供的,我們將以接近32.5% 的調整後EBITDA 利潤率結束2023 年,作為2024 年的起點。對於回收商品進行標準化,這使我們的調整後EBITDA 利潤率表現良好33%以北。是的,這是我們公司的總 EBITDA 利潤率,而不僅僅是固體廢物,它意味著下半年利潤率同比增長超過 150 個基點,展示了價格主導的有機增長以及嚴格的收購方式,避免偏離核心戰略的利潤攤薄活動。
Looking ahead, we anticipate another year of price-led organic solid waste growth, positioning us for underlying margin expansion in 2024, along with benefits from continued improvements in retention, abating inflationary pressures and purposeful shedding. Moreover, ongoing acquisition activity, contributions from new RNG facilities and improvements to commodity-driven revenue could potentially produce further growth, which we will lay out when we provide our formal outlook for '24 in February.
展望未來,我們預計有機固體廢物將迎來又一年由價格主導的增長,這將使我們在2024 年實現潛在的利潤率擴張,同時受益於保留率的持續改善、通脹壓力的減輕和有目的的剝離。此外,持續的收購活動、新的 RNG 設施的貢獻以及商品驅動收入的改善可能會帶來進一步的增長,我們將在 2 月份提供 '24 的正式展望時對此進行闡述。
I want to conclude by thanking our 23,000 employees, whose dedication and hard work has driven our performance in the first half of the year and set us up for outside margin expansion in the second half. Their efforts and these results, including continuous improvement in our industry-leading safety metrics once again validated our market selection strategy and the role of local decision-making in driving results. Our focus is on maintaining a strategy that has served us well, executing on our playbook and delivering on our commitments. We appreciate your time today.
最後,我要感謝我們的 23,000 名員工,他們的奉獻和辛勤工作推動了我們上半年的業績,並為我們下半年的外部利潤擴張做好了準備。他們的努力和這些成果,包括我們行業領先的安全指標的不斷改進,再次驗證了我們的市場選擇策略以及當地決策在推動結果中的作用。我們的重點是維持對我們有利的戰略,執行我們的行動手冊並兌現我們的承諾。我們非常感謝您今天抽出時間。
And with that, I will now turn this call over to the operator to open up the lines for your questions. Operator?
現在,我將把這個電話轉給接線員,以便為您解答問題。操作員?
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) The first question is from Toni Kaplan of Morgan Stanley.
(操作員說明)第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的托尼·卡普蘭(Toni Kaplan)。
Toni Michele Kaplan - Senior Analyst
Toni Michele Kaplan - Senior Analyst
I wanted to start with the contracts that were shedded. I guess, first, any common themes between them, were they in particular geographies or verticals? And is this sort of -- are we finished with the shedding? Or is there more to go? Just trying to think about volume over -- I know you mentioned the negative 1%. Was that cumulative or incremental?
我想從被放棄的合同開始。我想,首先,他們之間有什麼共同的主題,他們是在特定的地理位置還是垂直領域?我們已經完成脫落了嗎?或者還有更多的事情要做嗎?只是想考慮一下交易量——我知道你提到了負的 1%。這是累積的還是增量的?
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Sure. Well, first off, Toni, the contracts that were shed are throughout our footprint. But I would say there was a greater amount in the eastern seaboard where we've had a lot of growth through M&A over the last 3 years. There were also some in the South, actually that were still a continued part of our reviewing of contracts from the Progressive transaction that we did 7-plus years ago.
當然。好吧,首先,托尼,被放棄的合同遍布我們的足跡。但我想說的是,東部沿海地區的數量更大,過去三年我們通過併購實現了很大的增長。南方也有一些,實際上,這仍然是我們審查七年前進行的漸進式交易合同的持續部分。
The common theme was that these are municipal contracts that are low margin with -- or that we price to either make an acceptable margin and return on capital or we're happy to let somebody else take and often the volumes will still come to our landfill, so in our mind, it's a win-win.
共同的主題是,這些是利潤率較低的市政合同,或者我們定價以獲得可接受的利潤和資本回報率,或者我們很樂意讓其他人拿走,並且通常這些量仍會來到我們的垃圾填埋場,所以在我們看來,這是雙贏的。
So no specific geography. As far as your question regarding shedding, look, any time you are in a high M&A period, which we have been, as you know, for the last 3-plus years, doing over $1 billion in M&A. You're going to have in private M&A transactions anywhere from 10% to 20%. So let's take an average of 15% of the revenue that you acquire that is probably 0 to negative margin. You know that going in and you identify that. And as those contracts come up, you work to reprice them or to exit them.
所以沒有具體的地理位置。至於你關於剝離的問題,你看,任何時候你都處於併購高峰期,正如你所知,在過去三年多的時間裡,我們的併購金額超過了 10 億美元。私人併購交易中的比例將達到 10% 到 20%。因此,我們將您獲得的收入的 15% 平均為 0 到負利潤。你知道這一點,並且你能識別出這一點。當這些合同出現時,你需要努力重新定價或退出它們。
So there has always been in our model, always for 25 years, intentional shedding. It's -- you're seeing it more now because of the large amount of M&A done over 3 years. And also in a flat -- effectively a flat economy over the last year from a GDP standpoint, so you've got a little softer economy. So with a larger amount of M&A, you see a little bit more of it in the volume numbers.
因此,25 年來,我們的模型中一直存在著有意的脫落。由於三年來進行了大量併購,您現在看到的情況越來越多。而且從國內生產總值的角度來看,去年經濟實際上是持平的,所以經濟有些疲軟。因此,隨著併購金額的增加,您會在數量上看到更多的併購金額。
Again, so in a normalized economy, whatever that is, 2%, 3% GDP in a slower acquisition pace, we're still doing it. You just don't see it on a quarter in, quarter out basis. So I would expect that number to come down because we haven't done $1 billion this year in M&A. But this is a -- this is part of a normal running the business the way we do with a focus on returns.
再說一遍,在正常化的經濟中,無論是多少,以較慢的收購速度實現 2%、3% 的 GDP,我們仍在這樣做。你只是看不到它在四分之一進、四分之一出的基礎上的情況。所以我預計這個數字會下降,因為我們今年的併購金額還沒有達到 10 億美元。但這是我們正常經營業務的一部分,我們注重回報。
Again, I think if you look at the peers that have reported in the quarter, who've also had some pretty heavy M&A over the last several years, you basically saw the exact same thing. They -- as they acquire companies, they inherit the same situation. So that's really the story around municipal contracts.
同樣,我認為如果你看看本季度報告的同行,他們在過去幾年也進行了一些相當大的併購,你基本上會看到完全相同的事情。當他們收購公司時,他們繼承了同樣的情況。這就是關於市政合同的真正故事。
Mary Anne Whitney - Executive VP & CFO
Mary Anne Whitney - Executive VP & CFO
And just a one thing I would add to that, Ron touched on a couple of the regions. The other I would add would be Canada, where you saw purposeful shedding of certain residential municipal contracts. And I mentioned that because to Ron's point, about the impact of acquisitions, of course, that dates back to Progressive from 7 years ago, it tells you, you're still refining the portfolio opportunistically as contracts still roll off multiple years after the acquisition is completed. And frankly, the other point I'd make is then follow the margin. Because if you look at our regional reporting in our Q, you'll see the margin improvement that really stands out in our Eastern region and Canada, both of which we mentioned as having shedding going on.
我要補充的一件事是,羅恩談到了幾個地區。我要補充的另一個是加拿大,在那裡你看到了有目的地放棄某些住宅市政合同。我提到過,因為就羅恩的觀點而言,關於收購的影響,當然,可以追溯到7 年前的Progressive,它告訴你,你仍在機會主義地完善投資組合,因為合同仍在收購後多年到期完成了。坦率地說,我要說的另一點是遵循邊距。因為如果你看一下我們在問題中的區域報告,你會發現我們東部地區和加拿大的利潤率改善非常突出,我們提到這兩個地區都在減少。
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Yes. And lastly, Toni, I would say, obviously, as I mentioned, you have a number between 10% and 20% of that acquired revenue that you ultimately may reprice or shed, you're not seeing that level of it. Why? Because there's also municipal contracts we're winning all along as well. So again, this is sort of a net number of that. And as Mary Anne said, follow the margin because that tells you whether we're making the right decision on repricing or not.
是的。最後,托尼,我想說,顯然,正如我所提到的,你最終可能會重新定價或放棄所獲得收入的 10% 到 20% 之間的數字,但你不會看到這個水平。為什麼?因為我們也一直在贏得市政合同。再說一次,這只是其中的一個淨數字。正如瑪麗·安妮所說,遵循利潤率,因為這會告訴你我們在重新定價方面是否做出了正確的決定。
Toni Michele Kaplan - Senior Analyst
Toni Michele Kaplan - Senior Analyst
Perfect. And for my follow-up, I wanted to go to the margin. So you mentioned second half and third quarter expected to be 32.5%. Even just staying at that level in '24 would be 100 basis points of expansion year-over-year over this year, seems like a little bit higher than typical. And then you have inflation moderating and then maybe even some normal operating leverage on top of that? Like, I guess, why shouldn't we be modeling 100-plus even basis points of expansion for next year? What would be the factors to offset some of that? Or is that your expectation?
完美的。對於我的後續行動,我想走到邊緣。所以你提到下半年和第三季度預計是32.5%。即使僅保持 24 年的這一水平,今年的同比擴張也將達到 100 個基點,這似乎比典型情況要高一些。然後通脹放緩,甚至可能還有一些正常的運營槓桿?我想,為什麼我們不應該為明年建立 100 多個基點的擴張模型呢?哪些因素可以抵消其中的一些影響?或者這就是你的期望?
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Well, first off, remember, and I'm going to let Mary Anne take parts of this as well Toni. First off, remember, the second half of the year is just seasonally higher margin period. So the second half of the year, Q3 being guidance of 32.5%. If you do the math, I think Q4 comes in around 32.3%, so 32.4% blend. You're going to naturally have a step down in Q1 and Q2 seasonally, so your total margin isn't quite at 32.5% yet as we have guided this year is at 31.5%. So you're somewhat below that as you enter.
好吧,首先,請記住,我將讓瑪麗·安妮和托尼也參與其中。首先,請記住,下半年只是季節性利潤率較高的時期。因此,今年下半年,第三季度的指導值為 32.5%。如果你算一下,我認為第四季度的比例約為 32.3%,所以混合比例為 32.4%。您自然會在第一季度和第二季度季節性下降,因此您的總利潤率不會達到 32.5%,但我們今年的指導值為 31.5%。因此,當您進入時,您的位置略低於該值。
But look, I think it's too early yet to make any projections for next year's margin. We generally say, as you know, with price-led growth, we get around 30 to 40 basis points of margin expansion. Yes, I think the number will be north of that next year, not ready to commit to what that will be. And there's certainly a number of moving things.
但我認為現在對明年的利潤率做出任何預測還為時過早。正如您所知,我們通常說,隨著價格主導的增長,我們的利潤率將擴大約 30 至 40 個基點。是的,我認為明年的數字將高於這個數字,但尚未準備好承諾這一數字。當然還有很多令人感動的事情。
That also depends on the level of M&A over the balance of this year because, as you know, that can come in margin dilutive so we want to be cautionary in what we're guiding to. But what we are saying is the second half of this year on a normalized basis and depending on what you want to assume for commodities is at that 33% number. So I would be cautious telling you 100 basis points. I'm not saying that can't happen, but there are things outside our control, which influence that.
這還取決於今年剩餘時間的併購水平,因為如您所知,這可能會稀釋利潤,因此我們希望對我們的指導保持謹慎。但我們所說的是在正常化的基礎上今年下半年的情況,具體取決於你對大宗商品的假設是 33%。所以我會謹慎地告訴你 100 個基點。我並不是說這不可能發生,但有些事情超出了我們的控制範圍,從而影響了這一點。
Mary Anne Whitney - Executive VP & CFO
Mary Anne Whitney - Executive VP & CFO
I would just reiterate what Ron said, which is, of course, that we're not providing guidance right now. We think it's instructive to talk about the dynamics resulting in the sequential improvement we're expecting to see in the back half of the year. And the reality is we really see -- haven't seen the cost pressures abate in the first half of the year, and that's part of what's setting up as the comps get easier on things like wage increases, et cetera, from last year, it sets up the back half of this year to be a little stronger. And then, of course, we'll count that again next year. So that will influence the cadence of margin expansion next year, which would be the other reason to be cautious about your jumping off point and going up from there.
我只想重申羅恩所說的話,當然,我們現在不提供指導。我們認為討論導致我們預計在今年下半年看到的連續改善的動態是有啟發性的。現實情況是,我們確實看到了——今年上半年成本壓力並沒有減輕,這是隨著公司在工資增長等方面變得更容易而從去年開始的情況的一部分,它使今年下半年變得更加強勁。當然,明年我們會再次計算這一點。因此,這將影響明年利潤率擴張的節奏,這將是對你的起點和起點保持謹慎的另一個原因。
Operator
Operator
The next question is from Sean Eastman of KeyBanc Capital Markets.
下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Sean Eastman。
Sean D. Eastman - Senior Equity Research Analyst
Sean D. Eastman - Senior Equity Research Analyst
I just wanted to come back to the margins, the 33% comment. Just for clarity, is that where we're run rating on an annualized basis in the second half at sort of a longer-term average commodity input level? Just some clarity there would be helpful.
我只是想回到邊緣,即 33% 的評論。為了清楚起見,我們下半年的年化評級是否是在某種長期平均商品投入水平上進行的?只要稍微澄清一下就會有所幫助。
Mary Anne Whitney - Executive VP & CFO
Mary Anne Whitney - Executive VP & CFO
So I think the point we're trying to communicate was, as we exit the year at 32.5%, you say look, commodities are really up about only 20% from where they exited last year, which was down 70% from the highest last July, right? So since there's a long way to go to get back to last July's levels, and so that was Ron's point, just layer on, it's more than 50 basis points, it's probably 70 basis points. And so he's saying well north of 33% if we're exiting at around 32.5%.
所以我認為我們想要傳達的一點是,當我們以 32.5% 的價格退出今年時,你會說,大宗商品實際上只比去年退出時上漲了 20% 左右,比去年的最高值下降了 70%七月,對吧?因此,由於要回到去年 7 月的水平還有很長的路要走,這就是羅恩的觀點,逐層推論,它超過 50 個基點,可能是 70 個基點。所以他說,如果我們以 32.5% 左右的價格退出,那麼這個比例就遠遠高於 33%。
Sean D. Eastman - Senior Equity Research Analyst
Sean D. Eastman - Senior Equity Research Analyst
Okay. Understood. And then are there any sort of KPIs or margin enhancement targets that you could share or quantify around the big employee retention cultural programs that you're kicking off here, Ron?
好的。明白了。那麼,羅恩,您是否可以圍繞您在這裡啟動的大型員工保留文化計劃分享或量化任何類型的關鍵績效指標或利潤提高目標?
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Sure. Well, Sean, as I -- there's a number of things we look at. But as I've mentioned in previous investor meetings and analyst conferences. Look, there is not some 100 basis point lever that we are missing here at Waste Connections. The company has always been a very cost-focused and well-run company. But with turnover where it had been, there is no question that there is up to 100 basis points that we can take out of our cost structure over the next 18 to 24 months in 7 or 8 line items as retention improves. As we drive turnover from the what was in the mid-30% level down, I'm going to call that 10 points, so I'm into the mid-20% level. You're going to see 7 or 8 line items improve 10 to 15 basis points each.
當然。好吧,肖恩,正如我一樣,我們會考慮很多事情。但正如我在之前的投資者會議和分析師會議上提到的。看,Waste Connections 並沒有缺少 100 個基點的槓桿。該公司一直是一家非常注重成本且運營良好的公司。但在營業額保持不變的情況下,毫無疑問,隨著保留率的提高,我們可以在未來 18 至 24 個月的 7 或 8 個項目中從成本結構中削減多達 100 個基點。當我們將營業額從 30% 的中間水平降低時,我將其稱為 10 個點,所以我進入了 20% 的中間水平。您將看到 7 或 8 個訂單項每個提高 10 到 15 個基點。
And that's going to come in labor, it's going to come in labor over time, it's going to come in our variable account, it's going to come in our outside repair, it's going to come in risk, it's going to come in SG&A, it comes in volume because everything gets better when you're fully staffed and people's workloads are balanced and you're not running both your people and your equipment at max level.
這將來自勞動力,隨著時間的推移,它將出現在勞動力中,它將出現在我們的可變賬戶中,它將出現在我們的外部維修中,它將面臨風險,它將出現在SG&A中,它數量的增加是因為當你配備充足的人員並且人們的工作量達到平衡並且你沒有以最高水平運行你的人員和設備時,一切都會變得更好。
And so there's things we're looking at in each of those categories that we monitor. But the #1 thing is, as I said, just focus on turnover. And as turnover comes down, you'll see these line items as a percentage of revenue continue to improve. And I think we'll demonstrate that throughout the balance of this year, and we'll demonstrate that throughout next year.
因此,我們正在關注我們監控的每個類別中的一些內容。但正如我所說,第一件事是關注營業額。隨著營業額下降,您會看到這些訂單項占收入的百分比不斷提高。我認為我們將在今年餘下的時間裡證明這一點,我們將在明年證明這一點。
So those are the things -- and Sean, if you accept what I said, exiting the year at approaching 32.5% for the back half and normalizing commodities that getting us to north of 33%, if I'm correct in that 100 basis points, that's how you triangulate to a 34% type EBITDA margin or above in -- as we look out 18 to 24 months.
所以這些就是事情 - 肖恩,如果你接受我所說的話,今年下半年將接近 32.5%,商品正常化將使我們達到 33% 以上,如果我在這 100 個基點上是正確的,這就是你如何通過三角測量獲得34% 類型的EBITDA 利潤率或以上——我們展望18 至24 個月。
Operator
Operator
The next question is from Tyler Brown of Raymond James.
下一個問題來自雷蒙德·詹姆斯的泰勒·布朗。
Tyler Brown
Tyler Brown
Hey Ron, curious if we could get some more details on the Arrowhead deal. This asset seems very interesting to me. I'm just curious if you can talk about how that fits in the Northeastern disposal strategy? And basically, does it give you more confidence in acquiring collection in that market or even other rail-serve transfer stations along the East Coast. And then does this move have anything to do with Seneca, basically, is it an alternative, if that site were to shut down?
嘿,羅恩,很好奇我們能否獲得有關 Arrowhead 交易的更多細節。我覺得這個資產很有趣。我只是好奇你能否談談這與東北部的處置策略有何關係?基本上,它是否會讓您更有信心在該市場甚至東海岸沿線的其他鐵路服務轉運站獲取收藏品。那麼這一舉措與塞內卡有什麼關係,基本上,如果該網站被關閉,這是一個替代方案嗎?
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Sure. Let's attack the last part of that question first regarding Seneca. So first of it has nothing to do with Seneca. Seneca is doing very well, we're very confident in our position and our expansion there, and no real change to that. We have grown quite a bit along the eastern seaboard as you know, and there was just really a need to have incremental connectivity to disposal options to integrate many of those markets that up until now had been nonintegrated. We have been looking at this for the last 1.5 years or 2, and had internally committed that we were going to be able to integrate the eastern seaboard.
當然。讓我們首先討論這個問題的最後一部分,關於塞內卡。所以首先它與塞內卡無關。 Seneca 做得很好,我們對我們的地位和在那裡的擴張非常有信心,而且沒有真正的改變。如您所知,我們在東部沿海地區已經發展了相當多,確實需要增加與處置選項的連接,以整合許多迄今為止尚未整合的市場。我們在過去的 1.5 年或 2 年裡一直在關注這個問題,並在內部承諾我們將能夠整合東部沿海地區。
So to your first part of your question, absolutely, this opens up additional market opportunities for M&A. This opens up additional opportunities to integrate markets we have that are currently nonintegrated. And yes, this is an asset that's very strategic, and we're very excited about. It's a large landfill, as we mentioned in the release, 1,300-acre MSW site. We're today -- that asset is taking around 3,500 tons a day in and we can handle in time a multiple of that or more and have permitted capacity to do so for quite some period of time. So I think you'll continue to see us over ensuing quarters and into next year, talk about the development that we have planned.
因此,對於你問題的第一部分,這絕對為併購開闢了額外的市場機會。這為整合我們目前尚未整合的市場提供了更多機會。是的,這是一項非常具有戰略意義的資產,我們對此感到非常興奮。正如我們在新聞稿中提到的,這是一個大型垃圾填埋場,佔地 1,300 英畝。今天,該資產每天需要處理約 3,500 噸,我們可以及時處理數倍或更多,並且在相當長的一段時間內擁有這樣做的能力。因此,我認為您將在接下來的幾個季度和明年繼續見到我們,談論我們計劃的發展。
As you know, we try to think about these things in multi-years out. And that is how we are looking at this asset. It does open up other rail transfer options from an acquisition standpoint. So yes, it is very strategic in our mind.
如您所知,我們嘗試在多年後考慮這些事情。這就是我們看待這項資產的方式。從收購的角度來看,它確實開闢了其他鐵路運輸選擇。所以,是的,這在我們看來非常具有戰略意義。
Tyler Brown
Tyler Brown
Yes. Okay. Very interesting. And then Mary Anne, just from a modeling perspective, just based on the acquisitions to date, how much contribution from M&A is kind of implied in the full year guide?
是的。好的。很有意思。然後瑪麗·安妮,僅從建模的角度來看,僅基於迄今為止的收購,全年指南中隱含了多少併購貢獻?
Mary Anne Whitney - Executive VP & CFO
Mary Anne Whitney - Executive VP & CFO
Yes. For the full year, the original guide was about $316 million, and we're now at like $405 million to $410 million. And then the rollover for next year is around $70 million.
是的。全年預算約為 3.16 億美元,現在約為 4.05 億至 4.1 億美元。明年的展期金額約為 7000 萬美元。
Tyler Brown
Tyler Brown
Okay. And then my last one here, Ron, this is a bigger picture question. So I think it's already been 100 days back in the seat. I know that you never really left, but you have been interfacing investors pretty actively. And I'm just curious what your impressions have been there with all the new investors. What do you think the market still seems to miss about you or the story, if anything?
好的。然後是我的最後一個問題,羅恩,這是一個更大的問題。所以我認為回到座位上已經 100 天了。我知道你從未真正離開,但你一直非常積極地與投資者接觸。我只是好奇你對所有新投資者的印像如何。您認為市場似乎仍然懷念您或這個故事的哪些方面(如果有的話)?
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Well, thanks, Tyler. It's a 100 days today to answer your question. And I have appreciated getting back in touch with many investors who have known us but a tremendous amount of investors who are newer to the industry and our story that I haven't had the opportunity to meet.
嗯,謝謝,泰勒。今天是回答你問題的 100 天。我很高興能與許多認識我們的投資者重新取得聯繫,但也有大量對這個行業和我們的故事我沒有機會見到的新投資者。
Look, I think the investment community is very well informed. We've got a very well followed from an analyst community space, and I think that all helps in transparency. But look, I think the thing that is, and I think it's topical and top of mind right now, is I think there's a misplaced and misunderstood issue regarding volumes. I think there's this conception that all volume is good volume, and that's just completely inaccurate. There's a lot of volume that structurally the public company shouldn't have. The public companies can operate at 25% to 35% EBITDA margin with volume that is intrinsically structurally low because of the nature of the market or the contract or the positioning in the market.
看,我認為投資界消息靈通。我們在分析師社區空間中得到了很好的關注,我認為這一切都有助於提高透明度。但你看,我認為現在最熱門的話題是,我認為關於數量的問題存在錯誤和誤解的問題。我認為有一種觀念認為所有的音量都是好的音量,這是完全不准確的。從結構上講,上市公司不應該擁有大量的交易量。由於市場或合同或市場定位的性質,上市公司的 EBITDA 利潤率可以達到 25% 至 35%,其交易量本質上結構性較低。
So I think people should read into negative volumes as something that should be concerning whatsoever. It should be concerning if margins and cash flow are going in the other direction, but if they're accreting, I think that tells you why people are doing it. So that would be the -- I would just reiterate that just because it's topical right now more than anything.
所以我認為人們應該把負面的書讀成值得關注的事情。利潤率和現金流是否朝另一個方向發展應該令人擔憂,但如果它們在增加,我認為這可以告訴你為什麼人們這樣做。所以這就是——我只是重申這一點,因為它現在是最熱門的話題。
Operator
Operator
The next question is from Bryan Burgmeier of Citi.
下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Bryan Burgmeier。
Bryan Nicholas Burgmeier - Associate
Bryan Nicholas Burgmeier - Associate
Your guide and your comments quite fairly balanced capital allocation for the year and you increased CapEx guidance a little bit this quarter. Maybe just from a big picture perspective, can you expand on where you see the best returns for Waste Connections right now? And can you remind me what you think Waste Connections' optimal leverage point is?
您的指南和評論相當平衡了今年的資本配置,並且您在本季度稍微增加了資本支出指導。也許只是從大局的角度來看,您能否詳細說明一下您現在認為廢物連接的最佳回報在哪裡?您能否提醒我您認為 Waste Connections 的最佳槓桿點是多少?
Mary Anne Whitney - Executive VP & CFO
Mary Anne Whitney - Executive VP & CFO
Sure. To start with leverage first. So we feel very comfortable sitting in the 2.5 to 3x range. And what we like about that is it provides a lot of optionality if there's an opportunity for a large outlay, which there isn't in the current environment to take -- you take leverage higher. I mean, mathematically, it takes a lot to drive our leverage above 3x. So it'd have to be a really big deal, but it's nice to have optionality. And in the meantime, we maintain access to low-cost capital by retaining our investment-grade rating, which we want to adhere to. So that's just one data point regarding leverage, and we sit right in the middle of that range at 2.75 right now.
當然。首先從槓桿開始。所以我們在 2.5 到 3x 範圍內感覺非常舒服。我們喜歡的一點是,如果有機會進行大額支出,它提供了很多選擇,而在當前環境下是不可能的——你可以提高槓桿率。我的意思是,從數學上講,需要付出很大的努力才能將我們的槓桿率提高到 3 倍以上。所以這肯定是一件大事,但有選擇權也很好。與此同時,我們通過保留我們希望堅持的投資級評級來保持獲得低成本資本的機會。所以這只是關於槓桿率的一個數據點,我們現在正好處於該範圍的中間,即 2.75。
With respect to capital deployment and the best returns, if you think about with over $1 billion in free cash flow after paying a dividend, which has grown double digits for the last dozen years, we have a tremendous amount of flexibility to not only reinvest in the business, which is what most of our CapEx is. Across this industry, you're running 10%, 11% just in replacement capital and building out your landfill. And then, of course, we're also investing in opportunistically in projects like RNG, which when we think about the best returns, we'd say those are great returns certainly, we're in an environment where we can be opportunistic given tax credits.
就資本配置和最佳回報而言,如果你考慮一下支付股息後超過 10 億美元的自由現金流(過去十幾年增長了兩位數),我們擁有巨大的靈活性,不僅可以再投資業務,這是我們大部分資本支出的內容。在整個行業中,您僅花費 10%、11% 的資金用於置換資本和建設垃圾填埋場。然後,當然,我們也會機會主義地投資像 RNG 這樣的項目,當我們考慮最佳回報時,我們會說這些肯定是巨大的回報,我們所處的環境是考慮到稅收,我們可以投機取巧學分。
And so when we look ahead, next year will be a big year for CapEx. We mentioned that in the prepared remarks, about $120 million in CapEx is what we'd expect for RNG. And we'll continue to make those outlays opportunistically. But we're really not limited. And so that's why I started with where we sit on leverage and how much of our CapEx is reinvesting in the business, we feel really good about where we sit and continue to have a lot of optionality.
因此,當我們展望未來時,明年將是資本支出的重要一年。我們在準備好的評論中提到,我們對 RNG 的預期資本支出約為 1.2 億美元。我們將繼續機會主義地進行這些支出。但我們確實不受限制。因此,這就是為什麼我從我們的槓桿率以及我們的資本支出有多少用於再投資於業務開始,我們對我們的處境感到非常滿意,並且繼續擁有很多選擇權。
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
And Bryan, I would just add to that, and Mary Anne said it without stating it directly. Look, our best return of discretionary capital is an appropriately priced strategic M&A that meets our market, our financial and our operating criteria. I mean that is how we have built the valuation we have over 25 years. That's how we'll continue to build it going forward. And so that's what I think you've seen from us and you'll continue to see from us.
布萊恩,我只想補充一點,瑪麗·安妮沒有直接說明這一點。看,我們可自由支配資本的最佳回報是符合我們的市場、財務和運營標準的合理定價的戰略併購。我的意思是,這就是我們 25 年來建立估值的方式。這就是我們未來繼續構建它的方式。這就是我認為您從我們身上看到的,並將繼續從我們身上看到的。
Bryan Nicholas Burgmeier - Associate
Bryan Nicholas Burgmeier - Associate
Got it. And second maybe just follow up on the M&A outlook. Can you just provide a little bit of detail on where your pipeline maybe stands right now? Would you say it's as full, less full, more full than it was maybe 1 or 2 years ago? I know you're targeting that fairly kind of niche markets, but you've always been able to find deals. Just a little bit of detail on the pipeline and the outlook. I'll turn it over.
知道了。其次也許只是跟進併購前景。您能否提供一些有關您的管道目前可能所處位置的詳細信息?你會說它比一兩年前更飽滿、更不飽滿、更飽滿嗎?我知道您的目標是相當小的利基市場,但您總是能夠找到優惠。只是關於管道和前景的一些細節。我會把它翻過來。
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Sure. Yes. Actually, you may or may not know, Bryan, we obviously don't provide for obviously sensitivity and proprietary reasons, any real great detail on the M&A pipeline. But what I will tell you is pipeline is very full. There's a lot of LOIs in an offer stage. There's a number of LOIs in a final negotiating stage and we feel very comfortable about as we look out over the next several quarters, what our M&A cadence will be.
當然。是的。事實上,布萊恩,你可能知道,也可能不知道,出於明顯的敏感性和專有原因,我們顯然不會提供有關併購管道的任何真正的詳細信息。但我要告訴你的是,管道已經滿了。報價階段有很多意向書。有許多意向書處於最後談判階段,當我們展望未來幾個季度的併購節奏時,我們感到非常放心。
Look, relative to -- I'm just using a year ago, a year-and-a-quarter ago, we're lower than that in the pipeline, but you have to understand that was a very unique period. You had a -- you were coming out of 2 years of a pandemic, coming off of hyperinflation, there was a number of -- you had very low interest rates, a number of catalysts that made more than normal private sellers who had sort of pent-up demand from the pandemic look at doing something with their business because they had been on the sidelines.
聽著,相對於我剛剛使用的一年前,一年又一個季度前,我們低於管道中的水平,但你必須明白那是一個非常獨特的時期。你剛剛擺脫了兩年的大流行,擺脫了惡性通貨膨脹,有很多——你的利率非常低,有很多催化劑,這些催化劑比普通的私人賣家賺得更多。由於大流行而被壓抑的需求正在考慮對他們的業務做點什麼,因為他們一直處於觀望狀態。
So I think you have to look at sort of '22 as a little bit of an anomaly. So it'd be misleading to tell you our pipeline is equitable to where it was in '22. But relative to sort of historical norms, it is above those and continues to be so and it's a broad-based mix of collection and disposal, all solid waste opportunities across our footprint in both the U.S. and Canada.
所以我認為你必須將“22”視為一種異常現象。因此,告訴您我們的管道與 22 年的情況相同是誤導性的。但相對於某種歷史標準,它高於這些標準,並且將繼續如此,它是收集和處置的廣泛組合,是我們在美國和加拿大足跡中的所有固體廢物機會。
Operator
Operator
The next question is from Michael Hoffman of Stifel.
下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Michael Hoffman。
Michael Edward Hoffman - MD & Group Head of Diversified Industrials Research
Michael Edward Hoffman - MD & Group Head of Diversified Industrials Research
Can we talk about price and trend? So inferred in the full year guidance is you're maintaining the 9.5%. And if I follow the trend on restricted 7% in 2Q, aren't we resetting at a higher number on restricted in the second half given 2022's inflation was 8.9%? And so that sets up, you don't need a big reach on open market to hit the 9% that you're giving in the 3Q outlook. Am I thinking about that correctly?
我們可以談談價格和趨勢嗎?因此,在全年指導中推斷,您將維持 9.5%。如果我遵循第二季度限制性利率 7% 的趨勢,考慮到 2022 年的通脹率為 8.9%,我們下半年的限制性利率是否會重置為更高的數字?因此,您不需要在公開市場上進行大量投資即可達到您在第三季度展望中給出的 9%。我的想法正確嗎?
Mary Anne Whitney - Executive VP & CFO
Mary Anne Whitney - Executive VP & CFO
The way I'd encourage you to think about it, Michael, is that coming into the year, we basically know what the price increases will be on the 40% of our business that you're referring to, where there are those contracts reset and that's been factored into what we're communicating for our full year numbers. And most of those price increases. Yes, there's some that reset in middle of the year, and that influences those numbers. But the majority of our price increases more broadly happen early in the year. And so that really determines the overall number. There's a little movement over the course of the year.
邁克爾,我鼓勵您考慮的方式是,進入今年,我們基本上知道您所指的 40% 業務的價格上漲是多少,其中合同已重置這已被納入我們公佈的全年數據中。其中大部分價格上漲。是的,有些會在年中重置,這會影響這些數字。但我們大部分的提價都發生在年初。這確實決定了總數。一年中會有一些小變動。
The bigger factor in driving the cadence on a reported basis was, as we mentioned in prepared remarks, you've got a few things happening. One is the rolling off of outside price increases that we did last year in the face of accelerating inflationary pressures earlier in the year. And then also just the math the denominator getting bigger, which is why on a reported basis, our core price steps down. And then, of course, you've got kind of the noise of the good news on fuel, having fuel surcharges come down. So that's how I'd encourage you to think about it, it's around 7% in those contracts, CPI linked market. It doesn't move dramatically in the back half of the year. And again, the denominator gets bigger. And so the number comes down a little bit.
正如我們在準備好的評論中提到的那樣,在報告的基礎上推動節奏的更大因素是,你已經發生了一些事情。一是我們去年面對今年早些時候通脹壓力加劇而取消了外部價格上漲。然後,只是數學分母變得更大,這就是為什麼在報告的基礎上,我們的核心價格下降。然後,當然,你會聽到關於燃油的好消息,燃油附加費下降。這就是我鼓勵你思考的方式,在那些與 CPI 掛鉤的合同市場中,這一比例約為 7%。下半年不會有太大變化。再次,分母變大。所以這個數字略有下降。
Michael Edward Hoffman - MD & Group Head of Diversified Industrials Research
Michael Edward Hoffman - MD & Group Head of Diversified Industrials Research
Okay. Fair enough. But you've trended ahead of your budget on open market? You've retained better. So is there any...
好的。很公平。但您在公開市場上的趨勢是否超出了您的預算?你保留得更好。那麼有沒有...
Mary Anne Whitney - Executive VP & CFO
Mary Anne Whitney - Executive VP & CFO
We see pricing playing out about as we expected, Michael. We feel really good about the visibility we had on pricing coming into the year. We said last quarter, we already had about 85% of it locked up done or known as we're even above that now. So we'd encourage people that 9.5% a pretty good number for the full year.
我們看到定價正如我們預期的那樣,邁克爾。我們對今年定價的可見性感到非常滿意。我們上個季度說過,我們已經完成了大約 85% 的工作,或者說我們現在甚至超過了這個數字。因此,我們鼓勵人們全年增長 9.5%,這是一個相當不錯的數字。
Michael Edward Hoffman - MD & Group Head of Diversified Industrials Research
Michael Edward Hoffman - MD & Group Head of Diversified Industrials Research
Okay. What's the -- OCC at $75 in your model is above RISI, which is at $50. And so there's 2 questions here. What are you able to do differently than the underlying RISI. But more importantly, you made a comment that normal recycling, what OCC price equals normal when we think about normal recycling and margins?
好的。這是什麼——您的模型中 75 美元的 OCC 高於 50 美元的 RISI。這裡有兩個問題。您能做哪些與基礎 RISI 不同的事情?但更重要的是,您評論說,當我們考慮正常回收和利潤時,正常回收價格是多少 OCC 價格等於正常價格?
Mary Anne Whitney - Executive VP & CFO
Mary Anne Whitney - Executive VP & CFO
Well, so a couple of things. I think we all talk about what we see in our book of business, which is influenced by geography and other dynamics. And so when we talk about lows of maybe $50 that might have been lift RISI pricing in the high 30s. So it's tough to compare, but we're always running above.
嗯,有幾件事。我想我們都在談論我們在商業書中看到的內容,這些內容受到地理和其他動態的影響。因此,當我們談論 50 美元的低點時,RISI 定價可能會升至 30 多美元。所以很難比較,但我們總是在上面。
Now I do think, in addition, we benefit from doing some things to make sure we're maximizing the value of our commodities. By the way, we have a national marketing agreement where we're taking advantage of volumes and consolidating. And also, we're seeing the benefit of the improved quality coming out of our facilities, we're using robotics and therefore decreasing contamination coming out the back end of recycling facilities.
現在我確實認為,此外,我們還可以通過做一些事情來確保我們的商品價值最大化而受益。順便說一句,我們有一項全國營銷協議,我們正在利用銷量和整合優勢。此外,我們還看到了我們的設施質量提高的好處,我們正在使用機器人技術,因此減少了回收設施後端的污染。
So I would say those influence what we communicate as what the numbers are. I think so it's all relative to expectations early in the year, and we're about 20% above where we were when we exited last year. And that's what's factored into what we have guided for, for the full year.
所以我想說這些會影響我們所傳達的數字。我認為這一切都與今年年初的預期有關,我們比去年退出時的水平高出約 20%。這就是我們全年指導方針中考慮的因素。
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
No, no. Yes. I mean everything Mary Anne said is spot on. I would tell you, what do we think? We think somewhere in that $110 to $120 is sort of -- you asked what is a normalized, I call that a normalized OCC pricing, and that's how you get to what we're saying we're down year-over-year. Obviously, it peaked well above those numbers in the $160 to $200 range. So we're not saying that. But we are -- that's sort what we're calling more normalized.
不,不。是的。我的意思是瑪麗·安妮所說的一切都是正確的。我會告訴你,我們怎麼想?我們認為 110 美元到 120 美元之間的某個地方——你問什麼是標準化,我稱之為標準化 OCC 定價,這就是我們所說的同比下降的原因。顯然,它的峰值遠高於 160 至 200 美元範圍內的數字。所以我們不是這麼說的。但我們——這就是我們所說的更加標準化的情況。
And also, you have to recognize, Michael, so much of our commodities in our model comes off of 1 of the 2 coast, I know most people do. But there, you've got transportation advantages to markets that you don't have when you've got a lot of your volume in the Midwest and the South. And so that gives you some spread to the [royalty] pricing as well.
而且,邁克爾,你必須認識到,我們模型中的很多商品都來自兩個海岸之一,我知道大多數人都是這樣。但在那裡,您擁有通往市場的運輸優勢,這是當您在中西部和南部擁有大量銷量時所不具備的。因此,這也給你帶來了一些[特許權使用費]定價的價差。
Michael Edward Hoffman - MD & Group Head of Diversified Industrials Research
Michael Edward Hoffman - MD & Group Head of Diversified Industrials Research
Okay. And then big improvement in labor turnover from year end to now, Ron your best-in-class periods were sub-20%. In the challenges of the current labor world, can -- is that possible again?
好的。從年底到現在,勞動力流動率有了很大改善,羅恩,你的最佳時期低於 20%。在當前勞工世界的挑戰中,這是否可能再次實現?
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Yes. I think it is, Michael. Obviously, that's a high goal, a high bar, but we're going to hold ourselves to that high bar. I think certainly getting into the mid-20s first and then working our way down from the mid-20s down to that 20% or below level is the goal. Our goal is to get it into the mid-20s by the early part of next year or the mid part of next year and then work it down from there. There's a lot of components that go along to that from sourcing to onboarding to supervision, to equipment, to everything. There's just so many things that you have to fine-tune to get those numbers down, a point at a time once you get down to that 23% number or so. But yes, it is achievable, and we're going to hold ourselves to that.
是的。我想是的,邁克爾。顯然,這是一個很高的目標,一個很高的標準,但我們將堅持這個高標準。我認為,我們的目標當然是首先進入 20 多歲,然後從 20 多歲下降到 20% 或以下的水平。我們的目標是在明年初或年中之前達到20多歲,然後從那裡開始逐步下降。從採購到入職到監督,到設備,到一切,都有很多組件。有太多事情需要微調才能降低這些數字,一旦降低到 23% 左右的數字,就一次一點地進行調整。但是,是的,這是可以實現的,我們將堅持這一目標。
I would also say, Michael, what we really focus on is, look, if you're at 23%, just pick a number. How much of that is involuntary versus voluntary? As long as that involuntary number is somewhere in that 40%, 50% range, we're not as hung up on what turnover is because that means we're making proactive decisions most likely about safety on employees who are not going to make it and are going to cause a bigger issue. We could bring turnover reported down to 23% today if we backed off the involuntary. So you've got to understand that as long as we're going to hold our standard to where almost half of that, we're making proactive decisions really, that voluntary number is dropping to 10% to 13% when you get to 23%.
我還要說,邁克爾,我們真正關注的是,看,如果你是 23%,就選擇一個數字。其中有多少是非自願的,與自願的相比?只要非自願人數在 40% 到 50% 的範圍內,我們就不會那麼關心人員流動率,因為這意味著我們正在做出積極主動的決策,很可能是為了那些不會成功的員工的安全並將引起更大的問題。如果我們放棄非自願行為,我們今天的營業額可能會下降至 23%。所以你必須明白,只要我們將標准保持在幾乎一半的水平,我們就會真正做出積極主動的決定,當你達到 23 歲時,自願人數就會下降到 10% 到 13% %。
Michael Edward Hoffman - MD & Group Head of Diversified Industrials Research
Michael Edward Hoffman - MD & Group Head of Diversified Industrials Research
Got it. And then you've shared with us a couple of self-help things like price volume equals 30, 40 basis points, labor spread over 2 years. This is what we just talked about it's another 40-50. What about repair and maintenance and fleet age and getting fleet replacement, what's that opportunity?
知道了。然後您與我們分享了一些自助的事情,例如價格量等於 30、40 個基點、兩年內的勞動力價差。這就是我們剛才講的,又是40-50。維修和保養、機隊年齡以及機隊更換怎麼樣?這個機會是什麼?
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Yes. I mean, that is clearly an opportunity, Michael, and that's a function of several things. Look, part of the turnover issue is also in technicians. And when you're down technicians, just use the same percentage, 20% to 25%. You're sending a lot of repairs outside that you don't have the manpower to do inside instead of something being a $10,000 to $12,000 internal cost, you're turning it into a $30,000 to $40,000 external repair. So when you're properly staffed, you're going to see improvements in repairs and maintenance, particularly outside repairs.
是的。我的意思是,這顯然是一個機會,邁克爾,這是多種因素的作用。看,人員流動問題的一部分也出在技術人員身上。當你減少技術人員時,只需使用相同的百分比,20% 到 25%。您將大量的維修工作發送到外部,而您沒有人力在內部進行維修,而不是內部成本為 10,000 至 12,000 美元,而是將其轉變為 30,000 至 40,000 美元的外部維修。因此,當您配備適當的人員時,您將看到維修和保養方面的改進,尤其是外部維修。
You're also going to see less breakdown maintenance because you're more proactive on your PM maintenance and breakdown maintenance is always 2 to 3x more expensive than preventative maintenance. So look, I think there's a pick a number, a 20 to 40 basis point in the whole variable repair and maintenance equation between outside repairs and internal repairs. And that's also a function, Michael, of your CapEx replacement schedule happening on schedule, which is continuing to improve, but will probably continue to be delayed some units throughout probably mid- to late '24 from what we're hearing from manufacturers at this point.
您還將看到更少的故障維護,因為您在 PM 維護方面更加主動,並且故障維護始終比預防性維護貴 2 到 3 倍。所以看,我認為在外部維修和內部維修之間的整個可變維修和維護方程中,有一個數字,20 到 40 個基點。邁克爾,這也是按計劃進行的資本支出更換計劃的一個功能,該計劃正在繼續改進,但從我們從製造商那裡聽到的情況來看,一些設備可能會繼續延遲到 24 年中後期觀點。
Operator
Operator
The next question is from Kevin Chiang of CIBC.
下一個問題是 CIBC 的 Kevin Jiang 提出的。
Kevin Chiang - Executive Director of Institutional Equity Research & Analyst
Kevin Chiang - Executive Director of Institutional Equity Research & Analyst
Congratulations, Joe, on the new title there. Maybe if I could ask the Arrowhead question this way. If I look at your segmented results, your lower margin segment in terms of Eastern and Mid-South -- Mid-South segments that you started to disclose. Does Arrowhead dramatically changed how you look at the profitability of those 2 segments over time? Do this asset help result in some convergence between those 2 segments versus what you see in some of the other markets?
喬,恭喜你獲得了新頭銜。也許我可以這樣問箭頭問題。如果我看一下你的細分結果,你開始披露的東部和中南地區的利潤率較低的部分——中南部分。隨著時間的推移,Arrowhead 是否會極大地改變您對這兩個細分市場盈利能力的看法?與您在其他一些市場中看到的情況相比,該資產是否有助於實現這兩個細分市場之間的某種融合?
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Yes. I mean, obviously, if you can integrate a market, Kevin, you're going to pick up that internalized margin on disposal that was going external. So it obviously is going to help improve the margin without question. It also more importantly, improves your competitive positioning and sustainability of margins in a market area over a longer period of time. So that's why it is so important.
是的。我的意思是,顯然,如果你能夠整合一個市場,凱文,你將獲得內部化的處置利潤,而這些利潤正在走向外部。因此,毫無疑問,這顯然將有助於提高利潤率。更重要的是,它還可以提高您在市場領域的競爭地位和利潤的可持續性。這就是為什麼它如此重要。
You got to also remember, Kevin, when you look at this, that the Northeast, in particular, is always, for the most part, taken as a whole, going to be a lower-margin profile business because of the pricing of disposal. You're talking about a market that is $80 to $130 a ton, pick a $100, $110 as a midpoint comparing that to a Midwest or South that might be $30 to $45 a ton. So you've got an inflated revenue number because of disposal in your collection system, in your revenue and therefore, obtaining the same EBITDA margin is that much more difficult.
凱文,你還必須記住,當你看到這一點時,尤其是東北地區,在很大程度上,作為一個整體,由於處置定價的原因,總是會成為利潤率較低的業務。您談論的是每噸 80 至 130 美元的市場,選擇 100 美元、110 美元作為中點,而中西部或南部的市場價格可能為每噸 30 至 45 美元。因此,由於您的收集系統和收入中的處置,您的收入數字會被誇大,因此,獲得相同的 EBITDA 利潤率要困難得多。
So if you look at company based in the Northeast, like Casella, you've seen a historically lower than someone not based in Northeast public company margin, and that's a reflection of the market area as much as anything else. So are we going to raise the Northeast margins to the Canadian or the West Coast margins? Well, most likely not because it's not structurally possible, but it is structurally possible to raise it from where it is. And Arrowhead will absolutely help that.
因此,如果你看看像卡塞拉這樣位於東北部的公司,你會發現歷史上的利潤率低於非東北部上市公司的利潤率,這與其他因素一樣反映了市場區域。那麼我們是否要將東北部的利潤率提高到加拿大或西海岸的利潤率?嗯,很可能不是因為它在結構上是不可能的,而是在結構上可以從現有位置提升它。箭頭絕對會對此有所幫助。
Kevin Chiang - Executive Director of Institutional Equity Research & Analyst
Kevin Chiang - Executive Director of Institutional Equity Research & Analyst
That's great color. And again, you kind of noted this in your previous response, just the constituents of what's in revenue that impacts the segmented revenue in terms of the cost structure of those individual regions. But if I look at it, simplistically with the new mix South segment. Let's say you're running at least if I look at the most recent quarter, roughly $100 million in revenue quarterly below maybe the second smallest region in the U.S., or excluding Canada. Here so let's call it $400 million of annualized revenue. Is the argument or is the perception here that the Mid-South can grow to the size of some of your other U.S. segment. So that's kind of the opportunity in front of the Mid-South, whether it's through M&A or outside organic growth that you can close a gap from an overall top line perspective here and we should see.
那顏色真棒。同樣,您在之前的回復中也注意到了這一點,即收入的組成部分會影響各個地區的成本結構的細分收入。但如果我看一下,簡單地看一下新的混合南方部分。假設你至少在運行,如果我看看最近一個季度,每個季度的收入大約比美國第二小的地區低 1 億美元,或者不包括加拿大。在這裡,我們將其稱為 4 億美元的年化收入。這裡的爭論或看法是,中南地區可以發展到美國其他地區的規模。因此,這就是中南部面臨的機會,無論是通過併購還是外部有機增長,您都可以從整體營收角度縮小差距,我們應該看到。
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Yes. So yes, good question, Kevin. So first off, let me explain how we think of our regional alignment, okay? So we think about it not just in terms of revenue size, we think about it in terms of employee size, we think of it in terms of geography, and our ability to get within that geography, either over the road or via other mechanisms because our regional staff has to travel and cover that. We think of it in terms of waste flows, how it flows within a geography. And then we think of it in terms of forward-looking M&A opportunity and growth.
是的。所以是的,好問題,凱文。首先,讓我解釋一下我們如何看待我們的區域聯盟,好嗎?因此,我們不僅考慮收入規模,還考慮員工規模,考慮地理位置,以及我們通過道路或其他機制進入該地理區域的能力,因為我們的區域工作人員必須出差並承擔這些工作。我們從廢物流的角度來思考它,即廢物在某個地理區域內的流動方式。然後我們從前瞻性併購機會和增長的角度來考慮。
So you can't look at a region and say, "Well, this region is annualizing at $1 billion and another one is at $2 billion." So they must think that region can go from $1 to $2 billion. That would be a misleading way to characterize the way to think about it because that is only one factor. We may have the close to the same number of employees that are in a $1 billion to $1.2 billion region that are in a $2 billion region because of the price of disposal because of other things.
因此,你不能看著某個地區並說:“這個地區的年銷售額為 10 億美元,而另一個地區的年銷售額為 20 億美元。”因此他們一定認為該地區的價值可以從 1 億美元增至 20 億美元。這將是一種誤導性的描述思考方式的方式,因為這只是一個因素。由於其他原因造成的處置成本,我們在 10 億至 12 億美元區域的員工數量可能與 20 億美元區域的員工數量接近。
So we -- in the Mid-South, if you look at Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, more rural states, you're covering a lot of geography and so you have more people. You also have a lot of more residential business. So you've got more people employed through that. So it's a complex way to tell you how we think about what goes within a region. Does the Mid-South have tremendous growth opportunities? Absolutely, we believe it does. Just look at those states, but should you think about it as getting to the size of the Southern or the Eastern region in time? That might be a little misleading.
因此,在中南部,如果你看看田納西州、肯塔基州、阿拉巴馬州以及更多的農村州,你會發現覆蓋了很多地理區域,因此人口也更多。您還有更多的住宅業務。所以通過這個你可以僱用更多的人。因此,這是一種複雜的方式來告訴您我們如何看待一個地區內發生的事情。中南地區是否有巨大的增長機會?當然,我們相信確實如此。看看這些州,但您是否應該將其視為及時達到南部或東部地區的規模?這可能有點誤導。
Operator
Operator
The next question is from Jerry Revich of Goldman Sachs.
下一個問題來自高盛的傑里·雷維奇。
Jerry David Revich - VP
Jerry David Revich - VP
Ron, I'm wondering if you could talk about how much of the Alabama acquisition expands your potential M&A pipeline with companies that fit the Waste Connections mold given how much that asset can be scaled?
羅恩,我想知道您能否談談阿拉巴馬州的收購在多大程度上擴大了您與符合廢物連接模式的公司的潛在併購渠道,因為該資產可以擴展多少?
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Yes. I think Jerry, again, it'd just be a guess, and I would hate to. I don't want to do that for you or anyone because I don't know that exactly. We don't know that exactly. But look, if you look at our Massachusetts and our Rhode Island market, as an example, prior to yesterday's announcement, those were nonintegrated markets for us. They are now integrated, okay? We can take -- well, most of our Mass and our Rhode Island market to the Arrowhead landfill through our network as of today. So that gives you an idea that there's opportunities within those states surrounding states that we are not in and some we are in, where there's more M&A opportunity today than there was a few days ago.
是的。我想傑瑞,再說一次,這只是一個猜測,我不想這麼做。我不想為你或任何人這樣做,因為我不太清楚。我們並不確切知道這一點。但是,如果你看一下我們的馬薩諸塞州和羅德島州市場,例如,在昨天宣布之前,這些對我們來說是非一體化市場。現在他們已經融為一體了,好嗎?從今天開始,我們可以通過我們的網絡將馬薩諸塞州和羅德島州的大部分市場運往箭頭垃圾填埋場。因此,這讓你知道,在我們不在的州和我們所在的一些州周邊的州內,存在著機會,今天這些州的併購機會比幾天前更多。
What that exact number is? I don't know yet, Jerry. I think as we go forward in a couple of quarters and have greater understanding, we can give you something more clarified. But suffice it to say that it gives us opportunity that some of which we had passed on, okay, because we weren't sure if we could become integrated.
這個確切的數字是多少?我還不知道,傑瑞。我認為,隨著我們在幾個季度內取得進展並加深了解,我們可以為您提供更清晰的信息。但只要說它給了我們機會,我們已經放棄了其中一些機會,好吧,因為我們不確定我們是否可以融入。
Remember, our whole model is we're either going to be an exclusive market where we have a franchise or a similar agreement or we're going to try to create a de facto asset franchise through asset positioning within a market. And in a competitive market, if you are a long-term disposal disadvantage, you're not going to create that de facto asset franchise. So there were markets that we were sort of self shedding out of consciously that we now can revisit. So that's how -- why we say it is strategic.
請記住,我們的整個模式是,我們要么成為擁有特許經營權或類似協議的獨家市場,要么嘗試通過市場內的資產定位創建事實上的資產特許經營權。在競爭激烈的市場中,如果您處於長期處置劣勢,您就不會創建事實上的資產特許經營權。因此,有些市場是我們有意識地自我剝離的,現在我們可以重新審視它們。這就是為什麼我們說它是戰略性的。
Jerry David Revich - VP
Jerry David Revich - VP
Super. And can you totally just expand on the point of becoming vertically integrated in the existing markets. I mean in some of those areas, there's local disposal options that you're currently flowing through there, just more efficient than shipping all the way to Alabama by rail. So can you just expand on that point in terms of the plan. So is this really taking a view of disposal capacity 5 years out in those markets? Can you just expand on that? Because I know you folks aren't running railcars for practice, you want to make sure you're getting really good returns on those investments.
極好的。您能否完全在現有市場中進行垂直整合的基礎上進行擴展?我的意思是,在其中一些地區,您目前正在流經那裡,有當地的處置選項,比通過鐵路一路運送到阿拉巴馬州更有效。那麼您能否在計劃方面擴展一下這一點?那麼,這真的是考慮到這些市場 5 年後的處理能力嗎?你能擴展一下嗎?因為我知道你們運行軌道車並不是為了練習,所以你們想確保從這些投資中獲得真正好的回報。
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Yes, absolutely, Jerry. And look, we have not said this is going to -- we're going to take all of our Northeast market to Arrowhead by any means. There are -- each of our markets within a market area or our niche is that some of them have local municipal disposal, some of them are flowed to local municipal disposal. Therefore, we can't do anything. That's always going to go there, some of them disposal, it makes more sense economically and return basis to go there. We're going to look at that.
是的,絕對是,傑瑞。看,我們並沒有說過這將 - 我們將通過任何方式將我們所有的東北市場帶到箭頭。我們的每個市場在一個市場區域或我們的利基市場中,有些有當地市政處置,有些則流向當地市政處置。因此,我們無能為力。這些總是會去那裡,其中一些是處置的,去那裡在經濟上和回報基礎上更有意義。我們要看看這個。
But to your point, in your comment, understand that many parts of the Northeast are an $80 to $130 market, pick $100 as a midpoint just for conversation. You can move waste on rail a long ways at $100 a ton. Okay? So unless there's a contraction in disposal pricing along the Northeast, which we don't project. By the way, if it happened, doesn't hurt us. That helps us on a collection basis.
但就你的觀點而言,在你的評論中,請理解東北部的許多地區都是 80 至 130 美元的市場,選擇 100 美元作為中點只是為了交談。您可以通過鐵路將垃圾長途運輸,價格為每噸 100 美元。好的?因此,除非東北地區的處置價格出現收縮(我們預計不會出現這種情況)。順便說一句,如果它發生了,不會傷害我們。這在收集的基礎上對我們有幫助。
You're going to continue to see us move waste to where it makes the most economical return basis. And so we've taken a very hard look at this. You've got diminishing disposal capacity along the Northeast. You're going to continue to have an upward bias on price throughout the Northeast as disposal lives contract. So I think, if anything, you're going to see waste continue to move outside of the Northeast and longer distances.
您將繼續看到我們將廢物轉移到最經濟的回報基礎上。所以我們非常認真地研究了這個問題。東北地區的處理能力正在下降。隨著處置壽命的縮短,整個東北地區的價格將繼續上漲。所以我認為,如果有什麼不同的話,你會看到垃圾繼續向東北部以外的地方移動,並且移動到更遠的距離。
Jerry David Revich - VP
Jerry David Revich - VP
Super. I appreciate the detail. And Ron, can you totally just update us on how the landfill gas developments are tracking? And as we think about when they start flowing through and obviously contributing to margins. Any update on the timing and the cadence, given the moving pieces in the industry, not only from project timing, but getting EPA certified and other moving pieces that are essentially delaying some players in ramping up capacity utilization?
極好的。我很欣賞細節。羅恩,您能否向我們介紹一下垃圾填埋氣開發的最新進展情況?當我們思考它們何時開始流通並明顯貢獻利潤時。考慮到行業中的變化,不僅是項目時間安排,還有獲得 EPA 認證和其他實質上推遲了一些參與者提高產能利用率的變化,有關時間和節奏的任何更新嗎?
Mary Anne Whitney - Executive VP & CFO
Mary Anne Whitney - Executive VP & CFO
Yes, Jerry, we say the update is our projects are on track. They're in line with our expectations. We said there were a couple that should be online by the end of this year, that they would then layer in over the next couple of years. And we've talked about that $200 million in annual EBITDA by '26, and there's no change to that outlook.
是的,傑里,我們說更新是我們的項目正在步入正軌。他們符合我們的期望。我們說有一些應該在今年年底上線,然後他們將在未來幾年內逐步上線。我們已經討論過到 26 年年度 EBITDA 將達到 2 億美元,這一前景沒有變化。
Operator
Operator
The next question is from Noah Kaye of Oppenheimer.
下一個問題來自奧本海默的諾亞·凱伊。
Noah Duke Kaye - Executive Director & Senior Analyst
Noah Duke Kaye - Executive Director & Senior Analyst
I appreciate the thoughtful responses today. And I just wanted to do a little bit of housekeeping to clean these up. First, just to level set on where we sit today on turnover and if you can disaggregate into voluntary versus involuntary.
我很欣賞今天深思熟慮的回應。我只是想做一些家務工作來清理這些。首先,我們先了解一下我們今天的營業額情況,以及是否可以分為自願與非自願。
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Sure. I can do so. So we peaked in turnover at the end of Q4 of '22 at about 35%. We brought that down by the middle of Q2 to about 30% and we have decreased that further to just under 29% at the end of Q2. We are tracking below that as we head into Q3 of '23, and I would project that to be by the end of Q3, 1 point or 2 lower at the end of Q3 than where we ended Q2.
當然。我可以這樣做。因此,我們的營業額在 22 年第四季度末達到頂峰,約為 35%。我們在第二季度中期將這一比例降至 30% 左右,並在第二季度末進一步降至略低於 29%。當我們進入 23 年第三季度時,我們正在追踪這一點,我預計到第三季度末,第三季度末比第二季度末低 1 或 2 個點。
We peaked at the end of Q4 of '22 at about 1,900 open positions or about 8% of head count. We are currently -- we ended June at about 1,200 open positions or about 5% of head count and I would project by Q3, we would get that into the 1,100 maybe just below range, getting that into the 4.5% range. A 4.5% is a very comfortable number, optimal in my mind, is 3.5%, you're always going to have some, you're going to want some, that's your involuntary that you're making decisions on but if we can get to that 3.5% open position over the course of the next 6 to 8 months, we'd be very happy. There's a material difference running 7%, 8% of open head count versus 3.5% to 4%.
我們在 22 年第四季度末達到頂峰,約有 1,900 個未平倉職位,約佔員工總數的 8%。目前,截至6 月份,我們的未平倉頭寸約為1,200 個,約佔員工總數的5%,我預計到第三季度,我們會將其降至1,100 個(可能略低於該範圍),將其降至4.5% 的範圍。 4.5% 是一個非常舒服的數字,在我看來最佳是 3.5%,你總是會擁有一些,你會想要一些,這是你不自覺的決定,但如果我們能夠得到對於未來6 到8個月內3.5% 的未平倉頭寸,我們會非常高興。空缺人數的 7%、8% 與 3.5% 至 4% 之間存在重大差異。
Noah Duke Kaye - Executive Director & Senior Analyst
Noah Duke Kaye - Executive Director & Senior Analyst
Very helpful. And then just remind us how much you're spending this year in CapEx on RNG and new recycling facilities? And did that number change at all in the $25 million higher CapEx guide?
很有幫助。然後提醒我們今年你們在 RNG 和新回收設施上的資本支出有多少?在資本支出增加 2500 萬美元的指導中,這個數字有什麼變化嗎?
Mary Anne Whitney - Executive VP & CFO
Mary Anne Whitney - Executive VP & CFO
No change in the higher guide. So this year, total for '23, the expectation is around $45 million for RNG and another $25 million for our recycling facilities for a total of about $70 million. And as I mentioned earlier, it steps up the expectation of the R&D spending stepped up in '24, probably $125 million, somewhere thereabout.
更高的指南沒有變化。因此,今年 23 年,RNG 的預計總收入約為 4500 萬美元,我們的回收設施預計為 2500 萬美元,總計約為 7000 萬美元。正如我之前提到的,它提高了對 24 年研發支出增加的預期,可能為 1.25 億美元,大約在這個數字左右。
Noah Duke Kaye - Executive Director & Senior Analyst
Noah Duke Kaye - Executive Director & Senior Analyst
Okay. So there's an $80 million step-up on RNG and recycling, is that kind of flattish for next year? Or are those investments rolling off?
好的。那麼,RNG 和回收費用將增加 8000 萬美元,明年這個數字是否持平?或者這些投資正在逐漸減少?
Mary Anne Whitney - Executive VP & CFO
Mary Anne Whitney - Executive VP & CFO
I think those are rolling off next year from maybe a nominal amount in '24.
我認為明年這些可能會從 24 年的名義金額開始減少。
Noah Duke Kaye - Executive Director & Senior Analyst
Noah Duke Kaye - Executive Director & Senior Analyst
Okay. So net-net, that's like a $55 million, $60 million increase in total CapEx above and beyond what you normally spend?
好的。那麼,這相當於總資本支出增加了 5500 萬美元、6000 萬美元,超出了您通常的支出嗎?
Mary Anne Whitney - Executive VP & CFO
Mary Anne Whitney - Executive VP & CFO
Yes.
是的。
Noah Duke Kaye - Executive Director & Senior Analyst
Noah Duke Kaye - Executive Director & Senior Analyst
That's helpful. And then on Arrowhead, look, I don't know if transformative is the right word, but this is extremely significant for your operations use of Mississippi. And there are a lot of peers with Northeast and East Coast operations, I imagine this network would be valuable too. So can you maybe just talk a little bit about how these assets came to you? Why Waste Connections?
這很有幫助。然後在箭頭上,看,我不知道“變革”這個詞是否正確,但這對於您對密西西比州的運營使用極為重要。而且有很多同行在東北和東海岸開展業務,我想這個網絡也很有價值。那麼您能否簡單談談您是如何獲得這些資產的?為什麼要浪費連接?
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Well, sure, we can certainly try. Obviously, somewhat of that rests in the answer from the sellers. But we can tell you what we understand. First off, these assets came to us because we went after these assets. This was not a shopped transaction, this was not a marketed or brokered or auction transaction we began pursuing over a year, almost 1.5 years ago, intimate discussions with the ownership and we accelerated those throughout the course of this year heading into Q2.
嗯,當然,我們當然可以嘗試。顯然,這在一定程度上取決於賣家的回答。但我們可以告訴你我們所理解的。首先,這些資產來到我們這裡是因為我們追求這些資產。這不是一次購買交易,這不是我們在一年多(大約 1.5 年前)開始進行的營銷、經紀或拍賣交易,與所有權進行了密切討論,我們在今年第二季度加速了這些交易。
So this was something that was targeted, sort of a rifle shot, I would say, by us and it was proactively taken off the market by us in that manner. So that's how it happens.
所以這是我們瞄準的東西,我想說,有點像步槍射擊,我們以這種方式主動將其從市場上撤下。事情就是這樣發生的。
Why us? I think the sellers would tell you, obviously, they felt there was a fair economic transaction, but I think they felt our ability to develop and really turn the entire network into their dream of what it can become was -- they had a high degree of confidence in our ability to execute on that. And I believe that's why they would tell you that they chose us as well as what they felt was a cultural fit for their employees and their leadership who is staying with us. So I think those would be the major reasons.
為什麼是我們?我想賣家會告訴你,很明顯,他們覺得這是一個公平的經濟交易,但我認為他們覺得我們有能力開發並真正將整個網絡變成他們的夢想——他們有很高的學位對我們執行此任務的能力充滿信心。我相信這就是為什麼他們會告訴您他們選擇了我們,以及他們認為我們的文化適合他們的員工和與我們在一起的領導層。所以我認為這些是主要原因。
Operator
Operator
The next question is from Tobey Sommer of Truist.
下一個問題來自 Truist 的托比·索默 (Tobey Sommer)。
Tobey O'Brien Sommer - MD
Tobey O'Brien Sommer - MD
I'm just wondering if you see the decline in open RECs and voluntary turnover as attributable to sort of changes in the labor market, external market-related changes or your own internal actions. So I'm not sure if your internal actions have already yielded results or sort of more on the come?
我只是想知道您是否認為開放 REC 和自願流動的下降歸因於勞動力市場的變化、外部市場相關的變化或您自己的內部行動。所以我不確定你的內部行動是否已經產生了結果,或者即將產生更多結果?
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Yes. I mean, that's a fair question, Tobey. I would tell you that I think our internal actions are more on the come. I think we've had some impact, but that would be misleading to take 50% or more of the credit internally, that would be inaccurate. I think as we get 6 months out from now, that will be much more impactful internally. And I do think it is a function of the labor market easing somewhat, although, as we've said, that continues to remain tight. But definitely, it's not where it was in Q4 of last year or Q1 of this year, we've definitely seen that.
是的。我的意思是,這是一個公平的問題,托比。我想告訴你,我認為我們的內部行動更多的是即將到來。我認為我們已經產生了一些影響,但是如果將 50% 或更多的功勞歸於內部,那會產生誤導,這是不准確的。我認為 6 個月後,這對內部會產生更大的影響。我確實認為這是勞動力市場有所放鬆的結果,儘管正如我們所說,勞動力市場仍然緊張。但肯定的是,這不是去年第四季度或今年第一季度的情況,我們肯定已經看到了這一點。
So -- well, if I had to put a number, I'd say it's 75% the market, 25% us, I mean, I'm just estimating at that. But it's clearly more external than internal right now. That will pretty rapidly flip.
所以——好吧,如果我必須給出一個數字,我會說這是市場的 75%,我們的 25%,我的意思是,我只是對此進行估計。但現在顯然更多的是外部因素而不是內部因素。這會很快翻轉。
Tobey O'Brien Sommer - MD
Tobey O'Brien Sommer - MD
Great. I appreciate that color. Just one other question on pricing, and then I'll be done. Do you expect the difference in relative price increase in your sort of West Coast markets versus competitive markets? Do you think that spread to be relatively stable? Or do you have an expectation for a widening or contracting in that difference?
偉大的。我很欣賞那種顏色。還有一個關於定價的問題,然後我就講完了。您預計您所在的西海岸市場與競爭市場的相對價格漲幅有何差異?您認為價差相對穩定嗎?或者您預計這種差異會擴大還是縮小?
Mary Anne Whitney - Executive VP & CFO
Mary Anne Whitney - Executive VP & CFO
Well, that certainly will be a function of where inflation ultimately settles out, which dictates real-time or even forward-looking what price increases happen in the competitive markets and influences that spread. And of course, in the CPI-linked markets, it's a look back, right? So those dynamics will dictate that. We know that we'll continue to get the benefit of higher CPI prints coming into this year in the pricing for next year, as we look ahead in those CPI-linked markets.
嗯,這肯定是通貨膨脹最終解決的函數,它決定了競爭市場中價格上漲的實時甚至前瞻性,並影響價差。當然,在與 CPI 相關的市場中,這是一個回顧,對吧?所以這些動態將決定這一點。我們知道,當我們展望那些與 CPI 相關的市場時,我們將在明年的定價中繼續受益於今年更高的 CPI 印刷品。
Operator
Operator
The next question is from Stephanie Yee of JPMorgan.
下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Stephanie Yee。
Stephanie L. Yee - Analyst
Stephanie L. Yee - Analyst
Thanks for all the color on the employee retention. I was wondering if you can provide some color on the customer side, just given the price increases that have been put forth and yes, what you're seeing from your customers from a retention standpoint?
感謝所有對員工保留的關注。我想知道您是否可以在客戶方面提供一些信息,考慮到已經提出的價格上漲,是的,從保留的角度來看,您從客戶那裡看到了什麼?
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Sure. Well, what I would tell you is that our retention continues to be good. We continue to hold sort of in that 85% plus of our price increases that we did early in the year. Any time we can get into that range where it tells us our retention is good and that we haven't exceeded the market, if you will. There are markets where that's not true, but overall it is. Customers, they are experiencing, have experienced significant inflation in their business. And we tend to be a very small part of a businesses and of course, a household's monthly expenses.
當然。好吧,我要告訴你的是,我們的保留率仍然很好。我們繼續維持年初 85% 以上的提價幅度。任何時候我們都能進入這個範圍,這表明我們的保留率很好,而且我們還沒有超過市場,如果你願意的話。有些市場並非如此,但總體而言確實如此。他們正在經歷客戶的業務大幅膨脹。我們往往只是企業的一小部分,當然,也是家庭每月開支的一小部分。
So although 10%, 12% is a big number, when you're talking about it on a $30 residential bill or a $200 commercial bill, you're talking about smaller numbers, $3, $4 numbers on a residential a month or $15, $20 on a commercial bill, that pales in comparison to the increases that they get on their large expenses that are going up at that same 10%, 12%. So I would tell you, customers are seeing input costs from all sectors that have been very high. And so we are, if you will, in line with what they're seeing from their service providers.
因此,雖然10%、12% 是一個很大的數字,但當你談論30 美元的住宅賬單或200 美元的商業賬單時,你談論的是較小的數字,住宅每月3 美元、4 美元或15 美元,商業賬單上的 20 美元,與他們的大筆開支(同樣上漲 10%、12%)相比,顯得相形見絀。所以我想告訴你,客戶看到所有部門的投入成本都非常高。所以,如果你願意的話,我們與他們從服務提供商那裡看到的情況是一致的。
So customers never want to see, which is understandable, their rates increase. And that always drives some tension in that relationship until you can get beyond the immediacy of it. And again, if you're providing service quality, then that makes the acceptance of that rate increase a lot easier, where if you have service quality issues, then obviously, a customer has a very legitimate reason to push back on your rate increase. So we have a heavy focus on service quality, that's a never-ending battle. But the better our service quality, again, a reason to drive down retention and turnover -- improve retention and drive down turnover, the easier it is to retain price.
因此,客戶永遠不想看到他們的費率上漲,這是可以理解的。這總是會在這種關係中帶來一些緊張,直到你能夠超越它的直接性。再說一次,如果你提供服務質量,那麼就更容易接受費率上漲,如果你有服務質量問題,那麼顯然,客戶有非常合理的理由來推遲你的費率上漲。因此,我們非常注重服務質量,這是一場永無休止的戰鬥。但我們的服務質量越好,這也是降低保留率和流動率的一個原因——提高保留率並降低流動率,就越容易保留價格。
Operator
Operator
The next question is from Harold Antor of Jefferies.
下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Harold Antor。
Harold Antor - Equity Associate
Harold Antor - Equity Associate
This is Harold Antor on for Stephanie Moore. Just wanted to ask if you could talk about any tech or software automation investments that the company making or areas you think need attention as you look into the back half for the rest of the year?
我是哈羅德·安托 (Harold Antor) 為斯蒂芬妮·摩爾 (Stephanie Moore) 配音。只是想問您是否可以談談公司進行的任何技術或軟件自動化投資,或者您認為在今年下半年的情況下需要關注的領域?
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Sure. It was a little hard to hear. I apologize. But I think your question was about investments in software the company is making in the back half of the year. And Harold, we are -- we have made an investment in our entire recruiting platform software that we brought online in July, which is a significant enhancement to what we had been doing up until then, and that is probably most significant.
當然。有點難聽。我道歉。但我認為你的問題是關於公司下半年對軟件的投資。哈羅德,我們對整個招聘平台軟件進行了投資,該軟件於 7 月份上線,這對我們迄今為止所做的工作來說是一個重大增強,這可能是最重要的。
We also have made significant investments in the telematics that are coming out of our truck into for both real-time safety, productivity and customer satisfaction. So -- but these are all -- the way we think about these, these are all normal course investments that we make year in and year out sort of in a continuous improvement process. There is nothing that is significant that we're calling out in our expense or our CapEx about this because it's just all normal course.
我們還對卡車遠程信息處理進行了大量投資,以實現實時安全、生產力和客戶滿意度。所以——但這些都是——我們思考這些的方式,這些都是我們在持續改進過程中年復一年進行的正常投資。我們在費用或資本支出中沒有什麼重要的事情需要注意,因為這只是正常過程。
Operator
Operator
This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Ron Mittelstaedt for closing remarks.
我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回羅恩·米特爾施塔特 (Ron Mittelstaedt) 致閉幕詞。
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Ronald J. Mittelstaedt - Founder, CEO, President & Director
Okay. If there are no further questions, on behalf of our entire management team, we appreciate your listening to and interest in the call today. Mary Anne and Joe are available today to answer any direct questions we did not cover that we are allowed to answer under Regulation FD, Regulation G and applicable securities laws in Canada. Thank you again. We look forward to seeing you at our upcoming investor conferences or hearing from you on our next earnings call.
好的。如果沒有其他問題,我們謹代表我們整個管理團隊感謝您收聽並關註今天的電話會議。 Mary Anne 和 Joe 今天可以回答我們未涵蓋但根據 FD 法規、G 法規和加拿大適用證券法允許我們回答的任何直接問題。再次感謝你。我們期待在即將舉行的投資者會議上見到您,或在下一次財報電話會議上聽到您的聲音。
Operator
Operator
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。