Universal Corp (UVV) 2013 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Kim, and I will be your Conference Operator today. At this time I would like to welcome everyone to the Universal Corporation third quarter fiscal year 2013 results conference call. (Operator Instructions) Thank you.

I would now like to introduce our host, Candace Formacek, Vice President and Treasurer. You may begin your conference.

Thank you, Kim, and thank you for joining us on our call today. George Freeman, our Chairman, President and CEO, and David Moore, our Chief Financial Officer, are here with me today. They will join me in answering questions after these brief remarks.

This call is being webcast live and will be available on our website and on telephone taped replay. It will remain on our website through May 5th, 2013. If you are listening to this call after that date or if you are reading a transcription we have not authorized such recording or transcription. It has been made available to you without our permission, review, or approval. We take no responsibility for such presentation. Any transcription inaccuracies or omissions or failure to present available updates are the responsibility of the party who is providing it to you.

Before I begin to discuss our results, I caution you that we will be making forward-looking statements that are based on our current knowledge and some assumptions about the future. For information on some of the factors that can affect our estimates I urge you to read our 10-K for the year ended March 31st, 2012, as well as the 10-Q for the third fiscal quarter of 2013, which was filed today.

The factors that can affect our estimates include such things as customer mandated timing of shipments, weather conditions, political and economic environment, changes in currency, industry consolidation and evolution, and changes in market structure or sources. Finally, some of the information I have for you today is based on unaudited allocations and is subject to reclassification.

Net income for the nine months ended December 31, 2012 was $106.6 million or $3.75 per diluted share and includes restructuring charges of $0.05 per share. Last year's net income for the same period was $66.3 million or $2.34 per diluted share. The prior year nine-month result reflected the net effect of several unusual items, which amounted to a net charge of $1.39 per share.

Net income of $35.5 million or $1.25 per diluted share for the third fiscal quarter was down compared with net income for the prior year's third quarter of $58.5 million or $2.06 per diluted share, which included a net benefit from unusual items of $0.25 per share.

Our total segment operating income for the nine months ended December 31, 2012 of $185.9 million increased $11.3 million over the prior year as improved results in the Other Regions and Other Tobacco Operations segments were partly offset by a decline in the North America segment.

Segment operating income for the quarter ended December 31, 2012 declined by 24% to $63.3 million compared with the prior year on lower volumes and margins in all segments.

As we have similarly mentioned in the previous two quarters, shipment timing and lower crop sizes remain as key factors influencing the year-over-year comparisons of our quarter and nine months' results.

To review these factors in more detail, in the Other Regions segment operating income for the first nine months of the year increased by about 15% to $168.1 million. Those results remain heavily influenced by the higher sales volumes in South America and Africa, mostly due to carryover shipments from last year's large crop. Shipment timing was also a factor for the nine months' results, given accelerated shipments this year compared to later deliveries last year.

Conversely, the operating results for this segment in the third fiscal quarter were down by about 15% to $59.3 million compared to the prior year. Results were lower for the quarter mainly on reduced volumes and higher unit costs from smaller crops and a less favorable product mix in some margins.

In the North America segment operating income of $9.8 million declined by $14.1 million for the nine months compared to the same period in the prior year. Lower results were mainly attributed to a combination of lower shipment volumes and fewer old crop trading and carryover sales this year.

Operating results for the Other Tobacco Operations segment improved for the nine months ended December 31, 2012 versus last year, primarily due to continued recovery in our dark tobacco business.

Selling, general and administrative costs were $14.6 million lower for the nine months ended December 31, 2012 compared to the prior year. That reduction included benefits from lower provisions for suppliers and net currency remeasurement and exchange gains.

In summary, we are pleased with our results so far this year, made possible by the hard work and depth of local market knowledge from our teams on the ground around the world. Despite our success thus far we still face challenges for the remainder of the fiscal year, and we anticipate lower shipments in the fourth quarter.

Last year we began shipping tobacco later compared to the current year and crops were larger. These factors caused volumes to be skewed toward the second half of last year. Larger volumes of uncommitted inventories were also available for sale last year, and we have sold a significant amount of those stocks. Our uncommitted stocks were only 10% of total inventory at December 31, 2012 and remain at very low levels.

On a positive note sales of uncommitted inventories, smaller crops, and earlier shipments in the current year have reduced our working capital requirements and provided strong cash generation through the third quarter of this fiscal year. We returned more than $50 million to shareholders in the nine months ended December 31, 2012 through dividends and share repurchases and have a strong balance sheet position to support the requirements of the upcoming crop cycle. Our improved financial position will serve us well, as we expect to return to more normal crop sizes in the next fiscal year.

At this time we're available to take your questions.

(Operator Instructions)

Your first question comes from Ann Gurkin.

Good afternoon.

Hello.

Hi, Ann.

I want to start with volume, a discussion on volume, not surprising it's weaker this quarter given the timing year-to-date and the tough comp of last year, but is the volume tracking in line with your internal expectations? And as you look into the fourth quarter how does that volume seem to be tracking versus internal expectations?

Yes, Ann, I think based on what we had said previously this was not an unexpected result for the quarter.

As we look into the fourth quarter how does that volume look?

It's about what we expect -- I suspect -- I mean so far it's proceeding as we expect.

And, as we said, we expect our volumes to be down for the fourth quarter.

So it's not a loss of market share or a loss of business, it's reflecting more kind of comp and timing and -- I'm sorry?

That's right.

Timing and crop size.

Yes.

Okay, perfect. And then I guess I was surprised with the loss in the Other Tobacco segment, can you comment at all on that, and how should we think about that business in the fourth quarter?

I'm sorry, do you mean the Other Tobacco Operations?

Yes.

Okay, that was actually up for the nine-month period.

Yes, but the quarter it was down.

Yes, for the quarter that's down. Part of that is on timing of shipments that are delayed into the fourth quarter from our oriental tobacco business.

So it's likely to turn a profit then in fourth quarter?

I don't think we're going to give sort of forward guidance on that, but there was a timing factor that affected this quarter.

Okay, and then tax rate for the year, David, any help there?

It's pretty much going to be the same as it is for the nine months.

Okay.

We picked up a few benefits on currency affects on deferred foreign income taxes, so it's a little bit lower than it typically would be.

Okay, great. And then use of your cash build on the balance sheet? I ask this I think every quarter, what is your outlook for share repurchase, any likelihood you'd increase your pace of share repurchase as we look out the next six to nine months?

Well, Ann, I would say that our cash usage is kind of comparable in terms of our strategy for keeping our balance sheet strong, also looking at investment opportunities for our business, as well as returning to shareholders through share repurchase and dividend.

As a reminder, we do see some larger crops and possibly larger pricing in the coming year, so we will continue to use the cash that we have on hand to put back into our working capital in the next year.

Okay, and then --

Cash is a lot higher than it would have been had these crops not been a bit short and if the timing hadn't of come off so quickly in terms of processing and shipment.

-- and then how does the crop look in Brazil right now?

It's early days but it's sort of looking good to average, better than last year, but it's still a bit early.

Okay.

But, yes, so far, so good.

Great, great, thank you, all.

Thank you, Ann.

(Operator Instructions)

Your next question comes from [Bryan Hunt].

Good afternoon.

Hello.

Hi, Bryan.

Could you, you know, you mentioned you expect the crop size to be bigger next year, is there any way you can characterize plantings on burley and flue-cured and maybe the growth you expect for the upcoming crop year?

Yes, Bryan, we actually have posted this on our website, as well, this afternoon if you want to look there for a bit more detail. In total our estimates are showing the upcoming crop for flue-cured, this is excluding China, to be up about 6%, and on the burley side the number is a bit higher because of the particularly low levels last year, up about 28% worldwide.

Okay, and do you believe that brings the industry back into balance or is that -- or are those crop sizes get us in an oversupplied situation again?

No, it's not an oversupply. I mean I think burley is still tight. I think flue-cured quality, flue-cured is tight. I think at least in regards to Africa it's been very rainy and, again, these are projections but they could come down a little bit. So I think it's sort of they're trending towards balance, but not an oversupply.

And you all mentioned a larger crop and that you expect pricing to be up next year, as well. With the larger crop and, you know, what's the drivers behind that, in your opinion, why would pricing be up with 6% and a 28% increase in flu and burley?

I don't recall saying that we thought pricing was up. I think we were saying pricing improved --

Improved in the third quarter relative to last year.

-- in the nine months.

Yes.

Visa-vis fiscal '12, but --

Is there any way we can get the court reporter to go back to the transcript? Come on, I was joking, I thought I heard you say a larger crop and larger comp anticipated for the upcoming year and higher pricing, but do you have any understanding or anticipation of where pricing is going to be in the upcoming year or is that just too far out in the future at this point?

I think that's probably too far out in the future. I mean a lot is going to depend on the level of farmer pricing, and we typically pass that through to the customer as opposed to changing the ultimate selling prices.

Got you. And with the tight supplies, both on burley and flu cured, do you anticipate that or do you believe that inventories at the cigarette companies are below average for what they usually try to manage to?

I think that we can state that our uncommitted inventories are generally lower, and those are sort of the inventory levels that are at risk, and of course a smaller crop this year means that our inventory values are going to be lower for that reason, as well.

Okay, and then my last question, you are sitting on a lot of cash and it looks like you have some sizable maturities in the next 12 months, you know, what are your plans for refinancing those maturities and, or permanently reducing them?

Well, we're not ready to disclose that right now, but obviously that's something that we're taking a look at and weighing our various options.

I appreciate your time and best of luck.

Thank you.

Thank you, Bryan.

(Operator Instructions)

There are no further questions at this time.

Thank you very much, Kim, and we appreciate everyone joining us.

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.