普登 (UNM) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the Unum Group 1Q 2023 Earnings Results and Conference Call. My name is Elliot, and I'll be coordinating your call today. (Operator Instructions) I'll now hand over to Matt Royal, Head of Investor Relations. Floor is yours. Please go ahead.

您好，歡迎來到 Unum Group 2023 年第一季度收益結果和電話會議。我叫 Elliot，今天我將負責協調您的來電。 （操作員說明）我現在將交給投資者關係主管 Matt Royal。地板是你的。請繼續。

Great. Thank you, Elliot. Good morning, and welcome to the First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call for Unum Group. Our remarks today will include forward-looking statements, which are statements that are not of current or historical fact. As a result, actual results might differ materially from results suggested by these forward-looking statements. Information concerning factors that could cause results to differ appears in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, and are also located in the sections titled Cautionary Statement -- regarding Forward-Looking Statements and Risk Factors in our annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2022.

偉大的。謝謝你，埃利奧特。早上好，歡迎來到 Unum Group 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議。我們今天的評論將包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述不屬於當前或歷史事實。因此，實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述所暗示的結果存在重大差異。有關可能導致結果不同的因素的信息出現在我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中，並且也位於標題為“警告聲明”的部分中——關於我們 10-K 表格年度報告中的前瞻性聲明和風險因素截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日的財政年度。

Our SEC filings can be found in the Investors section of our website at www.unum.com. I remind you that the statements in today's call speak only as of the date they are made. And we undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. A presentation of the most directly comparable GAAP measures and reconciliations that may be non-GAAP financial measures included in today's presentation can be found in our statistical supplement on our website in the Investors section. Results discussed in today's call reflect the first quarter following the company's adoption of the long-duration targeted improvement accounting pronouncement or LDTI. Unless otherwise noted, all comparisons to historical results are based on recast financials, which we furnished in March of this year and can be found in the Investors section of our website.

我們的 SEC 文件可以在我們網站 www.unum.com 的投資者部分找到。我提醒您，今天電話會議中的陳述僅在發表之日有效。我們不承擔公開更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。在我們網站的“投資者”部分的統計補充中，可以找到今天演示文稿中包含的最直接可比的 GAAP 措施和調節可能是非 GAAP 財務措施的介紹。今天電話會議中討論的結果反映了公司採用長期目標改進會計公告或 LDTI 後的第一季度。除非另有說明，否則與歷史結果的所有比較均基於我們今年 3 月提供的重鑄財務數據，可以在我們網站的投資者部分找到。

As we've described, LDTI applies only to GAAP-based based financial statements and has no economic statutory accounting or cash flow impacts to the business. Yesterday afternoon, Unum reported first quarter 2023 net income of $358.3 million or $1.80 per diluted common share, an increase from $240.4 million or $1.18 per diluted common share in the first quarter of 2022. Net income for the first quarter of 2023 included the after-tax amortization of the cost of reinsurance of $8.7 million or $0.04 per diluted common share, the after-tax impact of non-contemporaneous reinsurance of $5.7 million or $0.03 per diluted common share and a net after-tax investment gain on the company's investment portfolio of $0.1 million or a de minimis amount of per diluted common share.

正如我們所描述的，LDTI 僅適用於基於 GAAP 的財務報表，對企業沒有經濟法定會計或現金流量影響。昨天下午，Unum 公佈 2023 年第一季度淨收入為 3.583 億美元或每股稀釋普通股 1.80 美元，高於 2022 年第一季度的 2.404 億美元或每股稀釋普通股 1.18 美元。2023 年第一季度的淨收入包括之後的再保險成本的稅收攤銷為 870 萬美元或每股稀釋普通股 0.04 美元，非同期再保險的稅後影響為 570 萬美元或每股稀釋普通股 0.03 美元以及公司投資組合的稅後淨投資收益10 萬美元或每股攤薄普通股的最低金額。

Net income in the first quarter of 2022 included the after-tax amortization of the cost of reinsurance of $10.6 million or $0.05 per diluted common share. The after-tax impact of non-contemporaneous reinsurance of $9.8 million or $0.05 per diluted common share and a after-tax investment loss on the company's investment portfolio of $10.6 million or $0.05 per diluted common share. Excluding these items, after-tax adjusted operating income in the first quarter of 2023 was $372.6 million or $1.87 per diluted common share, an increase from $271.4 million or $1.33 per diluted common share in the year ago quarter.

2022 年第一季度的淨收入包括 1060 萬美元的再保險成本稅後攤銷或每股攤薄普通股 0.05 美元。非同期再保險的稅後影響為 980 萬美元或每股稀釋普通股 0.05 美元，公司投資組合的稅後投資損失為 1060 萬美元或每股稀釋普通股 0.05 美元。不包括這些項目，2023 年第一季度稅後調整後營業收入為 3.726 億美元或每股稀釋普通股 1.87 美元，高於去年同期的 2.714 億美元或每股稀釋普通股 1.33 美元。

Participating in this morning's conference call are Unum's President and CEO, Rick McKenney; Chief Financial Officer, Steve Zabel; Chief Operating Officer, Mike Simonds; as well as Mark Till, who heads our Unum International business; and Tim Arnold, who heads our Colonial Life and Voluntary Benefits lines. Now I'll turn to Rick for his opening comments.

參加今天上午電話會議的有 Unum 總裁兼首席執行官 Rick McKenney；首席財務官 Steve Zabel；首席運營官邁克·西蒙茲；以及領導我們的 Unum 國際業務的 Mark Till；和蒂姆·阿諾德 (Tim Arnold)，他是我們殖民地生活和自願福利熱線的負責人。現在我將請 Rick 發表開場白。

Great. Thank you, Matt. We are pleased to be with you this morning. As we look to the results of the first quarter, I would like to place that in the context of a company that continues on a positive trend, serving more than 180,000 employers and 45 million people across our markets. The environment remains uniquely positive for us on multiple fronts as macroeconomic factors at play break favorably for our business. To highlight, higher interest rates, wage inflation and a continuing tight labor market are all positives.

偉大的。謝謝你，馬特。我們很高興今天早上和你們在一起。在我們展望第一季度的結果時，我想將其置於一家繼續保持積極趨勢的公司的背景下，為我們市場中超過 180,000 名雇主和 4500 萬人提供服務。由於宏觀經濟因素對我們的業務有利，環境在多個方面對我們來說仍然是獨一無二的積極因素。需要強調的是，更高的利率、工資上漲和持續緊張的勞動力市場都是積極的。

Also, when we look to more current events around credit and balance sheet management, our credit portfolio has performed very well and we have ample liquidity across our franchise, compounded by the illiquid nature of our policies. It's through that positive environmental lens that I'd point you to our first quarter results, which were a strong start to 2023. After-tax operating earnings for the quarter were $372.6 million, an increase of 37% from the same time last year.

此外，當我們關注有關信貸和資產負債表管理的更多時事時，我們的信貸組合表現非常好，我們的特許經營權擁有充足的流動性，加上我們政策的非流動性。正是通過這種積極的環境視角，我會向您指出我們第一季度的業績，這是到 2023 年的一個良好開端。本季度的稅後營業收入為 3.726 億美元，比去年同期增長 37%。

Double-digit sales growth across our core operations and earned premium growth near 4% on a constant currency basis highlights the ongoing momentum of our franchise. As a result, we are incorporating the first quarter results and expectations of continued good performance of our Group Disability business into our view for the full year 2023. This pushes our 2023 EPS growth expectations to be in the range of 20% to 25% over last year's historically reported results and 10% to 15% over our recasted 2022 results under LDTI, which as a reference point was $6.75.

我們核心業務的兩位數銷售額增長和近 4% 的已賺保費增長率（按固定匯率計算）凸顯了我們特許經營業務的持續發展勢頭。因此，我們將第一季度的業績和對集團殘疾業務持續良好表現的預期納入了我們對 2023 年全年的預期。這推動我們對 2023 年每股收益增長的預期在 20% 至 25% 的範圍內去年的歷史報告結果，比我們根據 LDTI 重鑄的 2022 年結果高出 10% 至 15%，作為參考點為 6.75 美元。

Across our business, the need for what we do has never been more evident, and the breadth of our benefit offerings and the differentiation of our digital capabilities have positioned us well to continue our growth trajectory. A major part of our success story is our deep connections with employers and customers. Our nearly 11,000 employees are focused not only on providing a high-quality experience, but on building meaningful relationships with the individuals we help and the companies we serve. Our sales results for the quarter show that this approach continues to resonate with customers.

在我們的業務中，對我們所做工作的需求從未如此明顯，我們提供的福利產品的廣度和我們數字能力的差異化使我們能夠很好地繼續我們的增長軌跡。我們成功故事的一個主要部分是我們與雇主和客戶的深厚聯繫。我們近 11,000 名員工不僅專注於提供高質量的體驗，還專注於與我們幫助的個人和我們服務的公司建立有意義的關係。我們本季度的銷售結果表明，這種方法繼續引起客戶的共鳴。

Across our core operations, sales were up nearly 19% on a constant currency basis. Growth in our group lines was particularly strong as Unum US saw a 22.5% jump and our international business was up nearly 47% in constant currency. Persistency well mix remained within our expectations across our lines and along with our strong sales results, drove higher premiums. For Unum US, a key driver of our long-term growth is our new total leave offering. This is a transformational update to our absence management business, which we have been in for the last 2 decades. We're also seeing healthy gains through HR Connect as the ability to deeply integrate our benefits into our clients' talent management systems, and it continues to be a differentiator for us. Internationally, our business fully supports our growth picture with some very strong results.

在我們的核心業務中，銷售額按固定匯率計算增長了近 19%。由於 Unum US 增長了 22.5%，而我們的國際業務按固定匯率計算增長了近 47%，因此我們的集團業務增長尤為強勁。持久性良好的組合仍然在我們對整個產品線的預期之內，加上我們強勁的銷售業績，推動了更高的保費。對於 Unum US，我們長期增長的一個關鍵驅動力是我們新的全休假計劃。這是對我們在過去 2 年中一直從事的缺勤管理業務的轉型升級。我們還通過 HR Connect 看到了健康的收益，因為它能夠將我們的福利深入整合到客戶的人才管理系統中，並且它繼續成為我們的差異化因素。在國際上，我們的業務完全支持我們的增長前景，並取得了一些非常強勁的成果。

Our businesses in the U.K. and Poland have delivered good top line growth over the last several years, in fact. And as a result, premium levels are now more than 30% higher than the first quarter of 2019 on a constant currency basis, showing good sustained top line not only in this period, but over the last several years.

事實上，我們在英國和波蘭的業務在過去幾年中實現了良好的收入增長。因此，按固定匯率計算，保費水平現在比 2019 年第一季度高出 30% 以上，不僅在這一時期，而且在過去幾年都顯示出良好的持續收入。

And turning to Colonial Life, as articulated at our outlook meeting earlier this year, the pace of growth has been slower for the segment. This is evidenced by a relatively flat premiums in the first quarter. Sales growth was also a more modest 2.7% this quarter. But make no mistake, we think Colonial Life is a tremendous franchise. These are solid results off of a good year-ago quarter, and we're encouraged by some early successes in key initiatives at Colonial Life that we believe will drive growth as we move through 2023.

轉向 Colonial Life，正如我們在今年早些時候的展望會議上所闡述的那樣，該部門的增長速度已經放緩。第一季度相對平穩的保費證明了這一點。本季度的銷售額增長也較為溫和，為 2.7%。但別搞錯了，我們認為殖民地生活是一個巨大的特許經營權。這些是去年同期的良好業績，我們對 Colonial Life 關鍵舉措的一些早期成功感到鼓舞，我們相信這些舉措將在我們走過 2023 年時推動增長。

As an example, we launched Gather, our new technology platform for small business, which provides opportunity for us as we look to enhance benefits enrollment and administration. We have also introduced an expanded portfolio available to our Colonial Life agents to offer a more comprehensive set of products to meet the needs of small business.

例如，我們推出了 Gather，這是我們面向小型企業的新技術平台，它為我們提供了機會，因為我們希望加強福利登記和管理。我們還為我們的 Colonial Life 代理商推出了擴展的產品組合，以提供更全面的產品組合來滿足小型企業的需求。

Looking to the company-wide product returns, we continue to see attractive margins as our multiyear discipline around pricing has driven favorable benefit ratios across our businesses. On a consolidated basis, ROE was a healthy 13%, fueled by over 20% return in our core operations. Coupled with our strong top line results, as I referenced earlier, before tax operating earnings and return on equity across our core operations were at or above the top end of our outlook ranges. And from a market perspective, while always an area for attention for us, the overall stress that we've seen across financial services has caused heightened awareness of management of balance sheets for both liquidity and asset quality.

展望全公司的產品回報，我們繼續看到有吸引力的利潤率，因為我們多年來對定價的紀律推動了我們業務的有利效益比。在合併的基礎上，在我們核心業務超過 20% 的回報率的推動下，ROE 達到了 13% 的健康水平。正如我之前提到的，加上我們強勁的營收結果，我們核心業務的稅前營業收入和股本回報率達到或高於我們預期範圍的上限。從市場的角度來看，雖然一直是我們關注的領域，但我們在金融服務領域看到的整體壓力已經引起了人們對流動性和資產質量資產負債表管理意識的提高。

These are areas we have managed well, thanks to the prudent approach of our team and our focus on long-term returns. We have avoided exposure to sectors that have been in the news of late, which have allowed us to remain focused on improving our book yield and mitigate balance sheet risks through our ongoing hedging program, activities that enable us to generate predictable investment returns that our businesses and ultimately, our customers count on.

由於我們團隊的審慎做法和我們對長期回報的關注，我們在這些領域做得很好。我們避免接觸最近出現在新聞中的行業，這使我們能夠繼續專注於提高我們的賬面收益率並通過我們正在進行的對沖計劃降低資產負債表風險，這些活動使我們能夠產生可預測的投資回報我們的業務最終，我們的客戶會信賴我們。

The results across the board have solidified our strong capital position that gives us ongoing financial flexibility. We have maintained capital metrics that are historically among our highest levels. And our performance in the first quarter provides additive strength as we have begun the process to accelerate funding of the premium deficiency reserve, which we will complete by the end of the year. While doing so, we will continue to reinvest heavily in our business. Repurchase our shares at an increasing rate in the second half of the year and contemplated an increase in our dividend in the coming weeks.

全面的結果鞏固了我們強大的資本狀況，為我們提供了持續的財務靈活性。我們一直保持著歷史上最高水平的資本指標。我們在第一季度的表現提供了額外的優勢，因為我們已經開始加速為保費不足準備金提供資金的過程，我們將在今年年底完成。在這樣做的同時，我們將繼續對我們的業務進行大量再投資。在今年下半年以更高的速度回購我們的股票，併計劃在未來幾週內增加股息。

I'm proud of what we've accomplished as we extend the momentum, we've seen into 2023. Our purpose drives us to reach more people, a goal that is aided by our digital-first approach and favorable operating environment as we advance our market-leading positions. Before I turn it over to Steve to provide more details about our results, I would note that they are the first under LDTI, as Matt referenced, and I appreciate the effort of our team preparing us for this change. The results under this basis as well as on a statutory basis reflect the strong underlying fundamentals in our business. Steve?

我為我們擴大勢頭所取得的成就感到自豪，我們已經看到了 2023 年。我們的目標驅使我們接觸更多的人，我們的數字優先方法和有利的運營環境有助於實現這一目標我們的市場領先地位。在我將其交給 Steve 以提供有關我們結果的更多詳細信息之前，我會注意到它們是 LDTI 下的第一個，正如 Matt 所引用的那樣，我感謝我們的團隊為這一變化做好準備所付出的努力。在此基礎上以及在法定基礎上的結果反映了我們業務的強大基礎。史蒂夫？

Great. Thank you, Rick, and good morning, everyone. As Rick described, the first quarter was a very good quarter for the company as we benefited from strong operating performance in many parts of our business, including group disability where trends are supporting our full year after-tax adjusted operating EPS outlook increase. Sales were strong on a constant currency basis, with consolidated sales growth of 18.9% across our core operations, highlighted by 22.5% growth in Unum U.S. and 47% for Unum International.

偉大的。謝謝你，里克，大家早上好。正如里克所描述的那樣，第一季度對公司來說是一個非常好的季度，因為我們受益於我們業務的許多部分的強勁經營業績，包括集團殘疾，趨勢支持我們全年稅後調整後經營每股收益預期的增長。按固定匯率計算，銷售額強勁，我們核心業務的綜合銷售額增長 18.9%，其中 Unum 美國增長 22.5%，Unum 國際增長 47%。

Core operations premium growth of 3.9% in the first quarter on a constant currency basis was higher than anticipated at this point in the year. Despite some variation across lines, persistency showed nice stability and improvement in areas where our technology has the opportunity to drive an excellent customer experience, such as our growing leave business.

按固定匯率計算，第一季度核心業務保費增長 3.9%，高於今年此時的預期。儘管各行之間存在一些差異，但在我們的技術有機會推動卓越客戶體驗的領域（例如我們不斷增長的休假業務），持久性顯示出良好的穩定性和改進。

Let's review our quarterly operating results across the segments, beginning with Unum US. Adjusted operating income in the Unum US segment increased to $312.5 million in the first quarter of 2023, compared to $168.3 million in the first quarter of 2022. Results across all product lines improved year-over-year with our group products seeing the biggest improvement driven by claim trends in group disability and the shift from a pandemic to an endemic COVID environment for Group Life and AD&D.

讓我們從 Unum US 開始，回顧一下我們各個部門的季度經營業績。 Unum 美國分部的調整後營業收入在 2023 年第一季度增至 3.125 億美元，而 2022 年第一季度為 1.683 億美元。所有產品線的業績均同比改善，其中我們集團產品的改善幅度最大通過群體殘疾的索賠趨勢以及群體人壽和 AD&D 從大流行到地方性 COVID 環境的轉變。

The group disability line reported another robust quarter with adjusted operating income of $145.7 million compared to $62.8 million in the first quarter of 2022 with the increase driven by improved incidents, strong recoveries and a higher discount rate on new claims. These drivers contributed to a benefit ratio of 60% for the first quarter. We are very pleased with how this block is performing and have now experienced 4 consecutive quarters of benefit results below our historical expected range.

集團傷殘險業務報告了另一個強勁的季度，調整後營業收入為 1.457 億美元，而 2022 年第一季度為 6280 萬美元，增長的原因是事故改善、恢復強勁和新索賠貼現率更高。這些驅動因素使第一季度的收益比率達到 60%。我們對該區塊的表現感到非常滿意，現在已經連續 4 個季度的收益結果低於我們的歷史預期範圍。

A key contributor to serving our clients is helping them get back to work and this recent experience continues to demonstrate that we are in an extremely supportive return to work environment. Given this, we now expect the group disability benefit ratio to sustain in the low 60s for the remainder of 2023. Results for Unum U.S. Group Life and AD&D rebounded from the first quarter of last year. with adjusted operating income of $40.1 million for the first quarter of 2023 compared to a loss of $10.6 million in the same period a year ago. The benefit ratio decreased to 75%, compared to 87.9% in the first quarter of 2022 as COVID-related mortality decreased significantly to endemic levels.

為我們的客戶提供服務的一個關鍵因素是幫助他們重返工作崗位，而最近的經歷繼續表明，我們正處於一個非常支持重返工作崗位的環境中。鑑於此，我們現在預計，在 2023 年剩餘時間內，團體傷殘福利比率將維持在 60 年代的低位。Unum U.S. Group Life 和 AD&D 的業績較去年第一季度有所反彈。 2023 年第一季度調整後營業收入為 4010 萬美元，而去年同期為虧損 1060 萬美元。與 2022 年第一季度的 87.9% 相比，受益率下降至 75%，因為與 COVID 相關的死亡率顯著下降至流行水平。

Adjusted operating earnings for the Unum US supplemental and voluntary lines in the first quarter were $126.7 million, an increase from $116.1 million in the first quarter of 2022. The increase is driven by strong underlying benefits experienced in both the individual disability and the voluntary benefits lines. Turning to premium trends and drivers, natural growth, a tailwind for our group products continued to contribute to strong year-over-year premium growth and supported the growth of 4.3% in Unum US. Sales trends for Unum US were also solid, with sales increasing 22.5% year-over-year in the first quarter. Total group persistency of 89.1% for the first quarter remained generally stable, with mixed results within our supplemental and voluntary lines.

第一季度 Unum US 補充和自願福利的調整後營業收入為 1.267 億美元，高於 2022 年第一季度的 1.161 億美元。這一增長是由個人殘疾和自願福利方面強大的潛在福利推動的.轉向保費趨勢和驅動因素，自然增長，我們集團產品的順風繼續推動保費同比強勁增長，並支持 Unum US 增長 4.3%。 Unum US 的銷售趨勢也很穩健，第一季度銷售額同比增長 22.5%。第一季度 89.1% 的總體持續性總體保持穩定，在我們的補充和自願線路中結果喜憂參半。

Moving to Unum International. The segment experienced exceptional overall earnings results with adjusted operating income for the first quarter, increasing to $38.4 million from $25.9 million in the first quarter of 2022. Adjusted operating income for the Unum U.K. business improved in the first quarter to GBP 31 million compared to GBP 18.6 million in the first quarter of 2022. The reported benefit ratio for Unum UK decreased to 68.5% in the first quarter compared to 81.2% in the same period a year ago. You may recall a portion of our policies in the U.K. have an inflation rider, which are backed by inflation-link gilts.

搬到 Unum 國際。該部門第一季度的調整後營業收入表現出色，從 2022 年第一季度的 2590 萬美元增至 3840 萬美元。Unum UK 業務的調整後營業收入在第一季度增加至 3100 萬英鎊，高於英鎊2022 年第一季度為 1860 萬。第一季度 Unum UK 報告的收益比率從去年同期的 81.2% 降至 68.5%。您可能還記得我們在英國的部分保單有通貨膨脹騎手，由與通貨膨脹掛鉤的金邊債券支持。

The inflation-linked benefits are capped, but the income we receive from the linked yields is not, which benefits earnings levels in periods of very high inflation. When removing direct inflationary impacts, Unum UK adjusted operating income was in the GBP mid-20 million range, reflecting strong underlying performance.

與通脹掛鉤的收益有上限，但我們從掛鉤收益率中獲得的收入沒有上限，這有利於高通脹時期的收入水平。剔除直接通脹影響後，Unum UK 調整後營業收入在 2000 萬英鎊左右，反映出強勁的基本業績。

On a dollar basis, premium income for our Unum International business segment increased slightly on a year-over-year basis, but was dampened by exchange rate movements. Premiums continue to show strong growth on a local currency basis. Unum U.K. generated premium growth of 9.1% on a year-over-year basis in the first quarter, while our Poland operation grew 19%. Both businesses continued to generate positive levels of year-over-year sales growth with Unum UK up 37.8% and Unum Poland sales up nearly doubled in local currency.

按美元計算，我們 Unum 國際業務部門的保費收入同比略有增長，但受到匯率變動的抑制。按當地貨幣計算，保費繼續呈現強勁增長。 Unum U.K 第一季度保費同比增長 9.1%，而我們的波蘭業務增長 19%。這兩項業務繼續產生積極的同比銷售額增長，Unum UK 增長 37.8%，Unum Poland 銷售額以當地貨幣計算增長近一倍。

Next, adjusted operating income for the Colonial Life segment was $93.9 million in the first quarter compared to $102.9 million in the first quarter of 2022, with the decrease driven by higher total expenses. The benefit ratio of 53% compares to 53.2% in the year ago period and though improved, was higher than our expectations due to volatility in the cancer and critical illness block which was partially offset by improving life experience.

接下來，第一季度 Colonial Life 部門的調整後營業收入為 9390 萬美元，而 2022 年第一季度為 1.029 億美元，下降的原因是總費用增加。受益率為 53%，去年同期為 53.2%，雖然有所改善，但仍高於我們的預期，原因是癌症和重大疾病塊的波動性被改善的生活體驗部分抵消了。

Premium income of $429.5 million finished slightly below prior year, primarily driven by lower persistency partially offset by higher prior period sales. Premium income was higher than our expectations and is on the full year growth trajectory that we laid out in February. Sales in the first quarter of $106.8 million increased 2.7% from prior year, primarily driven by robust agent recruiting and productive small case sales partially offset by a decrease in new account sales across other size segments. In the Closed Block segment, adjusted operating income, excluding adjustments related to the Closed Block individual disability reinsurance transaction, was $58.2 million compared to $78.6 million in the first quarter of 2022.

保費收入為 4.295 億美元，略低於上年，這主要是由於較低的持續性部分被較高的前期銷售額所抵消。保費收入高於我們的預期，並且處於我們 2 月份制定的全年增長軌跡上。第一季度的銷售額為 1.068 億美元，比去年同期增長 2.7%，這主要是由於強勁的代理招聘和富有成效的小案例銷售所推動，部分被其他規模細分市場的新客戶銷售額下降所抵消。在 Closed Block 部分，調整後營業收入（不包括與 Closed Block 個人傷殘再保險交易相關的調整）為 5820 萬美元，而 2022 年第一季度為 7860 萬美元。

The decline was primarily due to a year-over-year decrease in the segment's miscellaneous net investment income of $21 million. For benefits experience, the LTC interest-adjusted loss ratio was 86.6% compared to 82.2% and in the year ago period, driven by higher claims incidence. The interest adjusted loss ratio on a rolling 12-month basis was 84.7%. So then wrapping up my commentary on the quarter's financial results, the adjusted operating loss in the corporate segment was $33.5 million compared to $40.4 million -- a $40.4 million loss in the first quarter of 2022, primarily driven by higher investment income on shorter-duration corporate-owned assets. A dynamic that should continue while short-term rates remain elevated.

下降的主要原因是該部門的雜項淨投資收入同比減少 2100 萬美元。對於福利經驗，LTC 利息調整後損失率為 86.6%，而去年同期為 82.2%，這是由於索賠發生率較高。 12 個月滾動基礎上的利息調整後損失率為 84.7%。因此，結束我對本季度財務業績的評論後，企業部門調整後的運營虧損為 3350 萬美元，而 4040 萬美元——2022 年第一季度虧損 4040 萬美元，主要原因是較短期限的投資收益增加公司擁有的資產。在短期利率保持高位的情況下，這種趨勢應該會持續下去。

So then moving now to investments. We continue to see a good environment for new money yields and risk management. Purchases made in the quarter were again at levels above our earned portfolio yield, which was 4.35% in the first quarter. In addition, we are pleased with the ongoing progress with our interest rate hedge program for LTC. Since inception of the program last year, we've entered into $1.6 billion of treasury forwards, which include $772 million this year.

那麼現在轉向投資。我們繼續看到新貨幣收益率和風險管理的良好環境。本季度的購買再次高於我們賺取的投資組合收益率，第一季度為 4.35%。此外，我們對 LTC 利率對沖計劃的持續進展感到滿意。自去年啟動該計劃以來，我們已經簽訂了 16 億美元的國庫券遠期合約，其中包括今年的 7.72 億美元。

Miscellaneous investment income decreased in the first quarter to $15.8 million compared to $41 million a year ago as both traditional bond call premiums and alternative investment income declined. Income from our alternative invested assets was $14.3 million, below our longer-term expectation of $20 million to $25 million, but was in line with our guidance from last quarter.

第一季度雜項投資收入從一年前的 4100 萬美元下降至 1580 萬美元，原因是傳統債券贖回溢價和另類投資收入均下降。我們另類投資資產的收入為 1,430 萬美元，低於我們 2,000 萬至 2,500 萬美元的長期預期，但符合我們上個季度的指引。

Looking ahead, alternative asset income will remain directionally correlated with market conditions. As has been the case for the last several quarters, traditional bond call activity remained low in the first quarter and we do expect this to persist following the run-up in interest rates experienced in 2022. So as we discussed at our outlook meeting, our investment team thoughtfully constructs. Our investment portfolio to manage through cycles and we have a long track record of outperforming downgrade and default benchmarks. Our management of commercial real estate investments is no different. Following a rigorous origination process, we have established a multitiered approach to monitoring loan performance and valuations.

展望未來，另類資產收入仍將與市場狀況保持方向相關。與過去幾個季度的情況一樣，傳統的債券贖回活動在第一季度仍然很低，我們確實預計在 2022 年利率上升之後這種情況會持續下去。因此，正如我們在展望會議上討論的那樣，我們的投資團隊精心打造。我們的投資組合可以管理週期，並且我們在表現優於降級和違約基準方面有著長期的記錄。我們對商業房地產投資的管理也不例外。在嚴格的發起流程之後，我們建立了一種多層次的方法來監控貸款績效和估值。

Our commercial real estate exposure is also substantially underweight compared to industry averages. Commercial mortgage loans of $2.4 billion account for approximately 5.5% of our overall invested assets with an average LTV of approximately 60% while CMBS exposure is limited to a single $2 million investment in the U.K., which carries a AA rating. Within the CML portfolio, office exposure represents 18% of our portfolio with LTVs also approximately 60%.

與行業平均水平相比，我們的商業房地產風險敞口也大幅減持。 24 億美元的商業抵押貸款約占我們總投資資產的 5.5%，平均 LTV 約為 60%，而 CMBS 風險敞口僅限於在英國進行的單筆 200 萬美元投資，英國評級為 AA。在 CML 投資組合中，寫字樓風險占我們投資組合的 18%，LTV 也約為 60%。

Refinancing risk within office is also very low. We have 2 office loans maturing before the end of 2024 with a total book value of approximately $30 million. Our low level of overall real estate exposure, which is heavily weighted to CM1 allows us to thoughtfully seek attractive opportunities that might emerge during times of dislocation. All my commentary this morning was an update on our capital position. As expected, our capital levels are well in excess of our targets and operational needs, offering tremendous flexibility. The weighted average risk-based capital ratio for our traditional U.S. insurance companies strengthened further to approximately 425% and holding company liquidity remains robust at $1.3 billion. Both of these metrics are expected to fluctuate throughout the year, with both ending the year around our expected levels of 400% RBC and $1.5 billion of holding company liquidity.

辦公室內的再融資風險也很低。我們有 2 筆辦公室貸款將於 2024 年底前到期，總賬面價值約為 3000 萬美元。我們對 CM1 的整體房地產風險敞口較低，這使我們能夠深思熟慮地尋找在混亂時期可能出現的有吸引力的機會。我今天早上的所有評論都是對我們資本狀況的更新。正如預期的那樣，我們的資本水平遠遠超過了我們的目標和運營需求，提供了巨大的靈活性。我們傳統美國保險公司的加權平均風險資本比率進一步提高至約 425%，控股公司流動性保持強勁，為 13 億美元。預計這兩個指標全年都會波動，年底時都在我們預期的 400% RBC 和 15 億美元的控股公司流動性水平附近。

Capital metrics did benefit from the strong start to the year for our statutory results. Statutory after-tax income was $276.2 million for the first quarter putting us on pace for generating over $1 billion for the year, which translates to strong free cash flow generation at the holding company. Our strong cash generation model drives our ability to return capital to shareholders. And in the first quarter, we paid $69.2 million in common stock dividends and repurchased 1.3 million shares at a total cost of $53.6 million.

資本指標確實受益於我們法定業績今年的強勁開局。第一季度的法定稅後收入為 2.762 億美元，這使我們有望在今年創造超過 10 億美元的收入，這意味著控股公司產生了強勁的自由現金流。我們強大的現金生成模式推動了我們向股東返還資本的能力。在第一季度，我們支付了 6920 萬美元的普通股股息，並以 5360 萬美元的總成本回購了 130 萬股股票。

As Rick mentioned, our plans for 2023 include increase in the pace of share repurchases as well as the level of our common stock dividend. Other capital plans such as fully recognizing the premium deficiency reserve by year-end also remain on track.

正如 Rick 提到的，我們 2023 年的計劃包括加快股票回購的步伐以及我們的普通股股息水平。其他資本計劃，例如在年底前完全確認保費不足準備金，也在按計劃進行。

And as a reminder, we will contribute capital into our Fairwind subsidiary over the course of the year and began this process with capital contributions of $200 million into the Fairwind subsidiary in the first quarter. Full recognition of the premium deficiency reserve this year will result in significant excess margin over our current best estimate and support our plans of not contributing capital into Fairwind as we discussed at our outlook meeting. So we could not be more pleased with our strong capital position and flexibility as the fundamental trends across our businesses.

提醒一下，我們將在這一年中向我們的 Fairwind 子公司注資，並在第一季度向 Fairwind 子公司注資 2 億美元開始這一過程。正如我們在展望會議上討論的那樣，今年對保費不足準備金的全面確認將導致我們目前的最佳估計有顯著的超額利潤，並支持我們不向 Fairwind 注資的計劃。因此，我們對我們強大的資本狀況和靈活性作為我們業務的基本趨勢感到非常滿意。

The expected group disability performance for the remainder of the year significantly strengthens our earnings power and supports our updated outlook. And so to reiterate, we now expect an increase in after-tax adjusted operating income per share of 20% to 25% over 2022 on a historically reported basis or an increase of 10% to 15% on a consistent basis under LDTI.

今年剩餘時間的預期團體殘疾表現顯著增強了我們的盈利能力並支持我們更新的前景。因此重申一下，我們現在預計稅後調整後每股營業收入將在歷史報告的基礎上比 2022 年增長 20% 至 25%，或者在 LDTI 下持續增長 10% 至 15%。

So now I'll turn the call back to Rick for his closing comments, and I look forward to your questions.

所以現在我會把電話轉回給里克聽取他的結束評論，我期待著你的問題。

Thank you, Steve, and thank you all for taking the time to join us this morning. As you've heard, we're very pleased with the strong start to the year and the momentum it creates as we look to execute on our growth strategy throughout 2023. Broad-based execution and taking care of our customers is leading to a strong top line good returns and capital generation that provides substantial financial flexibility. The team is here to respond to your questions, so I'll ask Elliott to begin the Q&A session.

謝謝你，史蒂夫，感謝大家今天早上抽出時間加入我們。正如您所聽到的，我們對今年的強勁開局及其創造的勢頭感到非常高興，因為我們希望在整個 2023 年執行我們的增長戰略。廣泛的執行和對客戶的照顧正在帶來強大的頂線良好的回報和資本產生，提供巨大的財務靈活性。團隊會在這裡回答您的問題，所以我將請 Elliott 開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Suneet Kamath from Jefferies.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Suneet Kamath。

Just wanted to start on the group disability loss ratio. I think you said that low 60% range is sort of sustainable I was just hoping you could unpack that a little bit in terms of what the underlying drivers are because I don't believe we're seeing this level of sort of year-over-year improvement from some of the other companies. And sort of relatedly, I'm assuming you're going to expect that to revert at some point to the longer-term ranges. But just given the pricing dynamics of 2- to 3-year guarantees, shouldn't there be like a tail benefit associated with this at least for the next few years?

只想從群體傷殘損失率開始。我想你說過 60% 的低範圍在某種程度上是可持續的我只是希望你能從潛在驅動因素的角度來解釋一下，因為我不相信我們會看到這種水平的年復一年-其他一些公司的年改進。和某種相關的是，我假設你會期望它在某個時候恢復到長期範圍。但僅僅考慮到 2 到 3 年擔保的定價動態，至少在接下來的幾年裡，難道不應該有與此相關的尾部收益嗎？

Great, Suneet. Thanks for the question. I think I'd start off with just saying that we're very happy with the results that we've seen in group Disability. Coming towards the end of last year and into the beginning of this year, I think it's broad-based in terms of the positives are swinging. And I'll turn it over to Mike and Steve to talk a little bit more because this was a big driver in the quarter. It changed our outlook for the year because of the good performance we've seen very happy about how it's influenced the overall, but there's a lot to unpack there. So we'll start out, Mike.

太好了，蘇尼特。謝謝你的問題。我想我會首先說我們對我們在殘疾組中看到的結果感到非常滿意。從去年年底到今年年初，我認為就積極因素而言，這是一個廣泛的基礎。我會把它交給邁克和史蒂夫再談一點，因為這是本季度的一個重要推動力。它改變了我們對這一年的展望，因為我們看到它對整體的影響非常高興，但還有很多東西需要打開。那麼我們就開始吧，邁克。

As Rick said, we were starting to see favorability on a number of claim trend fronts towards the back half of last year. And we've seen those continue here in the first quarter. And I'd just start with new claim incidents we had gotten back into that pre-pandemic range. And really what we've seen emerge here through the start of the year is that continues to move favorably down towards the bottom of that range.

正如 Rick 所說，我們開始看到去年下半年許多索賠趨勢方面的優勢。我們已經看到這些在第一季度繼續存在。我只是從我們已經回到大流行前範圍的新索賠事件開始。事實上，今年年初我們在這裡看到的是，它繼續朝著該範圍的底部向下移動。

And when we look forward, most of our LTD claims are coming through the short-term disability product first, that gives us a little bit of a lens into the pipeline. And so again, we feel like some of that favorability, which is quite broad based on new claim incidence is likely to continue as we go through the balance of the year. And then the other piece, recoveries just continue to improve. We do think the environment is one that is conducive to helping people get back to a productive lifestyle. We also feel very good about not only a fully staffed benefits organization, but one that's experienced very low turnover from a historical point of view, the proficiency is there across our benefit specialists, the clinicians, the vocational specialists or analytic teams are working together in concert which the sum total that says we're likely to end instead of that mid-60s that we were forecasting prior that more likely to stay in this low 60% range as well.

當我們展望未來時，我們的大部分 LTD 索賠都是首先通過短期傷殘產品獲得的，這讓我們對管道有了一些了解。因此，我們再次感到，隨著今年餘下時間的推移，基於新索賠發生率的相當廣泛的青睞可能會繼續存在。然後另一部分，恢復只是繼續改善。我們確實認為環境有利於幫助人們恢復富有成效的生活方式。我們不僅對一個人員配備齊全的福利組織感到非常滿意，而且從歷史的角度來看，這個組織的人員流動率非常低，我們的福利專家、臨床醫生、職業專家或分析團隊的熟練程度都很高音樂會的總和表明我們可能會結束，而不是我們之前預測的 60 年代中期更有可能保持在這個低 60% 的範圍內。

And then just quickly on the market dynamics, you are right. Just in general, our philosophy is, one, to make any changes to pricing gradual. We think our clients really appreciate consistency and predictability as they're building their budgets. As always, we will keep a close eye on claim trends, other cost factors that go into pricing as well. And of course, market dynamics.

然後快速了解市場動態，你是對的。總的來說，我們的理念是，一個是逐步改變定價。我們認為我們的客戶在製定預算時非常欣賞一致性和可預測性。一如既往，我們將密切關注索賠趨勢，以及影響定價的其他成本因素。當然，還有市場動態。

And that's probably a point to end on, which is we do feel good about how we're positioned in the market. Strong sales, as Rick highlighted, at 22.5%, very often, our disability is packaged with life insurance and voluntary benefits that we've seen our HR Connect, building our products into the Workday ADP and UKG platforms performed really well over the preceding quarters. And then, of course, the total leave offering is a differentiator for our disability business. So all of those things will factor in, and I do expect that any changes that occur are going to be gradual on the pricing front.

這可能是一個結束點，我們確實對我們在市場中的定位感到滿意。強勁的銷售，正如 Rick 強調的那樣，佔 22.5%，通常，我們的殘疾與人壽保險和自願福利打包在一起，我們已經看到我們的 HR Connect，將我們的產品構建到 Workday ADP 和 UKG 平台中，在前幾個季度表現非常好.然後，當然，總休假是我們殘疾業務的一個差異化因素。所以所有這些因素都會考慮在內，我確實希望在定價方面發生的任何變化都將是漸進的。

No. Probably the only thing I'd add is just to put a bot on the math. We did talk about the cause and effect of what we did with the overall guidance going to the 20% to 25% against the historical basis. That change was driven in its entirety by the change in our benefit ratio expectations for group disability. And we still feel good in aggregate about the rest of the guidance that we gave in February and really have still incorporated that into the new guidance.

不。可能我唯一要補充的就是在數學上放一個機器人。我們確實討論了我們所做的事情的因果關係，總體指導與歷史基礎相比達到 20% 到 25%。這一變化完全是由我們對群體殘疾的福利比率預期的變化推動的。總的來說，我們對我們在 2 月份給出的其餘指南仍然感覺良好，並且確實將其納入了新指南。

And then I guess my second question is just on that strong sales growth, particularly in Unum US. It would seem to suggest to me that you're not seeing any pressure, at least not yet from unemployment or layoffs or anything, but we're reading more and more about that every day. So maybe just some color on the block and any impacts that you could see kind of as we move forward as unemployment starts to pick up if that in fact has happened.

然後我想我的第二個問題只是關於強勁的銷售增長，特別是在 Unum US。在我看來，這似乎表明你沒有看到任何壓力，至少還沒有來自失業或裁員或其他任何事情，但我們每天都在閱讀越來越多的相關信息。因此，也許只是街區上的一些顏色以及隨著失業率開始上升而我們前進時您可能會看到的任何影響，如果這實際上已經發生的話。

Yes. Suneet, I think you're raising a broader question. It's been talked about really through the course of the year as one of the recessionary impacts that we might see across the company. And I'll let Mike talk about the top line impacts. But when we think about it, we have been getting lifts and so that's been good to grow the block. But we think even in a more difficult slower environment, we'll see some of that top line slowness, but it doesn't really change our trajectory. But Mike, maybe you could talk about what we're seeing across the business from a -- from an employment perspective.

是的。 Suneet，我認為你提出了一個更廣泛的問題。在這一年中，人們一直在談論它作為我們可能在整個公司看到的經濟衰退影響之一。我會讓邁克談談頂線影響。但是當我們考慮它時，我們一直在得到提升，所以這對街區的發展是件好事。但我們認為，即使在一個更困難、更慢的環境中，我們也會看到一些收入放緩，但這並沒有真正改變我們的軌跡。但是邁克，也許你可以從就業的角度談談我們在整個企業中看到的情況。

I think that's right. We continue to see a little bit of a tailwind, both in terms of our clients adding employees and then the salary increases that are coming through that a number of our products are levered to -- when we think about a change in the economic climate, we generally do think on 2 fronts.

我認為這是對的。我們繼續看到一點順風，無論是在我們的客戶增加員工方面，還是在我們的許多產品所利用的工資增長方面——當我們考慮經濟氣候的變化時，我們通常會從兩個方面思考。

First, on the top line. And even as we sort of think about some different forecasts, through the balance of the year, we do still feel comfortable on our top line forecast that we had laid out in that kind of 3% to 5% across all the core ops and 4% to 6% for the Unum brand here in the U.S. So that still is, I think, a really good place for us to be.

首先，在頂線。即使我們考慮了一些不同的預測，在今年餘下的時間裡，我們仍然對我們在所有核心業務和 4 中設定的 3% 到 5% 的收入預測感到滿意% 到 6% 的 Unum 品牌在美國。所以我認為，這對我們來說仍然是一個非常好的地方。

And then always, we're going to think about potential disability claim impacts that come should unemployment move up we're going to stay very close to that. Again, it is extremely advantageous to have such a strong underwriting and benefits team ready to respond should we need to.

然後總是，我們將考慮失業率上升可能帶來的潛在殘疾索賠影響，我們將非常接近這一點。同樣，如果我們需要，擁有如此強大的承保和福利團隊隨時準備做出回應是非常有利的。

And I would just remind folks, we've talked about it before that when we do see a tick-up in claim incidents due to sort of environmentally sensitive factors, those come over a period of quarters and you do generally have a line of sight before those start to emerge. And again, we're feeling like the current favorability and disability incidence is likely to continue at least for the balance of this year.

我只想提醒大家，我們之前已經討論過，當我們確實看到由於某種環境敏感因素導致的索賠事件有所增加時，這些事件會持續幾個季度，而且您通常會看到在那些開始出現之前。再一次，我們覺得目前的好感度和殘疾發生率至少在今年餘下時間可能會持續下去。

Yes. The only thing I'd add to that, Suneet, is when we laid out expectation at Investor Day, we did have a mild recessionary scenario built into that, which had pretty much GDP relatively flat, maybe just a modest increase for the year, actually decreases for the second and third quarter. And we did anticipate a tick up in unemployment. So that was really built in to how we built the models at the beginning of the year.

是的。 Suneet，我唯一要補充的是，當我們在投資者日制定預期時，我們確實有一個溫和的衰退情景，其中 GDP 幾乎持平，今年可能只是適度增長，第二和第三季度實際上有所下降。我們確實預計失業率會上升。因此，這確實融入了我們在年初構建模型的方式。

(Operator Instructions) We now turn to Tom Gallagher from Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）我們現在求助於 Evercore ISI 的 Tom Gallagher。

Just a follow-up on the low benefit ratio in group disability. I'm not going to ask you to recast it on the old GAAP. That's sort of where I'm headed on the question, though. So in other words, is there some feature of the new LDTI accounting that is flattering that benefit ratio relative to what it would have been under the old accounting. I guess that's my first question. Because I'm thinking about historically, you were in the low to mid-70s and now we're at 60%. It's a huge difference. Some element of this low 60s driven by the new accounting. That's the first question.

只是對群體殘疾的低福利率的後續行動。我不會要求您根據舊的 GAAP 重鑄它。不過，這就是我要解決的問題。所以換句話說，新的 LDTI 會計是否有一些特徵可以使福利比率相對於舊會計下的收益比率更加有利。我想這是我的第一個問題。因為我在考慮歷史，你在 70 年代中期，現在我們是 60%。這是一個巨大的差異。新會計法推動了這種低 60 年代的某些因素。這是第一個問題。

Hey Tom, it's Steve. I can take that one. I would say, generally speaking, it was de minimis. We did have a little bit of upside year-over-year from the discount rate, just the relative discount rate. So we noted that in the earnings release, a year-over-year gave us a little bit of an uplift, but it was pretty de minimis. So the majority of the favorability resolved for the loss ratio is driven by what Mike talked about incidents and recoveries. And that interest rate will fluctuate over time, but I would say that's not the main part of the story.

嗨，湯姆，我是史蒂夫。我可以拿那個。我會說，一般來說，這是微不足道的。從貼現率來看，我們確實有一點同比上漲，只是相對貼現率。所以我們注意到，在收益發布中，同比給我們帶來了一點提升，但這是微不足道的。因此，為損失率解決的大部分好感度是由 Mike 談到的事件和恢復所驅動的。而且利率會隨著時間的推移而波動，但我想說這不是故事的主要部分。

So that would have been call it, pretty darn close directionally even under the old accounting and you would, I presume, also see a similar statutory benefit?

所以這就是所謂的，即使在舊會計下也非常接近方向，我想你也會看到類似的法定利益？

That's correct.

這是正確的。

And then just out of curiosity because I think you are a clear standout among disability carriers, I guess we'll still see what others report this quarter. But are you -- if you had to make your best guess for why your performance is so much better right now. Is it underwriting?

然後出於好奇，因為我認為您是殘疾攜帶者中明顯的佼佼者，我想我們仍會在本季度看到其他人的報告。但是你是——如果你必須對為什麼你現在的表現好得多做出最好的猜測。是包銷嗎？

Have you avoided certain sectors where things might be under a little more pressure or maybe your overweight in some sectors that are really favorable at the moment. Are you seeing differences in case size? Is there any way to sort of unpack why -- what's beyond just the mechanics of the underlying claim trends and whatnot in terms of why the experience is looking so good right now?

您是否避開了某些可能承受更大壓力的行業，或者您是否加碼了目前非常有利的某些行業。您是否看到外殼尺寸的差異？有沒有什麼方法可以解釋為什麼——除了潛在的索賠趨勢的機制之外還有什麼，以及為什麼現在的體驗看起來這麼好？

Tom, we appreciate you focusing on that. I think I would just say across the franchise, this is something we've been a leader in for many years. And Mike mentioned in his comments, we have a really good team, and that matters in terms of our ability from the top of the business to be able to underwrite all the way down through pricing analytics across the board.

湯姆，我們感謝你專注於此。我想我只想說整個特許經營權，這是我們多年來一直處於領先地位的事情。邁克在他的評論中提到，我們擁有一支非常優秀的團隊，這對我們從業務高層到能夠通過全面定價分析一直承保的能力而言很重要。

And then ultimately, claim management is a key piece of this business. And so I let Mike unpack it a little bit, but this is about running a disability business for the long term. We've been a leader in the space and have a really good team on that front. But maybe, Mike, you can dissect that a little bit to Tom's curiosity.

最後，索賠管理是這項業務的關鍵部分。所以我讓 Mike 稍微解釋一下，但這是關於長期經營殘疾人業務。我們一直是該領域的領導者，並且在這方面擁有一支非常優秀的團隊。但也許，邁克，你可以對湯姆的好奇心進行一點剖析。

Sure. And we would say, in general, it's a favorable environment, and we would expect -- it may vary and certainly would vary a bit carrier to carrier. But overall, as an industry, it's a pretty positive environment. And as we look at some industry studies that are done periodically. There is generally a pretty favorable trend on a couple of these dimensions.

當然。我們會說，總的來說，這是一個有利的環境，我們預計 - 它可能會有所不同，而且肯定會因運營商而異。但總的來說，作為一個行業，這是一個非常積極的環境。當我們查看一些定期進行的行業研究時。在其中幾個維度上通常有一個非常有利的趨勢。

That being said, I'd say it is the connectivity between the claim experience we have, how our finance and actuarial teams feed that in, in support of our underwriting teams. Field folks that are really good business people and know how to balance growth, profitability and then benefits team, very, very tenured in that group and know how to get people back to work. So it's a balance of internal and external factors for sure. And just because it is a point of interest, I would say, it is broad-based, too. So when we break it down and look at it sort of for instance, recoveries by duration of claim or diagnosis or occupation or industry of claim and we're seeing that it's really playing out across a really broad cross-section, which again gives us little bit more confidence that the trends will sustain.

話雖如此，我想說的是我們擁有的索賠經驗與我們的財務和精算團隊如何提供這些經驗之間的聯繫，以支持我們的承保團隊。實地工作人員是非常優秀的業務人員，知道如何平衡增長、盈利能力和團隊利益，他們在該團隊中非常非常有經驗，並且知道如何讓人們重返工作崗位。所以這肯定是內部和外部因素的平衡。正因為它是一個興趣點，我想說，它的基礎也很廣泛。因此，當我們將其分解並查看它時，例如，按索賠持續時間或診斷或職業或索賠行業進行的恢復，我們看到它確實在一個非常廣泛的橫截面上發揮作用，這再次給了我們對趨勢將持續下去的信心增加了一點。

We now turn to Ryan Krueger with KBW.

我們現在轉向 KBW 的 Ryan Krueger。

My question was -- first question was on the additional interest rate hedges. Can you frame how that would come through the PDR in a lower interest rate scenario? I think I recall you saying that in the 2.5%, 30-year interest rate scenario, the prior interest rate hedges had benefited that sensitivity by $150 million. I think you've doubled them from where they were at year-end. Just curious if we should extrapolate that?

我的問題是——第一個問題是關於額外的利率對沖。你能描述一下在較低利率的情況下如何通過 PDR 實現嗎？我想我記得你說過，在 2.5%、30 年期利率的情況下，之前的利率對沖使這種敏感性增加了 1.5 億美元。我認為你已經將它們從年底的位置翻了一番。只是好奇我們是否應該推斷？

Yes, Ryan, this is Steve. The math and kind of the history that you just went through is accurate. And so that is what we communicated back at Investor Day. The one thing that I would say is depending on where we're hedging and the cash flows that we're hedging within the 5-year cycle, it could vary a little bit and probably doesn't straight line.

是的，瑞安，這是史蒂夫。您剛剛經歷的歷史的數學和種類是準確的。這就是我們在投資者日交流的內容。我要說的一件事是，這取決於我們在 5 年周期內對沖的位置和我們要對沖的現金流量，它可能會有所不同，而且可能不是直線。

But I think philosophically and directionally, you've got it right. The more protection that we can put on that will scale up the protection on downside scenarios that we get. And just to remind, there's really not a lot of day one impact to the premium deficiency reserve itself when we put the hedges on that block of business, but it does provide that downside protection. And that's really why we're doing it. It's for risk management. But I think in theory, what you described is accurate.

但我從哲學和方向上認為，你是對的。我們可以提供的保護越多，就會擴大對我們獲得的不利情況的保護。提醒一下，當我們將對沖放在該業務塊上時，第一天對保費不足準備金本身的影響確實不大，但它確實提供了下行保護。這就是我們這樣做的真正原因。是為了風險管理。但我認為理論上，你描述的是準確的。

And then on free cash flow, at the investor meeting, you had talked about $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion of upstream sources of cash flow. Given the more favorable benefit ratio trends in group disability. How should we think about to the expenses upside to that?

然後關於自由現金流，在投資者會議上，您談到了 11 億至 13 億美元的上游現金流來源。鑑於群體殘疾的收益比趨勢更有利。我們應該如何考慮與此相關的費用？

Yes. I would -- I'll break that into 2 pieces. One, when you're thinking about 2023 cash generation, that's pretty much locked in at this point because it's going to be driven by the dividends that we're actually pulling out of the subsidiaries, which is more based on financial performance last year. Your comment, though, is spot on around -- we do think that there probably is upside as we go into the remainder of the year because the overperformance that we've seen in group disability will translate in the higher statutory reserves.

是的。我會 - 我會把它分成兩部分。第一，當你考慮 2023 年的現金產生時，這在這一點上幾乎是固定的，因為它將受到我們實際上從子公司撤出的股息的推動，這更多地取決於去年的財務業績。不過，您的評論是正確的——我們確實認為，隨著我們進入今年剩餘時間，可能會有上行空間，因為我們在團體殘疾方面看到的超常表現將轉化為更高的法定準備金。

And you saw that where our run rate is over that $1 billion. That will really be reflected in free cash flow as we get more into next year and we look at our dividend plans in 2024 coming out of the operating companies.

你看到我們的運行率超過 10 億美元。這將真正反映在自由現金流中，因為我們將更多地進入明年，並且我們會查看 2024 年來自運營公司的股息計劃。

Our next question comes from Alex Scott with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Alex Scott。

I thought I'd just ask about the competitive environment broadly. Maybe if you could talk about it broadly and then also particularly for disability. When I think about sort of rewinding a year, 1.5 years ago, we were sort of in an environment where it looked like in a lot of products, you potentially needed to take price to offset pressures from COVID and sort of fast forward to now and maybe some of that price that was put in wasn't necessarily needed in certain products versus others? But we're also staring the potential recession. So with all these different elements, falling into the pricing, like what does that competitive environment look like right now? And how long do you think you can hold on the favorable results, particularly in disability?

我想我只是廣泛地詢問競爭環境。也許如果你能廣泛地談論它，然後也特別是殘疾。當我考慮倒帶一年，1.5 年前，我們處在一個環境中，在很多產品中，你可能需要採取價格來抵消來自 COVID 的壓力，然後快進到現在，與其他產品相比，某些產品不一定需要投入的某些價格？但我們也在盯著潛在的衰退。因此，有了所有這些不同的因素，進入定價，就像現在的競爭環境是什麼樣的？您認為有利的結果可以保持多久，尤其是在殘疾方面？

Alex, it's Mike. I'll take that one on the pricing dynamics and perhaps what we're seeing from a growth point of view for the Unum brand here in the U.S.? And then maybe, Tim, you can comment on voluntary benefits and mark on international.

亞歷克斯，是邁克。我會談談定價動態，也許我們從 Unum 品牌在美國的增長角度來看是什麼？然後，蒂姆，也許你可以評論自願福利並標記國際。

I think there are good stories to tell across all the markets. And like we talked a little bit about, certainly, we're sitting in a favorable point from a group disability loss ratio. Very often, that's packaged with life insurance. That life insurance sits squarely to the middle of the range of where we would expect to see that and also with voluntary benefits as well. I feel very much like we are well positioned. Typically, clients are making decisions based on factors that certainly include price, but also the service that you deliver and increasingly the technology that you can bring to bear to make things easier for the HR teams and ultimately for the employees.

我認為所有市場都有好故事可講。就像我們談到的那樣，當然，我們正處於群體傷殘損失率的有利位置。通常，它與人壽保險捆綁在一起。該人壽保險恰好位於我們期望看到的範圍的中間，並且還具有自願福利。我覺得我們的位置很好。通常，客戶根據當然包括價格的因素做出決策，還包括您提供的服務以及越來越多的您可以帶來的技術，以使人力資源團隊和最終員工的工作變得更輕鬆。

And our total leave offering and our HR Connect offering are helped -- really differentiate us in the mid and large case markets for the group lines of business, and you see that reflected in the sales results to date and again, an accelerating top line forecast for us as we go through the year here. So we will stay very close, make sure that we're delivering really good strong value to clients, but I feel very good about how we're position. And Tim, maybe you can talk a little bit about voluntary?

我們的總休假服務和我們的 HR Connect 服務得到了幫助——真正使我們在集團業務線的中型和大型案例市場中脫穎而出，你會看到，這反映在迄今為止的銷售結果中，一次又一次地，一個加速的頂線預測對我們來說，因為我們在這裡度過了這一年。因此，我們將保持密切聯繫，確保我們為客戶提供真正強大的價值，但我對我們的定位感到非常滿意。蒂姆，也許你可以談談自願性？

Yes. Thanks, Mike. And Alex, thanks for the question. I'll start with the Unum side for VB. We feel great about the value proposition. We had a fantastic first quarter, which is the largest sales quarter for Unum on the VB side. We have huge opportunities to continue cross-selling VB into our existing group employer paid book. We also have opportunities to add more voluntary benefits to our HR Connect platforms. And we have an outstanding distribution system with very strong broker relationships. So we feel great about our opportunities on the Unum VB side. For Colonial Life, clearly, it is a competitive marketplace, but we have a number of differentiators that we believe serve us extremely well going forward.

是的。謝謝，邁克。亞歷克斯，謝謝你的提問。我將從 VB 的 Unum 端開始。我們對價值主張感到滿意。我們有一個很棒的第一季度，這是 Unum 在 VB 方面最大的銷售季度。我們有巨大的機會繼續將 VB 交叉銷售到我們現有的集團雇主付費書籍中。我們還有機會為我們的 HR Connect 平台增加更多自願性福利。我們擁有出色的分銷系統和非常強大的經紀人關係。所以我們對我們在 Unum VB 方面的機會感到非常高興。對於 Colonial Life，顯然，這是一個競爭激烈的市場，但我們有許多差異化因素，我們相信這些因素對我們的未來發展非常有利。

I'll start with the distribution system, more than 12,000 independent agents representing Colonial life every day with a unique ability to get at small clients, especially, but also Colony Life continues to do extremely well in public sector where we had strong growth in the first quarter despite a bit of a challenging quarter overall. Our direct sales were up nicely in the first quarter as well. And in addition to that distribution system, we're extremely excited about Gather. Rick made some comments about Gather in his opening comments, an HR tech platform that we can make available. In the small case market, especially that's really creating significant opportunities for our distribution team.

我將從分銷系統開始，每天有超過 12,000 名獨立代理人代表 Colonial Life，他們具有吸引小客戶的獨特能力，尤其是，而且 Colony Life 在公共部門繼續做得非常好，我們在公共部門取得了強勁的增長第一季度，儘管總體上是一個充滿挑戰的季度。我們的直銷在第一季度也有很好的增長。除了該分發系統之外，我們對 Gather 也感到非常興奮。 Rick 在開場白中對 Gather 發表了一些評論，這是一個我們可以提供的人力資源技術平台。在小箱市場，尤其是這確實為我們的分銷團隊創造了重要機會。

We're excited about the opportunity to distribute Unum Group employer paid products in certain market segments with the Colonial Life distribution team and we're also really excited about some -- that we began about 6 years ago in an agent productivity application that we are using at Colony Life to really improve the effectiveness and success rates of our agents. So very competitive market, as you pointed out, Alex, but we like our value proposition on both brands for VB. I'll turn it over to Mark.

我們很高興有機會與 Colonial Life 分銷團隊一起在某些細分市場分銷 Unum Group 雇主付費產品，我們也對一些產品感到非常興奮——我們大約 6 年前在代理生產力應用程序中開始，我們現在在 Colony Life 使用，可以真正提高我們代理人的效率和成功率。如此競爭激烈的市場，正如你所指出的，亞歷克斯，但我們喜歡我們對 VB 兩個品牌的價值主張。我會把它交給馬克。

Thanks, Tim. What I would say is in both the U.K. and Poland, we've definitely seen rising demand for the products post pandemic particularly the group risk products in Poland and obviously the U.K. business, which is all group risk, much more rational, sustainable pricing being demanded by brokers less inclined to be running towards the best deal, a lot more focus on the value-added services.

謝謝，蒂姆。我要說的是，在英國和波蘭，我們肯定看到大流行後對產品的需求不斷上升，尤其是波蘭的團體風險產品，顯然是英國業務，這都是團體風險，定價更加合理，可持續經紀人的要求不太傾向於追求最好的交易，更多地關注增值服務。

So we launched Health at hand 360 in the U.K., which is a high value-added employee proposition. And the other thing that's consistent in the selection is claims management. And again, that's a real strength of our franchise, particularly in the U.K. where we're consistently ranked as the best for claims -- and being a broker-led business in the U.K., a big focus on improving the broker experience has seen our satisfaction rise here and us generally being rated #1 or #2 in the market. And I think that's what's being behind what has been a 38% growth between sales in the U.K. and 107% growth in Poland.

所以我們在英國推出了 Health at hand 360，這是一個高附加值的員工提議。在選擇中保持一致的另一件事是索賠管理。再一次，這是我們特許經營權的真正優勢，特別是在英國，我們一直被評為最佳索賠 - 作為英國一家以經紀人為主導的企業，我們非常注重改善經紀人體驗滿意度在這裡上升，我們通常在市場上被評為#1 或#2。我認為這就是英國銷售額增長 38% 和波蘭銷售額增長 107% 的原因。

So Alex, it's Mike again. So hopefully, you get a sense really across our markets, about sort of the confidence that we have in our positioning. We operate in competitive markets to be sure. We haven't seen any big moves from any particular competitors. And in general, we're pretty enthusiastic about what we've been doing to invest in our people and in our differentiating technology over the last year or so, and we're starting to see that emerge in terms of that accelerating top line.

亞歷克斯，又是邁克。因此，希望您能真正了解我們的市場，了解我們對自己定位的信心。可以肯定的是，我們在競爭激烈的市場中運營。我們還沒有看到任何特定競爭對手的任何重大舉措。總的來說，在過去一年左右的時間裡，我們對我們在員工和差異化技術方面所做的投資非常熱情，我們開始看到在加速的收入方面出現了這種情況。

The second question I had is on capital management. When I think about the strength of the statutory results where the RBC ratio is getting to the additional hedges, maybe giving you a little more confidence about the range of outcomes and getting closer to a point where you're going to have a lot more flexibility with the voluntary contributions coming down. Maybe you could provide just a broad update on how you're thinking about capital management and what your priorities may be as we get closer to year-end?

我的第二個問題是關於資本管理的。當我考慮 RBC 比率達到額外對沖的法定結果的強度時，也許會讓您對結果範圍更有信心，並接近您將擁有更大靈活性的點隨著自願捐款的減少。也許您可以就您對資本管理的看法以及我們接近年底時您的優先事項是什麼提供一個廣泛的更新？

Yes, Alex, talking about the overall capital management. I don't think it's changed dramatically since we were with you at Investor Day. We were very pleased with the first quarter. And as you said, it does -- it's additive from a capital generation perspective from what we're doing -- but the plans for the year in terms of reinvesting in our business, continuing to fuel that growth engine that Mike talked about across all of our franchise is critically important, and we're going to continue to put money there. We've talked about funding of the PDR. We've started that process over this quarter. We're going to keep doing that. I think when you think about our capital deployment over the course of the year, that is a primary use.

是的，亞歷克斯，談論整體資本管理。自從我們在投資者日與您在一起以來，我認為情況沒有發生太大變化。我們對第一季度感到非常滿意。正如你所說，它確實 - 從我們正在做的資本生成的角度來看，它是附加的 - 但今年的計劃在我們的業務再投資方面，繼續推動邁克談到的增長引擎我們的特許經營權至關重要，我們將繼續在那裡投入資金。我們已經討論了 PDR 的資金問題。我們已經在本季度開始了這個過程。我們將繼續這樣做。我想當你考慮我們一年中的資本部署時，這是主要用途。

So back at Investor Day, we told you we'd be putting $800 million to $900 million there to make sure that looking out over the course of the next few years and having that being fully funded and not needing to put more capital there. And then when you think about redeploying to investors, continues to be important. We mentioned that we're going to increase the pace of share repurchase in the second half of the year by about 50%, about $75 million a quarter starting in the second half of this year. And then dividend is always critical. So very happy with the results of where we are, what we have, what the generation looks like on a statutory basis. But I think our plans are -- we're going to stay pat for now as we continue to work through that. But obviously, thoughts of flexibility as we get towards the end of the year and start to look towards plans in 2024.

所以回到投資者日，我們告訴你我們將在那裡投入 8 億至 9 億美元，以確保在未來幾年內放眼並獲得充分的資金，而不需要在那裡投入更多資金。然後，當您考慮重新部署給投資者時，仍然很重要。我們提到我們將在今年下半年將股票回購的速度提高約 50%，從今年下半年開始每季度約 7500 萬美元。然後股息總是至關重要的。對我們所處的位置、我們擁有的東西、這一代人在法定基礎上的樣子非常滿意。但我認為我們的計劃是——在我們繼續努力的過程中，我們現在將保持不變。但顯然，隨著我們臨近年底並開始著眼於 2024 年的計劃，我們會想到靈活性。

Our next question comes from Wilma Burdis from Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Wilma Burdis。

Is there an interest rate level at which you would consider cutting back the LTC hedging? Or is it more to be used as a tool to get some certainty in the expected investment yield for LTC cash flows?

您是否會考慮削減 LTC 對沖的利率水平？還是更多地用作工具來確定 LTC 現金流的預期投資收益率？

Wilma it's Steve. Yes, we don't really have a number that we're looking at. It's kind of an on/off for this program. We think it's a great program and a pretty broad range of interest rates, to be honest, because clearly, we're looking to protect the downside. And as we went through, obviously, some pretty depressed interest rates over the last 10 years. we view it as a really good tool. And so we're not giving any guidance around what the floor of our program would be. We're just really happy with where rates have been, say, over the last year or so and we're very happy with where we've been able to lock in rates through that period of time through our hedging program. So we'll proceed with the program, continue to look for opportunities and just carry that program forward.

威爾瑪，是史蒂夫。是的，我們並沒有真正看到的數字。這是該程序的開/關。老實說，我們認為這是一個很棒的計劃和相當廣泛的利率範圍，因為很明顯，我們正在尋求保護下行空間。顯然，在過去 10 年裡，我們經歷了一些相當低迷的利率。我們認為它是一個非常好的工具。因此，我們不會就我們計劃的底線提供任何指導。我們對過去一年左右的利率水平感到非常滿意，我們對我們能夠通過對沖計劃在這段時間內鎖定利率的情況感到非常滿意。因此，我們繼續執行該計劃，繼續尋找機會並將該計劃向前推進。

I'd just add too, and just to be clear, we think about the longer end of the investment curve. So as you see a lot of volatility even with announcements that will come out today. Those are really not what we're focused on the hedging is focused on the long end of the curve.

我也想補充一點，為了清楚起見，我們考慮的是投資曲線的較長端。因此，即使今天將發佈公告，您也會看到很多波動。這些真的不是我們關注的對沖，而是關注曲線的長端。

And then can you talk a little bit about the Colonial benefit ratio. It seems like the cancer block had a little bit of noise. Should we expect the benefit ratios to kind of normalize in the short term?

然後你能談談殖民地福利比率嗎？癌症街區似乎有點噪音。我們是否應該期望收益比率在短期內恢復正常？

Tim?

蒂姆？

Yes. So the colonized benefit ratio in the first quarter was impacted by volatility in the cancer and critical illness line that line tends to be a little bit more volatile. We actually saw favorable volatility, I would call it in 2022. So it bounces around a little bit. We continue to believe that the long-term range for the benefit ratio for Colonial Life is what we shared at Investor Day in the 47% to 50% range.

是的。因此，第一季度的殖民福利比率受到癌症和重大疾病線波動的影響，該線往往更不穩定。我們實際上看到了有利的波動，我會在 2022 年稱之為。所以它會反彈一點點。我們仍然相信，Colonial Life 福利比率的長期範圍是我們在投資者日分享的 47% 至 50% 的範圍。

Our next question comes from Erik Bass from Autonomous Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 Erik Bass。

I was just hoping you could talk a little bit more about the Colonial business and sales and persistency trends. I mean it sounds like you still expect to hit the 1% to 3% premium growth target for the year. So -- just hoping you can give us a little more color on what's giving you the confidence there?

我只是希望你能多談談殖民地的業務、銷售和持久性趨勢。我的意思是聽起來您仍然希望實現今年 1% 至 3% 的保費增長目標。所以——只是希望你能給我們更多關於是什麼讓你有信心的顏色？

Yes. Eric, this is Tim. Thanks for the question. We see a lot of trends that are moving in the right direction for us on the Colonial Life side. I mentioned some of the differentiators earlier with Gather and with [cross-brand] what we call cross-brand sales and Asian Assist, I didn't really comment on growth that we're seeing in recruiting the very positive developments there.

是的。埃里克，這是蒂姆。謝謝你的問題。我們看到許多趨勢在殖民地生活方面朝著正確的方向發展。我之前提到過 Gather 和[跨品牌]我們所說的跨品牌銷售和亞洲協助的一些差異化因素，我並沒有真正評論我們在招聘非常積極的發展方面看到的增長。

So you probably remember, fourth quarter of last year, we saw recruiting growth 22% in the first quarter of this year, recruiting was up over 33%. Sales from new [reps] are up 14% in the quarter, and we're seeing that positive momentum continue into the second quarter. We've got about 6% net growth in sales managers who are [1099], so we see a lot of really positive momentum in the infrastructure. That, coupled with the differentiators that we talked about earlier, gives us a lot of confidence that we're going to be able to hit our annual goals first quarter is one of the -- unlike Unum, first quarter is one of the lower quarters and say for Colonial Life and fourth quarter is the bigger quarter.

所以你可能還記得，去年第四季度，我們看到今年第一季度的招聘增長了 22%，招聘增長超過 33%。本季度新[代表]的銷售額增長了 14%，我們看到這種積極勢頭將持續到第二季度。 [1099] 的銷售經理淨增長了約 6%，因此我們在基礎設施方面看到了很多非常積極的勢頭。那，再加上我們之前談到的差異化因素，讓我們充滿信心，我們將能夠實現我們的年度目標第一季度是其中一個 - 與 Unum 不同，第一季度是較低的季度之一並說殖民地生活和第四季度是更大的季度。

So as the momentum builds, we see an opportunity to continue to grow. The other thing that's unique about first quarter comparisons in 2022, Colonial Life had a really big first quarter with 15.3% sales growth. So this was the toughest comparable we'll have in 2023, things get a bit less challenging from a comparable perspective from here. So long way of saying we are confident in what we shared at Investor Day for sales growth. We think on the persistency side, most of that challenge in the first quarter was large case commercial. We think that that's going to smooth out over the balance of the year.

因此，隨著勢頭的增強，我們看到了繼續增長的機會。與 2022 年第一季度相比的另一個獨特之處是，Colonial Life 第一季度的銷售額增長了 15.3%，表現非常出色。所以這是我們在 2023 年將擁有的最艱難的可比性，從這裡的可比性角度來看，事情變得不那麼具有挑戰性了。這麼長的方式說我們對我們在投資者日分享的銷售增長充滿信心。我們認為在持久性方面，第一季度的大部分挑戰都是大型商業案例。我們認為這將在今年餘下的時間裡逐漸平息。

And then maybe just turning to international. I think you commented that kind of stripping out the inflation benefits earnings would have been in kind of the GBP mid-20 million range. Is that kind of the right base to think of going forward? And given how growth has accelerated in recent quarters, should we think that will trend up from there over time?

然後也許只是轉向國際。我想你評論過那種剝離通貨膨脹收益的收益本來會在 2000 萬英鎊左右的範圍內。這是考慮前進的正確基礎嗎？鑑於最近幾個季度的增長速度如何加快，我們是否應該認為隨著時間的推移會從那裡開始上升？

It's Mark here. Yes, we are really pleased with performance of the international business and the U.K. in particular. As we touched on earlier, sales are up 40% premiums are up 9% and earnings this quarter at 31%. But as you say, that includes some benefit from the inflation, as Steve said in his covering notes -- his covering comments. We see something in the GBP 20 million to GBP 25 million range being a good place for us to aspire to be over the course of this year. And then we would hope that as the investments we're putting into the business come through, we would hope in the coming years, that would be on an upward trend from there as well.

我是馬克。是的，我們對國際業務的表現非常滿意，尤其是英國。正如我們之前提到的，本季度銷售額增長了 40%，保費增長了 9%，收益增長了 31%。但正如你所說，這包括通貨膨脹帶來的一些好處，正如史蒂夫在他的附註中所說——他的附註評論。我們看到 2000 萬英鎊到 2500 萬英鎊之間的一些東西是我們渴望在今年的過程中達到的好地方。然後我們希望隨著我們對業務的投資得以實現，我們希望在未來幾年，這也將從那裡呈上升趨勢。

Our next question comes from Wes Carmichael from Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Wes Carmichael。

First question was just on group disability. And maybe on recovery trends, and you're seeing some favorability there. But just wondering if you have any evidence or any thoughts on kind of external factors impacting recoveries in terms of either work from home or wage inflation or the tight labor market and how you might expect recoveries to trend through the balance of 2023?

第一個問題只是關於群體殘疾。也許在復蘇趨勢上，你會看到一些有利因素。但只是想知道您是否有任何證據或任何想法可以說明在家工作或工資上漲或勞動力市場吃緊方面影響復甦的外部因素，以及您如何預計復甦將如何在 2023 年餘下的時間裡呈現趨勢？

Hey Wes, it's Mike, thank you for the question. And you're asking a lot of the questions that we ask all the time as well as just really digging in and understanding what underlies the recovery trend. And I'd say similar to what we're talking about on incidents, it's quite broad-based. And so when we look at things like manufacturing, service, hospitality, places where you need to be physically present. We're seeing really good recovery trends there as well as office based in places that might lend itself to more hybrid or work from home as well. And I do expect these are big macro trends that they will play out over long periods of time.

嘿韋斯，我是邁克，謝謝你的提問。你問了很多我們一直在問的問題，以及真正挖掘和理解復甦趨勢背後的原因。我會說類似於我們在事件上談論的內容，它的基礎非常廣泛。因此，當我們研究諸如製造、服務、酒店等您需要親自到場的地方時。我們在那裡看到了非常好的複蘇趨勢，以及在可能適合更多混合或在家工作的地方的辦公室。我確實希望這些是大的宏觀趨勢，它們將在很長一段時間內發揮作用。

So I'm not sure that the story has been completely written yet on how some of the changes in the economy and those are going to play out with disability risk. But from where we sit right now, it is that broad-based nature of the recovery success that we've had that lends some confidence that we're going to be able to stay at these levels as we work our way through the balance of the year.

所以我不確定關於經濟中的一些變化以及這些變化將如何影響殘疾風險的故事是否已經完整地寫完了。但是從我們現在的位置來看，正是我們所擁有的恢復成功的廣泛性使我們有信心在我們努力實現平衡的過程中能夠保持在這些水平那一年。

And I think with sales being stronger, I think nearly 19% growth in the core operations. Is there any reason to think that your guidance that you laid out an investment day of 4% to 6% in the U.S. or even the overall 3% to 5% for the core should move higher?

而且我認為隨著銷售強勁，我認為核心業務增長近 19%。是否有任何理由認為您在美國製定了 4% 至 6% 的投資日，甚至是核心的 3% 至 5% 的總體投資比例應該更高？

Yes. Well, so a couple of things I talk about our sales. Very happy with how things came in. I'd say that first quarter and it fluctuates. You've heard different dynamics. It's a little bit smaller sales quarter for us. But we're very happy about how that starts. And then it really is how that translates into premium. And so that's where we're really focused. That's about growing a good sustainable top line. is on the premium line, making sure we have good persistency, taking care of our customers, and we still feel very good about our overall outlook there, 3% to 5% across the franchise, a little bit higher, Unum US. And as Tim talked about, Colonial Life catching up fast.

是的。好吧，我談了一些關於我們的銷售的事情。對事情的進展非常滿意。我會說第一季度，它會波動。你聽說過不同的動力。對我們來說，這是一個小一點的銷售季度。但我們對如何開始感到非常高興。然後它真的是如何轉化為溢價。這就是我們真正關注的地方。那是關於發展良好的可持續收入。處於優質線上，確保我們有良好的持久性，照顧我們的客戶，我們仍然對我們在那裡的整體前景感到非常滿意，整個特許經營權的 3% 到 5%，略高一點，Unum US。正如蒂姆所說，殖民地生活正在迅速迎頭趕上。

Our next question comes from Tracy Benguigui with Barclays. We move on to Jimmy Bhullar with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Tracy Benguigui。我們繼續關注 JPMorgan 的 Jimmy Bhullar。

Just had a question along the lines of the discussion that's gone on, on pricing during the call. But as you went through 2023, '22 renewals, did you implement any price reductions in your business in group disability? And did you see any of the other competitors do that as well, given how strong the experience has been over the past year?

剛才有一個問題與正在進行的討論有關，關於通話期間的定價。但是，當您經歷 2023 年、'22 次續約時，您是否在團體殘疾業務中實施了任何降價措施？考慮到過去一年的經驗有多豐富，您是否看到其他競爭對手也這樣做了？

Thanks, Jimmy, it's Mike. So the renewals that we have done to date. So again, those are to be most heavily in that mid and large case market. They will have experience in it. They will typically have multiple years of experience in it. So some portion of some of the favorable claim trends would certainly have gone into that. in general, the cases that come through our renewal programs, there's work to be done from a rate perspective. And we were really pleased with how the 1/1 is finished in terms of the profit improvement we project from placed rate increases. Those are right in line with our expectations. And as you can imagine, we're right in the middle of 1124 renewals. Those are out in the market, particularly at the larger end. I would say it's a competitive market.

謝謝，吉米，我是邁克。所以我們迄今為止所做的更新。同樣，這些將在中型和大型案例市場中佔據最大份額。他們會有這方面的經驗。他們通常在這方面有多年的經驗。因此，某些有利的索賠趨勢中的一部分肯定會涉及到這一點。總的來說，通過我們的續訂計劃的案例，從費率的角度來看還有很多工作要做。我們對 1/1 的完成情況感到非常滿意，因為我們預計通過增加利率來提高利潤。這些都符合我們的預期。正如您想像的那樣，我們正處於 1124 次續訂的中間。那些已經上市，尤其是在較大的一端。我會說這是一個競爭激烈的市場。

To your -- second part of your question. I think it's been a competitive market for a while, there is a sense that perhaps some carriers are leaning in a bit, but nothing that I would say is outside the norm.

對於您的問題的第二部分。我認為這是一個競爭激烈的市場有一段時間了，有一種感覺，也許一些運營商有點傾斜，但我想說的是沒有什麼是超出常態的。

And then the ramp-up in buybacks from $50 million to roughly $75 million, that was sort of something that you had already communicated. But given that your earnings, at least so far this year are trending a lot better than expected. That implies that all else being equal, you should see a further improvement in 2024 and beyond what you would have expected at the beginning of the year, right?

然後回購從 5000 萬美元增加到大約 7500 萬美元，這是你已經傳達過的事情。但考慮到你的收入，至少今年到目前為止的趨勢比預期的要好得多。這意味著在其他條件相同的情況下，您應該會在 2024 年看到進一步的改善，並且會超出您年初的預期，對吧？

Yes. So most of our comments that we had at Investor Day were about 2023, I think those stand. Very happy with how the first quarter results came out. But we've got a lot to do in terms of our overall capital deployment, but the generation looks good. And like I said, as we get towards the end of this year, we'll start to talk about 2024. We've got a few more quarters before we get there where we can talk about what that trajectory would look like. I think we did mention just we kind of gave a rough range, $300 million is kind of something we're expecting looking forward as well, but put a little plus line around it to say that we could increase that. So that's going to be something you're going to hear about more, I think, as we get closer towards the end of this year.

是的。因此，我們在投資者日發表的大部分評論都是關於 2023 年的，我認為這些都是站得住腳的。對第一季度的結果非常滿意。但就我們的整體資本配置而言，我們還有很多工作要做，但這一代人看起來不錯。就像我說的，到今年年底，我們將開始討論 2024 年。在我們到達那里之前還有幾個季度，我們可以討論該軌跡會是什麼樣子。我想我們確實提到了我們給出了一個粗略的範圍，3 億美元也是我們期待的東西，但在它周圍加一點線表示我們可以增加它。所以我認為，隨著今年年底的臨近，你會聽到更多的事情。

Our next question comes from Mike Ward with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的 Mike Ward。

Most of my questions were covered. So maybe I'll just ask one sort of on longer-term capital management, specifically debt capacity in out years. I think you've got a pretty sizable gap between your leverage ratio and your target, almost $1 billion, I think. Just curious if you could frame how you think about that and potential uses of that if you eventually execute on that, take that up?

我的大部分問題都被涵蓋了。所以也許我只會問一種關於長期資本管理的問題，特別是未來幾年的債務能力。我認為您的槓桿率與目標之間存在相當大的差距，我認為接近 10 億美元。只是想知道如果您最終執行它，您是否可以構建您如何看待它以及它的潛在用途，接受它？

Yes, it's a good question. We've managed our leverage over time and certainly, it's been coming down, and we saw that come down again this quarter. I think what you think about that is that distance area gives us a lot of firepower, a lot of capacity to do all the other things that we're talking about. So whether it's cash to holding company, strong capital levels that are enterprise or that debt capacity, all of those kind of work together to think about how we fuel our growth engine. So we feel really good about how that's come down. And we'll have to see how that plays into the overall capital as we look post 2023.

是的，這是個好問題。隨著時間的推移，我們一直在管理我們的槓桿作用，當然，它一直在下降，我們看到本季度再次下降。我想你的想法是，距離區域給了我們很多火力，很多能力來做我們正在談論的所有其他事情。因此，無論是控股公司的現金、強大的企業資本水平還是債務能力，所有這些都共同思考我們如何推動我們的增長引擎。所以我們對它的下降方式感到非常滿意。當我們展望 2023 年後，我們將不得不看看這對整體資本有何影響。

Our next question comes from Maxwell Fritscher from Truist.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist 的 Maxwell Fritscher。

I'm calling in for Mark Hughes today. In regards to a lower interest rate environment, I was wondering if there are any other measures you could take to mitigate the risk of the investment portfolio other than the hedging program?

我今天打電話找馬克休斯。關於較低的利率環境，我想知道除了對沖計劃之外，您是否可以採取任何其他措施來降低投資組合的風險？

Yes, this is Steve. I can take that. I would say we clearly think about it probably in 2 pieces. One is the hedging program that we've talked about. But one of the other things that we've done over time is just thinking kind of around the edges about just asset allocation and where we feel like we're getting value when you do see rates fluctuate. And we did take the opportunity during COVID when there's some disruption in the alternative asset market to take advantage of maybe leaning into that asset class a little bit more.

是的，這是史蒂夫。我可以接受。我會說我們清楚地考慮它可能分為兩部分。一個是我們談到的對沖程序。但隨著時間的推移，我們所做的其他事情之一就是只是考慮資產配置的邊緣，以及當你看到利率波動時我們覺得我們正在獲得價值的地方。我們確實在 COVID 期間抓住了機會，當時另類資產市場出現了一些中斷，以利用可能更多地傾向於該資產類別。

That's really paid dividends for us, which has been great. We backed off of high-yield investments. We didn't think we were getting the value there on a risk-adjusted basis. And so I would say that's another tool that we have. we don't have to buy the market because of the size of our investment portfolio. We can be very selective. And we've proven we've done that. So I'd say that's an area that we've done for years and we'll continue to do is just take advantage of where rates, spreads and just other asset classes might play into our allocation.

這真的為我們帶來了紅利，這很棒。我們退出了高收益投資。我們認為我們沒有在風險調整的基礎上獲得價值。所以我想說這是我們擁有的另一種工具。我們不必因為投資組合的規模而購買市場。我們可以非常有選擇性。我們已經證明我們已經做到了。所以我想說這是我們多年來所做的一個領域，我們將繼續做的只是利用利率、利差和其他資產類別可能在我們的配置中發揮作用的地方。

Our next question comes from Tracy Benguigui with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Tracy Benguigui。

Is my audio working? Can you hear me?

我的音頻正常嗎？你能聽到我嗎？

You're fine. Go ahead, Tracy.

你沒事。去吧，特蕾西。

Hello.

你好。

Yes, we can hear you.

是的，我們能聽到你的聲音。

Okay. Just a quick question. Okay. Great. It looked like you made great progress to the hedging this quarter, it's a little bit higher amount than you typically do. Looking back at the outlook day, you didn't want to provide a forecast because of the accounting rules. Maybe if you could just walk us through maybe this quarter more successful -- and it sounds like you still want to carry that program forward. So any kind of forward-looking guidance would be helpful.

好的。只是一個簡單的問題。好的。偉大的。看起來你們本季度在對沖方面取得了很大進展，比平時多了一點點。回顧展望日，由於會計規則，您不想提供預測。也許如果你能帶領我們度過這個季度，也許會更成功——聽起來你仍然想繼續推進這個項目。因此，任何一種前瞻性指導都會有所幫助。

Yes, Trace, this is Steve. Thanks for the question. We continue to really not give guidance on the expansion of the program. One thing that I will note the dynamic that's going to go on as we go forward is we are hedging periods that are really laddered through a forward-looking 5 years. And there will be a dynamic, which we saw start this quarter, where we are starting to see those hedges roll off and then we're able to then put that money to work, that expected cash flow to work. And so that will build the program over time itself of just extending the time period for which we're actually hedging.

是的，Trace，這是 Steve。謝謝你的問題。我們實際上仍然沒有就該計劃的擴展提供指導。我要指出的一件事是，隨著我們前進，我們將繼續保持動態，我們正在對沖期，這些期實際上是通過前瞻性的 5 年逐步上升的。從本季度開始，我們將看到一種動態，我們開始看到這些對沖減少，然後我們能夠將這筆錢投入使用，即預期的現金流。因此，這將隨著時間的推移構建程序本身，只是延長我們實際對沖的時間段。

So that's part of the dynamic that you're going to see is we're going to be able to continue to expand the program just because of that. We have more cash flows that we're going to work with I would say our desire continues to just make sure we stay on the right side of the accounting guidance and make sure that we get hedge accounting. But I would say it's just being able to move through the program, also get a little bit more surety around projections and really what the cash flow needs will be. So both of those things factored into it a little bit, and we'll just continue to work the program in the way that we have over the last year.

因此，這就是您將看到的動態的一部分，我們將因此能夠繼續擴展該計劃。我們有更多的現金流要處理，我想說的是，我們的願望仍然是確保我們站在會計指導的正確一邊，並確保我們得到對沖會計。但我要說的是，它只是能夠通過該計劃，也能對預測以及現金流量的實際需求有更多的把握。所以這兩件事都考慮到了一點點，我們將繼續按照去年的方式開展該計劃。

Also want to make sure I'm thinking about your new 2023 outlook the right way. So it sounds like the new guide is mostly driven by a better outlook in group disability book. But I want to make sure I'm not missing any other notable factors to consider both favorable or less favorable compared to what you shared in February.

還想確保我以正確的方式思考您的 2023 年新展望。所以聽起來新指南主要是由對團體殘疾書籍的更好展望所推動的。但我想確保我沒有遺漏任何其他值得注意的因素，以考慮與您在 2 月份分享的內容相比有利或不利的因素。

Yes, Tracy. Obviously, when you see the first quarter results, there were small fluctuations across the board, but we basically took all of our first quarter results into consideration and basically bake those into our full year projections. But then if you look at the last 3 quarters, it's really based on group disability loss ratio expectations that would have changed that overall outlook. Again, there's -- on the margins, some puts and takes, maybe across other product lines, but it's all pretty de minimis. So I would think about it just focused on the group disability product line.

是的，特蕾西。顯然，當你看到第一季度的業績時，整體波動很小，但我們基本上將第一季度的所有業績都考慮在內，並將這些納入我們的全年預測。但是如果你看看過去 3 個季度，它實際上是基於團體傷殘損失率的預期，這會改變整體前景。同樣，在利潤率上，有一些看跌期權，可能跨越其他產品線，但這都是微不足道的。所以我認為它只關注群體殘疾產品線。

This concludes our Q&A. I'll now hand back to Rick McKenney, President and CEO, for any final remarks.

我們的問答到此結束。我現在將把最後的評論交還給總裁兼首席執行官里克·麥肯尼 (Rick McKenney)。

Great. Thank you, Elliot. Thanks everybody for joining us today. Clearly, some good results we're happy to bring to the market. We're going to be out there actually talking to a number of investors as well. So you can see us at a number of conferences. We'd love to have further discussion. I appreciate your time today. And with that, Elliot, that wraps up our first quarter earnings call. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝你，埃利奧特。感謝大家今天加入我們。顯然，我們很樂意將一些好的結果推向市場。我們也將在那裡與一些投資者進行實際交談。所以你可以在許多會議上看到我們。我們很樂意進行進一步的討論。我感謝你今天的時間。至此，Elliot，我們的第一季度財報電話會議就此結束。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, today's call has now concluded. We'd like to thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開線路。