優步 (UBER) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello and welcome to the Uber fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

您好，歡迎參加 Uber 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to Deepa Subramanian, Vice President, Investor Relations.

（操作員指示）現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Deepa Subramanian。

You may begin.

你可以開始了。

Thank you, operator.

謝謝您，接線生。

Thank you for joining us today, and welcome to Uber's fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings presentation.

感謝您今天的加入我們，歡迎參加 Uber 2024 年第四季和全年財報。

On the call today, we have Uber CEO, Dara Khosrowshahi; and CFO, Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah.

今天的電話會議由 Uber 執行長 Dara Khosrowshahi 主持；和財務長 Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah。

During today's call, we will present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將介紹 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標。

Additional disclosures regarding these non-GAAP measures, including a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures are included in the press release, supplemental slides, and our filings with the SEC, each of which is posted to investor.uber.com.

關於這些非公認會計準則指標的額外揭露，包括公認會計準則與非公認會計準則指標的對賬，均包含在新聞稿、補充投影片和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中，這些文件均發佈在 investor.uber.com 上。

Certain statements in this presentation and on this call are forward-looking statements.

本簡報和電話會議中的某些陳述屬於前瞻性陳述。

You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.

您不應過度依賴前瞻性陳述。

Actual results may differ materially from these forward-looking statements, and we do not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statements we make today, except as required by law.

實際結果可能與這些前瞻性聲明有重大差異，除非法律要求，否則我們不承擔更新今天所做的任何前瞻性陳述的任何義務。

For more information about factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from forward-looking statements, please refer to the press release we issued today as well as the risks and uncertainties described in our most recent Form 10-K and in other filings made with the SEC.

有關可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的因素的更多信息，請參閱我們今天發布的新聞稿以及我們最新的 10-K 表格和向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中所描述的風險和不確定性。

We published our quarterly earnings, press release, prepared remarks and supplemental slides to our Investor Relations website earlier today, and we ask you to review those documents if you haven't already.

我們今天早些時候在投資者關係網站上發布了我們的季度收益、新聞稿、準備好的評論和補充幻燈片，如果您還沒有查看過這些文件，我們請您查看一下。

We will open the call to questions following brief opening remarks from Dara.

在達拉致簡短的開場白後，我們將開始提問。

With that, let me hand it over to Dara.

說完這些，讓我把它交給達拉 (Dara)。

Thanks, Deepa.

謝謝，Deepa。

So the theme of this quarter is acceleration.

所以本季的主題是加速。

We accelerated growth in audience, trips, and the top line.

我們加速了觀眾、旅行和營業額的成長。

Gross bookings growth on a constant currency basis beat even our own expectations, coming in above the high end of our guidance.

以固定匯率計算的總預訂量成長甚至超出了我們的預期，達到了預期的最高值。

This performance was powered by strong product innovation across our platform, driving multiproduct use to an all-time high of 37% of Uber consumers.

這項業績得益於我們平台強大的產品創新，推動 Uber 消費者的多產品使用率達到歷史最高水準 37%。

It was also a stellar few months for Uber One membership program, where we added 5 million members in the quarter, bringing our total member base to 30 million, up nearly 60% year on year.

對於 Uber One 會員計劃來說，這幾個月也是輝煌的，我們在本季度增加了 500 萬會員，使我們的總會員數量達到 3000 萬，同比增長近 60%。

We're now one year into the three-year outlook we presented to investors last February, and I'm pleased to say that in 2024, we cleanly exceeded our commitments on all three components of that framework.

我們去年 2 月向投資者提出的三年展望已經過去一年了，我很高興地說，到 2024 年，我們徹底超額完成了該框架所有三個組成部分的承諾。

Gross bookings grew 21% versus our commitment to mid- to high-teens constant currency CAGR.

總預訂量成長了 21%，而我們承諾的中高水準固定匯率複合年增長率則為。

Adjusted EBITDA grew 60% year on year versus the high 30%s to 40% CAGR.

調整後的 EBITDA 年成長 60%，而複合年增長率高達 30% 至 40%。

And annual free cash flow as a percentage of EBITDA was 106% versus our indication of 90%-plus.

年度自由現金流佔 EBITDA 的百分比為 106%，而我們預計該數字為 90% 以上。

We're thrilled with this performance and have started 2025 with a lot of momentum.

我們對這樣的表現感到非常興奮，並以強勁的勢頭開啟了 2025 年。

Despite FX headwinds, we expect continued strong growth in Q1 with 17% to 21% constant currency gross bookings growth and continued profit expansion.

儘管面臨外匯不利因素，我們預計第一季仍將繼續強勁成長，以固定匯率計算的總預訂量將成長 17% 至 21%，利潤將繼續擴大。

Lastly, a word on autonomous.

最後，談談自主。

I'd encourage everyone to read our prepared remarks and supplemental slides where we spend some more time this quarter, sharing our perspective on the state of AVs.

我鼓勵大家閱讀我們準備好的評論和補充幻燈片，我們在本季花更多時間分享我們對 AV 現狀的看法。

The key takeaway is that while AV technology is advancing, commercialization will take significantly longer.

關鍵的一點是，雖然 AV 技術正在進步，但商業化將需要更長的時間。

And we have conviction that Uber will be the indispensable go-to-market partner for AV players.

我們堅信，Uber 將成為 AV 參與者不可或缺的市場合作夥伴。

This is undoubtedly one of our top priorities, and we're investing a lot of technical, strategic, and management attention to this topic with lots more to come.

這無疑是我們的首要任務之一，我們正在對這個主題投入大量的技術、策略和管理關注，並且還將投入更多精力。

Just today, we announced that Austin residents can sign up for interest list right in their Uber app to increase their chances of matching within Waymo AV when we launch next month.

就在今天，我們宣布奧斯汀居民可以在他們的 Uber 應用程式中註冊興趣列表，以增加他們在下個月推出的 Waymo AV 中匹配的機會。

With that, operator, let's take your questions.

接線員，現在讓我們來回答您的問題。

Brian Nowak, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的布萊恩諾瓦克 (Brian Nowak)。

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

I have two, one on autonomous and one on the core rides business.

我有兩個，一個是關於自動駕駛的，一個是關於核心乘車業務的。

So the first one, Dara, is on autonomous.

第一個，Dara，是自主的。

As you think about the portfolio of assets you have at the company, how do you think philosophically about investing more in autonomous assets, be it first-party car fleet or other fleet management tools?

當您考慮公司擁有的資產組合時，您如何從哲學角度考慮在自動駕駛資產上進行更多投資，無論是第一方汽車車隊還是其他車隊管理工具？

Or where are you on sort of the portfolio of the current assets from an autonomous perspective?

或者從自主角度來看，您在目前資產組合中處於什麼位置？

And then on the core business, can you just talk to us a little bit about how you think about puts and takes on rides, incremental margins, and sort of profitability in the first quarter and throughout 2025?

然後關於核心業務，您能否與我們簡單談談您對第一季以及整個 2025 年的乘車情況、增量利潤和盈利能力的看法？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Absolutely.

絕對地。

So Brian, I think on autonomous, we think we are very, very well positioned.

因此，布萊恩，我認為在自主駕駛方面，我們認為我們處於非常非常有利的位置。

We're investing aggressively across all parts of the portfolio.

我們正在對投資組合的各個部分進行積極投資。

And I think the way that you can think about it is that every new product that we build, we first build by going out and investing in supply and building out kind of liquidity on the supply side.

我認為，你可以這樣想：我們製造的每一個新產品，都先透過投資供應並在供應側建立某種流動性來製造。

And you really need that kind of magical liquidity to be able to match kind of variable demand and provide the 5 to 6 minutes consistent ETAs in order for the network effect that you see on a local basis for us work.

您確實需要那種神奇的流動性來匹配各種可變的需求，並提供 5 到 6 分鐘的一致 ETA，以便您在本地看到網絡效應為我們發揮作用。

And in autonomous, it's the same thing.

在自主領域也是如此。

Like we did it with taxi; we've done it with low cost; we've done it with high-capacity vehicles; we did it for UberX in the past.

就像我們坐計程車一樣；我們以低成本完成了這件事；我們已經用大容量車輛實現了這一目標；我們以前也為 UberX 做過這樣的事。

It's just an investment in building out the supply base to match variable demand, and then the magic happens in a particular city.

這只是為了滿足可變需求而建立供應基地的投資，然後奇蹟就會在特定的城市發生。

You'll see that magic in work in Austin coming up in a month.

一個月後，您將在奧斯汀的工作中見證這一奇蹟。

And as far as investments that we make, we're absolutely investing in fleet supply.

就我們的投資而言，我們絕對會投資車隊供應。

This is an investment that we made for over a long time.

這是我們長期的一項投資。

Fleets now represent about 15% of our inventory.

車隊目前約占我們庫存的15%。

So we are very well positioned to have kind of fleets in market that can manage autonomous.

因此，我們完全有能力在市場上推出能夠自主管理的車隊。

We are looking at acquiring kind of depots with the electrification required for charging the fleets, et cetera.

我們正在考慮收購具有為車隊充電所需電氣化的車庫等。

And obviously, we are going out to -- with various autonomous players and building out technical partnerships and then talking with OEMs about securing supply as they are manufacturing platforms are preparing to get to scale for the next generation of autonomous.

顯然，我們將與各種自動駕駛汽車參與者建立技術合作夥伴關係，然後與原始設備製造商 (OEM) 討論如何確保供應，因為他們的製造平台正在為下一代自動駕駛汽車擴大規模做準備。

So it's a broad investment.

所以這是一項廣泛的投資。

It's across a very, very low number of units, so you're not really going to notice it in the P&L.

它涉及的單位數量非常非常少，因此你不會在損益表中註意到它。

But we do think that this investment is going to prepare us as autonomous starts to scale and as kind of the commercial economics start to be apparent.

但我們確實認為，這項投資將為我們做好準備，因為自主權開始擴大規模，商業經濟開始顯現。

But even with these investments, which I would term as aggressive investments, you're unlikely to impact the three-year outlook that we've given you.

但即使有了這些投資（我稱之為積極的投資），你也不太可能影響我們給你的三年展望。

We think we can -- this is kind of the power van, which is we can deliver and some of the three-year outlook and, at the same time, we can be investing aggressively in AV supply in every way.

我們認為我們可以——這是一種動力車，我們可以實現一些三年的展望，同時，我們可以積極投資 AV 供應的各個方面。

Brian, it's Prashanth.

布萊恩，我是 Prashanth。

I'm going to take the second part of that question.

我將回答該問題的第二部分。

And I think your question was really around the mobility profitability trends and outlook.

我認為您的問題實際上是有關移動盈利趨勢和前景。

So maybe I'll start with just a reminder that we want folks to look at the business the same way we do, which is at a total company level, and we're making investment decisions across our segments based on where we see the strongest returns and growth potential.

因此，我首先要提醒大家的是，我們希望人們以與我們相同的方式看待業務，即從整個公司的角度，我們根據看到的最強勁回報和成長潛力來做出各部門的投資決策。

So we're going to continue to invest in mobility, consistent with the overall profitability framework that we gave you guys back in February.

因此，我們將繼續在行動領域進行投資，這與我們在二月份向大家提供的整體獲利框架保持一致。

So I wouldn't read anything into sort of how mobility profitability looks, other than we're seeing a lot of opportunities to continue to invest and drive growth.

因此，我不會對行動獲利能力做出任何解讀，只是我們看到了許多繼續投資和推動成長的機會。

In this quarter that just closed, our EBITDA margin was 7.8% of gross bookings, and that was up 30 basis points year over year.

在剛結束的本季度，我們的 EBITDA 利潤率為總預訂量的 7.8%，年增 30 個基點。

We see continued benefits from supply incentives, leverage on the operating costs, and partially offset some of that tailwind by higher insurance costs, which we've talked about before.

我們看到了供應激勵、營運成本槓桿帶來的持續利益，以及更高的保險成本部分抵消了部分順風，我們之前已經談到過這一點。

But overall, these investments are really helping us put up that strong mobility growth number, which was on a constant currency basis 24% in Q4, and we saw acceleration in the US.

但總體而言，這些投資確實幫助我們實現了強勁的流動性成長，以固定匯率計算，第四季的流動性成長為 24%，而且我們看到美國的成長加速。

So we're leaning into things like membership.

因此，我們傾向於會員資格之類的事情。

I think in the prepared remarks, we talked about 30 million members now.

我想在準備好的發言中我們談到了現在有 3000 萬名會員。

That's up 5 million sequentially.

這比上一季增加了 500 萬。

I think it's up 60% year-over-year.

我認為它比去年同期增長了 60%。

Teens is another great area.

青少年是另一個很棒的領域。

I think we've more than doubled the number of countries that Uber Teens is available in the fourth quarter and the usual areas like finding the right balance in marketplace and continuing to open up new geographies and add some products.

我認為我們在第四季度將 Uber Teens 提供服務的國家數量增加了一倍以上，並且還在一些常見領域如尋找市場中的適當平衡、繼續開拓新的地區並增加一些產品。

So again, it's part of our overall model that we gave you back in February of last year, which is to drive that mid- to high teens GB growth and that high 30%s to 40% profitability.

所以，這是我們去年 2 月提供給您的整體模型的一部分，該模型旨在推動英國實現中高水準的成長和 30% 至 40% 的高獲利能力。

And we'll continue to make the trade-offs we think are necessary to hit those numbers and also ensure that once we leave that three-year framework, we're still driving great top line.

我們將繼續做出我們認為必要的權衡，以實現這些數字，並確保一旦我們離開三年框架，我們仍然能夠實現出色的營收。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you, both.

謝謝你們兩位。

Eric Sheridan, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的艾瑞克‧謝裡丹 (Eric Sheridan)。

Thank you so much for taking the questions.

非常感謝您回答這些問題。

Maybe building on Brian's question on supply and just widening it out a little bit in both businesses.

或許可以基於 Brian 關於供應的問題，並在兩個業務中稍微擴大一下範圍。

You talked on prior earnings calls about sort of extending the network as a potential stimulant for rider growth and supply density.

您在先前的收益電話會議上談到了擴展網路作為促進乘客成長和供應密度的潛在刺激因素。

Can you talk a little bit about those efforts and how they continue to scale and how we should be thinking about them as a potential growth driver for 2025 and beyond as you continue to scale into more areas of mobility?

您能否簡單談談這些努力以及它們如何繼續擴大規模，以及隨著您繼續擴展到更多行動領域，我們應該如何將它們視為 2025 年及以後的潛在成長動力？

And then on the delivery side, any update on user behavior?

那麼在交付方面，用戶行為有任何更新嗎？

Obviously, the array of supply that's available to a shopper today is very different than it was 12, 18 months ago.

顯然，如今購物者可以買到的商品種類與 12 至 18 個月前有很大不同。

What is that doing to user behavior, frequency, basket size?

這對使用者行為、頻率、購物籃大小有什麼影響？

How should we be thinking about supply impacting those dynamics in the delivery business?

我們該如何看待供應對配送業務動態的影響？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you for the question.

感謝您的提問。

So first, just as a reminder folks, the way we think of the business and we encourage everyone else too is our growth is a combination of audience.

首先，提醒一下大家，我們對業務的看法以及我們鼓勵其他人的看法是，我們的成長是受眾的結合。

So the number of users who are hitting our platform every month, how often they are engaging with the platform, which we measure as frequency.

因此，我們用頻率來衡量每月造訪我們平台的使用者數量，以及他們使用該平台的頻率。

And then you round it out with price to turn trips into GBs.

然後你用價格將行程次數轉換成 GB。

So in the last couple of quarters, we've made some comments on how we're focusing on less dense or some of the sparser geographies, which I think is where you're your question is coming from.

因此，在過去幾個季度中，我們就如何關注人口密度較低或一些人口稀少的地區發表了一些評論，我認為這就是您提出這個問題的來源。

So as a reminder, the growth framework through 2026 is for that core business to grow in the low to mid-teens and then the growth bets we're making to kind of help push us up into that higher teens.

所以提醒一下，到 2026 年的成長框架是讓核心業務以低到中等的比率成長，然後我們所做的成長賭注將幫助我們將成長率推高到更高的比率。

And the initiative that we're focusing on to -- in those less denser, sparser geos is really around driving the penetration into those less dense areas so we can extend sort of the length of time that we can get that core business to continue growing at an attractive rate.

我們所關注的舉措——在那些人口密度較低、較為稀疏的地區，實際上是為了推動對這些人口密度較低地區的滲透，以便我們能夠延長核心業務繼續以有吸引力的速度增長的時間。

One of the things we've observed is that in our more populated or dense areas versus where we were maybe two or three years ago, growth has started to come down a bit because those areas obviously are more penetrated.

我們觀察到的情況是，與兩三年前相比，在人口更密集的地區，成長已經開始下降，因為這些地區的滲透率顯然更高。

Now we can offset this by pushing out into less areas.

現在我們可以透過減少覆蓋區域來抵消這一影響。

This started initially as a US delivery initiative.

這最初是作為一項美國交付舉措開始的。

And it's really expanded now into a global one.

現在它已經真正擴展為全球性企業。

I would say that as we focused on the US delivery business, we realized that the same opportunity existed across mobility and really around the world.

我想說，當我們專注於美國的配送業務時，我們意識到整個行動領域乃至全世界都存在著同樣的機會。

And we're finding real promise really on the mobility side, both in the US and non-US as well as in non-US delivery, where we're now creating some more programs in this space.

我們發現移動性方面確實有希望，無論是在美國還是美國以外，也無論是在美國以外的地區交付，我們現在正在這個領域創造更多的專案。

We see much higher growth in these less sparser areas.

我們發現這些人口較為稀少的地區的成長速度要快得多。

I think we've talked about in the past that it's not uncommon for us to see 1.5 or more times faster growth outside of more dense areas.

我想我們過去曾討論過，在人口密集地區之外看到 1.5 倍或更多倍的增長速度並不罕見。

And we do that a few ways.

我們透過幾種方法來實現這一點。

On the mobility side, it is supply.

從流動性方面來說，是供應。

So it's really about where we are investing into supply such as creating incentives to bring new drivers into those areas, opening more cities and locations.

因此，這實際上是關於我們在供應方面的投資，例如創造激勵措施以吸引新司機進入這些地區，並開放更多城市和地點。

For example, when you think of the UK, you often think of London.

例如，當您想到英國時，通常會想到倫敦。

But for us now, Liverpool, Manchester, those become areas that we want to continue to grow out in Europe.

但對我們來說，現在利物浦、曼徹斯特這些都是我們希望在歐洲繼續發展的地區。

We've got our efforts to add taxis, which will help us in some of those more sparser populated areas.

我們正在努力增加計程車，這將對我們在一些人口較為稀少的地區提供服務有所幫助。

So once we have the supply, then we can use incentives to make sure the pricing is right to spur demand and sort of get that flywheel going that is the magic of the Uber marketplace.

所以一旦我們有了供應，我們就可以使用激勵措施來確保定價合理，從而刺激需求，並讓飛輪運轉起來，這就是 Uber 市場的魔力。

And then on the product enhancements, I would say that the option that we give consumers who are in some of these less dense areas is they can pay with price or they can pay with time.

關於產品增強，我想說，我們為這些人口密度較低地區的消費者提供的選擇是，他們可以按價格付款，也可以按時間付款。

If you want to pay with price, you can use something like our reserve product, which will give you a very high accuracy of you'll know when your ride is going to be there.

如果您想按價格付款，您可以使用類似我們的預留產品，它可以非常準確地讓您知道您的車何時到達。

And it allows us to use our marketplace tech to make sure that we find someone who's able to be at the location you want when you need them there.

而且它使我們能夠使用我們的市場技術來確保我們能夠找到能夠在您需要時到達您想要的地點的人。

Or if you're willing to pay with time, we extend the wait times, which allow us again to use the marketplace algos to find drivers or couriers who are in the region, but may take a little bit more time to get there.

或者，如果您願意按時間付費，我們會延長等待時間，這使我們能夠再次使用市場演算法來查找該地區的司機或快遞員，但可能需要更多時間才能到達那裡。

And we're finding that in the suburbs, people are more open to longer wait times.

我們發現在郊區，人們更願意接受更長的等待時間。

And then I think on the -- on delivery and the growth rates there, what we're doing, listen, the basis remain the same, which is, it's all about selection, it's about price and it's about quality.

然後我認為，在交付和成長率方面，我們正在做的事情，聽著，基礎保持不變，也就是說，一切都關乎選擇，關乎價格，關乎品質。

In terms of selection, we got over 1 million active merchants, up about 16% year on year.

在選擇方面，我們擁有超過100萬活躍商家，較去年同期成長約16％。

These are big and small merchants.

這些都是大商人和小商人。

Our sales per merchant continued to increase on a year-on-year basis.

我們的每位商家銷售額持續年增。

But if you look at our total kind of penetration here in our top 10 markets, we have about one-third of the merchants out in those markets.

但如果你看看我們在前十大市場的整體滲透率，你會發現我們在這些市場擁有大約三分之一的商家。

So we think there's a huge amount of runway as it relates to selection.

因此，我們認為，在選擇方面，存在著巨大的空間。

Selection increases conversion but also brings in new audience once eaters figure out that their great neighborhood audience is available on Uber Eats as well.

一旦食客發現他們附近的優質受眾也可以在 Uber Eats 上找到，選擇不僅能提高轉換率，還能帶來新的受眾。

Second for us is price.

對我們來說第二個是價格。

And the number of merchant-funded offers, so to speak, to lowering price is at all-time high.

而商家出資提供的降價優惠數量也達到了歷史最高水準。

This is a really important initiative in terms of merchants being able to promote on the network and getting boosted in terms of their sort order for that promotion.

對於商家來說，這是一個非常重要的舉措，使他們能夠在網路上進行推廣，並提高推廣的排序順序。

And then membership, which Prashanth talked about, now 30 million members, up 60% year on year.

然後是 Prashanth 談到的會員人數，現在有 3000 萬會員，比去年同期增長 60％。

That able membership essentially effectively is delivering discounts to our most loyal members.

這種會員資格其實就是為我們最忠實的會員提供折扣。

So price is actually something that we're very, very actively working on.

因此，價格實際上是我們正在非常積極地研究的問題。

And then, of course, quality, making sure that our defect rate continues to go down in terms of making sure that every delivery is a perfect delivery.

然後，當然是質量，確保我們的缺陷率持續下降，以確保每次交付都是完美的。

And then on the back-end side, for example, as it relates to shoppers for grocery, we're really focused on the quality of those shoppers.

然後在後端，例如，當它與雜貨購物者相關時，我們真正關注的是這些購物者的品質。

It's a lot easier, for example, just to deliver, let's say, an online food delivery to home.

舉個例子，將網路訂餐送到家裡就變得容易多了。

Shopping for 20 items, 25 items and getting it perfectly right is much more of a challenge.

購買 20 件物品、25 件物品並找到完美的物品是一項更大的挑戰。

So we're really shifting our marketplace metrics from cost and efficiency to cost efficiency and quality as well.

因此，我們實際上正在將市場衡量標準從成本和效率轉變為成本效率和品質。

So when you bring all that together, selection, price, quality, increased marketing campaigns, you -- hopefully, you'll see our Super Bowl campaign out there.

所以，當你把所有這些結合在一起，選擇、價格、品質、增加的行銷活動，你——希望你會看到我們的超級盃活動。

You get a good combination of growth in merchants growth in audience, growth in frequency.

您可以獲得商家成長、受眾成長和頻率成長的良好組合。

And it's all powered by our push into less dense areas and membership as well.

這一切都得益於我們向人口密度較低地區和會員人數的拓展。

So we're very, very happy with the trends there.

所以我們對那裡的趨勢非常非常滿意。

You saw delivery gross bookings accelerate quarter-on-quarter, and we think that's just more evidence that we've got a long, long runway here.

您將看到交付總訂單量逐季加速，我們認為這進一步證明我們在這裡擁有很長的跑道。

Justin Post, Bank of America.

美國銀行的賈斯汀·波斯特 (Justin Post)。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Appreciate it.

非常感謝。

A couple of questions on the prepared remarks.

關於準備好的發言，我有幾個問題。

Dara, you mentioned nine different AV companies and also OEMs in your prepared remarks.

Dara，您在準備好的演講中提到了九家不同的 AV 公司以及 OEM。

US-centric, we're only releasing two companies with really high visibility right now.

以美國為中心，我們目前只發布兩家知名度真正高的公司。

Can you talk about how you think the market could evolve from here, and why it might not be just two companies and what you're seeing globally?

您能否談談您認為市場今後將如何發展，以及為什麼它可能不只是兩家公司，以及您在全球範圍內看到的情況？

And then on the constant currency outlook, I think you did 21% in Q4.

然後根據恆定匯率前景，我認為第四季的成長率為 21%。

You're guiding 17% to 21% in Q1.

您預計第一季的成長幅度將達到 17% 至 21%。

But also there's prepared remarks about kind of being stable.

但也有關於穩定的準備好的評論。

So maybe talk about what would be driving you down to 17% to 18% constant currency or what would cause you to be more at the higher end of the 21% in Q1.

因此，也許可以談談是什麼原因導致您的固定匯率比率降至 17％ 至 18％，或者是什麼原因導致您在第一季的匯率處於 21％ 的高端。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

I think on AVs, first of all, the opportunity we think of the US and worldwide for AVs is enormous.

我認為就自動駕駛汽車而言，首先，我們認為美國乃至全世界的自動駕駛汽車機會是巨大的。

We estimate that the US market alone is a $1 trillion opportunity as you commercialize AV at scale and bring the unit economics down.

我們估計，隨著 AV 大規模商業化並降低單位經濟效益，光是美國市場就擁有 1 兆美元的機會。

And while we're incredibly excited in terms of the development of the technology, you see Waymo in market obviously, who is a terrific partner, and a number of players including Tesla trying to get to prime time so to speak.

雖然我們對這項技術的發展感到非常興奮，但你顯然會看到 Waymo 在市場上，他是一位很棒的合作夥伴，而且包括特斯拉在內的許多參與者都在努力搶佔黃金時段。

We think that the commercialization of the technology is going to take way, way longer.

我們認為該技術的商業化還需要更長的時間。

And by the time that the technology commercializes all over the world and in the US, you're going to see many, many more players get over the finish line as it relates to technology.

當該技術在世界各地和美國實現商業化時，你會看到越來越多的參與者在技術方面取得成功。

And just stepping back for a second, this applies for the US, it applies all over the world.

退一步來說，這適用於美國，也適用於全世界。

There are five factors that you need, all of which need to come together for scale commercialization of this business, and scale commercialization is like 10%, 20%, 30% of our volumes on a US basis, let's say, a global basis.

實現該業務的規模商業化需要五個因素，所有這些因素都需要結合在一起，而規模商業化大約占我們在美國甚至全球範圍內業務量的 10%、20%、30%。

First, you have to get regulations.

首先，你必須制定法規。

You got to enable regulations.

你必須啟用法規。

There are national regulations, state regulations, city regulations.

有國家法規、州法規、城市法規。

It's pretty complicated.

這相當複雜。

Obviously, regulators have to be -- get comfortable with this new technology on the streets affecting our every day.

顯然，監管者必須適應這項影響我們日常生活的新技術。

Second, in order to get regulators comfortable, we think you need a consistently superhuman safety record.

其次，為了讓監管者放心，我們認為你需要時時保持超人的安全紀錄。

Like we don't think it's good enough for an autonomous driver to be better than a human.

就像我們認為自動駕駛汽車還不足以比人類更好一樣。

I think we have the chance to be multiple times better than a human.

我認為我們有機會比人類優秀很多倍。

And I think the industry should take that kind of chance and insist on a superhuman safety record.

我認為航空業應該抓住這種機會，堅持超人的安全紀錄。

You're seeing Waymo definitely get there and many, many other players kind of working to get their safety record up and demonstrate that safety record as well.

你會看到 Waymo 確實達到了這個目標，許多其他參與者也在努力提高他們的安全記錄並證明自己的安全記錄。

Third, you need a cost-effective hardware platform.

第三，需要一個高性價比的硬體平台。

Like the hardware platforms now, they cost hundreds of thousands of dollars.

就像現在的硬體平台一樣，它們的價格要數十萬美元。

You've got to get to the tens of thousands of dollars.

你必須獲得數萬美元。

There's a lot of work to be done to get there in many, many years to build out these scale hardware platforms.

要達到這個目標，還需要很多年的時間才能建構出這些規模的硬體平台。

Fourth, you need like first rate on-the-ground operations.

第四，你需要一流的實地行動。

This is what I was talking about before in terms of fleet, and recharging, and cleaning, and finding lost items, the millions of lost items we do every year.

這就是我之前談到的關於車隊、充電、清潔和尋找遺失物品的問題，我們每年都會處理數百萬件遺失的物品。

And then fifth, you need a high utilization network that can manage the variable demand every day on a seasonal basis with flexible supply as well, which we think our hybrid network is kind of the best solution there.

第五，你需要一個高利用率的網絡，它可以在季節性的基礎上管理每天變化的需求，並提供靈活的供應，我們認為我們的混合網絡是最好的解決方案。

You need all five to come together.

你們需要五個人齊心協力。

And we think the only way that all five could come together is Uber partnered up with the AV ecosystem.

我們認為，讓五大公司走到一起的唯一方法就是 Uber 與 AV 生態系統合作。

And we think we're kind of an indispensable part of again achieving all five and moving from a really, really cool, amazing technology to a really terrific scale business.

我們認為，我們是再次實現所有五個目標並將一項非常非常酷、令人驚嘆的技術轉變為一項真正了不起的規模業務的不可或缺的一部分。

Now I think that you're going to see lots of experimentation and AV players going direct, working with us, et cetera.

現在我認為你會看到大量的實驗和 AV 播放器直接與我們合作等等。

But especially, we're looking forward to our launches in Austin, Atlanta, where, I think, we're going to demonstrate pretty clearly that a combination of a great AV provider like Waymo and Uber is the best combination out there.

但尤其值得一提的是，我們期待在奧斯汀和亞特蘭大推出新產品，我認為，我們將在那裡非常清楚地證明，像 Waymo 和 Uber 這樣的優秀 AV 提供者的結合是最好的組合。

And I think this is going to apply in the US, it's going to apply all over the world.

我認為這將適用於美國，也適用於全世界。

So today, when you're in the tech development phase, yeah, in the US, you don't see too many players.

所以今天，當你處於技術發展階段時，是的，在美國，你看不到太多的參與者。

But by the time all five of these entities come together, regulatory, et cetera, which is going to be years from now, I think you're going to have a number of players getting to prime time both in the US and internationally.

但等到這五個實體聚集在一起，監管等等，那可能還需要幾年時間，我認為將會有許多參與者在美國和國際上進入黃金時段。

We think that's great for the ecosystem.

我們認為這對生態系統非常有益。

We think competition is great for the industry.

我們認為競爭對產業來說是件好事。

You're seeing with DeepSeek coming in and generative AI, like how exciting that competition is.

隨著 DeepSeek 和生成式人工智慧的出現，你會看到這場競賽有多令人興奮。

And we think the same thing that's happening in generative AI is happening in AV as well.

我們認為，生成式人工智慧中發生的事情也會在 AV 中發生。

You'll see it definitely in the US, and you're going to see it all over the world.

你肯定會在美國看到它，你也會在世界各地看到它。

Justin, I'll take the second part of that question, which I think was on putting our Q1 guide in perspective.

賈斯汀，我來回答這個問題的第二部分，我認為是從正確的角度看待我們的第一季指南。

So let's maybe start with a recap of Q4.

因此，讓我們先回顧一下第四季。

21% GB growth at constant currency year over year.

以固定匯率計算，英國年增 21%。

And now we have delivered 21% or four out of the last five quarters.

現在我們的目標達成率為 21%，即過去五個季度中有四個季度的目標達成率為。

And that growth continues to be led by audience, which is an impressive number when you think that we're adding roughly 20 million -- a little over 20 million actives even at the scale we have today.

這一增長繼續由觀眾推動，考慮到我們增加了約 2000 萬觀眾，這個數字令人印象深刻 - 即使按照我們今天的規模，活躍觀眾也略多於 2000 萬。

It's a great indicator of how the product continues to drive or get acceptance across the globe.

它是一個很好的指標，可以表明該產品在全球範圍內如何持續發展或獲得認可。

When you look at our Q1 guide, we outlined that it's going to be relatively similar to Q4 on an underlying basis, so that is 17% to 21% on FX-neutral GB growth and great leverage on that with about 33% at the midpoint for EBITDA.

當您查看我們的第一季指南時，我們概述了它在基本基礎上將與第四季度相對相似，因此在外匯中性英國增長的基礎上，增長率為 17% 至 21%，並且在此基礎上具有很大的槓桿作用，EBITDA 的中點約為 33%。

So I'll break down some elements of that GB growth to help put it in context.

因此，我將分解英國成長的一些要素，以幫助理解它的背景。

First, our guidance for the first quarter includes us overcoming some notable headwinds.

首先，我們對第一季的預期包括我們克服一些顯著的阻力。

First, we are lapping a leap year quarter from last year.

首先，我們與去年相比有一個閏年季度。

And in the Q1 guide, we've already incorporated the impact from the devastating fires in Los Angeles as well as some unusual weather patterns, particularly in the South, where there were some crazy snow that came through there, which did shut down a number of cities.

在第一季的指南中，我們已經考慮到了洛杉磯毀滅性火災以及一些異常天氣模式的影響，特別是南部地區出現的瘋狂降雪，導致一些城市停擺。

So just making those adjustments there, you can easily get to another 1 to 2 points of GB growth if you were to normalize for that.

因此，只要進行這些調整，如果要實現標準化，您就可以輕鬆獲得另外 1 到 2 個 GB 成長點。

Second, we've got the growth in Q1 again going to be led by audience, similar to what we saw in Q4.

其次，我們第一季的成長再次由觀眾推動，與第四季的情況類似。

So it's -- we probably see a little bit of a rinse and repeat in terms of the breakdown between audience and frequency in Q1 versus -- in comparison to Q4.

因此，與第四季度相比，我們可能會看到第一季的受眾和頻率之間的細分略有重複。

And third, where I'll spend a little more time just to help people understand, is how to think about foreign exchange within the context of Uber.

第三，我會花更多時間幫助人們理解如何在 Uber 的背景下思考外匯。

So we are expecting FX to be a larger top line headwind in Q1.

因此，我們預期外匯將成為第一季更大的營收阻力。

Think 5.5 percentage points of headwind, and that compares to closer to 3 points in Q4.

想想 5.5 個百分點的逆風，相較之下第四季的逆風接近 3 個百分點。

And about half of our GBs come from outside the US.

我們的 GB 中約有一半來自美國以外。

And then of those that are outside the US, Latin America, which is a sizable region, represents about one-fourth of our international GBs.

在美國以外的地區中，拉丁美洲是一個相當大的地區，約占我們國際GB的四分之一。

So now focusing specifically on Latin America, we had a number of countries that saw significant currency depreciation against the US dollar, notably Argentina, Mexico, and Brazil.

現在我們特別關注拉丁美洲，我們發現一些國家的貨幣兌美元大幅貶值，尤其是阿根廷、墨西哥和巴西。

And these are top 20 countries for us.

這些就是我們心目中排名前 20 的國家。

So we certainly feel the impact of them on the top line.

因此我們確實感受到了它們對營收的影響。

What is helpful for folks to remember with regards to Uber is while we price our trips or our orders in local currency, we also pay our drivers and merchants in local currency.

關於 Uber，大家需要記住的是，雖然我們用當地貨幣為我們的行程或訂單定價，但我們也用當地貨幣向我們的司機和商家付款。

So that creates a natural hedge, meaning that our profit exposure from those foreign currency fluctuations, they tend to be driven by those US dollar-denominated expenses which will be some of our tech organization, our G&A, and other US build cost structure.

這樣就形成了一種自然的對沖，這意味著我們從外匯波動中獲得的利潤往往是由以美元計價的支出所驅動的，這些支出將是我們的部分技術組織、我們的一般行政費用和其他美國建設成本結構。

So the way we sort of operate the company is that we will take FX on the top line, but as a management team, we do our best to absorb those impacts in the profit line, whether they be favorable or headwinds to us to kind of continue to drive the consistent margin expansion story that you've seen over the last couple of years.

因此，我們經營公司的方式是，我們將外匯作為營收的一部分，但作為管理團隊，我們會盡力吸收利潤中的影響，無論這些影響是有利的還是不利的，以繼續推動過去幾年持續的利潤率擴張。

And Justin, I just -- one comment for me.

賈斯汀，我只是想發表一個評論。

Listen, I think a lot of investors ask how long can Uber keep growing at the scale as fast as it does, and sometimes on planning time we do as well.

聽著，我認為很多投資人都會問 Uber 還能以現在的規模維持成長多久，有時在規劃時間上我們也會問這個問題。

I'll just remind you that our gross bookings growth rate this year actually accelerated over last year.

我只是想提醒你，我們今年的總預訂量成長率實際上比去年有所加快。

So this is a business that continues to surprise us pleasantly in terms of the runway ahead.

因此，從未來的發展來看，這是一項不斷帶給我們驚喜的業務。

Great.

偉大的。

Next question.

下一個問題。

Doug Anmuth, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的道格安穆斯 (Doug Anmuth)。

Great, thanks for taking the questions.

太好了，感謝您回答這些問題。

I have two.

我有兩個。

Dara, first, just following up on the AV commercialization challenges.

首先，Dara，我們來談談 AV 商業化面臨的挑戰。

Curious if there's anything additional you can share on your experience with Waymo in Phoenix in just how you're helping drive utilization and demand there in particular?

您是否可以分享更多與鳳凰城 Waymo 合作的經驗，尤其是您可以如何幫助推動那裡的利用率和需求？

And then, Prashanth, just given the healthier pricing backdrop in rides that we're seeing through '25, can you just talk about how you're thinking about sustainability of insurance costs and those slower insurance price increases through the year?

然後，Prashanth，鑑於我們在 25 年看到的更健康的乘車定價背景，您能否談談您如何看待保險成本的可持續性以及全年保險價格上漲放緩？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Absolutely.

絕對地。

So Doug, in terms of AV, the first thing that I would caution is that the scale of these AV deployments, both for us in Phoenix with Waymo and generally, are really, really small right now.

因此 Doug，就 AV 而言，我首先要提醒的是，這些 AV 部署的規模，無論是我們在鳳凰城的 Waymo 還是整體而言，目前都非常非常小。

For perspective, like our growth in San Francisco, Phoenix and LA in Q4 accelerated versus Q3.

從角度來看，我們第四季在舊金山、鳳凰城和洛杉磯的成長速度比第三季有所加快。

So just the numbers are really small, and it's very difficult to get patterning based on these smaller numbers.

所以這些數字真的很小，而且很難根據這些較小的數字來獲得模式。

Our very, very early experience in Phoenix suggests that -- and some of the other deployments that we've got suggests that the Uber network is able to drive significantly higher utilization versus any kind of first-party network could just because of the scale and the variability in terms of supply and demand in a particular market.

我們在鳳凰城的早期經驗表明 - 以及我們進行的一些其他部署表明，與任何類型的第一方網路相比，Uber 網路能夠實現更高的利用率，這僅僅是因為特定市場的規模和供需變化。

And the other pattern that we see is customers love the product.

我們看到的另一個現像是顧客喜愛該產品。

So the opt-in rate for customers the second time that they're offered an AV is significantly higher than the opt-in rate the first time.

因此，客戶第二次獲得 AV 的選擇加入率明顯高於第一次的選擇加入率。

So it's a great product, and you see that in terms of pricing.

所以這是一款很棒的產品，從定價就可以看出來。

You can actually price the product at a premium too, which is terrific.

你實際上也可以為產品定出更高的價格，這太棒了。

So those are very -- it's a great product, doesn't really have an effect on our overall business.

所以這些都是非常好的產品，並且不會對我們的整體業務產生任何影響。

We're able to drive really strong utilization.

我們能夠實現真正強大的利用率。

We are now preparing for some pretty big launches in the 10s going to the hundreds of vehicles later this year in Austin and Atlanta.

我們目前正在為今年稍後在奧斯汀和亞特蘭大舉行的一些相當大規模的發布會做準備，屆時將有數百輛汽車投入使用。

And we will have much, much more to tell you about the results there, and we're quite optimistic that the results are going to be quite strong.

我們將會告訴您更多關於那裡的結果的信息，我們非常樂觀地認為結果將會非常強勁。

Great.

偉大的。

The second question, Doug, on insurance.

第二個問題，道格，關於保險。

Let me -- maybe I'll start with a reminder that the US mobility business is required to carry insurance with liability coverage that is often usually much higher than what is required for other modes of passenger transportation.

讓我——也許我首先要提醒一下，美國的行動業務必須投保責任險，而這種保險的保額通常比其他客運方式的要求高得多。

And in some cases, it can be up to 50 times more coverage than what is required in a personal vehicle.

在某些情況下，其覆蓋範圍可比私人車輛所需覆蓋範圍高出 50 倍。

So it is a benefit that we provide to our drivers as part of being a contractor for Uber.

所以這是我們身為 Uber 承包商為司機提供的福利。

So at a macro level, we are pleased to see that the insurance pressure is easing.

所以從宏觀層面來看，我們很高興看到保險壓力正在緩解。

The consumer price index, motor vehicle insurance is now only growing at 11% year over year in December.

消費者物價指數、機車保險目前12月份年增僅11%。

It's still a big number, but it's down more than 50% from what we saw in April, where it peaked in the low 20%s.

這仍然是一個很大的數字，但與 4 月的峰值 20% 相比下降了 50% 以上。

So with the external headwinds peaking -- and we are also starting to see the benefits of all the internal initiatives that we've been driving, such as the tech innovation and policy work coming through.

因此，隨著外部逆風達到頂峰，我們也開始看到我們一直在推動的所有內部措施帶來的好處，例如技術創新和政策工作。

So our outlook now, and we might have signaled this last quarter and I think we have more confidence today than we did even in Q4, that the US mobility's insurance costs is likely to be high single digits on a per-trip basis in 2025, and that's meaningfully lower than we've seen for the last two years.

因此，我們現在的展望是，我們可能已經在上個季度暗示了這一點，而且我認為我們今天比第四季度更有信心，即到 2025 年，美國機動車的保險成本按每次出行計算可能會達到個位數的高位，這比我們過去兩年看到的要低得多。

It's coming from a couple of elements that we've talked about before.

它源自於我們之前討論過的幾個元素。

We've talked about tech, risk management, and regulatory.

我們討論了技術、風險管理和監管。

So let me just double-click on a couple of those.

讓我雙擊其中幾個。

On the tech side, last year, we were piloting, and we are now expanding to almost all of our US markets, a driver insights dashboard.

在技​​術方面，去年我們正在進行試點，現在我們正在將駕駛員洞察儀表板擴展到幾乎所有美國市場。

And this allows drivers to see more about their driving behavior.

這可以讓駕駛員更多地了解他們的駕駛行為。

And we're pulling data from their phone and the telemetrics on things like speeding, harsh braking, or accelerations, et cetera.

我們從他們的手機中提取數據，並進行遙測，了解超速、急煞車、加速等情況。

And it shows drivers how they can drive more safely to improve their driving score.

它還向駕駛員展示如何更安全地駕駛以提高他們的駕駛分數。

The -- what we're hearing from drivers is just the ability for them to see that information which were they were not aware of before is improving their behavior.

我們從司機那裡聽到的是，他們能夠看到以前不知道的訊息，從而改善他們的行為。

But to sort of encourage that improvement, we are also expanding the use of our advantage mode for drivers.

但為了促進這種改進，我們也在擴大駕駛優勢模式的使用範圍。

And this is where you can actually get higher earnings and better route matching opportunities if you have, among other things, a better driver of safety score.

如果您擁有更高的駕駛員安全評分，那麼您實際上可以獲得更高的收入和更好的路線匹配機會。

So encouraging -- giving them visibility to the score and then sort of encouraging the behavior we want through economics is going to continue to play out through the use of our tech.

非常令人鼓舞——讓他們了解分數，然後透過經濟學來鼓勵我們想要的行為，這將繼續透過使用我們的技術發揮作用。

On the management side, we've essentially finalized terms with all of our carriers on the insurance side and market pricing is stable.

在管理方面，我們基本上已經與保險方面的所有承運商敲定了條款，市場定價也穩定。

So we've got a much better view as we look into '25 of where that is.

所以當我們展望25年時，我們對這一點有了更清晰的認識。

And clearly having a captive insurance company and being able to offer to self-insure when we don't get the pricing we want continues to give us great leverage in those negotiations.

顯然，擁有一家自保保險公司並在我們得不到想要的價格時能夠提供自我保險，這繼續為我們在談判中提供巨大的籌碼。

And then lastly, a little bit longer cycle, but it's the regulatory work that were going on.

最後，週期會稍微長一點，但這是正在進行的監管工作。

And you probably see us out in the news in respective markets where we're creating a bit more attention on the need for insurance reform.

您可能在相應市場的新聞中看到我們，我們正在引起人們對保險改革必要性的更多關注。

On a state-by-state basis, we are starting to get progress in areas like Georgia, California, New Jersey with more to come.

從各州來看，我們已開始在喬治亞州、加州、新澤西州等地區取得進展，未來將有更多地區取得進展。

And just to clarify one of my earlier comments.

我只是想澄清我之前的一個評論。

The growth in San Francisco, Phoenix, and LA, comment that I made was for all of mobility, that mobility growth in Q4 over Q3 in those markets actually accelerated, our overall Mobility business, not just AV.

我對舊金山、鳳凰城和洛杉磯的成長的評論是針對所有行動業務的，這些市場第四季度的行動業務成長實際上比第三季度有所加速，這是我們的整體行動業務，而不僅僅是 AV。

Michael Morton, MoffettNathanson.

麥可莫頓，莫菲特納桑森。

Hey, thank you for the question and appreciate the new remarks on AVs.

嘿，感謝您的提問，並感謝您對 AV 的新評論。

If I could follow up on a question -- on a comment Dara made earlier in just general business models with AV.

如果我可以跟進一個問題——關於 Dara 之前就 AV 的一般商業模式所做的評論。

When you talk about securing supply from OEMs, are you speaking about Uber buying cars directly?

當您談到確保從 OEM 廠商獲得供應時，您是指 Uber 直接購買汽車嗎？

And then when you're thinking over the long term about potential business models with AVs, could you talk about an agency model versus a merchant model of renting AVs for today?

那麼，當您從長遠角度考慮 AV 的潛在商業模式時，您能談談目前租賃 AV 的代理模式與商家模式嗎？

And then a question we get from investors is, how much of your global mobility business do you see being addressable by autonomous vehicles due to different driver costs in certain markets compared to the AV costs?

然後投資人問我們的一個問題是，由於某些市場的駕駛成本與自動駕駛汽車成本不同，您認為全球移動出行業務中有多少可以由自動駕駛汽車佔據？

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Yeah, absolutely, Michael.

是的，當然，邁克爾。

So in terms of the business model, I think there are going to be ton of experimentation around the business models.

因此就商業模式而言，我認為將會進行大量的商業模式實驗。

I think early on, we've got a big balance sheet and we can buy cars.

我認為早期我們擁有龐大的資產負債表並且能夠購買汽車。

I think eventually, it's going to turn into the fleet partners that we have, essentially buying cars and getting financing from third parties that you see right now with electric vehicles.

我認為最終它將變成我們擁有的車隊合作夥伴，主要是購買汽車並從第三方獲得融資，就像現在的電動車一樣。

A lot of our fleet partners actually are able to finance these EVs, et cetera.

我們的許多車隊合作夥伴實際上都能夠為這些電動車等提供資金。

In the early days, you're not going to have kind of a financing construct in place and clarity regarding what residual values are for these cars.

在早期，你不會有某種融資結構，也不會清楚這些汽車的剩餘價值。

So I think that will put up some balance sheet risk.

所以我認為這會帶來一些資產負債表風險。

Our fleet partners will put up some balance sheet risk over a period of time.

我們的船隊合作夥伴在一段時間內會承擔一些資產負債表風險。

I think that most of the ownership will be a combination of fleet partners.

我認為大部分所有權將由船隊合作夥伴共同擁有。

You might see some financial players, kind of infrastructure players, just like they -- there are entities REITs that own hotels, you will have kind of fleet entities as well.

您可能會看到一些金融參與者、基礎設施參與者，就像他們一樣——有擁有酒店的房地產投資信託基金 (REIT) 實體，也會有車隊實體。

And then hopefully, there'll be some kind of individual ownership as well of people, small businesses putting up these cars and these fleets and taking care of the car, sort of small business fleets that, again, we see around the world for ourselves operating an SMB fleet model as well.

然後希望，也能出現某種形式的個人所有權，由小型企業來運營這些汽車和車隊並負責維護這些汽車，這種小型商業車隊，我們在世界各地也看到自己運營的是一種 SMB 車隊模式。

So there's going to be a ton of experimentation.

因此將會進行大量的實驗。

But early on, we will take some balance sheet risk in order to get -- catalyze the industry, so to speak.

但在早期，我們會承擔一些資產負債表風險，以便催化產業發展。

But ultimately, we think all of it is going to be financialized.

但最終，我們認為所有這些都將金融化。

In terms of AV, I think a couple of things in terms of the addressable market.

就 AV 而言，我認為有幾件事與潛在市場有關。

First of all, I think early on -- right now, the cost of AVs don't even come close to the cost of drivers.

首先，我認為從早期開始——目前，自動駕駛汽車的成本甚至還遠低於駕駛員的成本。

So I think the first markets that are going to be penetrated are going to depend on regulation first of all.

因此我認為，第一個要滲透的市場首先要依賴監管。

And again, the regulatory environment is pretty complicated.

而且，監管環境相當複雜。

And second is kind of the revenue per mile in the markets.

第二是市場每英哩的收入。

This would tend to be US markets or European markets where the revenue per mile is higher and will tend to be in the center of cities.

這往往是美國市場或歐洲市場，這些市場每英里的收入較高，而且往往位於城市中心。

The operational domain for many of these AV deployments is very, very limited.

許多此類 AV 部署的操作範圍非常非常有限。

And over a period of time is going to expand.

並且在一段時間內還會擴大。

So I think in the next five years, the addressable market is going to be probably in the order of 10% to 15% of the overall marketplace and then gradually is going to expand over a period of time over the next 15 years or so.

因此，我認為在未來五年內，潛在市場可能占到整個市場的 10% 到 15%，然後在未來 15 年左右的一段時間內逐漸擴大。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you, Michael.

謝謝你，麥可。

Sarah, we have time for one more question.

莎拉，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Nikhil Devnani, Bernstein.

尼基爾‧德夫納尼、伯恩斯坦。

Hi, thank you for taking the question.

你好，謝謝你回答這個問題。

Dara, last time you talked about price elasticity, and today, the letter talks about affordability.

達拉，上次您談到了價格彈性，而今天這封信談到了可負擔性。

And the Q1 EBITDA guide suggests it's starting to moderate that profit growth.

第一季的 EBITDA 指南顯示其利潤成長開始放緩。

First, how much of this EBITDA guide is impacted by FX?

首先，EBITDA 指引有多少是受到外匯的影響？

And then bigger picture, I guess, the skeptical take would be that pricing was a tailwind for the business for several years.

然後從更大的角度來看，我想，懷疑的人會認為定價在幾年內一直是業務的順風。

We're now hitting that ceiling.

我們現在正觸及這個上限。

And as you push more on affordability, it's going to be a headwind to margins going forward.

而且，隨著你越來越追求可負擔性，這將會成為未來利潤率的阻力。

So in your view, why is that not the right take?

那麼您認為這為什麼不是正確的做法呢？

How do you eventually get a good return on these lower-cost rides and drive operating leverage in the mobility business if you're leaning into that value proposition for consumers.

如果您傾向於為消費者提供這一價值主張，那麼您最終如何從這些低成本乘車服務中獲得良好的回報，並在行動業務中推動營運槓桿。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

Nikhil, why don't I just take the first part of it and let Dara take the longer part of it there.

尼基爾，我為什麼不只拍第一部分，讓達拉拍較長的部分呢？

I've mentioned -- I went through a little bit on the FX side and our philosophy on FX.

我提到過——我對外匯方面以及我們對外匯的理念進行了一些了解。

Clearly, the impact of foreign exchange and the profits that we collect in those foreign jurisdictions when they come back to the US are worth less.

顯然，外匯的影響以及我們在這些外國司法管轄區收取的利潤回到美國時的價值就會減少。

And with more than half of our business outside the US, there is an impact there.

由於我們的一半以上的業務都在美國以外，所以這會產生影響。

We have chosen not to pass that volatility on to investors.

我們選擇不將這種波動轉嫁給投資者。

We find ways to manage that, whether it be good news or bad news, within the company using the levers that we have.

我們利用公司內部現有的手段，找到管理這些消息的方法，無論是好消息或壞消息。

And sort of that's been the philosophy of the company.

這正是公司的理念。

We talked about that in the prepared remarks.

我們在準備好的發言中討論了這一點。

So it is not a zero impact.

所以它並不是零影響。

It certainly weighs on the business.

這無疑會給業務帶來壓力。

But for your modeling purposes, you should think of FX as a top line impact and leave it to the management team in both good days and bad days to do what we can to show steady margin improvement regardless of FX.

但出於建模目的，您應該將外匯視為對營業收入的影響，並讓管理團隊在好日子和壞日子裡盡我們所能，無論外匯如何，都顯示出穩定的利潤率改善。

Yeah.

是的。

Nikhil, I would say in terms of pricing, whether it's a tailwind or a headwind, I'd just say that the vast majority of pricing that we have taken in the market has been in the US.

尼基爾，我想說，就定價而言，無論是順風還是逆風，我只想說，我們在市場上採取的絕大多數定價都在美國。

And the vast majority of that price increase has been pass-along cost of insurance.

而價格上漲的絕大部分都轉嫁到了保險成本上。

So it shows up in gross bookings, It shows up in costs.

所以它會顯示在總預訂量中，也會顯示在成本中。

And that part of the price increase is ultimately economically neutral.

而這部分價格上漲最終對經濟來說是中性的。

We've always believed in kind of a model where we build out premium products.

我們始終堅信打造高端產品的模式。

So this is our U4B product, which is a highly premium reserve products as well for U4B.

這是我們的 U4B 產品，對於 U4B 來說，它是一款非常優質的儲備產品。

We introduced Business Black as well and using the higher margin of the premium process to fund the lower-cost products like UberX Share and Shuttle, et cetera, taxi, two-wheelers, three-wheelers.

我們也推出了 Business Black，並利用保費流程的更高利潤來資助低成本產品，例如 UberX Share 和 Shuttle 等計程車、兩輪車、三輪車。

And I think we've been able to consistently demonstrate in the past the ability to balance topline growth and bottom-line growth.

我認為，我們過去已經能夠持續展現平衡營收成長和獲利成長的能力。

And that's our expectation going forward.

這正是我們未來的期望。

And I would tell you that today, we talked about that three-year guidance in terms of mid- to high teens topline and then a bottom line of in the 30%s to 40% growth.

我想告訴大家，今天我們談論的是三年預期，即營收達到中高水平，利潤達到 30% 到 40% 的成長。

We are more confident than ever that we can meet that guideline in almost any pricing environment.

我們比以往任何時候都更有信心，我們可以在幾乎任何定價環境中滿足該準則。

But kind of the way that we run the company is to run it for both top and bottom line.

但我們經營公司的方式是同時追求營收和利潤。

And I think you'll see us continue to deliver on both of those going forward.

我想你會看到我們在未來繼續實現這兩個目標。

Thanks, Nikhil.

謝謝，尼基爾。

Before we wrap up here, I wanted to share some news.

在我們結束之前，我想分享一些新聞。

After nearly six action-packed years, Deepa has decided to leave Uber.

經過近六年的忙碌工作後，Deepa 決定離開 Uber。

Today is going to be her last day with us.

今天將是她和我們在一起的最後一天。

So on behalf of Dara, the leadership team and the global financial work, I do want to thank Deepa for her many contributions to Uber and wish her all the best in her next challenge.

因此，我謹代表 Dara、領導團隊和全球財務工作，感謝 Deepa 為 Uber 做出的諸多貢獻，並祝福她在接下來的挑戰中一切順利。

Balaji Krishnamurthy, who many of you know well, is going to step in to lead IR in addition to his existing role, managing the strategic finance team.

你們許多人都熟悉的 Balaji Krishnamurthy 除了將擔任現有職務管理策略財務團隊之外，還將接任 IR 負責人。

So apology will be joining you for the Q4 call back this morning, along with Alex and the IR team.

因此，Aplog 將與 Alex 和 IR 團隊一起參加今天早上的 Q4 回電。

This quarter, we are going to be in New York, Chicago, San Francisco, Orlando, and Boston.

本季度，我們將前往紐約、芝加哥、舊金山、奧蘭多和波士頓。

So please reach out to Alex of the IR team if you're looking to see us in any of those cities.

因此，如果您希望在上述任何一個城市見到我們，請聯絡 IR 團隊的 Alex。

And then just to close, I want to thank the Uber team for all their great work in 2024, and thank you for joining us this morning.

最後，我要感謝 Uber 團隊在 2024 年所做的一切出色工作，也感謝大家今天早上加入我們的行列。

This concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for joining.

感謝您的加入。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。