使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Vista's first quarter 2026 earnings webcast conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's call is being recorded.
各位好,感謝您稍候。歡迎參加 Vista 2026 年第一季財報網路直播電話會議。(接線員指示)敬請注意,今日會議將被錄音。
I would now like to hand it over to our first speaker, Alejandro Chernacov, Vista's Strategic Planning and Investor Relations Officer. Please go ahead.
現在我想把電話交給我們的第一位講者,Vista 策略規劃暨投資人關係主管 Alejandro Chernacov。請開始。
Alejandro Chernacov - Director - Strategic Planning and Investor Relations
Alejandro Chernacov - Director - Strategic Planning and Investor Relations
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. We are happy to welcome you to Vista's first quarter 2026 results conference call. I am here with Miguel Galuccio, Vista's Chairman and CEO; Pablo Vera Pinto, Vista's CFO; Juan Garoby, Vista's CTO; and Matias Weissel, Vista's COO.
謝謝。各位早安。我們很高興歡迎各位參加 Vista 2026 年第一季業績電話會議。我與 Vista 董事長暨執行長 Miguel Galuccio、財務長 Pablo Vera Pinto、技術長 Juan Garoby,以及營運長 Matias Weissel 一同出席。
Before we begin, I would like to draw your attention to our cautionary statement on Slide 2. Please be advised that our remarks today, including the answers to your questions, may include forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to be materially different from the expectations contemplated by these remarks.
在開始之前,我想請各位注意投影片第 2 頁的警示聲明。敬請留意,我們今天的發言(包含對各位提問的回答)可能包含前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受到各項風險與不確定性影響,可能導致實際結果與本次發言所預期者出現重大差異。
Our financial figures are stated in US dollars and in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards, IFRS. However, during this conference call, we may discuss certain non-IFRS financial measures, such as adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income. Reconciliations of these measures to the closest IFRS measure can be found in the earnings release that we issued yesterday. Please check our website for further information.
我們的財務數據以美元呈列,並依據國際財務報導準則(IFRS)編製。然而,在本次電話會議中,我們可能會討論某些非 IFRS 財務衡量指標,例如調整後 EBITDA 與調整後淨利。這些指標與最接近之 IFRS 指標的調節表,可在我們昨日發布的財報新聞稿中查閱。更多資訊請參考我們的網站。
Our company is a sociedad anónima bursátil de capital variable, organized under the laws of Mexico, registered in the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores and the New York Stock Exchange. Our tickers are VISTA, in the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores and VIST in the New York Stock Exchange.
本公司為可變資本的上市股份公司(sociedad anónima bursátil de capital variable),依墨西哥法律設立,並於墨西哥證券交易所(Bolsa Mexicana de Valores)及紐約證券交易所上市。我們在墨西哥證券交易所的股票代號為 VISTA,在紐約證券交易所的股票代號為 VIST。
I will now turn the call over to Miguel.
現在我把電話交給 Miguel。
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Ale. Good morning, and welcome to this earnings call. During the first quarter of 2026, we made solid progress in our annual work program on the back of a robust new well productivity. Total production was 135,000 BOEs per day, up 67% year-over-year. Oil production was 117,000 barrels per day, an increase of 68% compared vis-a-vis the previous year. Total revenues during the quarter were $694 million, 58% above the same quarter of last year. Lifting cost was $4.3 per BOE, 8% below year-over-year.
謝謝,Ale。各位早安,歡迎參加本次財報電話會議。2026 年第一季,在新井生產力強勁的帶動下,我們在年度工作計畫上取得穩健進展。總產量為每日 135,000 桶油當量(BOE),年增 67%。原油產量為每日 117,000 桶,較去年同期增加 68%。本季總營收為 6.94 億美元,較去年同期高出 58%。開採成本(lifting cost)為每 BOE 4.3 美元,較去年同期下降 8%。
Capital expenditure was $391 million, driven by a strong progress in new well activity during the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $451 million, an interannual increase of 64%. Net income was $108 million, leading to earnings per share of $1 during the quarter. Free cash flow was minus $341 million, impacted by $331 million of nonrecurring items, of which $206 million corresponded to the initiation of VEISA operation on a delivered basis.
資本支出為 3.91 億美元,主要受本季新井作業強勁推進所帶動。調整後 EBITDA 為 4.51 億美元,年增 64%。淨利為 1.08 億美元,使本季每股盈餘(EPS)為 1 美元。自由現金流為 -3.41 億美元,主要受到 3.31 億美元一次性項目影響,其中 2.06 億美元與 VEISA 以到岸交付(delivered basis)方式啟動營運相關。
Without these nonrecurring items, free cash flow in the quarter would have been almost neutral. Finally, our net leverage ratio at quarter-end was 1.7 times adjusted EBITDA. During Q1, 2026, we tied in 23 wells -- 12 in Bajada del Palo Oeste, 4 in Bajada del Palo Este, and 7 net wells in La Amarga Chica.
若排除上述一次性項目,本季自由現金流將幾乎持平。最後,本季末淨槓桿比率為調整後 EBITDA 的 1.7 倍。2026 年第一季,我們完成 23 口井的接管投產(tie-in)——其中 Bajada del Palo Oeste 12 口、Bajada del Palo Este 4 口,以及 La Amarga Chica 淨 7 口井。
This represents very good progress compared to our guidance of 80 to 90 wells for the full year. Solid well productivity of the tie-in wells drove a material production increase from 127,400 BOEs per day in January to 143,200 BOEs per day in March. Total production during Q1 averaged 134.7 BOEs per day. This represents an interannual increase of 67%, reflecting organic growth and our larger scale after the acquisition of La Amarga Chica. Oil production was 116,700 barrels per day, 68% higher year-over-year. Gas production increased 62% on an interannual basis. In Q1 2026, total revenues were $694 million, 58% above the previous year, driven by a solid increase in oil production, which more than offset lower oil prices.
相較於全年 80 至 90 口井的指引,這代表非常良好的進度。這些接管投產井的穩健生產力,帶動產量自 1 月每日 127,400 BOE 提升至 3 月每日 143,200 BOE。第一季平均總產量為每日 134.7 BOE,年增 67%,反映有機成長以及收購 La Amarga Chica 後規模擴大。原油產量為每日 116,700 桶,年增 68%。天然氣產量年增 62%。2026 年第一季總營收為 6.94 億美元,較去年同期增加 58%,主要受原油產量大幅提升帶動,足以抵銷油價下跌的影響。
Oil exports more than doubled year-over-year, reaching 7.2 million barrels in the quarter, representing 67% of our total sales volume. Realized oil price in Q1 was $60.1 per barrel on average, down 12% on an interannual basis, and up 2% on a sequential basis, in both cases driven by Brent. We sold 100% of oil volumes at export parity prices, both domestically and internationally. Higher oil prices owing to war in the Middle East had a minor impact on Q1 revenues, as we had mostly locked in March prices when the conflict started in February 28. We expect higher oil prices to significantly boost adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow during Q2 2026 and onwards.
原油出口量較去年同期增加逾一倍,本季達 720 萬桶,占我們總銷售量的 67%。第一季平均實現油價為每桶 60.1 美元,年減 12%,季增 2%,兩者皆主要受布蘭特(Brent)影響。我們在國內與國際市場均以出口平價(export parity)價格銷售 100% 的原油量。中東戰事推升油價對第一季營收影響有限,因為衝突於 2 月 28 日開始時,我們多數已鎖定 3 月價格。我們預期較高油價將自 2026 年第二季起顯著推升調整後 EBITDA 與自由現金流。
In Q1 (sic - Q4), lifting cost was $4.3 per BOE, 8% below the same quarter of last year, reflecting our low-cost asset base and fixed-cost dilution as we continue to gain scale. Selling expenses were $3.8 per BOE, down 41% on an interannual basis, mainly driven by the elimination of oil trucking as of the end of Q1 2025.
在第一季(原文誤植為 Q1,應為 Q4),開採成本為每 BOE 4.3 美元,較去年同期下降 8%,反映我們低成本資產基礎,以及隨規模擴大而帶來的固定成本攤薄。銷售費用為每 BOE 3.8 美元,年減 41%,主要因自 2025 年第一季末起取消原油卡車運輸。
Adjusted EBITDA during the quarter was $451 million, 64% higher interannually, mainly driven by the consolidation of 50% working interest in La Amarga Chica and organic production growth in our core development hub, which more than offset lower oil prices. On a sequential basis, adjusted EBITDA increased 2%, driven by higher realized oil prices. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 65%, up 3% points compared to the same quarter of last year, driven by lower export duties, selling expenses, and lifting costs, which offset lower oil prices.
本季調整後 EBITDA 為 4.51 億美元,年增 64%,主要受 La Amarga Chica 50% 工作權益(working interest)併表,以及我們核心開發樞紐的有機產量成長所帶動,足以抵銷油價下跌影響。就季比而言,調整後 EBITDA 增加 2%,受實現油價上升帶動。調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 65%,較去年同期提高 3 個百分點,主要因出口關稅、銷售費用與開採成本下降,抵銷了油價下跌。
In Q1 2026, cash flow from operating activities was $86 million, mostly impacted by two one-off negative items. First, a working capital impact of $206 million as a consequence of ramping up our trading operation, which moved a large part of our export from FOB to delivered basis and at a higher Brent price. Second, an outflow of $46 million corresponding to a tax payment in Mexico, which has been booked in previous quarters. Cash flow used in investing activities was $427 million, reflecting accrued CapEx of $391 million, a decrease in CapEx-related working capital of $53 million, and the $80 million deposit related to the Equinor acquisition.
2026 年第一季,營運活動現金流為 8,600 萬美元,主要受到兩項一次性負面因素影響。第一,因擴大交易(trading)營運,導致營運資金影響 2.06 億美元;我們將相當部分出口由 FOB 轉為到岸交付(delivered basis),且適用較高的布蘭特價格。第二,4,600 萬美元的現金流出,係墨西哥稅款支付,該稅款已於前幾季入帳。投資活動使用的現金流為 4.27 億美元,反映應計資本支出 3.91 億美元、與資本支出相關營運資金減少 5,300 萬美元,以及與收購 Equinor 相關的 8,000 萬美元訂金。
As a result, free cash flow was minus $341 million during the quarter. Net of the working capital, one-off impacts, and the Equinor deposit, recurring free cash flow was minus $10 million during the quarter. These impacts were expected and do not change our positive free cash flow forecast for the year, excluding payment to Equinor. Additionally, as we will show in the following slide, free cash flow is forecast to be materially higher than our original expectations.
因此,本季自由現金流為 -3.41 億美元。若扣除營運資金、一次性影響以及 Equinor 訂金,本季經常性自由現金流為 -1,000 萬美元。上述影響皆在預期之內,且不改變我們對全年(不含支付 Equinor 款項)的正向自由現金流預測。此外,如我們將在下一張投影片所示,自由現金流預測將顯著高於我們原先的預期。
Cash flow from financing activities were $118 million, driven by proceeds from borrowings for $590 million, partially offset by the repayment of borrowings for $130 million and the interest payments of $27 million. Finally, our cash position remains very strong, standing at $615 million at the end of the quarter. Our net leverage ratio stood at 1.7 times adjusted EBITDA.
籌資活動現金流為 1.18 億美元,主要來自借款取得款項 5.90 億美元,部分被償還借款 1.30 億美元及利息支付 2,700 萬美元所抵銷。最後,我們的現金部位仍非常強勁,季末為 6.15 億美元。淨槓桿比率為調整後 EBITDA 的 1.7 倍。
Today, we are updating our annual guidance to reflect the impact of robust production performance, as well as a more constructive view of oil prices. Based on the solid progress of our new well campaign, with 23 tie-ins to date, and robust productivity, we are increasing our full year production guidance from 140,000 to 143,000 BOEs per day, more than 1 million barrels of oil equivalent for the year. Importantly, our CapEx guidance remains unchanged.
今天,我們更新年度指引,以反映強勁的產量表現,以及對油價更為建設性的看法。基於新井計畫的穩健進展(迄今已完成 23 口井接管投產)與強勁生產力,我們將全年產量指引由每日 140,000 提高至每日 143,000 BOE,全年增加逾 100 萬桶油當量。重要的是,我們的資本支出指引維持不變。
We forecast to spend between $1.5 billion and $1.6 billion of CapEx in 2026. Considering the current oil price volatility, we are showing different scenarios for Q2 through Q4, $75, $85, and $95 Brent. Based on this new production and oil price assumptions, we are forecasting a material increase in our financial metrics.
我們預估 2026 年的資本支出(CapEx)將介於 15 億至 16 億美元之間。考量目前油價波動,我們針對第二季至第四季提供不同情境:布蘭特(Brent)每桶 75、85 與 95 美元。基於新的產量與油價假設,我們預期公司的財務指標將出現顯著提升。
In the $85 per barrel scenario, our adjusted EBITDA guidance increased to $2.6 billion, an improvement of $700 million from our previous guidance. Assuming $95 Brent for Q2 through Q4, adjusted EBITDA will be $2.9 billion. And at $75 Brent, it will be $2.3 billion. Our 2026 free cash flow guidance increased to $700 million, assuming our base case of $85 Brent in Q2 through Q4. This is $0.5 billion more than in the original guidance. Assuming $75 for the same period, free cash flow for the year will be $400 million, whereas at $95, it will be $1 billion of free cash flow for the year.
在每桶 85 美元的情境下,我們的調整後 EBITDA 指引上調至 26 億美元,較先前指引增加 7 億美元。若第二季至第四季假設布蘭特為 95 美元,調整後 EBITDA 將為 29 億美元;若為 75 美元,則為 23 億美元。我們 2026 年自由現金流指引在第二季至第四季以布蘭特 85 美元為基準情境下上調至 7 億美元,較原始指引多 5 億美元。若同期間假設為 75 美元,全年自由現金流將為 4 億美元;若為 95 美元,全年自由現金流將達 10 億美元。
This updated guidance does not reflect the closing of Equinor Argentina acquisition. Last week, we completed all the conditions precedent to close the transaction. We expect closing to occur in early May, and guidance will be updated probably after. On a preliminary basis, after consolidating the acquired assets, we forecast 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to increase to $3 billion, assuming $85 Brent for Q2 to Q4.
這份更新後的指引尚未反映 Equinor 阿根廷收購案的交割。上週我們已完成交割所需的所有先決條件。我們預期將於 5 月初完成交割,並可能在之後更新指引。初步而言,在併入所收購資產後,若第二季至第四季以布蘭特 85 美元為假設,我們預估 2026 年調整後 EBITDA 指引將提高至 30 億美元。
To conclude this call, and before we move to Q&A, I will make some closing remarks. Solid execution of our annual work program delivered material production growth during the quarter. Based on our production performance and a more constructive view on oil prices, we have updated our 2026 guidance, which now reflects more production as well as a material improvement to adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow projections.
在結束本次電話會議並進入問答之前,我做幾點結語。本季我們年度工作計畫的穩健執行帶來了顯著的產量成長。基於我們的產量表現以及對油價更為正向的看法,我們已更新 2026 年指引;新指引反映更高的產量,並且調整後 EBITDA 與自由現金流的預估也有顯著改善。
Our new scale, following the execution of two important M&A transactions that add up to our 70,000 BOEs per day, place us in an excellent position to benefit from this positive oil pricing cycle. We expect a significant boost to adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow as of Q2 2026. This additional cash generation will allow us to strengthen our balance sheet by significantly reducing our leverage ratios during 2026, emerging from this price cycle as a strong and more flexible company.
在完成兩筆重要的併購交易後,我們的規模提升,新增合計達每日 70,000 桶油當量(BOE)的產量,使我們處於極佳位置,可受惠於這一波正向的油價循環。我們預期自 2026 年第二季起,調整後 EBITDA 與自由現金流將顯著提升。這些額外的現金創造將使我們能在 2026 年大幅降低槓桿比率、強化資產負債表,並在本輪價格循環結束後,以更強健且更具彈性的公司姿態走出來。
Before we move to Q&A, I would like to thank all our employees for their hard work during the quarter. Operator, we can now move to Q&A.
在進入問答之前,我想感謝所有員工在本季的辛勤付出。接線員,我們現在可以進入問答。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(接線員指示)
Leonardo Marcondes, Bank of America.
Leonardo Marcondes,美國銀行(Bank of America)。
Leonardo Marcondes - Analyst
Leonardo Marcondes - Analyst
Hi, everyone. Thank you for picking my questions. So, my question here is regarding the revision of the guidance for production. Could you walk us through the main drivers behind the increase in this year's production guidance? Given that CapEx remains unchanged, what is effectively enabling this uplift? Should we attribute it mainly due to better-than-expected well productivity? Thank you very much.
各位好,謝謝讓我提問。我這邊的問題是關於產量指引的修訂。能否請你們說明今年產量指引上調的主要驅動因素?在資本支出(CapEx)維持不變的情況下,究竟是什麼有效支撐了這次上修?我們是否應主要歸因於單井生產力優於預期?非常感謝。
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Hi, Leonardo, thanks for the question. Yes. Look, I think there's two things. One, and the more important, is that we feel super confident due to the results of the 23 wells that we connected in Q1. All of them have very robust productivity. So we decided, basically, that we will up 2026 as you saw from 140 to 143 barrels of oil equivalent per day, that basically adds 1 million barrels during 2026.
嗨,Leonardo,謝謝你的問題。是的。我想主要有兩點。第一點、也是更重要的一點,是我們對第一季接管並連接的 23 口井的結果非常有信心;它們的生產力都非常強勁。因此我們基本上決定將 2026 年的指引如你所見從每日 140 提高到每日 143(桶油當量),這在 2026 年大約會增加 100 萬桶的產量。
If you go and try to understand a bit the quarter breakdown, I think you have to expect that Q2 will be around the production level that we are recording now in March, and then progressively, you see increases in Q3 and in Q4 that will lead us to a total of 143,000 barrels of oil per day average for the year. And as I mentioned in the presentation, this does not include the consolidation of Equinor assets. Thanks for the question. Thanks for the question.
如果你去看並試著理解各季的拆分,我認為你應該預期第二季大約會在我們目前 3 月所記錄的產量水準附近,然後在第三季與第四季逐步增加,最終使我們全年平均達到每日 143,000 桶原油的水準。如同我在簡報中提到的,這還不包含併入 Equinor 資產。謝謝你的問題。謝謝你的問題。
Leonardo Marcondes - Analyst
Leonardo Marcondes - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Guilherme Martins, Goldman Sachs.
Guilherme Martins,高盛(Goldman Sachs)。
Guilherme Martins - Analyst
Guilherme Martins - Analyst
Thank you for taking my question. I have a quick one on capital allocation. I understood you guys have maintained your CapEx guidance for the year despite the scenario of higher oil prices since your last Investor Day last year, right? Having said this, what should we think in terms of capital allocation this year? Miguel, you mentioned the company could use this additional cash flow from higher oil prices to pay down debt, right? What is the target net debt to EBITDA we should think of? Thank you.
謝謝讓我提問。我有一個關於資本配置的簡短問題。我理解你們在去年投資人日之後、即便油價情境較高,你們仍維持今年的資本支出(CapEx)指引不變,對嗎?在此情況下,我們今年應如何看待資本配置?Miguel,你提到公司可以利用油價上升帶來的額外現金流來償還債務,對嗎?我們應該以什麼樣的淨負債/EBITDA 目標來思考?謝謝。
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Guilherme, for the question. The answer is in line with what you mentioned. We should -- you should go back and we should go back to the capital allocation framework that we've been basically commenting for the last few years. We used our balance sheet to close 70,000 barrels of oil per day in acquisitions when you take in consideration the acquisition of Petronas and Equinor.
謝謝你,Guilherme,這個問題。答案與你提到的方向一致。你應該回顧、我們也應該回到我們過去幾年一直在說明的資本配置框架。我們運用資產負債表完成了合計每日 70,000 桶原油產量的收購,若把 Petronas 與 Equinor 的收購一併考量的話。
Now that we enter in a higher oil price scenario and that we almost doubled the production in the last year, we believe that we should deleverage using that momentum that we are living and regain financial flexibility, the one that we had prior to the acquisition. That means for us going back to around the 1x net leverage ratio we said by year-end.
現在我們進入較高油價的情境,而且過去一年我們的產量幾乎翻倍,我們認為應該趁著目前這股動能去降低槓桿、重新取得財務彈性,也就是回到收購之前我們所擁有的彈性。對我們而言,這代表在年底前回到我們所說的大約 1 倍淨槓桿比率。
Additionally, we said on Tuesday, we announced that the shareholders approved the extension of the share buyback plan for $150 million for 2026. So you also should assume that we will use the cash during this year to complete that acquisition of the buyback. So that is pretty much how you should think of the year. So you're correct, our priority now will be deleveraging.
此外,我們在週二也提到並宣布,股東已核准將 2026 年 1.5 億美元的庫藏股回購計畫延長。因此你也應該假設我們今年會動用現金來完成該回購計畫。大致上你可以用這樣的方式來看今年的資本配置。所以你說得沒錯,我們目前的優先事項將是去槓桿。
Guilherme Martins - Analyst
Guilherme Martins - Analyst
Understood. Thank you.
了解,謝謝。
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
You're welcome.
不客氣。
Operator
Operator
Bruno Montanari, Morgan Stanley.
Bruno Montanari,摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)。
Bruno Montanari - Analyst
Bruno Montanari - Analyst
Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to explore a little bit more the pricing situation, Miguel. You mentioned that you were unable to capture the full benefits in the first quarter because you closed the prices ahead of the March rally. So can you comment on what you have been able to secure now in the beginning of Q2? And if there is any commercial strategy change that could allow you to capture more spot prices without eventually fixing the prices one month ahead? Thank you very much.
各位午安,謝謝讓我提問。Miguel,我想再多探討一下定價情況。你提到第一季你們無法完全掌握油價上漲的好處,因為你們在 3 月那波上漲之前就先把價格鎖定了。那你能否評論一下你們在第二季初目前已經能鎖定到什麼水準?以及是否有任何商業策略上的調整,能讓你們更能掌握現貨價格,而不必在一個月前就把價格固定?非常感謝。
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, Thank you, Bruno, for the question. A lot of noise in the line, but I think I managed to catch the question. So first, I would like to say that we are not changing our commercial strategy. You are going to see that we capture 100% of the high oil prices starting in Q2. There is always part of the oil sales, as you know, of the next month, which have locked-in in advance. We've been doing that for many years. The rationale has always been working capital management.
好的,謝謝你,Bruno,這個問題。線路雜音有點多,但我想我有聽到你的問題。首先我要說,我們不會改變商業策略。你會看到我們從第二季開始能 100% 反映較高的油價。如你所知,原油銷售中總有一部分是針對下個月的量,會提前鎖定價格;我們多年來一直都是這樣做。其背後的理由一向是營運資金管理。
As we said in the presentation, we sold essentially all the March volume before the conflict in the Middle East started, and the price of such a sale was locked in previous to the event. As of today, less than one-third of Q2 production is priced at an average price of around $90 Brent, while the rest of the production will continue to price at the current and future price levels. So summarizing, for that, we are exposed to full Brent volatility for the rest of the volume that we have not yet closed. So basically, no change in the strategy and also no change in the practice of locking in one month ahead that we are selling.
如同我們在簡報中所說,我們在中東衝突開始之前就已經把 3 月的量幾乎全部賣出,而該筆銷售的價格也在事件發生前就已鎖定。截至今天,第二季產量中不到三分之一已按約每桶約 90 美元布蘭特的平均價格定價,其餘產量將持續依目前與未來的價格水準定價。總結來說,對於尚未結價的其餘量,我們將完全暴露於布蘭特價格波動。因此,策略不變,也不改變我們提前一個月鎖定所售原油價格的做法。
Bruno Montanari - Analyst
Bruno Montanari - Analyst
Thank you, Thank you very much.
謝謝,非常感謝。
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
You're very welcome.
不客氣。
Operator
Operator
Daniel Guardiola, BTG Pactual.
Daniel Guardiola,BTG Pactual。
Daniel Guardiola - Analyst
Daniel Guardiola - Analyst
Hi, good morning, Miguel and Tim, and thanks for the presentation. I have a question on cost inflation, especially considering the current environment of high oil prices. I wanted to ask if you've seen any early signs of service cost inflation in rigs, frac crews, logistics, sand, et cetera. And how should we think about the balance going forward between pricing tailwinds and potential cost pressure? And to what extent do you believe your efficiency gains can somehow offset this potential inflation? So that would be my question.
嗨,早安,Miguel 和 Tim,謝謝簡報。我有一個關於成本通膨的問題,特別是在目前油價偏高的環境下。我想請問你們是否已看到服務成本通膨的早期跡象,例如鑽機、壓裂團隊、物流、砂等。未來我們應如何看待價格利多與潛在成本壓力之間的平衡?以及你們認為效率提升在多大程度上能抵消這些潛在的通膨?以上是我的問題。
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Daniel, for the question. A very good question. So first of all, probably the best thing for me to say and to clarify is that we have not had any tariff change, okay? And we will not allow any tariff change. Now the existing contracts, some of them, I would say many of them, are just using gasoline prices. So we are seeing some tariff adjustment on those cases, we could consider inflation. We are also seeing some impact on the peso component due to the flat FX.
謝謝你,Daniel,提出這個問題。這是個非常好的問題。首先,我想說、也想澄清的是,我們沒有任何關稅變動,好嗎?而且我們也不會允許任何關稅變動。至於既有合約,其中有一些——我會說很多——是以汽油價格作為基準。因此在那些情況下,我們確實看到一些費率調整,也可以視為通膨因素。我們也看到由於匯率持平,披索(peso)組成部分受到一些影響。
Now saying all that, and as you mentioned, we have a very solid cost reduction plan in place. So the project that we are executing will allow us to offset most of those effects, so we are on track, and we are basically confirming our guidance of $11.7 million for drilling and completion cost per well, and also the $4.3 that we mentioned in terms of lifting costs. So we are super confident. Yes, we are seeing some pressure or adjustment on the contract due to the price of gasoline, but the plan that we have in place will allow us to offset that small impact.
在說完這些之後,正如你提到的,我們已經有一個非常扎實的降本計畫在執行中。因此,我們正在推進的專案將使我們能夠抵消大部分這些影響,我們進度如期,並且基本上確認我們的指引:每口井鑽井與完井成本為 1,170 萬美元,以及我們提到的舉升成本(lifting costs)為 4.3 美元。所以我們非常有信心。是的,由於汽油價格,我們在合約上看到一些壓力或調整,但我們的計畫將使我們能夠抵消這個小幅影響。
Daniel Guardiola - Analyst
Daniel Guardiola - Analyst
Thank you, Miguel.
謝謝你,Miguel。
Operator
Operator
Alejandro Demichelis, Jefferies.
Alejandro Demichelis,Jefferies。
Alejandro Anibal Demichelis - Analyst
Alejandro Anibal Demichelis - Analyst
Yes, good morning. Thank you very much for taking my question. Miguel, you just talked about your hedging strategy and how you're dealing with the commercial part. Maybe you can talk about how the new trading vehicle should be operating, how much risk it should be taking, and how can that continue to improve your commercial cost?
是的,早安。非常感謝讓我提問。Miguel,你剛才談到你們的避險策略以及如何處理商業端。也許你可以談談新的交易載體(trading vehicle)應該如何運作、應該承擔多少風險,以及它如何能持續改善你們的商業成本?
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Ale, for the question. Yes. So first, the reason why we created a trading company, the main reason, and we explained it before, is to access to new markets. But basically, we generate more demand from the Medanito oil, and also we create some additional margins since we are selling our own oil on delivering basis.
謝謝你,Ale,提出這個問題。是的。首先,我們成立一家交易公司(trading company)的原因,主要原因——我們之前也解釋過——是為了進入新市場。但基本上,我們為 Medanito 原油創造更多需求,同時因為我們以到岸交付(delivered basis)的方式銷售自有原油,也能創造一些額外的利潤。
As we said, when we look at what we have done, we are achieving both. We are reaching new markets. And as an example, Malaysia, Australia, Thailand, Singapore, that we didn't reach before, we are reaching now. And we are also capturing additional margins on the 25 million barrels that VEISA expects to trade during 2026. So we are not a trading company. So VEISA's goal is not to take any trading risk.
如同我們所說,回顧我們已經做的事情,我們兩個目標都在達成:我們正在進入新市場。舉例來說,馬來西亞、澳洲、泰國、新加坡,這些我們以前沒有觸及的市場,現在都觸及到了。同時,我們也在 VEISA 預期於 2026 年交易的 2,500 萬桶上,捕捉到額外的利潤。因此我們不是一家交易公司。VEISA 的目標不是承擔任何交易風險。
That they only take position to cover the volume that we sold, and usually also only for the following month until the oil is delivered. So I mean, I think it's super important to clarify because we did VEISA for that reason. And we should not look at VEISA as a trading company. And, of course, I mean, the two objectives that we put us in line of the creation of VEISA, we are achieving it.
他們只會為我們已售出的量建立部位來做覆蓋,而且通常也只會做到下一個月、直到原油交付為止。所以我的意思是,我認為這點非常重要需要澄清,因為我們成立 VEISA 就是基於這個原因。我們不應把 VEISA 視為一家交易公司。當然,我是說,我們在成立 VEISA 時設定的兩個目標,我們都正在達成。
Alejandro Anibal Demichelis - Analyst
Alejandro Anibal Demichelis - Analyst
Perfect, yeah, Thank you.
很好,謝謝。
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
You're welcome.
不客氣。
Operator
Operator
Henrique da Cunha, JPMorgan
Henrique da Cunha,JPMorgan
Henrique Cunha - Analyst
Henrique Cunha - Analyst
Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking our question here. We have a question on working capital. Could you provide more color on the impact it had on free cash flow in the quarter? Specifically, in the report, you mentioned around $200 million related to VEISA, which was not included in our estimates here. So could you elaborate on the contract effects from VEISA, and what should we expect going forward?
嗨,早安。謝謝讓我們在這裡提問。我們有一個關於營運資金(working capital)的问题。你能否提供更多細節,說明它在本季對自由現金流(free cash flow)的影響?具體來說,在報告中你提到大約 2 億美元與 VEISA 相關,這並未納入我們的估算。你能否進一步說明 VEISA 合約帶來的影響,以及未來我們應該期待什麼?
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Yes, Henrique, of course, happy to elaborate on that. So basically, the ramp-up of VEISA operations generate two one-offs, as we explained. One is related to the fact that VEISA sold most of its production on a delivered basis instead of FOB that was what we were doing before, which is -- that is what we were doing with all the trading companies that we were using before the creation of VEISA. This extended the revenue collection cycle by the transit of the ship.
是的,Henrique,當然,很樂意進一步說明。基本上,VEISA 營運的爬坡(ramp-up)帶來了兩個一次性(one-offs)影響,如我們所解釋的。第一個與 VEISA 將其大部分產量以到岸交付(delivered basis)而非 FOB 方式銷售有關——而 FOB 是我們以前採用的方式,也就是在成立 VEISA 之前,我們與所有交易公司合作時所採用的方式。這使得收入回收週期因船舶在途時間而延長。
So let me give you an example. An oil vessel that takes around 25 days to go from Puerto Rosales to West Coast in US. Also now we are seeing more demand from the Asian buyers, but also will take that transit time -- much more time, I would say, probably 40 days of transit time. And that is basically the change that we have, from what we did before and what we have today. This is the first one-off.
我舉個例子:一艘油輪從 Puerto Rosales 到美國西岸大約需要 25 天。現在我們也看到來自亞洲買家的需求增加,但也會需要那段在途時間——我會說更久,可能大約 40 天的航程時間。這基本上就是我們從過去到現在所發生的變化。這是第一個一次性影響。
The second effect is related to VEISA's short-term hedge will consist of buying physical oil from Vista Argentina and selling a forward contract at the same price to lock in that revenue. So for example, in the month of March, with significant price volatility, our EBITDA reflects the realization of price of $60, but the invoice to be collected by VEISA reflects the market price that was between $90 and $100, leading to an increase in working capital.
第二個影響與 VEISA 的短期避險有關:它會向 Vista Argentina 購買實體原油,並以相同價格賣出一份遠期合約,以鎖定該收入。舉例來說,在 3 月份價格波動很大時,我們的 EBITDA 反映的是 60 美元的實現價格(realization of price),但 VEISA 待收的發票反映的是介於 90 到 100 美元之間的市場價格,從而導致營運資金增加。
So those are the two effects that we have. One is related to the realization of the price and the short hedge that VEISA takes every time it sells. And the other one is the change of us that today we are selling on delivered basis instead of FOB that we were doing before. I hope that answers your question, Henrique.
所以我們有這兩個影響:一個與價格實現以及 VEISA 每次銷售時所做的短期避險有關;另一個是我們現在以到岸交付(delivered basis)銷售,而不是以前的 FOB。希望這回答了你的問題,Henrique。
Henrique Cunha - Analyst
Henrique Cunha - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Tasso Vasconcellos, UBS.
Tasso Vasconcellos,UBS。
Tasso Vasconcellos - Analyst
Tasso Vasconcellos - Analyst
Hi, Miguel. Hi, Ali. Miguel, you already mentioned a little bit about your pricing, the discount on premium to Brent prices, Medanito and so on. But can you also comment on that agreement that you had with the local refineries in Argentina in terms of setting some kind of limit on pricing when oil prices are too high, but also some kind of protection when it moves to lower intermediate periods, that's good for us to understand how we should think about this agreement looking forward. Thank you.
嗨,Miguel。嗨,Ali。Miguel,你已經稍微提到你們的定價、相對布蘭特(Brent)價格的折價或溢價、Medanito 等等。但你也能否評論一下你們與阿根廷當地煉油廠的那項協議:在油價過高時設定某種價格上限,同時在油價走到較低、介於中間的期間時提供某種保護?這有助於我們理解未來應如何看待這項協議。謝謝。
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
I thought so. Tasso, thank you very much for the question. So first, probably prices in the domestic market continue to fully reflect export parity. And I think that is super important to understand. There was no agreement to fix prices. Now what we did was to discuss an agreement to mitigate the financial impact of rising crude oil prices resulting from the conflict that we have in Middle East. So that agreement was that the buyer will recognize full export parity, but paying up to $95 to $100 Brent for April and May. So any positive difference between the price that they paid and the international market price will be deferred and paid no later than July 31.
我明白。Tasso,非常感謝你的問題。首先,國內市場的價格仍然完全反映出口平價(export parity)。我認為這點非常重要,需要理解。並沒有任何固定價格的協議。我們所做的是討論一項協議,以緩解因中東衝突導致原油價格上升所帶來的財務影響。該協議內容是:買方將承認完整的出口平價,但在 4 月與 5 月支付的布蘭特價格上限為 95 到 100 美元。因此,買方支付價格與國際市場價格之間的任何正向差額將被遞延,並最遲於 7 月 31 日支付。
This agreement does not have any material impact on our cash flow, as you know, and is only applied to one-third of our local sales, equivalent to 15,000 barrels of oil per day, or around 10% of our total sales. The rest of the volume continue to be priced and paid at export parity. So that is what we did. I think it was very smart. It took the consensus of very few people. And again, we continue receiving and reflecting full export parity in the local market.
如你所知,這項協議對我們的現金流沒有任何重大影響,且僅適用於我們三分之一的本地銷售量,約等於每日 15,000 桶,或約占我們總銷售量的 10%。其餘的量仍以出口平價定價並支付。所以這就是我們所做的。我認為這非常明智,而且只需要少數人達成共識。再次強調,我們在本地市場仍然收到並反映完整的出口平價。
Operator
Operator
Andres Cardona, Citi.
Andres Cardona,Citi。
Andres Cardona - Equity Analyst
Andres Cardona - Equity Analyst
Hi, good morning, again. I've been. The province of Buenos Aires and the opener cancelled is considering doing a new round of some 15 blocks, from what I see, on the Neuquén. Could you share your thoughts about this opportunity, timing, if the assets are located in a relatively core acreage or it's more type of frontier? Any color that you could share is appreciated.
嗨,早安,再次問候。我看到布宜諾斯艾利斯省以及(原文如此)opener cancelled 正在考慮在 Neuquén 進行新一輪大約 15 個區塊的招標。你能分享一下你對這個機會的看法、時程,以及這些資產是位於相對核心的區塊(core acreage),還是更偏向前沿(frontier)類型?任何你能分享的資訊都很感謝。
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Andres. Yes, I think, look, I mean, very good timing of the province to put this out. We are always going to look into anything that is on the basin that we can participate. Nevertheless, when you look at what basically they are offering, I would say there's a lot of border of the basin and gas, okay? As you know, our strategy is very concentrated in oil. There could be some oil block that we will look at it. But very early to tell you if we will do anything. But we believe a very good initiative from the province.
謝謝你,Andres。是的,我想——你看——省政府在這個時點推出,我認為時機很好。我們一向會關注盆地內任何我們可以參與的機會。不過,當你看他們基本上提供的內容時,我會說有很多是在盆地邊界以及天然氣(gas),好嗎?如你所知,我們的策略非常聚焦在石油(oil)。可能會有一些石油區塊我們會去看,但現在還太早,無法告訴你我們是否會採取任何行動。不過我們認為這是省政府非常好的倡議。
Andres Cardona - Equity Analyst
Andres Cardona - Equity Analyst
Miguel, do these blocks have the same royalties scheme, or are they introducing any incremental rate?
Miguel,這些區塊的權利金(royalties)制度是否相同,還是他們會引入任何額外的費率?
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Could you repeat, sorry?
可以再說一遍嗎,不好意思?
Andres Cardona - Equity Analyst
Andres Cardona - Equity Analyst
Yes, if the new blocks may have the same royalties rate that the traditional shale acreage as in Vaca Muerta.
是的,如果新的區塊可能會有與 Vaca Muerta 傳統頁岩礦權相同的權利金稅率。
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Yes, Andres, I understand it's the same, okay? And to be honest, I cannot give you detail. We will look how the process evolves, but there should not be any change on the scheme.
是的,Andres,我了解是一樣的,對吧?老實說,我無法提供細節。我們會觀察流程如何演進,但制度架構應該不會有任何變動。
Operator
Operator
Michael Furrow, Pickering Energy Partners.
Michael Furrow,Pickering Energy Partners。
Michael Furrow - Analyst
Michael Furrow - Analyst
Hello, and thanks for taking our question. Look, we were just hoping to get a quick update regarding the Equinor deal. I know it's still a bit early for the company to issue pro forma guidance until that deal closes in early May. But what do you see as a good run rate for annual net turn-in lines on the Bandurria Sur assets? And what could the associated CapEx look like?
你好,謝謝讓我們提問。我們只是希望就 Equinor 交易得到一個快速更新。我知道在該交易於 5 月初完成交割之前,現在對公司來說要提供備考(pro forma)指引仍稍嫌過早。但你們認為 Bandurria Sur 資產年度淨 turn-in lines 的合理運行水準(run rate)會是多少?相關的資本支出(CapEx)可能會是什麼樣子?
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Yes, Michael, thank you for the question. So as we mentioned, we now received the pending approval that we have from the Chilean antitrust authorities. So all conditions precedent basically have been met, and we are planning to close this deal early May.
是的,Michael,謝謝你的問題。如我們提到的,我們現在已收到智利反壟斷主管機關尚待取得的核准。因此,基本上所有先決條件都已滿足,我們計畫在 5 月初完成這筆交易交割。
Regarding the CapEx, it will be around $200 million. And also assuming that the deal closes in May, the consolidation will be as of May 1. The assets are producing around 20,000 barrels of oil per day at Vista working interest. And I think there could be a little upside on this in the coming quarter. With that production assumption, you should assume that we will generate around $3 billion of EBITDA.
關於資本支出(CapEx),大約會是 2 億美元。另外,假設交易在 5 月完成交割,合併報表將自 5 月 1 日起納入。以 Vista 的工作權益(working interest)計算,這些資產目前產量約為每日 20,000 桶原油。我認為在接下來一季可能還會有些上行空間。在這個產量假設下,你們應該假設我們將產生約 30 億美元的 EBITDA。
Michael Furrow - Analyst
Michael Furrow - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
You're welcome.
不客氣。
Operator
Operator
George Gasztowtt, Latin Securities.
George Gasztowtt,Latin Securities。
George Gasztowtt - Analyst
George Gasztowtt - Analyst
Good afternoon, Miguel, and thank you for taking my question. Clearly it's a very volatile environment, but I was wondering if you could comment on the Medanito discount to Brent. Are you seeing that move a lot? And how should we think about the differential in Q2 and beyond?
下午好,Miguel,謝謝讓我提問。顯然目前環境非常波動,但我想請你評論一下 Medanito 相對 Brent 的折價。你們看到它變動很大嗎?我們應該如何看待第二季以及之後的價差(differential)?
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Yes. Thank you for the question, and we're happy with this one. So yes, we have seen significantly stronger Medanito differentials. This is driven by the supply tightness of Asia and this is also contributing to the higher realization price that you saw in Q2. We saw a lower volatility in the last month from basically minus $3/bbl prior to the Middle East event to a range of plus $6/bbl to $9/bbl that was more recently. We believe that this trend will continue depending on how the oil market dynamic unfolds. There's still a lot of uncertainty there. But I will say you should assume that we will continue selling on a premium price, at least for the near future.
是的,謝謝你的問題,我們也很樂於回答。是的,我們確實看到 Medanito 的價差顯著走強。這是由於亞洲供應偏緊所驅動,也促成了你在第二季看到的較高實現價格。過去一個月波動性較低,基本上從中東事件前的每桶 -3 美元,轉為近期每桶 +6 美元到 +9 美元的區間。我們相信,這個趨勢將會延續,取決於油市動態如何發展;目前仍有很多不確定性。但我會說,你們應該假設至少在近期,我們將持續以溢價價格出售。
Daniel Guardiola - Analyst
Daniel Guardiola - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, George.
謝謝你,George。
Operator
Operator
Ignacio Sabelle, Itau BBA.
Ignacio Sabelle,Itau BBA。
Ignacio Sabelle - Analyst
Ignacio Sabelle - Analyst
Yes. Hi, everyone. Congrats on the results. I would like to understand how the new scope of the RIGI benefits you. What are the plans? Are there any blocks developments that could be targeted here? And maybe understand what are the time frames? When are you going to submit any projects? And also, until when can you submit any projects?Thanks.
是的,大家好。恭喜本季成果。我想了解 RIGI 新的適用範圍如何讓你們受益。你們有什麼計畫?是否有任何區塊開發可以以此為目標?也想了解時間表:你們何時會提交任何專案?另外,最晚到什麼時候之前可以提交任何專案?謝謝。
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Yes. Thank you, Ignacio, for the question. Yes, we are currently preparing the documentation to apply for RIGI for two of our future development blocks. One is Ãguila Mora and the other one is Bandurria Norte. After closing the Equinor deal, we will have also a better understanding of Bajada del Toro, which we believe also could apply to the RIGI. But the application of that in particular has to be submitted by this operator, the YPF. But we are quite confident that also that one will apply.
是的,謝謝你,Ignacio,謝謝你的問題。是的,我們目前正在準備文件,為我們未來兩個開發區塊申請 RIGI。一個是 Águila Mora,另一個是 Bandurria Norte。在完成 Equinor 交易交割後,我們也會對 Bajada del Toro 有更好的了解,我們相信它也可能符合 RIGI。不過,該項申請必須由其營運商 YPF 提交。但我們相當有信心那個區塊也會適用。
Regarding your second question on timing, we plan to submit the documentation by the end of Q2. The Minister of Energy then has to analyze all the information before the approval. Based on what we've seen is happening with other companies that have asked for the RIGI, that will take probably a few months.
關於你第二個問題、也就是時程方面,我們計畫在第二季末前提交文件。之後能源部長必須在核准前分析所有資訊。根據我們看到其他申請 RIGI 的公司情況,這可能需要幾個月。
I would like to add that the impact of RIGI is very positive. For what we saw on the valuation that the two blocks that we present, it creates fiscal incentives and also it moves us to accelerate the CapEx of investment in those blocks that otherwise will be at the tail of our plan. So very good initiative for the government on this one. And it will help to bring that block from the north a bit closer in our plan.
我想補充的是,RIGI 的影響非常正面。就我們對所提出兩個區塊的估值所見,它創造了財政誘因,也促使我們加速對這些區塊的資本支出投資;否則它們會在我們計畫的尾端。因此,政府在這方面是一個非常好的倡議。它也將有助於把北部那個區塊在我們的計畫中稍微往前拉近一些。
Ignacio Sabelle - Analyst
Ignacio Sabelle - Analyst
Awesome. Thanks. Very clear.
太好了,謝謝。非常清楚。
Operator
Operator
Oriana Covault, Balanz.
Oriana Covault,Balanz。
Orianna Cavalt - Analyst
Orianna Cavalt - Analyst
Hi, thanks for taking my question. I have a quick one regarding the nonoperated assets. Specifically, how do you see the contribution from these areas, specifically La Amarga Chica evolving through the year? Thank you.
嗨,謝謝讓我提問。我有個關於非營運資產(nonoperated assets)的簡短問題。具體來說,你們如何看待這些區域的貢獻在今年內的變化,特別是 La Amarga Chica?謝謝。
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Oriana, for the question. Yes, look, La Amarga Chica is performing quite well. When we acquired the block, if you remember, we were producing around 38,000 barrels of oil per day. This is Vista's working interest. And in Q1, we produced around [48,000] barrels of oil per day, so a 25% increase. For the rest of the year, as we said, we are expecting a flattish forecast or even a slight growth, okay? But, yes, happy with the acquisition, happy with the performance, happy with the relationship that we have today with YPF at the operational level. Everything is working pretty well.
謝謝你,Oriana,謝謝你的問題。是的,你看,La Amarga Chica 表現相當好。當我們收購該區塊時,如果你還記得,以 Vista 的工作權益計算,我們的產量約為每日 38,000 桶原油。而在第一季,我們產量約為每日 [48,000] 桶原油,增加了 25%。對於今年剩餘時間,如我們所說,我們預期展望大致持平,甚至略有成長,好嗎?但,是的,我們對這次收購很滿意,對表現很滿意,也對我們目前在營運層面與 YPF 的合作關係很滿意。一切運作得相當順利。
Orianna Cavalt - Analyst
Orianna Cavalt - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
You're welcome.
不客氣。
Operator
Operator
Matias Cattaruzzi, AdCap.
Matias Cattaruzzi,AdCap。
Matias Cattaruzzi - Analyst
Matias Cattaruzzi - Analyst
Hello, good day Miguel and management team, and my question is as follows. How would the 2026 EBITDA and free cash flow guidance look at Brent of $105 or $115 per barrel in the new guidance framework?
你好,Miguel 與管理團隊,日安。我的問題如下:在新的指引框架下,若 Brent 為每桶 105 美元或 115 美元,2026 年的 EBITDA 與自由現金流指引會是什麼樣子?
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Matias. I like this question. So I think as a rule of thumb, the way we look at it, if you consider that every $10 increase between Q2 and Q4, you have to think that we will capture around $275 million of EBITDA and $250 million of free cash flow. So back to your numbers, we show early $95 Brent for Q2 to Q4. EBITDA will be estimated around $2.9 billion in 2026. And at $105, that same EBITDA will be $3.2 billion, and at $115 Brent, it will be almost $3.5 billion. In the case of free cash flow, a $95 Brent scenario, the free cash flow will be around $1 billion for the full year. And at $105, $1.25 billion, and at $115, $1.5 billion of free cash flow during the year.
謝謝你,Matias。我喜歡這個問題。我想作為一個經驗法則(rule of thumb),我們的看法是:如果你考慮第二季到第四季之間每增加 10 美元,你可以認為我們大約會多捕捉 2.75 億美元的 EBITDA,以及 2.5 億美元的自由現金流。回到你的數字,我們在第二季到第四季的假設是 Brent 約 95 美元。2026 年 EBITDA 估計約 29 億美元;若是 105 美元,同樣的 EBITDA 會是 32 億美元;若是 115 美元 Brent,將接近 35 億美元。自由現金流方面,在 Brent 95 美元情境下,全年自由現金流約 10 億美元;在 105 美元時為 12.5 億美元;在 115 美元時,全年自由現金流為 15 億美元。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. I'm not showing any further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Miguel for any closing remarks.
謝謝。目前我這邊沒有看到其他問題。現在我將把電話交回給 Miguel,請他做結語。
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Miguel Galuccio - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
So guys, thank you very much for the participation, for the good questions. Very positive about what is coming up. We are starting the year from the operational point of view and the production point of view on good grounds, and very confident for Q3 and Q4. This should be an excellent year for us. Thank you very much for the continued support, and have a good day.
各位,非常感謝你們的參與與很好的問題。我們對接下來的發展非常正面。從營運與產量角度來看,我們以良好基礎展開今年,並且對第三季與第四季非常有信心。這對我們來說應該會是非常出色的一年。非常感謝大家持續的支持,祝各位有美好的一天。
Operator
Operator
Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.
感謝各位參與今天的電話會議。節目到此結束。您現在可以掛線。各位,祝有美好的一天。