Visteon Corp (VC) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Kris Doyle - Vice President of Investor Relations and FP&A

    Kris Doyle - Vice President of Investor Relations and FP&A

  • Good morning. I'm Kris Doyle, Vice President of Investor Relations and FP&A. Welcome to our earnings call for the third quarter of 2025. Before we begin this morning's call, I'd like to remind you that today's presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to various risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed.

    早安.我是投資者關係和 FP&A 副總裁 Kris Doyle。歡迎參加我們 2025 年第三季的財報電話會議。在我們開始今天早上的電話會議之前,我想提醒大家,今天的演示包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明並非對未來績效的保證,並且受各種風險、不確定性和假設的影響,可能導致實際結果與所表達的結果有重大差異。

  • Please refer to the page titled forward-looking information in our earnings material for more detail. Presentation materials for today's call were posted this morning on the Investors section of Visteon's website. You can download them at investors.visteon.com if you haven't already done so.

    請參閱我們的收益資料中標題為前瞻性資訊的頁面以了解更多詳細資訊。今天電話會議的簡報資料已於今天早上發佈在偉世通網站的投資者部分。如果您還沒有下載,可以從 investors.visteon.com 下載。

  • Joining us today are Sachin Lawande, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jerome Rouquet, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We scheduled the call for one hour, and we'll open the lines for questions after Sachin's and Jerome's prepared remarks. (Event Instructions) Thank you again for joining us.

    今天與我們一起出席的有總裁兼首席執行官 Sachin Lawande 和高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Jerome Rouquet。我們將通話時間安排為一小時,在 Sachin 和 Jerome 發表完準備好的發言後,我們將開放提問熱線。(活動說明)再次感謝您的參與。

  • Now I'll turn the call over to Sachin.

    現在我將把電話轉給 Sachin。

  • Sachin Lawande - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sachin Lawande - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Kris, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our third quarter 2025 earnings call. Visteon delivered another quarter of strong operating and financial performance, demonstrating the strength of our business while continuing to execute on our long-term strategy. Sales for the third quarter were $917 million, coming in slightly below our expectations, primarily due to the impact of the unplanned production shutdown at JLR. Excluding this impact, sales were broadly in line with our forecast.

    謝謝你,克里斯,大家早安。感謝您參加我們的 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。偉世通本季再次取得強勁的營運和財務業績,展現了我們業務的實力,同時繼續執行我們的長期策略。第三季的銷售額為 9.17 億美元,略低於我們的預期,主要原因是捷豹路虎意外停產的影響。排除此影響,銷售額基本上符合我們的預測。

  • We had good visibility into customer production schedules going into the quarter, and while there were some minor puts and takes across programs, they largely offset each other. Year over year, we continue to see strong momentum in our cockpit electronics business with solid growth in Europe and in the Americas. This was offset by lower sales in China and for BMS in the US due to the anticipated headwinds from the challenging macro environment for global OEMs in China and for electric vehicles in the US.

    我們對本季的客戶生產計劃有很好的了解,雖然各個項目之間存在一些小的變動,但它們基本上相互抵消。與去年同期相比,我們的駕駛艙電子業務繼續保持強勁勢頭,歐洲和美洲實現了穩健成長。由於預計中國全球原始設備製造商和美國電動車面臨的嚴峻宏觀環境將帶來不利影響,中國和美國 BMS 的銷售額將下降,抵消了這一增長。

  • Adjusted EBITDA was $119 million, representing a margin of 13%, and adjusted free cash flow for the quarter was $110 million. We are maintaining our full year guidance, which Jerome will walk you through in more detail shortly. On the sales side, we're trending below the midpoint of guidance as a result of several temporary industry headwinds. Importantly, despite these headwinds, our adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow are forecasted to remain strong, supported by continued operating discipline, commercial execution and the impact of our cost reduction initiatives.

    調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.19 億美元,利潤率為 13%,本季調整後的自由現金流為 1.1 億美元。我們將維持全年指導,傑羅姆很快就會向您詳細介紹。在銷售方面,由於產業面臨一些暫時的不利因素,我們的銷售趨勢低於預期的中點。重要的是,儘管存在這些不利因素,但在持續的經營紀律、商業執行和成本削減措施的影響的支持下,我們的調整後 EBITDA 和自由現金流預計將保持強勁。

  • From an operational viewpoint, the team delivered very well. We launched 28 new products, improved our profit margin through productivity measures and secured $1.8 billion in new business during the quarter. We continued to build momentum with our product portfolio, winning multiple large display programs and adding another high-performance SmartCore customer in China, strengthening our position in the emerging AI-based cockpit systems trend in the industry. We also resumed capital returns to shareholders with the payment of our newly initiated quarterly dividend with more capital returns planned in the fourth quarter.

    從營運角度來看,該團隊表現非常出色。我們推出了 28 款新產品,透過提高生產力的措施提高了利潤率,並在本季度獲得了 18 億美元的新業務。我們繼續透過產品組合增強發展勢頭,贏得了多個大型顯示項目,並在中國增加了另一個高性能 SmartCore 客戶,鞏固了我們在行業新興的基於人工智慧的駕駛艙系統趨勢中的地位。我們還透過支付新啟動的季度股息恢復了對股東的資本回報,並計劃在第四季度提供更多資本回報。

  • Turning to page 3. Our Q3 sales came largely in line with our expectations, excluding the temporary production shutdown at one customer in Europe. In North America, cockpit electronics continued to perform well and came in ahead of expectations. The impact of tariffs on customer demand remained minimal, and we benefited from the ramp-up of several recently launched programs with OEMs, including Ford.

    翻到第 3 頁。除歐洲一家客戶的臨時停產外,我們的第三季銷售額基本上符合預期。在北美,駕駛艙電子設備繼續表現良好,並超越預期。關稅對客戶需求的影響仍然很小,我們受益於最近與福特等原始設備製造商合作推出的幾個項目的推進。

  • BMS sales were down significantly year over year with GM and Stellantis, reflecting the very different environment for EVs in 2025 compared to 2024. Our retail EV demand surged ahead of the expiration of the $7,500 tax credit. Production levels remained steady as OEMs work through the elevated dealer inventory. Sequentially, BMS sales came in modestly higher. Overall, in the Americas, strength in cockpit electronics helped partially offset the year over year decline in BMS sales. In Europe, our sales were flat year-over-year.

    通用汽車和 Stellantis 的 BMS 銷量較去年同期大幅下降,反映出 2025 年與 2024 年電動車的環境截然不同。在 7,500 美元稅收抵免到期之前,我們的零售電動車需求激增。由於原始設備製造商 (OEM) 處理了經銷商增加的庫存,生產水準保持穩定。相比之下,BMS 銷售額略有成長。總體而言,在美洲,駕駛艙電子設備的強勁表現部分抵消了 BMS 銷售額年減的影響。在歐洲,我們的銷售額與去年同期持平。

  • We saw solid gains in cockpit electronics and ICE hybrid as well as battery electric vehicles across multiple customers, including Mercedes EQ and Renault R4 and R5 EVs, the Puma Transit and transporter vehicles from Ford and the Peugeot 208 and 2008 vehicle models that offer a choice of powertrains.

    我們看到多個客戶的駕駛艙電子設備、ICE 混合動力汽車以及電池電動車都取得了穩步增長,其中包括梅賽德斯 EQ 和雷諾 R4 和 R5 電動車、福特的 Puma Transit 和運輸車以及提供動力系統選擇的標緻 208 和 2008 車型。

  • Our sales in Europe also benefited from our recent engineering services acquisition, partially offsetting some of this strength was the production downtime at JLR, where operations were halted for the entire month of September, due to a cyberattack impacting our Q3 sales by approximately $12 million. In the rest of Asia, excluding China, we continue to make progress on our strategic initiatives to diversify our customer base and expand into the 2-wheeler market.

    我們在歐洲的銷售也受益於我們最近收購的工程服務,但捷豹路虎的生產停工部分抵消了這一優勢,由於網路攻擊影響了我們第三季度的銷售額約 1200 萬美元,捷豹路虎的整個 9 月份的生產都處於停頓狀態。在中國以外的亞洲其他地區,我們繼續推動戰略舉措,以多元化我們的客戶群並拓展兩輪車市場。

  • In Q3, sales benefited from ongoing traction in the 2-wheeler market and from the recent launch of our digital cluster program across multiple car lines with Mitsubishi. Offsetting these were declines in vehicle production at a few of our customers in the region.

    第三季度,銷售受益於兩輪車市場的持續成長以及我們最近與三菱合作在多條汽車生產線上推出的數位集群計畫。與此相抵消的是,該地區部分客戶的汽車產量有所下降。

  • In China, third quarter sales declined year over year as expected, primarily driven by negative vehicle mix with Geely and the ongoing market share loss of global OEMs, partially offset by new product launches. On a sequential basis, however, sales remained stable, supported by key programs, including the new Buick GL8 with GM, Toyota Corolla, and the cockpit domain controller with Geely. We believe this performance represents a baseline level for our China business, from which we expect to return to growth in the coming years.

    在中國,第三季銷量年減,符合預期,主要原因是吉利汽車的車型組合不佳以及全球原始設備製造商的市場份額持續下降,但新產品的推出部分抵消了這一影響。但環比來看,銷量保持穩定,這得益於與通用汽車合作的新款別克 GL8、豐田卡羅拉以及與吉利合作的座艙域控制器等關鍵項目的支持。我們相信這一業績代表了我們中國業務的基準水平,我們預計未來幾年將恢復成長。

  • Turning to page 4. We launched 28 new products across 10 different OEMs in the third quarter, underscoring the market fit of our product and technology portfolio as well as our program execution capabilities. These launches spanned a broad range of vehicle segments and geographies and were featured on several flagship vehicle models, reinforcing the trust our customers place in our ability to execute and deliver these complex systems.

    翻到第 4 頁。我們在第三季向 10 家不同的 OEM 推出了 28 款新產品,凸顯了我們的產品和技術組合的市場契合度以及我們的專案執行能力。這些產品發布涵蓋了廣泛的汽車領域和地區,並應用於多款旗艦車型,增強了客戶對我們執行和交付這些複雜系統的能力的信任。

  • Some key highlights include an audio infotainment system on the Ford Super Duty and a multi-display system for the Chevy Corvette at GM. Large displays are becoming key requirements in all regions. We launched a new dual display system on the Renault Boreal, which is a C-segment SUV based on the Dacia Bixter for markets outside of Europe with first launch in Brazil.

    一些主要亮點包括福特 Super Duty 上的音訊資訊娛樂系統和通用汽車雪佛蘭 Corvette 上的多顯示系統。大型顯示器正成為所有地區的關鍵要求。我們在雷諾 Boreal 上推出了新的雙顯示系統,這是一款基於達契亞 Bixter 的 C 級 SUV,面向歐洲以外的市場,並首先在巴西推出。

  • In 2-wheelers, we launched digital clusters across three models with TVS in India, our first with this OEM. TVS is the third largest 2-wheeler manufacturer in India, with annual sales of about 3 million vehicles. This is also the first introduction of an all-digital cluster by this OEM, highlighting the growing trend of digitalization in the 2-wheeler market.

    在兩輪車領域,我們在印度的三款車型上推出了帶有 TVS 的數位集群,這是我們首次與該 OEM 合作。TVS是印度第三、大二輪車製造商,年銷售量約300萬輛。這也是該主機廠首次推出全數位儀錶板,彰顯了兩輪車市場數位化日益增長的趨勢。

  • In Commercial Vehicles, we introduced a SmartCore-based cockpit system for off-road construction equipment with Volvo that enables advanced features, such as dig assist for excavators and load assist for wheel loaders that delivers high excavation accuracy in a fraction of the time compared to conventional methods. These systems use multiple sensors and highly accurate GPS technology to run sophisticated software algorithms on our proven SmartCore platform.

    在商用車領域,我們與沃爾沃合作,為非公路建築設備推出了基於 SmartCore 的駕駛艙系統,該系統可實現先進的功能,例如挖掘機的挖掘輔助和輪式裝載機的負載輔助,與傳統方法相比,它們可以在很短的時間內實現較高的挖掘精度。這些系統使用多個感測器和高精度 GPS 技術在我們成熟的 SmartCore 平台上運行複雜的軟體演算法。

  • Lastly, we launched an upgraded SmartCore cockpit domain controller on the refresh Zeekr 001 luxury electric vehicle. The 001 has been a successful vehicle for Geely with over 300,000 sold since its introduction in 2021, and the latest version will be offered in six countries in Europe besides China.

    最後,我們在更新版 Zeekr 001 豪華電動車上推出了升級版的 SmartCore 座艙控制器。001 是吉利的一款成功車型,自 2021 年推出以來已售出超過 30 萬輛,最新版本除中國外也將在歐洲六個國家上市。

  • New product launches with customers such as Geely and Cherry remain central to our strategy for returning to growth in China. Our Q3 launches illustrate the fit of our products for not only the passenger car market, but also 2-wheeler and commercial vehicle markets. Year-to-date, we have now introduced 65 new products, reflecting our continued focus on innovation, and disciplined program execution.

    與吉利和奇瑞等客戶合作推出新產品仍然是我們在中國恢復成長策略的核心。我們在第三季推出的產品顯示我們的產品不僅適用於乘用車市場,也適用於兩輪車和商用車市場。今年迄今為止,我們已推出 65 款新產品,體現了我們對創新的持續關注和嚴格的專案執行。

  • Turning to page 5. Q3 was another strong quarter for new business wins, and we now expect to close the year at greater than $7 billion, higher than our initial target of $6 billion. Year-to-date, we have secured $5.7 billion in new business awards, which is up from $4.9 billion in the same period last year, with wins across 21 unique OEM customers.

    翻到第 5 頁。第三季新業務成長強勁,我們預計全年營收將超過70億美元,高於我們最初設定的60億美元目標。年初至今,我們獲得了 57 億美元的新業務獎勵,高於去年同期的 49 億美元,贏得了 21 家獨特的 OEM 客戶。

  • The product mix is led by displays, which represent more than half of our total awards so far this year, as carmakers seek to refresh and differentiate the cockpit experience, even on existing vehicle platforms. Importantly, we also secured $2.3 billion in new SmartCore digital cluster and infotainment programs despite a relatively slow quoting environment, as carmakers adjust to rapidly changing market dynamics. The strong performance reflects the strength of our product and technology portfolio, which continues to lead the auto industry and help us in expanding into two-wheeler and commercial vehicle markets.

    產品組合中顯示器佔據了主導地位,佔今年迄今為止我們獲得獎項總數的一半以上,因為汽車製造商尋求更新和區分駕駛艙體驗,即使是在現有的汽車平台上。重要的是,儘管報價環境相對較慢,但隨著汽車製造商適應快速變化的市場動態,我們還獲得了 23 億美元的新 SmartCore 數位集群和資訊娛樂計劃。強勁的業績反映了我們產品和技術組合的實力,這繼續引領汽車行業並幫助我們擴展到兩輪車和商用車市場。

  • On the right side of the slide, you can see a few examples of notable wins this quarter. We won a panoramic display with a European OEM covering both hybrid and battery-electric models launching in mid-2028. This is our first win with this brand and the display will initially debut in the European market with later expansion into other major markets.

    在幻燈片的右側,您可以看到本季取得的一些顯著勝利的例子。我們贏得了一家歐洲 OEM 的全景展示,涵蓋 2028 年中期推出的混合動力和電池電動車型。這是我們與該品牌的首次合作,該展示將首先在歐洲市場亮相,隨後擴展到其他主要市場。

  • Another significant win is for a large dual driver and passenger display for a premium luxury brand. Our product integrates to OLED panels under a single cover glass, featuring switchable privacy for their display. Our competitiveness on technology and cost supported by our in-house design and manufacturing capabilities were critical factors in securing this business.

    另一項重大勝利是為高端豪華品牌配備了大型雙駕駛員和乘客顯示器。我們的產品整合在單一覆蓋玻璃下的 OLED 面板上,具有可切換的顯示器隱私功能。我們在內部設計和製造能力的支持下在技術和成本方面的競爭力是確保這項業務的關鍵因素。

  • In Asia, we continue to expand with the world's largest OEM, winning a digital cluster program for an affordable performance model, another step in deepening our relationship with this key customer. And in China, we secured a SmartCore high-performance computer program with Cherry, which will enable AI capabilities to enhance the cockpit user experience.

    在亞洲,我們繼續與全球最大的 OEM 合作,贏得了一款經濟實惠的性能模型的數位集群項目,這是我們與這位關鍵客戶深化關係的又一步。在中國,我們與 Cherry 合作開發了 SmartCore 高性能電腦程序,該程序將透過人工智慧功能增強駕駛艙用戶體驗。

  • Cherry is one of China's leading domestic OEMs and also a leading exporter of vehicles. The product will initially launch in their plug-in hybrid SUV models, followed by the next generation of battery electric vehicles. This represents our second HPC win in China, the first was with Zeekr. And when these two programs launched in the second half of 2026, they will be the most advanced systems globally, setting a new benchmark for next-generation cockpit products.

    奇瑞是中國領先的本土汽車製造商之一,也是領先的汽車出口商。該產品將首先在其插電式混合動力SUV車型上推出,隨後將推出下一代電池電動車。這是我們在中國第二次獲得 HPC 獎項,第一次是與 Zeekr 合作。當這兩個項目在2026年下半年正式啟動時,它們將成為全球最先進的系統,為下一代座艙產品樹立新的標竿。

  • Turning to page 6. Just a few years ago, electric vehicles and China were seen as the two most significant growth drivers for the industry. However, that has changed quite rapidly over the past couple of years, and the industry reality is very different today. EV adoption outside of China has progressed more gradually than many had anticipated, and recent policy changes in the US present additional challenges.

    翻到第 6 頁。就在幾年前,電動車和中國還被視為該產業最重要的兩個成長動力。然而,過去幾年情況發生了迅速變化,如今的行業現實已大不相同。中國以外地區電動車的普及進展比許多人預期的要緩慢,而美國最近的政策變化也帶來了額外的挑戰。

  • In China, the large number of car brands operating in that market has triggered a fierce price war that has raised on for the past couple of years and resulted in notable changes in OEM market share. On the technology front, artificial intelligence has overtaken SDV as the most exciting technology trend with Chinese OEMs leading the industry in early adoption of this technology.

    在中國,由於汽車品牌數量眾多,引發了近兩年來激烈的價格戰,導致整車廠市佔率發生明顯變化。在技​​術方面,人工智慧已經超越 SDV 成為最令人興奮的技術趨勢,中國 OEM 在早期採用該技術方面處於行業領先地位。

  • In response, we have taken deliberate steps to broaden our strategic initiatives to address the air pockets in our growth trajectory created by these industry dynamics. I would like to take a few minutes to share how we are thinking about these evolving industry trends and the progress we are making on our broader growth initiatives.

    作為回應,我們採取了深思熟慮的措施來擴大我們的策略舉措,以解決這些產業動態在我們的成長軌跡中造成的氣泡。我想花幾分鐘時間分享我們對這些不斷發展的行業趨勢的看法以及我們在更廣泛的成長計劃上取得的進展。

  • Carmakers outside of China are launching new vehicle models that offer a choice of powertrain, ICE, hybrid and battery electric and with larger displays and advanced cockpit electronics. This is especially the case in Europe as carmakers prepared to compete against Chinese imports.

    中國以外的汽車製造商正在推出新的車型,提供動力系統、內燃機、混合動力和電池電動等多種選擇,並配有更大的顯示器和先進的駕駛艙電子設備。歐洲的情況尤其如此,因為汽車製造商準備與中國進口汽車競爭。

  • We are seeing strong interest in our large displays and latest SmartCore technology for these new vehicles. In the third quarter alone, we launched five new cockpit electronics programs for OEMs in Europe and China and have five additional SmartCore systems under active development with OEMs in Europe and Asia, with launches starting in Q4 of 2025.

    我們看到人們對這些新車的大型顯示器和最新的 SmartCore 技術產生了濃厚的興趣。僅在第三季度,我們就為歐洲和中國的原始設備製造商推出了五個新的駕駛艙電子設備項目,並且正在與歐洲和亞洲的原始設備製造商積極開發另外五個 SmartCore 系統,並將於 2025 年第四季度開始推出。

  • We are also making progress with Cherry, where we will launch our first display program in early 2026 for the European market. This initial program served as a strategic entry point, enabling us to expand our relationship with Cherry during the third quarter in the China market with another new business win. Artificial intelligence has the potential to significantly enhance the user experience delivered by cockpit systems. AI-enabled cockpit is an emerging technology trend, and Visteon has positioned itself well with the introduction of the high-performance version of SmartCore and cognitoAI framework, the first of its kind in the industry.

    我們與 Cherry 的合作也取得了進展,我們將於 2026 年初向歐洲市場推出我們的第一個展示項目。這個初始計劃作為一個戰略切入點,使我們能夠在第三季度擴大與 Cherry 在中國市場的合作關係,並贏得另一項新業務。人工智慧有可能顯著增強駕駛艙系統提供的使用者體驗。人工智慧座艙是新興的技術趨勢,偉世通率先在業界推出高性能版SmartCore和cognitoAI框架,佔據了有利地位。

  • In Q3, we secured our second high-performance compute win, this time with Cherry, joining Zeekr as key initial customers for this exciting new technology. We have discussed previously our initiatives to broaden our opportunities by focusing on underrepresented car OEMs in Asia, while expanding into adjacent transportation markets of 2-wheelers and commercial vehicle OEMs.

    在第三季度,我們贏得了第二個高效能運算客戶,這次是與 Cherry 合作,Cherry 與 Zeekr 一起成為這項令人興奮的新技術的關鍵初始客戶。我們之前曾討論過我們的舉措,即透過關注亞洲代表性不足的汽車原始設備製造商來拓寬我們的機會,同時擴展到兩輪車和商用車原始設備製造商的相鄰運輸市場。

  • We are also expanding our product portfolio with new in-house developed products, such as the App Store and cameras for ADAS applications. In the third quarter, we made solid progress. We launched an app store with Maruti Suzuki in India, our first launch of this product, which now supports over 100 apps that are available for download. We are also working with two additional OEMs for the launch of this app store in their vehicles in 2026. We also launched multiple products in the 2-wheeler and commercial vehicle markets, which have already highlighted earlier in the call.

    我們也透過新的內部開發產品(例如 App Store 和用於 ADAS 應用的攝影機)擴展我們的產品組合。第三季度,我們取得了紮實的進展。我們與印度的 Maruti Suzuki 合作推出了一個應用程式商店,這是我們首次推出該產品,目前支援超過 100 個可供下載的應用程式。我們還與另外兩家 OEM 合作,計劃於 2026 年在他們的車輛上推出該應用程式商店。我們也在兩輪車和商用車市場推出了多款產品,這些產品在電話會議早些時候已經強調過。

  • Year-to-date, roughly 25% of our new business wins are tied to our strategic growth initiatives, a key reason we now expect to exceed our original new business win target by at least $1 billion. Overall, we remain confident in the long-term prospects for the business. In addition to our top line opportunities, we continue to expand margins, generate strong cash flow and deliver best-in-class returns on invested capital.

    今年迄今為止,我們大約 25% 的新業務勝利與我們的策略性成長計畫相關,這是我們現在預計將比原定的新業務勝利目標高出至少 10 億美元的關鍵原因。總體而言,我們對該業務的長期前景仍然充滿信心。除了我們的頂線機會之外,我們還繼續擴大利潤率,產生強勁的現金流並提供一流的投資資本回報。

  • With that, I'll hand it over to Jerome, who will walk you through the financials in more detail. Jerome?

    說完這些,我將把它交給傑羅姆,他將向你更詳細地介紹財務狀況。傑羅姆?

  • Jerome Rouquet - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Jerome Rouquet - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Thank you, Sachin, and good morning, everyone. Consistent with recent quarters, we again delivered a strong operational and cost performance as well as a robust cash generation despite sales being slightly lower than originally expected. For the quarter, sales were $917 million, a 6% decline from the prior year. We continue to see strong growth in cockpit electronics across the Americas and Europe, along with higher engineering services revenue on a year over year basis. As expected, this was more than offset by lower battery management system sales in the Americas and reduced sales in China.

    謝謝你,Sachin,大家早安。與最近幾季的情況一致,儘管銷售額略低於最初的預期,但我們再次實現了強勁的營運和成本績效以及強勁的現金產生。本季銷售額為 9.17 億美元,較上年下降 6%。我們繼續看到美洲和歐洲駕駛艙電子設備的強勁成長,同時工程服務收入較去年同期成長。正如預期的那樣,美洲電池管理系統銷量下降和中國銷量下降抵消了這一增長。

  • However, what we did not expect was the negative impact of JLR unplanned shutdown for the entire month of September, which represented a little over a point of sales. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter came in at $119 million underscoring our continued focus on operational execution and disciplined cost control.

    然而,我們沒有想到的是,捷豹路虎非計劃停產對整個9月份產生了負面影響,這相當於銷售額下降了一個多點。本季調整後的 EBITDA 達到 1.19 億美元,凸顯了我們持續專注於營運執行和嚴格的成本控制。

  • Adjusted EBITDA margin was 13%, benefited from our ongoing efforts in product costing and productivity. We did have net positive nonrecurring items this quarter, which contributed approximately 0.5 point to the margin. Adjusted free cash flow was $110 million, driven by a robust EBITDA performance as well as favorable timing of cash flows.

    調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 13%,受益於我們在產品成本和生產力方面的持續努力。本季我們確實有淨正非經常性項目,這對利潤率貢獻了約 0.5 個百分點。調整後的自由現金流為 1.1 億美元,這得益於強勁的 EBITDA 業績以及有利的現金流時機。

  • During the quarter, we paid our first quarterly dividend, marking an important step in continuing to return capital to shareholders and reinforcing our commitment to a balanced capital allocation strategy. We closed the quarter with $459 million in net cash, giving us the flexibility to continue investing in the business, pursuing technology accretive acquisitions while delivering shareholder returns.

    在本季度,我們支付了第一筆季度股息,這標誌著我們繼續向股東返還資本並加強對平衡資本配置策略的承諾邁出了重要一步。本季結束時,我們的淨現金為 4.59 億美元,這使我們能夠靈活地繼續投資業務,進行技術增值收購,同時為股東帶來回報。

  • Turning to page 9. Sales for the quarter were $917 million, down $63 million year over year. Customer production volumes remained essentially flat, while growth versus market was negative 5% for the period. Growth over market came in below our expectations this quarter, driven by a combination of factors. First, production mix was a headwind. Several of our key customers, including Geely and others saw increases in overall production volumes, but not on a specific vehicle lines where we have content. This diluted our growth over market performance.

    翻到第 9 頁。本季銷售額為 9.17 億美元,年減 6,300 萬美元。客戶產量基本不變,而同期市場成長率為-5%。受多種因素影響,本季市場成長低於我們的預期。首先,生產結構是一個阻力。我們的幾個主要客戶,包括吉利和其他公司,整體產量都有所增加,但我們擁有產品的特定車型生產線的產量卻沒有增加。這削弱了我們的成長,抵消了市場表現。

  • Second, as we have discussed, JLR was another headwind. Sales with JLR were on track to outpace the customer's production before the shutdown, which impacted the contribution to growth over market. Customer recoveries, primarily tied to prior semiconductor cost increases, reduced sales by approximately 2% year over year, as those input costs continue to decline. Normal annual price reductions to customers were around 1%, consistent with our historical average. FX provided a modest benefit in the quarter.

    其次,正如我們所討論的,捷豹路虎是另一個逆風。在停產之前,捷豹路虎的銷售量可望超過客戶的產量,這影響了對市場成長的貢獻。客戶恢復主要與先前半導體成本的增加有關,由於這些投入成本持續下降,銷售額比去年同期下降了約 2%。每年對客戶的正常降價幅度約為 1%,與我們的歷史平均值一致。外匯在本季度帶來了適度的收益。

  • Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $119 million, flat compared to the prior year. However, adjusted EBITDA margin improved by 90 basis points, reflecting strong performance in product costing and productivity, the benefit of onetime items as well as contribution from M&A. These gains were offset by the flow-through impact of lower sales. Net engineering as a percentage of sales was 6.3% for the quarter and includes the recent engineering services acquisitions we have made over the last 12 months.

    本季調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.19 億美元,與前一年持平。然而,調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率提高了 90 個基點,反映了產品成本和生產力的強勁表現、一次性專案的收益以及併購的貢獻。這些收益被銷售額下降的流通影響所抵銷。本季淨工程佔銷售額的百分比為 6.3%,其中包括我們在過去 12 個月內進行的近期工程服務收購。

  • Excluding the acquisitions, our net engineering expense remains in the 5% range, slightly lower than our original expectations for the quarter. We continue to leverage our platform approach and best cost footprint while advancing multiple initiatives to improve engineering productivity. At the same time, we are investing in strategic engineering capabilities, including AI applications to support our upcoming high-performance compute launches in China and the development of cognitoAI. Adjusted SG&A was 4.9% of sales, reflecting a healthy balance between ongoing cost controls and targeted investment in key teams and technologies to support future growth.

    不包括收購,我們的淨工程費用仍在 5% 左右,略低於我們對本季的最初預期。我們將繼續利用我們的平台方法和最佳成本足跡,同時推動多項措施來提高工程生產力。同時,我們正在投資戰略工程能力,包括人工智慧應用程序,以支援我們即將在中國推出的高效能運算和認知人工智慧的發展。調整後的銷售、一般及行政費用佔銷售額的 4.9%,反映了持續成本控制與對關鍵團隊和技術的有針對性的投資之間的健康平衡,以支持未來的成長。

  • Our normalized margins remained in the mid-12% range, and Q3 provides another data point illustrating the run rate of the business. The sustainable margin performance continues to be driven by the cost initiatives we have undertaken, including product costing, engineering productivity, platform-based product development, and AI-driven process improvements while continuing to invest in the business.

    我們的標準化利潤率保持在 12% 左右,第三季提供了另一個數據點來說明業務的運作率。可持續的利潤率表現繼續受到我們採取的成本舉措的推動,包括產品成本核算、工程生產力、基於平台的產品開發和人工智慧驅動的過程改進,同時繼續對業務進行投資。

  • Turning to page 10. Visteon generated $215 million of adjusted free cash flow through the first three quarters of the year. We continue to benefit from a robust level of adjusted EBITDA, converting EBITDA to cash at a 56% rate, still above our 40% target when excluding the working capital inflow. Trade working capital was a net inflow, reflecting lower sales and strong collections, partially offset by higher inventory levels associated with the unplanned shutdown at JLR. Cash taxes were higher compared to last year, driven by continued improvement in profitability across most jurisdictions as well as the timing of cash payments.

    翻到第 10 頁。偉世通今年前三個季度產生了 2.15 億美元的調整後自由現金流。我們繼續受益於強勁的調整後 EBITDA 水平,將 EBITDA 轉換為現金的比率為 56%,在不包括營運資金流入的情況下仍高於我們 40% 的目標。貿易營運資本為淨流入,反映出銷售額下降和回款強勁,但因捷豹路虎意外停產導致庫存水準上升而部分抵銷了這一影響。現金稅與去年相比有所增加,這得益於大多數司法管轄區的盈利能力持續改善以及現金支付的時間安排。

  • Net interest remained a positive contributor as interest income earned on our cash exceeded the interest expense paid on our debt. We also had an outflow this year related to our 2024 annual incentive program, which was paid in 2025 and at higher levels than the prior year, reflecting the strong financial and operational performance in 2024. In addition to this payout in the first quarter, other changes this year, including US pension contributions and the timing of various other cash flows.

    淨利息仍然是一個積極的貢獻者,因為我們的現金所賺取的利息收入超過了我們債務所支付的利息支出。我們今年也出現了與 2024 年年度激勵計畫相關的資金流出,該計畫於 2025 年支付,且支付水準高於上一年,反映了 2024 年強勁的財務和營運業績。除了第一季的這筆支出外,今年還有其他變化,包括美國退休金繳款和其他各種現金流的時間表。

  • Capital expenditures were $88 million, representing 3.1% of sales and were slightly below our full year expected run rate. In the first three quarters of the year, in addition to ongoing investments supporting customer programs, we continue to invest in several vertical integration initiatives, as I have mentioned on previous calls. These initiatives allow us not only to improve our product costs, but as well to derisk our supply chain while controlling more of the technology that goes into our products.

    資本支出為 8,800 萬美元,佔銷售額的 3.1%,略低於我們全年預期的運作率。正如我在之前的電話會議上提到的那樣,在今年前三個季度,除了持續投資支援客戶計畫之外,我們還繼續投資於幾項垂直整合計畫。這些措施不僅使我們能夠改善產品成本,還能降低供應鏈風險,同時控制更多產品技術。

  • In the quarter, we paid our first quarterly dividend approximately $8 million. We ended the quarter with $765 million of cash and a net cash balance of $459 million. In the fourth quarter, we plan to increase our capital allocation to shareholders. In addition to our recurring quarterly dividend of $0.275 per share, we will return additional capital through share repurchases. We currently have approximately $125 million of authorization remaining under our existing program and anticipate retiring between $20 million and $30 million of shares during the quarter.

    本季度,我們支付了第一筆季度股息約 800 萬美元。本季末,我們的現金為 7.65 億美元,淨現金餘額為 4.59 億美元。第四季度,我們計劃增加對股東的資本配置。除了每股 0.275 美元的經常性季度股利外,我們還將透過股票回購返還額外資本。目前,我們現有計畫下剩餘的授權金額約為 1.25 億美元,預計本季將註銷價值 2,000 萬至 3,000 萬美元的股票。

  • We may go beyond that range on an opportunistic basis, depending on market conditions. This puts us on track to complete the program by the end of next year, consistent with the plan we laid out during our 2023 Investor Day.

    根據市場情況,我們可能會擇機超越該範圍。這使我們預計在明年年底前完成該計劃,與我們在 2023 年投資者日制定的計劃一致。

  • Turning to page 11. Our current outlook remains within the range of our previous guidance. On sales, we are now tracking below the midpoint of the range, closer to approximately $3.75 billion, reflecting the latest customer schedules. First, we are incorporating a reduction in battery management system sales following the elimination of the 7,500 EV tax credits in the US. We expect this headwind to persist into 2026.

    翻到第 11 頁。我們目前的展望仍在我們先前的指導範圍內。就銷售額而言,我們目前的銷售額低於該範圍的中點,接近約 37.5 億美元,反映了最新的客戶計劃。首先,隨著美國取消 7,500 個電動車稅收抵免,我們將減少電池管理系統的銷售量。我們預計這種不利因素將持續到 2026 年。

  • Second, we have incorporated some continued level of production disruptions at JLR throughout mid-November. Under normal conditions, JLR contributes approximately $10 million to $13 million in monthly sales. Finally, we are also adjusting our outlook for our largest customer, Ford, due to some scheduled downtime resulting from their aluminum supplier plant fire.

    其次,11 月中旬,捷豹路虎的生產中斷現象持續存在。正常情況下,捷豹路虎每月的銷售額約為1,000萬至1,300萬美元。最後,我們也調整了我們最大客戶福特的前景,因為其鋁供應商工廠發生火災,導致了一些計畫停工。

  • We believe the JLR shutdown and scheduled downtime at Ford with an estimated impact of $30 million to $40 million are temporary in nature and do not reflect the underlying run rate of our business. Focusing on Q4, we anticipate a modest sequential increase compared to Q3. We expect to benefit from new program launches and higher customer production volumes, which we believe should more than offset the incremental headwinds from the aluminum supply disruption and lower BMS sales.

    我們認為,捷豹路虎停產和福特計劃停工造成的預計 3,000 萬至 4,000 萬美元的影響是暫時的,並不反映我們業務的基本運作率。著眼於第四季度,我們預計與第三季度相比將出現小幅環比增長。我們預計將受益於新項目的啟動和更高的客戶產量,我們相信這應該足以抵消鋁供應中斷和 BMS 銷售下降帶來的增量阻力。

  • The impact from JLR is expected to be similar in both quarters. For growth of the market, we anticipate improvement in the fourth quarter compared to Q3 despite some of the near-term headwinds. For the full year, we currently estimate growth of the market will land in the low single digits. This is below our previous expectations, largely due to the factors I've outlined already, namely production mix where customer volumes have increased, but not necessarily on the platforms we support, a decline in battery management system volumes in Q4 and temporary headwinds from JLR and the disruption caused by the aluminum supplier fire.

    預計捷豹路虎對兩季的影響將相似。對於市場成長而言,儘管近期存在一些不利因素,我們預計第四季市場將比第三季有所改善。就全年而言,我們目前估計市場成長率將達到個位數低點。這低於我們先前的預期,主要是由於我已經概述的因素,即生產組合中客戶數量有所增加,但不一定在我們支持的平台上,第四季度電池管理系統產量下降以及來自捷豹路虎的暫時阻力和鋁供應商火災造成的中斷。

  • Our adjusted EBITDA is trending towards the high end of the guidance range. We anticipate Q4 EBITDA margins to be in the mid-12% range, consistent with the run rate we have delivered for the last three quarters. Adjusted free cash flow is also trending towards the high end of our range, if not slightly higher. CapEx is trending closer to $140 million, slightly lower than originally anticipated, despite our ongoing investment in the business in sourcing activities and the expected purchase of land for a second manufacturing location in India to support our growing business there.

    我們的調整後 EBITDA 正趨向於指導範圍的高端。我們預計第四季度 EBITDA 利潤率將在 12% 左右,與過去三個季度的運行率一致。調整後的自由現金流也趨向於我們預期範圍的高端,甚至略高一些。儘管我們持續對採購活動進行投資,並計劃購買土地用於在印度建立第二個製造基地,以支持我們在那裡不斷增長的業務,但資本支出趨勢接近 1.4 億美元,略低於最初的預期。

  • We continue to actively pursue vertical integration opportunities, and our CapEx includes investments this year in several areas, including magnesium injections, display manufacturing and camera assembly. Our outlook illustrates the operational and commercial discipline we continue to deliver on with adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow, well above our expectations coming into the year despite more modest sales performance than expected.

    我們繼續積極尋求垂直整合機會,今年我們的資本支出包括多個領域的投資,包括鎂注射、顯示器製造和相機組裝。我們的展望表明,儘管銷售業績低於預期,但調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後的自由現金流仍遠高於我們對今年的預期,我們將繼續嚴格執行營運和商業紀律。

  • The work we've been doing to win new businesses, expand margins, vertically integrate and generate more cash provides a great foundation for the long term. Finally, I would like to flag a developing risk for both Visteon and the entire automotive industry related to recent trade restrictions imposed by the Chinese government on Nexperia, a supplier of transistors, diodes and other discrete semiconductors to Visteon and the entire automotive industry.

    我們為贏得新業務、擴大利潤、垂直整合和創造更多現金所做的工作為長期發展奠定了良好的基礎。最後,我想指出,中國政府最近對 Nexperia 實施的貿易限制,對偉世通和整個汽車產業來說,是一個正在形成的風險。 Nexperia 是偉世通和整個汽車產業的電晶體、二極體和其他分立半導體供應商。

  • The trade restrictions prohibits Nexperia from exporting components outside of China is limiting sales within China and could disrupt production similar to what we experienced in 2021. We understand that Nexperia is currently working to obtain an export license, which has historically taken approximately 45 business days, although details remain uncertain. We hold approximately 30 days of inventory for most affected parts and are actively working to mitigate direct risk to Visteon by qualifying and procuring compatible parts through brokers and distributors.

    貿易限制禁止 Nexperia 向中國境外出口零件,從而限制了中國境內的銷售,並可能擾亂生產,類似於我們在 2021 年經歷的情況。我們了解到,Nexperia 目前正在努力獲得出口許可證,這通常需要大約 45 個工作天,但具體細節仍不確定。我們持有大多數受影響零件的大約 30 天的庫存,並正在積極努力透過經紀人和分銷商對相容零件進行認證和採購,以減輕偉世通的直接風險。

  • The indirect exposure is hard to estimate as Nexperia components are widely used across the industry and could materially impact customer production schedules. At this stage, it is uncertain whether this risk will materialize or what the impact would be, and accordingly, this risk is not factored into our guidance for all 3 metrics.

    由於 Nexperia 組件在整個行業中被廣泛使用,並且可能對客戶的生產計劃產生重大影響,因此間接影響很難估計。現階段,尚不確定這種風險是否會成為現實,也不確定會產生什麼影響,因此,我們在對所有 3 個指標的指導中並未考慮到這種風險。

  • Turning to page 12. Visteon remains a compelling long-term investment opportunity. We expect to benefit from higher demand for more digital content in the cockpit regardless of powertrain. Visteon is well positioned for long-term top line growth, margin expansion and free cash flow generation, while our strong balance sheet provides us with significant flexibility to pursue our capital allocation priorities.

    翻到第 12 頁。偉世通仍然是一個引人注目的長期投資機會。無論動力系統如何,我們都希望從駕駛艙內對更多數位內容的更高需求中受益。偉世通已做好充分準備,實現長期營收成長、利潤率擴大和自由現金流生成,而我們強勁的資產負債表為我們追求資本配置優先事項提供了極大的靈活性。

  • Thank you for your time today. I would like now to open the call for your questions.

    感謝您今天抽出時間。現在我想開始回答大家的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • Luke Junk, Baird.

    盧克·簡克,貝爾德。

  • Luke Junk - Analyst

    Luke Junk - Analyst

  • Sachin, maybe to start with the forward-looking question. You mentioned in the script, your expectation of returning to a cadence of growth in China. I'm just wondering, how should we think about that into '26, especially through the year and especially thinking about the materiality of the CDC wins into the back half of 2026.

    薩欽,也許我們可以從前瞻性的問題開始。您在劇本中提到,您期望中國經濟恢復成長節奏。我只是想知道,我們應該如何看待 2026 年的情況,尤其是全年的情況,尤其是考慮到 CDC 勝利在 2026 年下半年的重要性。

  • Sachin Lawande - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sachin Lawande - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, Luke. So if you think about our business in China, right, it has, as we discussed, stabilized in Q3, and we expect that to continue into Q4, and there are launches in China in starting Q4, but also more into 2026. I think we have about 20 new model launches happening next year, but it is predominantly back half loaded, especially with those two high-performance compute SmartCore launches, which have also very high value. We expect to be able to outperform customer vehicle production in China next year.

    是的,盧克。因此,如果您考慮我們在中國的業務,那麼正如我們所討論的,它在第三季度已經穩定下來,我們預計這種趨勢將持續到第四季度,並且我們將在第四季度開始在中國推出更多產品,但到 2026 年還會有更多產品推出。我認為明年我們會推出大約 20 款新車型,但主要是半載車型,尤其是兩款高性能運算 SmartCore 的推出,它們的價值也非常高。我們預計明年的汽車產量能夠超越中國的客戶。

  • Now today, as we stand, I think S&P Global is forecasting customer production volume in China to be lower next year, but I believe it's still too early to call that. And I think there will be some changes. I'll no more be in China next month, and we'll have much better visibility into it. But overall, our expectations are that we would be returning to a growth over market performance back in China next year.

    現在,就目前情況而言,我認為標準普爾全球預測明年中國的客戶產量將會下降,但我認為現在下結論還為時過早。我認為會有一些變化。下個月我將不再去中國,這樣我們對中國的情況就會有更深入的了解。但總體而言,我們預計明年中國市場的表現將恢復成長。

  • Luke Junk - Analyst

    Luke Junk - Analyst

  • Got it. And then for my follow-up, just circling back to Nexperia, Jerome, I appreciate your comments on the direct impacts. What about the indirect and just latest intel on what your customers are telling you what their production-related risk might be?

    知道了。然後,對於我的後續問題,回到 Nexperia,傑羅姆,我很感謝您對直接影響的評論。那麼,您的客戶告訴您與生產相關的風險可能是什麼,您又如何獲得間接和最新的情報?

  • Sachin Lawande - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sachin Lawande - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Luke, I'll take this and maybe just provide some more context. Jerome already discussed a bit in his prepared remarks, but I think this is a question that might be on everyone's mind. So let me just take this opportunity and give you more context. So Nexperia is NXP standard parts division, right?

    是的。盧克,我會接受這個並且可能提供一些更多的背景資訊。傑羅姆在他的準備好的發言中已經討論了一些,但我認為這是一個每個人都可能關心的問題。因此,讓我藉此機會向您提供更多背景資訊。那麼 Nexperia 是 NXP 標準零件部門,對嗎?

  • It used to be part of NXP. And, therefore, in automotive, was widely used given how NXP was prevalent in automotive, got sold to Chinese investors in 2017 and then eventually, this company, Fintech Semi, acquired it in 2019. And I would say about 60% of their business is in auto, and they make very, I would say, inconsequential, but very needed components, things like transistors, MOSFETs, diodes, right?

    它曾經是 NXP 的一部分。因此,在汽車領域,由於 NXP 在汽車領域的廣泛應用,它於 2017 年出售給中國投資者,最終於 2019 年被 Fintech Semi 公司收購。我想說他們大約 60% 的業務是在汽車領域,他們生產的零件雖然不重要,但卻非常需要,例如電晶體、MOSFET、二極體,對吧?

  • And virtually, every single automotive electronics component has one or more of these parts in use. So that's the usage situation. Now what happened was on account of this issue between Nexperia, the Chinese owners and the Dutch government and the actions that were taken on September 30, by the Dutch government, that has kind of resulted into this escalation between the governments now it's become a little more of a diplomatic role. The short of it is from October 4 onwards, supply from Nexperia China essentially stopped. And that's going into all of these automotive components that I mentioned.

    實際上,每個汽車電子元件都使用一個或多個這樣的零件。這就是使用情況。現在發生的事情是由於 Nexperia、中國所有者和荷蘭政府之間的這個問題以及荷蘭政府於 9 月 30 日採取的行動,這在某種程度上導致了兩國政府之間的緊張局勢升級,現在它已經變得更像一個外交角色。簡而言之,從10月4日起,Nexperia中國區的供貨基本上停止。這涉及到我提到的所有汽車零件。

  • Now as Jerome mentioned, they've taken this -- or applied for an export permit, but I think this will require more of a government level intervention and resolution, which could happen any moment. I know that -- and this is also, I think, public information that the Commerce ministers of both sides are in talks to try to find a solution.

    正如傑羅姆所提到的,他們已經採取了行動,或者申請了出口許可證,但我認為這將需要更多的政府層面的干預和解決,而這可能隨時發生。我知道這一點——而且我認為,這也是公開訊息,雙方商務部長正在進行談判,試圖找到解決方案。

  • So we're hopeful that this is imminent and gets resolved. Now specifically about the impact of most suppliers tend to hold anywhere between two to three weeks of parts inventory on hand and maybe another week in transit and at the OEMs. So we're already into the third week now. And therefore, the criticality of this with every passing day will become higher.

    因此我們希望這個問題能夠盡快解決。現在具體來說,大多數供應商往往會持有可供兩到三週使用的零件庫存,並且可能還需要一周的時間在運輸途中和原始設備製造商處。現在我們已經進入第三週了。因此,這個問題的重要性將日益提高。

  • Now Visteon has had, since the last semiconductor crisis, a higher level of semiconductor parts inventory, just learning from our experience. And I would say that we probably have a little more cushion than our peers in the industry. At the same time, we are looking for alternate parts and also redesigning some of our products to be able to accept parts that are not strictly pin-to-pin compatible. However, all those things do take some time and that cannot be turned very quickly like what we might be required to do, if within the next week or 10 days, the supply does not resume.

    自上次半導體危機以來,偉世通的半導體零件庫存水準已經有所提高,這只是我們的經驗之談。我想說,我們可能比業內同行擁有更多的緩衝。同時,我們正在尋找替代部件,並重新設計我們的一些產品,以便能夠接受不嚴格引腳相容的部件。然而,所有這些事情都需要一些時間,如果在接下來的一周或十天內供應沒有恢復,那麼就無法像我們可能被要求的那樣迅速完成。

  • So we are hopeful that this thing will be resolved in that time frame, and we will not be required to impact our customers' production. But I believe, regardless that Visteon is probably not going to be the first 1 to impact our customers, given where we stand with our inventory and our ability to find alternate parts. Hopefully, it just gives you a little more context. And this is a developing story. So we will have to just watch this space very closely.

    因此,我們希望這個問題能夠在那個時間範圍內解決,並且不會影響我們客戶的生產。但我相信,考慮到我們的庫存狀況和尋找替代零件的能力,偉世通可能不會成為第一個影響我們客戶的公司。希望它能為您提供更多背景資訊。這是一個正在發展中的故事。所以我們必須密切關注這個領域。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Itay Michaeli, TD Cowen.

    Itay Michaeli,TD Cowen。

  • Itay Michaeli - Equity Analyst

    Itay Michaeli - Equity Analyst

  • Just curious if you can comment on just how some of the shifts in revenue and some maybe slipping into 2026, others maybe being more kind of onetime in nature is maybe influencing your thinking on the 5% CAGR target through 2027 as well, how we should think about BMS directionally into 2026.

    我只是好奇,您是否可以評論一下,一些收入的變化,一些可能會延續到 2026 年,其他一些可能更具一次性性質,可能會影響您對 2027 年 5% 複合年增長率目標的思考,我們應該如何看待 2026 年的 BMS 方向。

  • Sachin Lawande - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sachin Lawande - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Let me take this first, And then I'll invite Jerome to add anything that I might have missed. But when we think about 2026, although it is too early to really be specific, let me share some of the puts and takes as we see right now. First of all, S&P Global is forecasting vehicle production at our customers to be down next year, 3% to 4%, mainly in North America and China, but I do expect that to be revised as many of our customers that have been impacted by all of these things that we have discussed on the call will likely try to recover that cost production next year.

    是的。讓我先回答這個問題,然後我會請傑羅姆補充我可能遺漏的任何內容。但當我們考慮 2026 年時,雖然現在談論具體情況還為時過早,但讓我分享一下我們目前看到的一些情況。首先,標普全球預測我們客戶的汽車產量明年將下降 3% 至 4%,主要在北美和中國,但我確實希望這一預測能夠得到修正,因為我們的許多客戶都受到了我們在電話會議上討論的所有這些因素的影響,他們可能會在明年嘗試收回生產成本。

  • So we will have to, again, wait and watch how this develops, but my expectation is that it won't be as negative as S&P Global has the outlook today. Now when it comes to the two main headwinds we have faced this year, namely China and BMS, they will play out differently as we go forward. So first, China, as we discussed also in our prepared remarks, we'll start to come back to growth, based on the launches that we discussed, including the high-performance compute launches. And this growth will continue going forward into 2027, as we have additional launches coming in on top of the ones that I just mentioned.

    因此,我們將不得不再次等待並觀察事態如何發展,但我預計它不會像標準普爾全球今天的展望那樣負面。現在談到我們今年面臨的兩個主要逆風,即中國和 BMS,它們將隨著我們前進而發揮不同的作用。首先,中國,正如我們在準備好的發言中所討論的那樣,我們將開始恢復成長,基於我們討論過的發布,包括高效能運算的發布。這種成長將持續到 2027 年,因為除了我剛才提到的之外,我們還有更多的產品即將推出。

  • Now with BMS, we will have to still wait and see how this develops, but at least in 2026, our expectation is that given the headwinds that EVs faced, especially in the US, I expect our BMS revenue to continue to see some decline next year. and then maybe stabilize from that point. And we will have, at that point, also better comps as we go into 2027, and we expect that to be on the path for modest growth, and later in 2028, we also have our first power electronics products that launch.

    現在有了 BMS,我們仍然需要拭目以待,看看它如何發展,但至少在 2026 年,我們的預期是,鑑於電動車面臨的阻力,特別是在美國,我預計我們的 BMS 收入明年將繼續出現一些下降,然後可能從那時起趨於穩定。到 2027 年,我們的業績也將更加可觀,我們預計公司將走上溫和成長的道路,2028 年晚些時候,我們也將推出首款電力電子產品。

  • So our strategy for BMS and our electrification in general is to track with the market. We expect the market to increasingly outside of China, take a multi-energy approach when it comes to vehicle powertrains. And yes, the growth expectations have been calibrated significantly lower compared to where we were a couple of years ago. We still do believe that after this lapping that the locker hopefully by 2027, we expect electrification to also continue on a modest growth trajectory.

    因此,我們對 BMS 和電氣化的整體策略是追蹤市場。我們預計,中國以外的市場將越來越多地採用多能源方式來發展汽車動力系統。是的,與幾年前相比,成長預期已經大幅降低。我們仍然相信,經過這次迭代之後,到 2027 年,電氣化有望繼續保持溫和的成長軌跡。

  • Now as we think about '26 and '27, the other big factor, the one that we have discussed previously is our launches with Toyota, and we have several launches more than a dozen launches that are sort of split between 2026 and 2027. And therefore, the full year impact will be most felt in 2027. And that's where we see that step growth occur in our revenue as we go forward. We'll be talking a lot more about this on our fourth quarter call as we usually do, but I thought I would share with you some of the things that we see as we stand today.

    現在,當我們考慮 2026 年和 2027 年時,另一個重要因素,也就是我們之前討論過的因素,是我們與豐田的合作發布會,我們有十幾項發布會,分佈在 2026 年和 2027 年之間。因此,全年影響將在 2027 年最為明顯。這就是我們看到的,隨著我們不斷前進,我們的收入將逐步成長。像往常一樣,我們將在第四季度電話會議上更多地討論這個問題,但我想與大家分享我們今天看到的一些事情。

  • Itay Michaeli - Equity Analyst

    Itay Michaeli - Equity Analyst

  • No, that's super helpful. As a quick follow-up, congrats on the new business booking momentum this year. Is $7 billion sustainable, Sachin, next year and beyond? Or maybe there's some onetime ones in there this year?

    不,這非常有幫助。作為一個快速的後續行動,祝賀今年新業務預訂勢頭良好。薩欽,70 億美元在明年及以後是否可持續?或者也許今年有一些一次性的東西?

  • Sachin Lawande - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sachin Lawande - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • No. So let me first explain how -- what's the reason behind it so that there's a better appreciation for what we are seeing and how and why we think that higher levels would be sustained. So the main driver of our wins, even last year, and certainly this year, has been our success with displays, and the investments that we've been making since 2018 have continued to put us in a very strong position when it comes to more complex, larger displays for automotive.

    不。因此,讓我先解釋一下這背後的原因,以便我們更好地理解我們所看到的情況,以及我們認為如何以及為什麼能夠維持更高的水平。因此,我們成功的主要驅動力,無論是去年還是今年,都是我們在顯示器方面的成功,而我們自 2018 年以來所做的投資使我們在更複雜、更大的汽車顯示器方面繼續處於非常有利的地位。

  • Now this has helped us win new business, especially in US and Europe, at a time when coating activity has been lower than normal, especially for electronics. And the reason for that is that the OEMs in these regions have been adjusting or have been forced to adjust their new vehicle launch plans in response to the sudden in their outlook of EVs. Now in Asia, the OEMs there don't have this situation. And therefore, we are seeing opportunity for our full suite of products, including the cockpit electronics products. And therefore, we are winning SmartCore and SmartCore HPC are currently in Asia.

    現在,這幫助我們贏得了新業務,尤其是在美國和歐洲,而此時的塗層活動低於正常水平,尤其是電子產品。原因在於這些地區的原始設備製造商一直在調整或被迫調整其新車發布計劃,以應對電動車前景的突然轉變。現在在亞洲,那裡的OEM不存在這種情況。因此,我們看到了全套產品(包括駕駛艙電子產品)的機會。因此,我們贏得了 SmartCore,並且 SmartCore HPC 目前在亞洲。

  • Now I expect these OEMs in Europe and US to resume sourcing activity for the electronics are very soon as well, because otherwise, they will be noncompetitive, especially against the Chinese counterparts. So -- and that's what's reflected in our wins this year. If you look at Q3 year-to-date, about 40% of the wins were Europe or 25% in the Americas and then Asia made 33%.

    現在我預計歐洲和美國的這些原始設備製造商也將很快恢復電子產品的採購活動,否則,他們將失去競爭力,尤其是與中國同行相比。所以——這就是我們今年的勝利所反映的。如果你看今年第三季迄今的數據,你會發現大約 40% 的勝利來自歐洲,25% 來自美洲,而亞洲則佔 33%。

  • And on top of that, and this is really what is the reason why I think this is going to be sustainable, our initiatives with commercial vehicles and 2-wheelers have also contributed to a higher new business win growth. In fact, this year, I think we have more than doubled our new business wins in absolute dollar value over last year. And prior to that, it was a very small portion of our overall business. So all of these, I think, are sustainable. And as we have demonstrated this year in an environment that is pretty challenging, we seem to be able to win more than our fair share of the opportunities out there, it just speaks to the strength of our product portfolio and our cost competitiveness.

    除此之外,這也是我認為這將具有可持續性的原因,我們在商用車和兩輪車領域的舉措也促進了新業務的成長。事實上,我認為今年我們新業務的絕對美元價值比去年增加了一倍以上。在此之前,它只占我們整體業務的一小部分。所以我認為所有這些都是可持續的。正如我們今年在充滿挑戰的環境中所展示的那樣,我們似乎能夠贏得比我們應得的份額更多的機遇,這說明了我們的產品組合的實力和成本競爭力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Dan Levy, Barclays.

    巴克萊銀行的丹·利維。

  • Dan Levy - Analyst

    Dan Levy - Analyst

  • Jerome, I wanted to start with a question on the margins. And maybe you could just talk about the one-timers. And when we just add up everything for the year, how much is it -- what's the right jumping off point when we're going to start to do our bridges into '26? And then the other thing that I think that's relevant here is we know there's been a number of EV programs that have been delayed, canceled, and there's going to be some OEM recovery payments to suppliers. Maybe what is the magnitude of potential recoveries down the road?

    傑羅姆,我想從一個邊緣問題開始。也許你可以只談論一次性的事情。當我們把一年的所有事情加起來時,總數是多少——當我們開始為 26 年做橋樑時,正確的起點是什麼?我認為與此相關的另一件事是,我們知道有許多電動車項目被推遲或取消,並且一些 OEM 需要向供應商支付恢復費用。未來潛在的復甦規模究竟有多大?

  • Jerome Rouquet - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Jerome Rouquet - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yeah. Thanks for your question. The margins, I would say, have been very strong throughout the year. We've pretty much always exceeded our -- or let's say, the consensus or our guidance from a margin percentage standpoint, Q3 was no different. We were at 13%, even when you normalize this, we were at 12.5%, so slightly above what we had indicated in previous quarters.

    是的。謝謝你的提問。我想說,全年的利潤率都非常高。從利潤率的角度來看,我們幾乎總是超越我們的預期或指導,第三季也不例外。我們的成長率為 13%,即使將其正常化,我們的成長率為 12.5%,略高於前幾季的成長率。

  • I think the strength of the margin is coming from all the initiatives that we've been working on for the last few quarters. And it is largely around product costing. We spent a lot of time making sure that our products are competitive in the market from a cost standpoint that includes one theme that we've talked a lot about, which is vertical integration.

    我認為利潤率的優勢來自於我們過去幾季一直在努力實施的所有措施。這主要與產品成本有關。我們花了大量時間確保我們的產品從成本角度在市場上具有競爭力,其中包括我們經常討論的一個主題,即垂直整合。

  • We've also spent a lot of time on productivity in manufacturing, but as well in engineering, especially with AI, which has recently helped us as well to be pretty efficient on the engineering side. So if you step back and look at our margin, we'll be able to finish the year with margins that are slightly over the midpoint of our guidance. And in fact, we'll be close to $0.5 billion in EBITDA for the full year, that includes about $30 million of one-timers. We've had about 25 in the first half of the year and five, so it was lower, five in this quarter.

    我們在提高製造業生產力方面也投入了大量時間,同樣在工程方面也投入了大量時間,特別是人工智慧,它最近幫助我們在工程方面變得非常有效率。因此,如果你回顧我們的利潤率,我們今年的利潤率將能夠略高於我們預期的中點。事實上,我們全年的 EBITDA 將接近 5 億美元,其中包括約 3,000 萬美元的一次性支出。今年上半年我們大約有 25 起此類案件,本季有 5 起,因此數量較少。

  • These recoveries are generally related to, as you mentioned, lower program volumes that we've seen or various recoveries on, for example, inventories that we had in excess because of, again, a volume being lowered -- program being lower term volume. So that is kind of the main reason. So I would definitely back that out as we would go into 2026. Now equally, there's always some level of recoveries from -- in that nature as we go into any year.

    正如您所提到的,這些復甦通常與我們所看到的較低的計劃量或各種復甦有關,例如,由於數量降低而導致的庫存過剩 - 計劃是較低的期限量。這就是主要原因。因此,當我們進入 2026 年時,我肯定會放棄這個想法。同樣,隨著我們進入任何一年,總會有一定程度的復甦。

  • Sachin Lawande - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sachin Lawande - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Maybe I can help also provide more context because our exposure and to EVs is very different than many of our peers because we are essentially, for now at least, really focused on electronics. And the CapEx and other requirements for EMS is significantly different as compared to, say, a traction inverter or something that is very specific to NAV. So in the grand scheme of things, our investments and, therefore, recovery are much smaller as compared to what you might hear from some of our other competitors or peers.

    是的。也許我也可以幫忙提供更多背景信息,因為我們對電動車的了解與我們的許多同行非常不同,因為至少目前,我們基本上真正專注於電子產品。與牽引逆變器或 NAV 特定產品相比,EMS 的資本支出和其他要求有顯著差異。因此,從總體來看,我們的投資和回收規模與我們其他競爭對手或同業相比要小得多。

  • Dan Levy - Analyst

    Dan Levy - Analyst

  • Great. As a follow-up, I wanted to ask about your Toyota exposure. And I know this is a question that's come up in past calls, and I think the number is something like 10% of revenue potentially in '27 or '28, whatever that maybe?

    偉大的。作為後續問題,我想詢問一下您對豐田的了解。我知道這個問題在過去的電話會議中出現過,我認為這個數字大概是 27 年或 28 年收入的 10% 左右,不管是多少?

  • Jerome Rouquet - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Jerome Rouquet - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • '28.

    '28。

  • Dan Levy - Analyst

    Dan Levy - Analyst

  • Yeah. Maybe you could just talk about the launch cadence ahead and the line of sight and the confidence that this will ultimately start to become a dominant piece of the revenue that could offset maybe any continued mix headwinds, which may linger?

    是的。也許您可以談談未來的發布節奏和前景,以及這最終將開始成為收入的主要部分並可能抵消任何可能持續存在的混合逆風的信心?

  • Jerome Rouquet - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Jerome Rouquet - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yeah. No, I'll take that one. So you're absolutely right. We've been obviously very successful with Toyota in terms of business wins recently. And we have a pretty gradual set of launches as we go into '27, and it's going to increase, obviously, numbers as well in dollar terms.

    是的。不,我要那個。所以你完全正確。就最近與豐田的業務合作而言,我們顯然取得了非常大的成功。隨著我們進入 27 年,我們將逐步推出一系列新產品,而且顯然,以美元計算,數量也會增加。

  • So for '25, we'll launch two programs overall; in '26, 5; and then in '27, 7 programs. So that shows you a little bit the acceleration that we have as we go into '27. And that's the reason why we've been talking about 10% of our sales going into '28. So it's a fairly significant ramp based on what we've won recently. I think the good news as well with Toyota is that we keep on getting very good engagement with this customer, and there are still opportunities. So obviously, that would go beyond '28 and further, but it's been a very successful story for us.

    因此,對於 25 年,我們將總共啟動兩個專案;對於 26 年,我們將啟動 5 個專案;對於 27 年,我們將啟動 7 個專案。這稍微向你展示了我們進入 27 年時的加速情況。這就是為什麼我們一直在談論 28 年銷售額的 10% 的原因。因此,根據我們最近取得的勝利,這是一個相當顯著的成長。我認為對於豐田來說,好消息是,我們與這位客戶保持良好的合作關係,並且仍然有機會。顯然,這將超越 28 年甚至更久,但對我們來說這是一個非常成功的故事。

  • Sachin Lawande - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sachin Lawande - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • I think we need to maybe just give you more context on the opportunities even beyond this. And having said that, with these launches, 2028, we expect as we said earlier, about 10% of revenue, but these are essentially two product lines that we currently are engaged on, right? It's the cluster and displays. And we have opportunities even within those two product lines to get on other vehicles. This is still less than 50% of their vehicle platforms and models. So there's still plenty of opportunity for growth. On top of that, we are engaged with them on discussions regarding electronics, right?

    我認為我們也許需要向您提供更多有關這些機會的背景資訊。話雖如此,隨著這些產品的推出,到 2028 年,我們預計收入將達到 10% 左右,但這基本上是我們目前正在從事的兩條產品線,對嗎?它是集群和顯示器。我們甚至有機會在這兩條產品線內進入其他車輛。這仍然不到其汽車平台和車型的50%。因此,仍有大量的成長機會。除此之外,我們也與他們討論有關電子產品的問題,對嗎?

  • And given my prior comments about how we see the industry rapidly evolving to use of more and more advanced software-driven features, and AI becoming a very dominant theme or a trend, I think we are very well positioned to support this customer, this OEM in their ambitions with respect to addressing some of the gaps that they have in their portfolio. So for us, this represents much more than just the immediate the 2028 sort of horizon opportunity that we have discussed. So we will continue to explore more opportunities as we go forward.

    鑑於我之前的評論,我們看到這個行業正在快速發展,使用越來越先進的軟體驅動功能,而人工智慧正成為一個非常主導的主題或趨勢,我認為我們完全有能力支持這個客戶、這個 OEM 實現他們的目標,解決他們產品組合中的一些差距。因此,對我們來說,這不僅僅代表我們所討論的 2028 年那樣的短期機會。因此,我們將繼續探索更多的機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mark Delaney, Goldman Sachs.

    高盛的馬克·德萊尼。

  • Mark Delaney - Analyst

    Mark Delaney - Analyst

  • Thanks for the comments on the various product opportunities and your thoughts on the market environment. I'm hoping you can help better contextualize what that all means for consolidated growth in the coming years as you consider share gains with certain Asia ex-OEMs, Axia ex-China OEMs. You were working through the backlog, given the booking strength you're seeing, executing on some of these AI opportunities, but then also some of these headwinds like in BMS and customer mix. And as you put that all together, how is the company tracking relative to the $4.15 billion revenue target you previously discussed for 2027?

    感謝您對各種產品機會的評論以及對市場環境的看法。我希望您能夠更好地幫助您了解這一切對於未來幾年的綜合增長意味著什麼,因為您考慮與某些亞洲前 OEM、Axia 前中國 OEM 的份額增長。考慮到您所看到的預訂實力,您正在處理積壓工作,執行其中一些 AI 機會,但同時也遇到了一些阻力,例如 BMS 和客戶組合。綜合以上這些,您認為公司目前的發展情況與您之前討論的 2027 年 41.5 億美元的收入目標相比如何?

  • Sachin Lawande - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sachin Lawande - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Again, I think we will not necessarily specifically comment on '27. We will do that beginning of next year, primarily because we need to get a better handle on the underlying volume assumptions, as we discussed there's a lot of moving parts there. But having said that, we are making really good progress with all the initiatives that I have mentioned on this call and previously as well, starting with Toyota. As Jerome just mentioned, we have these launches.

    是的。再說一次,我認為我們不一定會具體評論‘27’。我們將在明年年初這樣做,主要是因為我們需要更好地掌握底層的數量假設,正如我們所討論的,那裡有很多活動部件。但話雖如此,我們在這次電話會議中以及之前提到的所有舉措都取得了良好的進展,首先是與豐田的合作。正如傑羅姆剛才提到的,我們有這些發布。

  • We really have to execute these launches well, which I have no reason to doubt that we would be doing anything otherwise. But the other one that I would like to highlight that also really contributes to our growth in 2027 is the launch in '26 with Honda. This is the 2-wheeler opportunity that we have previously mentioned fairly significant.

    我們確實必須很好地執行這些發布,我沒有理由懷疑我們會以其他方式做任何事情。但我想強調的另一個對我們 2027 年的成長也做出真正貢獻的是在 2026 年與本田合作推出的產品。這就是我們之前提到的相當重要的兩輪車機會。

  • And then on commercial vehicles, we have there's opportunities that are with TRATON, which is the commercial vehicle group constitutes MAN, Scandia and the sub in the US as well as Volvo trucks, which are launching in 2027. So we have, in '27, the situation where China starts to grow. We have this BMS headwind kind of just lapped at that point. So the comparison should be good.

    在商用車方面,我們有機會與 TRATON 合作,TRATON 是由 MAN、Scandia 和美國子公司以及沃爾沃卡車組成的商用車集團,將於 2027 年推出。因此,在 2027 年,中國開始發展。我們在那時就遇到了 BMS 逆風。因此比較應該是好的。

  • And then all these new launches that are kicking in. So we would expect to be in a good position, but we -- I do want to just caveat investing this volume expectations, we need to get a much better handle on, and that's what we will be focused on between now and end of the year.

    然後所有這些新產品都開始陸續推出。因此,我們預計會處於有利地位,但是我們——我確實想提醒大家,對於投資這個數量的預期,我們需要更好地掌握,這就是從現在到年底我們將要關注的重點。

  • Mark Delaney - Analyst

    Mark Delaney - Analyst

  • Helpful context. And my second question was on BMS and thanks for all the commentary and discussion you already provided there. I did want to understand profit implications for Visteon in that product area over the next couple of years. And given what you articulated around volumes in relation to what customers are now planning for their EVs, how is Visteon operating that business? And is this something that can remain profitable even if BMS sales are at low levels in '26, and maybe in '27 as well?

    有用的背景資訊。我的第二個問題是關於 BMS 的,感謝您提供的所有評論和討論。我確實想了解未來幾年偉世​​通在該產品領域的利潤影響。鑑於您所闡述的與客戶目前電動車計畫相關的銷量,偉世通是如何經營這項業務的?即使 26 年 BMS 銷量處於較低水平,甚至 27 年也一樣,這是否仍能保持盈利?

  • Jerome Rouquet - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Jerome Rouquet - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yeah, I'll take that, Mark. BMS still represents about 5% of our sales. So it's still a significant contribution in terms of product line. Margins are similar to other product lines. So there's not a major difference. Obviously, the more volume we have, the better. But it's not going to be, let's say, a mix impact that we'll see as we go forward.

    是的,我接受,馬克。BMS 仍占我們銷售額的 5% 左右。因此,就產品線而言,它仍然是一個重大貢獻。利潤率與其他產品線相似。所以沒有太大的差別。顯然,數量越多越好。但它不會是我們未來會看到的混合影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Joe Spak, UBS.

    瑞銀的喬·斯帕克。

  • Joseph Spak - Analyst

    Joseph Spak - Analyst

  • I just -- maybe just to quickly follow up off the last point because it was headed down a similar path. So that suggests BMS is like, again, you said, I think, 5%, so call it roughly $200 million. So just in terms -- so investors could get properly calibrated, like do we think like it's a couple of point headwind and is where sort of things bottom out for '26? And I know it's sort of highly fluid, but like what's your sort of preliminary thinking there? And then related to the -- another topic which came up, which is receiving payments for volume, should we expect that you receive some payments for these BMS shortfalls as well? Or have those already started?

    我只是——也許只是為了快速跟進最後一點,因為它走的是一條類似的道路。所以這表明 BMS 就像您再次說的那樣,我認為是 5%,所以稱之為大約 2 億美元。因此,就條款而言 - 以便投資者能夠得到適當的校準,例如我們是否認為這是一個幾點的逆風,以及 26 年的情況會在哪裡觸底?我知道這有點不穩定,但你對此的初步想法是什麼?然後與出現的另一個主題相關,即接收數量付款,我們是否應該期望您也收到一些針對這些 BMS 短缺的付款?或者這些已經開始了?

  • Sachin Lawande - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sachin Lawande - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. So I think maybe answer the second question first. So for the BMS shortfall, we do anticipate recoveries that, that would be either part of the product piece price or as lump sum as we go forward. Some of that has been reflected in the price already, by the way. So we will continue to monitor the volume and adjust and go back as necessary.

    是的。所以我想也許可以先回答第二個問題。因此,對於 BMS 缺口,我們確實預計可以收回成本,這要么是產品單價的一部分,要么是未來的總價。順便說一句,其中一些已經反映在價格中了。因此,我們將繼續監控音量並根據需要進行調整和恢復。

  • And so in terms of the volume itself, we're still looking at the latest information that's coming in from GM, and you have also seen what they have publicly stated. So we believe that it's probably somewhere between 10% to 15% or maybe even up to 20% down sequentially. So we'll have to see whether it recovers in the second half, but in the first half, we do expect to see a drop.

    因此,就交易量本身而言,我們仍在關注通用汽車發布的最新信息,您也已經看到了他們公開聲明的內容。因此我們認為,環比下降幅度可能在 10% 到 15% 之間,甚至可能高達 20%。因此,我們必須看看它是否會在下半年復甦,但在上半年,我們確實預計會下降。

  • And then it will depend on how the underlying demand really holds, right? Because we will be in an environment where for the first time, there are no incentives to drive the behavior. I mean, at the same time, we all know that OEMs will continue to offer their own, but to what extent is yet to be seen. So our expectation in what we would tend to model would be somewhere around 20% to be a little conservative.

    然後這將取決於潛在需求的實際狀況,對嗎?因為我們將第一次處於一個沒有動機來驅動行為的環境。我的意思是,同時,我們都知道 OEM 將繼續提供自己的產品,但具體到什麼程度還有待觀察。因此,我們對所要建模的預期大約是 20% 左右,這有點保守。

  • Joseph Spak - Analyst

    Joseph Spak - Analyst

  • 20% down in '26 versus '25.

    26 年比 25 年下降了 20%。

  • Sachin Lawande - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sachin Lawande - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Correct, correct.

    正確,正確。

  • Joseph Spak - Analyst

    Joseph Spak - Analyst

  • Okay. And then, Sachin, the second question, a little bit bigger picture, but I recently saw you posted about, I think, what you called the intelligence era versus sort of the software era. And I'm just curious to get your thoughts about how your customers are thinking about AI, maybe by region and how Visteon is positioning themselves for that to benefit? And what type of time frame are we really talking about here? Because some of your customers have to put it bluntly, history been fairly slow to adopt some of these technology changes.

    好的。然後,Sachin,第二個問題,稍微大一點,但我最近看到你發布了關於你所謂的智能時代與軟體時代的文章。我只是好奇地想知道您對客戶如何看待人工智慧的看法,也許是按地區劃分,以及偉世通如何定位自己以從中受益?我們在這裡真正在談論的是哪種時間框架?因為您的一些客戶必須直言不諱,歷史上採用這些技術變革的速度相當緩慢。

  • Sachin Lawande - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sachin Lawande - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And you are starting to see this really kind of become more distinct when you look at China and then the rest. So the way we see, and we are already very deeply engaged with the Chinese is that AI is coming in, in two ways, right? So end-to-end ADAS are AI-driven. Today, most of the ADAS uses AI, but it's not end-to-end AI. So that's one big change.

    當你觀察中國和其他國家時,你會發現這種情況變得更加明顯。因此,我們看到,並且我們已經與中國人進行了非常深入的接觸,人工智慧正在以兩種方式進入中國,對嗎?因此端對端 ADAS 是由 AI 驅動的。如今,大多數ADAS都使用了AI,但並不是端到端的AI。這是一個很大的改變。

  • The second is AI as a smart assistant for the cockpit. That's the one that we are initially more focused on, and the two wins that we have talked about, one with Zeekr, the other is now with Cherry are for this SmartCore HPC that will bring this AI-based smart assistant for the cockpit. And if you may remember, we talked about our cognitoAI. It was also featured in our CES earlier this year, is the first framework, software framework of its kind that enables you to run AI -- Gen AI models in the car, not in the cloud. And you see many references today to having whether it is Gemini, Google, Gemini AI or something else, but these are essentially cloud applications that limit how extensive that AI-driven functionality can be offered.

    第二是AI作為駕駛艙的智慧助理。這是我們最初更加關注的,我們談到的兩場勝利,一次是與 Zeekr 的勝利,另一次是與 Cherry 的勝利,都是為了這款 SmartCore HPC,它將為駕駛艙帶來基於 AI 的智能助手。如果您還記得的話,我們討論過我們的 cognitoAI。它還在今年稍早的 CES 上亮相,是第一個此類框架、軟體框架,可讓您在汽車中而不是在雲端運行 AI——Gen AI 模型。今天你會看到很多關於 Gemini、Google、Gemini AI 或其他東西的提及,但這些本質上都是雲端應用程序,限制了 AI 驅動功能的提供範圍。

  • But in China, we see that already happening. In fact, the two launches that I mentioned earlier, next year will feature these AI models, probably from DeepSeek initially. And then on the -- with respect to the rest of the regions, we are seeing a lot of interest in Europe, as you can imagine. But for Europe, the difference that we're seeing is sort of redoing the whole cockpit system to be able to be built on top of AI, they're thinking of AI as an accelerator.

    但在中國,我們看到這種情況已經發生。事實上,我之前提到的兩款產品明年都會推出這些 AI 模型,最初可能來自 DeepSeek。然後,就其他地區而言,正如您所想像的,我們看到人們對歐洲有很大興趣。但對歐洲來說,我們看到的不同之處在於重新設計整個駕駛艙系統,以便能夠建立在人工智慧之上,他們將人工智慧視為加速器。

  • So imagine an ECU that you bring in with minimal changes to existing cockpit domain controllers, that would enable them to offer some level of AI-enabled features. So it's not as expensive as what the Chinese would be able to offer, but it is still better than nothing.

    因此,想像一下,您只需對現有的駕駛艙域控制器進行最小程度的改動,就可以引入一個 ECU,使它們能夠提供一定程度的 AI 功能。因此,它不像中國所能提供的那麼昂貴,但總比沒有好。

  • And that is seen as a stepping stone towards a full-blown AI-driven cockpit. So we are really focused on both those opportunities. One minor thing that is still very relevant that I would like to highlight, it's interesting to note that when you look at the entire cockpit and what the programs in China are doing, they tend to use Qualcomm silicon. But for the AI box as an accelerator that tends to be more NVIDIA. And so we are in the process of really developing solutions for both those architectures, which is kind of unique. I do not expect much activity in that regard from all competitors, especially outside of China, and that should position us well to take advantage of this emerging trend.

    這被視為邁向全面人工智慧駕駛艙的墊腳石。所以我們確實關注這兩個機會。我想強調的一件仍然非常重要的小事是,有趣的是,當你查看整個駕駛艙以及中國正在進行的專案時,他們傾向於使用高通晶片。但對於作為加速器的 AI 盒來說,NVIDIA 更傾向使用。因此,我們正在為這兩種架構開發解決方案,這是一種獨特的方式。我並不期望所有競爭對手在這方面採取太多行動,尤其是中國以外的競爭對手,這應該使我們能夠很好地利用這一新興趨勢。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Colin Langan, Wells Fargo.

    富國銀行的科林·蘭根。

  • Colin Langan - Analyst

    Colin Langan - Analyst

  • Just to follow up, trying to get all the puts and takes on the -- some of the commentary going forward. I mean if I think about you mentioned sort of battery management will be a drag into next year. It sounds like that could be about 1 point. I assume that there's good news from the reversal of maybe some of the volumes from JLR and the aluminum disruption, any way to frame maybe the 2-wheeler and commercial market help, and I guess the biggest factor as we look year-over-year, you commented that China will turn positive. Is that going to be the biggest sort of help to improving growth over market as that reverses? And any way to frame what kind of drag that was to this year's growth?

    只是為了跟進,嘗試獲得所有關於未來的評論。我的意思是,如果我考慮到你提到的電池管理將會拖累明年的發展。聽起來大概是 1 分。我認為捷豹路虎銷售和鋁供應中斷可能帶來一些好消息,任何可能對兩輪車和商用市場有所幫助的因素,我想從同比來看,最大的因素是,您評論說中國市場將轉為積極。當這種逆轉發生時,這是否會對改善市場成長提供最大的幫助?有什麼方法可以說明這對今年的成長造成了什麼樣的阻礙?

  • Sachin Lawande - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Sachin Lawande - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. So the two big tailwinds we face next year; one is China, obviously; the other launches, by the way, in the rest of the markets, primarily commercial vehicles and 2-wheelers. So these are kind of net new programs that we will be introducing. So in terms of the growth of our market, we expect China to be positive, and we expect rest of the market to also be positive as a result.

    是的。因此,明年我們將面臨兩大順風:一個顯然是中國;另一個順風是在其他市場推出的產品,主要是商用車和兩輪車。這些是我們將要推出的全新項目。因此,就我們市場的成長而言,我們預期中國市場將呈現正面態勢,我們預期其他市場也將呈現正面態勢。

  • Jerome Rouquet - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Jerome Rouquet - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • And in terms of headwinds this year that will reverse into next year, largely because of JLR and nonetheless, we've assumed so far in this year, a revised outlook $30 million to $40 million of impact. So you would expect that to be a positive as we go into next year.

    就今年的逆風而言,這種逆風將在明年逆轉,這主要是因為捷豹路虎,儘管如此,我們今年迄今的預測是,修正後的影響金額為 3000 萬至 4000 萬美元。因此,你會期望這對我們進入明年來說是一個積極的信號。

  • Colin Langan - Analyst

    Colin Langan - Analyst

  • And how bad has the China drag been on this year's growth though?

    那麼,中國對今年經濟成長的拖累到底有多嚴重?

  • Jerome Rouquet - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Jerome Rouquet - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • We generally are estimating that it's about a 5 percentage-point impact. So again, it highlights the fact that excluding China and I would say as well, excluding BMS, our cockpit business has been pretty strong in -- mostly in Europe and the Americas.

    我們通常估計其影響約為 5 個百分點。因此,這再次凸顯了一個事實,即除中國外,我想說,除了 BMS 外,我們的駕駛艙業務一直非常強勁——主要在歐洲和美洲。

  • Colin Langan - Analyst

    Colin Langan - Analyst

  • Got it. That's very helpful. And then as we think about margins into 2026, you did note that the $30 million of recoveries is high. What is the normal level that we should be thinking about? Is that -- is half of that normal? And then what other drivers outside of the higher volume? Or is it really margin expansion is going to be volume driven, or are there any other cost cutting that we should be thinking about into next year?

    知道了。這非常有幫助。然後,當我們考慮 2026 年的利潤率時,您確實注意到 3000 萬美元的回收金額很高。我們應該考慮的正常水平是多少?這是──一半是正常的嗎?那麼除了更高的音量之外還有哪些驅動因素呢?或者利潤率的擴大真的會受到銷售的驅動,或者我們明年應該考慮其他成本削減措施?

  • Jerome Rouquet - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Jerome Rouquet - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yeah. So in terms of the -- your first question, I would say half of that is probably a normal run rate. And it's generally balanced with potentially negative one-timers as well that we may have. But I would say 50% is probably a good ballpark number. In terms of margin drivers, so we've constantly improved margins as we move forward, even with volumes that were slightly down year over year.

    是的。因此,就您的第一個問題而言,我想說其中的一半可能是正常的運行率。而且它通常與我們可能遇到的潛在負面一次性事件保持平衡。但我想說 50% 可能是個不錯的大概數字。就利潤驅動因素而言,儘管銷量比去年同期略有下降,但我們在前進的過程中不斷提高利潤率。

  • So we'll continue to do so. I think some of my previous comments in terms of why we've achieved good margins in '25 will still be valid as we go into '26. So volume is definitely going to help, but it's our cost. It's our constant focus on productivity, being engineering, manufacturing as well as product costing. And we will start to see pretty significant positive as well as we go into '26, but as well '27 from vertical integration as we are accelerating these initiatives.

    因此我們會繼續這樣做。我認為,我之前關於我們為什麼在 25 年取得良好利潤率的一些評論在進入 26 年時仍然有效。因此數量肯定會有幫助,但這會影響我們的成本。我們始終關註生產力、工程、製造以及產品成本。隨著我們加速這些舉措,我們將在 2026 年和 2027 年看到垂直整合帶來的顯著正面影響。

  • Kris Doyle - Vice President of Investor Relations and FP&A

    Kris Doyle - Vice President of Investor Relations and FP&A

  • Thanks for participating in today's call. I'd like to quickly point your attention to slide 24, in which we highlight several investor relations activities for the fourth quarter. If you are interested in learning more, please contact our investor relations team. Thank you.

    感謝您參加今天的電話會議。我想快速提請您注意第 24 張投影片,其中我們重點介紹了第四季度的幾項投資者關係活動。如果您有興趣了解更多信息,請聯繫我們的投資者關係團隊。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes Visteon's third quarter 2025 results earnings call. You may now disconnect.

    偉世通 2025 年第三季業績電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。