Valneva SE (VALN) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and thank you for joining us to discuss Valneva's first-quarter 2024 results and corporate update. It's my pleasure to welcome you today. In addition to our press release and analyst presentation, you can find our consolidated financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2024, which were published earlier today, available within the Financial Reports section on our Investor website.

I'm joined today by Valneva's CEO, Thomas Lingelbach; and CFO, Peter Bühler, who will provide an overview and update on our business as well as our key financial results for the first quarter. There will be an analyst Q&A session at the conclusion of the prepared remarks.

Before we begin, I'd like to remind listeners that during this presentation, we will be making forward-looking statements, which are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. You can find additional information about these risks and uncertainties in our periodic filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and with the French market authority, which are also listed on our company website.

Please note that today's presentation includes information provided as of today, May 7, 2024, and Valneva undertakes no obligation to revise or update forward-looking statements except as required by applicable securities laws. With that, it's my pleasure to introduce Thomas to begin today's presentation.

Thank you so much, Josh, and good day, everyone, and welcome to this call on our first-quarter key financial results and business update. We had a solid start into 2024, and I'm pleased to present some of our key highlights. We made tremendous progress on the pipeline, of course, chikungunya. We got the favorable ACIP recommendation, CDC adoption. And we see now first commercial revenues kicking in, and I will provide more updates on that.

On Lyme disease, the Phase 3 study, Valneva is progressing according to plan, and we expect the completion of all primary vaccinations very soon. We started, as anticipated, the Zika virus vaccine program, advanced the new second generation candidate into Phase 1, which is another key milestone on our R&D pipeline.

With regards to the financials, Peter, of course, will give us an update on the full financial report. But of course, we got the PRV net proceeds in. We reported a quarter-one net profit of close to EUR60 million and more than EUR175 million in cash.

The product sales of EUR32.1 million are in line with our internal plans, and hence, we have reiterated our full-year guidance. We significantly extended the cash runway with the recent update to the debt financing agreement. And we have reiterated and are reiterating our strong midterm financial outlook.

We believe that this company is solidly funded with significantly lower expected cash burn going forward, especially, since we expect to complete our payments to Pfizer very soon. Our operational business is considered sufficiently funded, of course, as we said in the past, excluding debt repayment until the Lyme commercial revenues are expected to enable sustained profitability.

By way of reminder, we discussed a lot about our strategy. But on page 6 of the presentation, you see, again the three silos, the pillars, how we call them, that underpin our strategy to become a globally recognized vaccine company, on the one hand side, driving commercial growth. Here, we are going to capitalize on our existing commercial business now augmented with our new vaccine IXCHIQ, and we expect to unlock the value of this first and own chikungunya vaccine on the market by building awareness, building markets, expanding global reach. And all of that will enable the commercial business to turn cash flow positive already from 2025 onward.

The second pillar, to capture R&D upside. We would like to continue investing in new vaccines that address high unmet medical needs, leveraging our proven R&D engine and strategic partnerships, and focus on vaccines that make a difference as the first, only, best-in-class. Our key expectation is that we will have another asset ready to enter Phase 3 post successful Lyme readout of its Phase 3.

So overall, the third pillar, the maximization of our integrated business model. We believe in what some people call this hybrid model; building continuous value from R&D and commercial execution; support, of course, to timely Lyme approvals; and achieve sustained profitability with potential Lyme commercial revenues from partner, Pfizer.

When we look at chikungunya, we are very proud that we managed this third vaccine in the company's history from bench towards successful licensure is the world's first and only chikungunya vaccine right now. And it is clearly a differentiated vaccine. We expect to benefit by being first to market with a potentially best-in-class vaccine here.

We believe we have a differentiated and competitive product characterized by a strong and durable immunological response following a single injection. And we see no difference in the immunogenicity profile between younger and older adults. The vaccine has been generally well tolerated among the more than 3,500 adults and more than 700 adolescents evaluated for safety thus far.

Looking a little bit at the timeline on the launch activities right now shown on page 9 of the presentation. We basically started by building HCP awareness and stock distributor channels. This is something that we have been working on for a while. We then got the ACIP approval and the CDC's acceptance.

We ensure now that the customers are building respective stock, and we built payor coverage. Then coming soon, we expect to activate because consumers and to engage with military. In terms of next steps, we are supporting our customers who are already actively protecting travelers. We activate consumers to seek travel health consults, and we ensure military officials understand the risk, impact, and threat levels associated with chikungunya. We will, of course, continuously monitor the outbreaks and threat levels, given that we are talking about an outbreak disease here, and we want to make sure that we are ready in case of outbreaks coming up and adjust our plans accordingly.

In terms of regulatory approvals, page 10 of the presentation, we started with the US. Canada and Europe are well on track, and we expect review completions and, possibly, positive opinions mid of 2024. The Brazil filing for IXCHIQ is ongoing, and this could be the first potential life insurer in a chikungunya-endemic country still this year. While in parallel, we are transferring the process in order to enable also a locally produced product, which we call VLA1555 to get licensed in Brazil. We will then continue with additional LATAM and LMIC countries and also other markets where we target countries with established travelers or endemic markets.

In terms of additional studies and additional activities, you all know that IXCHIQ is FDA approved for adults under the accelerated approval pathway, but we have a very robust clinical program to support continued approval, label extensions, and updated product profile. We talked a lot about the post-marketing effectiveness Phase 4 with the observation of effectiveness study in participants about 12 years of age in Brazil and the pragmatic randomized controlled effectiveness and safety study in adults in endemic countries where we expect around 20,000 people to participate. This will start at the end of this year, very, very early next year. All preparation activities are well underway.

In terms of label expansion, we have two very important studies ongoing. First of all, the study in adolescents, VLA1553*, which is a randomized controlled study in adolescents * below 18 years of, age. We reported positive initial results. The six month follow-up data are imminent. And on the basis of that, we will file for label extension to allow this vaccine to be also then approved for everyone about 12 years of age.

In parallel, we have initiated the Phase 2 study in children, 1 to 11 years of age, well under way, more than half of it reported. And here, same thing, we will gradually, over time, expand and extend the profile. And then of course, we are talking about a vaccine with a unique profile in terms of durability of protection. And hence, we will continue monitoring the antibody persistence. And we expect later this year, the 36 months' time point, just by way of reminder, we expect this vaccine, after a single shot, to protect for at least five years if not longer. And we will monitor for five years.

And there is also study in immunocompromised adults starting very soon. And as part of the Phase 3 profile, we will also address this famous topic about early onset of immunity. When we turn over to the Lyme vaccine, VLA15 partnered with Pfizer, I don't need to repeat again all the key features of this vaccine.

But just by way of reminder, it is the world's leading vaccine candidate against Lyme disease, the only program in advanced clinical development. It is a multivalent recombinant protein-based vaccine, targeting the six most prevalent serotypes in the Northern Hemisphere. And it's working based on an established mode of action.

In terms of next steps, study VALOR, which is our Phase 3 efficacy study, we expect full completion of the primary vaccination series. So on slide 14, this would mean both cohorts, cohort one as well as cohort two primary vaccination completed. Then cohort one booster completion. And then everything geared up towards readout at the end of the peak season 2025, so towards the latter part of next year. So everything is working well, and we are very much excited about this program and the potential to really deliver on a vaccine solution that can make a change to people's life.

Talking about Zika, page 16 of the presentation, you remember that this is an optimized second-generation vaccine candidate. This is currently the only active one against Zika. And it is leveraging a platform that we originally developed for CRO, then further optimized for VLA2001. The company's inactivated whole-virus COVID candidate or COVID vaccine. And so it is designed for large volume, excellent tolerability safety profile, and potentially with two (inaudible) addressing also a very broad and durable protection profile.

We are currently looking at market opportunities. We are looking at funding opportunities. And we are watching and monitoring the epidemiological development in the world quite carefully given that we see currently a lot of signs for Zika coming back, and we will decide, of course, on next development steps later this year or early next year as we are going into the respective data readout points.

Of course, we have a very significant number of exciting preclinical things ongoing. And we expect, as we announced earlier, to provide more pipeline updates over December. And with this, general update on our R&D and launch activities around IXCHIQ. I would like to hand over to Peter to provide us with the financial report.

Thank you, Thomas. Good morning and good afternoon to all of you. Now let's look at the financial review for the first quarter of fiscal year 2024. Product sales reached EUR32.1 million and remained stable compared to the first quarter of the prior year. IXIARO sales reached EUR16.6 million, 4% below last year. The downside was related to supply constraints that are now resolved.

DUKORAL sales grew double digit and reached EUR11.3 million compared to EUR10.2 million in the first quarter of last year. The increase in DUKORAL sales is primarily driven by the continued recovery in the private travel market. IXCHIQ sales in the United States reached EUR200,000. And as a reminder, at the beginning of March, the US Center of Disease Control and Prevention, CDC, accepted the ACIP recommendation for IXCHIQ.

Third-party products decreased by 8.9% to EUR4.1 million compared to EUR4.5 million in the first quarter of last year. The decrease is a result of anticipated supply constraints of one of our commercial partners. As mentioned during our full year 2023 earnings call, we expect third party product sales to decrease over time with a positive impact on the company's gross margin. Foreign currency had no impact on the year-over-year sales performance.

Now moving on to the income statement, total revenues reached EUR32.8 million versus EUR33.5 million in the first three months of 2023. The small decrease in other revenues is related to lower revenues recognized on R&D collaborations.

Looking at expenses, we observe an increase in cost of goods and services versus prior year of around EUR1.7 million or 8%. The increase in cost of goods is primarily driven by a write off of failed IXIARO batches. With this write offs, IXIARO gross margin reached to 62% compared to 58.7% in the prior year's first quarter. DUKORAL gross margins broadly in line with prior year.

Research and development expenses decreased by EUR1 million to EUR13.1 million in the first quarter of fiscal year 2024. In the first quarter of last year, we reported higher R&D costs related to our COVID-19 vaccine. Also IXCHIQ related R&D cost decreased following US license during the fourth quarter of 2023. These savings were, to some extent, offset by expenses related to the ongoing tech transfer to our new Alameda manufacturing unit in Scotland.

Marketing and distribution expenses in the first quarter reached EUR11.3 million compared to EUR9 million in the first quarter of last year. This increase is due to higher spend in our US commercial organization and particularly to the launch of our chikungunya vaccine, IXCHIQ.

G&A cost increased by EUR1.6 million to reach EUR11.7 million in the first quarter of 2024. The increase is driven by higher recruiting cost, increased cost for share-based compensation and expenses related to digitalization and automation.

In the first quarter of 2024, we sold the priority review voucher obtained upon approval of our chikungunya vaccine, IXCHIQ, in the United States. This resulted in a net revenue of EUR90.8 million after deduction of all transaction costs and amounts owed to third parties. The operating result of the first quarter is reported at EUR67.2 million compared to an operating loss of minus EUR16.6 million in the first quarter of the prior year. The significant improvement of our operating result is, of course, driven by the sale of the PRV.

Net finance and income tax expenses reported at minus EUR9.3 million compared to expense of EUR1.6 million in the prior year. The higher cost is related to foreign exchange losses of EUR2.5 million, while in the prior year, we recorded an FX profit of EUR3.2 million.

Interest expenses increased by roughly EUR2 million, driven by the increased demand of the loan facility. With this, profit for the first quarter of fiscal year 2024 reached EUR57.9 million (sic – see slide 19, "58.9 million") compared to a loss of EUR18.1 million in the prior year.

Now moving to slide 20 to review our guidance for the fiscal year, we reiterate our product sales guidance of EUR160 million and EUR180 million for the fiscal year 2024, with a target to double this level of sales by 2026-'27. Other elements of our guidance, as illustrated on slide 21, includes total revenues of EUR170 million to EUR190 million and other income of EUR100 million to EUR110 million, driven by the sale of the PRV reported in the first quarter.

We also reiterate our midterm guidance issued during the full year 2023 earnings call. In particular, we expect IXCHIQ sales to exceed EUR100 million in the year three of launch. This concludes the final section of this call, and I would like to hand back to Thomas for the upcoming catalysts.

Thank you so much, Peter. Yeah, so we go straight into the reiterated midterm outlook that Peter mentioned earlier. So with regard to total product sales revenues, other income and the fact that we really expect sales to double over the coming years and basically drive the company on the back of Lyme toward sustained profitability.

When we look at our catalysts and key news flow coming up in the short term, chikungunya vaccine activities, that I mentioned earlier, include the upcoming approvals with the European Medicines Agency, and Health Canada, and Anvisa, all of that expected this year. Then the initiation of the Phase 3 in immunocompromised individuals, that we expect also to start in the first half this year.

I mentioned the six months safety follow-up period on the adolescent study and right after the -- therefore, the submission for label extension activities and the Phase 4 clinical program to start at the end of this year, very early next year.

Online, we have a whole bunch of key execution milestones coming up, and they all relate to the VALOR study but also important. We expect that it to your antibody persistence data and booster results. It would be very interesting set of data because it will show how the immune profile will look like after the first booster. So whether a vaccination against Lyme disease may be needed on an annual basis or whether there could be a longer vaccination schedule up following initial booster.

Additional newsflows include, of course, new US Department of Defense supply contract for IXIARO in the second half of this year and a further advancement of our R&D pipeline. With that, I would like to conclude this presentation and hand back to the operator to take your questions.

(Operator Instructions) Max Herrmann, Stifel.

Great. Thanks very much for taking my questions. Three, if I may. So firstly, just on IXCHIQ launch metrics that you're measuring. Obviously, the first quarter sales were not really expected to be significant. But I just wonder, if you are seeing -- what you're seeing in terms of maybe responsiveness from both clinicians and also from potentially what wholesalers might be taking in inventory and how that might work?

Second question is obviously on IXIARO and the batch issues that you have. Obviously, I don't remember this being commented on in your full-year results. And so I'm just wondering when it happened? Has it led to any customers or clinics not being able to receive IXIARO. So wanted to know where it is in the supply chain? Has it impacted the supply chain or whether there's a catch-up period available?

And then finally, just in terms of future pipeline. I think you talked about bringing a further Phase 3 program once the VLA15 program completed. I know you talked previously about an R&D day perhaps at the end of this year to go through. I wondered what your thoughts were with that in mind and your MPV program with what you're seeing with AstraZeneca and Icosavax within RSV-MPV program. So those were three questions. Thank you.

Hi, Max. I count it four by the way. Let me start off -- maybe I'll start off with IXIARO. We had last year quite a bumpy restart of IXIARO manufacturing, right? Team has not produced IXIARO for almost two years. We switched back from COVID manufacturing into IXIARO. And so we had quite, I would say, a number of patches that basically did not successfully complete.

Some of them were recognized accounting wise in the full year financials. Some dragged on into the quarter one. We had a reported shortage, so there were some markets not receiving the anticipated and the full demand. No product that was ever in the market was affected by any issues.

Now, we are back on full supply. And we have enough products successfully manufactured and in the supply chain so that we have been able to reiterate our guidance for the full year. So everything that we are seeing on total product sales, now for the first quarter is in line with our internal planning. And therefore, we are very confident that everything will work out.

When it comes to IXCHIQ, yeah, well, we got CDC adoption, a bit more than six weeks ago. So of course, the first quarter is not a representative quarter in terms of what's going to happen. But what we are tracking in terms of launch performance is a combination metrics that help us inside an understanding as to launch success.

And there were a couple of points that includes -- that we monitor. We include, of course, the wholesaler and distributor stocking. So we have a set of wholesalers and distributors with whom we are working on IXIARO for a long time. And right now, we know that 100% of our wholesalers and distributors are stocked.

Of course, then we are looking also at stocking at our most important customer accounts. And we have -- like everyone, we have Tier 1, Tier 2 accounts and so on. And here we are close to 100% stocked.

Then the next metric that we are currently monitoring is the reordering, write-off product basically being used and then be ordered. And actually for us, the medical part is equally important, and this means coverage.

It's all about awareness. This is a brand new disease. It's a brand-new product. So we need to make sure that there's enough coverage for IXCHIQ. And we have seen that this is drastically increasing right now. And we are very pleased with our US commercial team and medical teams that are really building on all of that.

And so these are the key parameters that we are monitoring. And yesah, we hope that with the next earnings, we will be able to report already a little bit about real consumption in the market and what's going to happen in terms of people actually getting IXCHIQ in their arms.

And when we talk a little bit about the pipeline, yeah, so basically, you mentioned a couple of points. Nothing has changed on the company's R&D pipeline strategy. Just to recap, we have a very significant number of promising candidates in our preclinical pipeline.

However, we have stated in the past that we are looking to augment the pipeline with a clinical-stage asset, either alone or in co-development. And we have said that this is an objective that we have given ourselves for the first half of this year. So now I would say over the summer, we still hope that we will be able to augment the pipeline, while at the same time, accelerating some of the activities that we are doing in preclinical.

All of that will exactly leads to what you mentioned earlier, Max, namely a program to enter Phase 3. By the time, hopefully Lyme would have successfully completed Phase 3. On HMPV, specifically, we have stated already last year that we don't see an advantage of moving HMPV's standalone into the clinic. Also, it would be ready for it.

We have put this assets into the market. There is a very, very limited number of parties that could benefit from RSV-hMPV combo. And we are still in the process of actually marketing that asset, but it's too early to talk about, here a potential opportunity. And I hope with that, I have been able to address your questions.

Yeah. Maybe just a quick follow-up on IXIARO. I think there was a mention of movement in Scotland from the manufacturing. I don't know whether that was the new facility that you have constructed. So just -- weather any of the batch issues related to what's been going on and maybe you could describe a little bit better what's been going on in terms of the facility there?

Yeah. So basically, we announced that we would use the new facility in the future for IXCHIQ and IXIARO. But the tech transfer into the new facility is something that will happen during this year. Nothing that you have seen with regards to the batch ride of last year or very early this year had to do with design activities because this is something that we would do quietly over the course of this year. And then consolidate all activities on site, which will have a very interesting and favorable impact on (inaudible)

Okay. I'll jump back in the queue. Thank you.

Thank you.

Rajan Sharma, Goldman Sachs.

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. A couple. So firstly, just on IXIARO. So now that you'll back at full supply capacity and following the weakness in Q1, do you expect a catch-up in revenues in Q2 now that you have capacity back online?

And then on IXCHIQ, could you just help us understand the -- that's in the process to the military engagements? And do you think that there's a potential that you could close a deal or potentially, at least, engage with military customers before your competitor is potentially approved in the first half of next year?

And then a second one on IXCHIQ, was just -- if you could discuss the strategy to activate consumers that you've talked about. Is this an area that there could be a potential DTC campaign or does the commercial opportunity not justify that.

Yes, Rajan. So let me start off with IXIARO. We believe that IXIARO will -- IXIARO sales will essentially grow as compared to last year. And this will include. also, a sort of catch-up in as you call it. Of course, lost travelers are lost travelers. But we expect a significant growth as compared to last year in terms of total product sales for IXIARO this year. As such, there will be certainty on a very significant uptake to be seen for IXIARO later in quarter two, three and four.

Yes, we managed military engagement for IXCHIQ. And we are in very active discussions with military. And we hope that we will be able to get IXCHIQ, in a way, onto the radar screen. And for the Department of Defense, there's significant need for it.

We have also seen some small outbreaks that could be of relevance for DoD. And as such, we are positive about DoD's engagement in this regards. And DTC is, yeah, it may well be, but only with defined media. And we are currently working on it. I hope this helps clarifying your question.

No, that's very helpful. Thank you.

More than welcome, Rajan.

Evan Wang, Guggenheim Securities.

With IXCHIQ, can you provide any detail in terms of launch stock dynamics that we are seeking? I know you said, wholesale this year, that's 100% stocked now. So any colour, that would be helpful. And second, with Lyme, you're expecting to report some of the peer antibody positions. What are you looking for there and how (inaudible), anything about market opportunity. Thanks.

So the line was not great. But I'll try to focus. I'll start with the latter part of your question first. I think you were talking about antibody persistence for chikungunya. Correct? Am I right?

Hey, can you hear me better now?

Yeah. So you were talking antibody persistence for chikungunya, correct?

No, for the Lyme program, the you are going to (inaudible)

Okay. Good. So sorry for that. Yeah. So basically, remember, the antibody persistence for Lyme program. We have a cohort from the original Phase 2 study. This cohort got the three doses priming. It's a cohort from the study 221 of Lyme disease state because basically then the booster shot after one year. This booster shot resulted in a very, very good analystic response. So basically, the immune response was by a factor of three to four higher than the one after priming.

Now, we are monitoring this cohort one year later. So basically, we got to see how does it compare against the immune response we got after priming originally. And this may result in a situation where we say, well, probably, after two years you don't need a booster. But this is something that we need to take a closer look at and need to see what we actually can interpret out of the results to come.

But certainly, very interesting data package to come later this year. Yeah, when it comes to IXCHIQ, we cannot currently report on number of doses or what we have really put into the channel that would not be appropriate at this stage but what we can say is that all of our key wholesalers and distributors do have IXCHIQ available for sale. And it's the most important thing right now.

Samir Devani, RX Securities.

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Just got a couple. Just in terms of Brazil, if you seek licensure there this year, can you just explain, will that mean that you will supply product from here? Or will you wait for the tech transfer to complete before product is supplied? That's question one.

And then maybe just another question on COGS for Peter. I'm just trying to understand, I think you booked things like EUR2.4 million COGS for services, but services is only EUR600,000 in revenue and also idle capacity costs of EUR1 million. Can you just explain why that hasn't been allocated to one of the products?Thanks very much.

Samir, so I'll take the first one. Yes, it means exactly what you just said, namely we would supply product manufactured in Europe to Brazil, most likely into the private market but possibly also by way of public business. And we will certainly also use our product in a private vaccination campaign that will address also the -- some of the Phase 4 requirements. With that, I would like to hand over to Peter. Peter, you want to take the question, please?

Yeah. Thanks, Thomas and hey, Samir. So on the COGS, the cost of services, so this is basically the -- our contribution, our people contribute to the Lyme trial. We report this at the cost of services. We'll receive a contribution of course from Pfizer, which we don't recognize revenues right now. We put it on the balance sheet, and we expect to recognize this revenue later down the road.

On the idle capacity, that's basically relates to the Alameda site, as we said earlier on. So we are in the process of tech transferring the products over there. But we don't produce yet, which is why we don't allocate it on the product.

Okay. Maybe just then to follow-up on that. Does that mean that those idle capacity cost, we should expect them to recur over the coming quarters? Then and also on the -- yeah, okay. And then, in terms of Brazil, how does that work in relation to the (inaudible) deal? Would you still be just receiving a royalty on sales to Brazil? Or was that -- it would that be separate until they are manufacturing product themselves?

Peter.

So on Brazil, if it's product that are sold by Butantan, we would get a royalty irrespective of who manufactured it. So we would --

Right. Okay. Understood. Okay. Thanks very much.

You're welcome.

Ed White, H.C. Wainwright.

Hi, thanks for taking my question. Just a follow up to a prior question, COGS. There's so many moving parts here, as you mentioned, the new facility in Scotland and the lowering of the third party sales. You had said in the presentation that in the midterm outlook, you expect gross margin improvement. Can you discuss what you expect to see in 2024?

Yeah, hey, Ed to this -- yeah, thanks for the question. And I agree with you, there are a lot of moving parts. As we said, we expect cost to improve in the midterm. We actually do think we will see an improvement in 2024, but we have not guided on cost of goods or of specific expense items, which is why also, of course, I cannot give you a concrete number today but we do expect to see the improvement here clearly.

Okay. Thanks, Peter.

Suzanne van Voorthuizen, Van Lanschot, Kempen.

Hi there, and this is Suzanne from Kempen. Thanks for taking my questions. I have one on your midterm outlook, which was reiterated. Can you clarify whether the cash flow positivity from 2025, was this purely on IXIARO, DUKORAL, and IXCHIQ and maybe some third party sales? Or should we also consider other potential income streams in there suggests potential milestones from Pfizer online?

And my second question is for the Phase 1 Zika program, can you remind us what the difference between the first and second generation candidate was and help us understand what would you like to see in Phase 1 data immunogenicity wise. Whether this is vaccines where you would also expect over 90% seroconversion or whether the target is lower, any considerations?

Hi, Suzanne. I suggest that I'll let Peter answer the midterm outlook financial questions. But I'll start with Zika first. So what is the difference between first and second generation. Our cash generation was basically the Zika candidate that we just put on the IXIARO process, which is a small-scale, single adjuvantation, cell-culture based inactivated whole virus process. We then changed this process to allow for large volume production for COVID. So still cell culture based, but large scale production at low cost of goods or lower cost of goods.

And we introduced double adjuvantation, which means, not only the antigen absorb to aluminum hydroxide, but also combined with an additional T-cell adjuvant. This has given us, in COVID, superiority against even vectors, and we believe that longevity of the immune response, which has shown to be a challenge for Zika vaccines in the past and will be addressed.

And secondly, we will hopefully reach immunologic implant tool, which we did not achieve or not see in the first Phase 1 study pre-COVID. And so basically, that's what we want to do with the Zika candidate. Yes, zero conversion, definitely above 90% would be for us be an important feature. With that, I hand over to Peter to answer your question on the cash flow post positivity?

Yeah. Hi, Suzanne. So regarding the cash flow positivity from 2025, it's really on our commercial business, including IXCHIQ. So what we're saying is basically, our full commercial business will be cash flow positive from 2025, and that it will it excludes Lyme. We do not expect any revenue flows in 2025 from Lyme. The next revenue flows we expect from Pfizer is actually upon first commercial sales of Lyme, which would be in early 2027%.

Perfect. Thank you very much.

Maury Raycroft, Jefferies.

Hi. Can you hear me now?

Yes, loud and clear, Maury.

Okay. Thanks for taking my question and apologies for the technical difficulty earlier. I'll just ask two quick ones. For IXCHIQ, for customers already actively protecting travelers, can you talk about how many touch points you have in the United States? And how many of those sites -- will there be in the EU for IXCHIQ once you're approved there? And can you talk about EU launch plans and rollout?

So basically, I will see whether we can find out how many touch points we really have because I don't know it out of the top of my head. But for the EU, it is very clear that we expect the product license ideally now in the summer with a positive CHMP opinion, then followed by EC adoption. And then of course, we have the whole oil field activities that will need to take place, which is why we originally, as you may recall Maury, guided that our anticipated launch date would be January 1 for the key and you have in Europe, the top five travel markets.

For chikungunya, particular situation with regard to France, given that the French history with (spoken in foreign language) means that the disease awareness around Chikungunya in Europe is probably highest in France. And that's why we may basically consider prioritizing front. Whether we will be able to accelerate, launch ahead of January first, 2025 in Europe, we have to see some, of course, (inaudible) to support it and regulatory activities to support it.

We will do it. We are ready. We have a team that is very excited to get this vaccine to people as soon as possible. And that's all I can say at this point. And I will provide you with the number of touch points in the US as soon as I get it from the from the US. team, more from the commercial team.

Okay. That's helpful. Thank you. And then a quick follow up on the US DoD potential for chikungunya. Just wondering, have they committed to running a formal request for proposal there? Or is that part of the ongoing conversation? And what could we learn more about just the conversations with the US DoD for IXCHIQ?

It will definitely follow a different process, Maury. And so basically, we do not expect, therefore to -- that they will launch, let's say, formal RFP. But the discussions are still ongoing. And I just got the from our team that there are more than 200, basically, touch points at this stage in, what we call, the Tier 1 and Tier 2 accounts. But we will provide you with more details around that as soon as we get it.

Okay. That sounds good. Thank you for taking my questions.

You're welcome.

This concludes today's question and answer session. I would now like to hand over to Thomas Lingelbach for closing remarks.

Thank you so much. Yeah, thanks a lot for your active participation today. Thanks a lot for your great questions. And thanks for following us for your continued trust, confidence in our work. We are excited about where we are, as I said, solid start of the year and clear prospect for this year and clear midterm, exciting outlook. With that, I wish you all a wonderful rest of the day and talk soon. Bye.