Vermilion Energy Inc (VET) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Vermilion Energy Inc. Year-End 2019 Earnings Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的支持，歡迎來到朱紅能源公司。2019 年底獲利結果電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Anthony Marino, President and CEO of Vermilion. Thank you. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給今天的發言人，Vermilion 總裁兼執行長安東尼馬裡諾 (Anthony Marino)。謝謝。請繼續。

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining us. I'm Tony Marino, President and CEO of Vermilion Energy. With me today are Mike Kaluza, Executive Vice President and COO; Lars Glemser, Vice President and CFO; Kyle Preston, Vice President of Investor Relations; and other members of our management team who may be called on during the Q&A session.

早安，女士們，先生們。感謝您加入我們。我是托尼·馬裡諾，Vermilion Energy 總裁兼執行長。今天與我在一起的有執行副總裁兼營運長 Mike Kaluza；拉爾斯‧格萊姆瑟 (Lars Glemser)，副總裁兼財務長；凱爾‧普雷斯頓 (Kyle Preston)，投資人關係副總裁；以及在問答環節中可能會被邀請的我們管理團隊的其他成員。

We will be referring to a PowerPoint presentation to discuss our fourth quarter 2019 financial and operating results and year-end reserves update. The presentation can be found on our website under Invest With Us and Events & Presentations.

我們將參考 PowerPoint 簡報來討論我們 2019 年第四季的財務和營運業績以及年末準備金更新。該簡報可以在我們的網站「與我們一起投資」和「活動與簡報」下找到。

Slides 2 and 3 in the presentation refer to our advisory on forward-looking statements. These advisories describe the forward-looking information, non-GAAP measures and oil and gas terms referred to today and outline the risk factors and assumptions relevant to this discussion.

簡報中的投影片 2 和 3 引用了我們對前瞻性陳述的諮詢。這些公告描述了今天提到的前瞻性資訊、非公認會計原則措施和石油和天然氣術語，並概述了與本次討論相關的風險因素和假設。

Let me start off with our dividend. Slide 4, dividend reduction. Our Board of Directors has approved a 50% reduction in our monthly dividend to $0.115 per share in response to the recent weakness in commodity prices resulting from the outbreak of the novel coronavirus, also known as COVID-19.

讓我從我們的股息開始。幻燈片 4，股利減少。我們的董事會已批准將每月股息減少 50% 至每股 0.115 美元，以應對近期因新型冠狀病毒（也稱為 COVID-19）爆發導致大宗商品價格疲軟。

We didn't take this decision lightly. It has been an extremely challenging environment ever since the oil price crashed in the second half of 2014. Throughout this period, we have maintained focus on profitability by grinding costs out of all phases of our business, ranging from field operations to financing expense, upgrading our capital project slate and adapting our capital markets model to focus even more acutely on returning capital to shareholders. We have been unique among our traditional competitor group in maintaining our dividend while still providing a moderate level of growth.

我們做出這個決定並非輕率之舉。自 2014 年下半年油價暴跌以來，環境一直極具挑戰性。在此期間，我們透過降低業務各個階段的成本（從現場運營到融資費用）、升級我們的資本項目清單以及調整我們的資本市場模式以更加專注於向股東返還資本來保持對盈利能力的關注。在我們的傳統競爭對手群體中，我們在保持股息的同時仍提供適度的增長水平方面是獨一無二的。

We have paid a monthly dividend or distribution in the trust era for the past 205 consecutive months, returning over $40 per share of dividends over this period. Despite the energy downturn, we put more production reserves and free cash flow behind each share, while employing dramatically lower capital budgets. We're proud of this record of returning capital to shareholders, while still providing per share growth. This model has kept us disciplined in a capital-intensive industry and has put substantial cash back in the hands of investors.

我們在過去連續 205 個月在信託時代每月支付股息或分配，在此期間每股回報超過 40 美元的股息。儘管能源低迷，我們仍為每股提供了更多的生產儲備和自由現金流，同時大幅降低了資本預算。我們為向股東返還資本、同時仍實現每股成長的記錄感到自豪。這種模式使我們在資本密集型行業中保持紀律，並將大量現金回饋給投資者。

However, the emergence of COVID-19 is an unanticipated event that has dramatically altered individual business and government behavior and has already had a substantial negative impact on global economic growth and commodity prices. As we consider today's economic and commodity outlook, we believe it is unlikely that we would achieve fully funded status for our previous dividend at a reasonable level of capital expenditures. Therefore, we have determined that a reduction to our dividend is the most prudent course at this time. The revised dividend will be effective for the March dividend payable on April 15, 2020.

然而，COVID-19 的出現是一個意想不到的事件，它極大地改變了個體企業和政府的行為，並已經對全球經濟成長和大宗商品價格產生了巨大的負面影響。當我們考慮到今天的經濟和大宗商品前景時，我們認為我們不太可能以合理的資本支出水準實現先前股息的充足資金狀態。因此，我們認為減少股利是目前最謹慎的做法。修改後的股利將於2020年4月15日支付的3月股利生效。

Slide 5, total payout ratio. At the commodity forward strip as of March 4, we estimate a 2020 payout ratio of 99%, including previously declared dividends for January and February. On a pro forma basis, annualizing the revised dividend, our 2020 total payout ratio would be approximately 94%. Excess cash generated beyond dividend, CapEx and ARO requirements will be allocated towards debt reduction, while retaining the option of buying back shares through our NCIB program in an improved macroeconomic environment.

投影片 5，總支付率。截至 3 月 4 日，我們預計 2020 年商品遠期派息率為 99%，其中包括先前宣布的 1 月和 2 月股息。根據預估，將修訂後的股息按年化計算，我們 2020 年的總派息率約為 94%。股利、資本支出和 ARO 要求之外產生的多餘現金將用於減少債務，同時保留在改善的宏觀經濟環境下透過我們的 NCIB 計劃回購股票的選擇。

Slide 6, dividend funding analysis. On this slide, we show a waterfall chart for fund flows from operations. The bars represent the evolution of our 2020 FFO estimates, including the major commodity price drivers of changes in forecasted FFO. The dash lines represent our combined CapEx, dividend and ARO outflows under our previous dividend and under our revised dividend. The first bar on the left represents our FFO estimate at the time of our budget release at the end of last October.

投影片 6，股利融資分析。在這張投影片上，我們展示了營運資金流的瀑布圖。這些長條圖代表了我們對 2020 年 FFO 預測的演變，包括預測 FFO 變化的主要商品價格驅動因素。虛線代表我們先前股息和修訂後股息下的合併資本支出、股息和 ARO 流出。左邊的第一個條代表我們去年 10 月底發布預算時的 FFO 估算。

As you can see, our $450 million capital program and $0.23 monthly dividend were funded at $55 WTI, which was approximately the oil price at that time. As we started 2020, oil prices moved higher, partially offset by lower gas prices. And our funding status continued to improve to an overfunded position, as represented by the FFO bar as of January 6. In that environment, we were confident in our ability to fund our capital program and pay our monthly dividend of $0.23, while still generating excess cash to reduce debt.

正如您所看到的，我們 4.5 億美元的資本計劃和 0.23 美元的每月股息是以 55 美元的 WTI 資金提供的，這大約是當時的油價。2020 年伊始，油價上漲，但部分被天然氣價格下跌抵銷。我們的融資狀況持續改善至資金過剩的狀況，如截至1 月6 日的FFO 條所示。在這種環境下，我們對自己為資本計畫提供資金並支付0.23 美元每月股息的能力充滿信心，同時仍產生超額收益現金以減少債務。

Today, we have a different picture following COVID-19. Oil prices have declined by more than $20 per barrel from the peak we saw earlier in the year, and natural gas prices have also further weakened since that time. It's not our belief that COVID-19 significantly alters the long-term prospects for the oil and gas industry. And ultimately, we expect a recovery and resumption of a positive trend for commodity prices. However, we do think the recovery in oil prices that we began to experience in 2020 will be pushed back for an unknown period.

今天，我們看到了新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 疫情之後的另一個景象。油價已較今年稍早的高峰每桶下跌超過 20 美元，天然氣價格自那時以來也進一步走弱。我們並不認為 COVID-19 會顯著改變石油和天然氣產業的長期前景。最終，我們預計大宗商品價格將復甦並恢復正面趨勢。然而，我們確實認為 2020 年開始經歷的油價復甦將被推遲一段未知的時間。

As you can see in the last FFO bar on the right side of the slide, at today's prices, we would be unable to fund our combined 2020 capital budget and previous dividend amount, represented by the upper dash line. However, with the revised dividend, represented by the lower dash line, we are fully funded at the forward strip.

正如您在幻燈片右側最後一個 FFO 欄中看到的那樣，按照今天的價格，我們將無法為 2020 年合併資本預算和之前的股息金額（由上方虛線表示）提供資金。然而，透過修改後的股利（由下方虛線表示），我們在前線地帶的資金充足。

Lastly, stacked on top of the final FFO bar, we also show sensitivities at $50 and $55 WTI for the rest of 2020, which would place us in an overfunded position with our revised dividend.

最後，在最終的 FFO 柱之上，我們還顯示了 2020 年剩餘時間 50 美元和 55 美元 WTI 的敏感性，這將使我們處於資金過剩的境地，調整後的股息。

We were always clear in stating that we would reevaluate the dividend in the event of a structural change in commodity prices that could affect our ability to self-fund. Furthermore, our philosophy is to prioritize balance sheet strength over other objectives, including either growth or dividends. This is why we've made the decision to reduce our monthly dividend by 50% to ensure that we maintain a strong balance sheet and position the company for long-term value creation. Should we experience an even more pronounced and protracted commodity downturn due to COVID-19 or any other cause, we'll be attentive to all forms of cash outlays, focusing first on capital investment levels to protect the financial position of the company.

我們始終明確表示，如果大宗商品價格發生結構性變化，可能影響我們的自籌資金能力，我們將重新評估股利。此外，我們的理念是將資產負債表實力優先於其他目標，包括成長或股利。這就是為什麼我們決定將每月股息減少 50%，以確保我們保持強勁的資產負債表，並使公司能夠創造長期價值。如果我們因 COVID-19 或任何其他原因而經歷更明顯和持久的大宗商品低迷，我們將關注所有形式的現金支出，首先關注資本投資水平，以保護公司的財務狀況。

Now we'll move on to our Q4 and full year 2019 results. Slide 7, Q4 and full year 2019 review. During 2019, Vermilion generated record cash flow, production and reserves despite a continued environment of challenging commodity prices. We recorded FFO of $908 million in 2019 on a capital program of $523 million, which translated to free cash flow generation of $385 million, the highest in our history. The resulting 2019 total payout ratio, including dividends and asset retirement obligations, was 103%. In Q4 2019, we generated $216 million of FFO, which was in line with the previous quarter despite an inventory build in Australia due to the timing of crude liftings.

現在我們將討論 2019 年第四季和全年業績。投影片 7，第四季和 2019 年全年回顧。2019 年，儘管大宗商品價格持續面臨挑戰，但 Vermilion 仍創造了創紀錄的現金流、產量和儲量。2019 年，我們在 5.23 億美元的資本計畫中實現了 9.08 億美元的 FFO，這相當於我們歷史上最高的 3.85 億美元的自由現金流生成。由此得出的 2019 年總股息率為 103%，包括股利和資產報廢義務。2019 年第四季度，我們產生了 2.16 億美元的 FFO，與上一季度持平，儘管澳洲因原油提貨時間而增加了庫存。

We delivered record production of 100,357 BOE/d in 2019, representing year-over-year growth of 15% or 5% on a per share basis. We achieved these results despite several unexpected operational challenges during the year, including a third-party refinery outage in France and uncharacteristic weather-driven delays in Canada.

2019 年，我們的產量達到創紀錄的 100,357 桶油當量/天，年增 15% 或每股成長 5%。儘管這一年中遇到了一些意想不到的營運挑戰，包括法國第三方煉油廠停駛以及加拿大因天氣原因造成的異常延誤，我們還是取得了這些成果。

Net debt in 2019 increased modestly to $2 billion. However, the net debt to trailing FFO ratio improved to 2.2x compared to 2.3x in 2018. In addition to an improving leverage profile, we also enhanced the quality of our balance sheet over the past year.

2019 年淨債務小幅增加至 20 億美元。然而，淨債務與追蹤 FFO 的比率從 2018 年的 2.3 倍改善至 2.2 倍。除了改善槓桿狀況外，過去一年我們還提高了資產負債表的品質。

We recently received commitments to renew our covenant-based credit facility for 4 years with a new maturity date of May 31, 2024. In addition, in June 2019, we executed a cross-currency interest rate swap on our 2025 USD 300 million long-term senior notes, converting our 5.625% interest cost on these notes to 3.275% for the remainder of their term. As a result of these initiatives, our pretax cost of debt today is approximately 3.2% with a weighted average remaining term of 4.4 years.

我們最近收到了將基於契約的信貸安排續約 4 年的承諾，新的到期日為 2024 年 5 月 31 日。此外，2019 年 6 月，我們對 2025 年 3 億美元長期優先票據執行了跨貨幣利率掉期，將這些票據的剩餘期限的利息成本從 5.625% 轉換為 3.275%。由於這些舉措，我們目前的稅前債務成本約為 3.2%，加權平均剩餘期限為 4.4 年。

Slide 8, Europe and Australia Q4 highlights. Our most notable activity in Europe during the fourth quarter was in the Netherlands, where we successfully drilled and completed the Weststellingwerf well, 0.5 net, representing our first drilling activity in that country since 2017. The well flowed at an initial gross rate of 14.7 million cubic feet per day and is expected to be brought on production during 2020.

幻燈片 8，歐洲和澳洲第四季亮點。第四季我們在歐洲最引人注目的活動是在荷蘭，我們在那裡成功鑽探並完成了 Weststellingwerf 井，淨產量為 0.5，這是我們自 2017 年以來在該國的首次鑽探活動。該井的初始總流量為每天 1,470 萬立方英尺，預計將於 2020 年投產。

In Germany, Q4 2019 production averaged 3,400 BOE/d, an increase of 3% from the prior quarter. The increase was primarily due to improved uptime on our operated oil and natural gas assets and partially offset by unplanned downtime on our nonoperated oil assets. Following the successful drilling of the Burgmoor Z5 well, 46% working interest in 2019, our partner group in this license has agreed to a tie-in plan, which should allow for production early next year.

在德國，2019年第四季平均產量為3,400桶油當量/天，較上一季成長3%。這一增長主要是由於我們營運的石油和天然氣資產的正常運行時間增加，部分被我們非營運石油資產的計劃外停機所抵消。繼 Burgmoor Z5 井成功鑽探（2019 年擁有 46% 的工作權益）之後，我們在該許可證中的合作夥伴集團已同意一項配套計劃，該計劃應可在明年初進行生產。

In CEE, we tied in the Mh-21, 0.3 net; and Battonya E-09, 1.0 net, wells in Hungary, drilled in the second and third quarters of 2019, respectively. The wells were brought on production mid-way through the fourth quarter of 2019 at restricted rates of approximately 600 BOE/d net for the 2 wells combined.

在中東歐，我們與 Mh-21 平，淨勝球 0.3；匈牙利的Battonya E-09井和Battonya E-09井分別於2019年第二季和第三季鑽探，淨值為1.0。這些井於 2019 年第四季中期投入生產，兩口井合計淨產量約為 600 桶油當量/天。

In Australia, we continued to benefit from strong pricing in our Wandoo crude, realizing an average premium of USD 6 per barrel over Dated Brent over the course of 2019. The strong relative pricing has continued in 2020, with our next cargo contracted at a premium of USD 24 per barrel over Dated Brent.

在澳大利亞，我們繼續受益於 Wandoo 原油的強勁定價，2019 年比即期布蘭特原油平均溢價為每桶 6 美元。2020 年，強勁的相對定價仍在繼續，我們的下一批船貨合約價格比即期布蘭特原油每桶溢價 24 美元。

Slide 9, North America Q4 highlights. In Canada, production averaged 58,600 BOE/d in Q4 2019, up slightly from the prior quarter. Strong results from new well completions in the quarter more than offset natural decline. During the quarter, we drilled one of our best ever condensate-rich Lower Mannville wells in Drayton Valley, Alberta, achieving an IP30 rate of approximately 1,900 BOE/d, 60% liquids.

投影片 9，北美第四季亮點。在加拿大，2019 年第四季平均產量為 58,600 桶油當量/天，較上一季略有上升。本季新完井的強勁業績足以抵銷自然下滑。本季度，我們在艾伯塔省德雷頓谷鑽探了有史以來最好的富含凝析油的下曼維爾井之一，實現了約 1,900 BOE/d 的 IP30 率，液體含量為 60%。

In Ferrier, we drilled a liquids-rich Upper Mannville well, which delivered an IP30 rate of approximately 1,800 BOE/d, 15% liquids. We are currently in the midst of a very active Q1 2020 drilling campaign in Canada, with rig activity in the quarter peaking at 6 rigs in Saskatchewan and 4 rigs in Alberta. We plan to complete the majority of our 2020 Canadian drilling program in the first quarter of the year in order to avoid potential delays from an extended spring breakup season or unseasonably wet summer weather.

在 Ferrier，我們鑽探了一口富含液體的 Upper Mannville 井，該井的 IP30 產量約為 1,800 BOE/d，液體含量為 15%。目前，我們在加拿大正處於非常活躍的 2020 年第一季鑽井活動中，本季的鑽機活動達到頂峰，薩斯喀徹溫省有 6 個鑽機，艾伯塔省有 4 個鑽機。我們計劃在今年第一季完成 2020 年加拿大鑽探計畫的大部分，以避免因春季斷裂季節延長或夏季異常潮濕天氣而造成的潛在延誤。

In the United States, Q4 2019 production averaged 5,700 BOE/d, representing an increase of 15% from the prior quarter. The increase was primarily due to a full quarter of contribution from the 4 wells we brought on production during the third quarter of 2019. These wells continue to perform in line with our type curves, achieving an average IP90 rate of approximately 450 BOE/d. We also began drilling 2 1.98 wells in December 2019, for which drilling finished in January 2020 and are currently undergoing completion.

在美國，2019年第四季產量平均為5,700桶油當量/天，較上一季成長15%。這一成長主要是由於我們在 2019 年第三季投產的 4 口井對整個季度的貢獻。這些井的表現繼續符合我們的類型曲線，平均 IP90 產量約為 450 BOE/d。我們也於 2019 年 12 月開始鑽探 2 口 1.98 井，於 2020 年 1 月完成鑽探，目前正在進行完井工作。

We have 2 rigs operating in our Hilight field in the Powder River Basin. Similar to our Canadian business unit, we plan to execute a front-end-weighted capital program in the United States, completing our 12-well, 11.9 net, 2020 drilling program in the first half of the year.

我們有 2 台鑽孔機在 Powder River 盆地的 Hilight 油田運作。與我們的加拿大業務部門類似，我們計劃在美國執行前端加權資本計劃，在今年上半年完成我們的 12 口、淨產量 11.9 口的 2020 年鑽井計劃。

Slide 10 and 11, 2019 reserves highlights. Proved plus probable reserves increased by 3% year-over-year to 501.2 million barrels of oil equivalent. The large majority of our new reserve additions were through organic activities, as we continue to enhance a recovery factor on existing assets and advanced resources to reserves in a number of our operating areas. We converted 36.8 million barrels of oil equivalent of previously booked resources into 2P reserves in 2019.

幻燈片 10 和 11，2019 年儲備亮點。探明及概算儲量年增 3%，達 5.012 億桶油當量。我們新增的儲量大部分是透過有機活動實現的，因為我們不斷提高現有資產的採收率，並將資源先進到我們多個作業區域的儲量。2019年，我們將3,680萬桶油當量的先前預訂資源轉換為2P儲量。

Looking at some of the reserve metrics on Slide 11. We replaced 120% of 2P reserves organically and added these new reserves at an organic F&D cost of $9.93 per BOE, including FDC, resulting in an operating recycle ratio of 3x and funds flow recycle ratio of 2.5x. Our F&D costs have been below $10 per BOE for the past 3 years, 3-year average F&D of $9.38 per BOE, including FDC, while growing our liquids weighting. Driven by a capital-efficient project slate and a continued focus on cost improvements, our 3-year organic operating recycle ratio stands at 3.2x.

請參閱投影片 11 上的一些儲備指標。我們有機地替換了 120% 的 2P 儲備，並以每個 BOE 的有機 F&D 成本 9.93 美元（包括 FDC）添加這些新儲備，從而實現了 3 倍的營運回收率和 2.5 倍的資金流回收率。過去 3 年，我們的 F&D 成本一直低於每桶油當量 10 美元，3 年平均每桶油當量的 F&D 成本為 9.38 美元，包括 FDC，同時增加了我們的液體重量。在資本效率高的項目清單和對成本改善的持續關注的推動下，我們的 3 年有機營運回收率達到 3.2 倍。

Before we open the line to questions, I'll return to where we started this call. Our dividend has been and remains a very important feature of our company. While our goal was to never reduce the dividend, we have always predicated its level on fundamental economic sustainability and maintaining our financial strength.

在我們開始提問之前，我將回到我們開始本次通話的地方。我們的股息一直是並且仍然是我們公司的一個非常重要的特徵。雖然我們的目標是永遠不減少股息，但我們始終將其水平取決於基本的經濟可持續性和維持我們的財務實力。

Despite 5 years of L-shaped recovery since the commodity crash in mid-2014, we were able to take enough unit cost out of our company to bring payout ratios down to approximately 100%, while still phasing out our DRIP programs. However, after the pronounced decline in the commodity markets and the economic uncertainty caused by coronavirus, we were no longer confident in our ability to internally fund the dividend at its previous level. Hence, we took the bitter pill of reducing our dividend by 50%.

儘管自 2014 年中期大宗商品崩盤以來經歷了 5 年的 L 型復甦，但我們仍能夠從公司中削減足夠的單位成本，將支付率降至約 100%，同時仍逐步取消我們的 DRIP 計劃。然而，在大宗商品市場大幅下滑以及冠狀病毒造成的經濟不確定性之後，我們對自己為先前水平的股息提供內部資金的能力不再充滿信心。因此，我們吃了苦果，將股息減少了 50%。

We believe in returning capital to the owners of Vermilion. We believe returning capital has a host of advantages in our integrated operating and capital market strategy. We will now go forward with our new monthly dividend based on the same principles as before, continuing to develop efficiencies in our operations, maximizing free cash flow and providing a meaningful income stream to our shareholders.

我們相信將資本返還給 Vermilion 的所有者。我們相信，返還資本在我們的綜合營運和資本市場策略中具有許多優勢。我們現在將按照與以前相同的原則繼續發放新的每月股息，繼續提高我們的營運效率，最大限度地提高自由現金流，並為我們的股東提供有意義的收入流。

That concludes my formal comments. We're happy to address questions. Operator, would you please open the phone line?

我的正式評論到此結束。我們很樂意解答問題。接線生，請您打開電話線好嗎？

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Dennis Fong of Canaccord Genuity.

（操作員說明） 第一個問題來自 Canaccord Genuity 的 Dennis Fong。

I've got a couple here. The first is just in terms of your current leverage position, obviously, kind of just given the oil price pullback just outside of your range. Can you kind of reiterate what the target is that you've kind of focused on here? I know you talked towards some of the abilities or the levers that you guys can pull towards moving towards that if we kind of stay in a protracted oil price environment similar to this one. And then I've got a second.

我這裡有一對。第一個是就您目前的槓桿部位而言，顯然，考慮到油價回檔超出了您的範圍。您能否重申一下您在這裡關注的目標是什麼？我知道你們談到了一些能力或槓桿，如果我們繼續處於與此類似的長期油價環境中，你們可以採取一些能力或槓桿來實現這一目標。然後我還有一點時間。

Yes. Well, first of all, our projected debt to FFO at the end of the year under the strip is about 2.9x cash flow, and our target is 1.5x debt to cash flow or FFO. It's our intent to self-fund. And under the strip we ran at the end of the day on Wednesday, we were at that level. Keep in mind that when we quoted the 99% number, that includes 2 months of dividends in January and February at a higher level. So under the prices that we had as of the end of the day on Wednesday, that would give us a payout ratio on a pro forma basis for the new dividend level of 94%. We do intend to remain self-funded, and we'll be looking closely at commodity prices, not reacting to any single day event. We do think, as I mentioned in the opening remarks, we do think that this, in the short to medium term, does qualify as a structural change in the market. And therefore, we made the response on the dividend because of that assessment that we had made.

是的。嗯，首先，我們預計年底 FFO 債務約為現金流量的 2.9 倍，我們的目標是債務與現金流量或 FFO 的 1.5 倍。我們的目的是自籌資金。週三一天結束時，我們在跑道下跑步，我們就處於那個水平。請記住，當我們引用 99% 的數字時，其中包括 1 月和 2 月較高的 2 個月股息。因此，根據截至週三收盤的價格，我們預期新股利水準的股利支付率為 94%。我們確實打算保持自籌資金，我們將密切關注大宗商品價格，而不是對任何單日事件做出反應。正如我在開場白中提到的，我們確實認為，從短期到中期來看，這確實符合市場的結構性變化。因此，由於我們所做的評估，我們對股息做出了回應。

We'll -- we're not going to make any further changes today to the -- to our outlays. We will be seeking to reduce cost where we can on the operating side of our business. With respect to the $450 million capital program that we have for the year, if we have continued additional weakness as we have seen in the last couple of days in the commodity, we would react on the capital program side. And I had a question about this earlier today, what the magnitude of that change could be. We haven't made any decisions. I think we'll complete our Q1 program. The -- we've always pointed out that the growth component of our budget for 2020 rates comes to about 5% of our CapEx. There's about another 5% that is devoted toward projects that have impacts beyond 2020. So our stay-flat CapEx for the year is about $410 million, and we would consider reductions in the capital program at that level or perhaps into the range of 15% of the capital program. We'd make that decision, I think, after completing the Q1 program and in time in the post-breakup period for us to adjust activity in Q2 and beyond. So Dennis, did that get your question there?

我們今天不會對我們的支出做出任何進一步的改變。我們將盡力降低業務營運方面的成本。就我們今年的 4.5 億美元資本計劃而言，如果我們像過去幾天在大宗商品中看到的那樣繼續疲軟，我們將在資本計劃方面做出反應。今天早些時候我對此有一個疑問，這種變化的幅度可能有多大。我們還沒有做出任何決定。我認為我們將完成第一季計劃。我們一直指出，2020 年費率預算的成長部分約佔資本支出的 5%。還有大約 5% 專門用於對 2020 年以後產生影響的項目。因此，我們今年保持不變的資本支出約為 4.1 億美元，我們會考慮將資本計畫削減到該水平，或可能減少到資本計畫的 15%。我認為，我們會在完成第一季計畫後做出這個決定，並在分手後及時調整第二季及以後的活動。丹尼斯，這是否引出了你的問題？

Yes, no, for sure. And then my second question is maybe shifting gears here to European natural gas pricing. Obviously, there's some near-term weakness there. And how should we be thinking about -- and there's still relative strength as we look further out down the curve. How should we be thinking about your hedging policy longer term? And how are you guys trying to kind of, we'll call it, moderate the risk around '21 and '22 volumes currently?

是的，不，當然。然後我的第二個問題是可能會轉向歐洲天然氣定價。顯然，近期存在一些疲軟。我們應該如何思考——當我們進一步觀察曲線時，仍然存在相對優勢。我們該如何考慮你們的長期避險政策？你們目前如何嘗試（我們稱之為）緩和「21」和「22」卷周圍的風險？

Okay. Yes, Dennis, I'm going to start off on this answer, and then I'll turn it over to -- in a minute to Adam Iwanicki, who is our Risk Manager and Marketing Director for the company. So the first comment is that -- and this is a part that I want Adam to cover in greater detail later. We do have a weak market in Europe, particularly for this winter and summer. The forward curve for European gas is in significant contango as you go into winter 2021. It's much higher for next summer than it is today and continues into contango as you go into the next winter. The forward curve, in our view, is reasonably reflective of the fundamentals of that market. It's -- European gas has a more active set of both novelty sellers, but also buyers who hedge into that market. And so you get a different market structure that has allowed for contango that does not exist in the oil markets where the -- really it's primarily -- the hedgers are primarily the sellers. And that's a market structure feature that has probably restricted the longer-term prices in oil.

好的。是的，丹尼斯，我將從這個答案開始，然後我會在一分鐘內將其轉交給 Adam Iwanicki，他是我們公司的風險經理和行銷總監。所以第一個評論是——這是我希望 Adam 稍後更詳細地介紹的部分。我們歐洲市場確實疲軟，尤其是今年冬天和夏天。隨著 2021 年冬季的到來，歐洲天然氣的遠期曲線出現顯著的公升水。明年夏天的價格比今天高得多，並且在進入下一個冬天時會繼續處於升水狀態。我們認為，遠期曲線合理地反映了該市場的基本面。歐洲天然氣擁有更活躍的新奇賣家和對沖該市場的買家。因此，你會得到一個不同的市場結構，允許期貨溢價，而石油市場上不存在這種情況，實際上，對沖者主要是賣方。這是一個市場結構特徵，可能限制了石油的長期價格。

So what this means is that as we hedge for the out years, we can do that still at quite strong prices for European gas, prices that do ensure a lot of free cash flow and strong project economics. We're in a very strong hedge position for this year on European gas. It's outlined in our IR deck on the website, these hedge percentages for European gas, and it's a whole variety of 2-way, 3-way contracts with some swaps, total about 78% of our expected production for 2020 and about 50% of our production for 2021. The hedge position continues on into 2022 and 2023. With the curve that exists, we are willing to further hedge into that curve, and I think you will see us doing that.

因此，這意味著，當我們對未來幾年進行對沖時，我們仍然可以在歐洲天然氣價格相當強勁的情況下做到這一點，這些價格確實確保了大量的自由現金流和強勁的項目經濟效益。今年我們對歐洲天然氣的對沖部位非常強勁。我們網站上的投資者關係報告中概述了歐洲天然氣的對沖百分比，這是各種帶有一些掉期的2 向、3 向合同，總計約占我們2020 年預期產量的78%，約佔2020 年預期產量的50%。我們 2021 年的產量。對沖頭寸將持續到 2022 年和 2023 年。根據現有的曲線，我們願意進一步對沖該曲線，我想你會看到我們這樣做。

The European gas forward curve is a hedging advantage that we have that's not available to most of the other independent E&Ps and it is something that we take advantage of to lock down a portion of the cash flows for the -- not only for the current year, but for the later year period. I do want to turn it to Adam for a minute just to discuss the fundamentals and our view of the market.

歐洲天然氣遠期曲線是我們擁有的對沖優勢，這是大多數其他獨立勘探與生產公司所不具備的，我們利用它來鎖定部分現金流，而不僅僅是今年的現金流，但適用於下半年。我確實想請亞當花一分鐘時間來討論基本面和我們對市場的看法。

Sure. The current price weakness in Europe is really the confluence of a few factors. We've had 2 consecutively warm winters in Europe and warm winter in all of the Northern Hemisphere. And then LNG supply growth globally has outpaced LNG demand growth, namely in the Asian markets. And so LNG has been seeking a home, that home is Europe. This is not stable or a situation that can continue into the future. If you look at LNG economics out of the U.S. Gulf Coast, the arbitrage is right at the variable cost right now. And so to get more LNG to these markets, prices just have to go up. And this is where we see improving price conditions going out into '21, into '22 and further '23. But as Tony said, we have a 50% hedge level for 2021; 2022, we're about 25%. The curve still does allow us to lock in very good economics for our gas production. And so we will continue to hedge.

當然。歐洲目前的價格疲軟實際上是多種因素共同作用的結果。歐洲連續經歷了兩個暖冬，整個北半球也經歷了暖冬。全球液化天然氣供應成長超過了液化天然氣需求成長，即亞洲市場。因此液化天然氣一直在尋找一個家，這個家就是歐洲。這種情況並不穩定，也不會持續到未來。如果你看看美國墨西哥灣沿岸的液化天然氣經濟，你會發現目前的套利是基於變動成本的。因此，為了向這些市場提供更多液化天然氣，價格就必須上漲。這就是我們看到 21 年、22 年以及 23 年價格狀況改善的地方。但正如托尼所說，我們2021年的對沖水準是50%；到 2022 年，我們的比例約為 25%。該曲線仍然使我們能夠鎖定天然氣生產的良好經濟效益。因此我們將繼續對沖。

Your next question comes from Asit Sen of Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Asit Sen。

Tony, on the capital flexibility, just wanted to make sure I got the 2 numbers right. Your sustaining CapEx, you mentioned $410 million. And then you mentioned you could potentially trim up to 15% if commodity prices weaken. Did I get those numbers right? So essentially getting back to sustaining CapEx would be what you're thinking about?

東尼，關於資本彈性，只是想確保我得到的兩個數字是正確的。您提到了您的持續資本支出 4.1 億美元。然後您提到，如果大宗商品價格走軟，您可能會削減 15%。我得到的數字對嗎？那麼您正在考慮的基本上是恢復維持資本支出？

We haven't made a decision on reducing capital. We're going to look at the development of the markets and coronavirus and overall economic situation while we complete the Q1 program. But your understanding of it is correct. I'll -- maybe just to elaborate a little bit on the terminology, we estimate our stay-flat CapEx cutting the growth CapEx and some longer-term expenditures at about $410 million. We haven't made any decisions on a reduction in the capital program, but I think if we are to do that, we would think in terms of reductions in the 5% to 10% to 15% range for the annual capital program. It is possible to bring down capital further than that.

我們還沒有做出減少資本的決定。在完成第一季計畫的同時，我們將關注市場的發展、冠狀病毒以及整體經濟狀況。但你的理解是正確的。我會 - 也許只是為了詳細說明術語，我們估計我們的固定資本支出將削減成長資本支出和一些長期支出，約 4.1 億美元。我們尚未就削減資本計劃做出任何決定，但我認為如果我們要這樣做，我們會考慮將年度資本計劃削減 5% 至 10% 至 15%。進一步減少資本是有可能的。

We'll have a little bit over half of our capital employed in Q1 with this strategy of front-loading. We did that in part to get some cost advantages on a bigger program. We did it because it's more efficient in terms of timing to generate more production for the year. And we did it to reduce risk in the capital program, risk that confronted us before like weather delays due to kind of a shifting wet season in North America in general and Alberta in particular. So we have capability to go deeper if we needed to than 15%. But the scenarios that we're modeling would put us between this roughly 5% to 15% level at this point.

透過這種提前加載的策略，我們將在第一季使用略多於一半的資本。我們這樣做的部分原因是為了在更大的專案上獲得一些成本優勢。我們這樣做是因為這樣可以更有效地安排當年的產量。我們這樣做是為了降低資本計劃的風險，這些風險是我們之前面臨的風險，例如由於北美（尤其是艾伯塔省）雨季變化而導致的天氣延誤。因此，如果我們需要超過 15%，我們就有能力進一步深入。但此時我們正在建模的場景會將我們置於大約 5% 到 15% 的水平之間。

Great. Tony, that's very helpful. And again, a more difficult question. But when you're thinking through trimming CapEx, I know it's not easy to do, but could you kind of speak to potential areas you could revisit first to trim the drilling program?

偉大的。托尼，這很有幫助。又是一個更困難的問題。但是，當您考慮削減資本支出時，我知道這並不容易做到，但您能否談談您可以首先重新考慮以削減鑽探計劃的潛在領域？

Yes, we'd be looking at some of the later year drilling that is a -- that wasn't initiated in Q1. A portion of this would be in North America. And there are some European projects that could be delayed as well. And we'll look for other general efficiencies in the program. I mean I feel we do have quite an efficient capital budget as it stands. Nonetheless, it's been our history for -- ever since the oil price crash and even before that to grind costs out of our system, and capital has been a key part of that. We're not going to stop trying to find just those cost efficiencies today. So it'd be a combination, but those would be the main drilling areas, I would say, that would be candidates.

是的，我們會關注下半年的一些鑽探活動，這些鑽探活動不是在第一季啟動的。其中一部分將在北美。還有一些歐洲項目也可能被推遲。我們將尋找該計劃的其他整體效率。我的意思是，我覺得我們目前的資本預算確實相當有效。儘管如此，自從油價暴跌以來，甚至在此之前，我們的歷史就是將成本從我們的系統中剔除，而資本一直是其中的關鍵部分。今天我們不會停止努力尋找這些成本效益。所以這將是一個組合，但我想說，這些將是主要的鑽探區域，這將是候選區域。

Your next question comes from Josef Schachter of Schachter Energy Research.

您的下一個問題來自沙赫特能源研究中心的約瑟夫·沙赫特。

I have a few questions. You mentioned that your front-end load is about $200 million with that $450 million in the first quarter. You drilled 176 wells last year gross. How many do you see drilling in 2020 if you go with the $450 million budget?

我有幾個問題。您提到您的前端負載約為 2 億美元，其中第一季的 4.5 億美元。去年您總共鑽探了 176 口井。如果按照 4.5 億美元的預算，2020 年您預計會有多少鑽探活動？

Yes, Josef, thank you for the question. We'd be a little bit over 50% employment of the annual CapEx in Q1. So it would be more than the $200 million. I think our total is 55% that we're projecting for Q1. I can only give it to you in terms of net wells, but we project 116 net for 2020 currently.

是的，約瑟夫，謝謝你的提問。第一季年度資本支出的就業率將略高於 50%。所以這將超過2億美元。我認為我們的總數是我們預計第一季的 55%。我只能給你淨井數，但我們目前預計 2020 年淨井數為 116 口。

So the gross, that might be -- given comparison to the last year, bumping it up by about 10% gets the difference between gross and net over the last year or so?

那麼，與去年相比，毛額可能會增加約 10%，從而得出去年左右毛額和淨額之間的差異？

Josef, that sounds accurate, and I guess, that would put us in the range of 130 gross. It seems like a reasonable estimate. I apologize, just don't have that one at my fingertips.

Josef，這聽起來很準確，我想，這將使我們處於 130 毛的範圍內。這似乎是一個合理的估計。我很抱歉，只是我手邊沒有那個。

No problem. Now going to the spend of the money that you have for the rest of the year. Last year, you were able to spend in -- for the year $38.5 million on acquisitions and $9.2 million in the fourth quarter. In terms of drilling versus buying, given the problems out there in the industry with a lot of distressed assets, are you finding that the -- in terms of the areas that you operate in Canada or Germany where the chances of being able to be a buyer versus direct spend might be advantageous? Are you looking at things in that ilk?

沒問題。現在來看看今年剩下的時間裡你的錢的花銷情況。去年，您全年的收購支出為 3,850 萬美元，第四季的收購支出為 920 萬美元。就鑽探與購買而言，考慮到該行業存在大量不良資產的問題，您是否發現，就您在加拿大或德國經營的地區而言，有機會成為買家與直接支出相比可能更有優勢？你正在以同樣的方式看待事物嗎？

Yes. With respect to acquisitions, we discussed in a few different forums that we're actually pretty unlikely to be an acquirer in Canada, and I think that would apply to North America as a whole. We feel like we've been through the property set that would be reasonably available within our operating core areas. We don't see the particular asset set of any meaningful size that would likely to be available that we think would be kind of a quality addition to our portfolio, and we're quite deep in our inventory already. In general, a slightly different set of reasons, perhaps the same thing applies in Wyoming. We don't think there's anything really dealable at a reasonable price adjacent to our core operating area. And we like our position geologically exactly where it's at within the basin there, also with quite large and probably expanding inventories, we work the asset more.

是的。關於收購，我們在幾個不同的論壇上討論過，我們實際上不太可能成為加拿大的收購方，我認為這適用於整個北美。我們覺得我們已經瀏覽了在我們的營運核心區域內可以合理使用的資產集。我們沒有看到任何有意義規模的特定資產組可能會成為我們投資組合的優質補充，而且我們的庫存已經相當深了。總的來說，一組略有不同的原因，也許同樣的事情也適用於懷俄明州。我們認為在我們的核心營運區域附近沒有任何真正可以以合理價格交易的東西。我們喜歡我們在地質上的位置，它位於盆地內，而且庫存相當大，而且可能會不斷擴大，我們對資產的利用更多。

So no, I don't think it's very likely. I mean in general, probably even quite low cost and real high rate of return M&A, we would, I'd say, from this point forward, there's always a collection of very, very small land additions that could potentially be made. But I would say that even at the very low cost and high rate of return M&A, we would probably -- if we did it, we'd probably seek to fund it out of the E&D budget, just keeping a really strict focus on how much total CapEx we would be using.

所以不，我認為不太可能。我的意思是，一般來說，即使是成本相當低、回報率很高的併購，我想說，從現在開始，總會有一系列非常非常小的土地增量可能會增加。但我想說，即使併購成本非常低、回報率很高，我們也可能——如果我們這樣做了，我們可能會尋求從研發預算中為其提供資金，只是嚴格關注如何進行併購我們將使用的總資本支出。

One more from me. If we had recovery in commodity prices, let's say, Q4, we're back over $60, you'll probably generate $200 million for the quarter. So the dividend is $53 million. You might have $50 million for CapEx left in your budget. Would the extra funds go only to paying down debt? Or if you saw comfort in the $60 environment post the virus resolving, would you also activate the NCIB? Or is that a 2021 prospect?

我再發一份。如果我們的大宗商品價格有所回升，比如說第四季度，我們的價格會回到 60 美元以上，那麼該季度您可能會創收 2 億美元。因此股息為 5300 萬美元。您的預算中可能還剩下 5000 萬美元的資本支出。額外的資金只會用於償還債務嗎？或者，如果您在病毒解決後看到 60 美元的環境感到舒適，您還會啟動 NCIB 嗎？或者說這是 2021 年的前景嗎？

Yes, with the set of numbers that you've laid out, $50 million of excess free cash, meaning cash beyond dividends, I'm not -- we'd have to check and see what price scenario that would be ended up -- that would end up being tied to. But I think that the direction of that magnitude of excess free cash would be debt reduction. At this point, it's our intent, given the uncertainty that's developed in the economy over the past month, to take that excess cash really and just use it to retire debt. In different macro environments, we have the option to employ the NCIB. We're not going to do that at this time because of the focus that we have on the balance sheet and really the great degree of economic uncertainty that the virus has created. So yes, for the time being, it's all earmarked to debt reduction. It would -- the lowest priority use of additional cash flow on the totem pole would be for capital increases. I don't think we're going to do that.

是的，根據你列出的一組數字，5000萬美元的超額自由現金，這意味著股息之外的現金，我不是——我們必須檢查並看看最終的價格情況——那最終會被束縛。但我認為大量過剩自由現金的方向將是減少債務。在這一點上，考慮到過去一個月經濟中出現的不確定性，我們的目的是真正拿走多餘的現金，並用它來償還債務。在不同的宏觀環境下，我們可以選擇採用NCIB。我們目前不打算這樣做，因為我們的重點是資產負債表，而病毒確實造成了很大程度的經濟不確定性。所以，是的，目前，這一切都專門用於削減債務。圖騰柱上額外現金流的最低優先用途將是增加資本。我認為我們不會那樣做。

Your next question comes from Jeremy McCrea of Raymond James.

您的下一個問題來自雷蒙德詹姆斯的傑里米麥克雷。

Just given the volatility and all the discussions and the questions here so far and where you want your leverage ratios to be, I just want to kind of get some more insight into the Board discussion on why the dividend wasn't a bigger cut. Why you wouldn't take the opportunity to do more -- pay down more debt, maybe even cut the CapEx just to get ahead of this volatility that we all kind of see is coming here?

考慮到波動性以及迄今為止的所有討論和問題，以及您希望槓桿率達到多少，我只是想更深入地了解董事會關於為何不大幅削減股息的討論。為什麼你不抓住這個機會做更多的事——償還更多的債務，甚至削減資本支出，以應對我們都看到的這種波動？

Okay. Well, yes, Jeremy, on the question of -- take the first one on the question of why not an earlier reduction in the dividend, maybe I could use the slides that we have in the deck to run through maybe a longer-term view of this first and then a shorter-term view second. So I'll start with Slide 5, the kind of total uses chart that we have. This incorporates dividends split historically into DRIP and cash and CapEx, but it also includes our expenses for ARO retirement. So it's the full uses of cash for those 3 purposes. If you look at the first half of the decade, the payout ratios were in excess of 100%. The sea change -- the first sea change, I would say, in the industry occurred in 2014 with the reduction in commodity prices. We reacted and it took a bit of time to pull down -- further pull down the cost structure of the company. And a lot of this work had been going on even prior to the oil price crash, and the work was to move up the learning curve in the programs that we had to reduce cost and improve the productivity of the completions. It was a big changeover in the project slate. Certainly, post mid-'14, and especially once we got into 2015, we were assisted by oil service cost reductions, which have persisted throughout this period. Through doing all those things and trying to enhance as well the cash flow profile of the company, over the second half of the decade, we were able to get the payout ratio down very close to 100%. We didn't quite get there in '19, we were at 103%. We were determined to bring it down further.

好的。嗯，是的，傑里米，關於這個問題——首先是關於為什麼不早點減少股息的問題，也許我可以使用我們在甲板上的幻燈片來了解也許是長期的觀點首先是這一點，然後是短期觀點。我將從投影片 5 開始，這是我們擁有的總使用量圖表。這包括歷史上分為 DRIP 和現金以及資本支出的股息，但它也包括我們的 ARO 退休費用。因此，這就是將現金充分用於這三個目的。如果你看看這十年的前五年，派息率超過了 100%。巨變－我想說，隨著大宗商品價格的下降，該產業的第一次巨變發生在 2014 年。我們做出了反應，花了一些時間才進一步降低公司的成本結構。許多這樣的工作甚至在油價暴跌之前就已經在進行了，這些工作是為了提高我們必須降低成本並提高完井生產率的專案的學習曲線。這是項目清單中的一個重大轉變。當然，在 14 年中期之後，尤其是在進入 2015 年後，我們得到了石油服務成本降低的幫助，這種成本在整個時期都持續存在。透過做所有這些事情並努力改善公司的現金流狀況，在這十年的後半段，我們能夠將派息率降低到接近 100%。19 年我們並沒有完全達到這個目標，當時我們的成功率為 103%。我們決心進一步降低它。

And as we're going to get to in a second, we'll show you the projections that we had for 2020. But to create white space on that plot versus our uses and use it to, first and foremost, bring down debt levels. So the company made a tremendous shift to the overall change in the sector, getting those ratios down just about to 100%, not quite. And another thing that we had to execute during this period, really just another change in the market and something we thought was justified as the stock price got lower toward the end of this period was the elimination of the DRIP, wanting to make sure that we got to a pay-as-you-go basis or better with the -- for the total uses for dividends and CapEx. So we had believed that we were well on the path to doing this and had a dividend that was sustainable in the kind of macro environment that we thought would occur.

正如我們稍後將要介紹的，我們將向您展示我們對 2020 年的預測。但要在該地塊上與我們的用途相對應地創造空白，並首先利用它來降低債務水平。因此，該公司對該行業的整體變革做出了巨大轉變，將這些比率降低到了 100%，但並非完全如此。在此期間我們必須執行的另一件事，實際上只是市場的另一項變化，我們認為隨著股價在這一時期末下降而合理的事情是消除 DRIP，希望確保我們股息和資本支出的總使用量採用現收現付或更好的方式。因此，我們相信我們在實現這一目標的道路上進展順利，並且在我們認為會出現的宏觀環境中獲得了可持續的股息。

This is where I want to shift to the next slide to look at the shorter-term thought process that we had, and this is shown on Slide 6. So at the time we released that budget, we were about balanced at the commodity prices that existed. We -- I would say, we generally had a moderately constructed view of oil prices. There's a whole range of positives and negatives that we try to take into account that may occur -- that might have occurred in the oil market. They generally tended towards the positive side, and we did develop FFO that was over the line that we had at the time of the budget with the prior dividend. We had a forecast that we put out when we came back at the beginning of the new year in 2020, represented in the middle of the chart for January 6. We have that white space developing, and we continue to think that, that was a reasonable oil price and would have the potential as well over time to improve.

這就是我想轉到下一張幻燈片來看看我們的短期思維過程的地方，這在幻燈片 6 中顯示。因此，在我們發布預算時，我們對大宗商品價格基本上保持平衡，存在。我想說，我們對油價的看法總體上是溫和的。我們試圖考慮可能發生的一系列正面和負面因素——這可能發生在石油市場上。他們通常傾向於積極的一面，我們確實開發了 FFO，這超出了我們在預算時與先前股息的界限。我們在 2020 年新年伊始回來時發布了一個預測，該預測顯示在 1 月 6 日圖表的中間。我們有那個空白區域正在發展，我們仍然認為，這是一個合理的油價，並且隨著時間的推移也有可能改善。

And what we had said throughout this period and really going back a number of years was that we would continue to pay the dividend as long as we assessed it to be economically sustainable. We said if there was a structural change in commodity conditions that we didn't feel we could compensate for with higher level of cost reduction in the company, such that we could not self-fund the capital program and dividends, that's when we would make a reduction to it. As coronavirus began to have its impact in the economy and especially in the oil market, we actually watched it very, very closely from a technical standpoint in January when we first heard about it and into a full month of February. We're not virologists and we're not epidemiologists, but we made an assessment that the virus was at higher lethality than the flu, but not as contagious -- less lethal than SARS, but more contagious. And we certainly initially did not think that we would have quite the behavioral change that has occurred at so many different levels in society over the world. It's now awfully clear to us -- and this really has hit home in the last 1.5 weeks. You can see it in the trading action in the commodities, you can see it in the trading action in equities in general. You can see it in equities in the sector. And you can see it in our stock that the -- it's a much more severe reaction than we would have expected in January or the beginning part of February.

我們在這段期間以及幾年前所說的是，只要我們評估股息在經濟上是可持續的，我們就會繼續支付股息。我們說，如果商品狀況發生結構性變化，我們認為我們無法透過公司更高水準的成本削減來彌補，以至於我們無法為資本計劃和股息自籌資金，那麼我們就會做出對其進行減少。隨著冠狀病毒開始對經濟，特別是石油市場產生影響，我們實際上從技術角度非常非常密切地關注它，從一月份我們第一次聽說它到整個二月份。我們不是病毒學家，也不是流行病學家，但我們做出了評估，認為病毒的致死率比流感高，但傳染性卻不如SARS——致死率低於SARS，但傳染性更強。我們最初當然沒有想到我們會在世界各地社會的許多不同層面上發生如此大的行為變化。現在我們已經非常清楚了——這一點在過去 1.5 週內確實得到了體現。您可以在商品的交易行為中看到它，也可以在一般股票的交易行為中看到它。你可以在該行業的股票中看到這一點。你可以從我們的股票中看到——這是一個比我們在一月份或二月初預期的要嚴重得多的反應。

So we think that there is a huge amount of uncertainty associated with this virus. And it's not only on a kind of a scientific basis about what its health impacts will be, but an enormous amount of economic uncertainty that it introduces. And as a result, we have made the move to cut the dividend in half. And from here, we're going -- yes. Just one more sentence on. Jeremy, just one more sentence on this. So we're going to watch the prices from here, and we're prepared to react further, that's why the discussion that we had earlier about the potential for capital reductions.

因此我們認為這種病毒存在很大的不確定性。它不僅有科學依據來說明其對健康的影響，而且還帶來了巨大的經濟不確定性。因此，我們採取了將股利削減一半的措施。從這裡開始，我們要去──是的。就再多說一句吧。傑里米，對此再多說一句。因此，我們將從這裡觀察價格，並準備進一步做出反應，這就是我們之前討論資本削減潛力的原因。

Okay. I guess I was just -- why wouldn't you have cut it, say, 70% or that now as opposed to -- like just given how quickly your leverage ratios have gone up to -- I think you said 2.9x at the current strip, like, versus your target. So the payout is back down to 100%, great, but the leverage ratios seem like they've gone up almost too much here where you almost have to put the payout closer to, say, 85% or 90% just to pay down the -- get the balance sheet a little bit fixed sooner, I guess?

好的。我想我只是 - 為什麼你不把它削減，比如說 70% 或現在，而不是 - 就像你的槓桿率上升得有多快 - 我想你在會議上說過 2.9 倍當前條帶，例如，與您的目標。因此，支付率又回到了 100%，這很​​好，但槓桿率似乎已經上升太多了，你幾乎必須將支付率設置為接近 85% 或 90%，才能償還債務。 ——我猜，盡快修復資產負債表吧？

Yes. I'm going to start with that, and then I'm going to turn it to Lars to discuss the composition of our balance sheet. But the pricing change has been very, very rapid. It changes a lot every day. And we can't say with any certainty if today's price is appropriate, if Wednesday's price was appropriate, if the price we had a week ago was appropriate. The market is very sensitive, and we're going to take the time to see what a little more extended oil market reaction is rather than -- we could -- rather than pegging it on any single day's price. We can evaluate it at the strip on any day, but we're not necessarily going to change the dividend based on what it is on a single day. So with that, I want to turn it to Lars to discuss the quality of the balance sheet.

是的。我將從這個開始，然後我將把它交給拉爾斯討論我們資產負債表的組成。但價格變化非常非常快。每天都有很大的變化。我們不能肯定地說今天的價格是否合適，週三的價格是否合適，一週前的價格是否合適。市場非常敏感，我們將花時間看看石油市場的進一步反應是什麼，而不是——我們可以——而不是將其與任何一天的價格掛鉤。我們可以在任何一天對它進行評估，但我們不一定會根據單日的情況來改變股息。因此，我想請拉爾斯討論資產負債表的品質。

Yes. Thanks, Tony. And Jeremy, we've discussed this in the past. And I think it's important to look at the construct of the balance sheet. So first off, we do have the U.S. senior notes that are termed out to 2025. What we just announced today as well was a 1-year extension of the $2.1 billion covenant-based credit facility to May 31, 2024. Something that we look at as well in markets like these is that debt-to-FFO. We also look at the credit metrics. So we have 3 financial covenants on that credit facility in terms of senior debt not to exceed 3.5x. We're 1.57 at year-end '19. And then on total debt not to exceed 4x, 1.94. I would call those 2 the most stringent of the covenants that we have to meet year-end 2020. To put that 2.9x into perspective, that would translate into about 1 -- just under 1.9x on that senior debt versus 3.5x and then about 2.3x on the total debt relative to the 4x. So we are looking at things on a debt-to-FFO as well as debt-to-EBITDA perspective.

是的。謝謝，托尼。傑里米，我們過去討論過這個問題。我認為了解資產負債表的結構很重要。首先，我們確實有期限到 2025 年的美國優先票據。我們今天剛剛宣布的是將 21 億美元的基於契約的信貸安排延長一年至 2024 年 5 月 31 日。在此類市場中，我們也關注 FFO 債務。我們也關注信用指標。因此，我們對此信貸安排有 3 項財務契約，優先債務不超過 3.5 倍。19 年底我們的比率是 1.57。然後總債務不超過 4 倍，即 1.94。我認為這兩項是我們在 2020 年底必須滿足的最嚴格的契約。從這個角度來看，2.9 倍相當於優先債務的 1 倍，略低於 1.9 倍，而 3.5 倍，總債務的 4 倍約為 2.3 倍。因此，我們從債務與 FFO 以及債務與 EBITDA 的角度來看問題。

I think the other important part of it is liquidity that we were able to maintain. You are correct in terms of not a lot of incremental cash flow to pay down debt at March 4 strip pricing, but at the same time, not a lot of absolute debt being added to the balance sheet as well. So those ratio is going up to that 2.9x is really a -- fundamentally caused by the underlying cash flows depreciating. But importantly, we are targeting that 100%, which results in very little to no absolute debt being added.

我認為另一個重要部分是我們能夠維持的流動性。你是正確的，在 3 月 4 日的剝離定價中，沒有大量增量現金流來償還債務，但與此同時，資產負債表中也沒有添加大量絕對債務。因此，這些比率上升到 2.9 倍實際上是由基礎現金流貶值造成的。但重要的是，我們的目標是 100%，這導致絕對債務的增加很少甚至沒有。

Your next question comes from Greg Pardy of RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的格雷格·帕迪。

I mean, Tony, just to be clear, smart in terms of addressing the dividend. I think you've kind of answered it in terms of evaluating the capital program and dividend in the context of oil market conditions. It's kind of full stop there. But just wanted to ask 2 quick ones. One is, just operationally, you alluded to a pretty big premium, I think, you're getting on your Australian barrels right now. Just curious how that's looking in the context of IMO 2020. And then I just had a follow-up question on cash taxes.

我的意思是，托尼，在解決股息方面要清楚、明智。我認為您已經在石油市場條件下評估資本計劃和股息方面回答了這個問題。到這裡就結束了。但只是想問兩個快速的問題。一是，就操作而言，您提到了相當大的溢價，我認為，您現在正在購買澳洲桶。只是好奇在 IMO 2020 的背景下會是什麼樣子。然後我有一個關於現金稅的後續問題。

Yes, I'll turn the one to -- question to Adam Iwanicki. Thanks, Greg.

是的，我將向 Adam Iwanicki 提出問題。謝謝，格雷格。

So we did participate in very strong IMO-related low-sulfur fuel oil pricing, and that's basically what our Wandoo crude is pricing off of, most of the fuel oil in Singapore, very strong over the first quarter. The majority of this production is tied to a 1-year sales contract to some Japanese refinery buyers. And so we can't actually disclose all the details -- the economic details of that commercial arrangement, but they are protected at a higher price level.

因此，我們確實參與了與 IMO 相關的非常強勁的低硫燃料油定價，基本上就是我們的 Wandoo 原油的定價依據，新加坡的大部分燃料油在第一季都非常強勁。大部分產量與一些日本煉油廠買家的一年銷售合約有關。因此，我們實際上無法披露所有細節——商業安排的經濟細節，但它們受到更高價格水準的保護。

Okay. So a significant premium to Brent continues to [delay]?

好的。那麼布蘭特原油的大幅溢價會繼續[延遲]嗎？

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

Okay. Okay, great. And then just the other thing is, I mean, the cash taxes were, I guess, a lot lower than we were expecting in the fourth quarter. Can we still use just that rule of thumb of 6% to 8% of pretaxes as a reasonable proxy for cash taxes for modeling purposes this year?

好的。好的，太好了。另一件事是，我想，現金稅比我們第四季的預期低很多。今年我們是否仍可以僅使用稅前 6% 至 8% 的經驗法則作為現金稅的合理替代指標來建模？

Yes, thanks for the question, Lars here. I think that's a fair range to use. I think that as the commodity price environment depreciates, I would be comfortable sort of referencing a range of 5% to 6%. I think that 6% to 8% is when you get into a 50-plus environment. So in the world that we are in right now for 2020, 5% to 6% is the right way to think about it on an overall corporate basis.

是的，謝謝你的提問，拉爾斯。我認為這是一個合理的使用範圍。我認為，隨著大宗商品價格環境的貶值，我會放心參考 5% 至 6% 的範圍。我認為6%到8%是當你進入50人以上的環境。因此，就我們目前所處的 2020 年情況而言，5% 到 6% 是從整個公司的角度來思考這個問題的正確方法。

Your next question comes from Mike Dunn of Stifel FirstEnergy.

您的下一個問題來自 Stifel FirstEnergy 的 Mike Dunn。

My questions have been answered. That's all from me.

我的問題已經得到解答。這就是我的全部。

Your next question comes from Chris Varcoe of the Calgary Herald.

您的下一個問題來自《卡加利先驅報》的克里斯·瓦爾科。

Several of my questions have been answered, but I'm just wanting to be clear. What will be the trigger for you to make a decision if you decide to cut capital spending sometime later in the year?

我的幾個問題已經得到解答，但我只是想澄清一下。如果您決定在今年稍後削減資本支出，什麼會觸發您做出決定？

Okay. Yes, we're going to watch this commodity price after the extremely high volatility we've had over the past couple of weeks. And I think that we'll be monitoring it through the end of Q1 as we complete that part of the capital program. And I think, with each of the upcoming quarters, we'll be making a decision about whether or not we stick with the entire remainder of the program.

好的。是的，在過去幾週經歷了極高的波動之後，我們將關注該商品價格。我認為，隨著我們完成資本計劃的這一部分，我們將在第一季末對其進行監控。我認為，在接下來的每個季度，我們都將決定是否堅持該計劃的整個剩餘部分。

And just as we're sitting here, looking at oil at $42, and obviously, you talked about the instability, do you view this situation similar to the price downturn of 2015, 2016? Or do you view this in a different light, which requires a different kind of response?

正如我們坐在這裡，看著 42 美元的油價，顯然，您談到了不穩定，您是否認為這種情況類似於 2015 年、2016 年的價格低迷？或者您是否以不同的角度看待這件事，需要不同的回應？

Yes, that's a very thoughtful question. Sometimes you can only view these things in retrospect. I think they are, though, very, very different events. The one that began in mid-'14, with hindsight, it's clear what led to it. You had a big technological change. You had an enormous amount of that capital that was available to the industry to be employed in this new technology of horizontal wells in ultra-tight reservoirs using multi-stage fracs. And it was impossible for OPEC -- I mean, Saudi Arabia in particular, to continue to accommodate that increase in U.S. production by restricting their own output. And that big supply event even in -- even as we were having increasing demand all the time led to a very long-term change in prices. Nobody knows for sure. We try to understand all the fundamentals that we can, but it's going to be impossible for us to be exactly right about it.

是的，這是一個非常深思熟慮的問題。有時你只能回顧這些事情。不過，我認為它們是非常非常不同的事件。事後看來，從 14 年中期開始的那件事，很明顯是什麼導致了它。你們經歷了重大的技術變革。你們擁有大量資金可供該行業用於使用多級壓裂的超緻密油藏水平井新技術。歐佩克——我的意思是，特別是沙烏地阿拉伯——不可能繼續透過限制自己的產量來適應美國產量的增加。即使我們的需求一直在增加，大規模的供應事件也導致了價格的長期變化。沒有人確切知道。我們試著盡可能地理解所有的基本原理，但我們不可能完全正確。

But we did feel that the oil market was coming back into balance, and that's after we had kind of a failed rally that began early in '16 and ended in the fourth quarter of '18. There was another smaller failed rally in 2019. We were in the midst, I felt, of a little bit more sustainable rally at the end of '19 and the early part of 2020, really largely restoring balance in the market with just a little bit of kind of probability of continued assistance from OPEC while demand was continuing to grow. And that was even after you had the negative impacts from the trade war. So what we've observed in 2020 is, in a sense, it's even more uncertain, because it's such a rapid adjustment to demand, probably impossible, and this is what the commodity markets are indicating, probably impossible for OPEC to take enough supply or supply out fast enough to get to the point of having even inventories, so we're definitely having an inventory build. And that's negative for the market, especially for the front end of the market.

但我們確實感覺到石油市場正在恢復平衡，那是在我們經歷了從 16 年初開始到 18 年第四季結束的失敗反彈之後。2019 年還有另一次較小規模的失敗反彈。我覺得，我們正處於 19 年底和 2020 年初更加可持續的反彈之中，市場確​​實在很大程度上恢復了平衡，而且歐佩克有可能繼續提供援助同時需求持續增長。即使在受到貿易戰的負面影響之後也是如此。因此，我們在2020 年觀察到的情況，從某種意義上說，更加不確定，因為需求調整如此之快，可能是不可能的，而這就是大宗商品市場所表明的，歐佩克可能不可能獲得足夠的供應或供貨速度足夠快，可以達到庫存均勻的程度，所以我們肯定會建立庫存。這對市場來說是不利的，尤其是對前端市場來說。

It's hard to say what the duration of it will be. I would -- my own guess would put it kind of in the medium term. I think of it as setting back the oil price position, to me, at least a year, maybe it's 2 years, hopefully not more than that, from the improving position that we were previously in. I don't think it is probably going to make a permanent change in the likely price. I mean it may actually restrict supply development further as less capital is provided to the industry, given the volatility of the product price and the impact that it will have on the whole industry's cash flows. I don't know if it'll have a longer-term impact on demand. I think if you get at least a few years out, it will be on the previous growth trend. So it's just a very different event. It's very uncertain about its overall economic impact. There are macro risks that exist that could be -- that could come to the fore that were kind of latent in the world economy. That creates a greater risk. We don't even know technically or in health terms what the real progress or significance of the disease is going to be. So I think it's quite uncertain, and it's really about how long it pushes back that return to what would otherwise have been the fundamentals. So in this sense, it's just different in several ways from the one that we had in -- that began in mid-'14.

很難說它會持續多久。我會——我自己的猜測是在中期。我認為，對我來說，這會讓油價地位從我們先前的改善地位開始回落至少一年，也許兩年，希望不會超過這個時間。我認為這可能不會永久改變可能的價格。我的意思是，考慮到產品價格的波動及其對整個行業現金流的影響，由於向行業提供的資本減少，這實際上可能會進一步限制供應發展。我不知道這是否會對需求產生長期影響。我認為如果至少再過幾年，就會維持以前的成長趨勢。所以這只是一個非常不同的事件。其整體經濟影響非常不確定。世界經濟中潛在的宏觀風險可能會凸顯出來。這會帶來更大的風險。我們甚至不知道技術上或健康上這種疾病的真正進展或意義是什麼。所以我認為這是相當不確定的，而且這實際上是關於它將回歸到基本面的時間推遲多久。所以從這個意義上說，它在幾個方面與我們 14 年中期開始的那個不同。

There are no further questions at this time. I will turn the call back over to Anthony for any -- for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。我會將電話轉回給安東尼，讓他作結束語。

Okay. So thank you for participating in our Q4 2019 conference call. As has been our previous practice, our Q1 2020 call will be preempted by our AGM presentation on April 28. Thanks again.

好的。感謝您參加我們的 2019 年第四季電話會議。按照我們先前的慣例，我們的 2020 年第一季電話會議將先於 4 月 28 日舉行的年度股東大會演示。再次感謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。