U-Haul Holding Co (UHAL) 2006 Q2 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

  • Good afternoon. My name is Jody, and I will be your conference facilitator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the AMERCO second-quarter fiscal 2006 investor call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. (OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS).

  • Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jennifer Flachman, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, ma'am.

  • Jennifer Flachman - Director - IR

  • Thank you for joining us today, and welcome to the AMERCO second-quarter fiscal 2006 investor call. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that certain of the statements during this call regarding general revenues, income, and general growth of our business constitute forward-looking statements contemplated under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. And certain factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected. For a brief discussion of the risks and uncertainties that may affect AMERCO's business and future operating results, please refer to form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2005, which is on file with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

  • Participating in the call today will be Joe Shoen, Chairman of AMERCO. I will now turn the call over to Joe Shoen.

  • Joe Shoen - Chairman

  • Hello. This is Joe Shoen. I'm speaking to you today from Phoenix, Arizona. I will make the entire presentation for the AMERCO fiscal 2006 second-quarter investor conference call. Gary Horton, AMERCO's Treasurer, and Jason Berg, AMERCO's Chief Accounting Officer, will be available during the question-and-answer session.

  • For the six months, earnings per share came in at $4.69 compared to $4.38 per share for the same period last year. As you know, results include a nonrecurring pretax charge of 35.6 million from the first quarter.

  • Our two insurance companies performed on plan. Republic Western's premium continues to decline as it exits non-U-Haul-related risks. Oxford Life Insurance turned in good results and received a ratings upgrade to B+ from the A.M. Best organization.

  • U-Haul performed well in the quarter. Self-moving equipment rental revenue grew about 17.5 million for the quarter.

  • Hurricane Rita disrupted Florida more than the media has been reporting. We are still assessing this disruption to our U-Haul moving business. If there is an impact, it will be in the third quarter.

  • As we discussed last call, in late August, we began adding medium-sized trucks to the U-Haul fleet, and anticipate adding about 7,000 of these units by our fiscal year end. These trucks are required via track lease financing. We continue to have positive interest from track lessors and find the lease finance market to be strong.

  • With the truck additions I just discussed, we finished the quarter with one-way rental truck inventories slightly above the same period last year. This is as we planned. Looking ahead to the third quarter, rental truck inventory will further increase over the prior year and fuel growth compared to that prior period.

  • Sales of moving-related items were solid in the first quarter. Box sales grew faster than truck rental revenue. Towing accessories continue to outperform the same period last year due to improved merchandising. I look for these trends to continue.

  • Self-storage revenue and occupancy growth are proceeding on plan. The Company is methodically pursuing additional self-storage opportunities, both owned and managed. Depending upon the opportunities, we will make a modest capital commitment yet this year to increasing owned self-storage.

  • We continued to complete track refinancings during the quarter, and we are in the process of finalizing a $150 million credit facility that will enable the Company to acquire new trucks directly onto our balance sheet and thus gain the advantage of depreciation. The Company continues to explore initiatives directed at cost containment and reduction -- for the six months revenue increases outpaced cost increases -- overall, AMERCO had a good first half, and is on plan.

  • I will now turn the call back to the moderator and we will go to the question-and-answer session.

  • Operator

  • (OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS). Jim Barrett, CL King.

  • Jim Barrett - Analyst

  • I had a question for you in terms of be real estate loan, and to what degree can you draw upon that loan to finance your growth?

  • Gary Horton - Treasurer

  • And you're talking now about the Merrill Lynch loan that we paid down by a considerable amount?

  • Jim Barrett - Analyst

  • Yes.

  • Gary Horton - Treasurer

  • We can -- we actually have the ability to borrow back all the way up to the original amount of 465 million. However, for each of the years, there is going to be somewhere close to a $30 million amortization that will permanently reduce that. So by the end of the year, you could borrow back -- when we were at the end of the year, we could borrow back to $435 million.

  • Jim Barrett - Analyst

  • That's certainly fairly clear. Could you talk a little bit about -- in your Q you mentioned to maintain the current fleet, you needed to in some shape or form invest $325 million per year over the next three years. Could you -- do you have a forecast as to what degree that number is offset by your projections in terms of -- first of all, used trucks sales?

  • Gary Horton - Treasurer

  • What you have in components of the truck sales is you will have used pickups and vans, which basically fuel its own transaction. Those will be in the 50 to 70 million over the next few years depending on how many trucks we have. And I would say that you would have approximately 35 million of sales of what we'll call box trucks. And then included in there, you will have some leasing activity which will further bring that down to where your net CapEx is probably going to be in the 150 to $175 million -- or I should say to the 200 million range. And that will depend a lot on how many trailers we add -- how much real estate, as Joe just mentioned. There will be some modest amount of dollars spent on storage.

  • Jim Barrett - Analyst

  • Okay. I noticed your building and improvements were up $35 million in the first half. Did that reflect addition to storage already?

  • Gary Horton - Treasurer

  • There was a movement over into and I believe from Rep West into the books. And I think if you look at the total amount, you probably have about -- I'm going to guess around $38 million. There is a little bit of what I would say would be construction of properties that had been in process. But it's the smallest amount.

  • The biggest amount was basically the AMERCO Real Estate and U-Haul Co. of Canada buying out -- buying back the properties that were in Republic Western.

  • Jim Barrett - Analyst

  • I saw that. Thanks.

  • Operator

  • (OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS). Ian Gilson, Granite Financial Group.

  • Ian Gilson - Analyst

  • Joe, could you give us the truck count at the end of the quarter in total?

  • Joe Shoen - Chairman

  • Ian, first of all, do we have the number that we printed in the Q? Okay, I'm going to have to take a guess at it. I'm going to say probably 93,700, up, say, from 93. Relatively I know just what it is. I'm just not sure what the absolute number is, because the number I am quoting and the number we usually quote is the amount that are out being rented. It eliminates anything that's in our for-sale inventory.

  • So I'd say we gained around 700 units over the prior period, which also would be about 700 units over the summer period. So our fleet was actually static or slightly declining most of the prior 12 months, and it started to gain -- it started to stop losing and then gain inventory in the month of August. And maybe by the end of September, we were 700 units ahead. That's a guess. We're going to see it go up probably a couple of thousand units between now and year end.

  • Ian Gilson - Analyst

  • Okay. You had discussed in other conference calls about adding to the large truck fleet. And what is the progress on that?

  • Joe Shoen - Chairman

  • We completed 6,750 large trucks in the middle or end of August. And we began adding medium trucks in August. And we will continue to add them through about mid-March and that will be -- a little north of 7,000 units probably will get added by mid-March. And then in mid-March, we'll undoubtedly switch truck size again and continue adding at pretty much a similar rate -- 300 to 375 a week.

  • Ian Gilson - Analyst

  • Okay. Are these General Motors?

  • Joe Shoen - Chairman

  • These right now -- we're building Fords right now. Ford has a real nice truck in the midsize that we've had excellent results with on maintenance. We know this truck pretty well. This truck is a homerun. We're very confident in it.

  • Ian Gilson - Analyst

  • Okay. How about your square feet under (ph) managed on the self-storage?

  • Joe Shoen - Chairman

  • Good question. I'm going to -- take 33 million and subtract what it shows as owned, and then you'll have managed. You'll be real close. So it's going to be something like 23, 24. Oh, here -- he's showing me a -- let's just see here. Let's say 24 million is going to pretty close again -- 24 million.

  • Ian Gilson - Analyst

  • Okay, utilization rate on that at the moment?

  • Joe Shoen - Chairman

  • As of the end of the quarter, the entire portfolio was about 88.13. At a point in time, utilization gets -- all I have -- I don't have average utilization. I just have like average -- utilization at a given day in my mind.

  • So on the end of September, we were about 88.13. Ordinarily, there's a little seasonality to storage. So it's going to probably sink a little bit below that through the winter, and then probably February start trending up. I'm also at the same time monitoring what we really drive to as far as a metric inside the Company is rooms rented compared to the same day last year. In other words, holding inventory constant, how much did you penetrate into that inventory compared to the same time last year? And that takes seasonality out of it.

  • And we actually finished October a slight bit up over August. So we actually widened our gap in rooms rented going into the slower season. Now I'm not sure I can maintain that all winter. But if I can drive on that all winter -- and that's my intent, is to do it -- in other words, open up the spread over the same time last year. So let's add -- I'm up 19,000 rooms today. If I can be up 19,500 end of December, well, then, I know I've got a real, real strong spring looking me straight in the face.

  • Ian Gilson - Analyst

  • Okay. Do you have many storage areas down on the Gulf and in Florida -- south Florida?

  • Joe Shoen - Chairman

  • We have three places that were very hard-hit -- I mean, like in lost the roof and lost the walls, and maybe -- no, four that actually got water maybe either chest-high or lost the roof in New Orleans metro. Outside of New Orleans metro, we mainly had minor damage -- you know, a wall split or you lost 10 rooms, but nothing of a catastrophic nature.

  • We have at least three quarters of our damaged stuff in New Orleans heading back online, and will be online before this month is out. We're back in business with a vengeance down there. So I think we're actually opening -- our New Orleans repair shop is opening this week. It's been down now for two months, so it's opening back up. It had eight feet of water in it, so -- but it's restaffed. We're reopening. It will start slow, but it will go.

  • We have had more trouble, believe it or not, with the storms in Florida right now. And to give you an idea, it really impacts more the eMoves (ph) than the storage because we have very high occupancy in Florida -- high 90s. So nobody moves out and nobody moves in, you're still going to get paid. So occupancy is good in Florida.

  • But where our disruption has been in is that so many of our dealers, our U-Haul dealers, have been without power in central Florida. On Monday of this week in one area that normally would have 90 dealers reporting in, we had 30 dealers reporting in. In other words, they didn't even -- they weren't able to turn on their computer. Now whether they had no electricity or they were home because their home had no electricity, I don't have an objective way to measure that. But I know I didn't do any business out of them, and any inventory I had parked there was dead inventory.

  • So Florida has been underreported in the media. There's a lot more power outages. It's not dramatic destruction. It's just nothing is happening. So the storage other than the three that were -- or for that were real hard-hit in New Orleans, the hurricane probably helped occupancy because some people -- they were dislocated, so they brought some stuff to our place and stored it for a while, because our place was dry and their house wasn't. We probably picked up a few customers, if you could actually sort it out. But the four stores that were real hard-hit were -- we'll start from scratch, because they're nearly empty stores at this point. All of the people's goods in it was destroyed.

  • Ian Gilson - Analyst

  • And how is eMove doing?

  • Joe Shoen - Chairman

  • eMove is making good progress. We are somewhere north of 2,000 affiliates. We are working on adding more content. Moving help -- component of eMove remains strong, and it's running up in the 80 to 100% over same period last year, in that kind of a range, and that's the range that we have set our target at. We've set our target at 100%. We don't make 100% every month. But in the 80 to 100% range, we're making those kind of increases there, which, since it's a new program, it should operate there for awhile. And so we're basically pleased with the progress.

  • Operator

  • Robert Bruce (ph).

  • Robert Bruce - Analyst

  • Could you tell us -- give us any details on what you're going to do with the 289 million of cash you have on the balance sheet?

  • Joe Shoen - Chairman

  • This is Joe speaking. I'll speak for a moment, and then I'll let either Gary -- probably Gary -- what we're going to -- we're either -- first thing Gary did was he paid down balances a little bit, because -- trying to re-juggle his facility. We've got more availability than we have had in recent years. And we are maintaining that ability still a little while longer. If we see a good opportunity in the self-storage business, we want to be prepared to act. We may in the third and fourth quarter use some of that availability to directly purchase trucks rather than track lease them. And you can burn up 75, 100 million just very quick.

  • And then, as we talked about in prior calls, if we don't determine here pretty soon a way to utilize the money, we'll bring the preferred back in. And that would burn up 150 of it.

  • So we have a couple places to spend it. We're not breaking a leg to do it. We continue to push both for new and better financings that bring our average rate and bring our maturities out. And this most recent one I alluded to for 150 on trucks is going to do a variety of those things. It will hold our rate down and give us maturity that matches real well to the assets.

  • So we're continuing to try to tune up the general financial profile. And even though Gary has made a lot of progress there, it's still a little bit of a work in process. And so we don't have someplace we're going to spend it tomorrow, I guess, is the short answer. If we do spend it, the biggest call on it would be the preferred at 150 million, because that's the biggest single number out there.

  • Robert Bruce - Analyst

  • Is there any thought of maybe possibly paying a cash dividend on the common stock?

  • Joe Shoen - Chairman

  • There hasn't been a lot of discussion about that. I'm a big shareholder myself. And my wife brought it up actually. She doesn't get a big vote. So I don't think that we're there.

  • I think we've got -- it's all borrowed money. I don't know how to look at it. I guess when you're in business, it's always on the margin borrowed money. But it's all borrowed money. And I would be very surprised -- I haven't got much sentiment from my Board of Directors on that. And we don't have a recommendation in to do that, although it's been -- we've put it on -- when we make a list, that's one of the things that goes on the list, but I didn't repeat it because I didn't want to create an expectation. But it's -- you have to logically consider it, but I don't -- that I think is a very low likelihood.

  • Operator

  • (OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS). Jim Barrett, CL King.

  • Jim Barrett - Analyst

  • Joe or Gary, the Rep West transaction of 50 million -- was that, A, for cash? And does that Rep West's rating with an A.M. Best, would you expect? What are of the ramifications of Rep West having liquidated its self-storage units up in Canada?

  • Gary Horton - Treasurer

  • This is Gary. The real thing that we are trying to do is clean up the balance sheet of Rep West and move it over. It won't have any near-term I think effect on the A.M. Best rating. It gives them what I would call more liquidity -- more cash to invest, which again raises the question -- are there investments out there that will give them a good return? When you're not doing any business -- you're going to be investing in high-grade corporates and governments at this time.

  • Jim Barrett - Analyst

  • I see.

  • Joe Shoen - Chairman

  • Jim, let me add a little bit to that, because one of the things we've been methodically doing is trying to develop lots of options for our Board so that when we go to the Board, and they say, well, can we do this, we want to be able to say, you bet you can. Now, should you?

  • And so doing this just cleaned up the relationship between the two companies to where if somebody says whether it's -- what are your options? Well, our options -- we already know -- all of the cards are already out on the table. There's no reshuffling of the deck that would have to occur. And this was the last component of any major size that related us -- the U-Haul business with the property casualty company, so that now that if any decision is made, you say, well, what's the impact? Well, the impact would be an impact on Republic Western or an impact on the parent. Not an impact on the sister company. Does that make sense?

  • Jim Barrett - Analyst

  • Correct. Yes, it does.

  • Joe Shoen - Chairman

  • That's really what it did. I think it also makes the regulators -- it takes away one final thing. You know Republic Western had a bad run with the regulators here in Arizona. And this takes away -- they don't have anything to bellyache about. Now, that doesn't mean they will stop bellyaching. But they don't have a logical reason to complain about anything. And if you ran the numbers on Republic Western, the actual financial numbers, it's a very strong, although very small company. But it's financially a very, very strong company. And it ought to be. It ought to be treated as such by people. I don't expect that either Best or the Arizona Department of Insurance is going to do that because they are going to try to lag reality by one or two years if they can. And okay, that's what they do for a living.

  • But it's -- I think it makes for a very simple analysis of Rep West. There's no -- there can be no doubt in anybody's mind -- is there any crossover or any intercompany pricing that's clouding the financial picture or anything? No, there's none. On some of those sites, we were paying them some rent, so that rent went away. We got an interest bill at U-Haul instead. And for U-Haul, it actually averaged down a little bit because it did, because we got good financing. But we're attempting to continue to have clear alternatives that we can present to the Board of Directors so they can make the best decision they know how.

  • Gary Horton - Treasurer

  • Just as a final one to that, Jim, as a follow-on financing, because we had talked before about doing one in our third-quarter with Oxford, we did a similar financing for the similar reasons in October. And it was probably totally in the $40 million range, I believe, is what we -- the total that we took out of Oxford Life.

  • Jim Barrett - Analyst

  • When you say a follow-up financing, Gary, you mean the parent company took $40 million of cash that was not necessary for Rep West to run its business, and brought it back to the parent?

  • Joe Shoen - Chairman

  • No, just the opposite.

  • Gary Horton - Treasurer

  • We actually did a CMBS financing on both Rep West and on Oxford that basically allowed us to keep virtually all of the cash that we had on hand before the financing to give us the greatest amount of flexibility to use that money when we have actually gone through and determined a use for it.

  • Jim Barrett - Analyst

  • I see. Okay, that's interesting. And then finally, moving back to the truck rental business just for a moment, with all of the new Fleet addition, first of all, Joe, the Q talks about maintaining your Fleet over the next three years. And we already went through the numbers on that. But is that your plan, or is your plan to grow the fleet and therefore spend more than the 150 to $200 million net?

  • Joe Shoen - Chairman

  • Here's -- the plan -- we work on that pretty actively, except for the four hard months of summer where we don't -- we just kind of run. But for instance, right now, we are meeting, going through it, meeting, going through it. It gets extremely specific. If we can identify a 200-truck market where we can incrementally dump in 200 trucks. We're going for it. I mean, okay -- I mean we're going for it.

  • Now, what is that -- at the same time, I find markets that we're lagging in, I suck trucks out of them. Or I don't, my guys do. But this is a constant process.

  • The highest I've ever run the fleet is about 100, 102,000. And we're running say 93, 94 today. So may we expand into that? We very well may. If we do, ordinarily, when we expand the fleet, we do it by deferring sales more than accelerating purchases, if that makes sense. So if we did, you'd probably see us slow down sales a little bit.

  • We're doing right now -- we are accelerating some purchases because we had a real nice trade-off of maintenance against depreciation and interest. So I'm -- in other words, it's just a money deal. It's not -- there's no expansion of the fleet. It's just a pure money deal. I know that I can buy the new truck and between my depreciation, interest, and maintenance, I have a lower net number than against the truck I'm getting rid of. And I know for pretty certain what price I can get rid of it. I've got a lot of these uncertainties worked out.

  • So we're going to continue to do that. And I think the biggest thing that's going to make a difference on the financial statement presentation is if we switched from track leasing everything and we bring some on our books, it's immediately going to what I'll call artificially inflate our CapEx. Our CapEx doesn't change, but the lines that it goes into change, Jim. And so that will -- I've been trying to kind of give people plenty of lead on this so nobody goes, oh, my gosh, oh, my gosh, they're spending $50 million and didn't plan to. Oh, no, no, no -- we planned to spend the money. The question was whether we off-balance-sheeted it with a track, or on-balance-sheeted it with a purchase.

  • And the calculation is -- we're a taxpayer. We can use the depreciation. And how much the combination of what the track lessor will pay us for the depreciation and their implicit cost of funds against our cost of funds and how we value the depreciation moves our decision, so long as we have good availability. And as Robert pointed out earlier, we have availability, so we ought to optimize profits to the corporation.

  • And that's -- if we do make those things, I think it's pretty certain we're going to bring some trucks on balance sheet. The only question is what day we do it. As we do that, it's going to -- the way the accountants book it, it will make CapEx grow, but it's really not growing. It's just re-classing.

  • Gary Horton - Treasurer

  • Two things for everyone on the phone to always look at -- and that is why I've said it a lot -- is always look at EBITDA plus the least expense, because even though -- because it will cause the EBITDA to go up. But again, it's an artificial movement. And so if you look at the two of them, it will give you a more of a straight line.

  • The other thing that's out there that we don't know -- as Cendant breaks up, we don't know what they're going to do with Budget. And that's just another one of those items that you have to look at. Whether you do anything with it or not, it's something out there that could affect. And say they decided just to get out of the truck market, I think that you would see the Board and the marketing people look at adding more trucks to fill that void.

  • Jim Barrett - Analyst

  • Yes, and then -- do your plans suggest that the newer trucks will net -- I understand what it would do to your stated cash flow statements or to CapEx. What would broadly speaking be the ramifications to your earnings? Because I assume for starters, your maintenance goes down, correct?

  • Joe Shoen - Chairman

  • Yes. Gary will try to answer that.

  • Gary Horton - Treasurer

  • What I've looked at, and one of the things that we probably should take -- you should really take a hard look at is as we do this, what you're doing is trading a lease expense for depreciation and interest with -- as you add a new truck, you reduce the maintenance and repair part.

  • What I think you should see is a continuation of what we've shown so far through the six months where we've had about a 17% improvement in margin. So as Joe also mentioned, you see that our revenue is going up faster than our overall expenses, which is the one that drives that margin.

  • Jim Barrett - Analyst

  • Right. And then finally, if the truck fleet is a little bit bigger over the winter time, does that -- I take it -- does that increase your fixed cost over the winter time?

  • Joe Shoen - Chairman

  • Yes, I think it would. How exactly it hits the income statement -- the timing of that is (multiple speakers) beyond. But sure, it does. And what we would be looking to do of course is you want to be in the starting block when the race starts. And that's part of your opportunity. If you could add them all on Labor Day -- I mean Memorial Day, it would be a wonderful thing. But it just doesn't work that way.

  • Gary Horton - Treasurer

  • And the other thing, too, Jim, that happens when you make that decision and you start building inventory, and building up your truck fleet and building up your new CapEx -- what you're doing is with a great deal of potential -- and I'm not going to say it till there (ph) -- all of a sudden, you will reduce your repairs through the winter.

  • Jim Barrett - Analyst

  • I can see that, sure. Thank you both.

  • Operator

  • John Curdy (ph).

  • John Curdy - Analyst

  • I have three questions. I noticed that the earnings from SAC II Holding were down a little bit, even though revenues were up. I was wondering if you could explain that, first off?

  • Joe Shoen - Chairman

  • Okay, why don't you give us all three and then --

  • John Curdy - Analyst

  • Okay. Second question relates to Oxford now with getting the ratings upgrade, what does that portend for possible expansion of the business? And then third, in looking at potential maybe acquisitions in the rental storage area, what are you seeing in terms of opportunities of larger portfolios versus just kind of smaller one-offs or smaller groups of properties?

  • Joe Shoen - Chairman

  • Okay, well, I'm going to handle them in reverse order. I'll take the storage acquisition. I'll give Jason Oxford and possible expansion. And we'll see -- either Jason and Gary will fight over SAC II, okay?

  • So on potential storage acquisition -- of course, the big news out there is that Citibank and Banc of America are shopping the Shurgard portfolio. That's a real nice portfolio of properties with a national presence and good locations. But of course, like anything that's a good candidate, it will go for good money. So over the coming days and weeks as that situation kind of fleshes out, we of course will look at that. And that's a big deal.

  • After that, it falls way, way, way back, at least as far as is on my radar screen. There are routinely a lot of, let's say, 10 to 15 portfolios being shopped right now. And they are going -- they're shopping them at, I think, unrealistically high cap rates. In other words, they perceive this as a seller's market and they want to go in and get REIT multiples for a privately held storage. Well, I don't think that the REITs are going to break a leg to do that, and I don't think that we will either.

  • So that particular group -- you're dealing with pretty aware ownership. And they've kind of set themselves a mark on something like a 16 multiple of NOI 12 months going forward. Well, that's a pretty strong statement. And I'm not so sure we're going to run in on any of that. We haven't so far.

  • Now, on one offs, there still is a decent marketplace for those. And the reason is that the universe -- it's an imperfect marketplace, I guess, like some things are. So once in a while, you can find something that's attractive. But even at that, it would be -- a 10 cap on NOI is today considered a low rate. So, I bought lots of stuff at 6 and 8 cap. So paying 10 times is a lot in my -- it's a lot of a multiple -- it's 6 and 8 multiple. And here, 10 is considered a very low multiple in this market. But it's multiples closer to that that we're an interested buyer, just because we have to have some margin to reward our team too. So we will continue to do that.

  • We continue to look at some building and some conversions. We are the preeminent people in the United States at least on converting other use facilities into storage. That's a vast marketplace. And we are kind of slowly building up our focus on that, or our complement of personnel on that. And just - more stuff is coming on our horizon. And I think when I said in my original remarks that we may spend some money yet this year, my guess is if it's anything over 10 or $15 million, it will be in some conversions rather than outright purchases -- although again, if the opportunity presents itself, we will hit on it.

  • But I don't expect to see us pick up a 10- or 15-store portfolio in the next, say, five months. But we are actively looking at them. And my experience even when it was more a buyer's market was we had to look at 100 to find one that met our criteria. And I would say it'll probably be worse than that now once you run the statistics. But until you've gone through say 1,000 potentials or something, you really haven't ginned up the machine. And we're going through them. And I have staff that is very capable of doing this. And we are going through them and we are picky. So I guess that's what I can tell you for the next five months. And maybe Jason, you can deal with Oxford on the rating and its possible implications for growth or expansion?

  • Jason Berg - Chief Accounting Officer

  • The ratings upgrade to B+ puts Oxford back into the secure rating range for A.M. Best. Before all of the restructuring at Oxford, we got a B++. The ultimate goal is to get back to a B++, which is going to -- would put them back in the place where they were before and kind of open up the same markets.

  • What this does though, it should be able to start turning the trend. As Oxford revenues have been decreasing now over the last year or so because of the ratings, it's going to be a slow turnaround, but this does allow them to get back out, get some of the agent back, and start to turn around in the primary markets that it focuses on. So I wouldn't expect it to be an immediate turnaround in revenues. But hopefully it's going to start to slow down the decline in the revenue and then eventually turn it background with the hope of getting back to a B++, at which point we will see some growth like we saw in the past.

  • John Curdy - Analyst

  • Okay, in terms of how long it might take to get up back to that former rating, would that be like an 18-month to two-year process?

  • Jason Berg - Chief Accounting Officer

  • No, we typically meet with A.M. Best at least once a year. The last time we spoke with them, we said we needed at least to get to a B+ to start the process. And I would say anywhere from six months to a year we could be back there to present the case and see what we can do.

  • Gary Horton - Treasurer

  • One of the things that it does also is it opens up all of the opportunities associated with Oxford because of that higher rating. And it doesn't move it one way or another. It just enhances the whole thing. That makes it much better from a lot of different standpoints.

  • Joe Shoen - Chairman

  • How about on the SAC II -- what's happening with the numbers there?

  • Gary Horton - Treasurer

  • I actually have shown -- and again, does it actually show down or is it slightly up from six months?

  • John Curdy - Analyst

  • I was looking at the quarter -- just in the quarter. For the six months, it's just down barely a couple hundred thousand in earnings before eliminations.

  • Gary Horton - Treasurer

  • Okay, I was looking at an operating income basis. I think there has been changes in cost of sales, which has actually increased. And again, it is for the quarter. For the year to date, it's pretty well stabilized at where it should be at -- Jason, at about what level on the year to date?

  • Jason Berg - Chief Accounting Officer

  • On the year to date, we're at -- looking at those numbers before income tax, or after income taxes --

  • Gary Horton - Treasurer

  • Just on the cost of sales.

  • Jason Berg - Chief Accounting Officer

  • Oh -- on the cost of sales, I don't have that in front of me. I'll get that.

  • Gary Horton - Treasurer

  • Okay.

  • Joe Shoen - Chairman

  • I can speak to -- there's nothing systemic going south there. So I -- it's going to be something -- I'm not quite sure what they're saying has changed in the cost of sales here, but obviously some -- maybe the way they are accruing the cost of sales. So their accounting is a little separate to ours. They changed a little bit how they accrue cost of sales. And so they're more aggressively deducting sales. But the underlying rental profile of the properties is doing great.

  • Operator

  • At this time, there are no further questions. Mr. Shoen, are there any closing remarks?

  • Joe Shoen - Chairman

  • I want to thank all of you for your participation in the call, and encourage you if you know anybody who needs to move or store, send them to U-Haul. God knows we'd like the business. So thank you again. Look forward to seeing you for the third-quarter call.

  • Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes today's AMERCO's second-quarter fiscal 2006 investor call. You may now disconnect.