United Community Banks Inc (UCBIO) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to United Community Banks Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. Hosting the call today are Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Lynn Harton; Chief Financial Officer, Jefferson Harralson; President and Chief Banking Officer, Rich Bradshaw; and Chief Risk Officer, Rob Edwards.

早上好，歡迎參加聯合社區銀行 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。今天主持電話會議的是董事長兼首席執行官林恩·哈頓 (Lynn Harton)；首席財務官杰斐遜·哈拉爾森；總裁兼首席銀行官 Rich Bradshaw；首席風險官 Rob Edwards。

United's presentation today includes references to operating earnings, pretax, pre-credit earnings and other non-GAAP financial information. For these non-GAAP financial measures, United has provided a reconciliation to the corresponding GAAP financial measure in the financial highlights section of the earnings release as well as at the end of the investor presentation. Both are included on the website at ucbi.com.

美聯航今天的演示文稿中提到了營業收益、稅前收益、貸前收益和其他非公認會計準則財務信息。對於這些非 GAAP 財務指標，美聯航已在收益發布的財務亮點部分以及投資者演示文稿的末尾提供了與相應 GAAP 財務指標的調節表。兩者均包含在 ucbi.com 網站上。

Copies of the second quarter's earnings release and investor presentation were filed last night on Form 8-K with the SEC, and replay of this call will be available in the Investor Relations section of the company's website at ucbi.com.

第二季度收益報告和投資者介紹的副本已於昨晚以 8-K 表格的形式向 SEC 提交，此次電話會議的重播將在該公司網站 ucbi.com 的投資者關係部分提供。

Please be aware that during this call, forward-looking statements maybe made by representatives of United. Any forward-looking statements should be considered in light of risks and uncertainties described on Pages 5 and 6 of the company's 2022 Form 10-K as well as other information provided by the company in its filings with the SEC and included on its website.

請注意，在此次電話會議中，美聯航代表可能會發表前瞻性聲明。任何前瞻性陳述均應根據公司 2022 年 10-K 表格第 5 頁和第 6 頁所述的風險和不確定性以及公司在向 SEC 提交的文件中提供並包含在其網站上的其他信息來考慮。

At this time, I will turn the call over to Lynn Harton.

此時，我會將電話轉給林恩·哈頓。

Well, good morning, and thank you all for joining our call today. Our operating earnings this quarter were $0.55 per share, down slightly from $0.58 per share last quarter. Our operating return on assets was 1% for the quarter, and our operating pretax pre-provision ROA was 165 basis points, down modestly from 171 basis points last quarter.

早上好，感謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。本季度我們的營業利潤為每股 0.55 美元，略低於上季度每股 0.58 美元。本季度我們的運營資產回報率為 1%，運營稅前撥備前 ROA 為 165 個基點，略低於上季度的 171 個基點。

As expected, the current level of interest rates and particularly the pace of rate increases is influencing our results. While we were pleased with our deposit growth for the quarter, we did see continued deposit mix changes as customers move from noninterest-bearing accounts into higher-yielding products. Our cost of deposits increased 164 basis points, up from 110 basis points last quarter.

正如預期的那樣，當前的利率水平，特別是加息的步伐正在影響我們的業績。雖然我們對本季度的存款增長感到滿意，但隨著客戶從無息賬戶轉向高收益產品，我們確實看到存款組合發生持續變化。我們的存款成本增加了 164 個基點，高於上季度的 110 個基點。

This was partially offset by a 21 basis point increase in our earning asset yields, leaving our net interest margin at 3.37% for the quarter. Our overall liquidity position continues to be strong with no short-term borrowings or Federal Home Loan Bank advances. Our loan-to-deposit ratio remained steady at 78%, providing ample liquidity to continue to serve our clients' borrowing needs.

這被我們的盈利資產收益率上升 21 個基點所部分抵消，使我們本季度的淨息差達到 3.37%。我們的整體流動性狀況仍然強勁，沒有短期借款或聯邦住房貸款銀行預付款。存貸比穩定在78%，流動性充足，可以繼續滿足客戶的借貸需求。

Loans grew at an annualized rate of 6.3% for the quarter, and we continue to be excited about the opportunities we are seeing to expand our lending team with new hiring opportunities. Our markets continue to perform well economically, with all of our states having both unemployment rates below the national average and ranking in the top 10 states nationally for in-migration.

本季度貸款年化增長率為 6.3%，我們繼續對看到的通過新招聘機會擴大貸款團隊的機會感到興奮。我們的市場在經濟上繼續表現良好，我們所有州的失業率均低於全國平均水平，並且在全國移民流入量方面名列前十。

Even with the strength of our markets, we are cautious about credit given the inverted yield curve and the Fed's focus on slowing the economy. Changes in our economic forecasting model caused us to build our allowance during the quarter, which now stands at 1.22% of loans. Over the past year, we've increased our allowance relative to loans by 16%.

儘管我們的市場強勁，但鑑於收益率曲線倒掛以及美聯儲對經濟放緩的關注，我們對信貸仍持謹慎態度。我們經濟預測模型的變化導致我們在本季度增加了準備金，目前為貸款的 1.22%。去年，我們將相對於貸款的準備金增加了 16%。

While we believe it's prudent to increase our reserve coverage, we are currently not seeing signs of widespread credit weakening. Past dues have been low, and our special mention in substandard loans have been essentially flat for several quarters. However, we are seeing those credits identified as substandard, become weaker as interest rates and inflationary costs are hurting their ability to recover and be upgraded.

雖然我們認為增加準備金覆蓋率是謹慎的做法，但目前我們沒有看到信貸普遍疲軟的跡象。逾期欠款一直很低，而且我們的次級貸款特別提及數幾個季度基本持平。然而，我們看到那些被認定為不合格的信貸變得越來越弱，因為利率和通脹成本正在損害它們的恢復和升級能力。

Our nonaccrual loans increased this quarter as one of our senior care relationships already identified as substandard, was placed in the nonaccrual. On the strategic front, the Progress Bank conversion went very well, and we're excited to be operating with that team under the United brand. They have great momentum and have been an outstanding addition to our franchise.

我們的非應計貸款本季度有所增加，因為我們已被確定為不合格的高級護理關係之一被置於非應計貸款中。在戰略方面，進步銀行的轉型進展順利，我們很高興能在聯合品牌下與該團隊合作。他們勢頭強勁，是我們球隊的傑出補充。

On July 1, we closed on First National Bank of South Miami, a deal we announced on February 13 of this year. Conversion is scheduled for October, and we look forward to having their fantastic team fully integrated with the company. Progress was the first partner to be converted using our new branding and new logo. We think it looks great and represents both our history and our future in a positive way.

7 月 1 日，我們完成了南邁阿密第一國家銀行的收購，這項交易是我們於今年 2 月 13 日宣布的。轉換計劃於 10 月進行，我們期待他們出色的團隊與公司完全整合。 Progress 是第一個使用我們的新品牌和新徽標進行轉換的合作夥伴。我們認為它看起來很棒，並且以積極的方式代表了我們的歷史和未來。

This month, we will also begin rebranding Seaside as United Community. When complete, we will be excited to have all of our banking franchise operating under one brand. And with that, I'll turn it to Jefferson for more detail on our performance.

本月，我們還將開始將 Seaside 重新命名為 United Community。完成後，我們將很高興能夠以一個品牌運營我們所有的銀行業務。接下來，我將向 Jefferson 詢問有關我們表現的更多詳細信息。

Thank you, Lynn, and good morning to everyone. I'm going to start my comments on Page 8 and go into some more details on deposits. As Lynn mentioned, we had deposit growth in the quarter, up $249 million. And excluding broker deposits and public funds, we grew deposits by $109 million or 2.3% annualized.

謝謝你，林恩，祝大家早上好。我將從第 8 頁開始發表評論，並討論有關存款的更多詳細信息。正如 Lynn 提到的，本季度我們的存款增長了 2.49 億美元。不包括經紀人存款和公共資金，我們的存款增長了 1.09 億美元，年增長率為 2.3%。

Year-to-date, our customer deposits are up $533 million or 5.1% annualized. We did see increased price competition in the second quarter that drove our cost of deposits up 54 basis points to 1.64% and took our cumulative total deposit beta to 32% since the fourth quarter of 2021.

今年迄今為止，我們的客戶存款增加了 5.33 億美元，年化增長率為 5.1%。我們確實看到第二季度價格競爭加劇，導致我們的存款成本上升 54 個基點至 1.64%，並使我們自 2021 年第四季度以來的累計總存款貝塔值達到 32%。

We also saw continued deposit mix change in the second quarter as our customers are reasonably moving some liquid dollars into CDs and higher-yielding money market accounts, This quarter, our DDA as a percentage of deposits moved to 31% from 34%. And conversely, the percentage of CDs moved to 17% of deposits from 14%.

我們還看到第二季度存款組合的持續變化，因為我們的客戶將一些流動性美元合理地轉移到 CD 和收益較高的貨幣市場賬戶中。本季度，我們的 DDA 在存款中所佔的百分比從 34% 升至 31%。相反，存款證佔存款的比例從 14% 上升至 17%。

On another note, we have a very granular deposit base as represented by the graph on the lower right.

另一方面，我們有一個非常細化的存款基礎，如右下圖所示。

We turn to our loan portfolio on Page 10. We grew loans in the second quarter by $270 million, which is 6.3% annualized and similar to the dollars at which we grew deposits this quarter. On Page 10, we also layout that our loan portfolio is very diversified and generally less commercial real estate heavy as compared to peers.

我們轉向第 10 頁的貸款組合。第二季度我們的貸款增長了 2.7 億美元，年化增長率為 6.3%，與本季度存款增長的水平相似。在第 10 頁，我們還指出，我們的貸款組合非常多元化，與同行相比，商業房地產的比重通常較小。

Finally, on Page 10, you can also see our manufactured housing slice of the pie at 2%. You will recall that this business came with the Reliance transaction in early 2022. After the deal, we had said we would take some time to evaluate the business. And after some time of looking at it, we have decided that it doesn't fit into our model, and we have stopped originating new loans, and we will wind down the business. We will continue servicing the existing book, while it runs off over time.

最後，在第 10 頁，您還可以看到我們製造的住房份額為 2%。您可能還記得，這項業務是在 2022 年初隨著 Reliance 交易而來的。交易完成後，我們曾表示將花一些時間來評估這項業務。經過一段時間的研究，我們認為它不適合我們的模式，我們已經停止發放新貸款，我們將結束這項業務。我們將繼續為現有的書籍提供服務，但它會隨著時間的推移而耗盡。

Turning to Page 11, where we will highlight some of the strength of our balance sheet. First, with similar dollars in loans and deposit growth, our loan-to-deposit ratio was flat at 78% in the quarter. On the bottom of our charts of two of our capital ratios, our TCE and our CET1 ratios, they were flat this quarter and remain about 100 basis points higher than peers.

轉向第 11 頁，我們將重點介紹我們資產負債表的一些優勢。首先，在貸款和存款增長相似的情況下，本季度我們的貸存比持平於 78%。在我們的兩個資本比率（TCE 和 CET1 比率）圖表底部，它們本季度持平，但仍然比同行高約 100 個基點。

On Page 12, we take a deeper look at capital, and we show a tangible book value waterfall chart. Our regulatory ratios remain above peers and generally increased slightly as compared to last quarter. Moving on to the margin on Page 13. The margin increased 18 basis points year-over-year, but fell 24 basis points from last quarter. Our loan yield increased 17 basis points in the higher rate environment as new loans are being put on in the high 7s, but our cost of total deposits was up 54 basis points to 1.64%.

在第 12 頁，我們更深入地研究了資本，並展示了有形的賬面價值瀑布圖。我們的監管比率仍然高於同行，並且與上季度相比總體略有上升。接下來是第 13 頁的利潤率。利潤率同比增長 18 個基點，但較上季度下降 24 個基點。在較高利率的環境下，我們的貸款收益率上升了 17 個基點，因為新發放的貸款高達 7%，但我們的總存款成本上升了 54 個基點，達到 1.64%。

The main driver of the cost of total deposits increased was a tougher competitive environment in the form of higher deposit rates. 18 basis points of the margin decrease came from the impact of us moving rates higher. In addition to the higher rates, we had a continuation of mix change away from DDA to higher cost money market and CDs this quarter that contributed another 5 basis points of higher deposit costs, which is similar to the run rate of last quarter.

總存款成本增加的主要驅動因素是存款利率上升導致的競爭環境更加嚴峻。利潤率下降 18 個基點是由於美國加息的影響。除了利率上升之外，本季度我們還繼續進行從 DDA 到成本更高的貨幣市場和 CD 的組合變化，這又導致存款成本增加了 5 個基點，這與上季度的運行率相似。

So we have the benefits of loan yields moving higher and a positive mix change on the asset side that was more than offset by higher deposit costs and a negative mix change in deposits. On Page 15, our fee income was up $6.2 million compared to last quarter. The increase was driven by higher service charges, an increase in mortgage income and greater gains from SBA and Navitas loan sales.

因此，我們受益於貸款收益率上升和資產方面的積極組合變化，而這些好處被較高的存款成本和存款的消極組合變化所抵消。在第 15 頁，我們的費用收入比上季度增加了 620 萬美元。這一增長是由服務費上漲、抵押貸款收入增加以及 SBA 和 Navitas 貸款銷售收益增加推動的。

We did have two notable nonrecurring items, including a $1.6 million gain from the sale of a small commercial insurance and corporate benefits business, and we also had a $1.4 million MSR gain this quarter. Expenses on Page 15 came in at $128.8 million, down $2.4 million from last quarter. The main drivers of the improvement are listed on the page.

我們確實有兩個值得注意的非經常性項目，包括出售小型商業保險和企業福利業務帶來的 160 萬美元收益，本季度我們還獲得了 140 萬美元的 MSR 收益。第 15 頁的支出為 1.288 億美元，比上季度減少 240 萬美元。頁面上列出了改進的主要驅動因素。

Moving to Page 16 and on the topic of credit, we set aside $22.8 million to cover $8.4 million in net charge offs and built the allowance for credit losses to 1.22% of loans. The main driver of the increase was a decrease in the forecast for the CRE price index, which drove a $7 million increase in the provision.

轉到第 16 頁，關於信貸主題，我們撥出 2280 萬美元來支付 840 萬美元的淨沖銷，並將信貸損失準備金提高到貸款的 1.22%。增加的主要驅動因素是 CRE 價格指數預測的下降，導致撥備增加了 700 萬美元。

NPAs increased to 60 basis points in the quarter mainly due to the movement of a single senior care loan into nonaccrual. For the quarter, Navitas had just $2.5 million in net charge-offs or 69 basis points. That said, we expect Navitas losses to be higher than typical in the third quarter and then to moderate in the fourth and end up in the 90 to 95 basis point range for the full year. With that, I'll pass it back to Lynn.

本季度不良資產增加​​至 60 個基點，主要是由於單筆高級護理貸款轉為非應計貸款。本季度，Navitas 的淨沖銷額僅為 250 萬美元，即 69 個基點。也就是說，我們預計納維第三季度的虧損將高於典型水平，然後第四季度將有所放緩，全年最終將在 90 至 95 個基點範圍內。這樣，我會把它傳回給林恩。

Thank you, Jefferson. And many thanks to the United team for your tremendous focus and drive to perform and your heart for our customers. And now I'd like to open the floor for questions.

謝謝你，杰斐遜。非常感謝美聯航團隊的巨大關注和執行力以及對我們客戶的關心。現在我想請大家提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Catherine Mealor of KBW.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 KBW 的 Catherine Mealor。

I thought I'd just start with the margin. Jefferson, could you just walk us through your thoughts on your outlook for the margin over the back half of the year? Do you see some stabilization? Or do you think we'll still see some further compression after this quarter's decline?

我想我應該從保證金開始。杰斐遜，您能否向我們介紹一下您對下半年利潤前景的看法？您看到一些穩定了嗎？或者您認為在本季度下滑之後我們仍會看到進一步的壓縮嗎？

Catherine, I think we're at or near a bottom with the margin modeling down 5 for my model for the third quarter, and I think you see increases from there. Some of the main drivers there are the mix change. We're seeing a little less mix change through June and into July. So hard to predict, but it feels like it's stabilizing. The exception pricing has been out there for us. It's, again, something that's hard to model. But again, we're getting less request there. So that feels a little better as well. We've got some tailwind with First Miami -- First National Bank of South Miami closing to get the rate hike that helps a little bit, too. Although we're pretty neutral now that I mentioned earlier that the new own yields are coming in the high 7s and we get mix change on the asset side as well. So I think we're at or near bottom and increasing from there.

凱瑟琳，我認為我們已經達到或接近底部，第三季度我的模型的利潤率模型下降了 5，並且我認為您會看到從那裡開始的增長。一些主要驅動因素是混合變化。從六月到七月，我們看到混合變化有所減少。很難預測，但感覺正在穩定下來。我們已經為我們提供了例外定價。這又是一個很難建模的事情。但同樣，我們收到的請求也越來越少。所以感覺也好一點。我們得到了一些順風車，第一邁阿密——南邁阿密第一國家銀行關閉，加息也有一點幫助。儘管我們現在相當中立，因為我之前提到過，新的自有收益率將達到 7 的高位，而且我們在資產方面也發生了組合變化。所以我認為我們已經處於或接近底部，並且正在從那裡開始增長。

Okay. Great. And then on credit, can you just talk a little bit about the senior care book? It's only 2% of loans. It's not a big book, but I know it's been a book that we've talked a lot about over the past couple of years.

好的。偉大的。然後順便問一下，您能簡單談談老年護理書嗎？這只是貸款的2%。這不是一本大書，但我知道這是一本我們在過去幾年裡討論過很多的書。

Any other credits in the net book that are showing signs of deterioration like the one we saw this quarter and maybe just your outlook maybe in terms of just overall kind of credit trends that you're seeing within that book and then the broader CRE book as well?

網上賬本中的任何其他信用都顯示出惡化的跡象，就像我們本季度看到的那樣，也許只是您的前景，也許只是您在那本書中看到的總體信用趨勢，然後是更廣泛的 CRE 賬本：出色地？

Thanks, Catherine. So on the senior care book, it's interesting. The credit that did move into nonaccrual that was mentioned or the relationship had been in substandard accruing for some period of time. And so if you look at, that $106 million that's showing as substandard on the slide, that's basically $32 million now nonaccrual. We moved one into nonaccrual in Q1. And then the second relationship in Q2. And so there's three facilities in nonaccrual now, totaling that $32 million. We're not seeing a lot of inflow into the substandard category. So we've been at -- if you look at the whole criticized and classified bucket. If you go back 2 years on that chart, you're at $240 million 2 years ago. We're down to $200 million or $214 million now. So feel like there's not been a ton of change. There's half a dozen relationships that we're wrestling with in the substandard and nonaccrual space. And I think that's likely to happen.

謝謝，凱瑟琳。所以關於老年護理的書，很有趣。所提到的確實轉為非應計的信貸或關係在一段時間內一直處於不標準應計狀態。因此，如果你看一下幻燈片上顯示為不合格的 1.06 億美元，那麼現在基本上是非應計的 3200 萬美元。我們在第一季度將其中一項轉為非應計利息。然後是 Q2 中的第二個關係。現在有三筆非應計貸款，總計 3200 萬美元。我們沒有看到大量資金流入不合格類別。所以，如果你看看整個受到批評和分類的部分，我們一直在關注。如果你回到 2 年前，你會發現 2 年前你的收入是 2.4 億美元。現在我們的資金減少到了 2 億或 2.14 億美元。所以感覺並沒有太大的變化。在不合標準和非權責發生製領域，我們正在處理六種關係。我認為這很可能會發生。

If you have $100 million of substandard accruing, some of those are going to fall over into nonaccrual and we'll work through those. So we feel like we have the portfolio properly identified and we see some improvement. We've had an upgrade and a payoff and you see some that haven't turned the corner. And that's kind of just where we are in that process. And if you're asking just about the industry, I think a lot of it just depends on what else is coming online in the market. We have one property that we're kind of -- is a substandard property, but somebody has decided to build a hospital across the street. So we think that's fairly, sometimes you get lucky. And so -- but generally, we're seeing some properties show improvement and gain traction and some are slower to gain traction. So that's senior care, and that's really the driver in our CRE portfolio.

如果您有 1 億美元的不合格應計費用，其中一些將轉為非應計費用，我們將解決這些問題。因此，我們覺得我們已經正確確定了投資組合，並且看到了一些改進。我們已經進行了升級並得到了回報，但您會看到一些還沒有好轉的情況。這就是我們在這個過程中所處的位置。如果你只問這個行業，我認為很大程度上取決於市場上還有哪些在線產品。我們有一處房產——是一處不合格的房產，但有人決定在街對面建一所醫院。所以我們認為這是公平的，有時你很幸運。所以，但總的來說，我們看到一些房產表現出改善並獲得吸引力，而另一些房產獲得吸引力的速度較慢。這就是老年護理，這確實是我們商業地產投資組合的驅動力。

So your second question around CRE, in general, is that we're seeing really favorable and consistent performance across the portfolio right now other than the senior care space.

因此，總的來說，您關於商業地產的第二個問題是，我們現在看到除高級護理領域之外的整個投資組合的表現非常良好且一致。

Great. So that increase in the reserve, would you say that's directly tied to this portfolio or just kind of general CECL qualitative kind of factors?

偉大的。那麼，儲備金的增加，您認為這與該投資組合直接相關，還是只是與一般 CECL 定性因素相關？

Well, it's -- yes, so the -- as it relates to CECL, the drivers are charge-offs, loan growth and economic forecast. And really the drivers in the economic forecast for the quarter were the CRE price index and then not to the same degree, but to a lesser degree, a decline forecasted decline in business investment. And so the dramatic change was what Jefferson mentioned, the CRE price index. But to a lesser degree, the business investment expected forecast also drove some of the allowance up in some of the C&I and equipment finance categories.

嗯，是的，所以，就 CECL 而言，驅動因素是沖銷、貸款增長和經濟預測。事實上，本季度經濟預測的驅動因素是 CRE 價格指數，其下降程度不同，但程度較輕，其下降預示著商業投資的下降。因此，戲劇性的變化就是杰斐遜提到的 CRE 價格指數。但在較小程度上，商業投資預期預測也推動了一些工商業和設備融資類別的部分補貼增加。

Our next question comes from Stephen Scouten of Piper Sandler Companies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 公司的 Stephen Scouten。

I guess, if I could maybe dig back into the margin guidance a little bit more, Jefferson, I know you said maybe 5 basis points down next quarter. But could you give kind of updated thoughts on where you think that cumulative deposit beta might go for the full cycle and kind of how you're thinking about the floor on noninterest-bearing deposits as a percentage?

我想，杰斐遜，如果我可以再深入探討一下利潤率指引，我知道您說下個季度可能會下降 5 個基點。但是，您能否就您認為整個週期的累積存款貝塔值可能走向何處以及您如何看待無息存款下限的百分比給出一些最新的想法？

Great questions. On the total deposit beta mentioned. I think that can move into the kind of 36% to 38% range is what we're thinking about. The -- that's what we're currently modeling. Now what's going on is that the you get the continuation of the asset beta too, that I think will offset that. So you have both continuing to increase the rest of this year and into next year. The DDA percentage is -- I think we are modeling for that to continue to move down. I think it could be down another 100 basis points, maybe 200 basis points. I know that kind of 10 years ago, we were much lower in the DDA percentage. But I think our bank has much changed since then, with a lot more C&I mix in there since then.

很好的問題。關於總存款貝塔提到的。我認為我們正在考慮可以進入 36% 到 38% 的範圍。這就是我們目前正在建模的。現在發生的事情是，你也得到了資產貝塔的延續，我認為這將抵消這一點。因此，你們都將在今年剩餘時間和明年繼續增加產量。 DDA 百分比是——我認為我們正在對其進行建模，以使其繼續下降。我認為可能會再下跌 100 個基點，也許 200 個基點。我知道 10 年前，我們的 DDA 百分比要低得多。但我認為從那時起我們的銀行已經發生了很大變化，從那時起，那裡有了更多的工商業混合。

So I don't think we're going back to where we were like way back historically. So I think you're getting close. I really think that once you see rates stop moving higher, that's when you're going to see that DDA percentage start to stabilize. I feel like we've already seen it start to stabilize. So I think it's moving down. We're modeling it to move down, but I don't think it's going back to 2015 levels or 2012 levels.

所以我認為我們不會回到歷史上的狀態。所以我認為你已經很接近了。我真的認為，一旦您看到利率停止走高，您就會看到 DDA 百分比開始穩定。我覺得我們已經看到它開始穩定下來。所以我認為它正在下降。我們正在對其進行建模，使其下降，但我認為它不會回到 2015 年或 2012 年的水平。

Yes, that makes a lot of sense, Jefferson. Appreciate that. And then just kind of conversely on the asset side, is the repricing of fixed rate loans? Is that kind of the dynamic that makes you think the NIM could bottom here in the third quarter? And do you have any sort of numbers for how much of that book will reprice maybe fourth quarter or in '24 or what have you?

是的，這很有道理，杰斐遜。感謝。那麼，在資產方面，固定利率貸款是否會重新定價？這種動態是否讓您認為淨息差可能會在第三季度觸底？您是否有任何關於該書將在第四季度或 24 年重新定價的數字？

I might have to get offline with that, but I do have that, but it's coming off at like 4.5% and coming on around 7%. But I have to look at how much is actually coming off. And so -- but that is a driver of it. And in addition, we're trying to push a little more towards putting on variable now. So the mix of variable and fix is coming on the high 7s now. Navitas is coming on just in the low 10s now. So I was thinking about it more in combination, but we can certainly look at the fix by itself. I know it's coming off at 4.50% and going on close to 7%.

我可能不得不下線，但我確實有，但它的下降速度約為 4.5%，大約為 7%。但我必須看看實際減少了多少。所以——但這就是它的驅動因素。此外，我們現在正在努力推動更多的變量。因此，可變和固定的組合現在正在達到最高的 7 分。 Navitas 目前的排名僅在 10 左右。所以我更多地結合考慮它，但我們當然可以單獨考慮修復。我知道利率將下降 4.50%，並繼續接近 7%。

Okay. That's great. And maybe just last thing for me. You guys hold a little bit more capital than peers on the average. It sounds like continued hiring is probably in the plans, but can you give me some thoughts on just capital priorities as you look out maybe over the next year or 2 kind of longer term?

好的。那太棒了。也許對我來說只是最後一件事。你們平均比同齡人擁有更多的資本。聽起來計劃中可能會繼續招聘，但是當您展望未來一年或兩年的較長時期時，您能否給我一些關於資本優先事項的想法？

Yes. So organic growth will be #1. It always has been. Dividends will be #2 and a distant third is buybacks. M&A would be kind of akin with the organic growth there. So we like having more capital. We think that serves us in times like now. We are buying back put a modest amount of preferred. We like the opportunity with our preferred being less than $25. And we bought back less than $300,000 this quarter, but we're continuing to buy back a little preferred just because it's trading below that $25 level and you get a small gain on the TCE. The other part on the growth on the -- you mentioned hiring. Should we go there with Rich and talk about hiring and how we're thinking about that?

是的。因此，有機增長將是第一。一直如此。股息將位居第二，而排在第三位的是回購。併購有點類似於那裡的有機增長。所以我們喜歡擁有更多的資本。我們認為這在像現在這樣的時期對我們很有幫助。我們正在回購少量優先股。我們喜歡這個機會，我們的首選價格低於 25 美元。本季度我們回購了不到 300,000 美元，但我們將繼續回購一些優先股，因為它的交易價格低於 25 美元的水平，並且您在 TCE 上獲得了小幅收益。關於增長的另一部分——您提到了招聘。我們應該和里奇一起去那裡討論招聘問題以及我們如何考慮這個問題嗎？

Sure. This is Rich. And it's important to note that we did our -- another lift out here in East Tennessee that was a leader in 6 commercial people. And since the last earnings call, we have brought on Kelley Kee as our State President in Tennessee. We're very excited about that. He had 25 years at a super regional in Nashville. And between the lift-out in East Tennessee and other hiring, we have gotten 14 yeses on the commercial side and 11 have started. So we're very excited in addition to our two lift-outs in the first quarter. So we're very selective on this. I don't have anything actively going at the moment going forward. I think we want to get this real right, but we're very excited and extremely excited about the opportunity in Tennessee.

當然。這是里奇。值得注意的是，我們在田納西州東部進行了另一次電梯，由 6 名商業人員組成。自上次財報電話會議以來，我們聘請凱莉·紀 (Kelley Kee) 擔任田納西州總統。我們對此感到非常興奮。他在納什維爾的一家超級地區工作了 25 年。在東田納西州的搬遷和其他招聘之間，我們在商業方面已獲得 14 份同意，其中 11 份已經開始。因此，除了第一季度的兩次淘汰之外，我們也非常興奮。所以我們對此非常有選擇性。我目前沒有任何積極的進展。我認為我們希望真正做到這一點，但我們對田納西州的機會感到非常興奮。

Our next question comes from Brandon King of Truist.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist 的布蘭登·金 (Brandon King)。

So I wanted to talk about Navitas and appreciate the guidance. It seems like losses were lower this quarter in respect to that -- expecting that to trend higher next quarter remain moderate in the fourth quarter, but could you give some context as to the cadence of the losses for this year? And kind of what gives you confidence that losses will moderate towards the end of the year?

所以我想談談納維並感謝指導。與此相比，本季度的損失似乎較低——預計下個季度的損失將在第四季度保持溫和，但您能否提供一些有關今年損失節奏的背景信息？是什麼讓您相信虧損將在年底前有所緩解？

So Brandon, this is Rob. Just as it relates to Navitas, if you go back, we purchased Navitas in 2018. And we sort of anticipated at that time a 1% loss rate. Following that, two things happened, one is, I think they improved sort of moved upscale and their customer selection. And of course, we had some economic favorability. We continue to believe that the customer selection that they experienced over the last really 4.5 years has improved, but they've experienced in just one small segment of their transportation portfolio over the last 18 months. When they look back in time, they've identified about a $35 million book of long-haul tractor trailer loans that -- where the values have come down and the revenues have also come down on those businesses. Shipping costs have come down. And so they've identified a pool that they're going to have higher-than-normal stress in -- during the year -- during the second half of the year. And so that's really what's driving that. It's a small portfolio that they've contained, but it will drive losses up and really the size of it being small is really why we anticipated waning back in the latter half of the year.

布蘭登，這是羅布。正如與 Navitas 的關係一樣，如果你回顧一下，我們在 2018 年收購了 Navitas。當時我們預計損失率為 1%。接下來發生了兩件事，一是，我認為他們改進了高檔化和客戶選擇。當然，我們也有一些經濟優勢。我們仍然相信，他們在過去 4.5 年裡經歷的客戶選擇有所改善，但在過去 18 個月裡，他們只經歷了運輸產品組合的一小部分。當他們回顧過去時，他們發現了大約 3500 萬美元的長途拖拉機拖車貸款賬簿，這些貸款的價值下降了，這些業務的收入也下降了。運輸成本已經下降。因此，他們已經確定了一個池子，在今年下半年，他們將面臨高於正常壓力的池子。這才是真正的推動力。他們所包含的投資組合規模很小，但它會導致損失增加，而規模較小正是我們預計下半年損失會減少的原因。

So I'll just add in that. We like that 90 to 95 basis point range for the year, but it's just going to be higher in the third quarter and lower in the fourth.

所以我就補充一下。我們喜歡今年 90 到 95 個基點的範圍，但第三季度會更高，第四季度會更低。

Okay, okay. So it's just coming from the smaller subsidiary loans, just kind of a normalized rate going into next year?

好吧好吧。那麼它只是來自較小的附屬貸款，只是明年的正常化利率？

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

Okay. And then on expenses, Jefferson, what are your kind of expectations for the run rate with First Miami coming online in third quarter in the back half of the year?

好的。然後在費用方面，杰弗遜，您對今年下半年第三季度上線的第一邁阿密的運行率有何期望？

Right. Great question. And on the run rate of expenses, so the expenses you saw this quarter are a pretty good run rate for us. I know they were down. We were pleased to be able to offset the natural merit increases that we had this quarter. So I think this number plus First Miami with a small growth rate on it. We've been thinking a lot about expenses and where you have expenses or in the branch network and 60% of our expenses are on people. I mean, over the last 3 years, we've closed 16 branches -- we're about to close. We have 5 that are set to close at the end of July. We're going to be reviewing that. We have a management today get together coming up here where I think we'll talk about these types of things and look at branches again. 60% of the expenses, as I mentioned, are in people when we think about productivity quite a bit.

正確的。很好的問題。至於費用的運行率，因此您在本季度看到的費用對我們來說是一個相當不錯的運行率。我知道他們很沮喪。我們很高興能夠抵消本季度的自然績效增長。所以我認為這個數字加上第一邁阿密有一個小增長率。我們一直在考慮很多費用問題，以及在哪里或在分支機構網絡中需要費用，而我們 60% 的費用都花在了人員身上。我的意思是，在過去 3 年裡，我們已經關閉了 16 家分行——我們即將關閉。我們有 5 個計劃於 7 月底關閉。我們將對此進行審查。今天我們有一個管理層聚集在這裡，我想我們會討論這些類型的事情並再次審視分支機構。正如我提到的，當我們充分考慮生產力時，60% 的費用都花在了人身上。

What we have happening now, and it's a little bit despite of what Rich has mentioned, is a hiring what we call a chill. It's not a hiring freeze because we're always going to hire great people or great producers, but we're being a lot more selective there than elsewhere in the bank, but really trying to successfully complete -- or successfully enact this hiring chills. You'll see less new hires coming through. On the mortgage side, we've had multiple cuts there as their volumes have come down with higher rates. So those are the types of things we're thinking about expenses, but I think kind of flattish with a small growth rate is how we're thinking about it. and then others can jump in there if they like.

儘管里奇提到過，我們現在所發生的事情是招聘我們所說的“寒意”。這不是招聘凍結，因為我們總是會聘請優秀的人才或優秀的製作人，但我們在那裡比銀行其他地方更有選擇性，但真正試圖成功完成或成功實施這種招聘寒潮。你會發現新員工越來越少。在抵押貸款方面，我們進行了多次削減，因為它們的數量隨著利率的上升而下降。這些就是我們正在考慮的支出類型，但我認為我們正在考慮的方式是保持平穩且增長率較小。然後其他人如果願意的話可以跳進去。

I'll mention one more thing there is that our efficiency as our margin has come down, our efficiency ratio has gone higher. So our plans to move this down is going to be some of the growth, some of the hires that Rich talked about, being able to grow loans in this mid-single-digit range, keep expenses as flat as we can and improve the efficiency ratio like that.

我還要提一件事，那就是我們的效率隨著利潤率的下降而提高，我們的效率比也提高了。因此，我們計劃降低這一數字，將是一些增長，一些里奇談到的招聘，能夠在這個中個位數範圍內增加貸款，盡可能保持支出平穩，並提高效率這樣的比例。

Got it, got it. And then last one for me. Jefferson, do you happen to have the NIM in the month of June?

明白了，明白了。然後是我的最後一張。 Jefferson，你六月有 NIM 嗎？

So I don't have that. We get -- I have it, but there's so many of these nonrecurring things that you annualize times 12, and it just doesn't make a lot of sense. But I mean, I do think we're -- if you put a run rate -- if I try to put a run rate on the June margin, it'd be very close to where we are now. I think our margin is bottomed out, pretty close. It's really hard to take some of these things that are going in and out multiply times 12 and get a real feel for what that is.

所以我沒有那個。我們得到了——我得到了，但是有很多非經常性的事情，你需要將其年化12倍，這沒有多大意義。但我的意思是，我確實認為我們 - 如果你計算運行率 - 如果我嘗試在 6 月份的利潤率上計算運行率，它會非常接近我們現在的水平。我認為我們的利潤率已經觸底，非常接近。對於這些進出 12 倍的東西，要真正感受到它是什麼，真的很難。

Our next question comes from Michael Rose of Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自雷蒙德·詹姆斯的邁克爾·羅斯。

Jefferson maybe just to go back to the margin briefly. I know First Miami just closed. Can you give us a sense for what the total amount of accretable yield is now with First Miami? And then what you would expect the accretion to kind of run out over the next couple of quarters just on a scheduled basis?

杰斐遜也許只是簡單地回到邊緣。我知道第一邁阿密剛剛關閉。您能否讓我們了解一下第一邁阿密現在的可增加收益總額是多少？那麼，您預計在接下來的幾個季度中，按計劃增加的增量會耗盡多少？

That's a great question because we're going to do final marks now. So the numbers I'm giving you could change as we do the final mark. So without First Miami, we have $40 million of accretion to go through. Our initial expectation of the marks were that First Miami was going to add another $40 million on top of that. So we had $4 million of accretion come through before First Miami, currently modeling for the third quarter that, that $6 million, although, again, that's -- we don't have the final mark. So it's really -- it's tough, but the rates haven't changed that much since we announced First Miami. So maybe that $40 million mark stays in there. But what I'm using for my forecast right now is that $40 million, but it is subject to change as we get to the final mark. So for now, I'm using that we're at $80 million currently, most likely, but then we'll get the final mark here probably in a month or two before (inaudible).

這是一個很好的問題，因為我們現在要做期末評分。因此，當我們進行最終評分時，我給您的數字可能會發生變化。因此，如果沒有第一邁阿密，我們將需要增加 4000 萬美元。我們最初的預期是第一邁阿密將在此基礎上再增加 4000 萬美元。因此，在第一邁阿密之前，我們已經增加了 400 萬美元，目前正在為第三季度建模，即 600 萬美元，儘管我們還沒有最終的分數。所以這真的很艱難，但自從我們宣布“第一邁阿密”以來，費率沒有太大變化。所以也許 4000 萬美元的大關會保留在那裡。但我現在的預測是 4000 萬美元，但當我們達到最終目標時，它可能會發生變化。所以現在，我認為我們目前的資金很可能是 8000 萬美元，但我們可能會在一兩個月前得到最終分數（聽不清）。

That's very helpful. And I think you said that the margin was kind of nearing a trough. I think you stood down about 5 basis points or so was your expectation for the third quarter. I assume that's on a core basis, correct, without the impact of accretable yield? Or is it all in just want to clarify?

這非常有幫助。我想你說過利潤率已經接近谷底了。我認為您對第三季度的預期下調了大約 5 個基點左右。我認為這是在核心基礎上，正確的，沒有增加產量的影響？還是這一切只是想澄清？

They're very close because the addition I'm using for the third quarter is $2 million. So those numbers are very close. But I was thinking about it with, but the difference isn't super huge at $2 million of increase I'm expecting for the third quarter.

它們非常接近，因為我在第三季度使用的附加資金是 200 萬美元。所以這些數字非常接近。但我正在考慮這一點，但差異並不是很大，我預計第三季度將增加 200 萬美元。

Okay. Perfect. I appreciate it. Maybe just switching gears a little bit. So you guys have been very kind of active with M&A over the years. I know your target size is kind of $1 billion to $3 billion is kind of what you kind of targeted. You guys have pretty good currency. There's a lot of chatter about M&A out there. Obviously, many people can't do it loan marks, Credit/interest rate marks are prohibitive. But just wanted to get a sense for are you guys still open for business as it relates to M&A? And are you actively engaged with anybody at this point?

好的。完美的。我很感激。也許只是稍微切換一下。所以多年來你們在併購方面一直非常活躍。我知道你的目標規模是 10 億到 30 億美元，這就是你的目標。你們的貨幣相當不錯。關於併購的討論有很多。顯然，很多人做不到貸款標記，信用/利率標記令人望而卻步。但只是想了解一下，你們是否還在開展與併購相關的業務？此時您是否積極與任何人接觸？

Michael, this is Lynn. So I would say we continue to be actively engaged in terms of talking to people, building relationships. I feel like we are in the selection set of those people considering selling. So from that perspective, we're active in terms of actual transactions. My expectation is not much happens over the next several quarters really for the reason you mentioned. The math is difficult, marks prices are not what some sellers are expecting. So I don't know. I do hear chatter about deals getting announced, but I would personally think that we don't see that pick up until maybe the middle part of next year or something like that.

邁克爾，這是林恩。所以我想說，我們將繼續積極參與與人們交談、建立關係。我覺得我們屬於那些考慮出售的人的選擇範圍內。所以從這個角度來看，我們在實際交易方面是活躍的。由於你提到的原因，我的預期是在接下來的幾個季度不會發生太多事情。數學很困難，標誌著價格不是一些賣家的預期。所以我不知道。我確實聽到有關宣布交易的傳言，但我個人認為，我們可能要到明年中期或類似的時間才能看到這種情況的回升。

Okay. So maybe an M&A chill just like a hiring chill as opposed to (inaudible).

好的。因此，也許併購寒潮就像招聘寒潮一樣，而不是（聽不清）。

Yes, that's right knowing our technology team, this is the opportunity to drive some of those projects a little quicker than we've been doing, which we're kind of excited about. We've got a lot of great things on the path for that.

是的，我們的技術團隊是這樣認為的，這是一個比我們之前更快地推動其中一些項目的機會，我們對此感到很興奮。為此，我們已經做了很多偉大的事情。

Perfect. Maybe just finally for me. I know it's hard to predict, but the Navitas SBA gains were up a little bit. Just can you kind of describe the environment and what we might be able to expect in terms of loan sales here in the next couple of quarters?

完美的。也許最後對我來說。我知道這很難預測，但 Navitas SBA 的收益略有上升。您能否描述一下環境以及我們對未來幾個季度貸款銷售的預期？

So I'll pass to Rich on the SBA gains, and we'll talk about that. I'll follow up on the Navitas one.

因此，我將向 Rich 介紹 SBA 的收益，我們將討論這個問題。我會跟進 Navitas 的情況。

Sure. The SBA, it's timely because we sold SBA loans yesterday. And the -- I would say the market was a little bit up. So I feel good about that. It's kind of a countercyclical product and one of the things I wanted to mention in this call today is looking at that. First of all, we're fully staffed in that, which is rare because there's always a lot of demand for that product and people. But we are anticipating that, that product will be up for us about 25% this year. So it's been really good for us, and we're excited about that.

當然。 SBA，這是及時的，因為我們昨天出售了 SBA 貸款。我想說市場有點上漲。所以我對此感覺很好。這是一種反週期產品，我今天在電話會議中想提到的一件事就是關注這一點。首先，我們在這方面配備了充足的人員，這很罕見，因為對該產品和人員的需求總是很大。但我們預計，今年該產品的售價將上漲 25% 左右。所以這對我們來說真的很好，我們對此感到很興奮。

And I'll add in the third quarter is usually a little bit seasonally stronger than second for SBA gain. So I don't know, flat to higher maybe on the SBA side.

我要補充的是，第三季度的 SBA 收益通常比第二季度的季節性更強一些。所以我不知道，SBA 方面可能會持平或更高。

I don't know, I think it would be up because our inventory will be up to with regards to the 25% greater production.

我不知道，我認為它會增加，因為我們的庫存將達到增加 25% 的產量。

And the market for Navitas loan seem stable. So I would expect that to be relatively flat. So the category together, I would expect to be slightly higher in third and fourth quarter, just following seasonality and the volumes that we're seeing.

納維貸款市場似乎穩定。所以我預計這將相對平穩。因此，我預計第三季度和第四季度的類別會略高，緊隨季節性和我們所看到的數量。

Our next question comes from Kevin Fitzsimmons of D.A. Davidson.

我們的下一個問題來自 D.A. 的凱文·菲茨西蒙斯 (Kevin Fitzsimmons)。戴維森。

Maybe just start out on your comments about manufactured housing. I'm just curious whether that -- is the line of thinking is it something that you see out there in the environment or in terms of the economy or if the economy was perfect like now would just not be a fit? Or is it a combination of (inaudible).

也許只是從您對活動房屋的評論開始。我只是好奇這是否是一種思維方式，你在環境或經濟方面看到了什麼，或者如果經濟像現在這樣完美，那就不適合？或者是（聽不清）的組合。

Kevin, let me -- I'll start with that and then Jefferson and Rich can jump in. I would say, first, any of these businesses, we start with the -- can it be meaningful for us and really be something of size enough that we want to that makes a difference? And as we looked at that business, we like the team. They know what they're doing. They're very competitive. It's subprime. It's consumer-based, which adds to the regulatory risk overtime and is out of our market. So it really wasn't any one thing, but as we said, look, we want to take this from -- do we want to take this from $300 million to $1 billion? For those reasons, we really don't. And if we don't want to do that, then it's probably just better just to wind it down and put our efforts somewhere else. But -- so that was -- those to me were the drivers. I don't know if Jefferson you want to add?

凱文，讓我——我將從這一點開始，然後杰斐遜和里奇可以介入。我想說，首先，我們從這些業務中的任何一個開始——它對我們有意義並且真正具有一定規模嗎？足以讓我們想要有所作為嗎？當我們審視該業務時，我們喜歡這個團隊。他們知道自己在做什麼。他們非常有競爭力。這是次貸。它是基於消費者的，這會隨著時間的推移增加監管風險，並且已被排除在我們的市場之外。所以這確實不是一件事，但正如我們所說，看，我們想要將其從 3 億美元減少到 10 億美元嗎？由於這些原因，我們真的不這樣做。如果我們不想這樣做，那麼最好是結束它並將我們的努力放在其他地方。但是——事實就是如此——對我來說，那些人就是司機。不知道杰斐遜你要不要加上？

Well, I'll just add into that the same line of reasoning we used to sell the Corporate Benefits insurance business, the health care insurance business, which had very little overlap with our existing customers, similar to MH. This -- in this case, it was even -- it was very, very small, less than $1 million of revenue, so not a lot of overlap with existing clients. So we use a similar reasoning for that business as well. And we'll continue to look at our businesses, especially our smaller businesses with that lens.

好吧，我只是補充一下我們用於銷售企業福利保險業務、醫療保險業務的相同推理，該業務與我們現有的客戶幾乎沒有重疊，類似於 MH。在這種情況下，它甚至非常非常小，收入不到 100 萬美元，因此與現有客戶沒有太多重疊。因此，我們對該業務也使用類似的推理。我們將繼續用這個視角審視我們的業務，尤其是我們的小型企業。

Yes. So it wasn't anything specific to the portfolio or any problems we saw is just really just really an overall business strategy question.

是的。因此，這並不是任何特定於投資組合的問題，或者我們看到的任何問題實際上只是一個整體業務戰略問題。

And that was the business you guys [worried] in and it was just, you inherited it from Reliant, correct?

這就是你們[擔心]的業務，只是，你們從 Reliant 繼承了它，對嗎？

That's correct.

這是正確的。

And will it -- so you stop originating, then do you just let the loans mature out? Or do you go actively trying to sell them? I don't know if there's a market (inaudible).

那麼你會停止發放貸款，然後讓貸款到期嗎？或者你是否積極嘗試出售它們？我不知道是否有市場（聽不清）。

I think with rates moving higher and I think the idea is just to let them mature over time. If rates move down and there's a better market or you can sell them without a loss, then maybe you accelerate the exit of the business, but we're -- our plan currently is just to service the loans and let it run down.

我認為隨著利率走高，我認為這個想法只是讓它們隨著時間的推移而成熟。如果利率下降並且市場更好，或者你可以無損失地出售它們，那麼也許你會加速退出業務，但我們目前的計劃只是償還貸款並讓它減少。

Great. And just a quick follow-up on -- you guys obviously have very strong capital. There's been some discussion that could banks look at selling some of their underwater securities and redeploying some of that at higher rates or paying down debt. Is that something that's on the radar for you all? Or I would imagine that with every acquisition of the First Miami coming in, you really get some of that just from dealing with their securities portfolio. Just curious how you're thinking there.

偉大的。快速跟進一下——你們顯然擁有非常雄厚的資本。有人討論銀行是否可以考慮出售一些水下證券並以更高的利率重新部署其中一些或償還債務。這是你們所有人都在關注的事情嗎？或者我可以想像，隨著第一邁阿密的每一次收購，你真的可以通過處理他們的證券投資組合來獲得一些收益。只是好奇你在那裡怎麼想。

Yes. So we have looked at that, and we are not going to do a restructuring such as that. We did make a decision this quarter to do a swap of $700 million of our securities book from fixed to floating. And the main idea of that was to protect TCE and capital in the event of higher rates. We took our AFS portfolio from 3.5 years duration to 2.5 years duration. We took our AFS portfolio from about 20% floating to 60% floating, and we get a 150 basis points initially, anyway, benefit, which wasn't the reason we did it, but you do get a little benefit by moving to the shorter end of the curve.

是的。所以我們已經研究過這個問題，我們不會進行這樣的重組。本季度我們確實做出了一項決定，將 7 億美元的證券賬簿從固定轉為浮動。其主要思想是在利率上升的情況下保護 TCE 和資本。我們將 AFS 投資組合的期限從 3.5 年延長至 2.5 年。我們將我們的 AFS 投資組合從大約 20% 浮動到 60% 浮動，我們最初獲得了 150 個基點，無論如何，受益，這不是我們這樣做的原因，但是通過轉向更短期，你確實獲得了一些好處曲線的末端。

So part of the margin benefit next quarter is that the securities yield should be in the 280 range. With this change, depending on what rates do. If you get a rate hike, you get a little more benefit from this. And if you get rates down, you get -- it works against you. But we mainly did it for risk allocation and protecting TCE and unrealized losses in a rising rate environment.

因此，下個季度的保證金收益的一部分是證券收益率應該在 280 的範圍內。隨著這個變化，取決於費率做什麼。如果你加息，你會從中獲得更多的好處。如果你降低利率，你就會得到——這對你不利。但我們這樣做主要是為了風險分配以及在利率上升的環境下保護TCE和未實現的損失。

Our next question comes from David Bishop of the Hovde Group.

我們的下一個問題來自 Hovde Group 的 David Bishop。

With the -- I appreciate the color on the hires in the Eastern Tennessee market there. But I don't know if I missed this, does that impact your outlook in terms of expected loan growth this year? Will that have maybe an inflationary result in the back half of the year? Are you still comfortable with that mid-single-digit growth outlook?

我很欣賞田納西州東部市場的員工的膚色。但我不知道我是否錯過了這一點，這是否會影響您對今年預期貸款增長的展望？這是否會在今年下半年導致通貨膨脹？您仍然對中個位數的增長前景感到滿意嗎？

David, this is Rich. To answer your question, I think we're still looking at the mid-single-digit loan growth. I mean, clearly, we've tightened credit criteria for both commercial and mortgage as we move forward in this world, but we are thinking about that same. I expect Q3 to kind of look like Q2, both on loan and deposit growth. I'm hoping that can go, but you realize these people have just started. So within the last 30 days. So it's going to take a quarter for them even to see some results. But what we're really thinking is this is going to be hitting on all cylinders January 1, and we're really excited about that.

大衛，這是里奇。為了回答你的問題，我認為我們仍在關注中等個位數的貸款增長。我的意思是，顯然，隨著我們在這個世界上的進步，我們已經收緊了商業和抵押貸款的信貸標準，但我們也在考慮同樣的事情。我預計第三季度的貸款和存款增長將與第二季度類似。我希望這一切能夠過去，但你意識到這些人才剛剛開始。所以在過去 30 天內。因此，他們甚至需要一個季度才能看到一些結果。但我們真正想到的是，這將在 1 月 1 日全力以赴，我們對此感到非常興奮。

Got it. Understood. And then maybe from a credit perspective, I know -- I appreciate the color on the office portfolio of the segment. But from the surface doesn't look like there's any pressure from debt service burdens (inaudible). But as you look out, any change quarter-to-quarter in terms of ability or prospects for your borrower base to handle higher rates as these loans come up to renewal mature?

知道了。明白了。然後也許從信用的角度來看，我知道——我很欣賞該部門辦公樓投資組合的顏色。但從表面上看，似乎沒有任何來自償債負擔的壓力（聽不清）。但正如您所觀察到的，隨著這些貸款到期續簽，您的借款人基礎處理更高利率的能力或前景是否會出現季度與季度的變化？

Yes. Thanks, David. This is Rob Edwards. So we've done several analysis, both at a -- sort of a special stress test at the top of the house that sort of focuses on CRE. We've gone through some fixed rate variety of CRE products and looked at top 50 and reamortized at new rates, and we're actually doing another one of those tests right now. So we're sort of in an ongoing sort of stress the portfolio from different angles.

是的。謝謝，大衛。這是羅布·愛德華茲。因此，我們做了幾項分析，都是在房屋頂部進行的一種特殊壓力測試，重點關注商業地產。我們已經檢查了一些固定利率的 CRE 產品，查看了前 50 名並按新利率重新攤銷，我們現在實際上正在做另一項測試。因此，我們從不同角度持續對投資組合施加壓力。

And so far, we haven't seen anything that really identifies as when the rates change, these people aren't going to be able to make payments. Really, the first test we looked at was fixed rate borrowers maturing in the next 24 months because I think you sort of go back in time and you're like, well, the rates are going to change the most, but we had one borrower that we would have graded special mention after the analysis. But as it turns out, they were already rated special mention. So we just didn't see anything that forecast a need for a change or any downgrading.

到目前為止，我們還沒有看到任何真正確定的情況，即當利率發生變化時，這些人將無法付款。確實，我們研究的第一個測試是在未來 24 個月內到期的固定利率借款人，因為我認為你有點回到過去，你會想，好吧，利率變化最大，但我們有一個借款人分析後我們會給予特別提及。但事實證明，他們已經被評為特別提及。因此，我們沒有看到任何預示需要進行更改或降級的內容。

Our next question comes from Russell Gunther of Stephens.

我們的下一個問題來自斯蒂芬斯的拉塞爾·岡瑟。

Just a couple of quick follow-ups at this point. On the office topic, I appreciate the recent remarks. Do you guys have a maturity schedule that you could share for that sector?

此時只需進行一些快速跟進。關於辦公室話題，我很欣賞最近的言論。你們有可以分享該行業的成熟度時間表嗎？

We could create one. We have looked at the maturities in a couple of different ways. I was thinking there was a maturity in the K. We'd have to get back to you or the queue maybe. I have to get back to you on that, Russell.

我們可以創建一個。我們以幾種不同的方式審視了期限。我認為 K 已經成熟了。我們可能必須回复您或隊列。我必須就此回复你，拉塞爾。

Okay. No worries. And then just last one on the deposit side. Any color you guys can share in terms of retention out of progress in First Miami?

好的。不用擔心。然後是存款方面的最後一個。關於第一邁阿密的進展保留率，你們有什麼可以分享的嗎？

So I'll pass this to Rich. It's a hard question, but at First Miami just closed, so we don't really have a lot there, but talk about progress.

所以我會把這個轉給里奇。這是一個很難回答的問題，但第一邁阿密剛剛結束，所以我們實際上沒有太多進展，但可以談談進展。

Sure. I think the challenge with progress at the beginning is we had all this pressure and we had a conversion. And so the great news is the conversion is behind us. And talking with David Nast, our State President there, he feels very positive on this quarter. Not only we had loan growth last quarter, so that was strong, but he is anticipating and forecasting that we'll have some loan growth this quarter as well. And with our pricing strategies and the fact that we have the conversion behind us, he is the new -- he also is the first to get the new logo. So there's some excitement there as well. .

當然。我認為一開始取得進展的挑戰是我們面臨所有這些壓力，並且我們進行了轉變。所以好消息是轉變已經過去了。在與我們的州總統戴維·納斯特交談時，他對本季度感到非常積極。我們不僅上個季度的貸款增長強勁，而且他預計並預測本季度我們也會有一些貸款增長。憑藉我們的定價策略以及我們已經完成轉換的事實，他是新的——他也是第一個獲得新標誌的人。所以那裡也有一些令人興奮的事情。 。

And I can give more detail exact numbers for you there on what progress deposits have been since we bought [FM].

我可以為您提供更詳細的確切數字，說明自我們購買 [FM] 以來進度存款的情況。

Last question comes from Christopher Marinac of Janney.

最後一個問題來自 Janney 的 Christopher Marinac。

As you look at the deposits and kind of new customers that have come in this year and just existing customers doing more, what are the average life of those relationships? Is it something north of 3 years? Is it longer than that? I just kind of want to (inaudible) kind of franchise value for the organization as you've expanded?

當您查看今年的存款和新客戶類型以及現有客戶的更多情況時，這些關係的平均壽命是多少？是不是超過3年了？有比那更長的嗎？我只是想（聽不清）隨著你們的擴張，為組織帶來某種特許經營價值？

Wow, that's a great question. We've been thinking a lot about that. We have ALCO, I think, later today that we're going to be talking about that because what we've seen is that our -- as rates have risen, our asset durations have expanded, and we think our liability durations have shortened. Now what you're seeing is a mix change from the product that you would usually assume as your longest duration product of DDA towards CDs, which have a stated duration to them, right? So it's -- you're seeing some mathematical mix change affecting the duration.

哇，這是一個很好的問題。我們對此思考了很多。我想，我們今天晚些時候將討論 ALCO，因為我們看到的是，隨著利率上升，我們的資產期限延長了，我們認為我們的負債期限縮短了。現在您看到的是從您通常認為是最長持續時間的 DDA 產品到 CD 的混合變化，CD 具有規定的持續時間，對嗎？所以，你會看到一些數學混合變化影響了持續時間。

But then you're also seeing with price competition, customers move around. So I still think we're longer than 4 years -- 4, 4.5 years on our liability duration. And -- but as we're doing the math, we have $1 billion. We're trying to calculate surge. We're trying to calculate new durations on each individual product, and we're watching the mix change on DDA. So all in, I think we're around 4.5 years, which is longer than our assets. But that's going to require a longer call kind of off-site to talk about all the different changes that we think are going on. But in total...

但你也會看到，由於價格競爭，客戶會流動。所以我仍然認為我們的責任期限超過 4 年——4、4.5 年。而且——但是當我們計算時，我們有 10 億美元。我們正在嘗試計算激增。我們正在嘗試計算每個產品的新持續時間，並且我們正在觀察 DDA 上的組合變化。總而言之，我認為我們的壽命約為 4.5 年，這比我們的資產還要長。但這將需要更長的場外通話來討論我們認為正在發生的所有不同變化。但總的來說...

In terms of the actual customer life, we actually are doing a deep dive into that in our strategic planning sessions coming up in August. So I don't have the numbers to share with you now. But if you look at the organizations that we've purchased, it's a very stable deposit base. I think three of our organizations we bought were over 100 years old, including Palmetto here. Our bank is 72 years old, First National in Miami, 70 years old. So it's an outstanding deposit franchise. I would expect those -- that number to look good as we look at it here in a month or so. We just got -- the way I really try to focus on it is on the customer service side. So we were disappointed to lose J.D. Power this past year. I will say in the first wave, they do 4 waves -- quarterly wave. We were in the lead in the Southeast by 39 points, which is pretty outstanding. So great job to the employees that are listening to this. So I expect that we're very confident with how our deposit base will (inaudible).

就實際客戶生活而言，我們實際上正在八月份召開的戰略規劃會議中深入探討這一點。所以我現在沒有可以與你們分享的數字。但如果你看看我們購買的組織，就會發現這是一個非常穩定的存款基礎。我認為我們購買的三個組織都有 100 多年的歷史，包括這裡的 Palmetto。我們的銀行已經有72年曆史了，邁阿密的第一國民銀行也有70年曆史了。所以這是一個出色的存款專營權。我預計，當我們在一個月左右的時間裡看到這個數字時，這個數字看起來會很好。我們剛剛得到——我真正嘗試關注的方式是在客戶服務方面。因此，我們對去年失去 J.D. Power 感到失望。我會說，在第一波中，他們進行了 4 波——季度波。我們在東南部領先39分，這是相當出色的。對於正在收聽此內容的員工來說，幹得很好。因此，我預計我們對我們的存款基礎非常有信心（聽不清）。

And I'll add one more thing with that will change of lens of how we're thinking about it. But I look at our net new ratios every month and our year-over-year net new and look at every market and our new customers are well ahead of the customers that we lose. And then when you see the deposits growth or shrinkage is usually it's within our existing customers that are continuing as existing customers. It's just that maybe they've moved some money to treasuries or into other nonbank things. So from a customer life standpoint, it's very long and hasn't changed and we're adding a lot of new customers.

我還要補充一件事，這將改變我們思考問題的視角。但我每個月都會查看我們的淨新比率和同比淨新比率，並查看每個市場，我們的新客戶遠遠領先於我們失去的客戶。然後，當您看到存款增長或收縮時，通常是我們現有的客戶繼續作為現有客戶。只是也許他們已經將一些資金轉移到國庫券或其他非銀行資產中。因此，從客戶生命的角度來看，它很長並且沒有改變，我們正在添加很多新客戶。

Good stuff. That's really helpful. I just had a quick follow-up, kind of a joint question for Rob and Rich, which is just to maybe delineate the difference between senior care and senior housing. And are there still opportunities in senior housing down the road?

好東西。這真的很有幫助。我剛剛向羅布和里奇提出了一個快速跟進的問題，這是一個共同的問題，這可能只是為了描述老年護理和老年住房之間的區別。未來高級住房領域還有機會嗎？

So I think we don't have a separate category for senior housing. You're talking about 55 plus?

所以我認為我們沒有單獨的老年住房類別。你說的是55+嗎？

Exactly, yes.

沒錯，是的。

We have, I think, two multifamily -- we would put senior housing in the multifamily category in our reporting. And I'm not sure I have a breakout of that. So senior care would in -- as the way we have it listed in the investor deck would include independent living, assisted living and memory care.

我認為，我們有兩個多戶住宅——我們會在報告中將老年住房歸入多戶住宅類別。我不確定我是否已經突破了這一點。因此，老年護理將會出現——因為我們在投資者名單中列出的方式將包括獨立生活、輔助生活和記憶護理。

Got it. And then on the over 55, it's -- we have started to see those product, but it's probably limited to a handful in the whole footprint. So we are interested in it, but cautiously.

知道了。然後在 55 歲以上的產品中，我們已經開始看到這些產品，但在整個足跡中可能僅限於少數。所以我們對此很感興趣，但很謹慎。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Lynn Harton for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給林恩·哈頓 (Lynn Harton) 致閉幕詞。

Once again, many thanks for being on the call. Great questions. I'd be glad to follow-up with anything that you'd need. Just give us a call, and hope you have a great rest of your day. Thank you.

再次非常感謝您的來電。很好的問題。我很樂意跟進您需要的任何事情。請致電我們，祝您度過愉快的一天。謝謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。