Texas Roadhouse Inc (TXRH) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good evening and welcome to the Texas Roadhouse fourth-quarter earnings conference call. Today's call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

    晚上好,歡迎參加德州客棧第四季財報電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音。(操作員指令)

  • I would now like to introduce Michael Bailen, Head of Investor Relations for Texas Roadhouse. You may begin your conference.

    現在我想介紹德州客棧投資者關係主管 Michael Bailen。您可以開始您的會議了。

  • Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

    Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Sarah, and good evening. By now you should have access to our earnings release for the fourth quarter in December 31, 2024. It may also be found on our website at texasroadhouse.com in the investor section. I would like to remind everyone that part of our discussion today will include forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and therefore undue reliance should not be placed upon them.

    謝謝你,莎拉,晚上好。現在您應該可以看到我們截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日的第四季財報。您也可以在我們的網站 texasroadhouse.com 的投資者部分找到它。我想提醒大家,我們今天的討論內容將包含前瞻性陳述。這些聲明並不能保證未來的表現,因此不應過度依賴它們。

  • We refer all of you to our earnings release and our recent filings with the SEC. These documents provide a more detailed discussion of the relevant factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those forward-looking statements. In addition, we may refer to non-GAAP measures. If applicable, reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures to the GAAP information can be found in our earnings release.

    請大家參閱我們的收益報告和最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。這些文件對可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述有重大差異的相關因素進行了更詳細的討論。此外,我們也可以參考非公認會計準則指標。如果適用,非 GAAP 指標與 GAAP 資訊的對帳可在我們的收益報告中找到。

  • On the call with me today is Jerry Morgan, Chief Executive Officer of Texas Roadhouse; and Chris Monroe, our Chief Financial Officer.

    今天與我一起通話的是 Texas Roadhouse 的執行長 Jerry Morgan;以及我們的財務長克里斯·門羅(Chris Monroe)。

  • Following the prepared remarks, we will be available to answer your questions in order to accommodate everyone that would like to ask a question. Could everyone please limit yourself to one question? Now, I'd like to turn the call over to Jerry.

    在準備好發言之後,我們將回答您的問題,以滿足每個想要提問的人的需求。大家能不能只問一個問題?現在,我想把電話轉給傑瑞。

  • Gerald Morgan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gerald Morgan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Michael, and good evening, everyone.

    謝謝,邁克爾,大家晚上好。

  • 2024 was a memorable year for Texas Roadhouse with strong performance in all aspects of our business. Thanks to positive traffic growth at all three brands, revenue grew to nearly $5.4 billion and average unit volume exceeded $8 million for the first time in our history. This was the second consecutive year of double-digit increases in restaurant margin dollars, income from operations, and earnings per share.

    2024年對於Texas Roadhouse來說是值得紀念的一年,我們業務的各個方面都表現強勁。由於三個品牌的流量均實現正成長,營收成長至近 54 億美元,平均單位銷量首次超過 800 萬美元。這是餐廳利潤、營業收入和每股收益連續第二年實現兩位數增長。

  • 2024 was also special for a number of milestones we achieved, including opening our 750th system-wide restaurant and our first international Jaggers. Additionally, we were named the Brand Icon by Nation's Restaurant News and celebrated our 20-year anniversary as a public company.

    2024 年也是一個特殊的年份,因為我們實現了多個里程碑,包括開設第 750 家全系統餐廳和第一家國際 Jaggers 餐廳。此外,我們被《國家餐飲新聞》評為“品牌偶像”,並慶祝了我們作為上市公司的 20 週年。

  • There is also no doubt that our people-first mentality was alive and well in 2024 as we continued giving back to the communities we serve. This included partnering with Homes for our Troops to fully fund their 400 custom built home. Raising over $925,000 for the American Tinnitus Association in honor of our late founder, Kent Taylor. And on Veterans Day, we honored over one million veterans with a free meal or a voucher for a future meal.

    毫無疑問,在 2024 年,我們以人為本的理念依然鮮活,我們將繼續回饋我們服務的社區。其中包括與 Homes for our Troops 合作,為其建造 400 套客製化房屋提供全額資金。為美國耳鳴協會籌集超過 925,000 美元,以紀念我們已故的創始人肯特泰勒 (Kent Taylor)。在退伍軍人節那天,我們向一百多萬退伍軍人贈送了免費餐點或未來餐點的代金券。

  • On the development front, we opened 31 company-owned restaurants across all brands in 2024. Our franchise partners also opened 11 international Texas Roadhouse restaurants in addition to 3 Jaggers. For 2025, we continue to expect approximately 30 company restaurant openings across the three brands. 2025 will also benefit from the January 1, acquisition of 13 franchise restaurants in Indiana, Ohio, and California.

    在發展方面,我們將於 2024 年在所有品牌開設 31 家自營餐廳。我們的特許經營合作夥伴除了開設 3 Jaggers 之外,還開設了 11 家國際 Texas Roadhouse 餐廳。到 2025 年,我們預計三個品牌將繼續開設約 30 家公司餐廳。 2025 也將受益於 1 月 1 日收購印第安納州、俄亥俄州和加利福尼亞州的 13 家特許經營餐廳。

  • Our outlook for franchise development also remains unchanged with an expectation of seven international Texas Roadhouse openings and three domestic Jaggers openings. In 2025, we believe value will remain top of mind for the consumer, and it was a focal point for our operators during our recently completed menu pricing calls. Based on these calls, we will be implementing a 1.4 menu price increase at the beginning of the second quarter.

    我們對特許經營發展的前景也保持不變,預計將開設 7 家國際 Texas Roadhouse 餐廳和 3 家國內 Jaggers 餐廳。我們相信,到 2025 年,價值仍將是消費者最關心的問題,而且在我們最近完成的菜單定價電話會議中,價值也是我們的操作員關注的焦點。根據這些呼籲,我們將在第二季初實施 1.4 個菜單價格的上漲。

  • 1We are confident this level of pricing maintains our everyday value, which has always been one of our competitive advantages. Also, to address evolving consumer beverage preferences, we are offering a variety of mocktails at Texas Roadhouse and Bubba's 33. We are monitoring their performance and contribution to our product mix, and early indications are positive.

    1我們相信,這種定價水準能夠維持我們的日常價值,這一直是我們的競爭優勢之一。此外,為了滿足消費者不斷變化的飲料偏好,我們在 Texas Roadhouse 和 Bubba's 33 提供各種無酒精雞尾酒。我們正在監測它們的表現及其對我們產品組合的貢獻,早期跡像是積極的。

  • Our technology initiatives this year will primarily be a continuation of our 2024 projects. We expect to complete the conversions of all locations to a digital kitchen by the end of the year. These conversions are creating a more efficient kitchen and a less stressful environment for our roadies. We will also continue upgrading the guest management system that our restaurants use at the host stand. These upgrades are allowing us to quote more accurate wait times and improve seating utilization.

    我們今年的技術措施主要將是 2024 年專案的延續。我們預計在今年年底前完成所有門市向數位廚房的改造。這些改造為我們的巡迴工作人員創造了更有效率的廚房和更輕鬆的環境。我們也將繼續升級我們餐廳在接待台使用的客人管理系統。這些升級使我們能夠估算更準確的等待時間並提高座位利用率。

  • Well, we are talking today about our 2024 results, our operators turned their attention to 2025 months ago. They remain focused on what we believe is the most important to our guests fresh, made from scratch food, high-level hospitality, and everyday value. We are confident that they will deliver with a little rowdy enthusiasm another year that will make our employees, guests, and shareholders proud.

    好吧,我們今天談論的是 2024 年的業績,幾個月前我們的營運商就把注意力轉向了 2025 年。他們始終專注於我們認為對客人來說最重要的是新鮮的、自製的食物、高水準的款待和日常價值。我們堅信,在新的一年裡,他們將會以飽滿的熱情,讓我們的員工、賓客和股東感到自豪。

  • Now Chris will provide some thoughts.

    現在克里斯將提供一些想法。

  • David Monroe - Chief Financial Officer

    David Monroe - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Jerry. There certainly is a lot about 2024 to celebrate.

    謝謝,傑瑞。2024 年確實有很多值得慶祝的事情。

  • The tremendous efforts of our operators resulted in a same-store sales increase of 8.5%, including 4.4% traffic growth. Also, full-year weekly sales averaged $159,000 at Texas Roadhouse, $119,000 at Bubba's 33, and $71,000 at Jaggers. And this momentum continued on the bottom line with meaningful margin dollar improvement for all three brands. The end result of this performance was a total return of 44% for fiscal year 2024, consisting of 42.5% EPS growth and a 1.5% dividend yield.

    我們營運人員的巨大努力使得同店銷售額成長了 8.5%,其中客流量成長了 4.4%。此外,Texas Roadhouse 全年每周平均銷售額為 159,000 美元,Bubba's 33 全年每周平均銷售額為 119,000 美元,Jaggers 全年每周平均銷售額為 71,000 美元。這一勢頭持續下去,三個品牌的利潤率均有顯著提高。這一業績的最終結果是 2024 財年的總回報率為 44%,其中包括 42.5% 的每股收益成長和 1.5% 的股息殖利率。

  • Additionally, we ended the year with over $245 million of cash and generated over $750 million of cash flow from operations. This allowed us to once again self-fund all of our capital allocation priorities, including $354 million of capital expenditures, $163 million of dividends, and $80 million of share repurchases.

    此外,我們在年底的現金餘額超過 2.45 億美元,並從營運中產生了超過 7.5 億美元的現金流。這使我們能夠再次為所有資本配置重點項目自行籌資,包括 3.54 億美元的資本支出、1.63 億美元的股息和 8,000 萬美元的股票回購。

  • Moving on to 2025, our guidance for wage and other labor inflation remains unchanged at 4% to 5%. It will largely be driven by state mandated wage increases, the impact of the recently completed franchise acquisition, and higher benefits expense.

    展望2025年,我們對薪資和其他勞動力通膨的預期維持不變,為4%至5%。這主要受到國家強制工資增長、最近完成的特許經營權收購的影響以及更高的福利費用的推動。

  • Turning to commodities, we are updating our 2025 inflation guidance to 3% to 4% based primarily on updated cattle supply expectations which now project a tighter supply in the back half of 2025 than originally anticipated.

    談到大宗商品,我們將 2025 年通膨預期更新為 3% 至 4%,這主要基於最新的牛肉供應預期,該預期預計 2025 年下半年的供應將比最初預期的更加緊張。

  • For 2025, our capital expenditure guidance of approximately $400 million remains unchanged. This amount does not include the $78 million used at the beginning of 2025 to complete the previously mentioned acquisition of 13 franchise locations.

    對於 2025 年,我們約 4 億美元的資本支出指引保持不變。該金額不包括 2025 年初用於完成前面提到的收購 13 家特許經營店的 7800 萬美元。

  • We have a full pipeline of new restaurants for all three brands as well as a good number of bump-outs, cooler editions, and other projects planned for the year. We will also be relocating as many as nine of our higher-performing Texas Roadhouse restaurants to new, larger locations with more parking.

    我們為這三個品牌準備了一系列新餐廳,並計劃在今年推出大量的突出版本、更酷的版本和其他項目。我們還將把多達 9 家業績較高的 Texas Roadhouse 餐廳搬遷至新的、更大、擁有更多停車位的地點。

  • While building new restaurants and maintaining our existing locations remains our top capital allocation priority, we are also allocating capital for other key initiatives, including the aforementioned franchise acquisition. Additionally, today, we announced an 11% increase to our quarterly dividend and a newly authorized $500 million share repurchase program. With the full development pipeline, strong balance sheet, and healthy cash flow trends, we are well positioned for another year of solid growth and shareholder returns.

    雖然建造新餐廳和維護現有餐廳仍然是我們資本分配的首要任務,但我們也在為其他關鍵舉措分配資金,包括前面提到的特許經營權收購。此外,今天我們宣布季度股利增加 11%,並批准新 5 億美元的股票回購計畫。憑藉完整的開發管道、強勁的資產負債表和健康的現金流趨勢,我們已準備好迎接新一年的穩健成長和股東回報。

  • And now Michael will walk us through the fourth-quarter results.

    現在麥可將向我們介紹第四季的業績。

  • Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

    Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

  • Thanks, Chris. For the fourth quarter of 2024, we reported revenue growth of 23.5%, primarily driven by a 6.6% increase in comparable average unit volume and 13.7% store week growth. We also reported a restaurant margin dollar increase of 37.3% to $243 million and a diluted earnings per share increase of 60.1% to $1.73. These measures were positively impacted by an additional week in our December period, which resulted in 14 weeks in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to 13 weeks during the fourth quarter of 2023.

    謝謝,克里斯。2024 年第四季度,我們報告營收成長 23.5%,主要得益於可比平均單位銷售成長 6.6% 和門市週成長 13.7%。我們也報告餐廳利潤率成長 37.3% 至 2.43 億美元,每股稀釋收益成長 60.1% 至 1.73 美元。這些措施受到了 12 月額外一週的正面影響,使得 2024 年第四季的季度總數達到 14 週,而 2023 年第四季的季度總數為 13 週。

  • We estimate the additional week positively impacted diluted earnings per share growth for the fourth quarter of 2024 by over 20% and full-year 2024 by approximately 5%. Average weekly sales in the fourth quarter were $154,000, with to go representing $20,000 or 13% of these total weekly sales. Comparable sales increased 7.7% in the fourth quarter, driven by 4.9% traffic growth and a 2.8% increase in average check.

    我們估計,額外的一周將對 2024 年第四季的每股攤薄收益成長產生超過 20% 的正面影響,對 2024 年全年的每股攤薄收益成長產生約 5% 的正面影響。第四季的平均每週銷售額為 154,000 美元,待售銷售額為 20,000 美元,佔每週總銷售額的 13%。第四季可比銷售額成長 7.7%,其中客流量成長 4.9% 以及平均支票金額成長 2.8%。

  • By month, comparable sales grew 8.3%, 6.9%, and 7.9% for October, November, and December periods respectively. And despite the impact of weather and calendar shifts, comparable sales for the first seven weeks of the first quarter of 2025 were up 2.9%. with our restaurants averaging sales of over $157,000 per week during that period.

    按月計算,10 月、11 月和 12 月的可比銷售額分別成長 8.3%、6.9% 和 7.9%。儘管受到天氣和日曆變化的影響,2025 年第一季前七週的可比銷售額仍增長了 2.9%。在此期間,我們餐廳每週的平均銷售額超過 157,000 美元。

  • Also, please keep in mind, because of the 53rd week in 2024, our comparable sales growth in 2025 is based on a different set of weeks than what is included in our 2024 reported restaurant sales. This mismatch of weeks will result in comparable sales being as much as 1.5% higher than average weekly sales in the first quarter.

    另外,請記住,由於 2024 年是第 53 週,我們 2025 年的可比較銷售額成長所基於的周數與我們 2024 年報告的餐廳銷售額所包含的周數不同。這種週數不匹配將導致可比銷售額比第一季的平均每週銷售額高出 1.5%。

  • In the fourth quarter, restaurant margin dollars per store week increased 20.8% year over year to approximately $26,000. Restaurant margin as percentage of total sales increased 172 basis points to 17%. The margin improvement included an estimated 45 basis point benefit from the additional week.

    第四季度,餐廳每週利潤年增 20.8%,達到約 26,000 美元。餐廳利潤率佔總銷售額的百分比增加了 172 個基點,達到 17%。利潤率改善包括額外一週帶來的約 45 個基點的收益。

  • Food and beverage costs as a percentage of total sales were 33.5% for the fourth quarter. The 65 basis point year-over-year improvement was primarily driven by the benefit of a 2.8% check increase, offsetting the 0.3% commodity inflation for the quarter. Commodity inflation for full-year 2024 was 0.7%, which was in line with our guidance of less than 1%.

    第四季食品和飲料成本佔總銷售額的 33.5%。年成長 65 個基點,主要得益於支票帳戶餘額增加 2.8%,抵銷了本季 0.3% 的商品通膨影響。2024 年全年商品通膨率為 0.7%,符合我們低於 1% 的預期。

  • Labor as a percentage of total sales decreased 10 basis points to 33% as compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. Labor dollars per store week increased 8.2% due to wage and other labor inflation of 5%, growth in hours of 2.6%, and higher group insurance claims expense of 0.6%. Adjusting for the impact of the additional week, labor hour growth for the quarter was approximately 2%. For the full year, wage and other labor inflation came in at 4.6%, which was the midpoint of our 2024 guidance.

    與 2023 年第四季相比,勞動力佔總銷售額的百分比下降了 10 個基點,至 33%。由於薪資和其他勞動力通膨 5%,工作時間增加 2.6%,以及團體保險索賠費用增加 0.6%,每週每店勞動成本增加了 8.2%。經過額外一週的影響調整後,本季工時成長約為 2%。全年薪資和其他勞動力通膨率為 4.6%,這是我們 2024 年預期的中點。

  • Other operating costs were 15% of sales, which was 82 basis points better than the fourth quarter of 2023. The leverage was driven by the benefit of the additional week and moderating cost pressures. There was also a 13 basis point positive net year-over-year impact from general liability insurance reserve adjustments which included a $2.7 million unfavorable adjustment this year and the lapping of a $3.7 million unfavorable adjustment from last year.

    其他營運成本佔銷售額的 15%,比 2023 年第四季高出 82 個基點。槓桿率的上升是由額外一週的好處和緩和的成本壓力所推動的。一般責任保險準備金調整也產生了 13 個基點的年比正淨影響,其中包括今年 270 萬美元的不利調整和去年 370 萬美元的不利調整的重疊。

  • Moving below restaurant margin, G&A dollars grew 15.2% year over year and came in at 4% of revenue for the fourth quarter. G&A for the quarter included approximately $3.7 million of higher expense due to the additional week. The majority of the remaining year-over-year dollar increase was due to higher compensation and benefit expense, including the $1.3 million impact of the timing of our change from quarterly to annual equity grants.

    低於餐廳利潤率,一般及行政開支年增 15.2%,佔第四季營收的 4%。由於增加一周,本季度的一般及行政開支包括約 370 萬美元的更高費用。其餘同比增長的大部分原因是薪酬和福利費用的增加,其中包括我們從季度股權授予改為年度股權授予的時間變化所產生的 130 萬美元的影響。

  • Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 15.8%. Our full-year 2024 income tax rate of 15.3%, was in line with our guidance of approximately 15%. Our forecast for the full-year 2025 income tax rate remains unchanged at between 15 and 16%.

    我們本季的有效稅率為 15.8%。我們 2024 年全年的所得稅率為 15.3%,與我們約 15% 的指引一致。我們對 2025 年全年所得稅率的預測保持不變,仍為 15% 至 16% 之間。

  • Now, I will turn the call back over to Jerry for final comments.

    現在,我將把電話轉回給傑瑞,請他發表最後的評論。

  • Gerald Morgan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gerald Morgan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Michael. There's no doubt that 2024 was a great year for Texas Roadhouse. As we turn our full attention to 2025, we will remain dedicated to the principles that have served us well for over 30 years. Our operators are committed to delivering on our mission of legendary food and legendary service each and every shift. We will uphold our core values of passion, partnership, integrity, and fun with purpose in order to continue providing high-level hospitality to our guests. And staying true to our mission and values will lead us to delivering on our purpose of serving communities across America and the world.

    謝謝,麥可。毫無疑問,2024 年對 Texas Roadhouse 來說是偉大的一年。當我們把全部目光轉向2025年時,我們將繼續致力於30多年來為我們服務的原則。我們的操作員每次輪班都致力於履行我們的使命,提供傳奇食品和傳奇服務。我們將秉承我們的核心價值:熱情、合作、誠信和樂趣,繼續為我們的客人提供高水準的服務。堅守我們的使命和價值觀將使我們實現服務美國乃至全世界社區的目標。

  • Finally, Texas Roadhouse celebrated its 32nd birthday this week, and I want to thank all of Roadie Nation for their many contributions to our success, yeeha.

    最後,Texas Roadhouse 本週慶祝了它的 32 歲生日,我想感謝 Roadie Nation 的所有人為我們的成功做出的許多貢獻,耶。

  • Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

    Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

  • That concludes our prepared remarks. Sarah, please open the line for questions.

    我們的準備好的演講到此結束。莎拉,請打開熱線來回答問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) David Tarantino, Baird.

    (操作員指示)大衛·塔倫蒂諾,貝爾德。

  • David Tarantino - Director of Research, Director of Research, Senior Research Analyst, Restaurants, Senior Research Analyst

    David Tarantino - Director of Research, Director of Research, Senior Research Analyst, Restaurants, Senior Research Analyst

  • Hi, good afternoon. I was hoping maybe you could provide some context on the quarter-to-day trend you're seeing in Q1. I know you mentioned weather issues. I was hoping maybe you could try to quantify that and just, give us some perspective on what you think the underlying trend might look like in your confidence level in returning to positive traffic growth for the rest of the year. Thanks.

    嗨,下午好。我希望您能提供一些有關第一季逐日趨勢的背景資訊。我知道您提到了天氣問題。我希望您能嘗試量化這一點,並給我們一些觀點,說明您認為在今年剩餘時間內恢復正向流量成長的信心水平下,潛在的趨勢可能是什麼樣的。謝謝。

  • Gerald Morgan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gerald Morgan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, David. This is Jerry. Our restaurants are fully staffed. Our food is legendary, and our menu is screaming value. And the other thing that gives me a lot of confidence, we just completed Valentine's Day week, which our stores averaged $183,000 during that week, which is over 23 or $20,000 higher than the average six weeks, so. I think although our performance for comp has been irregular for Roadhouse, I do believe that there's still a very strong desire to visit our Texas Roadhouse.

    謝謝,大衛。這是傑瑞。我們的餐廳配備齊全。我們的菜餚享有盛譽,我們的菜單物超所值。另一件讓我充滿信心的事情是,我們剛剛結束了情人節週,那一周我們商店的平均銷售額為 183,000 美元,比平均六週高出 23,000 多美元或 20,000 美元。我認為,儘管我們在 Roadhouse 的演出表現不穩定,但我相信大家仍然非常渴望參觀我們的 Texas Roadhouse。

  • And I have a lot of confidence in the underlying fundamentals and the strength of our business. So and we look forward to a five-week period in March, and you know there have been some other factors, and I think Chris will comment on some of that.

    我對我們業務的基本面和實力非常有信心。因此,我們期待三月的五週時間,您知道還有一些其他因素,我認為克里斯會對其中一些因素發表評論。

  • David Monroe - Chief Financial Officer

    David Monroe - Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure, and David, thanks for the question. I agree with Jerry. I definitely feel good about the business overall. Let's see if I can provide a little more detail on the sales trends over the last seven weeks. So for the four-week January period, David, we were actually up 5.5%. That included an approximate 1% benefit from New Year's Day being in our comp sales in '25 and not in '24. But it was more than offset by approximately a 2% negative impact from snow-causing delays or store closures rather.

    當然,大衛,謝謝你的提問。我同意傑瑞的觀點。我對整個業務感到非常滿意。讓我們看看我是否可以提供有關過去七週銷售趨勢的更多詳細資訊。因此,大衛,在一月份的四周時間裡,我們的收入實際上增加了 5.5%。其中包括 1925 年元旦期間我們的同店銷售額比 1924 年增加了約 1%。但因降雪導致的延誤或商店關閉造成的約 2% 的負面影響卻超過了這一水平。

  • So that's just in the month of January. Sales in the most recent three weeks were basically flat, and while those sales during Valentine's Week were strong, we actually had over a 2% negative impact by Valentine's Day shifting from a Wednesday last year to a Friday this year.

    這還只是一月的情況。最近三週的銷售額基本上持平,雖然情人節期間的銷售額很強勁,但由於今年情人節從去年的周三移到週五,我們實際上受到了超過 2% 的負面影響。

  • And you know that we don't attempt to quantify the general impact of cold weather, but we certainly believe that colder weather and many other external factors this year have negatively impacted recent performance. So you just kind of put all that together, and we're conservatively estimating at least a 1.5% negative impact to the reported seven-week sales growth from calendar shifts and store closures, and that's without including any general impact from the cold weather.

    你知道,我們並不試圖量化寒冷天氣的整體影響,但我們確實相信,今年的寒冷天氣和許多其他外部因素對近期的表現產生了負面影響。所以,把所有這些因素綜合起來,我們保守估計,日曆變化和商店關閉將對報告的七週銷售增長產生至少 1.5% 的負面影響,而且這還不包括寒冷天氣造成的一般影響。

  • Bottom line again, we feel really good about the core business across all three brands, and we've seen an excellent performance in spite of the obstacles over the last few weeks.

    總而言之,我們對這三個品牌的核心業務感到非常滿意,儘管過去幾週遇到了一些障礙,但我們仍然看到了出色的表現。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Palmer, Evercore ISI.

    大衛·帕爾默(David Palmer),Evercore ISI。

  • David Palmer - Analyst

    David Palmer - Analyst

  • Thanks. Good evening and thanks for all that detail before on sales. Maybe switch my question to one on inflation. You mentioned that the change in estimates to 3% to 4% or that I guess it was about a point increase in that estimate, and that that was all beef. How much visibility do you have on your costs this year and maybe get a sense of the how those margin trends or those that food cost line will trend through the year. Thanks.

    謝謝。晚上好,感謝您在銷售之前提供的所有詳細資訊。也許我的問題可以改為關於通貨膨脹的問題。您提到預估變化為 3% 至 4%,或者我猜該預估大約增加了一個點,而這都是有爭議的。您對今年的成本有多少了解,是否能了解一下利潤趨勢或食品成本線在全年的趨勢。謝謝。

  • Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

    Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

  • Hey, David, it's, Michael. Thanks for the question. Yeah, I mean, I'd say the majority of the increase is driven by beef, but there was also a little bit of it driven by some other proteins and a few other items, but largely the view on beef in the second half of the year. It was driving the increase there. We do have about 40% of our overall basket locked for the full year. We certainly have more locked in the front half of the year than the second half of the year. So you could say we have a little bit more clarity earlier in the year.

    嘿,大衛,我是麥可。謝謝你的提問。是的,我的意思是,我想說大部分成長是由牛肉推動的,但也有一小部分是由其他一些蛋白質和一些其他產品推動的,但主要是下半年對牛肉的看法。它正在推動那裡的成長。我們確實已經鎖定了全年約 40% 的整體投資組合。我們上半年鎖定的訂單肯定比下半年多。因此你可以說,我們在今年早些時候就已經有了更清晰的認識。

  • As far as the cadence of the commodity inflation, probably, would see our -- you're expected to see the lowest level of inflation in the first quarter, maybe add or could be a little bit below the low end of the range, and then a fairly consistent inflationary outlook for the rest of the year that will get you into that 3% to 4% range.

    就大宗商品通膨的節奏而言,我們可能會看到——預計第一季通膨水平將處於最低水平,可能上升或略低於區間的低端,而今年剩餘時間的通膨前景將相當穩定,將進入 3% 至 4% 的區間。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brian Harbour, Morgan Stanley.

    摩根士丹利的布萊恩哈伯 (Brian Harbour)。

  • Brian Harbour - Analyst

    Brian Harbour - Analyst

  • Yeah, thanks. Good afternoon, guys. Maybe just as you think about kind of margin drivers this year. I mean, Michael, you talked a little bit about some I think some OpEx favorability. Is that something that you would still expect this year and, on the labor front, as you think about our growth relative to traffic, would you expect similar to what you saw in the second half of this year, maybe just comment generally on how you see kind of margins evolving this year.

    是的,謝謝。大家下午好。也許正如您所思考的今年的利潤驅動因素一樣。我的意思是,邁克爾,你談到了一些我認為對 OpEx 有利的事情。您今年還會這樣期待嗎?

  • Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

    Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

  • Yeah, thanks for the question, Brian. So, yeah, as we sit here now and the trends that we saw, in late '24, I think we have an opportunity to get some leverage on the other operating line. Obviously, traffic trends will play a role in that as well, but yeah, with the moderating cost we've seen and, you could see some leverage there.

    是的,謝謝你的提問,布萊恩。所以,是的,當我們現在坐在這裡,看到 24 年末的趨勢時,我認為我們有機會在其他營運線上獲得一些影響力。顯然,交通趨勢也會在其中發揮作用,但是,是的,隨著我們已經看到的調節成本,您可以看到其中的一些槓桿作用。

  • As far as the labor hours to traffic, still a lot to learn here in '25, but early indications have us maybe expecting to be somewhere in that -- could be a little bit below 50%, is possible. Again, we don't have a labor model, so things can vary and some of that will also depend upon what the traffic growth looks like.

    就交通工時而言,在 25 年仍有許多東西需要學習,但早期跡象表明我們可能預計會處於這個水平——可能略低於 50%,這是可能的。再說一次,我們沒有勞動模型,所以情況可能會有所不同,其中一些還取決於流量成長的情況。

  • So our operators are staffing the restaurants for the sales they have and the sales they want, and we feel good about that. And obviously, we think 4% to 5% commodity inflation, I'm sorry, labor inflation, so that could put a little bit of pressure on the labor line, probably more in the front half of the year than the back half.

    因此,我們的經營者根據餐廳目前的銷售情況和預期的銷售情況來安排員工,我們對此感到很滿意。顯然,我們認為商品通膨率為 4% 至 5%,對不起,勞動力通膨率,這可能會給勞動力線帶來一點壓力,可能在上半年比下半年更大。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Sarah Senatore, Bank of America.

    美國銀行的莎拉‧塞納托爾 (Sarah Senatore)。

  • Sara Senatore - Analyst

    Sara Senatore - Analyst

  • Oh thank you very much. So just a first quick housekeeping, could you talk about the components of the comp? I just want to make sure we have traffic and mix and price pulled out because Jerry mentioned positive trends from mocktails and I was just wondering if you know you're starting to see that mix turn positive. If that's sort of fully offsetting some of the shift away from alcohol and then and then I'll have another question please.

    噢,非常感謝。那麼,首先進行簡單的概述,您能談談公司的組成部分嗎?我只是想確保我們有流量、組合和價格,因為傑瑞提到了無酒精雞尾酒的積極趨勢,我只是想知道你是否知道你開始看到這種組合變得積極。如果這可以完全抵消遠離酒精的影響,那麼我再問一個問題。

  • Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

    Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

  • Sara, you're talking about the fourth quarter, correct?

    薩拉,你談論的是第四季度,對嗎?

  • Sara Senatore - Analyst

    Sara Senatore - Analyst

  • I am, yes.

    是的。

  • Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

    Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

  • Yeah, so you know we have the 7.7% sales growth with traffic of 4.9%, the check being up 2.8% implies about 30 basis points of negative mix since we were carrying 3.1% pricing. It's still -- it's basically the same story you've heard from us. Alcohol, being negative, is driving that mix and we're seeing some benefit that offsets that negative alcohol mix from entrees and other items. Mocktails are still kind of in the early phase, especially in the fourth quarter. So while a positive contributor, it's a pretty small piece at this point. So we'll see where the mix goes in in 2025, but still seeing some negative alcohol mix to start off the year.

    是的,您知道我們的銷售額成長了 7.7%,客流量成長了 4.9%,支票上漲了 2.8%,意味著約 30 個基點的負組合,因為我們的定價是 3.1%。它仍然——它基本上和您從我們這裡聽到的故事相同。酒精具有負面作用,是造成這種混合的原因,而我們看到主菜和其他食品中的一些好處可以抵消酒精的負面影響。無酒精雞尾酒仍處於早期階段,尤其是在第四季。因此,雖然它是一個積極的貢獻者,但目前它所佔的比重還小。因此,我們將拭​​目以待 2025 年的酒精混合物走向,但在年初仍會看到一些負面的酒精混合物。

  • Sara Senatore - Analyst

    Sara Senatore - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you. And then just the question I had was about looking at like Texas Roadhouse and Bubba's 33. It looks like the sort of maturity curve looks pretty similar if I look at the comp restaurants with maybe some of the higher volumes in the brand-new ones and then it eases and then and then as you sort of steady state goes back. Is that the right way to think about them, which is you see maybe honeymoon and then, over time, very strong positive seems to sales, but the opening volumes tend to be quite high for both.

    好的,謝謝。然後我的疑問就是關於如何看待 Texas Roadhouse 和 Bubba's 33。如果我看一下可比較餐廳,成熟度曲線似乎非常相似,也許一些新餐廳的客流量較大,然後逐漸減緩,然後逐漸恢復穩定狀態。這是正確的思考方式嗎?

  • Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

    Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

  • Yes, Sara, that would be correct. They both have similar patterns, that way of opening in that honeymoon period. Probably feel a little bit more of a honeymoon on the Roadhouse side than the Bubba side. Again, that probably just goes to 30-plus years of name recognition. But in both cases, they open at some great volumes and then over those first three to six months that they tend to trend down a little bit and as they're entering our comp base, we see them beginning to grow on a year-over-year basis.

    是的,薩拉,確實如此。他們都有類似的模式,即蜜月期的開放方式。與 Bubba 那邊相比,Roadhouse 那邊可能更有蜜月的感覺。再說一遍,這可能只是因為 30 多年的知名度。但在這兩種情況下,它們的開盤量都很大,然後在最初的三到六個月內,它們的數量趨於下降,而當它們進入我們的公司基礎時,我們看到它們的數量開始同比增長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jon Tower, Citigroup.

    花旗集團的喬恩‧陶爾 (Jon Tower)。

  • Jon Tower - Analyst

    Jon Tower - Analyst

  • Great, thanks for taking the questions. First, clarification and then a question. The clarification is the 9 or so relocations that you spoke to, Chris, those are not included in the 30 new restaurant openings in '25. Is that accurate?

    太好了,感謝您回答這些問題。首先要澄清一下,然後再提出問題。需要澄清的是,克里斯,您談到的 9 家左右的搬遷餐廳並不包括在 1925 年開設的 30 家新餐廳中。這樣準確嗎?

  • David Monroe - Chief Financial Officer

    David Monroe - Chief Financial Officer

  • That is accurate, Jon.

    確實如此,喬恩。

  • Jon Tower - Analyst

    Jon Tower - Analyst

  • Great, awesome. The question then is, over the past year and particularly starting '25, the industry has certainly grown more promotional and understand that that Texas really doesn't use traditional media methods to advertise and stay in front of the consumer. Can you dig into what exactly the company is doing to remain top of mind for consumers? I know you're doing a lot of things at the local level, including even sponsoring monster truck rallies and such. But can you delve into kind of how you're staying in front of consumers in markets?

    太棒了,太棒了。問題是,在過去的一年裡,特別是從 25 年開始,該行業的宣傳無疑加大,並且人們意識到德克薩斯州確實不會使用傳統媒體的方式來做廣告並出現在消費者面前。您能否深入了解公司具體採取了哪些措施來維持消費者的首要關注?我知道你在地方層級做了很多事情,甚至包括贊助怪物卡車集會等等。但您能否深入探討您如何在市場上保持領先於消費者呢?

  • Gerald Morgan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gerald Morgan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, Jon, thanks. This is Jerry. I think first of all we have a few approaches that we take. We have a local store marketing kind of a boots on the ground. We get out in our communities and really shake hands and do bread runs, but every one of our restaurants has an early dine-in feature that has 11 or 12 items that are at a discounted price during the early hours of that.

    是的,喬恩,謝謝。這是傑瑞。我認為首先我們採取了幾種方法。我們有一家本地商店,進行實地行銷。我們走出去,走進社區,與人們握手、送麵包,我們的每家餐廳都提供提前就餐服務,在早高峰期間,有 11 或 12 種商品可享受折扣價。

  • We have Wild West Wednesday that we talk about that, we've been talking about and prepping on potentially implementing that throughout more. We've got a $5 all day, everyday drink menu that we've implemented last year, which is a 10-ounce margarita that we've brought back and so we have a $5, 10-ounce margarita, which was really a superstar for us for a very long time in the early days, and then a $5 pint beer and a $5 Long Island tea.

    我們有「狂野西部星期三」來談論這個問題,我們一直在談論並準備在更多情況下實施這個問題。去年,我們推出了全天 5 美元的日常飲品菜單,其中包括我們重新推出的 10 盎司瑪格麗塔酒,因此我們有 5 美元、10 盎司的瑪格麗塔酒,這在早期很長一段時間內都是我們的明星產品,然後是 5 美元的品脫啤酒和 5 美元的長島茶。

  • And then, as we blend in these mocktails at $5 also, it is appealing to a different consumer. So the mocktail has really performed well for us overall. It is very early on, but we have a few things that we can again -- and a lot of value is already built into our menu and as we focus on that and again, I think we operate at a high level. We can -- the consumer trusts and believes in what we're doing, and we can get out there and scream louder when it comes to early dine, Wild West Wednesday and our 5-day all day, everyday drink value menu that has been implemented last year.

    然後,當我們將這些無酒精雞尾酒也以 5 美元的價格出售時,它對不同的消費者來說很有吸引力。因此,總體而言,無酒精雞尾酒對我們來說確實表現良好。現在還為時過早,但我們還可以做一些事情——我們的菜單中已經融入了很多價值,當我們再次專注於此時,我認為我們的運作水平很高。我們可以——消費者信任並相信我們所做的事情,我們可以走出去,在提早用餐、狂野西部星期三和去年實施的五天全天日常飲品超值菜單方面大聲疾呼。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brian Bittner, Oppenheimer.

    奧本海默的布萊恩·比特納。

  • Brian Bittner - Analyst

    Brian Bittner - Analyst

  • Hey thanks. Hey guys, as it relates to pricing in 2025, once you put the 1.4% action in place, just can you clarify, does that math put you in the in the 2.5% pricing run rate range from there? And is that what we should expect the rest of the year? Just clarify that and if that's the case, do you want us anticipating maybe a little bit of the leverage on the cost of sales line given your updated commodity outlook maybe offset by some leverage on that other operating line.

    嘿,謝謝。嘿夥計們,至於 2025 年的定價,一旦你實施 1.4% 的行動,你能否澄清一下,這個計算是否會將你置於 2.5% 的定價運行率範圍內?這就是我們對今年剩餘時間的期望嗎?請澄清這一點,如果是這樣的話,考慮到您更新後的商品前景,您是否希望我們預期銷售成本線上的一點槓桿可能會被其他營運線上的一些槓桿所抵消。

  • David Monroe - Chief Financial Officer

    David Monroe - Chief Financial Officer

  • Hey Brian, it's Chris. So we're at 3.1% through the first quarter of 2025, and then 2.2% will roll off at the end of the first quarter, and that's being replaced by the 1.4% that Jerry announced earlier today. So that gets you to 2.3%, starting in the second quarter. And then we have another opportunity to come at that in the fourth quarter we'll take a look at the end of the third quarter, 0.9% would be rolling off.

    嘿,布萊恩,我是克里斯。因此,到 2025 年第一季度,我們的成長率將達到 3.1%,然後第一季末將降至 2.2%,取而代之的是傑瑞今天早些時候宣布的 1.4%。從第二季開始,這一比例將達到 2.3%。然後我們還有另一個機會,在第四季度,我們將看看第三季末,0.9%將會下降。

  • So we'll have another set of conversations with our operators at that point in time. And in terms of t how we're thinking about that, I mean, I think Michael talked about the different areas of the income statement where there's some pressure and some things that we're looking at where we have our guidance is out there. But a lot of what matters is our guest counts. And as the guest count comes in, if we can outperform there, then that helps with the margins and if it doesn't, then that can compress it a bit.

    因此我們將在那時與我們的運營商進行另一輪對話。至於我們如何考慮這一點,我的意思是,我認為邁克爾談到了損益表的不同領域,這些領域存在一些壓力,而我們正在關注的一些事情,我們的指導就在那裡。但更重要的是我們的客人數量。隨著客人數量的增加,如果我們能夠表現出色,那麼這有助於提高利潤率,如果表現不佳,那麼利潤率就會壓縮。

  • And I'll let. I'll let Michael add to that.

    我就讓。我讓麥可補充這一點。

  • Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

    Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

  • Brian, on that cog line specifically, with the upgrade update from 2% to 3% to 3% to 4% commodity inflation, I would, the math would imply, some delevering of cost of sales as you move through the year, maybe not in the first quarter, but certainly into the second quarter in the back half of the year with kind of where the guidance is today.

    布萊恩,具體來說,隨著大宗商品通膨率從 2% 升至 3%,再升至 3% 至 4%,從數學上講,隨著全年的發展,銷售成本會有所降低,也許不是在第一季度,但肯定會在下半年的第二季度出現,與今天的指導水平大致相同。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jake Bartlett, Truist Securities.

    傑克·巴特利特(Jake Bartlett),Truist Securities。

  • Jake Bartlett - Analyst

    Jake Bartlett - Analyst

  • Great, thanks for taking the question. Mine was on the guidance for company-owned development of 30 stores in '25. And I look at what you did in '24 at Roadhouse, in 26 openings and it was the most in quite some time and going back to 2008, so it shows you can do it, you have the capacity to do that. I also had the impression that you were on the cusp potentially of accelerating development at Bubba's. So you put those two things together and it seems to me like maybe you could be a little bit north of the 30 stores in '25. What's wrong with that thinking or maybe there is some potential conservatism in your guidance.

    太好了,謝謝您回答這個問題。我的目標是在 25 年開設 30 家公司直營商店。我看了看你在 24 年在 Roadhouse 的表現,在 26 場開幕式上,這是自 2008 年以來相當長一段時間以來最多的一次,這表明你可以做到,你有能力做到這一點。我還覺得您有可能加速 Bubba's 的發展。所以,如果你把這兩件事放在一起,在我看來,你可能可以在 25 年的時候將商店數量稍微超過 30 家。這種想法有什麼問題,或者你的指導中可能存在一些潛在的保守主義。

  • Gerald Morgan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gerald Morgan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Jake, this is Jerry. Yeah, I'll tell you, we focus on 20 to 25 Roadhouses every year and, in '24, we were able to get four Bubba's open. I believe we have seven on our report for '25, and, we're continuing to try to get a little north of that as we get into '26 and so that's kind of the approach that we really take. We like to be in that 30ish number.

    傑克,這是傑瑞。是的,我告訴你,我們每年專注於 20 至 25 家 Roadhouses,而在 1924 年,我們成功開設了 4 家 Bubba’s。我相信我們的 25 年報告中已經有了七個,當我們進入 26 年時,我們會繼續嘗試將​​這個數字稍微向北推一點,所以這就是我們真正採取的方法。我們希望這個數字能達到 30 左右。

  • I believe that opening restaurants and hiring 200 people and a management team and all of the time and effort that we put into it, that's the right number for us to really open a quality restaurant at the volume that we're at. You only get one time to make a first impression, and we put a lot of time and effort into those openings, so.

    我相信,開設餐廳、僱用 200 名員工和一個管理團隊以及我們投入的所有時間和精力,對於我們以目前的規模開設一家真正優質的餐廳來說,這個數字是正確的。你只有一次機會給人留下第一印象,我們為這次印象投入了大量的時間和精力。

  • I want to be very cautious of trying to open that up too much. I'd rather be very good at opening 25-30 restaurants on a normal basis in a good cadence with two brands, and then as we blend in Jaggers as we continue to focus on that down the road, it -- and, obviously, our international businesses. So I feel really good about that number for us. Sometimes we will creep up a little bit, sometimes we'll be maybe a little low, but that that's a really good number in a space for us to be in to open quality restaurants and make a great first impression.

    我要非常謹慎,不要嘗試過度開放這一點。我寧願非常擅長以良好的節奏在正常的基礎上開設 25 到 30 家餐廳,然後當我們融入 Jaggers 時,我們將繼續專注於這一點——當然還有我們的國際業務。所以我對我們的這個數字感到非常滿意。有時我們會稍微提高一點,有時可能會降低一點,但對於我們來說,這是一個非常好的數字,可以讓我們開設高品質的餐廳並給人留下良好的第一印象。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeffrey Bernstein, Barclays.

    巴克萊銀行的傑弗裡·伯恩斯坦。

  • Jeffrey Bernstein - Analyst

    Jeffrey Bernstein - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you very much. Two questions. The first one just on the quarter to date comp just to clarify, I know you reported the two, nine, and Chris, I appreciate all the color. It sounds like you're saying maybe 150 basis point headwind from weather and shifts and whatnot so that the true trend is maybe a 4.4 or so.

    偉大的。非常感謝。兩個問題。第一個只是關於截至目前季度的業績,只是為了澄清一下,我知道您報告了 2、9,克里斯,我很欣賞所有這些細節。聽起來你說的可能是由於天氣、變化等因素造成的 150 個基點的逆風,所以真正的趨勢可能是 4.4 左右。

  • But just looking at your monthly comps, once you get past January, for better or for worse, your compares become 500 basis points harder starting in February for the rest of the year. It seemed like January would be the easiest compare for whatever reason. So as we think about the rest of the year, barring any major change in the consumer. Is it fair to assume that the '25 comp would be much more tempered from the 8.5%, I think you did in '24.

    但僅看你每個月的比較數據,一旦過了 1 月份,無論好壞,從 2 月份開始,在今年剩餘時間內,你的比較難度就會增加 500 個基點。無論出於什麼原因,似乎一月是最容易比較的。因此,我們考慮今年剩餘時間的情況,除非消費者出現重大變化。是否可以公平地假設 25 年的薪酬水準會比 8.5% 低很多,我認為 24 年的薪酬水準就是這樣的。

  • I'm wondering whether you would agree with that or whether there's something wrong with that logic and whether within that you've seen any sign of change in consumer behavior above and beyond just the weather and the holiday shifts. And then I had one follow up.

    我想知道您是否同意這種說法,或者這種邏輯是否有問題,以及您是否看到除了天氣和假期變化之外的消費者行為變化的跡象。然後我進行了一次跟進。

  • Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

    Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

  • Yeah. Hey, Jeff, this is Michael. I'll try to address that one. So I think you have to be a little careful trying to compare it to the same-store sales growth for '24 because of a different level of pricing. So I'll adjust the question a little bit and we have 4.4% traffic growth in 2024 and will we see something like that again in '25?

    是的。嘿,傑夫,我是麥可。我會盡力解決這個問題。因此,我認為在將其與 24 年同店銷售成長進行比較時,你必須小心謹慎,因為定價水平不同。因此,我稍微調整一下問題,2024 年我們的流量將成長 4.4%,那麼 2025 年我們會再次看到類似的情況嗎?

  • I don't think we can answer that. I'll tell you our operators, our staff, and ready to serve the guests. They're out there building those relationships. We're seeing our highest-volume stores growing at the highest rate. So we think everything is in place for us to continue to grow and serve more guests. How that will exactly play out, it is a little still, to be determined and, but we're ready to serve the gas.

    我想我們無法回答這個問題。我會告訴你們我們的操作員,我們的工作人員,隨時準備為客人服務。他們正在那裡建立這些關係。我們看到,我們銷售量最大的商店正以最高的速度成長。因此,我們認為一切都已準備就緒,可以繼續發展並為更多的客人提供服務。具體會如何發展,目前仍有點不確定,但我們已準備好提供天然氣。

  • David Monroe - Chief Financial Officer

    David Monroe - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, and I'll just add on to that. If you just looked at January, we were continuing the role. So I think it felt that felt really good. And these last three weeks have been breathtaking in terms of all of the things that have come against the business. So and we're still flat. So I still felt pretty good about that and our progress this year.

    是的,我只是想補充一點。如果你只看一月份,你會發現我們還在繼續扮演這個角色。所以我認為那種感覺真的很好。過去三週,公司業務遭遇的不利影響令人震驚。因此我們仍然持平。所以我仍然對此以及我們今年的進步感到非常滿意。

  • Jeffrey Bernstein - Analyst

    Jeffrey Bernstein - Analyst

  • Got it, and then my follow-up was just on the new units, you mentioned you're going to be opening up your 800 in total, which I know it's more like 650 for the pure Texas Roadhouse brand. I'm wondering if you could just give us an update in terms of where you currently see that ultimate opportunity. It seems like the number keeps going higher as you're having success in smaller markets.

    明白了,然後我的後續問題只是關於新單位,你提到你總共將開設 800 家門店,我知道對於純 Texas Roadhouse 品牌來說,這個數字更像是 650 家。我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹一下您目前看到的最終機會。由於你們在較小的市場中取得成功,所以這個數字似乎還在不斷上升。

  • And if you could maybe just share some of the metrics around the cost to build and the margins and returns on those new units, I know the cost to build have been running higher, but just any color on that would be great. Thank you.

    如果您能分享一些有關建設成本以及這些新單位的利潤和回報的指標,我知道建設成本一直在上升,但如果能提供任何細節就更好了。謝謝。

  • Gerald Morgan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gerald Morgan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, Jeffrey, I'll start off. Yeah, our target is still 900 for Texas Roadhouse, and we'll continue to evaluate that over time, but we feel very comfortable with that number which we upped it from 700 to 800, I think a couple of years ago and we are excited to have number 800 within the whole portfolio, including Texas Roadhouse, Bubba's, Jaggers, and international. So, as well on our way to some of our internal goals of a of 1,000 between the brands.

    是的,傑弗裡,我先開始了。是的,我們的目標仍然是德州客棧擁有 900 家門市,我們會隨著時間的推移繼續評估這一目標,但我們對這個數字感到非常滿意,我想幾年前我們就把它從 700 家提高到了 800 家,我們很高興在整個投資組合中擁有 800 家商店,包括德州客棧、Bubba's's 家店。因此,我們也努力實現品牌間 1,000 個的內部目標。

  • So but if any of the additional cost, I'll let Michael speak to that for just a little bit.

    所以,但如果有任何額外的費用,我會讓麥可稍微談談。

  • Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

    Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

  • Yeah, Jeff, for 2025, we're expecting the average investment cost to be about $8.5 million or $8.6 million. It's an all-in investment cost, including a 10 times rent factor for both Texas Roadhouse and Bubba's. And on the Bubba side, that's really flat with 2024. For Roadhouse, that's up a little bit and some of that has to do with where the locations are. Do a few more and, in California with higher rents or higher building costs, that can shift it a little bit.

    是的,傑夫,到 2025 年,我們預計平均投資成本約為 850 萬美元或 860 萬美元。這是全投資成本,其中包括 Texas Roadhouse 和 Bubba’s 的 10 倍租金係數。而就 Bubba 而言,這與 2024 年持平。對於 Roadhouse 來說,情況有所好轉,部分原因在於其地理位置。多做一些,在加州,由於租金或建築成本更高,這可能會有所改變。

  • So we still feel very comfortable about meeting or exceeding our targets, which is a mid-teen IRR for new store development and we watch that very closely and still are meeting or exceeding that so we think we have a -- still tremendous opportunity there.

    因此,我們仍然對達到或超過我們的目標感到非常有信心,即新店開發的中間水平的內部收益率 (IRR),我們密切關注這一點,並且仍然在達到或超過這一目標,因此我們認為我們仍然有巨大的機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Gregory Francfort, Guggenheim Partners.

    古根漢合夥人公司的 Gregory Francfort。

  • Gregory Francfort - Analyst

    Gregory Francfort - Analyst

  • Hey, thanks for the question. I was wondering if you could just give a little bit more color on the wage inflation and what you're seeing there because it's picked up kind of each of the three quarters of this year and running above, not above, but at the high end of your guidance for next year at 5%. What is that just maybe laps in comparisons I guess what are you seeing kind of at the at the store level or the operator level that may give us a better look at. That. Thanks.

    嘿,謝謝你的提問。我想知道您是否可以更詳細地介紹一下工資通膨情況以及您所看到的情況,因為今年三個季度中工資通膨都有所上升,並且已經高於,不是高於,而是達到了您對明年 5% 的預期上限。我猜,在比較中,您在商店層面或營運商層面看到了什麼,可能會讓我們更了解。那。謝謝。

  • Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

    Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

  • Yeah, hey, Greg, it's Michael. I can talk to that. So certainly, again, we got it to 4% to 5%. We came at a 4.6% and you know some of those things are, the higher Q4, may have been contemplated. And there it is a little bit more wage inflation at the end of the year and, early in the year where you see some state mandated changes coming into effect.

    是的,嘿,格雷格,我是麥可。我可以談一下這個。因此我們再次將其提高到了 4% 到 5%。我們的成長率達到了 4.6%,您知道其中一些因素,例如更高的第四季成長率,可能已經被考慮到了。在年底和年初,薪資通膨會略有加劇,一些國家強制要求的改革措施將開始生效。

  • But we think the underlying wage inflation has peaked and so whether it's going to come down, I don't know about that, but you're not really seeing a large upward take in the wage inflation and certainly, health insurance costs and the premiums associated with that. So the benefits that we offer continue, they come at a higher price and that's factored into our assumptions, but, at this time, we feel very good about being in that 4% to 5% range for, 2025.

    但我們認為潛在的工資通膨已達到頂峰,因此它是否會下降,我不知道,但你並沒有真正看到工資通膨和健康保險成本以及與之相關的保費大幅上漲。因此,我們提供的福利將會持續下去,但價格會更高,這也已計入我們的假設中,但目前,我們對 2025 年 4% 到 5% 的成長率感到非常滿意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Dennis Geiger, UBS.

    瑞銀的丹尼斯·蓋格。

  • Dennis Geiger - Analyst

    Dennis Geiger - Analyst

  • Great, thanks guys. I'm curious how you think about your traffic outperformance GAAP to the industry. Outperformance has been significant for a while. You expanded it pretty notably last year, I think. I know it's more the output of all the work that you and the team, the teams do, but do you think about that going forward at all, that traffic GAAP as you make decisions on pricing or otherwise, and if you do think about it, any view on what that GAAP looks like going forward or any kind of broad thoughts on the GAAP? Thank you.

    太好了,謝謝大家。我很好奇,您如何看待您的流量超越行業 GAAP。一段時間以來,其表現一直非常出色。我認為,去年你們已經大幅擴大了它。我知道這更多的是你和團隊所做的所有工作的產出,但你在製定定價或其他決策時,是否會考慮 GAAP 的走向,如果你考慮過,你對 GAAP 未來的發展有何看法,或者對 GAAP 有什麼廣泛的看法?謝謝。

  • Gerald Morgan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gerald Morgan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Dennis. This is Jerry. We always are trying to do the best that we can and stay within the value that we build into the menu and, if the GAAP that you're talking about our competitors, we do try to pay attention and be educated, and that's part of those phone calls that we make with our operators in their local communities and it's important for us to be a very value-based offering that operates at a very high level. So I think we'll always try to be very competitive in that side of it as we have been in the past, and we'll keep that conservative approach as best we can and believe that we're doing right by our consumer and yet taking care of our business at the same time.

    謝謝,丹尼斯。這是傑瑞。我們始終盡力做到最好,並保持在菜單中構建的價值,如果您談論的是我們的競爭對手的 GAAP,我們確實會努力關注和學習,這是我們與當地社區的運營商進行的電話聯繫的一部分,對於我們來說,提供以非常高的價值為基礎的服務非常重要。因此,我認為我們將始終像過去一樣努力在該領域保持競爭力,我們將盡可能保持保守的態度,並相信我們能為消費者做出正確的事情,同時照顧好我們的業務。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Lauren Silberman, Deutsche Bank.

    德意志銀行的勞倫·西爾伯曼。

  • Lauren Silberman - Analyst

    Lauren Silberman - Analyst

  • Thank you very much. I wanted to follow up on the quarterly trends in February in particular being flat. What do you think is driving the step down in coms relative to January? Is it weather that's where our tougher compares? I think we're all trying to concerned what's driving the fall off just broadly. Any differences you can share across regions to provide a bit more insight. Thank you.

    非常感謝。我想追蹤二月份的季度趨勢,特別是持平的趨勢。您認為與一月相比,通訊量下降的原因是什麼?我們的強項是天氣嗎?我想我們都在試圖了解造成這種下滑的根本原因。您可以分享不同地區之間的任何差異,以提供更多見解。謝謝。

  • David Monroe - Chief Financial Officer

    David Monroe - Chief Financial Officer

  • Hey Lauren, I'll start, and Michael may have some other thoughts as well, but yeah, I mean, you've had now more, I think a dozen named winter storms this year, and they've gone across geographies. They've gone broader than what we've seen in the last several years. You've had flu and COVID and RSV and all, and schools closing and the entire communities being shut down. And it's just, it's been across the country, and there certainly have been some areas of the country hit harder than others, but that's really, when we talked about other external factors, those are just a few.

    嘿,勞倫,我先開始,邁克爾可能也有其他的想法,但是,是的,我的意思是,今年你已經經歷了更多的冬季風暴,我想有十幾個,它們跨越了不同的地區。它們的範圍比我們過去幾年所見的更為廣泛。你們感染了流感、新冠肺炎、呼吸道合胞病毒等,學校關閉,整個社區關閉。這種現像在全國範圍內發生,當然有些地區受到的打擊比其他地區更嚴重,但事實上,當我們談到其他外部因素時,這些只是其中的一部分。

  • That we're seeing and I really feel like that that's what's driven, a lot of the results for that three-week period. But again, having said that, I mean, our operators are still, I mean, they're running fantastic shifts. They're doing a great job. They're serving our customers. We had a fantastic Valentine's Day. So there's a lot of positive to pull out of all that, but I really think there are -- there have been a number of factors that have hit us.

    我們看到並且我真的覺得這就是推動這三週內取得很多成果的因素。但是,話雖如此,我們的操作員仍然在進行出色的輪班。他們做得很好。他們正在為我們的客戶服務。我們度過了一個美好的情人節。所以,從這一切中可以得出很多積極的結論,但我確實認為,有很多因素對我們造成了影響。

  • Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

    Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

  • Yeah, and Chris, you hit on that, and I'll reiterate again, the Valentine shift had a 2% or more impact on those three weeks of our February period. So, and so we're not even trying to measure the impact of cold weather and these other factors that Chris mentioned. So we think some of those are just out of our control.

    是的,克里斯,你說到了這一點,我再重申一遍,情人節的變化對我們二月那三週產生了 2% 或更多的影響。所以,我們甚至沒有嘗試衡量寒冷天氣和克里斯提到的其他因素的影響。因此我們認為其中一些是我們無法控制的。

  • When I look at our regional trends, it makes me feel the same way Chris is talking about. That the underlying trends are good. The Western US certainly has outperformed, in the first part of the year and that's an area that maybe, he's either used to winter weather a little bit more or hasn't been as impacted by some of the snow that has moved across the country.

    當我看到我們區域的趨勢時,我感受到了克里斯所說的同樣的感覺。基本趨勢是好的。今年上半年,美國西部的表現確實優於其他地區,這個地區可能要么已經習慣了冬季天氣,要么沒有受到全國降雪的影響。

  • So I look at the West as an example of maybe what the more normalized, numbers are, and I said it a little bit earlier, but our highest volume stores are still growing at a nice rate and so I don't believe any of this is a slowdown in the guests or the consumer's desire to come to Texas Roadhouse. I just believe we're in a little bit of an environment right now where the consumer is just acting a little bit differently, and I think you're hearing that from others as well.

    因此,我將西部視為一個更正常化的例子,我之前就說過,但我們銷量最高的商店仍然在以良好的速度增長,因此,我認為,這並不是客人數量或消費者前往德州客棧的意願有所減弱。我只是相信,我們現在所處的環境中,消費者的行為略有不同,我想你也從其他人那裡聽說過這種事。

  • Lauren Silberman - Analyst

    Lauren Silberman - Analyst

  • Thank you for that. And if I could just ask on the commodity inflation, step up to 3% to 4% in the back half, but I guess 2Q to 4Q. As we exit '25 and going into '26, is that the right way to think about it? Are you anticipating the same period of elevated commodities? And remind us how long it takes to sort of rebuild herds. Thank you.

    謝謝你。如果我可以問商品通膨率的話,下半年通膨率會升至 3%至 4%,但我猜是在第二季至第四季。當我們告別25年、迎接26年之際,這是正確的思考方式嗎?您是否預期大宗商品價格也將出現同樣的上漲趨勢?並提醒我們重建畜群需要多長時間。謝謝。

  • Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

    Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

  • Yeah, so Lauren, two parts in there. Unfortunately, I'm not going to have a lot of info. We're just starting off 2025 here, so not even to try to venture into what 2026 could look like. There's supply issues, demand issues that all play, into that. But to your second part of the question is it does take a little bit of time to rebuild, the herds.

    是的,勞倫,有兩個部分。不幸的是,我沒有太多的資訊。我們才剛踏入 2025 年,因此還無法預測 2026 年會是什麼樣子。這其中存在供應問題、需求問題等。但對於你提出的第二部分問題,重建牛群確實需要一點時間。

  • You need to see ranchers retain cattle for breeding. We have not seen a lot of that happening yet, so we will -- it would not be surprising to see us remaining in a cattle cycle for some time now. Now what that means to inflation or to prices, there's a lot of other factors that play into that. So yeah, that's probably as much as we can provide on '26 and beyond at this point.

    您需要看到牧場主保留牛隻用於繁殖。目前我們還沒有看到很多這樣的情況發生,所以我們會——如果我們現在還處於牛週期一段時間內,這並不奇怪。那麼這對通貨膨脹或價格意味著什麼?是的,這可能就是我們目前在 26 年及以後所能提供的全部了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andy Barish, Jefferies.

    傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的安迪巴里什 (Andy Barish)。

  • Andy Barish - Analyst

    Andy Barish - Analyst

  • Hey guys, I'm just wondering on the guest management update or 2.0. I mean, could it be in certain markets or obviously restaurants that just the quote times are getting a little bit lofty given how busy you guys are and is there something tied together with the digital kitchen that you know kind of can work on. Maybe bringing wait times down a little bit just wondering if that's something where you know you've seen some guests kind of you know walk out at a certain point.

    嘿夥計們,我只是想知道客人管理更新或 2.0。我的意思是,考慮到你們的忙碌程度,在某些特定的市場或明顯的餐廳中,報價時間可能會變得有點高,並且是否有與數位廚房相關的、你們知道可以做的事情。也許可以減少等待時間,只是想知道是否會看到有些客人在某個時候走出去。

  • Gerald Morgan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gerald Morgan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Hey Andy, it's Jerry. Yeah, I think our AGM 2.0 is a software that that we decided to work on ourselves and customize it to handle some of those longer waits and, obviously, as we continue, I believe we're close to half of our of the concept has got that upgrade, and we will continue to focus on the digital kitchen rollout and the AGM 2.0 and after they are completely done, then we can really evaluate some of the things that the whole concept can gain from.

    嘿安迪,我是傑瑞。是的,我認為我們的 AGM 2.0 是一個軟體,我們決定自己開發並對其進行定制,以處理一些較長的等待時間,顯然,隨著我們的繼續,我相信我們的概念中有近一半已經得到了升級,我們將繼續專注於數字廚房的推出和 AGM 2.0,在它們完全完成後,我們就可以真正評估整個概念可以從中獲得的一些概念。

  • But I think it's really about table efficiencies. It is about that waitlist management side. So you know we're feeling very good about where it's at and what it's doing. And, more importantly, our operators are wanting it. They see the value in it and that's really the driver behind both the digital kitchen and the AGM 2.0. So we feel very comfortable going forward.

    但我認為這實際上與桌面效率有關。這是關於候補名單管理的內容。所以你知道我們對它的現狀和所做的事情感到非常滿意。而且更重要的是,我們的運營商也想要它。他們看到了其中的價值,而這正是數位廚房和 AGM 2.0 背後的驅動力。因此,我們對未來的發展感到非常放心。

  • Andy Barish - Analyst

    Andy Barish - Analyst

  • Oh thanks Jerry. That's great color and just one quick follow up, Michael, on Easter being later this year, is there anything we should think about between, 1Q, 2Q, March, April, longer, later Lent or anything.

    哦,謝謝傑瑞。這顏色很棒,邁克爾,我只想快速跟進一下,今年的復活節會晚一些,我們是否應該考慮一下在第一季、第二季、三月、四月、更長的時間、更晚的大齋期或其他時間之間。

  • Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

    Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

  • Yeah, so this is a good one. So Easter is in our fiscal second quarter for 2025 and 2024. However, it is when we give you all comparable sales for the first quarter, we will compare the 13 weeks of 2025 to the comparable weeks of '24, which are weeks 2 through 14. Easter was in week 14 in 2024.

    是的,這很好。因此復活節位於我們 2025 年和 2024 年財政第二季。但是,當我們為您提供第一季的所有可比銷售額時,我們會將 2025 年的 13 週與 24 年的可比週(即第 2 週至第 14 週)進行比較。2024 年的復活節是第 14 週。

  • So the Q1 comps will probably have about a 30%, sorry, a 30 basis point benefit from -- the Easter is not a higher-volume day for us. So the Q1 comps at a 30 basis point benefit from having no Easter in Q1 in 25, but having it in '24, and then the reverse will happen in the second quarter about a 30 basis point headwind to comps from it being in our 2025 base, but not in our 2024.

    因此,第一季的可比較銷售額可能會有大約 30% 的收益,抱歉,是 30 個基點的收益——復活節對我們來說不是一個交易量較大的日子。因此,25 年第一季沒有復活節但 24 年有復活節,對第一季度的可比銷售額來說,將帶來 30 個基點的收益,而第二季度的情況將出現逆轉,與我們 2025 年的基準相比,可比銷售額將面臨約 30 個基點的阻力,但 2024 年則不會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andrew Strelzik, BMO.

    安德魯·斯特雷爾齊克(BMO)。

  • Andrew Strelzik - Analyst

    Andrew Strelzik - Analyst

  • Thanks for taking the question. I wanted to ask you about the off-premise business and recently, you indicated that the operators have kind of growing confidence in executing and the quality of that channel, and maybe increasing willingness to put more focus behind it to drive growth. So I guess I'm curious if there's anything planned or that we should think about for 2025. If you see that kind of an incremental growth opportunity for this year, is that more kind of a longer-term opportunity that you would do that? Thanks.

    感謝您回答這個問題。我想問您關於場外業務的問題,最近,您表示運營商對該渠道的執行和質量越來越有信心,並且可能越來越願意投入更多精力來推動增長。所以我很好奇 2025 年是否有任何計劃或我們應該考慮的事情。如果您認為今年存在這種增量成長機會,那麼這是否會成為您會選擇的長期機會?謝謝。

  • Gerald Morgan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gerald Morgan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Hey, Andrew, it's Jerry. Yeah, I think we're going to hold our position. We do like it being available for our Jaggers concept and as we get closer to completing all of the Bubba's locations with it, and we do have the one Texas Roadhouse, but as of right now, we will continue to hold on that side of it and see where we go. But we're talking about to go or off-premise from that side of it. Delivery.

    嘿,安德魯,我是傑瑞。是的,我認為我們會堅持我們的立場。我們確實喜歡它可用於我們的 Jaggers 概念,而且我們越來越接近完成所有 Bubba's 門市,我們確實有一家 Texas Roadhouse,但是就目前而言,我們將繼續堅持這一目標,看看我們會走向何方。但我們談論的是從那邊去或離開那邊。送貨。

  • Andrew Strelzik - Analyst

    Andrew Strelzik - Analyst

  • Yeah. I was really more you were talking about the to go side.

    是的。我更想知道的是,你正在談論的是去的那一邊。

  • Gerald Morgan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gerald Morgan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • To go side? Okay. Michael will share a thought on that, but --

    去那邊?好的。麥可會分享對此的想法,但是--

  • Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

    Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

  • Yeah, I mean, our to go as we continue to see great demand on the to go side and seeing increase the occurrences, the percentage 13%, was up year over year. So it continues to be something that the guests appreciate. And I think our restaurants have our operators have gotten better about executing on the to go and having the plans in place. They know how important it is to quote, accurate wait times and make sure everything's in the bag, and we just keep getting better and better at that and the guest is appreciating that and coming back for more.

    是的,我的意思是,我們繼續看到出行方面的巨大需求,並且看到出行次數的增加,百分比為 13%,同比增長。因此這仍然是一件讓客人欣賞的事情。我認為我們的餐廳和經營者在執行外賣和製定計劃方面已經做得更好了。他們知道報價、準確的等待時間以及確保一切都井然有序是多麼重要,我們在這方面做得越來越好,客人也對此表示讚賞並再次光臨。

  • David Monroe - Chief Financial Officer

    David Monroe - Chief Financial Officer

  • And during the first 7 weeks of this year we've seen more to go, and again that's likely because people are not being able to come in and dine, somebody in the family may be sick and so we've seen some more -- some definite improvement in that regard as well.

    今年前 7 週,我們看到有更多的人要去,這很可能是因為人們不能進來吃飯,家裡有人可能生病了,所以我們看到更多——這方面的情況也有了明顯的改善。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jim Salera, Stephens.

    吉姆·薩萊拉、史蒂芬斯。

  • James Salera - Analyst

    James Salera - Analyst

  • Guy, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I appreciate all the color around year-to-date sales trends and the tracking component in '24. If we think about the drivers of the traffic performance in '24 and kind of the composition between existing guest frequency and then new guests coming to the brand because of the value proposition. Do you have any way to quantify how much each of those contributed and then maybe the way you're thinking about either increasing the frequency of those new guests in '25 or continuing to bring new guests into the into the pipeline in '25?

    蓋伊,下午好。感謝您回答我的問題。我很欣賞今年迄今為止的銷售趨勢和’24 年的跟踪部分的所有細節。如果我們考慮24年客流量表現的驅動因素,以及現有客人頻率與因價值主張而來到該品牌的新客人之間的組成。您有什麼方法可以量化每個貢獻有多大嗎?

  • Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

    Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

  • Yeah. Hey, Jim, it's Michael. So that is something that's pretty challenging to be able to separate out. I do believe we continue to see our existing guests continue to come and dine with us. And the goal of our local store marketing program is to attract new people into the restaurant.

    是的。嘿,吉姆,我是麥可。因此,將其分離出來是相當有挑戰性的。我確實相信我們會繼續看到現有的客人繼續來我們這裡用餐。我們當地商店行銷計劃的目標是吸引新顧客到餐廳。

  • So I think that is occurring as well, and I think, we will continue to work on doing that and that's why we stay very true to who we are and very much focused on the guest experience. So we give that legendary experience to each and every guest. I don't know if necessarily anything we want to be doing differently in 2025, except continuing to screen the value proposition and provide a great experience for those guests who are choosing to come in and dine with us.

    所以我認為這也正在發生,而且我認為我們將繼續努力做到這一點,這就是為什麼我們始終忠於自己的定位並高度關注客人的體驗。因此,我們為每一位客人提供這種傳奇的體驗。我不知道我們在 2025 年是否一定要做些不同的事情,除了繼續篩選價值主張並為選擇來我們這裡用餐的客人提供良好的體驗。

  • James Salera - Analyst

    James Salera - Analyst

  • But maybe if I could ask a quick one on Bubba's too. We've seen a lot of kind of value centric messaging from other full-service operators, particularly around like burgers and wing deals. Have you ever given out the average at Bubba's, and if not, how do you feel like that stacks up relative to some of the other value offerings we see in full service, particularly around those like said like burger and wing options.

    但也許我也可以快速問一個關於 Bubba 的問題。我們從其他全方位服務業者那裡看到了很多以價值為中心的訊息,特別是圍繞漢堡和雞翅的交易。您是否曾經給出過 Bubba's 的平均價格?

  • Gerald Morgan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gerald Morgan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And Jim, this is Jerry. I feel really good about our pricing on the Bubba's side with the burgers, the pizzas, and the wings, and really just in general menu. So we do a lot of work on that side of it too. We do have a Monday night we have a burger special, and then we do focus on a Tuesday night pizza special and knock a little bit off of there, but it really is the quality and the variety that you have to choose from that I think really makes it stand out and the burger is the star of the show over at Bubba's 33.

    吉姆,這是傑瑞。我對我們的 Bubba's 漢堡、披薩、雞翅以及一般菜單的定價感到非常滿意。因此我們在這方面也做了很多工作。我們確實在周一晚上有漢堡特價,然後我們確實專注於週二晚上的披薩特價,並且會稍微降低一些,但我認為真正讓它脫穎而出的是我們可以選擇的品質和多樣性,而漢堡是 Bubba's 33 的明星。

  • Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

    Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

  • And Jim, with pizza being a component of the check, it makes it a little bit harder to give an accurate per person average, but it's probably more than the $20 per person. But again, it's a little bit harder to get to a fully accurate number at Bubba's versus a Roadhouse given the pizza.

    吉姆,由於披薩是包含在賬單裡的,所以給出準確的人均花費有點困難,但可能超過每人 20 美元。但是,考慮到披薩的價格,Bubba's 和 Roadhouse 的披薩價格相比,要得出完全準確的數字有點困難。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Logan Reich, RBC Capital Markets.

    加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Logan Reich。

  • Logan Reich - Analyst

    Logan Reich - Analyst

  • Thanks evening guys, thanks for thanks for taking the question. Just a quick one on the consumer and any sort of changes you guys are seeing, in different demographic or income cohorts. Are you guys seeing anything, different recently? And then if you could just comment on anything you guys are seeing on your guys' sort of value proposition relative to what consumers are seeing in the grocery store.

    謝謝大家晚上好,謝謝你們回答這個問題。我只想簡單談談消費者以及你們在不同的人口統計或收入群體中看到的任何變化。大家最近有發現什麼不同嗎?然後,如果您能就您所看到的任何與消費者在雜貨店看到的價值主張相關的內容進行評論的話。

  • David Monroe - Chief Financial Officer

    David Monroe - Chief Financial Officer

  • Hey, Logan, it's Chris. We don't really break it out in that regard. And so we're really not seeing any sort of change in behavior. There's not any matriculation close, more into the value part of the menu or anything like that. Every, everything is, has been, proceeding as it has been historically for us, at least over the last couple of years. And we are -- we do watch the grocery prices and we are certainly mindful that that that that's one of our competitors is the ability to cook at home.

    嘿,洛根,我是克里斯。我們在這方面並沒有真正突破。因此我們實際上沒有看到任何行為上的改變。沒有任何入學限制,更多的是菜單的價值部分或類似的東西。一切事物都按照歷史進程進行,至少過去幾年是如此。我們確實關注食品雜貨的價格,我們也確實意識到我們的競爭對手之一就是在家做飯的能力。

  • And so we certainly have that in mind as we have those conversations that Jerry talked about with our local store operators. And we want to, we've said screen value three ore 4 times today. We want to continue doing that. And that is in part why we're very mindful about these price increases and keeping them modest. We're competing on a number of levels, but also at the grocery and so we're watching that as well.

    因此,當我們與傑瑞討論與當地商店經營者進行這些對話時,我們當然會考慮到這一點。我們想要的是,今天我們已經討論了三、四次螢幕價值。我們希望繼續這樣做。這也是為什麼我們如此謹慎地對待價格上漲並將其維持在適度水平的原因之一。我們在多個層面上競爭,包括在雜貨店方面,因此我們也在關注這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Peter Saleh, BTIG.

    彼得·薩利赫(Peter Saleh),BTIG。

  • Peter Saleh - Analyst

    Peter Saleh - Analyst

  • Hey, great, thanks for taking the question. Kind of in the same vein. I think in the past when we've spoken about the commodity basket and beef inflation, one of the factors that went into determining the amount of inflation or lack thereof was the amount of demand in the grocery or promotions in the grocery store at retail.

    嘿,太好了,謝謝你回答這個問題。有點類似。我認為,過去當我們談論商品籃子和牛肉通膨時,決定通膨量或缺乏通膨的因素之一是雜貨店的需求量或零售雜貨店的促銷量。

  • Just curious if you guys are seeing incremental promotions in the grocery aisle. Is that factoring at all into the increased commodity inflation basket that you're expecting for 2025? And then also anything we should be aware of on tariffs, any exposure to Canada and Mexico at all?

    只是好奇你們是否看到食品雜貨貨架上的促銷活動增加。您預計 2025 年大宗商品通膨籃子將會增加嗎?另外,我們還應該了解有關關稅的任何信息,對加拿大和墨西哥有任何影響嗎?

  • David Monroe - Chief Financial Officer

    David Monroe - Chief Financial Officer

  • Okay, so this is Chris. I'll start with what we're seeing in grocery and then I'll let Jerry speak to the second part of your question. Right now, and you're correct, as we looked at 2024, the fact that the grocery stores were not putting specials on things like rib eye and other cuts of beef did seem to dampen some of the demand from the retail side, and that helped with the cost picture for us during 2024.

    好的,這是克里斯。我先從我們在雜貨店看到的情況開始,然後讓傑瑞回答你問題的第二部分。現在,你是對的,當我們展望 2024 年時,雜貨店沒有對肋眼牛排和其他牛肉塊進行特價銷售,這似乎確實抑制了零售方面的部分需求,這有助於我們了解 2024 年的成本狀況。

  • We haven't seen anything demonstrably different in 2025 thus far, and really what we're looking at in terms of moving the guidance up was really just what we're seeing from our procurement team and what they're talking about with our with our suppliers and what we understand is going on in the beef market. So that's the main driver there. So nothing has changed in terms of what we're seeing at least so far, at grocery and in terms of running specials.

    到目前為止,我們還沒有看到 2025 年有任何明顯的不同,我們在上調指導價方面真正考慮的只是我們的採購團隊所看到的,以及他們與我們的供應商所討論的內容,以及我們所了解的牛肉市場正在發生的事情。這就是主要的驅動因素。因此,就我們目前所看到的情況而言,無論是在食品雜貨方面還是在特價商品方面,都沒有任何變化。

  • Gerald Morgan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gerald Morgan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, and then on the -- all the other things that are being discussed out there, we're very well aware our contacts in Washington DC keep us posted on any of the activities and the talks that are going on. Again, we won't know until for sure that those things come through, but we are paying attention. We are trying to keep our ear to the ground and be aware of anything that would have an impact in the business in any way, shape, or form.

    是的,然後關於——正在討論的所有其他事情,我們非常清楚,我們在華盛頓特區的聯絡人會隨時向我們通報正在進行的任何活動和會談。再說一遍,我們只有在確定這些事情是否會實現之後才會知道,但我們會密切注意。我們正密切關注並注意任何可能以任何形式對業務產生影響的事件。

  • Peter Saleh - Analyst

    Peter Saleh - Analyst

  • Great. And can I just follow up on the share buyback, I know a new authorization. Any thoughts on how aggressive you guys would be with this buyback? You've got plenty of capital sitting on the balance sheet. Just curious your thoughts, given where the shares are today.

    偉大的。我可以跟進股票回購的情況嗎,我知道一個新的授權。你們對於這次回購的正面程度有何看法?你的資產負債表上有大量資本。考慮到今天的股價情況,我只是好奇您的想法。

  • David Monroe - Chief Financial Officer

    David Monroe - Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure, and it's Chris again. Share repurchases remain a part of our balanced approach to the capital management program and we've been consistent, but we've also been op opportunistic at times and we're going to continue to have that approach with regard to all of our returns to shareholders. And so it's good to have that authorization from Jerry and the Board, and we'll be thoughtful as we move forward, but we're going to be balanced and we're going to continue that process.

    當然,又是克里斯。股票回購仍然是我們平衡資本管理計畫方法的一部分,我們一直堅持這一做法,但有時我們也會投機取巧,我們將繼續採取這種方法來回報所有股東。因此,獲得傑瑞和董事會的授權是件好事,我們會在推進過程中深思熟慮,但我們會保持平衡,並將繼續這一進程。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Christine Cho, Goldman Sachs.

    高盛的 Christine Cho。

  • Christine Cho - Analyst

    Christine Cho - Analyst

  • Thank you so much for taking the question. So I would like to discuss your strategies in growing your portfolio of brands. So Texas Roadhouse, Bubba's, Jaggers, all quite unique concepts. But are there any major synergies, leverages on people development or operations that is helping these younger brands move faster on the ramp-up curve and also potentially replicating the exceptional guest experience Texas is famous for? Thank you.

    非常感謝您回答這個問題。所以我想討論一下你們擴大品牌組合的策略。所以 Texas Roadhouse、Bubba's、Jaggers 都是非常獨特的概念。但是,是否存在任何重大的協同效應、對人才發展或營運的槓桿作用,可以幫助這些年輕品牌在成長曲線上更快地發展,同時也有可能複製德州聞名的卓越客戶體驗?謝謝。

  • Gerald Morgan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gerald Morgan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, thank you. I appreciate the kind words. We do take the approach of -- there's obviously our company supports all three brands and the resources that we use to help create each one of them. Obviously, we are heavily on Texas Roadhouse, but as we start to find our way to support each brand separately, that's really the driver in understanding each one of those businesses, so.

    好吧,謝謝你。我很感激這些善意的話語。我們確實採取了這種方法——顯然,我們公司支持所有三個品牌以及我們用來幫助創建每個品牌的資源。顯然,我們對 Texas Roadhouse 的投資很大,但當我們開始找到分別支持每個品牌的方法時,這才是了解每個企業的真正驅動力。

  • Whether that impacts the growth or not, I think we could continue as we get more. It's about do we have the right people in place? Do we have the right growth strategy and are we able to execute at a high level. So I think as we look at we figure that out at Roadhouse long ago and as we continue to look at the Bubba's brand and the Jagger's brand the resources that we need to consistently get great restaurants open and to be able to open more is something that we've continued to look at.

    無論這是否影響成長,我認為我們都可以繼續獲得更多。關鍵在於我們是否安排了合適的人才?我們是否有正確的成長策略?因此我認為,正如我們很久以前在 Roadhouse 所弄清楚的那樣,當我們繼續關注 Bubba 品牌和 Jagger 品牌時,我們需要哪些資源來持續開設優秀的餐廳,以及能夠開設更多的餐廳,這是我們一直在關注的事情。

  • As we have a head of operations for Roadhouse and a head of operations for Bubba's and a head of operations for our Jaggers business and international, so as they report to us and what their needs and wants are and how we invest in their businesses, it's got to be about the people and it's got to be about the operation and we feel great about the food and the service model, as you mentioned, but it's really about us being able to grow successfully and get it right right off the bat.

    我們有一位 Roadhouse 的營運主管、一位 Bubba's 的營運主管以及一位 Jaggers 業務和國際營運主管,因此他們向我們匯報他們的需求和願望以及我們如何投資他們的業務,這必須與人有關,必須與營運有關,正如您所說,我們對食物和服務模式感到非常滿意,但這實際上關乎我們能否成功發展並從一開始就做好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jim Sanderson, Northcoast Research.

    吉姆·桑德森(Jim Sanderson),Northcoast Research。

  • Jim Sanderson - Analyst

    Jim Sanderson - Analyst

  • Hey, thanks for the question. I wanted to ask a question about your pricing philosophy. I'm wondering, is that as we progress through the year and you start to see food inflation pick up, if you would be more willing to take your prices up to protect margin, or if you'll need to see more visibility on traffic accelerating before you get to that point. And then tying into that, I wanted to clarify if that 2.5% run rate will remain intact on pricing throughout fourth quarter of 2025 or if there is another roll off later this year. Thank you.

    嘿,謝謝你的提問。我想問一個有關你們的定價理念的問題。我想知道,隨著時間推移,您開始看到食品通膨上升,您是否更願意提高價格以保護利潤,或者在達到這一點之前,您是否需要看到更多交通加速的可見性。然後與此相關,我想澄清一下,2.5% 的運行率是否會在整個 2025 年第四季保持不變,或者今年晚些時候是否會再次下降。謝謝。

  • Gerald Morgan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gerald Morgan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Jim. We're always going to look at pricing from a conservative lens and try to make the right decision. We've made the decision for the second quarter. We will revisit that with our operators at the end of the summer and really discuss what the back half of the year and what the climate will be dealing with at that point in time. So those will be the driving factors on the next conversations as we go through there.

    謝謝你,吉姆。我們始終從保守的角度看待定價並嘗試做出正確的決定。我們已經做出了第二季的決定。我們將在夏季末與我們的營運商一起重新審視這個問題,並認真討論今年下半年的情況以及屆時氣候將面臨怎樣的情況。因此,這些將成為我們下次對話的驅動因素。

  • David Monroe - Chief Financial Officer

    David Monroe - Chief Financial Officer

  • And Jim, I just cover it for you. We have 3.1% in the menu through the first quarter. Then that with the 1.4% that Jerry announced today, 2.2% rolls off, but starting in the second quarter, you have 2.3%. And then at the end of the third quarter, 0.9% would roll off, and that is our opportunity, as Jerry was just describing, to perhaps come back in with something that replaces that 0.9%. But going forward starting in Q2, will be at 2.3%.

    吉姆,我只是為你掩護而已。第一季我們的菜單佔3.1%。然後,加上傑瑞今天宣布的 1.4%,成長率將下降到 2.2%,但從第二季開始,成長率將達到 2.3%。然後在第三季末,0.9%將會下降,而這正是我們的機會,正如傑瑞剛才所描述的,也許我們可以推出一些新的東西來取代那 0.9%。但從第二季開始,這一比例將達到 2.3%。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brian Vaccaro, Raymond James.

    布萊恩·瓦卡羅、雷蒙·詹姆斯。

  • Brian Vaccaro - Analyst

    Brian Vaccaro - Analyst

  • Hi, thanks. Just two quick ones if I could. First, can you level set up on your G&A expectations in 2025? And then second, I just want to ask about delivery and you've obviously stayed away from third party delivery historically. But just given the strength in your off-premise demand for your brand and some changes that we're seeing on the first party delivery side, curious if you're giving any new consideration potentially getting into the first party delivery and just showing how you assess the potential opportunity there. Thank you.

    嗨,謝謝。如果可以的話我只想快速問兩個問題。首先,您能否設定 2025 年的 G&A 預期水準?其次,我只想問一下有關交付的問題,顯然你們過去一直避免使用第三方交付。但考慮到您對品牌的場外需求強勁,以及我們在第一方交付方面看到的一些變化,我很好奇您是否正在考慮進入第一方交付領域,並展示您如何評估那裡的潛在機會。謝謝。

  • Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

    Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

  • Yeah. Hey, Brian, it's Michael. I'll answer the G&A question and probably to hand that over to Jerry on the delivery. G&A, so I think you would potentially see a little bit -- have some growth in the first half of the year, and then some opportunities to be more flattish into the third quarter and as we lap the 53rd week in the fourth quarter, you could actually see the G&A dollars go down, in Q4.

    是的。嘿,布萊恩,我是麥可。我會回答 G&A 問題,並可能在交付時將其交給 Jerry。G&A,所以我認為你可能會看到一點——在上半年有一些增長,然後在第三季度有一些趨於平穩的機會,而當我們進入第四季度的第 53 週時,你實際上可能會看到 G&A 美元在第四季度下降。

  • So as of now maybe mid-single-digit dollar growth for the year, which should ideally get you some leverage on the G&A line, but probably more so in the back half of the year than the front half of the year on the leverage.

    因此,截至目前,今年的美元成長可能達到中等個位數,理想情況下,這應該會讓你在 G&A 線上獲得一些槓桿,但下半年的槓桿作用可能比上半年更大。

  • Gerald Morgan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gerald Morgan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • And then Brian on the -- this Jerry. On the third party, we like I said, we have it in Jaggers, we have it in Bubba's, we have it in one Roadhouse and we're continuing to learn on it, but that's probably where we're at right now.

    然後是布萊恩——這個是傑瑞。關於第三方,就像我說的,我們在 Jaggers 中有它,在 Bubba's 中有它,在 One Roadhouse 中有它,我們正在繼續學習它,但這可能就是我們現在所處的位置。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Rahul Krotthapalli, JPMorgan.

    摩根大通的 Rahul Krotthapalli。

  • Rahul Krotthapalli - Analyst

    Rahul Krotthapalli - Analyst

  • Hi guys. Can you share some color on the bump-outs? How much seating capacity has been added on average per store that went through and also what percent of buildings have land availability for more bump-outs after 2025?

    嗨,大家好。能分享一些凸起部分的顏色嗎?經過改造後,每家商店平均增加了多少座位容量,以及 2025 年後有多少比例的建築有土地可供擴建?

  • Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

    Michael Bailen - Head, Investor Relations

  • Yeah, well, I can answer some of that. I mean, typically a bump-out's going to add anywhere from 20 to 40 seats. Some of that is going to depend on exactly what you mentioned, the land availability, how much property can we use to add more seating. We bumped out over half our systems. A lot of the restaurants that we haven't bumped out are, because you don't have the real estate or you're not going to get the approvals from landlords or other businesses around you.

    是的,我可以回答一些問題。我的意思是,通常擴建將增加 20 到 40 個座位。其中有些將取決於您提到的土地供應情況,我們可以使用多少土地來增加座位。我們的系統有一半以上被淘汰。很多我們沒有關閉的餐廳是因為你沒有房地產,或無法獲得周圍房東或其他企業的批准。

  • So I don't have a number as far as, who could or couldn't, but I can tell you we have a nice pipeline. Restaurants that have been approved for bump-outs and you know we don't bump a restaurant out until it's been open for at least a few years. So that that pipeline naturally keeps rebuilding itself or at least gives us more restaurants to be looking at over time.

    因此,我無法給出一個具體數字,不知道誰可以做到或不能做到,但我可以告訴你,我們有一條很好的管道。已經批准擴建的餐廳,你知道,我們不會擴建一家開業至少幾年的餐廳。這樣,這個管道自然就會不斷重建,或者至少會讓我們隨著時間的推移而關注更多的餐廳。

  • David Monroe - Chief Financial Officer

    David Monroe - Chief Financial Officer

  • And, Rahul, it's Chris. The only other thing I'm going to add to that is that we're now building our new stores with the footers and with some capacity to do bump-outs. So we have that in mind and we're getting some of that cost out of the way so that we can do that once they've quote unquote earned their bump out. And so that allows us to kind of plan ahead, at least on the new stores as well.

    拉胡爾,我是克里斯。我唯一要補充的另一件事是,我們現在正在建造帶有頁腳的新商店,並且具有一些進行凸出處理的能力。所以我們考慮到了這一點,並且我們正在消除部分成本,以便我們可以在他們獲得應得的回報後這樣做。這樣我們就可以提前規劃,至少在新店方面也是如此。

  • Rahul Krotthapalli - Analyst

    Rahul Krotthapalli - Analyst

  • That's helpful. I have to follow up on the remodels. It looks like around 60% of your Roadhouse units are more than 10-years old. Could you break out like what percent of these old assets, need like more capital intensive or full-scale remodels versus lighter capital refreshes and how do we think about the schedule over the next few years?

    這很有幫助。我必須跟進改造情況。看起來你們 Roadhouse 中大約 60% 的飯店房源都已經超過 10 年了。您能否詳細說明這些舊資產中有多少百分比需要進行更多資本密集或全面改造,還是需要進行較少的資本更新,我們如何考慮未來幾年的時間表?

  • David Monroe - Chief Financial Officer

    David Monroe - Chief Financial Officer

  • Hey, Rahul, we really haven't released that kind of information. I will tell you though that we do have the intention on keeping our stores fresh and enjoyable for our guests and also enjoyable and safe for our employees. And so that's why we've been going at a pretty good clip on getting that done.

    嘿,拉胡爾,我們確實沒有發布過那種信息。不過我要告訴你的是,我們確實有意讓我們的商店為客人提供新鮮和愉快的體驗,同時也讓我們的員工感到愉快和安全。這就是為什麼我們一直在快速完成這項工作。

  • And of course you know us, and so you also know that that there's not going to be a top-down program that says, this is when you have to do X, Y, or Z to your store. We're going to hear from the operators, we're going to hear from them in their stores and then they're going to talk to us about what capital is available.

    當然,您了解我們,因此您也知道,不會有一個自上而下的計劃告訴您,此時您必須對您的商店執行 X、Y 或 Z 操作。我們將聽取營運商的意見,我們將聽取他們在商店的意見,然後他們將告訴我們有哪些可用的資金。

  • So, we feel pretty good about the investments that were being, that are being made, and, we feel good about when you walk into, just about any of our stores, you're going to see a really fresh, clean, wonderful operation, and you're going to be treated extremely well, and you're going to have some legendary food.

    所以,我們對正在進行的投資感到非常滿意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes the question-and-answer session. I'll turn the call to Jerry Morgan for closing remarks.

    問答環節到此結束。我將請傑瑞·摩根致結束語。

  • Gerald Morgan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Gerald Morgan - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you all for your continued support. I appreciate all of you in Roadie Nation and all of our guests that continue to dine with us. Let's go, Roadhouse.

    感謝大家一直以來的支持。我感謝 Roadie Nation 的所有人以及所有繼續與我們共進晚餐的客人。走吧,Roadhouse。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。