渥肯建材 (VMC) 2010 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Vulcan Materials third quarter earnings conference call. My name is Luisa, and I will be your operator for today.

(Operator Instructions).

I will now like to turn the call over to Mr. Don James, Chairman and CEO. Please proceed, sir.

Good morning. Thank you for joining this conference call to discuss Vulcan's third-quarter results. I'm Don James Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Vulcan Materials. Joining me today, are Dan Sansone, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, as well as Ron McAbee and Danny Shepherd, our Senior Vice Presidents for Construction Materials. Before we begin, let me remind you that certain matters discussed in this conference call contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Descriptions of these risks and uncertainties are detailed in the Company's SEC reports, including our most recent report on Form 10-K.

As you know last night after the market closed, we released our third-quarter earnings. In the third quarter, our EBITDA was $150 million, and our net earnings were $13 million. Cash earnings were $116 million, up slightly from the prior year's third-quarter, and approximately $103 million more than our reported net earnings. This continuing contrast between our cash earnings and reported net earnings, is primarily attributable to relatively high levels of non-cash DD&A charges, contrasted with lower levels of production.

The higher levels of DD&A come from two sources. First, almost $103 billion in Cap -- $1.3 billion in CapEx over the years just prior to the recession, from 2006 through 2008, which added reserves, increased production capacity, replaced equipment, and improved costs. And second, from the wind up of the Florida Rock assets though purchase accounting. One of the benefits of this higher CapEx in prior years, is that we will be able to produce substantially higher tonnages of aggregates, with relatively little additional CapEx above current levels. And one of the benefits of higher production levels going forward, will be to spread this DD&A over more tons, which will leverage our GAAP earnings. Dan Sansone will give you more details on our CapEx spending toward the end of our remarks today.

Before I discuss segment results supporting these third-quarter earnings, let me start by highlighting several underlying trends we are following, that could benefit our earnings opportunities going forward. Shipping trends in aggregates continue to improve, in the third quarter. Trailing 12 month aggregate shipments have been increasing since February. And asphalt and concrete, trailing 12 month shipments have been relatively stable since May and February, respectively.

Our continued focus on controlling costs and managing production levels to current demand, contributed to lower cost of sales in aggregates, excluding energy costs whose sequential improvement in material margins for asphalt, and to a reduction in selling general and administrative cost. Some aspects of our cost structure are outside our control in the short-term, such as energy and the impact of lower demand levels on production costs. However, we believe there's always room for improvement in controllable costs.

Overall, we're pleased with our continuing progress in managing our costs, our inventory levels and our cash earnings. Third quarter segment earnings in aggregates were $125 million, compared to $133 million in the prior year. Aggregate shipments declined to 2.6% from the prior year's third quarter, accounting for most of the year-over-year decline in segment earnings. All of the declining shipments can be attributed to a strike in July in Chicago, affecting our customer's employees for most of that month. aggregates pricing in the third quarter was in line with the prior year, reflecting wide variations across Vulcan-served markets. Many major markets realized price improvements from the prior year's third quarter.

Other markets have remain challenging due to competitive pressures arising from reduced demand, higher transportation costs, and in some cases from mix shifts. Excluding the impact of higher energy cost, unit cost of sales for aggregates declined 2% from the prior year. Demonstrating continued focus by our employees in running our plants in the most efficient manner possible. And the cost benefit of production levels that are now matching sales volume levels. The cumulative effect of reducing aggregates inventory levels over the past two years, allowed us to match production levels with sales levels in the third quarter, which contributed to the reduction in aggregates cost of sales. The average unit cost for diesel fuel increased 17 % in the quarter, reducing pretax earnings $4 million.

Segment earnings in asphalt were $8 million lower than the prior year, due in part to a 14% increase in unit costs for liquid asphalt and lower selling prices. The year-over-year increase in liquid asphalt cost, reduced asphalt earnings $6 million. Selling prices decreased 3% from the prior year, reducing segment earnings of approximately $4 million. Selling prices for asphalt mix generally lag increasing liquid asphalt costs, and were held in check due to competitive pressures.

On a sequential basis, unit material margins for asphalt have been improving since the first quarter, due to some improvement in pricing, and a relatively stable liquid asphalt cost. In the third quarter, unit material margins increased 10% on a sequential basis from the second quarter. Segment earnings in concrete declined $9 million from the prior year, due principally to a decline in selling prices. Cement earnings in the third quarter were a loss of $2 million, due primarily to lower selling prices.

Turning to our outlook, let me start by saying that while current construction environment remains challenging, our optimism that the worst is behind us continues to grow. Most GDP forecasts indicate further growth in the overall US economy. In past cycles, demand for aggregates has improved, as GDP has grown during the initial years of recovery. Additionally the gross state product of all Vulcan-served states has shown positive growth, since the second quarter of 2009, an indication economic recovery is underway.

As the general economy continues to recover, public construction particularly highways, continues to provide solid support for our aggregates demand. During September 2010, the Federal Highway Administration reported that approximately half of the $27 billion of total stimulus funds obligated for highways is yet to be spent. In August, the Congressional Budget Office forecast total outlays for highway construction for the current fiscal year ending September 30, 2011, increased 7% from the year just ended. This projected increase includes a 14% increase in outlays from the Highway Trust Fund as well as a continuation of stimulus funds.

This projected increase in outlays for the regular highway funding program reflects a catch-up in obligating, awarding, and spending. Following a decline that occurred during the months just before and following the expiration of the six-year highway bill last September 30. When state departments of transportation were operating with limited funding visibility, and limited contract authority. Both resolved with the passing of the HIRE Act in March of this year. The 14% increase in outlays from the Highway Trust Fund for the regular highway funding program this fiscal year. As well, as the projected increases in regular highway funding from the Highway Trust Fund through 2012, should continue to provide solid support for aggregates demand.

In Washington, we've been very pleased to see that the administration has now come out strongly, in favor of sustained transportation infrastructure spending. Calling for a multi-year highway bill is a key way to help lead the country out of recession and create jobs. In a significant and very positive report issued by the US Department of Treasury on October 11, of this year, the administration has made a compelling case for major infrastructure investment now and going forward. The report points to the long-term economic benefits of infrastructure investment, the disproportionate benefits received by the middle-class, and the strong pent-up demand from the public and private sectors. It also, emphasizes the high level of unemployment in the construction sector, which has been at almost twice the national unemployment level, and points to infrastructure investment as a key to creating and sustaining jobs.

The Treasury Department report entitled, An Economic Analysis of Infrastructure Investment, is available on the Department of the Treasury's website. It also notes that 19 out of 20 Americans are concerned about America's infrastructure, and that 84% support greater investment to address infrastructure problems. Our Company, and the entire infrastructure community must make this case to a new Congress. In particular, this quote from the Treasury report is a key, and I am quoting, "Americans have voted repeatedly for increased investment in transportation infrastructure. In 2008 alone, over 80% of the 59 transportation infrastructure projects proposed at local referendum are approved by the public. Even more striking is that over 98% of the funds requested for these projects were approved by the voting public."

In addition, major business organizations like the US Chamber of Commerce and the American Trucking Association support higher fuel taxes for highways to relieve congestion, improve transportation efficiencies, and create jobs. Private construction, particularly private nonresidential construction, remains the most challenging sector overall. On the positive side, trailing 12 month single family housing starts through September have increased 10% from the prior year. The rate of decline in private nonresidential construction contract awards has slowed. The rate of decline in trailing 12 month contract awards has slowed in each of the last three quarters. The start of a recovery in this end market will be influenced by employment growth, business investments, and lending activity.

Overall, pricing for our aggregates remain stable. A number of Vulcan served markets are realizing meaningful year-over-year price growth, while pricing in certain other markets has declined due to competitive pressures from weak demand, and the shifts in product mix. As a result, we expect pricing in the fourth quarter to approximate the prior year. In our asphalt business, material margins on each ton of asphalt mix sold have trended higher since the first quarter of this year, due to a relatively more stable cost environment for liquid asphalt. We expect this trend to continue in the fourth quarter.

In our concrete business we expect sales volumes in the fourth quarter to increase from the prior year's fourth quarter, due mostly to the timing of some large projects in Florida. We expect pricing to decline, due to competitive pressures. In our cement businesses, we expect fourth quarter segment earnings to approximate the prior year's results. Now, I would like to turn the call over to Dan Sansone, our Chief Financial Officer, who will make a few comments related to our outlook for SAG, debt reduction and liquidity. Afterwards, I will conclude our prepared remarks with a closing comment before taking your questions.

Thank you, Don. We expect SAG expense for the full-year of 2010 to approximate the prior year levels. There are, however, a number of the usual items in the SAG category that I would like to highlight. In the fourth quarter of last year, SAG costs included a non-cash charge of $8.5 million, representing the fair market value of donated real estate. We do not anticipate a similar item in the fourth quarter of 2010.

Additionally, we recorded a non-cash charge of $9.2 million for donated real estate in the first quarter of this year, and we currently do not anticipate any similar charges or transactions in 2011. The second significant item affecting SAG expenses is are major ERP project, which began in 2008, soon after the acquisition of Florida Rock. This multi-year project is replacing legacy systems and processes throughout the Company, consolidating back-office activities, and standardizing common processes and procedures. As of today, all of the Legacy Vulcan business units are operating on the new financial systems platform.

The Legacy Florida Rock division will transition on to the new platform in the first quarter of 2011. We will begin to implement the major non-accounting modules of the project early in 2011, with project completion anticipated in 2012. This initiative has had a material impact on our SAG expenses over the last couple of years. Annual project costs peaked in 2009, at approximately $13 million. The project costs in 2010 should be approximately $2 million lower than last year, reflecting lower design and implementation costs, and the beginning of the realization of cost reduction benefits. We expect a further reduction in net cost of approximately $6 million in 2011.

Interest expense for the full-year of 2010 is expected to be approximately $175 million, based on current levels of interest rates, and a reduced level of capitalized interest on capital projects. We expect to reduce total debt by $120 million by the end of 2010. Depreciation, depletion and amortization for 2010 will be approximately $385 million. We have carefully reviewed our capital spending requirements, relative to current demand levels. We now expect capital spending in 2010 to be approximately $100 million, down slightly from the $110 million spent in 2009, and down sharply from the $353 million spent in 2008.

The sharp decrease in capital spending in the last two years, results from lower production levels, as well as the higher levels of capital spending during 2006 through 2008, that Don mentioned in his opening remarks. During that three-year period, cumulative capital spending totaled approximately $1.3 billion. These projects added reserves, increased production capacity, upgraded mobile equipment fleets, and lowered production costs. Our aggregates plant and rolling stock were in very good condition going into this economic downturn. As a result, our capital spending needs have remained relatively modest. We have maintained the production capacity necessary to respond quickly and efficiently as the demand recovers. And Don will now pick up with some closing remarks.

In summary, we believe our business continues to get stronger as a result of our cost control efforts in this downturn, and our discipline approach to pricing, throughout the recession. We will remain diligent in our efforts to look for every opportunity to cut costs, and we look forward to the opportunity of getting the great leverage in earnings, that volume recovery will provide us. The underlying trends in trailing 12 month shipments have increased our optimism, that the worst of the severe downturn may be behind us.

We are in the process of reviewing our specific projections for next year, and will provide an outlook in February when we report our fourth quarter results. Our available production capacity, which as Dan pointed out, is in very good condition, positions Vulcan to participate efficiently and effectively, in an increase in Federal Highway spending projected by the Congressional Budget Office. By the second half of 2011, we expect that the continued growth in their overall economy, and an improving job market will begin driving an increase in private construction activity, accelerating the earnings leverage of the Company.

We're the clear leader in US aggregates industry, and are well positioned for significant participation in economic recovery, and in public infrastructure programs. I would like to reiterate our confidence in future sales and earnings growth for Vulcan. This confidence comes from our successful strategy to continue strengthening our aggregates-focused business, which has the compelling advantage of great locations in major US markets, that are expected to experience above average growth in aggregates demand for many years into the future. We thank you for your interest in Vulcan. Now if our operator will give the required instructions, we'll be happy to respond to your questions.

(Operator Instructions).

Your first question comes from Garik Shmois with Longbow Research. Please proceed

Hi, thank you, good morning. The first question on aggregate pricing, could you walk us through a little bit geographically, mainly California and Florida what you saw on pricing. And then secondly, it seems like pricing broadly speaking, in many of your markets does appear to be stabilizing. But if you could talk about the mix in your backlog, as you look at over the next several quarters, if there is any either positive or negative mix issues, that we should be aware of over the next several quarters, that would be helpful?

Generally, our pricing ranges with few exceptions from being up about 6% to being down about 10% across markets. I think you are correct that Florida and California have been the markets where the private construction has been hit hardest and longest. And those are the states, in which our pricing performance has been the weakest. Generally, markets where demand is stable and improving, also have stable and improving pricing. There is a pretty tight correlation between demand and pricing, and we believe as soon as we see demand firming up in some of the weaker markets, we'll see pricing opportunity come back. The second half of your question, Garik, was what?

On product mix, and if you look at your backlog, and if there is any mix issues that we should be aware one way or the other?

I think the only sort of -- and it's really not a mix issue, but the only significant thing is, as the initial stimulus projects get built and roll off, those were bid at very competitive pricing, and at a time as we have said, when the regular federal highway program was in limbo. And the only work coming out, the private sector demand was in the trough, and the original of stimulus projects got bid at very competitive rates. As those projects roll off, I think you will start seeing reported pricing improving.

Okay. And I just want to dig in on the CapEx a little bit. You did reduce your CapEx forecast for the year. Just wondering when volumes come back, how much volume can you absorb at these capital levels, before you have to start taking cost back into the system?

Well, as we said, our plant and equipment is generally in very good shape. I think, certainly as volumes come back, as we add 25 or 30 or 40 million tons of capacity -- of production, we would start needing to replace some plant and mobile equipment which we'll do, but as a result of the very large CapEx we had in the years prior to the downturn, I think we are in great shape. So CapEx will go up, but it won't go up nearly as high as annual DD&A.

Does your new capital forecast imply any change to your incremental -- on your view that the business can generate a certain incremental margin on the initial tonnage?

No, I think -- I think in this quarter, where we had volume growth, it reflected the incremental margins that we believed it should, which are in the 60% range.

And just my last question is on the asphalt business, just on volumes. I believe coming out of the last quarter, there was an expectation the second half of the year was going to deliver volume growth in that business. If you could talk about the volume decline in asphalt in the third quarter, if that was related to project delays, or there is anything else going on?

I think some of it is timing. Some of it is continuing weak asphalt demand in the private sector work. There is a lot of -- there is not a single -- there is not a single issue there. We are very pleased that our material margins, that is the spread between selling prices and material input costs continue to improve. As you know, they sort of hit cyclical lows earlier this year, as a result of the higher price of liquid asphalt, and the difficulty of passing that through in the asphalt mix selling prices. But those material margins are improving, and as we begin to see volume recovery, that should enhance earnings in that product line.

Okay. Thank you for your time.

Your next question comes from the line of Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.

Good morning.

Hi, Jerry.

Don, you're ready mix revenue per cubic yard was up sequentially for the first time in a while. Can you talk about whether October pricing was above your third quarter average, also can you touch on what kind of ready mix pricing trends you are seeing for your customers in areas where you are not vertically integrated? Thank you.

Whoa, that's a lot of questions. Ready mix pricing is still under pressure, ours and others. We are pleased to see that we expect our volume to be up, particularly in Florida, but it's related to some large projects that we booked earlier. Ready mix is much more heavily dependent on private construction, than aggregates and asphalt are. And I think ready mix will continue to have some pressure on pricing. We work really hard to recognize that our ready mix business is really tied to pulling our aggregates through, as well as our cement through. So we look at that business differently, than a pure ready mix producer might. But generally, pricing is going to be under pressure in ready mix, until private sector demand begins to stabilize and improve.

That's helpful. And on the asphalt side, you mentioned your gross margin per ton was going to be expanding in the fourth quarter. Can you comment on whether that is a function of liquid asphalt prices coming down or your pricing stabilizing? thank you.

Both.

So sequentially, should we be looking for asphalt price increases from 3Q levels?

Modest.

Okay. Thank you very much.

Your next question comes from the line of Kathryn Thompson with Thompson Research Group. Please proceed.

Hi Thank you so much.

Hi, Kathryn.

How are you doing today? I know that when you gave your guidance in yesterday's evening press release, and today that you didn't give aggregate volume guidance. But last quarter you gave second half aggregate volume guidance of flat to up 5%, which implied mid single digit volume growth in Q4. My question today was, was this omission of volume guidance for the aggregate group intentional, or do you expect mid-single digit volume increases in Q4 in that segment?

Kathryn, one reason volume guidance for aggregates in the fourth quarter is so difficult is, because it depends on when it turns cold, and when it starts raining and snowing in our cold weather markets, or when it gets too cold to pour concrete, or put down asphalt. So for us to be trying to predict aggregate volume in any meaningful way in the fourth quarter, we have to be trying to predict the weather patterns in our various markets. And that is just not something we are very clever at. Generally, we think demand is improving in highways and infrastructure, it's improving in housing, and it continues to decline although at a much slower rate in private nonres. And how that rolls of compared to weather in the fourth quarter, we're just -- it is tough to make that call in the short-term.

Okay. Moving to pricing, I know that in Q2 you indicated that long haul was somewhat of an impact on pricing, did this carry over into Q3?

Yes, in our -- we report freight adjusted pricing, and long haul transportation continues to have a cost escalation in the transportation piece. Fortunately, we're over time able to recover that in pricing. I think in Q2, we saw a more severe disconnect between the price spiking up, particularly related to fuel escalation clauses, and the ability to pass that through into the shipments going out of the yards. But I think that is a phenomea -- phenomenon that will adjust itself over time. And I think you saw to some extent adjust in the second quarter -- the third quarter, I'm sorry.

Yes, yes, I understood. And speaking of pricing, anything that you'd like to comment on in the aggregate groups in particular, about pricing as it's progressed over say the past, from three -- 30 days -- not 30 days, excuse me -- three to four months, has there been any specific changes in mix or geographic differences, other than what you commented on earlier in the call?

Well, the geographic differences have to do with states in markets where volumes are up, and what the average selling price is in those markets, and volumes in markets where volumes are down. And so there is always a geographic mix shift going on, because our pricing varies significantly from market to market, as you know. But that being said, I don't think there's anything dramatic about our pricing in this quarter compared to prior quarters. Our mix shift -- our product mix is not dramatically different, and our geographic mix -- it moves around some. But basically, I think we have just had a very disciplined approach to pricing, and are trying to provide quality and service to our customers and get paid for it. And that is our basic strategy.

Okay. You have $325 million in notes due December, and its our understanding that strength in the second half of the year is somewhat a factor in funding these notes. And our question today is, given the current market conditions, what is your understanding given the current market conditions, what is your strategy for paying off these -- this note?

Kathryn, we closed a $450 million term of in July this year with the intent of using those proceeds to fund the 325 maturity, as well as we pre-funded a $100 million term loan maturity from next year. So what we would do in the end of -- in December when that comes due, is either -- we will use available cash, and any balance will be met by issuing commercial paper and/or drawing on our bank lines.

Okay. That is helpful And my final question for today is, what are the primary drivers -- you had nice improvement -- sequential improvement in aggregate gross margins and fairly modest sequential improvement in (inaudible) just shy of 1% -- what was the primary driver for this improvement in gross margins?

Our aggregates cost of sales, ex energy was down by 2%. Our pricing remained relatively stable, and we -- in the markets, where we've got volume growth, we've got a very good leverage, in the 60 percent range. While volumes were down in some markets and up in others, where we got the up volume, we certainly got the nice contribution to our margin.

Okay. Great. Thank you so much for taking my questions, today.

Your next question comes from the line of Jack Kasprzak with BB&T. Please proceed.

Thanks, good morning, Don.

Good morning, Jack.

I wanted to ask about concrete as well. It looks like the sales were virtually identical from the second to the third quarter, and yet the gross loss was little -- about double, $5.6 million I guess to $10 million, this quarter, third quarter, so again, that is sequential comparison. So could you talk about what happened there, on the same amount of sales?

Pricing was weaker.

And the cement price sequentially also ticked up almost $3 a ton. Was -- I assumed there was no price increase in Florida, but so what is could have accounted for that, if you have any color?

I don't believe our cement pricing -- are you?

He is saying sequentially.

Oh, sequentially.

Right.

It had to be customer mix.

Yes, it is customer mix. And we are supplying -- we're supplying more of our own cement, but that comes with a longer transportation haul, which we net back out, So it's -- I don't believe there is any specific item that would stick out, it is just the various -- as Dan said, customer mix.

Got it. Okay, that does it for me. Thanks, Don.

Your next question comes from the line of Trey Grooms with Stephens. Please proceed.

Good morning, guys.

Hi, Trey.

Just one quick question, I guess kind of a broader question. Don, if you think about the Highway Trust Fund, and where we stand today, and I'd really like to get your input or opinion on kind of how this thing could play out if, we were to see -- or how it could change in the different scenarios of what could happen today, during the elections, if we saw Republicans taking control, or if Democrats kept it -- or if [Oberstar] was voted out, do you think something might get sped up in the lame duck session? Just to get your thoughts on that if you could.

Trey, I would love to see something happen in the lame duck session. I wouldn't bet on it. I think that is going to be short. And I would expect the current extension of contract authority and funding levels for highways will be further extended in the lame duck session, probably for six months. That is a guess, it could be shorter, it be a little longer. I think the real action though, is assuming that the Republicans take control of the house, which seems to be most people's projection, we'll have a new Chairman of the House Transportation Infrastructure Committee, and probably John Michael from Florida.

We believe, as I tried to indicate in my prepared remarks that the administration, particularly the Treasury Department is a very strong advocate for increased spending for infrastructure, and in particular highways, for all the reasons I outlined, and all the reasons stated in the report. This is really the first time, the administration has come out strongly, and said we need a new multi-year surface transportation bill. And we need to get on with it, because it's a key way to address unemployment, and end up with an economically efficient system when we get through with it.

And there - the Treasury, in particular, and Secretary Geithner, in particular seemed to be approaching this from a purely economic view, and not such a political view. Now roll over to Congress, the political issue is going to be whether the Republican majority in the house feels it now has a joint responsibility for the economy. And if -- and one of the things -- and I point -- I tried to emphasize this, one of the points, we have to be able to make, and we is not just our Company, but the entire transportation industry, is that voters support what I will call user fees, that are directly related to transportation improvements in their communities.

Over and over and over again, that spending, and that increased revenue is supported by voters. The point is, is that not all federal spending is bad. And there is public support as manifested through any number of activities for increased revenues, and increased spending for -- to relieve traffic congestion. The projections from the Congressional Commission that studied highway funding was $0.10 a gallon fuel tax will raise an incremental $20 billion a year. And it will cost the average American family about a $100 a year. And for that, they get all sorts of benefits, including being able to get home and to work faster, having much lower repairs to their automobiles caused by poor surface conditions. There is a tremendous amount of really good study and reports supporting it. We've just got to make the case that voters will support it, and that is our challenge in this new Congress.

Okay, Don, and appreciate your insight on that. And that is all I have on that. Thank you.

Thanks, Trey.

Your next question comes from the line of Adam Rudiger with Wells Fargo Securities. Please proceed.

Good morning, I wanted to ask the question about asphalt mix a little differently than already asked. You said that, normally there is a lag with the competitive environment -- has kept the ability to pass that increase in liquid asphalt on. I was wondering if you think that competitive environment will maintain that way, and the margin been improvement in asphalt mix will be solely due to lower input costs? Or do you think you will be able to pass some of those costs on when they increase, if they increase?

Well, I think the way to think about asphalt, is to look at the end markets. And obviously public infrastructure is a very large end market for asphalt, much more so than for concrete. And that is the one place we are seeing relatively strong growth in funding and demand. And as a result of that, assuming -- and the wild card here is what happens to liquid asphalt costs. But assuming stability in liquid asphalt costs, then we would expect material margins would continue to improve, as we are able to get somewhat higher prices for the mix. But the wildcard is the liquid asphalt input costs, that we have very little influence and control over.

We are seeing liquid asphalt producers for the first time in several years, being willing to commit to pricing for longer than a 30 day period, which gives us some more stability in getting work with a firm liquid asphalt pricing, and that is a phenomenon that we hadn't seen since probably three or four years ago.

Okay, so it sounds that -- so you think the competitive pressures you referenced in your press release will abate somewhat, as demand for asphalt increases, is that correct?

Yes.

And then secondly, real quickly, you said in your press release you attributed the overall decline in volume to the strike in Chicago. Do you think that will -- will that -- were those projects just canceled or were they delayed? Or if they are just delayed will they spill over to the fourth quarter, will that gives you an extra point or two in volume, year-over-year volume increases from that?

Some of the projects are moving forward, and we are seeing that. Some may get rolled over into 2011. I don't think there is any cancellation of the projects, it is really a timing -- a timing. We saw a little bit of recovery in the -- toward the end of the third quarter. This strike was in July and volumes were down hugely in July, because all of our customer operations were basically shut down. We saw some recovery in the volume in the latter two months of the quarter. And without being specific, I think it looks like some of that of volume is occurring in the month of October in the fourth quarter. And hopefully, hopefully those projects will be caught up, will continue to catch up, until cold weather hits in Chicago. And once cold weather hits, we expect a lot of our customers will close up for the year and go home, and then crank back up next spring when the weather improves. So how much of that gets caught up this year, really depends on how long the construction season lasts in Chicago.

Great. Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Betts with Jefferies. Please proceed

Yes, good morning. I've got a couple of questions, if I could please, Don. First question, I have to say I am struggling a bit with what obviously makes eminent sense, that better volume markets give you better pricing. I mean if you look at what your competitors reported today, it has kind of been the reverse. Their volumes are up by more, and yet their pricing is significantly weaker. I guess you obviously don't have the benefit of their internal data. But if I could ask you, to give me examples of which markets were up the 6%, and which were down the 10%, so to maybe help me close that loop? And then maybe one for Dan. The $120 million debt reduction, or total debt reduction, I am struggling with that a bit as well, Dan, because the way of a calculate debt, would be to use the short-term borrowings and the long-term debt, and that seems to be up about $18 million in the nine months, or am I or are you talking about net debt or am I just mis-calculating it? Thank you.

Mike, I think there is probably a misconception that because both Vulcan and Martin Marietta are somewhat headquartered in the Southeast, that we compete with each other in every market,on every job, and that is really far from the truth. We are -- our California, Arizona and New Mexico markets, they don't participate in. We don't participate in their mountain west markets, and their upper midwest markets like Nebraska and Iowa. Our big midwestern markets are Chicago and Milwaukee, and they don't participate in those markets there. They are in Indianapolis and Ohio, where we are not. We're -- northern Virginia is a huge market for us, they really don't participate in that market. Florida, we have local production in Florida, and Martin Marietta has virtually none. There is really a very small sort of overlap, when you get to where we both participate.

That being said, a lot of their volume growth seems to have come from shale, gas and energy projects and markets. We are not in the same markets they are in, but we are in some markets where that is a demand sector, and that has been significant. Remarkably in North Carolina, there are big highway programs in the Raleigh market, and in eastern North Carolina and western North Carolina is just sorted of out of cycle on highway projects right now. So there is probably a big difference in our North Carolina shipments, even though we don't -- we compete in relatively limited number of markets in North Carolina.

So I can't really -- I don't think you can conclude from the disparity in price volume between the two companies, that there is a market share shift going on in volume, as a result of pricing. It's really -- that's just not the case, at least from our view. So I can't tell you specifically, why their prices are down whatever it was, 3% or 4%, and their volume was up six compared to ours. We've got enough to worry about with our business, and not worry about their's.

So which are your strongest markets, Don, and if you can pick out an example?

Well, if you look say at Virginia, particularly Northern, Virginia is volume strong, pricing's good. If you look at Tennessee, Kentucky, volumes are good, and pricing's good. Look at San Diego, volumes are good. So we're -- there's just not a lot of -- there is just not a lot of places we can look at, and look at their price and volume, and our price and volume, and draw any conclusions from that. There is a pretty significant relationship in our business, between markets where volume is stable and growing, and we are able to get better pricing. And where, as contrasted where volumes are weak, and they are relatively weak in Florida stone, and in some of the markets in California, volume actually seems to be stabilizing and improving. So there are some disparities there, but in virtually every case, volume stability and improvement is going to provide a basis for price improvements.

And would Florida be one of your weaker markets, would it?

Yes.

Okay.

Mike, regarding debt, there is a couple of things that happened in the fourth quarter, that usually a -- and we expect it to be the case this year as well, a quarter in which we were a net generator of cash. Even though it's a slow period for shipments, we are pulling working capital down from the seasonally strong second and third quarters, particularly receivables. Secondly, the fourth quarter of this year would generate some additional cash for less exciting reasons. As a byproduct of the weak operating results,we have, and we are generating tax credits, and not paying income tax. And we are actually able to apply those credits against prior year taxes paid. So we will be bringing approximately $35 million from the Treasury back to the Company in the fourth quarter of this year for refunds from prior tax periods as well. So when you put that all into the mix, we will be reducing total debt, and not just long-term debt by about $120 million. And you are correct, your definition is the same as mine, it would be long-term, as well as short-term debt.

Okay, and just to follow up on that, Dan, the tax credit in the third quarter was due to that reason, was it?

No, no, the tax credit in the third quarter is on a book basis. And you have to essentially restate all of your numbers on a tax basis. And because of accelerated depreciation, and because of pension contributions that were made earlier in the year, we're actually generating sizable tax losses, that really get greater than those shown on the book earnings, which give us the ability to reap -- get those refunds.

Understood. That's great. Thank you very much.

Your next question comes from the line of Keith Hughes with SunTrust. Please proceed.

Thank you. Just a quick question in the release, You talk about the rate of decline in nonresidential contracts slowing, and you talked a little bit about oil and gas. Are there any other areas that stand out either substantially above or substantially below that trend you participate in nonresidential?

We don't -- we would not include the (inaudible) and drill platforms for oil and gas in private nonres we would include that in private infrastructure. So our nonres is our essentially buildings, both public and private. So that our infrastructure public and private is up, our highways are up. We are seeing that improvement in our numbers. The buildings side, the buildings we are seeing our public buildings, both from the BRAC work, base realignment and closing, government military buildings, a good bit of that. There is a lot of government building up in the Washington, Baltimore area.

They're hospitals, university buildings, schools, to some extent prisons. The place -- the place where there is continued weakness is in retail, office buildings, and to a lesser extent, hotels. While there are some bright spots there -- and just anecdotally a huge new retail shopping center just opened here in the Birmingham market last week. So it is not dead everywhere, but it is certainly slow. But I think we are seeing it bottoming. And I think that's going to be a real key for us probably by mid 2011, if the building sector of nonres has bottomed, then I think that is going to be a real key toward volume recovery going forward, because that is where the greatest pressure has been for at least the last two years.

Okay. Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Todd Vencil with Davenport and Company. Please proceed.

Thanks very much. Good morning.

Morning, Todd.

Most of my questions have been knocked out, but just a couple on the cash flow statement, it looks like there is about $35 million for the acquisition of the business?

Yes.

What was that?

We bought a concrete business in Atlanta. It ties in beautifully with our existing aggregates business, and with our Florida cement plant. Atlanta is the largest single cement market that can be reached efficiently from our cement plant in North Florida. And it's an opportunity to leverage, not only the recovery in cement demand in the northern half of Atlanta, but also let us pull for our aggregates, and primarily our own cement and get the margins associated with those products.

Congratulations. Are you going to have some detail of that in the Q? We will mention it.

We don't typically spend a lot of time talking about bolt-on acquisition. And we view this as a bolt-on acquisition, because it is an end market acquisition. I should say, we are not going to grow our concrete business, generally. But where we can pull our own cement through, or effectively pull our own cement through, it makes the economics look a whole lot differently, than just the basic concrete business.

Great. Great. And then the only thing I have left is, in Florida specifically, you all have talked a bit on the last call, about some sort of outside competition coming in there. Is the -- and I realize prices are under pressure there, as you said because volumes are still weak, but is the competitive situation changed any in the last three months or so?

Well, I would hope that we'll see stability in pricing in Florida. I don't think we made a comment about that, I think someone else probably did in their conference call. But we are happy with our market position and our distribution capabilities in Florida. We are able to serve that market from quarries in the state, as well as by ship from our big quarry on the Yucatan, as well as by rail from Georgia and Alabama. So we have a great supply network and distribution network to serve Florida. At some point, when demand there begins to recover, we are going to be in great shape, but it's a tough market today.

But in the long-term, there are very limited reserves in Florida, and there is a huge amount of growth potential. But it's going to take another time period. I guess we are pleased that housing starts in Florida are up in high double sort of 18% 19%, 20% to 21% on a trailing 12 months basis. So there is some life in Florida after all. And of course, the highway and stimulus projects in Florida are finally getting underway. They were among the slower states to get that rolled out. So it is really when nonresconstruction begins to resume, is going to be the key in Florida, as it is in most other markets. But residential, we think has turned the corner in Florida really more so, than in the rest of the country.

That's great. Thanks a lot for that, Don.

Your next question comes from the line of Jason Brown of KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed.

Good morning, guys. Just one cleanup question here. I think on the last call you talked about some non-core assets, I think a couple of quarries you were looking at to potentially sell, it doesn't look like you did much this quarter, but I want to get an update on what you might have marked for sale there?

I think the only thing we are holding for sale now is a small quarry and a concrete business in the Bahamas, that came with the Florida Rock acquisition. We don't need that, because we can supply, Florida with high quality limestone from our quarry on the Yucatan peninsula by ship very efficiently. That should -- we expect that to close any time. We did sell three quarries up in rural Virginia in markets that had been supported by textile and furniture manufacturing. And as you are aware, those industries are in great distress. And it just didn't make a lot of sense for us to continue to keep those in our portfolio.

We continue to look at opportunities where we may have some quarries that are not in markets that are key to us or strategic to us, where they may be more valuable to someone else and than they are to us. And that's not anything unusual. We will continue to pursue those. But it's difficult for us to sell operations, pay taxes on it, and make it make a lot of sense on an after-tax cash basis. That is one of the impediments to continuing to prune our portfolio but we continue to look at that, and will continue. And we will report them as they occur.

My other question was on the pension are you expecting to have to put any money into the pension in 2011?

No, we prefunded our pension through -- I think we -- through the end of 2012, 2013. (Multiple Speakers). So we don't see any need for -- we don't see any need for additional funding.

Of course, that is based on the actuarial assumptions that we use at the time. And obviously things could change between now and then. But right now, we have no anticipated contributions. And we don't see anything on the landscape that would invalidate the actuarial assumptions that were used in concluding that we didn't need to do anything until 2012 or 2013.

Okay, Great, thanks, guys.

Your next question comes from the line of Clyde Lewis with Citi. Please proceed.

Good morning, Don. Good morning, Dan.

Hi, Clyde.

Two if I may. One on diesel, it obviously has moved up a little bit since Q3 in terms of cost, can you do anything to mitigate the higher set of prices, or is that taken on the chain and hope to see some lower prices next year?

We buy diesel in nationwide contracts, but we don't hedge it. And we are not backward integrating into the refinery business, so there's not a lot we can do in the short-term. I mean we continue to monitor and manage on fuel efficiency in our plants. And every plant, every month, captures and our plants and every plant every month captures and reports, tons of production per gallon of diesel fuel. So that is a big -- one of our major key operating parameters that we measure and monitor. But there is not a lot we can do about the price of diesel fuel, as it moves around, other than to try and buy in large quantities and get as low a price as we can.

Can you remind me how much are likely to use this year, in terms of millions of gallons?

About 40 million gallons.

Okay. The second one I was on again, was, coming back to pricing --

We will be happy when we burning about 80 million, which we have done before. (Laughter).

Well, hopefully volumes will improve, and obviously in the PCA forecast, the new one, and Mr. Sullivan's busy cutting his forecast again for 2011 and 2012. The other question I had was on pricing, and what kind of competitive strategies do you see. I think you mentioned mainly the smaller private ones that have been more aggressive. Is that what you are seeing everywhere, or are you seeing some of the bigger guys holding their corner a little bit more as well?

Well, it's -- it's all of the above, I think. It's not so much that people are cutting prices, and we are having to match. It's just very difficult to get -- in this market to be able to go into our customer and justify a price increase, when they are having great difficulty maintaining the price of their product, i.e. concrete or asphalt mix. So there's -- we are not concerned about price cutting. We are concerned about volume recovery. And with volume recovery I think we will be able to resume some price improvement, hopefully well in excess of cost escalation in our production side.

But as I said, we're -- we maintain a lot of disciplined in pricing, and we are trying to provide quality, and service and reliability to our customers, and keep them competitive through this recession. And that is a big order. But our guys have done a remarkably good job of it, as you look at our pricing metrics compared to most everybody else in the industry.

Okay, thanks so much, Don.

Your next question comes from the line of Timna Tanners with UBS. Please proceed.

Yes, hi. Good afternoon.

Hi, Timna.

Two questions for me. One is you hinted at continued efforts to control costs. And I am wondering if you could detail what kind of effort you might be alluding to?

Running plants efficiently, that is bringing our workforce, and running hard when we are there, and closing up and going home. Moving crews around from plant to plant to achieve production efficiencies is another strategy that many of our operations utilize. Running plant at off peak hours, from the standpoint of energy costs, particularly electrical energy costs. If many markets if we run our plant at off-peak hours, we get a much lower electric utility rates, that if we run into the middle of the day in summer time.

SAG costs is an area which we are continue to focus, and Dan Sansone gave you some input on that. Going to our new ERP system has allowed us to begin to take, reduce overhead cost, and that project will continue to move forward in that area. Those are the principal. It is not one single place, it's really across-the-board from --as I mentioned about diesel fuel consumption, we monitor all sorts of labor productivity, that is tons per variable man-hour, tons per total man-hour. It is done on a plant by plant, and month by month basis, so there are not any secrets out there. The plants that are doing great jobs show up, and the plants that need some work are also showing up. And so, that is an emphasis for us. And it is small -- it's pennies a ton in 250 quarries, and that is what the focus is.

Okay, great. My other question is for Dan related to the investment grade rating. So Moody's in August knocked you down -- knocked the rating down another rung into the borderline with investment grade and junk. And I have just a couple questions surrounding that. I guess one is, if you can give us any color on that discussion. It sounds like if you are planning to perhaps draw down on commercial paper lines, and you are thinking that doesn't change for the time being, but maybe how important is it really to maintain investment grade ratings for Vulcan?

First, with respect to the discussions with the agencies, we are in there in a detailed fashion with them multiple times a year. We have an active dialogue with them. There is no secrets. They know our plans. They know our priorities, and they do a very good job of tracking the industry and the Company's performance. The issue with the agencies at the moment is, frankly, that our -- one single metric, that the debt to EBITDA has crept higher, as our EBITDA has drifted lower in this cyclical downturn. And that metric more than any, is the one that is under the greatest pressure with the agencies. And it is the one that probably contributes the most to the current rating, and to the threat of a downgrade.

I am certainly not in a position to speak with what the agencies will choose to do when they see these numbers, and when they see our numbers at the end of the year. But I think psychologically, we have a tendency to think of a movement from, and I will use the S&P rating just for simplicity, a triple B minus to a double B plus rating, from investment grade to non-investment grade has some sort of a huge step function. In terms of the financial markets, it's not nearly as a dramatic a change. Certainly a down grade is not something we're hoping for. And we are trying to do the reasonable things we can do, to manage for the current rating. But if we were to get downgraded, the incremental effect on our borrowing costs, in the grand scheme of things, is not very significant.

Put differently, I don't think you should expect us to go to draconian measures, to try to protect the current investment grade rating at the expense of -- at some extreme expense. The -- in the current term loan that we put in place in July of this year, I believe, that if we were able to get downgraded one notch, it would add 25 basis points to the borrowing spread over LIBOR. It's not the end of the world. If you look at indicative bond pricing in today's market, if we were a full notch lower by both agencies, it would add less than a 100 basis points in the indicative coupon rates. Again, and in today's market, that would bring in coupon rates that are still lower than the coupon rates that we have with the debt that was issued in 2007 and 2008. So yes, we worry about it. Yes, we communicate extensively with the agencies. And yes, we are very sensitive to it, but you won't see us turn the table upside down to protect it at all costs.

Okay. That's very helpful. Thank you.

Our next question comes from the line of Keith Johnson with Morgan Keegan. Please proceed.

Good morning, everyone.

Morning, Keith.

Just a couple quick questions. Just first off, I was trying to get an idea of what liquid asphalt prices did on a sequential basis, and I apologize if I missed it from your discussion earlier, going from 2Q this year to 3Q?

Hold on, just a second. The liquid asphalt costs in the third quarter were -- they averaged about $463, $464 a ton. In the second quarter, they averaged $478 a ton, give or take a little bit.

Okay, and then just one more quick one. Earlier in the call, you talked about the differential in pricing on the stimulus related contracts. That was a lot more competitive when they were bid, so the price points were a lot lower.

At least the first -- the first wave of those contracts. When bid back in the mid to late 2009, when housing and private nonres looked so gloomy, and the regular federal highway program was virtually in limbo, it was in that period that bidding got aggressive.

Okay. Is there a way you could maybe shed some color if you look at your volumes, how much are kind of tied -- and of this -- you cover a lot of geographic areas and a lot of contracts, but how much potentially are you tied to stimulus related projects versus non- stimulus?

We don't track it that way. And I don't think all stimulus related projects for us were at lower pricing at all. It just goes market by market. And there are some projects for various product mix reasons, we wanted to make sure we got the work, and so we did some of those aggressively. I think there are some of those in Texas, but they are working their way through the system. I can't tell you today how many still have work to go on them, But I think over time the shift away from those early stimulus projects will be beneficial to price -- our reported pricing..

Okay. Thanks I was trying to get an idea about how to think about rolling into 200 --

To quantify that, I can't. But it -- the trend will be I think improvement.

Okay. Thanks a lot.

We have no further questions in the queue. I would now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Don James for any closing remarks. Sir?

Well, thank you very much for your interest in Vulcan. We will be back with our fourth quarter and full-year press release, I believe in early February. We look forward to talking to you then. Thank you so much. Have a good day.

Thank you for your participation in today's conference.This concludes your presentation. You may now disconnect, and have a great day.