Titan International Inc (TWI) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, the Titan International Inc. fourth quarter 2024 earnings call webcast will begin shortly with your host Alan Snyder. We appreciate your patience as we prepare your session today. During the call, we encourage participants to raise any questions they may have. (Operator Instructions)

Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Titan International Inc fourth quarters 2024 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants have been placed on listen-only mode, and we will open the floor for your questions and comments after the presentation.

If you need assistance during the call, please press star followed by 0 on your telephone keypad. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to Alan Snyder, Vice President for Financial Planning and Investor relations for Titan. Mr. Snyder, the floor is yours.

Thank you and good morning. I'd like to welcome everyone to Titan's fourth quarter of 2024 earnings call. On the call with me today are Paul Reitz, Titan's President and CEO, and David Martin, Titan's senior Vice President and CFO. I will begin with a reminder that the results we are about to review were presented in the earnings release issued yesterday along with our Form 10k, which was also filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission yesterday. As a reminder, during this call, we will be discussing certain forward-looking information, including the company's plans and projections for the future that involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that could cause our actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking information.

Additional information concerning factors that either individually or in the aggregate could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements can be found within the safe harbor statement included in the earnings release attached to the company's form 8k filed earlier. As well as our latest Form 10K and Forms 10Q, all of which have been filed with the SEC. In addition, today's remarks may refer to non-GAAP financial measures which are intended to supplement but not be a substitute for the most directly comparable GAAP measures. The earnings release, which accompanies today's call, contains financial and other quantitative information to be discussed today, as well as the reconciliation of the non-gap measures to the most comparable GAAP measures. The Q4 earnings release is available on the company's website. A replay of this presentation, a copy of today's transcript, and the company's latest quarterly investor presentation will all be available soon after the call on Titan's website.

I would now like to turn the call over to Paul.

Thanks, Alan, and good morning, everyone. Since we last spoke with you all at the end of October, there has been no shortage of change in the world. And when it comes to our business, the change has us feeling better than we did on our last call.

On that third quarter call, we expressed at the bottom of the ag cycle was drawing closer and that we were seeing the early signs of a cyclical recovery. As we sit here today, while we're not completely there yet, we are seeing reasons to be more optimistic.

First, there has been an improvement in farmer sentiment. There seems to be optimism born out of the new administration as farmers expect the government to be supportive of US agriculture. It goes without saying that positive sentiment among farmers regarding their future prospects could ultimately lead to their willingness to invest in farm assets. That sentiment is typically a function of a range of factors such as crop prices, yield forecasts, and input cost levels, which all tie into the big driver farm income.

Speaking of crop prices, recent corn prices have been over 15% higher than they were a year ago at this time, reaching levels over USD5 per bushel. This, along with government support, bodes well for farm income.

Outside the US, we're encouraged by increasing activity in Brazil, an important market for Titan. This year is starting off well there and demand is expected to be up nicely in both our OE and aftermarket channels. Our team in Brazil is highly experienced and done an excellent job, not just in driving market share, but in how they manage the cost and operational side of their business during this highly volatile times for their currency, the. History has been that Brazil is a good leading indicator for the broader global ag market.

Moving over to Europe, I was just there recently and can confirm what the [AGOEMs] have been saying in terms of business being slow in that region. That said, an end to the Ukraine situation could be a positive, and we're certainly hoping for that. Summing things up by geography as we look around the world, we have all seen the production forecast from the major [OEMs] that have generally indicated Brazil to be their strongest improving region. While Europe and North America haven't crossed that line yet to return to growth, but with expectations for an improved second half of the year, especially as they move into 2026.

Recently our conversation with customers have been taking more of a positive nature. I do not want to get ahead of myself, but I will say there has been an observable shift in tone with the number of customers asking about our ability to ramp up production in the second half of this year. Maintaining our productive capacity and expertise was an emphasis for Titan, despite the reduction in demand we have worked through over the last 18-months. So, we are certainly happy to tell our customers that yes, we will be ready to go when they are.

As we see that demand come back, we will also be focused on expanding customer relations relationships via our one-stop shop strategy. We've talked a lot about that, and it really took hold for us following last year's Carlstar acquisition. A big part of that is our aftermarket business. We have seen that be a steady performer through this down cycle. And one of our focal points of our management team in recent years has been to expand our aftermarket offering in all three of our segments, and we expect it to continue to be a steadier source of business for us in the future as well.

We also continue to emphasize innovation and new products while also working to introduce existing products such as LSWs to segments where we have not marketed them as aggressively in the past, such as mid and low horsepower tractors. My team is also focusing on the cross-selling of Titan and Carlstar's products into the new segments and geographies.

Looking around, there are really good opportunities for us to continue to drive sales via these initiatives. Turning over the consumer segment, much like [Ag], our aftermarket business has held up better than the OEMs. Our team has done a good job integrating Carlstar and working to capture a range of synergies as their product lineup complements our legacy titan products.

This enables us to bring our customers a much wider range of products to suit their needs. Our off-road consumer products go on a wide range of equipment that owners continue to use, whether it be landscaping riding lawn Motors, or recreational ATV user, or on-road trailers used to transport equipment, all of which underpin a steadier demand for replacement tires in this segment.

On the OEM side, leading consumer product manufacturers have noted their plans to continue underproducing demand in the first half of this year. These OEMs are mindful of the health of their dealers and are working to make sure they're not saddled with excess inventory.

Looking at ourselves, I mean, we have the premium product portfolio across this off-road spectrum with a strong footprint of our manufacturing and distribution locations. Therefore, we can serve our customers better in this environment and make sure those fill in orders are taken care of. For us, a healthy OEM dealer ecosystem is also generally supportive of our OEM aftermarket business. So, we really view these continuing actions at the OEMs to manage inventory as a long-term positive for our business.

Moving over to the EMC segment, we believe overall construction market conditions remain fairly stable, and mining activity continues to be solid. Precious metal prices are strong and have risen in response to geopolitical developments. As those prices for minerals rise, owners and operators of mining assets are incentivized to run their equipment as much as possible. That's going to generate solid demand for aftermarket undercarriage parts.

We are in a good position in this segment with our innovations and product development and undercarriage along with our strong replace our service capabilities which make us poised for growth in this segment. Tariffs are on everyone's mind these days, both in business and their personal lives. You can't avoid hearing about them in the endless media barrage on that topic. At this point, the current tariffs are not a significant issue for us to navigate. It seems that early reactions to tariffs have created a renewed investment interest in US manufacturing. I think we're all seeing that daily in the reports coming about investment into the US.

During complex and volatile times, when you look at it from Titan's perspective, we have historically seen that environment as a benefit to Titan because our customers can count on us to meet their evolving needs. We have the market leading product portfolio. We have a broad geographical footprint. We have the best technical team in the business, and we are extremely committed to serving our customers during these complex times. And so we look at this environment. As a long term catalyst for Titan being able to demonstrate to our customers our full capabilities of mitigating the risk of their supply chain.

So wrapping things up here, overall, I just, I want to talk about taking a quick look at 2024. We successfully navigated a deep cyclical downturn with strong cash flow and successfully integrated a large acquisition. That is really due to the effective actions and timely decision making of our one Titan team, and I want to express my appreciation to them for their efforts throughout 2024. Overall, we are encouraged about what lies ahead for Titan with good reasons to feel that way.

Our investments in our one stop strategy have us well positioned to provide more comprehensive products and services for our customers, and we are positioned to see accelerating results as demand improves in the future. New product innovation continues to be a cornerstone of our value proposition and cements our position as the market leader in our space. With that, I will hand it over to David.

Thank you, Paul, and good morning and thanks to everyone listening in. Welcome to our first call of 2025.Let me first say that our results for the fourth quarter are generally in line with our expectations, and as everyone knows, this was our seasonal low quarter of the year. Revenues in the fourth quarter were USD384 million with adjusted EBITDA USD9 million and free cash flow was just a little under break even. Gross margin in the quarter was almost 11%.

With volume hitting cyclical lows, our ability to sustain that level of gross margin is something we're pleased with, and it also bodes well for the business as we move it to a recovery phase. To give some perspective, during the most recent cyclical low in 2019, 4-year gross margins were about 9% compared with adjusted gross margins for this year of 14.6%. Production during that during the 2024 low was nearly 20% what we saw in 2019.

Yet we were able to maintain gross margins roughly 500 basis points higher, so that is something our entire one Titan team is proud of. Looking at margins by segment in the fourth quarter, gross margins were 9%, EMC margins were around 6%, and consumer gross margins were 18%. Consumer was our most profitable segment as higher margin aftermarket business accounted for more than 60% of sales in the segment.

FCF expense for the fourth quarter was USD51 million or 13% of sales compared to USD32 million in the prior year or 8%. Just to reiterate, our commentary from prior quarters in 2024, we talked about this, the increase in SG&A can entirely be attributed to the Carlstar acquisition, particularly the distribution centres that are in the that are an integral part of the operating model which allows us to fulfil customer orders in a very timely manner.

R&D expenses were USD4.4 million in the fourth quarter compared to USD3.1 million a year ago. As we know throughout our commentary, innovation and product development is critically important for Titan and in an area that we will continue to invest. Our operating loss in the fourth quarter was USD17 million reflecting the combination of reduced sales and operational expenses. I just note. Operating cash flow was about USD9 million inclusive and inclusive of Capex of USD13 million. Free cash flow was Negative -USD4.6 million. We anticipate Q1 will also show negative free cash flow, but that's expected with the sequential improvement in sales, which will require a corresponding increase in accounts receivable. We fully expect that cash flow will turn positive as our year progresses.

Net debt at quarter end was USD369 million or 2.9 times trailing 12 month adjusted EBITDA. Entering 2024, our leverage was very modest at approximately 1 times, and that allowed us to accomplish a great deal in the form of the Carlstar acquisition and significant share repurchases, which we are confident will serve our shareholders well over the long term.

From a capital allocation standpoint, our primary focus in 2025 will be the pay down of debt and continued smart investments in the business. But we will spend less on Capex in 2025. In 2024, Titan recorded a credit to income tax expense of USD26 million related to the pre-tax loss in the fourth quarter. That brought full year tax expense down to around USD12 million which equates to about an effective rate of 143%. Now this elevated tax rate is primarily due to the loss incurred domestically in 2024 due to the very low volume, and this was further exacerbated by the lack of ability to fully deduct interest expenses as dictated by US tax law. And as well as the impact from foreign income tax in higher tax jurisdictions.

Paul talked about tariffs earlier, and our firm belief is that it can be good for Titan due to the strength of our global footprint and the production flexibility that we have across the business. One of our strategic assets is our ability to manufacture a lot of products that mitigate that we settle them and will mitigate their supply chain risk for any products that are imported or exported for that matter, we will manage our costs and our pricing accordingly, and we do not anticipate a major impact.

Our acquisition of Carlstar brought us an exceptional plant in China that currently supplies products in the US, mainly our consumer segment. While we're clearly in a fluid situation, we have analyzed the current tariffs in determining the impact and our actions in response to be very fairly minimal. That being said, the advantage Titan has is that tariffs, as tariffs ratchet up, we have plants in the US that can absorb some of the production currently running at that China plant. All of this is to say that we're situated well as a company. With options of how best to handle tariffs as they continue to evolve.

Moving on to our financial guidance for Q1, as Paul noted, we are pleased with the sequential sales improvement that we saw, and they've seen so far in Q1. As demand begins to recover, we'll be starting from a higher margin profile than in the past. Given the significant fixed costs in our manufacturing operations, increases in our production and sales enable margin expansion, so we're certainly looking forward to our earnings and cash flow potential later in the year and into 2026.

Bringing focus back to the near term, our guidance range for the first quarter is USD450 to USD500 million with adjusted EBITDA of USD25 to USD35 million. Again, that's a sequential improvement versus Q4.

Reiterating our prior comments on cash flow, we are investing in working capital in the first quarter due to the sequential sales increase, and as the year progresses, we expect to see cash flow turn positive, allowing us to reduce debt. The bottom line is our financial condition remains solid, and we're putting ourselves in a position to accelerate our future performance every day.

Thank you for your time this morning, and we would like to now turn the call back up to Carly for the Q&A session.

Thank you very much. We'd like to begin the question-and-answer session. So to ask a question, you may press star followed by 1 on your telephone key. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question will be followed by 2. Our first question comes from Mike Sinsky of DA Davidson. Your line is now open, Mike.

Yes, hello, good morning, thanks for taking my questions. I guess I wanted to get a little bit better feel for Davidson your company that you just made on cash flow. If some of the OEMs are looking at a better 2026, do you feel like you may have to take on some more working capital here in the fourth quarter of 2025 to prepare for it?

Yeah we'll certainly take a look at that, we generally do that anyway, as we always have a sequential increase from Q4 to Q1, as we get, as we progress through the second half of the year, I think we'll be able to get the visibility we need to manage it accordingly and not overinvest, but I think we can calibrate our production to meet the expectations for the growth that could potentially come.

Got it. Thanks for that. Paul, you provided quite bit of detail on the ag outlook. Really give us a little bit more detail on your feelings on Earth living construction as well as consumer, perhaps in the very near term, in the first quarter, might one segment be a bigger driver than the others and then kind of broader, from a cycle perspective where those two stand.

Yeah, it's, did talk a lot about ag and now that we're very diversified across all the segments, earth moving construction is an area where I would say we see the market as being stable, but driven by factors that I think are underlying a level of demand or a floor, I would say, the need for infrastructure, government investment. Clearly there's residential needs, so it would be difficult for governments to turn their back on the needs of society.

And so I think you look at that as the floor, but clearly in this environment, you're having some inventory corrections that are taking place at the OEMs and so. You're balancing, I think, a positive floor with the negatives of the inventory correction. I think where we see good demand for us in our Earth movie construction segment is some of our capabilities that are more unique and specific to Titan. In our undercarriage division, we have capabilities that I want to say nobody else has, but at least nobody has it to our extent, and that's the ability to produce custom.

Aftermarket mining parts through again some unique capabilities to tighten and so we look at not just the OEMs to drive business but also just overall activity and that's why some of my comments reference the mining activity that's taking place as prices there have remained elevated, and activity remains fairly strong with all the demand needed for.

A rare earth, minerals, all the things that go into daily society and life. And so again, I think we have some capabilities that tight and that are unique, so a little bit different than maybe some of the commentary you'll hear just from the OEMs in that segment. Again, our ability to service the aftermarket with some customized parts there. When you look at consumer again, everything's bifurcated these days. You look at aftermarket versus OEM from two different lenses, we had a really good year in 2024 with aftermarket.

Really impressed with how Carlstar and that team has gotten integrated and titan and just really kept that momentum going and so the aftermarket part of our business and consumer has performed well. We see opportunities around the corner with expanding our presence both with existing customers and then then new products and geographies that we can get into and so.

You look at the aftermarket and consumer from that lens of really performing well and being a more consistent part of our business as we've talked about in our comments, and then OEMs, it's dealing with inventory just like we've talked about with A and EMC. We're seeing the OEMs in the consumer segment trying to balance the sellout with their inventory and you know the OEMs are going to adjust accordingly and I think that's a positive in the long run, but in the short run, you're going to have to deal with some cyclical factors impacting OEM demand in consumer, very similar to what we talked about EMC and. I'll stop there. I think I've said enough. You got any follow-up questions, let me know.

Yes, absolutely, that definitely answered my question. Let me just trying to add real quick. I appreciate that the fact that you sound like you're a lot more positive on the back half of the year, at least for orders, and I kind of wanted to get a few things squared up. I guess Paul, are your comments that I might get better later on this year a commentary on your business and what you might be shipping or just simply the orders you might be receiving and hopefully hoping to ship that in 2026? I'm kind of trying to figure out whether the first quarter could be a low point of the year for your business.

And we should be thinking about making things higher in the back half, but when I get a feel for the cadence of the actual turnaround in both your business as well as the broader, the actual farmer buying the equipment.

A little of each, but hey Mike, did you, were you on teams, whether it be sports, bands, any type of competitive team as a kid?

Absolutely all the above.

All right, perfect. All right. So, hope is something that every team must have, whether it's in competitive team environment with sports or music and also in business, and you can never lose hope and hope is something that whether you're the captain of the team or you're the leader of the business, you got to make sure it's present and you can force hope into the room because you've got to have it. It's mandatory.

You lose hope, you lose everything. Optimism is something that comes from the team to the captain and the leader. You can't necessarily create it. It's either there or it's not. What I have seen over the last few months is optimism, and it's coming from the team. It's coming from the customers they're talking to. It's coming from what they're dealing with in their daily situation. The stuff they're reading, there's been a definite turn in the last 90 days, so I can tell you the things I've seen with my own eyes, but I think what's more important is what I've seen from the team and maybe it's because we've gone through a deep cyclical downturn over the last 18 months, and it's tough, and we're starting to see the bright lights out in front of us, but there's optimism in the room and it's coming deep within the team and I think that's where I feel that positive change is taking place.

Some of that is, going back to your question, some of that is going to be in the short term with orders that we're picking up now, but quite a bit of it is in the back half of the year with expectations for what they will need from us, our customers will need from us both in.

What they'll take this year, but also in preparation for next year as you alluded to, but we are definitely seeing some orders come in that impact us today, but I think it's that optimism that we're seeing with opportunities for later this year and next year that, again it's a real sense of optimism that is present in the room and it's not being not being created by leadership. It's coming from them up towards us and the entire team.

Okay, I appreciate that, discussion. I'll pass it along.

Thank you.

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from Steve Ferranzani of Sidoti. Your line is now open, Steve.

Morning Paul, Dave I appreciate all the colour on the on the call this morning. I do want to follow up on that last commentary, Paul, because it's, and you're hearing directly from customers it's more challenging on our side, right? Because we listened.

To the fork you calls from a lot of your large ad customers, a lot of it was still focused on Managing inventories, managing prices. The question is how fast that can pivot, and you ran through all the data points that support a recovery, and you could see it in the stock prices, but it's hard to connect those two. But are you, so you're actually hearing that your team is hearing from customers that maybe there's a pickup in the second half because that didn't really translate on the conference calls that I'm sure you listen to as well.

Right.

And part of the disconnect, Steve, is they're looking at inventory in the channels and we're looking at inventory from the wheel and tire perspective and we've had disconnect throughout the pandemic and post-pandemic between what we view as inventory and what they discuss as inventory and we've seen wheels and tires get accelerated into their inventories ahead of their production levels and ahead of their sellout. And what we see typically in our business is that our trends are off cycle with theirs, so I'm not going to say it's just a pandemic trend, but it definitely got accelerated during the pandemic, but we lead before they do because we have to get geared up for production. If you think about some of the products we produce, Steve, they are customized to them their piece of equipment.

A wheel is a highly engineered product that has to fit on their hub and axle based upon not just each manufacturer but also within each line that they have of a tractor, a spray or a combine. It's not just a different pink colour, so we need to be prepared differently than maybe a chip, a belt to hose that can be transferred from one product to the next. And so.

We do follow different trends and our inventory has been volatile during this period. I think we got hammered from the inventory perspective harder earlier during the down cycle because they had excess wheels and tires. So some of the commentary you would have heard from the OEMs would have been different than what we were seeing in our business. I think we went down much faster than them. And I think we go back up before they do. So fully understand your question and following their commentary very closely, but there's some different trends between our inventory and their inventory.

If I could just add one thing, just put a point on it, if you see, if you look at last year just 2024, 1st half the second half, particularly in the ag sector, we're down 40%. In the first half to second half, that's a pretty significant downturn, obviously we had to absorb that and that is the Everything to do with destocking, right? So that's a perspective that's, you have to take into 2025, right, is that the expectations are that it's not going to be, we're going to start to see recovery before maybe the sellout into the industry will be and Titan sees it faster.

And speaking to that, Paul and David, if the pivot is fast. And again, you ran through a lot of the data that says it can be potentially how well positioned are you to pick up? I know the last recovery we were still in COVID labour was problematic for some, less for you. In terms of Capex that you need in the plants, in terms of capacity to labour, how quickly are you able to position if the pivot is faster than expected?

Well, we will find a way to be prepared, and that's the message to the team. David and I were in Freeport last week and again, the optimism coming from them towards David and I was what I already talked about earlier, and they also know they got to be prepared. We were in Quincy the week before that, same discussion. They've had some drop in orders already come, they've had to adjust, and they need to be prepared and so.

It's a message we're delivering now, but it's also a message that we delivered throughout last year to the team as we reached a point where our headcount is down significantly. That's always difficult to do, but we reached a point where we said let's hold off on the headcount reductions because we're going to be cutting into experienced labour. What we do does require skill. It requires experience, and we reached a point where we said we do not want to lose these people.

They're too important to us in the present and also definitely for the future, and we're seeing that future here now if not towards the back half of the years we've been talking about, and our team has to be prepared and but it's not something again that we're just talking about today. We've been talking about throughout the pandemic. But now they're telling us they need to be prepared because they're seeing that sense of optimism that I've been talking about as well. So it's good. Like I said, we were in Freeport last week, we didn't have to come in there and then tell them to be prepared. They're telling us how they're going to get prepared and we got to stay on it. It's going to be, it's never easy, but it's a good problem to have.

Absolutely. A couple of very quick modelling questions, David, a sense of what DNA will look like next year. It's obviously moved around a bit with the acquisition this year. And also, what we saw from consumer, this was your first year with Carlstar, is this what seasonality looks like?

Yeah, so to your DNA question, I don't have the top of my head. It's around USD60 million a quarter, I think, or for the year, I'm sorry, yeah, USD60 million is roughly we in Q4 we had a little bit of adjustment that we made our final purchase price adjustments, that were required after the acquisition and so that's all been finalized and that's about where we're going to be.

To your question about seasonality and Carlstar or the consumer division. I but the sim similar to the Situation with all the rest of the segments, if you will, Q4 being a seasonal low, it was a little bit more exacerbated in terms of, again destocking that took place with OEMs, but I would think that, as we head towards 2025, I think that's about right in terms of I think the seasonality. My, it's not as dramatic normally.

As front end loaded first half typically in a normal year it would be front end loaded, yeah.

But Q4 is definitely a seasonal low because, it can mowing season and things like that. So, I think it's pretty similar, not enough to make a meaningful change in your modelling.

Okay, thanks Paul thanks David.

Our next question comes from Tom Kerr of Zacks Small Capital Research. Tom, your line is now open.

Good morning, guys. Quick follow up on the tariff issue. I think half your manufacturing is overseas roughly. Can that change relatively quickly based on the circumstances of a tariff? And then related to that, does it follow what the OEMs do? If they're doing a lot of onshoring, do you have to follow that? I hope that makes sense.

Yes, no, it does, yes, we are prepared and capable of moving production to different locations, like you just stated, we do have half our manufacturing position around the world in good locations for our geographical footprints to serve our customers. As our customers move production, I would say the preference would then lean towards being closer to where they are producing the equipment. And that helps mitigate risk and has longer tail obviously on the logistical side. Clearly that could be their decision on what they prefer, but I would imagine as production shifts our production would change locations as well. But I do believe that one of our biggest strengths is our geographical footprint. We have plants that are positioned very well for our customer base and can meet their needs as their needs do change.

All right, thanks for a couple more quick ones on the Brazil strength, what, can you provide more colour on what the strength is there? Is it general economics? Is it government policy and then related to that, why are they the bellwether for the rest of the A world?

Well, I mean, Brazil is a big part of their economy and they clearly are a less diversified economy than some of the, than what we're used to here in the US, but ag is a big part of the economy, heavily supported when needed by government incentives. I mean, what we're seeing there is just a general tone of optimism towards Both aftermarket and OEs that they're turning the corner. They've had some administration changes there that are that are supportive of Ag.

Also, it's been a long downturn when you look at it in Brazil, it's going to run its cycle, and I think part of it you're seeing the cyclical upturn. Compared to, what we've seen, in Europe, as I mentioned, but no, I think Brazil, they're feeling that they're turning the corner, good support from the government, good demand coming in, and their grains have been in strong demand as well. I mean they've been exporting. A lot of beans around the world and so there's a tremendous amount of demand for their crops. Obviously it starts there, but you know their demand has been strong throughout the, kind of the 2023, 2024 cycle as their exports have increased and we've seen some of the exports from the US decrease and so, the tone we're getting over the last Call it kind of 60, 90 days from Brazil is an uptick in you know the sentiment as we go into 2025.

Great, thanks for that. Last one, are you able to talk about military opportunities in more details in light of sort of the federal budget cuts we're seeing, defence industry may be downsized and so on. Is that do you guys have orders for that military opportunity or contracts or, could that be affected by budget cuts, I guess.

Well, the way I've been characterizing our military opportunities is when you have very little, the opportunities are bigger in contrast to having not much and the way our military has been making decisions in recent years hasn't really been supportive of US manufacturing and so What we've been doing with the administration change, and we started this kind of back in the middle of last year is really pulling in some expertise from the outside who can help guide us on how to get back into the military, and that's what we've been working on. So we're not impacted like a true military supplier by budget cuts.

We're looking at it as with the administration change and really their budget cuts are favourable from our standpoint.

Maybe some of the bad decisions they've been making in the past can put us on the radar as a good decision to make in the future. So we just look at it as an opportunity to go from close to nothing to something positive, and we're working hard to do that. And I think both budget cuts and administrative changes are the reason why we're being more aggressive in pursuing these opportunities.

Great, that's all I have for today. Thank you.

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from Kirk Lutzke of Imperial Capital. Kirk, your line is not open.

Hey Paul, David, Allen, thank you for the call. Good morning. A follow up on the new business. Looks like maybe you're looking to move into some lower Price points I think Mentioned in the press release sourcing product from third parties. Can you talk a little bit about that initiative.

The initiative is really taking care of our customers and post the Carlstar acquisition. Our capabilities to service our customers have only increased, and we talk about the one stop shop approach, and there's a lot of things that go into that, and that includes third party sourcing. So what our team has really been focused on over the last year is not something that's just starting now, is how do we get the right products to take care of our customers' needs, and that does include some manufacturing that's outside Titan's manufacturing facilities.

What we bring to the equation when we do that is having the world class distribution channels that we have, the brands that are under the titan umbrella, the technical expertise and service that we can bring to the equation, that's where we stand out in our industry and so. We look for third party partners that can produce products that our customers need and then we can layer in what I just mentioned. It becomes a win-win for all parties involved, and we see that as a bigger part of our business and you know it was part of Titan's legacy business, but post Carlstar with some of the expertise that we brought on and the resources from that acquisition. We see this as a as a growing part of our business and it's really putting all that together and taking care of our customers in the best possible way.

Got it. Thank you. That's helpful and A follow up on the tariff, you mentioned that you thought it would be a positive. And you produce. I would, I would guess most of what you sell in the US in the US is That a fair Characterization?

Most is fair, yes. Okay. I mean, what, yeah, from the t stand, yeah, go ahead. Finish your question.

No, I'm just, I'm trying to get a sense for if tariffs were imposed on. On steel products and or tires, incremental tariffs on steel products and or tires, how much of the market In the US market comes from offshore and generally, are those tires and steel products, steel wheels coming from China or where are they coming from? So, we can just, so we can react to any headlines we see, we understand what that means for.

Yeah, I mean, and it does vary by product segments, so there's not a blanket answer, but I will tell you kind of our perspective in the short term, what we have done is we've analysed the tariffs, just as you're doing, we've analysed them specifically to our business and we do that in a heavy analytical way, looking at the dollars and the cents and the impact and so the comments we've made when we say there is. Minimal impacts are based upon the analysis of where we are today.

So again, that's very analytical when we make that comment about minimal impact.

When we talk about the longer term, that's when we're referencing our ability to service our customers and both David and I mentioned mitigate the risk of their supply chains with that strong geographical footprint and our ability to manufacture source products from all around the world. We can take care of our customers' needs better than our competition in our industry. And so longer term when things are volatile and complex, Titan is good at solving the needs of the customers. And so that's where we look at it long term.

Short term, you mentioned steel, my opinion is if you're just tariffing raw steel, you're missing the bigger picture of Other forms of steel that come into the marketplace, obviously finished goods is what I'm referencing, or even whip for that matter.

We see less of that directly competing in some of our, large wheels are made in the US. They're not you know large ag wheels are not imported from overseas as much. So, again, it kind of depends by the by the segment with answering that, but you know I look at the tariffs as I want a country that makes stuff versus consumes stuff for maybe not my perspective all the time, but looking at it from my kids' vantage point. And so I think what we're seeing with tariffs is putting driving more of an emphasis towards we need to be making stuff more here in the long run than just looking around and consuming everything we possibly can and relying on just a strong dollar to drive that consumption.

And so I think it's a positive for the long run for our kids that we can make stuff and it's good because our plants are located. We have a great manufacturing footprint in the US, so I think that is good for us in the long run. But in the short term there's, we view it as we got to be nimble, we got to be flexible, as David and I both mentioned, and in the short run, we don't see there being a an impact that we're seeing right now. And I think again it's not overlook one more comment.

People look at tariffs as they're either cut and dry, they're either right or wrong, and I don't think that's the correct way to look at it. It's somewhere it's going to depend, but this administration is committed to growth. The administration is not doing tariffs to cause harm to growth, so you got to have trust and faith in the administration over their term. They're going to figure out how to grow with these tariffs, not destroy something. And so let's not get caught up in the micro every single day. I think we've got to have some faith in the administration that they're committed to growth. That's what they've stated. So again, a long way in answer to your question, something that we're thinking about just like everybody else is, but it's a combination of a number of different factors, but I will say in the short run we've analysed it very closely and we see minimal impact in the long run we think we can we can service our customers in a very healthy way as tariffs come and go.

That's fantastic. I appreciate it. That's all for me. Thank you.

Thank you very much. As a reminder, if you would like to raise a question, please press star followed by 1 on your telephone keypad, and to remove yourself from the line of questioning star followed by 2. Our next question comes from Brian D’Aorubio of Baird. Brian, your line is not open.

Good morning, gentlemen, just a couple of questions for me. Maybe start with you, Paul, you help us, excuse me, size up the aftermarket opportunity, maybe help us give a sense what aftermarket versus OE is today.

Yes, I mean, we When you look at over the long run, we have really significantly increased our aftermarket presence, something that we've done with the acquisition, but we've also done with a lot of internal initiatives through the years. And so you know probably 10 years ago we were around 25% aftermarket and today we're 45%. And so with that 45% coming from aftermarket, we do see a business that is steadier.

More consistent than what you see with some of the cycles with OEMs and so as we sit here today, we're about 45% aftermarket.

And what's the goal to get that north of 50 over A cycle?

Mm, that's a good question. I don't know if we've set a target like that. Clearly we look at it as an area for growth and we're continuing to pursue avenues to expand it, and I've mentioned it with undercarriage, we have a good aftermarket opportunity in mining with undercarriage that's unique to our company. We've done a lot in the tire space to grow our aftermarket. The one that doesn't have a lot of aftermarket is a wheel. That business is, has been and likely will remain primarily OEM driven, but in the entire business, our innovations have helped drive aftermarket, our branding, our distribution is kind of all of the above. And so what I like to see us get above 50, I think you just set a good target for our company. I may have to, I have to take what you said and make that our new target.

There you go, switching gears, David, the liquidity in the US looks a little tight right now. Just, any thoughts on being able to move cash around and repatriates them to the US?

Yes, certainly, we've done some of that already in the first part of the 2025, and the expectation is that we will always Protect our liquidity in the US and move things as we need to, not necessarily, we always look at tax leakage and don't want to just bring it back and lose all of it because of taxes, but there are some opportunities and we'll continue to do that as we progress through 2025. But again, I just want to state that we've already done some of that movement in Q1.

Got it. Okay, so that's not going to be a worry then, if you need to build inventory out of a ramp.

No, yeah, well, we can flex accordingly.

Got it. That helps. And I guess just final question as we think about the ramp and its impact on profitability just have what has been the operating rates of your US facilities and I guess what I'm getting at is there been sort of, current period charges that were charged directly against the P&L versus capitalized inventory that will go away or just be recapitalized inventory as production volumes pick up.

I wouldn't say there was anything significant that would create volatility and the call it the P&L or anything like that in terms of capitalization, cap variances and things like that. But yeah, the utilization rates are obviously low, particularly in Q4. It's at their lowest, and we watched that in terms of how, the cost of products that we produce and then sell and with the lag and everything, so it's, but. As I look at it analytically, I don't expect to see tremendous volatility.

Perfect, appreciate all the colour.

Thank you so much.

Thank you very much. We currently have no further questions, so I would like to hand out the pool rights for any closing remarks.

Yeah, well, I want to thank everybody for their participation on our Q4 earnings call today and obviously, we're going to roll in pretty quickly with Q1 results here soon. So look forward to talking to you then.

Thank you.

As we conclude today's call, we'd like to thank everyone for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.