UFP Industries Inc (UFPI) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the fourth quarter Universal Products, Inc. earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded.

美好的一天，女士們先生們。歡迎來到 Universal Products, Inc. 第四季。收益電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to introduce this conference call to Mr. Brandon Froysland, Director of Finance. You may begin. One moment.

我現在想向財務總監 Brandon Froysland 先生介紹這​​次電話會議。你可以開始了。一會兒。

Welcome to the Universal Forest Products, Inc. Fourth Quarter 2018 Conference Call. Hosting the call today are CEO, Matt Missad; and CFO, Mike Cole. Matt and Mike will offer prepared remarks, and then the call will be opened up for questions. This conference call is available simultaneously and in its entirety to all interested investors and news media through our webcast at www.ufpi.com. A replay will also be available at that website through March 21, 2019. Before I turn the call over to Matt Missad, let me remind you that yesterday's press release and today's presentation include forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the company's expectations and projections. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, those factors identified in the press release and in the filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

歡迎來到環球林產品公司。2018 年第四季電話會議。今天主持電話會議的是執行長 Matt Missad；和首席財務官邁克·科爾。馬特和麥克將提供準備好的發言，然後將開始電話提問。所有有興趣的投資者和新聞媒體均可透過我們的網路廣播 www.ufpi.com 同時觀看本次電話會議的全部內容。截至 2019 年 3 月 21 日，網站還將提供重播。在我將電話轉給馬特·米薩德之前，請允許我提醒您，昨天的新聞稿和今天的演示文稿包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》中定義的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果與公司的預期和預測有重大差異。這些風險和不確定性包括但不限於新聞稿和向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中確定的因素。

At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Matt Missad.

此時，我想將電話轉給馬特·米薩德。

Thank you, Brandon, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our fourth quarter 2018 investor call.

謝謝你，布蘭登，大家早安。歡迎參加我們的 2018 年第四季投資者電話會議。

As you know, our challenge for 2018 was to be greater than before. And once again, our operations met the challenge and set annual records for sales and profits. We also set sales records for the fourth quarter and posted pretax results from operations, which were a fourth quarter record. Like the New Orleans Saints, we know that the final score is what matters, and Q4 net income was not a record. Rather than trying to justify why it should be counted, we will use it as motivation to start a new streak of profit records in 2019.

如您所知，2018 年我們面臨的挑戰比以往更大。我們的業務再次迎接挑戰，創下了年度銷售和利潤記錄。我們還創造了第四季度的銷售記錄，並發布了稅前營運業績，這是第四季度的記錄。就像新奧爾良聖徒隊一樣，我們知道最終的得分才是最重要的，而第四季的淨利潤並沒有創紀錄。我們不會試圖證明為什麼應該計算它，而是將其作為在 2019 年開始新的利潤記錄的動力。

A few highlights for the quarter include, sales reached a record $988.2 million for the quarter and unit sales were up 4%. Annual sales were $4.49 billion, up 14% over 2017. Earnings per share was down 1% for the quarter to $0.50 per share versus 2017. For the year, earnings per share was $2.40, a 24% increase over 2017.

該季度的一些亮點包括，該季度銷售額達到創紀錄的 9.882 億美元，單位銷售額增長 4%。年銷售額為 44.9 億美元，比 2017 年成長 14%。本季每股收益較 2017 年下降 1%，至每股 0.50 美元。今年每股收益為 2.40 美元，比 2017 年增長 24%。

EBITDA for the quarter was $63.6 million, up 11% over 2017. For the year, EBITDA was $266 million, up 12% over 2017. New products sales were $103 million for the quarter and $513 million for the year.

該季度 EBITDA 為 6,360 萬美元，比 2017 年成長 11%。全年 EBITDA 為 2.66 億美元，比 2017 年成長 12%。該季度新產品銷售額為 1.03 億美元，全年新產品銷售額為 5.13 億美元。

For 2019, we have sunset approximately 40 million of new products, which we still sell, but won't consider new and established a new target of 525 million for the year. As you know, we use gross profit dollars per unit as a tool to measure performance. This metric takes out lumber market pricing as a variable. We were very pleased that gross profit dollars per unit grew at more than double the rate of unit growth in the fourth quarter. Also during the fourth quarter, we closed on the acquisition of Pak-Rite, a mixed materials packaging

2019年，我們淘汰了約4000萬個新產品，我們仍在銷售這些產品，但不會考慮新產品，並制定了今年5.25億個的新目標。如您所知，我們使用單位毛利作為衡量績效的工具。此指標將木材市場定價作為變數。我們非常高興第四季每單位毛利的成長速度是單位成長率的兩倍以上。同樣在第四季度，我們完成了對 Pak-Rite 的收購，這是一家混合材料包裝公司

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We are excited about growing this presence throughout our network. We also hired a leader of our alternative packaging materials group, which will help us both with sourcing our internal packaging needs as well as providing additional packaging solutions to our existing and future customers.

我們很高興能夠在整個網路中擴大這一影響力。我們還聘請了替代包裝材料團隊的領導者，這將幫助我們採購內部包裝需求，並為我們現有和未來的客戶提供額外的包裝解決方案。

The industrial space remains a strong focus for growth whether organically or by acquisition. The retail market remain solid, even though, there was a slight dip in sales versus a hurricane recovery-aided 2017.

無論是有機成長還是透過收購，工業領域仍是成長的重點。儘管銷售額與 2017 年颶風復甦後略有下降，但零售市場仍穩健。

Our focus remains on new product sales and expansion of our customer base. We expect continued growth in our expanding portfolio of Deckorators brand products, coupled with professional installations through our growing base of certified Deckorators contractors. We are also expanding our mix of UFP-Edge products with even higher-quality coatings and both smooth and rough surfaces.

我們的重點仍然是新產品銷售和擴大客戶群。我們預計，我們不斷擴大的 Deckorators 品牌產品組合將持續成長，並透過我們不斷成長的經認證的 Deckorators 承包商基礎進行專業安裝。我們還擴大了 UFP-Edge 產品組合，提供更高品質的塗層以及光滑和粗糙的表面。

In the construction market, we saw solid results as well. Manufactured housing saw fewer FEMA orders in Q4 than in 2017, again, due to the abnormal 2017 hurricane replacement orders. Site-built construction remain good in the markets we serve, and we expect the market to remain at levels, which will yield good results for UFP in 2019.

在建築市場，我們也看到了可觀的成果。由於 2017 年颶風更換訂單異常，FEMA 第四季的活動房屋訂單再次少於 2017 年。在我們服務的市場中，現場施工仍然表現良好，我們預計市場將保持在一定水平，這將為 UFP 在 2019 年帶來良好的表現。

In the commercial construction and concrete forming area, we have streamlined our sales efforts and will be growing market share. Increased infrastructure spending could provide a boost too. As you can tell, we are excited about our business. We also recognize that we have areas of improvement, which we aim to correct.

在商業建築和混凝土成型領域，我們簡化了銷售工作，並將持續擴大市場份額。基礎設施支出的增加也可能帶來提振。正如您所知，我們對我們的業務感到興奮。我們也認識到我們有需要改進的地方，我們的目標是糾正這些問題。

We have several underperforming operations that did not meet their ROI targets. They will receive extra attention and focus to get them to target. We continue to analyze our SG&A spending to isolate expansion spending from core SG&A costs. The expansion SG&A spending includes; design specialists, research and testing facilities and personnel, product development and new product launch, expanding our e-commerce capabilities and acquisition-related costs.

我們有幾項業績不佳的業務，沒有達到投資報酬率目標。他們將受到額外的關注和關注，以幫助他們瞄準目標。我們繼續分析 SG&A 支出，將擴張支出與核心 SG&A 成本分開。SG&A 支出的擴張包括：設計專家、研究和測試設施和人員、產品開發和新產品發布，擴大我們的電子商務能力和收購相關成本。

We view these expansionary SG&A costs as an investment in future profitability at higher rates of return. Health care cost continue to exceed budget. And the company absorbed nearly $10 million in excess costs in 2018. We are adjusting the budget for 2019 and will be offering additional benefit options to help our employees better manage their health care costs where possible. Transportation costs have moderated due to lower fuel cost, which helped to fray some of the rising costs for drivers, equipment and regulatory restrictions, which hurt drivers and companies in local delivery situations. We expect higher costs in Q2 and Q3, if volumes approximate 2018 levels, but we have taken steps to mitigate those increases. Labor also remains a challenge. But we are seeing very good results from our investments in technology and automation, which reduced the need for unskilled labor, while still enhancing growth and career opportunities for our production teams.

我們將這些擴張性的銷售、管理及行政費用視為對未來獲利能力的投資，具有更高的回報率。醫療保健費用持續超出預算。2018年，該公司吸收了近1,000萬美元的超額成本。我們正在調整 2019 年預算，並將提供額外的福利選項，以幫助我們的員工在可能的情況下更好地管理他們的醫療保健費用。由於燃料成本下降，運輸成本下降，這有助於緩解司機、設備和監管限製成本上漲的影響，這些成本對當地送貨情況下的司機和公司造成了傷害。如果產量接近 2018 年的水平，我們預計第二季和第三季的成本會更高，但我們已採取措施緩解這些成長。勞動力也仍然是一個挑戰。但我們在技術和自動化方面的投資取得了非常好的成果，減少了對非熟練勞動力的需求，同時仍增強了我們生產團隊的成長和職業機會。

Now I'd like to turn it over to Mike Cole, who'll provide more details on our financial performance.

現在我想將其交給邁克·科爾，他將提供有關我們財務業績的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Matt. Before reviewing the financial, I'll briefly address the lumber market this quarter. The fourth quarter ended up being another challenging quarter for lumber market volatility, as prices dropped significantly from September through November and then remained flat through the end of the year. This trend impacted our profit per unit on products we sell with fixed and variable prices. Fortunately, the strong balance we have in our product mix, along with other positive factors, allowed us to overcome the impact of this volatility and reported an improvement in our profit per unit again this quarter.

謝謝，馬特。在回顧財務狀況之前，我將簡要介紹本季的木材市場。第四季最終成為木材市場波動的另一個充滿挑戰的季度，價格從 9 月到 11 月大幅下跌，然後到年底保持穩定。這種趨勢影響了我們以固定價格和可變價格銷售的產品的單位利潤。幸運的是，我們產品組合的強勁平衡以及其他積極因素使我們能夠克服這種波動的影響，並在本季度再次報告我們的單位利潤有所改善。

The downward trend in lumber prices did impact our overall sales levels though, which I'll walk through now.

不過，木材價格的下降趨勢確實影響了我們的整體銷售水平，我現在將介紹這一點。

Overall sales for the quarter increased 1%, resulting from a 4% increase in unit sales, that was offset by a 3% decrease in selling prices. Organic unit growth this quarter was only 1% though, coming in below what we've reported in previous quarters this year, primarily due to the impact of hurricanes that lifted our retail and manufactured housing unit volumes in the fourth quarter of 2017. Our new product sales initiative was another bright spot this quarter, as new product sales grew 13% and experienced 50 basis points of gross margin improvement.

本季整體銷售額成長 1%，單位銷售成長 4%，但被售價下降 3% 所抵銷。不過，本季的有機單位成長率僅為 1%，低於我們今年前幾季報告的水平，這主要是由於颶風的影響，導致 2017 年第四季我們的零售和製造住房單位數量增加。我們的新產品銷售計畫是本季的另一個亮點，新產品銷售成長了 13%，毛利率提高了 50 個基點。

Breaking down our sales by market. Sales to the retail market decreased $27 million or 8%, resulting from a decline in selling prices of 4%, combined with a unit decrease of 4%. Our unit sales decline was due to hurricane-related volume in the fourth quarter of 2017.

按市場細分我們的銷售額。零售市場銷售額減少 2,700 萬美元，即 8%，原因是銷售價格下降 4%，單位數量減少 4%。我們的單位銷售量下降是由於 2017 年第四季颶風相關的銷售量所造成的。

Excluding the sales decreases we experienced in our Gulf and Texas regions, which were impacted by hurricanes, we estimate our organic unit growth to the retail market was about 3.5% which is in line with results of previous quarters this year.

排除我們在海灣和德州地區受颶風影響的銷售下降，我們估計零售市場的有機單位成長率約為 3.5%，這與今年前幾季的結果一致。

Our sales to the industrial market increased 11%, driven by a 12% increase in units, offset by a 1% decrease in selling prices. Acquisitions contributed 7% to unit growth, while organic growth was about 5%.

由於銷量增加 12%，我們對工業市場的銷售額成長了 11%，但被銷售價格下降 1% 所抵銷。收購對單位成長的貢獻率為 7%，而有機成長約為 5%。

The organic unit increase was primarily driven by adding 134 new customers, 160 new locations of existing customers and $7 million of new product sales growth, as our efforts to improve market share continue to gain traction. Our overall sales to the construction market increased 1% due to a 5% organic unit increase offset by a 4% decrease in selling prices. Within the construction category, our unit sales increased by 18% to commercial construction customers, 7% to residential construction and decreased 3% to manufactured housing. We believe the decline in our unit sales to manufactured housing customers this year was due to an increase in our production last year to fill FEMA orders, resulting from hurricane damage to housing.

隨著我們提高市場份額的努力不斷獲得動力，有機單位的成長主要是由於增加了 134 個新客戶、160 個現有客戶的新地點以及 700 萬美元的新產品銷售成長。我們對建築市場的整體銷售額成長了 1%，這是由於 5% 的有機單位成長被銷售價格下降 4% 所抵消。在建築類別中，我們對商業建築客戶的單位銷售額增加了 18%，對住宅建築客戶的單位銷售額增加了 7%，對製造房屋的單位銷售額下降了 3%。我們認為，今年我們對預製住房客戶的單位銷售量下降是由於去年颶風對住房造成的破壞導致我們為滿足 FEMA 訂單而增加了產量。

Moving down the income statement, our fourth quarter gross profit increased by $8.5 million or nearly 7%, surpassing our 4% growth in unit sales as our profit per unit improved. The overall gross profit increase was comprised of an increase in our construction market of $8.5 million to go along with a $6.5 million improvement in our industrial gross profits, offset by a $2 million decrease in retail and $4.5 million decrease due to unfavorable cost variances due to factors such as higher labor, overhead and transportation costs.

從損益表來看，我們第四季的毛利成長了 850 萬美元，即近 7%，超過了單位銷售額 4% 的成長，因為我們的單位利潤有所改善。整體毛利成長包括建築市場毛利增加 850 萬美元，工業毛利增加 650 萬美元，但被零售毛利潤減少 200 萬美元以及由於不利成本差異而減少 450 萬美元所抵消。成本較高等因素。

Continuing to move down the income statement. SG&A expenses increased about $4.5 million or 5%, which is slightly above our increase in unit sales but was on plan for the quarter, as acquired businesses comprised most of the increase. I should also mention that accrued bonus expense was almost $10 million. This leaves about $82 million in what we call our core SG&A, which was down from about $88 million last quarter.

損益表繼續下移。SG&A 費用增加了約 450 萬美元，即 5%，略高於單位銷售額的增幅，但符合本季度的計劃，因為大部分增長是由收購業務構成的。我還應該提到的是，應計獎金支出接近 1000 萬美元。這使得我們所謂的核心 SG&A 剩下約 8,200 萬美元，低於上季的約 8,800 萬美元。

Gross profit improvements and hitting plan on SG&A allowed us to report operating profit and EBITDA growth of 9.5% and 11%, respectively, well in excess of our 4% unit sales growth.

毛利的改善和 SG&A 的實現計劃使我們的營業利潤和 EBITDA 分別增長了 9.5% 和 11%，遠遠超過了 4% 的單位銷售額增長。

Below the operating profit line, I should point out that our interest costs were up about $1.4 million year-over-year due to higher rates and debt levels, and our investments income was down about $1.9 million due to unrealized losses on investments we carry in our captive insurance subsidiary.

在營業利潤線以下，我應該指出，由於利率和債務水平較高，我們的利息成本同比增加了約140 萬美元，而由於我們持有的投資的未實現損失，我們的投資收入下降了約190萬美元。

Finally, our effective tax rate this quarter was almost 23% compared to 18% last year, when we reduced our net deferred tax liability by about $6.4 million as a result of the tax law change.

最後，我們本季的有效稅率幾乎為 23%，而去年為 18%，去年由於稅法變更，我們的淨遞延稅負債減少了約 640 萬美元。

Moving on to the cash flow statement. Our cash flow from operating activities for the year was $117 million and comprised of net earnings and noncash expenses totaling $213 million, offset by a $96 million increase in working capital since year-end.

繼續看現金流量表。我們本年度經營活動產生的現金流量為 1.17 億美元，其中淨利潤和非現金支出總計 2.13 億美元，被自年底以來增加的 9,600 萬美元營運資金所抵銷。

As I've mentioned on previous calls, we measure our cash cycle to assess our working capital management. Our cash cycle for the fourth quarter increased to 61 days compared to 53 days last year, primarily due to an increase in our days supply of inventory. Given the drop in lumber prices and anticipating a seasonal increase, our plants took advantage of the opportunity to position by inventory for the 2019 selling season.

正如我在之前的電話會議中提到的，我們透過衡量現金週期來評估我們的營運資本管理。我們第四季的現金週期從去年的 53 天增加到 61 天，這主要是由於我們的庫存天數供應增加。鑑於木材價格下跌和預期季節性上漲，我們的工廠利用這個機會為 2019 年銷售季節進行庫存定位。

Investing activities consisted of capital expenditures totaling almost $96 million, including expansionary CapEx and purchases of real estate totaling $45 million. Proceeds from the sale of real estate, including our Medley, Florida facility in Q1, were over $38 million and $54 million spent this year to acquire several companies that serve the industrial wood and packaging space.

投資活動包括總計近 9,600 萬美元的資本支出，其中包括總計 4,500 萬美元的擴張性資本支出和購買房地產。出售房地產（包括第一季位於佛羅裡達州梅德利的工廠）的收益超過 3,800 萬美元，今年花費了 5,400 萬美元收購了幾家為工業木材和包裝領域提供服務的公司。

Financing activities primarily consisted of $16 million in net repayments on our revolving credit facility and $75 million in senior notes issued under our existing shelf facility. We also repurchased almost $25 million worth of our stock this year at an average price of almost $29, and paid over $22 million of dividends at a semiannual rate of $0.18 per share, a 12% increase over last year.

融資活動主要包括我們的循環信貸額度的 1,600 萬美元淨還款以及根據我們現有的貨架額度發行的 7,500 萬美元的優先票據。今年我們也以近 29 美元的平均價格回購了價值近 2,500 萬美元的股票，並以每股 0.18 美元的半年利率支付了超過 2,200 萬美元的股息，比去年增長了 12%。

With respect to our balance sheet and capital structure. Our net debt was about $202 million at the end of Q4 compared to $144 million last year, primarily due to $54 million of funding for business acquisitions.

關於我們的資產負債表和資本結構。截至第四季末，我們的淨債務約為 2.02 億美元，而去年為 1.44 億美元，主要是由於用於業務收購的 5,400 萬美元資金。

Our balance sheet remains under levered and strong, with net debt at only 0.7x EBITDA and less than 16% of our total capitalization.

我們的資產負債表仍處於槓桿狀態且強勁，淨負債僅為 EBITDA 的 0.7 倍，占我們總資本的比例不到 16%。

Consequently, we believe we could add $300 million in debt to continue to grow our business and still feel comfortable with our leverage and capital structure.

因此，我們相信我們可以增加 3 億美元的債務來繼續發展我們的業務，同時仍然對我們的槓桿和資本結構感到滿意。

As we've discussed on previous calls, our highest priorities for capital allocation continue to be capital expenditures and acquisitions. We always seek the highest return for investors, and we'll shift the share repurchases as we did in Q4, if the price falls to predetermined levels.

正如我們在之前的電話會議中討論的那樣，我們資本配置的最高優先事項仍然是資本支出和收購。我們始終為投資者尋求最高回報，如果價格跌至預定水平，我們將像第四季度一樣調整股票回購。

Finally, our trailing 12-month return on invested capital is 14%, exceeding our weighted average cost of capital and up from 13.2% last year primarily due to the decrease in the federal corporate income tax rate.

最後，我們過去 12 個月的投資資本回報率為 14%，超過了我們的加權平均資本成本，並且高於去年的 13.2%，這主要是由於聯邦企業所得稅率的下降。

That's all I have on the financials, Matt.

這就是我對財務狀況的全部了解，馬特。

Thank you, Mike.

謝謝你，麥克。

Now I'd like to open it up for any questions you may have.

現在我想回答您可能有的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Ketan Mamtora with BMO Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Ketan Mamtora。

First question, I want to touch upon, sort of, a high-level what you're seeing in housing? Q4 wasn't great, we know that, H2 also, back half of last year also had some affordability issues. But we've also seen now rates fall quite a bit in the last 3 months, so obviously, a lot of cross currents. Can you talk about what you guys are seeing in your various businesses as you look into the spring season?

第一個問題，我想談談您在住房方面看到的高層情況？第四季表現不佳，我們知道，去年下半年也存在一些負擔能力問題。但我們現在也看到利率在過去 3 個月內大幅下降，因此顯然有許多交叉流。您能談談你們在展望春季時對各種業務的看法嗎？

Yes, I think that's a great question, Ketan. And I just was out at the International Builders Show and talking to a lot of builders. And there's still good optimism. They seem to have a pretty steady flow. The size of the units and other things are things that are adjusting to make it more affordable. But they seem pretty bullish on 2019 still.

是的，我認為這是一個很好的問題，Ketan。我剛剛參加了國際建築商展並與許多建築商交談。而且仍然存在著良好的樂觀情緒。他們似乎有相當穩定的流量。單位的大小和其他東西都在調整，以使其更便宜。但他們似乎仍然對 2019 年相當樂觀。

Okay. Are you seeing, sort of, at least from a broad standpoint any regions within the U.S. that are doing either better or worse than you had expected?

好的。至少從廣泛的角度來看，您是否看到美國境內任何地區的表現比您預期的更好或更差？

Yes, I think, as we talk about it, so our -- on our site-built side, we do very well in the markets that tend to be more stable. During the downturn many years ago, we exited from, what we call, the boom and bust markets, and we haven't gone back in there. For example, California, I think, has probably been impacted more than others in a negative way. But we don't have a huge exposure there. So it's not a concern for us. But where we are heavily concentrated with our site-built operations, again, we feel very good about those particular markets.

是的，我認為，正如我們所談論的那樣，我們的網站建立方面，我們在往往更穩定的市場中做得很好。在多年前的經濟低迷時期，我們退出了所謂的繁榮和蕭條市場，而且我們沒有再回到那裡。例如，我認為加州受到的負面影響可能比其他地區更大。但我們在那裡沒有很大的曝光度。所以這對我們來說不是一個問題。但在我們高度集中於現場營運的地方，我們對這些特定市場感覺非常好。

Got it. That's helpful. And then, turning to the lumber market. As Mike mentioned, we saw a big drop in Q4. It seemed like pricing, at least, on the west SPF grades rallied in the last 6 to 8 weeks, but seems like they are plateauing. What are you guys seeing out there in terms of either inventories or, kind of, just activity?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後，轉向木材市場。正如麥克所提到的，我們看到第四季出現了大幅下降。至少在西方，SPF 等級的價格似乎在過去 6 至 8 週內有所上漲，但似乎已趨於穩定。你們對庫存或活動有何看法？

Yes, I think, what we're seeing is, kind of, a typical seasonal up-tick. And in conversations with a variety of our vendors, they're not looking to see the highs that occurred in 2018. But they look at this being a more typical year. And obviously, the reorder process, which will happen over the next 30 days will help indicate whether inventories in the supply chain at the appropriate levels or not. But they all feel pretty comfortable about where the inventories are in the chain today.

是的，我認為，我們看到的是典型的季節性上升。在與我們的各種供應商的對話中，他們不希望看到 2018 年出現的高點。但他們認為今年是更典型的一年。顯然，未來 30 天內發生的再訂購流程將有助於顯示供應鏈中的庫存是否處於適當水準。但他們都對今天的庫存在供應鏈中的位置感到非常滿意。

Got it. That's helpful. And then, final question from my side. What are you all expecting in terms of CapEx for 2019?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後是我這邊的最後一個問題。你們對 2019 年的資本支出有何期望？

We are planning for about $95 million, Ketan.

Ketan，我們計劃投入約 9,500 萬美元。

$95 million. And how much of that on average is, kind of, just maintenance capital versus more discretionary or expansionary CapEx?

9500 萬美元。平均而言，其中有多少只是維護資本，而不是更多的可自由支配或擴張性資本支出？

We're planning for about $55 million to $60 million in maintenance Capex and about $35 million to $40 million then in expansionary and efficiency CapEx.

我們計劃用於維護資本支出約 5,500 萬至 6,000 萬美元，用於擴張和效率資本支出約 3,500 萬至 4,000 萬美元。

Our next question comes from Dan Jacome with Sidoti.

我們的下一個問題來自 Dan Jacome 和 Sidoti。

Just a couple of questions. First on the construction segment, I saw the price is down 4%. Obviously, your lumber prices volatility. I just -- could you give us a sense in terms to -- on that change versus last year, how much was lumber prices? I just am making sure it wasn't anything else I'm missing.

只是幾個問題。首先在建築領域，我看到價格下降了 4%。顯然，木材價格波動較大。我只是——你能給我們介紹一下——相對於去年的變化，木材價格是多少嗎？我只是確保我沒有遺漏任何其他東西。

Yes, I think it's primarily driven by just year-over-year lumber market. At least, that's what we're seeing.

是的，我認為這主要是由同比木材市場推動的。至少，這就是我們所看到的。

All right. Okay. I figured. And then, SG&A, obviously, you mentioned some discretionary SG&A expenditure. Do you have a sense of what SG&A dollars might be up, I'm not looking for something exact, but would you -- similar cadence to this year in the mid-single digit range? Or should we expect some sort of outlier moving in that?

好的。好的。我估計。然後，SG&A，顯然，您提到了一些可自由支配的 SG&A 支出。您是否知道 SG&A 美元可能會上漲多少，我並不是在尋找確切的數字，但是您是否知道 - 與今年類似的節奏，在中個位數範圍內？或者我們應該期待某種異常情況的發生？

No, I think you're exactly right, kind of mid-single digit is about the right level.

不，我認為你是完全正確的，中間個位數大約是正確的水平。

Got it.

知道了。

And it would be impact unit sales too, Dan, just to be clear, in case lumber market differences.

丹，需要明確的是，這也會影響單位銷量，以防木材市場出現差異。

Sorry, I missed that last point.

抱歉，我錯過了最後一點。

Based on the unit sales basis. So...

以單位銷售量為基礎。所以...

Oh, right, right. Yes, okay. And then, on the Wolverine deal, I don't know if you can comment on it yet. Any thoughts there? I was just wondering what percent of their, maybe, revenue or business is the hospitality segment per se and how much might be other industries?

哦，對了，對了。是的，好的。然後，關於金剛狼交易，我不知道你是否可以發表評論。有什麼想法嗎？我只是想知道他們的收入或業務的百分比是酒店業本身，還有多少是其他行業？

Yes, I think, for the most part, they are a furniture component supplier. And we're really excited about the technology that they have. So for us, that's what we're more focused on. And hopefully, we'll get that transaction completed here in the next 30 to 60 days. And we're excited about it.

是的，我認為，在很大程度上，他們是家具零件供應商。我們對他們擁有的技術感到非常興奮。所以對我們來說，這才是我們更關注的。希望我們能在接下來的 30 到 60 天內完成交易。我們對此感到興奮。

Terrific. It sounds like the management is going to stay into the Universal family for the long term or for the next foreseeable future?

了不起。聽起來管理層將長期或在下一個可預見的未來留在環球家族？

Yes, we certainly hope it's for the long term.

是的，我們當然希望這是長期的。

Okay. Great. And then lastly, I just wanted to pick your brain here on the infra-spending, I don't know if you have any insights on what's happening on the Hill? How likely do you think we'll see something in the next 18 months? Just because of what's happening now and then that was it.

好的。偉大的。最後，我只是想請教一下您關於基礎設施支出的想法，我不知道您對山上發生的事情是否有任何見解？您認為我們在未來 18 個月內看到一些成果的可能性有多大？只是因為時不時發生的事情而已。

Yes, I think the infrastructure spending. Obviously, there seems to be a consensus that more infrastructure spending is needed. Your guess is better than mine, as to whether they can come together and agree on anything. But I would expect that there'll be something that happens midyear or certainly end of Q3, but the scope of it, I couldn't tell you.

是的，我認為是基礎設施支出。顯然，人們似乎達成共識，認為需要更多的基礎設施支出。關於他們是否可以聚在一起並就任何事情達成一致，你的猜測比我的更好。但我預計年中或第三季末會發生一些事情，但其範圍，我無法告訴你。

Our next question comes from Steven Chercover with Davidson.

我們的下一個問題來自戴維森的史蒂文·切爾科弗。

So Matt, you indicated that retail had a tough comp versus 2017. How is it trending through the first half of Q1 '19? And do you expect to post the mid-single digit growth that you enjoyed through the first 3 quarters of last year?

馬特，您表示零售業與 2017 年相比表現不佳。19 年第一季上半年的趨勢如何？您是否預計會實現去年前三個季度的中個位數成長？

I can't really comment on the specifics there, Steve. But I can tell you just, kind of, our outlook. Our outlook is that, it's going to be, kind of in that mid-single-digit range of growth. So we'd expect, again, on a unit sales basis obviously because of the lumber market pricing being down. If you -- if we're focused on unit sales growth that's kind of what we're looking at. And my conversations with the retail community indicate that, that's what their expectation is.

史蒂夫，我無法對具體細節發表評論。但我可以告訴你我們的展望。我們的前景是，成長將在中等個位數範圍內。因此，我們預計，顯然是因為木材市場定價下降，以單位銷售為基礎。如果你 - 如果我們專注於單位銷售成長，這就是我們所關注的。我與零售業的對話表明，這就是他們的期望。

Yes, I don't know how the market will react to the tiny EPS miss, but I thought your EBITDA performance was really good, and I know that's how you focus on margin dollars. Switching to inventories, they were up 21% year-over-year, which, I guess, is a little surprising given how lumber fell in the quarter. So would you say that maybe, you took a bigger advantage of what was a pretty compelling lumber market that you had in the last several years?

是的，我不知道市場會對每股盈餘的微小偏差有何反應，但我認為你們的 EBITDA 表現非常好，而且我知道這就是你們關注利潤率的方式。轉向庫存，年增 21%，考慮到本季木材的下降，我想這有點令人驚訝。那麼您是否會說，也許您從過去幾年中相當引人注目的木材市場中獲得了更大的優勢？

Yes, I think we were fairly aggressive on our positioned buying this year. Obviously, we can take long positions because we are going to deliver the products, and we feel very comfortable with what we've done so far. And the takeaway, so far, has been consistent with what we expected. So we would expect our inventory levels to drop, as they typically would by end of Q3 or first part of Q -- end of Q2 or first part of Q3.

是的，我認為我們今年的定位購買相當激進。顯然，我們可以持有多頭頭寸，因為我們將交付產品，並且我們對迄今為止所做的事情感到非常滿意。到目前為止，結果與我們的預期一致。因此，我們預計我們的庫存水準會下降，通常會在第三季末或第三季上旬（即第二季末或第三季上旬）下降。

Yes, I mean, I know you don't speculate. So that's a testament to your comfort, I suppose. And then finally, with -- buying in stock at an average price of $29 seems pretty darn compelling to me. So would you say that your shares, even up a wee bit, remain more compelling than most of the deals you're seeing in the marketplace?

是的，我的意思是，我知道你不會猜測。所以我想這證明了你的舒適度。最後，以 29 美元的平均價格購買股票對我來說似乎非常有吸引力。那麼，您是否認為您的股票即使上漲了一點點，仍然比您在市場上看到的大多數交易更具吸引力？

Yes. I think if you, kind of, look at the EBITDA multiples out there. Although, they've moderated a fair bit since, kind of, mid-last year, they're still aggressive for any deals of significant size. So obviously, we love our company. And we believe the value is there, so that's certainly something that we look at all the time.

是的。我想如果你看看 EBITDA 倍數。儘管自去年年中以來，他們的態度已經有所緩和，但他們對於任何規模較大的交易仍然積極進取。顯然，我們熱愛我們的公司。我們相信價值是存在的，所以這肯定是我們一直在關注的事情。

Yes, well the integration risk is pretty low too.

是的，整合風險也相當低。

And I'm not showing any further question at this time.

目前我不會提出任何進一步的問題。

Well, thank you again. And as you can tell, we are very excited about the future and the opportunities for both unit sales improvement and profit growth. Our focus is on providing an excellent return to our shareholders over the long term. And fortunately, we have an outstanding team of over 12,000 members, who work hard every day to achieve that goal. I am very proud of what they have accomplished so far and know that we are capable of much, much more in the future. And you can tell from our share repurchases last quarter, that we see great value in our company, especially when we can purchase at a significant discount to what we believe the fair value to be. Thank you again for your investment and trust in us. Have a great day.

嗯，再次謝謝你。如您所知，我們對未來以及銷​​售改善和利潤成長的機會感到非常興奮。我們的重點是長期為股東提供卓越的回報。幸運的是，我們擁有一支由超過 12,000 名成員組成的優秀團隊，他們每天都在努力實現這一目標。我對他們迄今為止所取得的成就感到非常自豪，並且知道我們未來有能力做得更多。從我們上個季度的股票回購中可以看出，我們看到了我們公司的巨大價值，特別是當我們可以以比我們認為的公允價值大幅折扣的價格購買時。再次感謝您對我們的投資和信任。祝你有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's presentation. You may now disconnect and have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，今天的演講到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接並度過美好的一天。