Victoria's Secret & Co (VSCO) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Cedric and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the Victoria's Secret & Co.'s Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

I would now like to turn today's call over to Mr. Jason Ware, Vice President of Investor Relations at Victoria's Secret & Co. Jason, you may begin.

Thanks, Cedric. Good morning, and welcome to Victoria's Secret & Co.'s Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call for the period ending October 30, 2021. As a matter of formality, I need to remind you that any forward-looking statements we may make today are subject to our safe harbor statement found in our SEC filings and in our press releases.

Joining me on the call today are CEO, Martin Waters; CFO, Tim Johnson; and EVP Finance, Brad Kramer. We are available today for up to 45 minutes to answer any questions. All of the results we discuss on the call today are adjusted results and exclude the special items described in our press release. Thanks, and now I'll turn the call over to Martin.

Thanks, Jason, and good morning, everybody. We're very pleased with our third quarter performance, which, sure, has achieved growth in all core categories. Our work to deepen our connection with the customer while improving our operational fundamentals is gaining traction and the customer is responding positively to our brand transformation.

We continue to improve our merchandise assortment and expand our already strong file. I'm so proud of the commitment and resilience demonstrated by our teams who delivered these results in, obviously, challenging circumstances and in doing so, are demonstrating the power of a happy and healthy culture.

Turning to our third quarter performance. We delivered sales, margin and operating income growth on top of solid results last year and that in spite of significant supply chain headwinds this year. We reported third quarter earnings of $0.81 per share, ahead of our previous guidance of [$0.60 to $0.70]. The per share result was similar to last year's adjusted earnings per share of $0.82 as the impact of operating income dollar growth was offset by the interest cost associated with the debt from our public company spinoff from L Brands.

Sales growth of 7% combined with significant growth in merchandise margin rate and disciplined expense management drove these results. Compared to 2019, sales actually decreased 9%, and that's reflecting the net closure of about 260 company-operated stores since the third quarter of 2019. However, comparable store -- comparable sales increased by 4% compared to 2019.

Operating income in the third quarter was $108 million, which is an increase of nearly $11 million or 11% compared to last year and an increase of $204 million compared to 2019. As shared in our written commentary, we believe the supply chain pressures will significantly impact our results in the fourth quarter. Operating income for the fourth quarter is expected to be in the range of $295 million to $335 million, which is down to last year's result of $388 million, driven by those same supply chain headwinds but we're estimating $100 million of cost from those and lapping onetime rent abatements last year, which were about $65 million.

Thank you. That concludes our prepared remarks. And at this time, we'd be more than happy to take any questions that you might have.

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from Lorraine Hutchinson with Bank of America.

You had some new launches this quarter, and I just wanted to see if you could give a little bit more detail around the reaction to new launches, what you're hearing from customers? And then if you could give us a forward look into how robust the pipeline for newness is over the coming quarters.

Yes. Thanks, Lorraine. Thanks for the question. So as you heard me say, Lorraine, we had growth in all major categories, which is terrific and actually margin growth ahead of sales in those categories. And the good news is that it was driven by newness. So particular strength in the Infinity Flex Bra, which came in as our #5 bra frame, which given a relatively cautious buy, was an incredible result, and we'll be building on that in 2022, so that was really good.

We were thrilled with the response to the maternity bra, which had amongst the highest likes and ratings of any of our social media post through the year, and actually was our #4 bra frame on the days that it was featured. So from a standing start of never having been in that business, we saw a huge jump. And then there were other sort of pockets of newness that were less significant to the dial moving, but we're very strategically significant, like the inclusion of a mastectomy bra, which we bought 12,000 units and sold out in 5 days.

So all across the franchise in Victoria, we saw good growth and particular strength in the bra category. Within PINK, the varsity tee was very strong as was our intimates business. And it's worth noting that our logo shop had its record year, which obviously underlines the strength of the brand. So really pleased about that. Within the Beauty business, there's continued strength in Bombshell, obviously, the core of our business. But maybe a couple of other callouts. Natural Beauty in the daily body care line got to 5.5% of sales from a standing start, which was incredible, really beautiful product. And in the Tease franchise, we added 2 new flavors in Crème Cloud and Candy Noir that were both really big hit. So right across the board, newness is driving the business. And you'll remember, Lorraine, from the old days when this business is at its best, we have a lot of newness and it's genuine innovation.

And so you asked about the pipeline for new product. I'm less focused on what's new for Q4 and more focused on what's new in the next 18 months. We need a much longer time horizon to newness than we've had in the last couple of years. And so looking at our bra pipeline, we need at least 2 new bra frames per year, and I can see those, and we need to engage and leverage the power of our collective to generate more newness. So you may have seen that Hailey Bieber collab on a silk line as an example of leveraging that group.

So lots of newness. Right now, the focus is on getting the merchandise here rather than inventing new. We have 10 weeks left in the all-important fourth quarter, and we're ready for action. Thanks for the question, Lorraine.

Our next question comes from Ike Boruchow with Wells Fargo.

I wanted to focus on the direct business. So this was a second quarter in a row of year-over-year declines. Can you kind of walk us through what's going on in that channel? How much of this is just kind of rightsizing promotional activity and better full price selling? And then just when I look at the model, Q4 has a pretty robust compare as does Q1. Should we kind of assume that you're going to continue to have year-over-year declines in that channel until we start to lap that maybe in the second quarter of next year. Just trying to understand how that channel -- or the puts and takes of the channel right now?

Yes. Thanks, Ike. So you talked about decline. But remember, we're comparing against the very odd year where stores were not open. So I don't quite see it that way. The way I look at it is that our digital business in Q3 was up 23% on a 2 LY basis, which is broadly similar, slightly behind, but broadly similar with the increase that we saw in Q2. So actually, the digital business was tracking pretty well. The real story is that stores came back and a significant part of our competitive advantage is having 850 points of physical distribution. Our most valuable customer is the customer that shops across both channels at the same time. So my focus is less about the absolute participation of the digital business and more about the overall health of the system.

That said, within digital, we had literally hundreds of upgrades to our user experience and they're on the front end, but also in the back end in terms of omnichannel capability, ship from store, buy online, pick up in store, order from store, deliver from the web. We also stood up our new automated DC, which is truly robotic and state-of-the-art. We've been stress testing the digital system, and we just pumped through 2,200 orders per minute successfully to dimension that. Our peak hours would be about 30,000 orders per hour being processed. And in our stress test, we did 99,000 orders in an hour.

So while there is still more work to do on our digital capability and there always will be, I'm really pleased with the progress that the team has made. As it relates to the fourth quarter, we don't really know. I mean what I would like to see, as I said, is stores continuing to roll back. We're at our healthiest when both channels are working really hard. And as it relates to the 2022 guidance, we're just not in a position to say 10 weeks left in the quarter, full focus on that. We will give you guidance for 2022 when we come back in January, February period. But for now, it's all about the fourth quarter. Thanks, Ike.

Our next question comes from Matthew Boss with JPMorgan.

Maybe you're on mute, Matt.

Matt, you're maybe on mute.

He's gone for coffee. Cedric, we can go to the next question. We'll try to pick up, Matt.

Okay. And our next question comes from Roxanne Meyer with MKM Partners.

Great. Congratulations on a strong quarter. My question is, first, on the sales metrics, would you be willing to provide color on your AUR versus your basket size. And then second, I'm just curious, I know you mentioned Hailey Bieber as part of the collective. Can you talk about the impact that the collective is having so far and the consumer response?

Let's do that in reverse order. So as it relates to the collective -- Rox, nice to hear from you. We are thrilled with the response to the collective. The repositioning of the brand continues to gain great momentum, and that shows up in our sales. It shows up in the health of the file, shows up in our social media likes and followership, 71 million followers on Instagram and some really strong responses. We just did a Facebook Live event a couple of days ago, it was a terrific success, 20 million followers on Facebook, 10 million on Instagram. So there's real power in social media. And having the likes of Linda McCartney and Bella Hadid and Hailey Bieber and Valentino and Megan Rapinoe, Naomi Osaka, all of these great names who advocate for women in some way, shape or form, is obviously positive for us. And you don't need to take my word for that. We -- I can tell you, last night looking at our brand tracker, the response to all things collective is 95% positive. That is an incredibly strong rating.

When as you know, athletes and famous people are not universally appreciated by everybody. So we feel really good about the diversity that we have across that mix. And we feel really good about working with those partners in different ways. It isn't necessarily about merchandise in the case of Hailey. It could be about imagery in the case of Paloma. It could be about shapewear line in the case of Priyanka. It could be about advocacy for breast cancer in the case of Stella. So we have a wide variety of ways in which we can partner with these incredible women. And I can tell you that the collective will grow. There will be more people included, and we will grow this family in a really strong and inclusive way.

So Brad, do you want to pick up the financial question that Roxanne had?

Roxanne, this is Brad. Just in terms of a couple of the retail metrics in the third quarter. We have made significant progress over the last 5 quarters in terms of driving AUR expansion. And we saw those themes continue into the third quarter. We believe, in part, that's driven by the strength of the assortment and the health of the brand. The 2 callouts would be that, that AUR expansion and margin rate expansion in Q3 is driven by a mix -- a higher mix into full price selling and a pullback in promotional activity within the quarter. We also saw balanced growth on basket size across both channels and on a year-over-year basis drove expansion of that basket. So very healthy indicators looking at the metrics of the quarter.

Thanks, Brad. And forgive me, I inadvertently referred to Stella McCartney as Linda McCartney. I'm showing my age there using her mom's name. So forgive me for that, Stella. Next question, please.

Our next question comes from Simeon Siegel with BMO Capital Markets.

Congrats on the ongoing progress. So just to follow up on that briefly on a different way of thinking about it. Any way to break out the 1% to 2% of supply chain sales pressure between the lost units versus maybe kind of the offset that you have from being able to raise prices because of scarcity as you basically trying to think as we go forward, how you see the balance of units versus AUR as supply chain does ultimately reopen. And maybe as a follow-up to that, how are you buying inventory at this point into next year?

Yes. I'll start with some color around supply chain. And maybe won't directly answer your question, Simeon, but I'll give us a sense of what's going on in supply chain, which should hopefully be of use to everybody. So as it relates to the fourth quarter and the back half of the year, we ordered -- to go into the season, we ordered in the order of round numbers, 200 million units of stuff and 90 million of those 200 million are delayed. That's 45% of our purchase requirements or the 4 season's delay. And the delays are between 2 and 9 weeks. And in some cases, we won't get the merchandise at all.

So all of our plans are being reworked. 90% of our merchandise will come in by air. And that doesn't make it super quick because air in the old days, meaning a year ago, used to be 2 days, it's now more like 9 days. And in addition to that, we have 100 vessels at anchor right now that are not coming ashore. And all of that winds up to $150 million worth of cost pressure, $50 million of which we recorded in the third quarter, $100 million of which will be in the fourth quarter. So it's a really big thing. I don't buy the scarcity equals more -- equals faster selling. We don't see that happening at all.

If I look at a category like PJs right now, 25% of our PJs are late. Today, we have 30% less PJs in our system than we had a year ago. That is clearly bad for business. And so it impacts the customer and that she doesn't see the array of newness that she's used to seeing at this time of year. Now that will put pressure on November. We hope that December will be better, and we're expecting that December will be better. And we think that there's some upside in January as well.

The biggest issue, frankly, and you alluded to it a little bit in your question, is the lack of ability to chase. So normally, we would buy a season at 55% or 45% chase. We can't do that now. You got to place all of your bets. And the same will be true for the spring season, and that it's just not safe to leave orders on the table, money on the table and chase to it later. So more buying forward, longer lead times, less agility in our supply chain, more reworking of our plans on a daily basis to respond to what we have. With all of that said, customer doesn't care. She didn't come into our shops and say, "Oh, I see that they've got some delays." So our job is to just make the best out of the assortment that we've got, and that's what we're doing on a day-to-day basis. So I hope that gives you more color on the question, but if there's anything I missed, please jump back in.

The next question comes from Matthew Boss with JPMorgan.

I had some technical difficulties there to start off the queue. So congrats on a really nice quarter. Martin or TJ, so on the multiyear mid-single-digit revenue target -- thanks for all the color on the fourth quarter. And my sense is that maybe there's a little lumpiness as we start the year with supply chain and lapping stimulus. But as we think about that multiyear mid-single-digit annual run rate, is there any change in your confidence? I mean I think that's where you see the category growing, seems like there's opportunity relative to the category, potentially on a market share perspective.

But if you could just kind of walk us through that annual target. Is that an annual step-up that we need to hit that target? Or was that a mid-single-digit target that you planned on hitting each year if there weren't any of these kind of onetime transitory items?

Thanks, Matt, and welcome back. So as you know, this call is all about the third quarter looking backwards and staring forward into the fourth quarter. So we're not spending a lot of time on our multiyear analysis, but I can answer your question, which is we believe in the target of mid-single-digit growth per year on the basis that, that just keeps pace with market growth. So we are not guiding to growth in market share. We're just saying if the categories we operate in -- and they are good categories, as you know, if the categories that we operate in are growing at mid-single digit, then we should do same. Is there a reason to believe we could do better than that? There is.

But equally, the competitive environment has changed beyond all recognition during the 4 years of our execution missteps. So we don't have the God-given right to assume the market shares that we had in the old days, the landscape has changed. So I think we'll do incredibly well if we keep pace with the current market. And we have reason to believe we might do better, but we're not guiding to that. Hope that helps, Matt.

The next question comes from Susan Anderson with B. Riley.

Alec Legg on for Susan. Nice job on the quarter. But yes, my question is just related to -- on the website, you have the brands we love section, which is essentially a third-party marketplace and it carries some high-heat brands such as UGG. How big is that for the overall business and thoughts on the direction of that going forward?

Well, that's a great question. I love that question. I think that there is very high strategic significance and the idea of aggregating other people's content. I think it's a very big idea for us, one that we haven't leveraged previously. So if you attended our analyst call that we had just before the time of the spin, I talked about 1 of the 4 pillars of the brand going forward, being aggregation and it speaks to exactly this.

So there are 3 reasons why I think it's a good idea. Number one, if it gets us, it meaning the idea of other people's content, if it gets us to categories or segments where we're currently underway, that's a good idea. If it gets us to customer groups where we're currently underway, that's a good idea. If the brand adds to the halo of our overarching Victoria's Secret positioning, it's a good idea.

Most of those 3 parts of the rationale, there are several places we could go. For example, extended sizes on the small end and the big end. So a beautiful example, launched this week is MINDD bras, but a fantastic product where 5 sizes of bra in the category of DD and above get you to something like 38 different sizes of bras. So it's an incredible innovation, a really wonderful product at an accessible price point. Why wouldn't we partner with them to do something good? So you should expect to see more in that area, including rethinking the way that we badge it, including rethinking the way that we assort and edit what's in that collection to be -- to finesse it more so that it isn't just a collection of interesting stuff, it actually has real purpose and that it aligns to our strategic purpose around advocating for women and uplifting and championing women, great and lifelong relationships with women and the power of advocacy and all of that.

You ask how big it is, it's currently less than $100 million. But I think there is significant growth there for us in the years ahead. And we've created a specific department led by Patti Cazzato to get after that opportunity. So thanks for the question. I appreciate it.

The next question comes from Kimberly Greenberger with Morgan Stanley.

This is Alex Straton on for Kimberly Greenberger. I just have a quick question on your cash levels. It looks like you ended the quarter with over $300 million in cash already. Do you have any plans for how to use that? How much leverage is the business comfortable carrying? Just trying to get a sense for the use of cash flow if you have any plans for that in the near term.

Thanks for the question. And absolutely, we're very pleased with where we ended the third quarter, very strong cash position at $330 million, as you mentioned. As we look out over the fourth quarter, if you were to take our guidance and kind of roll that out, that has us sit at cash balance at the end of the year, probably in the range of $700 million to $750 million, with arguably light leverage in the business. We feel like we have significant dry powder going into 2022.

And as we've talked about before, kind of the run rate of the business is EBITDA and a $1.2 billion basis. So we have a lot of flexibility on different ways that we can go. Having said that, investing back into the business to grow our core business or look into emerging businesses, as Martin just mentioned, and growing relationships there, we think there's a number of different ways that we could grow our internal business. And that normally is the best return opportunity for shareholders and for the company.

Having said that, we have so -- we'll have so much cash on hand and availability that we will definitely be looking at capital allocation opportunities with our Board of Directors. We've stated on a number of occasions. We want to make sure we get through holiday where we generate the majority of our cash and have a comprehensive view of 2022 that we can share with you strategically and capital allocation will be a part of that. So look forward to our communication end of February, beginning of March when we give fourth quarter earnings and start to talk about 2022.

The next question comes from Adrienne Yih with Barclays.

Yes. Let me add congratulations on the progress of store, the product looks great. I wish you had more of it. Martin, I guess my first question is to talk about these 5 consecutive quarters of average unit retail increase. Clearly, we're seeing a lot of promos, but we're also seeing initial retail, wondering what's happening with the initial retail side of things. I imagine, I guess, that the consumer is responding to whatever you're doing.

And then two other quick questions kind of more on the payroll side of things. What is your current average hourly rate with your ability to stack managerial and associate levels within the stores? And is there any type of long-term technology that you are investing in either in the stores or DCs to increase automation and productivity?

So why don't I take the last two. There were multiple questions there, but I'll take the last two because I couldn't get the direction of the first. So on the last two, our hourly rate for associates differs across the geographies of the United States. So it isn't reasonable to call out a single number. And when you do -- if I do call out a single number, people who are under that level, say, "Oh, that's not what I'm getting." People who are over will say, "I'm getting much more than that." So it isn't really a meaningful number. What I will tell you is that there has been a modest increase in the rate that we're paying in our stores.

Right now, we have 25,000 people in our associate population. At peak, we're probably looking to get to about 30,000 people. So we're well underway to getting to peak for the December period. And we've not found too much of an obstacle in getting the people that we want. And that's partly due to the health of the brand and the happy and healthy culture that we've created that people want to work for us. So we haven't -- we have moved wages a little bit, but not in a particularly meaningful way.

As it relates to DCs, actually, our wage rates are up in a more meaningful way in the warehouse, very meaningful increases as that's a very, very competitive environment here in Central Ohio where the majority of our DC operations are. And yes, as I mentioned earlier, we do have a fully automated DC up and running that will deliver about 1/3 of our direct-to-consumer, maybe 40% of our direct-to-consumer merchandise for this holiday period. It's the result of $150 million investment over a couple of year period. It's very, very impressive. And if you're ever in Columbus, Ohio, I'd love to show you around.

Brad or Jason, do you want to take the other questions? TJ?

Yes. I think if I understood your question right -- so this is TJ. It was focused on -- I think you mentioned 5 consecutive quarters of average unit retail increase and kind of how we're feeling about that relative to promotion, et cetera. I think the short answer is, I think we feel very good about how our mix of selling, transpired during the third quarter and how we're positioned for fourth quarter.

As Martin mentioned earlier, regular price selling was actually up a little bit and promotional and red line selling was actually down a little bit. And I think that, that was maybe a little different than what we were hearing back from investors during the quarter. I think what we were hearing was that was a feeling we were being more promotional. And I think the numbers and the margin rate performance in the quarter, don't bear that out.

So I think what you were feeling from a promotional side was better execution in terms of messaging, being clear and being very bold when we have something to say from a promotional standpoint. So the performance by business was a little bit different. So a little stronger regular price selling in Lingerie, as an example, as Martin mentioned, particularly around bras and the launches. But overall, we're pleased with kind of how regular price versus promo activity is trending in the business.

As we look into fourth quarter, it's important that everybody understand it, as we've talked about multiple times now already, the timing of when we receive deliveries, the glide path to holiday and the glide path to January and so in exiting the quarter, depending on when deliveries actually hit and hit stores, we will need to be flexible with our pricing. So as you think about the messaging you're seeing from us, just keep that in mind and kind of pivot back and look at our margin guidance and know that we've tried to take that into account.

Our next question comes from Marni Shapiro with The Retail Tracker.

Congratulations. Stores look great. Martin, you guys have done a really fantastic job of not just expanding sizes but changing your marketing to speak to this customer. And so I'm curious if you could talk a little bit about growth in this category in bras and panties. Are you seeing that outpace your regular-sized business? And could you also talk about the growth in the customer file, in particular, on that side?

Marni, thank you for the first question, and thank you for the congratulations. We appreciate it. As I mentioned, we are seeing our strongest growth coming out of intimates, and that's important because we're a bra company. So bra is the best growing part of the business. It's coming from all sizes to be honest. So we are seeing some pickup from the extended sizes, but the growth isn't exclusively in that area. It's in all areas. I'll somewhat get to your question about the file by telling you that in the last quarter, Q3, about 46% of our customers that we can see and recognize, were new to the business. That's a lot. 46% of our customers were new to the business. That shows that we're speaking to a new community.

And as you know, speaking to millennials and Gen Zs is our target rather than necessarily winning back consumers. So I fuss less about how big or how small the customer is, whether she's old or she's young, whether she's been in our stores or not, just fuss about making the best possible impression we can and every interaction we have with the customer either polishers or tarnishes the brand. I'd like that ratio to be 100:0. It clearly hasn't been in our history. And so we've just got to set ourselves straight in that regard.

What I was going to tell you about the customer file. The file after -- I think, 4 year (inaudible) I think 4 years of decline, several years of decline. We saw an uptick in Q2, and we saw a strong uptick in Q3. So net $400,000 -- sorry, 400,000 customers new came to the file. And that reflects growth of several million new customers. And the usual attrition of those retiring people who haven't purchased with us for a year or so. So net growth in the file is a very, very strong and positive indicator.

For obvious reasons, Marni, I don't know how big or how small those customers are. I don't -- as I said, I don't really care. I think we just need to reflect the customer base at large and everything that we do in our workforce and the way that we show it with imageries, with the mannequins that we have in stores, every aspect of our business needs to reflect current culture, relevant culture and the shape and the nature of our customer base, and we're getting much better in that regard, and I think the customer is noticing.

That's outstanding. And are you seeing the customers come in digitally or in stores or a mixture of both?

It's a mixture of both. And as I said, our favorite customer is she who shops in stores and online together. So they're the ones that we really want to attract. And so as we think about building capability into 2022, building that omni focus will be important to us so that we encourage the customer to shop in both channels.

Nothing gives me greater pleasure than somebody coming into our stores having a wonderful customer experience buying nothing and then ordering online perfectly lovely. It's a great thing to do. So we have 3 stores of the future coming, as you know, nobody's asked me about them. I'll tell you. (inaudible)

Tomorrow, tomorrow, I will be in Chicago for the opening. Actually, I think it opens on Saturday. I'll be there for the preopening tomorrow. And that's exciting because there are some aspects of that representation, that new presentation that speak to the idea of having an omnichannel customer. And then we've got a couple more opening in January, and I'm pretty sure that they will lead to some further developments and changes and enhancements in the fleet at wide during '22 and '23. So thanks for the encouragement, Marni. We appreciate it.

The next question comes from Janet Kloppenburg with JJK Research Associates.

Congratulations on a good quarter. I just wanted to get back to the supply chain pressures. The first question is, is there any chance that some of these delayed shipments of holiday product come in too late and that forces some markdowns or higher-than-expected markdowns in the post season? Just wondering about that. And also just wondering about your outlook for the supply chain pressure in the first quarter? Or how do you see that unfolding? Can it improve? Or do you think it could continue to be as difficult?

Great. Thanks, Janet. So I got 3 questions there. So the first one, yes, there is some merchandise that's at risk of not getting here, and we got in front of that by canceling. So of the -- I mentioned earlier, 200 million units of something that is on its way to us. That number was 210 million back in August. We looked at what was in danger of -- that was kind of seasonally biased and that was in danger of not coming and canceled it. So about 10 million units canceled. Anything that is really seasonal that needs to sell before December 25, we're confident that it will come in time. So we feel in good shape on that.

We do think that we will have higher carryovers of merchandise like PJs and robes and slippers and other things into January than we've had in previous years. And we're kind of okay about that, because we know that last year, we left money on the table in January. So it will be interesting to see how our full price selling matures during that period. So I don't feel -- over to your second question, I don't feel overly stressed about markdowns. I do think the stores will be more full of inventory in December and mid-December, late December than the customer is used to seeing, and we just got to hold on and let it play out.

I think you've been following this game for a long time as I have. That skill is in how you play your cards on a day-to-day basis, and we have a stand-up meeting every morning to look at -- during December to look at what happened in the previous day, and we'll adjust accordingly. So I'm not overly concerned about markdowns, but we'll be on the lookout.

As it relates to the first quarter, we're deliberately not guiding, as I've said a lot. But no question, there will be supply chain pressure in the first quarter. No question, because we're already moving stuff out of boats to airplanes. So we're not dimensioning it for you today because our focus is where our focus is. But yes, there will be pressure into 2022, no doubt. Same for everybody.

But do you expect it could improve, Martin, or you're not sure?

I'm an optimist by nature. So I'm the guy who's going to go, "Don't worry. It's all going to be better." I mean the reality is this is long lead time stuff, right? So we already know what's coming for February. We already know that some of it's impacted. So my reality check against my optimism says, expect it to be about the same until further notice.

And our final question comes from Oliver Chen with Cowen.

This is Jonna on for Oliver. Just curious about the store refresh as you progress during the year and next year. Are you seeing any improvement in comp sales from refresh? And also, are you seeing improvement in the market where those refreshed stores are in, in terms of e-com sales? So any color will be helpful.

I'm going to answer that with a "not really," on the basis that we improved every store in the chain. So we didn't have a holdout group where we said, "Oh, let's keep these stores looking terrible and see what the difference is." We decided it was strategically important to make a refresh everywhere right across our fleet. And so every store has been touched to some level or another. And again, in terms of where we invest our energy, I've not been particularly fussed about saying, "Can you tell me where we put the extra paint paid off better than where it didn't?" It kind of doesn't matter. What I am focused on is the ROI that's in our future related to store of the future, and that will reveal itself during the first quarter.

What I am fussed about is the ROI as it relates to new real estate. So we'll be putting down at least 10 new stores in 2022 to get after a different kind of real estate that we've not been in previously or not been heavily penetrated in previously, which is off-mall locations, which as you probably know, are growing, and we are underrepresented. So when we get those stores open, I think the first one opens in May, June, and then we have, as I said, at least 10 openings. Those will be very important for us to see how they play out because they could offer us indicators for what our CapEx will look like in '23 and '24 and beyond. So not much to say about the refresh, lots to say about store of the future and new stores as we get into 2020. Hope that helps.

Thanks, everyone. That concludes our call this morning. Thanks for your continuing interest in Victoria's Secret & Co.

Thanks, everybody.

Thank you, and that concludes today's conference. You may all disconnect at this time.