Vista Energy SAB de CV (VIST) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Vista's fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

I would now like to hand the call over to Alejandro Cherñacov, Strategic Planning and Investor Relations Officer. Please go ahead.

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. We are happy to welcome you to Vista's fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results conference call. I am here with Miguel Galuccio, Vista's Chairman and CEO; Pablo Vera Pinto, Vista's CFO; Juan Garoby, Vista's CTO; and Matías Weissel, Vista's COO.

Before we begin, I would like to draw your attention to our cautionary statement on slide 2. Please be advised that our remarks today, including the answers to your questions, may include forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to be materially different from expectations contemplated by these remarks.

Our financial figures are stated in US dollars and in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards, IFRS. However, during this conference call, we may discuss certain non-IFRS measures, such as adjusted EBITBA and adjusted net income. Reconciliations of these measures to the closest IFRS measure can be found in the earnings release that we issued yesterday. Please check our website for further information.

Our company is a Sociedad Anónima Bursátil de Capital Variable, organized under the laws of Mexico, registered in the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores and the New York Stock Exchange. Our tickers are VISTA in the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores and VIST in the New York Stock Exchange.

I will now turn the call over to Miguel.

Thanks, Ale. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to this earnings call.

2024 was another outstanding year for Vista, marked by double-digit growth rates in production and adjusted EBITBA, having delivered on guidance for both metrics. We also secured new drilling, completion, and oil treatment and transportation capacity, which will underpin further growth in the coming years. I will kick it off by going over the results of Q4 and, later, a deep dive into the highlight of the full year.

The fourth quarter of 2024 was marked by strong operational and financial performance, driven by new oil activity in our development hub in Vaca Muerta. Total production was 85,300 BOEs per day, an increase of 51% compared to the same quarter of last year and 17% compared to the previous quarter. Oil production was 73,500 barrels of oil per day, 52% year over year and 16% quarter over quarter. Total revenues during Q4 2024 were $471 million, 52% above the same quarter of last year.

Lifting cost was $4.7 per BOE, almost flat quarter over quarter. Capital expenditure was $340 million, driven by 11 wells drilled and 13 wells completed during the quarter, plus $64 million in development facilities. Adjusted EBITDA was $273 million, 5% below the same quarter of last year. If we net out the income generated by the repatriation of exports at the blue chip swap rate, quarterly adjusted EBITDA grew 27% year over year.

Net income was $94 million, implying a quarterly EPS of $0.98 per share. Deducting deferred income tax, adjusted net income during the quarter was $22 million. Free cash flow was $57 million during the quarter. And finally, net leverage ratio at quarter-end was a solid 0.63 times adjusted EBITDA.

During Q4, we record another quarter of double-digit production growth on a sequential and inter-annual basis. Total production at 85,300 BOEs per day was 17% above the previous quarter and 51% above the same quarter last year. Production growth was driven by the acceleration of capital deployment in our core development hub. New well activities increased from 31 new wells in 2023 to 50 new wells connected during 2024. 25 new wells were connected between mid-August and early December, driving our understanding production performance during the last quarter of the year.

Oil production was 73,500 barrels of oil per day, following the same trend, 16% above the previous quarter and 52% above the fourth quarter of last year. Gas production increased 52% on an inter-annual basis and 27% on a sequential basis.

In Q4 2024, total revenues were $471 million, a 52% increase year over year and 2% quarter over quarter, mainly driven by oil production growth. On a sequential basis, the relatively lower increase in total revenues compared to the 70% production increase reflects a normalization of oil inventories from below average level in the previous quarter, as well as the commissioning of Oldelval expansion pipelines. We required 70,000 barrels of oil for the line path. Combining both effects, 280,000 barrels of oil production were not sold during the quarter.

Realized oil price was $67.1 per barrel on average, down 1% on inter-annual basis and 2% lower on a sequential basis, mainly driven by slightly lower international prices. Export realization prices were $66.6 per barrel. Subjective realization prices were $67.8 per barrel, including volumes sold at export parity.

During Q4, we continued to execute our export-oriented strategy with an increasing amount of oil sold in international markets driven by the production growth. We exported 3.6 barrels of oil during the quarter, 79% above the previous year. Additionally, 1.1 million barrels of oil were sold in the domestic market at export parity prices. Combining the sales to international buyers with the domestic buyers paying export parity, 73% of our total oil sales were sold at export parity prices.

Lifting cost during Q4 was $36.6 million, implying a lifting cost per BOE of $4.7. On a unit cost basis, lifting cost was up 8% year over year. This increase was driven by inflation in US dollars impacting pesos-denominated contracts and a ramp-up in oilfield expenditures to accommodate our production growth. These effects were partially offset by the dilution of fixed costs as we continue gaining scale.

Adjusted EBITDA during the quarter was $273 million, 5% lower on an inter-annual basis. This reflects the fact that Q4 of last year included $81 million corresponding to the repatriation of export proceeds at the blue-chip swap rate compared to the $9 million during Q4 2024. Excluding this effect, adjusted EBITDA spanned 27% on inter-annual basis.

On a sequential basis, adjusted EBITDA was down 12%, reflecting a series of one-off and temporary factor offsetting the 17% total production growth. Firstly, the normalization of oil inventories from the previous quarter and the commissioning of Oldelval pipeline, which I already mentioned. Secondly, the increase in trucking expenditure. As trucking volumes increased from 12,000 to 20,000 barrels of oil per day quarter over quarter, this impacted sale expenses with an increase of $25 million on a sequential basis. Finally, you should note that with this quarterly print, we have achieved our annual adjusted EBITDA guidance.

During Q4 2024, operating activities cash flow was $369 million, reflecting a decrease in working capital of $133 million and an advance payment for midstream expansions of $27 million. Cash flow used in investing activities was $312 million, reflecting accrued CapEx of $340 million partially offset by $34 million decrease in CapEx related to working capital. Free cash flow during the quarter was therefore $57 million.

Cash flow from financing activities reflects proceeds from borrowings of $836 million and the repayment of borrowings of $340 million. During Q4, we achieved a major milestone by pre-financing all the ramp-up of CapEx activities planned for 2025. Finally, cash at period-end was $764 million, and net leverage ratio stood at a very healthy 0.63 times adjusted EBITDA.

I will now move to our full-year highlights. During 2024, we achieved major milestones across all four strategic pillars. We have accelerated the development of our deep short-cycle well inventory in Vaca Muerta. Solid productivity results have supported the expansion of our P1 reserve to 375 million barrels of oil equivalent, implying a 323% reserve replacement ratio.

We continued to prove our PR-leading performance capabilities, driving total production to an average of 69,700 BOEs per day during the year, up 36% compared to 2023. Lifting cost was down 10% year over year for a total of $4.6 per BOE, reflecting our low-cost asset base and our continuous focus on efficiency.

We also made solid progress on the sustainability front, recording a greenhouse gas emission intensity of 8.8 kilos of CO2 equivalent per BOE, a 44% reduction compared to the previous year, on the back of the capital expenditure in decarbonization projects. Our total recordable incident rate was below our target of 1 for the fifth consecutive year, demonstrating our focus on employee and contractor safety.

Finally, we continue to successfully execute our total shareholder return strategy. Adjusted EBITDA expanded 25% compared to 2023 on the back of production growth and cost control. Our share price increased 83% from year-end 2023 to year-end 2024. P1 reserve increased 18% compared to 2023 for a total of 375 million BOEs estimated at year-end 2024. This implies a total reserve replacement ratio of 323% and 339% for oil.

Net additions were 82.2 million BOEs, driven by activity in Bajada del Palo Oeste, where we added 52 new wells locations. Bajada del Palo Oeste, where we added 34 locations, and Aguada Federal, where we added 15 locations. This results in a total of 400 booked well locations in our P1 reserves. The certified present value at a 10% discount rate attributable to the company interest in P1 reserve is $4 billion, using a price assumption of $69.4 per barrel for oil, according to SEC guidelines.

During 2024, we achieved significant operating milestones to continue driving profitability growth. We successfully ramped up our new well activity from 31 new well timings in 2023 to 50 in 2024. This led to a robust inter-annual production growth and delivery of our annual guidance for new well connections and total production.

We increased our oil trucking transportation capacity to 37,000 barrels of oil per day, which was a key enabler to deliver our production growth plan. In turn, production growth led an increase in oil exports. During 2024, we exported 10.6 million barrels of oil, 29% above 2023, for a total of $748 million of net revenues.

We also achieved a key milestone that will unlock further profitability growth going forward. We secured three drilling rigs and two frac sets, which enabled us to ramp up to 50 new well connections in 2024, as well as guiding for 52 to 60 connections in 2025. We recently finished upgrading our oil treatment plant to a capacity of 90,000 barrels of oil per day. We have already identified projects to expand this capacity further, and we'll allocate CapEx to this effort during 2025.

We also made cash contributions to fund the expansion of the Oldelval pipeline, which is now complete. The pipeline is currently ramping up, and we expect it to reach full capacity by quarter-end. As a reminder, Vista owns 32,000 barrels of oil per day of firm transportation capacity in this pipeline. We have also partnered in Vaca Muerta Sur Company, securing an additional 50,000 barrels of oil per day of transportation, storage, and export capacity in the project.

During 2024, we made solid progress in reducing the carbon footprint in our operations. We reduced our total Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 28% compared to 2023, even as we increased total production during the year. Measured by intensity at 8.8 kilograms of CO2 per BOE for 2024, the decrease was 44% year over year. Our single-digit intensity placed Vista well within the first quartile of global oil and gas operations, materializing our ambition to become a low-cost, lower-emissions upstream producer.

To achieve this, we increased the uptake of renewable energy in our operations, replacing gas-fired power generation. This includes the startup of the first gas compression station powered by renewable energy in Latin America. We also made improvements in vapor recovery units to improve reliability and construct a gas pipeline from Aguada Federal to Bajada del Palo Oeste to increase gas evacuation capacity.

Moving to nature-based solution front, our subsidiary, Aike, made solid progress across oil verticals. We planted 1,800 hectares combining afforestation and reforestation projects in Corrientes and Formosa provinces. We also completed critical facilities, including fire protection, fences, water wells, and housing, in our forest conservation project in Salta. Finally, we increased the amount of hectares under management in our regenerative livestock and agricultural projects in San Luis, Cordoba, and Buenos Aires.

During 2024, we have continued to deliver strong financial metrics, resulting in superior total shareholder returns. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 25% year over year to $1.1 billion, above the midpoint of our annual guidance range.

ROACE remained strong at 24%, specifically as it is measured at ERN. It was negatively impacted by the issuance of $600 million of debt, which will be applied to high-return new well CapEx during 2025. Without such effect, ROACE in 2024 will have been closer to 30%. The strong operational and financial performance during the last three years allow us to deliver an average ROACE of 35%.

EPS per share increased 18% year over year to $5 per share, reflecting solid bottom-line performance in 2024. Moreover, we continue to maintain robust financial ranges. We successfully tapped to the local and international debt market to fund the acceleration of our CapEx plan, maintaining a healthy net leverage ratio at 0.6 times adjusted EBITDA and gross leverage ratio of 1.3 times adjusted EBITDA.

Finally, we repurchased $100 million of company stock during 2024 at an average price of $48 per share. This outstanding performance across all financial metrics was recognized by the market and is reflected in the evolution of our share price, which increased 83% from ERN 2023 to ERN 2024.

I will make some closing remarks before we move to Q&A. During 2024, we completed another year of robust operational and financial performance, having delivered again on our annual guidance. We record a solid 36% increase in total production and a P1 reserve replacement ratio of 323%. We updated our 2025 targets after securing our third drilling rig and second frac set. This allowed us to bring forward the target we have initially planned for 2026 to 2025.

Additionally, we secured enough oil treatment, transportation, and export capacity to deliver on our updated 2025 production target and our 2030 vision. We made significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions through solid execution of decarbonization projects and made good progress in the development of our NBS portfolio. We recorded a strong financial result with an adjusted EBITDA of $1.1 billion and delivered robust return measured by adjusted EBITDA margin and ROACE. We also delivered on our superior total shareholder return proposition with an 83% stock price appreciation and a share repurchase of $100 million.

In summary, 2024 has been an outstanding year for our company. A final comment from my side, I am very proud of our staff, their commitment, and passion, which have always been key to our success. Many thanks to all of them.

Operator, we can now move to Q&A.

(Operator Instructions) Bruno Montanari, Morgan Stanley.

Good morning, Miguel, Ale, and team. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to focus on production. If you could talk about the setup for production now in the first quarter of the year and how we should think about the trajectory throughout the following quarters by the end of the year, it would be great. Thank you very much.

Hi, Bruno. Thanks for your question. I would like to take the opportunity of that question to explain how we plan our development that drives our production forecast.

I think you were spot-on with your comment in your report when you state that we have to look to the full-year growth numbers. The two principal things that guide our development plan are how to optimize our operational efficiency and also how we optimize the productivity of our well. So every time that our people plan the development for the year and for the life of the well, they are looking at the NPV. They are not looking at how I will report quarterly to you. And unfortunately, that will make my work a bit more difficult, but I'm sure if we do it the other way, they will destroy value.

In 2024, we grew 36% on year and we grew 51% Q4 2023 to Q4 2024. We averaged in the year 70,000 barrels of oil per day. For 2025, we have guided 95,000 to 100,000 barrels per day, what implies a growth of 35% to 40%. This is the number that we have to look at.

Now, if we go to Q1, and then back to your question, Q1 2025, we are expecting flat to a bit lower production on sequential basis. This is driven by two factors. When we plan Q1, new well connection, we slightly delay activity to time with the Oldelval expansion ramp-up. [We pick up] trucking around mid-December, and planning for production growing Q1, we have implied increasing the trucking fee in January, prior to ramp-up to a run-down in February, in line with the Oldelval commissioning. So that will be complicated from logistic and contractual point of view. So we end up planning for the quarter, as I said, with flat to probably a slightly lower production.

Additionally, it's fair to comment that we entered January with a slightly lower production than we expected, and we have delay in connecting four parts for the year. Now, again, to achieve the 95K or 100K average in 2025, we plan to ramp up production with a big ramp-up in Q3 and Q4. And also, we will see a bit of ramp-up in time in Q2.

So I hope I have answered your question, and again, thank you for your comment in your report.

Super. Thank you very much, Miguel.

Andres Cardona, Citi.

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Miguel, following on how to forecast production of [maybe] going towards 2026 and linking it with the Vaca Muerta South expansion, could you please provide us an update about the status of the project, the dates of -- key dates of mixing capacity addition? How are you planning the production, evacuation between -- whenever you feel the capacity at Oldelval until the first capacity from Vaca Muerta Sur is available?

Hi, Andres. Thank you for your question. I think the main part of evacuation capacity that today is under contraction or under discussion is BEMO. So let me give you an update on that one to begin with.

So we are seeing very good progress in that project. We already signed all the relevant documents related to the shareholder rights. I think also we need securing field transportation for capacity. That capacity, as a reminder, is 50,000 barrels of oil per day for us. We know that the main EPC contractor has been awarded the contraction of the pipe, also the storage tank at the terminal, and as well the port.

Also, we know that the purchase order for the long-lead item has been placed, and in our estimation, we expect that project to be ready in mid-2027. The rest of the capacity is Oldelval. We know that -- as you know, it's going to be ready in Q2, and the rest, we have all in hand. So I think going forward and looking to the future, the main thing for the medium long term for us is Vaca Muerta Sur.

Tasso Vasconcellos, UBS.

Hi, Miguel. Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking my question here.

Miguel, Vista has been able to increase the equipment set in the past years, bringing additional drilling rigs and frac sets and so on. So a question we have is on the internal process, the mindset from the company to evaluate eventually signing a fourth drilling rig, and, of course, eventually increasing further the potential of annual wells drilling. So maybe split the question here in two parts.

What are the main metrics, the main drivers vis-a-vis the main risks and bottlenecks that the company looks at when deciding to bring additional drilling rigs? And the second part of the question, if you do decide to bring this additional drilling rig, the fourth one, what could be the timing for the decision, and how could this impact the current guidance of 52 to 60 wells per year? This is my question. Thank you.

Thank you, Tasso. Very good question. So we have discussed and we have the option to get a fourth rig from Neighbors, a company we have in a strategic relationship, as you know, all rigs that we run today are coming from them, and this discussion is always ongoing. So we have a fourth rig available to bring in at the same term of condition that we have had due to the relationship that we have with them.

In terms of the decision-making process to make that call, I will say there are two probably main elements that we are following, and it will have to be positive for us to consider that. One is related to Andres' question before, is the mainstream project. So having the capacity in hand to have evacuation.

And I will say the second one, in my view, is Brent prices. I think, as we know, we are looking at 2025 with softer Brent prices that we saw in 2024. And if it's within our forecast range, I think it's something that we will consider at some point in time. If it's something changed, it's clearly a no-go. So those are the main two factors that we will be looking into.

All right. Thank you.

Alejandro Demichelis, Jefferies.

Yes. Good morning, gentlemen. Thank you very much for taking my question.

Miguel, I think you mentioned in your remarks that the pipe and the Oldelval Duplicar is completed and you expect the full ramp-up by the end of this quarter. Is that right? Just to confirm that. And if that is the case, how do you see your cost evolving during the rest of the year?

Hi, Alejandro. Thank you for your question. So in case of Oldelval, the pipeline contraction is already finalized. The line pipe is in the pipe now, and we are already seeing a ramp-up in flowing volumes. So based on the information that we have, we expect a continued ramp-up and have full capacity available in Q1 and early Q2. As you know, this will add 315,000 barrels of oil per day to the system, which corresponds to 31,500 barrels of oil per day for Vista. We also know that the expansion of the port terminal is also moving forward. So also, we have been informing that it's a good progress on the storage tank and dock. So I believe Oldelval is a reality already, and we have access to that.

In terms of cost, clearly, that will have a big impact to us on the trucking front. In mid-December, we picked 30,000 barrels per day on trucking, and the cost went up all the way up north of $20 per barrel. So in Q2, all that cost is going to disappear, and clearly, that will impact EBITDA. So it's good a news for us that Oldelval finally came through.

That's great. Thank you. And in terms of the other costs, so lifting costs and drilling costs, how are you thinking about those evolving?

Drilling costs, I think, is -- we don't see the drilling costs going up during the year. And lifting cost, as you know, we are planning to be slightly down to 2024.

That's clear. Thank you.

Bruno Amorim, Goldman Sachs.

Thank you. Good morning, everybody. Hi, Miguel, Alejandro, and team. Thanks for taking my question.

Can you please comment on your views for the overall M&A environment in Vaca Muerta? Some foreign players decided to leave, but not all of them necessarily operate the assets. Are those still your potential targets given some assets are operated by your local competitors? What can you comment on the M&A environment? Thank you.

Thanks, Bruno, for your question. As you know, I mean, we called for a shareholder meeting that will take place next Monday to prepare Vista to be prepared for potential M&A activity. Our attitude, the way that we are, we are always very pragmatic, always set discipline and opportunistic on the M&A front. So we are always looking at everything that is happening that match with our focus that is still being Vaca Muerta shale oil.

So I think to answer your question, you have to take that we are disciplined, pragmatic, and opportunistic. So we will look at everything that is on the table on that respect. And we've been proven to be pretty good on the Vista side as well.

Thank you for your question, Bruno.

Thank you.

Milene Carvalho, JPMorgan.

Hello, everyone. Thank you so much for the opportunity, and congrats on the results.

One of the things that we have been discussing with investors is whether Brent prices could change somehow operations in CapEx. We are seeing accommodation at the lower level, and at JP, we do expect it to go a little bit lower. So if you could please comment on how do you see this impacting operations and how the flexibility of CapEx considers the Brent prices at lower levels.

Hi, Milene. Thank you very much for your question.

When we look at the downside risk in Brent and we look at this year, I mean, we see, as I mentioned before, a supply-demand fundamentals to be with a market that would be softer than we have seen in 2024. This is mainly driven by the low oil demand, which is forecast to grow only 1 million barrels during this year. On the other hand, on the supply side, we see at least 1.2 million barrels coming in, driven by Brazil, USA. Guyana also is coming with increase. Canada and, interestingly enough, Argentina also appear in the list with an increase of 100,000 barrels per day.

So we have built our plan with the price assumption of Brent in a range of $70 to $80. This implies $63 to $72 of realized prices. We are currently seeing Q1 prices higher -- on the higher part of this range that we have forecast. So Q1 is coming ahead of what we planned. So if the realized oil prices are between $65 and $67, we will probably maintain our current plan.

In case we said that the realized prices go below $55, then we will consider adjusting our capital investment for the year. As you know, we have a super-flexible portfolio. We always said that we have a short cycle CapEx since the drilling and the completion take almost a month. So we always have the flexibility to stop and also to accelerate. But these are the parameters that you need to think that will drive for us to review our CapEx plan. I don't forecast that we will be below $55 this year, but we have the ability to react if that happens.

All right. Thank you very much.

Walter Chiarvesio, Santander.

Hello. Thank you for taking my question. Going back to the lifting and CapEx cost, can you develop a little bit what is the impact of the super peso on that? I know that the NEDVAC margins are strong, but is that something that -- or if you can quantify, how much has impacted in 2024 and how do you see 2025 and looking forward if this is something that we should be concerned? I mean, the impact of the stronger currency in Argentina. That's it from me.

Hi, Walter. Thanks for the question. Probably starting with the lifting cost. So as you know, I mean, we record in Q4 $4.7 per barrel of lifting cost that was 1% down vis-a-vis our Q3. And basically, I'm explaining that because the reason of that was that we start to -- we continue capturing the benefits of economy of scale and the dynamic on the lifting cost that every time that we ramp up production, we dilute our feed cost.

We also, as you mentioned, see cost pressure during 2024 driven by the flood effects and the peso inflation. These effects will still play a role in the cost dynamic and will continue offsetting some of the savings that we continue putting in place. Now, we think that these effects will be lower -- will have a lower impact in 2025 as we assume that peso inflation continue to decelerate. So during 2025, we expect a slight reduction in lifting cost as we continue to invest in cost-cutting initiatives and also as we continue increasing production. So we are guiding lifting cost between $4.3 and $4.5 per barrel.

On the CapEx side, 70% of our CapEx, as you know, is US dollar denominated and 30% is peso denominated. We are assuming in our plan that our cost of well is going to be between $14 million and $14.5 million.

There, I will say one thing that we are doing that we have not communicated, but I'm happy to share with you. With the new promotion of Matías Weissel as COO of the company, we have the benefit of having Juan Garoby that have run the operation since the start of Vista and is not only an international and very seasoned manager, but also within his skill set, he comes from the well contraction side.

So we have asked him to start a multi-year plan to look at what we can do not to improve the efficiency of our CapEx but look into what we can do to change the game in terms of what we do in terms of well contraction. So we have put with him -- he has built a full team, a task force, that will be focused in a multi-year effort with one real rig assigned to try what we can do to change the game and to change the way that we do things on the well contraction side. So I have high hope for that initiative as well.

Thank you very much for your question.

Thank you very much for the answer.

Leonardo Marcondes, BofA.

Hi, everyone. Thanks for my question here. So my question is why don't you guys accelerate the production growth by bringing more equipment to do more wells in Argentina? And if the answer is limited capital availability, why not think about a potential follow-on capital increase given that Vista has one of the best valuations in Latin America? Thank you very much.

Thank you, Leo. Very good question. I think the reason why we trade one of the highest in LatAm is because we provide the highest growth with the best-in-class operational track record. As I mentioned before to Bruno, last year, we grow 36% year on year, and this year, we plan to grow again between 35% and 40%. So it's not really a capital issue.

As I mentioned to him as well, there is an art to find a sweet spot that combines the activity intensity that is required to fulfill the plan, as well as being very cautious of what is the velocity that we apply to the development of our field in order to optimize the output and NPV of the production that we put in place. So as you know, as we develop our plan and we develop our field, we have a combination of intensity and development and the risk at the same time. We have to risk areas to make sure that we will continue drilling the best well that we can drill to maximize the value of the development of those fields.

So back to your question, I think it's not a matter of CapEx. I think we are growing super fast. I mean, double-digit, 35%, 40% growth, and we believe we are optimizing the way that we manage the reservoir and we optimize the NPV of what we are putting in place.

And yes, as you mentioned, we have probably one of the best multiples. Now, I believe we also continue to be cheap. When you go back to US and you look at companies like Vista growing 35%, 40% a year, back 10 years ago, their multiple was around 8 and we're multiple today is about 4. So I feel we're still cheap for the growth that we are delivering.

And thanks for your question, Leo.

Got it. Thank you very much.

Juan José Muñoz-Rios, BTG.

Hi, everyone. Thank you for the opportunity. Just in the Vaca Muerta Sur project, I want to ask how much is the CapEx associated to the project in 2025 to be deployed for value? Thank you.

Hi, Juan Jose. Thanks for your question. So first, probably we will work to comment that we separate CapEx from investment. So CapEx, we still expect to be between $1.1 billion and $1.3 billion, and that does not include the Vaca Muerta Sur investment.

The total project investment for Vaca Muerta Sur is estimated around $3 billion. There is a potential bank financing of 40% to 60% of that project. So in our calculation, we are assuming that our equity investment will be in the range of $120 million to $180 million. So that is how you have to look at our CapEx and investment for the year.

Okay. Thanks.

Marina Mertens, Latin Securities.

Hi. Good morning, and thank you for taking my question. So regarding the potential lifting of capital controls, what would be the main benefits for Vista? Do you expect any improvements at an operational level? And could it eventually lead to accelerating your growth plan?

Thank you, Marina. Good question. I think the ease or lift of capital control will benefit the full industry. And of course, it's going to benefit us. If you think about what could be the main benefit, probably I think about two elements. The first element is it will make us more competitive. It will make us more competitive because we will probably have two impacts: one is more investment coming into Argentina.

So again, more competition, more companies. And I think that is good. I always believe that as we scale up our activity, we all benefit. So today, Vaca Muerta runs with 33 rigs. US runs between 400 and 500 rigs. So if you will go to 100, 150 rigs, the cost of drilling, it will be a completely different one, and therefore, we'll become more competitive.

Also, for service companies to come over to Argentina or to increase the capacity that they have today, I think an ease or lift on capital control will make a big difference. As you know, I mean, I used to run a service company, so I know how much it means for them. So it will be super good news, and it will make the whole industry in Vaca Muerta more competitive due to these two effects.

Thank you.

Oriana Covault, Balanz.

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. This is Oriana Covault with Balanz. You mentioned Brent pricing and potential volatility impacting your cap expense and so on. So I'm curious to know if you've considered establishing any hedging policy just to mitigate the potential effects of volatility. Thank you.

Hi, Oriana. Thanks for your question. Yeah, we have done that exercise, and we have had the discussion many times during the last several years that we've been running business in Argentina. And the answer that we have come up with is that we are already naturally hedged, being a very low-cost producer, having no large dematurities, and also having that flexibility of short-cycle CapEx where we can accelerate and stop at any time. And I think we proved that during the COVID-19 years.

Also, I mean, let's face it. I mean, many of our investors can hedge themselves more efficiently than we do. And also, if we hedge and we end up having -- being successful in the hedging strategy, it will be considered one-off. And if we hedge and we miss it, it will damage us. So no, the answer is we don't plan to hedge. And every time that we go through that discussion, we convince ourselves that being naturally hedged is the best way that we can hedge our business.

Thank you very much.

Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference back to Miguel Galuccio for closing remarks. Sir?

Well, thank you very much for participating, for your question, for your reports. And I take the opportunity to thank also all the team of Vista that have made this 2024 possible. It was a difficult plan to deliver. We intentionally not, but we make it happen. So thanks to them and all the great people that work with us.

Thank you very much, and have a good day.

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.