Viper Energy Inc (VNOM) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Viper Energy second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

    您好,感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Viper Energy 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)請注意,今天的會議正在錄音。

  • I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Chip Seale, Investor Relations Director. Chip, please go ahead.

    現在,我想將會議交給今天的第一位演講者、投資者關係總監 Chip Seale。奇普,請繼續。

  • Chip Seale - Investor Relations Director

    Chip Seale - Investor Relations Director

  • Thank you, Felicia. Good morning, and welcome to Viper Energy's second-quarter 2025 conference call. During our call today, we will reference an updated investor presentation, which can be found on Viper's website. Representing Viper today are Kaes Van't Hof, CEO; and Austen Gilfillian, President.

    謝謝你,費莉西亞。早安,歡迎參加 Viper Energy 2025 年第二季電話會議。在今天的電話會議中,我們將參考更新的投資者介紹,該介紹可以在 Viper 的網站上找到。今天代表 Viper 的是執行長 Kaes Van't Hof 和總裁 Austen Gilfillian。

  • During this conference call, the participants may make certain forward-looking statements relating to the company's financial condition, results of operations, plans, objectives, future performance and businesses. We caution you that actual results could differ materially from those that are indicated in these forward-looking statements due to a variety of factors.

    在本次電話會議中,與會者可能會對本公司的財務狀況、經營績效、計畫、目標、未來績效和業務做出某些前瞻性陳述。我們提醒您,由於各種因素,實際結果可能與這些前瞻性聲明中所示的結果有重大差異。

  • Information concerning these factors can be found in the company's filings with the SEC. In addition, we will make reference to certain non-GAAP measures. The reconciliations with the appropriate GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release issued yesterday afternoon.

    有關這些因素的資訊可以在公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中找到。此外,我們也將參考某些非公認會計準則指標。在我們昨天下午發布的收益報告中可以找到與適當的 GAAP 指標的對帳。

  • I will now turn the call over to Kaes.

    現在我將把電話轉給 Kaes。

  • Kaes Van't Hof - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Kaes Van't Hof - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Chip. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for listening to Viper Energy's second-quarter 2025 conference call. Despite oil price volatility in the second quarter, Viper delivered strong oil production growth, both on an absolute and per share basis.

    謝謝你,奇普。歡迎大家,感謝您收聽 Viper Energy 2025 年第二季電話會議。儘管第二季油價波動,但 Viper 的石油產量(絕對產量和每股產量)均實現了強勁成長。

  • After closing the drop-down transaction from Diamondback on May 1, we remain excited and highly confident about the meaningful organic growth that Diamondback can drive on our concentrated royalty assets over both the short and the long term. This symbiotic relationship uniquely positions Viper as one of the few companies in North American energy that is expected to deliver organic growth over the coming quarters and years.

    在 5 月 1 日完成 Diamondback 的下拉交易後,我們仍然對 Diamondback 在短期和長期內能夠推動我們集中的特許權使用費資產實現有意義的自然增長感到興奮並充滿信心。這種共生關係使 Viper 成為北美能源領域少數有望在未來幾季和幾年實現有機成長的公司之一。

  • As previously announced during the second quarter, we also announced a definitive agreement for Viper to acquire Sitio Royalties in an all-equity transaction. Sitio will be hosting their shareholder meeting to vote on a proposal to approve the merger on August 18, and if approved, we expect to close the merger shortly following the meeting. As a reminder, this transaction adds substantial scale and inventory depth for Viper that will support production profile over the next decade while also offering meaningful and immediate financial accretion.

    正如先前在第二季宣布的那樣,我們還宣布了 Viper 將以全股權交易方式收購 Sitio Royalties 的最終協議。Sitio 將於 8 月 18 日召開股東大會,對批准合併的提案進行投票,如果獲得批准,我們預計將在會議後不久完成合併。提醒一下,這筆交易為 Viper 增加了相當大的規模和庫存深度,這將支持未來十年的生產狀況,同時也帶來有意義且直接的財務增值。

  • Following the expected close of the Sitio acquisition later this month, we remain highly confident in our organic growth trajectory that it will continue into 2026 at current prices, led by over 15% expected year-over-year growth in our Diamondback-operated net oil production. We expect full year 2026 average production to increase by a mid-single-digit percentage from our expected pro forma Q4 2025 production levels, which is the first quarter of Viper plus Sitio consolidated.

    預計本月稍後 Sitio 收購案將完成,我們對我們的有機成長軌跡仍然充滿信心,以目前的價格計算,這一成長軌跡將持續到 2026 年,其中 Diamondback 營運的淨石油產量預計將同比增長 15% 以上。我們預計 2026 年全年平均產量將比我們預期的 2025 年第四季產量水準(即 Viper 和 Sitio 合併後的第一季)成長中等個位數百分比。

  • Importantly, based on this production outlook, we would expect our oil production per share for full year 2026 to be approximately 15% higher than full year 2025, highlighting the unique combination of organic growth and accretive acquisitions.

    重要的是,基於這一生產前景,我們預計 2026 年全年每股石油產量將比 2025 年全年高出約 15%,凸顯了有機成長和增值收購的獨特組合。

  • Moving to return of capital. We are going to return $0.56 a share to stockholders this quarter, primarily in the form of our base plus variable dividend, which represents 75% of our cash available for distribution. As announced with the Sitio acquisition, our pro forma net debt target is $1.5 billion, which represents approximately 1 turn of leverage at $50 WTI based on expected pro forma production levels.

    轉向資本回報。本季我們將向股東返還每股 0.56 美元,主要以基本股息加上浮動股息的形式,佔可供分配現金的 75%。正如在收購 Sitio 時宣布的那樣,我們的預期淨債務目標為 15 億美元,根據預期的預期生產水平,這相當於 WTI 價格為 50 美元時槓桿率的約 1 倍。

  • We're committed to maintaining a fortress balance sheet, but we see $1.5 billion as the right amount of permanent leverage for Viper as a royalty business, given we have limited operating costs and no CapEx. Therefore, in the coming quarters and years, should net debt be at or below $1.5 billion, stockholders should expect us to return all excess cash up to 100% of available cash for distribution generated in a quarter.

    我們致力於維持穩健的資產負債表,但我們認為,鑑於我們的營運成本有限且沒有資本支出,15 億美元對於 Viper 作為特許權使用費業務來說是合適的永久槓桿金額。因此,在未來幾季和幾年裡,如果淨債務達到或低於 15 億美元,股東應該預期我們會返還所有超額現金,最高可達一個季度產生的可供分配現金的 100%。

  • In conclusion, we continue to believe that Viper presents a differentiated investment opportunity within the broader energy space. Our relationship with Diamondback remains strong and a distinct competitive advantage for Viper.

    總之,我們仍然相信 Viper 在更廣泛的能源領域內呈現出差異化的投資機會。我們與 Diamondback 的關係仍然牢固,這對 Viper 來說是一個明顯的競爭優勢。

  • We believe Viper's unique ability to deliver sustained per share growth with zero capital and only limited operating costs will result in a differential ability to return increasing amounts of capital to our shareholders over the long term. And the proposed Sitio acquisition only enhances our position as we look to compete with mid- and large-cap E&Ps for investor dollars, attention and access to capital.

    我們相信,Viper 以零資本和有限的營運成本實現持續每股成長的獨特能力將帶來差異化的能力,讓我們能夠在長期內為股東帶來越來越多的資本回報。而擬議的 Sitio 收購只會增強我們的地位,因為我們希望與中型和大型 E&P 公司競爭投資者的資金、關注度和資本獲取管道。

  • Operator, please open the line for questions.

    接線員,請打開熱線以回答問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Chris Baker, Evercore.

    (操作員指示)Chris Baker,Evercore。

  • Chris Baker - Analyst

    Chris Baker - Analyst

  • Kaes, great to see the commitment to returning 100% of cash flow once you get to that $1.5 billion target. Maybe just help frame up the flexibility in terms of the path toward that target, whether it be organically or with perhaps noncore asset sales?

    Kaes,很高興看到你們承諾一旦達到 15 億美元的目標,就返還 100% 的現金流。也許只是幫助建立實現該目標的路徑方面的靈活性,無論是有機成長還是非核心資產出售?

  • Kaes Van't Hof - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Kaes Van't Hof - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Good question, Chris. I think there are a couple of ways to go about that. I mean, the base case is the business can be generating a lot of free cash. If we split that return 75/25 between equity and the balance sheet, we naturally get down to that $1.5 billion fairly quickly post Sitio close.

    是的。問得好,克里斯。我認為有幾種方法可以解決這個問題。我的意思是,基本情況是企業可以產生大量的免費現金。如果我們將回報以 75/25 的比例分配給股權和資產負債表,那麼在 Sitio 關閉後,我們自然很快就會達到 15 億美元。

  • I think we're probably -- we mentioned some of the non-Permian assets could be considered noncore to us, and there's been a lot of inbound interest that we haven't been able to do anything about because the deal hasn't closed yet, but I think it would be logical for us to look at an asset or two outside of the basin to kind of accelerate that.

    我認為我們可能——我們提到一些非二疊紀資產可能被視為我們的非核心資產,並且有很多入境興趣,但由於交易尚未完成,我們無法採取任何行動,但我認為,對我們來說,考慮盆地外的一兩項資產以加速這一進程是合乎邏輯的。

  • I think we feel really good about the balance sheet where it is today. I think we're also very cognizant of where the stock is trading, and I think it's extremely undervalued versus what we expect the growth profile to look like over the coming years. So I think we're going to balance a mix of probably a couple of noncore asset sales combined with free cash generation, but also a heavy dose of buybacks here when we're permitted to, post close.

    我認為我們對目前的資產負債表感到非常滿意。我認為我們也非常清楚股票的交易情況,我認為與我們預期的未來幾年的成長相比,它的估值嚴重低估。因此,我認為我們將平衡可能包括幾種非核心資產出售和自由現金產生,但在我們被允許的情況下,在收盤後進行大量回購。

  • Chris Baker - Analyst

    Chris Baker - Analyst

  • Yes, that's great. And then I guess just hitting on that last point, how are you thinking about the mix of buyback versus variable on top of the base dividend? Is it fair to think that we could see most of that variable cut in favor of buyback, just given where the stock is today?

    是的,太好了。然後我想回到最後一點,您如何考慮在基本股息的基礎上將回購與浮動股息結合?僅從目前的股價來看,我們是否可以認為大部分變數都可能被削減以利於回購?

  • Kaes Van't Hof - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Kaes Van't Hof - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. I mean, I think we're going to have to look at how many days we're allowed to buy back before a buyback window closes and when the Sitio deal actually does close, which we expect in the coming weeks. But yeah, I mean, I think generally, we prefer that Viper be a distribution vehicle. But when there are these dislocations, I think it's great to have a pure free cash flow vehicle to be able to allocate more cash to other forms of return of capital without worrying about CapEx commitments.

    是的。我的意思是,我認為我們必須看看在回購窗口關閉之前我們被允許回購多少天,以及 Sitio 交易何時真正結束,我們預計這將在未來幾週內完成。但是的,我的意思是,我認為總的來說,我們更喜歡 Viper 作為分銷工具。但當這些錯置時,我認為擁有一個純粹的自由現金流工具是很好的,它能夠將更多的現金分配給其他形式的資本回報,而不必擔心資本支出承諾。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Betty Jiang, Barclays.

    巴克萊銀行的 Betty Jiang。

  • Betty Jiang - Analyst

    Betty Jiang - Analyst

  • I want to ask about the third-party operator activities. It's quite impressive considering the broader industry slowdown that you're seeing more activities running on the third-party assets and increased backlog. Just want to see what you -- any color on that dynamic? And do you think that level of activity is sustainable?

    我想問一下第三方業者的活動。考慮到整個行業放緩的趨勢,你會看到第三方資產上運行的活動越來越多,積壓訂單也越來越多,這是相當令人印象深刻的。只是想看看你——對這種動態有什麼看法?您認為這種程度的活動可持續嗎?

  • Austen Gilfillian - President

    Austen Gilfillian - President

  • Yeah. Good question, Betty. I think it's a couple of things. One, going back to last quarter, when we were kind of in the midst of some of the heightened volatility, we highlighted for stand-alone Viper, what our exposure is to third-party operators. And really, the bulk of the existing production and activity is just a handful of really large caps, namely being Exxon, Oxy, EOG, and Conoco.

    是的。問得好,貝蒂。我認為有幾件事。首先,回顧上個季度,當我們處於某種加劇的波動之中時,我們強調了獨立 Viper 對第三方業者的風險敞口。事實上,現有的生產和活動主要集中在少數幾家大型公司,分別是埃克森美孚、西方石油、EOG 和康菲石油。

  • So I think those operators are folks that you would expect to stay pretty consistent with their development plan kind of through periods of volatility. So that's benefited us.

    所以我認為這些運營商是那些在波動時期仍然堅持其開發計劃的人。這對我們來說是有益的。

  • Secondly, too, you're kind of seeing some of these concentrated assets that we've acquired and some of the recent acquisitions, getting some activity on them. So it's really been more of a drive in net activity while gross activity has been relatively flat.

    其次,您也會看到我們收購的一些集中資產以及最近的一些收購正在進行一些活動。因此,這實際上更多地推動了淨活動,而總活動則相對平穩。

  • And then the third thing that I would flag, and you can kind of see it showing up in one of the pie charts on slide 12 is we're starting to see some of the benefit in those numbers from the Double Eagle development on the Reagan County asset that they have that development agreement in place with Diamondback to drive some growth on what was a very concentrated asset in the drop-down.

    然後我要指出的第三件事,你可以在幻燈片 12 上的一個餅圖中看到它,我們開始從 Double Eagle 在裡根縣資產上的開發中看到這些數字帶來的一些好處,他們與 Diamondback 達成了開發協議,以推動下拉式選單中非常集中的資產的成長。

  • Betty Jiang - Analyst

    Betty Jiang - Analyst

  • Great color. Thanks. So a follow-up to that is, if I look at your 2026 production growth outlook of the mid-single-digit growth, under the -- I believe that's really underpinned by Diamondback operated activities. Based on what you currently see with the third-party activity, do you think -- could there be upside to that growth trajectory in '26?

    顏色很棒。謝謝。因此,後續問題是,如果我看一下您 2026 年的產量成長前景,即中等個位數成長,我相信這確實是由 Diamondback 經營的活動所支撐的。根據您目前看到的第三方活動,您認為 26 年的成長軌跡是否還會出現上行空間?

  • Austen Gilfillian - President

    Austen Gilfillian - President

  • Yeah, Betty, so that mid-single digits is really 3,000 or 4,000 barrels a day of growth, if you think about it on an absolute basis, which is entirely driven by the growth that we see coming from the Diamondback operated side.

    是的,貝蒂,所以如果你從絕對值上考慮,中等個位數的增長實際上意味著每天 3,000 或 4,000 桶,這完全是由我們看到的來自 Diamondback 運營方面的增長所推動的。

  • So as we look at it today, if you maintain like historical permit conversions and timing and such, I think current activity on the third-party side would be a little bit of growth actually relative to the baseline of being flat. But a lot of things can change, and there's certainly a lot of volatility in the market. So we're still kind of guiding to third-party volumes staying flat, but we are really encouraged by the activity levels that we've seen over the past couple of months.

    因此,當我們今天看到它時,如果你保持歷史許可證轉換和時間等,我認為第三方方面的當前活動實際上會相對於持平的基線有所增長。但很多事情都會發生變化,市場肯定會有很大的波動。因此,我們仍然認為第三方交易量將保持平穩,但過去幾個月看到的活動水平確實令我們感到鼓舞。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Neil Mehta, Goldman Sachs.

    高盛的尼爾·梅塔。

  • Neil Mehta - Analyst

    Neil Mehta - Analyst

  • Just want your perspective on some of the noncore or I should say, non-Permian stuff in the Sitio portfolio, your perspective on how are you evaluating how much of that ultimately stays versus gets monetized? And this has historically been a Permian pure-play asset. How important is that for you as you think about the long term of the business?

    只是想聽聽您對 Sitio 投資組合中的一些非核心或非二疊紀資源的看法,您如何評估其中有多少最終會保留下來,有多少會貨幣化?從歷史上看,這一直是二疊紀的純粹資產。當您考慮業務的長期發展時,這對您來說有多重要?

  • Kaes Van't Hof - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Kaes Van't Hof - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, Neil, I mean, I think we still see our combined business as a long-term Permian-only business, but I think we've done a lot of deals over the past years, and in some instances, we've sold assets immediately post close to pay down debt or just to clean up the asset base.

    是的,尼爾,我的意思是,我認為我們仍然將合併後的業務視為長期的二疊紀業務,但我認為我們在過去幾年中已經做了很多交易,在某些情況下,我們在交易結束後立即出售資產以償還債務或只是為了清理資產基礎。

  • I think in this situation, given that it's minerals and it's really heavily PDP weighted, we're probably going to be pretty patient on some of the larger positions, particularly knowing that the buyer universe is strong, but the buyer universe is going to underwrite strip. And with the strip weak, we don't have to sell assets here and might be patient waiting to sell some of the larger positions over the next few years.

    我認為在這種情況下,考慮到它是礦物,並且 PDP 權重很大,我們可能會對一些較大的頭寸保持耐心,特別是知道買家群體很強大,但買家群體將承銷礦產。由於該條帶較弱,我們不必在此出售資產,並且可能會耐心等待在未來幾年內出售一些較大的頭寸。

  • Neil Mehta - Analyst

    Neil Mehta - Analyst

  • And then on the flip side, Kaes, you've been very clear about using this asset to consolidate. You have an advantaged cost of capital even if it's undervalued and you are the logical acquirer of a lot of royalty acreage. Is the opportunity set available and interesting? And how do you weigh that against the intensity of integration around the Sitio asset that you'll need for the next couple of months?

    另一方面,Kaes,您已經非常清楚地說明如何使用這項資產進行整合。即使被低估,您也擁有優勢的資本成本,並且您是大量特許土地的合理收購者。機會是否可用且有趣?您如何權衡這一點與未來幾個月所需的 Sitio 資產整合強度?

  • Kaes Van't Hof - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Kaes Van't Hof - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. I think the integration is going to go pretty quickly. I think Sitio had a very clean business and some of the key employees are hopefully going to join us at some point at Viper. And so I think the integration won't necessarily be the problem. But I do think as you think about uses of capital, we want to be patient at the Viper level given that we've done two large deals in six months. And we expect those deals to be accretive, and we expect the market to reward those deals for being accretive, and that hasn't happened yet.

    是的。我認為整合將會進展得相當快。我認為 Sitio 的業務非常乾淨,一些關鍵員工預計在某個時候加入我們 Viper。所以我認為整合不一定是問題。但我確實認為,當你考慮資本的使用時,我們希望在 Viper 級別保持耐心,因為我們在六個月內完成了兩筆大交易。我們預期這些交易將具有增值性,我們也預期市場將對這些具有增值性的交易給予獎勵,但這種情況尚未發生。

  • And so I think we need to hit numbers and be aggressive on our buyback and let things settle out for a little bit before doing anything large or strategic right away. There certainly are packages we're very interested in. Most of those are held in private hands. So they're pretty patient. And so I think we need to show some -- a clean quarter or two pro forma for the Sitio and show that we're hitting our synergies and hitting our production targets and reducing our share count, all while paying a very large dividend.

    因此,我認為我們需要達到一定數字,積極進行回購,讓事情稍微平息一下,然後再立即採取任何大規模或策略性的行動。確實有一些套餐我們非常感興趣。其中大部分都掌握在私人手中。所以他們非常有耐心。因此,我認為我們需要展示一些——Sitio 的一個或兩個乾淨的季度形式,並表明我們正在實現協同效應,實現生產目標並減少我們的股票數量,同時支付非常大的股息。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Paul Diamond, Citi.

    花旗銀行的保羅戴蒙德 (Paul Diamond)。

  • Paul Diamond - Analyst

    Paul Diamond - Analyst

  • Just wanted to quickly touch base on -- so the 1.5 net debt target, once hit even without any asset dispositions, does that shift your hedge strategy at all? Do you feel a need to maintain current levels? Or could we see that moderate a little bit? Or how would you -- I guess, how do you think about that post hitting that target?

    只是想快速了解一下——那麼,1.5 的淨債務目標一旦達到,即使沒有任何資產處置,這是否會改變您的對沖策略?您是否覺得有必要維持目前水準?或者我們可以看到它稍微緩和一點嗎?或者你會怎麼樣──我想,你認為那篇文章是否達到了那個目標?

  • Austen Gilfillian - President

    Austen Gilfillian - President

  • Yeah, Paul, we've always kind of thought about our hedging strategy as locking in a certain amount of downside protected cash flow that even if things really go south, you have some level of protection and leverage isn't going to blow out on you.

    是的,保羅,我們一直認為我們的對沖策略是鎖定一定數量的下行保護現金流,即使事情真的變糟,你也有一定程度的保護,槓桿不會對你造成影響。

  • So I think we'll continue to hedge probably in this consistent form of the deferred premium puts. So really, just as debt goes down or net debt goes down, you just need to hedge less barrels to lock in the required amount of downside protected cash flow to solve for a cap on leverage.

    因此我認為我們可能會繼續以這種一致形式的延期溢價看跌期權進行對沖。因此,實際上,就像債務減少或淨債務減少一樣,您只需要對沖更少的石油來鎖定所需的下行保護現金流,以解決槓桿上限問題。

  • Paul Diamond - Analyst

    Paul Diamond - Analyst

  • Got it. Makes sense. Okay. And then just shifting a little bit. I know you talked about this a touch. But just in the back half of the year post Sitio close, I guess, how should we think about the -- that 75% of distributable cash to be split between the variable versus buybacks? I mean, there seems to be a pretty big dislocation in the equity right now. Is there -- are you thinking about leaning in more in that direction? Or I guess, how do you think about that for between now and year-end?

    知道了。有道理。好的。然後稍微移動一下。我知道您稍微談論過這一點。但就在 Sitio 關閉後的下半年,我想,我們應該如何考慮將 75% 的可分配現金分配給可變資產和回購?我的意思是,現在股權似乎有相當大的錯位。您是否考慮過朝這個方向進一步傾斜?或者我想,從現在到年底您對此有何看法?

  • Kaes Van't Hof - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Kaes Van't Hof - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. I mean, I think it's all going to be flexible, but there is a lot of cash and capacity to buy back shares here once we close the deal. I think we're just going to have to see how things unfold over the back half of the year, but that's the beauty of a pure free cash flow business that's actually growing is that there's capacity to do both. But I think today, I think you're hearing a strong message from us that we would lean into buybacks over a variable today.

    是的。我的意思是,我認為這一切都將是靈活的,但一旦我們完成交易,就會有大量現金和能力來回購股票。我認為我們只需要觀察下半年的情況如何發展,但純自由現金流業務的魅力在於它實際上正在成長,它有能力同時做到這兩點。但我認為今天,我認為你們聽到了我們發出的強烈訊息,即我們今天將傾向於回購而不是變數。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Derrick Whitfield, Texas Capital.

    德瑞克·惠特菲爾德,德州首府。

  • Derrick Whitfield - Analyst

    Derrick Whitfield - Analyst

  • For my first question, I wanted to focus on the Sitio acquisition. While it's hard to fully attribute stock performance to any specific development, VNOM has underperformed several of its peers since the announcement. Are there any aspects of the acquisition that you feel are underappreciated by investors?

    對於我的第一個問題,我想專注於 Sitio 收購。雖然很難將股票表現完全歸因於任何特定的發展,但自消息宣布以來,VNOM 的表現一直遜於其他幾家同行。您是否覺得此次收購的某些方面沒有受到投資者的重視?

  • Kaes Van't Hof - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Kaes Van't Hof - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. I mean, listen, I think the size and scale of the combined business is misunderstood, right? It's hard to model mineral businesses because you have a small interest in a significant number of wells. But I think if you combine the visibility we have with the Diamondback drill bit and the financial accretion associated with the trade, you start to see numbers go up.

    是的。我的意思是,聽著,我認為合併後的業務的規模和範圍被誤解了,對嗎?很難對礦產業務進行建模,因為您對大量油井的興趣很小。但我認為,如果將我們對 Diamondback 鑽頭的了解和與交易相關的財務成長結合起來,你就會開始看到數字上升。

  • And listen, our job is to make the business look cheap by executing on either growth or reduction in share count. And over time, the market is a weighing machine versus a voting machine, and these higher per share metrics tend to prove out to be the right way to run a business long term. So I think while we often get stuck in the malaise of the short term, the long-term path is very bright.

    聽著,我們的工作是透過增加或減少股票數量來讓企業看起來廉價。隨著時間的推移,市場變成了一台稱重機而不是投票機,這些更高的每股盈餘指標往往被證明是長期經營企業的正確方式。因此我認為,雖然我們經常陷入短期困境,但長期道路卻非常光明。

  • Derrick Whitfield - Analyst

    Derrick Whitfield - Analyst

  • Great. And then, Kaes, in past calls, Sitio management has highlighted the substantial investment it has made in back-office efforts to identify unearned payment of royalties. Kind of in thinking about the levers that you guys have to pull for accretion, how much of that exists within VNOM?

    偉大的。然後,Kaes,在過去的電話會議中,Sitio 管理層強調了其在後台工作中為確定未賺取的特許權使用費所做的大量投資。想想你們為了實現成長必須拉動的槓桿,VNOM 中存在多少這樣的槓桿?

  • Kaes Van't Hof - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Kaes Van't Hof - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • They've done some pretty interesting things on the automation side that we're really excited to bring into our business. I think they've had to do it out of necessity given the number of wells they have interest in, and that's why we have a lot of confidence that we'll be able to integrate that very quickly.

    他們在自動化方面做了一些非常有趣的事情,我們很高興將其引入我們的業務中。我認為,考慮到他們感興趣的油井數量,他們不得不這樣做,這就是為什麼我們非常有信心很快就能完成整合。

  • I mean, I think in general, right, a lot of the administrative functions throughout our business in E&P and in minerals, the AI revolution and machine learning are going to be two very important pieces to review 35,000 wells a month to make sure you're getting paid right, and I think it will be -- it will accrue to our shareholders' benefit long term as well.

    我的意思是,我認為總的來說,在我們勘探與生產和礦產業務的許多管理職能中,人工智慧革命和機器學習將是兩個非常重要的部分,每月審查 35,000 口油井,以確保您獲得正確的報酬,而且我認為這將 - 它也將從長遠來看為我們的股東帶來利益。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Aaron Bilkoski, TD Cowen.

    Aaron Bilkoski,TD Cowen。

  • Aaron Bilkoski - Analyst

    Aaron Bilkoski - Analyst

  • So your presentation outlines an expected 5.9% NRI in Diamondback-operated wells through 2029. I guess my question is, do you expect that NRI to be fairly consistent across those years? Or do you anticipate a higher NRI in 2026 and see that taper off in the later years?

    因此,您的簡報概述了到 2029 年 Diamondback 營運油井的預期 NRI 為 5.9%。我想我的問題是,您是否認為 NRI 在這些年裡會保持相當一致?或者您預計 2026 年的非居民印度人數量會更高,並在隨後幾年逐漸減少?

  • Austen Gilfillian - President

    Austen Gilfillian - President

  • Yes, Aaron, I think really the important metric is the net well count, and as we think about that, on the Diamondback operated side, it's really a function of two things. It's one, your exposure to total Diamondback gross activity levels, and then secondly, your NRI within those wells.

    是的,Aaron,我認為真正重要的指標是淨井數,當我們考慮這一點時,在 Diamondback 營運方面,它實際上是兩個因素的函數。首先,您暴露於 Diamondback 總活動水平的情況,其次,您在這些井內的 NRI 情況。

  • So we kind of laid this detail out with the drop-down given we have such increased alignment with the Diamondback development plan over an extended period of time given the overlap of that drop-down acreage. So you'll kind of see on slide 11, thinking about around 25 net wells per year over this time period.

    因此,我們透過下拉式選單列出了這些細節,因為考慮到下拉式選單面積的重疊,我們在較長一段時間內與 Diamondback 開發計畫的一致性有所提高。因此,您會在第 11 張投影片上看到,在這段時間內,每年大約有 25 口淨井。

  • I would say that certainly will be a touch front weighted. So if you think about '26 and '27, that will be biased to touch higher than that, and that's really going to drive a couple of thousand barrels a day of growth that we're talking about on an absolute basis. But really over a five-year period, it's going to be pretty consistent exposure to whatever Diamondback's development plan is going to be, and that really underscores the confidence we have in the long-term production growth outlook.

    我想說這肯定會是前部加權觸摸。因此,如果你考慮 26 年和 27 年,你會發現產量可能會更高,而且這實際上將推動我們所談論的每天幾千桶的成長。但實際上,在五年的時間裡,無論 Diamondback 的發展計畫是什麼,它都會受到相當一致的影響,這確實強調了我們對長期生產成長前景的信心。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Leo Mariani, Roth.

    利奧·馬裡亞尼,羅斯。

  • Leo Mariani - Analyst

    Leo Mariani - Analyst

  • Yeah. I wanted to touch base on the debt target here. Do you guys anticipate hitting that? It sounds like in the relatively near future. Do you think that's going to happen here in the first half of '26? And then could you also just talk about the strategy of sort of dividends versus buybacks? Obviously, it sounds like you want to step up the buyback here given the weakness in the shares on a relative basis. But do you also see room for dividend increases in the back half of the year given the accretion from the mergers?

    是的。我想在這裡談談債務目標。你們預計會實現這個目標嗎?這聽起來像是在不久的將來。您認為這種情況會在 26 年上半年發生嗎?然後您能否也談談股利與回購的策略?顯然,考慮到股價相對疲軟,你似乎想加大回購力道。但是,考慮到合併帶來的成長,您是否也認為下半年股利有成長空間?

  • Austen Gilfillian - President

    Austen Gilfillian - President

  • Yeah, Leo, I mean, I think it's reasonable to expect that the Board will look at the base dividend and increasing that sometime in the next quarter or two. On top of that, just free cash flow growth overall from production growth and the accretion of the deal starts to roll through as well. And I think importantly, this $1.5 billion net debt target and just saying, hey, we're not going to hold on to a bunch of cash on top of that number.

    是的,Leo,我的意思是,我認為董事會將考慮基本股息並在未來一兩個季度內增加股息是合理的。除此之外,產量成長和交易增值帶來的整體自由現金流成長也開始顯現。我認為重要的是,這個 15 億美元的淨債務目標,只是說,嘿,我們不會在這個數字之上再持有大量現金。

  • If we're at that net debt number, we're giving the cash back to shareholders, and I think that once that starts flowing through numbers, people are going to realize how much cash they're going to get back from Viper over the next couple of years is going to be significant.

    如果我們達到這個淨債務數字,我們就會將現金回饋給股東,我認為,一旦這些現金開始流入數字,人們就會意識到,未來幾年他們將從 Viper 獲得多少現金將是巨大的。

  • Leo Mariani - Analyst

    Leo Mariani - Analyst

  • Okay. And then on the M&A side, obviously, it sounds like you got a lot to still digest here. You haven't closed Sitio yet. You kind of made a comment here that perhaps you take it a little bit slower as you want to get maybe the stock price up a bit to kind of fully reflect the benefits of the acquisition.

    好的。然後在併購方面,顯然,聽起來你還有很多事情要消化。您尚未關閉 Sitio。您在這裡評論說,也許您會放慢速度,因為您想讓股價上漲一點,以充分反映收購的好處。

  • So I understand maybe you don't have as much desire in the very near term, but could you talk about availability of deals out there? Are you seeing packages that are transacting? Obviously, oil prices have settled down a little bit after a pretty tumultuous second quarter.

    所以我明白也許您在短期內沒有那麼多意願,但您能談談那裡有哪些交易嗎?您看到正在交易的包裹了嗎?顯然,在經歷了相當動盪的第二季之後,油價已經略有回落。

  • Kaes Van't Hof - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Kaes Van't Hof - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, it's been pretty quiet for us, but it's probably because we've been doing this large deal. I think most importantly, as I said earlier in the call, we did two transformative deals in six months. We expect our investors to make money on those deals, and that's why we're kind of signaling that we'd like to be patient on M&A and make sure our investors are made whole on the accretion that we all expect to come.

    是的,我們一直很平靜,但這可能是因為我們一直在做這筆大交易。我認為最重要的是,正如我之前在電話中所說的那樣,我們在六個月內完成了兩項變革性交易。我們期望我們的投資者能夠從這些交易中獲利,這就是為什麼我們暗示我們願意在併購方面保持耐心,並確保我們的投資者能夠獲得我們預期的成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn it back over to management for closing remarks.

    問答環節到此結束。現在我想將發言權交還給管理階層,請他們做最後發言。

  • Kaes Van't Hof - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Kaes Van't Hof - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, thanks, everybody, for participating in today's call, our second call without air conditioning, and I appreciate you making it shorter than the Diamondback call. Have a good day.

    好吧,謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議,這是我們第二次沒有空調的電話會議,我很感謝你們讓它比 Diamondback 電話會議更短。祝你有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.

    感謝大家參加今天的會議。該計劃確實就此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。