CVR Partners LP (UAN) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Greetings and welcome to the CVR Partners Third quarter 2025 conference call.

    各位朋友,歡迎參加 CVR Partners 2025 年第三季電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作說明)

  • It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Richard Roberts, Vice President of FP&A and investor relations.

    現在,我很高興向大家介紹主持人理查德·羅伯茨,他是財務規劃與分析及投資者關係副總裁。

  • Thank you, sir. You may begin.

    謝謝您,先生。你可以開始了。

  • Richard Roberts - Vice President of FP&A and Investor Relations

    Richard Roberts - Vice President of FP&A and Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Eric. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate your participation in today's call. With me today are Mark Pytosh, our Chief Executive Officer, Dane Neumann, our Chief Financial Officer, and other members of management.

    謝謝你,埃里克。各位早安。感謝您參加今天的電話會議。今天陪同我的有我們的執行長馬克·皮托什、財務長丹·諾伊曼以及其他管理層成員。

  • Prior to discussing our 2025 third quarter results, let me remind you that this conference call may contain forward-looking statements, as that term is defined under Federal securities laws. For this purpose, any statements made during this call that are not statements of historical facts may be deemed to be forward-looking statements. You are cautioned that these statements may be affected by important factors set forth in our filings of the Securities and Exchange Commission and in our latest earnings release. As a result, actual operations or results may differ materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, except to the extent required by law.

    在討論我們 2025 年第三季業績之前,請允許我提醒各位,本次電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述,該術語的定義見聯邦證券法。為此,本次電話會議中任何非歷史事實的陳述均可被視為前瞻性陳述。請注意,這些聲明可能會受到我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件以及我們最新的收益報告中列出的重要因素的影響。因此,實際營運或結果可能與前瞻性聲明中討論的結果有重大差異。除法律要求外,我們不承擔因新資訊、未來事件或其他原因而公開更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

  • This call also includes various non-GAAP financial measures. The disclosures was to such non-GAAP measures, including reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures, are included in our 2025 3 quarter earnings release that we filed with the SEC for the period.

    本次電話會議也涉及各種非GAAP財務指標。有關此類非GAAP指標的揭露,包括與最直接可比較的GAAP財務指標的調節,均包含在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的2025年第三季財報中。

  • Let me also remind you that we are a variable distribution MLP. We will review our previously established reserves, current cash usage, evaluate future anticipated cash needs, and may reserve amounts for other future cash needs as determined by our general partners board. As a result, our distributions, if any, will vary from quarter to quarter due to several factors, including but not limited to operating performance, fluctuations in the prices received for finished products, capital expenditures, and cash reserves deemed necessary or appropriate by the board of directors of our general partner.

    另外,我還要提醒各位,我們是一個可變分佈的多層感知器。我們將審查我們先前建立的儲備金、目前的現金使用情況,評估未來預期的現金需求,並可能根據普通合夥人董事會的決定,為其他未來的現金需求預留資金。因此,由於多種因素的影響,包括但不限於經營業績、成品價格波動、資本支出以及我們普通合夥人董事會認為必要或適當的現金儲備,我們的分紅(如有)將逐季度變化。

  • With that said, I'll turn the call over to Mark Pytosh, our Chief Executive Officer, Mark.

    接下來,我將把電話交給我們的執行長馬克·皮托什。

  • Mark A. Pytosh - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Mark A. Pytosh - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Richard. Good morning everyone and thank you for joining us for today's call.

    謝謝你,理查。各位早安,感謝各位參加今天的電話會議。

  • The summarized financial highlights for the third quarter of 2025 include net sales of $164 million net income of $43 million, EBTA of $71 million and the board of directors declared a third quarter distribution of $4.02 per common unit, which will be paid on November 17th to unit holders a record at the close of the market on November 10th.

    2025 年第三季財務亮點摘要包括:淨銷售額 1.64 億美元,淨收入 4,300 萬美元,EBTA 為 7,100 萬美元。董事會宣布第三季每普通單位發放 4.02 美元的股息,將於 11 月 17 日支付給單位持有人,股權登記日為 11 月 10 日市場收盤日。

  • For the third quarter of 2025, our consolidated ammonia plant utilization was 95%, which was impacted by some planned and unplanned downtime at both facilities during the quarter.

    2025 年第三季度,我們的綜合氨廠利用率為 95%,這受到該季度兩家工廠計劃內和計劃外停機時間的影響。

  • Combined ammonia production for the third quarter of 2025 was 208,000 gross tons, of which 59,000 net tons were available for sale, and UAN production was 337,000 tons. During the quarter, we sold approximately 328,000 tons of UAN at an average price of $348 per ton and approximately 48,000 tons of ammonia and an average price of $531 per ton.

    2025 年第三季氨總產量為 208,000 噸,其中淨產量為 59,000 噸可供銷售,尿素硝銨溶液 (UAN) 產量為 337,000 噸。本季度,我們售出了約 328,000 噸尿素硝銨溶液 (UAN),平均價格為每噸 348 美元;售出了約 48,000 噸氨,平均價格為每噸 531 美元。

  • Relative to the third quarter of 2024, sales volumes were down slightly, primarily as a result of low inventory levels at the end of the second quarter following the strong demand in the first half of 2025.

    與 2024 年第三季相比,銷售量略有下降,這主要是由於 2025 年上半年強勁的需求導致第二季末庫存水準較低。

  • UAN and ammonia prices increased 52% and 33% respectively from the prior year period, driven by tight inventory levels across the system as a result of elevated demand and reduced supply associated with domestic and international production outages.

    受國內外生產中斷導致需求上升和供應減少的影響,整個系統的庫存水準趨緊,尿素硝銨溶液 (UAN) 和氨的價格分別比去年同期上漲了 52% 和 33%。

  • Overall, we had a strong third quarter with UAN pricing above levels we saw in the spring, and we believe the setup is favorable for the remainder of the year and into the first half of 2026. Domestic and global inventories of nitrogen fertilizer remain tight, and that has been supportive of higher prices, which I will discuss further in my closing remarks. I will now turn the call over to Dane to discuss our financial results.

    總體而言,我們第三季表現強勁,UAN 定價高於春季的水平,我們相信這種局面有利於今年剩餘時間以及 2026 年上半年的發展。國內外氮肥庫存依然緊張,這支撐了氮肥價格上漲,我將在總結發言中進一步討論這一點。現在我將把電話交給 Dane,讓他來討論我們的財務表現。

  • Dane J. Neumann - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Assistant Secretary

    Dane J. Neumann - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Assistant Secretary

  • Thank you, Mark. For the third quarter of 2025, we reported net sales of $164 million and operating income of $51 million. That income for the quarter was $43 million and $0.04 dollars $0.08 per common unit, and even the dollar was $71 million.

    謝謝你,馬克。2025 年第三季度,我們報告淨銷售額為 1.64 億美元,營業收入為 5,100 萬美元。該季度營收為 4,300 萬美元,每普通單位 0.04 美元(即 0.08 美元),以美元計算為 7,100 萬美元。

  • Relative to the third quarter of 2024, the increase in EBITDA was primarily due to a combination of higher UAN and ammonia sales pricing.

    與 2024 年第三季相比,EBITDA 的成長主要是由於尿素硝銨溶液和氨的銷售價格上漲所致。

  • Direct operating expenses for the 3rd quarter of 2025 or $58 million excluding inventory impacts. Direct operating expenses increased by approximately $7 million relative to the 3rd quarter of 2024, primarily due to higher natural gas and electricity costs and some preliminary spending associated with Coffeeville's planned turnaround.

    2025 年第三季直接營運費用為 5,800 萬美元,不包括庫存影響。與 2024 年第三季相比,直接營運支出增加了約 700 萬美元,主要原因是天然氣和電力成本上漲以及與 Coffeeville 計劃的改造相關的一些前期支出。

  • During the third quarter of 2025, we spent $13 million on capital projects, of which $7 million was made as capital.

    2025 年第三季度,我們在資本項目上花費了 1,300 萬美元,其中 700 萬美元為資本支出。

  • We estimate total capital spending for 2025 will be approximately $58million to $65 million of which $39million to $42 million is expected to be maintenance capital.

    我們預計 2025 年的總資本支出約為 5,800 萬美元至 6,500 萬美元,其中 3,900 萬美元至 4,200 萬美元預計將是維護資本。

  • We anticipate a significant portion of the profit and growth capital spending plan for 2025 will be funded through cash reserves taken over the past two years.

    我們預計 2025 年利潤和成長資本支出計畫的很大一部分將透過過去兩年提取的現金儲備來提供資金。

  • We ended the quarter with total liquidity of $206 million which consisted of $156 million in cash and availability under the EBL facility of $50 million.

    本季末,我們的總流動資金為 2.06 億美元,其中包括 1.56 億美元的現金和 EBL 貸款額度下的 5,000 萬美元可用資金。

  • Within our cash balance of $156 million, we had approximately $28 million related to customer prepayments for the future delivery of product.

    在我們1.56億美元的現金餘額中,約有2,800萬美元是客戶預付的未來產品款項。

  • In assessing our cash available for distribution, we generated EBITDA of approximately $71 million and net cash needs of $34 million for interest costs, maintenance CapEx, and other reserves.

    在評估可供分配的現金時,我們產生了約 7,100 萬美元的 EBITDA,淨現金需求為 3,400 萬美元,用於支付利息成本、維護性資本支出和其他儲備金。

  • And had $6 million released from previous reserves. As a result, there was $42 million of cash available for distribution, and the board of directors of our general partner required a distribution of $4.02 per common unit.

    此外,也從先前的儲備金中釋放了600萬美元。因此,有 4,200 萬美元現金可供分配,而我們普通合夥人的董事會要求每份普通股分配 4.02 美元。

  • Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2025, we estimate our ammonia utilization rate to be between 80% and 85%, which will be impacted by the planned turnaround currently underway at the Coffeyville facility.

    展望 2025 年第四季度,我們預計氨利用率將在 80% 至 85% 之間,這將受到科菲維爾工廠目前正在進行的計劃檢修的影響。

  • We expect direct operating expenses, excluding inventory and turnaround impacts to be between $58million and $63 million and total capital spending to be between $30million and $35 million.

    我們預計,不包括庫存和周轉影響在內的直接營運費用將在 5,800 萬美元至 6,300 萬美元之間,總資本支出將在 3,000 萬美元至 3,500 萬美元之間。

  • Turnaround expense is expected to be between $15million and $29 million.

    預計整改費用在 1500 萬美元至 2900 萬美元之間。

  • With that, I will turn the call back over to Mark.

    這樣,我就把電話轉回馬克了。

  • Mark A. Pytosh - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Mark A. Pytosh - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Dane. Harvest is currently on schedule and nearing completion. The USDA is estimating yields of approximately 187 bushels per acre on 98.7 million acres of corn and inventory carryout levels of approximately 13%. Soybean yields are estimated to be 54 bushels per acre on 81 million acres planted with inventory carryout levels of 7%. Although the soybean numbers will likely be impacted by ongoing trade friction with China.

    謝謝你,丹恩。目前收割工作正按計畫進行,即將完成。美國農業部估計,9,870萬英畝玉米的產量約為每英畝187蒲式耳,庫存結轉水準約為13%。大豆種植面積達 8,100 萬英畝,預計每英畝產量為 54 蒲式耳,庫存結轉水準為 7%。儘管大豆產量可能會受到與中國持續貿易摩擦的影響。

  • Both of these carryout estimates are at or below the 10 year averages. Grain prices have remained at the lower end of the last 12 month range, driven primarily by expectations of large crop production in Brazil and North America this year and potential trade disputes where the purchase of grains may be used as a negotiating tool in reaching trade agreements.

    這兩項實際產量預估均等於或低於 10 年平均值。糧食價格一直處於過去 12 個月區間的低位,這主要是由於預計今年巴西和北美將迎來豐收,以及潛在的貿易爭端,在這些爭端中,購買糧食可能被用作達成貿易協議的談判工具。

  • December corn prices are approximately $4.30 a bushel, and November soybeans are approximately $10.90 per bushel.

    12 月玉米價格約為每蒲式耳 4.30 美元,11 月大豆價格約為每蒲式耳 10.90 美元。

  • The Trump administration and congressional leaders have indicated they intend to provide a subsidy program for farmers to help offset lower grain prices and higher input costs.

    川普政府和國會領導人已表示,他們打算為農民提供補貼計劃,以幫助抵消糧食價格下跌和投入成本上漲的影響。

  • Geopolitical conflicts are continuing to impact the nitrogen fertilizer industry. In the third quarter, Ukraine continued to target nitrogen fertilizer plants and export infrastructure in Russia. After the large planting seasons in the US and Brazil and the loss of production due to geopolitical factors, fertilizer inventory levels across the industry have been tight and are taking time to replenish. We expect these these conditions to persist into the spring of 2026. The wildcard continues to be the potential for tariffs on Russian fertilizer imports that could have significant impacts on pricing in the near term.

    地緣政治衝突持續影響氮肥產業。第三季度,烏克蘭繼續以俄羅斯的氮肥廠和出口基礎設施為目標。由於美國和巴西的大規模播種季以及地緣政治因素造成的產量損失,整個產業的化肥庫存水準一直很緊張,需要時間才能補充。我們預計這些情況將持續到 2026 年春季。最大的變數仍然是俄羅斯化肥進口可能被徵收關稅,這可能會在短期內對價格產生重大影響。

  • Natural gas prices in Europe have been steady since our last earnings call and remaining around $11 per MMBTU currently, while US prices continue to range between $3 and $4 dollars per MMBTU.

    自上次財報電話會議以來,歐洲天然氣價格一直保持穩定,目前約為每百萬英熱單位 11 美元,而美國天然氣價格繼續在每百萬英熱單位 3 至 4 美元之間波動。

  • As we near winter, Europe has refilled its natural gas inventories at a lower level than normal, and there's a risk of prices moving higher if the winter is cooler than expected.

    隨著冬季臨近,歐洲的天然氣庫存補充量低於正常水平,如果冬季氣溫低於預期,價格可能會上漲。

  • The cost of producing ammonia in Europe has remained durably at the high end of the global cost curve, and production remains below historical levels, which has created opportunities for US Gulf Coast producers to export ammonia to Europe for upgrade.

    歐洲氨的生產成本長期處於全球成本曲線的高端,而產量仍低於歷史水平,這為美國墨西哥灣沿岸的生產商創造了向歐洲出口氨進行升級的機會。

  • We continue to believe Europe faces structural natural gas supply issues that will likely remain in effect through 2026.

    我們仍然認為歐洲面臨天然氣供應結構性問題,這些問題可能會持續到 2026 年。

  • We are nearing the completion of the planned turnaround at our Coffeeville facility. In the early phases of the turnaround, we experienced an ammonia release which we currently anticipate could delay the completion of turnaround work by a few days relative to the original schedule.

    我們位於科菲維爾的工廠的計畫檢修工作即將完成。在檢修初期,我們遇到了氨氣洩漏,目前預計這可能會使檢修工作的完成時間比原計劃推遲幾天。

  • We expect the facility to resume full production in the next few weeks. As a reminder, we're currently planning for a 35 day turnaround at our East Butte facility in the third quarter of 2026.

    我們預計該工廠將在未來幾週內恢復全面生產。再次提醒大家,我們目前計劃在 2026 年第三季對位於東巴特的工廠進行為期 35 天的檢修。

  • At our Coffeeville facility, we continue to work on a detailed design and construction plan to allow the plant to utilize natural gas and additional hydrogen from the adjacent Coffeeville refinery as alternative feedstocks to third-party pet coke.

    在我們的科菲維爾工廠,我們繼續制定詳細的設計和施工計劃,以便該工廠能夠利用天然氣和來自鄰近科菲維爾煉油廠的額外氫氣作為第三方石油焦的替代原料。

  • This project could also expand quality bill's ammonia production capacity by up to 8%.

    該項目還可以將品質法案的氨生產能力提高 8%。

  • We also continue to execute certainty bottlenecking projects at both plants that are expected to improve reliability and production rates. These include water quality upgrade projects in both plants and the expansion of our DF production and loadout capacity.

    我們也將繼續在兩家工廠執行確保生產可靠性和提高生產率的瓶頸消除項目。其中包括兩家工廠的水質升級項目,以及擴大我們的DF生產和裝載能力。

  • The goal of these projects is to support our target of operating the plants at utilization rates above 95% of nameplate capacity, excluding the impact of turnarounds.

    這些項目的目標是支持我們實現工廠利用率超過額定產能 95% 的目標,不包括檢修的影響。

  • The funds needed for these projects are coming from the reserves taken over the last 2 years and the board elected to continue reserving capital in the third quarter.

    這些項目所需的資金來自過去兩年提取的儲備金,董事會決定在第三季繼續提取資金。

  • While the board looks at reserves every quarter, I would expect them to continue to do like to reserve some capital, and we anticipate holding higher levels of cash related to these projects in the near term as we ramp up execution and spending, which we expect will take place over the next 2 to 3 years.

    雖然董事會每季都會審查儲備金,但我預計他們會繼續保留一些資金,而且我們預計在短期內,隨著我們加快執行和支出(預計這將在未來 2 到 3 年內發生),我們將持有與這些項目相關的較高水平的現金。

  • The third quarter continued to demonstrate the benefits of focusing on safe, safety, reliability, and performance. In the quarter we executed on all the critical elements of our business plan, which includes safely and reliable reliably operating our plants with a keen focus on the health and safety of our employees, contractors, and communities, prudently managing costs, being judicious with capital, maximizing our marketing and logistics capabilities, and targeting opportunities to reduce our carbon footprint.

    第三季繼續證明了注重安全、可靠性和性能所帶來的益處。本季度,我們執行了業務計劃的所有關鍵要素,包括安全可靠地運營工廠,高度重視員工、承包商和社區的健康與安全,謹慎管理成本,合理使用資金,最大限度地發揮營銷和物流能力,並尋找機會減少碳足跡。

  • In closing, I would like to thank our employees for their safe execution during a few brief outages in the quarter, achieving 95% ammonia utilization and the solid delivery on our marketing and logistics plans, resulting in a distribution of $4.02 per common unit for the third quarter.

    最後,我要感謝我們的員工在本季度幾次短暫的停工期間安全執行,實現了 95% 的氨利用率,並切實執行了我們的營銷和物流計劃,使得第三季度每單位普通股分紅達到 4.02 美元。

  • With that, we're ready to answer any questions, Eric.

    這樣一來,我們就可以回答任何問題了,艾瑞克。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作說明)

  • Rob McGuire with Granite Research.

    Rob McGuire,來自 Granite Research。

  • Rob McGuire - Analyst

    Rob McGuire - Analyst

  • Did you, Mark, go back to the Coffeeville natural gas feedstock project? I apologize, but can you just, I think I missed. When do you anticipate that to start, and are you at a point where you can talk to us about total cost for the project and what you expect in terms of returns?

    馬克,你有沒有回到科菲維爾天然氣原料計畫?抱歉,但我好像錯過了什麼。您預計何時開始?現在您可以和我們討論專案的總成本以及您預期的回報嗎?

  • Mark A. Pytosh - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Mark A. Pytosh - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • I'm not ready to talk about, finalizing the final cost and returns yet.

    我目前還不方便討論最終的成本和效益問題。

  • We're in detailed engineering, so we need to kind of confirm some things about that, in terms of configuration or reconfiguration and the infrastructure needs, but everything looks like it's kind of penciling out the way we thought it would.

    我們正在進行詳細的工程設計,所以我們需要確認一些關於配置或重新配置以及基礎設施需求方面的事情,但一切看起來都和我們預想的差不多。

  • And it's a combination project to be clear, part of it is taking additional hydrogen from the refinery. The refinery has a reformer unit, so we are talking about taking additional hydrogen from the refinery plus replacing potentially replacing petcoke as a feedstock for a portion with natural gas, but the hydrogen component would be an increase in our production capacity. So it's a combination project that includes the ability to replace feedstock plus bring additional hydrogen, which means additional ammonia capacity that's what I've been referring to in my comments about, up to 8% increase in our production capacity. So we have been reserving for that project and so. We will have the capital available set aside for that, and I'm expecting, by the next call, to be able to talk with more specifics on, that project and moving ahead there. But so far all the engineering work that's coming back and the construction plans look, on track with what we thought, what the original plan was.

    需要明確的是,這是一個綜合項目,其中一部分是從煉油廠獲得額外的氫氣。煉油廠有一套重整裝置,所以我們正在討論從煉油廠獲取額外的氫氣,並有可能用天然氣取代一部分石油焦作為原料,但氫氣部分將增加我們的產能。所以這是一個綜合項目,它不僅能夠取代原料,還能帶來額外的氫氣,這意味著額外的氨產能,這就是我在評論中提到的,我們的產能最多可以提高 8%。所以我們一直在為那個專案預留資金等等。我們會為此預留資金,我預計在下次電話會議上,能夠就該項目及其推進情況進行更詳細的討論。但到目前為止,所有返回的工程數據和施工計劃看起來都和我們預想的一樣,與最初的計劃相符。

  • Rob McGuire - Analyst

    Rob McGuire - Analyst

  • And shifting gears, any concerns about drought conditions impacting ammonia runs in this ammonia application season?

    換個話題,您認為乾旱情況是否會影響本氨施用季的氨氣施用量?

  • Mark A. Pytosh - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Mark A. Pytosh - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Not in the markets where we're placed. We've had some moisture here in the last week, particularly on the big ammonia run for us is up in the northern plains around East Dubuque, and there was, there's been moisture.

    在我們所在的市場並非如此。過去一週我們這裡下了一些雨,特別是我們這裡氨氣產量較大的地區,位於東迪比克附近的北部平原,那裡確實下了一些雨。

  • So I actually I think conditions are as close to perfect as we could predict.

    所以我覺得,實際情況其實已經非常接近我們所能預期的完美狀態了。

  • Because we've had, the harvest is basically complete there, so we've emptied the fields. The soil temperatures are down and moisture has come in the last week, and that combination is about perfect conditions, and I'm expecting a big fall ammonia run, the customers are telling us that we have a good book of business already, but people are coming in now with additional cash orders. And so I expect a really a good ball ammonia run, so I'm very optimistic.

    因為那裡的收割工作基本上已經完成,所以我們已經把田地清空了。土壤溫度下降,過去一周水分充足,這種組合堪稱完美條件,我預計秋季氨氣需求量會很大,客戶告訴我們,我們已經有很多訂單了,但現在又有人帶著額外的現金訂單來下單。所以我預計氨球會跑得很好,我非常樂觀。

  • Rob McGuire - Analyst

    Rob McGuire - Analyst

  • Just moving forward to that question, it's just how significant of an impact do you think it'll be for the acreage to be down this coming season, at least on anticipated acreage, and is it simply that inventories are down, supply is tight, so you're not concerned at all about selling your volume at elevated prices, or will it be an impact maybe even on imports?

    接下來,我想問的是,您認為下個季度的種植面積下降會對預期種植面積造成多大的影響?是因為庫存下降、供應緊張,所以您完全不擔心以高價出售您的產量,還是會對進口產生影響?

  • Mark A. Pytosh - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Mark A. Pytosh - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • So there's a couple different layers to that. The answer to that. Number one, we've been expecting it, but we were thinking that the acreage, corn acreage, just as corn acreage would drop next year.

    所以這裡面麵包含好幾個不同的層面。答案是…第一,我們一直在預料到這種情況,但我們原本以為玉​​米種植面積會像明年玉米種植面積下降一樣。

  • I'm not as sure now based on, I'm still reading what happened this morning over in Korea with Trump and Xi, but the feeling in the marketplace is that the corn acreage won't drop as much because there's concern about what is the, what are the end markets for soybeans, and so maybe there's going to be more corn acres just on a defensive approach to protect against trade war behavior. And so I actually think that the corn acreage might surprise on the upside versus, a drop, a lot of people were talking about dropped to the low 90s.

    我現在不太確定了,我還在關註今天早上川普和習近平在韓國發生的事情,但市場普遍認為玉米種植面積不會大幅下降,因為人們擔心大豆的最終市場在哪裡,所以玉米種植面積可能會增加,這是一種防禦性措施,旨在防範貿易戰行為。因此,我認為玉米種植面積可能會出乎意料地增加,而不是像許多人所說的那樣下降到 90% 左右。

  • Which is still great, that's a great corn run, but it may not drop as far because I think farmers are of the belief that maybe the end markets will be restricted for soybean exports. So we may end up with a better answer there. I would tell you that, if you look at the inventory balances, we, we're already, we're tight and I think, lower acreage. Given where we are from an inventory perspective, probably won't impact as much in 2026 as it normally would because quite frankly, there's a rush to try to replenish what we have and you probably saw the announcement that Nutrient has shut down one of the Trinidad plants, which is an importer to the US. And so that's going to affect the replenishment time frame. So I'm not terribly concerned about the acreage. We watch it closely, but right now I think the market is in a position to absorb that.

    這仍然是件好事,玉米價格大幅上漲,但價格可能不會下跌那麼多,因為我認為農民認為大豆出口的終端市場可能會受到限制。所以我們或許能在那裡找到更好的答案。我想告訴你,如果你看一下庫存餘額,我們,我們已經很緊張了,而且我認為,種植面積也減少了。鑑於我們目前的庫存狀況,2026 年可能不會像往常那樣產生太大影響,因為坦白說,大家都在爭分奪秒地補充庫存,而且你可能已經看到 Nutrient 公司關閉了其位於特立尼達的一家工廠的公告,該工廠是美國的進口商。因此,這將影響補貨時間。所以我並不太擔心土地面積。我們會密切關注,但目前我認為市場有能力消化這些影響。

  • Rob McGuire - Analyst

    Rob McGuire - Analyst

  • But that's really interesting. And then with regards to the Trinidad and it's just looping Russia on imports, are you seeing an impact in the marketplace on those imports at this point in time?

    但這真的很有意思。至於特立尼達和多巴哥,以及它與俄羅斯之間的進口循環,您目前是否看到這些進口對市場產生了影響?

  • Mark A. Pytosh - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Mark A. Pytosh - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • We have not seen any impact on Russian imports. In fact, Russia is the, in particularly like in UAN. Russia is the marginal producer in the marketplace, and they've been exporting the US in size, so there's been no effect. The fear factor in the market is if there's somehow a tariff or sanctioning of fertilizer coming to the market that could be a big event from, affecting supply so that's a fear factor, but we haven't seen any signs, but during the course of this year, even with all the Geopolitical events. There's been no restriction on the imports of Russian, and I'll focus more on UAN, but there's Urea too, but Russian UAN has been a big factor in the US.

    我們尚未看到對俄羅斯進口的任何影響。事實上,俄羅斯尤其像UAN那樣。俄羅斯是市場上的邊緣生產國,而且其出口規模一直超過美國,因此沒有受到影響。市場上的擔憂在於,如果化學肥料受到關稅或製裁,可能會對市場造成重大影響,影響供應,因此這是一個令人擔憂的因素。但我們尚未看到任何跡象,但在今年發生的所有這些地緣政治事件中,情況依然如此。俄羅斯的進口並沒有受到任何限制,我將重點放在尿素硝銨溶液(UAN),但尿素也是其中之一,不過俄羅斯的尿素硝銨溶液(UAN)在美國一直是重要因素。

  • Rob McGuire - Analyst

    Rob McGuire - Analyst

  • And Mark, last question, and I certainly won't hold you to this, but I'd love to hear what your outlook is for the price of ammonia UAN and urea heading into fourth quarter.

    馬克,最後一個問題,我當然不會以此為準,但我很想聽聽你對第四季氨、尿素硝銨溶液和尿素價格的展望。

  • Mark A. Pytosh - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Mark A. Pytosh - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • We never give out pricing for the, for those products, but it's going to be a solid quarter, and so, we've seen a strong market since, the UA and field season and the ammonia pre-pay. So, pricing will be higher in the fourth quarter versus 3Q, which is, normally would be, so we're, we'll see that show up in the in the results, and I'm optimistic. I'm not ready to prognosticate on pricing for spring, but I'm optimistic about the supply demand balance and what we're going to see there. So I expect this kind of these sorts of market conditions to carry through the first half of 2026.

    我們從未公佈這些產品的價格,但這將是一個穩健的季度,因此,自從 UA 和田間作業季以及氨預付款以來,我們看到了強勁的市場。因此,第四季度的價格將高於第三季度,這很正常,所以我們會在業績中看到這一點,我對此持樂觀態度。我目前還無法預測春季的價格走勢,但我對供需平衡以及我們將看到的市場前景持樂觀態度。所以我預計這種類型的市場狀況將持續到 2026 年上半年。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I'd now like to turn the floor back over to management for closing comments.

    謝謝。問答環節到此結束。現在我想把發言權交還給管理階層,請他們做總結陳詞。

  • Mark A. Pytosh - President and Chief Executive Officer

    Mark A. Pytosh - President and Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, thanks everybody for participating in the call today and we look forward to reviewing our fourth quarter results with you in February. Have a nice day.

    感謝各位今天參加電話會議,我們期待在二月與大家一起回顧我們第四季的業績。祝你今天過得愉快。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

    女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。您可以在此時斷開線路。

  • Thank you for your participation and have a wonderful day.

    感謝您的參與,祝您有美好的一天。