美國西屋制動公司 (WAB) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Wabtec fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions). Please note this event is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加 Wabtec 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指令）。請注意，該事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Kyra Yates, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Kyra Yates。請繼續。

Thanks, Operator. Good everyone, and welcome to Wabtec's fourth quarter 2024 earnings call. With us today are President and CEO, Rafael Santana; CFO, John Olin; and Senior Vice President of Finance, John Mastalerz.

謝謝，接線生。大家好，歡迎參加 Wabtec 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。今天與我們在一起的有總裁兼執行長 Rafael Santana；首席財務官，約翰‧奧林 (John Olin)；以及財務資深副總裁 John Mastalerz。

Today's slide presentation, along with our earnings release and financial disclosures were posted to our website earlier today and can be accessed on the Investor Relations tab. Some statements we are making are forward-looking and based on our best view of the world and our business today.

今天的幻燈片演示以及我們的收益報告和財務披露已於今天早些時候發佈到我們的網站上，可在“投資者關係”選項卡上訪問。我們所做的一些聲明是前瞻性的，基於我們對當今世界和我們業務的最佳看法。

For more detailed risks, uncertainties and assumptions relating to our forward-looking statements, please see the disclosures in our earnings release and presentation. We will also discuss non-GAAP financial metrics and encourage you to read our disclosures and reconciliation tables carefully as you consider these metrics.

有關我們的前瞻性陳述的更詳細風險、不確定性和假設，請參閱我們的收益報告和簡報中的揭露內容。我們還將討論非 GAAP 財務指標，並鼓勵您在考慮這些指標時仔細閱讀我們的揭露和對帳表。

I will now turn the call over to Rafael.

現在我將電話轉給拉斐爾。

Thanks, Kyra, and good morning, everyone. Before John and I get into the details of the fourth quarter, I'd like to share some thoughts on the past year, this year and the next five years. Overall, the Wabtec team has delivered another very strong year. We saw top line growth of 7%, operating margin expansion of 190 basis points, cash conversion of 117% and adjusted EPS growth of 28%. The team continued to lay a solid foundation for us to build on as we look to realize the full potential of our company.

謝謝，凱拉，大家早安。在約翰和我討論第四季的細節之前，我想分享一些關於過去一年、今年和未來五年的想法。總體而言，Wabtec 團隊又取得了非常強勁的一年。我們的營業收入成長了 7%，營業利潤率擴大了 190 個基點，現金轉換率成長了 117%，調整後每股盈餘成長了 28%。當我們尋求充分發揮公司潛力時，團隊繼續為我們奠定堅實的基礎。

Looking ahead, I'm excited by the underlying momentum of our business and the team's unrelenting focus on driving continued improvement and delivering for our customers. I believe Wabtec is well positioned to drive continued profitable growth ahead. To that end, our 2025 financial guidance includes mid-single-digit revenue growth and margin expansion, which will deliver our fifth consecutive year of EPS growth. Finally, we are currently three years into our five year long-term guidance that was issued in early 2022. I'm pleased to report that we have largely achieved our five year goals in just three years.

展望未來，我對我們業務的潛在發展勢頭以及團隊堅持不懈地致力於推動持續改進和為客戶提供服務感到興奮。我相信 Wabtec 已做好準備，繼續推動獲利成長。為此，我們的 2025 年財務指引包括中等個位數的營收成長和利潤率擴大，這將實現我們連續第五年實現每股盈餘成長。最後，我們在 2022 年初發布的五年長期指導目前已實施三年。我很高興地報告，我們僅用三年時間就基本實現了五年目標。

Consequently, we are announcing our new five year long-term guidance, and we have even more opportunity to drive value today than we did three years ago. These opportunities are evidenced by the launch of Integration 3.0 and our continuing efforts to optimize our portfolio, which will support over 350 basis points of margin improvement over the next five years.

因此，我們宣布了新的五年長期指導方針，與三年前相比，我們今天擁有更多的機會來推動價值。Integration 3.0的推出和我們持續努力優化產品組合證明了這些機會，這將在未來五年內支持利潤率提高350個基點以上。

Our financial position remains strong. We continue to execute against our capital allocation framework to maximize shareholder value by investing for future growth and returning value to our shareholders. And as a result of our performance in '24 and our confidence in the future, our Board of Directors has increased our dividend by 25% and has authorized another $1 billion for share repurchases, which we announced in December.

我們的財務狀況依然強勁。我們將繼續按照我們的資本配置框架執行，透過投資未來成長和為股東帶來價值來實現股東價值最大化。由於我們24年的出色表現以及對未來的信心，我們的董事會將股息提高了25%，並批准再投入10億美元用於股票回購，我們已於12月宣布了這一消息。

Let's move to slide 5 to discuss our Q4 results. I'll start with an update on our business, my perspectives on the quarter and progress against our long-term value creation framework, and then John will cover the financials. We delivered a strong fourth quarter. Sales were $2.6 billion, which was up over 2% and adjusted EPS was up 9% from the year ago quarter. Total cash flow from operations for the quarter was $722 million, representing a strong cash conversion of 212%. The 12-month backlog was $7.7 billion, signifying continued momentum and visibility across the businesses.

讓我們轉到投影片 5 來討論我們的第四季業績。我將首先介紹我們的業務最新情況、我對本季的看法以及我們長期價值創造框架的進展情況，然後約翰將介紹財務狀況。我們第四季表現強勁。銷售額為 26 億美元，年成長超過 2%，調整後每股盈餘較去年同期成長 9%。本季經營活動產生的現金流量總額為 7.22 億美元，現金轉換率高達 212%。12 個月的積壓訂單為 77 億美元，顯示各項業務持續保持強勁發展勢頭和可預見性。

Shifting our focus to slide 6. Let's talk about our 2025 and market expectations in more details. While key metrics across our freight business remain mixed, we are encouraged by the strength of our business international market activity and our current pipeline of opportunities across geographies. North American carloads continue to be up for the quarter.

將焦點轉移到投影片 6。讓我們更詳細地談談我們對 2025 年和市場的期望。儘管我們的貨運業務的關鍵指標仍然好壞參半，但我們對業務國際市場活動的強勁以及我們目前跨地區的機會管道感到鼓舞。本季北美貨車裝載量持續上升。

Despite this carload growth the industries and Wabtec's active locomotive fleet were largely flat when compared to the last year's fourth quarter. Looking at the North American railcar builds, demand for new railcars was down compared to 2023 and landed at approximately 42,000 cars for 2024. The industry outlook for 2025 is to be down nearly 17%.

儘管貨車裝載量有所增長，但與去年第四季相比，業界和 Wabtec 的活躍機車車隊基本上持平。從北美鐵路車輛建設情況來看，新鐵路車輛的需求與 2023 年相比有所下降，到 2024 年將降至約 42,000 輛。2025 年產業前景將下降近 17%。

Internationally, activity is strong across core markets such as Latin America, Africa, Asia and CIS. Significant investments to expand and upgrade infrastructure are supporting a robust international locomotive orders pipeline. In mining, commodity prices and an aging fleet continued to support activity to refresh and upgrade the truck fleet.

從國際來看，拉丁美洲、非洲、亞洲和獨聯體等核心市場的活動十分活躍。用於擴建和升級基礎設施的大量投資正在支持強勁的國際機車訂單管道。在採礦業，大宗商品價格和車隊老化繼續支持卡車車隊的更新和升級活動。

Finally, moving to the Transit sector. We continue to see underlying indicators for growth. Ridership levels are increasing in key geographies, along with fleet expansion and renewals. Next, let's turn to slide 7 to discuss a few business highlights.

最後，轉向交通運輸領域。我們繼續看到成長的潛在指標。隨著車隊的擴張和更新，主要地區的乘客量也不斷增加。接下來，我們翻到第 7 張投影片來討論一些業務亮點。

This quarter, we converted over $1 billion of pipeline in new locomotive and modernization orders. With that context, in North America, we secured $355 million in mods within the quarter, including the first mods order with Ferromex. These orders demonstrate the need for our Class 1 customers to continue to invest in their fleets over time. Fourth quarter was also a strong quarter for international orders. We won orders for new locomotives totaling $649 million with several customers.

本季度，我們將超過 10 億美元的管道轉換為新機車和現代化訂單。在此背景下，在北美，我們本季獲得了價值 3.55 億美元的 mods 訂單，其中包括與 Ferromex 簽訂的首筆 mods 訂單。這些訂單表明我們的 1 級客戶需要隨著時間的推移繼續對其船隊進行投資。第四季也是國際訂單強勁的一個季度。我們贏得了多個客戶總額達 6.49 億美元的新機車訂單。

These locomotives will help support the mining and agricultural growth in various international markets. In this context, we would like to highlight Africa, where we continue to capture significant growth opportunities in that region.

這些機車將有助於支持各個國際市場的採礦業和農業成長。在此背景下，我們要專注於非洲，我們將繼續在該地區抓住重要的成長機會。

We won another order to support the Simandou project which is the largest mining project Albert undertaken in the region. This project will be worth over $1 billion when you combine the equipment and services opportunities. These international wins demonstrate senior demand for our best-in-class solutions that drive productivity, reliability and durability for our customers.

我們贏得了另一份訂單，支持西芒杜項目，這是阿爾伯特在該地區承擔的最大採礦項目。如果將設備和服務機會結合起來，該項目的價值將超過 10 億美元。這些國際獎項表明，高層對我們一流的解決方案有著很高的需求，這些解決方案可以為我們的客戶提高生產力、可靠性和耐用性。

Moving to our digital intelligence business. We signed significant orders with Class 1 customers for advanced automation train handling solutions. And finally, we won signaling contracts for over $100 million with our North America transit customers. This is our digital group's strongest year for orders, totaling approximately $1 billion. All of this demonstrates the underlying strength across our businesses, the team's relentless focus on execution and a strong pipeline of opportunities, which we continue to execute on.

轉向我們的數位智慧業務。我們與一級客戶簽署了先進自動化列車處理解決方案的重要訂單。最後，我們與北美交通運輸客戶贏得了價值超過1億美元的信號合約。這是我們數位集團訂單最多的一年，總額約10億美元。所有這些都證明了我們業務的潛在實力、團隊對執行的不懈關注以及強大的機會管道，我們將繼續努力執行。

Moving to slide 8. Before turning it over to John, I want to briefly discuss our ability to deliver strong and sustainable results. Over the last five years, Wabtec has demonstrated a solid track record of managing through challenging markets, geopolitical issues, hyperinflation and other significant disruptions. We believe our dedicated management team, favorable end markets and our leading technologies and solutions will enable us to remain resilient and more profitable. Our 12-month backlog of $7.7 billion provides visibility and support for growth.

移至幻燈片 8。在交給約翰之前，我想先簡單討論一下我們提供強大且可持續成果的能力。過去五年來，Wabtec 在應對市場挑戰、地緣政治問題、惡性通貨膨脹和其他重大動盪方面表現出色。我們相信，我們敬業的管理團隊、有利的終端市場以及領先的技術和解決方案將使我們保持韌性並提高獲利能力。我們 12 個月的 77 億美元積壓訂單為成長提供了可見性和支持。

The 12-month backlog has consistently grown over the past four years despite a weaker North American rail market and a volatile macro economy. This is in part due to the high level of recurring revenues that our products command in the marketplace. Our track record of strong operating margin expansion across the business is the evidence of our ability to deliver productivity, manage costs and price for value we deliver.

儘管北美鐵路市場疲軟且宏觀經濟動盪，但過去四年來，12 個月的積壓訂單量一直持續成長。部分原因是我們的產品在市場上擁有較高的經常性收入。我們整個業務的強勁營業利潤率擴張記錄證明了我們能夠提供生產力，管理成本和提供價值的價格。

And finally, we have also demonstrated our ability to consistently generate strong cash flows with cash conversion averaging 98% over the last five years. We expect that our execution, combined with the strength of our business, leading products and technologies will result in a TAP being resilient through economic cycles, delivering profitable growth and driving superior shareholder returns.

最後，我們也證明了我們能夠持續產生強勁的現金流，過去五年的現金轉換率平均達到 98%。我們期望，我們的執行力，加上我們業務的實力、領先的產品和技術，將使 TAP 在經濟週期中保持彈性，實現盈利性成長並推動卓越的股東回報。

With that, I'll turn the call over to John to review the quarter, segment results and our overall financial performance. John?

說完這些，我將把電話轉給約翰，來回顧本季、分部業績以及我們的整體財務表現。約翰？

Thanks, Rafael, and hello, everyone. Turning to slide 9. I will review our fourth quarter results in more detail. Sales for the fourth quarter were $2.58 billion, which reflects a 2.3% increase versus the prior year. Sales growth in the quarter was driven by the Transit segment.

謝謝，拉斐爾，大家好。翻到第 9 張投影片。我將更詳細地回顧我們第四季的業績。第四季銷售額為 25.8 億美元，較上年成長 2.3%。本季的銷售成長主要得益於 Transit 部門。

Excluding the impact of currency, sales were up nearly 3%. For the quarter, GAAP operating income was $334 million, the increase was driven by higher sales and improved gross margin as we focus on continuous improvement in productivity.

除去匯率的影響，銷售額成長了近 3%。本季度，GAAP 營業收入為 3.34 億美元，成長主要得益於我們專注於持續提高生產力，銷售額增加和毛利率提高。

Adjusted operating margin for Q4 was 16.9%, which was largely flat to prior year. GAAP earnings per diluted share was $1.23, which was up 2.5% versus the year ago quarter. During the quarter, we had net pretax charges of $32 million for restructuring which were primarily related to our Integration 2.0 and portfolio optimization initiatives to further integrate and streamline Wabtec's operations.

第四季調整後營業利益率為 16.9%，與上年基本持平。以美國通用會計準則計算，每股攤薄收益為 1.23 美元，較去年同期成長 2.5%。在本季度，我們的重組淨稅前費用為 3,200 萬美元，主要與我們的 Integration 2.0 和投資組合優化計劃有關，旨在進一步整合和簡化 Wabtec 的營運。

In the quarter, adjusted earnings per diluted share was $1.68, up 9.1% versus the prior year. Overall, Wabtec delivered another solid quarter, demonstrating the underlying strength of the business.

本季度，調整後每股攤薄收益為 1.68 美元，較上年增長 9.1%。整體而言，Wabtec 又一個季度表現穩健，展現出其業務的潛在實力。

Turning to slide 10. Let's review our product lines in more detail. Fourth quarter consolidated sales were up 2.3%. Our services sales were down 15.9% as expected, and as we discussed in our third quarter call. This was driven by the timing of moderations and overhauls and was the reverse of the growth that we saw in the third quarter for our services business. For the full year, services had revenue growth of 3.6%. Equipment sales were up 41.8% from last year's fourth quarter. This increase was expected and was also the reverse of what we saw in the third quarter.

翻到第 10 張投影片。讓我們更詳細地回顧一下我們的產品線。第四季綜合銷售額成長2.3%。我們的服務銷售額下降了 15.9%，正如我們在第三季電話會議上所討論的那樣。這是由調整和改革時機所驅動的，與我們服務業務在第三季的成長相反。全年服務收入成長3.6%。設備銷售額比去年第四季成長了41.8%。這一增長是預料之中的，並且與我們在第三季度看到的情況相反。

For the year, equipment sales were up a very strong 17.5%. The component sales were up 4.8% versus last year due to a higher international freight car sales and Industrial Products growth, which was partially offset by the lower North American railcar build.

全年設備銷售額強勁成長17.5%。由於國際貨車銷量和工業產品成長，零件銷售額較去年同期增長了 4.8%，但北美鐵路車輛產量下降部分抵消了這一增長。

Digital Intelligence sales were down 1.4% from last year. This was driven by softness in North America, which was partially offset by our international sales of PTC, next-generation onboard products and digital mining products. In our Transit segment, sales were up 7.1%.

數位智慧銷售額比去年下降了 1.4%。這是由於北美市場的疲軟所致，但我們的 PTC、下一代機載產品和數位採礦產品的國際銷售部分抵消了這一影響。在我們的運輸部門，銷售額成長了 7.1%。

Moving to slide 11. GAAP gross margin was 30.9%, which was up 0.6-percentage-points from fourth quarter last year. Adjusted gross margin was up 0.8-percentage-points during the quarter. Our team continues to execute well by driving operational productivity and lean initiatives.

移至第 11 張投影片。GAAP毛利率為30.9%，較去年第四季上升0.6個百分點。本季調整後毛利率上升了0.8個百分點。我們的團隊透過提高營運效率和精益舉措繼續表現出色。

Turning to slide 12. For the fourth quarter, GAAP operating margin was 12.9%, which was up 0.7 percentage-points versus last year. Adjusted operating margin was largely flat year-over-year at 16.9%. The [GAAP] and adjusted SG&A expenses were up versus the prior year. Engineering expense was $51 million, $10 million lower than Q4 last year.

翻到第 12 張投影片。第四季，GAAP營業利益率為12.9%，較去年同期上升0.7個百分點。調整後營業利益率與去年同期大致持平，為 16.9%。[GAAP] 及調整後的銷售、一般及行政費用較前一年上升。工程費用為 5,100 萬美元，比去年第四季低 1,000 萬美元。

Now let's take a look at the segment results on slide 13, starting with the Freight segment. As I already discussed, Freight segment sales were largely flat during the quarter. The fourth quarter sales were impacted by a shift of our locomotive and mod production to the first half in an effort to level load our quarterly production.

現在讓我們來看看投影片 13 上的細分結果，從貨運細分開始。正如我已經討論過的，本季貨運部門的銷售額基本上持平。為了平衡季度生產負荷，我們將機車和改裝車生產轉移至上半年，影響了第四季的銷售。

GAAP segment operating income was $273 million, driving an operating margin of 15.2%, up 1.6 percentage-points versus last year. GAAP operating income included $9 million of restructuring costs primarily related to our Integration 2.0 and portfolio optimization initiatives. Adjusted operating income for the Freight segment was $348 million, up 0.9% versus the prior year.

GAAP部門營業收入為2.73億美元，營業利潤率為15.2%，較去年同期上升1.6個百分點。GAAP 營業收入包括 900 萬美元的重組成本，主要與我們的 Integration 2.0 和投資組合最佳化計畫有關。貨運部門調整後營業收入為 3.48 億美元，較上年增長 0.9%。

Adjusted operating margin in the Freight segment was 19.4%, up 0.1 percentage-points from prior year. The increase was driven by improved gross margin, even despite significant mix headwinds and largely offset by a similar increase in our operating expenses expressed as a percentage of revenue.

貨運部門調整後營業利益率為19.4%，較前一年上升0.1個百分點。儘管面臨巨大的產品組合阻力，但成長主要由毛利率提高所推動，且很大程度上被以收入百分比表示的營業費用類似增長所抵消。

Finally, segment 12-month backlog was $5.58 billion, our 12-month backlog was up 5.4% on a constant currency basis, while multiyear backlog of $18 billion was up 3.2%.

最後，分部 12 個月積壓訂單為 55.8 億美元，以固定匯率計算，我們 12 個月的積壓訂單增加了 5.4%，而 180 億美元的多年積壓訂單增加了 3.2%。

Turning to slide 14. Transit segment sales were up 7.1% at $789 million. When adjusting for foreign currency, transit sales were up 7.5%. GAAP operating income was $103 million. Restructuring costs related to Integration 2.0 and portfolio optimization were $21 million in Q4. Adjusted segment operating income was $130 million. Adjusted operating income as a percent of revenue was 16.4%, up 1.5 percentage-points.

翻到第 14 張投影片。運輸部門銷售額成長 7.1%，達到 7.89 億美元。經外匯調整後，過境銷售額成長了 7.5%。GAAP 營業收入為 1.03 億美元。第四季與 Integration 2.0 和投資組合最佳化相關的重組成本為 2,100 萬美元。調整後分部營業收入為 1.3 億美元。調整後營業收入佔收入的百分比為16.4％，上升1.5個百分點。

During the quarter, adjusted gross margin was up behind favorable mix and integration 2.0 savings. Gross margins were partially offset by operating expenses being higher as a percentage of revenue. Finally, Transit segment 12-month backlog for the quarter was $2.1 billion. Our 12-month backlog was up 5.6% on a constant currency basis, while the multiyear backlog was up 5.0%.

在本季度，調整後的毛利率因有利的產品組合和整合 2.0 的成本節約而上升。毛利率因營業費用佔收入的百分比較高而部分抵銷。最後，運輸部門本季 12 個月的積壓訂單為 21 億美元。以固定匯率計算，我們 12 個月的積壓訂單增加了 5.6%，而多年期積壓訂單增加了 5.0%。

Now let's turn to our financial position on slide 15. Fourth quarter cash flow generation was very strong at $723 million resulting in total year cash from operations of $1.83 billion, an increase of 52.7%. During the year, cash flow benefited from significantly higher net income, improved working capital and the receipt of a tax refund.

現在讓我們來看看第 15 頁的財務狀況。第四季的現金流非常強勁，達到 7.23 億美元，導致全年經營現金總額達到 18.3 億美元，成長 52.7%。本年度，現金流量受惠於淨收入大幅增加、營運資本改善以及退稅的收到。

Our balance sheet and financial position continue to be very strong as evidenced by first, our liquidity position, which ended the quarter at $2.21 billion and our net debt leverage ratio, which ended the fourth quarter at 1.5 times. The increase of our year-end cash and the reduction in our year-end leverage ratio was in anticipation of funding the acquisition of Evident's Inspection Technologies division that we announced on January 13, which is expected to close in the first half of the year. During the year, we repurchased nearly $1.1 billion of our shares and paid $140 million in dividends.

我們的資產負債表和財務狀況持續保持強勁，首先體現在我們的流動性狀況上，本季末為 22.1 億美元，其次是我們的淨債務槓桿率，第四季末為 1.5 倍。我們年末現金的增加和年末槓桿率的下降是為了準備收購 Evident 的檢測技術部門，我們於 1 月 13 日宣布了這一消息，預計該收購將於今年上半年完成。本年度，我們回購了近 11 億美元的股票，並支付了 1.4 億美元的股利。

As a result of our performance in 2024, and our confidence in the future, our Board of Directors approved a 25% increase in the quarterly dividend and in early December, increased our existing share repurchase authorization by $1 billion. We continue to allocate capital in a disciplined way to maximize returns of our shareholders.

由於我們在 2024 年的業績以及對未來的信心，我們的董事會批准將季度股息提高 25%，並在 12 月初將現有的股票回購授權增加了 10 億美元。我們繼續以嚴謹的方式分配資本，以最大化股東的回報。

Moving to slide 16. I would like to touch on the progress we made against our Integration 2.0 and portfolio optimization initiatives. With regards to Integration 2.0, recall that this was a restructuring program that anticipated onetime expenses of between $135 million to $165 million, that would yield an incremental $75 million to $90 million of run rate cost savings by the end of 2025.

移至投影片 16。我想談談我們在整合 2.0 和投資組合優化計劃方面取得的進展。關於 Integration 2.0，回想一下，這是一項重組計劃，預計一次性費用在 1.35 億美元至 1.65 億美元之間，到 2025 年底將產生 7500 萬至 9000 萬美元的增量運行成本節約。

With the program to date restructuring expenses of $146 million, we achieved $87 million of run rate savings as we exited 2024 and we now expect $97 million of run rate savings as we exit 2025 at an estimated cost of $161 million.

該計劃迄今為止的重組費用為 1.46 億美元，我們在 2024 年結束時實現了 8700 萬美元的運行率節約，現在我們預計在 2025 年結束時將實現 9700 萬美元的運行率節約，預計成本為 1.61 億美元。

Regarding our portfolio optimization initiative, we have executed against all planned dispositions of the nonstrategic product lines that were identified to help improve our focus and profitability while reducing manufacturing complexity.

關於我們的產品組合優化計劃，我們已根據非戰略產品線的所有計劃部署進行了執行，這些產品線被確定為有助於提高我們的重點和盈利能力，同時降低製造複雜性。

Under the program, we have incurred $56 million of expenses versus an expected $85 million. Overall, we could not be happier with the progress our team has made against our Integration 2.0 and portfolio optimization goals. It helped position Wabtec to realize the multiyear margin expansion that Rafael mentioned earlier.

根據該計劃，我們已花費 5,600 萬美元，而預期為 8,500 萬美元。整體而言，我們對團隊在實現 Integration 2.0 和投資組合最佳化目標方面所取得的進展感到非常高興。它幫助 Wabtec 實現了拉斐爾之前提到的多年利潤擴張。

Now moving to slide 17 to quickly recap the year. Overall, the team delivered a great year for all our stakeholders. We drove revenue growth of 7.3%, expanded our operating margins by 1.9 percentage-points, generated robust cash flow and grew adjusted EPS by 27.7%. The resiliency of the business and strong execution provides us with a solid foundation for profitable growth as we enter 2025.

現在轉到第 17 張投影片來快速回顧這一年。總體而言，團隊為所有利害關係人帶來了豐碩的一年。我們的營收成長了 7.3%，營業利潤率提高了 1.9 個百分點，產生了強勁的現金流，調整後每股收益成長了 27.7%。業務的彈性和強大的執行力為我們進入2025年時的獲利成長奠定了堅實的基礎。

With that, I'd like to turn the call back over to Rafael.

說完這些，我想把電話轉回拉斐爾。

Thanks, John. Now let's turn to slide 18 to discuss our 2025 outlook and guidance. We believe that the underlying customer demand for our products and solutions continues across the business. Our international pipeline remains strong in our 12-month and multiyear backlogs provide visibility for profitable growth ahead. The team is committed to driving top line growth and margin expansion in 2025.

謝謝，約翰。現在讓我們翻到第 18 張幻燈片來討論我們對 2025 年的展望和指導。我們相信，客戶對我們的產品和解決方案的潛在需求將持續貫穿整個業務。我們的國際通路在 12 個月和多年的積壓訂單中依然保持強勁，為未來的獲利成長提供了可見性。該團隊致力於在 2025 年推動營收成長和利潤擴大。

With these factors in mind, we expect 2025 sales of between $10.7 billion to $11 billion, which is up 5% at the midpoint from last year and adjusted EPS to be between $8.35 and $8.75, up 13% at the midpoint. We also expect cash flow conversion to be greater than 90% despite delivering 117% cash conversion in the prior year. I'm confident that Wabtec is well positioned to drive profitable growth and maximize shareholder returns in 2025 and beyond. And because of our confidence in the future, I'd like to take the opportunity to update our long term guidance.

考慮到這些因素，我們預計 2025 年的銷售額將在 107 億美元至 110 億美元之間，比去年的中位數成長 5%，調整後的每股盈餘將在 8.35 美元至 8.75 美元之間，中位數成長 13%。儘管去年的現金轉換率達到了 117%，但我們預計現金流轉換率將超過 90%。我相信，Wabtec 有能力在 2025 年及以後推動獲利成長並實現股東回報最大化。由於我們對未來充滿信心，我想藉此機會更新我們的長期指導。

Moving to slide 20. Let's discuss our new five-year plan in more details. Over the last three years, we executed our previous five year plan ahead of expectations. We generated strong cash flows and apply that cash towards maximizing shareholder returns. We strengthened the balance sheet and invested in the business for future growth. Looking forward, our priorities and our value creation framework remain unchanged.

移至第 20 張投影片。讓我們更詳細地討論我們的新五年計劃。過去三年，我們提前完成了先前的五年計劃，超出了預期。我們產生了強勁的現金流，並利用這些現金來最大化股東回報。我們加強了資產負債表，並對業務進行了投資以實現未來成長。展望未來，我們的優先事項和價值創造框架保持不變。

As we look forward, our team will continue to leverage our leadership position. We expect to grow our business faster than the industry and to deliver mid-single-digit organic top line growth. We are committed to driving over 350 basis points of margin expansion and we expect to achieve double-digit EPS growth over that period. Finally, we also expect to generate strong cash flow that will average greater than 90% cash conversion through 2029.

展望未來，我們的團隊將繼續發揮我們的領導地位。我們預計我們的業務成長速度將快於行業平均水平，並實現中等個位數的有機營收成長。我們致力於推動利潤率擴大 350 個基點以上，並預計在此期間實現兩位數的每股盈餘成長。最後，我們也預期產生強勁的現金流，到 2029 年平均現金轉換率將超過 90%。

Now let's move to page 21. Let's spend a minute to discuss what we expect to achieve in terms of organic revenue growth and incremental margin expansion over the next five years. Starting with revenue growth, we expect our revenue to grow at an average annual growth rate of mid-single digits. We see three drivers to reach this mid-single-digit growth.

現在我們翻到第 21 頁。讓我們花一點時間來討論我們期望在未來五年內在有機收入成長和增量利潤擴大方面實現什麼目標。從收入成長開始，我們預計我們的收入將以中等個位數的年均成長率成長。我們認為有三個驅動因素推動這一中等個位數成長。

First is the underlying industry's organic growth rate in the low single digits. Second, North America has one of the oldest suites in the world. This combined with growing international opportunities will drive locomotive and modernization sales over the next year. Finally, the innovation that we provide to our customers enhances life cycle value by driving improved efficiencies and ultimately delivering an attractive return for their investment.

首先是基礎產業的有機成長率處於低個位數。其次，北美擁有世界上最古老的套房之一。再加上日益增長的國際機遇，這一趨勢將在明年推動機車和現代化產品的銷售。最後，我們為客戶提供的創新透過提高效率來提升生命週期價值，並最終為他們的投資帶來豐厚的回報。

Next, let's talk about margin expansion. As mentioned earlier, we see even more cost opportunities in the next five years than we did three years ago. Through our strong focus on simplification and continuous improvement combined with capital investments in high-return projects and pricing for value, we expect to drive margin improvement of greater than 350 basis points over the next five years.

接下來我們來談談保證金擴大。如同先前所提到的，我們認為未來五年的成本機會比三年前還要多。透過高度重視簡化和持續改進，並結合對高回報項目的資本投資和價值定價，我們預計未來五年利潤率將提高 350 個基點以上。

Moving to page 22. I'd like to discuss our new Integration 3.0 and portfolio optimization initiatives as the enabler to the greater than 350 basis points margin expansion. As we have discussed, Integration 2.0 was a success, and we have momentum as we move into our Integration 3.0 initiative. The details of this effort are seen on this page and will focus on simplifying, streamlining and consolidating our operations.

移至第 22 頁。我想討論我們的新 Integration 3.0 和投資組合最佳化計劃，這是利潤率擴大 350 個基點以上的推動因素。正如我們所討論的，Integration 2.0 取得了成功，並且我們在向 Integration 3.0 計劃邁進時也擁有良好的發展勢頭。此項工作的詳情可在本頁查看，重點是簡化、精簡和鞏固我們的營運。

To achieve these goals, we will take what we learned from our first program and leverage our strong execution and continuous improvement mindset to deliver on a goal of between $100 million to $125 million of additional run rate savings by 2028. We're also announcing today our second phase of portfolio optimization.

為了實現這些目標，我們將吸取從第一個專案中學到的經驗教訓，利用我們強大的執行力和持續改進的思維方式，實現到 2028 年額外節省 1 億至 1.25 億美元的目標。我們今天也宣布了投資組合優化的第二階段。

We will continue to prune product lines that are not a strategic fit. By exiting those product lines, we will improve our focus and profitability while reducing manufacturing complexity. Sales from these product lines totaled about $100 million of sales in 2024 and represented a lower-than-average margin profile.

我們將繼續削減不符合策略的產品線。透過退出這些產品線，我們將提高重點和獲利能力，同時降低製造複雜性。2024 年這些產品線的銷售額總計約為 1 億美元，利潤率低於平均值。

Now let's wrap on slide 23. As you heard today, our team continues to deliver on our value creation framework, thanks in large part to our resilient installed base, world-class team, innovative technologies and our continued focus on our customers.

現在我們結束第 23 張投影片。正如大家今天所聽到的，我們的團隊繼續履行我們的價值創造框架，這在很大程度上要歸功於我們富有彈性的安裝基礎、世界一流的團隊、創新的技術以及我們對客戶的持續關注。

With solid underlying demand for our products and technologies and rigorous focus on continuous improvement and cost management, we feel strong about the company's future, thereby maximizing our shareholders' returns.

由於我們的產品和技術有著堅實的潛在需求，並且嚴格注重持續改進和成本管理，我們對公司的未來充滿信心，從而最大限度地提高股東的回報。

With that, I'd like to thank our team for their great work this year and their continued commitment to drive top quartile returns. I will now turn the call over to Kyra to begin the Q&A portion of our discussion. Kyra?

最後，我要感謝我們團隊今年的出色工作以及他們為實現最高四分位回報所做的持續承諾。現在我將把電話轉給 Kyra，開始我們討論的問答部分。凱拉？

Thank you, Rafael. We will now move on to questions. (Event Instructions) Operator, we are now ready for our first question.

謝謝你，拉斐爾。我們現在開始回答問題。（活動指導）接線員，我們現在可以回答第一個問題了。

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

我們現在開始問答環節。（操作員指令）

Rob Wertheimer, Melius Research.

Rob Wertheimer，Melius Research。

I actually wanted to start one out with a strategic question on your long-term framework. Just for clarity, you have 350 bps now. I think it was 275 bps at the midpoint on the last framework and the base year is updated, right, from '22 to '25. So sort of stack the margin improvement from that period along with the [350 bps ] versus the [275 bps ]. That's the one question.

我實際上想從一個有關您的長期框架的戰略問題開始。為了清楚起見，您現在有 350 bps。我認為上一個框架的中點是 275 個基點，基準年已更新，從 22 年更新至 25 年。因此，將該期間的利潤率改善與 [350 個基點] 進行比較，[275基點]。這是一個問題。

And then more strategically, you look at that walk on slide 21, and you have 80 bps, 85 bps of margin expansion from revenue growth. I guess that's where pricing is embedded. I'm not sure if that's all pricing. And so how are you thinking about your pricing power strategically? Do you feel like that's fully embedded in the guide? Do you have room to flex? I'm just curious about hitting that pricing.

從策略角度來看，您會看到第 21 張投影片中顯示，營收成長帶來了 80 個基點、85 個基點的利潤率擴張。我猜這就是定價的根源。我不確定這是否就是全部定價。那麼，您是如何從策略角度考慮自己的定價權的呢？您是否覺得這已完全融入指南中？你還有靈活性嗎？我只是對這個定價感到好奇。

Rob, let me start, and then I'll pass to John here. But I'll start with fundamentals of the business are strong. We finished '24, every single one of our business is driving profitable growth. Orders in '24 were 20% higher than 23%, and we have strong coverage going to 2025. The quality of our backlog has continued to improve.

羅布，讓我先開始，然後我會把話題交給約翰。但我首先要說的是，我們的業務基本面十分強勁。我們完成了24年的運營，我們的每一項業務都在推動獲利成長。'24 年的訂單量比 23% 高出 20%，而且我們對 2025 年的覆蓋範圍很廣。我們的積壓工作品質持續提高。

I'd say there's a sense we can drive -- simplification, cost out across the business. The momentum is there, and this will drive on our cycle of profitable growth for Wabtec. I think we've got a portfolio that's well positioned to provide customers a significant payback. Our shrink fleets are old. So we have here a significant opportunity to continue to price for the value that we deliver out there, and we continue to expand that visibility in terms of coverage.

我想說，我們可以推動一種理念──簡化，降低整個業務的成本。這種勢頭已經存在，這將推動 Wabtec 的獲利成長週期。我認為我們的投資組合能夠為客戶提供豐厚的回報。我們的收縮車隊已經老舊了。因此，我們在這裡有一個重大的機會來繼續為我們所提供的價值定價，並且我們將繼續在覆蓋範圍方面擴大這種可見性。

The coverage for this year is aligned with the coverage we've had for the previous three years. And as we provide this guidance, we see us starting some of that really margin expansion stronger I had here of the first year. John?

今年的報道與前三年的報導一致。當我們提供該指導時，我們看到我們開始實現第一年中真正更強勁的利潤擴張。約翰？

All right, Rob, let's talk about margins in the long-term plan. So you're absolutely right. When we look at the first five year plan that we kind of truncated at three years, we were expecting a midpoint of 275 basis points we overachieved that in a three year period of time versus the five. And now we're looking to deliver another 300 -- more than 350 basis points for the next five years, and that's using 2024 as the base, Rob. I think the biggest point here is to point out that we see more opportunity today than we did three years ago in terms of our ability to grow margins.

好的，羅布，我們來談談長期計劃中的利潤率。所以你完全正確。當我們回顧第一個五年計畫時，我們將其縮短為三年，我們預計中間點為 275 個基點，與五年相比，我們在三年內超額完成了這一目標。現在我們希望在未來五年內再實現 300 到 350 個基點以上的成長，這是以 2024 年為基準，羅布。我認為這裡最重要的一點是，就提高利潤的能力而言，我們今天看到的機會比三年前更多。

We've got a lot of experience with it, and we see more of that opportunity now that we've been through the last three years. So we feel real good about that. Rob, you asked a little bit about how we're going to deliver the 350 basis points. You started out with -- on the pricing, but I'd like to go back and talk a little bit about the cost side, is when we look at it, the way we're going to do it is similar to the way that we did the first 300 basis points over the last three years. Is about 2/3 of it is going to be driven by our focus on cost management.

我們在這方面累積了豐富的經驗，經過過去三年的努力，我們看到了更多這樣的機會。因此我們對此感到非常高興。羅布，你問了一點關於我們如何實現 350 個基點的問題。您開始討論定價，但我想回過頭來談談成本方面，當我們看待它時，我們要做的方式與過去三年中我們所做的前 300 個基點的方式類似。其中約2/3將由我們對成本管理的關注所驅動。

And that comes in several flavors. One you're very well aware of, and that's Integration, will now be 3.0 as well as continuous improvement and our further propagation of lean throughout the organization. And then finally, we get the absorption benefit and we also expect SG&A to grow at a slower rate over that period of time than our revenue.

它有多種形式。大家非常清楚的一點是，整合現在將是 3.0，同時也將持續改進並在整個組織內進一步傳播精實。最後，我們獲得吸收效益，我們預期銷售、一般及行政開支在那段期間內的成長率將低於我們的收入。

So that leaves the other third. And I would say, Rob, that the other 1/3 is really driven by innovation. And our ability to continue to innovate and bring products out to the -- to our customers that will drive value for them and a return on investment that they're looking for and which allows us to drive increased value and what we would call, Rob, is pricing for value.

所以還剩下另外三分之一。羅布，我想說的是，剩下的 1/3 實際上是由創新驅動的。我們有能力繼續創新，將產品推向客戶，為他們創造價值，為他們帶來他們所期望的投資回報，這使我們能夠提高價值，羅布，我們稱之為價值定價。

The other part of pricing is really cost recovery from inflation. And as we've talked about, a lot of that is automatically built into price escalators that we have across over 60% of our revenue. So again, we feel real good about where we're at today, what we see today versus what we saw three years ago in our ability to drive over that 350 basis points in the next several years.

定價的另一部分實際上是通貨膨脹帶來的成本回收。正如我們所討論的，許多因素都自動內建了價格調整機制中，這占我們收入的 60% 以上。因此，我們對目前的狀況感到非常滿意，與三年前相比，我們今天看到的是我們有能力在未來幾年內超過 350 個基點。

Angel Castillo, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的安吉爾‧卡斯蒂略 (Angel Castillo)。

I wanted to just maybe go back to -- when you think about the kind of margin opportunity, maybe focused more so on the plus side, what kind of leverage do you see or bucket to kind of drive incremental upside? I know it's early, you just announced the $100 million to $125 million, but just to the extent that you see incremental opportunities, as you noted, to drive more margin expansion. Can you just kind of lay out those buckets for us?

我想也許回到——當您考慮利潤機會時，也許更多地關注積極的一面，您看到什麼樣的槓桿或桶可以推動增量上漲？我知道現在還為時過早，您剛剛宣布了 1 億至 1.25 億美元的目標，但正如您所說，您看到了增量機會，可以推動利潤率進一步擴大。您能為我們把這些桶子擺放好嗎？

Let me just start with the strong pipeline of opportunities we have, which really provides not just strong coverage in '25, but we're really strengthening the visibility beyond that.

讓我先從我們擁有的強大機會開始，這不僅在'25年提供了強大的覆蓋範圍，而且我們確實增強了超越這一點的可見性。

As you saw, I mean, in the fourth quarter alone, we've got over $1 billion of orders for new locomotives and modernizations. So that demand continues. International growth, it's really a very strong market for us. We are winning. We're winning in Africa, winning Kazakhstan, in Brazil, and Chile and Australia.

正如您所看到的，僅在第四季度，我們就獲得了超過 10 億美元的新機車和現代化改造訂單。因此這種需求仍在持續。國際成長對我們來說確實是一個非常強勁的市場。我們正在勝利。我們在非洲、哈薩克、巴西、智利和澳洲都取得了勝利。

And we're continuing to drive momentum. A lot of that growth, especially in international strengthens the visibility here into '26, '27 and moving forward. In North America, we continue to see demand on the new locomotives and Mods. Our customers continue to invest for improved costs. North America sitting in one of the oldest fleets for relevant markets we serve and the need to invest here for continued reliability and reducing cost is there.

我們將繼續推動這一發展勢頭。大量的成長，特別是國際領域的成長，增強了 2026 年、2027 年及未來的可見性。在北美，我們持續看到對新型機車和改裝機車的需求。我們的客戶不斷投資以改善成本。北美擁有我們所服務的相關市場中最古老的船隊之一，因此需要在這裡進行投資，以保持可靠性並降低成本。

I think the other piece is the quality of the backlog. It's stronger. I think really the margin rates in the overall business, we'll benefit from that. On the top of that, you add the fact that and we've really been keen on driving lean efforts, cost actions driven by simplification. John spoke about like really renewed a stronger sense of cost-out opportunities and with Integration 3.0 and portfolio optimization, this will drive another cycle of significant profitable growth for Wabtec.

我認為另一個因素是積壓工作的品質。它更強大。我認為我們確實會從整體業務的利潤率中受益。除此之外，你還要加上一個事實，那就是我們一直熱衷於推動精實工作，透過簡化來降低成本。約翰談到了真正重新增強對成本削減機會的認識，並且透過 Integration 3.0 和投資組合優化，這將推動 Wabtec 又一個週期的顯著盈利增長。

So with that, we'll continue to see variation on quarters, but we see strong progress and momentum continues.

因此，我們將繼續看到季度變化，但我們看到了強勁的進展和持續的勢頭。

That's very helpful. And maybe just to clarify on the strong North America locomotive demand. Are you seeing any step change in terms of the activity or desire to kind of replace equipment there? And the 1% to 2%. Is that -- the renewal is that just basically a continuation of what you've seen in the last couple of years? Or do you anticipate it returning to kind of historical levels of replacement?

這非常有幫助。也許只是為了澄清北美強勁的機車需求。您是否看到那裡的活動或更換設備的願望有任何變化？以及 1% 到 2% 的比例。這是——更新基本上是您在過去幾年所見情況的延續嗎？或者您預計它會恢復到歷史替代水平嗎？

Let me be just very specific there. If you look at the mods and new locomotives combined, that's still growing at high single digits as we go into 2025. What it changes there is really some customers that are investing now and investing for new, but that's not a change from going from mods to new, it's really an element of when customers buy and the volumes there in that context. So the combination of both for North America continued to grow in the high single digits.

讓我非常具體地講一下。如果將改裝機車和新型機車的數量結合起來看，到 2025 年，這一數字仍將以高個位數增長。它所發生的變化是，確實有一些客戶現在在投資，並且投資新產品，但這並不是從改裝到新產品的變化，它實際上是客戶購買時的因素以及在這種背景下的數量。因此，北美地區的兩個總和繼續以高個位數成長。

In terms of -- as I look forward, we're continuing to invest in technology, as John described, what he saw in terms of the modernization of the FDL advantage of locomotives, you're going to see a bigger and better value proposition going to the EVO platform, which you're going to get like up to 7% of fuel efficiency. So we see that as an opportunity to actually continue to build momentum there.

就我展望未來而言，我們將繼續在技術方面進行投資，正如約翰所描述的，就 FDL 機車優勢的現代化而言，您將看到更大、更好的價值主張轉向 EVO 平台，您將獲得高達 7% 的燃油效率。因此，我們認為這是一個繼續增強勢頭的機會。

Saree Boroditsky, Jefferies.

薩裡‧博羅迪茨基 (Saree Boroditsky)，傑富瑞 (Jefferies)。

Maybe just kind of trying a little bit to digital. Your outlook contemplates '25 for demand in North America. Maybe what the feedback has been on digital and why the North America has been softer here? And what can drive this market for long-term growth?

或許只是稍微嘗試一下數位化。您的展望考慮了 25 年北美的需求。也許關於數位化的反饋是什麼以及為什麼北美在這方面更為疲軟？那麼什麼可以推動這個市場長期成長？

Well, first, I think strong close for our business. As I think about how we've really been churning that around with a softer North American market, but I think we've continued to talk about stronger international demand. The business closed the year with $1 billion in orders. That's one of the strongest in the last five years, and we see higher demand for onboard locomotive products, digital mining technologies despite of this softer demand in North America.

嗯，首先，我認為我們的業務進展順利。當我想到我們如何在北美市場疲軟的情況下扭轉這種局面時，我認為我們仍在談論更強勁的國際需求。該公司當年的訂單金額為 10 億美元。這是過去五年來最強勁的成長之一，儘管北美的需求疲軟，但我們看到對車載機車產品和數位採礦技術的需求增加。

And we continue to see a pipeline here with higher demands from international, and that's both PTC, the onboard locomotive products, and when you think about it, the softer demand in the US is really the discretionary element of OpEx and some of the impact we've had from the commuter signaling business.

我們繼續看到來自國際的更高需求，這既包括 PTC，也包括車載機車產品，想想看，美國需求疲軟實際上是營運支出的可自由支配因素，以及我們從通勤號誌業務中受到的一些影響。

I think recurring revenues and short-term comparability continue to be here a focus area. But this business has really grown profitably last year, and it's off to growing profitably again in 2025. So positive dynamics there. International really leading the growth here.

我認為經常性收入和短期可比較性仍然是重點關注的領域。但這項業務去年確實實現了獲利成長，並將在 2025 年再次實現獲利成長。那裡的動態非常積極。國際確實引領了這裡的成長。

And maybe just a little bit of Freight margins. You have been guiding the weaker in the fourth quarter. So I guess it's not that surprising. But it does fall really strong results in the first nine months of the year. Can you just talk about how I think about the step-up in Freight margins since the first quarter and full year 2025? And how do you think about mix given the expectation for higher new locomotive shipments and lower months?

或許只是一點點運費利潤。你一直在引導第四節表現較弱的隊伍。因此我想這並不那麼令人驚訝。但今年前九個月的業績確實非常強勁。您能談談我對自第一季和 2025 年全年以來貨運利潤率上升的看法嗎？鑑於預計新機車出貨量將增加且月份出貨量將減少，您如何看待產品組合？

This is John. Sorry, I'm glad you pointed out. We've certainly been kind of following along in the cadence of the year that we expected and that had a fair amount of the profitability in the first half -- and so as we get through the fourth quarter, it's exactly what we expected. But Saree, I would also encourage everyone to [divorce] kind of the financial growth from the underlying momentum. The underlying momentum as we exit the fourth quarter is very strong.

這是約翰。抱歉，我很高興你指出了這一點。我們確實一直在按照預期的節奏發展，並且在上半年實現了相當高的盈利水平——因此，當我們進入第四季度時，一切都正如我們所預期的那樣。但是，薩裡，我也鼓勵大家將財務成長與潛在成長動力分開。我們結束第四季時的潛在勢頭非常強勁。

And with that, it gets back to your question with regards to kind of where does margins go from here. We finished this quarter at what? 16.9%. We would expect that to pop back off. Remember why the margin is down this quarter, again it goes back to that cadence as we pulled forward a fair amount of mix with our production schedule into the third quarter.

這樣，我們就回到你的問題：利潤率接下來會如何？我們本季的結束時間是多少？16.9%。我們希望它會彈回來。記住為什麼本季利潤率會下降，由於我們將相當一部分生產計劃提前到第三季度，所以利潤率又回到了那個節奏。

And into the third quarter and out of the fourth quarter. So we saw that sequential decline in the third -- from the third or the fourth quarter, which we expected. And we would expect that to pop back into the first quarter of next year.

進入第三節，結束第四節。因此，我們看到第三季或第四季出現了連續下降，這是我們預期的。我們預計這一數字將在明年第一季回升。

Ken Hoexter, Bank of America.

美國銀行的肯‧霍克斯特 (Ken Hoexter)。

So I want to talk about the 2025 outlook, not the five year, which I think you've delved into a bunch, but maybe the upside, downside given the range that you've talked about. And given the 12-month backlog at I think you said just over $7.5 billion, which is now about, I guess, 70% of the midpoint of your revenue range. Maybe talk a little about those -- the upside, downside of that? And then just on the last question, maybe the move to smooth out your base through the year. You just gave kind of 4Q, 1Q thoughts. Should we see a more level throughout the year? Or do you still have kind of anticipated dips in any given quarter based on that mix flow?

因此，我想談談 2025 年的展望，而不是五年的展望，我認為您已經對此進行了大量探討，但考慮到您談到的範圍，也許還有上行和下行因素。考慮到 12 個月的積壓訂單，我想您說的是剛好超過 75 億美元，我猜這大約是您收入範圍中點的 70%。也許可以稍微談論一下這些——它們的優點和缺點？然後關於最後一個問題，也許這項措施可以讓你全年的基礎更加平穩。您剛剛給了 4Q、1Q 的想法。我們是否應該在全年看到更多的水平？或者，根據該混合流量，您是否仍會預期在某個特定季度會出現下滑？

Ken, this is John. Let's start with the cadence of our earnings next year. And I'm glad you pointed that out is we spent a lot of time and energy in 2024, kind of level loading our factories more for -- in particular, mods and locals. And we did a great job and the operations team did a fantastic job. So what does that mean going forward?

肯，這是約翰。讓我們從明年的盈利節奏開始吧。我很高興你指出我們在 2024 年投入了大量的時間和精力，為我們的工廠提升了水平——特別是針對模組和當地人。我們做得很好，營運團隊也做得非常出色。那麼這對未來意味著什麼？

As we look at the cadence of revenue, kind of first half, second half of 2025, we would expect that growth to be very equal or balanced between the first half. We're always going to have a variation, but we would expect a very balanced level of revenue growth. When we look at earnings, earnings is going to -- first half is going to be more tempered. The growth will be more tempered in the first half than the second half. A couple of reasons for that.

當我們觀察 2025 年上半年和下半年的營收節奏時，我們預期上半年的成長將非常均衡。我們總是會有所變化，但我們預期收入成長水準會非常均衡。當我們查看收益時，我們會發現上半年的收益將會更加溫和。上半年的成長將會比下半年更加緩和。有幾個原因。

As we look at a year ago, we had very strong margin growth in the first half of 3.1 percentage and 0.8 percentage in the back half. And the second reason is, as we look at our programs, such as Integration 3.0 and others productivity programs, we'll see that continue to build margin throughout the year.

回顧一年前，我們上半年的利潤率成長非常強勁，達到 3.1%，下半年成長 0.8%。第二個原因是，當我們審視我們的計劃時，例如 Integration 3.0 和其他生產力計劃，我們會發現這些計劃將在全年繼續建立利潤率。

So again, first half we'll see growth, but more tempered than the second half. And when we look at the first quarter, you should expect first quarter margins to be in line with what they were a year ago. And again, going back to Saree's question, that we'll see margins on a sequential basis rise quite significantly between the fourth and the first quarter.

因此，上半年我們將看到成長，但比下半年更為溫和。當我們看第一季時，你應該預期第一季的利潤率將與一年前持平。再次回到 Saree 的問題，我們將看到第四季和第一季之間的利潤率較上季大幅上升。

Great. And thoughts on the backlog versus the total?

偉大的。您對積壓訂單和總數有何看法？

I'm sorry, Ken?

對不起，肯？

I guess the upside, downside, right, in terms of -- your backlog is about 70% of the total. So maybe your thoughts on what's the upside, downside to that?

我想，好的方面和壞的方面都是對的，就您的積壓工作量而言，大約佔總量的 70%。那麼您認為這有什麼好處和壞處呢？

Yes. So with the coverage -- well, number one, the 12 month backlog, we feel very good about as we look forward. We're at 5.5% on a comparable basis of that backlog. 72% of that is kind of set in orders, right? So that will provide some of that stability against that and some of the variation that we could have in that number.

是的。因此，對於覆蓋範圍——首先，12 個月的積壓訂單，我們感到非常滿意。以可比較基礎計算，我們的積壓訂單量為 5.5%。其中 72% 是已確定的訂單，對嗎？因此，這將提供一定的穩定性，並減少該數字可能產生的一些變化。

The other 28% is our flow business, right? And we've got various things that flow through that business. And when we look at a big piece of -- or a part of that is the freight car build. And with that, we expect and the industry expecting that to be down a little bit. So a little bit of headwind there and there may be some variation depending on how the car build comes out.

另外28%是我們的流量業務，對嗎？我們的業務涉及各種各樣的事情。當我們看一眼其中很大一部分——或者說一部分是貨車製造時。因此，我們和業界都預計這一數字將會略有下降。因此那裡會有一點逆風，並且可能會有一些變化，這取決於汽車的製造。

The other part of the flow business is largely in various aftermarket parts and whatnot, and we expect growth out of that. So we feel very good about the guidance that we put out there in the mid-point, which is around 5%. But we're going to see normal variations, but we feel real good with the backlog that we have as we move into in '25.

流動業務的另一部分主要是各種售後零件市場等等，我們預期這些業務將會成長。因此，我們對中間點給出的指導值（約為 5%）感到非常滿意。但我們會看到正常的變化，但是隨著我們進入'25年，我們對積壓的工作感到非常滿意。

And just can you just clarify? Did you exclude the Evident Inspection revenues or the acquisition from your outlook as well?

您能解釋一下嗎？您是否也將證據檢查收入或收購排除在展望之外了？

Thanks, Ken. Evident is not included in the guidance that we provided this morning at all. There's nothing in there. What we will do is we will update our guidance after we close on that transaction and we would expect that to be probably towards the second -- the latter part of the second quarter. With that, you could expect a fair amount of adjustment in revenue, right, because the asset that we're buying in '24 had revenue of over $430 million.

謝謝，肯。顯然，我們今天早上提供的指導中根本沒有包括這一點。裡面什麼也沒有。我們將要做的是，在完成該交易後更新我們的指導方針，我們預計這可能發生在第二季後半段。這樣一來，您可以預期收入會有相當大的調整，對吧，因為我們在 24 年購買的資產的收入超過 4.3 億美元。

So we get about half a year in there plus the growth on that. In terms of EPS, Rob wouldn't affect that much growth, right? In the first year, a fair amount of interest. We're very pleased with the transaction and that we'll have accretive EPS in the first year, but even more so in the first half. But again, that will be more of a slight increase to EPS.

因此，我們在那裡獲得了大約半年的時間，並且在此基礎上實現了成長。就每股盈餘 (EPS) 而言，Rob 不會影響那麼大的成長，對嗎？第一年，相當多的利息。我們對這筆交易非常滿意，我們在第一年的每股盈餘就會增加，但在上半年則會更加增加。但同樣，這對每股收益來說將是一個小的成長。

Daniel Imbro, Stephens.

丹尼爾伊姆布羅、史蒂芬斯。

John, if we could dig a little more into the revenue growth side. So in the fourth quarter, it does look like organic growth decelerated a bit here. When we look at that deceleration, is that just pricing growth slowing as we lap inflation? Or kind of what was behind that in the fourth quarter? And then similarly, I know you just talked about the backlog, but ending the year up 3%, another bit of a decel.

約翰，我們是否可以更深入地探討收入成長面向。因此，在第四季度，有機成長確實看起來有所放緩。當我們看到這種減速時，這是否只是由於通貨膨脹而導致的價格成長放緩？或者第四季出現這種現象的原因是什麼？同樣地，我知道您剛才談到了積壓問題，但今年年底增長了 3%，這又是一個減速。

Is that just you guys walking away from lower-margin business. Rafael, you mentioned the quality has improved. So if you could just expand on maybe why that has slowed and what you think the right level of growth should be if we were to ex out some of those factors?

這是否就是你們放棄低利潤業務的做法？拉斐爾，您提到品質已經提高了。所以，您是否可以詳細說明為什麼成長速度會放緩，如果我們排除其中一些因素，您認為適當的成長水準應該是多少？

I'll take the first part of that, Daniel. With regards to the revenue growth slowing in the fourth quarter we are not seeing revenue growth slowing. We're not seeing the business momentum slowing. What we're seeing is simply the cadence of how we have produced our products, right, in particular, the mods and locals on production and delivery. And so all of those were expected.

我將討論第一部分，丹尼爾。關於第四季營收成長放緩，我們並沒有看到營收成長放緩。我們並未看到業務成長勢頭放緩。我們看到的只是我們生產產品的節奏，特別是生產和交付方面的模式和當地人的節奏。所有這些都是意料之中的事。

Actually, they were expected four quarters ago when we knew what we were going to be producing in the fourth quarter of this year. So what you're seeing on our top line growth is simply the sales that we have of the production largely on mods and locals.

實際上，當我們知道今年第四季要生產什麼時，我們四個季度前就已經預料到了。因此，您看到的我們的營收成長僅僅是我們產品在改裝車和本地車上的銷售。

But the underlying momentum of the business has been very consistent throughout the four quarters that we have, and we feel real good about that moving into next year, right? And those lead indicators of future growth are the backlog that you mentioned. And the headline is at 3%, but the underlying comparable growth is at 5.5%.

但在過去四個季度中，我們業務的基本勢頭一直非常穩定，我們對明年的前景感到非常樂觀，對嗎？未來成長的領先指標就是您提到的積壓訂單。雖然整體成長率為 3%，但基本可比成長率為 5.5%。

That's right in line with what we would expect at this point of the year. And going back to the comments that we talked about in terms of coverage. We've got a strong coverage that's very comparable to the way it has been in the last three years. So that gives us a lot of confidence as we move into 2025. And as Rafael had mentioned, the orders were up 19.7% this year. So that gives us that forward-looking momentum.

這與我們今年此時的預期完全一致。回到我們在報道方面討論的評論。我們的覆蓋範圍很廣，與過去三年的覆蓋範圍非常相似。因此，這給了我們進入 2025 年的極大信心。正如拉斐爾所說，今年的訂單增加了 19.7%。這給了我們向前看的動力。

And as we mentioned in the key highlights, we had over $1 billion of mod local orders in the fourth quarter alone. So everything is moving in the direction that we would expect to continue on with that underlying momentum that is growing in that mid-single-digit range, regardless of what you're seeing in the fourth quarter with regards to the kind of the accounting view of what we shipped versus what's being consumed.

正如我們在重點介紹中提到的那樣，僅在第四季度，我們的本地改裝訂單就超過 10 億美元。因此，一切都在朝著我們預期的方向發展，無論第四季度我們的出貨量與消費量的會計觀點如何，這種潛在勢頭都將以中等個位數的速度增長。

If you take a little bit of the view on the specific businesses, yes, as per my comments, the backlog, the margin keeps improving there. And it's really across the board, takes transit. I think early last year, I got the question on, was there still room to improve margins. So that goes with 90 basis points of margin improvement last year. Growth was maybe a bit ahead with 6%.

如果您對具體業務稍微看一下，是的，正如我的評論，積壓訂單、利潤率在那裡不斷提高。而且它確實是全面的，需要運輸。我記得去年年初我就遇到這樣的問題：利潤率是否還有提升空間？這與去年 90 個基點的利潤率提高相符。成長率可能略有領先，為 6%。

We'll continue to be prudent there and selective but the team is off to another strong profitable growth here. In transit you look at digital, the strength is there in the waters. Despite of the volume last year, which was still a slight growth, significant margin growth and that team got the eye on the ball there. On the service front, locomotives are running. They are running hard. We have over 18,000 locomotives connected -- so we understand that very well.

我們將繼續保持謹慎和選擇性，但團隊在這裡將再次實現強勁的獲利成長。在運輸過程中，你會看到數字，力量就在水中。儘管去年的銷量仍略有增長，但利潤率卻有顯著增長，因此該團隊對此非常關注。服務方面，機車正在運作。他們正在拼命奔跑。我們擁有超過 18,000 台連網機車，因此我們非常了解這一點。

It's reflected in both the parts that we sell. It's reflected into the maintenance service agreements, and that's well above the growth that you saw for the total business last year. So we feel strong there. International fleets are growing. I think we've highlighted before, 4.5% cash there.

這體現在我們銷售的兩個部分。這反映在維護服務協議中，而且遠高於去年整個業務的成長。所以我們在那裡感覺很強大。國際船隊不斷壯大。我想我們之前已經強調過，現金率為 4.5%。

So that's a positive. I think the only change there was really the combination of mods and CapEx there and even components with all that pressure, we saw a business that grew last year. The team continues to really balance the business based on the realities they face. And we're going after another profitable growth year on that business despite of the market pressures. So all in all, I think really strong momentum, and the business is ready to really drive another strong and significant profitable growth cycle.

這是積極的。我認為唯一的變化實際上是那裡的改造和資本支出的結合，甚至是所有壓力下的組件，我們看到去年業務有所成長。團隊繼續根據他們所面臨的現實情況來平衡業務。儘管面臨市場壓力，我們仍希望該業務能再創獲利成長年。總而言之，我認為這確實是一個強勁的發展勢頭，而且業務已準備好真正推動另一個強勁且顯著的獲利成長週期。

And then, John, a follow-up or maybe all on the pricing strategy question earlier. You talked about pricing for value. I guess, as you increase the technology and you increase your differentiation versus peers, why would that not support just higher levels of organic pricing growth over time since the value you're adding is increasing?

然後，約翰，接下來或可能都是關於先前的定價策略問題。您談到了價值定價。我想，隨著你增加技術並增加與同行的差異化，為什麼隨著時間的推移這不會支持更高水平的有機價格增長，因為你增加的價值正在增加？

And then on the cost side of that equation, I guess, obviously, CPI and inflation remain stubborn, but what do you think is the right underlying cost level of inflation before the cost takeout you're doing? What is the underlying costs growing at?

然後，從這個等式的成本方面來看，我想，顯然，CPI 和通貨膨脹仍然頑固，但您認為在進行成本削減之前，通貨膨脹的正確潛在成本水平是多少？基礎成本以什麼速度成長？

Okay. Let me unpack that in a couple of things. First part is when we say we price for value and a piece of that is you're improving the product. So you're not delivering the same product you did in the previous year. And the value delivered there is really tied to, I'll call it the core fundamentals that drive return for our customers, which is better fuel efficiency, you're able to haul more reliability is up and that's why customers invest.

好的。讓我透過幾件事來解釋一下這個問題。第一部分是當我們說我們為價值定價時，其中一部分是您正在改進產品。因此，您交付的產品與前一年交付的產品不同。這裡提供的價值實際上與為客戶帶來回報的核心基本面息息相關，我稱之為更好的燃油效率，能夠提高運輸的可靠性，這就是客戶投資的原因。

It's not because necessarily we're seeing [carloads]-- growth, especially in North America. And when you think of internationally, it's just where the life cycle cost of our products stand against competition. And really, I think it's very positive to see we're winning. We're winning really against various competitors that are out there, and that's very positive.

這並不一定因為我們看到了[貨車裝載量]的成長，尤其是在北美。當你考慮國際時，這就是我們產品的生命週期成本與競爭對手相比的情況。我確實認為看到我們獲勝是一件非常積極的事。我們確實在與眾多競爭對手的競爭中獲勝，這是非常積極的。

When we talk about inflation and how we price there, John did mention the elements of our contracts and agreements having escalation. When you look at those escalation calluses and efforts we do on driving productivity, cost out efficiency, designing for cost, we come ahead of inflation through that, and we feel strong about continuing to do that. I've got a number of actions.

當我們談論通貨膨脹以及我們如何定價時，約翰確實提到了我們的合約和協議中升級的要素。當你看到我們在提高生產力、降低成本、降低成本設計等方面不斷加強的決心和努力時，你就會知道我們克服了通貨膨脹，我們有信心繼續這樣做。我已經採取了一些行動。

As you see, based on the long-term guidance, we start very strong in terms of the margin expansion. We drive for '25 and that's for me just a function of the teams continuing to really go out there, identify cost-out projects, simplify the footprint we continue to build off of that. So 350 basis points-plus is really the direction here that the mile will continue to execute towards.

如您所見，基於長期指導，我們在利潤率擴張方面開局非常強勁。我們致力於實現『25』目標，對我來說，這只是團隊不斷走出去、確定成本項目、簡化我們在此基礎上繼續建立的足跡的職能。因此，350 個基點以上實際上是英哩將繼續執行的方向。

Jerry Revich, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇（Jerry Revich）。

Can we just talk about the margin performance in transit fourth quarter tends to be your strongest margin quarter generally, but you folks delivered really outsized gains this quarter. How should we be thinking about the sequential cadence for that line of business in '25 and then relative to the 350 basis points that you folks laid out do you expect outperformance in transit over that five-year time frame relative to the 350 basis points total?

我們能否談談運輸業的利潤表現？我們應該如何考慮 25 年該業務線的連續節奏，然後相對於你們列出的 350 個基點，您是否預計在這五年時間範圍內運輸業的表現將優於 350 個基點的總數？

Jerry, let me take the question with regards to Q4 margin performance, and then Rafael can share more on kind of the move of transit into the future. You're absolutely right, Jerry. Businesses tend to have over time cadences. And within our transit business, Q4 operating margins tend to be higher. And that's partly due to the fact that some of our customer, a fair amount of customers are government or quasi government agencies and they get their budgets and they end up spending what's left and typically on higher-margin products.

傑瑞，讓我來回答有關第四季度利潤表現的問題，然後拉斐爾可以分享更多有關未來交通運輸的發展趨勢。你完全正確，傑瑞。企業往往會隨著時間的推移而有節奏地發展。在我們的運輸業務中，第四季的營業利潤率趨於更高。部分原因是我們的部分客戶，相當一部分客戶是政府或準政府機構，他們獲得了預算，最終將剩餘的資金花在了利潤率更高的產品上。

So that's why we see that. Having said that, the more important part of that discussion is the fact that we grew that by 150 basis points in the fourth quarter, up to 16.4%. And the drivers of that jury were mix, well, a couple fold. One was mix. And if you look when we show the aftermarket, aftermarket was up about 11.5%.

這就是我們看到這種情況的原因。話雖如此，討論中更重要的部分是，我們在第四季度將這一比例提高了 150 個基點，達到 16.4%。陪審團中的司機是混合的，嗯，有幾個組合。一種是混合。如果你看我們展示的售後市場，你會發現售後市場上漲了約 11.5%。

And while OE was still up a good amount, where you'd see some of that selectivity that Rafael talked about, very favorable mix dynamics. And so that pushed the margins up, and part of that 150 basis points was due to that. The other has been what we've been talking about for some time on Integration 2.0. We're in that ramp, really that sweet spot of the ramp. And about 2/3 of that is lodging in the transit business, and we're enjoying that margin lift, which certainly will hold as we move into the future.

雖然 OE 仍然有相當大的成長，但您會看到 Rafael 談到的一些選擇性，非常有利的混合動態。這推高了利潤率，150 個基點的部分原因就在於此。另一個是我們關於 Integration 2.0 已經討論過一段時間了。我們正處於那個斜坡上，確實是那個斜坡的最佳位置。其中約三分之二來自運輸業務，我們正在享受利潤率的提升，而這種利潤率在未來肯定會維持下去。

The teams are continuing the significant work to simplify the footprint and further improve margins. The business is becoming more and more competitive as described before, I mean, we're going to continue to see variation quarter-to-quarter. As John mentioned, it could be mix. It could be timing of projects. We'll continue to be selective about growth in the segment but this team is committed, and they are continuing to take action, and you're going to see some significant profit growth again in '25.

該團隊正在繼續進行重要工作，以簡化足跡並進一步提高利潤率。正如之前所描述的，業務競爭越來越激烈，我的意思是，我們將繼續看到季度間的變化。正如約翰所提到的，它可以是混合的。這可能是專案的時間安排。我們將繼續選擇性地實現該領域的成長，但我們的團隊已做出承諾，並將繼續採取行動，您將在25年再次看到顯著的利潤成長。

The backlog is stronger. The business is on track to full year margins and will benefit from Integration 3.0 portfolio optimization and wealth book-to-bill was positive as well as we closed the year. So we're continuing to execute the playbook for that business.

積壓情況更為嚴重。該業務預計將全年利潤，並將受益於 Integration 3.0 投資組合優化，截至年底，財富訂單出貨比也為正值。因此，我們將繼續執行該業務的劇本。

Super. And John, can I ask on services, the seasonality has been a little bit different in '23 versus '24. Can you just talk about the variation that we see quarter-to-quarter. What does that look like for the core services business if we were to strip out mods? Has that stayed relatively constant?

極好的。約翰，我可以問一下關於服務的問題嗎，23 年和 24 年的季節性有點不同。您能談談我們看到的季度間變化嗎？如果我們去掉模組，核心服務業務會是什麼樣子？這個數字是否保持相對穩定？

And how are you thinking about '25 seasonality relative to '24? Again, just for services [ex-mods] just so we can see how the baseline is performing.

您如何看待 25 年相對於 24 年的季節性？再次強調，僅針對服務[ex-mods]，這樣我們才能看到基線的執行情況。

Yes. When we look, Jerry, when you look at the core, 80% of the growth or 80% of the business, that's our parts business, right? And that's got a very normal and more measured cadence to it. What you are seeing when you look at the numbers on a total services basis is some of that rebalancing that we've done in particular, between the third and the fourth quarter. So that's driven by the other 20%, which is our mods revenue coming out of services.

是的。傑瑞，當我們看核心時，80％的成長或80％的業務，那就是我們的零件業務，對嗎？這是一種非常正常且更有節制的節奏。當您從整體服務角度查看數字時，您會看到我們在第三季和第四季之間進行的一些重新平衡。所以這是由另外 20% 推動的，也就是我們從服務中獲得的 mods 收入。

As we move into the next year, we expect that underlying growth to be steady across the fourth quarters. However, we're still going to see variation depending on how we manufacture the mods. Overall, our manufacturing, when we look at combined mods and locals, we would expect that to be very consistent.

隨著進入新的一年，我們預計第四季的基本成長將保持穩定。然而，我們仍然會看到變化，這取決於我們如何製造模組。總體而言，當我們觀察組合模型和本地模型時，我們期望我們的製造非常一致。

But we're still going to have times because we like to do customer runs as much as we can with the same product. And we're going to see things at times at what we saw in the third and fourth quarter is where we'll see a little bit more flip-flopping between the equipment P&L with new locals and the mods. But overall, the underlying piece is a consistent and well-performing business.

但我們仍會留出時間，因為我們希望盡可能使用同一種產品進行客戶運作。我們有時會看到第三季和第四季出現的情況，即新本地設備和改裝設備之間的損益表之間會出現更多的波動。但總體而言，基礎業務是穩定且表現良好的。

Bascome Majors, Susquehanna.

巴斯康姆梅傑斯，薩斯奎哈納。

Rafael, earlier, you talked about a high single-digit contribution to growth this year from the combination of new logos and mods. Can you roughly break us out what that looks like between pricing units and how each are growing this year?

拉斐爾，之前您談到了今年新標誌和新模式的組合對成長的貢獻高達個位數。您能否粗略地介紹一下各個定價單位之間的情況以及今年各個定價單位的成長情況？

And more midterm, I believe both of your largest Mod contracts in North America are through the end of this year. Can you talk about where you are in the cadence of extending those agreements and how you feel about a steady to accelerating pace of growth in 2026 and beyond?

還有更多的中期合同，我相信您在北美最大的兩個 Mod 合約都將在今年年底到期。您能談談延長這些協議的進度嗎？

Bascome, I'll start with, we've got active discussions with customers in North America for both new units and for mods. So that's continuing, and that's very much connected to what I described what you're seeing specifically going to '25, which is different than you saw it is you've got some customers especially on the new unit side, investing in a more heavy framework and on the mod side.

首先，巴斯康姆，我們已經與北美的客戶就新設備和改裝事宜進行了積極的討論。所以這會繼續，而且這與我所描述的您所看到的具體到 25 年的情況非常相關，這與您所看到的不同之處在於您有一些客戶，特別是在新單元方面，投資於更重的框架和 mod 方面。

So it's less about specific customers shifting from one to the other that is just an element of mix in North America. We continue to see strong interest there, and that's really tied to the return they get on that investment. A piece of that is some of the elements of really just cost to operate the product, the --, think about the electronics and all these elements.

因此，這並不是特定客戶從一個品牌轉向另一個品牌的問題，而只是北美市場的混合因素。我們繼續看到那裡的濃厚興趣，這與他們從投資中獲得的回報密切相關。其中一部分是實際上只是產品營運成本的一些要素，——考慮一下電子產品和所有這些要素。

So we see that demand continuing. Earlier on, I did mention, and we talked about innovation. That's going to take it into the next cloud, especially as you start looking to modernizing the evolution fleet. And I did mention here fuel savings up to 7 points. So that's very significant. And that's where we're taking the business next.

因此我們認為這種需求將會持續下去。之前我確實提到過，我們談論過創新。這將把它帶入下一個雲，特別是當您開始尋求對進化艦隊進行現代化改造時。我在這裡確實提到了燃料節省高達 7 個百分點。這非常重要。這就是我們下一步的業務方向。

Now on the elements of specific numbers. We have traditionally not commented the number of mods or a number of new units, but the combination of both still translate into high single-digit growth for this year.

現在討論具體數字的元素。我們傳統上不會評論改裝的數量或新單位的數量，但兩者的結合仍然意味著今年將實現高個位數的增長。

And to your point on the evolution fleet, where are you in the testing? How would the results been? And when do you expect to launch that fully as a commercial product?

關於進化艦隊的問題，你們目前進行到哪一步了？結果會怎樣？您預計什麼時候將其作為商業產品全面推出？

So we expect by the end of next year that to be fully commercialized. So seeing really the full impact of that going to '27. So product is currently being tested. We're expanding the number of units and really making sure that ultimately, you translate the same reliability and availability of the product sales, we continue to really modernize the fleet that's out there and continue to drive value for customers.

因此我們預計到明年年底將全面商業化。因此，真正看到這對 27 年造成的全部影響。因此產品目前正在測試中。我們正在擴大單位數量，並確保最終實現與產品銷售相同的可靠性和可用性，我們將繼續真正實現現有車隊的現代化，並繼續為客戶創造價值。

Ivan Yi, Wolfe Research.

伊凡·易（Ivan Yi），沃爾夫研究公司。

First, on the long-term guidance, you're calling for 70 basis points of average annual improvement. Is that a good annual run rate target? Or is it more front-end loaded or more back-end loaded through 2029?

首先，關於長期指導，您要求每年平均改善 70 個基點。這是一個好的年度運行率目標嗎？或者到 2029 年，它將更加重視前端負載，還是更重視後端負載？

I'll start there. I mean it's clearly more front-end loaded. You see it how we're starting the guidance for 2025, and it has to do with, again, this is a continuous improvement process. So the team's got a clear back that's been operationalized. So we translate into delivering on the guidance that has been provided, but that's work that continues. And we'll continue to expand on that back of projects as we look into it.

我將從那裡開始。我的意思是它顯然前端負載更重。您可以看到我們如何開始製定 2025 年的指導，而且這與持續改進的過程有關。因此，球隊已經擁有了清晰的後防線，並且能夠正常運作。因此，我們將履行已經提供的指導，但這項工作仍在繼續。我們將在研究過程中繼續擴大該計畫。

And then how much of your raw materials are imported? What impact would tariffs from Canada, Mexico, China and potentially other countries have on your cogs and ultimately your gross profit?

那你們的原料有多少是進口的呢？來自加拿大、墨西哥、中國以及其他國家的關稅會對你的利潤以及最終的毛利產生什麼影響？

So the tariff plan continues to be, I'll call it, quite fluid, right? It's changing on a day-to-day basis. That's not included in our guidance. With that being said, over the past five years, we've successfully managed inflation, we've had tariffs sells well. But while all that was happening with expanded margins.

因此，我認為關稅計劃仍然會相當不穩定，對嗎？它每天都在變化。這不包含在我們的指導中。話雖如此，在過去五年裡，我們成功地控制了通貨膨脹，關稅也銷售良好。但同時，利潤率也在不斷擴大。

So I think we've demonstrated and we continue to be committed on really -- on our ability to drive positive outcomes in very dynamic environments. So while there could be an impact, on any specific quarters. As we've done before, we would expect to navigate these challenges over time in collaboration with various stakeholders with positive outcomes through us.

因此，我認為我們已經證明並且我們將繼續致力於在非常動態的環境中推動積極成果的能力。因此，儘管可能會對任何特定方面產生影響。正如我們以前所做的那樣，我們希望隨著時間的推移與各利益相關者合作來應對這些挑戰，並透過我們取得積極的成果。

Steve Barger, KeyBanc.

史蒂夫·巴格，KeyBanc。

Rafael, with digital intelligence growth shifting towards international, how do you think about the market size for international digital? And can you talk about your penetration rate in North America versus international?

拉斐爾，隨著數位智慧成長轉向國際化，您如何看待國際數位市場的規模？您能談談您在北美和國際的滲透率嗎？

So a couple of points there. Number one, international. It's very significant. PTC is a very compelling offer. We're seeing customers really with a strong interest on that. We've got a number of discussions really going across all the geographies that I typically discussed here. And we continue to see really a momentum picking up there in terms of how you drive automation.

這裡有幾點。第一，國際化。這非常有意義。PTC 是一個非常有吸引力的提議。我們看到客戶確實對此表現出濃厚的興趣。我們進行了許多討論，涉及我通常在這裡討論的所有地區。我們繼續看到，在推動自動化方面，其勢頭正在不斷增強。

With all that being said and still, of course, more significant opportunity here, especially for adoption of the most, I'll call traditional products that we have high penetration in North America, including trip optimizer and zero to zero and other things.

儘管如此，這裡當然還有更重要的機會，特別是對於大多數傳統產品的採用，我會稱之為在北美具有很高滲透率的產品，包括行程優化器和零到零等。

One thing that we've really seen more recently in North America and really goes back to the last couple of weeks is I think we're seeing some positive progress and I think that's encouraging. I mean, we've seen really at least one waiver here going to the FRA, which is really a positive for us and it speaks to not just the safety plan for the railroads.

我們最近在北美看到的一件事，可以追溯到過去幾週，我認為我們看到了一些積極的進展，我認為這是令人鼓舞的。我的意思是，我們確實看到至少有一項豁免授予了聯邦鐵路局，這對我們來說確實是一個積極因素，它不僅關係到鐵路的安全計劃。

It speaks to ultimately us continue to expand on that platform that we have and in this case is the [pre] optimizer air brake control product, which is, again, a next step on that evolution of products that will allow customers not just to run it safer it will advance also the elements of automation and I'll call ultimately efficiency for our customers. So it's good to see that progressing after a couple of years, no?

它最終意味著我們將繼續擴展現有的平台，在這個例子中是[預]優化器空氣煞車控制產品，這又是產品發展的下一步，它將使客戶不僅可以更安全地運行，還將推進自動化元素，我最終稱之為為客戶提高效率。所以看到幾年後取得進展是件好事，不是嗎？

So do you expect the same progression that North America had, which is PTC's kind of the landing point and then you sell incremental technology applications. And if that's right, what is the long-term target for recurring revenue as you think about the legacy products and maybe include the inspection acquisition that you just did evident?

那麼您是否期望實現與北美相同的進展，即 PTC 的著陸點，然後您銷售增量技術應用程式。如果這是正確的，那麼當您考慮傳統產品並且可能包括您剛剛進行的檢查收購時，經常性收入的長期目標是什麼？

Yes. If you think about it, I mean we started this journey on digital lawn and I'm not going to mix with that with this point. We started really with recurring revenues below 20% business. I mean, over this past horizon has really grown to be in the 30% range. And I think the goal there is to ultimately get to, I'm going to call it, a goal of 50% of higher and that's going to be a function of more software services, which is very much connected.

是的。如果你仔細想想，我的意思是我們是在數位草坪上開始這段旅程的，我不會將其與這一點混為一談。我們剛開始時，經常性收入確實佔業務的 20% 以下。我的意思是，在過去的一段時間內，這一比例確實增長到了 30% 左右。我認為最終的目標是達到 50% 甚至更高的目標，這將是更多軟體服務的功能，這些軟體服務是緊密相連的。

I mean, if you think about how the next generation of PTC and how that's being commercialized, if you think about the number of products that we can build on the top of that, which speak to Movement Planner, it speaks to a lot of the automation, the railroads can do in terms of driving efficiency, in terms of driving really, I'll call, ultimately a lower cost into their operations.

我的意思是，如果您考慮下一代 PTC 如何商業化，如果您考慮我們可以在此基礎上構建的產品數量，這些產品與 Movement Planner 有關，它與鐵路在駕駛效率方面可以實現的很多自動化有關，就駕駛效率而言，我稱之為最終降低運營成本。

So we're exactly on that path. And that's the direction that business has got to go. I think as you look into some of the opportunities here for capital allocation, whenever we're looking at any element of M&A, as we discussed before, digital is certainly an area that we look at it and it's got to go with the fundamentals that continue to make our business which is high margin, recurring revenues and really significant growth here ahead. And Evident meets all those elements will grow business with our end markets. Our business group will unlock significant opportunity from that business on serving Evident end markets, and we've got a significant opportunity here to leverage a lot of the capabilities we have in-house.

所以我們正走在這條道路上。這正是企業必須發展的方向。我認為，當您研究這裡的一些資本配置機會時，每當我們研究併購的任何要素時，正如我們之前所討論的，數位化肯定是我們關注的一個領域，並且它必須與繼續推動我們業務發展的基本原則相結合，即高利潤、經常性收入和未來真正顯著的增長。Evident 滿足了所有這些要素，將會隨著我們的終端市場發展業務。我們的業務集團將從該業務中釋放出巨大的機遇，為 Evident 終端市場提供服務，我們也獲得了巨大機會來利用我們內部擁有的許多能力。

Ken Hoexter, Bank of America.

美國銀行的肯‧霍克斯特 (Ken Hoexter)。

Rafael, I guess the stocks bid down 8% this morning. I think there's a concern on the mid-single-digit revenue growth outlook versus what you've been generating, which has been maybe closer to upper single digit or even double digit. So do you take away this is a conservative outlook? Is it missing the opportunity on M&A? I think that's why you're getting a lot of backlog at 3% growth and questions on pricing. Maybe you want to just take an opportunity to kind of throw your thoughts on that.

拉斐爾，我猜今天早上股票價格下跌了 8%。我認為人們對中等個位數的收入成長前景感到擔憂，而你們的實際收入成長可能更接近高個位數甚至兩位數。那麼您是否認為這是保守的觀點？是否錯失併購機會？我認為這就是為什麼在 3% 的成長率下你會遇到很多積壓訂單和定價問題。也許您只是想藉此機會發表您的想法。

Okay. So two things. Number one, M&A has not been incorporated on desk, right? It's very clear. I mean we're looking at that really as a function of what I'll call organic. So I just want to start there.

好的。所以有兩件事。第一，併購還沒有被納入討論範圍，對嗎？非常清楚。我的意思是，我們實際上將其視為我稱之為有機的功能。所以我只是想從那裡開始。

The second piece, which I think is also not to be missed, we've continued to do our portfolio optimization. There is probably $100 million of impact that goes right into the top line you're seeing it there. So hopefully, that's not being missed as well in that context. When we provide guidance, it's ultimately aligned to the operating plans we have from each one of the businesses, and that's what guides us to what we're providing. As we said it, coverage is very much aligned with the coverage we've had last year.

第二部分，我認為也是不容錯過的，我們一直持續進行投資組合優化。可能會有 1 億美元的影響，直接進入您在那裡看到的頂線。因此希望，在這種情況下，這一點也不會被忽視。當我們提供指導時，它最終與我們每個業務的營運計劃保持一致，這就是指導我們提供的內容的指導。正如我們所說，報道內容與去年的報導非常一致。

If you think about how we've guided for the year, I think we continue to have opportunities here to drive, I think, increased share of wallet from our products, and that's what our teams are really fighting to do every day.

如果您想想我們今年的指導方針，我認為我們繼續有機會推動我們產品的錢包份額增加，而這正是我們的團隊每天都在努力做的事情。

With that, we're very much committed to deliver on the guidance that we provided. And as we look into the long-term guidance, we are starting that accelerated in an accelerated form, and we have no intention to slow down in that regard.

因此，我們非常致力於履行我們所提供的指導。當我們研究長期指導時，我們開始以加速的方式加速這一進程，我們無意在這方面放慢腳步。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Kyra Yates for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給 Kyra Yates 做結束語。

Thank you, Betsy, and thank you, everyone, for your participation today. We look forward to speaking with you again next quarter.

謝謝你，貝琪，也謝謝大家今天的參與。我們期待下個季度再次與您交談。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。