United Fire Group Inc (UFCS) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Drew, and I will be your conference operator today.

早安.我叫德魯，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。

At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the UFG Insurance second-quarter of 2025 financial results conference call.

現在，我歡迎大家參加 UFG 保險 2025 年第二季財務業績電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Please note this event is being recorded.

請注意，此事件正在被記錄。

Thank you. I will now turn the call over to UFG Vice President of Investor Relations, Tim Borst.

謝謝。現在我將把電話轉給 UFG 投資者關係副總裁 Tim Borst。

Good morning and thank you for joining this call. Yesterday afternoon, we issued a press release on our results. To find a copy of this document, visit our website at ufginsurance.com. Press releases and slides are located under the Investors tab. Joining me today on the call are UFG President and Chief Executive Officer Kevin Leidwinger Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer Julie Stephenson and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Eric Martin. Before I turn the call over to Kevin, a couple of reminders. First, please note that our presentation today may include forward looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward looking statements are based on current expectations, estimates, forecasts, and projections about the company, the industry in which we operate, and beliefs and assumptions made by management. The company cautions investors that any forward looking statements include risks and uncertainties and are not a guarantee of future performance. Any forward looking statement made by us in this presentation is based only on information currently available to us and speaks only as of the date on which it is made.

早上好，感謝您參加本次電話會議。昨天下午，我們發布了有關結果的新聞稿。如需本文檔副本，請造訪我們的網站 ufginsurance.com。新聞稿和投影片位於「投資者」標籤下。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有 UFG 總裁兼執行長 Kevin Leidwinger、執行副總裁兼營運長 Julie Stephenson 以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Eric Martin。在我將電話轉給凱文之前，有幾個提醒。首先，請注意，我們今天的演示可能包含《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案》中定義的前瞻性陳述。此類前瞻性陳述是基於對公司、我們所處行業的當前預期、估計、預測和預計，以及管理層的信念和假設。該公司提醒投資者，任何前瞻性陳述都包含風險和不確定性，並不能保證未來的表現。我們在本簡報中所做的任何前瞻性陳述僅基於我們目前掌握的信息，並且僅代表陳述之日的觀點。

These forward looking statements are based on management’s current expectations, and the company assumes no obligation to update any forward looking statements. The actual results may differ materially due to a variety of factors, which are described in our press release and SEC filings, discussed specifically in our most recent annual report on Form 10 ks. Also, note that in our discussion today, we may use some non GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these measures to the most comparable GAAP measures are also available in our press release and SEC filings. At this time, I will turn the call over to Mr.

這些前瞻性陳述是基於管理階層目前的預期，本公司不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。由於多種因素，實際結果可能存在重大差異，這些因素已在我們的新聞稿和美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 文件中描述，並在我們最近的 10ks 表格年度報告中進行了具體討論。另外，請注意，在我們今天的討論中，我們可能會使用一些非 GAAP 財務指標。我們的新聞稿和 SEC 文件中也提供了這些指標與最具可比性的 GAAP 指標的對帳。現在，我將把電話轉給先生。

Kevin Leidwinger, CEO of UFG Insurance.

UFG 保險執行長 Kevin Leidwinger。

Thank you, Tim. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our second quarter conference call. I’ll begin this morning by providing a high level overview of our results. Following my comments, Julie Stephenson will discuss our underwriting results, and Eric Martin will discuss our financial results in more detail. UFG delivered strong results in the second quarter, growing net written premium to a record $373,000,000 with the highest second quarter underwriting profit in more than ten years.

謝謝你，提姆。大家早上好，歡迎參加我們的第二季電話會議。今天上午我將首先對我們的研究結果進行概述。在我發表評論之後，朱莉·史蒂芬森 (Julie Stephenson) 將討論我們的承保結果，埃里克·馬丁 (Eric Martin) 將更詳細地討論我們的財務結果。UFG 在第二季度取得了強勁的業績，淨承保保費增長至創紀錄的 3.73 億美元，並創下十多年來第二季度承保利潤的最高紀錄。

The benefits of our ongoing strategic actions continue to materialize in our results, with improved underwriting and investment income delivering a 10% return on equity through the first half of the year, a significant milestone in the company’s ongoing transformation. Second quarter net written premium growth of 14% was driven by improved retention, record new business production and rate increases that continue to exceed loss trends.

我們持續採取的策略行動所帶來的好處持續體現在我們的績效中，承保和投資收益的改善使今年上半年的股本回報率達到 10%，這是公司持續轉型的一個重要里程碑。第二季淨承保保費成長 14%，這得益於留存率的提高、新業務的創紀錄增長以及費率上漲繼續超過損失趨勢。

The second quarter combined ratio improved 9.2 points to 96.4%, with all components of the combined ratio contributing favorably. Underlying loss ratio improved 1.3 points to 57.6%, reflecting the ongoing benefits of strong earned rate achievement and moderating loss trends from continued underwriting discipline. In the second quarter, we recognized modest favorable prior year reserve development of $5,000,000 following our annual review of loss adjustment expenses while continuing to strengthen our overall loss reserve position against the uncertainties of social inflation.

第二季綜合成本率提高 9.2 個百分點至 96.4%，綜合成本率的所有組成部分均有良好貢獻。基礎損失率改善了 1.3 個百分點，達到 57.6%，反映了強勁的收益率和持續的承保紀律帶來的損失趨勢緩和帶來的持續效益。在第二季度，經過對損失調整費用的年度審查，我們確認了上年儲備金適度增長 5,000,000 美元，同時繼續加強我們的整體損失準備金狀況，以應對社會通膨的不確定性。

Our second quarter catastrophe loss ratio of 5.5% was considerably below historical averages as well as our quarterly expectation of 8.9%. Catastrophe losses through the first half of the year remained below our expectations despite unusual first quarter wildfires.

我們第二季的災難損失率為 5.5%，遠低於歷史平均值以及我們季度預期的 8.9%。儘管第一季發生了異常的野火，但上半年的災難損失仍低於我們的預期。

We continue to actively manage our exposure and believe the strategies we’ve implemented in recent years are favorably impacting the catastrophe loss ratio and are reflected in our annual plan of 5.7%. Underwriting expense ratio improved just over half a point to 34.9% in the quarter. The improvement from prior year reflects the benefits of growth funding strategic investments in talent and technology necessary for sustained success.

我們繼續積極管理我們的風險敞口，並相信我們近年來實施的策略對巨災損失率產生了積極影響，並反映在我們 5.7% 的年度計劃中。本季承保費用率改善了半個百分點，達到 34.9%。與前一年相比的改善反映了成長資金對持續成功所必需的人才和技術的策略性投資的好處。

Net investment income increased 20% from prior year with sustainable improvement in fixed maturity income as we continue to invest at yields well above the portfolio average. We are pleased with our performance in the second quarter and through the 2025. We remain committed to executing our strategic business plan to achieve superior financial and operational performance. I’ll now hand it over to Julie Stephenson, our Chief Operating Officer, to discuss our underwriting results in more detail.

由於我們繼續以遠高於投資組合平均水準的收益率進行投資，固定期限收益持續改善，淨投資收益較上年增長了 20%。我們對第二季以及整個 2025 年的表現感到滿意。我們將繼續致力於執行我們的策略業務計劃，以實現卓越的財務和營運績效。現在我將把時間交給我們的營運長朱莉‧史蒂芬森 (Julie Stephenson)，更詳細地討論我們的核保結果。

Thank you, Kevin. Net written premium grew 14% in the second quarter, with gross written premium increasing 12% and exceeding $400,000,000 for the first time in our company’s history. Net written premium in our core commercial business, which includes small business, middle market, and construction, grew 20% in the second quarter compared to prior year on continued strong production results. Second quarter rate achievement of 7.6% moderated somewhat from the first quarter. We are comfortable that overall price levels are still contributing to profitability, with this quarter’s rate achievement continuing to exceed our view of loss trends.

謝謝你，凱文。第二季淨承保保費成長 14%，總承保保費成長 12%，公司史上首次超過 4 億美元。由於生產業績持續強勁，我們核心商業業務（包括小型企業、中型市場和建築業）的淨承保保費在第二季度比去年同期增長了 20%。第二季利率達 7.6%，較第一季略有下降。我們很高興看到，整體價格水準仍在為獲利做出貢獻，本季的利率表現持續超出我們對虧損趨勢的預期。

As our results mature, favorable frequency trends are holding, and recent results show continued improvement. Additionally, although we are subject to the same severity pressures as the rest of the industry, our underwriting efforts are starting to manifest in more stable and moderating severity outcomes. Commercial property rate achievement slowed in the quarter, but remained strong, just under 10%. Commercial auto, umbrella, and general liability all experienced rate increases in the upper single digits. Retention improved almost five points to 86% in the second quarter, most notably in Small Business and Middle Market.

隨著我們的研究結果日趨成熟，有利的頻率趨勢正在保持，最近的結果顯示出持續的改善。此外，儘管我們與業內其他公司一樣面臨同樣的嚴重壓力，但我們的承保努力已開始體現出更穩定和緩和的嚴重程度結果。本季商業房地產利率表現放緩，但依然強勁，略低於 10%。商業汽車險、綜合險和一般責任險的費率均出現了個位數的上漲。第二季度，保留率提高了近 5 個百分點，達到 86%，其中小型企業和中型市場尤其明顯。

This higher retention figure is reflective of our increasing comfort level with the portfolio we have built over the past several years. During that time, we improved risk selection and accelerated our pricing to reflect the exposures in the portfolio. We’ve built a robust analytical framework to more confidently underwrite, price, and manage our business. As our improved loss ratio suggests, we believe our current portfolio is well positioned to serve as a foundation to achieve our objective of producing consistent, profitable growth over the long term. We’ve worked tirelessly with our agency partners to align our evolving capabilities to attract a more expansive customer base, and we are building momentum.

這一更高的留存率反映了我們對過去幾年建立的投資組合越來越滿意。在此期間，我們改進了風險選擇並加快了定價以反映投資組合中的風險敞口。我們建立了強大的分析框架，以便更自信地承保、定價和管理我們的業務。正如我們的損失率改善所表明的那樣，我們相信我們目前的投資組合已做好準備，為長期持續獲利成長的目標奠定基礎。我們與代理商合作夥伴不懈合作，以協調我們不斷發展的能力，吸引更廣泛的客戶群，並且我們正在積累動力。

This is evident in new business production that eclipsed $100,000,000 for the first time, with all business units experiencing double digit increases. Construction and Middle Market led the way with the most new business in the quarter, with average account size increasing in line with our enhanced capabilities to respond to more complex exposures. Our Specialty E and S business showed strong new business growth for the quarter in both Property and Excess Casualty. Retention moderated due to some nonrecurring builders risk accounts, but rate achievement remained strong.

這體現在新業務產值首次突破 1 億美元，所有業務部門均達到兩位數成長。建築業和中型市場在本季新業務最多，平均帳戶規模隨著我們應對更複雜風險的能力的增強而增長。本季度，我們的專業 E 和 S 業務在財產保險和超額意外險方面均表現出強勁的新業務成長。由於一些非經常性建築商風險帳戶，保留率下降，但利率表現依然強勁。

Surety growth was strong and double digit for the quarter in response to continued profitable results, demonstrating excellent underwriting discipline.

由於持續獲利，本季保證金成長強勁，達到兩位數，體現了出色的核保紀律。

Alternative distribution continues to provide UFG with profitable business through three primary channels: treaty, programs, and funds at Lloyd’s. Growth was more modest in the second quarter as we chose to non renew a handful of treaties that no longer met our profitability standards, along with some turnover in our program business. We remain selective to ensure the capacity we deploy in this profitability objectives. The underlying loss ratio improved 1.3 points to 57.6% in the second quarter and improved 2.1 points to 57% through the 2025 compared to the same period last year. The portfolio continues to benefit from consistently strong earned rate achievement and favorable frequency trends observed across our portfolio.

替代分銷繼續透過三個主要管道為 UFG 提供盈利業務：勞合社的合約、計劃和基金。第二季的成長較為溫和，因為我們選擇不再續簽一些不再符合獲利標準的條約，同時我們的專案業務也出現了一些營業額。我們保持選擇性以確保我們部署的產能能夠實現獲利目標。與去年同期相比，第二季基礎損失率改善了 1.3 個百分點，達到 57.6%，到 ​​2025 年則改善了 2.1 個百分點，達到 57%。該投資組合繼續受益於我們投資組合中持續強勁的收益率成就和有利的頻率趨勢。

In the second quarter, we completed our annual review of adjusting and other, or A and O, expenses. This analysis of the fixed portion of our loss adjustment expenses resulted in $5,000,000 of favorable prior year development associated with lower than anticipated loss adjustment expenses paid in 2024. This represents a partial release of the indicated amount, limited to lines with more predictable claim activity.

在第二季度，我們完成了對調整和其他費用（或 A 和 O 費用）的年度審查。對我們的損失調整費用固定部分的分析導致上一年有利的發展金額為 5,000,000 美元，而 2024 年支付的損失調整費用低於預期。這代表著所示金額的部分釋放，僅限於具有更可預測的索賠活動的線路。

Although A and reserves are related to our loss reserves, we do not believe they are subject to the same degree of uncertainty and impact from social inflation. In addition to the annual review of A and O expenses, we completed our quarterly review of loss reserves.

儘管A和準備金與我們的損失準備金有關，但我們認為它們不會受到同等程度的不確定性和社會通膨的影響。除了對 A 和 O 費用進行年度審查外，我們還完成了對損失準備金的季度審查。

We continue to build a conservative position in our loss reserves as we’ve consistently increased our position in the actuarial range of indications. Favorable results across several lines of business, including auto, property, and BOP, were partially offset by some individual umbrella loss activity in older accident years. Although more selective underwriting criteria have been in place in recent years, we remain guarded with our results in umbrella due to its inherent exposure.

我們繼續在損失準備金中建立保守立場，因為我們一直在精算指標範圍內不斷增加我們的立場。汽車、財產和 BOP 等多個業務領域的良好業績，並被過去事故年份的一些個人綜合損失活動部分抵消。儘管近年來已經實施了更具選擇性的承保標準，但由於其固有的風險，我們仍然對傘式保險的表現持謹慎態度。

We strive to position our reserves in the upper end of our actuarial estimates across all accident years, including the current year. Catastrophe loss ratio of five point five percent was well below both the five year and ten year averages of 1311.5%, respectively.

我們努力將我們的儲備金定位在所有事故年份（包括今年）的精算估計的上限。巨災損失率為5.5%，遠低於五年和十年的平均值1311.5%。

We are pleased with our results this quarter given the level of storm activity observed, and we believe our recent underwriting and portfolio management efforts have contributed to this favorable outcome. As an example, year over year, our modeled all perils gross average annual loss decreased 11% due to the underwriting guideline improvements such as increased deductibles, while premium increased by 2.6%. I’m pleased to be able to show continued progress in improving our property catastrophe risk profile over time. Our current year to date catastrophe loss ratio of 5.3% is below our expectations at this point in the year. If we continue on this path, we’ll realize a favorable result relative to our full year expectations of 5.7%.

考慮到觀察到的風暴活動水平，我們對本季度的業績感到滿意，並且我們相信我們最近的承保和投資組合管理工作促成了這一有利結果。例如，與去年同期相比，由於核保指南的改善（例如免賠額的增加），我們模擬的所有風險年總平均損失下降了 11%，而保費卻增加了 2.6%。我很高興能夠展示我們在改善財產巨災風險狀況方面不斷取得的進展。我們今年迄今的巨災損失率為 5.3%，低於我們今年目前的預期。如果我們繼續沿著這條道路前進，我們將實現相對於全年 5.7% 的預期有利的結果。

I’ll now turn the call over to Eric Martin to discuss the remainder of our financial results.

現在我將把電話轉給 Eric Martin，討論我們剩餘的財務表現。

Thank you, Julie. We continued to deliver sustainable improvement in net investment income in the second quarter. Our high quality fixed income portfolio generated 34% more income than in prior year. Our extensive portfolio repositioning actions in 2024 continued to generate favorable tailwinds, while second quarter new purchase yields of 5.4% continued to exceed the overall portfolio yield by approximately 100 basis points. The elevated interest rate environment continues to provide opportunities to sustainably grow fixed maturity income and overall earnings.

謝謝你，朱莉。我們在第二季度持續實現淨投資收益的可持續改善。我們的高品質固定收益投資組合產生的收入比前一年增加了 34%。我們在 2024 年採取的廣泛投資組合重新配置行動繼續產生有利的順風，而第二季度 5.4% 的新購買收益率繼續超過整體投資組合收益率約 100 個基點。高利率環境持續為固定期限收入和整體收益的持續成長提供機會。

Outside of fixed income, our portfolio of approximately $100,000,000 of investments in limited partnerships generated a positive but lower return than in recent quarters. Many of these limited partnership investments contain equity like exposure and are at increased risk of volatility in the currently turbulent market. Turning to the expense ratio. The second quarter result of 34.9% represents a return to a more normalized result following a couple of recent quarters with elevated results. The year over year improvement of 0.6 points reflects the benefits of disciplined management actions and profitable growth.

除了固定收益之外，我們在有限合夥企業中投資的約 1 億美元的投資組合產生了正回報，但低於最近幾季的回報。許多有限合夥投資都包含類似股權的風險敞口，在當前動盪的市場中，波動風險較大。談到費用比率。第二季的業績為 34.9%，代表在最近幾季業績成長之後，業績恢復到更正常的狀態。年比 0.6 個百分點的改善反映了嚴謹的管理措施和獲利成長帶來的好處。

We expect our ongoing actions on these fronts to continue to benefit the expense ratio over time. Second quarter net income was $0.87 per diluted share with non GAAP adjusted operating income of $0.90 per diluted share. This quarter’s earnings improved book value per common share to $33.18 Adjusted book value per share, which excludes the impact of unrealized investment losses, grew $0.77 to $34.93 at quarter end. From a capital management perspective, during the second quarter, we declared and paid a $0.16 per share cash dividend to shareholders of record as of 06/06/2025. On July 10, we successfully issued $30,000,000 of Series B notes to fill out our 2024 capital raise.

我們預計，我們在這些方面採取的持續行動將隨著時間的推移繼續有利於費用率。第二季淨收入為每股攤薄收益 0.87 美元，非 GAAP 調整後每股稀釋營業收入為 0.90 美元。本季的收益使每股普通股帳面價值提高至 33.18 美元，調整後的每股帳面價值（不包括未實現投資損失的影響）在季度末增長 0.77 美元至 34.93 美元。從資本管理角度來看，在第二季度，我們宣布並向截至 2025 年 6 月 6 日登記在冊的股東派發每股 0.16 美元的現金股利。7 月 10 日，我們成功發行了 30,000,000 美元的 B 系列票據，以完成 2024 年的融資。

We appreciate the investment community’s continued support of UFG’s strategies to deliver profitable growth. This concludes our prepared remarks. I will now have the operator open the line for questions.

我們感謝投資界對 UFG 實現獲利成長策略的持續支持。我們的準備好的演講到此結束。我現在讓接線員開通熱線來回答問題。

(operator instruction)

（操作員指令）

Jason Weaver with Jones Trading.

瓊斯貿易公司的傑森‧韋弗 (Jason Weaver)。

Hi, good morning guys. Thanks for taking my question. I see that the non variable part of underwriting expense declined by about $4,000,000 or 1.6% thereabouts. Can you talk about your trajectory on sort of improving your expense ratios there and what we should expect going forward for run rate?

大家早安。感謝您回答我的問題。我發現承保費用中的非變動部分下降了約 4,000,000 美元或 1.6% 左右。您能否談談您在改善費用率方面的軌跡以及我們對未來運行率的預期？

Good morning, Jason. Thanks for calling in. Thanks for the question. You’re right.

早上好，傑森。感謝您的來電。謝謝你的提問。你說得對。

We are down, pretty decent amount from Q1. And I think in our first quarter call, we talked about that being a little bit of an unusual quarter, a little higher than normal. So right now, as we’re around 35%, and as we’ve got a good growth trajectory going forward, that’s going to help us get some fixed leverage or some leverage on fixed cost. So we’re this is a pretty normal quarter for us. There wasn’t anything unusual.

與第一季相比，我們的下降幅度相當大。我認為，在我們的第一季電話會議上，我們談到這是一個有點不尋常的季度，比正常情況略高一些。因此，現在我們的利潤率約為 35%，而且我們未來擁有良好的成長軌跡，這將幫助我們獲得一些固定槓桿或固定成本槓桿。所以這對我們來說是一個非常正常的季度。並沒有什麼不尋常的事情。

I think this is a good run rate as you look forward for the next few quarters here.

我認為，展望未來幾個季度，這是一個很好的運行率。

All right. That’s helpful. And I wonder, just given the positive reserve development, if you have any visibility into that for the second half?

好的。這很有幫助。我想知道，鑑於積極的儲備發展，您是否對下半年的情況有所預見？

I mean, I would say we're not in a position to predict what will happen in the second half of the year. Hopefully the trends that we're seeing will continue, but not in a position to predict.

我的意思是，我們無法預測今年下半年會發生什麼事。希望我們所看到的趨勢能夠持續下去，但無法預測。

Got it. Well, thank you for taking.

知道了。好的，謝謝你的接受。

My questions.

我的問題。

Paul Newsome with Piper Sandler.

保羅·紐瑟姆和派珀·桑德勒。

Good morning. Congratulations on the results. Maybe some thoughts on the competitive environment and as you see it and for your business, a lot of talk this quarter, amongst the public companies that are reporting about sort of an acceleration of competition, but it’s been very sort of spot dependent, seems to be more property, also more reinsurance maybe. Anyway, loved as you kind of look at your portfolio of businesses, are you seeing similar, different? And maybe you could just kind of give us an overview in general of how you see the incremental changes in the competitive environment?

早安.恭喜你取得這樣的成績。也許我對競爭環境有一些想法，正如您所看到的，對於您的業務而言，本季度有很多上市公司報告稱競爭有所加速，但這在很大程度上取決於具體情況，似乎更多的是房地產，也可能是再保險。無論如何，當您審視您的業務組合時，您看到了相似之處還是不同之處？或許您可以向我們概述一下您如何看待競爭環境的漸進式變化？

Yes. I mean, I think that certainly it remains a competitive market when isn’t it. I do think that we’re seeing some moderation in rates, but it wasn’t terribly unexpected. It’s been building, I think, for the last few quarters, especially in property, we certainly saw it even our own results. I would say that even in light of that rate moderation, we still very confident that we can compete in the market and we can continue to grow.

是的。我的意思是，我認為它肯定仍然是一個競爭激烈的市場，不是嗎？我確實認為我們看到利率有所緩和，但這並不令人意外。我認為，過去幾個季度以來，這種趨勢一直在持續，尤其是在房地產領域，我們甚至從自己的業績中也看到了這一點。我想說的是，即使利率有所緩和，我們仍然非常有信心在市場上競爭，並且能夠繼續成長。

We’re seeing a greater percentage of our portfolio made up of accounts we’ve written in the last couple of years, and we feel like that we have made the right risk selection and the right pricing moves on those risks that position us well to compete in the marketplace. So yeah, we see them moderating, but we feel good about the future and continued growth throughout the rest of the year.

我們發現，在我們的投資組合中，過去幾年開設的帳戶所佔比例越來越大，我們覺得，我們做出了正確的風險選擇，並對這些風險採取了正確的定價措施，這讓我們在市場上具有良好的競爭力。所以，是的，我們看到它們正在放緩，但我們對未來以及今年剩餘時間的持續成長感到樂觀。

Any differences between the reinsurance business versus the primary business?

再保險業務與主保險業務有何不同？

I think the reinsurance business has been softer. Certainly, have seen the pricing deteriorate a little bit. You will have noticed that we actually decided to non renew a few treaties in this period that no longer met our profit expectations, and so we’ll watch that carefully coming into conference season to see how the reinsurance market’s going to react as we prepare for one. Great.

我認為再保險業務已經變得疲軟。當然，價格確實有所下降。您可能已經注意到，我們實際上決定在此期間不再續簽一些不再符合我們利潤預期的條約，因此我們將在會議季節到來時密切關注再保險市場將如何反應。偉大的。

And maybe some further comments about the work you’ve done with the catastrophe management. It’s been definitely trending in the right direction. The second quarter historically is the most volatile quarter for the attachment result for United Fire, I believe. And, just wondering how much if you could is there any way to parse what happened here between the sort of underlying improvements that you’ve been making versus what maybe was a little bit of just good luck favorable

也許您也可以就您在災難管理方面所做的工作發表一些進一步的評論。它確實正朝著正確的方向發展。我認為，從歷史上看，第二季度是聯合消防公司扣押結果最不穩定的一個季度。我只是想知道，如果可以的話，有什麼方法可以分析一下這裡發生的事情，看看你一直在做的那些潛在的改進，還是可能只是運氣好而已

We ask that question all the time, Paul. We ask if we’re lucky or good, and we try to make a distinguish between the two. I’d say that we’re really confident that we’re managing our cat exposures far better today than what is reflected in our historical averages. I think that’s what gives us the confidence to set the annual catastrophe plan where we’ve set it. And so if we look under the hood of that to say, okay, well, why are we managing it better today?

我們一直在問這個問題，保羅。我們會問自己是否幸運或優秀，並試著區分這兩者。我想說的是，我們非常有信心，我們今天對貓風險的管理比歷史平均好得多。我認為這就是讓我們有信心製定年度災難計劃的原因。所以如果我們深入研究一下，好吧，為什麼我們今天管理得更好了？

We’re getting considerable traction on deductibles and severe convective storm. That’s our largest exposure, as you know, as a company. We’ve improved our risk profile of the risks that we’re putting on the books, and we feel like we’re getting sufficient pricing, and that’s terrific as far as setting the right tone for managing CAT going forward. On the hurricane side, we really took a hard reset on our risk profile, especially in Florida. We did that about a year ago now, and we also see that coming through in improved modeled outcomes.

我們在免賠額和強對流風暴方面取得了相當大的進展。如您所知，這是我們公司最大的曝光機會。我們已經改善了我們帳面上的風險狀況，並且我們感覺我們獲得了足夠的定價，這對於為未來管理 CAT 奠定正確的基調來說非常棒。在颶風方面，我們確實對我們的風險狀況進行了嚴格的重置，特別是在佛羅裡達州。我們大約在一年前就開始這樣做了，我們也看到了模型結果的改善。

So we’re feeling good about where we’re headed from a cat perspective, and we hope that the trends that we’re seeing over the last eight quarters or so of our cat loss ratios being below those historical averages will continue.

因此，從貓的角度來看，我們對我們的發展方向感到滿意，並且我們希望過去八個季度左右我們的貓損失率低於歷史平均水平的趨勢能夠持續下去。

Great thank you I appreciate the help as always much appreciated.

非常感謝，我一如既往地感謝您的幫助。

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Kevin Lightwinger for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給 Kevin Lightwinger 做閉幕發言。

Well thank you for joining us this quarter and we look forward to talking with you again next quarter.

非常感謝您本季加入我們，我們期待下個季度再次與您交談。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The conference has now concluded.

會議現已結束。

Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。