Tigo Energy, Inc. (TYGO) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. Welcome to Tigo Energy's fiscal second quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Joining us today from Tigo are Zvi Alon, CEO; and Bill Roeschlein, CFO. As a reminder, this call is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the call over to Bill Roeschlein, Chief Financial Officer.

Thank you, operator, and it's a pleasure to join you today from our corporate offices in Los Gatos, California. Also with us is Zvi Alon, our CEO.

We'd like to remind everyone that some of the matters we'll discuss on this call, including our expected business outlook, our ability to increase our revenues and achieve and maintain profitability; our overall long-term growth prospects, expectations regarding continued recovery in our industry, statements about demand for our products, our competitive position and market share, the impact of tariffs and other trade barriers, including US restrictions on foreign produced power inverters, the anticipated impact of regulatory actions, including actions by the SEC and the European Union, on demand for our products, our current and our future inventory levels, charges and reserves and their impact on future financial results, inventory supply and its impact on customer shipments statements about our revenue and adjusted EBITDA for the third fiscal quarter of 2026, and our revenue for the full fiscal year 2026; we expect the timing of the market introduction and volume ramp of our Section 45x and ITC-qualified optimized inverter solution; our ability to penetrate new markets and expand our market share, including expansion in international markets and our continued expansion of and investments in our product portfolio and the timing thereof; and our US manufacturing strategy are all forward-looking and, as such, are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties including, but not limited to, those factors described in today's press release and discussed in the Risk Factors section of our most recent annual report on Form 10-K, our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2026, and other reports that we may file with the SEC from time to time. These risks and uncertainties could cause actual results to materially -- to differ materially from those expressed on this call. Those forward-looking statements are made only as of the date when made.

During our call today, we will reference certain non-GAAP financial measures. We include reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in our press release furnished as an exhibit on our Form 8-K. The non-GAAP financial measures provided should not be considered as a substitute for or superior to measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP.

Finally, I would like to remind everyone that this call is being webcast and a recording will be made available for replay on Tigo's Investor Relations website at investors.tigoenergy.com.

With that, I'd like to now turn the call over to Tigo's CEO, Zvi Alon. Zvi?

Thank you, Bill. To begin today's discussion, I will highlight key area of our recent financial operational performance before turning the call over to our CFO, Bill. He will discuss our second quarter financial results in more depth and provide our guidance for the third quarter and revised outlook for the full year of 2026. After that, I will share some closing remarks and then open the call for questions from our analysts.

Second quarter revenue grew 5.6% year-over-year to $25.4 million but came in below our expectations. While results were below our prior guidance and the variance was primarily driven by external timing factors and current market conditions.

To put that in context, we grew overall revenue year-over-year in a quarter when residential solar contracted in many of the markets that we serve. In the US, Q2 residential volumes contracted to post the 25B, in line with the Wood Mac annual expectation of 21% decline. And Italy and Czech residential installations both declined double digits, respectfully. In the first half, residential installations in Germany, meanwhile, are recovering of a 21% decline in Q1 of 2026, according to the German Solar Industry Association.

In the United States, sales were down 4% year-over-year, following the expiration of the residential clean energy tax credit. In addition, our US optimized inverter partner encountered operational delays that will shift the timeline of market introduction of our Section 45X and ITC-qualified optimized inverter solution with volume shipments now expected to begin ramping up in the fourth quarter.

While this timing shift will delay the near-term contribution, the FCC's recent decision to restrict future authorization of foreign-produced power inverters strengthens the strategic relationship of our US manufacturing strategy and positions our section -- ITC-qualified optimized inverter solutions to meet the growing demand for domestically produced solar products.

In Europe, the market recovery continues at a more measured pace than anticipated. Similar to the US market, the European Union restriction on inverters from high-risk vendors in EU-funded projects is directing demand to trusted vendors in countries where Tigo is already strong, including Czech Republic and Poland.

We believe Tigo is one of the few companies in the solar industry positioned to benefit from both of these policy actions. Encouragingly, Germany and Italy grew 6% and 20% year-over-year, respectively. Weakness in both residential markets. We have delivered year-over-year growth in Spain, Australia, demonstrating the benefits of our diversified geographic footprint.

In Germany, specifically, the cabinet approved changes in July that would fix the fitting tariff for new systems beginning in 2027. While systems connected to the grid by the end of this year keep their existing terms, we believe this should pull demand into the second half of 2026 and raise the value of the storage and self-consumption, which is what our MLP and storage products are designed to deliver. Within our product portfolio, GO ESS contributed $2.2 million or 8.6% of the quarterly revenue as the ramp of our new gold battery progressed more slowly than planned.

In summary, we remain focused on advancing our product initiatives, expanding partner relationships aligning our cost structure with near-term demand and maintaining close control of working capital. These priorities are central to capitalizing on the broader international opportunities and driving more consistent growth and sustainable profitability.

And with that, I will turn it over to Bill. Bill?

Thank you, Zvi. Turning now to our financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. Revenue for the second quarter of 2026 increased 5.6% to $25.4 million from $24.1 million in the prior year period. On a sequential basis, revenue increased 0.8% from $25.2 million in the first quarter.

By region, EMEA represented 73.1% of total revenue. APAC represented 10.1%. And the Americas and LatAm represented a combined 16.8%. By product family, for the second quarter of 2026, MLPE revenue represented $22.7 million of revenue or 89.2% of total revenues. Go ESS revenue was $2.2 million, representing 8.6% of total second quarter revenue and EI platform revenue represented $0.6 million or 2.2% of total revenue during the quarter with Predict Plus annual recurring revenue reaching $1.7 million at quarter end.

Gross profit in the second quarter was $10 million or 39.3% of revenue compared with a gross profit of $10.8 million or 44.7% of revenue in the comparable year ago period. Excluding GO ESS, gross margin was 42.1%, with the difference primarily attributable to the sale of our remaining stock of older EI batteries.

Operating expenses for the second quarter decreased 4.8% to $11.7 million from $12.3 million in the prior year period and decreased 11.6% sequentially. We remain focused on disciplined expense management throughout the quarter.

Operating loss for the second quarter was $1.7 million compared with an operating loss of $1.5 million in the prior year period. Net income for the second quarter was $2.2 million compared with a GAAP net loss of $4.4 million in the prior year period. Second quarter net income included a $3.2 million income tax benefit. On a pretax basis, we recorded a loss of $1 million.

Non-GAAP net income, which excludes stock-based compensation from GAAP net income or loss was $3.6 million compared with a non-GAAP net loss of $2.1 million in the prior year period. As a reminder, we believe this measure provides investors with additional insight into our progress towards achieving consistent GAAP net income.

Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter was $52,000 compared with an adjusted EBITDA of $1.1 million in the prior year period. As a reminder, adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP measure that represents earnings or loss before interest and other expenses, net income tax benefit or expense depreciation and amortization as adjusted to exclude stock-based compensation and merger-related transaction expenses.

We believe this measure provides helpful supplemental information regarding our performance by excluding certain items that may not be indicative of our core business operating results, providing investors with additional insight on key metrics used by management. Weighted average basic shares outstanding during the quarter were $76.3 million.

Turning to the balance sheet. Accounts receivable net decreased to $13.6 million from $14.2 million at the end of the first quarter and from $13.9 million at year-end 2025. Inventory decreased to $20.6 million from $24.8 million at the end of the first quarter. Compared with year-end 2025, inventory declined by $10.7 million or 34.3%. Cash and cash equivalents totaled $16.9 million at June 30, 2026, an increase of $5.3 million sequentially and $9.2 million from year-end 2025.

At the end of the second quarter, we had $4.1 million in borrowings outstanding under our revolving credit facility. We remain focused on working capital discipline and maintaining appropriate liquidity as we execute our operating plan. Both inventory and receivables declined during the quarter, which, together with the facility draw, supported the sequential increase in cash.

Turning now to our financial guidance for the third quarter of 2026 and our outlook for the full year 2026. As a reminder, Tigo provides quarterly guidance for revenue and adjusted EBITDA as we believe these metrics are key indicators for the overall performance of our business.

For the third quarter of 2026, we expect revenue and adjusted EBITDA to be in the following ranges. We expect revenue for the third quarter ending September 30, 2026, to range between $24 million and $26 million. We expect adjusted EBITDA to range from a loss of $1 million to a positive $500,000. For the full year of 2026, we are updating our revenue outlook and now expect revenue to range between $100 million and $110 million.

The revision reflects our US optimized inverter partners shift of its go-to-market launch to the fourth quarter, the slower ramp of our new go battery and a more gradual market recovery in Europe. We believe the anticipated fourth quarter launch of our domestically produced optimized inverter solution together with the anticipated demand created by the SEC in the US and European Union actions in EMEA positions us for a stronger end to 2026.

That completes my summary, and I'd now like to turn the call back over to Zvi for final remarks.

Thanks, Bill. While our second quarter revenue results was below our expectations, the year-over-year growth we delivered in Germany, Italy, Spain and Australia demonstrate the benefits of our diversified geography footprint. We remain focused on advancing our product initiatives and expanding partner relationship, including US manufacturing strategy which we believe is becoming increasingly relevant following the FCC recent action on produce power invertors.

Combined with the discipline, expense and working capital management, we believe these priorities positions Tigo to capitalize on the broad international opportunities and improve profitability over time.

With that, operator, please open the call for Q&A.

(Operator Instructions) Philip Shen, ROTH Capital Partners.

Wanted to explore the EG4 delays. Originally, it was expected Q1 when you first announced it and then got pushed back later to Q2 for a ramp, and now we're looking at Q4. You don't give much of a rationale. Can you explain what's going on and why the delays are happening?

Thank you for the question. What I will highlight is that we -- as we've highlighted before, we actually shipped our products to EG4 and it's in their possession already. They had some internal issues that they have to deal with. And I'm not sure that I'm quite in position to actually explain what happened. But it's not anything which is a demonstration of a change of the plan, it really is just an operational timing issue. They had some moving parts that conflicted and caused the delays. But we are fairly sure that we are back on track and that we will be seeing the results as we've expected now that it will come in, in Q4.

Okay. And what gives you that confidence? And what is your confidence level? Are you 100% that Q4 is the ramp? Or are you 80% confident or maybe 50% confident?

The reason for our confidence is obviously we are very closely monitoring the situation, and we are very much aware of the various conditions that we're pushing. And I would say that at this stage right now, I'm fairly confident, I would say, close to 100%. You never say 100% because life is not so certain. but it's as close as possible to the 100%.

Okay. So --

I don't see way fees they paid us for the product. So they have an incentive.

Yes. That's important to note. Yeah. Okay. Good. Now, this margin -- okay. So you took down the annual guidance, Zvi. And Q3 is coming lower than expected. The full year is coming lower. You highlighted the three reasons there. Europe is a little bit softer, the EG4 issue. And so can you just give us some more color on that kind of lowering of the guidance? And would you expect acceleration in 2027? And if so, in 2027, which part -- like which quarter of the year do you think we could see an acceleration?

So what I will tell you is that we are obviously disappointed. We had to bring it down and the fact that we've seen those delays. We felt fairly confident that we will be able to weather the storm as we enter the year because every indication was that there was going to be a slowdown. And we've had all the initiatives we've taken to show us that we will be able to grow. We're coming in at basically flat year-over-year. I can tell you that we do see some signs, but we don't want to convert it into predictions yet on return to some more normalcy, which will be in gold for us as opposed to just staying flat from that perspective.

And the other component, which I want to stress is that we are fairly disciplined in managing our operations and cash and we did manage to increase the cash over the last couple of quarters as well. So from that perspective, we are in a fairly good shape actually.

Okay. Good. And then could we see acceleration in the first quarter of next year? Or do you think it's more likely Q2?

I would like to believe it's more like Q1.

Okay. And as we go into this weaker kind of period in Q3 and 4, should margins kind of be gross margins be in line with kind of Q2 levels? Or do you think you can get back to prior year levels. My guess is you kind of stay flat Q3 and Q4, but just curious, quarter-over-quarter, what kind of movement we might see?

I think you're most likely right on that, and our target gross margin is 40%. So that's where I think we'll end up.

Okay. As it relates to -- you guys said on the Q1 call that you had several utility-scale pipeline deals expected to materialize in '26. What's the update there? Have any of these contracts across the finish line? And what does the timing look like for this opportunity if it hasn't?

So we have not crossed the finish line, we have not taken them off the radar screen. They are going through some delays like big budgets are going through but we are still in place. It's just predicting the timing is a little bit more challenging. And so we're trying to be a little bit more careful in those predictions. But the projects are still very valid.

Okay. And can you give the reason for why it hasn't closed as you expected?

So one of them happens to be overseas, and there is a timing related to how quickly they could have started before the winter is coming in -- and that for some delays on this project. And similarly, the other project is -- they've gone through some internal operational changes which caused the delay, but we do believe that they're back on track right now. So we will see how quickly it comes to fruition.

Okay. Got it. One last one, I'll pass it on. I know I've taken a lot the FCC inverter band, we've heard a fair amount about this. I know you said that it benefits you, but it benefits you in so far as your new models are not made in some of these countries that might see a band or with companies that might see a band. So it could be Chinese companies that are operating in Vietnam or other countries that you might source from. And so just curious if you can just talk about how you are exposed at all, if any, do you have any exposure at all? And then what the plan is to avoid being adversely impacted?

Most welcome. And thanks for the questions, Phil. Keep on asking. So let me address the FCC issue. FCC is composed of two components. There is the communication aspect of it, communication and control. And then there is the actual location of manufacturing and whatnot. On the location manufacturing, we already started the move into the US, and we started shipping from the US. And from that perspective, our exposure is going to come down.

On the communication, we've always been controlling our communication aspects of the inverters. And actually, we stand the chance of expanding it to other investors as we've been doing it in the past but not just the sole supplier. So from that perspective, it might open an opportunity for us as opposed to be presenting the challenge.

Amit Dayal, H.C. Wainwright.

So this issue with EG4, you are indicating is more operational. But is there any demand issue that you might -- these guys might be facing that is impacting the pushout and these delays?

Look, the fact that the markets are slowing down a little bit, that's not a secret. That's very well known and has been published multiple times but by several companies out there. So from that perspective, we do see a little bit more of alternative market in general. But with the bigger projects, and we've seen a shift in our installed base to not just residential but also to C&I in the large utility scale.

So from that perspective, those markets have been less impacted, and they go on their own pace. It's not the same as in the residential, which has been the majority of our market. So that's why we are starting to see a bit of a slowdown. We are encouraged on the other hand, by the change in momentum in Germany, as I've highlighted before, in other places where we've seen growth actually in those areas, and we expect that it will continue.

Okay. So part of the thinking, I guess, when you provided guidance in 1Q for $130 million to $135 million was some pickup in the US market. So should we assume the US market will continue to be a drag basically for the next year? Or do you see any catalysts that could help support demand over here in the US?

Generally speaking, we've seen two phenomenon happening. One is a slowdown in general on one hand. But on the other hand, we've seen an increase in the adoption of storage solutions. So we've seen an increase in storage and a decrease in solar instillations. I don't know to be the impact overall, and I do believe that we're going to start seeing storage actually increasing even more, specifically as everyone gets to realize the benefits and understand the benefits of owning those to solutions. So we will have to wait and see how the market evolves here in the US but it is a challenge in general.

Understood. Most of my other questions are already discussed. So I'll take my questions offline.

Eric Stine, Craig-Hallum Capital Group.

Can we just step back a little bit? Obviously, EG4, arguably the biggest factor, it likely is the biggest factor in the guidance reduction. But if I think about kind of your thought process coming into the year and the 25% plus growth, I mean, obviously, the market challenges were well known, you were incorporating that. And one of the things was in the US, repowering, which obviously didn't benefit from the credit anyways. And then when you're talking about Europe, I mean, you were gaining some share there but really not counting on market improvement.

So it does seem like has your view of those markets changed in terms of -- you really weren't counting on market improvement to hit those numbers. So maybe just expand on your thought process in those two areas specifically.

You're absolutely right, Eric. When we got in, the sentiment for actually projecting that growth was related to predominantly the EG4 factor, which was supposed to be earlier in the year and go through those delays. And we've been exposed to the potential numbers, obviously, which we shared in some of the estimates. So they did have a factor. And now we are going to go back to some sort of reality sense, and it's going to be Q4, and it would put us essentially finishing the year flat to last year. And even that, in a market which is being challenged on its own without having any new initiatives.

Now, I did mention the last couple of quarters, that we are working on some larger projects, which, as I've indicated earlier today in answering the question that we have not quite lost these projects. They are still in the background and they're just taking a little bit longer. So we are trying to be a little bit more timid on using it to provide better guidance for the rest of the year. So we are trying to be a little bit more conservative. That's it. But we feel fairly confident with where we -- the guidance we provided, despite the fact that the market is challenging.

Okay. And I'll just keep it to two questions. But digging into your thought process on the guide certainly implies that Q4 looks a lot like the first three. I mean, are you assuming at the low end that EG4? I mean, even though you said you're nearly 100% confident that the ramp starts. I mean, at the low end, are you just assuming, hey, maybe it starts in Q4, but there's very limited impact. And that would be the reason for that. What gets you to the low end and what gets you to the high end of that $100 million to $110 million?

You're absolutely 100% right. We are really trying to be very conservative on that side. But we do look at the EG4 based on the confidence we have as being a positive surprise, I would say, if you want, or at least a good story to deliver. And we are trying to be very careful not overexpanding ourselves or financially stretching ourselves with a plan that would be otherwise challenged.

At this time, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Alon for his closing remarks.

Thank you again, everyone, for joining us today. I especially want to thank to our dedicated employees for their ongoing contribution as well as our customers and partners for their continued hard work. I also want to thank the investors for their continued support.

Operator?

Thank you for joining us today for Tigo's second quarter 2026 earnings conference call. You may now disconnect.