Verisk Analytics Inc (VRSK) 2016 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to Verisk Analytics first-quarter 2016 earnings results conference call.

大家好，歡迎參加 Verisk Analytics 2016 年第一季財報電話會議。

This call is being recorded.

本次通話正在錄音。

At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Verisk's SVP and Treasurer, Ms. Eva Huston. Ms. Huston, please go ahead.

現在，我謹將電話交給Verisk公司的高級副總裁兼財務主管伊娃·休斯頓女士，請她致開幕詞並作介紹。休斯頓女士，請開始吧。

Thank you, Chris, and good morning to everybody. We appreciate you joining us today for discussion of our first-quarter 2016 financial results.

謝謝克里斯，大家早安。感謝各位今天蒞臨，與我們共同探討2016年第一季的財務表現。

With me on the call this morning are Scott Stephenson, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer, and Mark Anquillare, Chief Financial Officer. Following comments by Scott and Mark highlighting some key points about our strategic priorities and financial performance, we will open up the call for your questions.

今天早上與我一同參加電話會議的有董事長、總裁兼執行長史考特‧史蒂芬森先生，以及財務長馬克‧安奎拉雷先生。史考特和馬克將首先就我們的策略重點和財務表現發表講話，之後我們將開放提問環節。

Unless stated otherwise, all the results we discuss today will reflect the classification of the healthcare business to (technical difficulty) operations. The earnings release referenced on this call, as well as the associated 10-Q, can be found in the investor section of our website at Verisk.com. The earnings release has also been attached to an 8-K that we have furnished to the SEC. A replay of this call will be available for 30 days on our website and by dial in.

除非另有說明，我們今天討論的所有業績均將醫療保健業務歸類為（技術難度較高）營運。本次電話會議中提及的獲利報告以及相關的10-Q表格，可在Verisk.com網站的投資者關係板塊找到。該盈利報告也已附在我們提交給美國證券交易委員會（SEC）的8-K表格中。本次電話會議的錄音回放將在我們的網站上保留30天，也可透過電話撥入收聽。

And finally, as set forth in more detail in yesterday's earnings release, I will remind everybody that today's call may include forward-looking statements about Verisk's future performance. Actual performance could differ materially from what is suggested by our comments today. Information about the factors that could affect future performance is summarized at the end of our press release, as well as contained in our recent SEC filings.

最後，正如昨天發布的財報中更詳細闡述的那樣，我要提醒大家，今天的電話會議可能包含關於Verisk未來業績的前瞻性陳述。實際業績可能與我們今天所作的陳述有重大差異。可能影響未來績效的因素概述已在新聞稿末尾列出，並包含在我們近期提交給美國證券交易委員會（SEC）的文件中。

And now, I will turn the call over to Scott.

現在，我將把電話交給史考特。

Thanks, Eva. Good morning, all.

謝謝你，伊娃。大家早安。

In the first quarter, we delivered strong overall results, with total revenue growth of 28%, EBITDA growth of 24%, and an increase in diluted adjusted EPS of 19%.

第一季度，我們取得了強勁的整體業績，總收入成長了 28%，EBITDA 成長了 24%，稀釋調整後每股盈餘成長了 19%。

Organic revenue growth was 5%, and was 7% excluding the first-quarter 2015 nonrecurring project revenue at Argus and a one-time true-up of partner revenue this year in the Decision Analytics Insurance segment. Profitability remains strong, with total EBITDA margins of 50%.

有機收入成長5%，若不計入Argus 2015年第一季非經常性項目收入以及今年決策分析保險業務板塊一次性調整的合作夥伴收入，則有機收入增長為7%。獲利能力依然強勁，總EBITDA利潤率達50%。

We continue to be encouraged about the performance of our businesses in our key verticals of insurance, financial services, and energy. This quarter is a good start to the year, and we will look to build on these results.

我們持續對保險、金融服務和能源這三大核心業務部門的業績表現感到鼓舞。本季開局良好，我們期待在此基礎上再創佳績。

On April 25, 2016, as you know, we announced the signing of a definitive agreement to sell the healthcare business to Veritas Capital for $820 million. We expect the sale to close by the end of the second quarter.

如您所知，2016年4月25日，我們宣布簽署最終協議，以8.2億美元的價格將醫療保健業務出售給Veritas Capital。我們預計交易將於第二季末完成。

The returns we generated on the business reflect value creation for shareholders, with a pretax IRR of about 12%, through our ownership period, which began in 2004. One of our most important responsibilities is the careful stewardship of our shareholders' capital. We continually assess our assets and their productivity, as well as opportunities to deploy new capital in line with our strategic priorities.

自2004年我們持有公司以來，公司業務的報酬反映了股東價值的創造，稅前內部報酬率約為12%。我們最重要的職責之一是謹慎管理股東的資本。我們會持續評估公司資產及其生產力，並根據策略重點尋找部署新資本的機會。

Consistent with our capital allocation approach, we identified and evaluated a range of alternatives. We determined that we have better uses for the capital invested in the business and for any future capital, which would've been required to make the operations more Verisk-like.

根據我們的資本配置策略，我們識別並評估了一系列備選方案。我們認為，對於已投入該業務的資本以及未來為使營運更像 Verisk 模式所需的任何資本，我們都有更好的用途。

Additionally, we believe that Management time should be directed to areas where we can of the most impact in driving shareholder returns. This transaction will allow us to focus on data analytics businesses in our key verticals, which are most closely aligned with our strategy, our distinctives, and global ambitions, and where we believe we can have the most value.

此外，我們認為管理階層應將精力投入到能最大程度提升股東回報的領域。這項交易將使我們能夠專注於關鍵垂直領域的數據分析業務，這些業務與我們的策略、獨特優勢和全球願景最為契合，也是我們相信能夠創造最大價值的領域。

The majority of the proceeds will be allocated towards future acquisitions and repurchases, consistent with our long-term approach we've discussed with you in the past. We remain committed to our 2.5 times steady-state leverage. Pro forma for the sale of the healthcare business and related proceeds, at March 31, we would have been at that level. I'm glad to have found strong ownership for our healthcare business and very much wish the team continued success.

大部分收益將用於未來的收購和回購，這與我們之前與您討論過的長期策略一致。我們將繼續維持2.5倍的穩定槓桿率。若計入出售醫療保健業務及相關收益，截至3月31日，我們的槓桿率將達到此水準。我很高興我們的醫療保健業務找到了實力雄厚的買家，並衷心祝福團隊繼續取得成功。

We go forward from here better aligned with the key distinctives, which mark excellent vertical data analytics businesses. We have higher margins, more stable revenue growth, less seasonality, a higher mix of subscription revenue, and stronger free cash flow conversion post this transaction. Overall, we look even more like the Verisk business model that we all value.

我們未來的發展將更加契合那些卓越的垂直數據分析企業的關鍵特徵。交易完成後，我們將擁有更高的利潤率、更穩定的收入成長、更低的季節性波動、更高的訂閱收入佔比以及更強的自由現金流轉換率。總而言之，我們更符合我們所珍視的Verisk商業模式。

During the quarter, we returned capital to shareholders through the repurchase of $116 million of our stock. At March 31, 2016, we have $353 million remaining under our share repurchase authorization. In addition we remain active looking for strategic and financially sound tuck in acquisitions.

本季度，我們透過回購股票向股東返還了1.16億美元的資金。截至2016年3月31日，我們的股票回購授權額度還剩3.53億美元。此外，我們仍在積極尋找具有策略意義且財務狀況良好的補充收購目標。

As you may have seen, we recently acquired Risk Intelligence Ireland, a leading provider of fraud detection compliance, risk control, and process automation services to the Irish insurance industry, which becomes part of our ISO solutions business. This acquisition advances our efforts to expand our insurance business beyond the United States.

如您所見，我們近期收購了愛爾蘭風險情報公司（Risk Intelligence Ireland），該公司是愛爾蘭保險業領先的詐欺偵測合規、風險控制和流程自動化服務提供商，現已併入我們的ISO解決方案業務。此次收購有助於我們拓展美國以外的保險業務。

We remain constructive on the outlook and expect acceleration in our combined insurance businesses and double-digit growth at Argus. Wood Mack continues to perform remarkably well in an environment which is extraordinarily difficult for our customers. The team is working very hard to achieve growth for the year, even as we acknowledge the macro environment continues to be challenging relative to historic norms.

我們對前景依然保持樂觀，預計合併後的保險業務將加速成長，Argus也將達到兩位數成長。在客戶面臨極度艱辛的環境下，Wood Mack的表現依然十分出色。儘管我們承認宏觀環境相對於歷史常態而言依然充滿挑戰，但團隊仍在全力以赴，力爭實現年度成長。

In a recent achievement of note, Verisk was included in the Forbes list of America's Best Employers 2016. This follows our inclusion in the Forbes World's Most Innovative Companies list. Verisk is only one of 15 companies to appear on both lists.

近期一項值得關注的成就是，Verisk 入選了《富比士》2016 年美國最佳雇主榜單。此前，我們已榮登《富比士》全球最具創新力公司榜單。 Verisk 是僅有的 15 家同時出現在這兩個榜單上的公司之一。

We are working hard to attract and retain great talent as we continue to make progress fostering a culture of innovation. We apply that innovative thinking in working with our customers to find new solutions to their challenges by leveraging our unique data assets and methods. And I personally am inspired by the efforts of our people, and I think that shows through in the results we've been delivering. We are well-positioned to execute on our strategies and global ambitions in the future.

我們正努力吸引和留住優秀人才，並持續推動創新文化的建設。我們運用這種創新思維與客戶合作，利用我們獨特的數據資產和方法，為他們面臨的挑戰尋找新的解決方案。我個人深受員工努力的鼓舞，我認為這一點在我們所取得的成果中得到了充分體現。我們已做好充分準備，在未來實現我們的策略和全球目標。

So with that, let me turn it over to Mark to cover our financial results in more detail.

那麼，接下來就交給馬克，讓他更詳細地介紹我們的財務表現。

Thank you, Scott.

謝謝你，斯科特。

In the first quarter, we again delivered both revenue and EBITDA growth, while also investing for the future. Revenue grew 28.2%. Organic revenue grew 5% excluding recent acquisitions.

第一季度，我們再次實現了營收和 EBITDA 的雙重成長，同時也進行了面向未來的投資。營收成長了 28.2%。剔除近期收購的影響，有機營收成長了 5%。

If you adjust for the $11 million nonrecurring project revenue in Argus in the first quarter 2015 and several million dollars of true-up revenue in Decision Analytics Insurance this year, organic revenue growth was 7% in the quarter. EBITDA grew 24%, to $248 million. EBITDA margins were 50.4% for the quarter.

若剔除2015年第一季Argus的1,100萬美元非經常性項目收入以及今年Decision Analytics Insurance數百萬美元的調整後收入，則該季度有機收入增長率為7%。 EBITDA成長24%，達到2.48億美元。該季度EBITDA利潤率為50.4%。

Within the Decision Analytics segment, revenue grew 46.7%, and 4.8% in the first quarter, excluding acquisitions. Adjusting for the nonrecurring financial services project revenue last year and true-up insurance revenue this year, organic revenue growth in the segment was 8.5%. Revenue in the quarter was again driven by insurance.

在決策分析業務板塊，營收成長46.7%，第一季成長4.8%（不計收購）。剔除去年非經常性金融服務項目收入和今年調整後的保險收入後，該板塊的有機營收成長率為8.5%。本季營收成長仍主要由保險業務推動。

Decision Analytics Insurance revenue grew 11.6% in the first quarter. The increase was led by strong growth in claims analytics solutions, with good growth in loss quantification, catastrophe modeling, and underwriting solutions in the quarter. Even excluding the $7 million of true-up revenue, growth in Decision Analytics Insurance was about 9%.

決策分析保險業務第一季營收成長11.6%。這一成長主要得益於理賠分析解決方案的強勁成長，其中損失量化、巨災建模和承保解決方案在本季度均實現了良好成長。即使剔除700萬美元的調整收入，決策分析保險業務的成長率也約為9%。

Financial services revenue decreased 19% in the quarter, and increased 17.7% after adjusting for last year's nonrecurring project revenue, with solid underlying demand for our core solutions and services, offset by prior-year project revenue $11 million, which did not recur in 2016.

本季金融服務收入下降了 19%，但在扣除去年非經常性項目收入後增長了 17.7%，這得益於我們核心解決方案和服務的強勁潛在需求，但被上年 1100 萬美元的項目收入所抵消，而這筆收入在 2016 年並未再次發生。

Energy and specialized markets revenue grew by over 350%, including the recently acquired Wood Mackenzie, PCI, and Infield businesses. Organic revenue decline 3.6%, as growth in environmental health and safety solutions was offset by a decline in weather and climate analytics.

能源和專業市場收入成長超過350%，其中包括近期收購的伍德麥肯錫（Wood Mackenzie）、PCI和Infield業務。有機收入下降3.6%，原因是環境健康與安全解決方案的成長被天氣和氣候分析業務的下滑所抵消。

Wood Mack revenue in constant currency, excluding PCI and Infield, increased slightly in the first quarter 2016, and as reported, declined slightly when including effective purchase accounting. We expect pro forma constant currency revenue to be flat in the second quarter, as reported. As we think about the full-year outlook, as reported, we expect to be near flat. Also, as we move through the year, keep in mind that currency will have an impact on our reported results.

2016年第一季度，伍德麥克公司（Wood Mack）以固定匯率計算的收入（不包括PCI和Infield業務）略有增長；但按報告數據，若計入有效收購會計處理，則收入略有下降。我們預計第二季以備考固定匯率計算的營收將與上季持平。展望全年，我們預計全年營收也將與上季基本持平。此外，隨著時間的推移，匯率波動將對我們的報告業績產生影響。

Risk Assessment revenue grew 5.2%, continuing to demonstrate the value of our long-standing insurance customers. Industry-standard insurance programs revenue grew 5.2%, reflecting our 2016 invoices, which were effective January 1 and continued contribution from newer solutions such as predictive models and electronic rating content. Our property-specific rating and underwriting information revenue increased, up 4.9% in the quarter. This increase was driven by higher committed volumes in our commercial underwriting business.

風險評估收入成長5.2%，持續反映了我們長期保險客戶的價值。業界標準保險項目收入成長5.2%，反映了我們2016年的發票（自1月1日起生效）以及預測模型和電子評級內容等新型解決方案的持續貢獻。我們的特定財產評級和承保資訊收入在本季成長4.9%。這一增長主要得益於我們商業承保業務的承保量增加。

EBITDA increased 24% in the quarter, to $248 million, resulting in EBITDA margins of 50.4%. Decision Analytics EBITDA increased 40%, to $139 million in the quarter, as a result of acquisitions and profitable growth in the business. The EBITDA in Risk Assessment increased 8.3%, to $109 million, as a result revenue growth and good expense management.

本季 EBITDA 成長 24%，達到 2.48 億美元，EBITDA 利潤率為 50.4%。決策分析業務的 EBITDA 成長 40%，達到 1.39 億美元，主要得益於收購和業務獲利成長。風險評估業務的 EBITDA 成長 8.3%，達到 1.09 億美元，主要得益於收入成長和良好的費用控制。

Reported interest expense was $32 million in the quarter. Total debt was $3 billion at March 31, 2016. Our leverage at the end of first quarter was about 2.6 times. After the sale of the healthcare business, we expect to be at the 2.5-times leverage target ahead of plan.

本季度報告的利息支出為3200萬美元。截至2016年3月31日，總負債為30億美元。第一季末，我們的槓桿率約為2.6倍。在出售醫療保健業務後，我們預計將提前達到2.5倍的槓桿率目標。

Our reported effective tax rate was 31.7% for the quarter. Adjusted net income increased 26.1% to $127 million in the quarter. Adjusted EPS on a fully diluted basis was $0.75 for the quarter, an increase of 19%.

本季度報告的實際稅率為31.7%。經調整後的淨利成長26.1%至1.27億美元。調整後的每股收益（完全攤薄後）為0.75美元，成長19%。

Discontinued operations includes about $0.03 related to healthcare operations and a negative $0.11 for a tax liability as a result of classifying healthcare business as discontinued ops. As a result, we reported discontinued operations adjusted EPS of a negative $0.08.

終止經營業務包括與醫療保健業務相關的約 0.03 美元，以及因將醫療保健業務歸類為終止經營業務而產生的負 0.11 美元稅項負債。因此，我們報告的終止經營業務調整後每股收益為負 0.08 美元。

The average diluted share count was 171.5 million shares in the quarter. On March 31, 2016, our diluted share count was 170.9 million shares. For shares purchased in the quarter, the average price paid was $69.97. At March 31, 2016, the Company had about $353 million remaining under our share repurchase authorization. Our share repurchase program has been successful to date, generating annualized IRRs above our cost of capital.

本季平均稀釋後股數為1.715億股。截至2016年3月31日，稀釋後股數為1.709億股。本季回購股份的平均價格為每股69.97美元。截至2016年3月31日，該公司在股份回購授權範圍內仍有約3.53億美元的剩餘額度。迄今為止，我們的股份回購計畫取得了成功，產生的年化內部報酬率高於我們的資本成本。

Free cash flow increased 20% to $256 million for the first three months ended March 31, 2016, including Wood Mack. This represented 103.2% of EBITDA, as our first quarter is typically our strongest for free cash flow generation due to invoicing patterns. These numbers are all for continuing operations.

截至2016年3月31日的前三個月，包括伍德麥克在內，自由現金流增加20%至2.56億美元。這相當於EBITDA的103.2%，因為通常情況下，由於發票開立模式的原因，第一季是我們自由現金流最強勁的時期。以上數據均指持續經營業務。

Growth in free cash flow is driven by improved profitability of our business and stable CapEx, partially offset by higher interest rates and fees related to the acquisition of Wood Mack. Capital expenditures increased 22.7%, to $25 million, for the three-month period ended March 31, 2016, driven in part by the addition of Wood Mack. CapEx was 5.1% of revenue.

自由現金流成長主要得益於業務獲利能力的提升和穩定的資本支出，但部分被更高的利率以及收購伍德麥克公司相關的費用所抵銷。截至2016年3月31日的三個月期間，資本支出增加22.7%，達到2,500萬美元，部分原因是收購了伍德麥克公司。資本支出佔收入的5.1%。

We now expect to have CapEx of about $150 million to $155 million pro forma for the divestiture of the healthcare business. We continue to manage our capital intensity.

我們預計剝離醫療保健業務的備考資本支出約為1.5億美元至1.55億美元。我們將繼續控制資本密集度。

We are pleased with the announced agreement to sell the healthcare business and the opportunity to focus on our core competencies and our distinctives. The sales price of $820 million consists of $720 million in cash, a $100-million subordinated promissory note, and other contingent consideration.

我們對已宣布的出售醫療保健業務的協議感到欣慰，並期待藉此機會專注於我們的核心競爭力和獨特優勢。此次交易售價為8.2億美元，其中包括7.2億美元現金、1億美元次級本票以及其他或有對價。

As you saw on our 10-Q the note has an eight-year maturity and a 9% PIK interest rate. The contingent consideration, which is unrelated to the note, is tied to the future value of the healthcare business and provides upside to our sales price under certain conditions. We expect the deal to close by the end of the second quarter.

正如您在我們的 10-Q 文件中所見，該票據期限為八年，實物支付利率為 9%。或有對價與該票據無關，它與醫療保健業務的未來價值掛鉤，並在特定條件下提升我們的銷售價格。我們預計交易將於第二季末完成。

We anticipate the after-tax proceeds of approximately $675 million, of which about $600 million will be received at closing and the remainder on the repayment of the promissory note. The proto-sized tax amounts will be determined after we've all adjusted for the working capital. On an estimated after-tax byes basis, the IRR generated exceeds our cost of capital.

我們預計稅後收益約為6.75億美元，其中約6億美元將在交易完成時收到，剩餘部分將在償還本票時收到。預估稅額將在調整完營運資本後確定。以稅後收益預估計算，產生的內部報酬率（IRR）高於我們的資本成本。

Of the cash proceeds, we expect that the majority will be allocated to our long-standing capital allocation priorities. In the near term, we intend to use the proceeds to repay our revolver drawings, but will then use that increased revolver capacity as opportunities arise for our long-term capital allocation plans.

我們預計，所得現金的大部分將用於我們長期以來的資本配置優先事項。短期內，我們計劃用所得款項償還循環信貸提取款項，之後將根據長期資本配置計劃的機遇，靈活運用增加的循環信貸額度。

While we manage the transition, some of the corporate costs to support the healthcare business will remain with Verisk. I'd like to thank all of our Verisk and Verisk Health Teams for the hard work that has gone into this transaction. We are excited for the future of Verisk, and we wish our colleagues at Verisk Health the very best as they move forward.

在過渡期間，Verisk仍將承擔部分用於支援醫療保健業務的企業成本。我要感謝Verisk和Verisk Health團隊所有成員為此次交易付出的辛勤努力。我們對Verisk的未來充滿信心，並祝福Verisk Health的同事們在未來的工作中一切順利。

As you think about your models for 2016 on a continuing operations basis, we encourage you to review table 8 in last night's press release, which contains selected financial metrics for 2015 on a continuing operation basis by quarter. We expect that based upon current FX rates, there is about a $10-million impact to full-year revenue relative to where rates were at the start of the year. As FX is a component that has become more relevant to Verisk, we would look to provide more insight going forward.

當您考慮2016年持續經營業務模型時，我們建議您參考昨晚新聞稿中的表8，該表列出了2015年持續經營業務的部分季度財務指標。我們預計，根據目前的匯率，全年收入將比年初的匯率水準減少約1,000萬美元。由於匯率對Verisk的影響日益顯著，我們將在未來提供更多相關資訊。

For the full year 2016, we expect CapEx of about $150 million to $155 million, fixed asset depreciation amortization of about $132 million, and amortization of intangibles of about $95 million. Based upon our current debt balances, we expect interest expense to be around $123 million.

我們預計2016年全年資本支出約1.5億美元至1.55億美元，固定資產折舊攤提約1.32億美元，無形資產攤提約9,500萬美元。根據我們目前的債務餘額，我們預計利息支出約為1.23億美元。

We estimate the tax rate to be in the range of 32% to 33%. The healthcare divestiture may help that tax rate a bit, but by less than 50 basis points, based upon the information we now have.

我們估計稅率在32%到33%之間。根據我們目前掌握的信息，剝離醫療保健業務或許能略微降低稅率，但降幅不到50個基點。

For the intangible amortization add back in the adjusted net income calculation, we will use 26% to reflect the tax rate applicable to our intangible assets. And finally, we expect the diluted weighted average share count of about 172 million shares before incremental repurchases. Overall, we are pleased with our plan for 2016 and excited about the go-forward financial profile of the Company. We are executing on our operational plans, and we are well-positioned for profitable growth in the future.

在調整後淨利計算中，我們將使用26%的稅率來提列無形資產攤銷，以反映適用於我們無形資產的稅率。最後，我們預計在進行增持股份之前，稀釋後的加權平均股份數約為1.72億股。整體而言，我們對2016年的計畫感到滿意，並對公司未來的財務狀況充滿信心。我們正在按計劃執行各項營運計劃，並已為未來的獲利成長做好了充分準備。

With that, I'll turn it back to Eva for comment before Q&A.

接下來，我將把問題交還給伊娃，請她發表意見，然後再進行問答環節。

Thanks, Mark.

謝謝你，馬克。

We appreciate all the interest in Verisk. Given the large number of analysts we have covering us, we ask that you limit your questions to one question and one follow up.

感謝大家對Verisk的關注。鑑於有大量分析師關注我們，請您將問題限制在一個問題內，並可提出後續問題。

And with that, I will ask the operator to open up the line for questions.

接下來，我將請接線生開通提問專線。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Your first question comes from the line of Bill Warmington from Wells Fargo.

你的第一個問題來自富國銀行的比爾沃明頓。

Good morning, everyone. Congratulations on selling the healthcare division and then also on crossing the 50% EBITDA margin threshold. And that's what my question is this morning is.

各位早安。恭喜你們成功出售醫療保健部門，也恭喜你們的 EBITDA 利潤率突破 50% 大關。這就是我今天早上要問的問題。

You've gone from a 43% to 45% range to a 45% to 47% range, and last -- at investor day, you talked about expanding margins over time. How should we think about that? Are you still committed to expanding the margins over time? And then also, how should we think about the quarterly margin progression throughout the year now that you don't have healthcare there?

你們的利潤率已經從 43% 到 45% 的區間提升到了 45% 到 47% 的區間，而且在上次的投資者日上，你們也談到了逐步提高利潤率。我們該如何看待這一點？你們是否仍致力於逐步提高利潤率？另外，既然你們已經剝離了醫療保健業務，我們又該如何看待全年的季度利潤率變化呢？

Sure, this is Mark, Bill. Thank you for the earlier comments.

當然，我是馬克，比爾。謝謝你之前的評論。

In the second quarter -- this is just the quarterly aspect, in response to your question. Second quarter, we do have our salary increases. A super majority of both merritt and promotional increases come in effective April 1, so that typically hurts us from a margin perspective as you progress through the year.

就您提出的問題而言，第二季度——這裡僅就季度層級而言——我們確實會在第二季度進行薪資調整。絕大多數的績效薪資成長和晉升加薪都將於4月1日生效，因此隨著時間的推移，這通常會對我們的利潤率造成一定影響。

What we also do is we give out our equity awards. So what will happen is this year's equity awards will come in. The equity awards from four years ago will move out, because they're vested. So those two things will affect the rest of the year.

我們也會發放股權獎勵。所以今年的股權獎勵會到賬，而四年前的股權獎勵會到期退出，因為它們已經歸屬。這兩件事都會影響今年剩下的時間。

The other thing we always like to just remind, we continue to make progress, but we did, for the most part, have this talent realignment in Risk Assessment. So there's some staff that we are continuing to hire, and that will ramp up as we progress through the year. We did some hiring in first quarter, but probably still a little bit behind the levels we expect. So those are the couple of points I will call out.

我們想再次強調的是，我們一直在取得進展，但總體而言，我們在風險評估方面進行了人才調整。因此，我們正在繼續招募一些員工，隨著時間的推移，招募力度將會加大。我們在第一季進行了一些招聘，但可能仍然略低於預期水準。以上就是我要強調的幾點。

The other thing that I think to your earlier question, remember, what we have is a business that's wonderfully scalable. It comes to how much investment we want to do, and we continue to talk about the opportunity to take advantage of that operating leverage. I don't think we see a lot of incremental investment relevant to revenues, so I think we have, over the long-term, an opportunity to continue to work on margins and move those in a positive direction.

關於你之前的問題，我想補充一點：我們擁有的是一個極具可擴展性的業務。關鍵在於我們願意投入多少資金，而我們也一直在探討如何利用這種營運槓桿效應。我認為我們不需要太多與營收相關的額外投資，所以從長遠來看，我們有機會繼續提升利潤率，並使其朝著正面的方向發展。

Thank you for the insight.

感謝您的見解。

Your next question comes from the line of Tim McHugh from William Blair. Your line is open.

您的下一個問題來自威廉布萊爾大學的提姆麥克休。您的提問專線已接通。

Thanks. Just questions on the insurance vertical.

謝謝。我有一些關於保險方面的問題。

One, can you elaborate a little bit more on, you mentioned growth was led by the claims analytics part of Decision Analytics, which I would have thought of as the most mature part of that business, so what's driving that growth?

第一，您能否再詳細說明一下，您提到成長是由決策分析中的理賠分析部分帶動的，我認為這是該業務中最成熟的部分，那麼是什麼推動了這種增長呢？

And then secondly, the true-up for -- I believe it was for Xactware, can you talk about that? And also from a margin perspective, does most of that revenue just flow through to the margin line? Just trying to understand how that impacted margins for the quarter.

其次，關於Xactware的調整——我記得是Xactware的——您能談談這方面的情況嗎？另外，從利潤率的角度來看，這部分收入是否大部分都計入了利潤？我只是想了解這如何影響了本季的利潤率。

Tim, it's Scott, and I'll take the first part of your question. There's something going on in claims, which actually is going on across many of the things we do in insurance, and that is, implicit in your question, we are well platformed. That is true. But what we've been doing is working to enhance the value in many cases by building around the platform, adding features which help the customers get more value out of what we're doing, and that's true not only on the claims side, but that's also true on the underwriting side, as well.

提姆，我是史考特，我先回答你問題的第一部分。理賠方面確實存在一些問題，實際上，我們保險業務的許多環節都存在類似的問題。正如你的問題所暗示的，我們的平台已經非常完善。沒錯。但我們一直在努力提昇平台的價值，透過圍繞平台進行構建，添加各種功能，幫助客戶從我們的工作中獲得更多價值。這不僅適用於理賠，也適用於承保。

So it's really not anyone thing. It's actually very broadly-based. New products that bring, for example, more analytic acuity to trying to figure out within the claims flows which claims should really get the most attention because they represent the greatest dollar recovery opportunity for the customers, and that's just one example. The general story is, think of it embroidering on top of the platforms we've already got. And then Mark, maybe want to take the question about the true up?

所以這並非針對某個人，而是涉及面非常廣。例如，新產品可以提升分析能力，幫助我們從理賠流程中找出哪些理賠最值得關注，因為它們代表客戶最大的追回金額的機會，這只是一個例子。總的來說，可以把它看作是對我們現有平台的錦上添花。馬克，或許你想談談「調整」的問題？

Sure. Inside of our insurance businesses, we have a lot of licenses and partnerships, which combine an upfront amount, and then there's true-ups based upon how much our partners sell. Inside the true up, we have a royalty component, and sometimes we need to true up past volumes or past royalty amounts, and that's what you are seeing in the first quarter.

當然。在我們的保險業務中，我們有很多授權和合作關係，這些合作包括一筆預付款，然後根據合作夥伴的銷售額進行結算。結算中包含特許權使用費，有時我們需要調整過去的銷售額或特許權使用費金額，這就是您在第一季看到的情況。

And is it really from a margin perspective? Is it right to think there's not a lot of offsetting cost when you true up --?

從利潤率的角度來看，真的是如此嗎？認為進行調整時沒有太多抵銷成本的想法是否正確？

That would be true. We incurred the cost probably in the past, like 2015, but correct.

沒錯。我們可能是在過去，例如2015年，已經承擔了這筆費用，但確實如此。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Meuler from Baird.

你的下一個問題來自 Baird 公司的 Jeff Meuler。

Yes, thank you. Just first to review what you said on Wood Mack; I think you said flat for full year as reported. I just wanted to verify, that includes an FX headwind, and then you are not adding back the acquired deferred from a purchase accounting standpoint. Are there any other adjustments in that number, and if you can remind us roughly, how much has the acquired deferred add back been adding to the Wood Mack year-over-year trends you had been reporting since the acquisition?

是的，謝謝。首先，我想回顧一下您之前關於伍德麥克公司（Wood Mack）的演講；我記得您提到全年業績持平，正如報告所述。我想確認一下，這個數字是否包含了匯率波動的影響，以及您是否沒有從收購會計的角度將收購的遞延收入加回。這個數字還有其他調整嗎？如果您能大致說明一下，收購遞延收入的加回對您自收購以來報告的伍德麥克公司年比趨勢產生了多大影響？

Just to clarify, what I said was on a constant currency basis, we'd be flat, as reported, so I want to make sure you -- you threw in the FX in on top of that, so I did want to call that out. We do try to factor that in. That hopefully is clarifying.

為了澄清一下，我剛才說的是以固定匯率計算，正如報告所說，我們的業績會持平。所以我想確認一下——您把匯率因素也考慮進去了，所以我特意提一下。我們確實會盡量把這些因素考慮進去。希望這樣解釋清楚了。

I think we could see growth, yes, for the year, but the environment is a difficult one for everybody, and we are trying to work through it. I think our Team has done an extraordinary job to be where they are.

我認為今年我們可能會看到成長，但目前的環境對每個人來說都很艱難，我們正在努力克服困難。我認為我們的團隊能取得現在的成績，已經做得非常好了。

But just on the acquired deferred, I think you had been adding it back to the numbers you had been quoting since acquisition, and now that you are lapping it, it sounds like you're giving us a reported number, so just if you could help me with that differential?

但是關於已收購的遞延款項，我認為您之前一直將其加回到收購以來您引用的數字中，而現在您又將其扣除，聽起來您給我們的是一個報告數字，所以您能否幫我解決一下這個差額？

Sure, your point is valid. We are in the point where we can be a little bit above. We can be a little bit above. The difference between the two is not all that material. It's a few million dollars that we are talking about.

沒錯，你的觀點很有道理。我們現在的情況是，我們可以略微超出預期。我們可以再超出一點。兩者之間的差距並不算大，我們談論的不過是數百萬美元而已。

And then just finally, on the healthcare divestiture, I think it's pretty easy to calculate the EBITDA multiple that it transacted at externally, but can you give us what the LTM free cash flow multiple of the transaction was if you have it handy, just so we can do it apples for apples with how you were talking about the Wood Mack acquisition purchase price?

最後，關於醫療保健業務剝離，我認為從外部計算其交易的 EBITDA 倍數很容易，但如果您手頭有的話，能否告訴我們該交易的 LTM 自由現金流倍數是多少，以便我們能夠與您之前提到的 Wood Mack 收購價格進行公平的比較？

We'll have to follow up so we can get you to the accurate numbers there. I'm sorry I don't have those in front of me. That was a little while ago.

我們需要跟進一下才能提供準確的數字。抱歉，我手邊沒有這些數據。那是之前的事了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Manav Patnaik from Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的馬納夫·帕特奈克。

Good morning. I wanted to ask a little bit around the capital allocation you talked about. But firstly, Scott, you mentioned an active tuck-in M&A pipeline, and I'm trying to understand or just get a little more color on where you are seeing these? My initial impression was it will be more of the PCIs and the Infield, but I don't know if should I be reading into the Ireland insurance acquisition you made that there's a lot more in some of the other verticals as well?

早安.我想問一下您剛才提到的資本配置問題。首先，Scott，您提到公司正在積極推動一些補充性併購項目，我想了解這些項目具體集中在哪些領域？我最初的印像是，這些項目會更集中在PCI和Infield領域，但我不知道您收購愛爾蘭保險公司是否意味著您在其他一些垂直領域也有很多收購計劃？

The M&A agenda spans all of the verticals and I would say is very active across all of them. And actually, the place were incrementally we have put in the most energy to raise our game on the M&A front actually has been in the insurance vertical, and I would say especially nondomestic. We are very much meaning in on that agenda and quite active, actually, on that front.

併購議程涵蓋所有垂直領域，可以說在所有領域都非常活躍。事實上，我們逐步提升併購能力的重點領域是保險業，尤其是海外保險市場。我們非常重視並積極參與這項議程。

Okay, fair enough. And then just a follow-up in terms of the outlook for Argus, I think at the beginning of the year, you had said you expect double-digit growth. I just wanted to confirm if that's correct and if that's a reported number and not backing out the one-time stuff that you had last year?

好的，沒問題。關於Argus的前景，我還有一個後續問題。我記得年初的時候您說過預計會有兩位數的成長。我想確認一下這個數字是否正確，以及這個數字是否是官方公佈的，沒有扣除去年的一些一次性項目？

That is correct, and that is not backing out the one-time stuff.

沒錯，而且這還不包括一次性的事情。

Thanks a lot, guys.

非常感謝各位。

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Steinerman from JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的安德魯·斯坦納曼。

Good morning.

早安.

Scott, I think you were indicating last conference call that you thought within the insurance verticals that both RA and DA would accelerate this year. Do you still think that's the case?

史考特，我記得你在上次電話會議上提到過，你認為保險業的RA和DA今年都會加速成長。你現在仍然這麼認為嗎？

Yes, we feel good about insurance.

是的，我們對保險很有信心。

Could you talk a little bit more about RA? Because obviously, that would have to pick up throughout 2016 from first-quarter levels to accelerate for the first year.

能再詳細談談類風濕性關節炎（RA）嗎？因為很顯然，RA的發生率必須在2016年第一季的基礎上持續上升，才能在第一年加速成長。

RA is a rich mix of the industry standard programs and the new solutions that we brought to market recently, which would include our predictive models, our electronic rating content, and also innovations in the category of telematics. We're we are using our commercial property capability to spread out into verticals. All of those things are contributing to the performance of that segment.

RA 融合了行業標準項目和我們近期推向市場的新解決方案，包括我們的預測模型、電子評級內容以及遠端資訊處理領域的創新。我們正利用我們在商業房地產領域的實力，將業務拓展到各個垂直行業。所有這些因素都對該領域的表現做出了貢獻。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Your next question comes from Joseph Foresi from Cantor Fitzgerald.

你的下一個問題來自 Cantor Fitzgerald 公司的 Joseph Foresi。

I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about your expectations for growth for energy for next year? I know that it's fairly early, but it seems like we've gotten to a flat constant currency growth rate at this point, and so I'm wondering, how should we think about that in relation to the price of oil? And then I have one follow-up?

我想請您談談對明年能源產業成長的預期？我知道現在問這個問題還為時過早，但目前看來，以固定匯率計算，能源產業的成長率似乎已經趨於平穩。所以我想知道，我們該如何看待能源產業成長與油價之間的關係？另外，我還有一個後續問題。

Here is the view about Wood Mack. Wood Mack right now in our view is laying the foundation for its next round of growth. So what's going on right now? Customer retention is very high. The new product pipeline is robust. The utilization of our portal offerings is growing strongly, and we are also opening up new channels of distribution for our proprietary content.

以下是我們對伍德麥克公司的看法。我們認為，伍德麥克目前正處於為下一輪成長奠定基礎的階段。那麼，目前的情況如何呢？客戶留存率非常高。新產品線儲備充足。我們入口網站的使用率正在強勁增長，同時我們也為自有內容開闢新的發行管道。

The challenge at the moment is the extreme pressure on our customers who are almost two years into this down cycle, and they're still laying off some of their associates, and so they are seeking, even at this time, cost savings anywhere they can find them. But our view is, because our customers are leaning out their staffs, when the market returns to more normal conditions, demand for Wood Mack tools and solutions will escalate strongly, and that's why we are staying the course and we're remaining invested in the present and the future at Wood Mack.

目前面臨的挑戰是，我們的客戶承受著巨大的壓力。他們已經經歷了近兩年的經濟低迷期，仍在裁員，因此即使在此時，他們也在盡其所能地節省成本。但我們認為，正因為客戶在精簡人員，當市場恢復正常時，對伍德麥克工具和解決方案的需求將會強勁成長。正因如此，我們才會堅持既定方針，繼續投資於伍德麥克的現在與未來。

Having said all of that, the one thing that we will never do is make pinpoint predictions of the commodity. We certainly expect more normalized conditions into the future, and we'll see when those occur, and we're hopeful about that because it will be good for our customers. But we've said from the beginning, and we still maintain, that in normalized market conditions, we expect Wood Mackenzie and the pieces that we've added to Wood Mackenzie to grow at or above the rate of organic growth of the rest of Verisk.

儘管如此，有一件事我們永遠不會做，那就是對大宗商品價格做出精準預測。我們當然預期未來市場狀況會更加正常化，我們會密切注意何時恢復正常，對此我們充滿希望，因為這對我們的客戶有利。但我們從一開始就說過，而且現在仍然堅持，在市場狀況正常化的情況下，我們預計伍德麥肯錫以及我們收購的伍德麥肯錫的業務部門的增長速度將達到或超過維瑞斯克其他業務部門的自然增長率。

Got it. And then just as a follow up, on the margin side, what's your biggest opportunity to move margins up as you look across the businesses? I'm wondering if you could just maybe rank the top three and where you think that there's the largest opportunity to move margins higher, and any commentary you can give on pricing. I figured I'd sneak that in.

明白了。那麼，關於利潤率方面，您認為在所有業務中，提升利潤率的最大機會是什麼？我想請您列出三個最重要的機會，並說明您認為哪些機會最有可能提升利潤率，以及您對定價方面有什麼看法。我想順便提一下這個問題。

It's not three factors; it's one. And that is, it's the fundamental nature of our Business. The way we do business is fundamentally scalable. So as long as we have a healthy business which is growing, and as long as we pay attention to tightly operating our business, that is where the margin opportunity lies.

這不是三個因素，而是一個。那就是我們業務的根本性質。我們的業務模式本質上是可擴展的。所以，只要我們的業務健康成長，只要我們注重嚴格運營，利潤空間就蘊藏其中。

We've made some structural changes to the Company where, for example, just systemically, our tax rate is lower. But otherwise, it's basic to the way we do business. There's no one long lever.

我們對公司進行了一些結構性調整，例如，從系統層面來說，我們的稅率降低了。但除此之外，這與我們基本的經營方式息息相關。沒有一勞永逸的辦法。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question comes from David Togut of Evercore.

你的下一個問題來自 Evercore 公司的 David Togut。

Thank you. Good morning. Scott, earlier you mentioned your interest in doing international acquisitions, particularly in the insurance vertical.

謝謝。早安.史考特，你之前提到你對國際併購感興趣，尤其是在保險領域。

Right.

正確的。

Can you talk a little bit about the platform that Wood Mack gives you internationally as you expand your presence in other verticals outside of the US? I'm thinking in terms of resources, operating leverage.

您能否談談伍德麥克在拓展美國以外其他垂直領域業務時，為您提供的國際平台？我指的是資源和營運槓桿方面。

Right, all that. I had the opportunity the latter half of last year to visit many of our Wood Mack offices around the world. It really caught my attention when I was in Beijing.

沒錯，就是這樣。去年下半年我有機會走訪了伍德麥克在全球各地的許多辦事處。我在北京的時候，尤其對此印象深刻。

In Beijing, we have about 30 to 40 Wood Mack people, and at the moment, we have four or five people for our AIR unit, which is our catastrophe modeling unit in the insurance business. We brought them all together in order to talk about the Company and just your typical town hall meeting and to talk about the future. You would have thought that these were long-lost relatives who had just found one another after decades. The pleasure of being able to pull together in a single market, share ideas and share just even infrastructure. So all those folks previously had not been co-located; now they are co-located.

在北京，我們伍德麥克公司大約有三、四十名員工，目前我們保險業務的災害建模部門（AIR）有四、五個人。我們把他們召集起來，討論公司狀況，開個典型的全體員工大會，展望未來。大家聚在一起，就像失散多年的親人重逢。能夠在同一個市場裡齊心協力，分享想法，甚至共享基礎設施，真是令人欣喜。之前這些人分散各地，現在他們終於聚在一起了。

In an intellectual property business like ours, it's just absolutely golden when you can get people ideating with one another, and we were very interested in the intersection of energy and insurance, and it is something that increasingly is going to be very important for us. So just at a very basic level, the ability to pull together intelligent people, have them sharing what it is they are doing and finding the mutual opportunities is so big.

在我們這樣的智慧財產權產業，能夠讓大家互相啟發、碰撞出新的想法，簡直是無比寶貴的財富。我們對能源和保險的交叉領域非常感興趣，而且這對我們來說也越來越重要。所以，從最基本的層面來說，能夠把聰明的人聚集在一起，讓他們分享各自的工作，並找到共同的機遇，這本身就意義非凡。

We've commented many times in this calls that the right way to think about a global Verisk is as a multi-domestic Verisk. In other words, in many of the markets we serve, and I'll use insurance is an example, a Chinese primary carrier is not really all that interested in what happened in the United States last quarter in terms of premiums and indemnity losses. They just aren't. It is not that relative for them. So we have to be more Chinese in China. But the fact that we are already legitimate in China actually means quite a bit, and it's just very supportive.

我們在先前的電話會議中多次提到，看待全球 Verisk 的正確方式是將其視為一個多國本土化的 Verisk。換句話說，在我們服務的許多市場（以保險業為例），中國的保險公司對上個季度美國保費和賠償損失的情況並不太在意。他們就是不關心。對他們來說，這些情況並不那麼重要。所以，在中國，我們必須更「中國化」。但事實上，我們已經在中國獲得了合法地位，這本身就意義重大，也給了我們很大的支持。

Also, as we try to source new talent, the fact we are a reputable, credible player in all of these markets is a major factor. And we are experiencing that right now as we try to add new highly-talented, local-market-appropriate associates in a number of places around the globe. So maybe it's a little bit difficult to spot from a distance. It's a very powerful effect, actually, inside the Company.

此外，在我們努力尋找新人才的過程中，我們在所有這些市場中都享有良好的聲譽和信譽，這是一個重要因素。目前，我們正在全球多個地區招募高素質、符合當地市場需求的員工，這也反映了這一點。所以，從外部可能不太容易察覺到這一點。實際上，這在公司內部的影響非常顯著。

Mark, I think you wanted to --?

馬克，我覺得你想──？

I was is going to add to it, just to give you a little color from -- a little vignette. In the world of China, just to tag along on that comment, we think we can do some things around buildings to help understand the risk associated with those buildings and what it would cost to underwrite, and there were some reinsurance brokers that were interested in the tool that we were developing for China. I'm not sure we would have had a way to put that on the ground and to actually respond to that without that offices we have there, and it made for -- beyond the incorporation, we went to -- we had people there with cards there were Verisk. So just a case in point.

我本來想補充一點，給大家舉個例子，讓大家更直覺地了解一下。就中國市場而言，我們認為可以圍繞建築物做一些工作，幫助大家了解建築物的風險以及承保成本。當時有一些再保險經紀人對我們正在為中國開發的工具很感興趣。如果沒有我們在中國設立的辦事處，我不確定我們是否能夠將這個工具落地並真正滿足他們的需求。除了公司註冊之外，我們還派人去拜訪了Verisk，他們持有Verisk的名片。這只是一個例子。

Thank you. Greatly appreciate your perspective. A quick housekeeping question for you Mark. What was the March quarter EBITDA that the healthcare business generated?

謝謝。非常感謝您的見解。馬克，我還有一個小問題想請教您。醫療保健業務三月季度的 EBITDA 是多少？

It is in the discontinued ops area. You can see it, and I believe it was about 21%-ish. I think that was around there. It did include some transactional related costs.

它位於已終止營運專案區域。您可以看到，我記得大概佔21%左右。我記得差不多是這個數。其中包含一些交易相關費用。

Understood. Thank you very much.

明白了。非常感謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Your next question comes from James Friedman from Susquehanna. Your line is open.

下一個問題來自薩斯奎哈納大學的詹姆斯‧弗里德曼。您的提問通道已開放。

Thanks. It's Jamie at Susquehanna.

謝謝。我是薩斯奎哈納的傑米。

Scott, in your opening remarks, you were talking about the Verisk distinctives, and that was helpful. One of them that you had called out was the increase in subscription revenue as a percentage of the total pro forma for healthcare. I was hoping you could elaborate on that a little bit.

史考特，你在開場白中談到了Verisk的獨特之處，這很有幫助。你特別提到了訂閱收入佔醫療保健總預算的比例有所增長。我希望你能詳細解釋一下這一點。

Meaning why we care about that, or just where the number -- are you asking where the number goes to?

意思是，我們為什麼要關心這個數字，或只是想知道這個數字的去向？你是在問這個數字最後會去哪裡嗎？

I didn't want to get too -- if it is too specific quantitatively, that's fine, but directionally, is that as significant?

我不想說得太具體──如果數量上太具體，那也沒關係，但方向性上，這同樣重要嗎？

Yes, so let's -- I think Mark is looking up the number right now. I'm not sure if you've got it there, Mark. But it's just part and parcel of what we do.

是的，我們——我想馬克現在正在查號碼。馬克，我不確定你那裡有沒有。但這只是我們工作的一部分。

The fact of the subscription revenue really goes to the nature of the relationship with our customers, which is deep and embedded, and it's when you're in that mode that you can move to subscription forms. And just the recurrence and the visibility associated with the subscriptions is something that's very supportive of cash flow and operations and forecasting.

訂閱收入的真正意義在於它反映了我們與客戶之間深厚而穩固的關係，而正是在這種關係模式下，我們才能轉向訂閱模式。訂閱帶來的持續性和可見性，對現金流、營運和預測都大有裨益。

We do care about it, and it's one of the reasons why we feel good about the way our mix is rebalanced here now as we move towards the sale of a healthcare business. Mark, I don't know if you wanted to comment specifically on the numbers.

我們確實很重視這一點，這也是我們對目前業務組合重新平衡感到滿意的原因之一，因為我們正在推進醫療保健業務的出售。馬克，我不知道你是否想就具體數字發表意見。

I think it was 82%.

我認為是 82%。

82%. Thanks.

82%。謝謝。

Mark, just to clarify that, what's the -- are you saying the healthcare was -- oh, 82% of the revenue pro forma for the healthcare sale is now subscription?

馬克，為了澄清一下，你是說醫療保健業務——哦，醫療保健業務出售後，82%的收入現在來自訂閱服務嗎？

Correct.

正確的。

Okay. That's really helpful.

好的，這真的很有幫助。

I hope that the answer -- the response to your question.

我希望答案——也就是對您問題的回答——能夠解答您的問題。

Yes, that's what I was getting. I wasn't sure if you've have that, so I thought it might be too specific.

是的，我就是這個意思。我不確定你有沒有遇過這種情況，所以我覺得可能描述得太具體了。

We'll take 82%-ish.

我們接受82%左右的機率。

It's around there, yes.

就在附近，沒錯。

And then I think also, Scott, you had suggested that it decreases seasonality. Could you remind us what the seasonal patterns were for healthcare with the sweeps and all that?

史考特，我想你之前也提到它能降低季節性。可以提醒我們一下醫療保健產業的季節性波動，像是疫情調查之類的嗎？

Healthcare was 40% first half of the year and 60% second half of the year.

醫療保健產業上半年佔 40%，下半年佔 60%。

All right. You've got all the answers. That's very helpful. I appreciate it. Thank you.

好的，你已經解答了所有問題，這很有幫助，非常感謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Your next question comes from Toni Kaplan from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的東尼卡普蘭。

Thank you. Good morning.

謝謝。早安.

How should we think about growth in the specialized segment non-Wood Mack? It seems like that has been jumping around a little bit.

我們該如何看待伍德馬克以外的專業細分市場的成長？似乎這方面的數據波動比較大。

There was a little perturbation there in the first quarter. I think you're going to find that settles out as we go forward.

第一節比賽確實出現了一些小波動。但我認為隨著比賽的進行，這種情況會逐漸穩定下來。

And then I just wanted to ask one additional question on your plans for further international expansion in the insurance business. Which geographies would make the most sense, just given the structure of their insurance systems? Thanks.

最後，我還想問一個關於您未來保險業務國際擴張計劃的問題。考慮到各國保險體系的結構，哪些地區是最適合的選擇？謝謝。

Yes. That's a really good question, and that's one that we think about quite a bit actually. You should think of us as a portfolio. So the logical place for us to drill down would generally be established economies that tend not to be overly concentrated in terms of market shares of leading players.

是的，這確實是個好問題，我們也一直在思考這個問題。您可以把我們當作一個投資組合。因此，對我們來說，深入投資的合乎邏輯的目標通常是那些市場集中度不高的成熟經濟體，而這些經濟體的龍頭企業市場份額往往不會過高。

For example, on balance -- and also, you have to concede that language issues are here little bit also. UK is a little bit better for us than, say, Germany. We can pick our spots that way. Japan is a highly developed economy that also doesn't have an overly concentrated insurance market, so that would be another.

例如，總的來說——當然，你也必須承認語言問題在這裡也起到了一定的作用——英國對我們來說比德國之類的國家要好一些。這樣我們就可以更有選擇性地投資。日本是一個高度發展的經濟體，保險市場集中度也不高，所以這也是一個不錯的選擇。

That's your first sort, but the other part of it is, we are interested in emerging situations, as well. And two I would call out there, you have to consider China still to be an emerging situation, so that's one that we look at. But it's also interesting that when you look at the sum of Southeast Asia, it turns that Singapore is becoming something of a hub. And so we're going to have both flavors inside of our portfolio. More of the energy will go into established economies, but we're going to feature both kinds in what we do.

這是第一類，但另一方面，我們也對新興市場感興趣。我想特別指出兩點，中國目前仍被視為新興市場，因此我們會關注它。但有趣的是，縱觀整個東南亞地區，新加坡正崛起成為一個樞紐。所以，我們的投資組合將兼顧這兩種類型。我們會將更多資金投入成熟經濟體，但也會兼顧這兩種類型。

Thank you.

謝謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Your next question comes from the line of Anjaneya Singh from Credit Suisse.

你的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的安賈內亞辛格。

Hi, thanks for taking my questions.

您好，感謝您回答我的問題。

I apologize if I missed this, but could you help us bridge what's changed or wasn't anticipated in your outlook for Wood Mack in 2016 versus last quarter? It seems you're now looking for flattish growth versus some growth last quarter. And perhaps if you could give us some color on how your conversations with clients are faring in light of some recovery in the price of oil?

如果我錯過了您的訊息，請您見諒。能否請您解釋一下，與上一季相比，您對伍德麥克公司2016年的業績展望有哪些變化或出乎意料之處？您現在似乎預計成長將持平，而上一季則有所成長。另外，鑑於油價有所回升，您與客戶的溝通狀況如何？能否也請您談談？

Thanks.

謝謝。

These are small adjustments in our view, I would say, and it's really just a product of the environment and the rate at which it does or doesn't change. Conversations with customers are overall very encouraging. I had the chance, I don't know, month, month and half ago to sit with the Deputy CEO of one of the world's largest energy companies. And the stories they tell about how they make use of Wood Mack content and their focus upon Wood Mack as a partner, these are very encouraging kinds of stories.

在我們看來，這些只是微小的調整，其實只是環境及其變化速度的產物。與客戶的溝通大致上非常令人鼓舞。大約一個月前，我有機會與一家全球最大能源公司的副執行長會面。他們講述瞭如何利用伍德麥克的內容，以及他們如何將伍德麥克視為合作夥伴，這些故事都非常鼓舞人心。

And then we just look into the data in terms of, for example, the number of users of our portal offering and the rate at which they are making use of our content, all of which are going up pretty strongly. But it's also the case that even now, well into the nosedive in the pricing of the commodity, there are still reactions in terms of our customers trying to get their own cost structures right. And in the same way that there was a little bit of a lagging effect in terms of the commodity price coming down and then the reaction of the energy companies. You have to expect that there will be some of that also on the way back up.

然後我們分析數據，例如我們入口網站的用戶數量以及他們使用我們內容的頻率，這些指標都在強勁增長。但即便在大宗商品價格暴跌的當下，我們的客戶仍在努力調整自身的成本結構。就像大宗商品價格下跌後能源公司的反應存在一定的滯後效應一樣，我們也應該預料到，在價格回升的過程中，類似的滯後效應也會存在。

There will be some timing effects inside of -- I would not expect instantaneous reaction of our customers to what the price of the commodity is doing, because the price of the commodity has to work its way into not only their forward plans, but also the way that they are actually spending their own CapEx dollars, and there just will be time dependencies inside of that.

內部會存在一些時間效應——我不認為我們的客戶會對商品價格的走勢立即做出反應，因為商品價格不僅要納入他們的未來計劃，還要納入他們實際花費資本支出的方式，而這其中必然存在時間依賴性。

Okay, appreciate it.

好的，謝謝。

And as a follow-up, as it relates to the DA insurance business, it looks like cat bond issuance reached a new quarter record after not a very exciting year 2015. Could you talk about the tailwind that provided in the quarter and what you would expect if these trends continue for the year?

另外，就DA保險業務而言，在經歷了並不十分亮眼的2015年之後，巨災債券發行量似乎創下了新的季度紀錄。您能否談談本季這一利多因素，以及如果這些趨勢持續到年底，您對此有何預期？

So just first a comment.

首先我想說一句。

Cat bonds are an interesting category, and it's one that we participate in, and it definitely is there in the mix of risk transfer mechanisms that out there in the world. But I would encourage all to not overstate the amount of risk that gets managed through that mechanism. It's interesting to look at it because you can carve it out and identify it.

巨災債券是一個很有趣的類別，我們也有參與，它無疑是全球風險轉移機制中的一員。但我建議大家不要過度誇大透過這種機制管理的風險。研究它很有意思，因為你可以把它單獨拿出來分析和識別。

You are right, it was a good moment for cat bonds, and our AIR business did very well. The share of the identified cat bonds our Team analyzed was very high. And as I think everybody knows, we almost always have the vast majority of that market anyway. So yes, it was helpful.

您說得對，那段時間巨災債券市場行情不錯，我們的AIR業務也表現出色。我們團隊分析的已識別巨災債券份額非常高。而且我想大家都知道，我們幾乎一直佔據著這個市場的絕大部分。所以，是的，那段時間確實很有幫助。

But there's movement also in the cat bond world. Don't miss that. There's the move towards the so-called mini cat bonds, and there are different ways that you can actually analyze cat bonds. It's a dynamic environment; I will put it that way. But yes, we feel good about how we did with the most recent issuances.

但巨災債券領域也在發生變化，千萬不要錯過。目前出現了所謂的迷你巨災債券，分析巨災債券的方法也多種多樣。總而言之，這是一個充滿活力的市場。不過，我們對最近幾期債券的發行感到滿意。

Okay, great. Appreciate the thoughts. Thank you so much.

好的，太好了。感謝你的建議。非常感謝。

Your next question comes from Arash Soleimani from KBW.

你的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Arash Soleimani。

Thanks, and good morning. In terms of -- can you break out the revenues for Infield and PCI?

謝謝，早安。關於收入方面－您能否分別列出Infield和PCI的收入數據？

They are pretty modest in the scheme here. I don't think we've provided that detail in the past. They're not substantial. They are more tuck-in in nature.

它們在這個方案中佔比相當小。我想我們過去並沒有提供過這方面的資訊。它們並不重要，更像是錦上添花。

Okay. That's fair.

好的，這很合理。

And then with Wood Mack, is it fair to think there that the organic should do a little bit better in the second half of the year given that the discretionary consulting revenues were pressured in the second half of 2015? Does that comp get easier in the second half of 2016?

那麼就伍德麥克公司而言，考慮到2015年下半年諮詢業務收入承壓，是否可以合理地認為該公司2016年下半年的有機成長會略好一些？ 2016年下半年的業績比較會比較容易？

The answer is, as reported, it probably could get a little bit better. It really is, again, to the consulting side of things, it's a bit of a swing factor in this, so we continue to try to remain conservative, although performing well and the underlying usage is up and strong.

正如報道所說，情況可能還會略有改善。的確，就諮詢業務而言，這確實是一個影響因素，因此我們仍然努力保持保守，儘管目前業績良好，基礎使用量也在上升且強勁。

Thank you for the answers.

謝謝您的解答。

Your next question comes from Andrew Jeffrey from SunTrust.

下一個問題來自 SunTrust 銀行的 Andrew Jeffrey。

Good morning, all. Very strong job, as usual.

各位早安。一如既往，做得非常出色。

My question is actually around Argus. I'm wondering, when you think about the growth in Argus, how much is coming from the core products versus the media (inaudible) marketing effectiveness piece of the business? And where do you think the relative growth rates of those two [swedes] are?

我的問題其實是關於Argus的。我想知道，在考慮Argus的成長時，核心產品和媒體行銷成效提升業務（聽不清楚）各佔多少？您認為這兩家公司（瑞典公司）的相對成長率是多少？

The contributions to Argus' growth are very broadly based across not only the traditional consortium model analytic view, but also the specific analytic products that are being provided to customers, to the white labeling of our analytic environment, to the opening up of new markets like media effectiveness, to the opening up of new markets geographically. All of those cylinders are hitting.

Argus的成長得益於許多方面的貢獻，不僅體現在傳統的聯盟模式分析視角，也體現在為客戶提供的具體分析產品、分析環境的白標客製化、媒體效果等新市場的開拓以及地域性新市場的拓展。所有這些方面都在協同運作。

So there is no one call-out per se?

所以並沒有一個明確的呼籲？

No. One of the reasons why Argus is such a wonderful business and has such a bright future is that it has many different ways to grow.

不。 Argus之所以如此出色，擁有如此光明的前景，其中一個原因就是它有很多不同的發展途徑。

Thank you.

謝謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Your next question comes from Sara Gubins from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的薩拉古賓斯。

Thanks, good morning.

謝謝，早安。

Looking at the margin compression in business and analytics in the first quarter, it sounds like organic margins may have been up year over year, and so I'm wondering, first, if I'm reading that correctly, and second, if then the margin compression would be attributed perhaps to Wood Mack and investments that you are making there?

從第一季業務和分析領域的利潤率壓縮情況來看，有機利潤率似乎可能同比增長了，所以我想知道，首先，我的理解是否正確；其次，利潤率壓縮是否可能歸因於伍德麥克公司以及你們在那裡進行的投資？

This is Mark. I think your observations are correct.

我是馬克。我認為你的觀察是正確的。

Let me just remind you of two facts. First of all, Wood Mack has very good margins; however, they have a tough comp in the rest of Verisk, so you are seeing that come into the quarter that does work against us in Decision Analytics.

我只想提醒您兩點。首先，伍德麥克的利潤率非常高；然而，維瑞斯克其他業務的業績比較基數很高，因此，本季度我們在決策分析方面的業績受到不利影響。

The other thing you need to look at is, in the first quarter of 2015, we keep talking about that project revenue from Argus, and we also highlighted back a year ago, there were extremely high margins on that project revenue. And as a result, that creates an artificially high margin in 2015 in that first quarter. So those are the two things that I think if you normalized out, you would see probably a pretty good story inside of organic DA margins.

另一點要注意的是，在2015年第一季度，我們一直在討論Argus的專案收入，而且我們在一年前也強調過，該專案收入的利潤率非常高。因此，這導致2015年第一季的利潤率被人為抬高。所以，我認為如果將這兩點因素剔除，你就能看到DA有機利潤率相當不錯的表現。

As we think about margins in that segment for the rest of the year, it doesn't sound like we should necessary expect to see significant compression.

當我們考慮該業務板塊今年剩餘時間的利潤率時，似乎不應該預期會大幅下降。

I'll highlight the things I made before. We do have all of our salary increases that take effect in April, and we also give out our equity awards April 1 as well, and those will replace equity awards from four years ago. So those are some additional cost that are layered into the underlying structure from second quarter on. But all else being equal, I agree with you.

我會重點說明我之前提到的幾點。我們所有的薪資成長都將在四月生效，股權獎勵也將在4月1日發放，這些獎勵將取代四年前的股權獎勵。因此，從第二季開始，這些都會增加一些成本，並計入公司的基本架構中。但除此之外，我同意你的觀點。

Great. And then sorry to bring this up again, but I just want to make sure that I understand your comments about Wood Mack expectations. There are number of moving pieces between purchase accounting and FX, as well as the timing of when Wood Mack came in.

好的。不好意思再次提起這件事，但我只是想確認一下我對您關於伍德麥克公司預期方面的理解是否正確。收購會計和外匯交易之間有許多變數，伍德麥克公司進駐的時間點也需要考慮。

On an underlying basis, excluding currency and excluding purchase accounting, is your expectation for 2016 trends lower than or worse than you had previously thought given the overall environment? Or is your commentary about seeing it flat on a reported bases more a function of the purchase accounting mechanics?

剔除匯率和採購會計因素後，從根本上看，鑑於整體環境，您對2016年趨勢的預期是低於還是低於您先前的預期？或者，您認為報告數據將持平的觀點，更多是受到採購會計機制的影響？

I think what we tried to describe is that we remain very optimistic on the business, but we do believe that there are probably some market economics that are just difficult for our customers and us right now. So in both cases, we think that's going to be down slightly. But still has the opportunity to grow on a reported basis; so I'm trying to give at least get a little bit more color to everyone.

我想我們想表達的是，我們對業務前景依然非常​​樂觀，但我們也認為，目前市場經濟狀況對我們的客戶和我們本身都存在一些困難。因此，我們認為業績會略有下滑，但仍有機會實現成長；所以我希望至少能讓大家對情況有更清晰的了解。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Silber from BMO.

你的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Jeff Silber。

Henry Chien calling for Jeff.

Henry Chien 呼叫 Jeff。

Just a follow-up question on the DA insurance piece. I was wondering if you could share any color on the pricing environment for your services. Just trying to better understand some of that, the acceleration and the growth there. Thanks.

關於DA保險方面，我還有一個後續問題。我想了解一下貴公司服務的定價狀況。我只是想更好地了解這方面的信息，包括其增長速度和規模。謝謝。

I would describe the environment as relatively unchanged relative to last year, and actually over many years. One of the hallmarks of the insurance industry is its stability. The regulatory environment has not really changed that much. Industry structure has not really changed all that much.

我認為，與去年相比，乃至多年來，保險業環境基本上保持不變。保險業的一大特點就是其穩定性。監管環境和產業結構都沒有太大變化。

There have been a couple of larger mergers, but industry concentration still remains pretty much the same. The way that we price our products has not changed. Probably, our pricing actually gets even a little bit tighter as we continue to grow the subscription-based part of the mix. So there's really not a lot of change, really, in terms of what the environment yields.

雖然發生過幾起規模較大的併購案，但產業集中度基本上保持不變。我們的產品定價策略也沒有改變。隨著訂閱模式的不斷成長，我們的定價策略可能還會更加緊湊一些。因此，就市場環境而言，實際上並沒有太大的變化。

Okay, got it. Thanks for the color.

好的，明白了。謝謝你提供的顏色資訊。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

Your next question comes from Hamzah Mazari from Sterne Agee.

你的下一個問題來自 Sterne Agee 公司的 Hamzah Mazari。

This is [Kavon Robarns] filling in for Hamzah. Could you give us a little update on the Verisk Telematics data exchange and how many OEMs are currently signed up and how large that initiative could be?

這裡是卡文·羅巴恩斯（Kavon Robarns），代替哈姆扎（Hamzah）發言。您能否簡單介紹一下Verisk車載資訊服務的資料交換項目，目前有多少家OEM廠商簽約參與，以及該項目最終規模有多大？

Yes. So you've actually got a couple of questions there.

是的。所以你其實還有幾個問題。

The current status is, we are actually in the rollout phase with our first OEM, who we announced some time ago. We'll be providing product to the insurance industry right around the crossover from third quarter to fourth quarter. That will be the first fruits commercially of what we've been doing.

目前，我們正與第一家OEM廠商（我們之前已經宣布過）進行產品推廣。我們將在第三季末到第四季末的過渡階段向保險業提供產品。這將是我們努力的首個商業成果。

We're very pleased with the discussions we're having with the insurers in terms of their interest in the data and the analytics. And we are actively cultivating other OEMs, and I think we feel very good about the prospect of this really being the industry standard. But every OEM is going to think about it in their own light and draw their own conclusions, but we are actively calling on all the name brand OEMs in the United States.

我們很高興與保險公司就數據和分析方面展開討論，他們表現出了濃厚的興趣。我們也積極拓展與其他原始設備製造商 (OEM) 的合作，並且對這項技術成為業界標準的前景充滿信心。當然，每家 OEM 都會根據自身情況進行考慮並得出自己的結論，但我們正在積極聯繫美國所有知名品牌 OEM。

So yes, we feel very good about it. And the technical work has proceeded very nicely, and we are just all primed. We're ready to go.

是的，我們對此感覺非常好。技術工作進展順利，我們已經做好了一切準備。我們隨時可以開工。

All right, appreciate it. Thank you.

好的，謝謝。

There are no further questions in the queue.

隊列中已無其他問題。

Okay. Well, thanks everybody for joining us. We're happy to talk about a quarter that we feel very good about and look forward to being with you again roughly 90 days from now.

好的。感謝各位的參與。我們很高興和大家分享我們對本季業績非常滿意的消息，並期待大約90天後再次與大家見面。

And we'll be seeing some of you between now and then who are coming to visit us here in the office. We look forward to having you. Thanks very much for your time today.

從現在到那時，我們會見到一些來我們辦公室參觀的朋友。我們期待著你們的到來。非常感謝您今天抽出時間。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您可以掛斷電話了。