VSE Corp (VSEC) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the VSE Corporation second-quarter 2024 results conference call.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 VSE 公司 2024 年第二季業績電話會議。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員說明）。

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Perlman, Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasury.

現在我想將會議交給投資者關係和財務副總裁 Michael Perlman。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Welcome to VSE Corporation's second-quarter 2024 results conference call.

歡迎參加 VSE Corporation 2024 年第二季業績電話會議。

We will begin with remarks from John Cuomo, President and CEO.

我們將首先聽取總裁兼執行長約翰·科莫 (John Cuomo) 的演講。

Also on the call this morning is Tarang Sharma, Chief Accounting Officer and Interim Chief Financial Officer.

今天上午參加電話會議的還有財務長兼臨時財務長 Tarang Sharma。

The presentation we are sharing today is on our website, and we encourage you to follow along accordingly.

我們今天分享的簡報位於我們的網站上，我們鼓勵您相應地遵循。

Today's discussion contains forward-looking statements about future business and financial expectations.

今天的討論包含有關未來業務和財務預期的前瞻性陳述。

Actual results may differ significantly from those projected in today's forward-looking statements due to various risks and uncertainties, including those described in our periodic reports filed with the SEC.

由於各種風險和不確定性，包括我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的定期報告中所述的風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與今天的前瞻性聲明中預測的結果有顯著差異。

Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to update our forward-looking statements.

除法律要求外，我們不承擔更新前瞻性聲明的義務。

We are using non-GAAP financial measures in our presentation.

我們在演示中使用非公認會計準則財務指標。

Where available, the appropriate GAAP financial reconciliations are incorporated into our presentation and posted on our website.

如果有的話，適當的 GAAP 財務調節表將納入我們的簡報中並發佈在我們的網站上。

All percentages in today's discussion refer to year-over-year progress, except where noted.

除非另有說明，今天討論中的所有百分比均指同比進展。

At the conclusion of our prepared remarks, we will open the line for questions.

在我們準備好的發言結束後，我們將開放提問熱線。

With that, I would like to turn the call over to John.

說到這裡，我想把電話轉給約翰。

Good morning.

早安.

Thank you for joining VSE's second-quarter conference call today.

感謝您今天參加 VSE 第二季度電話會議。

This morning, I would like to begin by discussing the current market environment for our aviation segment.

今天上午，我想先討論一下我們航空領域目前的市場環境。

I will then provide an update on our 2024 strategic priorities and review both our second quarter financial performance and outlook for the remainder of the year.

然後，我將介紹我們 2024 年策略重點的最新情況，並回顧我們第二季的財務業績和今年剩餘時間的前景。

Let's begin with a market update on the aviation commercial market.

讓我們先了解航空商業市場的最新情況。

Global airline passenger traffic remains robust and has returned to, and in many cases exceeded, record pre-pandemic levels. 2024 revenue passenger miles are forecasted to be approximately 4% above 2019 levels and are expected to continue to increase annually over the next 10 years.

全球航空客運量仍然強勁，並已恢復到甚至在許多情況下超過了疫情前的創紀錄水平。預計 2024 年收入乘客里程將比 2019 年水準增加約 4%，並且預計在未來 10 年內將繼續每年增加。

Over the same period, the global in-service fleet is expected to expand by approximately 3% annually to accommodate increased passenger demand.

同期，全球在役機隊預計每年擴大約 3%，以滿足不斷增長的乘客需求。

While Boeing and Airbus are attempting to ramp-up production to meet increased demand, quality and supply chain constraints have impeded their efforts.

儘管波音和空中巴士正試圖提高產量以滿足不斷增長的需求，但品質和供應鏈的限制阻礙了他們的努力。

As an interim solution, airlines are delaying aircraft retirements, driving increased demand for aftermarket parts and maintenance-related services on aging aircraft.

作為臨時解決方案，航空公司正在推遲飛機退役，從而推動對老化飛機的售後零件和維護相關服務的需求增加。

Within the business and general aviation market, we've seen a structural shift in the use of private aircraft following the pandemic and as a result, more stability when compared to prior cycles.

在商務和通用航空市場中，我們看到私人飛機的使用在大流行後發生了結構性轉變，因此與之前的周期相比更加穩定。

Business jet activity was the first to recover following the pandemic and we have seen this activity stabilize near historically high levels and anticipate low single-digit growth rates in the near term.

公務機活動是疫情後最先復甦的，我們看到這項活動穩定在歷史高點附近，並預計近期將出現較低的個位數成長率。

Moving now to slide 3, where I will provide an update on our 2024 strategic priorities, beginning with the aviation segment.

現在轉到投影片 3，我將介紹我們 2024 年策略重點的最新情況，首先是航空領域。

First, we continue to scale our new European distribution Center of Excellence in Hamburg, Germany, launched earlier this year.

首先，我們繼續擴大今年稍早啟動的位於德國漢堡的新歐洲卓越配送中心的規模。

The facility supports an expansion of our Pratt & Whitney Canada aftermarket program, which is performing in line with our expectations and is expected to be at the full year run rate by the end of the year.

該設施支持普惠加拿大售後市場計劃的擴展，該計劃的表現符合我們的預期，預計到年底將達到全年運行水平。

The facility will support additional distribution products, including tires, tubes and batteries, from our Desser acquisition later in 2024.

該設施將支援我們於 2024 年稍後收購 Desser 的其他分銷產品，包括輪胎、內胎和電池。

Second, the launch of our new OEM-licensed fuel control manufacturing program is outpacing early expectations and contributing to segment profitability.

其次，我們新的 OEM 許可的燃油控制製造計劃的推出超出了早期預期，並有助於提高部門盈利能力。

Our Kansas facility expansion, which will support the manufacturing of this new product line is expected to be operational by year-end.

我們在堪薩斯州的工廠擴建將支持這條新產品線的製造，預計將於年底投入營運。

The investment in this facility expansion accounts for most of the growth CapEx spent in the second quarter.

該設施擴建的投資佔第二季資本支出成長的大部分。

Next, we are building a core competency in acquisition integration.

接下來，我們正在建構收購整合的核心能力。

The Desser acquisition integration, which includes integrating systems, processes, organizations, go-to-market strategy and branding remains on track and is expected to be completed over the next 12 months.

Desser 收購整合（包括整合系統、流程、組織、上市策略和品牌）仍在按計劃進行，預計將在未來 12 個月內完成。

Supporting this integration, we are developing a new e-commerce site that will support all VSE Aviation and legacy Desser customers.

為了支援這種整合，我們正在開發一個新的電子商務網站，該網站將為所有 VSE Aviation 和傳統 Desser 客戶提供支援。

This new VSE Aviation site will be launched in the third quarter of this year.

這個新的 VSE Aviation 網站將於今年第三季推出。

And finally, our recent acquisition of Turbine Controls, or TCI, has exceeded our initial expectations and assumptions.

最後，我們最近對 Turbine Controls（TCI）的收購超出了我們最初的預期和假設。

Our initial focus for this business is adding capacity and expanding our scope with existing engine OEM partners.

我們對該業務的最初重點是增加產能並擴大我們與現有引擎 OEM 合作夥伴的範圍。

Moving now to fleet.

現在轉向艦隊。

Earlier this year, we announced the initiation of a process to explore and evaluate strategic alternatives involving our fleet segment.

今年早些時候，我們宣布啟動一項流程，探索和評估涉及我們機隊部門的策略替代方案。

The review is progressing and in process, and we expect to provide additional updates after both the USPS ERP transition is complete and the USPS revenue recovery has stabilized, both of which are anticipated by year-end.

審查正在進行中，我們預計在 USPS ERP 過渡完成且 USPS 收入恢復穩定後提供更多更新，預計這兩項工作都將在年底完成。

In the interim, we have undergone several initiatives to better position this segment for future revenue growth, profitability and a potential divestiture.

在此期間，我們採取了多項舉措，以便更好地定位該細分市場，以實現未來的收入成長、獲利能力和潛在的剝離。

We remain committed to managing the fleet segment through the near-term temporary disruptions caused by the USPS transition to a new ERP or fleet Management System.

我們仍然致力於管理機隊部門，應對因 USPS 過渡到新的 ERP 或機隊管理系統而造成的近期暫時中斷。

We continue to focus on customer diversification and scaling our e-commerce fulfillment and commercial fleet businesses, which are up approximately 30% organically year-to-date in the aggregate.

我們繼續專注於客戶多元化，並擴大我們的電子商務履行和商業車隊業務，今年迄今為止，這些業務總計有機增長了約 30%。

At the Corporate level, we completed a successful follow-on equity offering of 2.4 million shares at $71 per share in May.

在公司層面，我們在 5 月成功完成了 240 萬股的後續股權發行，每股 71 美元。

The net proceeds from the offering were used to repay outstanding borrowings under our revolving loan facility, including borrowings to fund our acquisition of TCI.

此次發行的淨收益用於償還我們循環貸款安排下的未償還借款，包括為我們收購 TCI 提供資金的借款。

Additionally, and as previously disclosed, the company expected to recognize restructuring charges related to the relocation of our Corporate and Federal Defense headquarters and other corporate restructuring initiatives supporting the finalization of the Federal and Defense business segment divestiture.

此外，正如先前所揭露的，該公司預計將確認與公司和聯邦國防總部搬遷以及支持聯邦和國防業務部門剝離最終完成的其他公司重組舉措相關的重組費用。

In connection with these activities, we recorded a $17 million charge in the second quarter.

與這些活動相關，我們在第二季記錄了 1700 萬美元的費用。

We have also made the decision to relocate our corporate headquarters to one of our existing aviation segment's operating facilities later this year.

我們也決定在今年稍後將公司總部遷至現有航空部門的營運設施之一。

We will provide a detailed update next quarter.

我們將在下個季度提供詳細的更新。

Finally, our CFO search is progressing well, and we expect to announce a permanent CFO and onboarding plan soon, specifically before the end of the third quarter.

最後，我們的財務長搜尋進展順利，我們預計很快就會宣布永久財務長和入職計劃，特別是在第三季末之前。

Let's move on to slide 4, where I will provide an update on our Q2 performance.

讓我們繼續看投影片 4，我將在其中提供有關第二季業績的最新資訊。

In the second quarter, we delivered revenue growth of 30%.

第二季度，我們的營收成長了 30%。

This included a second quarter in a row of both record revenue and record profitability for our aviation segment.

這包括我們的航空部門連續第二季創紀錄的收入和創紀錄的獲利能力。

The record aviation revenue and record profitability were driven by balanced performance, contributions from solid program execution on existing distribution awards, the scaling of new awards, expansion of MRO capabilities, the new OEM-licensed manufacturing program and contributions from both the Desser Aerospace and Turbine Controls acquisition supported these results.

創紀錄的航空收入和創紀錄的盈利能力是由以下因素推動的：平衡的業績、對現有分銷獎項的可靠計劃執行的貢獻、新獎項的擴大、MRO 能力的擴展、新的OEM 許可製造計劃以及Desser 航空航太和渦輪機公司的貢獻控制採集支持了這些結果。

During the quarter, fleet segment revenue declined 9%, driven by a decline in revenue from the United States Postal Service as they implement a new fleet Management Information System, resulting in a temporary slowdown in maintenance-related activities and parts usage.

本季度，車隊部門收入下降了 9%，因為美國郵政服務公司實施新的車隊管理資訊系統導致收入下降，導致維護相關活動和零件使用暫時放緩。

To-date, 235 facilities have migrated to the new system versus 107 since our last update.

迄今為止，已有 235 家設施遷移到新系統，而自上次更新以來，這一數字為 107 家。

The remaining 72 sites are expected to be transitioned by the end of the third quarter.

其餘 72 個站點預計將在第三季末完成過渡。

The negative USPS performance was partially offset by increased sales volume from e-commerce customers and fulfillment partners, supported by continued disciplined volume expansion at our Memphis distribution center and expanded product offerings, supporting new and existing customers within our commercial fleet sales channel.

USPS 的負面業績被電子商務客戶和履行合作夥伴的銷售增加所部分抵消，這得益於我們孟菲斯配送中心持續嚴格的銷售擴張和擴大的產品供應，為我們的商業車隊銷售渠道中的新客戶和現有客戶提供支援。

With that, I will now turn the call over to Tarang to discuss the details of our financial performance.

現在，我將把電話轉給塔朗，討論我們財務表現的細節。

Thank you, John.

謝謝你，約翰。

Let's turn to slides 5 and 6 of the conference call materials, where I'll provide an overview of the second quarter financial performance.

讓我們來看看電話會議資料的幻燈片 5 和 6，我將在其中概述第二季的財務表現。

VSE generated $266 million of revenue in the quarter, an increase of 30%, led by a 55% increase in aviation revenue, partially offset by a 9% decline in fleet revenue.

VSE 本季營收 2.66 億美元，成長 30%，其中航空收入成長 55%，部分被機隊營收下降 9% 所抵銷。

Adjusted EBITDA of $31 million increased 18% or $5 million compared to the second quarter of 2023.

調整後 EBITDA 為 3,100 萬美元，與 2023 年第二季相比成長 18%，即 500 萬美元。

Aviation drove this growth up $12 million compared to the prior year's period.

與去年同期相比，航空業推動這一成長增加了 1,200 萬美元。

This was partially offset by a $6 million decline in fleet.

這被機隊損失 600 萬美元部分抵消。

Adjusted net income increased 5% to $11 million and adjusted diluted earnings per share declined 22% to $0.64 per share.

調整後淨利成長 5%，達到 1,100 萬美元，調整後攤薄每股收益下降 22%，達到每股 0.64 美元。

Now turning to slide 7, we'll review our aviation segment's record second quarter results.

現在轉向投影片 7，我們將回顧航空部門創紀錄的第二季業績。

Aviation segment revenue increased 55% compared to the second quarter of 2023 to a record $193 million.

航空部門營收較 2023 年第二季成長 55%，達到創紀錄的 1.93 億美元。

Both distribution and MRO businesses were solid contributors, up 32% and up 112%, respectively, compared to the prior year period.

分銷和 MRO 業務均做出了強勁貢獻，與去年同期相比分別成長了 32% 和 112%。

The 32% increase in distribution revenue was driven by strong end market activity and strong execution of existing OEM programs, the ramp of new programs, including our Pratt & Whitney Europe, Middle East and Africa agreement and contributions from the Desser acquisition.

分銷收入成長 32% 的推動因素包括終端市場活動強勁、現有 OEM 計劃的有力執行、新計劃的增加，包括我們的普惠歐洲、中東和非洲協議以及收購 Desser 的貢獻。

The 112% increase in MRO revenue was driven by strong end market activity and the addition of new repair capabilities, market share gains and improved throughput across our MRO facilities and contributions from Desser and TCI acquisitions.

MRO 營收成長 112% 的推動因素包括強勁的終端市場活動、新維修能力的增加、市場份額的增加和 MRO 設施吞吐量的提高，以及 Desser 和 TCI 收購的貢獻。

Excluding recent acquisitions, aviation segment revenue increased by approximately 14% organically compared to the prior year.

不包括最近的收購，航空部門收入較上年有機成長約 14%。

Aviation adjusted EBITDA increased by 61% in the quarter to a record $31 million, while adjusted EBITDA margins increased by 70 basis points to 16.1%.

本季航空業調整後 EBITDA 成長 61%，達到創紀錄的 3,100 萬美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率成長 70 個基點，達到 16.1%。

The increase in margin was driven by contributions from new and existing distribution programs, MRO market share gains and our newly launched OEM licensed manufacturing program, slightly offset by lower margins from recent acquisitions.

利潤率的成長得益於新的和現有的分銷計劃、MRO 市場份額的增長以及我們新推出的 OEM 許可製造計劃的貢獻，但近期收購帶來的利潤率下降略有抵消。

For our aviation segment, we are maintaining full year 2024 revenue growth guidance of 34% to 38% and adjusted EBITDA margin guidance of 15.5% to 16.5%.

對於我們的航空部門，我們維持 2024 年全年營收成長指引為 34% 至 38%，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率指引為 15.5% 至 16.5%。

Now turning to slide 8 to discuss second quarter results for the fleet segment.

現在轉向幻燈片 8，討論機隊部門第二季的業績。

During the second quarter, fleet segment revenue declined 9% to $73 million, driven by lower USPS revenue, partially offset by e-commerce fulfillment and commercial fleet sales growth.

第二季度，由於 USPS 收入下降，車隊部門收入下降 9% 至 7,300 萬美元，但部分被電子商務履行和商業車隊銷售成長所抵消。

Commercial revenue was $46.5 million in the second quarter, an increase of 22% compared to the prior year.

第二季商業收入為4,650萬美元，比去年同期成長22%。

Commercial revenue now represents 64% of fleet segment sales compared to 47% in the prior year period.

商業收入目前佔車隊部門銷售額的 64%，去年同期為 47%。

USPS revenue, which is included within our other government channel declined approximately 37% compared to the second quarter of last year.

與去年第二季相比，包含在我們其他政府管道的 USPS 收入下降了約 37%。

As previously guided, USPS sales are expected to be down 40% to 45% in the third quarter and down 30% to 35% for the full year.

按照先前的指引，美國郵政局第三季銷售額預計將下降 40% 至 45%，全年銷售額將下降 30% 至 35%。

Moving on to fleet profitability.

轉向機隊獲利能力。

Fleet segment adjusted EBITDA decreased 66% to $3 million, driven by the decline in USPS sales volume.

由於 USPS 銷量下降，機隊部門調整後 EBITDA 下降 66% 至 300 萬美元。

Fleet adjusted EBITDA margin was 4.5% compared to 11.9% in the prior year.

機隊調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 4.5%，而前一年為 11.9%。

For the full-year 2024, we maintained our fleet segment revenue growth range of 0% to 5% compared to the prior year and our adjusted EBITDA margin range of 6% to 8%.

2024 年全年，與前一年相比，我們的機隊部門營收成長範圍維持在 0% 至 5%，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率維持在 6% 至 8%。

We expect both revenue and adjusted EBITDA margins at the low end of the provided ranges.

我們預計收入和調整後 EBITDA 利潤率均處於所提供範圍的低端。

Turning to slide 9.

轉到投影片 9。

In the second quarter, we used $18 million of operating cash flow, primarily driven by strategic inventory investments supporting new aviation awards.

第二季度，我們使用了 1,800 萬美元的營運現金流，主要是由支持新航空獎的策略性庫存投資所推動的。

Capital expenditures for the second quarter were $4 million, supporting new facility and equipment for our OEM licensed manufacturing program.

第二季的資本支出為 400 萬美元，用於支援我們的 OEM 許可製造計劃的新設施和設備。

Total net debt outstanding at quarter end was $445 million.

季度末未償淨債務總額為 4.45 億美元。

Pro forma net leverage, which includes the trailing 12-month results from prior acquisitions was 3.2x. We are in a position to further improve net leverage in the second half of the year, driven by stronger free cash flow generation and the optimization of our inventory investments and working capital.

預計淨槓桿率為 3.2 倍，其中包括先前收購的過去 12 個月業績。在自由現金流產生更加強勁以及庫存投資和營運資本優化的推動下，我們有能力在下半年進一步提高淨槓桿。

With that, I'll turn it over back to John.

這樣，我會將其轉回給約翰。

Thank you, Tarang.

謝謝你，塔朗。

I would like to conclude our prepared remarks by recapping our 2024 priorities on slide 10.

我想透過在投影片 10 上回顧我們 2024 年的優先事項來結束我們準備好的發言。

As previously communicated, 2024 is a year of execution.

如同之前所傳達的，2024 年是執行年。

Let's begin with our aviation segment.

讓我們從航空部門開始。

First, our [Pratt] Europe program implementation is on schedule.

首先，我們的[Pratt]歐洲計劃實施如期進行。

Our new Hamburg, Germany distribution center is now being positioned to support additional product lines in the back half of 2024.

我們新的德國漢堡配送中心現已定位為在 2024 年下半年支援更多產品線。

Next, the Fuel Control program launch continues to outpace early expectations and the Kansas facility expansion supporting this program is expected to be operational by year-end.

接下來，燃料控制計畫的啟動繼續超出早期預期，支持該計畫的堪薩斯工廠擴建預計將於年底投入營運。

Third, we expect the integration of Desser to be completed over the next 12 months.

第三，我們預計 Desser 的整合將在未來 12 個月內完成。

Alongside the integration, a new e-commerce site will be launched in the third quarter, supporting both VSE Aviation and legacy Desser customers.

除了整合之外，第三季還將推出一個新的電子商務網站，為 VSE Aviation 和傳統 Desser 客戶提供支援。

And finally, for our TCI acquisition, we are focused on adding additional capacity and increasing our scope with existing engine OEM partners.

最後，對於 TCI 收購，我們專注於增加額外產能並擴大我們與現有引擎 OEM 合作夥伴的範圍。

Moving to our fleet segment.

轉向我們的機隊部分。

We remain focused on our organic growth and customer diversification strategy and plan to drive commercial growth as we continue to scale our new Memphis distribution and E-commerce Fulfillment Center.

我們仍然專注於我們的有機成長和客戶多元化策略，並計劃在繼續擴大新的孟菲斯分銷和電子商務履行中心的同時推動商業成長。

We continue to support legacy and USPS new vehicles, while managing the temporary disruption in activity brought on by their new system conversion.

我們繼續支援舊車和 USPS 新車，同時應對新系統轉換帶來的活動暫時中斷。

Within fleet, we remain committed to scaling our commercial fleet business and managing through the near-term and temporary challenges within the USPS.

在機隊方面，我們仍然致力於擴大我們的商業機隊業務並應對 USPS 內部的近期和臨時挑戰。

Finally, from a cash flow perspective, we expect to generate solid free cash flow in the second half of the year, improving our net leverage and lowering our debt balance.

最後，從現金流的角度來看，我們預計下半年將產生穩定的自由現金流，從而提高我們的淨槓桿率並降低我們的債務餘額。

I would like to conclude by thanking the VSE team for all they do daily to support our stakeholders.

最後，我要感謝 VSE 團隊每天為支持我們的利害關係人所做的一切。

We are really building something special here.

我們確實在這裡打造了一些特別的東西。

Operator, we are now ready for the question-and-answer portion of our call.

接線員，我們現在已準備好進行通話的問答部分。

(Operator Instructions) Ken Herbert, RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員指示）Ken Herbert，RBC 資本市場。

John, maybe just to start out.

約翰，也許只是開始。

Within the aviation segment, the guidance implies sort of consistent margins at these levels in the back half of the year.

在航空領域，該指導意味著今年下半年的利潤率將保持在這些水準上。

You've got obviously a lot of activity, a lot of things ideally wrapping up.

顯然你有很多活動，很多事情都完美地結束了。

Can you just walk through the puts and takes as you see the second half sort of aviation margin progression playing out?

當您看到下半年航空利潤率的進展時，您能簡單介紹一下看跌期權和看跌期權嗎？

And if there's any particular risks around, whether it'd be the integration of some of these acquisitions, obviously, the new facilities, the ramp anything else?

如果有任何特定的風險，是否是其中一些收購的整合，顯然，新設施、坡道還有其他什麼？

Yes.

是的。

I mean, I think we posted a really strong operating margin in the first quarter and then the guidance has been slightly lower.

我的意思是，我認為我們在第一季發布了非常強勁的營業利潤率，然後指導略有下降。

We've got a bit of a mix with the acquisitions.

我們的收購有些混合。

We have TCI, which is not a low-margin business, but slightly lower than the 17%-plus that we posted in the first quarter.

我們有 TCI，這不是一個低利潤業務，但略低於我們第一季公佈的 17% 以上。

We have really significant activities in the Desser acquisition happening starting actually next week that will -- you'll have a little bit of a slowdown for four to six weeks while we get the systems migrated in the US.

我們在收購 Desser 方面將進行非常重要的活動，實際上從下週開始，當我們將系統遷移到美國時，您將在四到六週內稍微放慢速度。

And we continue to ramp.

我們繼續加速。

It's all about mix.

這都是關於混合的。

So I think we feel comfortable with the guidance that we put out.

所以我認為我們對我們提出的指導感到滿意。

If TCI was not part of the equation, we would probably be at the higher end of that guidance.

如果 TCI 不是等式的一部分，我們可能會處於該指引的較高端。

With TCI and I think the midrange of the guidance is where we expect to be at this point.

對於 TCI，我認為指導的中間範圍是我們目前預期的位置。

Michael or Tarang, any other puts and takes you think of?

Michael 或 Tarang，您還想到過其他看跌期權嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I will just reiterate that.

我只是重申這一點。

The TCI margin is dilutive, so that will certainly have an impact on the variability towards the back half of the year.

TCI 利潤率具有稀釋性，因此肯定會對下半年的波動產生影響。

And right now, we're just holding the plan.

現在，我們只是按計劃進行。

I mean, we've owned TCI for less than a quarter, and so we'll update the guidance when we think it's appropriate.

我的意思是，我們持有 TCI 還不到四分之一，所以我們會在認為合適的時候更新指導。

Perfect.

完美的。

And coming out of the air show, a lot of commentary on maybe some softness at the lower end in terms of some of the airlines and their capacity growth or capacity reductions.

航展結束後，出現了許多關於某些航空公司及其運力成長或運力減少的低端市場疲軟的評論。

Are you seeing any change in your airline customers on either spare parts purchasing or sort of MRO spend as a result of maybe some slowing with low-cost carriers?

您是否發現航空公司客戶因低成本航空公司的放緩而導致備件採購或 MRO 支出發生任何變化？

We aren't yet.

我們還沒有。

I mean you know I tend to be on the more conservative side of the market outlook, but we have not seen any changes in demand.

我的意思是，你知道我對市場前景持較保守的態度，但我們沒有看到需求有任何改變。

And our activity at Farnborough really centered around meetings with large OEMs and working with them in our -- our model is very OEM-centric.

我們在範堡羅的活動實際上集中在與大型原始設備製造商的會議上，並在我們的模式中與他們合作——我們的模式非常以原始設備製造商為中心。

And there continues to be a lot of very robust opportunities in terms of work that could be offloaded to us, back shop work for MROs, different distribution opportunities.

在可以轉移給我們的工作、MRO 的後台工作以及不同的分銷機會方面，仍然有很多非常強勁的機會。

But as of today, we're not seeing any impact or any change.

但截至今天，我們還沒有看到任何影響或任何變化。

Okay.

好的。

Perfect.

完美的。

And just finally, free cash in the second half, could you provide any more specifics on sort of where -- how much we expect to generate or where we should think about sort of free cash for the full year?

最後，關於下半年的自由現金，您能否提供更多具體信息，說明我們預計會產生多少自由現金，或者我們應該在哪裡考慮全年的自由現金？

I mean, certainly, we expect to generate free -- strong cash flow in the second half of the year.

我的意思是，當然，我們預計將在今年下半年產生強勁的自由現金流。

I mean, our cash for the year has been impacted by the sale of FDS and the divestiture-related costs and also the fleet's revenue declines.

我的意思是，我們今年的現金受到 FDS 銷售和剝離相關成本以及機隊收入下降的影響。

Then we've got new program execution in the first half of the year.

然後我們在上半年就有了新的計畫執行。

I'd say we're on track to just generate free cash flow and certainly anticipate that in the back half.

我想說，我們有望產生自由現金流，並且肯定會在下半年實現這一點。

Michael Ciarmoli, Truist.

邁克爾·恰莫利，真理主義者。

Just maybe to pick right up on that cash.

也許只是為了立即領取這筆現金。

Is that cash positive second half or you guys think you could be cash positive for the full year?

下半年現金是否為正，還是你們認為全年現金可能為正？

I think cash positive in the second half.

我認為下半年現金是正面的。

Yes, good question.

是的，好問題。

The second half.

下半場。

Okay.

好的。

And Mike, more so in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter.

麥克，在第四節與第三節相比更是如此。

I would expect free cash flow generation in the third quarter and more predominant in the fourth quarter.

我預計第三季將產生自由現金流，第四季將更為主要。

Okay.

好的。

Perfect.

完美的。

And then, John, I think you said TCI is outperforming expectations.

然後，約翰，我想您說過 TCI 的表現超出了預期。

I think you originally said $55 million to $60 million revenue contribution.

我想你最初說的是 5500 萬至 6000 萬美元的收入貢獻。

Is that still the right bogey for the full year?

這仍然是全年的正確柏忌嗎？

Or is that truly coming in maybe above that high end?

或者這真的可能高於那個高端嗎？

TCI is coming in above the high end and it certainly exceeded expectations for the months that we own them.

TCI 的價格高於高端，並且肯定超出了我們擁有它們的幾個月的預期。

I mean, if you follow the 10-Q, you'll see that it's closer to the $20 million, $23 million mark for the time period.

我的意思是，如果您遵循 10-Q，您會發現該時期的收入更接近 2000 萬美元、2300 萬美元大關。

Again, on this for two months of

再次強調，這兩個月來

--

--

Yes.

是的。

It's hard for us to put a solid forecast after 90 days, but I think as of right now, we feel at that they are at the higher end.

我們很難在 90 天後做出可靠的預測，但我認為截至目前，我們覺得它們處於較高水平。

I just want to have a little caution because we're still learning.

我只是想謹慎一點，因為我們仍在學習。

We're actually in Connecticut this week, but it's a lot of learning right now.

這週我們實際上是在康乃狄克州，但現在有很多學習的東西。

Got it.

知道了。

Got it.

知道了。

And then, John, I think I always kind of appreciate the conservatism, the reaffirmed aviation guidance.

然後，約翰，我想我一直很欣賞保守主義和重申的航空指導。

I mean, it kind of, I guess at the high-end maybe a slight uptick, but the midpoint or even low-end kind of assumes revenues kind of stall here at this kind of $193 million run rate on a sequential basis.

我的意思是，我猜高端可能會略有上升，但中端甚至低端假設收入在連續 1.93 億美元的運行率上停滯不前。

What sort of contemplated that would make revenues go down sequentially in 3Q and 4Q knowing just kind of what we've seen with some of the lower end, low cost airlines.

什麼樣的考慮會導致第三季和第四季的收入連續下降，了解我們在一些低端低成本航空公司所看到的情況。

But anything to read into on the guide there?

但是指南上有什麼值得閱讀的嗎？

No.

不。

I would say it's really important to look at the year-over-year comps rather than the sequential comps.

我想說的是，查看逐年比較而不是連續比較非常重要。

There is an element of seasonality in the markets, number one.

第一，市場存在季節性因素。

Number two is we will have a more conservative third quarter on the Desser side because we're going to go through the system integration in the US.

第二，我們在 Desser 方面將有一個更保守的第三季度，因為我們將在美國進行系統整合。

So that starts literally in about 10 days.

所以這實際上是在大約 10 天後開始的。

And you've got six weeks of integration work where you will see an impact in revenue as we integrate, but it's obviously all for the positive as we -- and we'll realize synergies as we get to the back end of the year.

你有六週的整合工作，你會看到我們整合對收入的影響，但這顯然對我們來說都是正面的——到今年年底，我們將實現協同效應。

But I would say there's nothing to read into it from a quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year perspective.

但我想說，從環比和同比的角度來看，沒有什麼可以解讀的。

We feel confident in posting growth based on that seasonality.

我們對基於季節性的成長充滿信心。

Okay.

好的。

Last one for me.

最後一張給我。

Just Southwest, they've obviously have a lot going on there, a lot of changes.

就西南航空而言，他們顯然發生了很多事情，發生了很多變化。

Anything you could say about your current program with them?

對於目前與他們合作的項目，您有什麼想說的嗎？

Does this create more opportunities for you, less opportunities?

這是否會為您創造更多的機會，而不是更少的機會？

Or just any kind of directional color there?

或只是任何一種定向顏色？

Yes.

是的。

I mean we have a strong partnership with them.

我的意思是我們與他們有著牢固的合作關係。

We are managing all of the 737-700 teardowns for them, 200-plus aircraft over.

我們正在為他們管理所有 737-700 飛機的拆解工作，其中超過 200 架飛機。

I won't define the period because it all depends on when they're able to receive new aircraft.

我不會定義這個期限，因為這完全取決於他們何時能夠接收新飛機。

It's a solid program with strong contributions.

這是一個具有強大貢獻的可靠計劃。

I'd say the acceleration of revenue and earnings on that program is more dependent on Boeing's ability to deliver aircraft to them than Southwest itself.

我想說，該計劃的收入和盈利的加速更多地取決於波音向他們提供飛機的能力，而不是西南航空本身。

So right now, it's stable and strong, but we don't anticipate any kind of strong growth based on the current Boeing 737 MAX build rates.

因此，目前它穩定且強勁，但根據目前的波音 737 MAX 建造速度，我們預計不會出現任何強勁增長。

Louie DiPalma, William Blair.

路易·迪帕爾瑪，威廉·布萊爾。

John, Tarang and Michael, aviation organic growth remained solid at 14%, and that shows continued market share gains with your view that the BG&A industry growth has decelerated to the low single-digits.

John、Tarang 和 Michael，航空有機成長保持穩定在 14%，這表明市場份額持續增長，而您認為 BG&A 行業增長已減速至較低的個位數。

Are you able to categorize where these market share gains are coming from?

您能否對這些市場份額的成長來自何處進行分類？

And what is your view in terms of when the commercial industry growth will start to mirror the BG&A growth?

您認為商業產業的成長何時開始反映 BG&A 的成長？

Yes.

是的。

I mean, first, with regard to share gains, it's interesting.

我的意思是，首先，關於股票收益，這很有趣。

I'd say we're winning more work from OEM partners as we talk about how to solve problems for them to support them in the aftermarket, whether it's distribution, MRO or some type of combination between parts and services needs.

我想說，當我們談論如何為他們解決問題以支持他們在售後市場時，無論是分銷、MRO 還是零件和服務需求之間的某種組合，我們都從OEM 合作夥伴那裡贏得了更多的工作。

More of the work is coming from those conversations than it is actually from a battle with competition over new business and taking share that way.

更多的工作來自這些對話，而不是實際上來自與新業務的競爭並以這種方式獲取份額。

And we are seeing it quite balanced across both markets, across business in general aviation and commercial and across both capabilities, MRO, and distribution.

我們看到它在兩個市場、通用航空和商業業務以及能力、MRO 和分銷方面都相當平衡。

Your second question specifically was about

你的第二個問題具體是關於

--

--

Commercial.

商業的。

Commercial.

商業的。

Yes.

是的。

I'm slowing down, so I'm thinking about it.

我放慢了腳步，所以我在思考這個問題。

Again, I take a more conservative approach.

再次，我採取更保守的方法。

I think we're going to see another year of growth in the market in 2025.

我認為 2025 年我們將看到市場又一個成長的一年。

I tend to think it's going to be more in that mid single-digit range.

我傾向於認為它會更多地處於中間個位數範圍內。

And I think as you get into '26, '27, you're going to see it start to flatten out.

我認為當你進入 26 年、27 年時，你會看到它開始趨於平緩。

That's just my perspective of it, which is slightly lower than what you see in kind of larger, more macro market communications.

這只是我的觀點，略低於你在更大、更宏觀的市場溝通中看到的觀點。

And for the 14% organic growth, it's a very sizable spread relative to industry growth.

對於 14% 的有機成長來說，相對於產業成長而言，這是一個非常大的差距。

Do you have confidence that you can maintain that spread?

您有信心維持這種價差嗎？

I mean, I won't say every quarter is going to look exactly the same in terms of organic growth.

我的意思是，我不會說每季的有機成長都會完全相同。

It depends on how programs ramp as well.

這也取決於計劃的進展。

So we'll continue to give as much clarity and guidance as possible as we win new business.

因此，在贏得新業務時，我們將繼續提供盡可能多的清晰度和指導。

And I think you see the transparency that we deploy in terms of winning new business, if there's any upfront cost to execute on the business and then when that revenue and earnings will start to flow through the P&L.

我認為您會看到我們在贏得新業務方面所部署的透明度，如果執行該業務需要任何前期成本，然後該收入和收益何時開始流經損益表。

So it's hard to just give a generic answer because each program does execute and implement differently.

因此很難給出一個通用的答案，因為每個程式的執行和實作方式都不同。

That makes sense.

這是有道理的。

And one more.

還有一個。

At your Analyst Day, John and Tarang, you forecast for 100 basis points of aviation margin expansion in 2025 relative to 2024, and is that still a viable target as the utilization of the Hamburg facility increases and as you gain the efficiencies of the fuel control assets?

John 和 Tarang 在分析師日上預測 2025 年航空利潤率將比 2024 年增長 100 個基點，隨著漢堡設施利用率的提高以及燃油控制效率的提高，這仍然是一個可行的目標資產？

Yes.

是的。

I mean it's really three factors.

我的意思是這實際上是三個因素。

It's the Honeywell Fuel Control and the kind of higher inventory that we had initially, the burn down of that as we bring on inventory where we're the manufacturer at a lower cost and that margin pick up there.

這是霍尼韋爾燃油控制和我們最初擁有的那種較高的庫存，當我們以較低的成本引入我們作為製造商的庫存並且利潤率上升時，就會消耗掉這些庫存。

The second is, as we continue to grow the business, we're leveraging our operational costs and kind of the platform that we built.

第二個是，隨著我們業務的不斷發展，我們正在利用我們的營運成本和我們建立的平台。

So the SG&A as a percentage of sales decline will provide some margin opportunity.

因此，SG&A 佔銷售額下降的百分比將提供一些利潤機會。

And the third is, we've got some integration activities happening in the back end of the year and through 2025, and there are synergies involved with those integration activities, which provide a little bit of margin uplift.

第三，我們將在今年底和 2025 年進行一些整合活動，這些整合活動會產生綜效，進而帶來一點利潤提升。

Sounds good.

聽起來不錯。

And one more, of the USPS sites that have transitioned to the new IT system, have the volumes recovered back to where they were prior to the transition?

另外，在已過渡到新 IT 系統的 USPS 站點中，流量是否已恢復到過渡前的水平？

No.

不。

So the first few sites that went live, went live in the first quarter.

因此，前幾個上線的網站是在第一季上線的。

We have seen those bottom out, and we've seen the recovery start to happen, but they have not -- there are no sites that have gone live that are at pre go-live revenue run rates at this point.

我們已經看到這些觸底反彈，我們已經看到復甦開始發生，但它們還沒有——目前沒有任何已上線的網站達到上線前的收入運行率。

And that's why we have given kind of that V-shaped guidance in terms of postal where we anticipate the remainder of the sites going live this quarter and really the bottom of -- you'll see a decline in revenue and earnings this quarter, and then you'll see a slow uptick in the fourth quarter and going into 2025.

這就是為什麼我們在郵政方面給出了某種 V 形指導，我們預計本季度剩餘的網站將上線，並且實際上是底部 - 您將看到本季度的收入和收益下降，並且然後你會看到第四季和2025 年期間緩慢上升。

Jeff Van Sinderen, B. Riley.

傑夫·範·辛德倫，B.萊利。

So I realize it's early on TCI, but I wanted to see if we could circle back to that just for a minute.

所以我意識到 TCI 還處於早期階段，但我想看看我們是否可以回到這個主題。

Do you think there's margin expansion potential there as you grow it based on what you're seeing so far?

根據您目前所看到的情況，您認為隨著您的成長，那裡的利潤率有擴大的潛力嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I mean, each deal kind of has a different financial model.

我的意思是，每種交易都有不同的財務模型。

Some deals are -- we fully integrated and the synergies come from cost takeout.

有些交易是──我們完全整合，綜效來自成本削減。

That is not the situation with TCI.

TCI 的情況並非如此。

TCI is about how do we expand and grow the business because we see a tremendous amount of market potential.

TCI 關注的是我們如何擴展和發展業務，因為我們看到了巨大的市場潛力。

And then where we have, I'd say, on the product or service margin level where we have opportunities to expand margins there.

然後，我想說，在產品或服務利潤水準上，我們有機會擴大利潤。

Our approach is typically first 90 days, watch, learn, especially this is an A asset, make sure we feel comfortable before we put any plans in place.

我們的方法通常是在前 90 天觀察、學習，尤其是這是一項 A 資產，確保我們在製定任何計劃之前感到舒適。

And you'll see us start to focus much more on growth in capacity expansion plans in the back end of the year and into 2025.

您將看到我們開始更專注於今年年底和 2025 年產能擴張計劃的成長。

And as we bring on new programs, we'll be in a position to talk more about margin expansion.

當我們推出新計劃時，我們將能夠更多地談論利潤擴張。

Okay.

好的。

Fair enough.

很公平。

And then I guess, it sounds like you're focused on the near-term system integration, you're about to execute.

然後我想，聽起來您似乎專注於即將執行的近期系統整合。

What are kind of the next key things remaining to complete the integration of Desser over the next year?

明年完成 Desser 整合的關鍵工作是什麼？

Yes.

是的。

I mean, Desser is a complicated integration because it was a nonintegrated business.

我的意思是，Desser 是一個複雜的集成，因為它是一個非集成的業務。

So you have two MRO shops that are operating under separate systems and separate kind of legal entities.

因此，您有兩家 MRO 商店，它們在不同的系統和不同類型的法律實體下運作。

And then you have, I think, three distribution businesses that were all operating somewhat independently.

然後，我認為，三個分銷業務都在一定程度上獨立運作。

So we're bringing those together and there -- it's almost like five mini integrations.

因此，我們將這些整合在一起——這幾乎就像五個迷你整合。

Coupled with that, there's more commoditized products in their mix, which is a good thing.

除此之外，他們的產品組合中還有更多商品化的產品，這是一件好事。

It's a lot of touch points with customers.

與客戶有很多接觸點。

And we're enhancing our e-commerce site and taking a new e-commerce site live in the third and fourth quarter of this year.

我們正在增強我們的電子商務網站，並在今年第三和第四季啟用新的電子商務網站。

So what you'll see is the US distribution integration happened throughout the remainder of this year.

因此，您將看到美國分銷整合在今年剩餘時間內發生。

And then as we get into next year, it will be MRO systems and processes integration.

然後，當我們進入明年時，這將是 MRO 系統和流程整合。

We've already done the HR stuff, payroll benefits, organizational integration.

我們已經完成了人力資源、薪資福利、組織整合等工作。

So now it's all about systems and how we go to market.

所以現在一切都與系統以及我們如何進入市場有關。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And then if I could just squeeze in one more.

然後如果我能再擠進去一個就好了。

Just any more color you can give us on what you're seeing in the Honeywell business?

您能否向我們介紹一下您在霍尼韋爾業務中所看到的情況？

Yes.

是的。

I mean it's scaling exactly or better than anticipated.

我的意思是它的擴展與預期完全一致或更好。

And we still feel we've given pretty robust guidance around that, including margin expansion in 2025 and still feel very confident in our ability to deliver on the performance that we've already communicated.

我們仍然認為我們已經就此給出了相當強有力的指導，包括 2025 年的利潤率擴張，並且仍然對我們實現已經傳達的業績的能力充滿信心。

Josh Sullivan, Benchmark.

喬許·沙利文，基準。

As far as the post office changeover, if you look back historically when the USPS went through a similar -- or similar actions, what metrics is that tracking to your historical experience versus this cycle?

就郵局的轉變而言，如果您回顧歷史，當美國郵政局經歷過類似的行動時，與此週期相比，追蹤您的歷史經驗的指標是什麼？

It's a good question.

這是一個好問題。

And I want to be very cautious because we feel very comfortable in our guidance.

我想非常謹慎，因為我們對我們的指導感到非常舒適。

And I would say at this point, we don't see any additional opportunity above the guidance, but what it's tracking similar.

我想說，在這一點上，我們沒有看到超出指導的任何額外機會，但它正在追蹤類似的機會。

I think the difference in what we saw in the past is we did see pent up demand, and that pent up demand kind of released at a certain point.

我認為我們過去看到的不同之處在於我們確實看到了被壓抑的需求，並且被壓抑的需求在某個時刻得到了釋放。

We haven't seen that yet.

我們還沒有看到這一點。

So other than that, kind of the V-shaped kind of decline and then recovery we are seeing.

除此之外，我們看到的是 V 形下降然後復甦。

At this point, we're not seeing any kind of indication that pent-up demand will yield any revenue.

目前，我們沒有看到任何跡象表明被壓抑的需求會產生任何收入。

And above that in 2024, [could it be] in 2025 potentially, we'll deal with them.

除此之外，到 2024 年，[可能是] 2025 年，我們將處理它們。

But for right now, no.

但目前還沒有。

Got it.

知道了。

And then, now that you've had a deeper look at TCI, and I understand it's not too deep, just a couple of weeks, but you mentioned the capacity expansion has been a focus.

然後，現在您已經對TCI有了更深入的了解，我知道這不是太深入，只有幾週的時間，但您提到產能擴張一直是焦點。

How should we think of those investments versus any certification time lines?

我們應該如何看待這些投資與任何認證時間表？

And then what's been the inbound from engine OEMs since you took ownership?

那麼自從您接手以來，引擎原始設備製造商的入站量是多少？

Yes.

是的。

I mean I'll start with the second question first.

我的意思是我先從第二個問題開始。

I mean, it's such an outstanding business with such strong OEM-centric relationships in terms of back shop work as they're doing their own full maintenance, repair and overhaul on a commercial engine or a military engine.

我的意思是，這是一家非常出色的企業，在後勤工作方面擁有如此強大的以原始設備製造商為中心的關係，因為他們正在對商用發動機或軍用發動機進行全面的維護、修理和大修。

We've seen a tremendous amount of interest from our OEM partners in how we scale and grow capacity to support additional back shop work.

我們看到 OEM 合作夥伴對我們如何擴展和提高產能以支援額外的後台工作表現出極大的興趣。

We -- as a public company, I mean you provide a lot of stability to large OEMs that are looking not just one year out, but three and five years and sometimes even longer out.

我們——作為一家上市公司，我的意思是，你為大型原始設備製造商提供了很大的穩定性，這些原始設備製造商的目標不僅僅是一年，而是三年、五年，有時甚至更長。

So the conversations and kind of our activity at the Farnborough Airshow were very much centered around these OEM relationships.

因此，我們在範堡羅航展上的對話和活動主要圍繞著這些 OEM 關係。

With regard to capacity, I'd say we're just at the -- there are some quick capacity expansion we can do within our capabilities we have today.

關於容量，我想說我們只是在我們今天擁有的能力範圍內可以進行一些快速的容量擴展。

I'd say as far as the next step of growth with these OEMs, we have to determine what that looks like.

我想說的是，就這些原始設備製造商的下一步發展而言，我們必須確定具體情況。

And then is it a new capability or an adjacent capability or not.

然後它是新功能還是相鄰功能。

I'd say we're not there yet to be able to say how quick I can turn those ideas into revenue and earnings, give me another quarter or two.

我想說，我們還不能說我能多快地將這些想法轉化為收入和收益，再給我一兩個季度的時間。

Got it.

知道了。

And then just one last one on Desser.

然後是 Desser 上的最後一篇文章。

You talked about a core competency in acquisition integration.

您談到了收購整合的核心能力。

Can you just expand on that?

能擴展一下嗎？

And then the e-commerce website, is that a new approach to this market in a way your commercial fleet e-commerce approach was?

然後是電子商務網站，這是進入這個市場的新方法嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I mean, for us, it is.

我的意思是，對我們來說，確實如此。

I've been with the business for five years now, and our approach initially was almost anti e-commerce, which I know sounds counterintuitive to what's happening in most markets, but we wanted to build a lot of touch points inside the customer base.

我已經在這個行業工作五年了，我們最初的方法幾乎是反電子商務的，我知道這聽起來與大多數市場正在發生的事情違反直覺，但我們希望在客戶群內部建立很多接觸點。

We wanted to accelerate and differentiate in terms of our service capabilities and differentiate in terms of how technical our sales teams are, how much we know and understand the product.

我們希望在我們的服務能力方面加速並實現差異化，並在我們的銷售團隊的技術水平、我們對產品的了解和了解程度方面實現差異化。

We're now at a place where those -- kind of, we built that level of stabilization, where we believe the next way to grow and support these customers is with a semi-customized e-commerce site that's designed around the products and services that we support.

我們現在所處的位置是，我們建立了一定程度的穩定，我們相信發展和支持這些客戶的下一個方法是使用圍繞產品和服務設計的半定制電子商務網站我們支持。

So excited to get that site launched.

很高興能推出網站。

I'll share with you the website once it's launched, you can kind of get a feel for it and what's the same with other sites and kind of where we're different.

網站上線後我會與您分享，您可以感受到它與其他網站的相同之處以及我們的不同之處。

But as we add more commoditized products, remember, about 85%-plus of our product is exclusive.

但當我們添加更多商品化產品時，請記住，我們大約 85% 以上的產品都是獨家的。

But as we have more commoditized products, it also give us another opportunity to expand that sales channel.

但隨著我們擁有更多的商品化產品，這也給了我們另一個擴大銷售管道的機會。

Bert Subin, Stifel.

伯特·蘇賓，史蒂菲爾。

I guess maybe jumping off of Louie's question a little earlier on the 10% to 13% targets from your Investor Day.

我想也許可以在投資者日早些時候就 10% 到 13% 的目標跳出路易的問題。

The 14% that you're at now, do you see that incrementally getting better?

您現在所處的 14%，您認為情況會逐漸改善嗎？

Or do you think it's just sustained from here?

或者你認為從這裡開始就可以持續下去了嗎？

I think near term, it's sustained as we get into 2025, and we give kind of guidance and outlook.

我認為短期內，隨著我們進入 2025 年，這種情況會持續下去，我們會提供指導和展望。

And I've got a feeling of how the new programs that we have won are going to be implemented and executed.

我對我們贏得的新計劃將如何實施和執行有了一種感覺。

We can give you a little bit more clarity on that.

我們可以讓您更清楚地了解這一點。

Every program is kind of different.

每個程序都有點不同。

It's like a distribution program, it depends is their inventory in the market and kind of how does that program roll out.

這就像一個分銷計劃，這取決於他們在市場上的庫存以及該計劃如何推出。

We won some new OEM-authorized MRO work.

我們贏得了一些新的 OEM 授權的 MRO 工作。

How long do those transitions take because you've got to get fully authorized by the OEMs and sometimes get testing equipment on board.

這些過渡需要多長時間，因為您必須獲得原始設備製造商的完全授權，有時您必須獲得測試設備。

So as we kind of are able to layer in new program by new program, I'll give a little bit more clarity to see if we can accelerate that.

因此，當我們能夠透過新程序分層添加新程序時，我將提供更清晰的信息，看看我們是否可以加速這一過程。

But at this point, I'd say the guidance is around what we've been able to do thus far.

但在這一點上，我想說的是，指導是圍繞著我們迄今為止所能做的事情進行的。

And remember, we're starting to lap pretty significant comps as well.

請記住，我們也開始進行相當重要的比賽。

Correct.

正確的。

Yes.

是的。

And I guess you mentioned the distro deals.

我猜你提到了發行版交易。

You've won, I think just over $1 billion or at least publicly announced just over $1 billion over since '23.

我認為你贏了，剛剛超過 10 億美元，或至少自 23 年以來公開宣布的剛剛超過 10 億美元。

How have those been ramping?

這些進展如何？

How should those be ramping maybe over the next 12 to 18 months?

在接下來的 12 到 18 個月內，這些數字應該如何增加？

Well, I was just going to add on.

嗯，我只是想補充一下。

Like, how does that -- I realize that that's not all new work.

就像，那是怎樣的──我意識到這不全然是新工作。

Some of that is expansion, some of that is renewed work.

其中一些是擴展，一些是更新工作。

But between your aftermarket OEM split on those as well, if we do foresee a weaker aftermarket, how does that affect your ramp or your margins for that matter, considering operating leverage or whatever other levers come in there?

但是，在您的售後市場 OEM 之間也存在分歧，如果我們確實預見到售後市場會疲軟，考慮到營運槓桿或其他任何槓桿，這將如何影響您的產能或利潤？

Yes.

是的。

I mean from a ramping perspective, some of the programs are fully ramped.

我的意思是，從升級的角度來看，一些計劃已經完全升級。

Some of the programs are kind of half ramp.

有些程序是半坡道。

I see as we get to the back end of this year, most of what we have announced, but even by -- let's say, first quarter of '25 should be relatively fully ramped.

我認為，當我們進入今年年底時，我們已經宣布了大部分內容，但即使到了 - 比方說，25 年第一季度也應該相對全面推進。

I think that from a margin perspective, the Honeywell Fuel Control program, which is not solely a distribution program will ramp throughout 2025, but other than that, most of it should be fully ramped by the first quarter.

我認為，從利潤角度來看，霍尼韋爾燃油控制計劃（不僅僅是一個分銷計劃）將在 2025 年全面啟動，但除此之外，大部分計劃應在第一季全面啟動。

With regard to mix, we're essentially 99% aftermarket, supporting commercial and business and general aviation.

在混合方面，我們基本上是 99% 的售後市場，支援商業和通用航空。

So we continue to watch demand in those markets.

因此，我們繼續關注這些市場的需求。

And again, most of our product is exclusive, and it's more on the expensive side of the -- our products that you're not seeing.

再說一次，我們的大部分產品都是獨家的，而且更昂貴的是——我們的產品是您看不到的。

There's not a ton of inventory in the market on most of the product that we're selling.

我們銷售的大多數產品市場上沒有大量庫存。

Our commoditized products, it's a different story.

我們的商品化產品則是另一回事。

But for our exclusive products, it's a pretty tight market in terms of how much inventory is at airlines or at kind of MROs or FBOs.

但對於我們的獨家產品來說，就航空公司、MRO 或 FBO 的庫存量而言，這是一個相當緊張的市場。

So we feel like we have a pretty good control over kind of working capital and inventory spend.

因此，我們覺得我們對營運資金和庫存支出有很好的控制。

Yes.

是的。

And the only thing I'd add is our guidance built in the mix and ramp dynamics that John just mentioned.

我唯一要補充的是我們在約翰剛才提到的混合和斜坡動態中建立的指導。

So that's why we're holding up.

這就是我們堅持下去的原因。

Okay.

好的。

Helpful.

有幫助。

And then maybe just on inventory as well.

然後也許也只是在庫存上。

You're sitting on, let's say, like $532 million in inventory.

比方說，你坐擁 5.32 億美元的庫存。

How much of that is attributed to the lower-margin Honeywell fuel systems?

其中有多少歸因於利潤較低的霍尼韋爾燃油系統？

And what you've talked about the burn rate, you're talking about the ramp into '25.

你所說的燒錢率，就是進入 25 年的速度。

Like what's your burn rate on that?

例如你的燒錢率是多少？

And how are you looking at replenishing that into '25?

您打算如何將其補充到 25 年？

I guess, as a second part to that, your DSOs are sitting also at historically high levels over the last two quarters.

我想，作為第二部分，你們的 DSO 在過去兩個季度也處於歷史高點。

Is that the main reason?

這是主要原因嗎？

Or is there anything else driving that?

或者還有其他什麼因素在推動這一點嗎？

So just to cover your Honeywell inventory question.

這只是為了解決您的霍尼韋爾庫存問題。

Certainly, we are on track converting at the rate that we previously noted.

當然，我們正在以我們之前提到的速度進行轉換。

I mean, we had about a year's worth of inventory.

我的意思是，我們有大約一年的庫存。

I think that's what we built out.

我認為這就是我們所建立的。

And that ramp is continuing.

而且這種成長仍在持續。

And as the burnout happens, we'll then move on to building up inventory under the new agreement.

當倦怠發生時，我們將根據新協議繼續建立庫存。

As far as the DSOs and the impact of inventory on the second piece, that again, is a mix between us ramping up new programs as we're launching new programs in Europe and also the impact of the fleet revenue decline as well.

就 DSO 和庫存對第二部分的影響而言，這又是我們在歐洲推出新計劃時加大新計劃以及機隊收入下降的影響的綜合因素。

So that's certainly creating a bit of a challenge right now.

所以現在這肯定會帶來一些挑戰。

But again, as John mentioned, we've got the pathway and the recovery that we anticipate for USPS coming in the back half of the year.

但正如約翰所提到的，我們已經找到了美國郵政局預計在今年下半年出現的路徑和復甦。

Yes.

是的。

And with regard to Honeywell Fuel Control, I mean, we don't specifically model out or share the -- how much inventory we have for each program.

關於霍尼韋爾燃油控制，我的意思是，我們不會專門建模或共享每個項目的庫存量。

But we plan to be in a position through no later than by the end of 2025 for kind of the higher cost inventory to have been kind of utilized, and the lower cost inventory to be replenished.

但我們計劃最遲在 2025 年底前充分利用成本較高的庫存，並補充成本較低的庫存。

So it's in our modeling in totality, it was like an 18-month -- I mean, a 24-month kind of kind of burn down and kind of buildup of new inventory.

因此，在我們的整體模型中，這就像 18 個月——我的意思是，24 個月的一種消耗和新庫存的累積。

If we have a chance to accelerate that, that it won't take the full year.

如果我們有機會加速這一進程，那麼就不需要花一整年的時間。

It just depends on the demand profile of 2025.

這只取決於 2025 年的需求情況。

Our ability to get the parts.

我們獲得零件的能力。

Maybe just one last one, and I'll jump back in queue here.

也許只是最後一件事，我會在這裡插隊。

But jumping back to the -- sorry to jump around here.

但跳回——抱歉在這裡跳來跳去。

But jumping back to the distribution deal commentary.

但回到分銷協議的評論。

If you win a deal like the Pratt & Whitney deal, where it's essentially a geographic expansion, and you have your Germany facility as well going on.

如果你贏得了像普惠公司這樣的交易，這本質上是地理擴張，而且你的德國工廠也正在進行中。

Does that or should that then drive margins just through sort of the operating leverage that you were mentioning earlier?

這是否或應該透過您之前提到的營運槓桿來提高利潤率？

Yes.

是的。

So it's a great question.

所以這是一個很好的問題。

So I've been here for, like I said, about five years or so.

正如我所說，我在這裡待了大約五年左右。

When you look at the business like kind of COVID time period, which is kind of when Ben, who runs the business and I kind of arrived, you're looking at $120 million aviation business, the platform and the infrastructure does not support a $2 billion business.

當你看看新冠時期的業務時，也就是經營業務的本和我到達的時候，你會看到價值 1.2 億美元的航空業務，平台和基礎設施不支援 2 美元的業務。

So we have built out that platform and infrastructure.

因此，我們已經建立了該平台和基礎設施。

So does it mean that I don't have to add any cost or any CapEx as we grow?

那麼這是否意味著隨著我們的發展，我不必增加任何成本或任何資本支出？

No.

不。

But for the most part, there's a tremendous opportunity to scale and leverage facilities, teams, processes, systems, so that on a total basis, you'll see the contribution margin of those programs higher than they were historically and an opportunity to lower that SG&A as a percentage of sales and expand margins in totality.

但在大多數情況下，存在擴展和利用設施、團隊、流程、系統的巨大機會，因此從總體上看，您將看到這些計劃的貢獻邊際高於歷史水平，並有機會降低貢獻邊際SG&A 佔銷售額和擴大利潤總額的百分比。

I'd say that's a generalized statement.

我想說這是一個籠統的說法。

If there's something different because it's a very unique program, we'll kind of model it out and share that at that point.

如果有什麼不同，因為它是一個非常獨特的程序，我們會對其進行建模並在那時分享。

But you think you're looking at it the right way.

但你認為你正在以正確的方式看待它。

This concludes our question-and-answer session.

我們的問答環節到此結束。

I would like to turn the conference back over to John Cuomo for any closing remarks.

我想將會議轉回約翰·科莫發表閉幕詞。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you for joining our second quarter conference call.

感謝您參加我們的第二季電話會議。

I appreciate the continued confidence in VSE, and we look forward to speaking with you in late-October after our third quarter.

我感謝您對 VSE 的持續信心，我們期待在第三季結束後的 10 月下旬與您交談。

Thank you, and have a great day.

謝謝您，祝您有美好的一天。

The conference has now concluded.

會議現已結束。

Thank you for attending today's presentation.

感謝您參加今天的演講。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。