Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Vermilion Q2 2026 conference call. (Operator Instructions) This call is being recorded on July 30, 2026. I would now like to turn the conference over to Dion Hatcher, President and CEO. Please go ahead.

各位女士、各位先生，早安，歡迎參加 Vermilion 2026 年第二季電話會議。(接線員指示) 本次電話會議將於 2026 年 7 月 30 日錄音。現在我想把會議交給總裁兼執行長 Dion Hatcher。請開始。

Thank you. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I’m Dion Hatcher, President and CEO of Vermilion Energy. With me today are Lars Glemser, Vice President and CFO; Darcy Kerwin, Vice President, International and HSE; Brandon McQuaid, Vice President, North America; Lara Conrad, Vice President, Business Development; and Travis Thorgeirson, Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Planning.

謝謝。各位女士、各位先生，早安。我是 Vermilion Energy 的總裁兼執行長 Dion Hatcher。今天與我一同出席的有：副總裁兼財務長 Lars Glemser；國際與 HSE（健康、安全與環境）副總裁 Darcy Kerwin；北美副總裁 Brandon McQuaid；業務發展副總裁 Lara Conrad；以及投資人關係與企業規劃總監 Travis Thorgeirson。

Please refer to the advisory on forward-looking statements in our Q2 release. It describes forward-looking information, non-GAAP measures, and oil and gas terms used today. It outlines the risk factors and assumptions relevant to this discussion. Second quarter of 2026 was another strong quarter for Vermilion, with production averaging 125,800 BOEs per day, exceeding the top end of our guidance range. Positive results across our portfolio continue to support performance that is trending ahead of our five-year plan that we communicated during our Investor Day in December of 2025.

請參閱我們第二季新聞稿中關於前瞻性陳述的提示。其中說明了今日使用的前瞻性資訊、非 GAAP 衡量指標，以及油氣相關用語。並概述了與本次討論相關的風險因素與假設。2026 年第二季對 Vermilion 而言再度是強勁的一季，產量平均為每日 125,800 BOE，超出我們指引區間的上緣。我們投資組合各項資產的正面成果，持續支撐公司表現，並呈現領先於我們在 2025 年 12 月投資人日所溝通之五年計畫的趨勢。

With this current performance in mind, with significant progress in debt reduction, we have increased our return on capital target in a range of 40% to 60% of excess free cash flow, up from 40% previously. Production performance is driven by record output at Mica Montney, continued strong execution in the Deep Basin, and the stage restart of production in Australia following the back-to-back cyclones earlier this year. Based on operational performance year to date, we have increased our full year production guidance, now 121,000 to 123,000 BOEs per day, while maintaining our E&D capital budget range of CAD600 million to CAD630 million. Our E&D capital expenditures and operating expenses are weighted towards the second half of the year. We expect full year costs to be within the stated guidance ranges for these items.

考量目前的營運表現，以及在降債方面取得的重大進展，我們已將資本回饋目標提高至超額自由現金流的 40% 至 60%（先前為 40%）。產量表現主要由 Mica Montney 創紀錄的產出、Deep Basin 持續強勁的執行力，以及今年稍早連續颶風後澳洲分階段恢復生產所帶動。基於年初至今的營運表現，我們上調全年產量指引至每日 121,000 至 123,000 BOE，同時維持 E&D 資本預算區間為 6 億至 6.3 億加幣。我們的 E&D 資本支出與營運費用將較偏重於下半年。我們預期全年成本將落在上述各項指引區間內。

In the Montney, strong performance from the most recent B.C. six-well pad at 8035 drove quarterly production at Mica of 18,000 BOEs per day. The pad achieved an IP90 of more than 950 BOEs per day per well, comprised of 3 million a day of natural gas and 470 barrels per day of oil and NGLs, with DC cost reduced to CAD8.2 million per well. These results continue to support the quality, the repeatability, and the improving capital efficiency of our Montney inventory. In the Deep Basin, activity was moderated through spring breakup. The program continues to outperform budget expectations. This has been the primary driver of corporate production outperformance through the first half of the year. In Europe, following the quarter end, we achieved another important milestone in our German deep gas exploration program, with the Wisselshorst well being brought on to production in July.

在 Montney，B.C. 最新的 8035 六口井井場表現強勁，帶動 Mica 本季產量達每日 18,000 BOE。該井場的 IP90 超過每口井每日 950 BOE，其中包含每日 300 萬立方英尺天然氣，以及每日 470 桶原油與 NGL（天然氣液），且 DC 成本降至每口井 820 萬加幣。這些成果持續印證我們 Montney 庫存的品質、可重複性，以及資本效率的提升。在 Deep Basin，春季解凍期使作業活動有所放緩。該計畫持續優於預算預期。這是今年上半年公司整體產量超越預期的主要驅動因素。在歐洲方面，於季後我們在德國深層天然氣探勘計畫達成另一項重要里程碑：Wisselshorst 井於 7 月投產。

This represents the first production from the largest discovery Vermilion has made in Europe to date. I would like to take this opportunity to thank our teams for their commitment to safe operations during the many steps required to bring this well in production. We are excited about the next steps, debottlenecking the production with a new sales pipeline, as well as drilling the next two wells on this license in 2027. Elsewhere, the Osterheide well continues to perform in line with prior quarter rates, with cumulative free cash flow of CAD43 million since startup. We expect production growth in Germany to be driven by our deep gas exploration program, reaching 10,000 BOEs per day by 2030, given the significant resource continuing to grow into the next decade. Also in Germany, we closed the previously announced bolt-on acquisition following quarter end.

這是 Vermilion 迄今在歐洲所做出的最大發現之首次產出。我想藉此機會感謝我們的團隊，在使該井投產所需的多個步驟中，始終致力於安全作業。我們對下一步感到振奮，包括透過新銷售管線為產量去瓶頸，以及於 2027 年在該許可區再鑽兩口井。此外，Osterheide 井的表現仍與前一季的產量水準一致，自投產以來累計自由現金流達 4,300 萬加幣。我們預期德國的產量成長將由深層天然氣探勘計畫所帶動，鑑於可觀資源量並將延續成長至下一個十年，目標於 2030 年達到每日 10,000 BOE。同樣在德國，我們於季後完成先前公告的附加收購（bolt-on acquisition）。

The transaction adds approximately 1,000 BOEs per day of production, weighted 85% to natural gas, as well as ownership of key infrastructure around the Osterheide well. Adding production from Wisselshorst and these acquired assets is particularly impactful with the recent rally in European gas prices, currently over CAD25 per MMBtu through winter 2026. European storage levels are well below average for this time of year. The current pace of refilling is not sufficient to reach the 80% target before winter. We plan to increase our domestic gas production through debottlenecking the infrastructure as well as exploration development across our significant land base in both Germany and the Netherlands. With a growing prospect list of high return capital-efficient targets, Vermilion is well positioned to grow our production and free cash flow while providing our communities with a reliable source of energy.

該交易新增約每日 1,000 BOE 的產量，其中 85% 為天然氣，並取得 Osterheide 井周邊關鍵基礎設施的所有權。在近期歐洲天然氣價格上漲的背景下，加入 Wisselshorst 的產量以及本次收購資產的產量尤具影響力；目前 2026 年冬季期間價格已超過每 MMBtu 25 加幣。就每年此時而言，歐洲儲氣水準明顯低於平均。目前的回補速度不足以在冬季前達到 80% 的目標。我們計畫透過基礎設施去瓶頸，以及在德國與荷蘭兩地廣大土地基礎上的探勘與開發，提升我們的本土天然氣產量。憑藉持續增加的高報酬、資本效率佳的目標清單，Vermilion 已具備良好條件，在提升產量與自由現金流的同時，為我們的社區提供可靠的能源來源。

In Australia, production operations at Wandoo safely resumed following repair work completed during the quarter. Our next export is planned for the third quarter. We expect to return to more regular exports thereafter. Our five-year plan continues to progress well. Operational execution across the portfolio, combined with the first production from Wisselshorst and continued success in the Deep Basin and Montney, reinforces our confidence in the ability to generate growing free cash flow. Before I pass it to Lars to further discuss these results, I want to take a moment and acknowledge the challenges faced by several of our employees, contractors, and their families that have been impacted by the fires in southern France. Our thoughts are with you. We hope the situation continues to improve in the upcoming days.

在澳洲，Wandoo 的生產作業於本季完成修復工程後已安全恢復。我們下一次出口預計安排在第三季。其後我們預期將回到較為規律的出口節奏。我們的五年計畫持續進展順利。投資組合各項資產的營運執行力，加上 Wisselshorst 的首次產出，以及 Deep Basin 與 Montney 的持續成功，進一步強化我們對於創造成長型自由現金流能力的信心。在我把時間交給 Lars 進一步說明這些成果之前，我想花點時間關心並致意：我們有數位員工、承包商及其家人受到法國南部野火影響，面臨挑戰。我們與各位同在。我們希望未來幾天情勢能持續改善。

Thank you, Dion. In the second quarter, Vermilion generated fund flows from operations of CAD231 million on E&D capital expenditures of CAD110 million, resulting in free cash flow of over CAD120 million. Capital allocation remains focused on disciplined investment, continued balance sheet improvement, and shareholder returns. During the quarter, net debt was reduced by approximately CAD70 million to CAD1.22 billion. As of June 30th, 2026, net debt to trailing four-quarter fund flows from operations was 1.3 times. Over the past five quarters, Vermilion has reduced debt by approximately CAD840 million, accelerating progress toward our CAD1 billion net debt target and significantly strengthening the balance sheet. This continued de-leveraging has also reduced structural financing costs, with unit interest expense declining approximately 35% from the prior year. We are on track to reduce full-year interest expense by CAD30 million from 2025.

謝謝你，Dion。第二季，Vermilion 在 E&D 資本支出 1.10 億加幣的情況下，營運活動資金流入（fund flows from operations）為 2.31 億加幣，因而產生超過 1.20 億加幣的自由現金流。資本配置仍聚焦於嚴謹的投資紀律、持續改善資產負債表，以及股東回饋。本季淨負債約減少 7,000 萬加幣至 12.2 億加幣。截至 2026 年 6 月 30 日，淨負債相對於過去四季營運活動資金流入的倍數為 1.3 倍。過去五個季度，Vermilion 已將負債降低約 8.40 億加幣，加速朝 10 億加幣淨負債目標邁進，並顯著強化資產負債表。持續去槓桿也降低了結構性融資成本，單位利息費用較去年下降約 35%。我們正按計畫在全年將利息費用較 2025 年減少 3,000 萬加幣。

Reflecting this progress, as well as improved visibility to future cash flow and confidence in the sustainability of the business, we have enhanced our return to capital framework. Vermilion now intends to return 40% to 60% of excess free cash flow to shareholders compared to the previous target of 40%. This framework continues to be supported by our base dividend and ongoing share repurchase program. Subsequent to the quarter, we announced the renewal of our NCIB out to July 2027. During the quarter, we returned approximately CAD26 million to shareholders through dividends of CAD21 million and CAD5 million of share repurchases. With the increased return of capital target, we expect the pace of share buybacks to increase.

反映上述進展，以及對未來現金流能見度的提升與對業務可持續性的信心，我們已強化資本回饋架構。Vermilion 現在擬將超額自由現金流的 40% 至 60% 回饋給股東，相較先前目標為 40%。此架構仍由我們的基本股利以及持續進行的庫藏股回購計畫所支撐。在季後，我們宣布將 NCIB 延長續期至 2027 年 7 月。本季我們透過發放 2,100 萬加幣股利及 500 萬加幣股票回購，合計約 2,600 萬加幣回饋股東。隨著資本回饋目標提高，我們預期股票回購的速度將加快。

Turning to commodity risk management, Vermilion recognized a gain on hedging during the quarter as a realized loss of CAD57 million was more than offset by unrealized mark-to-market gains of CAD174 million on our hedge portfolio. These unrealized gains reflect changes in forward commodity prices relative to our hedge position at March 31, 2026.

轉向商品風險管理方面，Vermilion 在本季於避險上確認了收益，因為已實現損失 5,700 萬加元，已被我們避險投資組合中 1.74 億加元的未實現按市價評價收益所抵銷且有餘。這些未實現收益反映了截至 2026 年 3 月 31 日，遠期商品價格相對於我們避險部位的變動。

Our percentage of production hedged will decrease in the second half of 2026 relative to the second quarter levels, which increases our exposure to current elevated commodity prices. Operationally, Canadian production averaged 99,605 BOE per day during the quarter, which included record production from Mica. We continue to actively manage AECO exposure and prioritize profitability over production during periods of weaker natural gas pricing. We maintained strong well performance and continued to shift Deep Basin activity toward liquids-rich opportunities in the Rock Creek, Niton, and Ellerslie.

相較於 2026 年第二季的水準，我們在 2026 年下半年的產量避險比例將下降，這將提高我們對目前仍處於高位的商品價格之曝險。營運方面，本季加拿大產量平均為每日 99,605 BOE，其中包含 Mica 的創紀錄產量。我們持續積極管理 AECO 曝險，並在天然氣價格較疲弱的期間，以獲利能力優先於產量。我們維持強勁的井況表現，並持續將深盆地（Deep Basin）作業轉向 Rock Creek、Niton 與 Ellerslie 等富含液體的機會。

Several of our wells in Canada, in both the Deep Basin and Montney, ranked among the most prolific wells brought online during the quarter. In Europe, in addition to our work getting Wisselshorst online and preparing for follow-up drilling, our activity this quarter focused on workovers, maintenance programs, and preparation for drilling activities in the Netherlands during the second half of 2026. These activities, together with production from Wisselshorst and Osterheide, support the continued development of our European gas platform. Looking ahead, we expect third quarter production to average between 116,000 and 118,000 BOE per day, reflecting planned maintenance activities in Ireland, Germany, and Canada. This is consistent with our assumptions at the time of the budget release. We expect Q4 production to be approximately 122,000 BOE per day, with European gas production back in line with first half levels.

我們在加拿大的多口井（涵蓋深盆地與 Montney）名列本季投產井中產能最為突出的行列。在歐洲方面，除推進 Wisselshorst 投產並為後續鑽井做準備外，本季工作重點在修井（workovers）、維護計畫，以及為 2026 年下半年在荷蘭的鑽井活動做準備。上述活動連同 Wisselshorst 與 Osterheide 的產量，共同支持我們歐洲天然氣平台的持續發展。展望未來，我們預期第三季產量平均介於每日 116,000 至 118,000 BOE，反映愛爾蘭、德國與加拿大的計畫性維護活動。這與我們在發布預算時的假設一致。我們預期第四季產量約為每日 122,000 BOE，歐洲天然氣產量將回到與上半年相當的水準。

For the full year, production guidance has been increased to 121,000 to 123,000 BOE per day, while E&D capital expenditure guidance remains unchanged at CAD600 million to CAD630 million. Both operating expenses and capital expenditures are expected to be weighted toward the second half of the year, as Dion previously noted. The increased production guidance reflects our strong operational performance year to date, which has more than offset the impact of back-to-back cyclones in Australia earlier this year. We are confident in the ability of the company to continue to deliver on our Investor Day outlook. I will now pass it back to Dion.

就全年而言，產量指引已上調至每日 121,000 至 123,000 BOE，而勘探與開發（E&D）資本支出指引維持不變，為 6.00 億至 6.30 億加元。如 Dion 先前所述，營運費用與資本支出預期將偏重於下半年。上調產量指引反映我們今年迄今強勁的營運表現，已不僅抵銷今年稍早澳洲連續兩次氣旋的影響。我們對公司持續達成投資人日展望的能力充滿信心。我現在把時間交回給 Dion。

Thank you, Lars. In summary, Vermilion delivered another strong quarter and made significant progress executing our five-year plan. Production exceeded the top end of our guidance range, free cash flow totaled CAD122 million, and net debt was reduced by another CAD70 million. These results reflect the strength of our asset base, the quality of our teams, and our disciplined approach to capital allocation. Vermilion continues to focus on what we can control. As a result, we’re seeing structural improvements in the business through stronger capital efficiency, improving well performance, and lower controllable costs, which improves our full-cycle margins. Operationally, record production at Mica continued Deep Basin in performance and the successful restart of Wandoo support strong results across the portfolio. In Europe, we achieved first production of Wisselshorst, marking another important milestone in executing our long-term European gas growth strategy.

謝謝你，Lars。總結來說，Vermilion 再度交出強勁的一季，並在執行我們五年計畫方面取得重大進展。產量超出我們指引區間上緣，自由現金流合計 1.22 億加元，淨負債再降低 7,000 萬加元。這些成果反映我們資產基礎的實力、團隊的品質，以及我們在資本配置上的紀律。Vermilion 持續專注於我們可控的事項。因此，我們正透過更高的資本效率、改善的井況表現，以及更低的可控成本，看到業務的結構性改善，進而提升我們的全週期利潤率。在營運方面，Mica 的創紀錄產量、深盆地的持續優異表現，以及 Wandoo 的成功重啟，支撐了整體投資組合的強勁成果。在歐洲，我們實現 Wisselshorst 的首次產氣，這是執行我們長期歐洲天然氣成長策略的另一個重要里程碑。

Financially, our balance sheet continues to strengthen with approximately CAD840 million of debt reduction achieved over the past five quarters. As leverage declines and visibility to growing free cash flow continues to improve, we’re increasing our shareholder return framework to target 40% to 60% of excess free cash flow. Looking forward, operational momentum remains strong. Production performance for the first half of 2026 has allowed us to increase annual guidance without increasing capital expenditure. Supported by a repositioned portfolio, growing European gas exposure, a strengthening balance sheet, and a disciplined capital allocation framework We believe Vermilion is well positioned to continue generating sustainable free cash flow and shareholder value. With that, we will now open the line for questions.

在財務方面，我們的資產負債表持續強化，過去五個季度累計減債約 8.40 億加元。隨著槓桿下降且對自由現金流成長的能見度持續提升，我們將股東回饋框架提高，目標為將超額自由現金流的 40% 至 60% 回饋股東。展望未來，營運動能依然強勁。2026 年上半年產量表現使我們得以在不增加資本支出的情況下上調全年指引。在投資組合重新定位、歐洲天然氣曝險增加、資產負債表走強，以及具紀律的資本配置框架支持下，我們相信 Vermilion 已具備良好條件，持續創造可持續的自由現金流與股東價值。接下來，我們將開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) Menno Hulshof, TD Cowen.

（接線員指示）Menno Hulshof，TD Cowen。

Thanks, and good morning, everyone. I’ll start with the question on the higher level operational setup through the middle of next year, and you did touch on this to some degree in your opening remarks. I understand that you can’t provide guidance for 2027, but beyond turnarounds this quarter, is there any significant downtime or other considerations we should be aware of between now and the middle of next year? And I think you did guide Q4, but what could the exit rate look like for this year?

謝謝，大家早安。我先從明年年中之前較高水準的營運配置問題開始，你們在開場致詞中也有某種程度提到。我理解你們無法提供 2027 年的指引，但除了本季的歲修/停工（turnarounds）之外，從現在到明年年中之間，是否還有任何重大停產時間或其他我們需要留意的事項？另外，我想你們已提供第四季指引，但今年的年末退出產量（exit rate）可能會是什麼樣子？

Great, Menno. Thanks for that. A couple of comments. To your point, I think the turnarounds that we’re planning for and executing here in this quarter, Ireland’s a great example. That is a five-year cycle on that turnaround, that would be very unique, but something we plan for on that key asset. Looking out from now into mid-2027, the answer is no. We don’t see any key downtime. Quick answer is no.

很好，Menno。謝謝你的問題。我補充幾點。就你提到的部分，我認為我們在本季規劃並執行的歲修/停工，愛爾蘭就是很好的例子。那是一個五年一次的週期，屬於非常特殊，但我們會針對這項關鍵資產事先規劃。從現在往前看到 2027 年年中，答案是否定的。我們不認為會有任何關鍵的停產時間。簡短回答：沒有。

The setup, we’re quite excited. If you look at the exit rate, Lara’s referenced this, we’re back to 122 or better. If you reference back to European gas, what does that mean for our business? The first half, we were 95 million a day-100 million a day. Hopefully, we’re on the higher end of that range as we exit this year. We’ll get these turnarounds behind us and I think have a strong Q4, and that really is a good setup going into 2027.

就整體配置而言，我們相當振奮。如果你看年末退出產量，Lara 已提到，我們回到 122 或更高。如果回到歐洲天然氣來看，這對我們的業務意味著什麼？上半年我們是每天 9,500 萬到 1 億（的水準）。希望在今年結束時，我們能落在該區間的較高端。我們會把這些歲修/停工處理完，我認為第四季會很強勁，而這也確實為邁入 2027 年奠定良好基礎。

Terrific. Second question is on the Germany drilling program. Can you maybe just remind us of how you manage the risk on these larger wells, including the two that will get drilled next year? I understand there’s the farm down component, maybe you could just remind us of the broader risk mitigation strategy and maybe also the math on the out-of-pocket cost of Vermilion in the event of a dry hole. Because if I recall, it’s significantly lower than the actual well cost. Thank you.

太好了。第二個問題是關於德國鑽井計畫。你能否提醒我們，你們如何管理這些較大型井的風險，包括明年將鑽的兩口井？我理解其中有 farm down（分出權益）這個部分，或許你可以再提醒我們更廣泛的風險緩解策略，以及如果鑽到乾井（dry hole），Vermilion 需要自掏腰包的成本如何計算。因為如果我沒記錯，那個金額會顯著低於實際的單井成本。謝謝。

Thanks, Menno. A lot of good questions there. First of all, I think it comes down to the quality of the team and the G&G and the science and the decades that we have, multiple decades of working on these structures in Europe. This particular formation, the Rotliegend, is something we’ve been drilling for decades. Second, I would say we’re in a proven fairway. When you look at some of those maps where we’re drilling these structures, it is not uncommon. There’s multiple, let’s call it, a handful of structures that have cumulatively produced over TCF. If you’re going to find big oil, big gas, start drilling in areas where there’s been big gas found. We’re excited about the setup. As to how we look at the risk-reward, let’s call it. First is economically.

謝謝，Menno。裡面有很多好問題。首先，我認為關鍵在於團隊的品質、地質與地球物理（G&G）能力、科學方法，以及我們在歐洲研究這些構造累積的數十年、甚至多個數十年的經驗。這個特定地層——Rotliegend——我們已鑽探了數十年。第二，我會說我們位於已被證實的有利帶（proven fairway）。當你看我們鑽探這些構造的一些地圖時，這並不罕見。有多個——我們姑且稱之為一小撮——構造，累計產量已超過 1 TCF。如果你要找到大型油氣，就從曾經發現大型天然氣的區域開始鑽。我們對這個布局感到興奮。至於我們如何看待風險報酬，我們姑且這麼說。第一是經濟性。

If you think about the cost to drill these wells at CAD50 million, our target rate is 30 BCF recoverable. Wisselshorst, of course, is twice that. If you spend CAD50 million in the success case, and that gets you the drill, the test, the on-lease gas plant, the pipeline, for CAD50 million and you get 30 BCF of gas, that’s CAD1.15 MCF. If you assume gas prices are CAD13, and of course, they’re more than double that now, if at CAD13, the NPV per well is CAD60 million, right? You can see with Osterheide, it’s been on for a year and it’s cummed over CAD40 million of free cash flow, and the well hasn’t started to decline yet. The success case, I think is pretty, hopefully, straightforward.

如果你想想鑽這些井的成本是5,000萬加幣，我們的目標是可採回收量30 BCF。當然，Wisselshorst 是其兩倍。如果在成功情境下你投入5,000萬加幣，而這筆金額涵蓋鑽井、測試、租約內天然氣處理廠、以及管線，花5,000萬加幣就能取得30 BCF 的天然氣，那就是每 MCF 1.15 加幣。如果你假設氣價是每單位13加幣——當然，現在已經是那個的兩倍以上——若以13加幣計，每口井的 NPV 是6,000萬加幣，對吧？你可以看到 Osterheide 已經上線一年，累計產生超過4,000萬加幣的自由現金流，而且這口井還沒有開始遞減。我認為成功情境應該相當——希望——直觀。

The failure case is we drill the well, we don’t like what we see, we get out of the well, it’s less than CAD15 million. Okay? The CAD50 million is the all-in success case. The dry hole case, let’s call it, is sub-15, so 15. The final point is commercially. When we drilled Wisselshorst, we knew that it was a very large structure, also we viewed that one as a little more higher risk, but it was big. Commercially, we did use a farm in to provide a promote, and with that carry, it effectively meant that the after-tax dry hole cost was zero. Right? Or less than zero, maybe. That’s another quiver in our strategy here, is we can use farm ins. They’re good prospects. We’re going to drill these prospects.

失敗情境是我們鑽了井，但不喜歡看到的結果，就退出該井，成本低於1,500萬加幣。好嗎？5,000萬加幣是全包的成功情境成本。所謂乾井情境，我們就稱它為低於1,500萬，也就是1,500萬。最後一點是商業面。當我們鑽 Wisselshorst 時，我們知道那是一個非常大的構造；我們也認為那個案子風險稍高一些，但規模很大。在商業安排上，我們確實使用了 farm-in 來提供 promote，而在那個 carry 的安排下，稅後乾井成本實際上為零。對吧？或者甚至可能小於零。這也是我們在此策略中的另一個工具：我們可以使用 farm-in。它們是很好的標的。我們會去鑽這些標的。

If someone wants to come in and leverage some of the great work we’ve done, commercially, we can further reduce our risk. Hopefully, that gives you right from, hey, we’re looking for big targets in the area where big gas has been found. We’ve got a team that’s been doing this for decades. We’ve done all the technology and reprocessed seismic, the failure case is sub-15, commercially, we can further mitigate that failure case with a promoter carry.

如果有人想進來、利用我們已完成的一些出色工作，從商業角度我們可以進一步降低風險。希望這能讓你理解：我們在已發現大型天然氣的區域尋找大型目標。我們有一支做這件事數十年的團隊。我們做了所有技術工作並重新處理地震資料；失敗情境低於1,500萬；在商業面，我們可以透過 promote carry 進一步緩解該失敗情境。

Thanks for the rundown, Dion. I’ll pass it back.

謝謝你的概述，Dion。我把話交回去。

Greg Pardy, RBC Capital Markets.

RBC Capital Markets 的 Greg Pardy。

Thanks. Good morning. I want to stay just maybe on the back of Menno’s question, maybe just to stay with Germany for a minute. Just in terms of the next two exploration wells that you have planned for early next year, I am just wondering how far away those might be from Wisselshorst. Then in addition to that, maybe just any potential deep bottlenecking opportunities that you would have in that area, maybe just to increase rates and what is required to accomplish that.

謝謝。早安。我想延續 Menno 的問題，先在德國這邊再停留一下。就你們計畫明年初鑽的接下來兩口探勘井而言，我想知道它們大概距離 Wisselshorst 有多遠。另外，也想請教在該區域是否有任何潛在的深度去瓶頸（de-bottlenecking）機會，以提高產量，以及要達成這點需要做些什麼。

Thanks, Greg, for those questions. I’m going to pass it over to Darcy to just talk about the location of the next two Wisselshorst wells and some of the steps, as noted, for the de-bottlenecking of the gas.

謝謝你提出這些問題，Greg。我把問題交給 Darcy，請他談談接下來兩口 Wisselshorst 井的位置，以及如你所提到的，天然氣去瓶頸的一些步驟。

Greg, thanks for that. To answer your first question, those next two wells are located on a common pad, so they’ll be drilled together on one pad. That location is between one and two kilometers away from the original Wisselshorst discovery well, as the crow flies. In terms of de-bottlenecking the first Wisselshorst well that we brought online, we are in the process of permitting, acquiring land to build a new sales pipeline for that well. We expect that that pipeline be online, ready for service towards the end of next year. We do, for the next two new wells, have a plan for an initial gas plant on that one site to capture their production.

Greg，謝謝。回答你的第一個問題，那兩口下一步的井位於同一個井場（pad），所以會在同一個井場一起鑽。就直線距離而言，那個位置距離原始的 Wisselshorst 發現井約1到2公里。至於我們已投產的第一口 Wisselshorst 井的去瓶頸，我們正在辦理許可並取得土地，以便為該井建造一條新的銷售管線。我們預期該管線會在明年年底左右上線、可投入服務。至於接下來兩口新井，我們計畫在同一個場址先建一座初期的天然氣處理廠，以接收它們的產量。

We have the opportunity to twin that gas plant on that site if we have strong results there. That sales pipeline that we’re building for Wisselshorst 1 will also be the sales point for the next two wells in Wisselshorst. Lots of opportunity to de-bottleneck that area next year with this sales pipeline and then hopefully a new gas plant for those next two wells in a success case.

如果那裡的結果強勁，我們有機會在該場址把那座天然氣處理廠做成雙線配置（twin）。我們為 Wisselshorst 1 建造的那條銷售管線，也將成為 Wisselshorst 接下來兩口井的銷售交付點。明年透過這條銷售管線，以及在成功情境下為那兩口新井建一座新的天然氣處理廠，該區域有很多去瓶頸的機會。

Thanks, Darcy. To summarize there that sales line, it’s a 12-inch piece of pipe. I think all the material is ordered. We’re going to plan to start construction here early next year. As Darcy noted, that’ll allow us to open that well up and get it up to that full 16, 17 million a day design rate. Further on that is this twinning of the infrastructure that Darcy mentioned. Effectively, you’re able to double, to go from 17 to 34 million a day with the amount of gas we’ve got behind pipe. First step, Greg, to your point is, as Darcy mentioned, is getting that 12-inch pipe in the ground, and we’re well on our routes to do that.

謝謝，Darcy。總結一下，那條銷售管線是一段12吋管線。我想所有材料都已經下單了。我們計畫明年初開始施工。如 Darcy 所說，這將讓我們能把那口井開大，提升到每天1,600萬到1,700萬的設計滿載產量。再往下就是 Darcy 提到的基礎設施雙線化。實際上，憑藉我們管線後方的氣量，你可以把日產量從1,700萬翻倍到3,400萬。第一步，Greg，正如你所說、也如 Darcy 提到的，就是把那段12吋管線埋入地下，而我們正順利推進。

Okay, terrific. Yeah. No, thanks for that. Maybe just staying with Europe, maybe just moving into the Netherlands. In the past, you probably drilled potentially smaller prospects. Now, what I understand is you’re drilling maybe perhaps fewer, but bigger prospects. Am I thinking about that the right way? Just any color around that would be great.

好的，很棒。是的。謝謝你的說明。也許再談歐洲，轉到荷蘭。過去你們可能鑽的是相對較小的標的。而我理解現在你們可能鑽更少、但更大的標的。我這樣理解對嗎？如果能補充一些背景會很有幫助。

Yeah. I’ll pass it back to Darcy. I think you can just unwind the clock a little. In the Investor Day, Geoff MacDonald would have talked a lot about this. The plot that I think he was emphasizing is these targets are two and a half to three times bigger than what we were targeting before. Darcy, you want to build on that?

是的。我把問題交回給 Darcy。我想你可以把時間往回拉一點。在投資人日（Investor Day）上，Geoff MacDonald 會談到很多這方面的內容。我想他強調的那張圖是：這些目標比我們以前鎖定的目標大約2.5到3倍。Darcy，你要補充一下嗎？

Yeah, sure. Thank you. Yeah, in the Netherlands, I think if we look back the last 10 years, as you said, the prospects we were drilling were getting smaller. That was really driven by an effort from the permitting side to stay drilling on existing leases in existing areas. We’ve been continuously pursuing drilling locations outside of those areas to access some of these bigger pools. The drilling that we have planned for later this year as well as next year, is on the back of that, where we are stepping out a little bit further from our existing operations and able to access bigger pools again in that area. Permitting for the wells that we have planned this year firmly in hand, we’re ready to go once we have the rig available towards the end of September.

好的，當然。謝謝。是的，在荷蘭，如果回顧過去10年，正如你所說，我們鑽的標的確實變得更小。那主要是因為在許可面，我們努力維持在既有區域、既有租約上進行鑽探。我們一直持續在那些區域之外尋找鑽井位置，以進入一些更大的氣藏。我們計畫在今年稍晚以及明年進行的鑽探，就是基於這個策略：我們會比既有營運範圍再往外跨出一些，從而能再次進入該區域更大的氣藏。今年計畫的井的許可已經確實到位；一旦我們在9月底左右有鑽機可用，就可以準備開鑽。

Wells for 2027 and 2028 are in the midst of permitting. We have everything in hand to drill the wells in 2027 and onward into 2028 in these bigger pools.

2027年與2028年的井目前正處於許可審批中。我們已具備所有條件，可在2027年鑽井並延續至2028年，在這些較大的儲集區進行作業。

Yeah, the team’s done great work again on the permitting, also the technical side, building on Darcy’s comments, to bring these larger structures forward. We’re quite excited to allocate capital there.

是的，團隊在許可審批方面再次做得非常出色，技術面也同樣如此；延續Darcy的評論，推動這些更大型的構造向前。我們對於在那裡配置資本感到相當振奮。

Got it. All right. Thank you very much, both of you.

了解。好。非常感謝你們兩位。

Great. Thanks, Greg.

很好。謝謝你，Greg。

(Operator Instructions) Dennis Hong, CIBC WM.

(接線員指示) Dennis Hong，CIBC WM。

Hi, good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. Sorry to keep focusing on Germany here. Obviously, a lot of kind of exciting things there. I was hoping to dig into the recent concessions that you’ve been awarded and how specifically you’re thinking about balancing, we’ll call it step outs or follow-up drilling, like things that you’re doing at the Bommelsen license, versus, we’ll call it little E exploration work to, again, further build out the depth of inventory that you have out in Germany, especially with the winning of these new concessions.

嗨，早安，謝謝讓我提問。抱歉我一直把焦點放在德國。顯然那邊有很多令人振奮的事情。我想更深入了解你們近期獲授的特許權，以及你們具體如何思考在所謂的延伸步出或後續鑽探（例如你們在Bommelsen許可區所做的事情）與我們稱之為小E的勘探工作之間的平衡；也就是再次進一步擴充你們在德國的庫存深度，特別是在拿下這些新特許權之後。

Thanks for that, Dennis. I can give you a good summary there. The team’s done a great job with the land we currently have, which is obviously a big number, over 1 million net acres, identifying those 9 structures, and we see up to 30 wells on those structures, and we’re excited to now develop Wisselshorst, but also test some of those additional 6 structures in the upcoming years. To build on that, deals like the one we closed, but also the new concessions, another 0.5 million net acres. The team will do, let’s call it more of that study G&G work, relatively low cost, pulling a lot of data. We’ll spend the next 2-3 years really defining the prospectivity, maturing prospectivity. You would look at the next couple of years after that to think about drill commitments and those kind of things.

謝謝你，Dennis。我可以在這裡給你一個很好的摘要。團隊在我們目前持有的土地上做得非常出色；這顯然是一個很大的規模，超過100萬淨英畝，辨識出那9個構造，我們看到在這些構造上最多可打30口井；我們很期待現在開發Wisselshorst，同時也在未來幾年測試另外6個構造中的一些。在此基礎上，像我們已完成交割的那筆交易，以及新的特許權，另外增加了50萬淨英畝。團隊將進行更多我們稱之為G&G（地球物理與地質）研究工作，成本相對較低，並彙整大量資料。接下來2到3年，我們會真正去界定其前景性並推進前景成熟度。再往後的幾年，你就會開始考慮鑽井承諾以及這類事項。

Really, we see this with the defined inventory that we’ve got, let’s call it a decade at a risk base. Things like this new concession is really extending that runway even further. I think, as we’re having this conversation 2 years from now, Dennis, we’ll be able to start to point to things on the map. Right now, it’s a lot of land in the fairway that we like. We’re going to spend 1-2 years just doing the G&G work to mature what we expect to be some prospects on that. It’s just really building on that decade that we’ve got in front of us. You’re going to see us test some new structures in the upcoming years, as well as develop the Wisselshorst.

實際上，以我們已界定的庫存來看，我們認為在風險基礎上大約有十年的跑道。像這次的新特許權，確實是把那條跑道再延長得更遠。我想，Dennis，等我們兩年後再談這件事時，我們就能開始在地圖上指出一些具體標的。目前它主要是我們喜歡的走廊帶（fairway）上的大量土地。我們會花1到2年先做G&G工作，讓我們預期的一些前景更成熟。這就是在我們眼前這十年基礎上再進一步加厚。未來幾年你會看到我們測試一些新構造，同時也會開發Wisselshorst。

Okay, great. I appreciate that color and context there, Dion. My next question focuses a little bit more on the balance sheet and allocation of free cash, allocation to shareholders. Obviously, you’ve continued to delever, and this is kind of a nice bump up in terms of directing 40% to 60% of excess free cash towards shareholder returns. Can you talk towards what kind of drives you to maybe a 40% versus a 60%? Is that more commodity or kind of value that you see in the shares? How do you think about the confidence that you build in terms of allocating more and more free cash to shareholders? Especially just given as you’ve improved, obviously, depth of inventory across the asset base and then continue to execute across the various assets, whether it be in Canada or in Europe, or Australia.

好的，很棒。Dion，謝謝你提供這些補充說明與背景。我的下一個問題更聚焦在資產負債表、自由現金的配置，以及對股東的分配。顯然你們持續去槓桿，而把超額自由現金中40%到60%導向股東回報，這在方向上是個不錯的提升。你能談談是什麼因素驅動你們可能選擇40%而不是60%嗎？這更多取決於商品價格，還是你們在股價中看到的價值？你們如何看待在把更多自由現金分配給股東方面所建立的信心？尤其是考量到你們已提升整體資產組合的庫存深度，並持續在各項資產上執行，不論是在加拿大、歐洲或澳洲。

Right. Lars can’t wait to answer that question. I’m going to pass it over to him.

好的。Lars 迫不及待想回答這個問題。我把問題交給他。

Great. Yeah. No, thanks, Dennis. I’ll just try to give a little bit of context in terms of how we arrived at the decision to move to 40% to 60%. Maybe two key data points that we look at. Obviously, the first one is just the status of the business today, in terms of where we’ve taken the balance sheet, the quality of inventory. What I’ll spend a bit more time on is just the rate of change of how we’ve gotten here. Made the comment in my remarks, we’ve reduced net debt by CAD840 million over the past 15 months. A lot of progress there made in a short period of time. You think back to 15 months as well, we had just closed the Westbrick acquisition, consolidated into a 1.2 million acres Deep Basin position.

很好。是的。不，謝謝你，Dennis。我會試著提供一些背景，說明我們如何做出把區間調整到40%到60%的決定。也許我們會看兩個關鍵數據點。第一個當然是公司目前的狀態：我們把資產負債表帶到什麼位置、庫存品質如何。我會多花一點時間談的是我們走到這裡的變化速度。我在發言中提到，過去15個月我們已將淨負債降低了8.40億加幣。在很短的時間內取得了很大進展。回想15個月前，我們才剛完成Westbrick收購，整合成在Deep Basin擁有120萬英畝的部位。

We still had some infrastructure spend in the Montney to execute on, some keypads to deliver on as well. We were still trying to quantify what we had in Germany. You fast-forward 15 months to the end of the second quarter here, I think a lot of boxes have been checked in a very short period of time. Those are the type of things that we want to look at. It’s sort of structurally, are we executing on the plan within the business? As we look back, we said, you know what? We are more comfortable increasing that return of capital. You’ll recall when we did the Westbrick acquisition, we temporarily reduced the return of capital from 50% to 40%. With those boxes checked, happy to move to the 40% to 60%.

我們在Montney仍有一些基礎設施支出需要執行，也有一些關鍵井台（keypads）要交付。我們也仍在嘗試量化我們在德國擁有的資源。把時間快轉15個月到第二季末，我認為在非常短的時間內，很多項目都已完成勾選。這些就是我們想要檢視的事情。從結構性角度來看，我們是否在業務內按計畫執行？回頭看，我們說，你知道嗎？我們更有信心提高資本回饋。你會記得，當我們進行Westbrick收購時，我們曾暫時把資本回饋比例從50%降到40%。在這些項目完成後，我們很樂意把區間調整到40%到60%。

Now, one thing that we are going to continue to maintain here is flexibility within that 40% to 60%. You think back to the second quarter here, lots of volatility, whether it was commodity pricewise, share pricewise. We want to maintain flexibility in terms of how we allocate capital over the longer term. With this announcement today, we are looking to increase what we’re allocating to shareholder returns. Then maybe just the last point I’ll make, Dennis, if you go back to the Investor Day last December, we laid out a framework of what we wanted to achieve here over the five-year plan in terms of end of 2030. I think we are well into that plan, delivering on that plan. We’ve been able to increase our guidance here in 2026 on the production side, maintain the capital as well.

另外，有一點我們會持續維持：在40%到60%之間保有彈性。回想第二季，波動很大，不論是商品價格或股價。我們希望在長期資本配置上保有彈性。隨著今天的公告，我們希望提高分配給股東回報的比例。最後一點，Dennis，如果你回到去年12月的投資人日，我們提出了一個框架，說明在五年計畫、也就是到2030年底，我們希望達成什麼。我認為我們已經深入推進該計畫，並正在交付成果。我們也已能在2026年把產量端的指引上調，同時維持資本支出不變。

We are looking at this from a long-term perspective, in terms of allocating that capital. Maybe just lastly, you asked about Australia as well, in terms of how we think about allocating capital. We continue to evaluate the prospect of drilling in Australia in 2027. With where oil prices are, we are leaning towards that being the right decision. As we foreshadowed in our Investor Day, that would push capital for 2027 into that CAD700 million range, something that we’ll manage within this framework. Anyways, I’ll maybe stop there, Dennis, just to see if there’s any follow-up.

我們是從長期角度來看待這件事，就資本配置而言。最後也許再補充一下，你也問到澳洲，關於我們如何思考資本配置。我們仍在評估於 2027 年在澳洲進行鑽探的前景。以目前油價水準來看，我們傾向認為這會是正確的決策。正如我們在投資人日所預告的，這將使 2027 年的資本支出推升至約 7 億加幣的區間，我們會在此框架內加以管理。總之，我先說到這裡，Dennis，看看你是否還有後續問題。

Yeah. I appreciate that color there, Lars. I guess that was kind of a little bit of a lead into my follow question is kind of how to think about 2027 CapEx. Again, as you see that kind of free cash flow rate of change in the second half of next year as you round out effectively Montney drilling and then I guess now this Australia program, does that help drive more comfort in maybe moving up that targeted range if the balance sheet improves and so forth? Is there going to be a balance in terms of where you want to really drive down net debt even further because, for whatever reason, on a go-forward basis?

是的。Lars，我很感謝你提供的這些補充說明。我想這也算是帶到我接下來的追問：該如何看待 2027 年的資本支出（CapEx）。再說一次，當你看到明年下半年自由現金流變動率的提升，因為你基本上完成了 Montney 的鑽井，然後我想現在又加上這個澳洲計畫，若資產負債表改善等等，這是否會讓你們更有信心把目標區間往上調？另外，在你們希望進一步降低淨負債的程度上，是否也會有一個平衡點，因為不管什麼原因，從未來的角度來看？

Yeah, no, I think you framed it very appropriately there. As we get into the second half of 2027 and then sort of, let’s call it the later three years of the five-year plan that we laid out Capital comes back into that CAD600 million to CAD630 million range as the business grows towards that 130,000 barrels a day. The reason that we are able to keep capital within that range, grow production, are for the reasons that you referenced there. Montney infrastructure spend starts to come down. We start to get some gas behind pipe in Germany online. We get the Australia drill behind us as well. Those will be the type of things that we look at. I think with the flexibility we have in the framework now, we don’t necessarily need to wait for those inflection points to buy back shares.

是的，我認為你這樣的表述非常恰當。當我們進入 2027 年下半年，然後也就是我們所提出的五年計畫中後三年的階段，隨著業務成長至每日 13 萬桶左右，資本支出會回到 6 億至 6.3 億加幣的區間。我們之所以能把資本控制在該區間內、同時提升產量，正是因為你剛才提到的那些原因。Montney 的基礎設施支出開始下降。我們在德國也會有更多天然氣透過管線上線。我們也會把澳洲的鑽探工作完成。這些都會是我們會觀察與評估的事項。我認為以我們目前框架的彈性而言，我們不一定需要等到那些拐點才開始回購股票。

If we want to be a bit more aggressive leading up to that, we have the capability within the framework here. The vice versa is also true in terms of targeting within that 40% to 60%.

如果我們想在那之前採取更積極的作法，我們在這個框架內也有能力做到。反過來也是一樣，也就是在 40% 到 60% 的目標區間內進行配置。

Maybe just to build on Lars’ comments there, because Lars would have presented a slide, it’s in our deck, that shows how that CAD1.7 billion of excess free cash flow potentially be allocated over that five-year timeframe. If you look at that plot, it shows the net debt getting down midpoint around CAD750 million. Shows the dividend, of course, lots of runway there. Then on share buybacks, right? We showed a range, but share count was coming down about 30%, right? Now, that, of course, would have been based on a CAD12 stock price, but that was based on CAD70 oil, that was based on CAD13 TTF. To summarize this, Lars’ points there as the business fundamentals continue to improve, as we return to capital, there’s more free cash on the system. We’re looking forward to returning more of that.

也許再補充 Lars 的評論，因為 Lars 之前展示過一張投影片（也在我們的簡報中），說明在五年期間內，這 17 億加幣的超額自由現金流可能如何分配。如果你看那張圖，會看到淨負債降到約 7.5 億加幣左右的中位數水準。也顯示了股利，當然，還有很大的提升空間。然後是股票回購，對吧？我們展示了一個區間，但股數大約會下降 30%，對吧？當然，那是以 12 加幣的股價為基礎，但同時也是以 70 加幣油價、以及 13 加幣的 TTF 為基礎。總結來說，隨著業務基本面持續改善、我們回饋資本，系統中的自由現金會更多。我們也期待能回饋更多。

Again, I think the IR day five-year plan is a good summary of what this business can deliver at reasonable commodity prices, i.e., CAD70 oil. It’s a big number, CAD1.7 billion of excess free cash flow over five years.

再次強調，我認為投資人日所提出的五年計畫，很好地總結了在合理的大宗商品價格（例如 70 加幣油價）下，這個業務能交付什麼成果。這是一個很大的數字：五年合計 17 億加幣的超額自由現金流。

Great. I appreciate the color, both of you. I’ll turn it back.

很好。我很感謝你們兩位提供的補充說明。我把時間交回去。

Thanks, Dennis.

謝謝你，Dennis。

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call over to Dion Hatcher for closing remarks. Please continue.

目前沒有其他問題。我現在把電話會議交給 Dion Hatcher 做結語。請繼續。

Thank you again for participating in our Q2 conference call. Enjoy the rest of your day.

再次感謝各位參與我們第二季（Q2）電話會議。祝各位今天剩下的時間愉快。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

各位女士、先生，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以掛線。