UDR Inc (UDR) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to UDR's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加 UDR 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次電話會議正在錄音。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Vice President of Investor Relations, Trent Trujillo. Thank you, Mr. Trujillo, you may begin.

現在我很高興介紹您的主持人、投資者關係副總裁 Trent Trujillo。謝謝您，特魯希略先生，您可以開始啦。

Thank you, and welcome to UDR's quarterly financial results conference call. Our press release, supplemental disclosure package, and related investor presentation were distributed yesterday afternoon and posted to the Investor Relations section of our website, ir.udr.com. In the supplement, we have reconciled all non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure in accordance with Reg G requirements. Statements made during this call, which are not historical, may constitute forward-looking statements. Although we believe the expectations reflected in any forward-looking statement are based on reasonable assumptions, we can give no assurance that our expectations will be met. A discussion of risks and risk factors are detailed in our press release and included in our filings with the SEC. We do not undertake a duty to update any forward-looking statements.

謝謝，歡迎參加 UDR 的季度財務業績電話會議。我們的新聞稿、補充揭露文件和相關投資者介紹已於昨天下午發布，並發佈在我們網站 ir.udr.com 的投資者關係部分。在補充報告中，我們已根據 Reg G 的要求將所有非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標進行協調。本次電話會議所作的陳述並非歷史性的，但可能構成前瞻性陳述。儘管我們相信任何前瞻性陳述中反映的預期都是基於合理的假設，但我們無法保證我們的預期將會實現。有關風險和風險因素的討論已在我們的新聞稿中詳細說明，並包含在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中。我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的責任。

When we get to the question-and-answer portion, we ask that you be respectful of everyone's time and limit your questions to one plus a follow-up. Management will be available after the call for your questions that did not get answered during the Q&A session today.

當我們進入問答環節時，我們要求您尊重每個人的時間，並將您的問題限制為一個加上一個後續問題。通話結束後，管理階層將解答您在今天問答環節中未得到解答的問題。

I will now turn the call over to UDR's Chairman and CEO, Tom Toomey.

現在我將電話轉給 UDR 董事長兼執行長湯姆·圖米 (Tom Toomey)。

Thank you, Trent, and welcome to UDR's fourth-quarter 2024 conference call. Presenting on the call with me today are President, Chief Financial Officer, and Chief Investment Officer, Joe Fisher; and Chief Operating Officer, Mike Lacey. Senior Officer, Andrew Cantor, will also be available during the Q&A portion of the call.

謝謝特倫特，歡迎參加 UDR 2024 年第四季電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的有總裁、財務長兼首席投資長喬費雪 (Joe Fisher)；和首席營運長邁克·萊西（Mike Lacey）。資深官員 Andrew Cantor 也將出席此次電話會議的問答環節。

First, I'd like to congratulate Mike on his well-deserved promotion to Chief Operating Officer; and Joe for his appointment as Chief Investment Officer. Both Mike and Joe have been exceptional leaders, driven value creation, and have positively influenced UDR's culture. As Joe transitions from his role as CFO, we have commenced an executive search process to fill this critical role. We are early in process, and we'll update you as progress is made.

首先，我要祝賀麥克當之無愧地晉升為營運長；並任命喬為首席投資長。麥克和喬都是傑出的領導者，推動價值創造，並對 UDR 的文化產生了積極影響。隨著喬從財務長職位離任，我們已經開始了高階主管搜尋流程來填補這個關鍵職位。我們正處於早期階段，一旦取得進展，我們將及時通知您。

Moving on. In conjunction with our earnings release, we published a presentation that highlights our outlook for 2025, complete with what we see as the drivers of potential outcomes. Our prepared remarks align with the presentation, and those on our webcast can see the slides on your screen. We will resume our usual format for the balance of earnings calls in 2025.

繼續。在發布收益報告的同時，我們發布了一份演示文稿，重點介紹了我們對 2025 年的展望，以及我們所看到的潛在結果的驅動因素。我們準備好的發言與演講內容一致，參加網路直播的人員可以在螢幕上看到幻燈片。我們將在 2025 年恢復通常的收益電話會議形式。

Next, turning to slide 4. Key takeaways from our release and 2025 outlook are: one, fourth quarter and full-year 2024 FFOA per share results, net guidance expectations, while same-store results exceeded our guidance midpoints. Two, based on consensus estimates, we expect economic growth and apartment demand will remain resilient in 2025. This growth profile should be enhanced by supply pressures abating in the back half of the year from the historically high levels experienced in 2024. Three, ongoing investments in innovation including advancing our customer experience project should continue to drive incremental NOI growth in excess of the broader market in 2025.

接下來，翻到投影片 4。我們發布的內容和 2025 年展望的關鍵要點是：第一，2024 年第四季度和全年 FFOA 每股業績、淨指導預期，而同店業績超過了我們的指導中點。二、根據普遍預期，我們預計2025年經濟成長和公寓需求將保持強勁。供應壓力將從 2024 年的歷史高點逐漸減弱，這將進一步促進這一成長態勢。第三，持續的創新投資（包括推進我們的客戶體驗專案）應能繼續推動 2025 年淨營運收入增量超過大盤。

Fourth, despite an elevated cost of capital, we are positioned to take advantage of external growth opportunities when appropriate. We will continue to utilize various sources of capital including existing joint ventures and operating partnership unit deals to accretively grow the company while heeding cost capital signals. Fifth and final, our balance sheet is well positioned to fully fund our capital needs in 2025 and beyond.

第四，儘管資本成本較高，但我們仍有能力在適當的時候利用外部成長機會。我們將繼續利用各種資本來源，包括現有的合資企業和營運合作夥伴單位交易，在關注成本資本訊號的同時，實現公司的成長。第五，也是最後一點，我們的資產負債表已經做好準備，能夠充分滿足我們 2025 年及以後的資本需求。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Joe.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給喬。

Thank you, Tom. Topics I will cover today include our fourth quarter and full-year 2024 results, including recent transactions, the 2025 macro outlook that drives our full year guidance, and the building blocks of our 2025 guidance. First, beginning with slide 5. Our fourth quarter and full-year FFO as adjusted per share of $0.63 and $2.48 achieved the midpoint of our previously provided guidance. Additionally, our same-store results meet expectations with NOI growth that was above the high end of our guidance range.

謝謝你，湯姆。我今天將討論的主題包括我們的 2024 年第四季和全年業績，包括最近的交易、推動我們全年指引的 2025 年宏觀前景以及我們 2025 年指引的基礎。首先，從投影片 5 開始。我們第四季度和全年的調整後每股 FFO 分別為 0.63 美元和 2.48 美元，達到了我們之前提供的指引的中點。此外，我們的同店業績符合預期，淨營業收入成長高於我們預期範圍的高端。

During the quarter, we shifted to an occupancy-focused strategy similar to the fourth quarter last year and built occupancy going into 2025. Occupancy trended sequentially higher for each month during the fourth quarter, resulting in a 50-basis-point sequential improvement versus the third quarter. As anticipated, this occupancy pivot resulted in slightly lower blended lease rate growth versus original fourth-quarter expectations, but it was the right decision to maximize NOI in 2024 and place our portfolio in a position of strength as we enter our traditional leasing season.

在本季度，我們轉向了與去年第四季類似的以入住率為中心的策略，並計劃在 2025 年實現入住率目標。第四季入住率每個月都呈現連續上升趨勢，與第三季相比連續提高了 50 個基點。正如預期的那樣，此次入住率調整導致混合租賃率增長略低於最初的第四季度預期，但這是正確的決定，可以在 2024 年最大化 NOI，並在我們進入傳統租賃季節時使我們的投資組合處於優勢地位。

Thus far in 2025, we have maintained occupancy above 97% which is approximately 30 basis points higher than our fourth-quarter average. Underlying market rent growth has turned positive sequentially and is following normal seasonal patterns. New lease rate growth has largely bottomed across our regions, and renewal lease rate growth remains healthy in the mid-4% range. We are encouraged by these results.

截至目前，2025 年我們的入住率一直維持在 97% 以上，比第四季的平均入住率高出約 30 個基點。基礎市場租金成長已連續轉為正值，並遵循正常的季節性模式。我們各地區的新租賃率成長已基本觸底，續租租賃率成長仍維持在 4% 左右的健康水準。這些結果令我們感到鼓舞。

Turning to slide 6 and our macro outlook. As in the years past, we utilized top-down and bottom-up approaches to set our 2025 macro and fundamental forecast. Our 2025 rent growth forecast of 2% was informed by third-party forecast and consensus expectations for a variety of economic factors that drive rent growth and our internal forecasting models. Among the positive factors are favorable GDP, job and wage growth, a continued decline in home ownership rate due to elevated mortgage rates, and lower total housing supply. We combined this top-down forecast with a bottom-up growth estimate built by our regional teams as they best understand local supply and demand dynamics in their markets.

轉到幻燈片 6 和我們的宏觀展望。與過去幾年一樣，我們採用自上而下和自下而上的方法來製定 2025 年的宏觀和基本預測。我們對 2025 年租金成長 2% 的預測是基於第三方預測和對推動租金成長的各種經濟因素的普遍預期以及我們的內部預測模型得出的。積極因素包括有利的GDP、就業和工資增長、由於抵押貸款利率上升導致的房屋自有率持續下降以及住房總供應量減少。我們將這種自上而下的預測與由我們的區域團隊建立的自下而上的成長估計相結合，因為他們最了解當地市場的供需動態。

Our 2% rent growth forecast for 2025 is slightly conservative when compared to prominent third-party forecasters estimates in the mid-2% range. In short, our outlook is driven by stable demand set against declining multifamily supply while factoring in macro uncertainties such as immigration reform and regulatory risk.

與知名第三方預測機構估計的 2% 中間水準相比，我們對 2025 年租金成長 2% 的預測略顯保守。簡而言之，我們的前景是由穩定的需求與多戶型住房供應下降相結合所驅動，同時考慮到移民改革和監管風險等宏觀不確定性。

Turning to slide 7. We remain encouraged by a variety of key supply and demand metrics that are supportive of positive near- to intermediate-term fundamentals for the apartment industry. First, at the top left, our residents' financial health remains resilient with rent-to-income ratios below the long-term average. Second, at the top right, relative affordability versus alternative housing options remains decidedly in our favor at roughly 60% less expensive to rent than own, a 25% improvement from pre-COVID. This supports a stable to declining homeownership rate, and absent a major correction in home prices or a significantly more accommodative long-term interest rate environment, we do not expect this dynamic to change.

翻到幻燈片 7。我們仍然受到各種關鍵供需指標的鼓舞，這些指標支持公寓行業的近期至中期積極基本面。首先，在左上角，我們居民的財務狀況仍然保持強勁，租金收入比低於長期平均。其次，在右上角，與其他住房選擇相比，相對可負擔性仍然明顯對我們有利，租房成本比買房成本低約 60%，比新冠疫情之前提高了 25%。這支持了房屋自有率的穩定至下降，並且，如果房價沒有大幅調整，或者長期利率環境沒有明顯更為寬鬆，我們預計這種動態不會改變。

Third, at the bottom left, the latest census statistics indicates that the largest US age cohorts remain in their prime renter years. This should provide continued support for long-term rental demand. And fourth, at the bottom right, while multifamily deliveries are expected to remain above historical average levels at the beginning of 2025, development start activity has significantly retreated and is down approximately 65% from recent highs and is now well below historical averages. This should benefit rent growth in late 2025 and beyond.

第三，在左下角，最新的人口普查統計數據表明，美國最大的年齡群體仍然處於租房的黃金年齡。這應該會為長期租賃需求提供持續的支援。第四，在右下角，雖然預計到 2025 年初多戶型住宅交付量仍將高於歷史平均水平，但開發開工活動已大幅回落，較近期高點下降了約 65%，目前遠低於歷史平均水平。這將有利於 2025 年底及以後的租金成長。

Moving on to slide 8. Third-party data providers are forecasting full-year 2025 multifamily deliveries in the US and in our markets to be similar to the historical averages. Based on development completion data, peak deliveries occurred in the middle of 2024 and should trend downwards below long-term historical averages in the second half of 2025. We are cognizant that there will be supply slippage as we move through the year, and that lease-up concessions could remain prevalent for a period of time after the pace of new deliveries abates. Where concessions move throughout 2025 will be a key driver to our ability to capitalize on our rent growth forecast.

轉到投影片 8。第三方數據提供商預測，2025 年全年美國和我們市場的多戶型住宅交付量將與歷史平均值相似。根據開發完成數據，交付高峰出現在 2024 年中期，並將在 2025 年下半年呈現低於長期歷史平均值的下降趨勢。我們意識到，隨著時間的推移，供應將出現下滑，而且在新車交付速度減緩後，租賃優惠政策仍可能在一段時間內繼續盛行。2025 年優惠政策的走向將成為我們能否利用租金成長預測的關鍵驅動因素。

On slide 9, we provide more context on which regions expected to feel the greatest impact from 2025 supply. The Sunbelt is forecast to face new supply deliveries to the tune of approximately 4% of existing inventory, which is twice as much as coastal markets. Positively, Sunbelt Supply is down by nearly 1/3 compared to 2024 completions, while new supply across our coastal markets is, on average, similar to 2024. Mixing this all together, we arrived at our 2025 guidance, which is summarized on slide 10.

在第 9 張幻燈片中，我們提供了更多背景信息，說明預計哪些地區將受到 2025 年供應的最大影響。預計陽光地帶將面臨約佔現有庫存 4% 的新增供應，是沿海市場的兩倍。積極的一面是，與 2024 年的完工量相比，陽光地帶的供應量下降了近 1/3，而我們沿海市場的新增供應量平均與 2024 年相似。綜合以上所有因素，我們得出了 2025 年的指導方針，該指導方針在第 10 頁中有總結。

Primary expectations include full-year FFOA per share guidance of $2.45 to $2.55 and same-store revenue and expense growth expectations that translate to NOI growth of 1.75% at the midpoint, which is 25 basis points better than full-year 2024 results.

主要預期包括全年每股 FFOA 指引 2.45 美元至 2.55 美元，以及同店收入和支出增長預期，這意味著中間值 NOI 增長 1.75%，比 2024 年全年業績高出 25 個基點。

Slide 11 shows the building blocks for our full-year 2025 FFOA per share guidance at the $2.50 midpoint, which represents a 1% year-over-year increase. Drivers include a $0.10 increase from same-store revenue and lease-up income from recently developed communities, offset by a $0.05 decrease from same-store expenses, a $0.01 increase from interest expense due to a lower average debt balance, which mitigates the impact from the midyear expiration of certain hedges, a $0.01 decrease from G&A and property management expenses reflective of inflationary wage growth, and a $0.03 decrease from joint venture and debt and preferred equity activities due to a combination of the following two items.

投影片 11 顯示了我們 2025 年全年 FFOA 每股指引價格的基礎，中間值為 2.50 美元，年成長 1%。驅動因素包括同店收入和來自新開發社區的租賃收入增加 0.10 美元，但同店支出減少 0.05 美元，抵消了這一變化；利息支出增加 0.01 美元，原因是平均債務餘額較低，減輕了某些對沖在年中到期的影響；一般股及行政費用和物業管理費用減少 0.01 美元，反映了通膨性工資

First, a $0.02 decrease attributable to moving to nonaccrual status for our debt and preferred equity investment in 1300 Fairmount located in Philadelphia, which we previously disclosed. And second, a $0.01 decrease attributable to the pending sale of the company affiliated with a one-off technology investment. Should the transaction occur, UDR's $43 million of notes receivable that earn 12% interest would be converted into equity of the acquiring company. We are excited that the company we chose to support and help build is expected to be acquired by an industry leader and exchanging our notes for equity is the prudent long-term economic decision. We have received various inquiries pertaining to the risk in our debt and preferred equity book. So here are important considerations to help provide transparency.

首先，減少 0.02 美元，歸因於我們對位於費城 Fairmount 1300 號的債務和優先股投資轉為非應計狀態，我們之前已披露過此事。其次，由於一次性技術投資相關的公司即將出售，因此下降了 0.01 美元。一旦交易發生，UDR 價值 4,300 萬美元、年利率 12% 的應收票據將轉換為收購公司的股權。我們很高興，我們選擇支持和幫助建立的公司被期望被行業領先者收購，並用我們的票據交換股權是審慎的長期經濟決策。我們收到了有關我們的債務和優先股帳簿風險的各種詢問。因此，這裡有一些重要的考慮因素來幫助提供透明度。

1300 Fairmount was our largest investment risk. And by moving that investment to nonaccrual status and taking a reserve, we believe we have largely derisked this book of business. There remain two investments on our watchlist, totaling approximately $40 million, which would represent $0.01 or less than 0.5% of FFOA per share in the event of nonaccrual. However, for these investments, we have been encouraged by their recent operating trajectories, and the senior loans for each do not mature until mid-2026.

1300 Fairmount 是我們最大的投資風險。透過將該投資轉為非應計狀態並提列準備金，我們相信我們已經在很大程度上降低了這筆業務的風險。我們的關註名單上仍有兩項投資，總額約為 4,000 萬美元，如果不計提，則代表每股 0.01 美元或不到 FFOA 的 0.5%。然而，對於這些投資，我們對它們最近的營運軌跡感到鼓舞，每筆投資的優先貸款都要到 2026 年中期才到期。

Moving on to slide 12. Specific to the first quarter, our FFOA per share guidance range is $0.60 to $0.62 or an approximately 3% sequential decrease at the $0.61 midpoint. This is driven by a $0.01 decrease from same-store NOI, primarily due to higher expenses attributable to normal seasonal trends and a $0.01 decrease from a lower debt and preferred equity investment balance due to recent paydowns and the aforementioned tech investment.

轉到投影片 12。具體到第一季度，我們的每股 FFOA 指引範圍為 0.60 美元至 0.62 美元，或以 0.61 美元的中間值環比下降約 3%。這是由於同店淨營業利潤下降 0.01 美元所致，主要由於正常季節性趨勢導致的費用增加，以及最近的還款和前面提到的技術投資導致的債務和優先股投資餘額減少 0.01 美元。

Last, on slide 13, we provide our debt maturity schedule and liquidity. Only 10% of our total consolidated debt matures through 2026, thereby reducing future refinancing risk. Combined with more than $1 billion of liquidity, the $211 million of proceeds from our recently completed first-quarter property dispositions, minimal committed capital and strong free cash flow, our balance sheet sits in an excellent position. In all, our balance sheet and liquidity remain in excellent shape. We remain opportunistic in our capital deployment, and we continue to utilize a variety of capital allocation competitive advantages to drive long-term accretion.

最後，在第 13 張投影片中，我們提供了債務到期計畫和流動性。我們合併後的總債務中只有 10% 將在 2026 年到期，從而降低了未來的再融資風險。加上超過 10 億美元的流動資金、我們最近完成的第一季房地產處置所得的 2.11 億美元收益、最低的已承諾資本和強勁的自由現金流，我們的資產負債表處於極佳狀態。總體而言，我們的資產負債表和流動性仍然保持良好狀況。我們在資本配置上依然保持機會主義，並持續利用各種資本配置競爭優勢來推動長期成長。

With that, I will turn the call over to Mike.

說完這些，我將把電話轉給麥克。

Thanks, Joe. Today, I'll cover the following topics. How our 2024 results and other drivers factored into the building blocks of our full-year 2025 same-store revenue growth guidance, an update on our various innovation initiatives, expectations for operating trends across our regions, and our 2025 outlook for same-store expense growth.

謝謝，喬。今天，我將討論以下主題。我們的 2024 年業績和其他驅動因素如何影響我們 2025 年全年同店收入增長指引的基礎、我們各種創新計劃的最新情況、對我們各地區運營趨勢的預期以及我們對 2025 年同店費用增長的展望。

Turning to slide 14. The primary building blocks of our 2025 same-store revenue growth guidance include our embedded earn-in from 2024 lease rate growth, our blended lease rate growth expectations for full-year 2025, and contributions from our innovation and other operating initiatives. Starting with our 2025 earn-in of 60 basis points, which is about half of our historical average and in line with our earn-in from a year ago. The 50-basis-point sequential increase in average occupancy we achieved during the fourth quarter of 2024, led to slightly lower blended rate growth and resulted in earning towards the lower end of the range that I spoke to on our third-quarter earnings call. We believe this was a prudent operating strategy that will position us well as 2025 progresses.

翻到第 14 張投影片。我們 2025 年同店營收成長指引的主要基礎包括 2024 年租賃率成長所帶來的內含收益、2025 年全年混合租賃率成長預期以及我們的創新和其他營運計畫帶來的貢獻。從我們 2025 年的 60 個基點的收益開始，這大約是我們歷史平均值的一半，與我們一年前收益一致。我們在 2024 年第四季實現的平均入住率環比增長 50 個基點，導致混合房價增長略有下降，並導致收益趨向於我在第三季度財報電話會議上談到的範圍的低端。我們相信，這是一個審慎的營運策略，將使我們在 2025 年取得良好進展。

Next, portfolio blended lease rate growth is forecast to be approximately 2.5% in 2025. This is 100-basis-point higher than what we achieved in 2024, which matches our expectations for year-over-year rent growth improvement. We expect blends will be lighter through the first half of 2025 before improving during the second half of the year as supply pressures lessen. This dynamic, if accurate, means that blended rate growth should contribute approximately 90 basis points to our full-year 2025 same-store revenue growth and have a positive flow-through impact on 2026 earn-in. Underlying our blended rate growth forecast are assumptions of approximately 4% rate growth in 2025 and approximately 1% new lease rate growth on average.

接下來，預計 2025 年投資組合混合租賃率成長率將達到約 2.5%。這比我們在 2024 年實現的目標高出 100 個基點，符合我們對逐年租金成長改善的預期。我們預計，到 2025 年上半年，混合油的品質將會變得更輕，而隨著供應壓力的減輕，下半年品質將會有所改善。如果這種動態準確的話，則意味著混合利率成長將為我們 2025 年全年同店營收成長貢獻約 90 個基點，並對 2026 年的獲利產生正面的流通影響。我們對混合利率成長預測的基礎是，2025 年利率成長約 4%，新租賃利率平均成長約 1%。

Moving on innovation and other operating initiatives are expected to add approximately 65 basis points to our 2025 same-store revenue growth, which equates to $10 million to $15 million or approximately 7% growth for this line item. The bulk of this growth should come from the continued rollout of property-wide Wi-Fi, other property enhancements such as further penetration on package lockers, improved retention and less fraud. For retention, our guidance assumes that our 2025 resident turnover will be 100 basis points below that of 2024. Equating to approximately $3.5 million of higher cash flow. This improvement should be driven by our proprietary customer experience project, which helps us improve our residents' experience throughout their time with UDR.

創新和其他營運措施預計將為我們 2025 年的同店營收成長增加約 65 個基點，相當於 1,000 萬美元至 1,500 萬美元，或該計畫約 7% 的成長。這項成長主要應來自於持續推廣涵蓋整個飯店的Wi-Fi，以及其他飯店的改進，如進一步普及包裹儲物櫃、提高客戶保留率和減少詐欺行為。為了保留，我們的指導假設我們 2025 年的居民流動率將比 2024 年低 100 個基點。相當於約 350 萬美元的更高現金流。這項改進應由我們專有的客戶體驗專案推動，這有助於我們改善居民在使用 UDR 期間的體驗。

Thereby increasing their probability of renewal. Today, our efforts have resulted in higher resident retention on a year-over-year basis for 21 consecutive months. We continue to enhance how we measure, map and orchestrate the customer experience, which we believe will drive further year-over-year improvement in turnover and margin expansion in the years ahead.

從而增加他們續約的機率。今天，我們的努力已經連續21個月讓住戶留任率較去年同期成長。我們將繼續增強衡量、繪製和協調客戶體驗的方式，我們相信這將推動未來幾年營業額和利潤率的逐年提升。

Last, we expect the combination of higher occupancy and reduced bad debt to provide a modest positive contribution to same-store revenue growth in 2025. Regarding fraud, recall that in mid-2024, we implemented a variety of AI-based detection measures, process improvements and credit threshold reviews to enhance our upfront resident screening. We have seen the benefits of these efforts in recent bad debt trends, resulting in more favorable results in recent quarters.

最後，我們預期更高的入住率和減少的壞帳將對 2025 年同店收入成長產生適度的正面貢獻。關於欺詐，回想一下，在 2024 年中期，我們實施了各種基於人工智慧的檢測措施、流程改進和信用門檻審查，以加強我們的前期住戶篩檢。我們在最近的壞帳趨勢中看到了這些努力的好處，從而帶來了最近幾季更為有利的業績。

Rolling all this up, our 2025 same-store revenue guidance ranges from 1.25% to 3.25%, with a midpoint of 2.25%. The 3.25% high end of our same-store revenue growth range is achievable through improved year-over-year occupancy, additional accretion from innovation and blended lease rate growth that occurs more rateably throughout the year or at a higher level than our initial forecast. Conversely, the low end of 1.25% reflects the inverse scenario, with full year blended lease rate growth closer to flat, some level of occupancy loss and delayed income recognition from our innovation initiatives.

綜合以上所有因素，我們對 2025 年同店營收的預期範圍為 1.25% 至 3.25%，中間值為 2.25%。我們同店收入成長範圍的高端 3.25% 是透過提高同比入住率、創新帶來的額外成長以及全年更可觀或高於我們最初預測的混合租賃率成長來實現的。相反，1.25%的低端反映的是相反的情況，全年混合租賃率增長接近持平，一定程度的入住率損失以及我們創新舉措的收入確認延遲。

Turning to Slide 15 and our regional revenue growth expectations, we expect the coast will continue to perform better than the Sunbelt in 2025, led by the East Coast. The East Coast, which comprises approximately 40% of our NOI is forecast to grow same-store revenue by 2% to 4%. We expect New York and Washington, DC, to be our leading markets in the region, continuing 2024's trends. We are slightly more cautious on Boston due to peak supply deliveries that are expected to occur midyear, which could result in some pricing pressure.

轉到幻燈片 15 和我們的區域收入成長預期，我們預計到 2025 年，以東海岸為首的沿海地區將繼續表現優於陽光地帶。東海岸約占我們淨營業收入的 40%，預計同店收入將成長 2% 至 4%。我們預計紐約和華盛頓特區將成為我們在該地區的主要市場，並延續 2024 年的趨勢。我們對波士頓的態度略為謹慎，因為預計年中將出現供應高峰，這可能會帶來一些價格壓力。

The West Coast which comprises approximately 35% of our NOI is forecast to grow same-store revenue by 1.25% to 3.25%. San Francisco, Seattle and Orange County are expected to produce upper tier growth, while Monterey Peninsula is forecast to be softer, some of which is due to recently enacted rent control.

西海岸約占我們淨營業收入的 35%，預計同店收入將成長 1.25% 至 3.25%。舊金山、西雅圖和橘郡預計將出現上層成長，而蒙特雷半島預計將出現成長，部分原因是最近實施的租金管制。

Last, our Sunbelt markets, which comprise roughly 25% of our NOI, our forecast to have same-store revenue growth of flat to positive 2%. Austin and Nashville will continue to face elevated new supply in 2025, which should limit our pricing power for the third consecutive year. On a relative basis, we expect Tampa and Orlando to be leaders among our -- some markets.

最後，我們的陽光地帶市場約占我們淨營業收入的 25%，我們預測同店營收成長率將持平至正 2%。2025 年，奧斯汀和納許維爾將繼續面臨新增供應量的增加，這將連續第三年限制我們的定價能力。相對而言，我們預計坦帕和奧蘭多將成為我們某些市場的領導者。

Moving on. As shown on slide 16, we expect 2025 same-store expense growth of 3.5% at the midpoint. This is primarily driven by growth in real estate taxes, personnel and administrative and marketing costs. While only 5% of total expenses, insurance expense growth of negative 4.5% to negative 6.5% reflects the benefit of the pricing we negotiated on our policy renewal in December and our deployment of targeted CapEx.

繼續。如投影片 16 所示，我們預期 2025 年同店費用成長率中位數為 3.5%。這主要是由於房地產稅、人員、行政和行銷成本的成長所致。雖然保險費用僅佔總費用的 5%，但增長了 -4.5% 到 -6.5%，這反映了我們在 12 月續保時協商的定價以及我們有針對性的資本支出部署的好處。

To conclude, as summarized on slide 17, we delivered strong fourth quarter and full year 2024 results. Same-store revenue, expense and NOI growth were all better than the midpoint of our guidance and same-store NOI growth exceeded the high end of our range. The near-term operating environment presents some challenges, but we have successfully navigated through historically high levels of new supply and fundamentals suggest an attractive growth outlook with 2025 same-store NOI growth expected to accelerate compared to our 2024 results.

總而言之，正如第 17 頁所總結的那樣，我們取得了強勁的第四季和 2024 年全年業績。同店收入、支出和淨營運收入成長均優於我們預期的中位數，且同店淨營運收入成長超過了我們預期範圍的高端。近期的營運環境帶來了一些挑戰，但我們已成功應對了歷史性的高水準新供應，基本面顯示成長前景誘人，預計 2025 年同店淨營業利潤成長將比 2024 年的業績加速。

We continue to innovate with the intention of increasing the growth, improving resident retention and further extending our operating margin over time. I thank our teams for their collaboration, which drives innovation and superior results. We are positioned to take advantage of external growth opportunities when appropriate.

我們不斷創新，旨在促進成長、提高居民保留率並進一步提高我們的營業利潤率。我感謝我們團隊的合作，推動了創新和卓越的成果。我們準備在適當的時候利用外部成長機會。

We will continue to utilize various sources of capital, including existing joint ventures and operating partnership unit deals to accretively grow the company while heating cost of capital signals. And our unique approach to portfolio strategy, operating excellence and continued innovation has created a company that is a full cycle investment and one that we believe maximizes value creation for our stakeholders, regardless of the economic environment.

我們將繼續利用各種資本來源，包括現有的合資企業和營運合作夥伴單位交易，以在提高資本成本訊號的同時實現公司的成長。我們獨特的投資組合策略、卓越營運和持續創新方法，打造了一家全週期投資的公司。

Finally, I give special thanks to our teams in Southern California for their efforts during the recent wildfires that resulted in no damage to our properties and our teams across the country for their actions during the most recent polar vortex that brought brutally cold weather and even snow to southern states from Texas to Florida. I'm proud of the preparations you took to ensure the safety of our residents and fellow associates. And the difference you have made to the cities, communities and families affected by these events.

最後，我要特別感謝我們位於南加州的團隊在最近的山林火災中所做的努力，這次火災沒有給我們的財產造成損害，也特別感謝我們在全國各地的團隊在最近的極地渦旋中採取的行動，這次極地渦旋給從德克薩斯州到佛羅裡達州的南部各州帶來了嚴寒天氣，甚至下雪。我為您為確保我們的居民和同事的安全所做的準備感到自豪。以及您為受這些事件影響的城市、社區和家庭所做的貢獻。

With that, I will open it up for Q&A. Operator?

接下來我將開始問答環節。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Nick Yulico, Scotiabank.

（操作員指示） 加拿大豐業銀行 Nick Yulico。

First question is just in terms of the guidance, helpful all the details on markets and on same-store revenue. Can you just give us a feel, though, in terms of blended rate growth how that could trend through the year for the different markets, particularly as you think about sort of Sunbelt versus the rest of the portfolio? Is there more of a kind of convergence on blended rent growth on the regions as you get into the back half of the year?

第一個問題僅與指導有關，有關市場和同店收入的所有細節都很有幫助。不過，您能否從混合利率成長的角度為我們介紹一下，不同市場全年的趨勢如何，特別是當您考慮陽光地帶與投資組合的其他部分時？進入下半年，各地區的混合租金成長是否會出現更多的趨同？

Nick, it's Mike. I'll take that. I think, first and foremost, maybe starting high level with a total company just as it relates to that 2.5%. I think, first of all, it starts with our strategy. Obviously, you've heard us talk about this over the last six to nine months really driving our occupancy up during a period of time where expirations are low.

尼克，我是麥克。我接受。我認為，首先，也許應該從整個公司的高層開始，因為這與 2.5% 有關。我認為，首先，從我們的策略開始。顯然，您已經聽到我們在過去六到九個月中談論過這個問題，這在到期率較低的時期確實提高了我們的入住率。

And given the fact that we've had historically low turnover, that allowed us to drive occupancy to about 96.8% during the quarter. Happy to report, today, it's closer to 97% to 97.2%, and so that's giving us a lot of tailwinds to be able to drive our rents as we move forward. But as you think about that 2.5%, it's important to think about the cadence of it. And so in the first half of the year, our expectations as we continue to deal with elevated supply is around 1.4% to 1.8% growth. And then when we get into the back half of the year, closer to about 2.8% to 3.2%.

鑑於我們的歷史營業額較低，這使得我們在本季度將入住率提高到約 96.8％。很高興地報告，今天，這一比例已接近 97% 至 97.2%，這為我們今後提高租金提供了很大的助力。但當你考慮那 2.5% 時，考慮它的節奏很重要。因此，在上半年，隨著我們繼續應對供應增加，我們預計成長率約為 1.4％ 至 1.8％。當我們進入下半年時，成長率將接近 2.8% 至 3.2%。

So again, first half of the year, call it, 1.6% at the midpoint, that is right where we landed for 2024 in the first half. In the second half of the year, that 3%. It's still about 70 to 90 basis points lower than the pre-COVID average. And so we do have seasonality built into that number. We expect 3Q would be higher than 4Q, but again, it is lower than most pre-COVID norms.

因此，今年上半年的中間值為 1.6%，這正是 2024 年上半年的水準。下半年是3%。它仍然比新冠疫情之前的平均值低約 70 到 90 個基點。因此我們確實將季節性因素考慮進了該數字。我們預計第三季的銷售額將高於第四季度，但同樣低於疫情前的大部分標準。

Specific to the regions, I think it's probably good to start on page 15, where we were able to go through just some of the expectations around the different regions. For us, what we expect is obviously a higher earn-in for places like the Coast, East Coast being higher than the West Coast. Right now, we think earn-in is 1.3 for the East. about 80 bps for the West Coast and then we were negative 1 for the Sunbelt.

具體到各個地區，我認為最好從第 15 頁開始，在那裡我們可以了解不同地區的一些期望。對我們來說，我們預期的顯然是沿海地區、東海岸的收益會高於西海岸。目前，我們認為東部的獲利率為 1.3。西海岸約為 80 個基點，而陽光地帶為-1。

Specific to the blends though, Coast is looking very similar to what we achieved in 2024. Our expectations are blends will be roughly around 2.5% to 3% on the East. It's going to be about a 1 to 1.2 contribution to our total revenue in that region. On the West Coast, probably closer to plus or minus 2.5% blends this year. And again, that contribution is pretty close to 1% as it relates to total revenue. And then as you get into the Sunbelt, blends this, we're thinking probably closer to 60 to 90 basis points this year and a relatively small contribution, only around 30 or 40 bps on the difference is where other income comes in.

但具體到混合物，Coast 看起來與我們在 2024 年取得的成就非常相似。我們預計東部地區的混合比例將約為 2.5% 至 3%。這將對我們在該地區的總收入貢獻約 1 到 1.2%。在西海岸，今年的混合酒比例可能更接近正負 2.5%。而且，該貢獻佔總收入的比例非常接近 1%。然後當你進入陽光地帶，將其融合時，我們認為今年的貢獻可能接近 60 到 90 個基點，而相對較小的貢獻，只有大約 30 或 40 個基點的差額是其他收入的來源。

And so for us, we had about 8% growth in 2024. Expectations are another year where we're expecting around 7%. And I've seen a lot more growth in places like the Sunbelt. So similar to 2024, expectations are, we could see anywhere from 10% to 12% growth in the Sunbelt versus closer to, call it, 5% growth on the coast.

因此對我們來說，到 2024 年我們的成長率將達到約 8%。我們預計明年的成長速度將達到 7% 左右。我也看到陽光地帶等地出現了更大的成長。因此與 2024 年類似，預計陽光地帶的成長率將達到 10% 到 12%，而沿海地區的成長率則接近 5%。

Very, very helpful. Second is just on investments. And Tom, I think you said the balance sheet set up pretty well for you to get to -- decide to do more investments. I guess the guidance is for you to be a net seller this year. So how should we think about sort of where the focus is going to be on investments?

非常非常有幫助。第二是關於投資。湯姆，我認為你說過資產負債表已經為你做好了準備，可以幫助你決定進行更多投資。我猜今年的指導目標是讓你成為淨賣家。那我們該如何思考投資的重點呢？

And is there actually some sort of capital built into the plan that if you were to do acquisitions, you don't necessarily need to raise new capital and there could be some benefit if acquisitions actually pick up?

並且，該計劃中是否實際上包含了某種資本，如果您要進行收購，您不一定需要籌集新資本，而且如果收購實際上有所回升，可能會有一些好處？

Nick, this is Joe. Maybe two things on that one. I'd say number one in that seller component, that's really a byproduct of a couple of sales that we have teed up last year that happened to slip into early January. So those are really related to neutral funding for last year. So I wouldn't read too much into us looking like a net seller. That's more just a '24 issue and timing issue.

尼克，這是喬。關於這一點，也許有兩件事。我想說，賣方成分中的第一點，實際上是我們去年安排的幾筆銷售的副產品，這些銷售恰好拖延到 1 月初。所以這些確實與去年的中性資金有關。因此，我不會過度解讀我們看起來像一個淨賣家。這不僅僅是一個 24 問題和時間問題。

As it relates to capital and deployment, I think you're going to see us remain fairly opportunistic on that front. We've continued to advance discussions with our joint venture partner, LaSalle and their capital stores, which after being on the sidelines for kind of 12 months as they went through a global mandate review, happy to report, we had meetings with them earlier this week, and we are back in action and looking to deploy capital with that partner.

至於資本和部署，我認為你會看到我們在這方面仍然相當投機。我們繼續推進與合資夥伴 LaSalle 及其資本商店的討論，在他們進行全球授權審查的 12 個月後，我們很高興地報告，我們本週早些時候與他們進行了會談，我們已重新開始行動並尋求與該合作夥伴一起部署資本。

On the DPE front, as we've said in the prepared remarks and previously disclosed, we think we've really kind of cleared the deck on that front from a risk perspective. And so now we're back into normal course business and we had a couple of really good payoffs there in the fourth quarter as well as some effective payoffs this year. So we're focused on redeploying capital on that front. When you get into the development side, we don't have much of a pipeline today. But as we continue to get more optimistic on where rent growth goes in '26 and '27, we do expect to see maybe two to three starts coming out of the development side this year, included one possible here in the next quarter -- and then you got the redevelopment portfolio.

在 DPE 方面，正如我們在準備好的評論中所說的以及之前披露的那樣，我們認為從風險角度來看，我們確實已經為該方面做好了準備。現在我們已恢復正常業務，並在第四季度獲得了一些非常好的回報，並且今年也獲得了一些有效的回報。因此，我們專注於重新部署該方面的資本。當你進入開發方面時，我們今天沒有太多的管道。但是，隨著我們對 26 年和 27 年租金增長的走向繼續變得更加樂觀，我們確實預計今年可能會有兩到三個開發項目開工，其中有一個可能在下個季度開工，然後你就得到了重建組合。

The redevelopment team continues to hum and continues to collaborate really well with the operations team. And so continue to invest on the redevelopment side.

重建團隊繼續活躍並繼續與營運團隊進行良好的合作。因此繼續在重建方面進行投資。

And then I think lastly, while we haven't had anything announced recently, the OP unit transactions that you've seen us do in the past, we do have a number of discussions ongoing on that front. And so we'll continue to see what plays out on those, but we are definitely looking to be active and opportunistic here with capital allocation.

最後，我想，雖然我們最近沒有宣布任何消息，但您看到我們過去進行的 OP 單位交易，我們確實在這方面進行了一些討論。因此，我們將繼續觀察這些因素的影響，但我們肯定會積極主動地抓住機會進行資本配置。

Eric Wolfe, Citi.

花旗銀行的艾瑞克‧沃爾夫 (Eric Wolfe)。

You mentioned that were concessions trend in your markets will be a key factor in achieving your outlook. So could you just talk about where concessions are today and sort of where you think they might go as we progress through the year?

您提到，您所在市場的讓步趨勢將是實現您願景的關鍵因素。那麼，您能否談談目前的優惠情況以及您認為隨著時間的推移，優惠情況可能會如何？

Eric, I'd tell you, first, it goes back to kind of finishing up on a strong note. So coming off a very strong 4Q. This positioned us obviously with high occupancy and our turnover continues to trend down. And so right now, what we're seeing in January, further momentum, again, occupancy above 97% today. Turnover in January was down another 500 bps on a year-over-year basis.

艾瑞克，我要告訴你，首先，它又回到了以一種強勁的勢頭收尾的狀態。因此第四季的表現非常強勁。這顯然使我們的入住率很高，而我們的營業額則持續呈下降趨勢。所以現在，我們看到 1 月的勢頭進一步增強，入住率再次超過 97％。1 月營業額較去年又下降了 500 個基點。

And our rents and other income are tracking with our expectations for the first half of the year. And so we are getting more active as we try to drive our market rents up, and we're driving our concessions down. We're right around a week in January, and we're starting to push that down to sub-one week as we move further into the first quarter. Concessions are coming down a little bit right now. And again, I think that's part of our strategy to drive occupancy now put our focus on driving our rents out.

我們的租金和其他收入與我們對上半年的預期一致。因此，我們變得更加積極，試圖提高市場租金，並降低優惠。一月份大概是一周左右，隨著第一季的進一步推進，我們開始將這一時間縮短到一周以下。目前讓步正在逐漸減少。再次強調，我認為這是我們提高入住率策略的一部分，現在我們的重點是提高租金。

That's helpful. And then I guess as far as the new CIO role, can you maybe just talk about the rationale for the change there from CFO? And then Joe, if there's anything that you're expecting to do differently in this role is the company's capital allocation strategy is going to change at all? Or if it's more about processes, just anything that's going to be different now versus before?

這很有幫助。然後我想就新的 CIO 角色而言，您能否談談從 CFO 轉變為 CIO 的理由？那麼喬，如果您希望在這個職位上做些不同的事情，那麼公司的資本配置策略是否會改變？或者如果更多的是關於流程，那麼現在與以前相比有什麼不同嗎？

Eric, I think I'm always striving and the room is striving to get better. And so I'd start off with first as my prepared remarks, congratulations to Mike and Joe for promotions and assuming additional responsibility. As part of my role and the Board as well as the executive team is to push ourselves to get better and deeper talented bench. And I think this opens up opportunities under both of them to advance people's careers and their skills and ability to generate shareholder value.

艾瑞克，我想我一直在努力，房間也在努力變得更好。因此，我首先以準備好的發言開始，祝賀麥克和喬晉升並承擔更多職責。我的職責以及董事會和執行團隊的一部分就是推動我們自己獲得更好、更深厚的人才團隊。我認為這為他們雙方都帶來了機遇，提升了人們的職業生涯和技能，並提高了他們創造股東價值的能力。

And with respect to the CFO, Joe has been an exceptional CFO for the company for eight years. I don't want to say you get stale in the job, but you become a key part of our success. But I'm looking to say, gosh, how can we get better as a team? And it opens up a slot. And I think with Harry retiring and Joe stepping in the CIO, working with Andrew and the team there. He brings a fresh perspective.

就財務長而言，喬在公司任職八年，表現出色。我不想說你在工作中變得乏味，但你已成為我們成功的關鍵部分。但我想說，天哪，我們怎麼能成為一個更好的團隊？並且它會打開一個插槽。我認為 Harry 退休後 Joe 將擔任 CIO，與 Andrew 和那裡的團隊一起工作。他帶來了新的視角。

I would expect us to continue to have a lot of success in the investment area and we'll commence a search for a CFO. I think it's a very attractive position and a very stable capable quality and team member for our future. So that's how I've been thinking about it, and the group has been always along in this conversation about how do we get better as a group, how do we get better as a company. And I think it prepares us that way. And again, growing talent is a critical element of our long-term success.

我希望我們能夠在投資領域繼續取得巨大成功，我們將開始尋找財務長。我認為這是一個非常有吸引力的職位，對我們的未來來說是一個非常穩定、有能力的品質和團隊成員。這就是我一直以來的想法，團隊也一直在討論如何讓整個團隊變得更好，如何讓整個公司變得更好。我認為它能讓我們做好這樣的準備。再次強調，培養人才是我們長期成功的關鍵因素。

Jamie Feldman, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的傑米·費爾德曼。

Mike, I was hoping you could walk through the line of sight on other income a little bit same-store revenue growth contribution year-over-year from that bucket in the guidance. We're just trying to figure out if this number goes down as Wi-Fi rollouts move through the system? Or if this could say even or reaccelerate in the out years?

麥克，我希望您能從其他收入的角度稍微介紹一下指導意見中同店收入同比增長的貢獻。我們只是想弄清楚，隨著 Wi-Fi 在系統中的推廣，這個數字是否會下降？或者這是否可以說在未來幾年內甚至會重新加速？

Sure. Appreciate the question, Jamie. First and foremost, just as it relates to other income, we have a culture and history of driving incremental -- in fact, we've been at this for more 10 years where we're not only increasing our -- do every year, but also driving those margins as well. So as we look at it, we've got about $60 million in max potential NOI to choose from right now through a whole list of different initiatives. We're looking at them.

當然。非常感謝您的提問，傑米。首先，就像其他收入一樣，我們擁有推動增量的文化和歷史——事實上，我們已經這樣做了 10 多年，我們不僅每年都在增加收入，而且還在推動利潤率的提高。因此，從我們的角度來看，目前我們可以透過一系列不同的措施從最大潛在淨營運收入 (NOI) 中進行選擇，最高可達 6,000 萬美元。我們正在看著他們。

We're prioritizing them. We're trying to assess which ones we pull the lever on. And I'm happy to report, again, last year, we had 8% growth in other income it's going to be another strong year this year. I think for us, when I look at it, we've got about 11.5% of our revenue that comes from other income. It's approximately $180 million on our $1.5 billion and same-store revenue.

我們正在優先考慮他們。我們正在嘗試評估對哪些方面可以採取槓桿作用。我很高興地再次報告，去年我們的其他收入成長了 8％，今年也將是另一個強勁的一年。我認為對我們來說，當我們查看時，大約有 11.5% 的收入來自其他收入。我們的同店營收為 15 億美元，約佔 1.8 億美元。

And it looks pretty promising. I look at the Wi-Fi rollout, the package lockers, the -- amenity areas, things like that, that are really driving a lot of this line item. We look at it at about 60% of that 7% growth in 2025 is already baked. And when I say that, we've done a lot of the heavy lifting with the Wi-Fi rollout. We still have about 10,000 to 12,000 units we're installing throughout this year.

而且它看起來很有前景。我查看了 Wi-Fi 的推出、包裹儲物櫃、便利設施區等，這些對該項目產生了很大推動作用。我們認為，2025 年 7% 的成長目標中約 60% 已經實現。當我這麼說的時候，我們已經在 Wi-Fi 的推廣上做了很多繁重的工作。我們今年仍有大約 10,000 到 12,000 個單元需要安裝。

But a lot of that income is coming from all the work that we've done over the last 12 to 18 months. So we feel pretty good about our other income line item at this time.

但大部分收入來自於我們過去 12 到 18 個月所做的所有工作。因此，我們目前對其他收入項目感到非常滿意。

Jamie, maybe just to add on to that, too, because we do focus a lot on other income as a company and obviously, within the investor space. But you've heard us talk somewhat ad nauseam on customer experience in the past. And you're seeing the results of that, of course, with turnover -- incoming down both absolute and relative. But that initiative is across all line items. So as we continue to do better and better on customer experience, keep driving down that turnover.

傑米，也許只是想補充一下，因為作為一家公司，我們確實非常關注其他收入，顯然，也在投資者領域。但您過去可能已經聽過我們沒完沒了地談論客戶體驗了。當然，您會看到其結果，即營業額——絕對和相對收入都在下降。但這項舉措涉及所有項目。因此，隨著我們在客戶體驗方面做得越來越好，營業額也會不斷下降。

It's going to enhance pricing power, enhance other income, enhance occupancy, drive down turnover costs, both capitalized and expensed. And so I do think you'll continue to see a benefit there as we really lead into that initiative, which may not show up in other income necessarily, but will show up throughout the enterprise. So just be cognizant of that.

它將增強定價能力，增加其他收入，提高入住率，降低資本化和費用化的營業額成本。因此，我確實認為，當我們真正實施這項計劃時，你會繼續看到它的好處，這不一定體現在其他收入中，但會體現在整個企業中。所以請注意這一點。

Okay. That's very helpful. But do you think as we look ahead in the next few years, like at some point, does it become a headwind to the growth rate? There's enough still that you can keep it going for a while in terms of your growth rate?

好的。這非常有幫助。但您是否認為，展望未來幾年，在某個時候，它會成為成長率的阻力？就你們的成長率來看，還足以維持一段時間嗎？

This is Tommy. I think like a lot of things in life. It's a flywheel. And customer experience projects going to spawn off many more new ideas about other income aspects and our relationship with our customer because they're going to be with us for a longer period of time. So I think it's premature to kind of highlight some of those.

這是湯米。我認為就像生活中的很多事情一樣。它是一個飛輪。客戶體驗專案將會催生更多關於其他收入方面以及我們與客戶關係的新想法，因為他們將與我們在一起更長時間。因此我認為現在強調其中一些還為時過早。

Why? Because they're in early stages of experimenting and finding out what customers respond to and don't. But it is the cornerstone of how we can build out a deeper pipeline of those opportunities in the future to backfill it. Clearly, I'm with you, if you don't keep innovating, you eventually run up against your own success. I think the case here is continue to innovate, use data, use that aspect of it to convert to cash flow, if you will.

為什麼？因為他們還處於試驗的早期階段，正在研究客戶對什麼有反應，對什麼無反應。但它是我們在未來如何建立更深層的機會管道來填補它的基石。顯然，我同意你的觀點，如果你不不斷創新，你最終就會與自己的成功背道而馳。我認為這裡的情況是繼續創新，使用數據，利用它的這個方面將其轉換為現金流，如果你願意的話。

And we'll find out where that margin keeps growing, if you will. But that's essence the long view of that customer experience project.

如果你願意的話，我們會找出這個利潤率在哪裡繼續成長。但這本質上是客戶體驗專案的長遠眼光。

Okay. And then as we -- I'm looking at slide 9 from the presentation, where you talk about '25 supply as a percent of existing stock. I know you've got the red, green and yellow bucket we're coming off of historic levels of supply and thinking about those red bucket. But like what's the number here where you actually worry about supply weighing on fundamentals going forward? Like are some of these yellow markets going to move into the red bucket or 50 to 150 basis points in '25 is just not something to worry about, and we really think you're kind of cleaning things up here in every market as we work through '25.

好的。然後，我正在看簡報的第 9 張投影片，其中您討論了 25% 供應量佔現有庫存的百分比。我知道您有紅色、綠色和黃色桶，我們的供應量已達到歷史水平，我們正在考慮那些紅色桶。但是，這裡的數字是多少，您真正擔心的供應會對未來的基本面造成壓力嗎？例如，這些黃色市場中的一些是否會進入紅色區域，或者 25 年是否會下降 50 到 150 個基點，這些都無需擔心，我們真的認為，隨著 25 年的到來，每個市場都會得到清理。

Jamie, we're definitely leaning than -- if you will, as it was throughout '25. When you look from the green bucket of the red bucket, you do have pretty meaningful deltas and blended lease rate growth plus or minus upwards of 500 basis points, depending on which market you're coming in to. The yellows are in the middle. I think as you migrate throughout the year, and Mike started to kind of allude to this earlier, which we showed back where we give the regional revenue performance. You're going to see some of these red markets start to compress upwards relative to the East and West Coast markets.

傑米，如果你願意的話，我們肯定傾向於 — — 就像整個 25 年一樣。當您從綠色桶到紅色桶看時，您確實有相當有意義的增量和混合租賃利率增長率，上下浮動 500 個基點，具體取決於您進入的市場。黃色位於中間。我認為隨著你全年的遷移，Mike 早些時候就開始暗示這一點，我們在之前展示的區域收入表現中也展示了這一點。你會看到，相對於東岸和西岸市場，一些紅色市場開始向上壓縮。

And so as Sunbelt supply comes down pretty meaningfully, while it's still at a high absolute level, it is going to come down pretty meaningfully from where we're at in '24, which we do think enhances pricing power throughout this year. Then as you go into '26, the part of the reason that the East and West Coast don't see that same decline in supply is really just longer lead times for developments there, more blended high-rise product being delivered, which has a little bit longer development cycle. If you get into '26, you're going to see supply overall come off another 30%-plus, and that's going to be across the border in all three of those regions. So we'll gradually see fewer and fewer markets sitting in the red and yellow and more and more (inaudible) in '26.

因此，隨著陽光地帶的供應量大幅下降，儘管它仍然處於較高的絕對水平，但它將比 24 年的水平大幅下降，我們確實認為這將增強今年全年的定價能力。然後，當你進入26年時，東海岸和西海岸沒有出現同樣供應量下降的原因之一實際上是那裡的開發週期更長，交付的混合高層產品更多，開發週期更長一些。如果進入26年，你會看到總體供應量將再下降30%以上，而且這將涉及邊境所有三個地區。因此，我們將逐漸看到，在26年，處於紅色和黃色狀態的市場將越來越少，而處於紅色和黃色狀態的市場將越來越多。

Steve Sakwa, Evercore ISI.

史蒂夫·薩誇（Steve Sakwa），Evercore ISI。

Yes. Joe, I know you were out at NMHC, and I'm just curious what the discussion was like broadly around development. Everybody is painting this picture of '25 still a little bit of a transition year, high supply, but '26, '27 and beyond looks great. So I'm just curious kind of the discussions around new development and even sounds like you guys might want to start some new developments. So what's the -- I guess, the risk that everybody is seeing the same picture and goes to put shovels in the ground sooner than later?

是的。喬，我知道你去了 NMHC，我只是好奇圍繞發展問題的討論大致是怎麼樣的。每個人都認為 25 年仍是過渡年，供應量很大，但 2026 年、2027 年及以後的前景看好。所以我只是對新發展的討論感到好奇，甚至聽起來你們可能想開始一些新的發展。那麼，我猜，如果每個人看到同樣的景象，並且遲早都會開始行動，那麼風險是什麼呢？

Yes. Great question. I do think everybody is generally speaking, seeing that same view -- of the view of the future. as you get into that '26, '27 and you look at some of the slides that we put on here slide -- and prior to that in terms of supply deliveries. You're definitely going to see less supply with the backdrop of very strong relative affordability and hopefully still get demand.

是的。好問題。我確實認為，總體而言，每個人都有同樣的看法——對未來的看法。當你進入 26、27 年時，你會看到我們在這裡放的一些幻燈片 - 以及在此之前的供應交付情況。在相對負擔能力非常強的背景下，你肯定會看到供應減少，但希望仍然有需求。

And so there is an expectation of outsized growth in those years, which obviously gets developers excited. I think the ability to translate excitement and a thesis on the future into actual shovels in the ground is a little bit more challenging. We have seen construction financing start to come back a little bit from the banks, so they are improving in terms of the availability of that capital. The spreads are still relatively high and kind of plus or minus 300 basis point range. The bigger challenge still seems to be the LP equity. And so can you go out there and raise capital to deploy into development to get those starts done today.

因此人們預期這些年將出現大幅成長，這顯然讓開發商感到興奮。我認為將興奮之情和對未來的論點轉化為實際行動的能力更具挑戰性。我們看到銀行的建築融資開始回升，資本的可用性正在改善。利差仍然相對較高，大約在正負 300 個基點的範圍內。更大的挑戰似乎依然是LP股權。那麼，您是否可以出去籌集資金，投入開發，以實現今天的開端呢？

So if you have the thesis, yes, I think a lot of us believe in it. Do you have the capital not so much. So not overly concerned about your point on do we see a big surge in supply. And to the extent that we do, I think it's more of a '28 issue. We still have a pretty good runway here for a couple of years.

所以如果你有這個論點，是的，我想我們很多人都相信它。你有資本沒那麼多。因此，我們並不太擔心您所說的供應量是否會大幅成長。從我們所做的程度來看，我認為這更像是一個 28 年的問題。未來幾年我們在這裡仍然擁有相當好的跑道。

In terms of how it relates to ours, I mentioned kind of two or three starts potentially teed up here for this year. We look at the yields that we're going to have on those on a current underwritten basis. We're looking for high 5% to 6% on that capital, so full with those projects and moving forward with those.

就其與我們的關係而言，我提到了今年可能有兩到三次這樣的開局。我們會根據目前的承保基礎來計算收益率。我們希望獲得 5% 至 6% 的高資本回報率，以便充分開展這些項目並不斷推進它們。

Steve, Tom if I can. You've been through a lot of these cycles. And you know where we're at today, all the developers are trying to keep their shops busy and penciling a lot of deals. The truth is capital is looking over there and saying, why am I building if I can buy below replacement cost. So the acquisition market, sale market is probably going to heat up a little bit more in '25, '26 before the development starts to rewind itself up.

史蒂夫，湯姆，如果可以的話。你已經經歷過很多這樣的循環。你知道我們今天所處的情況，所有的開發商都在努力讓他們的商店保持繁忙並達成大量的交易。事實是，資本正在看著並說，如果我能以低於重置成本的價格買到房子，為什麼還要建造呢？因此，在發展開始回落之前，收購市場和銷售市場在 25 年和 26 年可能會進一步升溫。

It will -- there hasn't been any development where there's rent growth. So that we step back and look at it and say, it's a window where be prudent, but we think there's -- and it's a competitive window for acquisitions right now. Still get out there and see what we can find.

會的——租金沒有漲。因此，我們退一步來看，這是一個需要謹慎的窗口，但我們認為，現在是一個競爭性的收購窗口。繼續前行，看看我們能找到什麼。

Great. Maybe just quickly on Slide 16, maybe for Mike. Just as you look at the expectations for expense growth in '25 and there's some big deltas from where '24 came in. I'm just looking at like personnel loss was an elevated number in '24, coming down much more in '25, but real estate taxes kind of going the other way around. Just where do you see the risks on more slide?

偉大的。也許只是在第 16 張投影片上快速展示一下，也許對 Mike 來說。正如您所看到的，25 年的費用成長預期與 24 年相比存在很大的差異。我只是看到，人員流失在 24 年是一個較高的數字，在 25 年下降得更多，但房地產稅卻正好相反。您認為下滑的風險有哪些？

And how have you sort of thought about that in the budget?

您在預算中是如何考慮這個問題的？

Got it, Steve. I'd say, first of all, thinking about '24 and '25. And specific to personnel. Just a reminder, we had the cars refund that we had to deal with last year. And so our personnel cost expense was up about 11%.

明白了，史蒂夫。我想說，首先，先思考 24 年和 25 年。並且具體到人員。提醒一下，我們去年處理了汽車退款問題。因此我們的人員成本支出上漲了約 11%。

And that's mainly because of anniversarying off of that. Now we're back to kind of a normal run rate, if you will. And so when we look at our expenses, I mean, we would have been around, call it, 3.5% this year if we didn't deal with that anniversary. Things feel pretty good. The team has been doing a lot around all the different initiatives.

這主要是為了紀念週年。現在我們已經恢復到正常的運行率了，如果你願意的話。因此，當我們查看我們的開支時，我的意思是，如果我們沒有處理那個週年紀念日，我們今年的開支將會在 3.5% 左右。一切感覺都很好。團隊圍繞著各種不同的舉措做了很多工作。

We talk a lot about other income, but they've made a lot of progress in things like efficiencies and how we're utilizing technology, try to drive down some of those costs. And we're also doing things with our vendors trying to consolidate that. That's playing out in some of these numbers that you see here today. And so for us, it feels good going into '25, we ended on a good note in '24, and we're off and running '25.

我們談論了很多關於其他收入的問題，但他們在效率和如何利用技術等方面取得了很大進展，並試圖降低一些成本。我們也正在與供應商合作試圖鞏固這一點。這體現在您今天看到的一些數字中。因此對我們來說，進入25年感覺很好，我們在24年取得了良好的成績，並且我們已經開始為25年努力。

And maybe just taxes real quick. Anything there to speak about?

或許只是快速徵稅。有什麼好談的嗎？

Steve, on the real estate tax side, we did have some wins in terms of appeals activity that took place in '24. So it's taking a little bit higher up in the mid-3s. Obviously, we're going to be going after a lot of those same types of deals is really probates out in California. So we look to appeal down that initial number of 3.5%. When you look regionally by markets, to be honest, most of them are plus or minus in that range.

史蒂夫，在房地產稅方面，我們在 24 年的上訴活動方面確實取得了一些勝利。因此，它在 3 秒鐘中的位置會稍微高一些。顯然，我們將在加州進行大量此類遺產認證交易。因此我們希望將最初的 3.5% 這個數字降低。當你從區域市場來看時，老實說，大多數市場都在這個範圍內正​​負相差無幾。

I think the only outlier is really -- coming with up in Seattle, we were seeing values come down. And so actually, we're forecasting negative -- over year real estate tax growth there in Seattle, largely the other side, we're seeing rates come in higher in Boston, a little more tax growth there. And then out in Nashville. Also we have the four-year reset that take place a little bit more pressure in Nashville. But most of our markets right now, we're thinking within that 2.5% to 4.5% range.

我認為唯一的異常值是——在西雅圖，我們看到價值下降。因此實際上，我們預測西雅圖的房地產稅年增率為負，另一方面，我們看到波士頓的稅率較高，那裡的稅收成長略高。然後到達納什維爾。此外，我們還有四年的重置，這對納許維爾來說壓力更大一些。但目前我們考慮的大多數市場都在 2.5% 到 4.5% 的範圍內。

Jeff Spector, Bank of America.

美國銀行的傑夫·斯佩克特（Jeff Spector）。

Great. Joe, at the top of the call, you -- in your opening remarks, talked about lower supply benefiting I think you said late '25, please confirm if that's correct or not. I guess my question really is on the confidence level here. And how does that tie to, let's say, guidance, right, upper end versus lower end versus midpoint?

偉大的。喬，在電話會議的開頭，你在開場白中談到了供應減少將帶來好處，我想你說的是 25 年末，請確認這是否正確。我想我的問題其實是關於信心程度的。那麼，這與指導方針有什麼關係呢？

Yes, we do expect to see supply continue to trickle down throughout the year in terms of the deliveries. And on Page 8, we have demonstrated for our markets, which you see it does trend down that really plays into Mike's commentary earlier on blends. And so our first half blend assumption being roughly in line with what we saw first half of '24. And then we start to see that blended number lift as we go into the second half, kind of peak out in 3Q and see some seasonality going into 4Q with a declining a little bit. That's driven across the board, but we did talk about seeing Sunbelt start to accelerate a little bit more as we move throughout the year as they do see a more significant decline in those deliveries.

是的，我們確實預計全年供應量將持續下降。在第 8 頁，我們已經針對我們的市場進行了演示，您會看到它確實呈下降趨勢，這與 Mike 之前對混合物的評論相符。因此，我們上半年的混合假設與24年上半年的情況大致一致。然後，我們開始看到，隨著進入下半年，混合數字開始上升，在第三季度達到頂峰，而進入第四季度，受到一些季節性的影響，混合數字略有下降。這是全方面推動的，但我們確實看到，隨著全年的發展，陽光地帶的貨運量開始加速，因為他們的貨運量確實出現了更顯著的下降。

And so I think there's a couple of things that give us a little bit of comfort with that in terms of the higher second half versus first half. We mentioned now the decline in delivery activity, which should help. The other pieces are relative affordability continues to be strong. And obviously, demand environment continues to be strong. So lifting that second half blunt rate growth assumption up into the 3s, which is still well below what we were at pre-COVID.

因此，我認為有幾件事可以讓我們感到欣慰，因為下半年的業績將高於上半年。我們現在提到交付活動的下降，這應該會有所幫助。其餘商品的相對可負擔性依然強勁。顯然，需求環境持續強勁。因此，將下半年的鈍化率成長假設上調至 3%，但仍遠低於 COVID 之前的水平。

And we're kind of getting into more of a pre-COVID norm when we get into the back half of the year and definitely going into '26 that gives us the comfort on the guidance piece.

當我們進入今年下半年時，我們將逐漸恢復到新冠疫情之前的常態，並且肯定會進入 26 年，這讓我們對指引感到安心。

I do think the other thing I just want to mention, too, Jeff, as we kind of think about this, if you go to page 14 within the presentation, I'll give Trent just a second there to get it ready for the webcast. But page 14, when you look at these assumptions between earn and blended lease rate growth, innovation and then occupancy and bad debt. In totality, we get to that 2.25% revenue number, which is basically the exact same as what we put up in 2024. And so we got some questions overnight on the 2.5% blended lease rate growth, which we're talking about right now. But because it is more back-half weighted, you can see in there only a 90 basis point contribution coming off of blended lease rate growth.

傑夫，我確實認為我還想提一下另一件事，當我們考慮這個問題時，如果你轉到演示文稿的第 14 頁，我會給特倫特一秒鐘的時間為網絡直播做好準備。但第 14 頁，當您查看收益和混合租賃率成長、創新以及入住率和壞帳之間的這些假設時。整體而言，我們實現了 2.25% 的收入數字，這與我們 2024 年的收入數字基本上完全相同。因此，我們昨晚收到了一些有關 2.5% 混合租賃利率成長的問題，我們現在正在討論這個問題。但由於其後半部加權較大，您可以看到其中只有 90 個基點的貢獻來自混合租賃利率成長。

Typically, if you are in a normal seasonality curve, you'd have a midyear convention, that 2.5% would translate to 1.25%. So it really tells you that the revenue contribution is pretty typical with what we saw in 2024. So we haven't assumed a lot of acceleration in that rev contribution and the blends that they don't come to fruition in the back half more of a '26 earn-in issue instead of a 2025 guidance or revenue growth issue as most of these somethings look pretty spot on with what we delivered in 2024.

通常，如果您處於正常的季節性曲線中，那麼您會有一個年中慣例，即 2.5% 將轉換為 1.25%。所以它確實告訴你，收入貢獻與我們在 2024 年看到的情況非常典型。因此，我們並沒有假設收入貢獻會有很大的加速，而且這些混合不會在下半年實現，更多的是 26 年的盈利問題，而不是 2025 年的指引或收入增長問題，因為其中大部分內容與我們在 2024 年交付的內容非常吻合。

Okay. And then turning to the tech initiatives. I know you guys are always scouring for new. I'm just curious whether it's AI-driven or just new technology or applications you're seeing. Is there anything exciting on the horizon here that you're looking into?

好的。然後轉向技術舉措。我知道你們總是在尋找新事物。我只是好奇您看到的是人工智慧驅動的還是只是新技術或應用程式。您是否正在關注這方面的一些令人興奮的事情？

Yeah, a couple of things. I'd say maybe some people saw that we recently just transitioned, we're going to be implementing Funnel as our CRM this year. So we're really excited about that. I think it's important to (inaudible) It's something that's going to help our relation definitely to drive it. And ultimately, we think it's going to allow us to be more effective, more efficient with our -- centralized team (inaudible) and then ultimately, this is going to allow us to focus on new ideas and not necessarily get bogged down on a lot of the back office. So that's going to be happening over the next three to six months. We're very excited about that rollout.

是的，有幾件事。我想說也許有些人看到我們最近剛轉型，今年我們將實施 Funnel 作為我們的 CRM。所以我們對此感到非常興奮。我認為（聽不清楚）這很重要，這肯定會推動我們的關係發展。最終，我們認為這將使我們更有效、更有效率地開展工作——集中式團隊（聽不清楚），最終，這將使我們能夠專注於新想法，而不一定會陷入後台工作。這將在未來三到六個月內發生。我們對於此次產品的推出感到非常興奮。

In addition, some of the other play-based initiatives, things that we're using with technology. It goes back to what we talked about last year, just as it relates to who is coming through the front door, who are allowing to be a resident with us and making sure we're identifying bad actors, if you will, before the event of the doors. So things like ID verification, proof of income, just making sure that we're capturing that playing out. And if you recall, we rolled that out mid last year. we saw our occupancy come down a little bit as we started to roll it out.

此外，我們也利用科技開展其他一些基於遊戲的舉措。這可以追溯到我們去年談論的內容，就像它涉及到誰從前門進來、誰允許成為我們的住戶以及確保我們在門事件發生之前識別出不良行為者一樣。因此，身分驗證、收入證明等只是確保我們能夠掌握這些情況。如果你還記得的話，我們在去年年中就推出了這項服務。當我們開始推行這項措施時，我們發現入住率有所下降。

We feel like we've got our hands around it, and that's really starting to pay dividends today. And just to kind of size them given a few stats -- some of our more riskier residents, if you will, that comes through the door. Our average deposits are up almost 20% at this point. Our cosigners are up 1% or 2%. And our credit scores are actually up about 20 points closer to 730 versus 710.

我們感覺我們已經掌握了它，並且今天確實開始帶來回報。為了大致了解他們的規模，我們給了一些統計數據 — — 如果你願意的話，他們是一些從門進來的、風險更高的居民。目前，我們的平均存款已增加近 20%。我們的共同簽名人增加了 1% 或 2%。我們的信用評分實際上從 710 上升了約 20 分，接近 730。

So we think that this is going to continue to try to drive our revenue and make sure that we have good revenues as we move forward.

因此，我們認為這將繼續推動我們的收入，並確保我們在未來獲得良好的收入。

Jeff, this is Tom again. If I could add just a little bit more. I think the key here is that we own our data. So the amount of data Mike could tell me how much we're accumulating every day on every customer interaction from prospect all the way to move out builds an enormous warehouse, if you will, facts to mine trends to look for responses that were missed and so it's not just winding the business model better. It's looking more around the corner, owning that data, what are better ways we can run the business to anticipate the customers position, a market position and then ultimately, how we're pricing our product to those individual customers.

傑夫，我又是湯姆。如果我可以再補充一點的話。我認為這裡的關鍵是我們擁有自己的數據。因此，麥克可以告訴我，我們每天從潛在客戶到客戶離開的過程中積累了多少數據，構建了一個巨大的倉庫，如果你願意的話，可以通過事實來挖掘趨勢，尋找被錯過的回應，所以它不僅僅是讓商業模式變得更好。它更著眼於未來，擁有這些數據，我們可以採取哪些更好的方式來經營業務，以預測客戶的地位、市場地位，以及最終如何為這些個人客戶定價我們的產品。

So I think it's just the very early stages I think the focus that Mike and the entire team has on it. It's always amazing every money we sit and go through where we stand and how much facts we know about where we are and where we're going, help us run the business better, faster, more efficiently.

所以我認為這只是非常早期的階段，我認為 Mike 和整個團隊都專注於此。我們坐下來，回顧每一筆開支，了解我們所處的位置，以及我們對自己目前所處位置和未來發展方向的了解程度，這總是令人驚奇的，這幫助我們更好、更快、更有效地經營業務。

Austin Wurschmidt, Keybanc Capital Markets.

Keybanc 資本市場部的 Austin Wurschmidt。

Great. Mike, I appreciate all the detail you gave across regions. But the question on the same-store revenue guidance, which assume some acceleration in the Sunbelt markets for a lot of the reasons you cited first half versus back half, but you do have deceleration assumed for the coastal markets, despite having a higher earnings. So I guess what's driving that assumed deceleration in the coastal regions this year? And could you actually see some upside given some of the positive dynamics being discussed on the West Coast in particular.

偉大的。麥克，我很感謝你提供的跨地區詳細資訊。但關於同店收入指引的問題，由於您提到的上半年相對於下半年的諸多原因，該指引假設陽光地帶市場的增長會有所加速，但儘管沿海市場的收益較高，但您卻假設其增長會減速。那我猜今年沿海地區經濟減速的原因是什麼呢？考慮到西海岸正在討論的一些積極動態，您是否實際上看到了一些好處？

Yes, it's a really good question, Austin. I think it's important to point out, when you look at the coast, specific to the West Coast, our blends and our earn-ins are very close to what we experienced last year. And so not really seeing a whole lot of deceleration from that standpoint. The difference is going to come in other income in a place like the West Coast and the main reason is a place like Monterey Peninsula for us. We are now dealing with rent control on that front as well as we're not able to charge for our reimbursements if we don't have sub meters at those assets.

是的，這是一個非常好的問題，奧斯汀。我認為有必要指出的是，當你看海岸，特別是西海岸時，我們的混合和收益與去年的非常接近。因此從這個角度來看，並沒有看到太大的減速。差額將來自西海岸等地的其他收入，而對我們來說主要的原因就是蒙特雷半島這樣的地方。我們現在正在處理這方面的租金管制問題，因為如果這些資產沒有安裝分錶，我們就無法收取報銷費用。

So that's actually about a $2 million to $3 million drag for us in '25 and so if we didn't have that driving down the West Coast, we have about 50 basis points more in growth. And so our costs would actually look very similar to 2024.

所以這實際上給我們 25 年造成了約 200 萬至 300 萬美元的拖累，因此，如果我們沒有受到西海岸的影響，我們的增長將增加約 50 個基點。因此我們的成本實際上與 2024 年的成本非常相似。

And then specific to the Sunbelt, it really comes back down to the other income growth again, which, again, we had close to 14% growth in 2024. Expectations are that we're going to have around 12% this year.

然後具體到陽光地帶，它實際上歸結為其他收入的成長，到 2024 年，我們的收入成長率接近 14%。我們預計今年的增幅將達到 12% 左右。

And then as far as -- just to put a ribbon around Salinas, Monterey Peninsula. We do have a plan to try to get back in there, get the submeters going, and so we can start to recapture a lot of that income we're going in '25 and that's probably more of a '26 and '27 initiative.

然後至於——只需在蒙特雷半島的薩利納斯周圍畫一條絲帶。我們確實有一個計劃，試圖回到那裡，讓分錶運轉起來，這樣我們就可以開始重新獲得我們在'25 年的大部分收入，這可能更像是'26 年和'27 年的一項舉措。

That's really helpful. And then just switching gears kind of high level, maybe Tom or Joe, I'm just kind of interested in your view about a potential privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie and just the impact you think it could have on broader housing market, transaction market and obviously multifamily.

這真的很有幫助。然後換個話題，也許是湯姆或喬，我只是對你對房利美和房地美潛在私有化的看法感興趣，以及你認為它可能對更廣泛的房地產市場、交易市場和多戶住宅產生的影響。

This is Toomey. I'm not sure anybody is going to make a very long living predicting what's coming out of Washington these days. And so I will just pass and let the cards fall where they -- they seem to have a lot of other things that they're working on before they get to the GSCs in that aspect. It's a very high functioning group. It stabilizes the market.

這是圖米。我不確定是否有人能夠靠預測華盛頓最近將發生的事情而長期謀生。因此我將直接傳遞，讓事情按照他們的想法發展——在進入 GSC 之前，他們似乎還有很多其他事情要做。這是一個運作非常有效率的團體。它穩定了市場。

I don't think anyone wants to see any of that disappear. And so then in whose hands it's and how it's run. I'll leave it to the people that have a say over that to speculate and deal with.

我想沒有人希望看到這些消失。那麼它在誰的手中以及它如何運作。我會讓那些有發言權的人去猜測和處理。

Michael Goldsmith, UBS.

瑞銀的麥可‧戈德史密斯。

How much occupancy are you willing to sacrifice to push rate in the peak season? And how much rate growth you need to see during that peak season to hit the guidance range?

您願意犧牲多少入住率來提高旺季的入住率？那麼，在旺季期間，利率需要成長多少才能達到指導範圍？

Sure. I think that's sizes. So I think, first of all, the way we think about -- paid-off. 1% of rent loss approximately $26 per home. It's equal to about $7 million a year, you mentioned.

當然。我認為這就是尺寸。因此我認為，首先，我們思考的方式是──得到回報。每套房屋的租金損失 1% 約為 26 美元。正如您所提到的，這相當於每年約 700 萬美元。

When I think about occupancy, 1% of occupancy is about 550 homes at $2,600. That's about $17 million in a given year. So the way we think about it is if we lower occupancy by, say, 30, 40 basis points, we would need 100 basis points in rent just to breakeven in a given year.

當我考慮入住率時，1% 的入住率相當於 550 套房屋，價格為 2,600 美元。這相當於每年約 1700 萬美元。因此，我們的想法是，如果我們將入住率降低 30 或 40 個基點，那麼我們需要 100 個基點的租金才能在某一年實現收支平衡。

I don't know if you can capture that in the shoulder quarters where you have low demand. And so you've seen it with our strategy. As demand starts to pick up, we let our occupancy migrate down, and we're willing to take that bet that if we can't capture another call it, 1% or more on rent. But again, during the shoulder quarters, we think it's a prudent strategy to try to drive that occupancy up and prepare for that period of time where you can really drive your rent.

我不知道你是否能在需求較低的肩部區域捕捉到這一點。所以您已經看到了我們的策略。隨著需求開始回升，我們會讓入住率下降，我們願意打賭，如果我們不能再獲得 1% 或更高的租金。但是，我們認為，在旺季期間，嘗試提高入住率並為真正提高租金的那段時期做好準備是一種審慎的策略。

I do think it's credible to -- Michael. As you think about your comment or question about how much are we willing to sacrifice. Part of that occupancy strategy is occupancy versus rate, but I don't want it to get lost on the group in terms of customer experience and a decreased turnover component. I think Mike referenced earlier the continued decrease in turnover in January, that's part of the surge in that occupancy. So it's not necessarily occupancy and rate trade all the time.

我確實認為這是可信的——邁克爾。當您思考您的評論或問題時，我們願意做出多少犧牲。入住率策略的一部分是入住率與房價，但我不希望集團在客戶體驗和營業額下降方面失去這一優勢。我認為麥克之前提到的 1 月營業額持續下降是入住率激增的部分原因。因此，不一定一直都是入住率和利率交易。

Sometimes it's good customer service that just results in better occupancy and residents wanting to stay longer. So there's two components to it, as you think through it.

有時良好的客戶服務可以提高入住率，讓住戶願意住得更久。所以，如果你仔細想想，它有兩個組成部分。

That's helpful context. And my second question is we've discussed the trajectory of blended rent trend, but maybe looking at same-store revenue growth. Is there any lumpiness in? Or is there any expected lumpiness of that through the year due to idiosyncratic factors for either positive or negative?

這是很有幫助的背景資訊。我的第二個問題是，我們討論了混合租金趨勢的軌跡，但也許會關注同店收入成長。裡面有腫塊嗎？或者，由於特殊因素（無論是正面的還是負面的）的影響，全年是否會出現預期的波動？

No. I mean, for us, when we look at the cadence of growth throughout the year, expectations are the first half of the year is a little bit lower in the back half, maybe call it 2% to 2.5% and then in the back half. we're probably closer to that 2.5%, maybe reaching upwards of the 3%, but not a whole lot of lumpiness. It's pretty consistent.

不。我的意思是，對我們來說，當我們觀察全年的成長節奏時，預計上半年會比下半年稍微低一些，可能在 2% 到 2.5% 之間，然後是下半年。我們可能更接近 2.5%，也許會達到 3% 以上，但不會有太大的波動。它相當一致。

Brad Heffern, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的布拉德‧赫弗恩 (Brad Heffern)。

You mentioned a number of uncertainties in the slides. All of those are regulatory or political in some way. It seems like you don't want to predict those. I don't blame you for that. But I'm curious if you've risked those items in the guidance at all?

您在幻燈片中提到了許多不確定性因素。所有這些都是監管性的或政治性的。看來你不想預測這些。我不怪你。但我很好奇，您是否冒著指導中提到的這些項目的風險？

And how much specifically with regard to dose and immigration?

那麼劑量和移民方面具體有多少關係呢？

We have not. I mean it's why there is a range around our base case. And I think uncertainties could be both positive and negative in all of these. As you think about regulatory risk, there's the state and local regulatory risk that we talk about a lot with things like rent control or pet fees, deposits -- something of that nature. But there's also less regulation that we think we may see at the federal level both from a legislative and legal perspective, but also just in terms of small business formation, medium-sized business formation, which is really the driver of job growth across this country with over 50% of employment coming from the small business side.

我們沒有。我的意思是這就是為什麼我們的基本情況周圍有一個範圍。我認為，所有這些的不確定性都既有積極的，也有消極的。當您考慮監管風險時，我們會考慮州和地方的監管風險，我們經常討論的監管風險包括租金管制、寵物費用、押金等諸如此類的事情。但我們認為，無論是從立法和法律角度，還是從聯邦層面，對小型企業成立和中型企業成立的監管都可能會有所減少，而這些企業才是全國就業成長的真正動力，超過 50% 的就業機會來自小型企業。

So I think if we see what happened in the first administration where you've cut some of that red tape, that actually could be a positive uncertainty in all of this.

因此，我認為，如果我們看到第一屆政府削減了一些繁文縟節的情況，這實際上可能為這一切帶來積極的不確定性。

I think the same thing could be said about those on a federal perspective the question remains as to where they concentrate potentially some of their head cuts or entitlements or pork or anything of that nature. It may impact different markets differently. But at the federal level, it could actually be positive including for the interest rate environment. So we put a range around this to try to factor that in. But it's hard to say they're all negatives are all positives.

我認為從聯邦政府的角度來看，情況也是如此，問題仍然是，他們將把部分人頭稅、福利、豬肉或任何類似的東西集中在哪裡。它可能對不同的市場產生不同的影響。但在聯邦層面，這實際上可能是積極的，包括對利率環境而言。因此，我們設定了一個範圍，嘗試將其考慮在內。但很難說它們都是負面的或都是正面的。

Okay. Got it. And then a question on the customer experience project. Obviously, everybody has been seeing record low turnover. So I'm curious how you're separating out the benefit specifically of that program.

好的。知道了。然後是關於客戶體驗專案的問題。顯然，每個人都看到了創紀錄的低營業額。所以我很好奇你是如何具體分離出該計劃的益處的。

versus just how the broader market is acting. And then what sort of gives us the confidence that you can move turnover even lower from record levels already.

而不是整體市場的表現。那麼，什麼讓我們有信心可以將營業額從已經創紀錄的水平進一步降低呢？

Right. Yes. We look at this in both an absolute and a relative basis. And so what I would tell you is going back to 1Q of '23, on an absolute basis, we're down about 3.5%. And on a relative basis over that same period of time, we've improved by about 200 basis points against -- the period.

正確的。是的。我們從絕對和相對兩個角度來看這個問題。因此，我想告訴您的是，回到 23 年第一季度，從絕對基礎來看，我們下降了約 3.5%。而相對而言，在同一時期內，我們的業績較上一時期提高了約 200 個基點。

So we watch it against how we can have everybody else. Not just in the fact that everybody's turnover is down. And I'll tell you why we still believe it because we do have a ton of data. Tom talked about it a little bit previously, but it's upwards of 800 million data elements at this point. We're adding a million a day, and so we have the team in place. We have the dashboards bill, and we have dedicated resources that are watching every day, creating touch points with our residents, and we see it playing out.

因此，我們觀察它，並思考我們如何擁有其他人。不只是每個人的營業額都下降了。我會告訴你為什麼我們仍然相信它，因為我們確實有大量的數據。湯姆之前談到了這一點，但目前數據元素數量已超過 8 億。我們每天新增一百萬，因此我們已經有合適的團隊。我們有儀表板帳單，我們有專門的資源在每天監控，與我們的居民建立接觸點，我們看到它的進展。

And again, I saw it play out again in January. Expectations are that February is going to be another month that's down on a year-over-year basis. And this isn't even factoring in all the stuff that we have planned for this year. And I'll tell you what I'm most excited about is the fact that we're able to spend a little bit more on NOI-enhancing CapEx to try to drive problems down that we know are an issue at these sites that we do think will be the -- impact to the list.

我在一月再次看到這樣的事發生。預計二月又將是一個同比下降的月份。這還沒有把我們今年計劃的所有事情都考慮進去。我要告訴你，最讓我興奮的是，我們能夠在提高淨營運收入的資本支出上多花一點錢，試圖減少這些站點存在的問題，我們確實認為這些問題會對名單產生影響。

And then also the rollout of Funnel, I spoke to a little bit with our CRM. We think that's going to pay a lot of dividends throughout the year, too. So there's a lot more to come on this front. We're still continuing to work on it.

然後也推出了 Funnel，我與我們的 CRM 進行了一些討論。我們認為這也將在全年帶來豐厚的回報。因此，在這方面還有很多工作要做。我們仍在繼續努力。

Alexander Goldfarb, Piper Sandler.

亞歷山大·戈德法布，派珀·桑德勒。

Here. Two questions. First, on the other income, you guys have certainly been on the forefront of growing different entities, the different services that you offer for your residents. But at the same time, we still talk about earnings growth and revenue growth based on supply/demand in the general apartment sector. So do you feel that these efforts are truly accelerating overall earnings growth?

這裡。兩個問題。首先，在其他收入方面，你們無疑一直處於發展不同實體、為居民提供不同服務的前沿。但同時，我們仍然談論基於一般公寓領域的供需情況的獲利成長和收入成長。那麼，您是否認為這些努力確實加速了整體獲利成長？

Or is it sort of a pie mix where you can either push rent or push these other fees, but the tenant -- the resident still looks at the whole on shoulder together. They don't say, oh, I can stomach a rent increase and then I can stomach these incremental fees.

或者這是一種混合方案，你可以提高租金或提高其他費用，但租戶 - 居民仍然需要共同承擔整體責任。他們不會說，哦，我可以忍受租金上漲，然後我也可以忍受這些增量費用。

Alex, that's a constant source of discussion internally. As we think about effectively where we're going is the cannibalization concept of if you're going to pay more over in one bucket, are you willing to pay as much in the other bucket. And we have done a bunch of past work and studies on that to ensure we are capturing what we believe is the total amount of other income that we should receive while not cannibalizing rent component. Now I think one of the things that we do that's very helpful for the resident and gets us kudos from resident is all-in pricing upfront on our website where you can go in and select your unit, you can pick what amenities or what other income items you're going to have, you can see what your utility bill will typically be. And so right upfront, we're being very transparent, which is a rarity within the industry.

亞歷克斯，這是內部持續討論的話題。當我們有效地思考時，我們要去的地方就是蠶食概念，如果你要在一個桶子裡支付更多，你是否願意在另一個桶子裡支付同樣多的費用。我們過去在這方面做了大量的工作和研究，以確保我們能夠獲得我們認為應該獲得的其他收入總額，同時不會蠶食租金部分。現在我認為我們所做的事情之一對住戶非常有幫助並且得到了住戶的稱讚，那就是在我們的網站上預先提供全包價格，您可以進入並選擇您的單位，您可以選擇要擁有的便利設施或其他收入項目，您可以看到您的水電費通常是多少。因此，從一開始我們就非常透明，這在業界是罕見的。

I think residents appreciate that because they know now the total check they're coming in with. They're not surprised when they get through their first month of residency. And then when it comes to renewal, we don't have that feeling (inaudible) So I think we're trying to address it by being transparent with the resident and then also doing our own back checks to make sure we don't cannibalize rents.

我認為居民們對此很感激，因為他們現在知道了他們將獲得的支票總額。當他們度過第一個月的居住期時，他們並不感到驚訝。然後當談到續約時，我們沒有那種感覺（聽不清楚）所以我認為我們正在嘗試透過對居民保持透明來解決這個問題，然後我們自己進行背景檢查，以確保我們不會對租金造成蠶食。

Alex, just quickly, these are also win-wins for us and our residents. And so when we think about this, like Wi-Fi, as an example, we are very competitive with our pricing. We're trying to provide a benefit that helps them out, it helps us sell. It gives them access to Wi-Fi across the property. And quite frankly, it helps with our self-guided tour process.

亞歷克斯，很快，這對我們和我們的居民來說也是雙贏的。因此，當我們考慮這一點時，以 Wi-Fi 為例，我們的定價非常有競爭力。我們正在嘗試提供一種能夠幫助他們並幫助我們銷售的福利。他們可以用它在整個酒店內使用 Wi-Fi。坦白說，它對我們的自助遊過程很有幫助。

So there's that -- I mean, things like reserve parking we're trying to identify spots that are actually better for our residents to make it more efficient for them. So a lot of these things we keep in mind how will it benefit them as well as us.

所以就是這樣——我的意思是，諸如預留停車位之類的事情，我們正在嘗試找出對我們的居民實際上更有利的停車位，以提高他們的效率。因此，我們會牢記很多這些事情，看看它們會為我們和他們帶來什麼好處。

Okay. The second question is on the debt and preferred equity business -- can appreciate Philly probably was done. But as you guys look at new investments, Are there any changes to underwriting or geographies that you would no longer look at? Or was the fill sort of an isolated one and these other two watchlists are I'm just trying to see, were there any learnings from these that going forward, you would change? Or this is just part of the business and it's why the yields are the way the yields are?

好的。第二個問題是關於債務和優先股業務——可以理解費城可能已經完成了。但是，當你們考慮新的投資時，承保或地理位置方面是否有任何變化以至於你們不再考慮？或者填充是一種孤立的填充，而另外兩個監視清單是我只是想看看，從中您是否可以學到什麼可以在未來進行改變的經驗？或者這只是業務的一部分，這也是為什麼收益率會是這樣的？

Yes, it's a great question, and I think it wasn't fun. It's a very fair terminology to utilize and working through that. But I think we had any changes. When you look at the structure of the book, look at the components of how much is on development versus operating assets now. So we've continued to ramp up the amount that we have within the operating kind of recap side of the portfolio.

是的，這是一個很好的問題，但我認為這並不有趣。這是一個非常公平的術語，可以利用並解決這個問題。但我認為我們確實做出了一些改變。當你查看該書的結構時，請查看目前開發資產與營運資產的組成部分。因此，我們持續增加投資組合中經營性回顧部分的金額。

And I think we're up to 30%-plus of the deals now have a current cash pay component. And so we are pivoting a little bit in terms of the book of business. And then you get into the lessons learned component. I do think there are quite a few that lever time -- I mean from a lower loan-to-cost perspective. I think when we look at development deals going forward, we've definitely committed to ensuring that we're at a lower loan to cost than perhaps we were back during COVID years.

我認為現在已有超過 30% 的交易包含現金支付部分。因此，我們在業務方面進行了一些調整。然後您就會進入經驗教訓部分。我確實認為有相當多的人可以利用時間——我的意思是從較低的貸款成本角度來看。我認為，當我們展望未來的發展交易時，我們肯定會致力於確保我們的貸款成本低於新冠疫情期間的水平。

I think ensuring some constraints to make sure these don't get as drawn out because when they get drawn out, while we continue to improve earnings, ultimately, it may put the equity partners back against the wall a little bit. More utilization of our marketing and analytics team. A number of these challenges are really driven by supply to some degree. And so we find high supply concentration, definitely negatively impacted rent and NOI growth profiles and therefore, ability to recap these investments.

我認為要確保一些限制，以確保這些限制不會被拖延，因為當它們被拖延時，雖然我們繼續提高收益，但最終可能會讓股權合夥人陷入困境。更好地利用我們的行銷和分析團隊。從某種程度上來說，這些挑戰實際上是由供應引起的。因此，我們發現供應集中度高，肯定會對租金和淨營運收入成長狀況產生負面影響，進而影響收回這些投資的能力。

And then I think just the scenario analysis. We did not underwrite that during the COVID years of when we were kind of 4 cap or sub-4 cap that you're going to see a run-up in raise some borrowing cost of [ 100 to 200 ] basis points and an increase in cap rates to that degree. So in area of analysis to work through and ensure that in various scenarios, we do see the paybacks. And so there's a number of lessons learned and approaches to structure the book of business as well.

然後我認為只是情境分析。我們沒有保證在 COVID 期間，當我們處於 4 倍上限或 4 倍以下上限時，您會看到借貸成本上升 [ 100 到 200 ] 個基點，並且資本化率也會上升到那種程度。因此，在分析領域中，我們要努力確保在各種情況下，我們都能看到回報。因此，我們也可以從中吸取許多經驗教訓，並找到建立業務帳簿的方法。

John Kim, BMO Capital Markets.

BMO 資本市場部的 John Kim 說。

Just going back to other income, the 65-basis-point addition to things to revenue, actually seems a little bit light because it implies $10 million in revenue. Last year, you aim for $10 million in NOI. You're suggesting another $60 million that you're expecting going forward. Can you just comment on that? And also remind us what your typical margins are on the other income?

回到其他收入，在收入中增加 65 個基點實際上似乎有點輕，因為這意味著 1000 萬美元的收入。去年，您的淨營運收入目標是 1,000 萬美元。您建議未來再增加 6,000 萬美元。您能對此發表評論嗎？另外提醒我們一下，您其他收入的典型利潤率是多少？

Yes. The margins vary by initiative, I can tell you for something like the Wi-Fi, we charge around $70 on average, and it cost us around $20 on average. So that's a pretty strong margin and things like parking, obviously, it doesn't cost us anything to try to drive up more reserve parking. So huge margin there. And then things like short-term furnished rentals, we do have a lower margin on that book of business, and we've been actively bringing that down over the last couple of years, just trying to make sure that we're achieving the highest cash flow we can.

是的。利潤率因計劃而異，我可以告訴你，以 Wi-Fi 為例，我們的平均收費約為 70 美元，而它的平均成本約為 20 美元。所以這是一個相當可觀的利潤空間，而對於停車等問題，顯然，我們不需要花費任何成本來增加更多的預留停車位。那裡的利潤非常大。然後諸如短期家具租賃之類的業務，我們在該業務上的利潤率確實較低，過去幾年我們一直在積極降低這一利潤率，只是想確保我們實現最高的現金流。

So they're all a little bit different. But for us, again, the 8% growth last year was very strong. And basically, to repeat that, we feel pretty good about it. Obviously, we're always looking to that $60 million, that number I referenced earlier, into initiatives that we can pick and choose from and try to drive it higher throughout the year, which last year, we had a lower bar and we ended up exceeding it. I hope you're right.

所以它們都有點不同。但對我們來說，去年 8% 的成長率已經非常強勁了。基本上，我再說一遍，我們對此感覺非常好。顯然，我們始終將那 6000 萬美元（我之前提到的數字）投入到我們可以挑選的計劃中，並嘗試在全年推動其不斷提高，而去年，我們的標準較低，但最終還是超過了這個標準。我希望你是對的。

I hope we can do that again in 2025 -- those based on everything we see today, we feel like that seen is a pretty good number.

我希望我們能在 2025 年再次做到這一點——基於我們今天看到的一切，我們覺得這是一個相當不錯的數字。

Yes. Okay. And then Mike, you mentioned rent control in Monterey Peninsula, which is a little disconcerting because rent certainly haven't gone up that much. But can you comment on whether or not there's a vacancy decontrol components to that new measure? And are you concerned or are you hearing rumblings of similar rent control measures in other markets?

是的。好的。然後麥克，你提到了蒙特雷半島的租金管制，這有點令人不安，因為租金肯定沒有上漲那麼多。但您能否評論一下這項新措施中是否包含空缺職位解除管制部分？您是否擔心或聽過其他市場也推出類似的租金管制措施？

John, this is Chris. We can look at that a little bit further, but it does have to be abided by Costa Hawkins. So there is no -- I don't feel that there's a vacancy control measure.

約翰，這是克里斯。我們可以進一步研究這個問題，但科斯塔霍金斯必須遵守它。所以沒有——我不認為有空置控制措施。

And any commentary on other markets?

對其他市場還有什麼評論嗎？

The biggest thing we're looking at this year, there's commentary out of Washington state. A couple of bills at the state level. Obviously, we're looking at if there's an agency legislation in California, especially at the state level as far as rent freezes, et cetera. Those are kind of the two big focal points, I would say, right now.

今年我們關注的最重要的事情是來自華盛頓州的評論。幾項州一級的法案。顯然，我們正在研究加州是否有代理立法，特別是在州一級關於凍結租金等方面的立法。我想說，它們是目前的兩個主要焦點。

Julien Blouin, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的朱利安布魯因 (Julien Blouin)。

I might have missed it, but can you give us a sense of January blends and new lease rate growth by region? And also one of your Sunbelt peers was noting that pricing events in January felt better than normal seasonality. I guess, are you seeing that in your own portfolio?

我可能錯過了，但您能給我們介紹一下各地區一月份混合油和新租賃率的成長嗎？而且，您的一位陽光地帶同行指出，一月份的定價活動比正常的季節性價格活動要好。我想，您在自己的投資組合中看到了這一點嗎？

Hi, Julien. You didn't miss it. We didn't give necessarily the exact numbers, but what I would tell you again is occupancy is higher than we expect it to end of the year, turnover is lower than we expect and we're right on track when we look at our initiatives related to other income as well as our blends. So we feel pretty good about January right now. And quite frankly, we're in February, and that feels pretty good.

你好，朱利安。你沒有錯過。我們並沒有給出確切的數字，但我要再次告訴你們的是，入住率高於我們預期的年底水平，營業額低於我們的預期，而且，當我們審視與其他收入以及混合收入相關的舉措時，我們正走在正確的軌道上。因此我們現在對一月份的感覺相當良好。坦白說，現在已經是二月了，感覺非常好。

Okay. Got it. And then maybe a second one. I mean, when we look at some of the really strong Sunbelt absorption numbers that continue to come through in the fourth quarter, on the face of it, it maybe seems even better than I would expect from current levels of job growth or migration trends in those markets. Do you feel that, that speaks to the pent-up demand in those markets from several years about this migration and job growth.

好的。知道了。然後也許還有第二個。我的意思是，當我們看看第四季度繼續出現的一些真正強勁的陽光地帶吸收數據時，從表面上看，它可能比我根據這些市場目前的就業成長水平或移民趨勢所預期的還要好。您是否覺得這說明這些市場多年來對移民和就業成長的需求被壓抑了。

And at some point, do we have to start worrying about maybe these high levels of absorption starting to deplete that pent-up demand?

在某個時候，我們是否必須開始擔心，這些高水準的吸收可能會開始耗盡被壓抑的需求？

Julien. it's Joe. I think it's kind of three different factors. The first is we've talked a lot about the relative affordability component. So the total household formation activity this year hasn't been materially different than what we've seen in the past.

朱利安。是喬。我認為這是三種不同的因素。首先，我們已經討論了很多關於相對可負擔性部分的問題。因此，今年的家庭組成總量與我們過去看到的並沒有實質的差異。

But given the lack of new housing being built and then the lack of existing homes being sold, you've seen more household formations pivot over towards the rentership side, which we've talked about in the past when you got into the mid-20 tons we kind of saw rentership society take place given the relative affordability. So that feels like a multiyear trend, mainly because we don't expect home prices to come down and rates need to come down 100 to 200 basis points just to get back to a pre-COVID level in terms of affordability. So it's a little bit of that.

但是，由於新建住房不足，現有住房出售不足，您會看到更多的家庭組成轉向租房，我們在過去談到過，當您進入 20 世紀中葉時，我們看到租房社會在相對負擔得起的情況下出現。所以這感覺像是一個多年的趨勢，主要是因為我們預計房價不會下跌，利率需要下降 100 到 200 個基點才能恢復到 COVID 之前的負擔能力水平。確實有一點這樣的。

And again, you are hearing -- homes of individuals coming off the couches and some get in other renter's basements. So when you look at younger age cohorts, you're seeing a little bit of that, which there's been a pretty high level of younger age cohorts living at home. And so you're starting to hear a little bit of that as they've built up their savings and got into their income-producing years.

而且，您還會聽到——有些人從沙發上下來，有些人進入其他租戶的地下室。因此，當你觀察到較年輕的年齡層時，你會看到一點這樣的情況，即住在家裡的年輕年齡組的比例相當高。當他們累積了儲蓄並進入收入年齡時，你會開始聽到一些這樣的說法。

And then lastly, as you see more and more return to work and return to office, that does bring people back in and get them off couches at home as well. And so there's a couple of different trends that are providing a tailwind during the phase of record supply. As we talked about, we're kind of going more normal supply here as we move into '25 and decrease in '26. And so I think those trends generally probably remain in place. The big one will obviously just be what even on the demand from a jobs perspective.

最後，隨著你看到越來越多的人重返工作崗位和辦公室，這確實會讓人們回來並讓他們離開家裡的沙發。因此，有幾種不同的趨勢在創紀錄供應階段提供了順風。正如我們所討論的，隨著進入'25年，我們的供應將更加正常，而到'26年供應將減少。因此我認為這些趨勢總體上可能仍會持續下去。顯然，最大的問題在於從就業角度來看需求如何。

Alex Kalmus, Zelman & Associates.

亞歷克斯·卡爾穆斯（Alex Kalmus），澤爾曼及合夥人。

First off, congratulations to Mike and Joe, for your new roles at firm, wanted to ask about your strategy for potential acquisitions this year. There's definitely more optimism for unlocked seller supply at NMHC last week and is there any upside to that acquisition volume from what you're hearing? And any particular markets that might be in focus at the moment.

首先，恭喜 Mike 和 Joe 在公司擔任新職務，想詢問一下你們今年潛在收購的策略。上週 NMHC 的解鎖賣方供應量肯定更樂觀，從您所聽到的消息來看，收購量有任何上升空間嗎？以及目前可能關注的任何特定市場。

Hi, Alex. It's Joe. There definitely was a lot of optimism in NMHC in terms of not just the go-forward fundamental picture, but a lot of capital out there looking for transactions on the multifamily side. obviously continues to be one of the favorite asset classes out there. I think one of the best challenges, however, is that the sellers see that same dynamic.

你好，亞歷克斯。是喬。就 NMHC 未來的基本面而言，確實存在著許多樂觀情緒，而且有大量資本在尋求多戶型住宅交易。顯然仍然是最受歡迎的資產類別之一。然而，我認為最大的挑戰之一是賣家也看到同樣的動態。

And so unless you're a force seller due to duration of funding coming up on the end of a fund. Do you have a capital event, such as a refinancing -- that you don't think you're going to be able to effectuate. You're just not seeing many assets come to market. And so the bullishness on the buyer side is kind of lines on the seller side though, that is keeping transaction volumes down where we're focused is, obviously, with our joint venture partner, LaSalle and trying to effectuate a couple of deals there with them. We're talking about a couple of different target markets, which we're still aligning on and making sure we work through.

因此，除非您由於基金期限即將結束而被迫出售。您是否遇到了諸如再融資之類的資本事件，而您認為自己無法實現它。你只是沒有看到太多資產進入市場。因此，買方的看漲情緒在某種程度上與賣方的看漲情緒一致，這使得交易量保持在較低水平，而我們關注的重點顯然是與我們的合資夥伴 LaSalle 合作，並試圖與他們達成幾筆交易。我們正在討論幾個不同的目標市場，我們仍在協調並確保能夠努力實現這些目標。

So I'm not prepared to talk about that right now. But it's going to be typically that two- to three-year-old product to a maximum is going to have a nice value-add component that we can get off to either our operational team and/or our redevelopment team to try to get a lift in NOI for on-balance sheet transactions, we will continue to look at those as well as continue to look at disposition activity and see if maybe we can enhance the cash flow growth profile of the company over time.

所以我現在還不准備談論這個問題。但通常情況下，最多兩到三年的產品將具有很好的增值組件，我們可以將其交給我們的營運團隊和/或重建團隊，以嘗試提高資產負債表內交易的淨營運收入，我們將繼續關注這些，並繼續關注處置活動，看看我們是否可以隨著時間的推移提高公司的現金流增長狀況。

Got it. Makes sense. And I know you touched on it earlier, but just on your recent partnership with Funnel, are there any additional details you can provide about the partnership? And maybe more specifically, its effect on NOI or how it fits into the context of the technology and innovation initiatives you've been rolling up.

知道了。有道理。我知道您之前提到過這個，但就您最近與 Funnel 的合作而言，您能提供有關該合作的更多詳細資訊嗎？也許更具體地說，它對 NOI 的影響或它如何適應您所採用的技術和創新舉措的背景。

I'll take that. I think for us specific to the rollout of it, it's really going to help allow us to drive the customer experience project even further. And again, it's not the end all be all with how we think about innovation. It's going to allow us to really spend more time on all these other ideas and all the data that we have on the customer experience, how we can leverage that because we're not going to have to deal with a lot of the back office, pieces that we were dealing with because, quite frankly, Funnel wasn't around when we started our own CRM probably three years ago. And so we've had a -- notion that for quite a long time.

我接受。我認為對我們來說，具體到推出這項產品而言，它確實有助於我們進一步推動客戶體驗專案。再次強調，這並不是我們看待創新的全部。這將使我們能夠真正花更多時間在所有其他想法以及有關客戶體驗的所有數據上，我們如何利用這些數據，因為我們不必處理很多後台事務，因為坦白說，大概三年前我們開始建立自己的 CRM 時，Funnel 還沒有出現。所以我們很長一段時間以來都有這樣的想法。

This is going to allow us to leverage a group that's done a really good job with it.

這將使我們能夠利用一個在這方面做得非常出色的團隊。

And I'd say, in addition to that, we had plans around our online leasing process, our move-in process and something we call omni-channel just a more seamless streamlined approach to how we communicate with prospects and residents. So there's a lot of benefits that are going to come with this, and we're just now scratching the service. We're going to learn a lot over the next three to six months.

我想說，除此之外，我們還制定了線上租賃流程、入住流程以及全通路的計劃，這是一種與潛在客戶和居民溝通的更無​​縫的簡化方法。因此，這項服務將會帶來許多好處，而我們現在才剛開始提供這項服務。我們將在接下來的三到六個月裡學到很多。

Haendel St. Juste, Mizuho Securities.

Haendel St. Juste、瑞穗證券。

Thanks for hanging in there. Two quick ones for me. First, a follow-up on development. I guess I'm curious (technical difficulty)

感謝您的堅持。對我來說有兩個簡單的問題。第一，跟進發展。我想我很好奇（技術難度）

You're breaking up.

你要分手了。

My first question is on development. I'm curious how you guys are (technical difficulty)

我的第一個問題是關於發展的問題。我很好奇你們怎麼樣（技術難度）

We lost you again.

我們再次失去了你。

Operator, can we have a jump back in the queue?

接線員，我們可以重新排隊嗎？

Linda Tsai, Jefferies.

傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的 Linda Tsai。

Just one. You said turnover would be 100 bps lower this year. It sounds like it's mostly from operational improvements. Are there certain markets where you see larger opportunities to reduce turnover?

只有一個。您說今年的營業額將會下降 100 個基點。聽起來這主要來自於操作的改進。您是否在某些特定市場中看到了降低營業額的更大機會？

Good question. I'd tell you, again, we put 100 bps into our can for the year. And again, just looking at January, February, we're between 400 and 500 bps better than the prior year. So we're off to a really good start. And I can tell you when I look at our markets, our regions, we're seeing a pretty consistent downward trend across the board.

好問題。我再告訴你們一次，我們今年的投入是 100 個基點。再者，光是看一月和二月，我們的成長速度就比去年同期高出 400 到 500 個基點。因此，我們的開局非常好。我可以告訴你，當我觀察我們的市場、我們的地區時，我們發現全盤呈現相當一致的下降趨勢。

I mean it was pretty amazing to see just January was sub-30% turnover. I've never seen a number like that. And so it's pretty much broad-based across the country because with the implementation of our CRM, all the efforts that we have on the data we are backing in every market, every property and quite frankly, every individual resident that we have at the property. So it should be kind of broad-based.

我的意思是，1 月份的營業額低於 30％ 真是令人驚訝。我從來沒有見過這樣的數字。因此，這項服務在全國範圍內具有廣泛的基礎，因為隨著我們 CRM 的實施，我們在每個市場、每個房產以及坦率地說，在我們房產中的每一位居民的數據上所做的所有努力都得到了支持。因此它應該是廣泛的。

Are there more costs associated with reducing that turnover?

減少營業額是否會產生更多成本？

A little bit. This year, we're placing a little bit more of a bigger bet in terms of some of our CapEx spend. And so again, we're going in -- we've identified some properties where we've had just recurring issues as it relates to HVAC or water heaters or things of that nature. And if we can get in there and try to fix some of these recurring issues, we think that we can also limit how many people are moving out on a given basis. So a little bit more as it relates to the CapEx balance, but not necessarily on our OpEx.

有一點。今年，我們在部分資本支出投入的力道更大一些。因此，我們再次深入研究——我們已經確定了一些房產，這些房產在暖通空調或熱水器或類似性質的東西方面反覆出現問題。如果我們能夠介入並嘗試解決一些反覆出現的問題，我們認為我們也可以限制在特定基礎上搬出的人數。因此，它與資本支出平衡有關，但不一定與我們的營運支出有關。

Tayo Okusanya, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的 Tayo Okusanya。

Perfect. Sorry about that. So just a quick question. One of your peers is kind of increasingly doing more in terms of just kind of like townhouse, townhome type product. kind of looking a little bit more like FFR products.

完美的。很抱歉。這只是一個簡單的問題。您的一位同行在聯排別墅、城鎮住宅類型的產品方面做得越來越多。看起來有點像 FFR 產品。

I'm just kind of curious how you guys think about that as an opportunity, especially given you already in kind of some of the key FFR markets.

我只是有點好奇你們如何看待這個機會，特別是考慮到你們已經進入一些關鍵的 FFR 市場。

This is Toomey. Yes, it's a product I'm quite familiar with and have done in times in the past. And if you go down to our Vitruvian development in Dallas, you'll find that we've put up 85 homes down there on the townhome product, it only fits where you don't have enough density opportunity, okay? And so you look at long-term hold periods and you think about a site and where you would get the most cash flow. Density is always something we're striving for why it just gives us a bigger capital footprint and opportunity to grow.

這是圖米。是的，這是我非常熟悉的產品，以前也用過。如果你去我們位於達拉斯的 Vitruvian 開發項目，你會發現我們在那裡建造了 85 套聯排別墅產品，這種產品只適合人口密度不夠的地方，好嗎？因此，您需要考慮長期持有期，並考慮一個可以獲得最多現金流的地點。我們始終追求密度，因為它能為我們帶來更大的資本足跡和成長機會。

So it fits, it's generally more of a suburban farther out fringe product. It can be a lot of good Phase 2 type of development activity. So we're familiar with it, when we find sites that fit that template certainly have the capability to execute. Leaning in, I think we look down the whole risk reward grid of our capital deployment, and Joe's in charge of that now.

所以它很適合，它通常更像是郊區較遠的邊緣產品。這可以是很多優秀的第二階段類型的開發活動。所以我們對此很熟悉，當我們找到適合該模板的網站時肯定具有執行能力。傾身向前，我認為我們審視了我們的資本部署的整個風險回報網格，而喬現在負責這件事。

Haendel St. Juste.

亨德爾·聖朱斯特。

I apologize for that earlier. I had two quick ones. First is on development. I guess I'm curious how you're factoring in potentially higher input costs from potential tariffs, lumber labor into the high 5 yield targets you mentioned. And of the two or three projects that you were looking to start near term, how much of those costs are locked in?

我之前已經為此道歉了。我有兩個很快的。首先是發展。我很好奇您是如何將潛在關稅、木材勞動力等可能增加的投入成本納入您提到的 5 個高收益目標中的。在您計劃近期啟動的兩個或三個專案中，有多少成本是鎖定的？

Yes. So you're seeing costs come down there for a short period of time kind of early '24, cost settlements have really kind of stabilized at this point in time. So in our underwriting, have factored in some inflationary pressures. We are out there on our first start out and bidding that out and trying to lock in costs right now. And so that is in process, piece of the project, the starts that could potentially be in the second half of this year.

是的。因此，您會看到成本在 24 年初的短時間內下降，成本結算在此時確實已經穩定下來。因此，我們在承保時已經考慮了一些通膨壓力。我們正處於首次起步階段，正在進行投標並試圖鎖定成本。這是正在進行的項目的一部分，可能會在今年下半年開始。

We've got estimates that they are not locked in at this point in time. So that's a little bit fluid. I think while on the tariff front, there's going to be a couple of concerns if, in fact, those tariffs actually stick and at what level. The lumber side of the equation would be kind of the near-term concern with the lumber supply coming from Canada. There's obviously other things like mechanicals and glass and things of that nature that may be at risk to depending on the origin source.

我們估計他們目前還沒有被鎖定。所以這有點不穩定。我認為，在關稅方面，人們會擔心這些關稅是否真的會維持以及維持在什麼水準。等式的木材方面可能是近期對來自加拿大的木材供應的擔憂。顯然，還有其他東西，例如機械、玻璃和類似性質的東西，可能因依賴原產地而面臨風險。

The flip side is that as you continue to see start activity plummet, there is greater availability of labor. And so seeing what happens with the labor side and subcontractors being either able to squeeze out margins just to keep our people working would -- and/or just seeing less wage pressure from certain trades. So there's some balancing back to it. But right now, we feel like we've sensitized at least the first deal to make sure that we can move forward with it.

另一面是，隨著開工活動持續下降，勞動力的可用性也隨之增加。因此，看看勞動力方面和分包商的情況，他們要么能夠擠壓利潤空間以讓我們的員工繼續工作，要么看到某些行業的工資壓力減輕。因此需要進行一些平衡。但現在，我們覺得我們至少已經對第一筆交易有了敏感認識，以確保我們能夠繼續前進。

Got it. Got it. And then looking at the 8 projects in your future pipeline? How many are shovel-ready today? And maybe how many could be within the next couple of quarters?

知道了。知道了。然後看看您未來計劃中的 8 個項目？今天有多少人已經做好開工準備？未來幾季內可能會有多少個？

Just curious how soon perhaps you could flex that potential pipeline up here over the next couple of quarters or so?

只是好奇您能在接下來的幾個季度裡多快在這裡展示這個潛在的管道？

Yes. I'd say there's probably four to five projects right now that if you fast forward over the next 12 months, are either shovel-ready or could be shovel-ready. So some of them going through kind of the tailend of designs, and we continue to value engineer, see what else we can do to enhance yields. Let's say, four to five of those projects could be ready within the next 12 months if we needed to be.

是的。我想說，現在大概有四到五個項目，如果在接下來的 12 個月內快進，它們要么已經準備就緒，要么可以準備就緒。因此，其中一些正在經歷設計的尾聲，我們繼續進行價值工程，看看我們還能做些什麼來提高產量。我們可以假設，如果需要的話，其中四到五個項目可以在未來 12 個月內準備就緒。

And the yields would be about the same?

收益率大致相同嗎？

Yes, that'd be about the time in the high 5% to 6% is what we're targeting.

是的，我們的目標是達到 5% 到 6% 左右。

Mason Guell, Baird.

梅森·奎爾，貝爾德。

On the preferred equity book. Do you have any update on the Thousand Oaks investment (inaudible) this year? And then for Junction and Thousand Oaks and maybe other (inaudible) has there been any change in demands given the fires?

在優先股帳簿上。您對今年千橡市投資（聽不清楚）有什麼最新消息嗎？那麼對於 Junction 和 Thousand Oaks 以及其他地區（聽不清楚）由於火災，需求有沒有什麼變化？

Hi, Mason, I think we caught part of that. I think you were asking about Thousand Oaks and demand for that project. if that's not correct, obviously jump back on and if you could reiterate, but the Thousand Oaks project has continued to see very strong demand. Unfortunately (technical difficulty) the implications from the fires, and so we are seeing that.

你好，梅森，我想我們已經了解了部分情況。我想您問的是千橡市和該項目的需求。如果這不正確，顯然請重新開始，如果你可以重申，但千橡市計畫一直受到非常強勁的需求。不幸的是（技術難題）火災造成了影響，所以我們看到了這一點。

That project has gone from kind of low-90s leased and occupied a few weeks ago up into the mid-90s already and continues to see good momentum. And so that project is performing well in the face of what's an unfortunate circumstance.

該項目的租賃和入住率已從幾週前的 90 多美元上漲至 90 多美元，並且繼續保持良好的發展勢頭。因此，儘管情況不幸，但該項目仍然表現良好。

Can you give me an update on, like did something mature this year? Do you have any update on that?

能告訴我最新情況嗎，例如今年有什麼事情成熟了嗎？你對此有什麼最新消息嗎？

On which phase of the maturities?

到期日在哪個階段？

On Thousand Oaks.

位於千橡市。

On Thousand Oaks, yeah, it shows shorter years to maturity that equity partner is probably going to be looking at a short-term extension on the loan just as we continue to see momentum on the occupancy on that side. So we do think that probably transact this year. They've got good valuation, good equity in that deal. It should trade very well.

是的，在千橡市，它顯示出較短的到期年限，股權合夥人可能會考慮短期延長貸款，就像我們繼續看到那邊的入住率保持勢頭一樣。因此我們確實認為今年可能會有交易。他們在那筆交易中獲得了良好的估值和股權。它的交易應該會很好。

But I think they'll probably extend here short term just to continue to work through what's going on out there in LA.

但我認為他們可能會短期延長在這裡的停留時間，只是為了繼續解決洛杉磯的問題。

Thank you. I would now like to turn the floor back to Tom Toomey for closing remarks.

謝謝。現在我想請湯姆·圖米作最後發言。

Once again, thank all of you for your time, interest, and support of UDR. We look forward to seeing many of you at upcoming events. And with that, take care.

再次感謝大家對 UDR 的時間、關注和支持。我們期待在即將舉行的活動中見到你們。所以，要小心。

This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開您的線路。感謝您的參與。