華納兄弟探索 (WBD) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

HBO Max 是沃爾特迪斯尼公司的一項新流媒體服務,它提供 HBO 的精華以及一系列新的和經典的電視節目和電影。該服務於 2020 年 5 月在美國推出,並將於 2023 年在拉丁美洲推出。該公司正在大力投資內容、體育、新聞和非小說類節目。它還組建了一支強大的領導團隊,並正在進行結構和戰略變革以支持其發展。憑藉其強大的資產組合和經驗豐富的團隊,華特迪士尼公司已準備好實現其成為世界上最偉大的媒體和娛樂公司的目標。

HBO Max 將繼續致力於改善產品的用戶體驗,通過添加一個端卡來推薦額外的節目供用戶欣賞。作者認為,這將有助於公司繼續取得成功。該公司還專注於為其直接面向消費者的平台 HBO Max 創建更多內容。儘管存在全球宏觀逆風,但鑑於其平台和覆蓋面的強大價值主張以及數字廣告解決方案的順風,NBCUniversal 感覺處於有利地位。 AT&T 首席執行官大衛麥卡蒂週二回答了投資者的提問,涉及一系列話題,包括該公司最近決定放棄亞馬遜的頻道、重新啟動 HBO Max 以及公司未來面臨的艱難決定。

在回答 LightShed Partners 的 Rich Greenfield 提出的問題時,McAtee 承認 AT&T 在以前的管理下犯了錯誤,但表示該公司現在正在抓住時機並做出必要的改變以在未來取得成功。他還表示,放棄亞馬遜頻道的決定是為 HBO Max 的成功而做出的,明年 HBO Max 的重新啟動仍在進行中。

當被問及他所說的“艱難決定”是什麼意思時,麥卡蒂說,公司面臨的決定之一是是否續簽他們的 NBA 權利。他表示,鑑於電視行業的現狀,AT&T 必須權衡保留權利的成本和收益,目前尚未做出任何決定。

總體而言,McAtee 似乎對 AT&T 的未來和公司正在做出的決定持樂觀態度。他相信他們走在正確的軌道上,公司處於良好的位置,在未來幾年取得成功。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thanks for standing by, and welcome to the Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Additionally, please be advised that today's conference call is being recorded.

    女士們先生們,感謝您的支持,歡迎參加華納兄弟探索公司 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。 (操作員說明)此外,請注意今天的電話會議正在錄音。

  • I would like to hand the conference over to Mr. Andrew Slabin, Executive Vice President, Global Investor Strategy. Sir, you may now begin.

    我想將會議交給全球投資者戰略執行副總裁 Andrew Slabin 先生。先生,您現在可以開始了。

  • Andrew T. Slabin - EVP of Global Investor Strategy

    Andrew T. Slabin - EVP of Global Investor Strategy

  • Good afternoon, and welcome to Warner Bros. Discovery's Q3 earnings call. With me today is David Zaslav, President and CEO; Gunnar Wiedenfels, our CFO; and JB Perrette, CEO and President, Global Streaming and Games.

    下午好,歡迎來到華納兄弟探索公司第三季度財報電話會議。今天和我在一起的是總裁兼首席執行官 David Zaslav; Gunnar Wiedenfels,我們的首席財務官; JB Perrette,全球流媒體和遊戲首席執行官兼總裁。

  • Before we start, I'd like to remind you that today's conference call will include forward-looking statements that we make pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The forward-looking statements include comments regarding the company's future business plans, prospects and financial performance. These statements are made based on management's current knowledge and assumptions about future events and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations. In providing projections and other forward-looking statements, the company disclaims any intent or obligation to update them.

    在我們開始之前,我想提醒您,今天的電話會議將包括我們根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》的安全港條款做出的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述包括對公司的未來的商業計劃、前景和財務業績。這些陳述是基於管理層目前對未來事件的了解和假設做出的,涉及可能導致實際結果與我們的預期產生重大差異的風險和不確定性。在提供預測和其他前瞻性陳述時,公司不承擔任何更新它們的意圖或義務。

  • For additional information on important factors that could affect these expectations, please see our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2021, and our quarterly Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2022, that we expect to file with the SEC today as well as our subsequent filings made with the SEC. A copy of our Q3 earnings release, trending schedule and accompanying slide deck is available on our website at ir.wbd.com.

    有關可能影響這些預期的重要因素的更多信息,請參閱我們截至 2021 年 12 月 31 日止年度的 10-K 表格和我們預計將提交的截至 2022 年 9 月 30 日季度的季度 10-Q 表格SEC 今天以及我們隨後向 SEC 提交的文件。我們的網站 ir.wbd.com 上提供了我們的第三季度收益發布、趨勢時間表和隨附幻燈片的副本。

  • And with that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to David.

    有了這個,我很高興將電話轉給大衛。

  • David M. Zaslav - President, CEO & Director

    David M. Zaslav - President, CEO & Director

  • Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Let me start by saying I am pleased with all that we have accomplished in just our first 6 months as a combined company. We have had to work through a number of really tough issues, some anticipated, some unexpected. And we continue to make the difficult decisions that we know are necessary to position our company for long-term growth and success.

    大家好,感謝您加入我們。首先讓我說,我對我們在合併後的頭 6 個月內所取得的一切感到滿意。我們不得不解決一些非常棘手的問題,有些是預料之中的,有些是出乎意料的。我們將繼續做出艱難的決定,我們知道這些決定對於我們公司的長期發展和成功是必要的。

  • As you would expect with a deal of this magnitude, in a dynamic and changing industry and amidst a more challenging economic environment, a significant amount of change is required. In fact, we see this as presenting a meaningful opportunity, one that we have seized wholeheartedly. This is an opportunity to look inside each one of our businesses and really determine what's working, what's not working. Is it structured properly? Does it have the right assets, people and resources to be effective and the best of class in the environment we face today? None of this is easy, and nothing happens overnight.

    正如您對如此規模的交易所期望的那樣,在一個充滿活力且不斷變化的行業以及更具挑戰性的經濟環境中,需要進行大量的變革。事實上,我們認為這是一個有意義的機會,我們全心全意地抓住了這個機會。這是一個深入了解我們每一項業務並真正確定哪些工作有效、哪些無效的機會。它的結構是否正確?它是否擁有合適的資產、人員和資源以在我們今天面臨的環境中發揮作用並達到一流水平?這一切都不容易,也沒有一夜之間發生。

  • That said, we are fully committed and laser-focused. I believe we have the strongest hand in the industry in terms of the completeness and quality of our portfolio of assets and IP across sports, news, nonfiction and entertainment in virtually every region of the globe and in every language.

    也就是說,我們完全致力於並專注於激光。我相信我們在體育、新聞、非小說和娛樂領域的資產和知識產權組合的完整性和質量方面擁有業內最強大的實力,幾乎涵蓋全球每個地區和每種語言。

  • 6 months in, we now have a full, strong and energized leadership team in place. And we are confident we have the right strategy and are making the structural and strategic changes to successfully achieve our goal of becoming the greatest media and entertainment company in the world, capable of generating significantly higher earnings and free cash flow than we are today and creating real long-term sustainable shareholder value.

    6 個月後,我們現在擁有一個完整、強大且充滿活力的領導團隊。我們相信我們擁有正確的戰略,並正在進行結構和戰略變革,以成功實現我們成為世界上最偉大的媒體和娛樂公司的目標,能夠產生比今天更高的收益和自由現金流,並創造真正的長期可持續股東價值。

  • Last quarter, we laid out 3 strategic priorities that serve as our guiding principles and influence our decision-making strategically, operationally and financially.

    上個季度,我們制定了 3 個戰略重點,作為我們的指導原則,並在戰略、運營和財務方面影響我們的決策。

  • Starting with content. Content is the heart of everything we do, and we are investing at historic levels in the highest quality storytelling, sports and news. All of the hard work we are doing now will allow us to continue making meaningful investments in content to support our plans going forward. Our best-in-class portfolio is led by the strongest content and creative executives in the business. And one of the things that differentiates these leaders is that they do more than just pick shows and write checks. They support and nurture our creatives and talent and help them to bring their bold visions to life on screens large and small. They are doers who have spent time in the control room developing films and TV shows, writing scripts, working closely with talent and creatives. They know their crafts inside and out, what it takes to create compelling, unforgettable experiences for fans worldwide. And they know how to replicate that success and storytelling over and over.

    從內容開始。內容是我們所做一切的核心,我們正在以歷史水平投資最高質量的故事講述、體育和新聞。我們現在所做的所有努力將使我們能夠繼續對內容進行有意義的投資,以支持我們未來的計劃。我們一流的產品組合由業內最強大的內容和創意高管領導。讓這些領導者與眾不同的一件事是,他們所做的不僅僅是挑選節目和寫支票。他們支持和培養我們的創意和人才,並幫助他們在大大小小的屏幕上將大膽的願景變為現實。他們是實干家,在控制室裡開發電影和電視節目、編寫劇本、與人才和創意人員密切合作。他們對自己的手藝瞭如指掌,知道如何為全球粉絲創造引人入勝、難忘的體驗。他們知道如何一遍又一遍地複製成功和講故事。

  • No one embodies this creative commitment more than our new heads of DC Studios, James Gunn and Peter Safran, who have said that running DC Studios is a passion project, not just a job. James is a brilliant storyteller who has the distinction of being the first and only filmmaker to direct a movie for both Marvel and DC. Peter is a prolific producer whose credits include DC's highest grossing movie, Aquaman, as well as the entire Conjuring universe, the most successful horror franchise of all time. We could not be more thrilled to have them join our leadership team, and I'm excited for what is to come.

    沒有人比我們的 DC Studios 新任負責人 James Gunn 和 Peter Safran 更能體現這種創造性承諾,他們曾說過運營 DC Studios 是一項充滿激情的項目,而不僅僅是一份工作。詹姆斯是一位出色的講故事者,他是第一位也是唯一一位同時為漫威和 DC 導演電影的電影製片人。彼得是一位多產的製片人,他的作品包括 DC 票房最高的電影《海王》,以及整個《招魂》宇宙,這是有史以來最成功的恐怖系列。讓他們加入我們的領導團隊,我們感到無比激動,我對即將發生的事情感到興奮。

  • I've spent a lot of time over the last few months with James and Peter, talking about our strategy and long-term plans for the future of DC across TV, animation and film. They have a powerful vision in blueprint that will drive a more unified creative approach. It will enable us to realize the full value of one of the world's most iconic franchises. They're hard at work right now.

    在過去的幾個月裡,我花了很多時間與詹姆斯和彼得一起討論我們在電視、動畫和電影領域對 DC 未來的戰略和長期計劃。他們在藍圖中擁有強大的願景,這將推動更統一的創意方法。它將使我們能夠實現世界上最具標誌性的特許經營權之一的全部價值。他們現在正在努力工作。

  • Our teams company-wide are working hard every day to ensure that Warner Bros. Discovery is the place creatives choose to come and tell their stories. We have a huge advantage: Warner Bros. with its 100-year legacy and ability to launch films in every corner of the globe, tied together with Warner Bros. TV, the biggest maker of television in the world, and HBO, 2 of the most prolific storytelling studios in the world. Together, it creates an unparalleled full-service entertainment ecosystem.

    我們全公司的團隊每天都在努力工作,以確保華納兄弟探索中心是創意人員選擇來講述他們的故事的地方。我們有一個巨大的優勢:華納兄弟擁有 100 年的悠久歷史,並有能力在全球各個角落髮行電影,與世界上最大的電視製造商華納兄弟電視公司和全球最大的電視製造商 HBO 並肩作戰。世界上最多產的講故事工作室。它共同創造了一個無與倫比的全方位服務娛樂生態系統。

  • To that end, we recently signed a long-term deal with Matt Reeves, who cowrote and directed The Batman and created the upcoming new series, The Penguin, for HBO Max. Todd Phillips will begin filming the highly anticipated Joker sequel next month. We signed an overall deal with Quinta Brunson, a trailblazer who brought us the hugely popular Emmy-winning TV series Abbott Elementary. And our longtime partner, the prolific Chuck Lorre, is producing his first series for HBO Max, the upcoming comedy How to Be a Bookie with Sebastian Maniscalco, just to name a few.

    為此,我們最近與馬特·里夫斯(Matt Reeves)簽署了一項長期協議,他共同創作並執導了《蝙蝠俠》,並為 HBO Max 創作了即將上映的新劇集《企鵝》。托德菲利普斯將於下個月開始拍攝備受期待的小丑續集。我們與開拓者 Quinta Brunson 簽署了一項全面協議,他為我們帶來了廣受歡迎的艾美獎獲獎電視劇 Abbott Elementary。我們的長期合作夥伴,多產的 Chuck Lorre 正在為 HBO Max 製作他的第一個系列,即將上映的喜劇如何與 Sebastian Maniscalco 合作,僅舉幾例。

  • We're very excited about our robust film slate for next year. We are back in business with a lineup of features that is truly supportive of a distinct theatrical window. The slate includes The Flash; Shazam; Dune 2; Aquaman; Wonka, a prequel to the classic film; The Color Purple produced by Steven Spielberg, Oprah Winfrey and Quincy Jones; and Blue Beetle, DC's first superhero, will be starting a Latino character directed by Angel Manuel Soto; as well as exciting new series for HBO and HBO Max, including The Idol from the brilliant Sam Levinson, who created Euphoria, and starring The Weeknd; The Last of Us, based on the postapocalyptic video game; along with new scripted original series for TV such as Lazarus Project set to air on TNT next year.

    我們對明年的強勁電影計劃感到非常興奮。我們通過一系列真正支持獨特的影院窗口的功能重新開始營業。名單包括 The Flash;沙贊;沙丘 2;海王; 《旺卡》,經典電影的前傳;由史蒂文·斯皮爾伯格、奧普拉·溫弗瑞和昆西·瓊斯製作的《紫色》; DC 的第一位超級英雄 Blue Beetle 將開始由 Angel Manuel Soto 執導的拉丁裔角色;以及令人興奮的 HBO 和 HBO Max 新系列,包括來自創造 Euphoria 的傑出 Sam Levinson 和 The Weeknd 主演的 The Idol;最後生還者,基於後世界末日的電子遊戲;以及新的劇本原創電視連續劇,如拉撒路計劃將於明年在 TNT 播出。

  • We also have projects underway with incredible on-screen talent, including Joaquin Phoenix and Lady Gaga for Joker 2. Ryan Gosling has joined Margot Robbie for Ocean's Eleven prequel. Robert Pattinson will return as Batman. Robin Thede's Emmy-winning HBO comedy series, A Black Lady Sketch Show, has begun production on its fourth season. The award-winning cast of Succession will return next spring for its fourth season also. And the list goes on and on.

    我們還有一些令人難以置信的銀幕天才項目正在進行中,包括 Joaquin Phoenix 和 Lady Gaga 的小丑 2。Ryan Gosling 已加入 Margot Robbie 的 Ocean's Eleven 前傳。羅伯特帕丁森將以蝙蝠俠的身份回歸。羅賓·泰德 (Robin Thede) 獲得艾美獎的 HBO 喜劇系列片《黑人女士素描秀》(A Black Lady Sketch Show) 已開始製作第四季。屢獲殊榮的《繼承》演員陣容也將於明年春天回歸第四季。這樣的例子不勝枚舉。

  • Our unparalleled IP also allows us to grow our consumer products business and extend our characters into games, one of the fastest-growing media segments with titles such as the much-anticipated Hogwarts Legacy game built around the amazing world of Harry Potter and launching in the first quarter next year, and leveraging incredible IP such as Mortal Kombat, which is celebrating its 30th anniversary this year and still going strong.

    我們無與倫比的 IP 還使我們能夠發展我們的消費品業務並將我們的角色擴展到遊戲,這是增長最快的媒體領域之一,其標題包括備受期待的霍格沃茨遺產遊戲,圍繞哈利波特的神奇世界打造,並在明年第一季度,並利用令人難以置信的 IP,例如 Mortal Kombat,今年將慶祝其成立 30 週年,並且仍然保持強勁勢頭。

  • On the sports side, we just re-signed Ernie Johnson, Charles Barkley and Kenny Smith for multiyear deals. We've also got a long-term deal in place with Shaq. We're thrilled to have the 4 of them continue to host TNT's flagship studio show, Inside the NBA, I believe the best show in all of sports. And this further reflects our deep commitment to sports and providing fans with the programming they can't live without.

    在體育方面,我們剛剛續簽了厄尼·約翰遜、查爾斯·巴克利和肯尼·史密斯的多年合同。我們還與沙克達成了長期協議。我們很高興他們 4 人繼續主持 TNT 的旗艦演播室節目《Inside the NBA》,我相信這是所有體育運動中最好的節目。這進一步反映了我們對體育的堅定承諾,並為球迷提供他們離不開的節目。

  • CNN's new show, CNN This Morning with hosts Don Lemon, Poppy Harlow and Kaitlan Collins, kicked off this week with great buzz. No one knows morning television like Chris Licht, and the show is one of the many building blocks he and his team are putting in place as Chris leads CNN into the future with great courage and strategic vision.

    CNN 的新節目“CNN This Morning”與主持人 Don Lemon、Poppy Harlow 和 Kaitlan Collins 合作,本週在轟動聲中拉開帷幕。沒有人像 Chris Licht 那樣了解早間電視節目,而該節目是他和他的團隊在 Chris 以極大的勇氣和戰略眼光帶領 CNN 走向未來的眾多基石之一。

  • Our second strategic priority is maximizing the overall value of our content through an omnichannel distribution and monetization strategy. The fact is we cover more surface area than any other media company, and that optionality allows us to distribute our content in multiple ways. No matter where consumers go or what their preferences are, premium, pay-TV, free-to-air, theatrical, streaming, gaming, we are there around the globe and able to monetize our content and IP in ways that maximize audience and profitability. Optionality has never been more important, and we continue to refine what the right windowing and distribution model is so that we can reach even more consumers and maximize profitability.

    我們的第二個戰略重點是通過全渠道分銷和貨幣化戰略最大化我們內容的整體價值。事實上,我們比任何其他媒體公司覆蓋更多的表面區域,並且這種可選性使我們能夠以多種方式分發我們的內容。無論消費者去哪里或他們的偏好是什麼,付費電視、免費電視、戲劇、流媒體、遊戲,我們都在全球範圍內,能夠以最大化觀眾和盈利能力的方式將我們的內容和 IP 貨幣化.選擇性從未像現在這樣重要,我們將繼續完善正確的窗口和分銷模式,以便我們能夠接觸更多的消費者並最大限度地提高盈利能力。

  • As we said last quarter, we will be aggressively attacking the AVOD market with our own FAST offering in 2023. As the company with the largest film and TV library in the industry, we have a unique opportunity to increase our addressable market and drive real value, and we plan to move quickly. Stay tuned.

    正如我們上個季度所說,我們將在 2023 年通過我們自己的 FAST 產品積極進軍 AVOD 市場。作為擁有業內最大影視庫的公司,我們有一個獨特的機會來擴大我們的潛在市場並推動真正的價值,我們計劃迅速行動。敬請關注。

  • Finally, our third strategic priority is operating as one company. One plus one does equal more than 2 when it comes to working collaboratively and supporting individual efforts across our many businesses. In many respects, this is a significant departure from the previous norm. We've already had some real success with our cross-promotional initiatives such as with Shark Week, Elvis, House of the Dragon and Black Adam. The fact is with our huge viewership share in the U.S., our broad portfolio of networks and global platforms around the world, we have an amazing ability to efficiently cross-promote across our lineup.

    最後,我們的第三個戰略重點是作為一家公司運營。在協作工作和支持我們眾多業務中的個人努力方面,一加一確實大於 2。在許多方面,這與以前的規範大相徑庭。我們的交叉推廣計劃已經取得了一些真正的成功,例如鯊魚週、貓王、龍之屋和黑亞當。事實上,憑藉我們在美國的巨大收視份額、我們在全球範圍內廣泛的網絡和全球平台組合,我們擁有在我們的陣容中有效地交叉推廣的驚人能力。

  • Our one team philosophy is a core tenet to the critical work we continue to do to transform the organization for the future. And nowhere is this more evident than with our ongoing commitment to driving synergy enterprise-wide. Success requires all hands on deck, and we're seeing it. In fact, I'm pleased to share that we have increased our synergy target to at least $3.5 billion from $3 billion.

    我們的團隊理念是我們為實現未來組織轉型而繼續開展的關鍵工作的核心原則。這一點在我們持續致力於推動企業範圍內的協同效應方面表現得最為明顯。成功需要大家齊心協力,我們正在見證這一點。事實上,我很高興地宣布,我們已將協同效應目標從 30 億美元提高到至少 35 億美元。

  • Gunnar will take you through the details, but the key point is this is more than just a dollar tally of what we've saved on an expense line. It is more than just a number. We are fundamentally rethinking and reimagining how this organization is structured, and we are empowering our business unit leadership to transform their organizations with an owner's mindset and a view on quality and accountability. And you see this reflected in our numbers and some of the strategic decisions we are making.

    Gunnar 將帶您了解詳細信息,但關鍵是這不僅僅是我們在支出項目上節省的一美元。它不僅僅是一個數字。我們正在從根本上重新思考和重新構想這個組織的結構,我們正在授權我們的業務部門領導以所有者的心態和對質量和責任的看法來改變他們的組織。你會看到這反映在我們的數字和我們正在製定的一些戰略決策中。

  • We're making real progress, and we're driving toward the endgame. Like everyone in our industry, we are managing through some cyclical headwinds and secular challenges, including lower-than-expected ad sales and faster pay-TV subscriber declines. Gunnar will say more, but I do want to make a couple of quick points.

    我們正在取得真正的進展,我們正在朝著最後階段前進。與我們行業中的每個人一樣,我們正在應對一些週期性逆風和長期挑戰,包括低於預期的廣告銷售和更快的付費電視用戶下降。 Gunnar 會說更多,但我確實想快速說明幾點。

  • First, regarding our advertising sales, which have been impacted by a number of factors that include the macroeconomic downturn and the strength of the NFL and college football on other networks. The good news is on Turner, we just had Major League Baseball's American League Division and Championship Series on TBS. Both saw substantial double-digit growth in viewership compared to last year, though a shortened Championship Series wasn't ideal.

    首先,關於我們的廣告銷售,它受到許多因素的影響,包括宏觀經濟衰退以及 NFL 和大學橄欖球在其他網絡上的實力。好消息是關於特納的,我們剛剛在 TBS 上觀看了美國職業棒球大聯盟的美國聯盟分區和冠軍系列賽。與去年相比,兩者的收視率都出現了兩位數的大幅增長,儘管縮短的冠軍系列賽並不理想。

  • The NBA is off to a great start on TNT, delivering its most watched regular season coverage since 2017 with viewership up 29% season to date. And with March Madness in the spring, along with our first ever coverage of the Stanley Cup Finals, from now through the summer, we have a large share of professional sports, both here in the U.S. and internationally.

    NBA 在 TNT 上開局良好,提供了自 2017 年以來收視率最高的常規賽報導,本賽季迄今為止收視率增長了 29%。隨著春季的瘋狂三月,以及我們首次報導斯坦利杯決賽,從現在到夏季,我們在美國和國際上都有很大一部分職業體育運動。

  • On the advertising side, we had a great upfront where we outperformed the market, and we spent the last 4 months reorganizing the ad sales team. We had a broad restructuring, including having sports and news be organized and sold with entertainment and nonfiction as one full-service offering. It was an awful lot of work, and we're glad to have it behind us. The team is led by the superb Jon Steinlauf, who has a great track record of outperforming the market and did so for us in the 5 years following the Scripps acquisition as he led our team at Discovery.

    在廣告方面,我們有一個很好的前期表現,我們的表現優於市場,我們在過去的 4 個月裡重組了廣告銷售團隊。我們進行了廣泛的重組,包括將體育和新聞與娛樂和非小說類作為一項全方位服務進行組織和銷售。這是一項非常艱鉅的工作,我們很高興有它在我們身後。該團隊由出色的 Jon Steinlauf 領導,他在表現優於市場方面有著出色的記錄,在收購 Scripps 後的 5 年裡,他在 Discovery 領導我們的團隊時為我們做到了這一點。

  • So the team is now in place, attacking the market with the full suite of tools every way a brand wants to engage with consumers, whether through traditional commercials, product placement or dynamic targeting. We will offer those touch points.

    因此,該團隊現在已經到位,以品牌希望與消費者互動的每一種方式(無論是通過傳統廣告、產品植入還是動態定位)使用全套工具進軍市場。我們將提供這些接觸點。

  • With respect to direct-to-consumer, we added nearly 3 million net global direct-to-consumer subs this quarter, and we expect a healthy inflection with the launch of our combined service and expanded global footprint. With that, we are excited to announce that we have moved up our U.S. launch date from summer of 2023 to spring. We've been very hard at work. We can't wait to make the service available to consumers around the globe and get the business running on all cylinders.

    在直接面向消費者方面,本季度我們增加了近 300 萬個全球直接面向消費者的淨訂閱用戶,我們預計隨著我們聯合服務的推出和全球足蹟的擴大,將出現健康的轉折。因此,我們很高興地宣布,我們已將美國的發布日期從 2023 年夏季提前到春季。我們一直在努力工作。我們迫不及待地想讓全球消費者都可以使用這項服務,並讓業務在所有氣缸上運行。

  • While our team is hard at work preparing for the launch of our combined offering, we're also actively experimenting and testing our hypotheses about the future product, in large part to address some of the deficiencies of the existing platform. And we're seeing some positive signals.

    雖然我們的團隊正在努力準備推出我們的組合產品,但我們也在積極試驗和測試我們對未來產品的假設,這在很大程度上是為了解決現有平台的一些缺陷。我們看到了一些積極的信號。

  • A few quick examples. One is related to the product user experience. Previously, when a series concluded on HBO Max, there was no end card that would then recommend additional programs for the user to enjoy, an obvious way to drive greater consumer engagement. We've started rolling this out and are already seeing very promising engagement uplift.

    幾個簡單的例子。一是與產品用戶體驗有關。以前,當一個系列節目在 HBO Max 上結束時,沒有端卡會推薦其他節目供用戶欣賞,這是推動更大消費者參與度的明顯方式。我們已經開始推出這項服務,並且已經看到非常有希望的參與度提升。

  • A second example, around content. We've begun experimenting with bringing d+ content on to HBO Max, starting with select Magnolia Network shows such as Fixer Upper: The Castle, which was a top 5 show after only its first few days on the service. These early green shoots bolster our strategic thesis that the 2 content offerings work well together, and when combined, should drive greater engagement, lower churn and higher customer lifetime value.

    第二個例子,圍繞內容。我們已經開始嘗試將 d+ 內容引入 HBO Max,從精選的 Magnolia Network 節目開始,例如 Fixer Upper: The Castle,該節目僅在服務的前幾天就進入了前 5 名。這些早期的萌芽支持了我們的戰略論點,即這兩種內容產品可以很好地協同工作,並且當結合起來時,應該會推動更大的參與度、更低的流失率和更高的客戶生命週期價值。

  • And lastly, on churn. We've implemented a number of initiatives to improve customer retention, and these have helped drive our voluntary churn rates to record lows in the last few weeks. We've still got a long way to go, but these early signs are certainly encouraging.

    最後,關於客戶流失。我們實施了多項舉措來提高客戶保留率,這些舉措幫助我們的自願流失率在過去幾週內降至創紀錄的低點。我們還有很長的路要走,但這些早期跡象肯定令人鼓舞。

  • As we said, we plan to roll out the new service here in the U.S., followed by Latin America in 2023, then in Europe and APAC thereafter. We see significant opportunity across the globe, and we're excited to resume expanding our distribution in countries where we are currently not represented. As you would expect, we made the strategic decision to hold off on active expansion until our new offering is set to launch.

    正如我們所說,我們計劃在美國推出這項新服務,然後在 2023 年在拉丁美洲推出,然後在歐洲和亞太地區推出。我們在全球範圍內看到了巨大的機遇,我們很高興能夠恢復在我們目前沒有代表的國家/地區擴大我們的分銷。正如您所期望的那樣,我們做出了在新產品推出之前推遲積極擴張的戰略決定。

  • Before I turn it over to Gunnar, I was recently asked if I thought the golden age of content was over. And I said absolutely not. There's nothing more important than content. People are consuming more content than they ever have, but it has to be great content. It's no longer about how much. It's about how good. And ultimately, it is the consumer who tells us what is good. And the consumer is telling us right now, with House of the Dragon, Euphoria, Batman, Harry Potter, Friends, Big Bang Theory, you take a look at the portfolio of tentpole assets across Warner Bros. Discovery, and the breadth is large, and the opportunity is real. No one has a better or more recognizable hand of content, IP, brands, franchises and personalities than we do.

    在我把它交給 Gunnar 之前,最近有人問我是否認為內容的黃金時代已經結束。我說絕對不是。沒有什麼比內容更重要。人們消費的內容比以往任何時候都多,但它必須是很棒的內容。這不再是多少。這是關於有多好。最終,是消費者告訴我們什麼是好的。消費者現在告訴我們,《龍之屋》、《快感》、《蝙蝠俠》、《哈利波特》、《老友記》、《生活大爆炸》,你看看華納兄弟探索公司的觸角資產組合,廣度很大,機會是真實的。沒有人比我們擁有更好或更知名的內容、IP、品牌、特許經營權和個性。

  • That said, I believe the grand experiment, chasing subs at any cost, is over. Let's face it. The strategy to collapse all windows, starve linear and theatrical and spend money with abandon while making a fraction in return, all in the service of growing sub numbers, has ultimately proven, in our view, to be deeply flawed. We believe there is a real opportunity to do things differently, to deliver the content consumers want and will pay for while getting the full value of our offering. As we said last quarter, our focus is on delivering $1 billion of EBITDA in streaming by 2025, and we expect to make significant progress toward this goal next year. Profitability, not purely sub count, is our benchmark for success.

    也就是說,我相信不惜一切代價追逐潛艇的宏偉實驗已經結束。面對現實吧。在我們看來,為了滿足不斷增長的子用戶數量而倒塌所有窗口、讓線性和戲劇性的節目挨餓、大手大腳地花錢而只賺取一小部分回報的策略最終證明是存在嚴重缺陷的。我們相信確實有機會以不同的方式做事,提供消費者想要並願意付費的內容,同時獲得我們產品的全部價值。正如我們上個季度所說,我們的重點是到 2025 年在流媒體領域實現 10 億美元的 EBITDA,我們預計明年將在實現這一目標方面取得重大進展。盈利能力,而不是純粹的子計數,是我們成功的基準。

  • While we've got lots more work to do and some difficult decisions still ahead, we have total conviction in the opportunity before us. At Warner Bros. Discovery, we've got the best assets in the industry, reach that extends from premium, basic pay-TV and free-to-air to theatrical, streaming, consumer products and gaming, exceptionally talented people across this great company and the right strategy and financial framework to set us up for long-term success.

    雖然我們還有很多工作要做,一些艱難的決定還在前面,但我們對擺在我們面前的機會充滿信心。在 Warner Bros. Discovery,我們擁有業內最好的資產,覆蓋範圍從優質、基本的付費電視和免費廣播到影院、流媒體、消費產品和遊戲,這家偉大公司的人才以及正確的戰略和財務框架,為我們的長期成功做好準備。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to Gunnar, and he'll walk you through the financials for the quarter.

    有了這個,我會把它交給 Gunnar,他會帶你了解本季度的財務狀況。

  • Gunnar Wiedenfels - Senior EVP & CFO

    Gunnar Wiedenfels - Senior EVP & CFO

  • Thank you, David, and thank you, everyone, for joining us this afternoon. I'd like to start out by building upon what David said earlier. We are very pleased with our overall synergy program and the broad canvas on which we are transforming this company.

    謝謝大衛,謝謝大家今天下午加入我們。我想從大衛之前所說的開始。我們對我們的整體協同計劃和我們正在改造這家公司的廣闊畫布感到非常滿意。

  • To that extent, I'm now confident to commit to a $3.5 billion synergy number as we have had an opportunity to further assess our operations in more detail and refine our work stream plans. That means we are now adding $500 million of incremental potential beyond the target of $3 billion, and we are still working on detailing out the financial impact of the list of further initiatives beyond what has already been quantified. As always, I will keep you updated as these plans reach the level of detail and certainty we require for them to be included in our total synergy estimate.

    在這方面,我現在有信心承諾 35 億美元的協同效應,因為我們有機會更詳細地進一步評估我們的運營並完善我們的工作流程計劃。這意味著我們現在在 30 億美元的目標之外增加了 5 億美元的增量潛力,我們仍在努力詳細說明超出已經量化的進一步舉措清單的財務影響。與往常一樣,當這些計劃達到我們要求的詳細程度和確定性時,我會及時通知您,以便將它們包含在我們的總協同效應估計中。

  • Regarding the actual execution of our transformation program, we expect to have realized approximately $750 million in synergies by the end of this year and an incremental year-over-year $2 billion in 2023. From a high level, and as David said, the opportunity at hand goes well beyond just the synergy capture dollar value. This is a fundamental transformation across and throughout the organization, a refocusing on how WBD is organized, how it's managed, how the teams are incentivized and evaluated, all of which results in an ability to pivot and evolve in this dynamic media ecosystem.

    關於我們轉型計劃的實際執行,我們預計到今年年底將實現約 7.5 億美元的協同效應,並在 2023 年同比增加 20 億美元。從高水平來看,正如大衛所說,機會手頭的價值遠遠超出了協同效應捕獲的美元價值。這是整個組織和整個組織的根本轉變,重新關注 WBD 的組織方式、管理方式、團隊的激勵和評估方式,所有這些都導致了在這個動態媒體生態系統中轉向和發展的能力。

  • And we are starting to see the financial impact materialize. The 11% SG&A reduction ex FX in Q3 is an important early proof point, and we are on track for around 20% SG&A reduction in Q4.

    我們開始看到財務影響成為現實。第三季度 SG&A 除外匯外減少 11% 是一個重要的早期證據,我們有望在第四季度減少 20% 左右的 SG&A。

  • We've seen great traction on a number of fronts early on. First, in global marketing efforts such as with television and theatrical releases, House of the Dragon, Elvis and Black Adam most recently leveraging the broad footprint of our owned and operated media assets like never before, helping to drive global awareness in a very cost-efficient and effective way.

    我們很早就在許多方面看到了巨大的吸引力。首先,在電視和戲劇發行等全球營銷工作中,House of the Dragon、Elvis 和 Black Adam 最近以前所未有的方式利用我們擁有和運營的媒體資產的廣泛足跡,幫助以非常低成本的方式提高全球知名度有效和有效的方法。

  • Second, in content workflows, where across WBD, there are numerous teams facilitating the important processes of content customization, languaging, administration of rights, participations and residuals, et cetera. Following substantive analysis, we have made the decision to centralize many of these critical functions and to harmonize the processes across the organization. In some cases, we'll collapse 10 to 12 versions of essentially the same process across the company into one best practice, unlocking hundreds of millions of dollars in efficiency gains.

    其次,在整個 WBD 的內容工作流程中,有許多團隊在促進內容定制、語言、權利管理、參與和剩餘等重要過程。經過實質性分析,我們決定集中其中許多關鍵職能並協調整個組織的流程。在某些情況下,我們會將整個公司基本相同流程的 10 到 12 個版本合併為一個最佳實踐,從而獲得數億美元的效率收益。

  • Third, on the streaming side, the previous strategy was to build largely duplicative organizations between HBO Max and the traditional international business. We have now embraced the powerful combination of global capabilities from our streaming team in areas like product, engineering, data and analytics and marketing, married with local expertise from our international team in areas like distribution, content creation and ad sales. This has already led to a clearer strategic direction, streamlined processes and decision-making while at the same time reducing significant duplicative cost.

    第三,在流媒體方面,之前的策略是在 HBO Max 和傳統國際業務之間建立很大程度上重複的組織。我們現在已經接受了我們的流媒體團隊在產品、工程、數據和分析以及營銷等領域的強大全球能力的強大組合,與我們國際團隊在分銷、內容創作和廣告銷售等領域的本地專業知識相結合。這已經導致了更清晰的戰略方向、簡化的流程和決策,同時顯著降低了重複成本。

  • Fourth, procurement is another great example of how professional management will impact our financial performance. For the first time, there is a full mandate across all of WBD to leverage the outstanding capabilities, experience and expertise of our global procurement team, and we are on track to deliver hundreds of millions of P&L impact. And finally, we've begun the process of streamlining virtually every corporate and supporting function with a lot more to work through into next year and beyond.

    第四,採購是另一個很好的例子,說明專業管理將如何影響我們的財務業績。第一次,整個 WBD 都獲得了充分的授權,以利用我們全球採購團隊的卓越能力、經驗和專業知識,我們有望實現數億的損益影響。最後,我們已經開始精簡幾乎所有公司和支持職能的流程,明年及以後還有很多工作要做。

  • Our focus is on the hard work and the tough decisions in the spirit of repositioning this company operationally and strategically so that in a more constructive market environment, we're better positioned to capture upside revenue opportunities, which, after having restructured our cost base, should result in an amplified impact to our bottom line and in an ultimate earnings power of the company significantly above current levels with real upside for long-term shareholder value.

    我們的重點是本著在運營和戰略上重新定位這家公司的精神,努力工作和艱難的決定,以便在更具建設性的市場環境中,我們能夠更好地抓住上行收入機會,在重組我們的成本基礎後,應該會對我們的底線產生放大的影響,並使公司的最終盈利能力大大高於當前水平,並為長期股東價值帶來真正的上行空間。

  • Turning quickly to the results for the quarter. Given we're still in the first year following the closing of our acquisition, I will discuss all P&L elements on a pro forma combined ex FX basis.

    快速轉向本季度的結果。鑑於我們仍處於收購完成後的第一年,我將在備考綜合外匯基礎上討論所有損益要素。

  • Starting with the studios segment. Studios revenues decreased by 5% due to lower home entertainment revenues and last year benefited from COVID-driven demand, and fewer new releases year-to-date resulted in less theatrical revenues and less titles hitting the home entertainment and pay-one window during the quarter. This was partially offset by a 34% increase in other revenue, thanks to the reopening of our studio tours. The revenue decline was more than offset by lower content expense for theatrical and TV as well as lower marketing expenses from fewer theatrical releases, leading to studios adjusted EBITDA growth of 43%.

    從工作室部分開始。由於家庭娛樂收入下降,工作室收入下降了 5%,去年受益於 COVID 驅動的需求,而今年迄今為止新發行的影片數量減少,導致影院收入減少,家庭娛樂和付費窗口的影片減少四分之一。由於我們工作室之旅的重新開放,這部分被其他收入增長 34% 所抵消。收入下降被戲劇和電視內容費用的下降以及較少的戲劇發行減少的營銷費用所抵消,導致電影公司調整後的 EBITDA 增長 43%。

  • Networks revenues decreased 8%. Specifically, advertising revenues decreased 11% globally, primarily given the softening demand amid well-noted global macro headwinds. We have been quite transparent about the risk in the environment since the summer. Obviously, this is something impacting all players across not only the advertising industry, but the broader economy, which has more or less continued thus far into the fourth quarter. Worth noting are a few items impacting comparability with Q3 last year, namely the Olympics and the NBA playoff schedule creating a few hundred basis points of additional headwind in the third quarter.

    網絡收入下降 8%。具體而言,全球廣告收入下降了 11%,主要是由於全球宏觀不利因素導致需求疲軟。自夏季以來,我們一直對環境風險保持透明。顯然,這不僅會影響廣告行業的所有參與者,還會影響更廣泛的經濟,到目前為止,這種情況或多或少地持續到第四季度。值得注意的是影響與去年第三季度可比性的一些項目,即奧運會和 NBA 季后賽賽程在第三季度造成了數百個基點的額外阻力。

  • Given the strong value proposition of our platforms and reach, tailwinds in digital advertising solutions from products such as dynamic ad insertion and continued pricing opportunities, we feel very well positioned and stand ready for when the market environment improves.

    鑑於我們平台和覆蓋面的強大價值主張、動態廣告插入和持續定價機會等產品對數字廣告解決方案的順風,我們感到處於非常有利的位置,並已為市場環境改善做好準備。

  • Distribution revenues declined 2%, primarily due to pay-TV subscriber declines in the U.S. and lower affiliate rates in certain European markets, partially offset by higher affiliate rates in the U.S. and premium sports packages in Lat Am. Content revenues declined 37% against the prior year comp from sublicensing the Olympics broadcast rights in 2021.

    分銷收入下降 2%,主要是由於美國付費電視訂戶下降和某些歐洲市場較低的會員費率,部分被美國較高的會員費率和拉丁美洲的優質體育套餐所抵消。由於 2021 年轉授奧運會轉播權,內容收入較上年同期下降 37%。

  • Networks adjusted EBITDA decreased 2% as lower content expense primarily due to the Olympics last year as well as lower personnel and marketing costs partially offset the revenue decline.

    Networks 調整後的 EBITDA 下降 2%,主要是由於去年奧運會導致的內容費用下降以及人員和營銷成本的下降部分抵消了收入下降。

  • DTC revenues decreased 6%, predominantly due to the expiration of the Amazon wholesale deal, which we have now fully lapped, partially offset by retail gains. Advertising revenues more than doubled during the quarter driven by subscriber growth on our DTC ad-supported tiers.

    DTC 收入下降了 6%,主要是由於亞馬遜批發交易到期,我們現在已經完全覆蓋,部分被零售收益所抵消。在我們 DTC 廣告支持層的用戶增長的推動下,本季度的廣告收入增加了一倍以上。

  • Cost of revenues increased 22% due to growing programming costs, while SG&A decreased 18% as we continued to take a more measured approach to marketing as well as better coordinating the utilization of the invaluable promotional firepower of our O&O platforms. Adjusted EBITDA losses were $634 million during the quarter, and we continue to expect that 2022 will be the peak year for adjusted EBITDA losses in the segment with healthy improvement next year on the back of cost synergy initiatives and positive inflection in revenue trends following the launch of the newly combined product.

    由於節目成本的增加,收入成本增加了 22%,而 SG&A 下降了 18%,因為我們繼續採取更加謹慎的營銷方法以及更好地協調利用我們的 O&O 平台的寶貴促銷火力。本季度調整後 EBITDA 虧損為 6.34 億美元,我們繼續預計 2022 年將是該部門調整後 EBITDA 虧損的高峰年,由於成本協同舉措和推出後收入趨勢的積極變化,明年將出現健康改善新組合的產品。

  • Turning to consolidated results and free cash flow. Both revenues and adjusted EBITDA decreased 8% during the quarter. And while still down, our year-over-year EBITDA trend saw significant sequential improvement over Q2, and I expect further sequential improvements in Q4 and into 2023.

    轉向綜合結果和自由現金流。本季度收入和調整後 EBITDA 均下降 8%。雖然仍然下降,但我們的 EBITDA 同比趨勢比第二季度顯著改善,我預計第四季度和 2023 年將進一步改善。

  • Reported free cash flow was negative $192 million, and let me provide some more detail here. Cash flow from operations decreased nearly $700 million, primarily due to seasonality from the semiannual cash interest payment on a large portion of the acquisition debt as well as merger and integration-related costs, which totaled nearly $400 million during the quarter, including payout of retention bonuses to legacy WarnerMedia employees put in place prior to the closing of the transaction. This brings the year-to-date total to approximately $650 million.

    報告的自由現金流為負 1.92 億美元,讓我在這裡提供更多細節。運營現金流減少了近 7 億美元,主要是由於大部分收購債務的半年度現金利息支付以及合併和整合相關成本的季節性影響,本季度總計近 4 億美元,包括留存支出在交易結束前向華納媒體的老員工發放獎金。這使年初至今的總額達到約 6.5 億美元。

  • Furthermore, we reduced the balance outstanding on the securitization facility by $500 million from $5.7 billion to $5.2 billion, which also negatively impacted Q3 free cash flow, managing the program in line with the seasonal cadence of collections and revenue.

    此外,我們將證券化工具的未償餘額從 57 億美元減少到 52 億美元,減少了 5 億美元,這也對第三季度的自由現金流產生了負面影響,根據收款和收入的季節性節奏管理該計劃。

  • As previously mentioned, we repaid $2.5 billion of debt during Q3, bringing the total debt repaid since the closing of the transaction to $6 billion. We ended the quarter with $50.4 billion of gross debt and $2.5 billion of cash on hand.

    如前所述,我們在第三季度償還了 25 億美元的債務,使自交易完成以來償還的債務總額達到 60 億美元。我們以 504 億美元的總債務和 25 億美元的手頭現金結束了本季度。

  • Turning to guidance. Now with 2 months left in the year, we see adjusted EBITDA for 2022 landing towards the middle of our guidance range of $9 billion to $9.5 billion or about $9.2 billion. This is notwithstanding the incremental drag from currency and continued and greater than originally anticipated headwinds in the advertising market across much of the globe. It also includes the additional amortization of HBO content we have implemented following the detailed assessment of our content assets.

    轉向指導。現在,今年還剩 2 個月,我們看到 2022 年調整後的 EBITDA 落在我們指導範圍 90 億至 95 億美元或約 92 億美元的中間值。儘管貨幣帶來了增量阻力,並且全球大部分地區的廣告市場面臨持續且大於最初預期的逆風。它還包括我們在對我們的內容資產進行詳細評估後實施的 HBO 內容的額外攤銷。

  • We continue to see reported free cash flow for the year at $3 billion and now see net leverage at the end of the year at approximately 5x. Building off of this projected baseline and looking to 2023, we continue to target, and our teams are working towards, $12 billion in adjusted EBITDA. And in a more normal advertising environment, we believe that target should be achievable. That said, the lack of visibility on advertising globally creates a more challenging path towards achieving our target, given advertising is, by far, the greatest variable impacting our financial performance for 2023.

    我們繼續看到今年報告的自由現金流為 30 億美元,現在看到年底的淨槓桿率約為 5 倍。在這一預計基線的基礎上,展望 2023 年,我們將繼續設定目標,我們的團隊正在努力實現 120 億美元的調整後 EBITDA。而在更正常的廣告環境下,我們認為這個目標應該是可以實現的。也就是說,鑑於廣告是迄今為止影響我們 2023 年財務業績的最大變量,因此全球廣告缺乏知名度為實現我們的目標創造了一條更具挑戰性的道路。

  • I'd also like to offer a couple of other puts and takes to bridge from this year to 2023. First, synergy will be a healthy tailwind, and we expect $2 billion of incremental EBITDA impact year-over-year, as I detailed earlier. Second, the first half of 2023 should see an additional tailwind of a couple of hundred million dollars from the impact of our course correction measures implemented over the last several months, for example, CNN+. And third, FX trends and overall pay-TV trends are naturally outside of our control and difficult to predict.

    我還想提供一些其他的看跌期權和採取從今年到 2023 年的橋樑。首先,協同效應將是一個健康的順風,我們預計 EBITDA 影響將同比增加 20 億美元,正如我之前詳述的那樣.其次,2023 年上半年,我們在過去幾個月實施的路線修正措施(例如 CNN+)的影響應該會帶來幾億美元的額外收益。第三,外匯趨勢和整體付費電視趨勢自然不在我們的控制範圍內,也難以預測。

  • We continue to expect our free cash flow conversion rate to be in the 33% to 50% range. In addition to the factors described above, free cash flow will depend on the timing and size of the cash restructuring costs to be realized from 2023 as well as on content and working capital dynamics.

    我們繼續預計我們的自由現金流轉換率將在 33% 至 50% 的範圍內。除上述因素外,自由現金流將取決於從 2023 年開始實現現金重組成本的時間和規模,以及內容和營運資金動態。

  • To close, I'd like to reiterate that the future and mid- to long-term earnings power of this new combined company is as vibrant as ever, and we're decisively taking the necessary steps to enhance our operating structure and emerge as a leaner and stronger global media company, which will position us to take advantage of the eventual market recovery. We continue to focus on and invest in high-quality content and platforms with a flexible approach to monetization to drive growing and sustainable free cash flows, which we believe will ultimately maximize long-term shareholder value.

    最後,我想重申一下,這家新合併公司的未來和中長期盈利能力一如既往地充滿活力,我們正在果斷地採取必要措施來加強我們的運營結構並成為一家更精簡和更強大的全球媒體公司,這將使我們能夠利用最終的市場復甦。我們繼續專注於並投資於高質量的內容和平台,採用靈活的貨幣化方法來推動不斷增長和可持續的自由現金流,我們相信這最終將最大限度地提高長期股東價值。

  • And with that, I'd like to turn it back to the operator. And David, JB and I will take your questions.

    有了這個,我想把它還給運營商。大衛、JB 和我會回答你的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first session comes from Kannan Venkateshwar with Barclays.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一次會議來自巴克萊銀行的 Kannan Venkateshwar。

  • Kannan Venkateshwar - Director & Senior Research Analyst

    Kannan Venkateshwar - Director & Senior Research Analyst

  • Maybe, Gunnar, to start off with the synergy guidance for next year. When we look at the $12 billion EBITDA number and the free cash flow number, obviously, as you mentioned, it's subject to a lot of macro variables as well as things like cord-cutting. So I know these are low visibility items. But could you help us with some kind of sensitivity in terms of how your EBITDA or free cash flow could get impacted if the macro environment was to get worse or better one way or the other?

    也許,Gunnar,從明年的協同指導開始。當我們查看 120 億美元的 EBITDA 數字和自由現金流數字時,顯然,正如您所提到的,它受制於許多宏觀變量以及諸如剪線之類的事情。所以我知道這些是低能見度的項目。但是,如果宏觀環境以一種或另一種方式變得更糟或更好,您能否幫助我們了解您的 EBITDA 或自由現金流可能受到的影響?

  • And then, David, from your perspective, when you think about the organization right now, it looks like structurally, it's mostly in place in terms of org structure as well as the people and different seats. And so as you go into next year and beyond strategically, as you roll out HBO in a bigger way in the new form in the U.S. as well as around the world, how big of a focus is pricing compared to where we are from an ARPU level right now? And how do you expect that to evolve going forward?

    然後,大衛,從您的角度來看,當您考慮現在的組織時,它看起來在結構上,主要是在組織結構以及人員和不同席位方面到位。因此,當你戰略性地進入明年及以後,當你在美國和世界各地以新形式以更大的方式推出 HBO 時,與我們從 ARPU 相比,定價的重點有多大現在水平?以及您預計未來會如何發展?

  • Gunnar Wiedenfels - Senior EVP & CFO

    Gunnar Wiedenfels - Senior EVP & CFO

  • Kannan, let me start with your first question, and I'll take a bit of a broader perspective here. Let's start by the environment that we're seeing today because I think that's an important baseline. And as you know, we have been pointing to risks from the macro environment -- macroeconomic environment around us for quite some time. So we're not surprised. But the reality is, as you can see in our numbers, we came in at minus 11% for ad sales, which is the lower end of our guidance, and we see those trends continue into the fourth quarter.

    Kannan,讓我從你的第一個問題開始,在這裡我將採取更廣泛的視角。讓我們從我們今天看到的環境開始,因為我認為這是一個重要的基準。如你所知,我們一直在指出來自宏觀環境的風險——我們周圍的宏觀經濟環境已經有一段時間了。所以我們並不感到驚訝。但現實情況是,正如您在我們的數據中看到的那樣,我們的廣告銷售額為負 11%,這是我們指導的下限,我們看到這些趨勢將持續到第四季度。

  • Now keep in mind, for us, specifically, as we had pointed out last quarter, there were some prior year comp impacts, most importantly from the Olympics. And also, obviously, we're talking about the networks segment separately now. And so there were some positive growth drivers in the DTC segment. If you take that all together, our number would have looked more like mid- to high single digits down. But the reality is, as I said, those trends continue into the fourth quarter. And I don't want to give any more specific guidance for next year. That's why I laid out what we have control over, and I'll go through that again.

    現在請記住,對我們來說,特別是,正如我們上個季度所指出的那樣,前一年的比賽有一些影響,最重要的是來自奧運會。而且,顯然,我們現在正在單獨討論網絡部分。因此,在 DTC 領域有一些積極的增長動力。如果你把所有這些放在一起,我們的數字看起來更像是中高個位數。但現實是,正如我所說,這些趨勢將持續到第四季度。我不想為明年提供任何更具體的指導。這就是為什麼我列出了我們可以控制的內容,我會再講一遍。

  • We're -- let's assume at the midpoint of our guidance range for 2022, call it, $9.2 billion, there will be a couple of hundred million of impact on the positive side in the first half of next year as the full effect gets realized of the decisions that we have made in the second half of this year. And then we have full visibility and full conviction of $2 billion of incremental synergy impact, right? So that takes you to the, call it, $11.5 billion range for next year. And then to your point, the key question is the environment that we operate in, and I don't want to make any predictions here. You guys can all form your own views, but we do have $10 billion in advertising revenue. So that is a very material driver.

    我們 - 讓我們假設在我們 2022 年指導範圍的中點,稱之為 92 億美元,明年上半年將產生數億美元的積極影響,因為全面影響實現我們在今年下半年做出的決定。然後我們對 20 億美元的增量協同影響有充分的認識和充分的信心,對嗎?因此,這會將您帶到明年的 115 億美元範圍內。然後說到你的觀點,關鍵問題是我們所處的環境,我不想在這裡做任何預測。你們都可以形成自己的觀點,但我們確實有 100 億美元的廣告收入。所以這是一個非常重要的驅動因素。

  • Now that said, we are very, very bullish when it comes to the DTC segment for next year. Obviously, not only a great synergy opportunity, but also, as you heard from David, the launch stage for our combined product looks a little earlier now than we had anticipated when we spoke 3 months ago. I do think that there is a real inflection point that's available to us when it comes to the DTC revenue on the back of that relaunch. We have a much more robust film slate on the studios side, et cetera. So there's a number of drivers impacting our performance for next year here.

    話雖如此,我們非常非常看好明年的 DTC 細分市場。顯然,這不僅是一個很好的協同機會,而且正如您從 David 那裡聽到的那樣,我們組合產品的發布階段現在看起來比我們 3 個月前談話時的預期要早一些。我確實認為,在重新啟動後的 DTC 收入方面,我們可以找到一個真正的拐點。我們在工作室方面擁有更強大的電影陣容,等等。因此,有許多驅動因素會影響我們明年的表現。

  • And as I said, with a somewhat more normalized ad environment, $12 billion is what we're working for. It's what the team is budgeting for, but it's certainly -- I'm not in a position to put that in the bank here today. I don't know if that's helpful.

    正如我所說,在廣告環境更加規範化的情況下,我們正在努力爭取 120 億美元。這是團隊預算的目的,但肯定是——我今天不能把它放在銀行里。我不知道這是否有幫助。

  • David M. Zaslav - President, CEO & Director

    David M. Zaslav - President, CEO & Director

  • On the pricing, JB, we've been doing a lot of work, our peers around the world. We've been experimenting outside the U.S. Maybe -- we're not going to talk specifically about our pricing, but you could talk specifically about how we're approaching it.

    在定價方面,JB,我們一直在做很多工作,我們在世界各地的同行。我們一直在美國以外的地方進行試驗。也許——我們不會具體談論我們的定價,但你可以具體談談我們是如何接近它的。

  • Jean-Briac Perrette - President & CEO of Discovery International

    Jean-Briac Perrette - President & CEO of Discovery International

  • Yes. Kannan, I'd say pricing is one of 4 things that makes us particularly optimistic about the products coming together. Obviously, the content aggregation and pooling all the content pieces together, the second being the broader positioning that allows us to -- moving from a product that may have been a slightly more tailored approach to a fewer number of people in a household to a product that actually appeals to everybody in the household, the product improvements, David mentioned one in his remarks earlier. But there's a whole myriad of other product improvements that we need to execute on the platform that will greatly enhance engagement and retention.

    是的。 Kannan,我想說定價是讓我們對產品組合特別樂觀的四件事之一。顯然,內容聚合和將所有內容塊匯集在一起,第二個是更廣泛的定位,使我們能夠——從一種可能更適合家庭人數較少的產品轉向一種產品這實際上吸引了家庭中的每個人,產品改進,大衛在他之前的講話中提到了一個。但是,我們需要在平台上執行大量其他產品改進,這將大大提高參與度和保留率。

  • And then pricing, we think, is one of the meaningful ones. Two data points on that, that I think are important. Number one is by 2023, HBO Max will not have raised price since its launch. So it'll have been 3 years since pricing has moved, which we think is an opportunity, particularly in this environment. And number two, when we look internationally, our wholesale and retail ARPUs are meaningfully lower than the market leaders. And for us, that spells opportunity and an ability as we think about the new product coming to market and even some initiatives before the new product comes to market for growth on ARPU internationally.

    然後定價,我們認為,是有意義的之一。我認為有兩個數據點很重要。第一個是到 2023 年,HBO Max 自推出以來將不會提高價格。因此,定價已經過去了 3 年,我們認為這是一個機會,尤其是在這種環境下。第二,當我們放眼國際時,我們的批發和零售 ARPU 明顯低於市場領導者。對我們來說,這意味著機會和能力,因為我們在考慮新產品上市之前,甚至在新產品上市之前採取一些舉措,以實現全球 ARPU 的增長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Doug Mitchelson with Credit Suisse.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Doug Mitchelson。

  • Douglas David Mitchelson - MD

    Douglas David Mitchelson - MD

  • I guess a clarification on the advertising. How much of this is market? And is any of this ratings trends at the linear network? And anything specific about market color that, either Dave or Gunnar, you would give us in terms of what's driving the softness and as we try to all figure out whether it's going to sustain or get worse or get better?

    我想對廣告進行澄清。這有多少是市場?線性網絡中是否有任何這種評級趨勢?以及任何關於市場顏色的具體信息,無論是戴夫還是貢納爾,您都會告訴我們是什麼推動了疲軟,當我們試圖弄清楚它是會持續下去、變得更糟還是變得更好時?

  • And David, you talk about the content that you're manufacturing. It's interesting reading articles every now and then about the concern that you're going to pull back from investing in big content, and you gave a pretty long list. Is there a better idea at this point how content spending will evolve in the next few years at this company? I mean, you've got probably more detailed plans around the relaunch of streaming, probably a better idea on linear. And the film slate is already cooking next year. So any help with understanding just how much content spend might grow in the next few years would be helpful.

    大衛,你談論的是你正在製造的內容。時不時地閱讀有關您將退出大內容投資的擔憂的文章很有趣,並且您列出了很長的清單。在這一點上,這家公司未來幾年的內容支出將如何發展,是否有更好的想法?我的意思是,您可能已經制定了有關重新啟動流媒體的更詳細計劃,這可能是線性的更好主意。明年的電影計劃已經開始了。因此,任何有助於了解未來幾年內容支出可能會增長多少的幫助都會有所幫助。

  • David M. Zaslav - President, CEO & Director

    David M. Zaslav - President, CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Doug. Look, we're a content company. That's the business we're in. It's our advantage. The fact that we have these tentpoles, the strength of HBO right now by people domestically and around the world where we do have HBO in a few markets as being the highest quality, best curated service as well as the production of content coming out of Warner Bros., that's really our strength.

    謝謝,道格。看,我們是一家內容公司。這就是我們的業務。這是我們的優勢。事實上,我們擁有這些支柱,HBO 的實力現在被國內和世界各地的人們所認可兄弟,這真是我們的強項。

  • We intentionally referenced the content coming up because we're leaning in. We're spending more money this year than we've ever spent historically. And when -- there's been a lot of view of what's going on and the remix of this company coming back -- coming together, and it is messy. It's challenging, but it's taken real courage to restructure this company. It hasn't been restructured and reimagined for the future in a decade and a half. And so putting -- having this company work as one company and putting it all together and having -- looking at content across the platform, promoting it across the platform. But as part of that, we had the luxury, because of the spend across each platform, to take a look at how it's working.

    我們故意引用即將出現的內容,因為我們正在傾斜。我們今年花的錢比歷史上任何時候都多。當 - 有很多關於正在發生的事情和這家公司的混音回來的觀點 - 聚在一起,而且很混亂。這很有挑戰性,但重組這家公司需要真正的勇氣。十五年來,它沒有為未來進行重組和重新構想。因此,讓這家公司作為一家公司運作,並將它們放在一起並擁有 - 查看整個平台的內容,在整個平台上推廣它。但作為其中的一部分,由於在每個平台上的花費,我們有幸看看它是如何工作的。

  • And so Casey Bloys was able to look at all the content on HBO. And when 37 series went away, he was able to look over the last 1.5 years what are people watching and what are they not watching. Where are people spending time? Where are they being nourished? We had the ability to look at -- across our cable channels. What are we spending on shows? And where are they working? And where are we getting a good return?

    因此,Casey Bloys 能夠查看 HBO 上的所有內容。當 37 系列消失時,他能夠查看過去 1.5 年人們在看什麼,不看什麼。人們在哪裡消磨時間?他們在哪裡得到滋養?我們有能力通過我們的有線頻道進行查看。我們在節目上花費了什麼?他們在哪里工作?我們從哪裡獲得豐厚的回報?

  • And all those write-offs that we took shows off these platforms, we didn't take one show off a platform that was going to help us in any way. It's going to help us to get it off the platform so that we could now invest in with the knowledge of what is working and replace those shows with content that has a chance to be more successful, have larger audience, and we're reallocating the capital. How much should we be spending on HBO? How much more investment should we be making at Warner Bros. Television? And in the end, we're fully committed to content. You'll see that. We're committed to sport. We're committed to news, and we're focused now on how do we deploy that capital in a way to generate real value and get the content that's not working off.

    我們在這些平台上炫耀的所有那些註銷,我們沒有在一個可以以任何方式幫助我們的平台上炫耀。它將幫助我們將其從平台上移除,這樣我們現在就可以投資於了解有效的方法,並用有機會更成功、擁有更多觀眾的內容替換這些節目,我們正在重新分配首都。我們應該在 HBO 上花多少錢?我們應該在華納兄弟電視台再投資多少?最後,我們完全致力於內容。你會看到的。我們致力於體育運動。我們致力於新聞,我們現在專注於如何部署這些資本以產生真正的價值並獲得無效的內容。

  • Gunnar Wiedenfels - Senior EVP & CFO

    Gunnar Wiedenfels - Senior EVP & CFO

  • And we're in the process of developing one lens through which we look at it. It's one company, one view on returns. And I see a lot of opportunity there from the perspective of reallocating the capital.

    我們正在開發一個鏡頭來觀察它。這是一家公司,一種對回報的看法。從重新分配資本的角度來看,我看到了很多機會。

  • Doug, on the advertising market, look, the truth is delivery, obviously, across the ecosystem is down. But that said, we have been able to grow advertising in a meaningful way with exactly that level of delivery. So my view is this is, first and foremost, a market issue. Now as I said, the sports schedule did have an impact and put us at a little bit of a disadvantage in the quarter. For the fourth quarter as well, there is some additional tailwind in local, which, obviously, as you know, we're less well positioned to participate in. But the reality is that the scatter market has been pretty dry right now. So it is what it is as we know from experience these periods past, but it's not a very constructive environment right now as you have heard from a number of other players, peers and across the broader advertising market over the past 3, 4 weeks.

    道格,在廣告市場上,看,事實是交付,顯然,整個生態系統都在下降。但話雖如此,我們已經能夠以有意義的方式增加廣告投放水平。所以我的觀點是,這首先是一個市場問題。現在正如我所說,運動日程確實產生了影響,使我們在本季度處於劣勢。對於第四季度,本地也有一些額外的順風,顯然,如您所知,我們不太適合參與其中。但現實情況是,分散市場目前非常乾燥。因此,這就是我們從過去這些時期的經驗中了解到的情況,但正如您在過去 3 到 4 週從許多其他參與者、同行和整個更廣泛的廣告市場中聽到的那樣,現在這並不是一個非常有建設性的環境。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Jessica Reif with Bank of America Securities.

    我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行證券公司的 Jessica Reif。

  • Jessica Jean Reif Ehrlich Cohen - MD in Equity Research

    Jessica Jean Reif Ehrlich Cohen - MD in Equity Research

  • I guess just to start, you have these cyclical and secular challenges, as we all know, but you also have more tools and assets than most companies to combat or to meet this challenge. I was just wondering how you can -- if you could talk a little bit about how you'll use your scale, what are the levers you have. You mentioned FAST coming next year, which is -- should be upside. Like how should we think about that? How are you thinking about potentially asset sales?

    我想首先,眾所周知,您面臨著這些週期性和長期的挑戰,但您也擁有比大多數公司更多的工具和資產來應對或應對這一挑戰。我只是想知道你怎麼能——如果你能談談你將如何使用你的體重秤,你有什麼槓桿。你提到了明年即將到來的 FAST,這是 - 應該是上行的。比如我們應該怎麼想?您如何看待潛在的資產出售?

  • And then a second question, I guess, more for JB. Can you just address some of the challenges and opportunities in launching the combined service? Like how are you thinking about TAM? What are you thinking of the mix of AVOD versus SVOD? I mean, with discovery+, we saw that the ARPU was higher on the ad-light product. So any color you can give us on how you're thinking about that.

    然後是第二個問題,我想,更多的是關於 JB 的。您能談談推出聯合服務的一些挑戰和機遇嗎?比如你對 TAM 有什麼看法?您如何看待 AVOD 與 SVOD 的混合?我的意思是,通過發現+,我們看到廣告燈產品的 ARPU 更高。所以你可以給我們任何顏色,告訴我們你是如何考慮的。

  • David M. Zaslav - President, CEO & Director

    David M. Zaslav - President, CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Jessica. Just quickly on FAST, we have HBO Max as -- and we'll relaunch that product in the spring as a premium product and as an ad-light product. And we'll begin to roll that out globally. As JB said, we've begun to experiment with moving some of the discovery+ content in there. We also have a platform that is really deficient right now. And so we're holding on and we're growing. The fact that we were able to grow almost 3 million subs outside the U.S. without a lot of promotion and with a platform that's not that great, we really think, is encouraging as we begin to look at rolling out more broadly.

    謝謝,傑西卡。很快在 FAST 上,我們將 HBO Max 作為 - 我們將在春季將該產品作為高級產品和廣告燈產品重新推出。我們將開始在全球範圍內推廣它。正如 JB 所說,我們已經開始嘗試將一些發現+內容移到那裡。我們也有一個平台,現在真的很不足。所以我們堅持下去,我們正在成長。當我們開始考慮更廣泛地推廣時,我們真的認為,我們能夠在美國以外的地方增加近 300 萬訂閱者,而且我們真的認為,平台並不是那麼好,這一事實令人鼓舞。

  • But we also see FAST is a real opportunity for us. And I think it's unique for us. We have the largest TV and motion picture library. And so this content that belongs on HBO Max when that product launches, whatever it's called, as well as the AVOD service, but we could see now what are people consuming on those platforms. There's also a huge amount of content that's not even on that platform that's sitting with us that hasn't been put to monetize in the marketplace. Some of that we will sell, which we've talked about, and we've started to sell. Some of it we'll sell nonexclusively, some of it. But we have the ability on the FAST side to build a service without buying content. Most of the players in that space are out buying content and then looking to sell that content and create a vig effectively where they get a return on that content based on what they spent on it.

    但我們也看到 FAST 對我們來說是一個真正的機會。我認為這對我們來說是獨一無二的。我們擁有最大的電視和電影庫。因此,當該產品發佈時,該內容屬於 HBO Max,無論其名稱如何,以及 AVOD 服務,但我們現在可以看到人們在這些平台上消費甚麼。還有大量內容甚至不在與我們坐在一起的那個平台上,還沒有在市場上貨幣化。其中一些我們將出售,我們已經討論過,我們已經開始出售。其中一些我們將非獨家銷售,其中一些。但我們有能力在 FAST 方面構建服務而無需購買內容。該領域的大多數玩家都在購買內容,然後尋求出售該內容並有效地創建一個 vig,他們可以根據他們在該內容上的花費獲得回報。

  • We can take content we already own, a lot of it where we have no participants, some of it where we have participants but it's at a fraction, and get ourselves into an AVOD service, which I think makes us full service. And most of that has been fully amortized or almost all of those have been fully amortized. And it gives us effectively a full service, which you'll see as we come into the end of '23, which is a premium service that we're driving globally with no ads, an ad-light service, which will have a robust and attractive advertising opportunity where, even in a difficult market, we're getting very good pricing.

    我們可以獲取我們已經擁有的內容,其中很多是我們沒有參與者的,有些是我們有參與者但只是一小部分的內容,然後讓我們自己進入 AVOD 服務,我認為這可以讓我們提供全面的服務。其中大部分已全部攤銷或幾乎所有已全部攤銷。它有效地為我們提供了全面的服務,當我們進入 23 年底時,您會看到這是一項優質服務,我們正在全球範圍內推動沒有廣告,廣告燈服務,它將具有強大的和有吸引力的廣告機會,即使在困難的市場中,我們也能獲得非常好的定價。

  • And then finally, there's always a huge number of people that do not want to pay, and we'll be able to have them spending time with us, we think, with an economic model that's much advantaged versus our peers. And then as we learn more, we can move the content through that ecosystem.

    最後,總有很多人不想付錢,我們認為,我們可以讓他們花時間與我們在一起,我們認為,與我們的同行相比,這種經濟模式更有優勢。然後隨著我們了解更多,我們可以通過該生態系統移動內容。

  • Gunnar Wiedenfels - Senior EVP & CFO

    Gunnar Wiedenfels - Senior EVP & CFO

  • Yes. That's actually -- I think that's -- in terms of scale, Jessica, that's one of the most exciting points, the way we're now able to look at content decision-making with people providing a perspective from the various business units, providing data and the ability to make these decisions on a group level in the best interest of the Warner Bros. Discovery as opposed to optimizing individual business units.

    是的。這實際上是 - 我認為這是 - 就規模而言,傑西卡,這是最令人興奮的一點,我們現在能夠與從各個業務部門提供視角的人一起看待內容決策的方式,提供數據以及在集團層面做出這些決策的能力,以符合華納兄弟探索的最佳利益,而不是優化單個業務部門。

  • The other more recent point I would like to highlight where we're really in the first inning is just the marketing power of this company. If you look at the Black Adam campaign that David mentioned in his opening remarks, this is as broad, as comprehensive as we've ever seen it, and we're just getting started. Now we're going to be able to gather all the data and drive all the insights from executing a campaign like that. We can already see what the impact on ticket sales has been, what's worked, what hasn't worked. As I said, we are able to tackle this in a way that I don't think anyone has done. And again, we're just getting started.

    我想強調的另一點最近的一點是我們真正處於第一局的位置,這只是這家公司的營銷能力。如果你看看大衛在開幕詞中提到的黑亞當運動,就會發現這是我們所見過的最廣泛、最全面的活動,而我們才剛剛開始。現在我們將能夠收集所有數據,並通過執行這樣的活動獲得所有見解。我們已經可以看到對門票銷售的影響是什麼,什麼有效,什麼無效。正如我所說,我們能夠以我認為沒有人做過的方式來解決這個問題。再說一次,我們才剛剛開始。

  • And on the ad sales side, again, it's early days. But if you look at what Kathleen has been able to do after Scripps and what JB back in the day did at Discovery on the international side, I have no doubt that Kathleen and Luis and Chris and Gerhard are going to drive this network portfolio hard. And it just makes so much sense that optimizing this combined comprehensive portfolio with one centralized approach is going to drive enormous delivery and...

    在廣告銷售方面,同樣,現在還處於早期階段。但是,如果你看看 Kathleen 在 Scripps 之後所做的事情以及 JB 當年在 Discovery 在國際方面所做的事情,我毫不懷疑 Kathleen 和 Luis 以及 Chris 和 Gerhard 將努力推動這個網絡組合。用一種集中的方法優化這個綜合的綜合產品組合將推動巨大的交付和......

  • David M. Zaslav - President, CEO & Director

    David M. Zaslav - President, CEO & Director

  • And remember, there are -- on average, we might be 25% of viewership on any given night. But when -- during the NBA, we could be up to 40% of viewership, live sports, live news, entertainment, nonfiction. During March Madness, our numbers will be even higher. And so the ability to use live news, use -- particularly live sports, which others did with the NFL and college football in -- during a difficult market, but the fact that we're such a big part, an effective part of the overall viewership in America gives us a chance to go to advertisers on digital news, sports, entertainment. And so that opportunity, I think, should give us a huge advantage if and when the market comes back, and we expect it will. We just can't predict when.

    請記住,在任何一個晚上,平均而言,我們可能是 25% 的收視率。但是,在 NBA 期間,我們的收視率可能高達 40%,包括體育直播、新聞直播、娛樂、非小說類。在瘋狂三月期間,我們的人數會更高。因此,在困難的市場中使用直播新聞的能力,尤其是其他人在 NFL 和大學橄欖球比賽中所做的直播體育賽事,但事實上我們是如此重要的一部分,是美國的整體收視率讓我們有機會接觸數字新聞、體育和娛樂方面的廣告商。因此,我認為,如果市場回升,那麼這個機會應該會給我們帶來巨大的優勢,我們預計它會。我們只是無法預測何時。

  • Finally, on the distribution side, we did very well at Discovery with our traditional nonfiction package. Turner did very well with their new sports and entertainment. Together, we make up most of the high quality and valuable piece of the basic cable bundle. And so together, we're really aligned with the distributors. They want the bundle to remain robust. We want it to remain robust. And with all the discussion of the decline of the traditional bundle, and we could see that it is in secular decline, but the real optimistic point here is that almost all of the sports, all of the sports are on free-to-air and cable. And the numbers for sports have gone up dramatically. March Madness was up 40%. The NBA is up 25%, 30%.

    最後,在發行方面,我們在 Discovery 上用我們傳統的非小說包做得很好。特納在他們的新運動和娛樂方面做得很好。我們共同構成了基本電纜束中大部分高質量和有價值的部分。因此,我們真的與分銷商保持一致。他們希望捆綁包保持健壯。我們希望它保持穩健。在所有關於傳統捆綁式衰落的討論中,我們可以看到它正在長期衰落,但這裡真正樂觀的一點是,幾乎所有的運動,所有的運動都是免費的,而且電纜。體育運動的人數急劇增加。三月瘋狂上漲了 40%。 NBA上漲了25%、30%。

  • And so it is the platform where people are watching sports, and that sports is going to be on cable for the next 10 years. And so there are certain trends you see. On the other hand, you see a very big uptick on sport and long-term commitment to sport on the platform, which I think will provide a steadying force. And it'll likely -- when there was some discussion by Rutledge this morning, a great operator, of some challenges ahead, I think one of the things that the operators are concerned about is when it comes to the big 12 and the increase in sports rights that they're going to have to pay the lion's share of that. It increases.

    因此,它是人們觀看體育賽事的平台,而體育賽事將在未來 10 年內通過有線電視播出。因此,您會看到某些趨勢。另一方面,您會看到平台上的體育運動和對體育運動的長期承諾大幅上升,我認為這將提供穩定的力量。並且很可能 - 當今天早上有一個偉大的運營商 Rutledge 討論未來的一些挑戰時,我認為運營商擔心的事情之一是當涉及到 12 大公司和增加他們將不得不支付大部分的體育權利。它增加了。

  • Gunnar Wiedenfels - Senior EVP & CFO

    Gunnar Wiedenfels - Senior EVP & CFO

  • And then Jessica, maybe just to close on your ad-light and TAM question, we see -- if you exclude the nonaccessible markets of China and Russia and India for a second, just given the scale and different ARPU dynamics of that market, we think there's about around 2 billion people around the world that are consumers of free ad-supported entertainment. And we look at about 20% to 30% of that group being addressable on the subscription side.

    然後傑西卡,也許只是為了結束你的廣告和 TAM 問題,我們看到——如果你暫時排除中國、俄羅斯和印度等不可進入的市場,考慮到該市場的規模和不同的 ARPU 動態,我們想想全世界大約有 20 億人是免費廣告支持娛樂的消費者。我們看到該組中大約 20% 到 30% 的人在訂閱方面是可尋址的。

  • And in the subscription side, we ultimately do see the ad-light offering that now, obviously, everyone is leaning towards as an incredibly important growth initiative for us. We're frankly a little surprised in the HBO Max ad-light offering that more people have not moved to that offering, and I think it says 2 things which are both positive for us. Number one is we believe there's actually some pricing advantage for us on the ad-free service that we can probably move north of where the prices are today. And secondarily, that we can drive, particularly as we bring the products together, a lot more adoption of that ad-light tier as we saw with the legacy discovery+ product.

    在訂閱方面,我們最終確實看到了廣告燈產品,顯然,現在每個人都傾向於將其視為對我們來說非常重要的增長計劃。坦率地說,我們對 HBO Max 的廣告燈產品感到有些驚訝,因為更多的人沒有轉向該產品,我認為它說明了兩件對我們來說都是積極的事情。第一是我們相信在無廣告服務上對我們來說實際上有一些定價優勢,我們可能會向北移動今天的價格。其次,我們可以推動,特別是當我們將產品組合在一起時,更多地採用該廣告燈層,正如我們在傳統發現 + 產品中看到的那樣。

  • And lastly, on monetization of that tier, today, we have about 2 to 3 minutes of ads in HBO Max ad-light. That's about half of what we have on discovery+. So we think we have, as we roll the 2 combined products, almost 100% growth in the inventory available to us as we look to combine the ad loads of those 2 products.

    最後,關於這一層的貨幣化,今天,我們在 HBO Max 廣告燈中投放了大約 2 到 3 分鐘的廣告。這大約是我們發現+的一半。因此,我們認為,當我們推出這兩種組合產品時,我們可以使用的庫存幾乎 100% 增長,因為我們希望將這兩種產品的廣告負載結合起來。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Philip Cusick with JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Philip Cusick。

  • Philip A. Cusick - MD and Senior Analyst

    Philip A. Cusick - MD and Senior Analyst

  • One clarification, and this sounds silly. But there's been some debate about the definition of notwithstanding. I think it's pretty clear. But just to be so, you're guiding toward a headline number of about $9.2 billion in EBITDA this year? Is that fair? And then what's the impact from the accelerated HBO amortization in that?

    一個澄清,這聽起來很傻。但是對於儘管的定義存在一些爭論。我認為這很清楚。但正因為如此,您正在引導今年的 EBITDA 達到約 92 億美元的頭條數字?這公平嗎?那麼加速 HBO 攤銷的影響是什麼?

  • And then if I can ask a real question, maybe help us with -- outline the changes in what market should be sort of DTC versus wholesale or partner markets as you look at going internationally, both with new markets and then potentially with some of the ones that are already out there.

    然後,如果我能問一個真正的問題,也許可以幫助我們——概述當你考慮走向國際時,什麼樣的市場應該是 DTC 與批發或合作夥伴市場的變化,包括新市場,然後可能是一些那些已經存在的。

  • Gunnar Wiedenfels - Senior EVP & CFO

    Gunnar Wiedenfels - Senior EVP & CFO

  • So let me quickly knock out that clarification question, and then I'll pass it to JB. So what we're saying is $9.2 billion is the best estimate pretty much in the middle of that guidance range that we've given. So essentially, on a year-over-year basis, sequentially, another improvement after Q3, now Q4 better. And then as I've said, I expect much more improvement as we go into next year. And this is net of the headwinds that we have digested to get to that number.

    因此,讓我快速解決這個澄清問題,然後將其傳遞給 JB。因此,我們所說的 92 億美元是我們給出的指導範圍中間的最佳估計。因此,從本質上講,與去年同期相比,第三季度之後的又一次改善,現在第四季度更好。然後正如我所說,我預計明年會有更多改進。這是我們為達到這個數字而消化的逆風的淨值。

  • Most importantly, FX has been a pretty significant headwind this year, as you know. We're expecting that to be roughly $160 million for the full year. The amortization policy change for HBO content is in a similar ballpark, a little more for the full year, but was roughly $150 million in the third quarter as we had some catch-up effects. So that's all baked into the $9.2 billion number.

    最重要的是,如您所知,外匯今年一直是一個相當大的逆風。我們預計全年約為 1.6 億美元。 HBO 內容的攤銷政策變化類似,全年略多一些,但由於我們有一些追趕效應,第三季度約為 1.5 億美元。所以這一切都融入了 92 億美元的數字。

  • Jean-Briac Perrette - President & CEO of Discovery International

    Jean-Briac Perrette - President & CEO of Discovery International

  • And on the international wholesale and partnerships angle, obviously, the rollout we laid out in the -- in August assumed essentially a rollout of the new product over the next 2 years in the existing HBO Max markets other than a handful of additional ones that we talked about launching in Europe in 2024. Next year, it's really focused on U.S., Lat Am, which are all existing HBO Max markets. And so there is no incremental launches in that number. As David mentioned earlier, we really were focusing on getting the product to market, getting launched and then reassessing as we get the product launched whether there's any opportunities to do more and more markets in the years to come. But that's not something obviously we have any visibility at this moment.

    顯然,從國際批發和合作夥伴的角度來看,我們在 8 月份推出的產品基本上假設在未來 2 年內在現有 HBO Max 市場推出新產品,而不是我們的少數其他市場。談到 2024 年在歐洲推出。明年,它真的專注於美國、拉丁美洲,這些都是現有的 HBO Max 市場。因此,該數字沒有增量發布。正如大衛之前提到的,我們確實專注於將產品推向市場,推出產品,然後在產品推出時重新評估未來幾年是否有機會進入越來越多的市場。但這顯然不是我們目前有任何可見性的事情。

  • Lastly, on the partnership side, we do view, as we have in the legacy Discovery side, that there are a number of different partnership opportunities. And in fact, in the last few months, as we've been out in the market talking to partners, a long list of partners eager to engage on conversations about how they can help us accelerate the rollout of the future product as we come to market across all the markets we're coming into. So we're excited to work with the existing partners and some new partners to figure out there's ways to accelerate the rollout and potentially lessen our marketing costs and SAC through those kind of partnerships that we've done historically.

    最後,在合作方面,我們確實認為,就像我們在傳統的 Discovery 方面一樣,有許多不同的合作機會。事實上,在過去的幾個月裡,當我們在市場上與合作夥伴交談時,一長串的合作夥伴渴望就他們如何幫助我們加速推出未來產品進行對話。我們進入的所有市場的市場。因此,我們很高興與現有的合作夥伴和一些新的合作夥伴合作,找出通過我們歷史上做過的那種合作夥伴關係來加速推出並可能降低我們的營銷成本和 SAC 的方法。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Steven Cahall with Wells Fargo.

    我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Steven Cahall。

  • Steven Lee Cahall - Senior Analyst

    Steven Lee Cahall - Senior Analyst

  • Maybe first to kind of pick up on Doug's question on content and ask it a slightly different way. David, between the content write-down and a lot of the changes to personnel you've made, I'm just wondering how you could characterize the content strategy now. It seems like it was a little bit broken under WarnerMedia before. And when you think about what content is going to look like in the future, I was just wondering if you could kind of say how it's going to be different under Warner Bros. Discovery than what it is under WarnerMedia.

    也許首先要了解 Doug 關於內容的問題,並以稍微不同的方式提出問題。大衛,在內容記錄和您對人員所做的大量更改之間,我只是想知道您現在如何描述內容策略。之前好像在華納傳媒旗下有點破。當您考慮未來的內容會是什麼樣子時,我只是想知道您是否可以說一下在華納兄弟探索下與華納媒體下的內容有何不同。

  • And then, Gunnar, maybe just a follow-up on the free cash flow impact from the synergy. When we talk about the incremental synergy guidance, I know that next year, there's probably a cash headwind from a cost to achieve. So in 2023, specifically, is the increased synergy guidance going to be helpful to free cash flow? Is it going to be neutral to free cash flow? Could it be a drag on free cash flow? Would just love to understand how we think about the free cash flow dynamic for 2023.

    然後,Gunnar,也許只是對協同效應對自由現金流的影響的後續行動。當我們談論增量協同效應指導時,我知道明年,實現成本可能會帶來現金逆風。那麼,具體而言,到 2023 年,增加的協同效應指導是否會有助於自由現金流?它對自由現金流是中性的嗎?這會拖累自由現金流嗎?很想了解我們如何看待 2023 年的自由現金流動態。

  • David M. Zaslav - President, CEO & Director

    David M. Zaslav - President, CEO & Director

  • A couple of things. One, we're going to have a real focus on franchises. We haven't had a Superman movie in 13 years. We haven't done a Harry Potter movie in 15 years. One of -- the DC movies and the Harry Potter movies provided a lot of the profits of Warner Bros. Motion Pictures over the last 25 years. So focused on the -- one of the big advantages that we have, House of the Dragon is an example of that, Game of Thrones, taking advantage of Sex and the City. Lord of the Rings, we still have the right to do Lord of the Rings movies.

    有幾件事。一,我們將真正關注特許經營權。我們已經有 13 年沒有拍過超人電影了。我們已經 15 年沒有拍過哈利波特電影了。其中之一——DC 電影和哈利波特電影在過去 25 年中為華納兄弟電影公司提供了大量利潤。所以專注於 - 我們擁有的一大優勢,龍之屋就是一個例子,權力的遊戲,利用慾望都市。指環王,我們還有權拍指環王的電影。

  • What are the movies that have brands that are understood and loved everywhere in the world? In the -- outside the U.S., most -- in the aggregate, Europe, Latin America, Asia, it's about 40% of the theaters that we have here in the U.S. And there's local content. And so when you have a franchise movie, you can often make 2 to 3x the amount of money you make in the U.S. because you get a slot. And a focus on the big movies that are loved, that are tentpole, that people are going to leave home, leave early from dinner to go to see, and we have a lot of them, Batman, Superman, Aquaman, if we can do something with J.K. on Harry Potter going forward, Lord of the Rings. What are we doing with Game of Thrones? What are we doing with a lot of the big franchises that we have? We're focused on franchises.

    有哪些電影的品牌在世界各地都被理解和喜愛?在美國以外的大部分地區,歐洲、拉丁美洲、亞洲,我們在美國擁有的劇院大約有 40%,而且有本地內容。所以當你有一部特許經營電影時,你通常可以賺到你在美國賺到的錢的 2 到 3 倍,因為你有一個位置。關注那些廣受喜愛的大電影,那些大片,人們要離開家,晚飯後早點離開去看,我們有很多,蝙蝠俠,超人,海王,如果我們能做到的話J.K.關於哈利波特前進,指環王。我們在用權力的遊戲做什麼?我們如何處理我們擁有的許多大型特許經營權?我們專注於特許經營。

  • Two, we've learned what doesn't work. And this is what doesn't work for us based on everything that we've seen and we've looked at it hard. One is direct-to-streaming movies, so spending $1 billion or collapsing a motion picture window into a streaming service. The movies that we launched in the theater do significantly better, and launching a 2-hour or an hour and 40-minute movie direct to streaming has done almost nothing for HBO Max in terms of viewership, retention or love of the service.

    第二,我們已經知道什麼是行不通的。根據我們所看到的並且我們已經認真研究過的一切,這對我們不起作用。一種是直接流媒體電影,因此花費 10 億美元或將電影窗口折疊成流媒體服務。我們在影院上映的電影效果要好得多,而直接在流媒體上發布 2 小時或 1 小時 40 分鐘的電影在收視率、留存率或對服務的喜愛方面對 HBO Max 幾乎沒有任何幫助。

  • The other is the entire library or almost the entire library shouldn't be on HBO Max and paid for by HBO Max. There's a lot of -- we have an extraordinary library, Friends, Big Bang Theory, Two and a Half Men. There's 15 or 20 series that are loved and used and are nourishing the audience on a regular basis, but then there's a huge number of series and movies that aren't being used at all. And so the ability to see over the last 1.5 years what's happened to that entire library of motion picture and movies or on -- and to see that if none of it's being used, why aren't we putting it on an AVOD where it will be used? We've looked at what people are watching on Pluto and on Tubi. It's very different. They're loving Rawhide and Bonanza. They're not watching that. They're not watching old series like Dynasty on Max.

    另一個是整個圖書館或幾乎整個圖書館不應該在 HBO Max 上並由 HBO Max 付費。有很多——我們有一個非凡的圖書館、朋友、生活大爆炸、好漢兩個半。有 15 或 20 個系列受到喜愛和使用,並定期滋養觀眾,但也有大量系列和電影根本沒有被使用。因此,能夠查看過去 1.5 年中整個電影和電影庫發生了什麼或其他內容 - 並查看如果沒有使用它,我們為什麼不將它放在 AVOD 上使用?我們已經查看了人們在 Pluto 和 Tubi 上觀看的內容。這是非常不同的。他們喜歡生皮和富礦。他們不看那個。他們不會在 Max 上觀看像《王朝》這樣的老電視劇。

  • And so there is a platform where people have an expectation in what they want to watch. And we've been able to get a real -- a vision into what people are consuming. And ultimately, that gives us a road map. So what libraries really are advantageous to us? And a lot of that stuff we might keep on there, but we don't need it to be exclusive. It could also be on AVOD. We could sell it to someone else because no one is subscribing or staying on a particular -- on one of our services because it's there. And so I think what we're really trying to understand is what has worked on the platform and what hasn't. And then based on that, we'll determine how to operate going forward.

    所以有一個平台,人們對他們想看的東西有一個期望。而且我們已經能夠獲得一個真實的 - 對人們消費的願景。最終,這為我們提供了路線圖。那麼哪些圖書館真的對我們有利呢?我們可能會保留很多這樣的東西,但我們不需要它是排他的。它也可以在 AVOD 上。我們可以把它賣給其他人,因為沒有人訂閱或停留在特定的——我們的一項服務上,因為它就在那裡。所以我認為我們真正想要了解的是什麼在平台上有效,什麼無效。然後在此基礎上,我們將確定如何操作。

  • Gunnar Wiedenfels - Senior EVP & CFO

    Gunnar Wiedenfels - Senior EVP & CFO

  • And Steve, the -- obviously, one of the big drivers for free cash flow as well is the relationship between content cash investments and amortization. But just to go through a couple of puts and takes, as you read in our release, $650 million year-to-date charges related to the merger, some of that cost to achieve. There's going to be a little more in the fourth quarter. And so against that baseline, next year is going to be a little higher, but it's not very significantly higher.

    史蒂夫,顯然,自由現金流的一大驅動力也是內容現金投資和攤銷之間的關係。但是,正如您在我們的新聞稿中所讀到的那樣,只是通過幾次看跌期權,與合併相關的年初至今費用為 6.5 億美元,其中一些成本是要實現的。第四季度還會有更多。所以相對於這個基線,明年會高一點,但不會高很多。

  • We are going to see a little bit of a closing of the gap between content amort and content cash as amortization steps up. I do believe there is significant flow-through from the synergies, again, $2 billion year-over-year, assuming a tax rate against that and flow the rest through.

    隨著攤銷的增加,我們將看到內容攤銷和內容現金之間的差距有所縮小。我確實相信協同效應會產生巨大的流動性,同樣是每年 20 億美元,假設稅率與此相反,其餘的則流動。

  • And then 2 more points to point out. One is, if you think about sort of WarnerMedia as a very siloed, business unit-driven setup pre combination with Discovery, I believe there is enormous potential on the CapEx, working capital side. Those are all things we can manage much differently. That's going to take a little longer, but we're going to start chipping away at it.

    然後再指出 2 點。一個是,如果您將 WarnerMedia 視為一種非常孤立的、由業務部門驅動的設置與 Discovery 的預組合,我相信在資本支出和營運資金方面存在巨大潛力。這些都是我們可以以不同方式管理的所有事情。這將需要更長的時間,但我們將開始削減它。

  • And then the last point I want to just be transparent about, on a year-over-year basis, one of the drags on free cash flow in the third quarter was the fact that we paid about $700 million of interest for merger-related debt or bonds that's on a semiannual cycle. So you will get another half a year impact of that for 2023 as well. So those are the things I think we can call out right now, and that's why I reiterated that 1/3 to 50% of EBITDA flow-through guidance for free cash flow.

    最後一點,我想說的是,與去年同期相比,第三季度自由現金流的拖累之一是我們為與合併相關的債務支付了約 7 億美元的利息。或以半年為周期的債券。因此,您還將在 2023 年獲得另一半年的影響。所以這些是我認為我們現在可以呼籲的事情,這就是為什麼我重申自由現金流的 1/3 到 50% 的 EBITDA 流通指導。

  • David M. Zaslav - President, CEO & Director

    David M. Zaslav - President, CEO & Director

  • One last point on content. The audience will tell you what they love. They'll spend time with it. They'll watch it and rewatch it, and you could see it. You could see it on cable and free-to-air in terms of the ratings. And you -- we could see it on Max and seeing exactly what people spend time with. And we look at it. And we look at it hard if we have a scripted show that $7.5 million, and it's getting 0.03, then that tells us that we -- somehow it's been written that we're not committed to scripted on TNT. We're very committed to scripted, but we want to measure what people are watching and what they're not. If a repeat of Two and a Half Men or Big Bang does 3x the rating of a brand-new show that was spending another season that we greenlit of a show that's costing us $7.5 million, we're going to cancel that show. And we're going to try and get another scripted series that has a chance to really deliver and delight and engage an audience. But we are being deliberate about measuring how are the shows doing.

    關於內容的最後一點。觀眾會告訴你他們喜歡什麼。他們會花時間處理它。他們會觀看並重新觀看,您可以看到它。就收視率而言,您可以在有線和免費廣播中看到它。而你——我們可以在 Max 上看到它,並準確地看到人們花時間在什麼地方。我們看看它。如果我們有一個 750 萬美元的腳本節目,我們會仔細研究它,並且它得到了 0.03,那麼這告訴我們 - 不知何故,它被寫成我們不致力於在 TNT 上編寫腳本。我們非常致力於腳本化,但我們想衡量人們在看什麼,不看什麼。如果重播《好漢兩個半》或《生活大爆炸》的收視率是另一季的全新節目的 3 倍,而我們為耗資 750 萬美元的節目開綠燈,我們將取消該節目。我們將嘗試製作另一個腳本系列,它有機會真正傳達、取悅和吸引觀眾。但我們正在慎重衡量節目的表現。

  • As I said, let me be very clear, we did not get rid of any show that is helping us. And we got rid of those shows that we could focus on producing new content that will and using everything we learned on each platform to make new choices. It's a business of failure, but we'd rather take that money and spend it again and have a chance of having to show that will engage and delight on either our traditional platforms or our subscription platforms.

    正如我所說,讓我非常清楚,我們沒有擺脫任何對我們有幫助的節目。我們擺脫了那些我們可以專注於製作新內容的節目,並利用我們在每個平台上學到的一切來做出新的選擇。這是一項失敗的生意,但我們寧願拿那筆錢再花一遍,並有機會展示這將在我們的傳統平台或訂閱平台上吸引和取悅。

  • Gunnar Wiedenfels - Senior EVP & CFO

    Gunnar Wiedenfels - Senior EVP & CFO

  • Actually, Steve, before we move on, I did want to mention one thing because you were quoted a lot and got a lot of mileage out of your statement earlier this week, I think, or end of last week that Warner Bros. Discovery has the greatest assets with the highest leverage in the industry or something like that.

    實際上,史蒂夫,在我們繼續之前,我確實想提一件事,因為你被引用了很多並且從你本週早些時候的聲明中獲得了很多里程,我認為,或者上週末華納兄弟發現有行業中槓桿率最高的最大資產或類似的東西。

  • Steven Lee Cahall - Senior Analyst

    Steven Lee Cahall - Senior Analyst

  • And that balance sheet.

    還有那個資產負債表。

  • Gunnar Wiedenfels - Senior EVP & CFO

    Gunnar Wiedenfels - Senior EVP & CFO

  • Yes. So I just want to comment on that while we're on the topic of free cash flow. I really view our capital structure as a huge asset. We put the structure in place with a purpose. It's cheap, largely fixed and long-dated debt. And so from that perspective, I feel very, very good about it. Very limited maturity coming up over the next couple of years. We run scenarios, obviously. And there is -- even in the most dire scenarios, no requirement for us to come back to the debt markets to refinance anything. So it really is a bit of an asset. It's not lost on us where the debt is trading.

    是的。因此,當我們討論自由現金流的話題時,我只想對此發表評論。我真的認為我們的資本結構是一項巨大的資產。我們有目的地設置結構。這是便宜的,主要是固定的和長期的債務。所以從這個角度來看,我感覺非常非常好。未來幾年的成熟度非常有限。顯然,我們運行場景。而且 - 即使在最可怕的情況下,我們也不需要回到債務市場為任何東西再融資。所以它確實是一種資產。在債務交易的地方,我們並沒有丟失。

  • And as we're rolling in that free cash flow that I described over the next 2, 3, 4 years, I think there is enormous opportunity for us, which is going to be in the best interest of not only the equity holders, but also the debt holders. So this is a real, real asset. And I just saw -- it made me laugh when your quote was picked up by The Wall Street Journal, I think, this morning.

    隨著我們在未來 2 年、3 年、4 年內實現我所描述的自由現金流,我認為這對我們來說是巨大的機會,這不僅符合股東的最大利益,而且符合也是債權人。所以這是一個真實的,真正的資產。我剛剛看到——我想,今天早上,當你的引述被《華爾街日報》收錄時,我笑了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our final question comes from Rich Greenfield with LightShed Partners.

    我們的最後一個問題來自 Rich Greenfield 和 LightShed Partners。

  • Richard Scott Greenfield - Partner and Media & Technology Analyst

    Richard Scott Greenfield - Partner and Media & Technology Analyst

  • David, you've been pretty clear about how many mistakes the AT&T management team made and sort of put you in sort of the situation that you're now in. I guess is abandoning Amazon's channels one of those mistakes that you see? And is revisiting that decision and the subs and cash flow tied to it, is it tied to the relaunch of HBO Max sometime next year?

    大衛,你很清楚 AT&T 管理團隊犯了多少錯誤,讓你陷入了現在的境地。我想放棄亞馬遜的渠道是你看到的錯誤之一?是否重新審視該決定以及與之相關的訂閱和現金流,是否與明年某個時候重新啟動 HBO Max 相關?

  • And then second, I was just sort of thinking about your comments at the very beginning about sort of the difficult decisions you have to make ahead. And I'm curious, is NBA rights one of those just given sort of the challenges? Like do you need NBA rights given the -- kind of where the TV world is headed right now? Just how -- I'm sort of just interested in like what you meant by difficult decisions or what you're thinking about in those difficult decisions would be great.

    其次,我一開始只是在想你的評論,關於你必須提前做出的艱難決定。我很好奇,NBA 權利是剛剛面臨的挑戰之一嗎?考慮到電視世界現在的發展方向,你是否需要 NBA 權利?只是如何 - 我有點感興趣,比如你所說的困難決定是什麼意思,或者你在那些困難決定中所想的東西會很棒。

  • David M. Zaslav - President, CEO & Director

    David M. Zaslav - President, CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Rich. Look, we got the -- in some ways, as hard as this has been, to restructure this company and make a lot of changes in terms of people and how we approach the business, we've really seized the moment. And I think it's -- I'm very proud of the leadership team. It's taken real courage to sit down and say, we have a chance to start over here. What is the business -- how do we want to structure this business? What content should we have? With the ability to look at what's working and what's not working, what do we need to be a successful business for the future, as if it was a family business? We took our wallet out, put it on the table and said, what do we want to spend our money on in order to have a best chance of succeeding?

    謝謝,里奇。看,我們得到了 - 在某些方面,就像現在一樣困難,重組這家公司並在人員和我們處理業務的方式方面做出很多改變,我們真的抓住了這個時機。我認為這是 - 我為領導團隊感到非常自豪。坐下來說,我們有機會從這裡重新開始,這需要很大的勇氣。什麼是業務——我們想如何構建這個業務?我們應該有什麼內容?有了查看哪些有效哪些無效的能力,我們需要什麼才能成為未來的成功企業,就好像它是一個家族企業一樣?我們拿出錢包,放在桌子上,然後說,我們想把錢花在什麼上面,才能有最大的成功機會?

  • Casey did. Channing did it. Mike and Pam did it. Chris has done it. And now we have a vision for what we believe is going to make this company strong and the most effective media company to take advantage of our diverse assets. We're not going to be right about everything. But when -- in 4 or 5 months, as we make the turn into next year and we're about in the seventh or eighth inning here of getting this through, that we'll find over the next year that a lot of what we thought maybe was a little bit wrong, but we have conviction. We have a clear vision for the future and where we're going and what we want to do. And we have the courage. Over the last 7 months, and as you see this through of what's going to -- people are looking at it, and it looks like look who's leaving here, and they got rid of this show. They're not doing this. It's almost like a mural on the side of a building, and you see a lot of stuff falling down. And it's messy, and it's challenging, and it's difficult. It's difficult seeing people leave.

    凱西做到了。錢寧做到了。邁克和帕姆做到了。克里斯已經做到了。現在,我們有一個願景,我們相信這將使這家公司變得強大,成為最有效的媒體公司,以利用我們的多樣化資產。我們不會在所有事情上都是正確的。但是當 - 在 4 或 5 個月內,當我們進入明年,並且我們將在第七局或第八局中通過時,我們會在明年發現很多我們認為也許有點錯誤,但我們有信念。我們對未來、我們要去的地方和我們想做的事情有一個清晰的願景。我們有勇氣。在過去的 7 個月裡,正如你所看到的那樣——人們正在看著它,看起來誰會離開這裡,他們擺脫了這個節目。他們不這樣做。它幾乎就像一棟建築物側面的壁畫,您會看到很多東西掉下來。這很混亂,很有挑戰性,也很困難。很難看到人們離開。

  • But in the end, we're seeing this through, and we're going to come through this a much stronger company, leaner, with real fight and a real sense of what's the quality that we have that's going to help us to win. And when you see that 3 to 4 months from now, I think you're going to get a very clear picture of exactly what this company is. We'll be launching our new products. And with the diversity of content we have, I think we're going to be very formidable.

    但最終,我們看到了這一點,我們將通過這家更強大的公司,更精簡,真正的戰鬥和真正的感覺,我們所擁有的品質將幫助我們贏得勝利。當你看到從現在開始的 3 到 4 個月時,我想你會非常清楚地了解這家公司到底是什麼。我們將推出我們的新產品。隨著我們擁有的內容的多樣性,我認為我們將非常強大。

  • And the free cash flow that we're going to be generating and the EBITDA and the diversity of assets is what is -- what many thought when we started with this company that we weren't just a streaming company and everyone wanted to be just a streaming company, that never made sense. It was like the clicks in the '90s. A sub counted for a lot of money. It doesn't matter what the ARPU was. It doesn't -- so we are focused now on free cash flow, EBITDA. But we're also focused -- we believe that we should be a leader in subscription, in AVOD around the world because we have the highest quality content. And to do that, you can't be the only fishing boat. You can't be the only one out there saying the only way to get me is to come through my portal. And so I'm not going to comment on what AT&T did or what Jeff Bewkes and Parsons did. They all did -- made their best argument and their best sense of how to drive this company.

    我們將產生的自由現金流、EBITDA 和資產的多樣性是什麼——當我們開始與這家公司合作時,許多人認為我們不僅僅是一家流媒體公司,每個人都想成為一家流媒體公司,這從來沒有意義。就像 90 年代的點擊一樣。一個潛艇算很多錢。 ARPU 是多少並不重要。它沒有 - 所以我們現在專注於自由現金流,EBITDA。但我們也很專注——我們相信我們應該成為全球 AVOD 訂閱領域的領導者,因為我們擁有最高質量的內容。要做到這一點,你不能成為唯一的漁船。你不可能是唯一一個說只有通過我的門戶才能找到我的人。所以我不會評論 AT&T 做了什麼,或者 Jeff Bewkes 和 Parsons 做了什麼。他們都做到了——就如何推動這家公司提出了最好的論點和最好的認識。

  • What we did, which is lucky, is we're Monday-morning quarterbacking. It's easy to do that. We can now take a look at what happened with the old Time Warner leadership team, what happened with the AT&T leadership and how many subs did that actually get them. How -- what was the engagement for that? How much money did they spend to get that? How much money are they spending in this area? And is there any return?

    我們所做的,幸運的是,我們是周一早上的四分衛。這樣做很容易。我們現在可以看看舊時代華納領導團隊發生了什麼,AT&T 領導層發生了什麼,以及到底有多少人得到了他們。怎麼樣 - 訂婚是什麼?他們花了多少錢才得到這個?他們在這方面花了多少錢?並且有回報嗎?

  • So it's very easy for us because we can be Monday-morning quarterbacks, and we're taking full advantage of that. And we're not going to make those same mistakes or we're going to change strategy, more importantly, because those strategies could've worked. It could have been that in many areas, we could be sitting here saying, but -- so should Amazon and should a number of other distributors be out there sub distributing for us? We're looking very hard at it because we need as many people -- we have -- we think we got the best product. We should have as many people pushing it as possible.

    所以這對我們來說很容易,因為我們可以成為周一早上的四分衛,我們正在充分利用這一點。我們不會犯同樣的錯誤,或者我們會改變策略,更重要的是,因為這些策略本可以奏效。在許多領域,我們可能會坐在這裡說,但是——亞馬遜和其他一些分銷商是否應該在那里為我們進行分銷?我們正在非常努力地研究它,因為我們需要盡可能多的人——我們有——我們認為我們得到了最好的產品。我們應該讓盡可能多的人推動它。

  • We have a great relationship with Amazon. We -- that was a deal that we did in -- we're the leader in sport in the U.K. with our BT-Eurosport venture. And in the Champions League, we did a deal where we got 90%. We used to -- we had 100% of it. In the renewal, we got 93% of it, and Amazon got 7%. For that 7%, we produce the content for them. We get paid a fee. We promote to them. We get a fee. We work together effectively. I was up with Andy Jassy 2 weeks ago in his house. Amazon is formidable. There's a lot that we've been doing together that has been helpful to us. They're buyers of our content. Before, we weren't selling any content to them. Now we're selling content to them. We wouldn't sell everything to them, but they're an important company. They have a broad reach, and there are a number of other companies that also do.

    我們與亞馬遜的關係很好。我們——這是我們達成的一項協議——我們是英國體育界的領導者。我們的 BT-Eurosport 合資企業。在冠軍聯賽中,我們做了一筆交易,我們得到了 90%。我們曾經 - 我們擁有 100%。在續訂中,我們獲得了 93%,亞馬遜獲得了 7%。對於這 7%,我們為他們製作內容。我們得到報酬。我們向他們宣傳。我們收取費用。我們一起有效地工作。兩週前,我在安迪·賈西(Andy Jassy)的家里和他在一起。亞馬遜是強大的。我們一起做了很多對我們有幫助的事情。他們是我們內容的買家。以前,我們不向他們出售任何內容。現在我們正在向他們出售內容。我們不會把所有東西都賣給他們,但他們是一家重要的公司。它們具有廣泛的影響力,還有許多其他公司也這樣做。

  • And so when we look at ourselves and saying, we have the highest quality content, we've got a series of products, and we have a huge number of libraries, how do we monetize those to build assets for ourselves and also to build cash flow off of the value of something that we have that almost no one else has, massive TV and motion picture libraries with leading IP and the biggest maker of content in the world? And we have chosen the path of selling new content and library to Amazon, but we'll be selective about what we do to each.

    因此,當我們審視自己並說,我們擁有最高質量的內容,我們擁有一系列產品,我們擁有大量圖書館,我們如何將這些貨幣化為我們自己建立資產並建立現金我們擁有幾乎沒有其他人擁有的東西的價值,擁有領先的 IP 和世界上最大的內容製造商的大型電視和電影庫?我們已經選擇了向亞馬遜銷售新內容和庫的路徑,但我們會選擇性地對待每一個內容。

  • On the point of NBA, we have NBA for the next 3 years, and we have been very successful with Adam Silver. To the credit of the whole leadership team at TNT over the last couple of years, NBA live is a fantastic show. It's the leading show for the NBA. Ratings are up almost 30%, Inside the NBA. And our ratings on the games themselves are higher than the competitors in the marketplace. We also have Bleacher Report. We have House of Highlights. When -- we're promoting the NBA across all of our platforms.

    在 NBA 方面,我們在接下來的 3 年裡都擁有 NBA,而且我們在亞當·蕭華的幫助下非常成功。在過去的幾年裡,TNT 整個領導團隊的功勞是,NBA live 是一場精彩的表演。這是NBA的頭號秀。在 NBA 內部,收視率上升了近 30%。而且我們對遊戲本身的評分高於市場上的競爭對手。我們也有看台報告。我們有亮點之家。什麼時候——我們在我們所有的平台上推廣NBA。

  • And when Adam thinks about the future, he thinks about it the same way that I do. He doesn't love the -- none of us love the idea that the only way to watch these games is on cable. There should be an opportunity because there's a lot of people under 25 that aren't having access to it. The good news is many of them are now tuning into TNT. That's a goody for us. But it's not lost on Adam that we have a platform that reaches almost 100 million homes and that we're going to be launching that new platform, and it's going to be a very -- the technology and the overall usability of the platform is strong. We got over 30 million people watching House of the Dragon and watching Euphoria. We're global. We're the leader in sports in Europe. We're one of the leaders in sports in Latin America. And so none of that is lost on Adam. We're having a lot of discussions with him. We love the NBA, but we're going to be disciplined.

    當亞當思考未來時,他的想法和我一樣。他不喜歡——我們都不喜歡觀看這些比賽的唯一方式是通過有線電視的想法。應該有機會,因為有很多 25 歲以下的人無法使用它。好消息是他們中的許多人現在正在調整 TNT。這對我們來說是件好事。但亞當並沒有忘記,我們擁有一個覆蓋近 1 億家庭的平台,我們將推出這個新平台,這將是一個非常強大的技術和平台的整體可用性.我們有超過 3000 萬人在觀看《龍之屋》和《欣快感》。我們是全球性的。我們是歐洲體育界的領導者。我們是拉丁美洲體育界的領導者之一。所以這一切都不會在亞當身上丟失。我們正在和他進行很多討論。我們熱愛NBA,但我們要遵守紀律。

  • In the end, if there's an NBA deal, it's going to be a deal that's very attractive for us and very attractive for Adam. But we have a lot of tools in that. We have a lot of sports assets that no one else has. We've got a global sports business that nobody else has. And we have a platform, a high-quality platform like HBO Max that could generate 30 million people watching within a short period of time for a great piece of content. Imagine what that could do with sport, and we've had very good luck with sport in Europe. So I think it's an opportunity. We like the NBA, but we're going to be disciplined. I'm hopeful that we can do something very creative.

    最後,如果有一份NBA交易,那將是一筆對我們非常有吸引力的交易,對亞當也非常有吸引力。但是我們在這方面有很多工具。我們有很多其他人沒有的體育資產。我們擁有其他人沒有的全球體育業務。我們有一個平台,一個像 HBO Max 這樣的高質量平台,可以在短時間內產生 3000 萬人觀看精彩的內容。想像一下這對體育有什麼影響,我們在歐洲的體育事業上運氣很好。所以我認為這是一個機會。我們喜歡NBA,但我們要遵守紀律。我希望我們可以做一些非常有創意的事情。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes the conference call for today. Thank you for participating, and we ask that you disconnect your lines.

    女士們,先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與,我們要求您斷開線路。