Visa Inc (V) 2009 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Visa Inc.'s fiscal first quarter 2009 earnings conference call.

歡迎參加 Visa Inc. 的 2009 財年第一季度財報電話會議。

All participants are in a listen-only mode until the question-and-answer session.

在問答環節之前，所有參與者都處於只聽模式。

Today's conference is being recorded.

今天的會議正在錄製中。

If you have any objections you may disconnect at this time.

如果您有任何異議，您可以在此時斷開連接。

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr.

我現在想把會議交給你的主持人，先生。

Jack Carsky, head of global investor relations.

全球投資者關係主管傑克·卡斯基。

Mr.

先生。

Carsky, you may begin.

卡斯基，你可以開始了。

Thanks, Stacy.

謝謝，斯泰西。

Good afternoon, and welcome to Visa Inc.'s fiscal first quarter 2009 earnings conference call.

下午好，歡迎參加 Visa Inc. 的 2009 財年第一季度財報電話會議。

Joining us today are Joe Saunders, Visa's Chairman an Chief Executive Officer, and Byron Pollitt, Visa's Chief Financial Officer.

今天加入我們的有 Visa 董事長兼首席執行官 Joe Saunders 和 Visa 首席財務官 Byron Pollitt。

This call is currently being webcast live over the internet.

該電話目前正在互聯網上進行網絡直播。

It can be accessed on the investor relations section of our website at www.investorvisa.com.

可在我們網站 www.investorvisa.com 的投資者關係部分訪問。

A replay of the webcast will also be archived on our site for the next 30 days.

網絡廣播的重播也將在我們的網站上存檔，為期 30 天。

A PowerPoint deck containing highlights of today's commentary was posted to our website prior to this call.

在本次電話會議之前，我們的網站上發布了包含今天評論要點的 PowerPoint 幻燈片。

Let me also remind you that this presentation may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

我還要提醒您，本演示文稿可能包括 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。

By their nature, forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance, and as a result a variety of factors -- excuse me, as a result of a variety of factors, actual results could differ materially from such statements.

就其性質而言，前瞻性陳述並不能保證未來的業績，因此有多種因素——對不起，由於多種因素，實際結果可能與此類陳述存在重大差異。

Additional information concerning these factors is available on the Company's filings with the SEC, which can be accessed through their website, and the investor relations section of the Visa website.

有關這些因素的更多信息可在公司向 SEC 提交的文件中獲取，這些文件可通過其網站和 Visa 網站的投資者關係部分訪問。

For historical non-GAAP, or pro forma-related financial information disclosed in this call, related GAAP measures and other information required by Regulation G of the SEC, are available on the financial and statistical summary accompanying our fiscal first quarter earnings press release.

對於本次電話會議中披露的歷史非 GAAP 或備考相關財務信息、相關 GAAP 措施和美國證券交易委員會 G 條例要求的其他信息，可在我們的第一財季財報新聞稿隨附的財務和統計摘要中找到。

This release can also be accessed through the investor relations section of our website.

也可以通過我們網站的投資者關係部分訪問此新聞稿。

With that I'll turn the call over to Joe.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給喬。

Thank you, Jack, and thanks to all of you for joining us this afternoon.

謝謝你，傑克，也感謝大家今天下午加入我們。

I'm pleased to report that in spite of the ongoing challenges with the economy we begin our fiscal 2009 with solid results across the board.

我很高興地報告，儘管經濟面臨持續挑戰，但我們在 2009 財年開始時取得了全面穩健的業績。

Keeping in mind that our first quarter service revenue, which represents approximately 40% of our total revenue, is based on a one quarter lag, earnings, revenues and payment volumes all came in better than we anticipated going into the year.

請記住，我們的第一季度服務收入約占我們總收入的 40%，這是基於一個季度的滯後，收入、收入和支付量都比我們今年的預期要好。

The resilience of our business could be seen in the contribution of our debit products in the US, as consumers continued to more frequently use debit as a method of payment.

隨著消費者繼續更頻繁地使用借記卡作為支付方式，我們的業務彈性可以從我們藉記卡產品在美國的貢獻中看出。

In addition we also saw growth in credit products outside the United States, particularly in emerging markets.

此外，我們還看到美國以外的信貸產品出現增長，尤其是在新興市場。

That said, the economic situation across the globe has had and will continue to have an effect on dollar payment volumes in the US and internationally for at least the next two to three quarters.

也就是說，至少在未來兩到三個季度，全球經濟形勢已經並將繼續對美國和國際上的美元支付量產生影響。

On the other hand I should point out that Visa continues to benefit from growth in the number of transactions conducted over our network.

另一方面，我應該指出，Visa 繼續受益於通過我們網絡進行的交易數量的增長。

As a reminder, approximately 30% of our revenue is derived from the absolute number of transactions that take place over Visa net..

提醒一下，我們大約 30% 的收入來自通過 Visa 網絡進行的交易的絕對數量。

This volume grew 8% in the December quarter to almost ten billion transactions, demonstrating that even in severe economic times, Visa continues to take volume from cash and checks.

這一交易量在 12 月季度增長了 8%，達到近 100 億筆交易，這表明即使在嚴峻的經濟時期，Visa 仍繼續從現金和支票中獲取交易量。

Now, let me give you a brief overview of the financials for the quarter.

現在，讓我簡要概述一下本季度的財務狀況。

Once again, with the one quarter service revenue lag in mind, net operating revenues in the first quarter were just over $1.7 billion, an increase of 17% over the year-ago period and ahead of our guidance.

再一次考慮到一個季度的服務收入滯後，第一季度的淨營業收入剛剛超過 17 億美元，比去年同期增長 17%，高於我們的預期。

Operating margins, which benefited from seasonal impacts, were strong as well and exceeded our stated full-year guidance of the mid to high 40% range, and adjusted first quarter net income of $599 million was 35% greater than the year-ago period.

受益於季節性影響的營業利潤率也很強勁，超過了我們規定的中高 40% 範圍的全年指導，調整後的第一季度淨收入為 5.99 億美元，比去年同期增長 35%。

As I mentioned, we are now seeing signs of a more pronounced decline in US payment volume growth and global cross-border volumes than we had expected going into our fiscal year.

正如我所提到的，我們現在看到美國支付量增長和全球跨境交易量下降的跡像比我們在本財年的預期更為明顯。

While we began 2009 with the expectation that revenue growth would slow to the high single digits in the back half of the year, we are now projecting that growth to be in the low single digits.

雖然我們在 2009 年開始時預計收入增長將在今年下半年放緩至高個位數，但我們現在預計該增長將處於低個位數。

So our full-year fiscal 2009 revenue now looks to be in the high single digits, somewhere below our longer-term guidance of 11% to 15%.

因此，我們 2009 財年全年的收入現在看起來處於高個位數，低於我們 11% 至 15% 的長期指導。

In our next fiscal quarter, however, we continue to expect revenue growth to be in the middle of the 11% to 15% guidance range as it benefits from a one-time $70 million addition to incentives in the prior year.

然而，在我們的下一個財政季度，我們繼續預計收入增長將處於 11% 至 15% 的指導範圍的中間，因為它受益於上一年一次性增加的 7000 萬美元的激勵措施。

This means that the normalized second quarter growth rate is expected to be in the mid to high single digits, further decelerating in the second half of the year to the low single digits.

這意味著正常化二季度增速有望在中高個位數，下半年進一步減速至低個位數。

On the positive side, we are reducing expenses which, based on the current trends we see for the year, will help us meet our objective of 2009 diluted earnings per share growth of greater than 20%.

積極的一面是，我們正在減少開支，根據我們今年看到的當前趨勢，這將有助於我們實現 2009 年攤薄後每股收益增長超過 20% 的目標。

Specifically, we have accelerated our previously-announced global integration efforts.

具體來說，我們加快了之前宣布的全球整合工作。

As we continue to integrate our previously independent operating units we are reducing duplication and prioritizing our project funding, including our marketing spend, which we expect to be somewhat below the level of fiscal 2008.

隨著我們繼續整合我們以前獨立的運營部門，我們正在減少重複並優先考慮我們的項目資金，包括我們的營銷支出，我們預計這將略低於 2008 財年的水平。

As a result, we are reaffirming our 2009 earnings per share and operating margin guidance.

因此，我們重申 2009 年每股收益和營業利潤率指導。

But let me be absolutely clear about our operating plan.

但是讓我絕對清楚我們的運營計劃。

All of these efforts will be consistent with fully funding our growth initiatives.

所有這些努力都將與為我們的增長計劃提供充分的資金相一致。

Byron will provide additional detail on our guidance momentarily.

Byron 將立即提供有關我們指導的更多詳細信息。

Looking ahead to fiscal 2010 we are cautiously optimistic that we can regain our 11% to 15% revenue growth target, assuming some recovery in the US economy and cross-border volumes by early 2010 and the anticipated more favorable year-over-year comparisons on gas prices and foreign exchange rates.

展望 2010 財年，我們謹慎樂觀地認為，假設到 2010 年初美國經濟和跨境交易量有所回升，並且預期與去年同期相比更有利，我們可以重新獲得 11% 至 15% 的收入增長目標。天然氣價格和外匯匯率。

On that basis we reaffirm all of our guidance for 2010.

在此基礎上，我們重申我們對 2010 年的所有指導。

Additionally, we expect to achieve our earnings per share and operating margin targets even if the revenue growth is somewhat below our guidance range.

此外，即使收入增長略低於我們的指導範圍，我們也希望實現每股收益和營業利潤率目標。

To deliver these results in challenging times it is more critical than ever that we have the people and the mechanisms in place to effectively engage our clients.

為了在充滿挑戰的時代取得這些成果，我們擁有適當的人員和機制來有效地吸引我們的客戶，這一點比以往任何時候都更加重要。

We are focusing on their specific business needs and challenges and creating programs to help them build stronger and more profitable relationships with their customers.

我們專注於他們特定的業務需求和挑戰，並製定計劃來幫助他們與客戶建立更牢固、更有利可圖的關係。

And as we make our business decisions we will thoughtfully consider how our actions may impact our clients' businesses.

在我們做出業務決策時，我們會深思熟慮地考慮我們的行為會如何影響客戶的業務。

Of course we take nothing for granted but we believe this commitment to client service combined with our product and network strengths position us well, particularly during a period of intense consolidation in the banking industry.

當然，我們並不認為是理所當然的，但我們相信這種對客戶服務的承諾與我們的產品和網絡優勢相結合，使我們處於有利地位，尤其是在銀行業高度整合的時期。

With that let me turn the call over to Byron, who will take you through the financial results and our current thinking and financial guidance.

有了這個，讓我把電話轉給拜倫，他將帶您了解財務結果以及我們當前的思維和財務指導。

Thank you, Joe.

謝謝你，喬。

Let me start with the financial highlights of our fiscal first quarter and then I'll touch on trends we are seeing for the quarter ending in December, as well as some early results for January.

讓我從第一財季的財務亮點開始，然後談談我們在 12 月結束的季度看到的趨勢，以及 1 月份的一些早期結果。

As Joe mentioned, it was an encouraging start to 2009 with solid revenue and earnings growth, keeping in mind that service revenues, which represent almost 40% of revenue, are reported on a one quarter lag.

正如喬所提到的，這是一個令人鼓舞的 2009 年開端，收入和盈利增長穩健，但要記住，佔收入近 40% 的服務收入報告滯後四分之一。

Total payment volume through the end of September 2008 grew 12% to $701 billion over the same quarter of 2007.

截至 2008 年 9 月底的總支付額比 2007 年同期增長了 12%，達到 7010 億美元。

During this time the US posted solid results, growing 9% to $421 billion.

在此期間，美國公佈了穩健的業績，增長 9% 至 4210 億美元。

Broken down further, debit delivered a strong 14% growth, while credit continued to moderate and slowed to 3% from the prior-period's 5%.

進一步細分，借方實現了 14% 的強勁增長，而信貸繼續放緩並從上一期間的 5% 放緩至 3%。

As a reminder, our US payment volume is about equally distributed between debit and credit.

提醒一下，我們在美國的支付量在藉方和貸方之間大致平均分配。

On a constant dollar basis, rest of world payment volume grew at 22%, modestly higher than the 20% growth of the June quarter.

按固定美元計算，世界其他地區的支付量增長了 22%，略高於 6 月季度 20% 的增長。

In contrast to the September-ending quarter, cross-border volume growth in the December-ending quarter slowed to zero on a constant dollar basis, down from low double digits in the prior period.

與 9 月底季度相比，12 月底季度的跨境交易量增長放緩至零，以固定美元計算，低於上一期間的低兩位數。

This slowdown was broad-based.

這種放緩是廣泛的。

Globally, which excludes Visa Europe, total cards outstanding for the period ending September grew 10%, with 1.7 billion cards carrying the Visa brand.

在不包括 Visa Europe 的全球範圍內，截至 9 月期間的未償還信用卡總數增長了 10%，其中有 17 億張帶有 Visa 品牌的信用卡。

Credit cards grew 6% to 812 million cards, while debit rose 14% to 864 million cards.

信用卡增長 6% 至 8.12 億張，而藉記卡增長 14% 至 8.64 億張。

Importantly, international growth of 16% remained very healthy.

重要的是，16% 的國際增長仍然非常健康。

Card growth combined with ongoing efforts to broaden acceptance and usage represent a significant opportunity.

卡的增長與不斷擴大接受度和使用的努力相結合，代表了一個重要的機會。

Transactions processed over Visa's network, which are reported with no quarterly lag, totaled $9.8 billion in the first fiscal quarter, an increase of 8% over the similar period a year ago.

第一財季通過 Visa 網絡處理的交易總額為 98 億美元，比去年同期增長 8%，據報導沒有季度滯後。

It is important to reiterate a point that Joe made at the beginning of this call.

重要的是要重申喬在本次電話會議開始時提出的觀點。

While payment volume and average ticket sizes are moderating in the face of much more difficult economic times, our transaction counts, which are an important component of our net revenue, are growing very well as the underlying secular shift to electronic payment, and more precisely to Visa, continues.

雖然面對更加困難的經濟時期，支付量和平均門票規模正在放緩，但作為我們淨收入的重要組成部分的交易數量正在快速增長，因為潛在的長期轉向電子支付，更準確地說是簽證，繼續。

Turning to the income statement.

轉向損益表。

In the first quarter gross revenues of $2 billion were up 16% from the similar period in 2007(Sic-see press release).

第一季度總收入為 20 億美元，比 2007 年同期增長 16%（參見新聞稿）。

Volume and support incentives increased by $19 million to $269 million, which represented 13% of gross revenue, moderately below our expectations coming into the year.

數量和支持獎勵增加了 1900 萬美元，達到 2.69 億美元，佔總收入的 13%，略低於我們今年的預期。

Volume and support incentives are recognized based on current quarter results and this decline was almost entirely a function of lower fiscal first quarter payment volumes, which in turn resulted in lower payments and accruals.

數量和支持激勵措施是根據當前季度業績確認的，這種下降幾乎完全是由於第一財季支付量減少，這反過來又導致支付和應計項目減少。

We expect that this dynamic will continue to provide some level of offset to lower revenue growth in our second quarter.

我們預計這種動態將繼續在一定程度上抵消我們第二季度收入增長的下降。

Given our updated full-year revenue projections, we now expect 2009 volume and support incentives to be 14% to 16% of gross revenue, down from our initial guidance of 16% to 17%.

鑑於我們更新的全年收入預測，我們現在預計 2009 年的銷量和支持獎勵將佔總收入的 14% 至 16%，低於我們最初指導的 16% 至 17%。

Net operating revenues were just over $1.7 billion, a 17% increase over the operating revenues recorded for the first fiscal quarter of 2008.

淨營業收入剛剛超過 17 億美元，比 2008 年第一財季的營業收入增長了 17%。

Moving to the individual revenue line item.

轉到單個收入行項目。

Service revenue was $793 million, up 8% over the prior-year period and reflective of solid year-over-year payment volumes in all regions for the quarter ending September 30.

服務收入為 7.93 億美元，比去年同期增長 8%，反映了截至 9 月 30 日的季度所有地區的同比支付量穩健。

Data processing revenue, reporting on a current-quarter basis, was $554 million, up 13% over the prior year.

按本季度報告的數據處理收入為 5.54 億美元，比上年增長 13%。

International transaction revenues, also reported on a current quarter basis, were thir -- we up 33% to $505 million, as moderating cross-border volumes in the period were offset by competitive pricing modifications.

國際交易收入也按本季度報告，增長 33% 至 5.05 億美元，因為該期間跨境交易量放緩被具有競爭力的定價修改所抵消。

Our adjusted operating margin, which tends to be highest in our fiscal first quarter, was approximately 58%, above our full-year guidance, as Joe mentioned.

正如喬所說，我們調整後的營業利潤率在我們的第一財季往往最高，約為 58%，高於我們的全年指導。

In addition to seasonal impacts and better-than-anticipated expense savings the increase in margin was due to lower volume and support incentives.

除了季節性影響和好於預期的費用節省外，利潤率的增加是由於數量減少和支持激勵措施。

which are recognized in the current quarter.

在本季度確認。

I'll provide additional color on our margin expectation in a moment.

我稍後會為我們的保證金預期提供額外的顏色。

On an adjusted basis operating expenses for the first quarter declined $29 million, or 4% year over year, driven by lower costs for personnel and professional fees, as well as flat marketing spend.

在調整後的基礎上，第一季度的運營費用下降了 2900 萬美元，同比下降 4%，原因是人員和專業費用成本降低，以及營銷支出持平。

As Joe mentioned earlier, our focus on cost is broad-based and aimed at delivering the expense savings committed to by management during our IPO road show.

正如喬之前提到的，我們對成本的關注是廣泛的，旨在實現管理層在 IPO 路演期間承諾的費用節省。

Please note that while we had originally guided to flat marketing spend in fiscal 2009 versus 2008, our current expectation is that the spending level will be somewhat below the level of 2008.

請注意，雖然我們最初將 2009 財年的營銷支出與 2008 年持平，但我們目前的預期是支出水平將略低於 2008 年的水平。

Capital expenditures were $68 million in the quarter, approximately $40 million of which was dedicated to the build out of our new data center.

本季度的資本支出為 6800 萬美元，其中約 4000 萬美元用於建設我們的新數據中心。

The center will be fully operational by the fiscal fourth quarter.

該中心將在第四財季全面投入運營。

Moving on to the balance sheet.

轉到資產負債表。

We ended the first quarter in excellent shape with very little debt and cash, cash equivalents, available-for-sale investments and restricted cash of $5.6 billion.

我們以極少的債務和現金、現金等價物、可供出售的投資和 56 億美元的受限現金結束了第一季度的出色表現。

Of this total, $2.6 billion is restricted cash, which represents an amount sufficient to fully fund the American Express and Discover settlements.

其中，26 億美元是受限現金，足以為美國運通和 Discover 和解提供全部資金。

Two significant cash outflows are notable for the quarter.

本季度有兩個顯著的現金流出。

First, in mid October we redeemed all of the Series 2 and a portion of the Series 3 Class C shares that were held by Visa Europe for a total of $2.7 billion, resulting in a single class of C shares and the elimination of our pro forma approach to share count and earnings per share.

首先，在 10 月中旬，我們以總計 27 億美元的價格贖回了 Visa Europe 持有的所有系列 2 和部分系列 3 C 類股票，從而產生了單一的 C 類股票並取消了我們的備考股票數量和每股收益的方法。

All Class C shares are now translatable, one to one, into Class A equivalent shares.

所有 C 類股份現在都可以一對一地轉換為 A 類等價股份。

Second, at the end of December we delivered on our commitment to return excess cash to our shareholders when Visa funded the litigation escrow by $1.1 billion directly from our cash balances instead of conducting an expensive follow-on underwriting.

其次，在 12 月底，當 Visa 直接從我們的現金餘額中為訴訟託管提供 11 億美元資金而不是進行昂貴的後續承銷時，我們兌現了向股東返還多餘現金的承諾。

This had the same effect as a stock repurchase and reduced the amount of shares outstanding for EPS calculation purposes by 20.8 million shares.

這與股票回購具有相同的效果，並將用於計算每股收益的流通股數量減少了 2080 萬股。

While there was little effect to the average share count in the first fiscal quarter, the full effect will be realized in the second quarter and beyond.

雖然對第一財季的平均股票數量影響不大，但全面影響將在第二季度及以後實現。

As a result of these two transactions, as of December 31, 2008, Visa, Inc.

由於這兩項交易，截至 2008 年 12 月 31 日，Visa, Inc.

has 755 million Class A shares outstanding on an as-converted basis and began the fiscal second quarter with a fully -diluted Class A share count of 756 million shares.

在轉換後的基礎上擁有 7.55 億股流通在外的 A 類股票，並在第二財季開始時以 7.56 億股完全稀釋的 A 類股票數量開始。

Now let me comment on the trends we are seeing that will impact our results in the coming quarter and fiscal 2009.

現在讓我評論一下我們所看到的趨勢，這些趨勢將影響我們下一季度和 2009 財年的業績。

While we expect to hit the middle of our 11% to 15% revenue guidance range in our fiscal second quarter, in part due to a non-recurring $70 million addition to incentives in the prior year, the back half of 2009 is now looking to be more challenging than we expected going into the year.

雖然我們預計在第二財季的收入指導範圍將達到 11% 至 15% 的中間值，部分原因是上一年在激勵措施之外增加了 7,000 萬美元的非經常性美元，但 2009 年下半年現在正在尋求比我們預期的更具挑戰性。

This will have ramifications to our revenue projections in the third and fourth quarters, though we remain committed to delivering our full-year earnings per share and operating margin guidance.

這將對我們第三和第四季度的收入預測產生影響，儘管我們仍致力於提供全年每股收益和營業利潤率指導。

Specifically, here in the US payment volume growth has declined from 9% in the September quarter, to essentially flat in the December quarter.

具體來說，美國的支付量增長已從 9 月季度的 9% 下降到 12 月季度的基本持平。

Deconstructing this further, credit volume ended the period at a negative 6%, while debit posted a 6% gain.

進一步解構這一點，信貸量在該期間結束時為負 6%，而藉方則增長了 6%。

More recently through the end of January, aggregate US payment volume growth is trending relatively flat; credit growth is negative, in the mid single digits, relatively unchanged from the December quarter; and debit appears to have regained some momentum, rising from positive low single digits in the month of December back to the mid single-digit range in January.

最近到 1 月底，美國的總支付量增長趨勢相對平緩；信貸增長為負增長，處於中個位數，與 12 月季度相比基本持平；借方似乎已經恢復了一些勢頭，從 12 月份的正低個位數回升至 1 月份的中個位數範圍。

When you dig a little deeper into the underlying dynamics of these trends, what we are seeing is that the steep drop in gas prices over the past several months has noticely -- noticeably dampened payments growth, despite notable growth rates in other categories of spend like recurring bill pay, quick service restaurants and healthcare.

當您更深入地研究這些趨勢的潛在動態時，我們看到的是，過去幾個月汽油價格的急劇下跌已經明顯 - 明顯抑制了支付增長，儘管其他類別的支出增長率顯著，例如經常性賬單支付、快速服務餐廳和醫療保健。

All of these categories tend to favor debit over credit in this environment, which underlies some of the resilience of that product.

在這種環境下，所有這些類別都傾向於借記而不是貸記，這是該產品具有一定彈性的基礎。

Net-net this leaves us cautiously optimistic that debit will continue to sustain respectable growth in this tougher economic environment.

Net-net 這讓我們謹慎樂觀地認為，在這個更嚴峻的經濟環境中，借方將繼續保持可觀的增長。

Outside the United States, for the quarter ending December 2008 constant dollar payment volume growth rates declined from the low 20s to the mid-teens.

在美國以外的地區，截至 2008 年 12 月的季度，固定美元支付量增長率從 20 年代低點下降到 10 年代中期。

As mentioned earlier, cross-border volumes were flat in the December-ending quarter and in January have declined to negative mid single digits.

如前所述，12 月底季度的跨境交易量持平，1 月份已降至負中個位數。

Now let me comment on what we see over the coming year as far as our operating performance is concerned and how it may impact our current guidance.

現在讓我評論一下我們對未來一年的經營業績的看法，以及它可能如何影響我們目前的指導。

As Joe previously mentioned, on a full-year basis we are projecting total net revenue to come in below the lower end of our 11% to 15% guidance range in the high single digits.

正如喬之前提到的那樣，在全年的基礎上，我們預計總淨收入將低於我們 11% 至 15% 的高個位數指導範圍的下限。

While we still expect to achieve the middle of our 11% to 15% guidance range in the fiscal second quarter, the third and fourth quarters are now shaping up to be more challenging than we had signaled last quarter, with the probability of low single-digit growth.

雖然我們仍預計在第二財季實現 11% 至 15% 指導範圍的中間值，但第三和第四季度現在正變得比我們上個季度所暗示的更具挑戰性，單次下降的可能性較低數增長。

This second half outlook also encompasses a more pronounced foreign exchange impact, which, on a year-over-year basis, is expected to reduce revenue growth by about three percentage points.

下半年的展望還包括更顯著的外匯影響，預計這將使收入增長減少約三個百分點。

Despite the strong adjusted operating margin exhibited this quarter we are maintaining our long-term guidance of the mid to high 40% range for adjusted operating margin through 2010.

儘管本季度表現出強勁的調整後營業利潤率，但我們仍將調整後營業利潤率維持在 40% 的中高範圍的長期指導，直至 2010 年。

Though we should continue to realize incremental savings from our merger and cost initiatives, given the pressure on revenues in the back half of the year, the general uncertainty around the economy and our intention to continue investing for future growth, we are staying with our current range.

儘管我們應該繼續從合併和成本計劃中實現增量節省，但鑑於下半年的收入壓力、經濟的普遍不確定性以及我們繼續投資以實現未來增長的意圖，我們仍將保持目前的範圍。

More importantly, and to reiterate Joe's statement, we remain on track to deliver our guidance of annual adjusted diluted earnings per share growth of greater than 20% for 2009.

更重要的是，為了重申喬的聲明，我們仍有望實現 2009 年調整後的年度攤薄後每股收益增長超過 20% 的指導。

Looking beyond 2009, assuming some US economic recovery by early 2010, as well as more favorable comparisons, particularly in cross-border activity, gas prices and foreign exchange rates, we expect to achieve our earnings per share and operating margin guidance.

展望 2009 年以後，假設到 2010 年初美國經濟出現一些復甦，以及更有利的比較，特別是在跨境活動、天然氣價格和外匯匯率方面，我們預計將實現每股收益和營業利潤率指導。

That concludes my comments, so I'll turn the call back over to Joe.

我的評論到此結束，所以我將把電話轉回給喬。

Thanks, Byron.

謝謝，拜倫。

Let me conclude by saying that it's important to remember that Visa's business in the US, while vital to the Company, is only one part of a large and growing global enterprise.

最後讓我說，重要的是要記住，Visa 在美國的業務雖然對公司至關重要，但它只是一家大型且不斷發展的全球企業的一部分。

and despite the current economic headwinds our international growth opportunities, both in credit and debit, continue to offer us very attractive longer-term prospects as economies expand and mature and payment systems evolve around the globe.

儘管當前存在經濟逆風，但隨著全球經濟的擴張和成熟以及支付系統的發展，我們在信貸和借方方面的國際增長機會繼續為我們提供極具吸引力的長期前景。

And when economy of the US does turn for the better the actions we are taking now on expenses, on new product development in both credit and debit, and on international expense -- expansion will pay enormous dividends over the long term.

當美國經濟確實好轉時，我們現在在開支、信貸和借方的新產品開發以及國際開支方面採取的行動——從長遠來看，擴張將帶來巨大的紅利。

Thank you all for listening and with that we are ready to take questions.

謝謝大家的聆聽，我們準備好回答問題了。

Operator?

操作員？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員說明）。

Our first question today comes from Craig Maurer of Calyon.

我們今天的第一個問題來自 Calyon 的 Craig Maurer。

Good evening.

晚上好。

Regarding the "competitive pricing" changes regarding - around cross-border\s I was wondering if you could just characterize how that plays with the regulators over there, considering the environment, particularly in Europe?

關於圍繞跨境的“競爭性定價”變化，我想知道你是否可以描述一下那裡的監管機構如何發揮作用，考慮到環境，特別是在歐洲？

And my second question is, can you characterize the level of your marketing spend that's tied to contract obligations versus what's completely discretionary?

我的第二個問題是，您能否描述與合同義務相關的營銷支出水平與完全可自由支配的水平？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Well, to begin with the pricing changes that we're talking about were made several quarters ago and are being manifested in what we do -- in what we do now.

好吧，首先我們正在談論的定價變化是在幾個季度前進行的，並且正在我們所做的事情中得到體現 - 在我們現在所做的事情中。

This isn't a recent action.

這不是最近的行動。

In the second regard, the majority of our marketing spending is discretionary, not non-discretionary.

在第二個方面，我們的大部分營銷支出是可自由支配的，而不是非可自由支配的。

Okay.

好的。

And so -- and that continues to be the case.

所以 - 情況仍然如此。

I would say that the traction that we're getting on marketing spend is mostly related to the efficiency of what we're doing today as opposed to what we did a year ago when we were a new Company.

我想說的是，我們在營銷支出方面獲得的牽引力主要與我們今天所做工作的效率有關，而不是一年前我們還是一家新公司時所做的工作。

Right.

正確的。

Which includes the recent consolidation of agencies?

其中包括最近的機構合併？

Yes, the consolidation of agencies and, frankly, the lower cost of different types of media.

是的，機構的整合，坦率地說，不同類型媒體的成本更低。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, guys.

多謝你們。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Your next question comes from Tien-Tsin Huang of JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Tien-Tsin Huang。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Appreciate the commentary on the December volumes in the US, it's actually a bit better than we expected.

欣賞美國 12 月成交量的評論，實際上比我們預期的要好一些。

I was just curious, it looks like US payment volume is tracking closer to retail sales than it has in the past, kind of like it was flat.

我只是好奇，看起來美國的支付量比過去更接近零售額，有點像持平。

Still a premium but not as big as the usual secular premium that we would see.

仍然是溢價，但沒有我們看到的通常的長期溢價那麼大。

So I guess I was trying to better understand what do you think is driving that reduction in the premium?

所以我想我是想更好地理解你認為是什麼推動了保費的減少？

Is it really just lower average tickets and gas influencing that?

真的只是較低的平均票價和汽油影響嗎？

Well, to a certain it's lower -- modestly lower average tickets, which is related to the economy in general.

好吧，在一定程度上，它更低——平均票價略低，這與總體經濟有關。

So quick service restaurants and categories like that are increasing more rapidly than high-end retail or travel or airlines.

因此，與高端零售、旅遊或航空公司相比，快速服務餐廳和此類類別的增長速度更快。

Having said that, fuel prices have a significant impact on our payment volume growth in the short run.

話雖如此，燃料價格在短期內對我們的支付量增長有重大影響。

If you go back through last October, gas prices steadily increased to well over $4 a gallon from depending on what week you're looking at, they're around $1.70 a gallon right now.

如果你回顧去年 10 月，汽油價格穩步上漲到每加侖 4 美元以上，具體取決於你看的星期幾，現在大約是每加侖 1.70 美元。

So there's a huge drop in the price of gas and gas accounts for about 10% of our total payment volume across both categories, so you have 10% of your volume where the cost of a gallon of gas is off by 40%, 45%.

因此，天然氣價格大幅下降，天然氣在這兩個類別中占我們總支付量的 10% 左右，所以你有 10% 的交易量，一加侖天然氣的成本降低了 40%、45% .

That obviously will not be the case in 2010.

2010 年顯然不會是這樣。

Assuming everything stays the way it is, you can do the numbers, but it makes a difference in our growth rate.

假設一切都保持原樣，你可以做數字，但這會影響我們的增長率。

Okay, that's really helpful.

好的，這真的很有幫助。

Did you see any noticeable change in average tickets or I guess the number of swipes in the US in December?

您是否看到平均門票有任何明顯變化，或者我猜美國 12 月份的刷卡次數？

We got the volume data but I was just curious if you saw a similar trend in transaction counts.

我們得到了交易量數據，但我很好奇您是否看到交易數量的類似趨勢。

I think as we said we saw the number of transactions go up at a pretty strong high single-digit rate and was eight -- I think it was 8% -- I think that we just said 8%, but the average ticket size in the aggregate is down by several dollars, by 5%, I think.

我認為正如我們所說，我們看到交易數量以相當高的個位數增長，並且是 8 - 我認為是 8% - 我認為我們剛剛說的是 8%，但平均門票規模在我認為總體下降了幾美元，下降了 5%。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And then lastly just the --

最後就是——

Not all of that is fuel, but fuel is a considerable hunk of it.

並非所有這些都是燃料，但燃料是其中的一大塊。

Right.

正確的。

Yes, because we've been trying to focus more on transaction count.

是的，因為我們一直在嘗試更多地關注交易數量。

I'll end by asking, just to confirm, the data processing line is primarily transaction based, correct, not volume based?

最後我會問，只是為了確認一下，數據處理線主要是基於事務的，正確的，而不是基於數量的？

That's correct.

這是正確的。

(inaudible) is 100% transaction based.

（聽不清）100% 基於交易。

Terrific.

了不起。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

So we're very pleased with the number of transactions going through our system in this period of time and, frankly, you can't look at it and not think that we're doing what we set out to do, which is to compete with cash and checks.

因此，我們對這段時間內通過我們系統的交易數量感到非常滿意，坦率地說，你不能看著它就認為我們正在做我們打算做的事情，那就是競爭用現金和支票。

Next question.

下一個問題。

Our next question comes from Jason Bilodeau with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Jason Bilodeau。

Your line is open.

你的線路是開放的。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Good afternoon and congratulations, guys.

下午好，祝賀你們，伙計們。

Wanted to ask a question just to start off with, we're getting more inquiries from investors trying to separate cyclical and secular trends here.

剛開始想問一個問題，我們收到了更多投資者的詢問，試圖在這里區分週期性和長期趨勢。

Obviously the cyclical part of the growth equation's getting a little bit more challenging, which I don't think is surprising to anyone.

顯然，增長方程的周期性部分變得更具挑戰性，我認為這對任何人來說都不足為奇。

Can you talk a little bit about the confidence level in the secular piece?

你能談談世俗作品的信心水平嗎？

There's obviously a lot of views out there that the days of easy credit are over and if the consumer does go into a period of more sustained deleveraging with an increased personal savings rate, to what extent do you guys think about that potential dynamic as you shape the outlook over the next year or so?

顯然有很多觀點認為，寬鬆信貸的時代已經結束，如果消費者確實進入了一個更持續的去槓桿化時期，個人儲蓄率提高了，你們在多大程度上考慮了這種潛在的動態未來一年左右的前景如何？

Okay.

好的。

So to begin with, if you look at our combined debit and credit volume, 95% of the volume that goes through our system comes from people that use debit cards, which don't have a credit limit, or in those cases where it is a credit card from people that either pay their bill in full every month, or occasionally revolve and never revolve it more than 50% of their life.

因此，首先，如果您查看我們的借記卡和貸記卡總量，通過我們系統的 95% 的交易量來自使用借記卡的人，這些卡沒有信用額度，或者在那些有信用額度的情況下來自每個月全額支付賬單，或者偶爾循環並且從不超過他們生命的 50% 的人的信用卡。

So part of the answer is that a lot of the volume that we have is gen -- is not generated by people that are borrowing a lot of money.

所以部分答案是，我們擁有的很多數量都是發電量——不是由借很多錢的人產生的。

We've got to keep reminding ourselves and everybody else that the growth in receivables in the credit card business has a lot to do with balance transfers in the acquisition of new accounts.

我們必須不斷提醒自己和其他人，信用卡業務中應收賬款的增長與收購新賬戶時的餘額轉移有很大關係。

Balance transfers, those loans that are created as a result of the balance transfers never go through our system.

餘額轉移，由於餘額轉移而產生的貸款永遠不會通過我們的系統。

Those are transactions that are handled outside of Visa's system, if you will, so while they may come under a Visa-branded product, they are not Visa volume to us.

這些是在 Visa 系統之外處理的交易，如果您願意的話，因此雖然它們可能屬於 Visa 品牌產品，但它們對我們來說不是 Visa 交易量。

Having said that, it's clear that things are more difficult than they used to be and it's clear that our volumes are down as a result of the economy in the US and economies around the world, although as we said, our credit card volumes in some emerging countries remain quite strong.

話雖如此，很明顯事情比以前更困難了，很明顯，由於美國和世界各地的經濟，我們的交易量正在下降，儘管正如我們所說，我們的信用卡交易量在一些新興國家仍然相當強大。

On the other hand, our transactions are up and they appear to be up because we appear to be taking share from cash and checks in categories; in the quick service restaurants, in the bill paying categories, which are often larger dollar amount transactions, in supermarkets and wholesale food chains -- wholesale retail chains and so forth and so on.

另一方面，我們的交易量增加了，而且它們似乎增加了，因為我們似乎從現金和支票類別中分一杯羹；在快餐店、賬單支付類別（通常是金額較大的交易）、超市和批發食品連鎖店——批發零售連鎖店等等。

I think that the answer that encourages me the most is.

我認為最鼓勵我的答案是。

if things begin to turn around, even modestly, we have structured ourselves to be poised to take advantage of it in a serious way.

如果事情開始好轉，即使是溫和的，我們已經做好準備，準備認真地利用它。

Okay.

好的。

That commentary is great and I think Adam has a follow-up question for you.

那個評論很棒，我認為亞當有一個後續問題要問你。

Hey, guys, how you doing?

嘿，伙計們，你們好嗎？

Good.

好的。

Pulling a Brett Favre here, I just couldn't stay away.

在這里拉布雷特法夫爾，我就是無法離開。

(LAUGHTER) But, Byron, you were pretty clear that your expense reduction program would not interfere in your growth initiatives, but is it also logical to think that once top-line growth recovers at some point, hopefully sooner rather than later, you won't have to add back at least the bulk of these expenses?

（笑聲）但是，拜倫，你很清楚你的開支削減計劃不會干擾你的增長計劃，但是認為一旦收入增長在某個時候恢復，希望早日而不是晚些，你贏了也是合乎邏輯的嗎？不必至少加回這些費用的大部分？

So I guess another way to ask it is, what you're cutting now does it have to be added back later once revenue growth reaccelerates?

所以我想另一種問法是，你現在削減的內容是否必須在收入增長重新加速後重新添加？

Well, I think we made clear from the beginning that not all of the savings that we would realize as a result of the merger would be flowed through to the bottom line and that we stand ready to reinvest those -- a portion of those savings in new product and growth initiatives and that remains true.

好吧，我認為我們從一開始就明確表示，並非我們因合併而實現的所有節省都會流向底線，我們隨時準備將這些再投資——其中一部分節省新產品和增長計劃，這仍然是正確的。

I think to help ground everyone, as Joe indicated, the margin for the first fiscal quarter is typically our highest throughout the fiscal year, so we would expect margins to moderate through the balance of the year, which is why we expect the -- which is why, frankly, we are holding our margin guidance to mid to high 40s.

正如喬所說，我認為為了幫助每個人，第一財季的利潤率通常是我們整個財年的最高水平，因此我們預計利潤率將在今年餘下時間放緩，這就是為什麼我們預計 -坦率地說，這就是為什麼我們將利潤率指導保持在 40 年代中期至較高水平的原因。

I would only add to that that in relation to the question you asked, are the dollars -- the expenses that we are saving going to show back up when the economy gets better, the answer is no.

我只想補充一點，關於你提出的問題，美元——我們節省的開支會在經濟好轉時重新出現，答案是否定的。

They will not show up.

他們不會出現。

Perfect.

完美的。

Thanks, guys.

多謝你們。

They're going away.

他們要走了。

Good, keep them away.

好，讓他們遠離。

Thanks.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員說明）。

Our next question comes from Julio Quinteros with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Julio Quinteros。

Sir, your line is open.

先生，您的線路已開通。

Great, hey, guys.

太好了，嘿，伙計們。

My question is really just want to focus more on pricing, and I know that we've heard a lot of commentary, chatter up in talking to a lot of folks out there that pricing increases are coming from Visa, Master Card, prepare for that., and I guess what I'm really trying to understand more than anything else, even if they were some pricing increases, not necessarily the magnitude, but where exactly should we be thinking about how each one of these pieces would flow through the revenue items.

我的問題真的只是想更多地關注定價，而且我知道我們聽到了很多評論，在與很多人交談時喋喋不休地談論價格上漲來自 Visa、萬事達卡，為此做好準備., 我想我最想了解的是什麼，即使它們是一些價格上漲，不一定是幅度，但我們應該在哪裡考慮這些作品中的每一個將如何通過收入流動項目。

I guess if you could focus more on thing like the card services line, the data processing fees and cross-border, how do we break out where or (inaudible) with it, or if you can provide a way to think about where those increases would really actually manifest themselves in the model?

我想如果你可以更多地關注信用卡服務線、數據處理費用和跨境，我們如何在哪里或（聽不清）打破它，或者你是否可以提供一種方法來思考這些增加的地方真的會在模型中表現出來嗎？

I think in the short run, I just suggested in my talk that we're going to be very careful about what we do, given the fragile state of the bottom line of our clients, particularly in the US.

我認為在短期內，我只是在我的演講中建議，鑑於我們客戶的底線脆弱，特別是在美國，我們將對我們所做的事情非常小心。

So while I'm not going to say we will do nothing, what we will do will be in concert with our partners and it'll be done in a thoughtful -- I think we've said a thoughtful, surgical way and we're not going to back off of that.

因此，雖然我不會說我們什麼都不做，但我們將與我們的合作夥伴一起做，並且會以深思熟慮的方式完成——我認為我們已經說過一種深思熟慮的外科手術方式，我們我不會退縮。

That's not where we believe our greatest opportunity lies.

這不是我們認為我們最大的機會所在的地方。

Okay.

好的。

And then maybe just in terms of the model itself, and maybe, Byron, you could just comment on, thinking about the line items, where would it actually show up in the model if there were to be anything like that?

然後也許就模型本身而言，也許，拜倫，你可以評論一下，考慮一下行項目，如果有類似的東西，它會在模型中實際出現的地方嗎？

Yes, I -- the way we've tried to be helpful is to elevate to an overall level of revenue guidance in combination with margin.

是的，我 - 我們試圖提供幫助的方式是將收入指導與利潤率相結合的整體水平。

I think we've said from the beginning that in our first 12 to 18 months as a public Company, as a merged entity, we had a lot of practices and a lot of opportunity to standardize and optimize our business across the globe.

我想我們從一開始就說過，在我們作為一家上市公司的頭 12 到 18 個月中，作為一個合併的實體，我們有很多實踐和很多機會來標準化和優化我們在全球的業務。

We are doing that and we'll -- then we'll basically have a non-normalized rate of growth through this year, but as we move beyond this year, again, as we've said before, the vast majority of our revenue growth should be attributed to taking share from cash and check and growing our business with transactions and a higher penetration of TCE.

我們正在這樣做，我們將 - 然後我們今年基本上會有一個非正常化的增長率，但是隨著我們超越今年，再次，正如我們之前所說，我們的絕大多數收入增長應歸功於從現金和支票中獲取份額，以及通過交易和 TCE 的更高滲透率來發展我們的業務。

We actually expect pricing to be a much more moderated impact over time on our revenue growth.

實際上，我們預計隨著時間的推移，定價對我們的收入增長的影響會更加溫和。

Perfect.

完美的。

Thank you, guys.

感謝你們。

Our next question comes from James Kissane with Banc of America/Merrill Lynch.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行/美林證券的 James Kissane。

Sir, your line is open.

先生，您的線路已開通。

Hey, thanks.

嘿，謝謝。

Byron, just following up on that, what portion of your revenue growth this year will be from the price increase?

拜倫，只是跟進一下，你今年的收入增長有多少來自價格上漲？

And then maybe just a quick follow up.

然後也許只是快速跟進。

When will the cross-border pricing adjustments anniversary?

跨境定價調整週年紀念日是什麼時候？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Let's start with the second.

讓我們從第二個開始。

The cross-border pricing adjustments you're referring to were initiated in Q3 of 2008 -- fiscal Q3 of 2008, so they will anniversary at the mid-way point of this fiscal year, which is a contributing factor to our guiding down revenue growth in the second half.

你說的跨境定價調整是在2008年第三季度——2008財年第三季度開始的，所以會在本財年中點進行週年紀念，這是我們引導收入增長下降的一個因素在下半場。

With regards to how much revenue is tied to price adjustments, that's not something that we have spoken to publicly and again, we tried to be helpful by giving, in this case, relatively specific revenue guidance by quarter for all of 2009.

至於有多少收入與價格調整掛鉤，這不是我們公開談論過的事情，在這種情況下，我們試圖通過提供 2009 年全年的季度相對具體的收入指導來提供幫助。

No, it's very helpful.

不，這很有幫助。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Our next question comes from Andrew Jeffrey with SunTrust.

我們的下一個問題來自 SunTrust 的 Andrew Jeffrey。

Sir, your line is open.

先生，您的線路已開通。

Hi, guys, thanks for taking the question.

嗨，伙計們，感謝您提出問題。

One of the things or one of the premises on which you're kind of basing the 2010 outlook is the thought that maybe we find a bottom here, at least in the US economy, 2009 and at least in credit volume.

您對 2010 年的前景做出某種判斷的其中一件事或前提之一是，我們可能會在此找到底部，至少在 2009 年的美國經濟和至少在信貸量方面。

Is there anything anecdotally or otherwise that you see out there that makes you feel comfortable with that kind of projection?

有沒有什麼趣聞軼事或其他讓你對這種投影感到舒服的事情？

Is it the disconnect between the view of restriction of credit and the type of customer or the type of transaction that flows through the network, or is there something else that makes you feel like that's something we should be thinking about?

是信用限制的觀點與客戶類型或通過網絡流動的交易類型之間的脫節，還是有其他什麼讓你覺得這是我們應該考慮的事情？

Let me respond first by saying this is not a projection.

讓我首先回應說這不是預測。

What we have said is that, if the economy in the US begins to has some degree of recovery in early fiscal year 2010, in combination with some recovery of cross-border, in addition to more favorable comparisons, specifically with gas prices and FX rate, then we beli -- then we will -- we are confident that we will resume our revenue guidance of 11% to 15% growth.

我們所說的是，如果美國經濟在 2010 財年初開始有一定程度的複蘇，再加上跨境的一些復甦，除了更有利的比較，特別是天然氣價格和匯率，那麼我們相信 - 然後我們會 - 我們有信心恢復我們的收入增長 11% 至 15% 的指導。

So what we're -- the way we're trying to be helpful here is if there -- under those circumstances, we feel very comfortable in projecting revenue growth in back into our guidance range.

所以我們 - 我們在這裡試圖提供幫助的方式是如果有 - 在這種情況下，我們對將收入增長預測回我們的指導範圍感到非常舒服。

Yes, let me just be a little bit more specific.

是的，讓我更具體一點。

I don't know when the economy in the world is going to recover, so when Byron suggests that there needs to be some recovery, that's what we're saying.

我不知道世界經濟何時會復蘇，所以當拜倫建議需要一些復甦時，這就是我們所說的。

If there is in the -- by around the first quarter of 2010 then I think we're in good shape.

如果有 - 到 2010 年第一季度左右，那麼我認為我們處於良好狀態。

As it relates to the foreign exchange and the gas prices we're considerably more certain that that will happen.

由於它與外彙和汽油價格有關，我們更加確定這會發生。

So it's really a mix of the two and remember, I don't need the economy to recover to a point of where I have to get to the revenue guidance to continue to deliver the 20% earnings per share.

因此，這實際上是兩者的混合，請記住，我不需要經濟恢復到我必須達到收入指導以繼續提供 20% 的每股收益的地步。

Okay.

好的。

Then, as a follow up on contra revenue it sounds like you're getting a little more constructive there relative to your net revenue growth, should we actually begin to see support and incentive payments fall as a percent of volume at some point in 2009?

然後，作為對收入的跟進，聽起來相對於您的淨收入增長，您在那兒變得更有建設性了，我們是否真的應該開始看到支持和獎勵支付在 2009 年的某個時候下降佔交易量的百分比？

The way we've articulated that is as a percent of gross revenue, and so we had -- going into the year, we had guided volume and support as a percent of gross revenue at 16% and 17%, because growth has been a bit less than anticipated, as a percentage of gross revenue that has fallen to, in this case, 13% for the quarter, and then we adjusted our guidance to 14% to 16% on a full-year basis.

我們將其表述為佔總收入的百分比，因此我們有 - 進入這一年，我們將數量和支持作為總收入的百分比指導為 16% 和 17%，因為增長一直是略低於預期，在本季度佔總收入的百分比已降至 13%，然後我們將全年的指導調整為 14% 至 16%。

Okay.

好的。

Yes, we don't expect it to remain that low.

是的，我們預計它不會保持那麼低。

Okay.

好的。

All right, thank you very much.

好的，非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Your next question comes from Chris Brendler of Stifel Nicolaus.

您的下一個問題來自 Stifel Nicolaus 的 Chris Brendler。

Hi, thanks.

你好謝謝。

Good afternoon.

下午好。

Just a quick follow up on that last question.

只是對最後一個問題的快速跟進。

The 14.5% -- or the 13% this quarter and the volume and support incentives, I assume that's based -- in your guidance for fiscal '09 is based on volumes staying relatively consistent where they were in the fourth quarter and January.

14.5% - 或本季度的 13% 以及數量和支持激勵措施，我假設這是基於 - 在您對 09 財年的指導中，基於數量在第四季度和 1 月份保持相對一致。

If you've taken a leg down, does that line item have more potential to drop and could it conceivably be as low as 10% of revenues, or is it not that sensitive if volume falls?

如果你已經走下坡路，那麼該訂單項是否有更大的下降潛力，它是否可能低至收入的 10%，或者如果銷量下降，它是否不那麼敏感？

Let me just -- let me start out by reminding you that the incentives are booked on a current quarter basis and the revenues on a lag basis, so you're talking about service revenues up to October and you're talking about incentive expense on a real-time basis that occurred in the ensuing quarter.

讓我先——讓我首先提醒您，獎勵是按當前季度計入的，而收入是滯後的，所以您談論的是截至 10 月的服務收入，而您談論的是 10 月的獎勵費用下一個季度發生的實時基礎。

And I would just add to that that the way the incentives would respond would be with diminishing return.

我只想補充一點，激勵措施的反應方式將是回報遞減。

So if revenues were -- if revenue growth was -- or payment volume growth continued to slow, there would be a diminishing dampening effect by incentives over time.

因此，如果收入 - 如果收入增長 - 或支付量增長繼續放緩，那麼隨著時間的推移，激勵措施的抑製作用將會逐漸減弱。

It's not linear.

它不是線性的。

Okay.

好的。

And then another follow up on --

然後另一個跟進——

And the flip side to that is once you begin annualizing that and you have recovery, you have the same phenomenon on the uptick that incentives will be -- will start to come back as growth in payment volumes begin to recover.

而另一方面，一旦你開始將其年度化並且你已經恢復，你就會有同樣的現象，即激勵措施將隨著支付量的增長開始恢復而開始回升。

Okay.

好的。

And then your guidance for and your commentary around cross-border, it sounds like cross-border actually did get worse in the month of January and once we hit the second quarter were running negative single digit like we were in January in terms of volumes.

然後你對跨境的指導和評論，聽起來跨境實際上在 1 月份確實變得更糟，一旦我們進入第二季度，就數量而言，就像我們在 1 月份一樣，它的負個位數。

We're going to see that in terms of revenues, as well, because pricing's going to anniversary.

我們也將在收入方面看到這一點，因為定價將迎來週年紀念日。

Is that in your guidance already, negative cross-border revenues by the second half of '09?

你的指導是否已經在 09 年下半年出現負跨境收入？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Everything that we know is in our gui -- is in the guidance that we're giving you today.

我們所知道的一切都在我們的 gui 中——在我們今天為您提供的指導中。

There is nothing that we've talked about that we haven't thoughtfully considered in putting together the comments that we put together today.

在匯總我們今天匯總的評論時，我們討論過的所有內容都沒有經過深思熟慮的考慮。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Joe.

謝謝，喬。

It doesn't suggest that things can't get worse, but we have considered everything that we're looking at.

這並不意味著事情不會變得更糟，但我們已經考慮了我們正在研究的一切。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員說明）。

Your next question comes from Chris Mammone of Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Chris Mammone。

Thanks.

謝謝。

I guess just following up on that last question, maybe you could get a little more granularity on the slowdown, is it sort of broad-based or could you touch on your major regions and specify if some regions are dragging down the overall volume numbers more than others?

我想只是跟進最後一個問題，也許你可以對放緩有更多的了解，它是一種廣泛的基礎，還是你可以觸及你的主要地區並指定某些地區是否更多地拖累了總體數量相對於其它的？

And then also a quick follow up, I don't know, could you give the process transaction growth for January?

然後也是一個快速跟進，我不知道，你能給出一月份的流程交易增長嗎？

Thanks.

謝謝。

So let me respond.

所以讓我回應一下。

With regards to regional granularity, when the economic malaise began to set in different regions entered that zone at different timeframes, but I think it's fair to say today all our regions are -- it's broad-based.

關於區域粒度，當不同地區的經濟萎靡開始在不同的時間範圍內進入該區域時，但我認為今天可以公平地說，我們所有的地區都是——基礎廣泛。

All our regions are experiencing declines.

我們所有的地區都在經歷衰退。

All the regions contributed to the reduction in growth in cross-border.

所有地區都對跨境增長的減少做出了貢獻。

I admit that's true about cross-border but I -- we have seen transaction and payment volume growth in some -- in several of our emerging countries and some of our regions outside the United States.

我承認跨境確實如此，但我 - 我們已經看到一些新興國家和美國以外的一些地區的交易和支付量有所增長。

So we have some countries that are accepting (inaudible), yes.

所以我們有一些國家正在接受（聽不清），是的。

And then we -- on transactions processed, we didn't give the January number.

然後我們 - 在處理的交易中，我們沒有提供 1 月份的數字。

Our practice is to give it at the quarter, which we will do at the next earnings call and that'll be for all three months.

我們的做法是在本季度給出，我們將在下一次財報電話會議上這樣做，這將持續三個月。

All right.

好的。

Thanks, guys.

多謝你們。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Your next question comes from Don Fandetti of Citigroup.

您的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Don Fandetti。

Hi, good evening.

嗨，晚上好。

Joe, I was wondering if you could just give us an update on your debit expansion in Asia in terms of timing and your outlook there?

喬，我想知道您能否就您在亞洲的借方擴張的時間和前景向我們提供最新信息？

Well, as you know we've just begun a joint venture in Asia and we are in business.

好吧，正如你所知，我們剛剛在亞洲成立了一家合資企業，我們正在開展業務。

We have a number of clients in queue and over the next 24 to 36 months we think that that'll be a pretty viable operation that will generate more than noticeable revenues, so that's how we're starting to push debit out in Asia.

我們有許多客戶在排隊，在接下來的 24 到 36 個月內，我們認為這將是一項非常可行的操作，將產生可觀的收入，所以這就是我們開始在亞洲推出借記卡的方式。

We have debit initiatives going in other parts of the world.

我們在世界其他地區開展了借記計劃。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Your next question comes from Moshe Katri of Cowen and Company.

您的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Moshe Katri。

Hey, thanks.

嘿，謝謝。

Can you break down -- can you give a breakdown of payment and transaction growth by regions; US, Europe, Asia-Pacific?

您能否細分一下——您能否按地區細分支付和交易增長情況；美國、歐洲、亞太地區？

I think these are numbers that you gave us last quarter.

我想這些是你上個季度給我們的數字。

And then could you elaborate a bit more on your cost cutting initiatives, I guess with the exception of advertising, are we focusing more aggressively on personnel, systems, data centers, et cetera?

然後您能否詳細說明您的成本削減計劃，我想除了廣告之外，我們是否更積極地關注人員、系統、數據中心等？

Thanks.

謝謝。

I'll answer the second question, then Byron will answer the first question.

我會回答第二個問題，然後拜倫會回答第一個問題。

As it relates to the second question, what I said was that we are executing on what we said we would execute on in the IPO, and that is to deneutralize the Company and to eliminate duplications and wind up focusing on implementing projects that made sense to the business and eliminating those things that were extraneous or duplicative and that is exactly what we're doing.

至於第二個問題，我說的是我們正在執行我們所說的 IPO 中將執行的內容，那就是使公司去中立化並消除重複並最終專注於實施有意義的項目業務並消除那些無關緊要或重複的事情，而這正是我們正在做的事情。

One of the fallouts of that, of course, is that we're reducing our headcounts in certain places as it relates to this duplication.

當然，其中一個後果是我們正在減少某些地方的員工人數，因為這與這種重複有關。

But that's essentially what we're doing.

但這基本上就是我們正在做的事情。

We're putting together a Company that is effective, efficient and focused and we're doing what we should be doing and we're doing what we promised we'd be doing and it happens to coincide with a period of time where it's extremely appropriate and important that we get about the business of doing that and getting it done and that's what we're committing we will do.

我們正在組建一家高效、高效和專注的公司，我們正在做我們應該做的事情，我們正在做我們承諾要做的事情，而這恰好與一個非常時期適當且重要的是，我們了解這樣做並完成它的業務，這就是我們承諾我們將要做的事情。

With regards to transactional data by region, let me refer you to our website and we will have posted today, Jack?

關於按地區劃分的交易數據，請讓我推薦您訪問我們的網站，我們今天將發布，Jack？

Yes.

是的。

We will have posted today for the period ending September 30t, all the detailed statistics of which transaction by region are included and are available for you to access.

我們將在今天發布截至 9 月 30 日的期間，包括按地區劃分的交易的所有詳細統計數據，供您訪問。

And just to verify, did you say that average ticket prices were down 5%?

只是為了驗證一下，你是不是說平均票價下降了 5%？

Thanks.

謝謝。

No, we did not.

我們沒有。

We said -- we didn't give any specific quantitative on average tickets.

我們說——我們沒有給出任何具體的平均門票數量。

Well, Joe, Joe said it was about 5% in aggregate.

好吧，喬，喬說總共大約是 5%。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

(Operator Instructions).

（操作員說明）。

Your next question comes from Sanjay Sakhrani of KBW.

您的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Sanjay Sakhrani。

Hi, thanks.

你好謝謝。

Joe, I guess I just wanted a little more clarity on that 2010 guidance.

喬，我想我只是想更清楚地了解 2010 年的指導。

Is there a base level of revenue growth in that year that would lead you to believe that 20% EPS growth is still achievable?

那一年的收入增長是否有一個基本水平，會讓你相信 20% 的每股收益增長仍然可以實現？

We think -- we're pretty confident at this point, without knowing in absolute terms what's going to happen that the things we know that will change off of the baseline that we expect in the third and the fourth quarter will get us to where we need to go.

我們認為 - 我們在這一點上非常有信心，但不知道會發生什麼，我們所知道的將在第三和第四季度偏離我們預期的基線的事情將使我們達到我們的目標需要去。

We think it could get us back up to the 11% to 15% range.

我們認為它可以讓我們回到 11% 到 15% 的範圍。

We think it could fall short of that and still deliver the 20% earnings per share.

我們認為它可能達不到這一點，但仍能提供 20% 的每股收益。

I mean I -- you could stress test it all the way down the hill, but we're reasonably confident that we're in pretty good shape knowing what we know now.

我的意思是我——你可以在下山的路上一直對它進行壓力測試，但我們有理由相信，知道我們現在所知道的，我們的狀態非常好。

So just to build on that a moment, so we guided in the second half of the fiscal year to a probability of low single-digit revenue growth.

因此，只是在這一刻的基礎上再接再厲，因此我們在本財年下半年將收入增長的可能性定為低個位數。

As Joe mentioned earlier, what we do know is what gas prices have been and what we will anniversary in terms of gas pricing.

正如喬之前提到的，我們所知道的是天然氣價格是多少，以及我們將在天然氣價格方面週年紀念日。

We also expect to favorably anniversary the change in FX.

我們還期望在 FX 的變化週年紀念日。

We then went on to say that, in order to deliver our -- get back into our revenue guidance range that we expect that we would depend on at least some recovery in cross-border and some recovery in the US.

然後我們繼續說，為了實現我們的收入指導範圍，我們預計我們將至少依賴跨境的一些復甦和美國的一些復甦。

Joe went on to say that even if we underperform slightly -- underperformed our revenue guidance somewhat we could still hit 20% or better EPS growth.

喬接著說，即使我們的表現略遜一籌——在某種程度上低於我們的收入預期，我們仍然可以達到 20% 或更高的每股收益增長。

So that's how we've tried to frame it for you all.

這就是我們試圖為你們所有人構建它的方式。

Okay.

好的。

So we could think maybe high single digits still achievable, maybe below a little bit harder to?

所以我們可以認為也許高個位數仍然可以實現，也許低於一點點更難？

I think we've given you a pretty good frame, you should take it from there.

我認為我們給了你一個很好的框架，你應該從那裡拿走它。

Okay, fair enough.

好吧，夠公平的。

And then just on capital management, I was wondering where we were with that.

然後就資本管理而言，我想知道我們在哪裡。

I think you guys still have a fair amount of cash.

我認為你們仍然有相當數量的現金。

Any intentions of instituting another share repurchase above and beyond the $1.1 billion?

是否有意在 11 億美元之外再進行一次股票回購？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good question.

好問題。

So as I mentioned in earlier in the remarks, we did $1.1 billion of share repurchase in the month of December.

因此，正如我在前面的評論中提到的，我們在 12 月份進行了 11 億美元的股票回購。

And we have ample opportunity to go back to our board to seek additional authorizations at a time and an amount that management feels appropriate.

我們有充足的機會回到我們的董事會，一次尋求額外的授權，以及管理層認為合適的數額。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝你。

Stacy, we probably have time for one more question.

斯泰西，我們可能還有時間再問一個問題。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Then your next question comes from Bob Napoli of Piper Jaffray.

那麼您的下一個問題來自 Piper Jaffray 的 Bob Napoli。

Thank you, good afternoon.

謝謝，下午好。

Just want to make sure I -- the foreign exchange effect on revenue, I think can you give a little more -- I think you said in the back half of the year it's like only 3%, what is --?

只是想確定我——外匯對收入的影響，我想你能多給一點——我想你在下半年說只有3%，什麼是——？

In the back half of the year, we said that it was three full percentage points of impact on growth.

下半年，我們說對增長的影響是整整三個百分點。

That's on the Company's entire growth rate.

這是公司的整體增長率。

So -- and that's currently the ballpark that's we're contemplating.

所以 - 這就是我們目前正在考慮的球場。

And I guess the effect on revenue for -- on a run -- the change in currencies, the dramatic change we saw over the last 60, 90 days, the net effect of that is only 300 basis points on the growth rate?

我猜對收入的影響——在運行中——貨幣的變化，我們在過去 60 天、90 天看到的巨大變化，其淨效應對增長率只有 300 個基點？

On the year-over-year growth rate.

關於同比增長率。

Okay.

好的。

And the effect on profitability?

以及對盈利能力的影響？

In the way that we hedge, we hedge the economic exposure, so revenue less expenses is an income exposure.

以我們對沖的方式，我們對沖經濟風險，因此收入減去費用就是收入風險。

We hedge the income, so that's -- from an economic standpoint that's hedged.

我們對沖收入，所以這是 - 從對沖的經濟角度來看。

When we gave the guidance for 20% or better EPS growth that's on an as-reported basis, so the foreign exchange impacts are fully contemplated in that guidance.

當我們在報告的基礎上給出 20% 或更好的每股收益增長的指導時，因此該指導中充分考慮了外匯影響。

Okay.

好的。

And fuel -- I want to make sure I heard this you right, you said fuel was -- before the decline in fuel prices was 10% of all spending on your card?

還有燃料——我想確保我沒聽錯，你說燃料是——在燃料價格下降佔您卡上所有支出的 10% 之前？

That's higher than I'd heard from other --

這比我從其他人那裡聽到的要高——

About -- Joe said about 10% in the US.

關於——喬說在美國大約有 10%。

Okay.

好的。

The US.

美國。

And just last question, on the -- there was a major security breach, I guess, in the industry here in the US and I think that there is -- the risks of security breaches in the industry are going up.

最後一個問題，我想，在美國這裡的行業中存在重大安全漏洞，我認為存在 - 行業中的安全漏洞風險正在上升。

I was wondering if you could comment on that and the -- how concerned you are about that and what economic effects you think the security breach that is out there could have on various players in the industry?

我想知道您是否可以對此發表評論，以及您對此的擔憂程度以及您認為存在的安全漏洞可能對該行業的各個參與者產生什麼經濟影響？

Obviously we're aware of it and obviously we're involved in the correction of it and obviously we're concerned that it happened.

顯然我們意識到了這一點，顯然我們參與了糾正它，顯然我們擔心它發生了。

We believe that we have made a considerable amount of progress through PCI -- for lack of a better term -- to mitigate the possibility that these things happen.

我們相信我們已經通過 PCI 取得了相當大的進展——因為沒有更好的術語——以減少這些事情發生的可能性。

There have been some that have occurred but not -- but frankly, not many.

已經發生了一些，但沒有發生——但坦率地說，並不多。

Now, having said that, to us, one of the most important things is that from -- in that regard we have promised consumers that they will never be financially liable for anything like this occurring to them.

現在，話雖如此，對我們來說，最重要的事情之一是——在這方面，我們已經向消費者保證，他們永遠不會對發生在他們身上的此類事情承擔經濟責任。

That is totally intact and consumers can feel comfortable using Visa cards and comfortable in the notion that no security breach will ever financially affect them and I think that is the most important thing.

這是完全完好的，消費者可以放心使用 Visa 卡，並且認為安全漏洞不會對他們造成財務影響，我認為這是最重要的事情。

We have worked on making sure that nobody in the process gets hurt, but our promise is to the consumer and the confidence is directed at the consumer and I'm happy to say that that continues to be 100% effective.

我們一直在努力確保過程中沒有人受到傷害，但我們的承諾是對消費者的，信心是針對消費者的，我很高興地說這仍然是 100% 有效的。

Thank you, Joe.

謝謝你，喬。

And thank you all very much.

非常感謝大家。

Thank you, Stacy.

謝謝你，斯泰西。

And if anybody has any follow-up questions feel free to give investor relations a call.

如果有人有任何後續問題，請隨時致電投資者關係部。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

This concludes today's conference.

今天的會議到此結束。

You may disconnect at this time.

此時您可以斷開連接。

Thank you for joining,

感謝您的加入，