Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone. Welcome to the Western Alliance Bancorporation Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. You may also view the presentation today via webcast through the company's website at www.westernalliancebancorporation.com. I would now like to turn the call over to Miles Pondelik, Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Development. Please go ahead.

大家好。歡迎參加 Western Alliance Bancorporation 2022 年第三季財報電話會議。您也可以透過公司網站 www.westernalliancebancorporation.com 的網路直播觀看今天的示範。現在我想將電話轉給投資者關係和企業發展總監 Miles Pondelik。請繼續。

Thank you and welcome to Western Alliance Banks third quarter 2022 Conference Call. Our speakers today are Ken Vecchione, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Dale Gibbons, Chief Financial Officer.

感謝您並歡迎參加西部聯盟銀行 2022 年第三季電話會議。我們今天的演講者是總裁兼執行長 Ken Vecchione；以及財務長戴爾吉本斯 (Dale Gibbons)。

Before I hand the call over to Ken, please note that today's presentation contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Except as required by law, the company does not take any obligation to update any forward-looking statements. For a more complete discussion of the risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from any forward-looking statements. Please refer to the company's SEC filings, including the Form 8-K filed yesterday, which are available on the company's website.

在我將電話交給肯之前，請注意，今天的演示包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險、不確定性和假設的影響。除法律要求外，本公司不承擔更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。更全面地討論可能導致實際結果與任何前瞻性陳述有重大差異的風險和不確定性。請參閱該公司向美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 提交的文件，包括昨天提交的 8-K 表格，這些文件可在公司網站上查閱。

Now for opening remarks, I'd like to turn the call over to Ken Vecchione.

現在，作為開場發言，我想將電話交給 Ken Vecchione。

Thanks, Miles. This quarter, the company continued its strong financial performance as our diversified national commercial bank again delivered record net interest income, PPNR and earnings, complemented by strong deposit and loan growth, supporting higher net interest margin with stable asset quality. For the third quarter, Western Alliance generated record total net revenues of $664 million, net income of $264 million and EPS of $2.42. Earnings were propelled by accelerating net interest income quarterly growth of $77 million or 15% from the prior quarter to $602 million as the rising rate environment expanded our net interest margin 24 basis points to 3.78%.

謝謝，邁爾斯。本季度，該公司繼續保持強勁的財務表現，作為一家多元化的全國性商業銀行，公司再次實現了創紀錄的淨利息收入、PPNR 和收益，再加上強勁的存款和貸款增長，支持了更高的淨息差和穩定的資產質量。第三季度，西部聯盟淨營收總額創歷史新高，達到 6.64 億美元，淨利達 2.64 億美元，每股收益達 2.42 美元。由於利率上升環境將我們的淨利差擴大了 24 個基點至 3.78%，淨利息收入季度增長 7,700 萬美元（比上一季增長 15%）至 6.02 億美元，推動了盈利增長。

We made industry-leading performance with return on average assets and return on average tangible common equity of 1.53% and 24.9%, respectively, which will continue to support building capital levels in the quarters to come. Sound balance sheet expansion continued with quarterly loan growth of $3.6 billion or 7.5% quarter-over-quarter and deposits rose by $1.9 billion or 3.5% quarterly, mostly from noninterest-bearing DDA accounts. Loan demand remained healthy with 27% of growth coming from our regional banking divisions and 50% from national business lines.

我們取得了業界領先的業績，平均資產回報率和平均有形普通股權益回報率分別為 1.53% 和 24.9%，這將繼續支持未來幾季的資本水準建設。穩健的資產負債表繼續擴張，季度貸款增長 36 億美元，環比增長 7.5%，存款增加 19 億美元，環比增長 3.5%，其中大部分來自無息 DDA 帳戶。貸款需求保持健康，其中 27% 的成長來自我們的區域銀行部門，50% 的成長來自全國業務線。

Deposit growth of $1.9 billion trailed strong loan growth this quarter. In Q3, our regional banking divisions contributed 32% of deposit growth, and our specialized deposit franchises added 63%. We are proud that one of our new deposit business lines, business escrow services is gaining meaningful traction and contributed $424 million this quarter. We expect business escrow services, settlement services and other deposit initiatives to meaningfully contribute to growth and continue to enhance our funding profile in 2023.

本季，存款成長 19 億美元，但貸款成長卻較為強勁。第三季度，我們的區域銀行部門貢獻了 32% 的存款成長，我們的專業存款特許經營權貢獻了 63%。我們感到自豪的是，我們的一項新存款業務線——商業託管服務正在獲得顯著發展，並在本季度貢獻了 4.24 億美元。我們預計商業託管服務、結算服務和其他存款計劃將在 2023 年為成長做出重大貢獻並繼續增強我們的融資狀況。

Mortgage banking-related income declined $35 million as the origination market continues to face major market disruption. The speed and level to which rates have climbed have greatly reduced refinance activity and restrained affordability of the purchase market. Provision revenue was negatively impacted by a $22 million MSR hedge loss driven by volatility that spiked towards the back end of the quarter.

由於發起市場持續面臨重大市場混亂，抵押貸款銀行相關收入下降了 3,500 萬美元。利率上升的速度和水準大大減少了再融資活動並抑制了購買市場的承受能力。由於本季末波動性加劇，導致 MSR 對沖損失達 2,200 萬美元，對撥備收入產生了負面影響。

We have positioned AmeriHome to properly operate in a lower origination market focused on becoming the industry leading low-cost operator and have implemented a strategy to prioritize profitability against volume market share. Finally, asset quality continues to remain in great shape, and we do not see issues on the horizon. For the quarter, Wells recorded net loan recoveries of $1.9 billion or negative 2 basis points. And year-to-date, we are in a net recovery position.

我們已將 AmeriHome 定位為在較低發起市場中正確運營，專注於成為行業領先的低成本運營商，並實施了優先考慮盈利能力而非市場份額的戰略。最後，資產品質持續保持良好狀態，我們認為未來不會出現任何問題。本季度，富國銀行的淨貸款回收額為 19 億美元，即負 2 個基點。今年迄今為止，我們處於淨復甦狀態。

At this point, Dale will take you through our financial performance.

現在，戴爾將向您介紹我們的財務表現。

For the quarter, Western Alliance generated net income of $264 million, EPS $2.42 and PPNR of $358 million. Excluding the $2.8 million mark-to-market loss on preferred securities and a $4 million charge related to severance and other compensation charges primarily at AmeriHome, our EPS was $2.47 and 13% higher on a linked quarter annualized basis. Additionally, loan growth of $1.3 billion in excess of consensus added approximately $10 million in incremental provisions, which is front-loaded due to CECL. Total provision expense of $28.5 million also captures our somewhat softer outlook on the economy.

本季度，西部聯盟淨收入為 2.64 億美元，每股收益為 2.42 美元，PPNR 為 3.58 億美元。不包括優先證券的 280 萬美元按市價計價損失以及主要與 AmeriHome 相關的 400 萬美元遣散費和其他補償費用，我們的每股收益為 2.47 美元，按環比年化率計算增長 13%。此外，超過共識的 13 億美元貸款成長增加了約 1000 萬美元的增量準備金，這是由於 CECL 而預付的。 2850萬美元的總撥備支出也反映出我們對經濟的展望略顯疲軟。

Total net revenue of $664 million was an increase of $44 million during the quarter and $115 million or 21% year-over-year. Net interest income increased by 15% from Q2 to $602 million which was driven by loan growth and further NIM expansion. Overall, noninterest income declined $33 million to $62 million from the prior quarter due to lower mortgage banking-related income, which fell $35 million to $37.5 million. Gain on sale revenue was $14.5 million due to lower purchase volumes, while servicing fell to $23 million as volatility rose, which led to an MSR hedge loss late in the quarter.

本季總淨收入為 6.64 億美元，比去年同期增加 4,400 萬美元，比去年同期增加 1.15 億美元，增幅為 21%。淨利息收入較第二季成長 15%，達到 6.02 億美元，這得益於貸款成長和 NIM 進一步擴大。總體而言，非利息收入較上一季下降 3,300 萬美元至 6,200 萬美元，原因是抵押貸款銀行相關收入下降 3,500 萬美元至 3,750 萬美元。由於購買量下降，銷售收入收益為 1,450 萬美元，而由於波動性上升，服務收入下降至 2,300 萬美元，導致本季末出現 MSR 對沖損失。

While the mortgage industry has made strides in rightsizing overcapacity to adjust to lower volumes in a higher rate environment, this process is ongoing and normalized margins have not yet returned. Noninterest expense increased 13.7% or $37 million, resulting in an efficiency ratio of 45.5%, primarily due to higher deposit costs related to earnings credit. If the efficiency ratio was adjusted to reclassify deposit costs as interest expense, it would be 40.5% as remaining operating expenses were flat.

雖然抵押貸款行業在調整過剩產能以適應較高利率環境下的較低交易量方面取得了長足進步，但這一過程仍在進行中，正常化的利潤率尚未恢復。非利息支出增加了 13.7% 或 3,700 萬美元，導致效率比率達到 45.5%，這主要是由於與收益信貸相關的存款成本增加。如果調整效率比率，將存款成本重新歸類為利息支出，則效率比率將為 40.5%，因為其餘營運支出保持不變。

Turning now to net interest drivers. Our growing asset-sensitive balance sheet benefited from the rising rate environment. Investment yields increased 72 basis points from the prior quarter to $3.66 is variable rate securities repriced. On a linked quarter basis, loan yields increased 65 basis points with an end-of-quarter spot rate of 5.43%. Loans held for sale benefited from rising mortgage rates to increased 88 basis points to 4.87%. Total funding costs, including borrowings and deposits increased 50 basis points to 88 basis points with this broad rate of 1.12% as the average rates and balances for deposits rose. Short-term borrowings and credit linked notes also climb.

現在來談談淨利息驅動因素。我們不斷成長的資產敏感型資產負債表受益於利率上升的環境。投資收益率較上一季增加 72 個基點，達到 3.66 美元（重新定價的浮動利率證券）。以季度計算，貸款殖利率上升65個基點，季末即期利率為5.43%。持有待售貸款受惠於抵押貸款利率上升而增加 88 個基點至 4.87%。由於存款平均利率和餘額上升，包括借款和存款在內的總融資成本增加了 50 個基點，達到 88 個基點，廣義利率為 1.12%。短期借款和信用掛鉤票據也有所增加。

Long-term debt expense increased $13.5 million this quarter due to $940 million in total CLNs we have issued program to date, which has preserved nearly $400 million in equity capital and minimized stock issuance. The higher interest expense and a little capital issuance also provides credit protection on 24% of our loan book. As mentioned earlier, net interest income growth of $77 million or 15% linked quarter benefited from average interest-earning asset growth of $3.8 billion and NIM expansion of 24 basis points to 3.78%. Interest income grew 32% more quarter-over-quarter than our total funding costs, inclusive of ECR expenses as we remain asset sensitive.

本季長期債務支出增加了 1,350 萬美元，原因是我們迄今為止已發行的 CLN 總額為 9.4 億美元，這保留了近 4 億美元的股本並最大限度地減少了股票發行。較高的利息支出和少量的資本發行也為我們 24% 的貸款提供了信用保護。如前所述，淨利息收入環比增長 7,700 萬美元或 15%，得益於平均生息資產增長 38 億美元以及 NIM 擴大 24 個基點至 3.78%。由於我們仍然對資產敏感，利息收入比我們的總融資成本（包括 ECR 費用）比去年同期成長 32%。

Our rate shock analysis shows with a 100-basis point rise for 12 months and on a static balance sheet, net interest income is expected to lift 6%. Using the same scenario on our growth balance sheet, we expect net interest income to grow over 15%. Reviewing the effect of a 200-basis point shock on a growth balance sheet, net interest income is expected to rise over 25% over the 12 months from the current run rate. Our efficiency ratio increased 270 basis points to 45.5%. after reclassifying deposit cost and interest expense, it improved from 41.1% in the second quarter to 40.5% in the third, demonstrating the high operating leverage of the company.

我們的利率衝擊分析顯示，如果利率在 12 個月內上升 100 個基點，並且在靜態資產負債表上，淨利息收入預計將增加 6%。在我們的成長資產負債表上使用相同的情景，我們預計淨利息收入將增加 15% 以上。回顧 200 個基點衝擊對成長型資產負債表的影響，預計 12 個月內淨利息收入將比目前營運率成長 25% 以上。我們的效率比率提高了270個基點，達到45.5%。重新分類存款成本和利息支出後，由第二季的41.1%改善至第三季的40.5%，反映該公司的營運槓桿較高。

Deposit costs increased $38 million from the prior quarter due to higher earnings credit rates on deposits of $15.9 billion, of which, $11.3 billion is in noninterest-bearing DDA. Pre-provision net revenue rose to a record $358 million during the quarter, a 14% increase from the same period last year and an increase of $7 million or 2% from the prior quarter. This resulted in PPNR ROA of 208, a decline of 11 basis points compared to 219 last quarter. While leading organic capital generation produces approximately 45 basis points in CET1 capital on a static balance sheet per quarter and provide significant financial flexibility to fund balance sheet growth or build capital ratios.

存款成本較上一季增加了 3,800 萬美元，原因是 159 億美元存款的收益信貸利率上升，其中 113 億美元為無息 DDA。本季撥備前淨收入增至創紀錄的 3.58 億美元，比去年同期增長 14%，比上一季增加 700 萬美元，增幅為 2%。這導致 PPNR ROA 為 208，與上一季的 219 相比下降了 11 個基點。領先的有機資本產生每季在靜態資產負債表上產生約 45 個基點的 CET1 資本，並提供顯著的財務靈活性來資助資產負債表成長或建立資本比率。

Balance sheet momentum continued during the quarter as loans held for investment increased $3.6 billion to $52.2 billion and deposit growth of $1.9 billion or balances to $55.6 billion at quarter end. Mortgage servicing rights balances increased $218 million during the quarter to $1 billion, in part from declining prepayment fees.

本季資產負債表持續保持強勁勢頭，投資貸款增加 36 億美元，達到 522 億美元，存款增加 19 億美元，即季末餘額達到 556 億美元。本季抵押貸款服務權餘額增加了 2.18 億美元，達到 10 億美元，部分原因是預付費用下降。

Total borrowings increased $1.1 billion over the prior quarter to $7.2 billion, primarily due to an increase in short-term borrowings to fund loan growth in excess of deposit expansion. Tangible book value per share increased $0.49 or 1.3% over the prior quarter to $37.16, primarily due to strong organic earnings that offset unrealized marks on available for sale securities recorded in AOCI. Tangible book value increased 7.2% over the prior year.

總借款較上一季增加 11 億美元，達到 72 億美元，主要由於短期借款增加，用於資助貸款成長超過存款擴張。每股有形帳面價值較上一季增加 0.49 美元或 1.3%，達到 37.16 美元，主要由於強勁的有機收益抵消了 AOCI 中記錄的可供出售證券的未實現利潤。有形帳面價值較上年成長7.2%。

This quarter, we generated sound organic growth for our national business lines and regional banking divisions. Loans held for investment grew $3.6 billion, driven by $1.6 billion in C&I loans, $893 million in sponsor backed commercial real estate and $766 million in resi real estate. C&I growth was driven by $534 million in tech and innovation, $392 million in warehouse lending and $350 million in capital call lending. 43% of our loan growth this quarter came from our core very low to no loss national business lines.

本季度，我們的全國業務線和區域銀行部門實現了良好的有機成長。投資貸款增加了 36 億美元，其中，16 億美元的 C&I 貸款、8.93 億美元的贊助商支持的商業房地產貸款和 7.66 億美元的住宅房地產貸款佔比最大。 C&I 的成長得益於 5.34 億美元的技術和創新、3.92 億美元的倉庫貸款和 3.5 億美元的資本通知貸款。本季度，我們 43% 的貸款成長來自我們核心的、損失極低或無損失的全國業務線。

Turning to deposits. We continue to experience growth across our diversified funding channels. This quarter, our regional banking divisions generated approximately 32% of our net deposit growth, while specialty positive NBLs drove the remainder. In total, deposits grew $1.9 billion or 13.9% annualized in the third quarter with noninterest-bearing DDA up $1.2 billion, CDs $533 million, and savings and money market $176 million. Noninterest-bearing DDAs now comprise 45% of our total deposit mix of which 55% or $13.6 billion have no associated earnings credit rate.

談到存款。我們多角化的融資管道持續成長。本季度，我們的區域銀行部門貢獻了約 32% 的淨存款成長，其餘則由專業的正向 NBL 推動。總體而言，第三季存款成長了 19 億美元，年化成長率為 13.9%，其中無息 DDA 成長了 12 億美元，CD 成長了 5.33 億美元，儲蓄和貨幣市場成長了 1.76 億美元。無息 DDA 目前占我們總存款組合的 45%，其中 55% 或 136 億美元沒有相關的收益信用率。

Our diversified deposit franchise continues to provide ample opportunities to generate attractive funding to support loan growth with warehouse lending up $1.2 billion, regional banking divisions up $604 million and business escrow services up $424 million. Business escrow services has continued to establish new relationships with large corporate acquirers, attorneys and private investment firms that support the growth ramp this quarter. Going forward, we expect our scalable national deposit businesses such as HOA, settlement services and business escrow to continue to generate attractive deposits to fund ongoing balance sheet growth and temper the impact of elevated rates on our overall funding costs.

我們的多元化存款業務繼續提供充足的機會來產生有吸引力的資金，以支持貸款成長，其中倉庫貸款增加 12 億美元，區域銀行部門增加 6.04 億美元，商業託管服務增加 4.24 億美元。商業託管服務繼續與大型企業收購者、律師和私人投資公司建立新的關係，以支持本季的成長。展望未來，我們預計可擴展的全國存款業務（如 HOA、結算服務和業務託管）將繼續產生有吸引力的存款，為持續的資產負債表增長提供資金，並緩和利率上升對我們整體融資成本的影響。

Our asset quality remains stable and strong as classified and nonperforming assets as a percentage of total assets are still lower than pre-pandemic levels. Total classified assets increased $39 million in Q3 to $385 million or 56 basis points of total assets. Subsequent to quarter end, approximately half of this increase in classified has been resolved and we see nothing to demonstrate a trend. Total nonperforming assets to total assets remained stable at 15 basis points, and we realized net recoveries of $1.9 million.

我們的資產品質保持穩定和強勁，分類資產和不良資產佔總資產的比例仍然低於疫情前的水平。第三季度，分類資產總額增加了 3,900 萬美元，達到 3.85 億美元，佔總資產的 56 個基點。季度末之後，大約一半的分類廣告成長問題已經解決，我們沒有發現任何趨勢。不良資產總額與總資產的比率保持穩定在 15 個基點，我們實現了 190 萬美元的淨回收。

Special mention loans decreased $5 million during the quarter to 60 basis points of funded loans, which represents a further decline from already historical lows last quarter. As the prospects for additional economic volatility continue to evolve, we believe our underwriting discipline borne out through that our national business line strategies has prepared us for any credit stress that may accompany additional macro headwinds. However, we have not observed any preliminary signs to credit migration or client pressure. We believe our safe and sound asset quality decisions will dictate our thoughtful, diversified loan growth trajectory and enable us to navigate through heightened economic uncertainty.

本季特別提及貸款減少了 500 萬美元，至已發放貸款的 60 個基點，比上一季的歷史低點進一步下降。隨著經濟波動前景的不斷變化，我們相信，我們的核保紀律已得到證實，我們的全國業務線策略已為我們做好了應對可能伴隨額外宏觀逆風的任何信貸壓力的準備。然而，我們尚未觀察到任何信貸遷移或客戶壓力的初步跡象。我們相信，我們安全且穩健的資產品質決策將決定我們深思熟慮、多樣化的貸款成長軌跡，並使我們能夠度過日益加劇的經濟不確定性。

Approximately 55% of our loans are now in low to no loss categories and 24% of the portfolio is credit protected through government guarantees, CLM first loss, or is cash secured. Quarterly net recoveries were $1.9 million, 2 basis points of average loans, which brought us through a net recovery position on a year-to-date basis. Our total loan ACL increased $29 million from the prior quarter to $356 million and is now greater than our pandemic high watermark that was set in 2020.

目前，我們的貸款中約有 55% 屬於低損失或無損失類別，24% 的貸款組合透過政府擔保、CLM 首次損失或現金擔保獲得信用保護。季度淨回收金額為 190 萬美元，佔平均貸款的 2 個基點，這使我們年初至今處於淨回收狀態。我們的貸款總額 ACL 較上一季增加了 2,900 萬美元，達到 3.56 億美元，現已超過 2020 年疫情期間創下的最高水位。

Year-to-date, our ACL has increased by $66 million. Total loan ACL to funded loans remained flat quarter-over-quarter at 68 basis points, while our ACL to nonperforming loans rose from 385% in the prior quarter to 396% this quarter. Adjusting for the $10.8 billion of loans covered by credit linked notes, where ample first loss coverage is assumed by a third party. These coverage ratio rises to 86 basis points. We believe these superior asset quality trends are sustainable throughout economic cycles due to Western Alliance's deliberate post-GFC business transformation strategy to become a national commercial bank, focused on deep underwriting specialization and greater business diversification. While national reach and deep segment expertise enables selective relationships with the strongest counterparties on the go to attractive projects with superior company risk management.

今年迄今為止，我們的 ACL 已增加了 6,600 萬美元。總貸款 ACL 與已發放貸款之比與上一季持平，為 68 個基點，而我們的 ACL 與不良貸款之比從上一季的 385% 上升至本季度的 396%。調整信用掛鉤票據所涵蓋的 108 億美元貸款，其中充足的首次損失承保由第三方承擔。此覆蓋率上升至86個基點。我們相信，這些優良的資產品質趨勢在整個經濟週期中都是可持續的，因為西方聯盟在全球金融危機後精心製定了業務轉型策略，即成為全國性商業銀行，專注於深度承保專業化和更大的業務多元化。全國範圍的覆蓋和深厚的細分市場專業知識使我們能夠與實力最強的交易對手建立選擇性關係，以卓越的公司風險管理開展有吸引力的項目。

During the global financial crisis, 67% of West Alliance's losses came from loan categories comprising 44% of the 2009 loan portfolio, which today makes up less than 6% of total loans. Western Alliance has spent the last decade working to minimize these risks and diversify the business. We view a primary impediment to a higher stock valuation as misplaced concern about the credit risk heading into elected recession. Cumulative net charge-offs for the past decade have totaled only $27 million against $356 million current reserves. 55% of our loan book is in to low to no loss categories.

在全球金融危機期間，西聯銀行 67% 的損失來自 2009 年貸款組合 44% 的貸款類別，而如今這些貸款在貸款總額中所佔比例不到 6%。西方聯盟在過去十年致力於將這些風險降至最低並實現業務多元化。我們認為，股票估值上升的主要障礙是對陷入選擇性衰退的信貸風險的錯誤擔憂。過去十年的累計淨沖銷總額僅 2,700 萬美元，而目前儲備金為 3.56 億美元。我們的貸款中有 55% 屬於低損失或無損失類別。

Lastly, the intended consequence of the credit-linked notes issuance has 24% of the whole portfolio credit protected. We know of no other bank that can make this fight. Excellent asset quality has been a hallmark of the new wall, rapid improvement drove ratios due to the top quartile where they have essentially held even through the height of the pandemic. Classified and nonaccrual loans continue to hold below peers, while charge-offs have been minimal with the net recovery recognized year-to-date. Nonaccruals and net charge-offs have consistently ranked as 1 among the best in the industry and the classified loans in the top quartile even during the pandemic.

最後，發行信用掛鉤票據的預期結果是保護整個投資組合中 24% 的信用。據我們所知，沒有其他銀行能夠進行這樣的鬥爭。優良的資產品質一直是新牆的標誌，快速的改善推動了比率的提高，因為即使在疫情最嚴重的時候，它們基本上也保持在前四分位數。分類貸款和非應計貸款繼續低於同行，而沖銷額很少，年初至今已實現淨回收。即使在疫情期間，不提列壞帳和淨沖銷額也一直位居業界前列，分類貸款也位居前四分之一。

Our credit risk mitigation expertise shined during 2020 and 2021 and will be critical if the economy weakens further. A hallmark of Wells business model is that greater diversification leads to sustained superior earnings growth with reduced volatility. Similar to a traditional sharp ratio for stock returns, our risk-adjusted net income growth has been excellent relative to other large peers, among the 33 domestic publicly held -- publicly traded banks in the U.S. with assets between $25 billion and $150 billion, Wells has produced the highest risk adjusted average net income growth. While they weren't the leader in earnings growth or the lowest in earnings volatility separately, our combined strong and steady growth has produced the top risk-adjusted return. Given our industry-leading returns on equity and assets, we continue to generate significant capital to fund organic growth and maintain well-capitalized regulatory ratios.

我們的信用風險緩解專業知識在 2020 年和 2021 年大放異彩，如果經濟進一步疲軟，這將至關重要。富國銀行商業模式的一大特點是，更多元化的經營可以帶來持續的優異獲利成長，同時降低波動性。與傳統的股票回報率夏普比率類似，我們的風險調整後淨收入增長相對於其他大型同行而言非常出色，在美國 33 家資產規模在 250 億美元至 1500 億美元之間的國內上市公司中，富國銀行的風險調整後平均淨收入增長率最高。雖然我們並不是獲利成長的佼佼者，獲利波動性方面也不是最低的，但我們強勁而穩定的成長帶來了最高的風險調整回報。鑑於我們行業領先的股本和資產回報率，我們將繼續產生大量資本來資助有機成長並維持充足的資本監管比率。

Our tangible common equity with total assets of 5.9% and common equity Tier 1 ratio of 8.7% were both slightly lower than quarter-over-quarter. With AOCI dynamics impacting tangible book value ratios across the industry, we utilized our ATM to strengthen capital in addition to solid earnings. We do not anticipate any share issuance will be needed as CET1 builds throughout next year.

我們的有形普通股總資產為 5.9%，一級普通股比率為 8.7%，均比上一季略有下降。由於 AOCI 動態影響整個產業的有形帳面價值比率，我們利用 ATM 來增強資本並實現穩健的獲利。我們預計，隨著 CET1 明年的建立，不需要發行任何股票。

Finally, inclusive of our quarterly cash dividend payment of $0.36 per share, our tangible book value per share increased $0.49 or 1.3% quarter-over-quarter to $37.16, which is slightly above our Q1 level. Notably, our tangible book value has grown 19.4% annually since 2013, 3.5x the rate of the peer group.

最後，包括我們每股 0.36 美元的季度現金股息在內，我們的每股有形帳面價值環比增加 0.49 美元或 1.3%，達到 37.16 美元，略高於我們第一季的水平。值得注意的是，自 2013 年以來，我們的有形帳面價值每年增長 19.4%，是同業的 3.5 倍。

I'll now hand the call back to Ken for closing comments.

我現在將電話交還給肯，請他發表最後評論。

Thanks, Dale. I was pleased with the management team's ability to adapt to the changing interest rate and economic environment to produce record operating results. Thoughtful balance sheet growth in conjunction with operating and executional focus position the bank to capitalize on net interest income sensitivity while simultaneously growing both sides of the balance sheet with industry-leading performance. Our superior operating leverage offset the decline in mortgage banking income. Asset quality remains stable and solid with no signs of elevated stress. Organic earnings should grow capital as we reposition the company for slower growth ahead of a potential slowdown.

謝謝，戴爾。我很高興看到管理團隊能夠適應不斷變化的利率和經濟環境，並創造創紀錄的經營績效。周到的資產負債表增長與營運和執行重點相結合，使銀行能夠利用淨利息收入敏感性，同時以行業領先的業績實現資產負債表兩側的增長。我們卓越的經營槓桿抵消了抵押銀行收入的下降。資產品質保持穩定和穩固，沒有壓力加大的跡象。隨著我們在潛在經濟放緩之前重新定位公司以應對較慢的成長，有機收益應該會增加資本。

So let me tell you what you could expect going forward here. Given the uncertain future economic and operating environment, we believe it's prudent to prioritize more measured but still double-digit loan growth, targeting up to $1.5 billion per quarter. We plan to surgically reduce loan growth through increased pricing and tighter credit criteria while deemphasizing loan growth not accompanied by high-quality deposits. Deposits are expected to grow at approximately $2 billion a quarter. This will lower our loan-to-deposit ratio over time, which currently stands at 94%.

那麼讓我來告訴您接下來可以期待什麼。鑑於未來經濟和經營環境的不確定性，我們認為，優先考慮更有節制但仍保持兩位數的貸款成長是明智之舉，目標是每季達到 15 億美元。我們計劃透過提高定價和收緊信貸標準來精確地減少貸款成長，同時不再強調沒有高品質存款的貸款成長。預計每季存款將成長約 20 億美元。隨著時間的推移，這將降低我們的貸存比，目前該比率為 94%。

Our goal over the next year is to bolster key capital ratios back to pre-AmeriHome levels, including 10% CET1. Our bank industry-leading return on average tangible common equity produces significant organic capital of approximately 45 basis points of CET1 net of dividends per quarter, which provides us with significant flexibility to grow capital ratios and fund the balance sheet growth. We expect to achieve our 10% CET target by mid-2023, aided by restrained balance sheet growth and risk-weighted asset optimization programs.

我們明年的目標是將關鍵資本比率恢復到 AmeriHome 之前的水平，包括 10% 的 CET1。我們銀行業領先的平均有形普通股權益回報率產生了可觀的有機資本，每季扣除股息後，CET1 淨額約為 45 個基點，這為我們提高資本比率和為資產負債表增長提供資金提供了極大的靈活性。在抑制資產負債表成長和風險加權資產優化計畫的幫助下，我們預計到 2023 年中期將實現 10% 的 CET 目標。

Net interest margin is expected to continue to expand in Q4 at a similar pace to Q3, given the anticipated rising rate environment, we expect to continued -- we expect continued quarterly expansion of NIM and growth in net interest income throughout 2023, even after the Fed pauses rate increases as fixed rate securities and loans reprice and balance sheet growth continues. Total revenue should continue to decline due to strong net interest income with the drag from mortgage banking likely to moderate, assuming muted volatility. Our expense ratio, excluding the impact of deposit costs should remain in the low 40s given inherent operating leverage of our business.

鑑於預期的利率上升環境，我們預計淨息差將在第四季度繼續以與第三季度類似的速度擴大，即使在美聯儲暫停加息之後，由於固定利率證券和貸款重新定價以及資產負債表繼續增長，我們預計淨息差將持續季度擴大，2023 年全年淨利息收入也將持續增長。由於淨利息收入強勁，總收入應該會繼續下降，假設波動性較小，抵押貸款銀行業務的拖累可能會減弱。考慮到我們業務固有的經營槓桿，我們的費用率（不包括存款成本的影響）應該保持在 40% 以下。

Asset quality remains well positioned and ranks among the industry's best. The technical recession, we believe we have entered may move some key ratios slightly higher, but we do not anticipate any material deterioration that would change our above peer standing. In conclusion, we continue to see an EPS of $9.80 for 2022 as a launching pad for which 2023 EPS can ascend. At this time, while we're happy to take your questions, and I should have also said that Tim Bruckner, our Chief Credit Officer, is with us here today as well.

資產品質保持良好，位居行業前列。我們認為，我們已經進入技術性衰退，這可能會使一些關鍵比率略有上升，但我們預計不會出現任何會改變我們高於同業地位的重大惡化。總之，我們繼續認為 2022 年每股收益 9.80 美元是 2023 年每股收益上升的起點。此時，我們很高興回答您的問題，我還應該說，我們的首席信貸官 Tim Bruckner 今天也和我們在一起。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Your first question is from Casey Haire from Jefferies.

您的第一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Casey Haire。

I want to get some color on the comments about NIM expanding through next year. Obviously, if you -- it sounds like you're going to be a little bit more selective on the loan growth front, which could help on the yield side. But it does obviously seem a little bit tougher on the deposit betas and the funding pressure there. So what kind of -- and I know you guys don't manage the deposit betas, but what kind of deposit beta is in your forecast that is still allowing you to just drive NIM expansion through next year?

我想對 NIM 明年擴張的評論進行一些說明。顯然，如果你——聽起來你會在貸款成長方面更加挑剔，這可能會對收益率有所幫助。但顯然，對於存款測試版和資金壓力而言，這確實顯得有些困難。那麼什麼樣的——我知道你們不管理存款貝塔，但你們預測什麼樣的存款貝塔仍然允許你們在明年推動 NIM 擴張？

Okay. So we'll tag team this. Let me start off and then I'll throw it over to Dale. I just want to make sure we're clear that for Q4 and through 2023, we are projecting a growing and vibrant net interest income using the consensus FOMC forecast. So net interest income and NIM will continue to grow into 2023 even after the FOMC concludes raising rates.

好的。因此我們將組隊進行此項工作。讓我先開始，然後將其交給戴爾。我只是想確保我們清楚，根據 FOMC 的一致預測，我們預計第四季度及整個 2023 年的淨利息收入將會成長且充滿活力。因此，即使在聯邦公開市場委員會決定升息之後，淨利息收入和淨利差仍將在 2023 年繼續成長。

And we feel comfortable with this forecast for several reasons. Number one, the increase or excess liquidity that we're going to get from having deposits grow faster than loan growth will drive federal home loan bank borrowings downward, lowering funding costs. Second, current and future loan growth is being priced at higher levels as we've seen liquidity withdrawn from the banking system. Third item is $1.5 billion of loans repriced every quarter with about 50% rolling over at higher spreads, and our fixed rate securities and loans totaling $800 million also repriced quarterly, which we see -- we think we can get some benefit from.

由於多種原因，我們對這項預測感到滿意。首先，存款成長速度快於貸款成長速度所帶來的增加或過剩流動性將推動聯邦房屋貸款銀行借款下降，進而降低融資成本。其次，由於我們看到銀行體系流動性的抽離，當前和未來的貸款成長被定價在更高的水平。第三項是每季重新定價 15 億美元的貸款，其中約 50% 的貸款以更高的利差展期，我們的總額為 8 億美元的固定利率證券和貸款也每季重新定價，我們認為我們可以從中獲得一些好處。

The other thing I would say is, since my return to the company, taking over as CEO, we focused on net interest income rather than net interest margin rate. And then focusing on net interest income allows us to also produce the EPS results that we have achieved. And so in our mind, what we have done is, going forward, we have priced 100% deposit beta with 100% loan beta. And we kind of see the spreads, which have been materially increasing for us, certainly since the beginning of Q3, but even before that, to carry us for the rest of the year. Dale, do you want to add anything to that?

我想說的另一件事是，自從我重返公司並擔任執行長以來，我們關注的是淨利息收入，而不是淨利息保證金率。然後專注於淨利息收入使我們能夠產生我們所取得的每股盈餘結果。因此，在我們看來，我們所做的就是，展望未來，我們將為 100% 的存款貝塔和 100% 的貸款貝塔進行定價。我們看到利差大幅增加，當然是從第三季開始的，但即使在此之前，利差也將支撐我們度過今年剩餘的時間。戴爾，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Sure. Yes, Casey, so we have lower levels of interest-bearing deposits and other funding sources, borrowings and CLNs than we do in terms of interest asset earning loans and securities. And that's primarily because of our DDA that has no ECR to mention that is $13.6 billion. And so we're okay bringing on high beta funding so long as it's going into 100% beta assets, and we're going to continue to see that. I think some of the other institutions have been challenged because they've actually held back on their deposit raising the deposit cost. They have consumer or something else, and they believe that it's going to withstand that and then they've been surprised. And so now they have betas in excess of 100, at least for some accounts, we haven't been there.

當然。是的，凱西，因此，我們的計息存款和其他資金來源、借款和 CLN 的水平低於計息資產貸款和證券的水平。這主要是因為我們的 DDA 沒有 ECR，值得一提的是，其金額為 136 億美元。因此，只要資金 100% 投入 beta 資產中，我們就可以接受高 beta 融資，我們會繼續看到這種情況。我認為其他一些機構也面臨挑戰，因為他們實際上抑制了存款，從而提高了存款成本。他們有消費者或其他東西，他們相信它會經受住考驗，然後他們感到驚訝。所以現在他們有超過 100 個測試版，至少對於某些帳戶來說，我們還沒有去過那裡。

We know what our funding looks like. We haven't relied that we can kind of sneak things by. And so we have been -- our pricing is right there in terms of where it needs to be. And what we're seeing in terms of our spot rates, it kind of confirms this. So for example, on our loan yield, our spot rate at the end of the second quarter was 4.51%. At the end of the third quarter was 5.43%, up 92 basis points. Meanwhile, for our funding costs, our deposits, living costs was up from 63 to 112, so up 51 basis points. And again, what we had during the second and third quarter is, we had loan yields tempered because we were floors were still active. That's not the case anymore. And so we see that picking up, and then we're going to have more dollars rolling over in terms of maturities.

我們知道我們的資金狀況。我們並不指望能夠偷偷摸摸地做事。所以我們的定價一直是符合需求的。而我們從現貨價格看到的情況也證實了這一點。例如，就我們的貸款收益率而言，第二季末的即期利率為 4.51%。三季末為5.43%，較去年同期上升92個基點。同時，我們的融資成本、存款、生活成本從 63 上升到 112，上漲了 51 個基點。再次強調，我們在第二季和第三季的情況是，我們的貸款收益率有所下降，因為我們的貸款利率仍然很活躍。現在情況已經不再如此了。因此，我們看到這種情況正在好轉，然後我們將有更多的美元在到期日滾動。

And right now, those fixed rate loans are about 300 basis points below the current offer rate that we would do today, that is going to reprice more than what we're going to see on liabilities because liability repricing for us hasn't lag.

目前，這些固定利率貸款比我們今天的報價利率低約 300 個基點，其重新定價幅度將超過我們將看到的負債利率，因為我們的負債重新定價並沒有滯後。

Case, I'm going to give you a quick story. I think everyone on the phone will like. And then I'm going to ask you for a pop quiz here, okay? We turned down 31 loans in our senior loan committee. Those alone is $25 million or greater, not because of credit. We like the credit a great deal. But we turned them down because of pricing. Either the initial price wasn't high enough or the step downs were coming down too quickly or we didn't like the floors, and we decided to move the floors up. And so here's your pop quiz. How did we do against 31 loans, we went back to the borrowers and asked them if they would accept the higher pricing level?

凱斯，我要跟你講一個簡短的故事。我想電話裡的每個人都會喜歡。然後我要請你在這裡做一個突擊測驗，好嗎？我們的高級貸款委員會拒絕了 31 筆貸款。光是這些就達到 2500 萬美元甚至更多，這並不是因為信用。我們非常喜歡這份榮譽。但我們因為價格原因拒絕了他們。要嘛是初始價格不夠高，要嘛是降價幅度太快，要嘛是我們不喜歡這些樓層，所以我們決定將樓層往上移。這是你的突擊測驗。針對 31 筆貸款，我們的表現如何？我們回到借款人那裡，詢問他們是否願意接受更高的定價水準？

Not very well.

不太好。

You're wrong. We went 100 for 100, 31 for 31, right, which...

你錯了。我們以 100 比 100 獲勝，以 31 比 31 獲勝，對吧，這…

They all took the higher price.

他們都接受了更高的價格。

A little bit -- 31 people came back and said, yes to the higher price, you're right. And that told us a few things. One, it makes us almost feel like you put your house on the market on day 1 and you sell it. First thing you say, "Oh my God, I -- he sold it too cheaply. So what we really determined from that -- and that was over a couple of week period when we went back and looked at the 31 loans, but what we really determined was liquidity is leaving the system, right? And 1 of the things that's natural for us and what's different for our bank versus others is that we try to be a bank for all seasons, and we try to remain open for all seasons.

有一點——31 個人回來說，對於更高的價格，你是對的。這告訴我們一些事情。首先，它讓我們感覺就像你在第一天就把房子放到市場上然後賣掉了。你首先會說：「天哪，他賣得太便宜了。」 所以我們真正確定的是——那是在幾週的時間裡，我們回頭查看了那31筆貸款，但我們真正確定的是，流動性正在從系統中流失，對吧？對我們來說，這很自然，也是我們銀行與其他銀行的不同之處，就是我們努力成為一家「四季皆宜」的銀行，並且我們努力在所有季節都保持開放。

Now that may mean that we tightened credit criteria, which we have. It may mean that we have some more equity in the deals which we have. And it may mean that we're asking for higher pricing. But we remain open. And 1 of the things -- 1 of the reasons you see the volume of loan volume continue to come in above what our previous guide has been is because we've developed this loyalty and people come to us because they know they can get a deal done and the incremental short-term costs or higher cost of funding doesn't compare to the longer-term value that they're getting. So I just wanted to -- you asked a simple question, and we decided to give you a long answer.

這可能意味著我們收緊了信貸標準，事實上我們也確實這麼做了。這可能意味著我們在現有的交易中擁有更多的股權。這可能意味著我們要要求更高的價格。但我們仍保持開放。其中之一——您看到貸款量持續高於我們先前的指導值的原因之一是，我們已經培養了這種忠誠度，人們來找我們是因為他們知道他們可以達成交易，而且增量的短期成本或更高的融資成本與他們獲得的長期價值無法相比。所以我只是想——你問了一個簡單的問題，我們決定給你一個詳細的答案。

Yes. No, no, I appreciate it. Okay. Just on the 10% CET1 target by midyear, is -- so that's -- is there anything that you're going to do that organically, right, just moderating the loan growth? Or is there -- and without the ATM, is there any like bond book runoff? Is that part of it or anything else that help you there on that in short order?

是的。不，不，我很感激。好的。就年中 10% 的 CET1 目標而言，--那麼--您是否會採取一些有機措施，例如緩和貸款成長？或者有沒有──如果沒有 ATM，是否會出現類似債券帳簿流失的情況？這是其中的一部分嗎？或者其他什麼可以幫助您在短時間內實現這一目標？

Well, there are 2 things that we're doing. Certainly, just repositioning our loan growth to up to $1.5 billion is going to help us probably grow net or 14 basis points per quarter. We generally do 45 basis points of organic growth, subtract out for the $1.5 billion. And that's how you get to 12-or-so basis points, quarter-by-quarter. The other thing is Tim Bruckner's sitting here with us, but he's led this reoptimization or optimization of our risk-weighted assets, specifically around unfunded commitments, and we expect that to grow as well. There may be a CLN note that you'll see, a deal happened, maybe this quarter or maybe in quarters 1 or 2.

嗯，我們正在做兩件事。當然，只要將我們的貸款成長重新定位到 15 億美元，就可能幫助我們實現淨成長或每季成長 14 個基點。我們一般會將 45 個基點的有機成長減去 15 億美元。這樣，每季就能達到 12 個基點左右的增幅。另一件事是 Tim Bruckner 和我們坐在一起，但他領導了我們風險加權資產的重新優化或優化，特別是圍繞無資金承諾，我們預計這也會成長。您可能會看到一份 CLN 說明，表示發生了一筆交易，可能是本季度，也可能是第 1 季或第 2 季。

And it's the combination of those things and a bunch of other smaller activities I just don't think are worthwhile going through at this time, that drive us to a 10% level. Q2, we think late is Q3. And it's all without -- you ask a very specific question. It's all without hitting the ATM.

正是這些因素以及我認為目前不值得進行的一些其他較小活動的結合，推動我們達到了 10% 的水平。 Q2，我們認為Q3比較晚。這一切都不需要你提出一個非常具體的問題。這一切都不需要使用 ATM 機。

Your next question comes from Ethan Kariwala from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ethan Kariwala。

Okay. Ebrahim here. I guess just maybe going back to comments around $2 billion plus in the growth, some perspective around your comfort around there. Obviously, there's a lot of concern around the industry, around deposit pricing, deposit growth. So like your conviction level in meeting those deposit growth numbers, and then how should we think about its impact on deposit costs and mix shift as we think through 2023?

好的。這裡是易卜拉欣。我想也許可以回到關於 20 億美元以上增長的評論，談談您對這方面的舒適度的看法。顯然，人們對該行業、存款定價和存款成長非常擔憂。那麼，您對實現這些存款成長數字的信心程度如何？那麼，當我們考慮 2023 年時，我們應該如何看待它對存款成本和組合變化的影響？

We're going to split this 1 off and tag team it as well. I'll take the volume side. Dale will take the cost side. And so if I heard you clearly enough, and correct me if I'm wrong here, you really want to know what gives us the confidence around the $2 billion, right?

我們要把這個 1 分開，並將其標記成團隊。我將選擇音量方面。戴爾將站在成本方面。因此，如果我聽得足夠清楚（如果我錯了請糾正我），您真的想知道是什麼讓我們對 20 億美元有信心，對嗎？

Well, we've been running that and then some on that if you go back looking at our history. But we've got several deposit franchises that are very strong. We have our HOA business, okay? That's strong. Settlement services is something we started to build in 2018. We rolled out in 2019. It now has $3 billion of deposits. And so going back a couple of years, when everyone -- when I say everyone, the other banks that, gee, we don't want any more deposits. We always said, no, deposit franchises will really determine what our market capitalization will be in the future and how well we perform. So we rolled out settlement services. We rolled out business escrow services. We also have a tech business that produces $3 of deposits for every $1 in loans. Warehouse lending has also been a very strong provider of deposit growth.

好吧，如果你回顧我們的歷史，你會發現我們一直在運行這個，而且還在運行一些其他的內容。但我們已經擁有幾家實力雄厚的存款特許經營權。我們有 HOA 業務，好嗎？太強了。我們從 2018 年開始建構結算服務，並於 2019 年全面推出。目前該服務已擁有 30 億美元的存款。回顧幾年前，當每個人——當我說每個人時，其他銀行都說，哎呀，我們不想再有任何存款了。我們總是說，不，存款特許經營權將真正決定我們未來的市值以及我們的表現如何。因此我們推出了結算服務。我們推出了商業託管服務。我們還有一家科技公司，每發放 1 美元貸款就能產生 3 美元的存款。倉庫貸款也是存款成長的一個非常強大的推動力。

And I want to bring you back to AmeriHome for a moment. This is very important. When we bought AmeriHome, we said, we bought it because we saw an emerging regional bank. In the 7 quarters that we've owned AmeriHome, we've taken AmeriHomes deposits from a standing start of 0 to $7 billion, $7 billion in 7 quarters, right? I would tell you not to extrapolate that going forward. But it goes to show you that, that $7 billion really sat -- it really sits on the bank side of the of the company and has been generating that incremental interest income from us. So those are the growth channels. You want to take the cost side, Dale?

我想讓你們暫時回到 AmeriHome。這非常重要。當我們收購 AmeriHome 時，我們說，我們收購它是因為我們看到了一家新興的區域銀行。在我們擁有 AmeriHome 的 7 個季度中，我們已經將 AmeriHomes 的存款從 0 增加到了 70 億美元，7 個季度就達到了 70 億美元，對嗎？我要告訴你，以後不要再做這樣的推論。但它向你表明，這 70 億美元實際上是存放在公司的銀行帳戶中，並一直在從我們這裡產生增量利息收入。這些就是成長管道。戴爾，你想從成本角度考慮嗎？

Yes. So on the cost side, I'll note, we talked about that we brought in $420 million of -- in deposits from business escrow services. Well, $300 million of that is in non-ECR DDA. So that should help us on the cost side, and we're getting traction there. I got to tell you, we've got an application pending with the OCC to commence a corporate trust operation. We think that, that is likely to kick off this particular time. We hired a team from Wells Fargo after they sold their operation, and we think that's going to be a source of funding for us also kind of going forward. And then in terms of deposits.

是的。因此，在成本方面，我要指出的是，我們談到了從商業託管服務中引入 4.2 億美元的存款。其中 3 億美元是非 ECR DDA。因此，這應該會在成本方面對我們有所幫助，而且我們正在獲得推動力。我必須告訴你，我們已經向美國貨幣監理署提交了一份申請，準備開始一項企業信託業務。我們認為，這很可能在此時開始。富國銀行出售其業務後，我們聘請了一支團隊，我們認為這也將成為我們未來的資金來源。然後是存款方面。

So again, we're there that we're not trying to necessarily wrestle that everything has to come in at super cheap, standard rates or not market rates. But we have the ability and we've demonstrated this to bring in funds consistently. I would say our pipelines going forward are at least as good as what they've been in the past couple of quarters. And it has been a little harder than we thought. We did exceed loan growth versus deposit growth. We're rightsizing that from Q4 forward.

所以，我們再次強調，我們並不一定試圖爭取讓所有東西都以超低價、標準價格或非市場價格出售。但我們有能力並且已經證明我們可以持續獲得資金。我想說，我們未來的管道至少與過去幾個季度一樣好。這比我們想像的要困難一些。我們的貸款成長確實超過了存款成長。我們將從第四季開始調整規模。

Let me just tie it back to a question that Casey asked as well and tie it back to net interest income. If you don't have loan growth, it's harder to bring in deposit growth because that deposit growth is coming in at a very high incremental cost to it. We have the ability to grow loans in excess of $1.5 billion, and you've seen that, right? And so the fact that we can match off deposit growth at a marginal rate compared -- with 100% beta to it, compared to 100% beta on the loan side allows us to make the spread. And as we've said, we've increased those spreads. So that's what kind of gives us the benefits.

讓我將其與 Casey 提出的問題聯繫起來，並將其與淨利息收入聯繫起來。如果沒有貸款成長，那麼就很難實現存款成長，因為存款成長的增量成本非常高。我們有能力增加超過 15 億美元的貸款，您已經看到了，對嗎？因此，我們可以以邊際利率匹配存款成長——與貸款方 100% 的貝塔值相比，這使我們能夠實現利差。正如我們所說，我們已經增加了這些利差。這就是帶給我們好處的事情。

And again, I'll point you right back to -- and I don't think we get enough credit for this, and I'm going to start hopping on it, that our business model is different than almost every other bank's business model, and this is what our model allows us to do.

再次，我要提醒大家——我認為我們在這方面沒有得到足夠的讚揚，我要強調的是，我們的商業模式與幾乎所有其他銀行的商業模式都不同，而這正是我們的模式允許我們做到的。

Got it. As far as there's no (inaudible) I'm fine with that. And I guess just another follow-up question. Dale, you talked about credit costs. When you look at the ACL 86 basis points, what should that -- what is that embedding in terms of the macro, understanding your portfolio is very different if the economy is headed into a recession like where do you see that reserved building because that's the other piece of downside EPS risk as we think about the next few quarters?

知道了。只要沒有（聽不清楚）我就沒意見。我想這只是另一個後續問題。戴爾，你談到了信貸成本。當您查看 ACL 86 個基點時，那應該是什麼 - 從宏觀角度來看，這是什麼，如果經濟陷入衰退，理解您的投資組合將有很大不同，例如，您在哪裡看到那個保留的建築，因為那是我們考慮未來幾個季度的另一個下行 EPS 風險？

Yes. So we use the Moody's model like I think most do. We take weights but the preponderance is on the kind of consensus. And then we have a much heavier weight on S4 versus S1. And so as those numbers have become kind of more impaired as they did in third quarter over second, it did pull up a little bit more in terms of what an appropriate ACL would be. I would say, we're not expecting charge-offs to occur. And so long as we are right side up on LTV. And we're a low LTV lender across the board.

是的。因此，我們使用穆迪模型，我想大多數人都是這麼做的。我們考慮了權重，但主要還是基於共識的類型。因此，與 S1 相比，我們對 S4 的重視程度要大得多。因此，由於這些數據在第三季度相對於第二季度變得更加受損，因此就適當的 ACL 而言，它確實有所提升。我想說的是，我們不希望發生沖銷。只要我們的 LTV 是正確的。我們是一家全面低 LTV 貸款機構。

Our residential book is -- was underwritten at 65% but is now probably under 60% in terms of LTV. Our commercial real estate is done anywhere from 45% to about 65%. And so we feel strongly that -- and the Moody's model showed this that unless there's something really severe happening, we're going to be able to do well on that. And if I go forward back to the pandemic, we saw the hotel book and hotels clearly took a direct hit from travel during 2020 and 2021. And people were throwing numbers back at me in terms of what we're looking at in terms of losses. We didn't lose a dime in hotels, the entire time. Because we had good sponsorship, low loan to value, and we're -- and the type of loans we're doing. We weren't doing central business, big boxes, where people weren't coming anymore and that have very brittle cost structures in terms of not a lot of flexibility. These are like select service deals like residence in and then the hotels they close every other floor to hold their cost down and that worked, and it worked for us.

我們的住宅帳簿承保率為 65%，但現在 LTV 可能低於 60%。我們的商業房地產佔比在 45% 到 65% 左右。因此，我們強烈感覺到——穆迪的模型表明，除非發生真正嚴重的事情，否則我們將能夠很好地應對。如果回顧疫情，我們可以看到，2020 年和 2021 年期間，飯店預訂量和飯店業務明顯受到了旅遊業的直接打擊。人們向我提供了一些數字，告訴我我們正在考慮哪些損失。整個過程中，我們在酒店方面沒有損失一分錢。因為我們有良好的贊助、較低的貸款價值，以及我們正在做的貸款類型。我們沒有做中央商務區，大型倉儲式商店，那裡的人不再來了，而且成本結構非常脆弱，彈性不高。這些就像是選擇服務交易，例如住宅和酒店，他們每隔一層關閉一層，以降低成本，這種方法很有效，對我們來說也很有效。

Got it. And just to make sure that I heard you correctly. I think you mentioned full year EPS $9.80 into about $2.78 EPS run rate for fourth quarter. Do you believe you can grow earnings off of that in anything?

知道了。只是為了確保我聽清楚了你的意思。我認為您提到了全年每股收益 9.80 美元，而第四季度每股收益運行率約為 2.78 美元。您是否相信您可以透過任何方式增加收入？

I'm sorry, I didn't hear the -- here clearly. Yes.

抱歉，我沒有聽清楚──這裡。是的。

If I heard you correctly, Ebrahim, I mean, yes, we think that the $9.80 is a period from -- that we can -- that's the fourth quarter number implicitly obviously. And that from there, given what we expect to happen in terms of continued loan growth, a little bit more tempered than maybe what the Street is have us at. But margin expansion, which is the opposite of what the street had us at that we can continue to sustain that throughout 2023. Again, this is the backdrop of what the FOMC actions are going to be as predicted in the futures curve.

如果我沒聽錯的話，易卜拉欣，我的意思是，是的，我們認為 9.80 美元是一個時期 - 我們可以 - 這顯然是第四季度的數字。從那時起，考慮到我們對貸款持續成長的預期，我們預期貸款成長速度會比華爾街預期的要慢。但保證金擴張與華爾街的預期相反，我們可以在 2023 年全年繼續維持這種狀態。同樣，這也是 FOMC 行動的背景，正如期貨曲線所預測的那樣。

Your next question is from Steven Alexopoulos from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Steven Alexopoulos。

I wanted to start on the deposit cost side. If I include the cost of...

我想從存款成本方面開始。如果我把成本算進去...

Steve, you got to talk up. Steve, we can't really hear you. Can you pick up the receiver or get closer to the phone. We're just not hearing you clearly.

史蒂夫，你得大聲說出來。史蒂夫，我們真的聽不見你說話。您能拿起聽筒或靠近電話嗎？我們只是沒有聽清楚你的話。

Is that any better?

有好些了嗎？

Much better.

好多了。

Okay. On the deposit cost side, if I include the cost of the earnings credit related deposits and the cost of total, we calculate these change by about 61 basis points quarter-over-quarter. Earning assets are up 71 basis points. So from a spread view, it's up about 10. Looking at it through that lens, how do you see that spread trending over the next few quarters?

好的。在存款成本方面，如果我將收益信貸相關存款的成本和總成本包括在內，我們計算出這些變化比上一季減少了約 61 個基點。生息資產增加71個基點。因此，從利差來看，它上漲了約 10。從這個角度來看，您認為未來幾季的利差趨勢如何？

Probably, most likely, parallel. I mean I think we have a little bit of momentum in the loan side because of -- kind of they were held back because of floors. But yes, we're comfortable with the parallel shift there. Also, we're getting better pricing on the loan side. And I don't think that we -- there's much more to go on funding cost increases.

很可能，最有可能的是，平行。我的意思是，我認為我們在貸款方面有一點動力，因為他們受到下限的阻礙。但是的，我們對那裡的平行轉變感到滿意。此外，我們在貸款方面也獲得了更好的定價。我不認為我們會面臨更大的融資成本成長空間。

Okay. On the ECR deposits, how much of the $2 billion per quarter growth do you assume will come from that? And how should we think about that cost moving forward?

好的。關於 ECR 存款，您認為每季 20 億美元的成長中有多少來自於此？那我們該如何考慮未來的成本呢？

We're not expecting that our deposit structure on the liability side is going to be improving at all. And so what we've dialed in is growth predominantly in either interest-bearing or in ECR related. I do think that we've got opportunities to bring some other stuff in, as I mentioned, with business escrow services and some of these others but that is not a major factor in terms of moving that needle. I think we're going to be paying for deposits.

我們不預期負債方面的存款結構會有任何改善。因此，我們所關注的主要是利息成長或 ECR 相關的成長。我確實認為我們有機會引入一些其他的東西，正如我所提到的，例如商業託管服務和其他一些服務，但這並不是推動這一進程的主要因素。我想我們會支付押金。

Got it. Okay. And then finally, in terms of pulling back the lending a bit, which categories are you planning to deemphasize here?

知道了。好的。最後，在減少貸款方面，您計劃減少哪些類別的貸款？

Yes. Good question there, Steve. And so as I said, we've tried to do this in a very surgical way. So we're going to pull back our resi loan growth, this quarter, it was $750 million. I would expect that to drop to under $250 million in Q4 and then drop to under $100 million going forward. But just to refresh memory for those on the phone, it wasn't too long ago that we had $6 billion sitting in liquidity at 10 basis points. And so building up a residential book seems to be the appropriate thing to do back then. We're not going to be emphasizing it now going forward.

是的。史蒂夫，這個問題問得好。正如我所說，我們嘗試以一種非常精準的方式來做到這一點。因此，我們將降低住宅貸款成長，本季為 7.5 億美元。我預計第四季這一數字將降至 2.5 億美元以下，之後將降至 1 億美元以下。但只是為了讓那些在電話裡的人回憶一下，不久之前，我們還有 60 億美元的流動性，利率是 10 個基點。因此，建立一本住宅書籍似乎是當時適當的做法。我們現在不會再強調這一點。

The other places you'll see us be more circumspect on is in the capital call subscription line space. We really haven't seen the cross-lending portfolio company opportunities that we had hope to have materialized, they did not. And so we're going to pull back there. That business eats up a lot of our unfunded lines, our unfunded commitments. That's why Tim Bruckner is working on that in terms of the optimization. And I said -- I guess I would say, the other thing is, we continue to stay close to all our clients, and no loan gets approved, certainly at the most senior level in this company, without a significant deposit relationship coming over. And we made that a big focus as well.

您會看到我們在其他地方也更加謹慎，那就是在資本調用認購線領域。我們確實沒有看到我們所希望實現的交叉貸款投資組合公司機會，事實並非如此。所以我們要撤回那裡。這項業務佔據了我們大量未撥付的資金和未撥付的承諾。這就是 Tim Bruckner 致力於優化的原因。我說——我想說的是，另一件事是，我們繼續與所有客戶保持密切聯繫，如果沒有大量的存款關係，任何貸款都無法獲得批准，當然，在公司最高層也是如此。我們也把這一點當作重點。

And therefore, if you're not bringing over deposits, then some of our loan growth will slow naturally. But quite frankly, as an entrepreneurial bank that has always outperformed on the loan growth side, this is a challenge for us and to a certain extent, to be more surgical on where we're going to grow. We think we can do that, and we think we could keep the loan growth to under $1.5 billion and that kind of connects back to the CET1 ratio on why we're trying to also move it up to 10%. We're not getting credit for the loan growth, Steve, and people are saying, well, you're probably lending into a recession. We just will pull back, and we'll look for higher yields on all that.

因此，如果不引入存款，我們的部分貸款成長自然就會放緩。但坦白說，作為一家在貸款成長方面一直表現優異的創業銀行，這對我們來說是一個挑戰，並且在一定程度上要求我們更加精準地確定成長方向。我們認為我們可以做到這一點，我們認為我們可以將貸款成長保持在 15 億美元以下，這與 CET1 比率有關，這也是我們試圖將其提高到 10% 的原因。史蒂夫，我們並沒有因為貸款成長而獲得讚譽，人們說，好吧，你可能在經濟衰退時放款。我們只會撤退，並尋求更高的收益。

Your next question comes from Brad Milsaps from Piper Sandler.

您的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Brad Milsaps。

Ken, I think I heard you mention that you thought the efficiency ratio would stay in the low 40s sort of ex the impact of ECR deposit costs. I want to make sure I heard that correctly. So there was some severance -- small severance costs in the quarter and wondering if -- what the benefit from those might be going forward? And then finally, because you're pulling back on growth, does that mean we should maybe think of pulling back on the expense growth as well? I'm just trying to get a sense of kind of the expenses ex the ECR?

肯，我想我聽到你提到過，你認為效率比率將保持在 40% 以下，以消除 ECR 存款成本的影響。我想確認我聽得沒錯。因此，本季有一些遣散費——小額遣散費，想知道這些遣散費在未來會有什麼好處？最後，由於您正在抑製成長，這是否意味著我們也應該考慮抑制費用增長？我只是想了解 ECR 以外的費用是多少？

Yes. So you did hear me correctly that ex deposit costs, the efficiency ratio should stay in the low 40s. Brad, if we don't keep it there. I mean, look, we can take it down, but we're not going to do that for several reasons. And I think I've been clear about this on previous calls. Number one, we're preparing for the day that we grow over the $100 billion threshold. And we always need to continue to invest in risk management and technology, which we're doing. We also are continuing to invest in new products and new services and new rollouts.

是的。所以你確實聽對了，扣除存款成本後，效率比率應該保持在 40% 以下。布拉德，如果我們不把它留在那裡。我的意思是，看，我們可以把它拿下來，但是由於幾個原因我們不會這樣做。我認為我在之前的通話中已經明確表達了這一點。首先，我們正在為突破 1000 億美元門檻的那一天做準備。我們始終需要繼續投資於風險管理和技術，我們也正在這樣做。我們也將繼續投資於新產品、新服務和新產品的推出。

And Dale mentioned 1, it actually got a little ahead of -- what I was going to say about that on the corporate trust, I was going to wait until we brought in some deposits. But we've built that into our expense base next year as well, which is a new product, our new business line. So it's important for us to continue to build up these new business lines, and that's why we're going to keep it in the low 40s. That will help us or that will not deter our growth in total EPS as we roll into 2023. There are a couple of components to your question. Do I answer all of them?

戴爾提到 1，它實際上有點超前了 - 關於公司信託，我打算等到我們引入一些存款後再說。但我們明年也將其納入了開支基礎，這是一種新產品，也是我們的新業務線。因此，對我們來說，繼續建立這些新的業務線非常重要，這就是我們要將其保持在 40 出頭的原因。這將對我們有所幫助，或不會阻礙我們進入 2023 年時每股收益總額的成長。您的問題有幾個部分。我回答了所有問題嗎？

Yes. And then maybe as my follow-up question to Dale, just on the ECR deposits again. Do you see a change in the pace of that beta or that rate in which those costs are going up? Do you see that accelerating? I'm sure it's not decelerating, but just kind of curious your thought around just kind of the pace of that change going forward.

是的。然後也許我可以向 Dale 提出後續問題，再次討論 ECR 存款。您是否看到測試版的速度或成本上升的速度改變了？您覺得這個趨勢在加速嗎？我確信它不會減速，但我只是有點好奇你對未來這種變化的速度的看法。

I don't. I mean out of the gate, we had some that were a little more sluggish than others, but this has been the most widely telegraphed rate rise scenario, I think, in history. And no 1 is not aware of it, not a Western Alliance anyway. And so yes, so they're fully participating. They're basically moving in lockstep with FOMC or effective Fed funds.

我不知道。我的意思是，一開始，我們的一些政策比其他政策稍微遲緩一些，但我認為，這是歷史上最廣泛報導的升息情景。沒有人不知道這一點，至少西方聯盟不知道。是的，他們全程參與。他們基本上與聯邦公開市場委員會或有效聯邦基金保持同步行動。

Your next question comes from Tim Braziler from Wells Fargo.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Tim Braziler。

Maybe looking at the MSR hedge loss this quarter, can you just help us kind of frame our thoughts around that? Is that kind of going to continue in the fourth quarter, just given the pace of rates? Was that a little bit more idiosyncratic with just the shift in volume? And any color on kind of broader direction for AmeriHome kind of gain on sale revenue would be greatly appreciated?

也許看看本季的 MSR 對沖損失，您能否幫助我們對此進行思考？考慮到利率的成長速度，這種情況會在第四季持續下去嗎？音量的變化是不是有點特別？您是否非常感激您對 AmeriHome 銷售收入成長的更廣泛方向的任何說明？

Yes. Let me give you the broader direction and tell you what we are planning for in 2023. So we are using the Q3 total mortgage servicing revenues of $37 million as our base going forward throughout 2023. We hope to do much better than that. But for our planning purposes, 23 -- I'm sorry, $37 million is the base as we go forward. So that's, I think, the first thing. Regarding the $22 million ball hit that we had. Our models when we model things, we model out the life of the loan for 30 years, all the cash flows and then we discounted back. And we hedged that in our model, but we hedge it out to 18 months.

是的。讓我給你一個更廣泛的方向，並告訴你我們在 2023 年的計畫。因此，我們將以第三季 3,700 萬美元的抵押貸款服務總收入作為我們 2023 年計畫的基礎。我們希望做得更好。但就我們的規劃目的而言，23—抱歉，3700 萬美元是我們未來的基礎。所以我認為這是第一件事。關於我們遭受的 2200 萬美元打擊。當我們對事物進行建模時，我們會模擬 30 年的貸款期限、所有現金流，然後進行折現。我們在模型中對此進行了對沖，但我們將其對沖至 18 個月。

After that, there's not enough liquidity in some of the hedging instruments. And so we took a little bit of a hit in the volatility going out above 18 months. Now what I should say, and we should have said in the opening statements here, we pulled back half of that in the MSR valuations. We have outside firms, look at the MSR valuations. And so while we took a $22 million back about $10 million of that. So the net impact was $12 million. But we're also doing something different in the business. We continue to rightsize that business. We're probably down about 29% in total people count there. So we're trying to make sure we are the low-cost operator in that space.

此後，一些對沖工具的流動性不足。因此，我們在 18 個月以上的波動中受到了一點打擊。現在我應該說的是，我們也應該在開場白中說，我們在 MSR 估值中撤回了一半。我們有外部公司，看看 MSR 估值。因此，雖然我們收回了 2200 萬美元，但其中約有 1000 萬美元。因此淨影響為 1200 萬美元。但我們在業務上也做了一些不同的事情。我們將繼續調整該業務的規模。那裡的總人數可能下降了約 29%。因此，我們正在努力確保我們是該領域的低成本營運商。

And we're not trying to win share for share purposes only. We're trying to win profitable share. So the volume of correspondent moments that we purchased will be less. But we are pushing and hopefully, the market will see this and also follow that the margins will increase. And so far, early results in early Q4 is that strategy is beginning to work.

我們並不是只為了贏得份額而去爭取份額。我們正在努力贏得獲利份額。因此我們購買的對應時刻的數量將會更少。但我們正在努力，希望市場能看到這一點，利潤率也會跟著提高。到目前為止，第四季度初的早期結果表明該策略開始發揮作用。

Okay. That's great color. I appreciate that. And then maybe just going back to 1 of Dale's comments when talking on asset quality. You mentioned the provisions kind of capture, a softer view of the economy. I know you're pulling back on some lending verticals but that doesn't seem credit related. I guess as you look out across your landscape, what are those softer areas that you're kind of focusing on here?

好的。顏色真棒。我很感激。然後也許只是回到戴爾在談論資產品質時所發表的一則評論。您提到了條款類型的捕獲，對經濟的一種更溫和的看法。我知道您正在撤回一些貸款垂直領域，但這似乎與信貸無關。我想，當您放眼整個景觀時，您關注的那些較柔和的區域是什麼？

You mean softer or the more opportunistic areas. Actually, I'll let Tim answer.

您的意思是更軟或更機會主義的區域。實際上，我會讓蒂姆來回答。

Yes, I can take that. I think we signaled that we saw some headwinds in the economy where have we pulled back or where will we respond, is that correct?

是的，我可以接受。我認為我們已經發出信號表明，我們看到了經濟中的一些阻力，我們在哪裡退縮了，或者我們將如何應對，對嗎？

Yes, that's, right.

是的，沒錯。

Okay. Great. So a year ago, we started adding a real heavy stress to everything, development, construction-related and commercial real estate. Okay? So that's one. So we had tempered our underwriting. We've maintained that. We've become more conservative in advance and underwritten with a significantly heavier interest rate stress, I think that's positioned us well in that segment.

好的。偉大的。因此，一年前，我們開始對開發、建築相關和商業房地產等一切領域施加真正沉重的壓力。好的？這就是其中之一。因此，我們調整了承保範圍。我們一直堅持這一點。我們提前變得更加保守，並在承保時承受了更大的利率壓力，我認為這使我們在該領域處於有利地位。

On the investor dependence side, starting in November -- October and November of last year, we significantly stressed our enterprise valuation methodology. So those 2 areas are areas that given our portfolio weighting would receive more stress, and we adjust it early.

在投資者依賴方面，從去年11月、10月和11月開始，我們顯著強調了我們的企業估值方法。因此，考慮到我們的投資組合權重，這兩個領域將承受更大的壓力，我們將提前進行調整。

We're also bringing our portfolio to this. We did this coming out of last year into 4 major categories. The insurable portfolio, which Dale referenced, which is about 24% of our portfolio is credit protected insured or how the government guarantee to it. We have economic, resilient economic resistant and then we have economic sensitive. And we've been deemphasizing the economic sensitive loan categories and staying with the other 3, actually basically the insurable category and the economic resistant categories, we've been spending more of our time in terms of our lending pursuits.

我們也將我們的產品組合帶入其中。我們從去年開始就將其分為 4 個主要類別。戴爾提到的可保投資組合，約占我們投資組合的 24%，是信用保護保險，或政府擔保的投資組合。我們的經濟具有韌性，具有經濟抵抗力，我們也具有經濟敏感性。我們一直在淡化對經濟敏感型貸款類別的重視，而保留其他三個類別，實際上基本上是可保類別和經濟抗性類別，我們在貸款追求方面花費了更多的時間。

Got it. And then just as a follow-up, you guys have certainly outpaced the market when it comes to warehouse lending. And I know a good component of that is just kind of tapping into the AmeriHome network. I guess, how big of an opportunity is left there? And maybe just broader thoughts around warehouse would be appreciated?

知道了。然後作為後續問題，你們在倉庫貸款方面確實已經領先市場。我知道其中一個很好的組成部分就是利用 AmeriHome 網路。我猜，那裡還剩下多大的機會？也許只是對倉庫有更廣泛的思考會受到歡迎？

Yes. So when we say warehouse lending, we've got a couple of components to that. One is the traditional warehouse lending, but also embedded in rounding is our node financing opportunity. That's note-on-note financing, where we'll see LTVs of about maybe 40% or lower, and we'll be in a first position. No financing business is really very strong at this point. And so it's helping lift the warehouse lending side a little bit. But to be honest with you, we're still seeing a lot of good growth coming in warehouse lending.

是的。因此，當我們說倉庫貸款時，我們有幾個組成部分。一個是傳統的倉儲借貸，但嵌入在取整中的也是我們的節點融資機會。這就是票據對票據融資，我們將看到 LTV 大約為 40％ 或更低，我們將處於領先地位。目前，沒有任何融資業務真正表現得非常強勁。因此，這有助於稍微提升倉庫貸款方面。但說實話，我們仍然看到倉庫貸款業務出現很大的成長。

And there, I would say is that we're taking some market share as other people are pulling back. And as other people are struggling to deliver the type of service we deliver. We're also seeing MSR lending is embedded in that group, too. And that has a lot of interest from borrowers, and we have some comfort level that we can grow that throughout 2023.

我想說的是，隨著其他人的退出，我們正在佔領一些市場份額。而其他人也在努力提供我們所提供類型的服務。我們還發現 MSR 貸款也融入了該群體。借款人對此很感興趣，我們有信心在 2023 年實現這一目標。

Your next question comes from Chris McGratty from KBW.

您的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Chris McGratty。

Great. Dale, I want to go back to the loan and deposit repricing, if I could, and moving a little slow today. Can you just repeat kind of the comments about incremental betas on both sides of the balance sheet? I'm just trying to make sure I get what the messaging is on repricing of assets and liabilities.

偉大的。戴爾，如果可以的話，我想回到貸款和存款重新定價問題，今天進展會慢一點。您能否重複一下資產負債表兩邊增量貝塔係數的評論？我只是想確保我理解有關資產和負債重新定價的資訊。

So if I look at our spot rates, we have a greater momentum coming from Q2 to -- and then Q3, that isn't captured in the average rates on the loan side more significantly than it is on the funding side. And I think that's because, in part, the loans were held back because of floor has been -- nothing is close to a 4 today. And so I think that carries us in terms of what that looks like going forward. And so it so long as we have a loan beta from here that is no lower than the loan to the deposit beta, and we're anticipating deposit betas to be very high. We're going to continue to do well, and especially if we can reprice things higher, as Ken mentioned, with these 31 returns that we had from our senior loan committee, all of which came back with, yes, we'll take the underwriting even at a higher cost. So we think, we're well situated to carry that.

因此，如果我查看我們的現貨利率，我們會發現從第二季度到第三季度的勢頭更為強勁，但這一趨勢在貸款方面的平均利率中並沒有比在融資方面更明顯地體現出來。我認為部分原因是貸款被扣留，因為利率下限已經達到——目前還沒有接近 4 的水平。所以我認為這將引領我們走向未來。因此，只要我們現在的貸款貝塔值不低於貸款與存款貝塔值的比率，我們預計存款貝塔值會非常高。我們將繼續做得很好，特別是如果我們能夠將價格提高，正如肯提到的那樣，我們從高級貸款委員會獲得了 31 份回報，所有這些回報都是，是的，即使成本更高，我們也會接受承銷。因此我們認為，我們有能力實現這一目標。

Now for the fourth quarter, I mean, I think we're dialing in 75 and then 50 and then we don't have anything in 2023, I think maybe there's going to be a little bit of a tail. But with that kind of a profile and with really, the repricing we're doing on our loan book that isn't -- I don't see that in our funding book because our funding book is already really fully moving in lockstep.

現在對於第四季度，我的意思是，我認為我們撥打的是 75，然後是 50，然後在 2023 年我們沒有任何進展，我認為可能會有一點尾部。但是，由於這種概況以及我們對貸款帳簿進行的重新定價，我在我們的融資帳簿中沒有看到這種情況，因為我們的融資帳簿已經完全同步移動。

Now we do have some benefit opportunities like we had in 3Q, where $300 million of our DDA was not ECR related. I think some of those things are going to kick in, but we don't have to do that. So long as we -- all we have to do is have our loan betas be no lower than our deposit betas, the loan book and with the securities book, which has demonstrated a variable rate as well, largely, we're going to be able to continue to have expansion of net interest margin and then couple that with a more modest expansion of the balance sheet.

現在我們確實有一些像第三季那樣的收益機會，其中 3 億美元的 DDA 與 ECR 無關。我認為其中一些事情將會發生，但我們不必這樣做。只要我們——我們所要做的就是讓我們的貸款貝塔係數不低於我們的存款貝塔係數，貸款賬簿和證券賬簿也顯示出了浮動利率，那麼我們將能夠繼續擴大淨息差，然後將其與資產負債表的更溫和擴張相結合。

That's help. But you said a very high deposit. Did you put a number on that for kind of future betas?

這很有幫助。但您說押金很高。您是否為未來的測試版本設定了數字？

No, no. I mean really, as Ken mentioned, that's not our management thing. We're not trying to optimize betas. We're trying to optimize net interest income and DDR.

不，不。我的意思是，正如肯所提到的，這不是我們的管理事務。我們並沒有嘗試優化測試版。我們正在努力優化淨利息收入和 DDR。

Okay. Last one, just to make sure I understand the $9.80 that you reiterated, is that -- just remind me, is that full year net income earnings per share? Or is that fourth quarter annualized? Just trying to get the right starting off point.

好的。最後，只是為了確保我理解您重申的 9.80 美元，這是——提醒我一下，這是全年每股淨收入嗎？或者說第四季是按年率計算的？只是想找到正確的起點。

Yes, that's the full year of kind of what an operating income would be, correct.

是的，這就是全年的營業收入，正確。

Your next question comes from Andrew Terrell from Stephens Inc.

您的下一個問題來自 Stephens Inc. 的 Andrew Terrell。

Most of might have been asked and addressed already. But Dale, can you remind us just expectation for the size of the average loans held for sale portfolio? And then do you have the spot rate on that book at the end of the quarter?

大多數問題可能已經被問過並解決。但是戴爾，您能否提醒我們對於待售貸款組合的平均規模的預期？那麼，您是否有本季末該帳簿的現貨匯率？

Yes, the spot rate on that book was $5.29. And we think that balance is going to be modestly lower than where we ended at $9.30.

是的，該書的現貨匯率為 5.29 美元。我們認為，餘額將略低於最終的 9.30 美元。

Your next question comes from Brandon King from Truist Security.

您的下一個問題來自 Truist Security 的 Brandon King。

Just 1 question from me. I understand and I see benefits when rates are rising. But I'm curious, what are the actions you've taken in the event that we have a recession and theoretically rates will fall, just curious if there have been any actions that you've taken place to kind of protect against that in the future?

我只想問一個問題。我理解這一點，而且我也看到了利率上升帶來的好處。但我很好奇，如果出現經濟衰退，理論上利率會下降，您會採取什麼行動，只是好奇您是否採取了什麼行動來防止未來出現這種情況？

Yes. So 1 thing that really helped us during the pandemic is we are active and basically mandate anything that isn't a syndicated situation led by somebody else that we get loans on. And so we did that, and that held up our loan yields much better than some others and kind of improved our net interest income. We're still doing that. They're really, I would say, largely ineffective at this point in time because you put a floor in, maybe that floor is 100 basis points lower than the current rate based upon the variable rate instrument there.

是的。因此，在疫情期間真正對我們有幫助的一件事就是我們積極主動，基本上要求我們透過任何非由他人主導的銀團貸款來獲得貸款。所以我們這樣做了，這使我們的貸款收益率比其他一些銀行高得多，並且在一定程度上提高了我們的淨利息收入。我們仍在這樣做。我想說，目前它們基本上是無效的，因為你設定了一個下限，也許這個下限比基於那裡的浮動利率工具的當前利率低 100 個基點。

And then if it's going up another 150 in the next 90 days, I mean, it's going to be way out of the money. But if we hold at higher rates per se, like a year, we'll be able to reprice a lot of those floors much closer to the current rate, which will give us a lot of insulation in terms of what that would be like. The other thing I would say is, my gosh, I mean, in a lower rate environment, I think the mortgage market is -- it's going to get jump started, and we're certainly ready for that also.

然後，如果它在接下來的 90 天內再上漲 150，我的意思是，它將遠遠超出價值。但如果我們持有較高的利率，例如一年，我們將能夠重新定價許多接近當前利率的利率下限，這將為我們提供很大的保護。我想說的另一件事是，天哪，我的意思是，在較低的利率環境下，我認為抵押貸款市場將會快速啟動，我們當然也為此做好了準備。

Okay. And no other, I guess, hedges or interest rate collars being put on the balance sheet, has that been contemplated as well?

好的。我猜，資產負債表上沒有其他避險或利率區間，是否也考慮過這一點？

We always debate that. We put some term kind of hedges on. We -- some fixed swaps back when rates were in the low double-digit basis points. So we'll evaluate that at that time. But again, that's just to mitigate kind of the downturn.

我們總是爭論這個問題。我們設定了一些期限類型的避險。當利率處於兩位數低點基點時，我們進行了一些固定掉期交易。因此我們將在那時進行評估。但同樣，這只是為了緩解經濟衰退。

Your next question is from Jon Arfstrom from RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Jon Arfstrom。

Just a few cleanup questions. One on Chris McGratty's question on the run rate deal. I know it's kind of nitpicky, but if you take the annualized $9.80, you get to $2.45 for the fourth quarter, I think you're saying that's too low, but we kind of have to stretch to get to $9.80, just clarify that for us on the $9.80 number, what do you mean by that?

僅有幾個清理問題。一個是克里斯·麥格拉蒂 (Chris McGratty) 關於運行率交易的問題。我知道這有點吹毛求疵，但是如果按年化 9.80 美元計算，那麼第四季度的利潤就是 2.45 美元，我想您說這個數字太低了，但我們必須努力才能達到 9.80 美元，請您為我們澄清一下 9.80 美元這個數字，您說的是什麼意思？

So the $9.80 is the full year operating EPS. So you have to be above I -- maybe I misunderstood Chris' question a little bit. You have to be above that. That's going to take you to kind of the $2.70 range or somewhere in there to be able to do that.

因此 9.80 美元是全年營業每股收益。所以你必須高於我——也許我有點誤解了克里斯的問題。你必須超越這一點。這將需要花費 2.70 美元左右的價位才能實現這一目標。

Yes, for the fourth quarter. And you're saying that's the jumping off point for '23?

是的，第四季。你是說這就是 23 年的起點？

Yes.

是的。

Yes. Okay. I've had a couple of questions. I think people know I'm the last guy on the call maybe, but can you talk about the ECR expenses and talk about the efficiency ratio with ECR and how you want us to think about that expense in the model?

是的。好的。我有幾個問題。我想人們可能知道我是最後一個接電話的人，但是您能談談 ECR 費用以及 ECR 的效率比率嗎？以及您希望我們如何在模型中考慮該費用？

Well, we're showing it both ways. I mean to me, if it looks actions and smells like something, maybe that's what you should call it. I think it really acts like interest expense. That's not really how the gap maps it geographically. So here we are. So we can look at it both ways. I do think that taking it out and considering it as interest expense gives one a much better view in terms of, one, is the bank asset sensitive or not, how is revenue rising and interest income relative to expense? And we're still higher, not as much higher as that we keep it in expense. And then you look at your operating kind of architecture, and we're in the low 40s if you just eliminate it completely. And I think those are kind of both appropriate.

嗯，我們用兩種方式來展示。我的意思是，如果它看起來、聞起來像某種東西，也許你就應該這麼稱呼它。我認為它的作用確實類似利息支出。這並不是差距在地理上的真正映射。所以我們到了這裡。所以我們可以從兩個角度來看這個問題。我確實認為，將其取出並視為利息支出可以讓人們更好地了解銀行資產是否敏感，收入如何增長以及利息收入相對於支出如何？而且我們的成本仍然較高，但沒有我們將其保持在費用中那麼高。然後你看看你的操作架構，如果你完全消除它，我們就會處於 40 年代初期。我認為這兩種說法都很適合。

As Ken said, I think our efficiency ratio going forward, roughly the same position of the low 40s is appropriate. And again, we're looking for continued improvement on net interest income grows relative to interest expense, including deposit costs.

正如肯恩所說，我認為我們未來的效率比率大致保持在 40% 出頭的水平是合適的。我們再次期待淨利息收入相對於利息支出（包括存款成本）的成長持續改善。

Jon, I'd add only 1 thing to that is just, you'll see deposit costs rise in Q4 again, near maybe the same level as Q3. But as we begin to enter into 2023, that rise will be tempered, and it won't be as noticeable as we go through 2023 based on the FOMC projected rate increases.

喬恩，我只想補充一點，你會看到第四季的存款成本再次上升，可能接近與第三季相同的水平。但隨著我們開始進入 2023 年，這種漲勢將會受到緩和，根據 FOMC 預測的升息幅度，這種漲勢在 2023 年不會那麼明顯。

Yes. Okay. Okay. I just have 2 more if I can. Just kind of on that topic, when do you think the margin starts to top out kind of winter where? Because I look back in my models, and I know your business is a little different, but you were approaching the high 4s in the last hiking cycle. And I'm just curious if that's just out of the question and just the timing on when you think this all might peak?

是的。好的。好的。如果可以的話我還要 2 個。就這個主題而言，您認為利潤率什麼時候開始達到頂峰，例如冬天在哪裡？因為我回顧了我的模型，我知道您的業務有些不同，但您在上一個健行週期中已經接近 4 的高點。我只是好奇這是否是不可能的，您認為這一切何時會達到頂峰？

So again, everything is predicated at least right now for us on what the FOMC is going to do, which, for us is 75 bps in a couple of weeks, followed by 50. That's in our -- that's what's in our forecast. We actually don't have anything in there at all in the upward actions in 2023. But we see in terms of the NIM, the rate, we see that continuing to rise quarter-to-quarter. It may flat a little bit out towards the very end of the year. But right now, we even still have that kind of rising as a nice slope throughout the year in excess of what we see in consensus. Yes, but certainly lower than the historical highs that you alluded to.

所以，至少現在，對我們來說，一切都取決於聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）的行動，對我們來說，幾週後利率將升至 75 個基點，然後是 50 個基點。這就是我們的預測。事實上，我們在 2023 年根本沒有任何上行舉措。但從 NIM 來看，我們看到利率在逐季持續上升。到今年年底，這一數字可能會有所下降。但目前，我們仍然看到這種全年上漲趨勢的良好斜率，超過了我們普遍預期的水平。是的，但肯定低於您提到的歷史最高水平。

Yes, yes. Okay. All right. And then the last 1 I have, I like what you guys are doing, but I have to ask this. When you go 31 for 31 on the higher pricing, I mean, I understand that's a positive, but you could take it the other way as well. It could cause you to question pricing and the competitive environment as well. But what are -- what is that -- what do you really learn from that, that 31 for 31? What does that say about the competitive environment? And maybe what did you learn from that?

是的，是的。好的。好的。然後我要問的最後一個問題是，我喜歡你們所做的事情，但我必須問這一點。當你以更高的價格購買 31 件商品時，我的意思是，我明白這是正面的，但你也可以從另一個角度來看待它。這也可能會讓你質疑定價和競爭環境。但那是什麼——那是什麼——你從那 31 for 31 中真正學到了什麼？這說明競爭環境如何？您從中學到了什麼？

Yes. Thanks, Jon. On the competitive side, it's telling us that other banks, other competitors have pulled back probably for several reasons. First and foremost, we think it's because they don't have that deposit base that we have or that fresh liquidity coming into their bank, number one. Number two, they may be more regionalized in their lending, or they may be just more product niche focused.

是的。謝謝，喬恩。從競爭方面來看，其他銀行、其他競爭對手可能會因為多種原因而退出。首先，我們認為這是因為他們不像我們一樣擁有存款基礎，也沒有新的流動資金流入他們的銀行。第二，他們的貸款可能更加區域化，或者可能只是更加重視產品利基。

We have the ability to deploy liquidity and capital to at least 17 different national business lines that we have inside the bank. So it gives us an opportunity to really flex our business models and capability. The third may be a different perception on the economy. Now we are expecting a recession, and we are modeling that, and we are doing our underwriting as if a recession is going to occur. And of course, we stress test everything for much higher rates and lower vacancies and lower rents and all the other things you would expect us to do. But we feel comfortable with our underwriting and the quality of borrower that we're getting in.

我們有能力在銀行內部至少 17 個不同的國家業務線部署流動性和資本。因此，這為我們提供了真正展示我們的商業模式和能力的機會。第三可能是對經濟的認知不同。現在我們預計會出現經濟衰退，我們正在對此進行建模，並且我們正在進行承保，就好像經濟衰退即將發生一樣。當然，我們會對所有事情進行壓力測試，以實現更高的利率、更低的空置率、更低的租金以及您期望我們做的所有其他事情。但我們對我們的承保和借款人的品質感到滿意。

And the reason why I think we feel comfortable. One of the reasons is, back to being a bank for all seasons. We remain open. And as I've said this to every client, we'll always remain open to try to help you, but given the economic either uncertainty or environment, we're going to just change around credit criteria equity we're going to acquire in the deal and pricing. But you should be able to get a loan from us assuming that the deal pencils out and we're dealing with a good borrower. And while borrowers always grows a little bit about higher interest rates. They come back and pay them because they realize the short-term cost of that interest rate is nothing compared to the longer-term benefits they're going to get. And so this comes back to the service side, dependability, the ability to close when we say we're going to close, we close and once we shake hands, we don't re-trade. And that has a lot of positive force to having our clients continue to return to us.

這也是我認為我們感覺舒適的原因。原因之一是，重新成為四季皆宜的銀行。我們保持開放。正如我對每位客戶所說的那樣，我們將始終保持開放的態度，盡力為您提供幫助，但考慮到經濟的不確定性或環境，我們將改變我們在交易和定價中獲得的信用標準股權。但如果交易順利，我們遇到的是一位優秀的借款人，那麼你應該可以從我們這裡獲得貸款。而藉款人對更高利率的需求總是會成長一點。他們回來並付款，因為他們意識到該利率的短期成本與他們將獲得的長期利益相比微不足道。所以這又回到了服務方面，可靠性，當我們說要結束時就能結束交易的能力，我們結束交易，一旦握手，我們就不會重新交易。這對吸引客戶繼續回頭有很大的正面作用。

We have provide a commodity service, I mean, so even in normal times, our pricing is almost always higher than others. But because of what Ken said, in terms of our ability to kind of to deliver on time and the consistent structure as promised, that's worth something to our clients and they're willing to pay for it.

我的意思是，我們提供的是商品服務，所以即使在正常時期，我們的定價幾乎總是高於其他人。但正如肯所說，就我們按時交付的能力和承諾的一致結構而言，這對我們的客戶來說是有價值的，他們願意為此付費。

There are no further questions at this time. Please proceed.

目前沒有其他問題。請繼續。

Okay. Thank you all for attending the call. Good questions. We liked the quarter that we had and we're positive about what we can do going forward, and we look forward to speaking to you on our next call in January. For those that I don't talk to, I know it's early, but have a good holiday. Thanks, everyone.

好的。感謝大家參加電話會議。好問題。我們對本季的表現感到滿意，並對未來的發展充滿信心，並期待在一月份的下次電話會議上與您交談。對於那些我沒有交談過的人，我知道現在還早，但祝大家假期愉快。謝謝大家。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，並請您斷開線路。