沃博聯公司 (WBA) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Walgreens Boots Alliance Fiscal Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Tiffany Kanaga, Vice President, Global Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

在這個時候，我想歡迎大家參加 Walgreens Boots Alliance 2022 財年收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）Tiffany Kanaga，全球投資者關係副總裁，您可以開始您的會議了。

Good morning. Thank you for joining us for the Walgreens Boots Alliance Earnings Call for the Fourth Quarter of Fiscal Year 2022. I'm Tiffany Kanaga, Vice President of Global Investor Relations. Joining me on today's call are Roz Brewer, our Chief Executive Officer; James Kehoe, our Chief Financial Officer; and John Driscoll, President of our U.S. Healthcare segment. Rick Gates, Senior Vice President of Pharmacy and Healthcare at Walgreens, will participate in Q&A.

早上好。感謝您參加 Walgreens Boots Alliance 2022 財年第四季度財報電話會議。我是全球投資者關係副總裁 Tiffany Kanaga。和我一起參加今天的電話會議的是我們的首席執行官 Roz Brewer；我們的首席財務官 James Kehoe；和美國醫療保健部門總裁 John Driscoll。 Walgreens 藥房和醫療保健高級副總裁 Rick Gates 將參加問答環節。

Today's call will be approximately 2 hours in length, including Q&A. Let me note that we will be referring to our segments by their new names, U.S. Retail Pharmacy International and U.S. Healthcare. The renaming did not result in any change to the composition of the segments. Additionally, all references to the COVID-19 headwind include U.S. vaccines, drive-through tests and OTC tests.

今天的電話會議時長約為 2 小時，包括問答環節。請注意，我們將使用新名稱 U.S. Retail Pharmacy International 和 U.S. Healthcare 來指代我們的細分市場。重命名並未導致段的組成發生任何變化。此外，所有提及 COVID-19 逆風的內容都包括美國疫苗、免下車測試和 OTC 測試。

As always, during the conference call, we anticipate making projections and forward-looking statements based on our current expectations. Our actual results could differ materially due to a number of factors, including those listed on Slide 2 and those outlined in our latest Forms 10-K and 10-Q filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We undertake no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statement after this presentation, whether as a result of new information, future events, changes in assumptions or otherwise. You can find our press release and the slides referenced on this call in the Investors section of the Walgreens Boots Alliance website. The slides and the press release also contain further information about non-GAAP financial measures that we will discuss today during this call. I will now turn the call over to Roz.

與往常一樣，在電話會議期間，我們預計會根據我們目前的預期做出預測和前瞻性陳述。由於多種因素，我們的實際結果可能存在重大差異，包括幻燈片 2 中列出的因素以及我們向證券交易委員會提交的最新表格 10-K 和 10-Q 中概述的因素。我們不承擔在此演示文稿後公開更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務，無論是由於新信息、未來事件、假設變化或其他原因。您可以在 Walgreens Boots Alliance 網站的投資者部分找到我們的新聞稿和本次電話會議中引用的幻燈片。幻燈片和新聞稿還包含有關我們今天將在本次電話會議中討論的非公認會計原則財務措施的更多信息。我現在將把電話轉給 Roz。

Thanks, Tiffany, and good morning, everyone. It's great to be with all of you today, and it's hard to believe the whole year has gone by since our Investor Day last October. As I said to you then, and I'm deeply committed to being as open and transparent as possible about our business. We have scheduled a longer call this morning to provide a more in-depth update and also to spend additional time on Q&A to hear from you. I'm looking forward to reviewing our execution over the past year. We delivered ahead of our expectations in fiscal year '22 and are well underway in our transformation to a consumer-centric healthcare company.

謝謝，蒂芙尼，大家早上好。今天很高興與大家在一起，很難相信自去年 10 月的投資者日以來一整年都過去了。正如我當時對你所說的那樣，我堅定地致力於對我們的業務盡可能公開和透明。我們安排了今天早上更長的電話會議，以提供更深入的更新，並花更多時間進行問答以聽取您的意見。我期待著回顧我們過去一年的執行情況。我們在 22 財年的表現超出了我們的預期，並且正在向以消費者為中心的醫療保健公司轉型。

Today, we'll also provide much greater visibility to the road ahead. Our fiscal year '23 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.45 to $4.65 is down year-over-year largely due to lapping COVID-19 execution. However, we expect strong 8% to 10% core growth to underpin our results. We are rapidly scaling U.S. healthcare, already raising long-term sales targets with a clear path to achieve profitability starting in fiscal year '24.

今天，我們還將為前方的道路提供更大的可見性。我們的 23 財年調整後每股收益指引為 4.45 美元至 4.65 美元，同比下降主要是由於 COVID-19 的執行。然而，我們預計強勁的 8% 至 10% 的核心增長將支撐我們的業績。我們正在迅速擴大美國醫療保健業務，已經提高了長期銷售目標，並為從 24 財年開始實現盈利提供了明確的途徑。

It's early, but our strategy is working. We are making good progress on each of our 4 priorities. We're simplifying and strengthening the company. Our numerous accomplishments this year, despite a difficult operating climate, bolster our confidence in accelerating to our long-term algorithm of low teens adjusted EPS growth. We have a winning team and winning assets to unlock sustainable shareholder value as we reimagine local healthcare and wellness for all.

現在還早，但我們的策略正在奏效。我們在 4 個優先事項中的每一個方面都取得了良好的進展。我們正在簡化和加強公司。儘管經營環境艱難，但我們今年取得的眾多成就增強了我們對加速實現低青少年調整後每股收益增長的長期算法的信心。在我們為所有人重新構想當地醫療保健和健康的過程中，我們擁有一支成功的團隊和成功的資產來釋放可持續的股東價值。

As you'll remember from last October, we introduced 4 strategic priorities: first, transform and align the core business; Second, build our next growth engine, U.S. healthcare; third, focus on portfolio and optimize capital allocation; and fourth, build a high-performance culture and a winning team. Our 4 key priorities capture value across both core retail pharmacy and growth spaces in healthcare. We are already delivering consumer-centric primary care services. improving the patient experience and health outcomes while lowering cost and leveraging our assets across the care continuum to treat the whole person.

您會記得，從去年 10 月開始，我們引入了 4 個戰略重點：第一，轉型和調整核心業務；第二，打造我們的下一個增長引擎，美國醫療保健；三是聚焦投資組合，優化資金配置；第四，打造高績效文化和致勝團隊。我們的 4 個關鍵優先事項在核心零售藥店和醫療保健增長空間中獲取價值。我們已經在提供以消費者為中心的初級保健服務。改善患者體驗和健康結果，同時降低成本並利用我們在整個護理過程中的資產來治療整個人。

We are executing through our unique strength in our hyper local footprint and trusted iconic Walgreens' brand. At the same time, we're reinforcing our capabilities for the journey. We have and we'll continue to take measured and strategic actions to optimize our portfolio. We are also evolving our team with new talent, new skills and fresh ideas but with a singular focus on driving real value for our patients and [for our] communities, our people and our shareholders.

我們正在通過我們在超本地足跡和值得信賴的標誌性沃爾格林品牌方面的獨特實力來執行。與此同時，我們正在加強我們的旅程能力。我們已經並將繼續採取有針對性的戰略行動來優化我們的投資組合。我們也在用新的人才、新的技能和新的想法來發展我們的團隊，但特別關注為我們的患者和[為我們的]社區、我們的員工和我們的股東創造真正的價值。

Let me review fiscal year '22 progress against each strategic priority. First, I'm pleased to say that we broadly exceeded our strategic goals across the core Retail Pharmacy business despite a challenging macro environment. Our script count is the one soft spot for the year to call out. I'll talk more about how we're addressing that in a moment. However, we still surpassed our U.S. and International adjusted operating income targets with very good execution in the front end.

讓我根據每個戰略重點回顧 '22 財年的進展情況。首先，我很高興地說，儘管宏觀環境充滿挑戰，但我們在核心零售藥房業務中廣泛超出了我們的戰略目標。我們的劇本數量是這一年最值得關注的一個地方。稍後我將詳細討論我們如何解決這個問題。然而，我們仍然超過了我們在美國和國際調整後的營業收入目標，在前端執行得非常好。

U.S. and Boots U.K. retail comp sales were both strong, with the U.S. up 6% and Boots up 19%. Several of our initiatives are continuing to gain traction. U.S. digital sales grew 37% for the year on top of 74% growth in 2021. My Walgreens membership surge passed a big milestone reaching 102 million customers. And I'm encouraged by the innovation and growth happening at our owned brands program.

美國和 Boots UK 的零售銷售均強勁，美國增長 6%，Boots 增長 19%。我們的一些舉措繼續受到關注。在 2021 年增長 74% 的基礎上，美國數字銷售額今年增長了 37%。我的 Walgreens 會員激增超過了一個重要的里程碑，達到了 1.02 億客戶。我對我們自有品牌計劃中發生的創新和增長感到鼓舞。

I am also proud of our significant U.S. retail margin expansion up over 100 basis points, while many other companies like Big-Box retailers are under pressure because they are more dependent on big ticket items. We are seeing meaningful contributions from alternative profit streams at $125 million in income for the year, including Walgreens Advertising Group with 35% growth. And you'll remember that we raised the target for our transformational cost management program last quarter to $3.5 billion with an expanding funnel of cost savings initiatives.

我也為我們在美國的零售利潤率大幅增長超過 100 個基點感到自豪，而像 Big-Box 零售商這樣的許多其他公司正面臨壓力，因為它們更依賴大件商品。我們看到替代性利潤流的有意義貢獻為 1.25 億美元，其中包括沃爾格林廣告集團，增長 35%。您會記得，我們在上個季度將轉型成本管理計劃的目標提高到了 35 億美元，並擴大了成本節約計劃的渠道。

In the pharmacy, Walgreens team members have proven that they are highly trusted healthcare resources. We administered 35 million vaccinations in fiscal 2022 well beyond our expectations. With demand for pharmacy services at an all-time high due to COVID-19, we have seen a tightening in the labor market for pharmacists and pharmacy technicians.

在藥房，Walgreens 團隊成員已經證明他們是備受信賴的醫療保健資源。我們在 2022 財年接種了 3500 萬次疫苗，遠遠超出了我們的預期。由於 COVID-19 導致對藥房服務的需求達到歷史最高水平，我們看到藥劑師和藥房技術人員的勞動力市場趨緊。

This has unfortunately led to staffing shortages in some of our markets. In turn creating a headwind for prescription growth. Scripts were up a softer-than-expected 1.4% in fiscal year '22. We are focusing investments to return about 3,000 stores to normal operating hours, which I expect will drive script volume recovery as we move through fiscal year '23.

不幸的是，這導致我們的一些市場出現人員短缺。反過來為處方增長創造了逆風。腳本在 22 財年增長了 1.4%，低於預期。我們正在集中投資以使約 3,000 家商店恢復正常營業時間，我預計這將在我們進入 23 財年時推動腳本量的恢復。

We're seeing positive staffing trends with 11 straight weeks of net pharmacist head count increases. We have also opened our eighth automated microfulfillment center and are now supporting 1,800 total stores. Our pace is somewhat slower than expected, in part due to supply side construction delays, but I'm pleased with the performance of the centers we do have up and running. These facilities remove routine tasks and excess inventory from the pharmacy, which is expected to reduce working capital by over $1 billion over time.

我們看到了積極的人員配備趨勢，藥劑師淨人數連續 11 週增加。我們還開設了第八個自動化微配送中心，目前為 1,800 家商店提供支持。我們的步伐比預期的要慢一些，部分原因是供應方面的建設延誤，但我對我們已經建立和運行的中心的表現感到滿意。這些設施消除了藥房的日常任務和多餘的庫存，預計隨著時間的推移，營運資金將減少超過 10 億美元。

Let me take a moment to address the historic macro challenges that are affecting our customer. With inflation at 4-decade highs, consumers are expressing uncertainty about the future and seeking value. At the same time, we know that health and wellness will always be a priority and increasingly so after COVID-19.

讓我花點時間來解決影響我們客戶的歷史性宏觀挑戰。隨著通脹處於 4 年來的高位，消費者對未來表達了不確定性並尋求價值。同時，我們知道健康和保健將始終是重中之重，並且在 COVID-19 之後越來越如此。

A McKinsey study from last month showed that around 50% of U.S. consumers now report wellness as a top priority in their day-to-day lives, a significant rise from 42% just 2 years ago. We're leveraging our footprint, our digital capabilities, our consumer insights and our essential services to drive overall retail pharmacy growth. We have a resilient core business with a mix that over-indexes to need now categories, and we are better positioned now than we were in prior periods of economic turbulence.

麥肯錫上個月的一項研究表明，大約 50% 的美國消費者現在表示健康是他們日常生活中的頭等大事，比兩年前的 42% 有了顯著增長。我們正在利用我們的足跡、我們的數字能力、我們的消費者洞察力和我們的基本服務來推動整體零售藥店的增長。我們有一個有彈性的核心業務，其組合超過了現在需要的類別，而且我們現在的定位比之前的經濟動盪時期更好。

Our execution during the pandemic is just one example of our pharmacy services at the center of our communities and as part of an integrated healthcare experience. In the U.S., we have administered nearly 72 million COVID-19 vaccinations and completed over 34 million PCR and antigen tests to date.

我們在大流行期間的執行只是我們在社區中心的藥房服務的一個例子，也是綜合醫療保健體驗的一部分。在美國，迄今為止，我們已經接種了近 7200 萬次 COVID-19 疫苗，並完成了超過 3400 萬次 PCR 和抗原檢測。

Second, we've improved the customer experience, and it's showing every day through offering strong value, better in-stock conditions and increased service levels. We've been managing inflation and collaborating closely with suppliers. We're maintaining price versus competitors and meeting our customers with robust in-stock levels that are above last year despite supply chain constraints. The products we sell are sourced from a wide variety of domestic and international vendors. The team is also deploying advanced forecasting and replenishment technology, including AI.

其次，我們改善了客戶體驗，通過提供強大的價值、更好的庫存條件和更高的服務水平，它每天都在展示。我們一直在管理通貨膨脹並與供應商密切合作。儘管供應鏈受到限制，我們仍保持與競爭對手相比的價格，並以高於去年的強勁庫存水平滿足我們的客戶。我們銷售的產品來自各種國內和國際供應商。該團隊還部署了先進的預測和補貨技術，包括人工智能。

The outcome is a better, more dependable shopping experience for our customers during these turbulent times and stronger results for our retail business.

結果是在這些動盪時期為我們的客戶提供更好、更可靠的購物體驗，並為我們的零售業務帶來更強勁的業績。

Finally, we expect reimbursement pressure on payer contracts to be predictable, as fiscal year '22 was in line with plan. We've already locked in 95% of payer contracts through calendar year '23.

最後，我們預計付款人合同的償付壓力是可以預測的，因為 22 財年符合計劃。到 23 日曆年，我們已經鎖定了 95% 的付款人合同。

Turning to our next strategic priority. We're making important strides and consistent progress in building our next growth engine, the U.S. Healthcare segment. Let me start with CareCentrix. With our announcement on Tuesday that we are accelerating full ownership, we are very well positioned in the home care market. And if the initial acquisition of a 55% stake had closed in line with our original time frame, we would have achieved our $3 billion to $3.2 billion sales goal in fiscal year '22.

轉向我們的下一個戰略重點。我們在構建下一個增長引擎——美國醫療保健部門方面取得了重要進展和持續進展。讓我從 CareCentrix 開始。隨著我們週二宣布我們正在加速完全所有權，我們在家庭護理市場上處於非常有利的位置。如果最初收購 55% 股權的交易按照我們最初的時間框架完成，我們將在 22 財年實現 30 億至 32 億美元的銷售目標。

Next, VillageMD and Shields continue to realize tremendous top line growth, driving pro forma total growth of 75% for the year. We've added 3 strategic partners for Walgreens Health; Blue Shield of California, Clover and Buckeye, bringing the number of lives covered above our calendar '22 year-end target of $2 million. VillageMD is leading the way in value-based care for the nation with over 340 clinics now open, including about 150 co-located with Walgreens on pace towards 200 by the end of calendar year '22.

接下來，VillageMD 和 Shields 繼續實現巨大的收入增長，推動全年預計總增長 75%。我們為 Walgreens Health 添加了 3 個戰略合作夥伴； Blue Shield of California、Clover 和 Buckeye，使覆蓋的生命數量超過了我們 22 年 200 萬美元的日曆目標。 VillageMD 在為全國提供基於價值的護理方面處於領先地位，目前開設了 340 多家診所，其中包括約 150 家與 Walgreens 合用的診所，到 22 年年底將達到 200 家。

Remember that we raised the target from 160 back in January. We're also adding health corners on schedule with 70 now on the way to 100 by the end of '22. Through our accelerated rollout, VillageMD already covers 433,000 lives under value-based arrangements, including 161,000 Medicare and MA value-based lives. At the same time, CareCentrix has 19 million total contracted lives, and Shields has partnered with 75 health systems. Our healthcare strategy is now coming to life and far from just being in the planning stages, it is well underway and can be seen in our best-in-class assets. We are moving swiftly to implement our vision of consumer-centric tech-enabled healthcare solutions that improve outcomes and lower costs for patients, providers and payers.

請記住，我們在一月份將目標從 160 提高了。我們還按計劃增加了健康角，到 22 年底將有 70 個到 100 個。通過我們的加速推出，VillageMD 已經在基於價值的安排下覆蓋了 433,000 條生命，其中包括 161,000 條基於醫療保險和 MA 價值的生命。與此同時，CareCentrix 擁有 1900 萬總簽約生命，Shields 已與 75 個衛生系統合作。我們的醫療保健戰略現已付諸實施，遠不止處於規劃階段，它正在順利進行，並且可以在我們一流的資產中看到。我們正在迅速採取行動，以實現我們以消費者為中心的技術支持的醫療保健解決方案的願景，以改善患者、提供者和付款人的結果並降低成本。

Over the course of the past year, we also took several actions to better align our investment portfolio with our strategy. These decisions will fund our continued growth and simplify the business. In addition to building our partnerships with VillageMD, Shields and CareCentrix, we also completed a thorough review of the Boots business. Our decision to pause the process was a reflection of challenging financial market conditions, and the Board and I remain confident that the business carry strong fundamental value.

在過去的一年裡，我們還採取了一些行動，以更好地使我們的投資組合與我們的戰略保持一致。這些決定將為我們的持續增長提供資金並簡化業務。除了與 VillageMD、Shields 和 CareCentrix 建立合作夥伴關係外，我們還完成了對 Boots 業務的全面審查。我們暫停這一進程的決定反映了金融市場狀況的挑戰，董事會和我仍然相信該業務具有強大的基本價值。

We continue to have sufficient access to capital to accomplish all that we need to do as demonstrated by our ability to opportunistically monetize portions of our portfolio. Recent transactions involve AmeriSourceBergen, unlocking $900 million; Option Care Health with $360 million in proceeds; and GPC at $150 million. There is good financial flexibility through our total portfolio, and we are entering fiscal year '23 on a clear trajectory to a simpler, more streamlined company. Additionally, we increased the dividend for the 47th consecutive year in July, and we remain committed to growing the dividend over time.

我們繼續有足夠的資金渠道來完成我們需要做的所有事情，這體現在我們有能力將部分投資組合貨幣化。近期交易涉及 AmeriSourceBergen，解鎖 9 億美元； Option Care Health 的收益為 3.6 億美元；和 GPC 1.5 億美元。我們的整體投資組合具有良好的財務靈活性，我們正以清晰的軌跡進入 23 財年，成為一家更簡單、更精簡的公司。此外，我們在 7 月份連續第 47 年增加了股息，我們仍然致力於隨著時間的推移增加股息。

Finally, I want to cover our progress on our fourth strategic priority. We have evolved our operating model, expanded expertise on our Board, hired new leaders and made critical investments in our winning team. We have restructured our executive committee to align with best practices in healthcare.

最後，我想介紹一下我們在第四個戰略重點方面的進展。我們已經改進了我們的運營模式，擴大了董事會的專業知識，聘請了新的領導者，並對我們的獲勝團隊進行了關鍵投資。我們已經重組了我們的執行委員會，以符合醫療保健的最佳實踐。

In recognition of the central role of technology in healthcare, we have taken several actions. We reconstituted our Board's Finance Committee as the Finance and Technology Committee, appointed IBM's Global Chief Data Officer, Inderpal Bhandari, to the Board and named our next Chief Information Officer. Beyond that, we have named over 10 senior executives since the start of fiscal '22, including a new structure for U.S. Retail Pharmacy.

認識到技術在醫療保健中的核心作用，我們採取了幾項行動。我們將董事會的財務委員會重組為財務和技術委員會，任命 IBM 的全球首席數據官 Inderpal Bhandari 為董事會成員，並任命了下一任首席信息官。除此之外，自 22 財年開始以來，我們已經任命了 10 多名高級管理人員，其中包括美國零售藥房的新結構。

It's always been important to me to prioritize our most meaningful assets, which is our team members. I have no doubt that investments in our people will yield large rewards as we recruit and retain the very best talent, which will allow us to recover our script count growth and enhance our customer experience.

優先考慮我們最有意義的資產，即我們的團隊成員，對我來說一直很重要。我毫不懷疑，在我們招募和留住最優秀的人才時，對我們員工的投資將產生豐厚的回報，這將使我們能夠恢復劇本數量的增長並增強我們的客戶體驗。

At the support office level, we're pleased to announce incremental measures to align compensation with our strategic ambitions and shareholder interest by adopting a relative TSR metric in our long-term incentive plan for fiscal year '23. We are all invested in, and accountable for, the success of our company.

在支持辦公室層面，我們很高興地宣布通過在我們 23 財年的長期激勵計劃中採用相對 TSR 指標來使薪酬與我們的戰略目標和股東利益保持一致的增量措施。我們都投資於公司的成功，並對公司的成功負責。

At our stores, we invested an incremental $190 million dedicated to our pharmacy staff in fiscal year '22 primarily in premium pay and bonuses. Fiscal year '23 will include further investments in our pharmacy team of $265 million as we made good progress in returning stores to normal operating hours. As a reminder, this is in addition to the minimum wage increases we announced last year, which, consistent with prior guidance, represent a year-over-year impact of $260 million in fiscal year '23, building to $450 million over the 3-year period.

在我們的商店，我們在 22 財年為我們的藥房員工增加了 1.9 億美元，主要用於保費和獎金。 '23 財年將包括對我們藥房團隊的進一步投資 2.65 億美元，因為我們在使商店恢復正常營業時間方面取得了良好進展。提醒一下，這是我們去年宣布的最低工資增長的補充，與之前的指導一致，這代表了 23 財年 2.6 億美元的同比影響，在 3-3 財年增至 4.5 億美元。年期間。

As we discuss these investments in our team members, let me take a moment here to stop and fully appreciate how important their work is. Just as the crisis level impact of the pandemic has started to subside, we've seen tragedy strike with the Hurricanes in Florida and Puerto Rico. Our teams, as they always do, responded decisively on behalf of their communities and really rose to the occasion.

當我們討論對團隊成員的這些投資時，讓我在這裡停下來，充分了解他們的工作的重要性。正如大流行的危機影響已經開始消退一樣，我們已經看到佛羅里達和波多黎各的颶風發生了悲劇。我們的團隊一如既往地代表他們的社區做出了果斷的回應，並真正迎難而上。

My message to our colleagues on the front line is thank you, once again, from all of us at WBA, and we're so very proud of your leadership.

我要向一線同事傳達的信息是，再次感謝 WBA 的所有人，我們為您的領導能力感到非常自豪。

Now let me go into more detail on the deep and talented bench of leaders at WBA. Most recently, we were excited to announce on Tuesday that John Driscoll has joined our team as President of our U.S. Healthcare segment. Our U.S. business is now organized under 3 leaders, Healthcare under John Driscoll; Pharmacy under Lee Cooper from Shields; and Retail under Tracey Brown. John has more than 25 years of expertise, including as President of Castlight Health, a healthcare tech company, Group President for new markets at Medco, a $70 billion PBM that spun out of Merck; and Founder and Chair of the Surescripts e-prescribing network, the first cross industry collaborative with competing retail, PBM and health plans.

現在讓我更詳細地介紹 WBA 深厚而才華橫溢的領導層。最近，我們很高興在周二宣布 John Driscoll 已加入我們的團隊，擔任我們美國醫療保健部門的總裁。我們的美國業務現在由 3 位領導人組成，醫療保健由 John Driscoll 領導；來自 Shields 的 Lee Cooper 領導下的藥房；和特蕾西布朗的零售。 John 擁有超過 25 年的專業經驗，包括擔任醫療科技公司 Castlight Health 的總裁、Medco 新市場的集團總裁，該公司是從默克公司剝離出來的價值 700 億美元的 PBM； Surescripts 電子處方網絡的創始人和主席，這是第一個與競爭性零售、PBM 和健康計劃進行跨行業合作的網絡。

Lee previously served as CEO of GE Healthcare in the U.S. and Canada before leading Shields for rapid expansion. He has demonstrated proven success in driving growth, creating omni-channel customer experiences, establishing high-performance cultures and executing with excellence.

在領導 Shields 快速擴張之前，Lee 曾擔任美國和加拿大 GE Healthcare 的首席執行官。他在推動增長、創造全渠道客戶體驗、建立高績效文化和卓越執行方面已證明是成功的。

And already in just 1 year at WBA, Tracey has made major strides in our customer experience. Tracey's team is creating highly personalized offerings for our consumers across our digital and physical assets. We are confident in the road ahead with the right team leading us through hard decisions today.

在 WBA 工作的短短 1 年裡，Tracey 在我們的客戶體驗方面取得了重大進展。 Tracey 的團隊正在通過我們的數字和實物資產為我們的消費者創造高度個性化的產品。我們對未來的道路充滿信心，有正確的團隊帶領我們做出今天的艱難決定。

We exceeded expectations in fiscal year '22, successfully managing our resilient core business. While there are macroeconomic challenges, we are executing well and expecting strong core growth of 8% to 10% in the year ahead. We are scaling our winning assets to accelerate growth and profitability of our U.S. Healthcare business.

我們在 22 財年超出了預期，成功管理了我們富有彈性的核心業務。儘管存在宏觀經濟挑戰，但我們表現良好，預計來年核心增長將強勁增長 8% 至 10%。我們正在擴大我們的獲勝資產，以加速我們美國醫療保健業務的增長和盈利能力。

We are investing in strategic talent and capabilities, and we're taking strong action to simplify our portfolio. Our strategy is working to strengthen the business and build a solid foundation for sustainable shareholder value creation. With that, I'll hand it over to James to provide more color on our results and our outlook.

我們正在投資於戰略人才和能力，我們正在採取強有力的行動來簡化我們的投資組合。我們的戰略是努力加強業務並為可持續的股東價值創造奠定堅實的基礎。有了這個，我會把它交給詹姆斯，為我們的結果和前景提供更多的色彩。

Thank you, Roz, and good morning. Overall, we had a good finish to the year with fourth quarter results slightly ahead of our expectations. We continue to drive strong execution across all of our operating segments and rapidly expand our U.S. healthcare business.

謝謝你，羅茲，早上好。總體而言，我們今年取得了不錯的成績，第四季度的業績略高於我們的預期。我們繼續在我們所有的運營部門推動強有力的執行，並迅速擴大我們的美國醫療保健業務。

As a reminder, we are lapping a very strong prior year when adjusted EPS grew 28%, boosted by COVID-19 vaccinations. Year-over-year comparisons are also impacted by higher investments in the U.S. Healthcare segment, including the acquisition of a majority stake in VillageMD.

提醒一下，在 COVID-19 疫苗接種的推動下，調整後的每股收益增長了 28%，我們在前一年的表現非常強勁。美國醫療保健領域投資增加，包括收購 VillageMD 的多數股權，也影響了同比比較。

Sales declined 3.2% on a constant currency basis, excluding the negative impact from AllianceRx and the positive contributions from healthcare M&A. Constant currency sales growth was around 2%. Adjusted EPS was $0.80 in the quarter, a constant currency decrease of 30% entirely driven by the decline in adjusted operating income and partly offset by a lower tax rate.

按固定匯率計算，銷售額下降 3.2%，不包括 AllianceRx 的負面影響和醫療保健併購的積極貢獻。固定匯率銷售額增長約為 2%。本季度調整後每股收益為 0.80 美元，固定匯率下降 30%，這完全是由於調整後的營業收入下降，部分被較低的稅率所抵消。

Solid gross profit performance in U.S. retail and the continued rebound in international were offset by the lapping of peak COVID-19 vaccinations in the year ago quarter and planned growth investments in U.S. healthcare. GAAP earnings per share was a loss of $0.48, which compares to earnings per share of $0.41 last year mostly due to a $780 million noncash impairment charge in Boots UK and higher charges related to the transformational cost management program, reflecting incremental store closures. Please note that the Boots impairment charges were related to trademarks and licenses and were mostly due to the impact of higher discount rates.

美國零售業穩健的毛利潤表現和國際市場的持續反彈被去年同期 COVID-19 疫苗接種高峰的到來以及美國醫療保健計劃的增長投資所抵消。 GAAP 每股收益為 0.48 美元，而去年每股收益為 0.41 美元，主要是由於 Boots UK 的 7.8 億美元非現金減值費用以及與轉型成本管理計劃相關的更高費用，反映了商店關閉的增加。請注意，Boots 減值費用與商標和許可有關，主要是由於較高貼現率的影響。

Now let's move to the full year financial highlights. Full year sales increased 1.2% on a constant currency basis. However, if you exclude the 5.5 percentage point negative impact from AllianceRx, and positive contributions from U.S. healthcare M&A activity, core sales growth was a healthy 6%. Adjusted EPS was $5.04, a constant currency increase of 3.4% and above our initial guidance of flat EPS. Furthermore, the result included a 5.5 percentage point headwind from the build-out of the U.S. healthcare segment. In summary, full year core sales grew by 6% and adjusted EPS increased 3.4%.

現在讓我們轉到全年財務亮點。按固定匯率計算，全年銷售額增長 1.2%。然而，如果排除 AllianceRx 帶來的 5.5 個百分點的負面影響，以及美國醫療保健併購活動的積極貢獻，核心銷售額增長為 6%。調整後每股收益為 5.04 美元，按固定匯率計算，增長 3.4%，高於我們最初持平每股收益的指引。此外，結果包括美國醫療保健部門的擴張帶來了 5.5 個百分點的逆風。綜上所述，全年核心銷售額增長 6%，調整後每股收益增長 3.4%。

Now let's look at the U.S. Retail Pharmacy segment. Sales decreased 7.2% in the quarter as we lapped a very strong prior year comp of 8%, and we faced a 7.8 percentage point headwind from AllianceRx. Adjusted operating income declined 36% lapping strong prior year results when AOI grew 16%, including significant COVID-19 vaccinations. Strength in U.S. retail and continued cost savings were offset by higher labor investments and lower results in U.S. pharmacy.

現在讓我們看看美國零售藥房部分。本季度銷售額下降了 7.2%，因為我們過去一年的銷售額非常強勁，達到了 8%，而且我們面臨來自 AllianceRx 的 7.8 個百分點的逆風。調整後的營業收入下降了 36%，因為 AOI 增長了 16%，其中包括重要的 COVID-19 疫苗接種。美國零售業的強勁勢頭和持續的成本節約被勞動力投資增加和美國藥房業績下降所抵消。

For the full year, AOI was up slightly, reflecting solid core sales growth. Now let's look in more detail at the U.S. Pharmacy. Pharmacy sales declined 8.8% entirely due to a 10.4 percentage point impact from AllianceRx. Comparable pharmacy sales were up 3% despite lapping a very strong 8.9% growth last year. Comp scripts declined 3.5%, and excluding immunizations, comp scripts were flat, which compares to a 4.2% growth in the prior year.

全年，AOI 略有上升，反映了穩健的核心銷售增長。現在讓我們更詳細地了解美國藥房。由於 AllianceRx 的 10.4 個百分點的影響，藥房銷售額下降了 8.8%。儘管去年增長了 8.9%，但可比藥房銷售額增長了 3%。 Comp 腳本下降了 3.5%，不包括免疫接種，comp 腳本持平，而去年增長了 4.2%。

We completed 2.9 million COVID-19 vaccinations in the fourth quarter, well below the 13.5 million vaccinations in the prior year quarter. And this trend was generally in line with our expectations. Pharmacy performance in the quarter benefited from improved trends from seasonal scripts and maintenance medications. However, scripts remain challenged by temporary reductions in store operating hours due to staffing shortages. Operating our limitations impacted scripts by about 270 basis points in the quarter with a full year impact of around 180 basis points.

我們在第四季度完成了 290 萬次 COVID-19 疫苗接種，遠低於去年同期的 1350 萬次。而這一趨勢總體上符合我們的預期。本季度藥房業績受益於季節性處方和維持藥物的改善趨勢。然而，由於人員短缺，商店營業時間暫時減少，劇本仍然面臨挑戰。操作我們的限制在本季度影響腳本約 270 個基點，全年影響約 180 個基點。

As Roz mentioned, actions have been taken to address the staffing challenges, and we are encouraged by the positive hiring trends over the past 11 weeks. This gives us confidence that we can recover script volume as we move into next year. Overall, looking on a 3-year stack basis, which normalizes for COVID-related volatility, comp scripts, excluding immunizations, increased 7.7%.

正如 Roz 所說，我們已採取行動應對人員配備挑戰，過去 11 週的積極招聘趨勢令我們感到鼓舞。這讓我們有信心在進入明年時可以恢復腳本量。總體而言，在 3 年堆棧的基礎上，將與 COVID 相關的波動標準化，comp 腳本（不包括免疫接種）增加了 7.7%。

We administered 3.4 million COVID-19 tests in the quarter compared to 5.2 million last year. Additionally, with payers now reimbursing OTC tests, we sold 7.8 million OTC tests through the pharmacy. As a reminder, our comp script numbers exclude testing.

我們在本季度進行了 340 萬次 COVID-19 測試，而去年為 520 萬次。此外，由於付款人現在對 OTC 測試進行報銷，我們通過藥房售出了 780 萬份 OTC 測試。提醒一下，我們的 comp 腳本編號不包括測試。

Finally, pharmacy adjusted gross profit declined driven by a much lower level of COVID-19 vaccinations and ongoing margin pressure.

最後，由於 COVID-19 疫苗接種水平低得多和持續的利潤率壓力，藥房調整後的毛利潤下降。

Turning next to our U.S. Retail business. Overall, we saw good retail performance as we continue to benefit from our omnichannel and mass personalization initiatives. Comp retail sales decreased 1.9%, and this was largely due to lapping a very strong prior year quarter when sales advanced 6.2%.

轉向我們的美國零售業務。總體而言，我們看到了良好的零售業績，因為我們繼續受益於我們的全渠道和大規模個性化計劃。比較零售額下降 1.9%，這主要是由於去年同期銷售額增長 6.2% 時表現非常強勁。

Overall, our retail business has good underlying momentum with 13% growth on a 3-year stack basis. On a full year basis, comp retail sales were up a strong 6%, the highest in nearly 2 decades with positive contributions from personal care, beauty and cough, cold, flu as well as COVID-19 OTC tests, which contributed about 3 percentage points of growth.

總體而言，我們的零售業務具有良好的基本勢頭，在 3 年的基礎上增長了 13%。在全年的基礎上，comp 零售額強勁增長 6%，是近 20 年來的最高水平，個人護理、美容和咳嗽、感冒、流感以及 COVID-19 非處方藥檢測的積極貢獻約佔 3%增長點。

Retail gross margin expanded throughout the year. reflecting the effective margin management, including strategic pricing and promotion optimization and stabilizing shrink levels.

零售毛利率全年增長。反映有效的利潤管理，包括戰略定價和促銷優化以及穩定收縮水平。

Turning next to the International segment. And as always, I will talk to constant currency numbers. International delivered a strong set of results. Sales increased 6.7%, reflecting growth across all international markets, with Boots U.K. up 6% and Germany wholesale advancing 6.8%. Adjusted operating income was $163 million in the quarter, up 31% versus prior year. The strong finish to the year led to full year sales and adjusted operating income growth of 13% and 65%, respectively.

轉到國際段旁邊。和往常一樣，我將討論不變的貨幣數字。國際取得了一系列強勁的成果。銷售額增長 6.7%，反映了所有國際市場的增長，其中 Boots 英國增長 6%，德國批發增長 6.8%。本季度調整後的營業收入為 1.63 億美元，比去年同期增長 31%。今年的強勁業績導致全年銷售額和調整後營業收入分別增長 13% 和 65%。

Let's now look in more detail at Boots U.K. Strong retail sales performance more than offset a decline in comp pharmacy sales of 7% as we lapped strong demand for COVID-19 services. Comp retail sales advanced 15%, reflecting a 20% rebound in footfall with flagship and travel locations showing robust improvement.

現在讓我們更詳細地了解 Boots UK。由於我們對 COVID-19 服務的強勁需求，強勁的零售業績抵消了藥房銷售額下降 7% 的影響。比較零售額增長 15%，反映了客流量反彈 20%，旗艦店和旅遊地點顯示出強勁的改善。

Market share increased with personal care and health and wellness driving notable gains. Compared to pre-COVID levels, store footfall remains around 15% lower. However, this was more than offset by a 14% increase in store basket size and Boots.com sales that more than doubled. Over 11% of our total U.K. retail sales came from digital in the quarter, up from around 6% pre COVID.

市場份額隨著個人護理和健康與保健的顯著增長而增加。與 COVID 之前的水平相比，商店客流量仍然低 15% 左右。然而，這被商店購物籃大小增加了 14% 和 Boots.com 銷售額增加了一倍以上所抵消。本季度我們英國總零售額的 11% 以上來自數字，高於 COVID 之前的約 6%。

Turning next to U.S. Healthcare. Segment sales were over $600 million in the quarter with pro forma combined sales growth of 34%. VillageMD grew in line with plan and revenue growth is on track as we launch new clinics, scale existing clinics and increased value-based arrangements.

轉向美國醫療保健。本季度分部銷售額超過 6 億美元，預計合併銷售額增長 34%。 VillageMD 的增長與計劃一致，隨著我們推出新診所、擴大現有診所規模和增加基於價值的安排，收入增長步入正軌。

Shields delivered another excellent quarter with pro forma sales growth of 48%, driven by annualizing recent contract wins and by expanding their value proposition with existing health system partners. Segment adjusted operating income was a loss of $151 million in the quarter. Organic investments accounted for $45 million. Investments at VillageMD more than offset the profit contribution from Shields and led to a $106 million AOI loss across our majority investments.

Shields 又一個出色的季度實現了 48% 的備考銷售額增長，這得益於最近贏得的年度合同以及與現有衛生系統合作夥伴擴大其價值主張。本季度，部門調整後的營業收入為虧損 1.51 億美元。有機投資佔 4500 萬美元。 VillageMD 的投資抵消了 Shields 的利潤貢獻，並導致我們大部分投資的 AOI 損失為 1.06 億美元。

The clinic rollout at VillageMD continues on pace. VillageMD had 334 clinics at the end of the year, an increase of 82 clinics compared to prior year. VillageMD had 433,000 value-based patients as of the end of fiscal '22, up from 326,000 at the end of fiscal '21.

VillageMD 的診所推廣工作繼續進行。 VillageMD 年末有 334 家診所，比上年增加 82 家。截至 22 財年末，VillageMD 擁有 433,000 名基於價值的患者，高於 21 財年末的 326,000 名。

Fiscal '22 was a peak investment year and the fourth quarter loss is not a good indicator for fiscal '23 and beyond. VillageMD, Shields and CareCentrix will drive increasingly high contributions as the businesses mature. Additionally, investments in the Walgreens Health organic business will be partially offset by positive contributions from clinical trials expansion and integration synergies.

'22 財年是投資高峰年，第四季度虧損並不是 '23 財年及以後的一個好指標。隨著業務的成熟，VillageMD、Shields 和 CareCentrix 將推動越來越高的貢獻。此外，對 Walgreens Health 有機業務的投資將被臨床試驗擴展和整合協同效應的積極貢獻部分抵消。

Turning next to cash flow. Operating cash flow was $3.9 billion, and free cash flow was $2.2 billion as we cycled through some exceptional headwinds. First, the sales decline of AllianceRx led to the unwinding of a favorable working capital position with a year-over-year impact of $400 million. Secondly, we benefited from COVID-19 government-related support in fiscal '21, whereas this partially reversed as the deferred FICA payments became due in fiscal '22. In total, the year-over-year impact was around $400 million.

轉向現金流。經營現金流為 39 億美元，自由現金流為 22 億美元，因為我們經歷了一些特殊的逆風。首先，AllianceRx 的銷售額下降導致有利的營運資金狀況解除，同比影響為 4 億美元。其次，我們在 21 財年受益於 COVID-19 政府相關支持，而這部分逆轉，因為延期 FICA 付款在 22 財年到期。總體而言，同比影響約為 4 億美元。

Additionally, we executed an inventory prebuy ahead of an expected strong cough, cold, flu and holiday season. And finally, there were some onetime items, including legal settlements in the U.S. of $200 million.

此外，我們在預期的強咳嗽、感冒、流感和假日季節之前執行了庫存預購。最後，還有一些一次性的項目，包括在美國的 2 億美元的法律和解。

Free cash flow was also impacted by a $355 million increase in capital expenditures to support our growth initiatives, including the VillageMD clinic expansion, rollout of microfulfillment centers and continued omnichannel and digital investments.

自由現金流也受到資本支出增加 3.55 億美元的影響，以支持我們的增長計劃，包括 VillageMD 診所擴建、微配送中心的推出以及持續的全渠道和數字投資。

Before moving on, I want to reiterate that our full year EPS grew 3%, ahead of our original guidance of flat, and we made substantial progress against our goals as we build out our U.S. healthcare business. I'll now turn to our fiscal '23 guidance and long-term growth outlook.

在繼續之前，我想重申，我們的全年每股收益增長了 3%，超過了我們最初的持平指引，並且在我們建立美國醫療保健業務的過程中，我們在實現目標方面取得了實質性進展。我現在將轉向我們的 23 財年指導和長期增長前景。

We are guiding to fiscal '23 adjusted EPS of between $4.45 and $4.65 compared to the $5.04 achieved in fiscal '22. While we expect solid core business growth, looking forward into '23, we are facing 2 key challenges. First, we project a much lower level of COVID-19 vaccination and testing activity, and this leads to an earnings headwind of 15% to 17%.

與 22 財年的 5.04 美元相比，我們的 23 財年調整後每股收益在 4.45 美元至 4.65 美元之間。雖然我們預計核心業務增長穩健，但展望 23 年，我們正面臨兩個關鍵挑戰。首先，我們預計 COVID-19 疫苗接種和檢測活動的水平要低得多，這將導致 15% 至 17% 的收益逆風。

Second, the dollar has strengthened significantly and is a 2% headwind to EPS in reported currencies. Excluding these 2 headwinds, we expect core EPS growth of 8% to 10% on a constant currency basis, with positive contributions from all segments. This healthy core growth reinforces our confidence in achieving our long-term growth algorithm. And today, we are providing more clarity and raising our U.S. healthcare targets.

其次，美元大幅走強，以報告的貨幣計算，對每股收益構成 2% 的阻力。排除這兩個不利因素，我們預計核心每股收益在固定貨幣基礎上增長 8% 至 10%，所有部門都做出了積極貢獻。這種健康的核心增長增強了我們實現長期增長算法的信心。而今天，我們正在提供更清晰的信息並提高我們的美國醫療保健目標。

Based on execution to date and improved visibility, we are increasing our 2025 sales target for U.S. healthcare by over 20%, and we are now projecting sales of $11 billion to $12 billion by 2025. Furthermore, we expect the U.S. Healthcare segment to generate positive adjusted EBITDA by fiscal '24. Later, I will provide greater detail on the key drivers.

根據迄今為止的執行情況和提高的知名度，我們將 2025 年美國醫療保健的銷售目標提高 20% 以上，我們現在預計到 2025 年銷售額將達到 110 億美元至 120 億美元。此外，我們預計美國醫療保健部門將產生積極的影響24財年調整後的EBITDA。稍後，我將提供有關關鍵驅動程序的更多詳細信息。

Let me now walk you through our 2023 guidance in greater detail, starting with WBA. Overall, we expect low single-digit sales growth on a constant currency basis. Excluding the COVID-19 headwind, we do expect sales growth of 2% to 4%. This sales growth is also impacted by a 2-percentage point headwind from AllianceRx, which largely cycles out in the second quarter. So if you strip out the AllianceRx and COVID-19 impacts, we expect constant currency sales to be up mid-single digit.

現在讓我更詳細地向您介紹我們的 2023 年指南，從 WBA 開始。總體而言，我們預計在固定貨幣基礎上，銷售額將出現低個位數增長。排除 COVID-19 的不利因素，我們確實預計銷售額將增長 2% 至 4%。這一銷售增長還受到 AllianceRx 2 個百分點的逆風的影響，該逆風在第二季度基本結束。因此，如果您剔除 AllianceRx 和 COVID-19 的影響，我們預計固定貨幣銷售額將上升中個位數。

Adjusted EPS is projected at $4.45 to $4.65, a constant currency decline of 6% to 10%. Excluding the COVID-19 and ForEx headwinds, adjusted EPS growth is around 8% to 10%.

調整後的每股收益預計為 4.45 美元至 4.65 美元，貨幣匯率不變下降 6% 至 10%。排除 COVID-19 和 ForEx 的不利因素，調整後的每股收益增長約為 8% 至 10%。

Let me now walk you through the assumptions and guidance for each of our reporting segments, starting with U.S. Retail Pharmacy. Sales are projected to decline low single digit. Our lower sales contribution from vaccinations and testing will reduce the growth by 2-percentage points, whereas the low-margin AllianceRx business also has an adverse impact of 2-percentage points.

現在讓我向您介紹我們每個報告部門的假設和指導，從美國零售藥房開始。預計銷售額將下降低個位數。我們來自疫苗和檢測的較低銷售貢獻將使增長減少 2 個百分點，而低利潤的 AllianceRx 業務也有 2 個百分點的不利影響。

In summary, if you strip out these factors, we expect low single-digit sales growth. We are projecting 16 million vaccinations in 2023 compared to $35 million in both of the previous years. The $16 million estimate assumes only 1 booster this year and that around 40% of the population chooses to get one. AOI is projected at $4.5 billion to $4.6 billion, including an 18-percentage point headwind from the lower COVID-19 contribution. Excluding this impact, core AOI growth is 10% to 11%.

綜上所述，如果剔除這些因素，我們預計銷售額將出現低個位數增長。我們預計 2023 年將進行 1600 萬次疫苗接種，而前兩年為 3500 萬美元。 1600 萬美元的估計假設今年只有 1 個助推器，並且大約 40% 的人口選擇獲得一個。 AOI 預計為 45 億至 46 億美元，其中包括來自 COVID-19 貢獻較低的 18 個百分點的逆風。排除這種影響，核心 AOI 增長率為 10% 至 11%。

Let's walk through some of the key growth drivers. First, we anticipate script volume recovery as we move through the year. Focused labor investments are already leading to positive net staffing trends, and over the coming months, we'll allow more stores to return to normal operating hours. We expect the ongoing rollout of microfulfillment centers to continue to drive efficiencies in the pharmacy, easing staffing challenges.

讓我們來看看一些關鍵的增長動力。首先，我們預計隨著這一年的發展，劇本量會恢復。集中的勞動力投資已經帶來了積極的淨人員配置趨勢，在接下來的幾個月中，我們將允許更多商店恢復正常營業時間。我們預計微配送中心的持續推出將繼續提高藥房的效率，緩解人員配備方面的挑戰。

Additionally, pharmacy will be boosted by increased contributions from Pharmacy Services and patient acquisition initiatives. We also have good visibility to reimbursement net of procurement savings. Second, we expect continued momentum from the retail business, driven by our digital and omnichannel offerings, the enhancements we have made to our myWalgreens loyalty program and through innovation and growth in own brands. We are also seeing increasing contribution from alternative profit streams, including financial services and media. Finally, actions to mitigate shrink are well underway, and we are already seeing improved shrink rates.

此外，藥學服務和患者獲取計劃的貢獻增加將推動藥學發展。我們還可以很好地了解扣除採購節省後的報銷情況。其次，我們預計零售業務將繼續保持增長勢頭，這得益於我們的數字和全渠道產品、我們對 myWalgreens 忠誠度計劃的改進以及通過自有品牌的創新和增長。我們還看到金融服務和媒體等其他利潤來源的貢獻越來越大。最後，緩解收縮的行動正在順利進行，我們已經看到收縮率有所提高。

Overall, we expect gross profit to be broadly flat but up around 5% to 6%, excluding the COVID headwind. SG&A is expected to increase by around 1% to 2%, reflecting increased investments in team members and technology, offset by continued strong results from the transformational cost management program.

總體而言，我們預計毛利潤將大致持平，但將增長約 5% 至 6%，不包括 COVID 逆風。 SG&A 預計將增長約 1% 至 2%，這反映了對團隊成員和技術的投資增加，但被轉型成本管理計劃的持續強勁成果所抵消。

Turning next to the International segment. International had a very strong year in fiscal '22, and we expect continued robust growth in 2023. However, the strong dollar will negatively impact reported results and represent a headwind to sales and adjusted operating income of around 11% to 12%. Sales are projected to grow 5% to 7% on a constant currency basis with all markets growing. Specifically, we expect the U.K. to grow 6% and Germany will grow 4%.

轉到國際段旁邊。國際在 22 財年的表現非常強勁，我們預計 2023 年將繼續強勁增長。但是，強勢美元將對報告的業績產生負面影響，並對銷售和調整後的營業收入造成約 11% 至 12% 的不利影響。隨著所有市場的增長，銷售額預計將在固定貨幣基礎上增長 5% 至 7%。具體來說，我們預計英國將增長 6%，德國將增長 4%。

We expect adjusted operating income of $830 million to $870 million with strong constant currency growth of 26% to 32%. This follows on from 65% growth in 2022. Sales growth, strong cost management discipline and integration-related benefits in Germany are the key drivers.

我們預計調整後的營業收入為 8.3 億美元至 8.7 億美元，固定匯率強勁增長 26% 至 32%。這是繼 2022 年 65% 的增長之後。德國的銷售增長、強大的成本管理紀律和與整合相關的優勢是關鍵驅動因素。

Now let's turn to U.S. Healthcare. We are very encouraged by our progress as we build out our next growth engine. We expect sales of around $5 billion, including a full year of contribution from prior acquisitions and pro forma sales growth of 45% to 55%.

現在讓我們轉向美國醫療保健。隨著我們建立下一個增長引擎，我們對我們的進步感到非常鼓舞。我們預計銷售額約為 50 億美元，包括先前收購的全年貢獻和 45% 至 55% 的備考銷售額增長。

We are introducing an adjusted EBITDA metric for the U.S. Healthcare segment. And for fiscal '23, we expect an adjusted EBITDA loss of $220 million to $240 million. This is an improvement of $70 million to $90 million versus fiscal '22. We have moved past the fiscal '22 peak investment period, and the team is operating with agility and efficiency. And we have clear line of sight to positive adjusted EBITDA in fiscal '24.

我們正在為美國醫療保健部門引入調整後的 EBITDA 指標。對於 23 財年，我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 虧損為 2.2 億美元至 2.4 億美元。與 22 財年相比，這增加了 7000 萬美元至 9000 萬美元。我們已經度過了 22 財年的投資高峰期，團隊正在以敏捷和高效的方式運作。我們對 24 財年調整後的 EBITDA 有明確的看法。

Let's now take a deeper look at the U.S. healthcare projections. The U.S. healthcare segment is scaling to $5 billion in sales, and pro forma sales growth of 45% to 55% reflects strong growth across all of our healthcare businesses. VillageMD sales are projected at $2.8 billion to $3 billion, growing 50% to 60% with the performance driven by growth in value-based patients at existing clinics and continued expansion of their clinic footprint.

現在讓我們更深入地了解美國的醫療保健預測。美國醫療保健部門的銷售額正在擴大到 50 億美元，預計銷售額增長 45% 至 55% 反映了我們所有醫療保健業務的強勁增長。 VillageMD 的銷售額預計在 28 億至 30 億美元之間，增長 50% 至 60%，這得益於現有診所基於價值的患者的增長以及其診所足蹟的持續擴大。

We anticipate pro forma growth of 20% to 30% at CareCentrix, reaching sales of over $1.4 billion in fiscal '23. This performance reflects growth across existing and new payer and provider customers and upsell of innovative new home services. Shields is expected to drive pro forma sales growth of 30% to 40% through new health system partners and an expanding value proposition at existing customers. Given the relatively early stage of development, we expect the Walgreens Health organic business to deliver a modest sales contribution of $120 million to $150 million.

我們預計 CareCentrix 的備考增長將達到 20% 至 30%，在 23 財年達到超過 14 億美元的銷售額。這一業績反映了現有和新的付款人和提供商客戶的增長以及創新的新家庭服務的追加銷售。 Shields 預計將通過新的衛生系統合作夥伴和擴大現有客戶的價值主張，推動預計銷售額增長 30% 至 40%。鑑於相對較早的發展階段，我們預計 Walgreens Health 有機業務將提供 1.2 億至 1.5 億美元的適度銷售貢獻。

Let me now walk you through some of the key corporate assumptions. Our tax rate is expected to be around 16% in fiscal '23, roughly 50 basis points higher than prior year. However, we do anticipate an increase to around 20% in fiscal '24 largely consistent with our previous expectations. This step-up will be driven by higher tax rates in the U.K. and Switzerland and a greater percentage of income from U.S.-based businesses.

現在讓我向您介紹一些關鍵的公司假設。我們的稅率預計在 23 財年約為 16%，比上年高出約 50 個基點。但是，我們確實預計 24 財年將增長到 20% 左右，這與我們之前的預期基本一致。這一進步將受到英國和瑞士更高的稅率以及更大比例的美國企業收入的推動。

Interest expense is expected to increase by $100 million due largely to higher interest rates. Our fiscal '23 guidance assumes only anti-dilutive share repurchase activity as our near-term capital allocation priorities will be primarily focused on growth investments and debt paydown. However, beyond '23, we do expect to have flexibility for a sizable new program. Please note that our fiscal '23 guidance does not assume any acquisitions or divestitures. And finally, corporate costs will decline slightly as we tightly manage central costs.

由於利率上升，預計利息支出將增加 1 億美元。我們的 23 財年指導僅假設反稀釋性股票回購活動，因為我們近期的資本配置優先事項將主要集中在增長投資和債務償還上。但是，在 23 年之後，我們確實希望為一個相當大的新項目提供靈活性。請注意，我們的 '23 財年指南不假設任何收購或資產剝離。最後，隨著我們嚴格管理中心成本，企業成本將略有下降。

While we are not providing quarterly EPS guidance, we see a more balanced cadence between the first and second half compared to current consensus, which appears more first half weighted. In the first half, we will be lapping strong COVID-19 execution and record retail comps. The second half of the year will reflect the pace and timing of script volume recovery and reduced U.S. healthcare losses as the segment scales up.

雖然我們沒有提供季度每股收益指引，但與目前的共識相比，我們認為上半年和下半年之間的節奏更加平衡，後者似乎更加重視上半年。上半年，我們將進行強大的 COVID-19 執行並創紀錄的零售業績。今年下半年將反映劇本量恢復的步伐和時機，並隨著該細分市場的擴大而減少美國醫療保健損失。

Let me now turn to our long-term outlook. Looking beyond '23, we are reconfirming our long-term growth algorithm with mid- to high single-digit adjusted EPS growth in '24, building to low teens growth in 2025. Additionally, I would highlight that 2024 includes a more modest headwind from COVID-19 and the impact of a higher tax rate. Our transformation to a healthcare company will drive accelerated earnings growth as the faster growth and higher-margin U.S. healthcare business reaches scale.

現在讓我談談我們的長期展望。展望 23 年之後，我們正在重新確認我們的長期增長算法，調整後的每股收益在 24 年達到中高個位數增長，並在 2025 年實現低增長。此外，我要強調的是，2024 年包括來自COVID-19 和更高稅率的影響。隨著更快增長和更高利潤率的美國醫療保健業務達到規模，我們向醫療保健公司的轉型將推動盈利加速增長。

We expect U.S. healthcare to contribute over half of the annual adjusted EPS growth over the long term while we continue to assume moderate growth from the core business and increased returns from capital deployment as we exit '23 with improved credit metrics.

我們預計，從長期來看，美國醫療保健將貢獻超過一半的年度調整後每股收益增長，同時我們繼續假設核心業務的適度增長和資本部署的回報增加，因為我們退出 23 年並改善了信用指標。

Looking now at our capital allocation priorities. First, we will continue to prioritize organic investment in our resilient core business, and this will drive consistent returns and fast payback. Second, we will prioritize M&A that advances our healthcare ambitions, evaluating all opportunities through a rigorous strategic and financial lens. We intend to further simplify our portfolio to unlock value, and this provides significant flexibility as we execute on our transformation. Third, balance sheet strength is a key focus area for us. We remain committed to maintaining our investment-grade rating. Finally, we will return excess capital to shareholders, including a growing dividend. Beyond fiscal '23, we have potential capacity to resume sizable share repurchases.

現在看看我們的資本配置優先事項。首先，我們將繼續優先考慮對我們有彈性的核心業務的有機投資，這將推動持續的回報和快速的回報。其次，我們將優先考慮推進我們醫療保健雄心的併購，通過嚴格的戰略和財務視角評估所有機會。我們打算進一步簡化我們的投資組合以釋放價值，這為我們執行轉型提供了極大的靈活性。第三，資產負債表實力是我們關注的重點領域。我們仍然致力於維持我們的投資級評級。最後，我們將向股東返還多餘的資本，包括不斷增長的股息。在 23 財年之後，我們有恢復大規模股票回購的潛力。

Given the rising importance of U.S. healthcare, I would like to provide increased clarity on the segment goals over the next 3 years. With our solid execution to date and greater visibility ahead, we are increasing our fiscal '25 sales goal from $9 billion to $10 billion previously to $11 billion to $12 billion and representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 50% on a pro forma basis.

鑑於美國醫療保健的重要性日益提高，我想更明確地說明未來 3 年的細分目標。憑藉迄今為止我們穩健的執行力和更大的知名度，我們將 25 財年的銷售目標從之前的 90 億美元提高到 100 億美元，提高到 110 億美元到 120 億美元，並且在備考基礎上的複合年增長率約為 50%。

VillageMD is the largest contributor with growth achieved as existing clinics mature and realize more attractive economics and through ongoing expansion of VillageMD's clinic footprint. We expect continued strong sales growth at Shields, benefiting from rapid growth in the broader specialty pharmacy market and their unique focus on health system enablement.

VillageMD 是最大的貢獻者，隨著現有診所的成熟和實現更具吸引力的經濟性以及通過 VillageMD 的診所足蹟的不斷擴大，實現了增長。我們預計 Shields 將繼續強勁的銷售增長，這得益於更廣泛的專業藥房市場的快速增長以及他們對衛生系統支持的獨特關注。

CareCentrix sales will be driven by increased demand to better manage the needs of patients with complex or chronic conditions as they transition out of the hospital and into other post-acute settings including the home. Finally, we expect the Walgreens Health organic business to scale rapidly as we add new payer and provider partners and increasingly move to value-based and delegated risk arrangements. We expect the Walgreens Health organic business to contribute over $1 billion in sales by 2025.

CareCentrix 的銷售將受到需求增加的推動，以更好地管理患有復雜或慢性疾病的患者在他們離開醫院並進入包括家庭在內的其他急性後環境時的需求。最後，我們預計 Walgreens Health 有機業務將迅速擴大，因為我們增加了新的付款人和供應商合作夥伴，並越來越多地轉向基於價值和委派風險的安排。我們預計 Walgreens Health 有機業務到 2025 年將貢獻超過 10 億美元的銷售額。

Moving now to our EBITDA projections for U.S. Healthcare. We have a clear path to profitability by fiscal year 2024, building to a target of mid-teens adjusted EBITDA margin. We are projecting adjusted EBITDA of $125 million to $225 million in '24 rising to $500 million to $700 million in 2025. We are confident in this trajectory with several factors expected to drive significant profit growth. Achieving scale across the portfolio is critical as it enhances our ability to cover central overheads and platform investments, including technology. As you have seen earlier, sales will scale from $5 billion in fiscal '23 to $7 billion to $8 billion in '24 and $11 billion to $12 billion by 2025.

現在轉到我們對美國醫療保健的 EBITDA 預測。到 2024 財年，我們有一條清晰的盈利之路，實現了調整後 EBITDA 利潤率的目標。我們預計 24 年調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.25 億美元至 2.25 億美元，到 2025 年將增至 5 億美元至 7 億美元。我們對這一軌跡充滿信心，預計有幾個因素將推動利潤顯著增長。實現整個投資組合的規模至關重要，因為它增強了我們覆蓋中央管理費用和平台投資（包括技術）的能力。如您之前所見，到 2025 年，銷售額將從 23 財年的 50 億美元增長到 24 財年的 70 億美元到 80 億美元，再到 110 億美元到 120 億美元。

Our maturing VillageMD clinic profile is a significant tailwind as a greater percentage of clinics reach positive contribution margin. As a reminder, this typically occurs in year 3 on a 7-year glide path to very attractive at scale economics. Within the Walgreens Health organic business, we continue to have productive discussions with existing and prospective payer partners around a shift to risk arrangements. And our margin-accretive Shields business is projected to continue to grow strongly. On top of all this, the U.S. healthcare team has identified sizable synergy opportunities across our various healthcare assets. and they are operating with speed and agility and driving operating efficiencies on a clear path to profitability.

我們成熟的 VillageMD 診所概況是一個重要的順風，因為更大比例的診所達到了正的邊際貢獻。提醒一下，這通常發生在第 3 年，在 7 年的滑行路徑上非常具有吸引力的規模經濟。在 Walgreens Health 有機業務中，我們繼續與現有和潛在的支付合作夥伴圍繞風險安排的轉變進行富有成效的討論。我們的利潤增長盾牌業務預計將繼續強勁增長。最重要的是，美國醫療保健團隊已經在我們的各種醫療保健資產中發現了可觀的協同機會。他們正在以快速和敏捷的方式運營，並在一條清晰的盈利道路上提高運營效率。

Let me now wrap up the guidance section. I would like to leave you with 3 key takeaways as to why we are excited about the near-term and long-term outlook for WBA. First, we expect to drive positive core business momentum in fiscal '23 as we lap strong COVID-19 execution in 2022.

現在讓我結束指導部分。關於我們為什麼對 WBA 的近期和長期前景感到興奮，我想給您留下 3 個關鍵要點。首先，隨著我們在 2022 年強勁的 COVID-19 執行，我們預計將在 23 財年推動積極的核心業務勢頭。

The U.S. healthcare segment is rapidly approaching positive adjusted EBITDA. The business continues to scale, and we have raised our 2025 sales outlook to $11 billion to $12 billion, representing a compound annual growth rate of roughly 50%. Finally, we remain confident in our long-term growth algorithm, and we are reconfirming our goal of low teens EPS growth. We are committed to our vision and strategy, and we have and will take action to simplify the business and unlock shareholder value. With that, let me now pass it back to Roz.

美國醫療保健部門正迅速接近調整後的 EBITDA 正數。業務繼續擴大，我們已將 2025 年的銷售前景提高到 110 億至 120 億美元，複合年增長率約為 50%。最後，我們對我們的長期增長算法仍然充滿信心，我們正在重新確認我們的低青少年每股收益增長的目標。我們致力於實現我們的願景和戰略，我們已經並將採取行動簡化業務並釋放股東價值。有了這個，現在讓我把它傳回給羅茲。

Thank you, James. Now we're going to turn the page and offer more insights into our U.S. Healthcare segment. As I mentioned earlier, we're very happy to have John Driscoll, joining us as our President of U.S. Healthcare. John is an outstanding entrepreneur, who has partnered closely with us for some time now in his role as CEO of CareCentrix. He's an incredibly knowledgeable thought leader in healthcare and has become a confidante and a friend as we work side-by-side during our 3-year planning process. I am certain he will be able to hit the ground running overseeing this vitally important part of our business and building on our strong momentum. John, welcome once again, and now I'll turn it over to you.

謝謝你，詹姆斯。現在，我們將翻開新的一頁，為我們的美國醫療保健部門提供更多見解。正如我之前提到的，我們很高興 John Driscoll 加入我們擔任美國醫療保健總裁。 John 是一位傑出的企業家，在擔任 CareCentrix 首席執行官期間，他與我們密切合作了一段時間。他是醫療保健領域知識淵博的思想領袖，在我們 3 年的規劃過程中並肩工作時，他已成為我們的知己和朋友。我確信他將能夠開始監督我們業務的這一至關重要的部分，並在我們強勁勢頭的基礎上再接再厲。約翰，再次歡迎，現在我把它交給你。

Thank you, Roz. I have spent my career leading initiatives to reimagine and reinvent healthcare solutions that improve outcomes, lower costs and meet patients where they are. I'm delighted to join you today as the President of U.S. Healthcare. I believe that Walgreens is uniquely positioned with its pharmacy backbone as well as the quality of the assets and teams that we have invested in to start the journey at scale to help health plans and patients' lower costs and improve outcomes.

謝謝你，羅茲。在我的職業生涯中，我一直在領導計劃重新構想和重塑醫療保健解決方案，以改善結果、降低成本並滿足患者的需求。我很高興今天能以美國醫療保健總裁的身份加入您的行列。我相信 Walgreens 憑藉其藥房骨幹以及我們投資的資產和團隊的質量具有獨特的定位，以幫助健康計劃和患者降低成本並改善結果。

Building on our strong foundation in retail and specialty pharmacy, our U.S. Healthcare business expands WBA into significantly larger and faster growing profit pools. We're gaining access to $135 billion in addressable EBITDA profit pools versus $41 billion today. We focus on market segments that are natural extensions of the pharmacy that create value for our payer and provider partners and again meet consumers where they are. I'm thrilled that WBA has invested in foundational, best-in-class assets with VillageMD, Shields and CareCentrix that, together, create a platform for us to drive growth in some of the most attractive healthcare markets.

基於我們在零售和專業藥房的堅實基礎，我們的美國醫療保健業務將 WBA 擴展到更大且增長更快的利潤池。我們正在獲得 1350 億美元的可尋址 EBITDA 利潤池，而今天為 410 億美元。我們專注於作為藥房自然延伸的細分市場，為我們的付款人和供應商合作夥伴創造價值，並再次滿足消費者的需求。我很高興 WBA 與 VillageMD、Shields 和 CareCentrix 一起投資了基礎的、一流的資產，這些資產共同為我們創造了一個平台，以推動一些最具吸引力的醫療保健市場的增長。

Primary care physicians are at the center of managing health and wellness of patients. And we have a market-leading business in VillageMD. As more care moves into the home in the community, we have a natural platform to meet that demand from plans and patients with CareCentrix.

初級保健醫生是管理患者健康和保健的中心。我們在 VillageMD 擁有市場領先的業務。隨著越來越多的護理進入社區家庭，我們擁有一個自然平台來滿足 CareCentrix 計劃和患者的需求。

Specialty pharmacy is one of the fastest-growing segments in healthcare, and most specialty spend originates in health systems. We also have an industry-leading provider in health system, specialty pharma services in Shields. Simple convenient access to low-acuity healthcare services is also key to managing the health of our consumers. We're starting to deliver population health services through our health corners to close care gaps and help our payer and provider partners expand their reach.

專科藥房是醫療保健中增長最快的部分之一，大多數專科支出來自衛生系統。我們還在 Shields 擁有行業領先的衛生系統和專業製藥服務提供商。簡單方便地獲得低敏度醫療保健服務也是管理我們消費者健康的關鍵。我們開始通過我們的健康角落提供人口健康服務，以縮小護理差距並幫助我們的付款人和提供者合作夥伴擴大他們的範圍。

In the end, scale is critical, but healthcare is local. We're creating a nationally scaled health care business, which will leverage our entire portfolio to deliver better care at lower costs. And by focusing our portfolio on these higher-growth markets, we will accelerate the return on our investment and our path to profitability in U.S. healthcare.

最後，規模至關重要，但醫療保健是本地的。我們正在創建一個全國性的醫療保健業務，這將利用我們的整個產品組合以更低的成本提供更好的護理。通過將我們的投資組合集中在這些高增長的市場上，我們將加速我們的投資回報和我們在美國醫療保健領域的盈利之路。

Today, most patients and their caregivers are overwhelmed as they try to manage across different health conditions, providers, appointments, bills and medications. They struggle with getting basic access to care and experience a lack of coordination across their health needs. Our consumer-centric tech-enabled model will provide care across the full continuum, bringing together products and services across our portfolio.

如今，大多數患者及其護理人員在嘗試管理不同的健康狀況、提供者、預約、賬單和藥物時都不知所措。他們難以獲得基本的護理服務，並且在他們的健康需求方面缺乏協調。我們以消費者為中心的技術支持模式將提供全方位的護理，將我們產品組合中的產品和服務整合在一起。

We see significant opportunities for synergies, allowing us to pursue value-based care and risk arrangements, which will demonstrate the value of an integrated approach. Our focus is on expanding our risk business, supporting integrated care, expanding our pharmacy value proposition and driving operational efficiency.

我們看到了協同效應的重大機會，使我們能夠追求基於價值的護理和風險安排，這將展示綜合方法的價值。我們的重點是擴大我們的風險業務、支持綜合護理、擴大我們的藥房價值主張和提高運營效率。

Over the past year, we've made strategic investments to rapidly expand the breadth and depth of our portfolio. Bringing together our current individual assets, which are increasingly working together, our U.S. Healthcare segment now covers over 26 million lives cared for through a network of over 12,000 providers in communities across all 50 states.

在過去的一年裡，我們進行了戰略投資，以迅速擴大我們投資組合的廣度和深度。將我們目前越來越多地協同工作的個人資產整合在一起，我們的美國醫療保健部門現在通過覆蓋所有 50 個州的社區的 12,000 多家供應商網絡覆蓋了超過 2600 萬人的生命。

While the Retail Pharmacy is not part of our U.S. Healthcare segment, it serves as the bedrock of our healthcare portfolio. We have deep community ties, and demand for healthcare services in our stores has never been higher. And it's not just consumers looking to Walgreens for help with healthcare. Federal, state and local jurisdictions are increasingly looking to partner with us because we are close to patients, and they know they can count on us to deliver high-quality services that are absolutely critical.

雖然零售藥房不屬於我們的美國醫療保健部門，但它是我們醫療保健產品組合的基石。我們與社區有著深厚的聯繫，我們商店對醫療保健服務的需求從未如此高漲。向沃爾格林尋求醫療保健幫助的不僅僅是消費者。聯邦、州和地方司法管轄區越來越多地尋求與我們合作，因為我們與患者關係密切，他們知道他們可以指望我們提供絕對關鍵的高質量服務。

Our pharmacy serves 96 million patients through a team of 90,000 care providers. We administered 48 million total vaccines in fiscal year '22. And importantly, almost half of our pharmacies are in high need underserved areas, where we can drive health and vaccine equity.

我們的藥房通過由 90,000 名護理人員組成的團隊為 9600 萬患者提供服務。在 22 財年，我們總共接種了 4800 萬支疫苗。重要的是，我們幾乎一半的藥房都處於高需求服務不足的地區，我們可以在這些地區推動健康和疫苗公平。

Our front-end business is increasingly relevant to health and wellness as we've seen with the sale of COVID OTC tests as well as our trusted selection of OTC medications. Both the retail and pharmacy businesses are serving the consumer across channels. We drove 117 million visits to the Walgreens app last year.

正如我們在銷售 COVID OTC 測試以及我們值得信賴的 OTC 藥物選擇中所看到的那樣，我們的前端業務與健康和保健越來越相關。零售和藥房業務都在跨渠道為消費者服務。去年，我們為 Walgreens 應用程序帶來了 1.17 億次訪問。

Lastly, our stores are anchor access points to serve consumers through our Walgreens Health business, which now covers more than 2.3 million lives through 3 health plan partners. Health advisers in our stores conducted over 200,000 interactions with consumers to tend to their healthcare needs. Being lost in the wilderness of healthcare is a big challenge for patients and families.

最後，我們的商店是通過我們的 Walgreens Health 業務為消費者提供服務的錨定接入點，該業務現在通過 3 個健康計劃合作夥伴覆蓋超過 230 萬人的生活。我們商店的健康顧問與消費者進行了超過 200,000 次互動，以滿足他們的醫療保健需求。迷失在醫療保健的荒野中對患者和家庭來說是一個巨大的挑戰。

Walgreens Health is perfectly positioned to help consumers navigate what can be a bewildering experience in U.S. healthcare.

Walgreens Health 完全有能力幫助消費者駕馭美國醫療保健領域可能令人眼花繚亂的體驗。

Now let's turn to VillageMD. Village is a leading asset in the field of risk-taking primary care. Village is uniquely positioned as one of the largest primary care providers in the U.S. We can now leverage the combined power of the Walgreens stores and our trusted brand with primary care. VillageMD providers touched the lives of over 1.6 million patients, covering over 430,000 value-based patients through over 340 clinics in 22 markets. 152 clinics are co-located with Walgreens stores, half of which are in underserved areas.

現在讓我們轉向 VillageMD。 Village是冒險初級保健領域的領先資產。 Village 的獨特定位是美國最大的初級保健提供者之一。我們現在可以利用 Walgreens 商店和我們值得信賴的品牌與初級保健的綜合實力。 VillageMD 提供者通過 22 個市場的 340 多家診所觸及超過 160 萬患者的生活，覆蓋超過 430,000 名基於價值的患者。 152 家診所與 Walgreens 商店位於同一地點，其中一半位於服務不足的地區。

VillageMD has achieved a Medicare Stars rating of 4.0 to 5.0 in their mature markets. It generates material Medicare Advantage cost savings of $2,400 per patient per year. We are also very proud to say that we serve patients across all socioeconomic statuses and are truly payer-agnostic. VillageMD is one of the leaders in the move to value-based care. The move to value is increasing and inevitable, and we expect very attractive growth ahead.

VillageMD 在其成熟市場中獲得了 4.0 至 5.0 的 Medicare Stars 評級。它每年為每位患者節省 2,400 美元的重大 Medicare Advantage 成本。我們也非常自豪地說，我們為所有社會經濟地位的患者提供服務，並且真正與付款人無關。 VillageMD 是轉向基於價值的護理的領導者之一。價值轉移正在增加且不可避免，我們預計未來的增長將非常有吸引力。

There are a number of companies directly or indirectly competing in the value-based primary care marketplace. But VillageMD is differentiated by a faster path to favorable economics driven by our acceptance of all patient populations and all payer types. We have a unique ability to address all of the ecosystem's pain points at scale.

在基於價值的初級保健市場中，有許多公司直接或間接競爭。但是，VillageMD 的與眾不同之處在於，我們接受所有患者群體和所有付款人類型，從而更快地獲得有利的經濟效益。我們有獨特的能力來大規模解決生態系統的所有痛點。

VillageMD's payer-agnostic model has enabled us to secure value-based contracts with every major national health plan as well as many of the local and regional health plans in the markets we serve.

VillageMD 的付款人不可知模型使我們能夠與每個主要的國家健康計劃以及我們服務的市場中的許多地方和區域健康計劃簽訂基於價值的合同。

Our integrated primary care and pharmacy model has driven strong results, especially in combating chronic disease in the Medicare population. 23% of VillageMD's Medicare patients are on at least 10 medications, making pharmacists critical members of the care teams. And moving forward, we see opportunity for commercial and care delivery synergies with CareCentrix.

我們的綜合初級保健和藥房模式取得了強勁的成果，特別是在對抗醫療保險人群中的慢性病方面。 VillageMD 的 Medicare 患者中有 23% 使用至少 10 種藥物，這使得藥劑師成為護理團隊的重要成員。展望未來，我們看到了與 CareCentrix 實現商業和護理交付協同作用的機會。

Now let me talk about Shields Health Solutions. Shields is not a traditional specialty pharmacy but instead represents an evolution to the model. Shields participates in the specialty pharmacy space by building and accelerating hospital-owned specialty pharmacy programs that are integrated with care providers at the point of care. The idea is simple. 75% of specialty prescriptions in the U.S. originate in a health system, yet those hospitals retain only 10% of those prescriptions. Shields' mission is to help the health system close that gap by driving a 5 to 7x higher capture rate of specialty prescriptions for our partners.

現在讓我談談希爾茲健康解決方案。 Shields 不是傳統的專業藥房，而是代表了該模式的演變。 Shields 通過建立和加速醫院擁有的專業藥房項目參與專業藥房領域，這些項目在護理點與護理提供者相結合。這個想法很簡單。美國 75% 的專業處方源自衛生系統，但這些醫院僅保留 10% 的處方。 Shields 的使命是通過為我們的合作夥伴推動 5 到 7 倍的專業處方捕獲率來幫助衛生系統縮小這一差距。

Today, our network of more than 75 health system partners represents more than 1,000 hospitals nationwide. Our partners include well-known health systems such as UMass Memorial, New York Presbyterian, Ohio State University and UC Health.

今天，我們由超過 75 個衛生系統合作夥伴組成的網絡代表著全國 1,000 多家醫院。我們的合作夥伴包括著名的衛生系統，例如 UMass Memorial、New York Presbyterian、Ohio State University 和 UC Health。

Our health system enablement model has 3 core components: first, an integrated clinical model between the pharmacy team and the patient care team; second, centralized infrastructure to remove administrative burdens; and third, proprietary software for end-to-end workflow and operations.

我們的衛生系統支持模型有 3 個核心組成部分：首先，藥房團隊和患者護理團隊之間的集成臨床模型；第二，集中基礎設施以減輕行政負擔；第三，用於端到端工作流程和操作的專有軟件。

Shields benefits the health system, the patient and Walgreens. We expect this business will continue to yield strong top line growth at accretive margins, while also providing a balanced approach to the traditional contract pharmacy model. The Shields' high-touch model is highly effective, resulting in nearly a 40% reduction in readmission rates. Shields creates strong value for every participant in the ecosystem and is well ahead of key market averages. For patients, the need to get on therapy as soon as possible is critical. We get them on therapy in 2 days versus a market average of 21.

Shields 有益於衛生系統、患者和 Walgreens。我們預計該業務將繼續以增值利潤率產生強勁的收入增長，同時也為傳統的合同藥房模式提供平衡的方法。 Shields 的高接觸模型非常有效，可將再入院率降低近 40%。 Shields 為生態系統中的每個參與者創造了強大的價值，並且遠遠領先於主要市場平均水平。對於患者來說，盡快接受治療至關重要。我們讓他們在 2 天內接受治療，而市場平均水平為 21 天。

Affordability is also critical for patients. The Shields team can help achieve an average co-pay of $8 versus an industry average of more than $100.

負擔能力對患者來說也很重要。 Shields 團隊可以幫助實現 8 美元的平均共付額，而行業平均水平超過 100 美元。

As I mentioned before, Shields drives a superior specialty capture rate at up to 70% versus the market average of under 10%. Shields ultimately reduces the total cost of care by about 13% compared to market averages.

正如我之前提到的，Shields 的專業捕獲率高達 70%，而市場平均水平不到 10%。與市場平均水平相比，Shields 最終將總護理成本降低了約 13%。

Finally, let me turn to CareCentrix as the only nonpayer owned post-acute and home services platform. CareCentrix will help us extend Walgreens' pharmacy network and services to the home. CareCentrix provides national scale, care coordination and actuarial capabilities along with a deep focus on the customer experience. We cover 19 million lives across the network of 7,500 home supplier locations. In 2022, we will coordinate nearly 6 million home-based services. CareCentrix has externally validated results showing the total cost of care reductions of up to 20% delivered with member satisfaction results routinely exceeding 90%, and we are already working to integrate CareCentrix across our business, including VillageMD and Shields.

最後，讓我求助於 CareCentrix，它是唯一一家非付款人擁有的急性後和家庭服務平台。 CareCentrix 將幫助我們將 Walgreens 的藥房網絡和服務擴展到家庭。 CareCentrix 提供全國范圍的護理協調和精算能力，同時高度關注客戶體驗。我們在 7,500 個家庭供應商地點的網絡中覆蓋 1900 萬人的生活。 2022年，我們將協調近600萬家居家服務。 CareCentrix 的外部驗證結果顯示，護理總成本降低高達 20%，會員滿意度通常超過 90%，我們已經在努力將 CareCentrix 整合到我們的業務中，包括 VillageMD 和 Shields。

For example, together with VillageMD, after a hospital discharge, CareCentrix will be able to immediately refer a member to a primary care physician when needed and even schedule an appointment for follow-up care. Analysis has shown that this rapid action can reduce hospital readmission rates by 20%. Collaboration with Walgreens pharmacists can increase the number of successful medication reconciliations after a hospital discharge by 15% to 20%. When done right, these not only lower care costs but also improve a health plan's stars rating to drive sales growth, creating a very attractive value proposition.

例如，與 VillageMD 一起，在出院後，CareCentrix 將能夠在需要時立即將成員轉介給初級保健醫生，甚至安排後續護理的預約。分析表明，這種快速行動可以將再入院率降低 20%。與 Walgreens 藥劑師合作可以將出院後成功的藥物對賬次數增加 15% 至 20%。如果做得好，這些不僅可以降低護理成本，還可以提高健康計劃的星級，從而推動銷售增長，創造一個非常有吸引力的價值主張。

Relative to the competition, CareCentrix is highly differentiated. Not only are we a payer agnostic provider of home and post-acute services, but our network-based model provides national reach today with an ability to easily scale. We have the most experience with over 25 years in managing home-based care as well as the broadest portfolio of home and post-acute services, including home health, durable medical equipment, home infusion, home-based palliative and hospice care and post-acute and readmissions management. This home-focused platform simplifies the coordination of home services for the members, health plans and hospitals.

相對於競爭對手，CareCentrix 是高度差異化的。我們不僅是家庭和急性後服務的付款人不可知論者，而且我們基於網絡的模型為當今的全國范圍提供了輕鬆擴展的能力。我們在管理家庭護理方面擁有超過 25 年的豐富經驗，以及最廣泛的家庭和急性後服務組合，包括家庭健康、耐用醫療設備、家庭輸液、家庭姑息治療和臨終關懷以及術後急性和再入院管理。這個以家庭為中心的平台簡化了會員、健康計劃和醫院的家庭服務協調。

Over time, the platform can also easily expand to include other types of home services. Not only does CareCentrix manage the broadest set of home services, but we also manage all lines of business, Medicare Advantage, Medicaid, commercial and marketplace Exchange.

隨著時間的推移，該平台還可以輕鬆擴展以包含其他類型的家庭服務。 CareCentrix 不僅管理最廣泛的家庭服務，而且還管理所有業務線、Medicare Advantage、Medicaid、商業和市場交換。

Let me close today by emphasizing my excitement to be joining WBA at this key moment of transformation for our company and for the U.S. healthcare system. WBA has the right assets, the right team and the right strategy. We are already providing care delivery across the healthcare continuum and driving consumer engagement through our platform. Thank you, and let me hand it back to Roz for closing remarks.

最後，讓我強調一下在我們公司和美國醫療保健系統轉型的關鍵時刻加入 WBA 的興奮之情。 WBA 擁有正確的資產、正確的團隊和正確的戰略。我們已經在整個醫療保健連續體中提供護理服務，並通過我們的平台推動消費者參與。謝謝你，讓我把它交還給 Roz 做閉幕詞。

Thank you, John, and thanks to everyone for joining us for today's extended call. Before we kick off Q&A, let me sum up what you've heard. Fiscal '22 was a year of broad-based outperformance against our expectations. We are well positioned to drive continued execution through our resilient core business and by scaling our winning assets. We see a clear path for U.S. healthcare to achieve profitability starting in fiscal year '24, and we're already raising long-term sales targets. At the same time, we are investing in talent and capabilities and rapidly simplifying the portfolio as part of our transformation to a healthcare company.

謝謝你，約翰，也感謝大家加入我們今天的延長電話會議。在我們開始問答之前，讓我總結一下您所聽到的內容。 '22 財年是超出我們預期的廣泛表現的一年。我們有能力通過我們有彈性的核心業務和擴大我們的獲勝資產來推動持續執行。從 24 財年開始，我們看到了美國醫療保健實現盈利的明確道路，並且我們已經在提高長期銷售目標。與此同時，我們正在投資人才和能力，並迅速簡化投資組合，作為我們向醫療保健公司轉型的一部分。

We have good visibility to tremendous growth with best-in-class assets that we have in place today. This builds my confidence that our strategic priorities are working to drive our long-term growth algorithm.

憑藉我們今天擁有的一流資產，我們對巨大的增長有很好的了解。這讓我相信我們的戰略重點正在努力推動我們的長期增長算法。

In closing, we are pleased with this year's performance. We are tackling the challenges that next year poses, and we have conviction in the development of our new U.S. Healthcare business and our future growth potential. Now I'd like to open the line for questions.

最後，我們對今年的表現感到滿意。我們正在應對明年帶來的挑戰，我們對新的美國醫療保健業務的發展和我們未來的增長潛力充滿信心。現在我想打開問題線。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Lisa Gill from JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Lisa Gill。

Thank you for all the details. And John, I have to personally say I'm very excited that you're back on the public side of the market. So let me start there. When we think about all the comments that you made around Walgreens Health, I just really want to understand a couple of things. One, when we think about the more than 2 million lives that you're talking about today, when I try to look back and I look at some of the other comments you made around at-risk lives at VillageMD, can you maybe just talk about how we think about those 2.3 million lives, how do you monetize those lives? Is this shifting towards value-based arrangements? And then secondly, I know James talked about 2025 and the increase in getting the profitability in that segment. How do we think about the longer-term profitability of Walgreens Health?

感謝您提供所有詳細信息。約翰，我個人不得不說，我很高興你回到了市場的公共方面。所以讓我從那裡開始。當我們想到您對 Walgreens Health 發表的所有評論時，我真的很想了解一些事情。第一，當我們想到你今天談論的超過 200 萬條生命時，當我試圖回過頭來看看你在 VillageMD 就面臨風險的生命發表的一些其他評論時，你能不能談談關於我們如何看待這 230 萬條生命，你如何將這些生命貨幣化？這是否正在轉向基於價值的安排？其次，我知道詹姆斯談到了 2025 年以及該領域盈利能力的增加。我們如何看待 Walgreens Health 的長期盈利能力？

Lisa, this is Roz. I'll start that off, and James and I and John might fill in a few little pieces here. You asked a question about value-based arrangements. So the assets that we have right now, I will talk about a little bit on the Village side, Village has a large amount of their current business that is in a value-based arrangement. And you'll see that even more of that will grow over time. That is our objective.

麗莎，這是羅茲。我會從這裡開始，詹姆斯、我和約翰可能會在這裡補充一些小片段。你問了一個關於基於價值的安排的問題。所以我們現在擁有的資產，我會在Village方面稍微談談，Village目前有大量的業務是基於價值的安排。你會看到隨著時間的推移，更多的會增長。這是我們的目標。

And then to think about how we tie our assets together, I want to just talk a little bit about the grounding of what we have in that relationship between the pharmacists and the primary care physician because that's the real key for us in terms of what we do inside our stores and taking that relationship that we have between our current customer and the patient that comes into a VillageMD and bring those 2 relationships together between the pharmacists and the primary care physician. When you think about value-based care, John, do you want to say a few words about that?

然後考慮我們如何將我們的資產聯繫在一起，我想談談我們在藥劑師和初級保健醫生之間的關係中的基礎，因為這對我們來說是真正的關鍵在我們的商店內進行，並利用我們當前的客戶和進入 VillageMD 的患者之間的關係，並將藥劑師和初級保健醫生之間的這兩種關係結合在一起。當您考慮基於價值的護理時，約翰，您想談談嗎？

I think -- and Lisa, thank you for those kind words. It's great to be on this side again. I'm really going to underscore the fact that I think this is an amazing platform. With regard to the contracted lives, we're starting with contracting with health plans that are really enthusiastic about partnering with Walgreens around closing care gaps and working on screenings and really integrating more into the health care system. Over time, you will see us work more closely with those plans on shifting to risk. It's a natural baseline, and we've obviously got some great assets with VillageMD and CareCentrix to accelerate that transformation over time. But right now for those 2 million lives, it's really initial contracting around leveraging the pharmacies to close care gaps and screenings.

我想——還有麗莎，謝謝你的客氣話。很高興再次站在這一邊。我真的要強調一個事實，即我認為這是一個了不起的平台。關於合同生活，我們從與健康計劃簽約開始，這些計劃非常熱衷於與 Walgreens 合作，圍繞縮小護理差距、進行篩查並真正將更多內容融入醫療保健系統。隨著時間的推移，您會看到我們與這些轉移風險的計劃更加緊密地合作。這是一個自然的基線，我們顯然擁有 VillageMD 和 CareCentrix 的一些重要資產，可以隨著時間的推移加速這種轉變。但現在對於這 200 萬條生命來說，它實際上是圍繞利用藥房來縮小護理差距和篩查的初步合同。

Yes. And Lisa, we -- you asked about the long-term margins. We've given a long-term target of mid-teens, and that's probably even a little bit on the conservative side. And as you've seen, we've started flipping the metric to EBITDA to emphasize that we've already passed the peak of heavy investments. And I think as you look out over the coming years, I think we will we have Shields which is immediately profitable, and we're not breaking out by unit, but it's at least $100 million profit in the fiscal '22. And that is growing like gangbusters. We've given you the revenue growth. And you can probably assume that the profit growth in that business will outpace the revenue growth as it scales.

是的。還有麗莎，我們 - 你問到長期利潤。我們給出了一個青少年的長期目標，這可能有點保守。正如你所看到的，我們已經開始將指標轉換為 EBITDA，以強調我們已經度過了大筆投資的高峰。而且我認為，當您展望未來幾年時，我認為我們將擁有立即盈利的 Shields，而且我們不會按單位突破，但在 22 財年至少有 1 億美元的利潤。而且這種情況正在像大砲一樣增長。我們已經為您提供了收入增長。你可能會假設，隨著業務規模的擴大，該業務的利潤增長將超過收入增長。

And CareCentrix is a new acquisition. I think you can make your own estimates. I think we've said in the past it's like mid- to high single-digit margins. And we've given you a revenue number. We've given you a growth number, so that's pretty easy. I think the one we -- we're probably struggling with a bit is VillageMD. We've been quite clear on this one, that's in an investment phase, and we actually accelerated the investments in 2022. So instead of 160 clinics in calendar '22, we've gone to 200. So we're actually doing the smart thing. We're doubling down. This is a scale business. The unique part of -- as John said about the model is, this is not an [Oak] Street. This is a model that breaks even in year 3. So opening clinics for us, yes, it will be painful in the first 2 years, but then the returns are outsized because we get a very rapid payback.

CareCentrix 是一項新的收購。我想你可以自己估計。我認為我們過去曾說過，這就像中高個位數的利潤率。我們給了你一個收入數字。我們給了你一個增長數字，所以這很容易。我認為我們——我們可能有點掙扎的是 VillageMD。我們已經很清楚這一點，那是在投資階段，我們實際上在 2022 年加速了投資。因此，我們在 22 年日曆上沒有 160 家診所，而是增加到 200 家。所以我們實際上是在做聰明的事事物。我們加倍下注。這是一項規模業務。正如約翰所說的模型的獨特部分是，這不是 [橡樹] 街。這是一個在第 3 年實現收支平衡的模式。因此，為我們開設診所，是的，前 2 年會很痛苦，但隨後回報是巨大的，因為我們得到了非常快速的回報。

So -- but realistically, if you plot out the number of clinics, it will be fiscal '25 before we're EBITDA breakeven. And the same goes for the organic business. And just to add on to what John said is there is a lot of excitement amongst the partners we have been discussing with. We do expect to take delegated risk in -- probably in the near term, so 6 to 12 months kind of time frame. So we're very excited by it. And we've called up the revenue guidance as -- and that is basically just coming from better visibility as we went through all the business reviews in the 3-year plan. And we're very excited by the signal that's sending and for strong operational plans behind each one of those.

所以——但實際上，如果你計算出診所的數量，那麼在我們實現 EBITDA 盈虧平衡之前，將是 25 財年。有機業務也是如此。補充一下約翰所說的是，我們一直在與之討論的合作夥伴中充滿了興奮。我們確實希望承擔委託風險——可能在短期內，因此是 6 到 12 個月的時間框架。所以我們對此感到非常興奮。我們將收入指導稱為 - 這基本上只是來自更好的可見性，因為我們在 3 年計劃中進行了所有業務審查。我們對所發出的信號以及每一項背後的強大運營計劃感到非常興奮。

Your next question comes from the line of Elizabeth Anderson from Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Elizabeth Anderson。

I had a couple of questions about sort of just like cash flow. In terms of the debt paydown, can you talk about like how much are you sort of thinking about sort of mandatory versus voluntary paydown over the next couple of years? And then on M&A, I think it was very helpful to hear, obviously, the Walgreens Health outlook. I just wanted to see if there were any other additional assets you felt like you needed. I think at sometimes you've talked about maybe a healthcare IT asset there, so I just wanted to understand how that fits in your current mix of thinking? And then any other one-off sort of cash flow items like opioids or anything that might change going forward.

我有幾個關於現金流的問題。就債務償還而言，您能否談談您在未來幾年內對強制償還與自願償還的看法有多少？然後在併購方面，我認為很明顯聽到沃爾格林健康前景非常有幫助。我只是想看看是否還有您認為需要的其他額外資產。我認為有時您可能會談到那裡的醫療保健 IT 資產，所以我只是想了解它如何適合您當前的思維組合？然後是任何其他一次性的現金流項目，如阿片類藥物或任何可能在未來發生變化的東西。

Thanks, Elizabeth, for that question. Let me start off by first saying that, first of all, we've moved past our most significant M&A period in FY '22. We're past our peak investment period at this point. So we're pleased with the assets that we have, but we remain committed to our prior conversation that probably our next asset will look something like a tech asset. But I will also mention, though, too, outside of that, we would seek something that is currently achieving EBITDA as we look forward in terms of where we would invest. But in terms of what we would do next is looking to really carefully tether these assets together, and it lends us to look in the technology space. James, do you want to go through the cash flow and debt paydown?

謝謝，伊麗莎白，這個問題。讓我首先說，首先，我們已經度過了 22 財年最重要的併購時期。目前，我們已經過了投資高峰期。因此，我們對我們擁有的資產感到滿意，但我們仍然致力於我們之前的對話，即我們的下一個資產可能看起來像技術資產。但我也會提到，除此之外，我們將尋求目前正在實現 EBITDA 的東西，因為我們期待投資的方向。但就我們接下來要做的事情而言，我們希望真正小心地將這些資產捆綁在一起，這讓我們可以關注技術領域。詹姆斯，你想通過現金流和債務償還嗎？

Yes. I think on the debt paydown. I think we've got exiting the year of $12 billion of debt. Well, we also have a lease liability of $24 billion. So I think you can do the calculation yourself. Our target is [3.75] debt to EBITDA for Moody's and 4x for S&P, and we're currently running above those levels, and we have taken commitments with the agencies to get them below these levels. So I'm not giving an absolute number.

是的。我認為是償還債務。我認為我們已經擺脫了 120 億美元的債務。好吧，我們還有 240 億美元的租賃負債。所以我認為你可以自己計算。我們的目標是穆迪對 EBITDA 的 3.75 倍債務和標準普爾的 4 倍債務，我們目前的運行水平高於這些水平，我們已與機構承諾將其降至這些水平以下。所以我沒有給出一個絕對數字。

What I would point out, though, is the tremendous flexibility we have in our portfolio, we have a lot of assets, and a fair portion of them are liquid. So it gets back to your M&A question. Should we need to do M&A more likely to be EBITDA accretive. And then secondly is we have a lot of firepower to do EBITDA because we have a lot of assets that are not necessarily very close to the core. So we feel like we're in a fairly good position. But your question is the right one. We will, in the short term, focus on internal and actually potentially some M&A but not very large. We will focus on investment in the business and debt paydown.

不過，我要指出的是，我們在投資組合中擁有巨大的靈活性，我們擁有大量資產，其中相當一部分是流動的。所以回到你的併購問題。我們是否需要進行併購更有可能增加 EBITDA。其次是我們有很多火力來做 EBITDA，因為我們有很多資產不一定非常接近核心。所以我們覺得我們處於一個相當好的位置。但你的問題是正確的。在短期內，我們將專注於內部併購，實際上可能會進行一些併購，但規模不會很大。我們將專注於業務投資和債務償還。

And then as we look forward beyond '23, we've put it in the materials, our cash flow generation improved substantially when we get into '23 and '24 as health care investments taper off and it turns profitable. At that stage, we probably have fairly significant capacity to return capital to shareholders. But a lot can happen between now and 2024.

然後，當我們展望 23 年以後，我們已經將其放入材料中，當我們進入 23 年和 24 年時，隨著醫療保健投資逐漸減少並開始盈利，我們的現金流產生顯著改善。在那個階段，我們可能有相當大的能力向股東返還資本。但是從現在到 2024 年之間可能會發生很多事情。

Your next question comes from the line of Steven Valiquette from Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Steven Valiquette。

Great. So in the U.S., you mentioned that the comp script growth ex immunizations was flat year-over-year in the fiscal fourth quarter. You mentioned they should start to recover in fiscal '23, and you talked about the labor investment starting to pay off. But I guess with that, I wasn't quite clear whether the labor investments are the key variable in your U.S. growth recovery in fiscal '23 or if other factors are more important. So I guess I was hoping to just get more color on the expected U.S. script growth recovery in fiscal '23.

偉大的。因此，在美國，您提到第四財季的非免疫接種方案的增長與去年同期持平。你提到他們應該在 23 財年開始復蘇，你談到勞動力投資開始得到回報。但我猜想，我不太清楚勞動力投資是否是 23 財年美國經濟增長復甦的關鍵變量，還是其他因素更重要。所以我想我希望在 23 財年對預期的美國劇本增長復甦有更多的了解。

Yes. We think we have -- I think I have almost take it up a level up on to the pharmacy business. We actually see pharmacy growing next year. So you take out the impact of COVID, and we're expecting a very strong performance across pharmacy.

是的。我們認為我們已經 - 我想我幾乎已經將它提升到了藥房業務的水平。我們實際上看到藥房明年會增長。因此，您消除了 COVID 的影響，我們預計整個藥房的表現將非常強勁。

And there's a couple of factors. So number one is scripts. So you asked the #1 question, and we expect script growth of about 5%, which is well above what we're currently doing. We expect an acceleration as we go through the year. And that directly answer your question. We expect 50% to come from either the labor investments, our fairly sizable marketing investments we're making on customer retention and regaining lost customers because, frankly, we lost customers during our overfocus on COVID, and now we've got to win them back. So the short answer is we're investing in people, and we're investing in marketing and we're investing in attracting and winning back the patients that we lost.

還有幾個因素。所以第一是腳本。所以你問了第一個問題，我們預計腳本增長率約為 5%，這遠高於我們目前所做的。我們預計這一年會加速。這直接回答了你的問題。我們預計 50% 來自勞動力投資，我們在客戶保留和重新獲得失去的客戶方面進行的相當大的營銷投資，因為坦率地說，我們在過度關注 COVID 期間失去了客戶，現在我們必須贏得他們背部。所以簡而言之，我們正在投資於人，我們正在投資於營銷，我們正在投資於吸引和贏回我們失去的患者。

But if you look at the bigger picture, so a 5% script growth that generates significant profit growth. And obviously, it is ahead of us. The other factor is reimbursement. This is quite an unusual year because we have 95% of the contracts closed. So we have extremely high visibility to the actually reimbursement number, so 95% closed. And this is -- some of our contracts are in the second year. So this is a step down year. So the reimbursement in 2024 is around 80% to 85% of the reimbursement -- sorry, in '23 is 80% to 85% of the reimbursement level in '22. So we're getting a favorable, call it, net margin compared to what a typical year would look like.

但如果你從大局來看，5% 的腳本增長會產生顯著的利潤增長。顯然，它就在我們前面。另一個因素是報銷。這是非常不尋常的一年，因為我們完成了 95% 的合同。所以我們對實際報銷數量有非常高的知名度，所以 95% 關閉了。這是 - 我們的一些合同是在第二年。所以這是一個降級的一年。因此，2024 年的報銷約為 80% 到 85% 的報銷——抱歉，23 年是 22 年報銷水平的 80% 到 85%。因此，與典型年份相比，我們獲得了有利的淨利潤率。

The third one is we have pharmacy services. So obviously, as we've gone through COVID, we've developed new capabilities. There's lots of states opening up the ability of pharmacists to do more activity. So our pharmacy services business is growing quite strongly. So there's 3 things: script growth, which is big investments to drive script. And two is it's an easier done norm reimbursement net of procurement here. And then the third one is a fast-growing pharmacy services business. So we have a fairly strong plan for the pharmacy business for next year.

第三個是我們有藥房服務。很明顯，當我們經歷 COVID 時，我們已經開發了新的能力。有很多州開放了藥劑師進行更多活動的能力。因此，我們的藥房服務業務增長非常強勁。所以有三件事：劇本增長，這是推動劇本的大筆投資。二是這裡的採購網絡更容易完成規範報銷。第三個是快速增長的藥房服務業務。所以我們對明年的藥房業務有一個相當強大的計劃。

Your next question comes from the line of Charles Rhyee from Cowen.

您的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Charles Rhyee。

Just wanted to follow up. As we think about the macro environment and we are potentially moving into sort of recessionary environment, can you talk about sort of what you guys are planning in your assumptions in the guidance, particularly for this next fiscal year and maybe beyond to kind of things to get ahead of a potential slowdown in the economy?

只是想跟進。當我們考慮宏觀環境並且我們可能會進入某種衰退環境時，您能否談談你們在指導中的假設中計劃的內容，特別是對於下一個財政年度以及可能超越的事情提前應對潛在的經濟放緩？

Yes. Maybe I'll just give you some of the impacts that are already assumed in the P&L. And we've essentially planned for a moderate recession, but there are significant impacts in the income statement. We've got about $0.08 or $0.10 of higher interest cost. We've got lower pension returns in the U.K. That's like $0.04. And the labor investments we've thought about are not necessarily directly a recession impact, but we have a very high level of inflation planned in the income statement. So I think the total inflation impact in the U.S. income statement is probably, I guess, $700 million, and we have a significant cost program in the U.S., the TCM program offsetting that, right? And then the other thing is that we do have -- still have some assumptions on supply chain and inflation.

是的。也許我會給你一些已經在損益表中假設的影響。我們基本上已經計劃了一場溫和的衰退，但損益表有重大影響。我們有大約 0.08 美元或 0.10 美元的更高利息成本。我們在英國的養老金回報率較低。這就像 0.04 美元。我們考慮的勞動力投資不一定會直接影響經濟衰退，但我們在損益表中計劃了非常高的通脹水平。所以我認為美國損益表中的總通貨膨脹影響可能是 7 億美元，我們在美國有一個重要的成本計劃，TCM 計劃抵消了這一點，對吧？然後另一件事是我們確實 - 仍然對供應鍊和通貨膨脹有一些假設。

I see that a little bit as of an opportunity. We see China becoming less difficult right now and shipments are coming out way faster. And I think there's a bit of a release in the system. The latest inflation numbers are not particularly encouraging, but we've planned the inflation side of the envelope quite in a detailed way. I think your real question is about how do you offset it. And maybe I'll flip to the retail side of the business, right?

我認為這是一個機會。我們看到中國現在變得不那麼困難了，出貨量也越來越快。而且我認為系統中有一些發布。最新的通脹數據並不特別令人鼓舞，但我們已經非常詳細地計劃了信封的通脹方面。我認為你真正的問題是如何抵消它。也許我會轉向零售業務，對吧？

So I think you have to look at track record as you look forward into our plans and the track record of the U.S. front of store business in '22 was we grew overall volume at -- sorry, comp revenue at 6%, of which about 3 points came from OTC test but still a strong 3% across the business for the year, and we increased margins at the same time. So we could walk and chew gum, right? So the margins went up. Despite all of the inflation, supply chain, the confusion around COVID and the stress on the stores, we still delivered this kind of performance.

因此，我認為您在展望我們的計劃時必須查看往績記錄，以及 22 年美國門店業務的往績記錄是我們的整體銷量增長 - 抱歉，comp 收入增長了 6%，其中大約3 分來自 OTC 測試，但全年業務仍然強勁 3%，同時我們提高了利潤率。所以我們可以走路和嚼口香糖，對吧？所以利潤率上升了。儘管存在通貨膨脹、供應鏈、圍繞 COVID 的混亂以及商店的壓力，我們仍然提供了這種表現。

So looking forward, we have planned for inflation. But our offsets are coming from a lot of the levers we pulled in the current year. One is we are assuming next year a comp growth of about 2% to 3%. So we're not expecting an acceleration versus the previous year. We're expecting repeat what we did in the base here.

所以展望未來，我們已經為通貨膨脹做好了計劃。但我們的抵消來自我們在本年度拉動的許多槓桿。一是我們假設明年的複合增長率約為 2% 到 3%。因此，我們預計不會比上一年加速。我們期待在這裡重複我們在基地所做的事情。

Two is we have a lot of marketing levers. It's not just the omnichannel and digital investments that we've been making over the last 2 years. There's a customer value transformation program that has delivered significant margin enhancement in the -- in 2022. And that will continue into 2023. And the big one is on brands. We didn't get entirely to the targets we expected in '22. So actually, we see own brands being an even bigger lever going into '23 and '24. So own brands assortment, and that will drive tremendous mix. We have strong own brand positions in some of the health and wellness categories. But have we covered them all? No. Should we be covering them? Yes. And are they very profitable? Yes. So we've got a lot of plans more of the same and more on top again while we're very excited by front of store.

二是我們有很多營銷手段。這不僅僅是我們在過去 2 年中所做的全渠道和數字投資。有一個客戶價值轉型計劃在 2022 年實現了顯著的利潤率提升。這將持續到 2023 年。最重要的是品牌。我們沒有完全達到我們在 22 年預期的目標。所以實際上，我們認為自有品牌是進入 23 年和 24 年的更大槓桿。因此，自有品牌分類，這將推動巨大的組合。我們在一些健康和保健品類中擁有強大的自有品牌地位。但是我們是否都涵蓋了它們？不，我們應該覆蓋它們嗎？是的。他們是否非常有利可圖？是的。因此，當我們對店面感到非常興奮時，我們有很多相同的計劃，並且再次處於首位。

Can I just follow up and ask on the own brand? Is that tied also to shipments coming from China being -- coming in quicker? Is that part of what will help accelerate own brands in the front end?

我可以跟進並詢問自有品牌嗎？這是否也與來自中國的貨物——來得更快有關？這是否有助於在前端加速自有品牌的發展？

No, we actually did pretty good in fiscal '22 on availability in the stores. It wasn't in line with prior levels. But I think if the prior years were at 96 or 98, I think we were at 92 or 90, right? So not dramatically different. So I think the supply chain guys here did a really good job on getting stock in. Seasonal was not great in the current year. We missed some of the seasonal. But the core health and wellness products, we generally had stock across the stores. And that's one of the opportunities we have in the current fiscal year is supply has released freed up from China. So seasonal -- all the seasonal holidays will be better than they were in '22.

不，我們實際上在 22 財年在商店的可用性方面做得很好。這與之前的水平不符。但我認為如果前幾年是 96 或 98，我想我們是 92 或 90，對吧？所以沒有太大的不同。所以我認為這裡的供應鏈人員在進貨方面做得非常好。今年的季節性不是很好。我們錯過了一些季節性的。但核心的健康和保健產品，我們一般在商店都有庫存。這就是我們在本財年擁有的機會之一，即供應已從中國釋放出來。所以季節性的——所有的季節性假期都會比 22 年更好。

Your next question comes from the line of Ann Hynes from Mizuho Securities.

您的下一個問題來自瑞穗證券的 Ann Hynes。

So my question really has to do with the previous question because what really stuck out to me when I saw the guidance for retail, especially the adjusted operating income is for 10% to 11% growth ex COVID, which is, in my sector, one of the probably highest operating growth for next year. So -- and I know you have a lot of confidence in gaining the market share back. Maybe can we look at it in a different way? Like when you look at your guidance, what do you worry about most? What would be the risk for the downside? Are you not achieving it? And can we also talk about international. You're assuming international growth. And sitting here in the U.S., we see a lot of headlines that you're going into a recession. So maybe if you can give a little bit more details on what would be the drivers of growth over there.

所以我的問題確實與上一個問題有關，因為當我看到零售業的指導時，真正讓我印象深刻的是，調整後的營業收入是 10% 到 11% 的增長（不包括 COVID），在我的行業中，可能是明年最高的運營增長。所以——我知道你對重新奪回市場份額很有信心。也許我們可以用不同的方式看待它？就像當你看你的指導時，你最擔心的是什麼？下行的風險是什麼？你沒有達到嗎？我們也可以談談國際嗎？你假設國際增長。坐在美國這裡，我們看到很多頭條新聞說你將陷入衰退。所以，如果你能提供更多關於那裡的增長驅動因素的細節。

Maybe I'd take it a different way, though. I'll take it what's the core EPS growth? And it's -- I'll take a midpoint of around $0.55 and just break it out by business. And we have $0.03 coming from Healthcare, so not a lot. We have very strong plans behind it. all the acquisitions have been closed. And I would say, if I take the Healthcare business, I would say it's slightly skewed to opportunity. The team there has been shifting to more of a private equity cost-optimized rollout of all of the businesses. And we probably have opportunity on the amount of costs we're putting in upfront. So I would say Healthcare at $0.03 is done with probably some opportunity.

不過，也許我會採取不同的方式。我會認為核心每股收益增長是什麼？它是 - 我將取 0.55 美元左右的中點，然後按業務細分。我們有 0.03 美元來自醫療保健，所以不多。我們背後有非常強大的計劃。所有收購都已完成。我會說，如果我從事醫療保健業務，我會說它略微偏向於機會。那裡的團隊一直在轉向更多地對所有業務進行私募股權成本優化。我們可能有機會了解我們預先投入的成本。所以我想說0.03美元的醫療保健可能有一些機會。

International, we expect the contribution. And this is a midpoint of estimates about $0.14. And I don't think it's a crazy number given that we've put out there of 5% to 7% growth in sales. And you just got to look at the most recent performance. We're doing a 6% growth in both the U.K. and in the current environment in the U.K., and we're doing a 6% in Germany. And the plan for next year is to do a 6% and a 4%. So we're not counting on improved circumstances. And I would argue the U.K. is already in the depths of a pretty challenging environment.

國際化，我們期待貢獻。這是估計值的中點，約為 0.14 美元。而且我不認為這是一個瘋狂的數字，因為我們已經實現了 5% 到 7% 的銷售額增長。你只需要看看最近的表現。我們在英國和英國目前的環境下都實現了 6% 的增長，我們在德國實現了 6% 的增長。明年的計劃是做一個6%和一個4%。所以我們不指望改善情況。我認為英國已經處於一個非常具有挑戰性的環境的深處。

What's happening in the U.K. is -- and this has happened over the last 12 to 18 months, a lot of high street retailers went past, and we won all the market share. And these are very profitable categories. So in front, basically, the retail business, we're in a very, very and much stronger position than pre COVID. And then 2 is we've completely shifted the business model in the U.K. on to online. So we have doubled the penetration that we had pre COVID. So it's a completely different business with a different set of strengths. So we believe International should be able to grow revenue at 5% to 7%. That's what we're doing in the most recent quarters. So there's no reason to say it would get materially worse.

在英國發生的事情是——這發生在過去的 12 到 18 個月內，很多高街零售商都過去了，我們贏得了所有的市場份額。這些都是非常有利可圖的類別。因此，基本上，在零售業務的前面，我們處於比 COVID 之前非常非常強大的位置。然後 2 是我們已經將英國的商業模式完全轉變為在線模式。因此，我們將 COVID 之前的滲透率提高了一倍。所以這是一個完全不同的業務，具有不同的優勢。因此，我們認為國際應該能夠以 5% 到 7% 的速度增長收入。這就是我們最近幾個季度所做的事情。所以沒有理由說它會變得更糟。

The other differentiating factor is the cost management across International has been very, very aggressive. We have really downsized the stores. It includes the opticians business, the mainstream business. And Germany, we had an integration of 2 businesses last year and the synergies are way ahead of plan, and it turned out to be a very smart combination. And we own 100% of the business now. So we're getting all the benefits of the synergies. So I think that $0.14 is pretty safe. So you basically come down to talking about the U.S. business, which is $0.38.

另一個差異化因素是整個國際的成本管理非常非常激進。我們確實縮小了商店的規模。它包括眼鏡商業務，主流業務。而德國，我們去年整合了 2 家業務，協同效應遠遠超出了計劃，結果證明這是一個非常聰明的組合。我們現在擁有 100% 的業務。所以我們得到了協同效應的所有好處。所以我認為 0.14 美元是相當安全的。因此，您基本上可以歸結為美國業務，即 0.38 美元。

And just for transparency, we will give you the numbers by business; $0.45 comes from pharmacy, $0.48 from retail and a negative $0.55 from SG&A. So this is the precision, which we're prepared to give the guidance. And we walked through a little bit the -- and I do want to emphasize, don't worry about the International and the Healthcare. This is a discussion around just dimensions in the U.S. The Rx, we discussed the $0.45; retail, 48%; the SG&A, $0.55. We have a very -- we have an investment focused plan. We have $0.40 of labor investments, either minimum wage or in the pharmacy. The pharmacy investments at $0.24 generate a return on investment through scripts. We have incremental marketing on pharmacy. It's probably $0.04, I think it is. That's generating a return on investment.

為了透明起見，我們將按業務向您提供數字； 0.45 美元來自藥房，0.48 美元來自零售，負 0.55 美元來自 SG&A。這就是我們準備提供指導的精度。我們經歷了一點——我確實想強調，不要擔心國際和醫療保健。這是關於美國尺寸的討論。 Rx，我們討論了 0.45 美元；零售，48%； SG&A，0.55 美元。我們有一個非常 - 我們有一個以投資為重點的計劃。我們有 0.40 美元的勞動力投資，無論是最低工資還是藥房。 0.24 美元的藥房投資通過腳本產生投資回報。我們對藥房進行增量營銷。我想可能是 0.04 美元。這會產生投資回報。

We have other investments of roughly $0.55. That's over $0.5 billion in systems capabilities, omnichannel, digital. So we're continuing to invest, and that's what's driving the top line. We have -- we mentioned the inflation number. But TCM in the U.S., that's the transformational cost management, that's $650 million of savings in 1 year plus the business is saving another, I think, $300 million.

我們還有大約 0.55 美元的其他投資。這在系統能力、全渠道、數字方面超過 5 億美元。因此，我們將繼續投資，這就是推動收入增長的原因。我們有 - 我們提到了通貨膨脹數字。但在美國，TCM 就是轉型成本管理，一年內節省了 6.5 億美元，而且我認為企業還節省了 3 億美元。

So we're taking out to fund all these investments. We're taking out almost $1 billion of cost, which is -- it's a massive number. And we're being deliberately transparent on this. To make you understand, we know what we're doing when we're giving these guidance.

因此，我們正在為所有這些投資提供資金。我們花費了近 10 億美元，這是一個巨大的數字。我們故意對此保持透明。為了讓您理解，我們知道在提供這些指導時我們在做什麼。

And I think your question is on risk. I think the #1 risk is we have the plans and they're very detailed, and the money is in the income statement. The question is how quickly will we get back the scripts in the pharmacy business. We're not concerned about reimbursement. We're not concerned about procurement savings. The only risk we see is on Rx scripts in the U.S. And it's orders of magnitude. You can figure out for yourself how much 1% of growth is worth. It's not the end of the world. That just brings you to the bottom end of your guidance or it brings you to the midpoint. It depends on where the Street comes out.

我認為你的問題是有風險的。我認為第一大風險是我們有計劃，而且計劃非常詳細，而且資金在損益表中。問題是我們將在多快的時間內取回藥房業務的腳本。我們不關心報銷。我們不關心採購節省。我們看到的唯一風險是美國的 Rx 腳本，而且是數量級的。你可以自己算出 1% 的增長值多少錢。這不是世界末日。這只會將您帶到指導的底端，或者將您帶到中點。這取決於街道從哪裡出來。

On the flip side, there could be a deeper recession. Well, we think our business is differentiated against mainstream retailers. I'm talking front of store for a minute that we're not in the same high ticket categories where we have smaller baskets. When gas prices are high, people don't travel as much to a Walmart, they go to a Walgreens, right? So we have -- and we have an intense focus on building a much, much bigger owned label business. And we intend to -- we don't say we're insulated but we're far more insulated than some of the other peers out there.

另一方面，可能會出現更嚴重的衰退。好吧，我們認為我們的業務與主流零售商不同。我在店前談了一分鐘，我們不在同一個高票類別，我們有更小的籃子。當汽油價格很高時，人們不會去沃爾瑪，而是去沃爾格林，對吧？所以我們有 - 我們非常專注於建立一個更大的自有品牌業務。我們打算——我們不是說我們是絕緣的，但我們比其他一些同行絕緣得多。

If you don't flip to the opposite side on opportunities, I think -- I personally think, and I'm not sure I can convince all my compatriots all the time. I think we have more opportunity on the cost side. And I think that's the job we have to do. We will develop contingency plans on the cost side such that we will offset any risk in the income statement. Roz mentioned it earlier. The deployment of capital, could we do smaller acquisitions that are immediately EBITDA accretive? Yes, probably. So that becomes an opportunity. So I'm thinking cost plus capital deployment offset Rx volume. That's a simple to sum up. I don't know, Roz, how you would characterize it?

如果你沒有在機會上轉向對立面，我認為——我個人認為，我不確定我是否能一直說服我所有的同胞。我認為我們在成本方面有更多機會。我認為這是我們必須做的工作。我們將在成本方面製定應急計劃，以抵消損益表中的任何風險。羅茲之前提到過。資本部署，我們能否進行小型收購，即刻增加 EBITDA？很可能是。所以這變成了一個機會。所以我認為成本加上資本部署抵消了 Rx 量。這是一個簡單的總結。我不知道，Roz，你會如何描述它？

I think you said it well. The one thing I would add is I don't want to overlook the investments that we're making in our fulfillment centers. That's a capital investment. And the intention with those 8 centers that we have currently that's supporting 1,800 of our stores, our goal is to take about 50% of the scripts out of the store, put them in a central fill location and feed those back to the store. So when you see these investments, it's not only investment in the labor piece. It's also an investment for better jobs for our pharmacists, so they can lift up and consult, and then also we get better throughput in the stores. And so that's part of this equation, to return the script count is that you have better service at the same time, and we're reducing costs by bringing in the fulfillment centers. And it's one of those things that's in the backdrop of our business but really strengthens our operating model inside the stores.

我覺得你說得很好。我要補充的一件事是，我不想忽視我們在履行中心所做的投資。那是資本投資。我們目前擁有的 8 個中心支持我們的 1,800 家商店，我們的目標是從商店中取出大約 50% 的腳本，將它們放在中央填充位置，然後將它們反饋回商店。所以當你看到這些投資時，它不僅僅是對勞動力的投資。這也是為我們的藥劑師提供更好的工作的投資，因此他們可以舉起並諮詢，然後我們也可以在商店中獲得更好的吞吐量。所以這是這個等式的一部分，返回腳本計數是您同時擁有更好的服務，我們通過引入履行中心來降低成本。這是我們業務背景下的事情之一，但確實加強了我們在商店內的運營模式。

Your next question comes from the line of George Hill from Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 George Hill。

I guess I have a couple of questions related to the portfolio and then a housekeeping question. So I guess as you guys talk about continuing to streamline the portfolio. Is it safe to assume that we should continue to see moves like you guys have made with the minority investments in other public companies? And I don't know if you're willing to talk about timing on that. The flip side of that is, given that strategy, does it make sense to fully consolidate and buy out the remaining interest in VillageMD given the growth profile there? And I wanted to ask the housekeeping question of do you guys have a prearranged purchase price for the balance there. And then I have a quick housekeeping follow-up, if you don't mind.

我想我有幾個與投資組合相關的問題，然後是一個家務問題。所以我想你們談論繼續精簡投資組合。假設我們應該繼續看到你們對其他上市公司的少數股權投資所採取的行動，是否安全？我不知道你是否願意談論時間安排。另一方面，鑑於該戰略，考慮到 VillageMD 的增長情況，完全整合和收購對 VillageMD 的剩餘權益是否有意義？我想問一下你們有沒有為那裡的餘額預先安排好的購買價格。如果你不介意的話，我會快速跟進家務。

Sure. George, thanks for that question. So let me talk a little bit about our M&A position. I think one of the things to think about, too, is the work that we did around our Boots strategic position this year as well. So when we look at our portfolio, it's broad. And what James mentioned earlier is that we have a repository of cash that we could access. And you've seen us do that with the work that we did with ABC. We did that work also with our arrangement with Option Care. So our whole objective here is to simplify our portfolio. That's most important for us is to simplify.

當然。喬治，謝謝你的問題。所以讓我談談我們的併購立場。我認為還有一件需要考慮的事情，那就是我們今年圍繞 Boots 戰略定位所做的工作。因此，當我們查看我們的投資組合時，它是廣泛的。詹姆斯之前提到的是，我們有一個可以訪問的現金庫。您已經看到我們通過與 ABC 所做的工作來做到這一點。我們也通過與 Option Care 的安排完成了這項工作。所以我們在這裡的全部目標是簡化我們的投資組合。對我們來說最重要的是簡化。

And then when you see us strategically invest, it's about our healthcare growth. And so we'll be very deliberate about that and send that through a strategic funnel as we think about what we do next. To talk a little bit about our work with Boots, we went through a confidential process. We achieved a high level of interest, about 8 to 10 interested parties. And we were really encouraged. There were productive discussions with a wide range of individuals. And the markets turned on us and we went in another direction and decided to hold on to that asset. And you can see their performance, as we finished, fiscal year '22, was strong. And so we're going to continue to work there in Boots and keep it strong until we make a decision there. So that's one piece to think about.

然後，當您看到我們進行戰略投資時，這與我們的醫療保健增長有關。因此，我們將對此進行深思熟慮，並在我們考慮下一步做什麼時通過戰略漏斗將其發送出去。為了談談我們與 Boots 的合作，我們經歷了一個保密的過程。我們獲得了很高的關注度，大約有 8 到 10 個相關方。我們真的很受鼓舞。與廣泛的個人進行了富有成效的討論。市場轉向了我們，我們朝著另一個方向前進，並決定持有該資產。你可以看到他們的表現，正如我們完成的那樣，22 財年，表現強勁。因此，我們將繼續在 Boots 那里工作並保持強大，直到我們在那裡做出決定。所以這是一件需要考慮的事情。

And then, again, just going back to look at the work that we've already done, we'll engage Village, our CareCentrix team and Shields. And with Village, we don't have a number out there that we've settled on in terms of a preconceived number, and then we've not made any plans with Village to go any further at this point. But the work we're doing with them right now is very strong. It's probably the center of our health care work for us. And so we're excited about it, and it's going well.

然後，再次回顧我們已經完成的工作，我們將與 Village、我們的 CareCentrix 團隊和 Shields 合作。對於 Village，我們沒有根據預先設定的數字確定的數字，然後我們目前還沒有與 Village 制定任何進一步發展的計劃。但是我們現在與他們一起做的工作非常強大。它可能是我們醫療保健工作的中心。所以我們對此感到興奮，而且進展順利。

Yes. So I think just -- maybe add in a little bit on the portfolio. We can't say anything about any of our future actions. But I think you should listen to what Roz said that we are -- we're very, very focused on simplifying the company because it's too complex for investors. And then the second piece is, we are focused on our debt and returning value to shareholders. So we will be in cleanup mode for the foreseeable future.

是的。所以我認為只是 - 可能會在投資組合中添加一點。對於我們未來的任何行動，我們都無話可說。但我認為你應該聽聽 Roz 所說的我們是什麼——我們非常非常專注於簡化公司，因為它對投資者來說太複雜了。然後第二部分是，我們專注於我們的債務和向股東回報價值。因此，在可預見的將來，我們將處於清理模式。

That's great. And maybe just a point of clarification. I wanted to follow up on Steve's question. When you talked about reimbursement being 80% to 85% of 2023, is that what we should assume kind of a like-for-like reimbursement reduction looks like to basically call it down 15%?

那太棒了。也許只是澄清一點。我想跟進史蒂夫的問題。當你談到報銷是 2023 年的 80% 到 85% 時，我們應該假設類似的報銷減少看起來基本上是 15% 嗎？

Yes. What all I mean is if you look at absolute in the income statement in 2022, the '23 number is about 80% to 85% lower just because certain of the contracts are on a year or 2 of the contract. And then -- but the most important factor is we have 95% of the contracts closed. So the volatility in the guidance is reduced, right? So -- because that's what it all is. It's all about volatility. And we got the question on ops and risk. The only thing we theoretically can control, we can influence very heavily as already scripts. But the reimbursement rate is not a large concern going into the year.

是的。我的意思是，如果您在 2022 年的損益表中查看絕對值，那麼 23 年的數字會降低大約 80% 到 85%，因為某些合同是在合同的一年或兩年內完成的。然後——但最重要的因素是我們已經完成了 95% 的合同。所以指導的波動性降低了，對吧？所以——因為這就是一切。這都是關於波動性的。我們得到了關於運營和風險的問題。理論上我們唯一可以控制的東西，我們可以像腳本一樣影響很大。但報銷率並不是進入今年的大問題。

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Cherny from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Michael Cherny。

Maybe James, to pick up on that last comment and some of the commentaries you made around the control of regaining some of that script capture. As you think about the push and pull you have on trying to get some of the scripts that were lost due to the staffing dynamics, can you go a little more granular into some of the specific dynamics that you're pulling forward to? How much of it is consumer-oriented versus payer-oriented in terms of that outreach? And in the past, especially when there's been times of script loss, I know it was before a lot of management's time, but thinking back to the Express Scripts dispute from a decade or so ago, what were some of the activities that worked in order to make sure that you recapture the script growth that you were targeting?

也許詹姆斯，要接聽最後一條評論以及您圍繞重新獲得某些腳本捕獲的控制權所做的一些評論。當您考慮在嘗試獲取由於人員配置動態而丟失的一些腳本時的推拉時，您能否更詳細地了解您正在推進的一些特定動態？就外展而言，有多少是面向消費者的而不是面向支付者的？而在過去，尤其是當有劇本丟失的時候，我知道那是在很多管理層的時間之前，但回想大約十年前的 Express Scripts 糾紛，有哪些活動是有序的以確保您重新獲得您所針對的腳本增長？

Yes, I think it's actually quite scientific. If you take the labor investments, we have each of the stores track and it's startling what the result is. The stores that don't have a labor hour restriction or growing scripts 3%, and the stores that have the labor restrictions are down 3%. That's actually a delta of 6%. So store by store, you put in the labor that you don't just switch it on straight away. You've got a playbook. They got to start calling patients. So there's a big physical element to this, and there's a training and playbook element.

是的，我認為這實際上是非常科學的。如果您進行勞動力投資，我們將跟踪每個商店，結果令人吃驚。沒有工時限製或增長腳本的商店下降了 3%，有勞動力限制的商店下降了 3%。這實際上是 6% 的增量。因此，逐個商店，您付出的努力不僅僅是立即打開它。你有一本劇本。他們必須開始給病人打電話。所以這有一個很大的身體因素，還有一個訓練和劇本的元素。

The other part is the marketing team has defined programs on outreach to all of the patients. We've got to first figure out which ones we lost by store because it makes no sense to contact the patient if that store hasn't been soft, right? So you first got to put the labor back, then you got to do the outreach. And as I said, we've built in, I think, $45 million of marketing -- incremental marketing dollars in pharmacy on this consumer engagement. So it's very data-driven. It's very, very focused. But ultimately, it's quite complex because you got to reach the consumer and they've lapsed and you've got to convince them to come back and that the -- and our service level in the overall store has gone up. I don't know, Rick, do you want to maybe add some light to that?

另一部分是營銷團隊已經定義了針對所有患者的外展計劃。我們必須首先弄清楚我們丟失了哪些商店，因為如果商店不軟，聯繫病人是沒有意義的，對吧？所以你首先要把勞動力放回去，然後你必須做外展。正如我所說，我認為，我們已經建立了 4500 萬美元的營銷資金——在這種消費者參與方面增加了藥房的營銷資金。所以它非常受數據驅動。它非常非常專注。但最終，它是相當複雜的，因為你必須接觸消費者，他們已經失效，你必須說服他們回來，而且我們在整個商店的服務水平已經提高。我不知道，瑞克，你想給它加點光嗎？

I think it's the right question. I think as you look at the -- our ability in the marketing space, it's very much advanced from where it was back in the days of Express Scripts and all the stuff you referenced. And if you look at our ability on the mass personalization side and really understanding the dynamics of where consumers are, how do we actually meet them, where they are and understanding how to win them back. It's not just a win back. It's also trying to engage them in a different way to really get them to leverage our stores for more than just scripts or services and other types of things that we're doing as well. So I think what you'll see is a very focused approach on how we leverage our marketing dollars to really have a bigger impact than we would have in the mass personalization or the broad-based marketing campaigns we may have had in the past.

我認為這是正確的問題。我認為，當您看到我們在營銷領域的能力時，它與 Express Scripts 和您引用的所有內容的時代相比已經非常先進。如果你看看我們在大規模個性化方面的能力，並真正了解消費者在哪裡的動態，我們如何真正滿足他們，他們在哪裡，以及了解如何贏回他們。這不僅僅是一場胜利。它還試圖以不同的方式吸引他們，以真正讓他們利用我們的商店，而不僅僅是腳本或服務以及我們正在做的其他類型的事情。因此，我認為您將看到一種非常集中的方法，即我們如何利用我們的營銷資金來真正產生比我們過去可能在大規模個性化或基礎廣泛的營銷活動中產生的更大的影響。

So if I may ask a quick follow-up along those lines relative to those marketing campaigns. What precisely are you doing? I know there's been a dynamic in place when someone leaves, it's really hard to pull them back out. And if there are scenarios where because they're disappointed that the hours didn't work, whatever it means. How do you convince them really specifically to get back in the door?

因此，如果我可以要求對這些營銷活動進行快速跟進。你到底在做什麼？我知道當有人離開時會有一種動態，很難把他們拉回來。如果在某些情況下，因為他們對小時沒有工作感到失望，不管這意味著什麼。你如何說服他們真正回到門口？

So there's a couple of access points that we have. It really lies in the space of the digital work that we've done over the past couple of years, and it's mounting. We opened the conversation today and talked about that we had 102 million members right now coming through our Walgreens -- myWalgreens app. Those are customers that come into our stores in various ways. And then we also are aware of what they purchase. So a lot of this has to do with the data and analytics that we're pulling together around the customer and speaking to them on a one-to-one basis, and then we can reach back out to them and then engage -- reengage them back into the process. So we can track script loss, we can track their activity in the store, and we put that information together and then tie them back into that actual physical location that they had their script at in the past. So that's the work that we're doing and the marketing dollars that come behind this are not the traditional marketing dollars from years past. This is primarily a digital plan.

所以我們有幾個接入點。它確實存在於我們在過去幾年中所做的數字工作領域，並且正在增加。我們今天開始對話，談到我們現在有 1.02 億會員通過我們的 Walgreens——myWalgreens 應用程序。這些是以各種方式進入我們商店的客戶。然後我們也知道他們購買了什麼。因此，這在很大程度上與我們在客戶周圍匯集並與他們進行一對一交談的數據和分析有關，然後我們可以與他們聯繫，然後參與 - 重新參與他們回到這個過程。所以我們可以跟踪腳本丟失，我們可以跟踪他們在商店中的活動，我們將這些信息放在一起，然後將它們綁定回他們過去擁有腳本的實際物理位置。這就是我們正在做的工作，而這背後的營銷資金不是過去幾年的傳統營銷資金。這主要是一個數字計劃。

Your next question comes from the line of Kevin Caliendo from UBS.

您的下一個問題來自 UBS 的 Kevin Caliendo。

James, the dividend payout ratio is really, really high this year. I think we calculated at something like 75%. You've talked about growing the dividend. That's certainly the goal, remaining investment grade and having the cash flow improve dramatically next year. And I guess I want to sort of understand is the cash flow improvement going to come from lower CapEx? Is it better cash flow conversion? Like I noticed your ratio to net income was really low in fiscal '22. And at what point -- like what's the right payout ratio for Walgreens? Given now it's an accelerated growth story, how should we think about that in the context of all the moving parts around investment spend and potential M&A and everything else?

詹姆斯，今年的派息率真的非常高。我認為我們計算的大約是 75%。你談到了增加股息。這當然是目標，保持投資等級並在明年大幅改善現金流。我想我想了解一下現金流的改善是否會來自較低的資本支出？是不是更好的現金流轉換？就像我注意到你與淨收入的比率在 22 財年非常低。在什麼時候——比如沃爾格林的正確派息率是多少？鑑於現在這是一個加速增長的故事，在圍繞投資支出和潛在併購以及其他所有活動的所有因素的背景下，我們應該如何考慮這一點？

Yes. No, our cash flow this year, we were honestly a little disappointed how we finished the year. We probably came in a couple of hundred million lighter than we expected. We kind of mentioned it in the prepared comments, but it's this thing. We have placed all the advanced orders to make sure on-shelf availability was even higher, and China opened up quicker than we expected. And we ended up with some excesses. But that will completely work itself out of the system over the next few months.

是的。不，我們今年的現金流，老實說，我們對這一年的結束感到有些失望。我們可能比我們預期的要輕幾億。我們在準備好的評論中提到了它，但就是這樣。我們已經下了所有的高級訂單，以確保貨架上的可用性更高，而且中國的開放速度比我們預期的要快。我們最終出現了一些過度行為。但這將在接下來的幾個月內完全脫離系統。

We have specifically, I think -- I don't get this. I think we've got $700 roughly million of working capital initiatives next year. We had some delays on (inaudible) this year, and they're going to just be pushed into next year. So we are counting on around $700 million of working capital initiatives next year. But I think the cash flow will improve next year, but we are actually going to be increasing our capital investment. So don't expect next year to get back to the run rate because we will be probably -- our typical CapEx spend over a multiyear period was $1.4 billion this year is $1.7 billion or something.

我認為，我們有具體的 - 我不明白這一點。我認為明年我們有大約 7 億美元的營運資金計劃。我們今年（聽不清）有一些延誤，它們將被推遲到明年。因此，我們預計明年將有大約 7 億美元的營運資金計劃。但我認為明年現金流會有所改善，但我們實際上會增加資本投資。所以不要指望明年會恢復到運行速度，因為我們可能會 - 我們在多年期間的典型資本支出是 14 億美元，今年是 17 億美元左右。

Next year will be higher. It will be -- we have many nuclear centers. We're scaling up on VillageMD -- and we have compelling programs that will deliver long-term returns. I think you get into '24 and '25 and the CapEx will be -- sorry, the free cash flow will be substantially higher than current levels. And we'll work ourselves comfortably into any kind of receptible payout ratio. You're right. We're a little uncomfortable where the ratio is, but we have great visibility for the long-term ratio. So we're much less concerned than maybe some market participants about the absolute level of the dividend.

明年會更高。它將是——我們有許多核中心。我們正在擴大 VillageMD 的規模——我們有令人信服的計劃，可以帶來長期的回報。我認為您進入 24 年和 25 年，資本支出將 - 抱歉，自由現金流將大大高於當前水平。我們將輕鬆地適應任何可接受的派息率。你是對的。我們對這個比率有點不舒服，但我們對長期比率有很好的了解。因此，與某些市場參與者相比，我們對股息的絕對水平的擔憂要少得多。

You saw in the materials we just presented this morning, it remains growing the dividend is still one of our priorities. And in fact, we did highlight that when we look to 2024 and 2025, we didn't just mentioned the dividend. We said and there is the potential for a large share repurchase program, but no decision has been taken on any share repurchase program. So we -- this is -- I think what we said last October, we're facing into a period of 24 months of investment to build out the U.S. healthcare business, and the returns will be outsized and the working capital will -- sorry, the free cash flow will come back up to -- in the $3 billion to $4 billion type range in '24, '25, that kind of range. And we'll comfortably work ourselves into an appropriate ratio for dividend. I don't know, did that answer your question?

您在我們今天早上剛剛介紹的材料中看到，它仍在增長，股息仍然是我們的優先事項之一。事實上，我們確實強調，當我們展望 2024 年和 2025 年時，我們並沒有隻提到股息。我們說過，有可能進行大規模的股票回購計劃，但尚未就任何股票回購計劃做出決定。所以我們 - 這是 - 我認為我們去年 10 月所說的，我們正面臨 24 個月的投資期來建立美國醫療保健業務，回報將非常大，營運資金將 - 抱歉，自由現金流將在 24 年和 25 年恢復到 30 億到 40 億美元的範圍內。我們會輕鬆地將自己調整為適當的股息比率。不知道，有沒有回答你的問題？

It does. it's really helpful to understand sort of how you're thinking about this and how we should think about it.

確實如此。了解您對此的想法以及我們應該如何考慮它真的很有幫助。

Yes. I think we have a large -- and I'd leave it on that. I think if you look at '24 and '25, we have a large opportunity on capital deployment. So it is -- it's either share repurchase, it's M&A, and it just becomes a discussion on which one is more accretive and which one drives more shareholder value longer term.

是的。我認為我們有一個很大的 - 我會留下它。我認為，如果您查看 24 年和 25 年，我們在資本部署方面有很大的機會。所以它是 - 它要么是股票回購，要么是併購，它只是成為一個關於哪個更具增值性以及哪個更長期推動股東價值的討論。

Your next question comes from the line of A.J. Rice from Credit Suisse.

你的下一個問題來自 A.J.瑞士信貸大米。

Just maybe ask about the retail a little bit more. You mentioned the forward buying you're doing ahead of the cough, cold and flu season. Does that suggest you have any particular view as to what this cough, cold and flu season is going to look like? I know also you got the scripts coming back in the U.S. Are you assuming any benefit on the front of store from that pickup in incremental scripts? And then I would finally ask around this that you highlighted that you're still running below pre-pandemic levels and foot traffic in the U.K. Do you think that's the new normal? Or do you think that will, at some point, come back? And any comment about where the U.S. sits relative to pre-pandemic levels and whether you've pretty much normalized. I know you had an uptick in COVID, but just where are we at? Do you think we're in a normalized front of store today at this point and going forward?

只是也許多問一下零售。您提到了在咳嗽、感冒和流感季節之前進行的遠期購買。這是否表明你對這個咳嗽、感冒和流感季節會是什麼樣子有什麼特別的看法？我也知道您將腳本帶回了美國。您是否假設從增量腳本中提取的商店前台有任何好處？然後我最後會問這個問題，你強調你仍然低於大流行前的水平和英國的人流量。你認為這是新常態嗎？或者你認為這會在某個時候回來嗎？以及關於美國相對於大流行前水平的位置以及您是否已經基本正常化的任何評論。我知道你在 COVID 方面有所上升，但我們在哪裡？您是否認為我們今天處於正常化的店面並繼續前進？

So let me start this off. A lot of questions here on our predictions on COVID levels. It's hard to predict right now. We saw some recent comments this week about availability of vaccines at different age levels and taking that down. And then that's something that we hadn't forecasted in our thinking and also, too, in terms of what we see in cold, cough and flu, we know that people been -- there's been a flu spin out there. And we know that last year, people were wearing mask. And so after a while, your immunity can get hit pretty severely. So I've got Rick gates here in the room. I'm going to let him talk a little bit about what he's seeing out in the industry there and what we're doing in terms of on-the-shelf products and those kinds of things. Rick?

所以讓我開始吧。這裡有很多關於我們對 COVID 水平的預測的問題。現在很難預測。本週我們看到了一些關於不同年齡段疫苗可用性的評論，並將其取消。然後這是我們在思考中沒有預測到的事情，同樣，就我們在感冒、咳嗽和流感中看到的情況而言，我們知道人們已經——那裡發生了流感。我們知道，去年，人們戴著口罩。所以過了一段時間，你的免疫力會受到相當嚴重的打擊。所以我在房間裡有里克門。我將讓他談談他在該行業中看到的情況以及我們在現成產品和此類事情方面正在做的事情。瑞克？

Again, I think you're right, Roz. And just to add. I think as you look at fiscal year '23, we're anticipating a back to normal seasonal flu, back to more of a pre-COVID pandemic. And so I think what you're seeing in the Southern Hemisphere is going to really impact us here in the Northern Hemisphere. And so I think whether it's going to be seasonal scripts or it's going to be OTC sales. I think that's all built into the plan based off of the expectations that we have. I think the COVID side of it is still the unknown, right, if you look at thoughts of annual boosters, how that ties together. But we are seeing a pretty strong uptick already in flu shots and those types of things early in the year, which is indicative, I think, of consumers really trying to protect themselves for what could be a pretty heavy flu season this year.

再一次，我認為你是對的，羅茲。只是補充一下。我認為，當您查看 23 財年時，我們預計會恢復到正常的季節性流感，更像是 COVID 之前的大流行。所以我認為你在南半球看到的將會真正影響到我們在北半球這裡。所以我認為無論是季節性劇本還是場外銷售。我認為這一切都是基於我們的期望而納入計劃的。我認為它的 COVID 方面仍然是未知數，對，如果你看看年度助推器的想法，它們是如何联系在一起的。但我們已經看到今年年初流感疫苗和這些類型的事情已經出現了相當強勁的增長，我認為，這表明消費者真的在努力保護自己，以應對今年可能相當嚴重的流感季節。

Yes. And then you had a question on the foot traffic. So it's a great question in the U.K. Foot traffic is below pre pandemic, but the center of city plus travel locations continue to improve sequentially every quarter. So there will be improvement over -- but I would say the recovery will not necessarily be absolute, and it will be over a multiyear period. The key question is how many people go back to the office. Central London is very, very driven. Many people in train stations and many people are actually doing this office trip. And until -- and I don't think it's realistic to assume that you're going to get 100% return to pre-COVID office behavior.

是的。然後你有一個關於人流量的問題。因此，在英國，這是一個很好的問題。人流量低於大流行前，但城市中心和旅遊地點每個季度都在持續改善。所以會有改善 - 但我會說復甦不一定是絕對的，而且會持續多年。關鍵問題是有多少人回到辦公室。倫敦市中心非常非常有動力。很多人在火車站，很多人其實都在做這種辦公室旅行。直到——我認為假設你將 100% 恢復到 COVID 之前的辦公室行為是不現實的。

So the flip side of this is that we believe that we'll continue to capture the larger basket size because that's a behavioral shift that has changed and it hasn't been deteriorating and plus the shift to omnichannel. So I would say that the store will never get back to exactly where it was before in the U.K. but we've more than compensated by the omnichannel and the size of the online business. So as I said before, we're much, much stronger overall in the U.K. and our shares -- our share -- the proof is in the share of market. Our share of market is already higher than COVID on a value basis. So in one way or another, we've captured back the value that's in the U.K. market and more. And I think that's the ultimate test. I don't have 3-year stacks in the U.S. on foot traffic.

因此，另一方面，我們相信我們將繼續抓住更大的籃子規模，因為這是一種行為轉變，已經發生了變化，並且沒有惡化，而且還轉向全渠道。所以我想說這家商店永遠不會回到英國以前的樣子，但我們已經通過全渠道和在線業務的規模得到了更多的補償。因此，正如我之前所說，我們在英國的整體實力要強大得多，我們的份額——我們的份額——就是市場份額的證明。在價值基礎上，我們的市場份額已經高於 COVID。因此，我們以一種或另一種方式奪回了英國市場的價值，甚至更多。我認為這是終極考驗。我在美國沒有 3 年的步行交通。

I don't think we have...

我不認為我們有...

Yes. But I think it wasn't as dramatic in the U.K. The drop was not as dramatic because our stores stayed open and the U.K. -- sorry, in the U.S. The U.K., there were actually shutdowns of some of our stores in select locations. So the trough wasn't as deep in the U.S., and the recovery was much, much quicker in the U.S., but I don't think it's entirely recovered to pre COVID .

是的。但我認為在英國並沒有那麼戲劇性。下降沒有那麼戲劇性，因為我們的商店保持營業而且英國 - 抱歉，在美國英國，我們在特定地點的一些商店實際上已經關閉。因此，美國的低谷並沒有那麼深，美國的複蘇要快得多，但我認為它還沒有完全恢復到 COVID 之前。

The only thing I'd add to that is the uniqueness in the U.K. The airport locations, if you look at just segmenting where our retail exists, airport locations had significant growth and continue to see that. We're seeing recovery in our convenience locations. And then as James just mentioned, where we need to see some improved performances around our flagship stores and those stores that are on High Street and some of the destination and health and beauty area. So we'll continue to see the nice work that the U.K. team is doing in that business and watch things like they're facing energy cost, and we just wonder if that's going to slow down traffic over a period of time. So we'll keep -- we're optimistic on the U.K. business.

我唯一要補充的是英國機場位置的獨特性，如果你只看一下我們零售店所在的細分市場，機場位置有顯著增長並繼續看到這一點。我們在便利的地方看到了復甦。然後正如詹姆斯剛剛提到的，我們需要在我們的旗艦店和位於高街的商店以及一些目的地以及健康和美容區周圍看到一些改進的表現。因此，我們將繼續看到英國團隊在該業務中所做的出色工作，並觀察他們面臨能源成本的情況，我們只是想知道這是否會在一段時間內減慢交通速度。所以我們會保持 - 我們對英國業務持樂觀態度。

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Tanquilut from Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Brian Tanquilut。

You've got Taji Philips on for Brian. So I just want to circle back to the issue around pharmacist labor and that driving softer scripts this quarter. Can you just talk about how the labor environment has trended throughout the year and the levers that you can pull to bring that SG&A impact down? And then as a follow-up to that general topic, can you discuss the labor headwinds you're seeing across Walgreens Health? And is that baked into the guidance? And if you can provide some color, what's the magnitude of that?

你已經為布賴恩啟用了 Taji Philips。因此，我只想回到圍繞藥劑師勞動力的問題以及本季度推動更軟腳本的問題。您能否談談全年勞動力環境的趨勢以及您可以利用哪些槓桿來降低 SG&A 的影響？然後作為該一般主題的後續行動，您能否討論一下您在 Walgreens Health 看到的勞工逆風？這是否包含在指導中？如果你能提供一些顏色，那有多大？

Okay. So labor trends in Walgreens Health side, we -- there's really no impact there. That's our primary care physician position through VillageMD. We're continuing to grow the number of primary care physicians. So we're really not seeing a labor issue on our Walgreens Health side. It's primarily in our retail sector and foot traffic in our stores impacted by what we have to do. I'll give you some examples. We still have emergency callout as people are diagnosed with COVID. And so that requires us to take a look almost daily at who's running the pharmacy and the pharmacy technicians.

好的。所以沃爾格林健康方面的勞動力趨勢，我們——那裡真的沒有影響。這是我們通過 VillageMD 擔任的初級保健醫生職位。我們正在繼續增加初級保健醫生的數量。因此，我們在 Walgreens Health 方面確實沒有看到勞工問題。這主要是在我們的零售部門和我們商店的客流量受到我們必須做的事情的影響。我會給你一些例子。當人們被診斷出患有新冠病毒時，我們仍然有緊急呼叫。因此，這要求我們幾乎每天都查看誰在經營藥房和藥房技術人員。

And then the second part of that is to make sure that some of this is geographically based, too. We're seeing in the upper Northeast areas like Vermont in those areas that we're seeing that really the workplace and people reengaging in work is not happening as quickly. So we're working a little bit harder to reengage people to get them back to work, and that's why you see some of the incentives that we've had in getting people to sign up for bonus pay and starting with our pharmacists. So really, what we're seeing in terms of labor, we made investments over the time frame we announced last year that we would go to $15 an hour on our hourly labor. That has helped us tremendously because we're competitive in the stores. And that's rolling out and will be finished in the next -- I think we've got another 12 months to roll that across the country.

然後第二部分是確保其中一些也是基於地理的。我們在佛蒙特州等東北部上游地區看到，真正的工作場所和人們重新投入工作的速度並沒有那麼快發生。因此，我們正在更加努力地重新吸引人們讓他們重返工作崗位，這就是為什麼你會看到我們在讓人們註冊獲得獎金並從我們的藥劑師開始時所獲得的一些激勵措施。所以真的，我們在勞動力方面看到的是，我們在去年宣布的時間範圍內進行了投資，我們的小時工將達到每小時 15 美元。這對我們幫助很大，因為我們在商店中具有競爭力。這正在推出並將在下一個完成 - 我認為我們還有 12 個月的時間在全國范圍內推出。

So the combination of our investments in labor and improving our working conditions in stores, all of those things are driving our employees back to the store. And also, you're probably seeing some issues with labor in different sectors. But I would have to say that we're doing our best work in terms of best jobs and best pay for our labor model that we deploy in our stores.

因此，我們對勞動力的投資和改善我們在商店的工作條件相結合，所有這些都促使我們的員工回到商店。而且，您可能會看到不同行業的勞工問題。但我不得不說，我們正在為我們在商店中部署的勞動模式提供最好的工作和最好的報酬。

Your next question comes from the line of Eric Percher from Nephron Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Nephron Research 的 Eric Percher。

I wanted to connect some of the commentary on both labor and COVID to the guidance for the year. You mentioned a little lower first half relative to where consensus is. Is it fair to assume that the COVID benefit, the 16 million shots will be first half weighted? And at 16 million, is that still larger than your expectation for flu shots in the average year? And then aside from that, is it fair also to assume the labor benefits will not be in place by the flu season? Those are kind of back half of the year for what we should expect relative to retail.

我想將一些關於勞工和 COVID 的評論與今年的指導聯繫起來。你提到的前半部分相對於共識的位置要低一些。假設 COVID 的好處，1600 萬張照片將在上半年加權是否公平？而在 1600 萬，這是否仍高於您對流感疫苗平均每年的預期？然後除此之外，假設流感季節不會提供勞工福利是否公平？對於我們相對於零售業的預期，這些都是今年下半年。

I'm just looking at the forecast, I think the majority of the vaccines will be earlier in the year -- of the 16 million we said. So because it's all a booster, right? And all of the emphasis is on it now. So I would have said out of 16 million probably I don't know if there's a couple of million that would be in the second half. The rest would be in the first half would probably a skew to the first quarter. But when we made the comment on the phasing, I think the consensus is up 54%, something like that. 54% of the EPS is in the first half. It's probably closer to 52% or 51%. It's not down in 50%. But we just wanted to guide that it was a little bit on the heavy side, and it just required a slight adjustment. That's the way I would emphasize it.

我只是在看預測，我認為大多數疫苗將在今年早些時候出現——我們所說的 1600 萬。所以因為這都是助推器，對吧？現在所有的重點都在它上面。所以我會說，在 1600 萬中，我可能不知道下半年是否會有幾百萬。其餘的將在上半年可能會偏向第一季度。但是當我們對分階段發表評論時，我認為共識上升了 54%，差不多。 54%的EPS在上半年。它可能接近 52% 或 51%。它沒有下降50％。但我們只是想引導它有點偏重，只需要稍微調整一下。這就是我要強調的方式。

And then you asked about labor. The labor is basically in place, right? So it's going to be -- if you take from now onwards, all the temporary measures are already in place, and changes were in place. I think [merit] has been announced. So if you take the 265 of pharmacy, I think it's pretty much all year. I might get this slightly wrong. And then the minimum wage is pretty similar we're going up in stages. It's -- there's also the minimum wage, which is -- I think it's 240 in 2023. And that's roughly coming in the same phasing all year.

然後你問勞動。勞動力基本到位了吧？所以它會是——如果你從現在開始，所有的臨時措施都已經到位，並且改變已經到位。我認為[優點]已經公佈。所以如果你拿藥房的265，我想這幾乎是一整年。我可能會有點錯誤。然後最低工資與我們分階段提高的非常相似。它是 - 還有最低工資，即 - 我認為 2023 年是 240。這與全年大致相同。

Sorry, Eric, did I get all your questions?

抱歉，埃里克，我得到你所有的問題了嗎？

Yes. I guess is the implication that's really ramp of (inaudible) and maybe the U.S. healthcare contributions that...

是的。我想這確實是（聽不清）的暗示，也許是美國的醫療保健貢獻……

Yes. Look at U.S. Healthcare, you're right. Yes, you're right. U.S. health care as an EPS will still be a headwind in the first quarter, will be neutral in the second quarter. And actually, healthcare turns to be a generator of favorable EPS growth in the second half of next year, if there is a large phase-in impact on healthcare.

是的。看看美國的醫療保健，你是對的。你是對的。美國醫療保健作為每股收益在第一季度仍將是逆風，在第二季度將是中性的。實際上，如果對醫療保健有很大的階段性影響，醫療保健將在明年下半年成為有利的每股收益增長的動力。

Your next question comes from the line of Ricky Goldwasser from Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ricky Goldwasser。

This is Erin Wright on for Ricky today. A follow-up on capital deployment and the questions there. I know that you're limited on what you can say on the investment, as you mentioned. But broadly speaking, does your debt paydown assumptions in 2023 assume or is contingent on further monetization of those assets in your portfolio? And then just a quick clarification. I just wanted to make sure or clarify, are you anticipating any recession risk in your international target at this point? Or is it really just a continuation of what you're seeing now?

這是今天為 Ricky 主持的 Erin Wright。跟進資本部署和那裡的問題。正如你所提到的，我知道你對投資的看法是有限的。但從廣義上講，您在 2023 年的債務償還假設是否假設或取決於您投資組合中這些資產的進一步貨幣化？然後只是一個快速的澄清。我只是想確定或澄清一下，您目前是否預計您的國際目標有任何衰退風險？或者它真的只是你現在看到的東西的延續？

Yes. Sorry...

是的。對不起...

Go ahead with the international recession.

繼續應對國際經濟衰退。

Yes. On the recession risk and international, we've already built in a fairly -- I wouldn't say conservative, but a realistic plan. And the -- I would argue the recession has hit, if there is one, has hit the U.K. already. So they came in with their budgets, and we had a robust discussion on what the outlook looked like. And they've probably built a scenario that is a recession, whereas in the U.S., it's moderate recession stance. So that covers that piece. And then on monetization, we can't speak that much about it.

是的。關於衰退風險和國際，我們已經建立了一個公平的——我不會說保守的，而是一個現實的計劃。而且 - 我認為經濟衰退已經襲擊了，如果有的話，已經襲擊了英國。所以他們帶著他們的預算進來了，我們就前景的樣子進行了激烈的討論。他們可能已經建立了一種經濟衰退的情景，而在美國，這是溫和的衰退立場。所以這涵蓋了那部分。然後在貨幣化方面，我們不能說太多。

Yes.

是的。

It's just not -- it's impacting other people's share prices. But I think you need to go back to the prepared comments, we want to simplify the company over a fairly short period of time. But that's not saying what we're going to do specifically next year.

只是沒有——它正在影響其他人的股價。但我認為你需要回到準備好的評論，我們希望在相當短的時間內簡化公司。但這並不是說我們明年要具體做什麼。

Your next question comes from the line of Justin Lake from Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Justin Lake。

This is Austin on for Justin. James, I wanted to kind of return quick to the -- you guys laid out that 8% to 10% core growth. And I know you've kind of laid out a lot of moving parts through the Q&A here, but hoping to kind of just consolidate and kind of bridge that in one place. What are the building blocks there around shrink, the pharmacist bonuses, kind of working our way through that? And then as a quick follow-up there. Just hoping for any kind of updated color on 340B, if there's kind of a magnitude of headwind or tailwind that you guys are sort of thinking about there?

這是賈斯汀的奧斯汀。詹姆斯，我想快速回歸——你們列出了 8% 到 10% 的核心增長。而且我知道你已經通過這裡的問答列出了很多活動部分，但希望只是在一個地方鞏固和橋接這些部分。圍繞收縮、藥劑師獎金的構建塊是什麼？然後作為快速跟進。只是希望 340B 有任何更新的顏色，如果你們在那裡考慮有很大的逆風或順風嗎？

Yes. The -- I'll kind of simplify and just summarize the U.S. business. We said that the pharmacy business is $0.45 favorable. Retail was negative $0.48-- sorry, positive $0.48, and SG&A negative $0.55. So we had a robust discussion that labor and significant investments to drive top line are mostly offset by transformational cost management program and cost programs. They're all very well defined there's people and names beside each initiative in the SG&A. We had the discussion on retail. Shrink specifically, I think, is an $0.08 favorability in 2023, if you want the specific number.

是的。 - 我會簡化一下，只是總結一下美國的業務。我們說藥房業務是 0.45 美元的優惠。零售為負 0.48 美元——抱歉，正 0.48 美元，SG&A 負 0.55 美元。因此，我們進行了強有力的討論，即推動收入增長的勞動力和重大投資大部分被轉型成本管理計劃和成本計劃所抵消。它們的定義都非常明確，SG&A 中的每個倡議旁邊都有人員和名稱。我們討論了零售。我認為，如果您想要具體數字，具體收縮是 2023 年 0.08 美元的優惠。

But the retail story of $0.48 is all about the comps are growing at 2% to 3% ex COVID impacts, mix will be significantly positive because of a large drive on new own label and assortment. And then finally, the strategic planning and customer -- sorry, strategic pricing and customer value transformation. And you get into Rx, and we said the scripts were up 5%. And we have very large visibility to reimbursement, which is slightly lower than the previous year. And we have high visibility to cost evolution on generics, which continues at a similar pace in 2023 as we did in '22.

但是 0.48 美元的零售故事完全是關於組合在不影響 COVID 影響的情況下以 2% 到 3% 的速度增長，由於新的自有品牌和分類的大量推動，混合將顯著積極。最後是戰略規劃和客戶——抱歉，戰略定價和客戶價值轉換。然後你進入 Rx，我們說腳本上漲了 5%。而且我們對報銷的可見度非常大，比上一年略低。我們對仿製藥的成本演變有很高的了解，2023 年的成本演變速度與 22 年類似。

So -- and then pharmacy services was the last piece. So I think we have significant programs and drivers behind each of the numbers we gave you. And I hope you appreciate we're giving a lot more guidance on the individual components of the business and what's driving them.

所以 - 然後藥房服務是最後一塊。因此，我認為我們提供給您的每個數字背後都有重要的計劃和驅動因素。我希望您感謝我們就業務的各個組成部分以及驅動它們的原因提供了更多指導。

And your final question comes from the line of John Ransom from Raymond James.

您的最後一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 John Ransom。

If I look at the new guidance for '23 and I compare it to what you guys implied a year ago, I mean we're running $0.70 or so behind. So I was just wondering if you could help bridge us to where we are now versus where we thought we'd be and kind of what the specifics were of the change?

如果我查看 23 年的新指導並將其與你們一年前暗示的進行比較，我的意思是我們落後了 0.70 美元左右。所以我只是想知道你是否可以幫助我們將我們與現在的位置聯繫起來，而不是我們認為的位置，以及變化的具體細節是什麼？

Sure. So it's actually $0.60. And the 2 biggest drivers -- well, I'll give you one is ABC, for example, we sold some of our shareholding. That cost $0.14. So it's not a small number. And then the financial climate, we have lower pension returns in the U.K., that's about $0.05. And then ForEx is $0.12. So there's a lot of corporate type items that have nothing to do with the core business. And then if you take the core of the business, the pharmacy business is the largest variation. That's about $0.30 and it's coming from 2 things. 340B, it's not a particular headwind year-on-year, but versus our original guidance, it's a very large number. It's almost all of the $0.30.

當然。所以實際上是 0.60 美元。兩個最大的驅動因素——好吧，我給你一個是 ABC，例如，我們出售了部分股權。這花費了 0.14 美元。所以這不是一個小數目。然後是金融環境，我們在英國的養老金回報率較低，約為 0.05 美元。然後 ForEx 是 0.12 美元。所以有很多公司類型的項目與核心業務無關。然後如果你把業務的核心，藥房業務是最大的變化。這大約是 0.30 美元，它來自兩件事。 340B，與去年同期相比並不是一個特別的逆風，但與我們最初的指導相比，這是一個非常大的數字。這幾乎是所有的 0.30 美元。

Script volume. Script volume is worse than the prior guidance, but so are the procurement savings is -- are way, way better and they offset that. So I would have called it a 340B issue on pharmacy. And then if we flip to SG&A, it's about $0.30 worse, and that's all from labor costs. So it's all the pharmacy labor that we've put in place. So if you wanted to kind of simplify it, there's a bunch of corporate stuff, call it $0.20 or $0.30, and then there's a 340B issue.

腳本卷。腳本量比之前的指導差，但採購節省也是如此——好得多，而且它們抵消了這一點。所以我會把它稱為藥房的 340B 問題。然後，如果我們轉向 SG&A，它會差大約 0.30 美元，而這一切都來自勞動力成本。所以這是我們已經到位的所有藥房勞動力。所以如果你想簡化它，有一堆公司的東西，稱之為 0.20 美元或 0.30 美元，然後是 340B 問題。

And this concludes our Q&A session. I will now turn the call back over to Ms. Roz Brewer for some closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我現在將把電話轉回給 Roz Brewer 女士，以作結束語。

So thanks again to all of you all for joining us today. I personally appreciate the engagement and the relevancy of the questions. We were very intentional about making sure that you know we were committed to providing you with as much detail and transparency as possible. And we shared even more information about how WBA is executing well on the 4 strategic priorities and then how we're transforming rapidly into a healthcare company. Those are the real takeaways there. But to just recap, as we close this down, I know it's been a couple of hours is I want to remind everybody that we'll be focused on accelerating our growth and profitability in our U.S. Healthcare segment.

所以再次感謝大家今天加入我們。我個人很欣賞這些問題的參與度和相關性。我們非常有意確保您知道我們致力於為您提供盡可能多的細節和透明度。我們還分享了更多關於 WBA 如何在 4 個戰略重點上執行良好以及我們如何快速轉型為醫療保健公司的信息。這些是那裡真正的收穫。但回顧一下，當我們關閉它時，我知道已經過了幾個小時，我想提醒大家，我們將專注於加速我們在美國醫療保健領域的增長和盈利能力。

We'll focus on optimizing our best-in-class assets and our partners. We'll focus on driving positive momentum in our resilient core business and making significant progress on talent and capabilities and moving quickly to simplify our portfolio. And we'll do this at a pace to deliver our long-term growth algorithm. So we look forward to continue to keeping you fully updated as we build on our success in the months ahead. We hope you have a great rest of your day. And as always, we deeply appreciate all of your support and commitment to the bright future we've planned. Thank you so much.

我們將專注於優化我們一流的資產和我們的合作夥伴。我們將專注於推動我們有彈性的核心業務的積極勢頭，並在人才和能力方面取得重大進展，並迅速採取行動以簡化我們的投資組合。我們將以提供我們的長期增長算法的速度這樣做。因此，我們期待在未來幾個月的成功基礎上繼續為您提供全面更新。我們希望您度過愉快的一天。與往常一樣，我們非常感謝您對我們計劃的光明未來的所有支持和承諾。太感謝了。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。