使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Verint Third Quarter Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.
美好的一天,謝謝你的支持。歡迎參加 Verint 第三季度電話會議。 (操作員說明)請注意,今天的會議正在錄製中。
I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Matthew Frankel. Please go ahead.
我現在想把會議交給今天的演講者 Matthew Frankel。請繼續。
Matthew H. Frankel - Director of IR & Corporate Development
Matthew H. Frankel - Director of IR & Corporate Development
Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining our conference call today. I'm here with Dan Bodner, Verint CEO; Doug Robinson, Verint CFO; and Alan Roden, Verint Chief Corporate Development Officer.
謝謝你,運營商。下午好,感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議。我和 Verint 首席執行官 Dan Bodner 一起來的; Verint 首席財務官 Doug Robinson; Verint 首席企業發展官 Alan Roden。
Before getting started, I'd like to mention that accompanying our call today is a slide presentation. If you'd like to view these slides in real-time during the call, please visit the IR section of our website at verint.com, click on the Investor Relations tab and click on the webcast link and select today's conference call. I'd also like to draw your attention to the fact that certain matters discussed on this call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and other provisions of the federal securities laws.
在開始之前,我想提一下,伴隨我們今天的電話會議進行的是幻燈片演示。如果您想在電話會議期間實時查看這些幻燈片,請訪問我們網站 verint.com 的 IR 部分,單擊“投資者關係”選項卡,然後單擊網絡廣播鏈接並選擇今天的電話會議。我還想提請您注意,本次電話會議上討論的某些事項可能包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》和聯邦證券法其他條款含義內的前瞻性陳述。
These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations that are not guarantees of future performance. Actual results could differ materially from those expressed in or implied by these forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements are made as of the date of the call, this call and except as required by law, Verint assumes no obligation to update or revise them. Investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements.
這些前瞻性陳述基於管理層當前的預期,並非對未來業績的保證。實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異。前瞻性陳述是在電話會議之日作出的,除非法律要求,否則 Verint 不承擔更新或修改它們的義務。提醒投資者不要過分依賴這些前瞻性陳述。
For a more detailed discussion how these and other risks and uncertainties could cause Verint's actual results to differ materially from those indicated in these forward-looking statements, please see our Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended Jan 31, 2022, our Form 10-Q for the quarter ended October 31, 2022, when filed and other filings we make with the SEC.
如需更詳細地討論這些及其他風險和不確定性如何導致 Verint 的實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述中所示的結果存在重大差異,請參閱我們截至 2022 年 1 月 31 日的財政年度的 10-K 表,我們的 10 表-Q 截至 2022 年 10 月 31 日的季度,當我們向美國證券交易委員會提交文件和其他文件時。
The financial measures discussed today include non-GAAP measures as we believe investors focus on those measures in comparing results between periods and among our peer companies. Please see today's slide presentation, our earnings release in the Investor Relations section of our website at verint. com for a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures to GAAP measures. Non-GAAP financial information should not be considered in isolation from, as a substitute for or superior to GAAP financial information, but is included because management believes it provides meaningful supplemental information regarding our operating results when assessing our business and is useful to investors for informational and comparative purposes. The non-GAAP financial measures the company uses have limitations and may differ from those used by other companies.
今天討論的財務指標包括非 GAAP 指標,因為我們認為投資者在比較期間和我們的同行公司之間的結果時會關注這些指標。請參閱今天的幻燈片演示,我們在 verint 網站投資者關係部分發布的收益報告。 com 以協調非 GAAP 財務措施與 GAAP 措施。不應將非 GAAP 財務信息孤立於、替代或優於 GAAP 財務信息,而是將其包括在內,因為管理層認為它在評估我們的業務時提供了有關我們經營業績的有意義的補充信息,並且對投資者提供信息有用和比較目的。公司使用的非 GAAP 財務指標有局限性,可能與其他公司使用的指標不同。
Now I'd like to turn the call over to Dan. Dan?
現在我想把電話轉給丹。擔?
Dan Bodner - CEO & Chairman of the Board
Dan Bodner - CEO & Chairman of the Board
Thank you, Matt. I'm pleased to report another quarter with continued strong Saas momentum across key metrics, driven by brands looking to close the engagement capacity gap. Verint Cloud's platform is differentiated, especially for organizations looking to elevate customer experience with the same resources and budget.
謝謝你,馬特。我很高興地報告另一個季度,在尋求縮小參與能力差距的品牌的推動下,關鍵指標的 SaaS 勢頭持續強勁。 Verint Cloud 的平台與眾不同,特別是對於希望使用相同資源和預算提升客戶體驗的組織而言。
Ongoing changes in workforce dynamics make it more compelling for brands to deploy AI-driven solutions to increase their workforce effectiveness. Throughout this year, we have experienced strong SaaS growth with our cloud platform driving increased recurring revenue and sequential gross margin expansion. Today, we will review our Q3 and year-to-date financial results and provide an update on recent market trends. We will also discuss our guidance for this year and introduce our outlook for next year.
勞動力動態的持續變化使品牌更有吸引力部署人工智能驅動的解決方案以提高其勞動力效率。在今年全年,我們的雲平台推動了經常性收入的增加和毛利率的連續增長,我們經歷了強勁的 SaaS 增長。今天,我們將回顧我們的第三季度和年初至今的財務業績,並提供最新的市場趨勢。我們還將討論我們今年的指導方針,並介紹我們對明年的展望。
We expect continued SaaS revenue growth, perpetual revenue decline and gross margin expansion, driving strong earnings growth.
我們預計 SaaS 收入將持續增長、收入持續下降和毛利率擴張,從而推動強勁的盈利增長。
Let's take a closer look at our Q3 results. Starting with revenue. In Q3, we delivered revenue in line with our prior guidance. Our gross margins have increased throughout the year, tracking ahead of plan, and our non-GAAP diluted EPS came in significantly ahead of our guidance.
讓我們仔細看看我們第三季度的結果。從收入開始。在第三季度,我們的收入符合我們之前的指導。我們的毛利率全年都在增長,提前跟踪計劃,我們的非 GAAP 攤薄後每股收益大大超過我們的指導。
We are pleased with our overall results and especially with our SaaS growth metrics. Cloud revenue increased 35% in Q3, with the SaaS portion of cloud revenue growing over 40% on a constant currency basis versus last year. Cloud bookings also came in strong with new SaaS ACV bookings growing in Q3 over 50% year-over-year on a constant currency basis. As a reminder, in Q2, our new SaaS ACV had single-digit growth due to a tough compare, and we guided to strong Q3 growth, which we are pleased to have delivered.
我們對我們的整體結果感到滿意,尤其是我們的 SaaS 增長指標。第三季度雲收入增長了 35%,其中云收入的 SaaS 部分按固定匯率計算與去年相比增長了 40% 以上。雲預訂也表現強勁,第三季度新的 SaaS ACV 預訂按固定匯率計算同比增長超過 50%。提醒一下,在第二季度,由於艱難的比較,我們新的 SaaS ACV 實現了個位數增長,我們很高興地實現了強勁的第三季度增長。
Driving our strong new SaaS ACV growth where many customer expansions and new logos. In Q3, we received 31 cloud orders in excess of $1 million TCV as large enterprise customers continue shifting to the cloud. This is about a 50% increase compared to 21 orders in the same quarter last year and reflects the trend of large enterprises adopting cloud. These large cloud orders included some of the more recognizable organizations in the world, such as financial services provider, Discover; home goods retailer, IKEA; and health care provider, Cardinal Health. In addition, we continue to win many new customers and in Q3, we again added more than 100 new logos including the grocery company, Kroger; and food delivery company, Grubhub.
推動我們強大的新 SaaS ACV 增長,其中許多客戶擴展和新徽標。在第三季度,隨著大型企業客戶繼續轉向雲端,我們收到了 31 份超過 100 萬美元 TCV 的雲訂單。這比去年同期的 21 個訂單增加了約 50%,反映了大型企業採用雲的趨勢。這些大型雲訂單包括一些全球知名度較高的組織,例如金融服務提供商 Discover;家居用品零售商,宜家;和醫療保健提供者 Cardinal Health。此外,我們繼續贏得許多新客戶,在第三季度,我們再次添加了 100 多個新徽標,包括雜貨公司 Kroger;和送餐公司 Grubhub。
Let's take a closer look at 2 large 7- and 8-digit wins in Q3. The first order for $13 million was from a leading financial services company. This large customer decided to move to the cloud and selected Verint's cloud platform. We believe we won this large order due to our platform openness, Da Vinci AI differentiation and enterprise scalability.
讓我們仔細看看第三季度的 2 場 7 位數和 8 位數的大勝。第一個 1300 萬美元的訂單來自一家領先的金融服務公司。這個大客戶決定遷移到雲端並選擇了 Verint 的雲平台。我們相信,由於我們的平台開放性、達芬奇 AI 差異化和企業可擴展性,我們贏得了這筆大訂單。
And the second order for $7 million was from a leading company in the utility sector. This large organization, which serves several million customers across the U.S. is also moving to the cloud with Verint and adding new applications across the Verint Cloud platform. We believe the openness and breadth of the platform -- automation and differentiation and a strong ROI were key reasons we won this opportunity.
第二筆訂單價值 700 萬美元,來自公用事業領域的一家領先公司。這家為美國數百萬客戶提供服務的大型組織也正在通過 Verint 遷移到雲端,並在 Verint 雲平台上添加新的應用程序。我們相信平台的開放性和廣度——自動化和差異化以及強大的投資回報率是我們贏得這個機會的關鍵原因。
As discussed on prior calls, the Verint Cloud platform is differentiated across multiple vectors. First, the platform core includes our market-leading engagement data hub and Verint Da Vinci AI that underpins all the applications running on our platform. This data-centric approach empowers our customers with business insights and drives automation across the enterprise.
正如在之前的電話會議上所討論的,Verint 雲平台在多個向量中是有區別的。首先,平台核心包括我們市場領先的參與數據中心和支持我們平台上運行的所有應用程序的 Verint Da Vinci AI。這種以數據為中心的方法使我們的客戶能夠獲得業務洞察力,並推動整個企業的自動化。
Second, our platform offers many best-of-breed applications to help brands close the engagement capacity gap and generate quick ROI. The platform approach makes it easy for customers to start anywhere and adopt additional applications over time. And third, our platform is open and agnostic to a brand choice of telephony solution, CRM solution and data lakes, where it makes it easy for brands to deploy our platform into their existing ecosystem.
其次,我們的平台提供了許多同類最佳的應用程序,可幫助品牌縮小參與能力差距並產生快速的投資回報。平台方法使客戶可以輕鬆地從任何地方開始並隨著時間的推移採用其他應用程序。第三,我們的平台對電話解決方案、CRM 解決方案和數據湖的品牌選擇是開放的和不可知的,這使品牌可以輕鬆地將我們的平台部署到他們現有的生態系統中。
Next, I would like to discuss the SaaS revenue and SaaS bookings trends we have seen this year and our expectations for the remainder of fiscal '23. Our SaaS revenue has consistently increased over the last few years, And this year, we expect over 35% growth on a constant currency basis. Throughout this year, our SaaS revenue has increased every quarter, and we expect to finish this year strong with non-GAAP SaaS revenue approaching $130 million in Q4.
接下來,我想討論我們今年看到的 SaaS 收入和 SaaS 預訂趨勢,以及我們對 23 財年剩餘時間的預期。我們的 SaaS 收入在過去幾年中一直在增長,今年,我們預計在固定貨幣基礎上增長超過 35%。在今年全年,我們的 SaaS 收入每個季度都在增長,我們預計今年第四季度非 GAAP SaaS 收入將接近 1.3 億美元。
With respect to bookings, we expect strong new SaaS ACV growth in Q4 following our strong growth in Q3. Overall, the second half, we expect around 40% growth year-over-year, an acceleration over the 15% growth we saw in the first half on a constant currency basis. SaaS bookings accelerate in H2, we see the opposite trend in perpetual license bookings, which I will discuss next.
在預訂方面,我們預計繼第三季度的強勁增長之後,第四季度新的 SaaS ACV 將強勁增長。總體而言,下半年,我們預計同比增長 40% 左右,比上半年按固定匯率計算的 15% 增長有所加快。 SaaS 預訂在下半年加速,我們在永久許可預訂中看到相反的趨勢,我將在接下來討論。
In Q3, we saw a change in behavior from perpetual license customers. Our perpetual revenue in Q3 was significantly lower than in Q1 and Q2. We expect this trend to continue in Q4. Looking at the second half of the current year, we expect perpetual revenue to drop to $46 million, which is a faster decline than previously expected. For the full year, we now expect $110 million of perpetual revenue.
在第三季度,我們看到永久許可客戶的行為發生了變化。我們在第三季度的永久收入明顯低於第一季度和第二季度。我們預計這一趨勢將在第四季度繼續。展望今年下半年,我們預計永久收入將下降至 4600 萬美元,下降速度快於此前預期。對於全年,我們現在預計永久收入為 1.1 億美元。
As the market shifts away from perpetual to SaaS, our recurring revenue metrics continue to be strong. For the year, we expect non-GAAP recurring revenue to increase around 10% on a constant currency basis. For Q4, given the perpetual trends we just discussed, we expect close to 90% of our non-GAAP software revenue to come from recurring sources.
隨著市場從永久性轉向 SaaS,我們的經常性收入指標繼續保持強勁。今年,我們預計非 GAAP 經常性收入按固定匯率計算將增長 10% 左右。對於第四季度,鑑於我們剛剛討論的永久趨勢,我們預計我們近 90% 的非 GAAP 軟件收入將來自經常性來源。
As a greater portion of our revenue is recurring, visibility has improved, and we also benefit from gross margin expansion, as I will explain next. Throughout this year, we have experienced a sequential improvement in gross margins. Our recurring revenue generates much higher gross margins than our nonrecurring revenue and recurring revenue growth has been driving gross margin expansion. Overall, we expect around 100 points of expansion this year with a non-GAAP annual gross margin reaching 70% for the first time in our SaaS transition.
由於我們收入的很大一部分是經常性的,知名度有所提高,我們也受益於毛利率的擴張,正如我接下來將解釋的那樣。在今年全年,我們經歷了毛利率的連續改善。我們的經常性收入產生的毛利率遠高於我們的非經常性收入,而經常性收入的增長一直在推動毛利率的增長。總體而言,我們預計今年將實現約 100 個擴張點,非 GAAP 年度毛利率在我們的 SaaS 轉型中首次達到 70%。
Turning to guidance for the current year. In Q4, as SaaS revenue continues to grow, we expect perpetual revenue to decline faster than we previously expected and are adjusting our annual revenue outlook accordingly to 5% growth on a constant currency basis. Regarding EPS, we are maintaining our guidance for 10% diluted EPS year-over-year growth.
轉向本年度的指導。在第四季度,隨著 SaaS 收入的持續增長,我們預計永久收入的下降速度將快於我們之前的預期,並相應地將我們的年度收入預期調整為按固定匯率計算增長 5%。關於每股收益,我們維持 10% 稀釋後每股收益同比增長的指引。
Next year's guidance is driven by the trends and market environment we are seeing today. We expect another year of strong SaaS momentum with 30% SaaS revenue growth on a constant currency basis, while perpetual revenue declines to approximately $100 million. Overall, this drives our total revenue growth to 6% on a constant currency basis, up from 5% we now expect for this year. We expect another year of gross margin expansion as we continue our shift towards recurring revenue. And regarding EPS, we expect 8% year-over-year growth, resulting in diluted EPS of $2.70.
明年的指引是由我們今天看到的趨勢和市場環境驅動的。我們預計 SaaS 的勢頭又會是強勁的一年,按固定匯率計算,SaaS 收入將增長 30%,而永久收入將下降至約 1 億美元。總體而言,這推動我們的總收入在固定匯率基礎上增長至 6%,高於我們目前預計今年的 5%。隨著我們繼續轉向經常性收入,我們預計毛利率將再增長一年。關於每股收益,我們預計同比增長 8%,攤薄後每股收益為 2.70 美元。
Before handing the call over to Doug, let me conclude with our long-term targets and new buyback program. We believe that helping brands close the engagement capacity gap is a growth opportunity that will support strong SaaS revenue growth for many years. In addition, we believe our gross margins will continue to expand as we shift to SaaS, which will enable us to drive strong double-digit earnings growth long term.
在將電話轉交給道格之前,讓我總結一下我們的長期目標和新的回購計劃。我們相信,幫助品牌縮小參與能力差距是一個增長機會,將支持 SaaS 收入多年強勁增長。此外,我們相信,隨著我們轉向 SaaS,我們的毛利率將繼續擴大,這將使我們能夠長期推動強勁的兩位數盈利增長。
We are confident in our long-term prospects and are pleased to announce a new $200 million stock buyback program over the next 2 years.
我們對我們的長期前景充滿信心,並很高興地宣佈在未來 2 年內實施一項新的 2 億美元股票回購計劃。
And before I turn over the call to Doug, I would like to remind you of the previously announced CFO transition in Q4. This is the last earnings call that Doug joins as our CFO, and a great opportunity for me to thank Doug with tremendous contribution to Verint over the last 16 years and for the flawless execution of our complex spinoff almost 2 years ago.
在我將電話轉給 Doug 之前,我想提醒您之前宣布的第四季度 CFO 過渡。這是 Doug 作為我們的首席財務官參加的最後一次財報電話會議,也是我感謝 Doug 在過去 16 年中為 Verint 做出的巨大貢獻以及近 2 年前對我們複雜的分拆的完美執行的絕佳機會。
Now let me turn the call over to Doug.
現在讓我把電話轉給道格。
Douglas E. Robinson - CFO
Douglas E. Robinson - CFO
Thanks, Dan. Good afternoon, everyone. Our discussion today will include non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation between our GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures is available, as Matt mentioned, in our earnings release and in the IR section of our website.
謝謝,丹。大家下午好。我們今天的討論將包括非 GAAP 財務措施。正如馬特提到的,我們的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標之間的對賬可以在我們的收益發布和我們網站的 IR 部分中找到。
Differences between our GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures include adjustments related to acquisitions, including fair value revenue adjustments, amortization of acquisition-related intangibles, certain other acquisition-related expenses, stock-based compensation expenses, separation-related expenses, accelerated lease costs, IT facilities and infrastructure realignment as well as certain other items that can vary significantly in a mountain frequency from period to period. For certain metrics, it also includes adjustments related to foreign exchange rates.
我們的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務措施之間的差異包括與收購相關的調整,包括公允價值收入調整、與收購相關的無形資產攤銷、某些其他與收購相關的費用、基於股票的補償費用、與離職相關的費用、加速租賃成本、IT 設施和基礎設施調整以及某些其他項目,這些項目在不同時期的山區頻率可能會有很大差異。對於某些指標,它還包括與外匯匯率相關的調整。
Similar to last quarter, given the significant appreciation of the U.S. dollar this year, I'll be discussing certain results on a constant currency basis today to better understand our business performance. Revenue came in at $232 million on both a GAAP and non-GAAP basis, in line with our prior guidance, reflecting 2% year-over-year growth on a non-GAAP currency basis. Year-to-date non-GAAP revenue increased 6% on a constant currency basis. Recurring revenue came in at $175 million on both the GAAP and non-GAAP basis, reflecting 12% year-over-year growth on a non-GAAP constant currency basis. Year-to-date, non-GAAP recurring revenue increased 11% on a constant currency basis.
與上一季度類似,鑑於今年美元大幅升值,我今天將討論以固定匯率為基礎的某些結果,以更好地了解我們的業務績效。按 GAAP 和非 GAAP 計算,收入均達到 2.32 億美元,符合我們之前的指引,反映出按非 GAAP 貨幣計算同比增長 2%。按固定匯率計算,年初至今的非 GAAP 收入增長了 6%。按 GAAP 和非 GAAP 計算,經常性收入均為 1.75 億美元,按非 GAAP 固定匯率計算,同比增長 12%。年初至今,非 GAAP 經常性收入在固定匯率基礎上增長了 11%。
As Dan discussed earlier, as we shift to a more recurring revenue model, we are seeing an improvement in our gross margins. And our non-GAAP gross margin came in strong at 71.2% in Q3. Our strong gross margins enabled us to significantly over achieve on the bottom line and non-GAAP diluted EPS came in at $0.69.
正如丹之前所討論的那樣,隨著我們轉向更具經常性的收入模式,我們看到毛利率有所提高。我們的非美國通用會計準則毛利率在第三季度表現強勁,達到 71.2%。我們強勁的毛利率使我們能夠大大超額實現底線,非 GAAP 攤薄每股收益為 0.69 美元。
Turning to our strong cloud KPIs. We're very pleased with our Q3 and year-to-date performance. Cloud revenue on a constant currency basis increased 37% on a GAAP basis and 35% on a non-GAAP basis year-over-year in Q3, slightly faster growth than the first half of the year. Non-GAAP SaaS revenue on a constant currency basis increased 41% year-over-year in Q3 or 44% on a GAAP constant currency basis. Both metrics grew strongly in Q3 with SaaS growing faster than cloud.
轉向我們強大的雲 KPI。我們對第三季度和年初至今的表現感到非常滿意。第三季度按固定匯率計算的雲收入按 GAAP 計算同比增長 37%,按非 GAAP 計算同比增長 35%,增速略高於上半年。按固定匯率計算的非 GAAP SaaS 收入在第三季度同比增長 41%,按 GAAP 固定匯率計算增長 44%。這兩個指標在第三季度都強勁增長,其中 SaaS 的增長速度快於雲。
As we previously discussed, cloud includes optional managed services, which is a low-margin business that we're not targeting for growth. New SaaS ACV bookings represents annualized contract value of all new SaaS contracts booked in the quarter. In Q3, new SaaS ACV was up strong at 51% year-over-year on a constant currency basis, as we continue to see strong demand across industries and geographies as well as new and existing customers for the Verint Cloud platform.
正如我們之前所討論的,雲包括可選的託管服務,這是一項我們不打算實現增長的低利潤業務。新 SaaS ACV 預訂代表本季度預訂的所有新 SaaS 合同的年化合同價值。在第三季度,新的 SaaS ACV 按固定匯率計算同比增長 51%,因為我們繼續看到各行業和地區以及新老客戶對 Verint 雲平台的強勁需求。
As Dan discussed earlier, in Q3, perpetual revenue declined more than expected, which resulted in new PLE bookings being down 4% year-over-year on a constant currency basis. Year-to-date, new PLE bookings increased 11% on a constant currency basis. Given the trends we discussed today, I'd like to mention that it's useful to look at 2 components in PLE, perpetual and SaaS, which demonstrate different behaviors.
正如 Dan 之前討論的那樣,在第三季度,永久性收入下降幅度超過預期,這導致新的 PLE 預訂量按固定匯率計算同比下降 4%。今年迄今,按固定匯率計算,新的 PLE 預訂量增長了 11%。鑑於我們今天討論的趨勢,我想提一下,查看 PLE 中的 2 個組件(永久和 SaaS)很有用,它們展示了不同的行為。
In Q3, the SaaS component increased 42%, while the perpetual component declined 43%. And year-to-date, we experienced 41% growth in the SaaS component while the perpetual component declined 20%. I'd now like to discuss our current guidance for Q4 and the year ending January 31, 2023. We expect another quarter of SaaS growth in Q4, driving more than 35% SaaS revenue growth and 10% recurring revenue growth for the year, both on a constant currency basis.
在第三季度,SaaS 組件增長了 42%,而永久組件下降了 43%。今年迄今為止,我們的 SaaS 組件增長了 41%,而永久組件下降了 20%。我現在想討論我們目前對第四季度和截至 2023 年 1 月 31 日的年度的指導意見。我們預計第四季度 SaaS 將再增長一個季度,推動全年 SaaS 收入增長超過 35% 和經常性收入增長 10%,這兩者以固定貨幣為基礎。
We expect revenue to increase sequentially by around $6 million in Q4 and are adjusting our outlook for total revenue for the year to $900 million or 5% year-over-year growth on a constant currency basis. Our current outlook reflects the trends we discussed today, including strong SaaS growth, coupled with faster-than-expected perpetual decline. Our current outlook for perpetual revenue is approximately $110 million.
我們預計第四季度收入將環比增長約 600 萬美元,並將我們對全年總收入的預期調整為 9 億美元或按固定匯率計算同比增長 5%。我們目前的前景反映了我們今天討論的趨勢,包括強勁的 SaaS 增長,以及快於預期的永久下滑。我們目前的永久收入前景約為 1.1 億美元。
With respect to EPS, we are maintaining our guidance for 10% diluted EPS growth year-over-year. In Q4, below the line, we expect interest and other expense net should be around $1 million. Net income from a noncontrolling interest we have in the small joint venture should be around $200,000. Our cash tax rate should be about 12%, and we expect around 76 million fully diluted shares outstanding.
關於每股收益,我們維持 10% 攤薄後每股收益同比增長的指引。在第四季度,在線下,我們預計利息和其他費用淨額應在 100 萬美元左右。我們在小型合資企業中擁有的非控股權益的淨收入應該在 200,000 美元左右。我們的現金稅率應該在 12% 左右,我們預計約有 7600 萬股完全稀釋的已發行股票。
Before moving to our outlook for next year, let me take a minute to review where we are in our cloud transition across 3 areas and discuss how we're modeling next year's SaaS growth. Starting with the cloud mix. Over the next several years, our revenue in bookings have steadily shifted to SaaS. This year, we expect cloud revenue to represent 64% of our cloud software revenue. Regarding bookings, we expect 67% of new PLE bookings to come from SaaS. We're pleased with our continued progress with our mix change towards SaaS.
在轉向我們對明年的展望之前,讓我花點時間回顧一下我們在 3 個領域的雲轉型中所處的位置,並討論我們如何為明年的 SaaS 增長建模。從雲混合開始。在接下來的幾年裡,我們的預訂收入穩步轉向 SaaS。今年,我們預計雲收入將占我們雲軟件收入的 64%。關於預訂,我們預計 67% 的新 PLE 預訂來自 SaaS。我們很高興我們在向 SaaS 的組合變化方面持續取得進展。
Next, I'd like to discuss SaaS revenue. As we look at our expected 35% SaaS revenue growth, we expect around 60% of our growth to come from new business and 40% to come from conversions. At the end of this year, we expect to have $180 million of support revenue remaining, which we expect to convert to SaaS over time.
接下來,我想討論 SaaS 收入。當我們審視我們預期的 35% 的 SaaS 收入增長時,我們預計大約 60% 的增長來自新業務,40% 來自轉換。到今年年底,我們預計還有 1.8 億美元的支持收入,我們希望隨著時間的推移將其轉化為 SaaS。
Third, our recurring mix of revenue continues to increase and we expect around 86% of our software revenue to come from recurring sources this year, driven by new SaaS ACV bookings and strong renewal rates. Overall, I believe we're well positioned going to next year for continued SaaS growth.
第三,我們的經常性收入組合繼續增加,在新的 SaaS ACV 預訂和強勁的續訂率的推動下,我們預計今年約 86% 的軟件收入將來自經常性來源。總的來說,我相信我們為明年的 SaaS 持續增長做好了準備。
Now let's turn to our guidance for next year. Our fiscal '24 guidance reflects the trends we discussed today, including strong SaaS bookings, declining perpetual as well as the current macro environment, which may be impacting customer and partner buying decisions.
現在讓我們轉向明年的指導。我們的 24 財年指南反映了我們今天討論的趨勢,包括強勁的 SaaS 預訂、不斷下降的永久性以及當前的宏觀環境,這可能會影響客戶和合作夥伴的購買決策。
For total revenue, we expect 6% year-over-year growth on a constant currency basis, resulting in $945 million of reported revenue, plus or minus 2%. We expect recurring revenue to grow close to 10% year-over-year on a constant currency basis with perpetual revenue coming in around $100 million. We expect gross margins and operating margins to continue to expand and deliver 8% fully diluted EPS growth.
對於總收入,我們預計在固定匯率基礎上同比增長 6%,報告收入為 9.45 億美元,上下浮動 2%。我們預計經常性收入在固定匯率基礎上同比增長近 10%,永久收入約為 1 億美元。我們預計毛利率和營業利潤率將繼續擴大,並實現 8% 的完全攤薄每股收益增長。
Now let's discuss some below-the-line assumptions. We expect around $750,000 per quarter of interest and other expense net. We expect about $200,000 per quarter of net income from a noncontrolling interest we have in a small joint venture. We expect the cash tax rate of approximately 11% for each quarter and for the year. And our guidance assumes 75 million fully diluted shares, down slightly from the year due to the new buyback program. The actual share count will depend on the pace of the buyback.
現在讓我們討論一些線下假設。我們預計每季度的利息和其他費用淨額約為 750,000 美元。我們預計每季度約有 200,000 美元的淨收入來自我們在一家小型合資企業中的非控股權益。我們預計每個季度和全年的現金稅率約為 11%。由於新的回購計劃,我們的指引假設 7500 萬股完全攤薄,較上年略有下降。實際股份數量將取決於回購的速度。
In summary, we're pleased with our Q3 and year-to-date results and are well positioned for a strong finish to the year. We expect the strong SaaS momentum we experienced this year to continue into next year, driving another year of strong earnings growth. Longer term, we are operating in a favorable market that supports sustainable SaaS growth from which we expect to drive double-digit total revenue growth, continued margin expansion and double-digit earnings growth.
總而言之,我們對第三季度和年初至今的業績感到滿意,並為今年的強勢收官做好了準備。我們預計我們今年經歷的強勁 SaaS 勢頭將持續到明年,推動又一年的強勁盈利增長。從長遠來看,我們在支持可持續 SaaS 增長的有利市場中運營,我們預計將從中推動兩位數的總收入增長、持續的利潤增長和兩位數的盈利增長。
Our new $200 million share buyback program, which at current prices could allow us to repurchase approximately 7% of our outstanding shares reflects the confidence we have in our outlook. And finally, as this is my last earnings call as CFO of Verint, I'd like to share that I couldn't be more confident in grant in our team and look forward to acting as an adviser to stay in the company for a period of time.
我們新的 2 億美元股票回購計劃,以當前價格計算,可以讓我們回購大約 7% 的已發行股票,這反映了我們對前景的信心。最後,由於這是我作為 Verint 首席財務官的最後一次財報電話會議,我想分享一下,我對我們團隊的 Grant 充滿信心,並期待作為顧問留在公司一段時間的時間。
And with that, operator, let's open up the line for questions.
有了這個,接線員,讓我們打開問題熱線。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from the line of Shaul Eyal from Cowen.
(操作員說明)我們的第一個問題將來自 Cowen 的 Shaul Eyal。
Shaul Eyal - MD & Senior Analyst
Shaul Eyal - MD & Senior Analyst
Good afternoon, gentlemen. So a healthy quarter on the cloud front, yet, next year's guidance is coming below consensus. Maybe can you reconcile for us, the tale of 2 [cities], so to speak? Is it a transition which is taking away from next year's revenue as product revenue is seeing headwinds? Or is it just a macro weighed in? And maybe if on the macro front, do you think that you've taken the necessary measures to tackle a moderating economy as you see it right now?
下午好,先生們。因此,雲計算方面是一個健康的季度,但明年的指導低於共識。可以這麼說,也許你能為我們和好,2 [城市] 的故事?隨著產品收入出現逆風,這種轉變是否會影響明年的收入?或者它只是一個宏?也許如果在宏觀方面,你是否認為你已經採取了必要的措施來應對你現在看到的經濟放緩?
Dan Bodner - CEO & Chairman of the Board
Dan Bodner - CEO & Chairman of the Board
Yes. Thanks for the question. So let me start by how we see the macro environment today, and of course, that we guide into next year. So clearly, a very, very strong Q3 on all metrics. SaaS revenue up 40% on a constant currency basis. SaaS booking, the new SaaS ACV is 51%. So not just revenue, but also booking strength, which is leading metric. 100-plus new logos, large deals up 50%, 31 over $1 million.
是的。謝謝你的問題。因此,讓我從我們如何看待今天的宏觀環境開始,當然還有我們對明年的指導。很明顯,第三季度在所有指標上都非常非常強勁。按固定匯率計算,SaaS 收入增長 40%。 SaaS 預訂,新的 SaaS ACV 為 51%。因此,不僅是收入,還有預訂強度,這是領先的指標。 100 多個新標識,大宗交易增長 50%,31 個超過 100 萬美元。
So right now, when we look at how we execute on our cloud strategy, clearly, the platform is driving customers to the cloud, and our goal is to help our customers complete their SaaS position. And we think we're doing well in Q3 and also in Q4. When we look at the Q4 guidance that we just gave, we expect SaaS bookings to grow in H2, 40%.
所以現在,當我們審視我們如何執行我們的雲戰略時,很明顯,該平台正在推動客戶轉向雲,我們的目標是幫助我們的客戶完成他們的 SaaS 職位。我們認為我們在第三季度和第四季度都做得很好。當我們查看我們剛剛給出的第四季度指南時,我們預計 SaaS 預訂量將在下半年增長 40%。
So continue to be strength. I spoke about the platform differentiation. It's an enterprise-wide platform, it's about CX automation. It's not about telephony or CRM. So it's very differentiated. And customer partners love it because it's quick time to value. And in this environment, when they're looking to reduce the cost of the workforce, this is exactly what they need. They need to elevate CX with automation and workforce efficiency. So that's kind of the backdrop for what we see now.
所以繼續給力。我談到了平台差異化。這是一個企業範圍的平台,它是關於 CX 自動化的。這與電話或 CRM 無關。所以差異化很大。客戶合作夥伴喜歡它,因為它可以快速實現價值。在這種環境下,當他們希望降低勞動力成本時,這正是他們所需要的。他們需要通過自動化和員工效率來提升客戶體驗。這就是我們現在看到的背景。
Now as you mentioned, on the perpetual, very clear change in Q3, where the perpetual license revenue are down, both booking and revenue, and sharply down from H1. So if you look at the H1 numbers, this was a run rate of $130 million perpetual -- and now in Q3, we are at the run rate of $100 million, so about $25 million in Q3, it's $100 million of run rate. And in Q4, it's going to be about the same.
現在正如你提到的,關於第三季度的永久性非常明顯的變化,永久許可收入下降,包括預訂和收入,並且比上半年大幅下降。所以如果你看一下上半年的數字,這是一個 1.3 億美元的永久運行率——現在在第三季度,我們的運行率為 1 億美元,所以第三季度約為 2500 萬美元,這是 1 億美元的運行率。在第四季度,情況將大致相同。
So a very short job potentially related to CapEx budgets and macro. But what's interesting, as we speak to these customers, and they have been customers for Verint for a long time, we didn't lose the deals. And when they come back, I believe some of them will come back as SaaS. So these are customers that before indicated, that it will take them a while to move to the cloud, and now they are more seriously considering transition to SaaS next year. So I think overall, the macro is favorable for SaaS, and we give a lot of metrics today to measure the progress of our SaaS mix.
因此,一份很短的工作可能與資本支出預算和宏觀有關。但有趣的是,當我們與這些客戶交談時,他們長期以來一直是 Verint 的客戶,我們並沒有失去交易。當他們回來時,我相信他們中的一些人會以 SaaS 的形式回來。所以這些客戶之前表示,他們需要一段時間才能遷移到雲端,現在他們更認真地考慮明年遷移到 SaaS。所以我認為總體而言,宏觀對 SaaS 有利,我們今天給出了很多指標來衡量我們 SaaS 組合的進展。
So now bridging into next year, on the recurring revenue side, we do expect to see 10% growth on a constant currency basis. So recurring revenue will grow nicely to $750 million. But perpetual, we are assuming $100 million and professional services usually 1:1 ratio with perpetual, so that's the balance.
因此,現在進入明年,在經常性收入方面,我們確實預計在固定匯率基礎上會出現 10% 的增長。因此,經常性收入將增長到 7.5 億美元。但是永久性的,我們假設 1 億美元,專業服務通常與永久性的比例為 1:1,這就是平衡。
So when you think about this, obviously, perpetual has a big impact on the guidance change. FX is another impact, about 1% next year. And the balance is what we're assuming in terms of SaaS booking next year, the assumption behind the guidance is 15% New SaaS ACV booking. That's obviously lower than H2. In H2, now we have 40%, but I think that's the main assumption that drives the balance of the guidance. And that's top line, right?
因此,當您考慮這一點時,顯然,永久性對指導變化有很大影響。外匯是另一個影響,明年約為 1%。餘額是我們對明年 SaaS 預訂的假設,指導背後的假設是 15% 的新 SaaS ACV 預訂。這明顯低於 H2。在 H2,現在我們有 40%,但我認為這是推動指導平衡的主要假設。這是最重要的,對吧?
So just to finish the way we think about it, we -- in addition to continue to motivate our customers to move to SaaS, which we've done since the spin and continue to do into this economy, we also see a very nice margin expansion. Q3 gross margin are 71%. We expect Q4 gross margin to continue to expand from there.
因此,為了完成我們的思考方式,我們 - 除了繼續激勵我們的客戶轉向 SaaS,這是我們自分拆以來所做的並將繼續為這種經濟做的事情,我們還看到了非常可觀的利潤擴張。 Q3毛利率為71%。我們預計第四季度的毛利率將繼續擴大。
So the mix between recurring and nonrecurring, as Doug mentioned before, is creating a good uplift on gross margin. And that, coupled with expense management, we are able to continue to grow earnings much faster than we're growing the top line this year, and that's also our plan for next year, as we guided for $2.70, which is 8% growth.
因此,正如 Doug 之前提到的,經常性和非經常性之間的混合正在創造毛利率的良好提升。而且,再加上費用管理,我們能夠繼續以比我們今年增長的收入更快的速度增長收益,這也是我們明年的計劃,因為我們指導為 2.70 美元,即 8% 的增長。
So in summary, we think next year is 2 objectives: Accelerate the cloud transition and have a very strong SaaS growth, 30% SaaS revenue growth and also manage the bottom line. Of course, we have an FX, we have natural hedge, as you know, and we manage the gross margin and cost structure to accelerate earnings faster than revenue.
因此,總而言之,我們認為明年有 2 個目標:加速雲轉型並實現非常強勁的 SaaS 增長,30% 的 SaaS 收入增長以及管理底線。當然,我們有 FX,我們有自然對沖,如您所知,我們管理毛利率和成本結構,以比收入更快地加速盈利。
Shaul Eyal - MD & Senior Analyst
Shaul Eyal - MD & Senior Analyst
Got it. And thank you for this elaborated reply. As we think about some of those elongated sales cycles, can you identify for us maybe is that a vertical driven? Is that specifically macro-driven? How should we be thinking about it? And understanding that for now, and again, correct me if I'm wrong, nothing is getting canceled, but rather pushed, and please, correct me if I'm wrong. But is it coming from one industry or it's pretty much broad-based.
知道了。感謝您的詳盡答复。當我們考慮其中一些延長的銷售週期時,您能否為我們確定這可能是垂直驅動的?那是專門宏觀驅動的嗎?我們應該如何思考它?並理解現在,如果我錯了,請再次糾正我,沒有任何事情會被取消,而是被推動,如果我錯了,請糾正我。但它是來自一個行業還是具有相當廣泛的基礎。
Dan Bodner - CEO & Chairman of the Board
Dan Bodner - CEO & Chairman of the Board
Yes. So I would say, first, we don't see elongated sales cycle across every customer. There are some customers actually that are looking to accelerate because they see ROI and they need new technology, while, other customers, obviously take the time because they want to be more careful in spending. And clearly, as we discussed -- as I discussed before, the -- there's a CapEx OpEx difference here that is very visible in terms of the longer sales cycle.
是的。所以我想說,首先,我們沒有看到每個客戶的銷售週期都延長了。實際上,有些客戶正在尋求加速,因為他們看到了投資回報率並且需要新技術,而其他客戶顯然需要時間,因為他們希望在支出時更加謹慎。很明顯,正如我們所討論的那樣——正如我之前所討論的那樣——這裡的資本支出運營支出差異在較長的銷售週期方面非常明顯。
But if I look at other -- like you mentioned verticals, and so I'll start with geographies. Year-to-date, what we see in Americas, EMEA and APAC is very similar. So I can say no change in -- by geography. In terms of verticals, we are very diversified across verticals, OSB Financial services continue to be strong. Health care continues to be a strong part of our business. These are large B2C companies, and we had 7 and 8 digits wins with these companies moving to the cloud. So I think it's more a customer-by-customer decision.
但如果我看看其他——就像你提到的垂直領域,那麼我將從地理開始。年初至今,我們在美洲、EMEA 和亞太地區看到的情況非常相似。所以我可以說在地理上沒有變化。在垂直領域,我們在垂直領域非常多元化,OSB 金融服務繼續保持強勁。醫療保健仍然是我們業務的重要組成部分。這些都是大型 B2C 公司,隨著這些公司遷移到雲端,我們獲得了 7 和 8 位數的勝利。所以我認為這更像是一個客戶一個客戶的決定。
When I look back at our recession in 2008, where we did really well and we grew a little bit, and we grew earnings a lot in 2008. And it was -- obviously, we're diversified. We have larger enterprise customers and we're also very sticky solutions. But also, it was very clear that this type of B2C companies need to engage with their customers in good times and in bad times, and especially when the workforce costs are increasing, and they need technology to increase automation while elevating CX. So I think that's the dynamic. We see some customers that have more pause and we see customers that actually have, I would say, even accelerate their technology purchase.
當我回顧 2008 年的經濟衰退時,我們在 2008 年的表現非常好,增長了一點,我們的收入在 2008 年增長了很多。很明顯,我們是多元化的。我們有更大的企業客戶,我們也是非常有粘性的解決方案。而且,很明顯,這類 B2C 公司需要在順境和逆境中與客戶互動,尤其是在勞動力成本增加的情況下,他們需要技術來提高自動化程度,同時提升客戶體驗。所以我認為這是動態的。我們看到一些客戶有更多的停頓,我們看到客戶實際上有,我想說,甚至加速他們的技術購買。
The way we think about guidance for next year is obviously like we always did, we take what we see now, and that's reflected in our guidance. So we're not trying to project a change, whether it's to the better or the worse, but we think this is a pretty good environment for us with our ability to protect earnings with our increasing gross margins and cost management.
我們考慮明年指導的方式顯然和我們一直做的一樣,我們採用我們現在看到的,這反映在我們的指導中。因此,我們並沒有試圖預測變化,無論是好是壞,但我們認為這對我們來說是一個非常好的環境,我們有能力通過不斷提高的毛利率和成本管理來保護收益。
Operator
Operator
And our next question will come from the line of Ryan MacDonald from Needham.
我們的下一個問題將來自 Needham 的 Ryan MacDonald。
Ryan Michael MacDonald - Senior Analyst
Ryan Michael MacDonald - Senior Analyst
Questions, and congrats to Doug on a great career and best of luck in the future. Dan, maybe to start, I just wanted to clarify, I think one of the assumptions you talked about for next year's outlook, did you say that SaaS bookings that you're expecting 15% growth next year? Can you clarify that? And if so, can you talk about maybe some of the components of what you're seeing within the SaaS business that would sort of warrant such a slowdown from the growth rates this year? Is it a tough comp? Or are you starting to see some slowing in the SaaS side of the business as well? But just love have some clarification there.
問題,並祝賀道格在未來的偉大職業生涯和好運。丹,也許首先,我只是想澄清一下,我認為你談到明年前景的假設之一,你是說你預計明年增長 15% 的 SaaS 預訂嗎?你能澄清一下嗎?如果是這樣,您能否談談您在 SaaS 業務中看到的一些組成部分,這些組成部分可能會證明今年的增長率會放緩?這是一個艱難的比賽嗎?或者您是否也開始看到業務的 SaaS 方面有所放緩?但只是愛在那裡有一些澄清。
Dan Bodner - CEO & Chairman of the Board
Dan Bodner - CEO & Chairman of the Board
Yes. So let's look at all the SaaS metrics for next year. Starting with revenue, SaaS revenue, we're expecting 30% growth in SaaS revenue. As you know, we have about 60-40 in revenue between new booking and conversion. So conversion, we expect to continue to grow, but there are different dynamics in terms of the new SaaS booking. So 30% growth is SaaS revenue, 60% from expansion and new logos and 40% of conversion. That's one assumption. And again, that's the same mix we have this year.
是的。因此,讓我們看看明年的所有 SaaS 指標。從收入、SaaS 收入開始,我們預計 SaaS 收入將增長 30%。如您所知,我們在新預訂和轉化之間的收入約為 60-40。所以轉換,我們預計會繼續增長,但在新的 SaaS 預訂方面存在不同的動態。所以 30% 的增長是 SaaS 收入,60% 來自擴張和新標識,40% 來自轉化。這是一個假設。再一次,這與我們今年的組合相同。
In terms of the booking assumption. We -- last year, we -- I mean the current year -- I'm sorry, the current year in H1, we had 15% new SaaS ACV growth. In H2, we are projecting now 40%. So it's a big increase from H1 to H2. I'd love to think that this will continue to next year. But right now, in our guidance, we assumed the same as H1 this year. So 15% is our assumption to drive the guidance.
在預訂假設方面。我們——去年,我們——我的意思是今年——對不起,今年上半年,我們有 15% 的新 SaaS ACV 增長。在 H2,我們現在預計 40%。所以從 H1 到 H2 有很大的增加。我很樂意認為這將持續到明年。但現在,在我們的指導中,我們假設與今年上半年相同。所以 15% 是我們推動指導的假設。
I don't think that it's suggesting that we see deceleration. It's suggesting that we are trying to provide now in December guidance, and we're trying to look at that from a perspective of what did we achieve this year. And we clearly have acceleration in Q3, which we expect strong new (inaudible) in Q4, but we're only baking 15% into our guidance assumptions.
我不認為這表明我們看到減速。這表明我們正試圖在 12 月提供指導,我們正試圖從我們今年取得的成就的角度來看待這一點。而且我們顯然在第三季度有加速,我們預計第四季度會有強勁的新(聽不見),但我們只將 15% 納入我們的指導假設。
Ryan Michael MacDonald - Senior Analyst
Ryan Michael MacDonald - Senior Analyst
That's helpful color.
這是有用的顏色。
Dan Bodner - CEO & Chairman of the Board
Dan Bodner - CEO & Chairman of the Board
Yes. Just to finish, if you're building the model, you can also assume that about 75% of our new SaaS ACV is bundled SaaS and 25% is unbundled SaaS. So just to give you the numbers -- so right at this point, our guidance for this year suggests we're going to have $120 million of ACV bookings that are new. And that number will grow to about [140 million] next year in the guidance and you can assume a 75%, 25% mix for this year and for next year?
是的。最後,如果您正在構建模型,您還可以假設大約 75% 的新 SaaS ACV 是捆綁 SaaS,25% 是非捆綁 SaaS。所以只是給你數字 - 所以就在這一點上,我們今年的指導表明我們將有 1.2 億美元的新 ACV 預訂。在指導中,明年這個數字將增長到大約 [1.4 億],你可以假設今年和明年的混合比例為 75%、25%?
Ryan Michael MacDonald - Senior Analyst
Ryan Michael MacDonald - Senior Analyst
That's super helpful color. I appreciate that, Dan. And maybe, Doug, for you. On the gross margin expansion, great to see that we're going to get to 70% for the year here as that transition accelerates. I'm curious, as you think about next year, I know you talked about gross margin expansion, but as perpetual continues to fall off, what structurally do you think gross margins can get to when you think about '24 and beyond?
這是超級有用的顏色。我很感激,丹。也許,道格,對你來說。在毛利率擴張方面,很高興看到隨著轉型的加速,我們今年將達到 70%。我很好奇,當你考慮明年時,我知道你談到了毛利率擴張,但隨著永久性持續下降,當你考慮 24 歲及以後時,你認為毛利率在結構上會達到什麼水平?
Douglas E. Robinson - CFO
Douglas E. Robinson - CFO
Yes. Thanks, Ryan. We continue to see gross margin expansion. It's kind of a weighted average thing, right? So a recurring revenues have a higher gross margin. And as that becomes a bigger piece of the puzzle, the gross margins are going to expand. So you'll look -- we'll see Q4 will be up 1 point or so from Q3, that will give us to 70% for this year. And we'll probably have 50 bps or so next year and then continuing and we might see acceleration beyond that in the out years.
是的。謝謝,瑞安。我們繼續看到毛利率擴張。這是一種加權平均數,對吧?因此,經常性收入具有更高的毛利率。隨著這成為一個更大的難題,毛利率將會擴大。所以你會看到——我們會看到第四季度比第三季度上升 1 個百分點左右,這將使我們今年達到 70%。明年我們可能會有 50 個基點左右,然後繼續,我們可能會在未來幾年看到超過這個速度的加速。
Dan Bodner - CEO & Chairman of the Board
Dan Bodner - CEO & Chairman of the Board
Yes. The numbers in the dashboard. We have over 75% gross margin on recurring and under 50% gross margin on nonrecurring. So as we continue to grow recurring next year, 10%, and obviously, nonrecurring continue to decline, that's the average of the mix shift towards the 75% plus that we have currently in the recurring gross margin.
是的。儀錶盤中的數字。我們的經常性毛利率超過 75%,非經常性毛利率低於 50%。因此,隨著我們明年的經常性業務繼續增長,10%,顯然,非經常性業務繼續下降,這就是我們目前的經常性毛利率向 75% 以上的混合轉變的平均值。
Operator
Operator
And our next question is from the line of Peter Levine from Evercore ISI.
我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Peter Levine。
Peter Marc Levine - Analyst
Peter Marc Levine - Analyst
And Doug, best of luck in your next endeavor. Maybe the first one is the kick stay with the macro theme is what's the recession playbook for Verint, right? Like what -- we've seen others kind of take the right steps to kind of resize their business, prioritize investments, focus on efficiencies. Like what cards do you have in your back pocket if things get worse to play? And then it stands today, can you quantify your hiring plans for next year?
道格,祝你在接下來的努力中好運。也許第一個是堅持宏觀主題是 Verint 的經濟衰退劇本,對吧?就像什麼——我們已經看到其他人採取了正確的步驟來調整他們的業務規模、確定投資的優先次序、關注效率。如果事情變得更糟,你的後兜里有什麼牌?然後站在今天,你能量化你明年的招聘計劃嗎?
Dan Bodner - CEO & Chairman of the Board
Dan Bodner - CEO & Chairman of the Board
Yes. So in terms of the cost structure, the gross margin expansion is a function of a mix shift towards recurring. So that's going to continue into next year. We expect Q3, if you look at our OpEx, it's $102 million, that's down from Q1 and Q2, and we expect to maintain that in Q4.
是的。因此,就成本結構而言,毛利率的擴張是混合向經常性轉變的結果。所以這將持續到明年。我們預計第三季度,如果你看一下我們的運營支出,它是 1.02 億美元,低於第一季度和第二季度,我們預計第四季度將保持這一水平。
Part of what's working in the industry is affected the labor environment has cooled off, so we continue to hire talent, but we have selective hiring. And we also have a little bit of a mix shift towards geographies where there is low cost because Verint is a global company. And that's a lever we've used before to manage our cost structure.
該行業的部分工作受到勞動力環境降溫的影響,因此我們繼續招聘人才,但我們有選擇性地招聘。由於 Verint 是一家全球性公司,我們也有一些向低成本地區的混合轉變。這是我們以前用來管理成本結構的槓桿。
And of course, the FX, the fact that we have a natural hedge regardless of what the currencies will do, we don't have to deal with the FX headwind. It's a headwind to the top line, and that's why we report constant currency, but it does not create a headwind on the bottom line.
當然,外匯,無論貨幣走勢如何,我們都有自然對沖這一事實,我們不必應對外匯逆風。這是頂線的逆風,這就是我們報告不變貨幣的原因,但它不會對底線造成逆風。
If you look at our last recession, 2008, we used all these levers, and we actually had huge growth in earnings that year because the top line didn't drop as much as other companies, and we did manage the bottom line and we ended up with great margins. So I think we know how to manage our expenses and we have the ability to use fixed cost and variable cost. At the same time, so far, we think that we see a good pipeline for next year that supports our guidance. So if things can get worse and obviously, we'll prepare. And if needed, we know how to respond.
如果你看看我們上一次經濟衰退,2008 年,我們使用了所有這些槓桿,那一年我們的收益實際上有了巨大的增長,因為收入沒有像其他公司那樣下降那麼多,我們確實控制了利潤,我們結束了利潤豐厚。所以我認為我們知道如何管理我們的費用,我們有能力使用固定成本和可變成本。與此同時,到目前為止,我們認為我們看到了明年支持我們指導的良好管道。因此,如果情況變得更糟,而且很明顯,我們會做好準備。如果需要,我們知道如何回應。
Peter Marc Levine - Analyst
Peter Marc Levine - Analyst
With -- on the cloud revenue side, can you share or quantify what your net retention rates look like? And I ask because you talk about the 60-40 split, but if I think about 60% net new logos, but if I think about the installed base, -- what are you -- are you assuming that you're going to be able to better tap into your installed base, assuming the environment gets tough, right, it's an easier to sell. So just curious to know, can you just quantify net retention rates and then kind of how are you positioning sales reps next year to maybe focus back more on those installed base sales.
在雲收入方面,您能否分享或量化您的淨保留率?我問是因為你談論的是 60-40 的比例,但如果我考慮 60% 的淨新徽標,但如果我考慮已安裝的基礎,你是什麼——你是否假設你會成為能夠更好地利用您的安裝基礎,假設環境變得艱難,對,它更容易銷售。所以很想知道,你能不能量化淨保留率,然後你明年如何定位銷售代表,以便更多地關注那些已安裝的基礎銷售。
Dan Bodner - CEO & Chairman of the Board
Dan Bodner - CEO & Chairman of the Board
Yes, absolutely. So first, just to clarify, the 60% new is not only a new logo. It's new logo and expansion from the base. So it's anything new, any new business as opposed to conversion. And historically, we're generating more than 90% every quarter, every year from our base. So large enterprise customers that continue to expand and buy and they need more technology. And we have very sticky solutions and they continue to expand. And now with the cloud platform, the time to value is actually faster. So we actually think it's going to be easier for our customer base to expand relative to the on-prem environment.
是的,一點沒錯。所以首先要澄清一下,60% 的新不僅僅是一個新標誌。這是新的標誌和從基地的擴展。所以它是任何新事物,任何新業務而不是轉換。從歷史上看,我們每個季度、每年都從我們的基地產生超過 90% 的收益。因此,不斷擴大和購買的大型企業客戶需要更多技術。我們有非常有粘性的解決方案,並且它們會繼續擴展。而現在有了雲平台,實現價值的時間實際上更快了。所以我們實際上認為,相對於本地環境,我們的客戶群更容易擴展。
So what we kind of discussed historically is that our GRR, our gross retention rates are in the 90s and that NRR, net retention rates are over 100%. We talked about reporting pure cloud metrics when we get to be more pure cloud company. So in some metrics like new SaaS ACV, we already have that in the dashboard. NRR to get you the specific numbers, they will come over time as we ready to report NRR. But the sales force, your question about the sales force and how we organized, we expect the vast majority of our revenue to come from the base.
所以我們歷史上討論的是我們的 GRR,我們的總保留率在 90 年代,而 NRR,淨保留率超過 100%。當我們成為更純粹的雲公司時,我們談到了報告純雲指標。因此,在一些指標中,比如新的 SaaS ACV,我們已經在儀表板中有了它。 NRR 為您提供具體數字,隨著我們準備報告 NRR,它們會隨著時間的推移而到來。但是銷售人員,你關於銷售人員以及我們如何組織的問題,我們預計我們的絕大部分收入來自基地。
And when we get new customers, like we got 100 new logos today, and we mentioned some great names in these logos, but they start small. New logos will buy into our platform and then over time, they'll expand with the platform. So we have very little reliance on new logos. Most of our new business come from the basic spending.
當我們獲得新客戶時,比如我們今天有 100 個新徽標,我們在這些徽標中提到了一些偉大的名字,但他們從小處著手。新徽標將融入我們的平台,然後隨著時間的推移,它們將隨著平台的發展而擴展。所以我們很少依賴新標識。我們的大部分新業務來自基本支出。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our next question will come from the line of Samad Samana from Jefferies.
(操作員說明)我們的下一個問題將來自 Jefferies 的 Samad Samana。
Samad Saleem Samana - Equity Analyst
Samad Saleem Samana - Equity Analyst
Great. Maybe first, just to understand the conversion mix expectation, how many of those customers have already signed up or committed to convert next year? And therefore, you have visibility into it. So like the contract is -- I don't know if that contract would be (inaudible), but how many have already said they are going to versus -- of that 40%, how much do you have to actually go and convinced to convert? Just maybe help us understand that.
偉大的。也許首先,只是為了了解轉換組合預期,這些客戶中有多少已經註冊或承諾明年轉換?因此,您可以看到它。所以就像合同一樣——我不知道該合同是否會(聽不清),但有多少人已經表示他們將要與——在那 40% 中,你必須實際去做多少並說服轉變?也許可以幫助我們理解這一點。
Dan Bodner - CEO & Chairman of the Board
Dan Bodner - CEO & Chairman of the Board
Yes. So all these customers have contractual vehicles with Verint. They're not new. We don't have to get into a new relationship. And many of these customers actually while they didn't convert the legacy solutions to the cloud already bought some new applications in the Verint Cloud. So they're not necessarily at a position that they just need to make a decision first time to test Verint in the cloud. Some decided that they see no rush.
是的。因此,所有這些客戶都與 Verint 簽訂了合同車輛。它們不是新的。我們不必建立新的關係。實際上,這些客戶中的許多人雖然沒有將遺留解決方案轉換為雲,但已經在 Verint 雲中購買了一些新應用程序。因此,他們不一定處於只需要在第一時間做出決定在雲中測試 Verint 的位置。一些人認為他們不著急。
They like the Verint solutions on-prem. It's working. They don't want to be disrupted. But new capabilities that we offer in the cloud, they start the journey with Verint in the cloud. So we have -- the bottom line is we do have discussions with these customers, ongoing on their appetite for conversion. This discussion with most of our customers the discussion started, not now, but a year ago. And many said not this year, maybe next year, maybe the next the year after.
他們喜歡本地 Verint 解決方案。它的工作。他們不想被打亂。但是我們在雲中提供的新功能,他們開始了雲中 Verint 的旅程。所以我們 - 底線是我們確實與這些客戶進行了討論,並持續討論他們對轉換的興趣。與我們大多數客戶的討論不是現在開始的,而是一年前開始的。許多人說今年不會,也許明年,也許後年。
So it's a journey. Customers need to go through their own internal decisions because it's affecting their IT organization, security considerations. And obviously, they look at the ROI, what's the best time from an ROI perspective to make the move. So I'm not suggesting that we have clear contractual commitments for customers on the date that they will convert, but we have a good sense of which ones are budgeting conversion into next year and which ones are only contemplating.
所以這是一個旅程。客戶需要通過他們自己的內部決策,因為這會影響他們的 IT 組織和安全考慮。顯然,他們關注的是投資回報率,從投資回報率的角度來看,採取行動的最佳時間是什麼時候。因此,我並不是說我們在客戶轉換之日對客戶有明確的合同承諾,但我們很清楚哪些客戶正在為明年的轉換做預算,哪些只是在考慮。
And our assumption for next year is consistent with what we've done this year. So it's not that we are trying to rely on some new dynamics in our base. You could see that for the last few years, every year, there's about $50 million or a little bit more than $50 million of maintenance revenue that is converting into the cloud. So it's pretty consistent for next year.
我們對明年的假設與我們今年所做的一致。所以這並不是說我們試圖依賴我們基地中的一些新動力。您可以看到,在過去幾年中,每年大約有 5000 萬美元或略高於 5000 萬美元的維護收入正在轉化為雲計算。所以明年的情況非常穩定。
Samad Saleem Samana - Equity Analyst
Samad Saleem Samana - Equity Analyst
Great. Yes. Just -- that's very helpful to get more clarity. And then just on the share buyback, you guys gave guidance for the share count for next year, but just maybe how should we think about the prioritization of capital management in terms of tuck-in M&A versus the buyback? Is there any level that we think about where you would prioritize one or over the other? Should we think about it being kind of balanced like you've been in the past? Just what's the higher priority?
偉大的。是的。只是 - 這對於獲得更多清晰度非常有幫助。然後就股票回購而言,你們為明年的股票數量提供了指導,但也許我們應該如何考慮在合併併購與回購方面資本管理的優先次序?我們是否考慮過在哪個級別上您會優先考慮一個或另一個?我們是否應該像您過去那樣考慮它的平衡性?究竟什麼是更高的優先級?
Dan Bodner - CEO & Chairman of the Board
Dan Bodner - CEO & Chairman of the Board
Yes. So there are several drivers to the buyback. One is obviously our confidence in our long-term outlook that's reflected in the decision for the buyback. And the second is, as you remember, following the tax-free spin-off, we have some restrictions on the size of the buyback. And we're still obviously limited by the tax-free structure, but we're able to enhance this program within the limitation of the tax-free spin-off.
是的。因此,回購有幾個驅動因素。一個顯然是我們對回購決定所反映的長期前景的信心。第二個是,正如你記得的那樣,在免稅分拆之後,我們對回購的規模有一些限制。而且我們顯然仍然受到免稅結構的限制,但我們能夠在免稅分拆的限制內加強該計劃。
In terms of the overall capital structure, we expect this program to be more than 50%, somewhat more than 50% of our free cash flow that we generate in that period. So we think it's a good balance of using our free cash flow for buyback and the rest for other usage, M&A could become more attractive, we'll see, and we can obviously make adjustments over time. But this is the way we think about it now. We're generating a lot of cash. We expect to grow cash flow next year and the year after faster than EBITDA because we are in the second half of our cloud transition and the cash flow is accelerating. So we're expecting very healthy cash flow the next 2 years, and we think it's prudent to put more than 50% of that to -- back to investors.
就整體資本結構而言,我們預計該計劃將超過 50%,略高於我們在此期間產生的自由現金流的 50%。因此,我們認為將我們的自由現金流用於回購和其餘用於其他用途是一個很好的平衡,併購可能會變得更有吸引力,我們會看到,我們顯然可以隨著時間的推移做出調整。但這就是我們現在的思考方式。我們正在產生大量現金。我們預計明年和後年的現金流增長速度將超過 EBITDA,因為我們正處於雲轉型的後半段,現金流正在加速。因此,我們預計未來 2 年的現金流量非常健康,我們認為將其中 50% 以上的資金返還給投資者是明智的。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. And I'm not showing any further questions in the queue. So I'd like to turn the call over back to the speakers for any closing remarks.
謝謝。我不會在隊列中顯示任何其他問題。因此,我想將電話轉回給發言人,聽取任何結束語。
Matthew H. Frankel - Director of IR & Corporate Development
Matthew H. Frankel - Director of IR & Corporate Development
Great. Thank you for joining our call today. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out, and we look forward to speaking to you soon. Have a good night, everybody.
偉大的。感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。如果您有任何疑問,請隨時與我們聯繫,我們期待盡快與您交談。大家晚上好
Operator
Operator
And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.
今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。大家,祝你有美好的一天。