特靈科技 (TT) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Welcome to the Trane Technologies Q2 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Josh, and I will be your operator for the call. The call will begin in a few moments with the speaker remarks and the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions) I will now turn the call over to Zach Nagle, Vice President of Investor Relations.

早上好。歡迎參加特靈科技 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。我叫喬什，我將擔任您的通話接線員。電話會議將在幾分鐘後開始，由演講者發表講話並進行問答環節。 （操作員指示）我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Zach Nagle。

Thanks, operator. Good morning, and thank you for joining us for Trane Technologies Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. This call is being webcast on our website at tranetechnologies.com where you'll find the accompanying presentation. We're also recording and archiving this call on our website.

謝謝，接線員。早上好，感謝您參加特靈科技 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。本次電話會議正在我們的網站 tranetechnologies.com 上進行網絡直播，您可以在其中找到隨附的演示文稿。我們還在我們的網站上記錄並存檔了這次通話。

Please go to Slide 2. Statements made in today's call that are not historical facts are considered forward-looking statements and are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of federal securities law. Please see our SEC filings for a description of some of the factors that may cause our actual results to differ materially from anticipated results. This presentation also includes non-GAAP measures, which are explained in the financial tables attached to our news release.

請轉到幻燈片 2。今天的電話會議中所做的非歷史事實的陳述被視為前瞻性陳述，並且是根據聯邦證券法的安全港條款做出的。請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件，了解可能導致我們的實際結果與預期結果存在重大差異的一些因素的描述。本演示文稿還包括非公認會計準則衡量標準，這些衡量標准在我們新聞稿所附的財務表格中進行了解釋。

Joining me on today's call are Dave Regnery, Chair and CEO; and Chris Kuehn, Executive Vice President and CFO. With that, please go to Slide 3 and I'll turn the call over to Dave. Dave?

與我一起參加今天電話會議的還有董事長兼首席執行官戴夫·雷格納里 (Dave Regnery)；克里斯·庫恩（Chris Kuehn），執行副總裁兼首席財務官。接下來，請轉到幻燈片 3，我會將電話轉給 Dave。戴夫？

Thanks, Zach, and everyone, for joining us on today's call. Let me begin with a few comments on our purpose as a company, to boldly challenge what's possible for a sustainable world. Our purpose is at the heart of our strategy, which is linked to powerful megatrends like climate change. This enables us to drive differentiated financial results and shareholder returns over the long term.

感謝扎克和大家參加今天的電話會議。首先，我要對我們作為一家公司的目標進行一些評論，即大膽挑戰可持續發展世界的可能性。我們的目標是我們戰略的核心，它與氣候變化等強大的大趨勢息息相關。這使我們能夠長期推動差異化的財務業績和股東回報。

The recent news on climate change has been sobering. Water temperatures off the Florida coast recently soared to over 100 degrees. We've seen deadly heatwaves in parts of the United States, Europe and Asia and one of the Earth's hottest summers on record. In fact, scientists say these temperatures are likely the warmest the planet has seen in 120,000 years and have dangerous effects on the environment, the economy and human life. Urgent action is needed to limit global warming and preserve our planet for the next generation.

最近有關氣候變化的消息發人深省。佛羅里達海岸附近的水溫最近飆升至 100 多度。我們在美國、歐洲和亞洲的部分地區看到了致命的熱浪，這是地球上有記錄以來最熱的夏季之一。事實上，科學家表示，現在的氣溫可能是地球 12 萬年來最熱的一次，並對環境、經濟和人類生活產生危險影響。需要採取緊急行動來限制全球變暖並為下一代保護我們的星球。

Our customers are seeking sustainable solutions and choosing Trane Technologies as their partner in decarbonizing the built environment and the cold chain. We're leading the way with our innovation. The end result is long-term value creation across the board for our team, our customers, our shareholders and for the planet.

我們的客戶正在尋求可持續的解決方案，並選擇特靈科技作為他們的建築環境和冷鏈脫碳合作夥伴。我們以創新引領潮流。最終結果是為我們的團隊、我們的客戶、我們的股東和地球創造長期的價值。

Moving to Slide #4. Our global team continues to execute at a high level and delivered another quarter of strong performance, showcasing the benefits of our diverse, resilient portfolio. Organic revenue was up 11%. Adjusted operating margins expanded 110 basis points and adjusted EPS grew 24%. We delivered 30%-plus organic leverage across the enterprise and in each segment, led by our commercial HVAC businesses in each region. Our residential HVAC business continued to normalize and was further impacted by a difficult comp versus the second quarter of last year when revenues were up 30%. Net, on a 2-year stack, residential revenues were up mid-teens in Q2.

轉到幻燈片 #4。我們的全球團隊繼續保持高水平執行，並在另一個季度取得了強勁業績，展示了我們多元化、有彈性的投資組合的優勢。有機收入增長 11%。調整後營業利潤率擴大 110 個基點，調整後每股收益增長 24%。在每個地區的商業 HVAC 業務的引領下，我們在整個企業和每個細分市場實現了 30% 以上的有機槓桿率。我們的住宅暖通空調業務繼續正常化，但與去年第二季度的收入增長了 30% 相比，受到了困難的進一步影響。從兩年來看，住宅收入在第二季度增長了 15% 左右。

Importantly, we're delivering strong results while increasing business reinvestments. We're accelerating high ROI projects in focused areas, including digital, electrification and factory automation. These investments are flowing through our segment results as well as through corporate expenses for enterprise-wide initiatives to drive innovation, growth and productivity well into the future.

重要的是，我們在增加業務再投資的同時取得了強勁的業績。我們正在加速數字化、電氣化和工廠自動化等重點領域的高投資回報率項目。這些投資不僅體現在我們的分部業績中，也體現在企業範圍內的計劃支出中，以推動未來的創新、增長和生產力。

Bookings remained robust after reaching unprecedented levels in 2021 with nearly 30% bookings growth. In 2021, bookings exceeded revenue by approximately $2.7 billion, nearly doubling our backlog in a single year to $5.4 billion. During 2022, bookings grew more modestly, up 5%. However, the sharp increase in absolute bookings in 2021 translated 5% bookings growth in 2022 into another 27% increase in backlog. Net, 2021 and 2022 are both important drivers of our strong backlog position of $7 billion at the end of the second quarter, which is roughly 2.5x historical levels. We've been encouraging investors to look at absolute booking levels and backlog in addition to growth rates to gain a more complete understanding of the strength of our business.

預訂量在 2021 年達到前所未有的水平後仍然保持強勁，預訂量增長了近 30%。 2021 年，預訂量超過收入約 27 億美元，我們的積壓訂單在一年內幾乎翻了一番，達到 54 億美元。 2022 年，預訂量增長較為溫和，增長了 5%。然而，2021 年絕對預訂量的急劇增長將 2022 年 5% 的預訂量增長轉化為積壓量的 27% 的額外增長。淨值來看，2021 年和 2022 年都是我們第二季度末積壓資金達到 70 億美元的重要推動因素，約為歷史水平的 2.5 倍。除了增長率之外，我們一直鼓勵投資者關注絕對預訂水平和積壓訂單，以便更全面地了解我們的業務實力。

Further, when looking at growth rates for Trane Technologies, it's important to consider a 3-year stack that includes 2021 for the reasons discussed. Commercial HVAC continues to be a standout across our segments globally. In the second quarter, commercial HVAC bookings were up nearly 40% in each region on a 3-year stack, supporting revenue growth of high teens in both the Americas and EMEA and 45% in Asia. Additionally, our commercial HVAC book-to-bill ratios were effectively 100% or higher in each region.

此外，在考慮特靈科技的增長率時，出於所討論的原因，考慮包括 2021 年在內的 3 年堆棧非常重要。商用暖通空調繼續在我們的全球細分市場中脫穎而出。第二季度，每個地區的商業暖通空調預訂量連續三年增長了近 40%，支持了美洲和歐洲、中東和非洲地區的收入增長，以及亞洲地區 45% 的收入增長。此外，我們的商業暖通空調訂單出貨比在每個地區實際上都達到了 100% 或更高。

Our end markets continue to be healthy overall, and we believe we're well positioned for strong growth in 2023. While it's premature to dial in an outlook for 2024, continued high levels of demand and our extremely strong backlog position, particularly across our commercial HVAC businesses globally, puts us in a strong position to drive growth in 2024 as well.

我們的終端市場總體上仍然保持健康，我們相信我們已做好準備，在2023 年實現強勁增長。雖然現在展望2024 年還為時過早，但持續的高需求水平和我們極其強勁的積壓狀況，尤其是在我們的商業領域全球暖通空調業務也使我們處於推動 2024 年增長的有利地位。

We expect to enter 2024 with elevated backlog of more than $6 billion.

我們預計到 2024 年，積壓訂單將超過 60 億美元。

To put that in perspective, backlog has historically represented approximately 20% of the next year's revenue. It's also worth noting that $2 billion of our $7 billion in current backlog is for equipment to be delivered in 2024. This is approximately 5x the level of backlog for the next fiscal year versus historical trends at the end of the second quarter. Our strong results through the first half, combined with healthy end markets and backlog that remains 2.5x norms positions us well to raise our full year 2023 guidance. Chris will discuss in more detail later in our prepared remarks.

從歷史上看，積壓訂單約佔下一年收入的 20%。還值得注意的是，我們當前70 億美元的積壓訂單中有20 億美元用於2024 年交付的設備。與第二季度末的歷史趨勢相比，這大約是下一財年積壓訂單水平的5倍。我們上半年的強勁業績，加上健康的終端市場和仍為正常水平 2.5 倍的積壓訂單，使我們能夠很好地提高 2023 年全年指導。克里斯稍後將在我們準備好的發言中進行更詳細的討論。

Please go to Slide #5. As we've discussed, bookings and revenue growth were broad-based globally with particular strength in our commercial HVAC businesses in all regions. Enterprise and Americas bookings were down 5% and 8%, respectively, largely due to softness in our Americas residential business, which was down approximately 20% in the quarter as that business continues to normalize. Excluding the impact of residential bookings decline, enterprise bookings were up 1% and Americas bookings were down low single digits. In our Americas segment, Commercial HVAC bookings were down mid-single digits against high teens growth comp in the prior year. Absolute bookings remained robust with growth of approximately 40% on a 3-year stack.

請轉到幻燈片#5。正如我們所討論的，預訂量和收入增長在全球範圍內廣泛，尤其是我們在所有地區的商業暖通空調業務。企業和美洲預訂量分別下降 5% 和 8%，主要是由於我們的美洲住宅業務疲軟，隨著該業務繼續正常化，該業務在本季度下降了約 20%。排除住宅預訂量下降的影響，企業預訂量增長了 1%，美洲預訂量下降了低個位數。在我們的美洲市場，商業暖通空調預訂量與上一年的高青少年增長相比下降了中個位數。絕對預訂量保持強勁，三年增長約 40%。

Commercial HVAC revenues were up high teens in the quarter, with strong growth in both equipment and services. Even with strong revenue growth, the book-to-bill ratio was approximately 100%. Commercial HVAC backlog remains highly elevated at 3x historical levels. Residential HVAC revenues were down as expected as the business continues to normalize. Revenues were down low teens. However, it's important to note that the team delivered leading revenue growth of 30% in the second quarter of 2022. On a 2-year stack, the business was up mid-teens.

本季度商業暖通空調收入增長了兩位數，設備和服務均強勁增長。即使收入增長強勁，訂單出貨比仍約為 100%。商業 HVAC 積壓訂單仍處於歷史水平的 3 倍高位。隨著業務繼續正常化，住宅暖通空調收入如預期下降。收入下降了十幾歲。然而，值得注意的是，該團隊在 2022 年第二季度實現了 30% 的領先收入增長。在 2 年的堆棧中，該業務增長了 15% 左右。

In our transport refrigeration business, we delivered strong bookings and revenue growth, up approximately 40% and 30%, respectively. Revenue strength was broad-based in North America with the big 3 truck trailer and APUs, up approximately 50%. In our EMEA segment, our commercial HVAC business delivered another strong quarter. Bookings were up mid-single digits on top of low teens growth comp in the prior year. Revenues were up high teens with strength in both equipment and services, up mid-20s and high single digits, respectively. Our transport refrigeration business is executing well in a modestly down market.

在我們的運輸製冷業務中，我們的預訂量和收入增長強勁，分別增長約 40% 和 30%。北美三大卡車拖車和 APU 的收入表現強勁，增長約 50%。在我們的歐洲、中東和非洲地區，我們的商業暖通空調業務再次實現強勁的季度業績。與上一年的青少年增長相比，預訂量增長了中個位數。由於設備和服務的強勁，收入分別增長了 20 多歲和高個位數。我們的運輸製冷業務在適度下滑的市場中表現良好。

We expect the EMEA weighted average transport markets to be down low single digits to mid-single digits in 2023 and for our Thermo King business to outperform and to be relatively flat for the year. With revenue growth of mid-single digits in Q1 and revenues down low single digits in Q2, we're well positioned to hit this target for the full year.

我們預計 2023 年 EMEA 加權平均運輸市場將下降至低個位數至中個位數，而我們的 Thermo King 業務今年將表現優於大盤且相對持平。隨著第一季度收入中個位數增長和第二季度收入下降低個位數，我們完全有能力實現全年這一目標。

In our Asia Pacific segment, the team delivered strong results with bookings up mid-single digits versus bookings up mid-teens in the prior year. Revenues were very strong, up 41%. China results were robust with bookings and revenues up 20% and 40%, respectively.

在我們的亞太地區，該團隊取得了強勁的業績，預訂量增長了中個位數，而去年的預訂量增長了中位數。收入非常強勁，增長了 41%。中國業績強勁，預訂量和收入分別增長 20% 和 40%。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Chris. Chris?

現在我想把電話轉給克里斯。克里斯？

Thanks, Dave. Please turn to Slide #6. We delivered strong revenue growth, margin expansion and EPS growth again in the second quarter. Organic revenues were up 11%, adjusted EBITDA margins were up 100 basis points and adjusted EPS was up 24%. At an enterprise level, we delivered strong organic revenue growth in both equipment and services, up low teens and high single digits, respectively. Our high-performance flywheel continues to pay dividends, with relentless investments in innovation, driving strong top line growth, margin expansion, EPS growth and powerful free cash flow.

謝謝，戴夫。請翻到幻燈片#6。第二季度我們再次實現了強勁的收入增長、利潤率擴張和每股收益增長。有機收入增長 11%，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率增長 100 個基點，調整後每股收益增長 24%。在企業層面，我們在設備和服務方面實現了強勁的有機收入增長，分別實現了低位數和高個位數的增長。我們的高性能飛輪通過對創新的不懈投資，繼續帶來紅利，推動強勁的營收增長、利潤率擴張、每股收益增長和強大的自由現金流。

Please turn to Slide #7. We've discussed the key revenue dynamics for the second quarter so I'll focus my comments on margins. We delivered strong margin expansion in each of our business segments and have highlighted the key margin drivers on the right side of the page. In each of our regions, as the supply chain continues to improve, we're driving strong leverage on volume growth, along with strong price realization and improving productivity. Near term, challenges continue in pockets of our business with associated costs, and we're managing these all across our segments as reflected in our results.

請翻到幻燈片 #7。我們已經討論了第二季度的主要收入動態，因此我將重點關注利潤率。我們在每個業務部門都實現了強勁的利潤增長，並在頁面右側突出顯示了關鍵的利潤驅動因素。在我們的每個地區，隨著供應鏈的不斷改善，我們正在推動銷量增長，同時強勁的價格實現和生產力的提高。短期內，我們業務的某些方面仍面臨相關成本方面的挑戰，我們正在跨部門管理這些挑戰，正如我們的業績所反映的那樣。

As an enterprise, we delivered about 6 points of volume and about 5 points of price in the quarter, which was slightly ahead of our expectations on both price and volume. Volume growth was robust in our commercial HVAC businesses, accompanied by strong organic leverage in excess of 30% in each region. Americas performance was led by strength in commercial HVAC and aided by robust growth in our Americas transport refrigeration business, more than offsetting continued normalization of our residential business. EMEA delivered strong incrementals in margins after accounting for approximately 9 points of M&A growth in the quarter, which negatively impacted reported leverage given year 1 integration costs.

作為企業，本季度我們交付了約 6 個點的銷量和約 5 個點的價格，這略高於我們對價格和銷量的預期。我們的商業 HVAC 業務銷量增長強勁，每個地區的有機槓桿率均超過 30%。美洲的業績主要得益於商用暖通空調領域的實力，以及美洲運輸製冷業務的強勁增長，這遠遠抵消了我們住宅業務的持續正常化。歐洲、中東和非洲地區的利潤率在本季度併購增長約 9 個百分點後實現了強勁增長，考慮到第一年的整合成本，這對報告的槓桿率產生了負面影響。

As we discussed previously, we've earmarked 70 basis points for incremental business reinvestment in 2023, which is about 30 basis points higher than normal to accelerate the timing of key projects. This is included in our guidance and reflected in segment margins and partially in corporate expenses each quarter. Now I'd like to turn the call back over to Dave.

正如我們之前討論的，我們為2023年增量業務再投資預留了70個基點，比正常水平高出約30個基點，以加快重點項目的進度。這已包含在我們的指導中，並反映在分部利潤率中，部分反映在每個季度的公司支出中。現在我想把電話轉回戴夫。

Thanks, Chris. Please turn to Slide #8. Looking forward, we see continued strong underlying demand for sustainable solutions well into the future. We see the stacking effect of policy and regulatory changes that play to our unique strengths as a leading climate innovator as tailwinds that are either early to mid-innings or future multiyear opportunities. The pace of these tailwinds has only accelerated in recent years, and with the realities of climate change all around us, it's likely we'll see this pace continue. The tailwinds impact all of our businesses as 100% of our portfolio is focused on driving more sustainable solutions for our customers.

謝謝，克里斯。請翻到幻燈片 #8。展望未來，我們看到未來對可持續解決方案的潛在需求將持續強勁。我們認為政策和監管變化的疊加效應發揮了我們作為領先氣候創新者的獨特優勢，無論是早期到中期還是未來多年的機會都是順風。近年來，這些順風車的步伐才有所加快，而且鑑於我們周圍氣候變化的現實，我們很可能會看到這種步伐繼續下去。這些有利因素影響了我們所有的業務，因為我們的產品組合 100% 專注於為客戶提供更可持續的解決方案。

In our Americas segment, our overall outlook is relatively unchanged. We see commercial strength continuing to outweigh impacts from ongoing normalization of our residential business. We expect residential to continue to normalize through Q3 but to improve from Q2, and we expect the normalization process to be complete in 2023. Commercial faces tough comps in the second half of the year with less contribution from price. So we'd expect growth rates to remain strong but moderate from the first half of 2023.

在美洲業務中，我們的整體前景相對沒有變化。我們認為商業實力繼續超過住宅業務持續正常化的影響。我們預計住宅將在第三季度繼續正常化，但較第二季度有所改善，並且我們預計正常化過程將於 2023 年完成。商業地產在下半年面臨嚴峻的競爭，價格貢獻較小。因此，我們預計從 2023 年上半年開始，增長率將保持強勁但溫和。

There's no change to our transport refrigeration outlook overall. ACT has modestly lowered their forecast for 2023 from flattish to a decline of low single digits, largely related to trucking OEM build constraints. We expect our Thermo King business in the Americas to outperform with low to mid-single-digit growth for the year.

我們的運輸製冷前景總體上沒有變化。 ACT 將 2023 年的預測從持平下調至低個位數下降，這在很大程度上與卡車運輸 OEM 製造限制有關。我們預計我們在美洲的冷王業務今年將取得低至中個位數的增長，表現優於大盤。

One additional callout is related to the timing of our revenues in our Thermo King business. In the first half of the year, Thermo King delivered 20% growth, outpacing the North America transport markets, which were flat overall. A portion of that outgrowth was driven by timing of customer deliveries committed in the first half versus the second half of the year. Additionally, Thermo King delivered extremely strong results in Q3 of 2022, up 60%. Given this difficult comp and the timing dynamics between the first half and the second half, we expect our Thermo King business to be down approximately 10% in the third quarter.

另一項值得注意的事情與我們冷王業務的收入時間有關。上半年，冷王實現了 20% 的增長，超過了整體持平的北美運輸市場。這一增長的部分原因是上半年與下半年客戶承諾的交付時間推動的。此外，冷王在 2022 年第三季度取得了極其強勁的業績，增長了 60%。考慮到這種困難的比較以及上半年和下半年之間的時間動態，我們預計我們的冷王業務在第三季度將下降約 10%。

In our EMEA segment, the second quarter was strong and our outlook for the full year is also unchanged. Like the Americas, commercial HVAC faces tough comps with less contribution from price in the second half of the year, so we would expect growth rates to moderate. Our Thermo King business in EMEA is unchanged. The forecast for the overall market calls for low single-digit to mid-single-digit decline, and we expect our Thermo King business to be flattish.

在我們的歐洲、中東和非洲地區，第二季度表現強勁，我們對全年的前景也沒有改變。與美洲一樣，商業暖通空調在下半年面臨著嚴峻的競爭，價格貢獻較小，因此我們預計增長率將放緩。我們在歐洲、中東和非洲地區的 Thermo King 業務沒有變化。對整個市場的預測是低個位數到中個位數的下降，我們預計我們的冷王業務將持平。

Turning to Asia Pacific. Our outlook for the region is largely unchanged, with strength continuing in key verticals as highlighted. Our team delivered a better-than-expected second quarter against a relatively soft comp from the prior year, given COVID-19 lockdowns in China. The strong Q2 results pulled in a modest amount of revenue from the third quarter based on timing of customer deliveries. Overall, the year is shaping up as expected with a solid growth outlook. Now I'd like to turn the call back over to Chris. Chris?

轉向亞太地區。我們對該地區的前景基本沒有變化，正如所強調的那樣，關鍵垂直領域繼續保持強勁勢頭。鑑於中國因新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 疫情實施封鎖，我們的團隊在第二季度的業績好於預期，而去年的業績相對疲軟。根據客戶交付時間，第二季度的強勁業績為第三季度帶來了一定的收入。總體而言，今年的發展符合預期，增長前景穩健。現在我想把電話轉回給克里斯。克里斯？

Thanks, Dave. Please turn to Slide #9. As Dave highlighted at the beginning of the call, we're midway through the year with strong results, near-record backlog and good visibility into the balance of the year. All in, we're confident in raising our full year revenue and EPS guidance for 2023. We're raising our full year organic revenue growth guidance to approximately 8%, up from our prior guidance range of 7% to 8%, reflecting strong results in the first half and improving visibility into the balance of the year across the portfolio.

謝謝，戴夫。請翻到幻燈片 #9。正如戴夫在電話會議開始時強調的那樣，我們正處於今年中期，取得了強勁的業績，積壓訂單接近創紀錄水平，並且對今年的剩餘情況有良好的了解。總而言之，我們有信心提高 2023 年全年收入和每股收益指導。我們將全年有機收入增長指導從之前 7% 至 8% 的指導範圍提高到 8% 左右，反映出強勁的增長勢頭上半年的業績，並提高整個投資組合今年餘額的可見性。

Including M&A, reported revenues are expected to be up approximately 10%. We're raising and tightening our EPS guidance to a range of $8.80 to $8.90, up from a range of $8.30 to $8.50 or up $0.45 at the midpoint. Our new adjusted EPS guidance indicates earnings growth of 20% to 21% in 2023. Importantly, we continue to expect to generate powerful free cash flow of equal to or greater than 100% of adjusted net earnings or approximately $2 billion.

包括併購在內，報告收入預計將增長約 10%。我們將 EPS 指導範圍從 8.30 美元至 8.50 美元上調至 8.80 美元至 8.90 美元，中間值上調 0.45 美元。我們新的調整後每股收益指引表明，2023 年盈利將增長20% 至21%。重要的是，我們繼續預計將產生等於或大於調整後淨利潤100% 的強大自由現金流，即約20 億美元。

We're raising our organic leverage guidance to 30%-plus, up from 25%-plus as we expect the strength we've delivered in the first half of the year to continue in the second half. We also believe it's constructive to give you some color around our expectations for the third quarter to assist with your modeling. We expect organic revenues of approximately 7% in the third quarter, with strong 30%-plus organic leverage. We also expect approximately 3 points of M&A in the third and fourth quarters. We closed on 2 acquisitions in the second quarter, so our expected M&A contribution in the third and fourth quarters is a bit higher than it is for the first half and for the full year. Please see Slide 18 for additional information that may assist with your models.

我們將有機槓桿率指引從 25% 以上提高到 30% 以上，因為我們預計今年上半年的強勁勢頭將在下半年持續。我們還認為，為您提供有關我們對第三季度的預期的一些信息以協助您進行建模是有建設性的。我們預計第三季度的有機收入約為 7%，有機槓桿率高達 30% 以上。我們還預計第三季度和第四季度的併購活動將增加約 3 個點。我們在第二季度完成了兩筆收購，因此我們預計第三季度和第四季度的併購貢獻略高於上半年和全年。請參閱幻燈片 18，了解可能對您的模型有幫助的其他信息。

Please go to Slide #10. We remain on track to deliver $300 million of run rate savings from business transformation by 2023. Importantly, we continue to invest these cost savings in high ROI projects to further fuel innovation, growth and productivity. Our continuous improvement mindset is an integral part of our business operating system and is designed to drive gross productivity each year to offset other inflation. While it's been difficult to realize meaningful levels of productivity in recent years, given the supply chain and other macro challenges, productivity has been improving as supply chains recover. This is reflected in our strong first half results and our updated 2023 organic leverage target of 30%-plus.

請轉到幻燈片 #10。我們仍有望在 2023 年之前通過業務轉型實現 3 億美元的運行率節省。重要的是，我們將繼續將這些成本節省投資於高投資回報率項目，以進一步推動創新、增長和生產力。我們持續改進的心態是我們業務操作系統的一個組成部分，旨在每年提高總生產率以抵消其他通貨膨脹。儘管近年來很難實現有意義的生產力水平，但考慮到供應鍊和其他宏觀挑戰，生產力一直在隨著供應鏈的複蘇而提高。這反映在我們強勁的上半年業績和更新後的 2023 年有機槓桿率目標為 30% 以上。

Please go to Slide #11. We remain committed to our balanced capital allocation strategy, focused on consistently deploying excess cash to opportunities with the highest return for shareholders. First, we continue to strengthen our core business through relentless business reinvestment. Second, we're committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet that provides us with continued optionality as our markets evolve. Third, we expect to consistently deploy 100% of excess cash over time. Our balanced approach includes strategic M&A that further improves long-term shareholder returns and share repurchases as the stock trades below our calculated intrinsic value.

請轉到幻燈片 #11。我們仍然致力於平衡資本配置策略，專注於持續將多餘現金配置到為股東帶來最高回報的機會。首先，我們通過不斷的業務再投資繼續強化我們的核心業務。其次，我們致力於維持強勁的資產負債表，隨著市場的發展，這為我們提供了持續的選擇餘地。第三，我們預計隨著時間的推移，將持續部署 100% 的多餘現金。我們的平衡方法包括戰略併購，進一步提高長期股東回報，並在股票交易價格低於我們計算的內在價值時回購股票。

Please turn to Slide #12 and I'll provide an update on our capital deployment for 2023. Year-to-date, we've deployed $1.2 billion in cash with $341 million to dividends, $535 million to M&A and $300 million to share repurchases. We have $2.9 billion remaining under the current share repurchase authorization and our shares remain attractive, trading below our calculated intrinsic value. Our M&A pipeline remains active, and we have deployed $535 million year-to-date for bolt-on leading technology acquisitions and equity investments.

請參閱第12 張幻燈片，我將提供2023 年資本部署的最新信息。年初至今，我們已部署12 億美元現金，其中3.41 億美元用於股息，5.35 億美元用於併購，3 億美元用於股票回購。目前的股票回購授權還剩 29 億美元，我們的股票仍然具有吸引力，交易價格低於我們計算的內在價值。我們的併購渠道仍然活躍，今年迄今我們已部署 5.35 億美元用於補充領先技術收購和股權投資。

During Q2, we acquired a leading industrial process cooling technology company in EMEA and a precision temperature-controlled cooling company in the life sciences vertical in the Americas. All in, we're on track to deploy approximately $2.5 billion in cash in 2023. Our strong free cash flow, liquidity and balance sheet continue to give us excellent capital allocation optionality moving forward.

第二季度，我們收購了歐洲、中東和非洲地區一家領先的工業過程冷卻技術公司和美洲生命科學垂直領域的一家精密溫控冷卻公司。總而言之，我們有望在 2023 年部署約 25 億美元的現金。我們強大的自由現金流、流動性和資產負債表將繼續為我們提供出色的資本配置選擇。

Now I'd like to turn the call back over to Dave. Dave?

現在我想把電話轉回戴夫。戴夫？

Thanks, Chris. Please go to Slide #14. Today, I'll take just a minute to provide an update on the transport refrigeration markets as we know this is a topic of interest for investors. The key takeaway is that while there has been a modest movement in the ACT North America forecast from flattish to down low single digits for 2023, we're not seeing material changes that would impact our full year outlook, given our strong backlog and bookings expectations. Overall, we expect our Thermo King business in the Americas to be up low to mid-single digits in 2023, which reflects several points of market outgrowth.

謝謝，克里斯。請轉到幻燈片 #14。今天，我將花一分鐘時間介紹運輸製冷市場的最新情況，因為我們知道這是投資者感興趣的話題。關鍵要點是，雖然 ACT 北美地區 2023 年的預測略有變化，從持平到低個位數下降，但考慮到我們強勁的積壓和預訂預期，我們沒有看到會影響我們全年前景的重大變化。總體而言，我們預計 2023 年我們在美洲的 Thermo King 業務將增長到中個位數，這反映了市場增長的幾個點。

Our EMEA Thermo King outlook is also unchanged. The overall EMEA transport refrigeration market is expected to be down low to mid-single digits. We expect to outperform end markets and to be roughly flat for 2023. In both segments, we're on pace to achieve these targets.

我們對 EMEA Thermo King 的展望也沒有變化。整個歐洲、中東和非洲運輸製冷市場預計將下降到中個位數。我們預計 2023 年的表現將優於終端市場，並大致持平。在這兩個領域，我們都在努力實現這些目標。

Please go to Slide #15. ACT continues to provide long-term forecast for refrigerated trailers, and they are projecting strong demand through 2028 after low single-digit dips in 2023 and 2024. The data supports the view we've been highlighting for some time now that this is a strong mid-40,000 unit market, plus or minus a few percentage points.

請轉到幻燈片 #15。 ACT 繼續提供冷藏拖車的長期預測，他們預計在2023 年和2024 年出現個位數低位下滑後，到2028 年需求將強勁。該數據支持了我們一段時間以來一直強調的觀點，即這是一個強勁的需求40,000 單位市場中，上下浮動幾個百分點。

Please go to Slide #16. In summary, we're positioned to outperform over the long term. We're proud to have recently been recognized by Fast Company as one of the best workplaces for innovators and also certified as a Great Place To Work for the third consecutive year. It's our culture and our people that fuel our innovation and fulfill on our purpose each and every day. Our strong second quarter performance, resilient portfolio and tremendous backlog gives us confidence in again raising our full year revenues and EPS guidance and reaffirming our full year free cash flow conversion guidance. We believe we have the right strategy, the best team and a solid foundation in place to deliver strong performance in 2023 and differentiated long-term shareholder returns. And now we'd be happy to take your questions. Operator?

請轉到幻燈片 #16。總而言之，從長遠來看，我們的表現將優於大盤。我們很自豪最近被《Fast Company》評為創新者最佳工作場所之一，並連續第三年被認證為“最佳工作場所”。我們的文化和員工每天都在推動我們的創新並實現我們的目標。我們強勁的第二季度業績、富有彈性的投資組合和巨大的積壓訂單使我們有信心再次提高全年收入和每股收益指導，並重申我們的全年自由現金流轉換指導。我們相信，我們擁有正確的戰略、最好的團隊和堅實的基礎，能夠在 2023 年實現強勁的業績和差異化的長期股東回報。現在我們很樂意回答您的問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自花旗集團的安迪·卡普洛維茨（Andy Kaplowitz）。

So Dave or Chris, you delivered 30% leverage in Q2, expecting 30% for the year, which obviously is above your usual 25%-plus guide. The biggest reason that you're getting -- is it that you're getting more than 20 to 30 basis points of price versus costs in the quarter and for the year? And you mentioned higher-than-usual investments this year as well as accelerating productivity. So could 30% really be the new 25% potentially as you go into '24 over the longer terms in terms of incremental margin?

因此，戴夫或克里斯，您在第二季度提供了 30% 的槓桿率，預計今年的槓桿率為 30%，這顯然高於您通常的 25% 以上指導。您獲得的最大原因是——您在本季度和當年獲得的價格與成本的比值超過 20 到 30 個基點？您提到今年的投資高於平常以及生產率的提高。那麼，從長期來看，就增量利潤而言，30% 真的有可能成為 24 年新的 25% 嗎？

Andy, it's Chris. Thanks for the question. Look, we're proud where we delivered 30% organic leverage through the first half of the year, and it's giving us a lot of confidence to be 30% or greater in 2023. Look, we're leveraging all parts of the P&L. Price/cost is coming in better than expected. We typically target 20 to 30 basis points of price/cost spread. We're going to do better than that this year.

安迪，是克里斯。謝謝你的提問。看，我們為今年上半年實現了 30% 的有機槓桿率感到自豪，這讓我們有很大信心在 2023 年達到 30% 或更高。看，我們正在利用損益表的所有部分。價格/成本比預期要好。我們通常將價格/成本價差目標定為 20 至 30 個基點。今年我們會做得更好。

We're seeing a recovery at the supply chain. It is driving improved productivity, less inefficiencies in our plants. And with that higher volume growth with a fewer inefficiencies, we're really getting some nice strong incrementals. What we're really seeing is a dovetail here between price/cost contribution, which will normalize in the second half of the year. We're seeing productivity improving with that improved supply chain and ultimately, like I said, driving those higher volumes.

我們看到供應鏈正在復蘇。它正在提高我們工廠的生產力，減少效率低下的情況。隨著銷量的增長和低效率的減少，我們確實獲得了一些不錯的強勁增量。我們真正看到的是價格/成本貢獻之間的吻合，這將在今年下半年正常化。我們看到生產力隨著供應鏈的改善而提高，最終，正如我所說，推動了銷量的增加。

We're continuing to invest incrementally. We're still targeting 60 to 70 basis points of incremental investment, call it, 30 to 40 basis points above normal, and we really like that formula. So really, it's all parts of the P&L that are working and giving us confidence on the 30%-plus, Andy, for this year. On your question longer term, we do like the model at 25%-plus organic leverage into the future. We like that optionality that it gives us to keep reinvesting into the business. But as we go into each and every year, we'll kind of call it as we see it at that time. We do like that long-term target.

我們將繼續增量投資。我們的增量投資目標仍然是 60 到 70 個基點，可以說比正常水平高 30 到 40 個基點，我們真的很喜歡這個公式。所以，安迪，實際上，損益表的所有部分都在發揮作用，讓我們對今年的 30% 以上充滿信心。關於你的問題，從長遠來看，我們確實喜歡未來有機槓桿率超過 25% 的模型。我們喜歡這種選擇，它讓我們能夠繼續對業務進行再投資。但當我們進入每一年時，我們都會按照當時的情況來稱呼它。我們確實喜歡這個長期目標。

Well, I tried, Chris. And then, Dave, can you give us more color into how you're thinking about commercial HVAC markets in the Americas? You talked about good 3-year stack. We know there are tough comps. Maybe you could give us your thoughts on book-to-bill going forward there. Are there any markets that you would term as slowing? And then you kept the $6 billion overall minimum backlog for the company. With 2 quarters behind you, would you say the chances are higher that you'd end the year closer to $7 billion than $6 billion? Any thoughts around that minimum?

好吧，我試過了，克里斯。然後，戴夫，您能給我們更多關於您如何看待美洲商業暖通空調市場的信息嗎？你談到了良好的 3 年堆棧。我們知道競爭很艱難。也許您可以向我們提供您對未來從訂單到賬單的想法。您認為哪些市場正在放緩？然後你為公司保留了 60 億美元的最低積壓訂單。現在已經過去 2 個季度了，您是否認為年底實現 70 億美元收入接近 60 億美元的可能性更大？關於這個最低限度有什麼想法嗎？

Okay. That's a long question, Andy. I'll try to remember it all. But as we said, I think it's going to be $6 billion -- north of $6 billion for the year, I'll start there. Look, I'm proud of what the team has been able to deliver. If you look at the revenue growth for commercial HVAC in the second quarter, it was high teens. And despite that high revenue growth, our book-to-bill was approximately 100%. So you could just see the absolute bookings numbers are just very, very strong.

好的。這是一個很長的問題，安迪。我會盡力記住這一切。但正如我們所說，我認為今年的支出將達到 60 億美元——超過 60 億美元，我將從這裡開始。看，我為團隊所取得的成就感到自豪。如果你看看第二季度商業暖通空調的收入增長，你會發現它是十幾歲的。儘管收入增長如此之高，我們的訂單出貨率仍約為 100%。所以你可以看到絕對預訂量非常非常強勁。

If you look at where the strength is coming from, it's really broad-based across several verticals, so think of data centers, think of high tech, think of health care, think of ESSER funding in the education vertical, all really driving a lot of growth for us in our commercial HVAC business, and that team continues to execute at a very, very high level.

如果你看看力量來自哪裡，它確實是跨多個垂直領域的廣泛基礎，所以想想數據中心，想想高科技，想想醫療保健，想想教育垂直領域的ESSER 資金，所有這些都真正推動了很多為我們的商業暖通空調業務帶來了增長，並且該團隊繼續以非常非常高的水平執行。

Now you're seeing -- we're starting to see some of the megaprojects now really come in. And our team is just doing a great job of triaging how we call on those customers. This is where a direct sales force, Andy, I know you and I have talked about this before, it's really a competitive advantage and it's a global direct sales force. We recently were working with a customer in Texas on a semiconductor plant. And just to give you some of the complexity, these are complex projects, but here's a project where the owner was located in South Korea. The engineer was located in Portland, Oregon. The general contractor was also out of South Korea. The mechanical was located in Texas. And here, our team triages has direct contact with all of those influencers and really allows us to create a differentiated value proposition for the customers. So short answer is we continue to see lots of nice growth.

現在你看到了——我們開始看到一些大型項目現在真正投入使用。我們的團隊在分類我們如何拜訪這些客戶方面做得很好。這就是直銷隊伍，安迪，我知道你和我之前已經討論過這一點，這確實是一種競爭優勢，而且是一支全球直銷隊伍。我們最近正在與德克薩斯州的一家客戶合作建設一家半導體工廠。只是為了讓您了解一些複雜性，這些都是複雜的項目，但這是一個業主位於韓國的項目。該工程師位於俄勒岡州波特蘭。總承包商也來自韓國。該機械位於德克薩斯州。在這裡，我們的團隊分類與所有這些有影響力的人有直接聯繫，這確實使我們能夠為客戶創造差異化的價值主張。簡而言之，我們繼續看到許多良好的增長。

Our next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

So it sounds like slightly better, perhaps, commercial HVAC sales outlook, unchanged in transport largely, and then resi HVAC may be slightly worse. So just wanted to sort of ask you on that last piece. Is the right way to think about that, that you had sort of volumes down high teens in the second quarter, that narrows in Q3 and then you're sort of flat to modestly down in the fourth quarter? Is that the way to think about that resi market? And any thoughts on the sort of inventory levels sitting out there for you?

因此，商業暖通空調的銷售前景聽起來可能稍好一些，交通運輸方面基本沒有變化，然後住宅暖通空調的銷售前景可能會稍差一些。所以只是想問你關於最後一篇的問題。考慮這個問題的正確方法是，第二季度的銷量下降了兩位數，第三季度收窄，然後第四季度的銷量持平或小幅下降？這是思考 Resi 市場的方式嗎？對於您的庫存水平有什麼想法嗎？

Julian, this is Dave. I'll start. Look, I think I'll go back to a year ago, okay? And the second quarter of 2022, our revenue growth in the resi business was 30%. I don't remember the exact market number but I believe it was up in the teens. So we had a lot of growth there in the second quarter. Obviously, the second quarter of this year, we're down in the mid-teens. If you look at it on a 2-year comp, you'd say we're still up in the mid-teens.

朱利安，這是戴夫。我開始吧。聽著，我想我會回到一年前，好嗎？ 2022年第二季度，我們的RESI業務收入增長了30%。我不記得確切的市場數字，但我相信它在十幾歲左右。所以我們在第二季度有很大的增長。顯然，今年第二季度，我們的業績下降到了十幾歲左右。如果你看一下兩年的比較，你會說我們還處於十幾歲左右。

So as far as inventory goes in the channel, look, we're normalizing in 2023 in our res business. And it's -- we think that normalization process is going to continue in the back half of the year. We're calling residential to be down high single digits on an EBIT basis for the year. We think the third quarter will be better than the second quarter, but there's still going to be some normalization that has to occur in that business.

因此，就渠道中的庫存而言，我們的資源業務將在 2023 年實現正常化。我們認為正常化進程將在今年下半年繼續。我們預計住宅今年的息稅前利潤將出現高個位數下降。我們認為第三季度將好於第二季度，但該業務仍需實現一些正常化。

If you look a little bit forward into 2024, we think the normalization process, at least from an inventory standpoint, will be behind us in 2023. A little early to call what 2024 will be. However, we do expect some tailwinds coming in from policy, specifically around IRA. Don't -- can't size that yet because the rules are still a little unclear on IRA, but we do believe it will be a tailwind for our businesses in both the residential and in commercial. Chris, anything you want to add?

如果你稍微展望一下 2024 年，我們認為至少從庫存的角度來看，正常化進程將在 2023 年過去。現在判斷 2024 年會是什麼樣子還為時過早。然而，我們確實預計政策將帶來一些推動力，特別是圍繞 IRA 的政策。還不能確定規模，因為 IRA 的規則仍然有點不清楚，但我們確實相信這將成為我們住宅和商業業務的順風車。克里斯，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Going back to Q2, Q3 last year, I think we felt like we led in price over 2021 and 2022, so that is a part of the reason in the tough comp. And to Dave's guidance on the full year, revenue is down mid-single digits, units down high singles. We've built into our guide plus or minus revenues down mid-singles. We feel like that's part of our guidance that we've updated here on top line revenue growth and our earnings per share.

回到去年第二季度、第三季度，我認為我們感覺我們在 2021 年和 2022 年的價格上處於領先地位，所以這是艱難的競爭中的部分原因。根據戴夫對全年的指導，收入下降了中個位數，單位數量下降了高個位數。我們在指南中加入了中單收入的加減值。我們認為這是我們在這裡更新的關於營收增長和每股收益的指導的一部分。

That's great. And then just my second question on the backlog outlook, maybe to ask it a slightly different way from the prior question. But pre-COVID, I think the backlog to sales coverage was 20%. Last 18 months, it's run at sort of 40%-plus. So is the sort of the broad idea here that, that coverage shrinks slowly but surely, but ends up at a place well above where you were pre COVID. Is that how we should sort of think about the backlog? And so your commercial HVAC orders, therefore, don't see a big drop from current levels?

那太棒了。然後是我關於積壓前景的第二個問題，也許是以與前一個問題略有不同的方式提出的。但在新冠疫情爆發之前，我認為銷售覆蓋率的積壓是 20%。過去 18 個月，它的運行速度在 40% 以上。這裡的總體想法是，覆蓋範圍緩慢但肯定地縮小，但最終會遠遠高於新冠疫情爆發前的水平。這就是我們應該如何考慮積壓的情況嗎？因此，您的商業暖通空調訂單不會比當前水平大幅下降？

Julian, it's Chris. I'll start. And I think about the backlog at the end of December to now at the end of the second quarter, backlog is up about $100 million. But you're seeing residential execute through its normalization, Thermo King executing through its backlog. And actually commercial HVAC is up from even 6 months ago. So we just continue to see very strong strength there.

朱利安，是克里斯。我開始吧。我認為從 12 月底到現在第二季度末的積壓，積壓大約增加了 1 億美元。但你會看到住宅通過標準化執行，冷王通過積壓執行。實際上，商業暖通空調系統甚至比 6 個月前有所上升。所以我們繼續看到那裡非常強大的實力。

Our view is we're going to be greater than $6 billion going into the end of 2023. It's going to set us up very well for healthy revenue growth in 2024. And I think it will continue to be a high-grade problem we're going to have for a little bit of time to come. The backlog will normalize over time. We're just not seeing very much of that happening this year. In Dave's comments, $2 billion of the current backlog here at the end of the second quarter is already built for 2024, and that's 5x the normal level we'd have here at the end of the second quarter.

我們的觀點是，到 2023 年底，我們的收入將超過 60 億美元。這將為我們在 2024 年實現健康的收入增長奠定良好的基礎。我認為這將繼續成為我們面臨的一個高級問題。未來還有一段時間。隨著時間的推移，積壓情況將趨於正常化。今年我們並沒有看到太多這樣的事情發生。在戴夫的評論中，第二季度末當前積壓的 20 億美元已經為 2024 年建造，這是第二季度末正常水平的 5 倍。

So we're getting a lot of visibility into next year already. And as you mentioned, a normal percentage of the next 12 months of revenue in backlog is 20%. Dave won't let me commit to $30 billion of revenue next year. We end the year at $6 billion of backlog. But it will normalize to your point, Julian. It's just going to take some time, but we're still seeing some very strong strength in commercial HVAC right now.

因此，我們已經對明年有了很多了解。正如您所提到的，未來 12 個月積壓收入的正常百分比是 20%。戴夫不會讓我承諾明年的收入達到 300 億美元。到年底，我們的積壓金額為 60 億美元。但它會正常化到你的觀點，朱利安。這只是需要一些時間，但我們現在仍然看到商業暖通空調領域有一些非常強大的實力。

Our next question comes from the line of Josh Pokrzywinski with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Josh Pokrzywinski。

Dave, you mentioned ESSER and IRA a couple of times, IRA specifically having a hard time quantifying just yet. But maybe thinking about how those 2 maybe intersect and then diverge. Where are we in sort of the total ESSER spending, whether it's orders or shipments? And then do you feel like IRA will be similar sized, larger, smaller? Any way you can kind of dimensionalize those 2 things as we're maybe maturing in one and entering the other?

戴夫，您多次提到 ESSER 和 IRA，特別是 IRA 目前還很難量化。但也許要考慮一下這兩者如何交叉然後分離。埃索的總支出（無論是訂單還是發貨）處於什麼位置？然後你覺得 IRA 的規模會相似、更大還是更小？當我們可能在其中一件事上成熟並進入另一件事時，有什麼方法可以將這兩件事維度化嗎？

Yes, I'll start with ESSER. I think if you look at it from a revenue standpoint, as I've said, it's middle innings. If you look at it from an order standpoint, it's obviously a little bit ahead of that because we have orders in our backlog for this. Our team has just done a great job there working with school systems across the country and really helping them -- help them increase the ability for them to have a safe environment for the children that are learning there.

是的，我將從埃索開始。我認為，如果你從收入的角度來看，正如我所說，這是中局。如果你從訂單的角度來看，它顯然有點超前，因為我們的積壓訂單中有這方面的訂單。我們的團隊剛剛與全國各地的學校系統合作，做得非常出色，並真正幫助他們——幫助他們提高能力，為在那裡學習的孩子們提供一個安全的環境。

And it really started -- I think you heard me say this before, it started when we were doing indoor air qualities. We created road maps and we're really executing to that. So revenue standpoint, think of it mid-single digit.

它真的開始了——我想你以前聽我說過這個，它開始於我們在做室內空氣質量時。我們制定了路線圖，並且正在切實執行。因此，從收入的角度來看，將其視為中個位數。

IRA, it's all in front of us, okay? It's going to be a 2024 tailwind. Very difficult to size right now because it's going to be -- each state may have a different set of standards, and we're trying to understand all those different standards now. It will be a tailwind. We're just trying to size it. With the breadth of our portfolio, regardless of how the final rules are written, we'll have a product that will be part of a solution for a customer. And I know we tend to want to think of IRA in the residential space, and it will certainly be a tailwind there. It's also going to be a tailwind for our commercial business. And so we're working both fronts of it, and stay tuned. And as we learn more, we'll tell others.

IRA，這一切都在我們面前，好嗎？這將是 2024 年的順風車。現在很難確定規模，因為每個州可能都有一套不同的標準，我們現在正在努力了解所有這些不同的標準。這將是順風。我們只是想調整它的大小。憑藉我們產品組合的廣泛性，無論最終規則如何編寫，我們都會擁有一款產品，該產品將成為客戶解決方案的一部分。我知道我們傾向於在住宅領域考慮 IRA，它肯定會成為住宅領域的順風車。這也將成為我們商業業務的順風車。因此，我們正在這兩個方面開展工作，敬請期待。隨著我們了解更多，我們會告訴其他人。

Got it, that's helpful. And then maybe just on the backlog. If I recall correctly, you guys don't count service in that reported backlog number. If that's correct, maybe give us some context for how service backlogs look if you had to parse it out that way? And how much kind of extra visibility you have on that front?

明白了，很有幫助。然後也許只是積壓。如果我沒記錯的話，你們並沒有將服務計入報告的積壓數量中。如果這是正確的，如果您必須以這種方式解析服務積壓，也許可以為我們提供一些有關服務積壓的外觀的背景信息？您在這方面有多少額外的可見性？

You're correct. It doesn't provide any service. We don't include that in our backlog. Difficult to say. Services -- first of all, our service business is a great business, okay? It was up again high single digits in the second quarter. Chris, I think we're now -- I think I could say 6 years now where we have compound annual growth rate of high single digits across the globe, okay? So this is a very strong business that's key to our strategy and really allows us to be tethered to our customers for the life of our products.

你是對的。它不提供任何服務。我們不會將其納入我們的積壓工作中。很難說。服務——首先，我們的服務業務是一項偉大的業務，好嗎？第二季度再次實現高個位數增長。克里斯，我想我們現在——我想我可以說，六年後，我們在全球範圍內的複合年增長率將達到高個位數，好嗎？因此，這是一項非常強大的業務，對我們的戰略至關重要，並且真正使我們能夠在產品的整個生命週期中與客戶緊密相連。

We don't -- it's difficult to ascertain a backlog because if you start thinking of multiyear service agreements, it'd just really be difficult to say if it's a 3-year service agreement. A lot of times, we like to add things to service agreements so it'd be hard to quantify that number.

我們沒有——很難確定積壓的訂單，因為如果你開始考慮多年服務協議，就很難判斷它是否是三年服務協議。很多時候，我們喜歡在服務協議中添加一些內容，因此很難量化這個數字。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Snyder with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的克里斯·斯奈德。

Obviously, a lot of focus on orders. And I wanted to follow up on the prior commentary around the U.S. megaprojects that we're seeing. Can you just maybe talk a little bit about how these projects flow into orders for Trane and then ultimately, revenue for Trane just to kind of get a sense for what that lag could be?

顯然，人們非常關注訂單。我想跟進之前關於我們所看到的美國大型項目的評論。您能否稍微談談這些項目如何轉化為特靈的訂單，最終轉化為特靈的收入，以便了解這種滯後可能是什麼？

Yes. Chris, good question. It's -- we have a very -- part of our operating system is a very detailed process that we follow. So we start all the way in the planning phase. We then move to permitting. We then go to engineering. We then go to groundbreaking and site prep then through construction. So it's a very detailed approach you need to follow. And the earlier you're involved, the more value you're going to create for the customer.

是的。克里斯，好問題。我們操作系統的一個非常重要的部分是我們遵循的一個非常詳細的流程。所以我們從規劃階段就開始了。然後我們轉向許可。然後我們去工程。然後我們進行破土動工和場地準備，然後進行施工。因此，這是您需要遵循的非常詳細的方法。您參與得越早，為客戶創造的價值就越大。

As far as the timing on these, it depends on the type of project, okay? If it's a semiconductor plant, that process could take 3.5, 4 years from planning all the way through completion. Think about HVAC equipment probably being installed and operating maybe 9 to 12 months before operation of the facility. So you can start to back that up as to when you start to see orders. That could be -- it's a bit different on a battery plant, a little bit shorter duration.

至於時間安排，這取決於項目的類型，好嗎？如果是一家半導體工廠，從規劃到完成可能需要 3.5 到 4 年的時間。考慮一下 HVAC 設備可能在設施運營前 9 至 12 個月安裝並運行。因此，當您開始看到訂單時，您就可以開始支持這一點。這可能是——電池廠的情況有點不同，持續時間稍微短一些。

But again, it's really being involved early in the planning phase and then all through the process. And again, these are very complex projects. So you often have influencers in different parts of the globe that you need to have relationships with and be able to call on.

但同樣，它確實參與了規劃階段的早期，然後貫穿整個過程。再說一次，這些都是非常複雜的項目。因此，您經常需要與全球不同地區的有影響力的人建立關係並能夠向他們求助。

And if I could follow up on data center, another big focus in the market right now. I mean, it's a vertical that the company has always done well in. Can you maybe talk about how activity is trending here? Is the business seeing any impact from AI investment into data centers? Is that still on the horizon? Any color or outlook there would be helpful.

如果我可以跟進數據中心，這是目前市場的另一個重點。我的意思是，該公司在這個垂直領域一直表現出色。您能談談這裡的活動趨勢嗎？企業是否看到人工智能投資對數據中心產生任何影響？那還在地平線上嗎？任何顏色或外觀都會有幫助。

Yes, Chris. Well, thanks for the question, Chris. Yes, it is a vertical that we've been strong in for a long time, okay? And the answer on AI and the new GPU chip that's now going to be used with AR predominantly with AI, that's a graphic process unit. These units produce a lot more heat. So think of a conventional CPU or central processing unit versus a GPU, graphics process unit. The graphics process unit throws off about 3x the amount of heat versus what we've seen in the past.

是的，克里斯。嗯，謝謝你的提問，克里斯。是的，這是我們長期以來一直擅長的垂直領域，好嗎？人工智能和新的 GPU 芯片的答案是圖形處理單元，該芯片現在將主要與 AR 一起使用，主要與人工智能一起使用。這些裝置產生更多的熱量。因此，請考慮一下傳統的 CPU 或中央處理單元與 GPU、圖形處理單元。與我們過去看到的相比，圖形處理單元散發的熱量約為 3 倍。

So if you take that and you think about a data center, the cooling loads within data centers are going to have to change. And we're working with a lot of data center customers because we have a lot of really neat solutions around these high heat applications. So it's definitely going to have an impact on the data centers of tomorrow, how they're being constructed, how they're being planned. And I would tell you that our teams are working very closely with our customers and developing really creative solutions.

因此，如果您考慮一下數據中心，就會發現數據中心內的冷卻負載將不得不改變。我們正在與許多數據中心客戶合作，因為我們圍繞這些高熱應用有很多非常巧妙的解決方案。因此，它肯定會對未來的數據中心、數據中心的構建方式和規劃方式產生影響。我想告訴您，我們的團隊正在與客戶密切合作，開發真正有創意的解決方案。

Our next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的喬·里奇。

Chris, I know that you don't want to give, I guess, maybe too many details on just price/cost but following up on Andy's question from earlier. I'm just curious like the benefit that you got in 2Q, are you expecting that benefit to be fairly consistent through the remainder of the year? Or is it kind of like the biggest benefit you'll see in 2023? And then as you kind of think about the transformational cost out beyond this year, I'm just curious like what's in store beyond 2023?

克里斯，我知道你不想提供太多關於價格/成本的細節，但我想繼續回答安迪之前的問題。我只是好奇您在第二季度獲得的收益，您是否期望該收益在今年剩餘時間內保持相當一致？或者這是否是 2023 年您將看到的最大好處？然後，當你思考今年之後的轉型成本時，我很好奇 2023 年之後會發生什麼？

Yes, Joe, we did see price of around 5 points in the second quarter. We do expect that to moderate into the second half of the year. If I think about Q3 and Q4 of 2022, we delivered over 10 points of price in the second half of last year so we do expect that to moderate. As I think about the full year, our 8% organic revenue growth guide, we still see a bias towards a little bit more volume growth and price.

是的，喬，我們確實看到第二季度的價格上漲了 5 點左右。我們確實預計這種情況會在下半年有所緩解。如果我考慮 2022 年第三季度和第四季度，我們在去年下半年的價格上漲了超過 10 個點，因此我們確實預計價格會放緩。當我考慮全年 8% 的有機收入增長指南時，我們仍然傾向於銷量和價格的增長。

So that price contribution will moderate, still be above the normal levels, let's say, of price pre-pandemic and previous inflation. But this is where that dovetail with productivity, I think, is another way for us to fully leverage the P&L. As the supply chain continues to get better, we had 6 points of volume growth in the quarter, and we're expecting strong volumes in the second half. We're seeing better productivity in the plants.

因此，價格貢獻將適度，但仍高於正常水平，比如說大流行前的價格和之前的通貨膨脹。但我認為，這與生產力相吻合，是我們充分利用損益的另一種方式。隨著供應鏈持續改善，本季度銷量增長了 6 個百分點，預計下半年銷量將強勁。我們看到工廠的生產力提高了。

And to your second question, there's a lot of lost productivity for us to recapture over the last couple of years with these supply chain constraints. That, I think, is the next layer of opportunity for the company is where, a, well on track to deliver the $300 million of savings from transformation. And then b, we're always looking to make improvements in our business, leverage our business operating system to drive efficiencies and offset other inflation with productivity. But there's a productivity we capture here that I think is a tailwind for the company and gives us confidence that a 25% or greater organic leverage target is something we can achieve over time.

對於你的第二個問題，由於這些供應鏈的限制，我們在過去幾年中損失了很多生產力，需要重新奪回。我認為，這就是該公司的下一層機會，並且有望通過轉型節省 3 億美元。然後b，我們一直在尋求改進我們的業務，利用我們的業務操作系統來提高效率並用生產力抵消其他通貨膨脹。但我們在這裡獲得的生產力，我認為是公司的順風車，讓我們相信隨著時間的推移，我們可以實現 25% 或更高的有機槓桿目標。

Yes, that makes a lot of sense. It's great to hear, Chris. Maybe 1 quick follow-up for Dave. I'm curious, this is a much broader question around the labor markets and then kind of the tightness we've seen over the last couple of years. I'm just curious, how is that kind of impacting some of the projects actually getting completed and whether it's actually elongating the time lines of some of these projects? I know that you mentioned earlier that we're probably halfway through the ESSER funding coming through in the P&L. But I'm just curious, like what are you seeing in terms of construction projects and labor tightness today?

是的，這很有意義。很高興聽到，克里斯。也許是戴夫的 1 次快速跟進。我很好奇，這是圍繞勞動力市場的一個更廣泛的問題，也是我們在過去幾年中看到的緊張狀況。我只是很好奇，這對某些項目的實際完成有何影響，以及是否實際上延長了其中一些項目的時間線？我知道您之前提到過，我們的損益表中的 ESSER 資金可能已完成一半。但我只是很好奇，您對今天的建設項目和勞動力緊張狀況有何看法？

Yes. I'll answer the question 2 ways, Joe. One is from a -- on the commercial side. So construction projects, we've seen some delays but nothing that I would call -- I think those were -- those have improved from what we've seen in the past. I wouldn't say that's something that's -- we're seeing some projects push but not a lot. So that's not a major problem.

是的。我會用兩種方式回答這個問題，喬。一個來自商業方面。因此，建設項目，我們看到了一些延誤，但我認為這些項目都比我們過去看到的有所改善。我不會說這是——我們看到一些項目在推動，但不是很多。所以這不是一個大問題。

I think from an internal source of our direct labor, we've done a lot of work with developing programs to really -- apprenticeship programs to really grow talent and to give opportunities to people to learn new skills. We've done a lot with tuition advancement programs so that we could deliver at a grassroots level, the talent, not only for today but also for the future. We've had a lot of success with that. It's -- I was out in La Crosse, Wisconsin a couple of weeks ago, and it was just refreshing to see the apprenticeship labs we have out there and teaching individuals that were not experts in welding become experts in welding. And it's a great job. It's a great living that these individuals can have with Trane Technologies and there's great advancement. So overall, we're okay.

我認為，從我們直接勞動力的內部來源來看，我們已經做了很多工作來開發學徒計劃，以真正培養人才，並為人們提供學習新技能的機會。我們在學費預支計劃方面做了很多工作，以便我們能夠在基層提供人才，不僅是為了今天，也是為了未來。我們在這方面取得了很大的成功。幾週前，我在威斯康星州拉克羅斯，看到我們在那裡的學徒實驗室，教那些不是焊接專家的人成為焊接專家，真是令人耳目一新。這是一項很棒的工作。這些人可以通過特靈科技過上美好的生活，並取得巨大的進步。所以總的來說，我們還好。

Our next question comes from the line of Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自史蒂夫·圖薩（Steve Tusa）與摩根大通的對話。

Can you just give the split between light commercial and applied in that equipment number, sales number or bookings, either one?

您能否僅給出設備數量、銷售數量或預訂中的輕型商業和應用之間的區別？

Yes. In the Americas, our revenue was very strong in equipment. It was up over 30%. Applied was a bit stronger than unitary, but both were strong.

是的。在美洲，我們的設備收入非常強勁。漲幅超過30%。 Applied比Unity強一點，但兩者都很強。

Okay, great. And then just on resi. The guidance this year, so I think your units are down like low double so far first half maybe, something like that. It's hard to tell how much price you're getting there. You're guiding for, I guess, for the year, a high single-digit decline. Is that just the comps in the second half? And then maybe just some color on what you guys are seeing so far with the hot weather here in July.

好的，太好了。然後就在resi上。今年的指導，所以我認為上半年到目前為止，你們的單位可能下降了兩倍，類似的事情。很難說你在那裡得到的價格是多少。我猜，你預計今年將出現高個位數的下降。這只是下半場的比賽嗎？然後也許只是你們到目前為止所看到的七月炎熱天氣的一些顏色。

Yes, Steve, it's a bit of all of that. I think sequential improvement we're expecting from Q2 to Q3, the delayed start to the cooling season, that's fully in force at this point so we see that sequential improvement into the second half. The comps get a little bit easier as you go into the second half of the year. As Dave mentioned, 30% growth in Q2 a year ago. It was mid-teens growth in Q3 and then flattish in Q4.

是的，史蒂夫，這就是全部。我認為我們預計從第二季度到第三季度會出現連續改善，即冷卻季節的延遲開始，這一點在此時完全生效，因此我們看到下半年會出現連續改善。當你進入下半年時，比賽會變得容易一些。正如 Dave 提到的，去年第二季度增長了 30%。第三季度的增長為十幾歲左右，第四季度則持平。

So we just see a little bit easier comps in the second half of the year for resi than where they were in the first half of 2022. But have a lot of confidence that we think we're -- you'll recall the units down high single digits for the year. Revenue is down probably around mid-singles. And again, plus or minus, we've got that in our guide for the full year outlook.

因此，我們只是看到今年下半年的 Resi 比較比 2022 年上半年要容易一些。但是我們有信心，您會記得下面的單位年內高個位數。收入可能會下降到中等單打左右。再說一遍，無論是正數還是負數，我們都在全年展望指南中得到了這一點。

And is there any difference between the sell-in and sell-through, your independent distribution versus your captive in the quarter?

本季度的獨立分銷與自保分銷的賣出和售出之間有什麼區別嗎？

Yes, a bit, like our revenue was down in the mid-teens. Our sell-through was down in the mid-single digits. So the inventory adjustment happened in the second quarter, Steve. We just think more of it will happen in the third quarter as well.

是的，有一點，就像我們的收入下降了十幾歲一樣。我們的銷量下降了個位數。所以庫存調整髮生在第二季度，史蒂夫。我們只是認為第三季度也會發生更多這種情況。

Yes, Steve, one more thing on price. Just I think you were trying to dial in price in the first half. We're not getting the strong levels of prices you may think we're getting in the first half. It is less than 5% for the first half, and it's going to get lower in the second half for resi. That's just really a strong, very strong comp against where we led with price in '21 and '22. We're just seeing that normalize here in the business. So hopefully, that helps clarify a couple of things.

是的，史蒂夫，還有一件事是關於價格的。只是我認為你在上半年試圖調價。我們的價格水平並沒有達到您可能認為的上半年水平。上半年還不到5%，下半年會更低。與我們在 21 年和 22 年的價格領先水平相比，這確實是一個非常非常強大的對比。我們剛剛看到這種情況在行業中變得正常化。希望這有助於澄清一些事情。

Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research.

我們的下一個問題來自垂直研究的傑夫·斯普拉格（Jeff Sprague）。

Dave, I wonder if you could just give us your thoughts on the refrigerant transition in '25 for resi and whether that does, in fact, cause any sort of pre-buy or channel distortions in 2024?

Dave，我想知道您是否可以告訴我們您對 25 年 Resi 製冷劑轉型的看法，以及這實際上是否會在 2024 年導致任何形式的預購或渠道扭曲？

Yes. I mean, there is a refrigerant change that will happen in 2025 moving away from 410. Look, we're ready for it, I'll start with the engineering side of it. We're ready for it. We've been -- we've worked with next-generation refrigerants for a while so this is right up our alley and the team has done a great job preparing us. We're also preparing our manufacturing locations as we speak to be ready for it. The new refrigerant is classified as slightly flammable, so you have different procedures as to how you handle the refrigerant. But we'll be ready for it. We're not concerned about that.

是的。我的意思是，2025 年製冷劑將發生變化，不再使用 410。聽著，我們已經準備好了，我將從工程方面開始。我們已經準備好了。我們已經與下一代製冷劑合作了一段時間，所以這正是我們的拿手好戲，團隊為我們做好了出色的準備。正如我們所說，我們還正在準備我們的製造地點，以做好準備。新製冷劑被歸類為輕微易燃，因此您對如何處理製冷劑有不同的程序。但我們會做好準備。我們不關心這個。

As far as the pre-buy goes, Jeff, the product is going to be more expensive, yes, because it's a -- what they call a 2L refrigerant, slightly flammable. You will have additional sensors on the equipment so the cost will be higher. But there's also going to be a limit on the sell-through. So if you had a -- if you were trying to create a pre-buy, you'd have to sell through that inventory the way it's written right now is within 12 months or it would be stranded inventory. So I do not anticipate that we're going to see a large pre-buy at this time. We'll see how it plays out.

傑夫，就預購而言，該產品會更貴，是的，因為它是一種——他們所說的 2L 製冷劑，輕微易燃。您將在設備上安裝額外的傳感器，因此成本會更高。但銷售量也會受到限制。因此，如果您嘗試創建預購，則必須按照目前的規定在 12 個月內出售該庫存，否則庫存將陷入困境。因此，我預計此時我們不會看到大量預購。我們將看看結果如何。

Great, understand. And then it looks and feels like M&A is picking up a little bit, select kind of technology bolt-ons and the like. Is that the playbook going forward? Do you see the prospect for larger things? Are there larger things in the pipeline, whether or not they may be actionable or not?

太好了，明白了。然後看起來和感覺像是併購正在一點點回升，選擇某種技術補強之類的。這是未來的劇本嗎？您看到更大的事情的前景嗎？是否有更大的事情正在醞釀之中，無論它們是否可行？

Yes. I mean, as you could imagine, being a global HVACR player, we get to see a lot of different opportunities. We like these technology acquisitions. We've been very successful with them. We acquired MTA, great industrial process cooling technology. We'll be able to scale that predominantly in Europe. We'll be able to scale it in our channels. We also acquired Helmer in the second quarter. Think of that in the life science space. Think about it as at the storage capability, but also in the processing capability.

是的。我的意思是，正如您可以想像的那樣，作為全球 HVACR 參與者，我們可以看到很多不同的機會。我們喜歡這些技術收購。我們與他們合作非常成功。我們收購了 MTA，一項出色的工業過程冷卻技術。我們將能夠主要在歐洲擴大規模。我們將能夠在我們的渠道中擴展它。我們還在第二季度收購了 Helmer。想想生命科學領域的情況。既可以考慮存儲能力，也可以考慮處理能力。

So again, a nice acquisition that we'll be able to scale with our channels. We like this technology. We've been very good at taking these technology companies with great products and bolting them on to our operations. And with our strong channel, we've been able to create a lot of value for our shareholders.

再說一遍，這是一次很好的收購，我們將能夠通過我們的渠道進行擴展。我們喜歡這項技術。我們非常擅長將這些擁有優質產品的技術公司引入我們的運營中。憑藉我們強大的渠道，我們已經能夠為股東創造大量價值。

Our next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的奈傑爾·科 (Nigel Coe)。

So I want to go back to margins. Obviously, the improving organic incrementals. So I'm hearing better productivity at the factory. Obviously, price/cost is a nice tailwind. So I'm just curious, how do margins and backlog look generally compared to what we're converting now? Do we have better backlog margins to come through over the next year or so? And then on the investment spending, I think we had a slight back-end loading on the investment spending this year. Is there anything on the time line of investment spending we need to deliver back to internal models?

所以我想回到邊緣。顯然，有機增量不斷改善。所以我聽說工廠的生產力提高了。顯然，價格/成本是一個很好的推動力。所以我很好奇，與我們現在正在轉換的相比，利潤和積壓訂單通常看起來如何？我們在未來一年左右的時間裡是否能獲得更好的積壓利潤？然後在投資支出方面，我認為今年我們的投資支出有輕微的後端負擔。我們需要將投資支出的時間表返回到內部模型中嗎？

Nigel, it's Chris. I'll start. We've been happy with the margins in backlog. Obviously, our backlog is more focused on equipment than it is service, but we're happy with the margins in the backlog, gives us confidence on the 30%-plus leverage for the year. We're just starting to build some backlog for 2024 so we'll comment more on that as we get to guiding for 2024. But the team has just done an outstanding job for several years now, making sure that we're embedding inflation and expectations around that and making sure that we're getting price.

奈傑爾，是克里斯。我開始吧。我們對積壓的利潤感到滿意。顯然，我們的積壓訂單更多地集中在設備而不是服務上，但我們對積壓訂單的利潤率感到滿意，這讓我們對今年 30% 以上的槓桿率充滿信心。我們剛剛開始為 2024 年積壓一些訂單，因此當我們為 2024 年提供指導時，我們將對此進行更多評論。但該團隊幾年來剛剛完成了出色的工作，確保我們嵌入通貨膨脹和對此的期望並確保我們得到價格。

And it's a lot easier. As Dave reminds me all the time, it's a lot easier to get price and you've got innovative products out there and you're talking to the customer about an improved solution from what they previously have. All that is reflected in our higher organic leverage guide for the year. And we'll kind of update as we go through the end of this year getting ready for 2024.

而且這要容易得多。正如戴夫一直提醒我的那樣，獲得價格要容易得多，而且您擁有創新產品，並且您正在與客戶談論他們以前擁有的改進解決方案。所有這些都反映在我們今年更高的有機槓桿指南中。我們將在今年年底為 2024 年做好準備時進行更新。

On the investments, yes, we're still targeting, call it, 70 basis points of incremental investment. Think of this as investments in our electrification portfolio across our product lines and electrifying the portfolio, investments in the digital strategy, the connectedness back to customers, the previous question on AI. We have over 36,000 connected buildings, over 1 million pieces of connected assets. This is an area that we're continuing to invest in, and we're really pleased with that progressing investment so far this year.

在投資方面，是的，我們仍然以 70 個基點的增量投資為目標。將此視為對我們跨產品線的電氣化產品組合的投資，以及對產品組合的電氣化、對數字戰略的投資、與客戶的聯繫，以及上一個關於人工智能的問題。我們擁有超過 36,000 座互聯建築、超過 100 萬件互聯資產。這是我們繼續投資的一個領域，我們對今年迄今為止的投資進展感到非常滿意。

A third area of investments for us would be around automation and investing in our own factories. This is starting to see some early results with better productivity as well. So the pipeline is strong on the investments. We're continuing to make sure we can accelerate and where we can, and it just gives us a lot of encouragement that's going to drive results in the future.

我們的第三個投資領域是自動化和投資我們自己的工廠。這已經開始看到一些早期成果，生產力也有所提高。因此，管道的投資能力很強。我們將繼續確保我們能夠加速並儘我們所能，這給了我們很大的鼓勵，這將推動未來取得成果。

Yes. And that's all baked into our guide, Nigel. And if you look at the midpoint of our EPS guide for the year, we'll be above 20% EPS growth for the third year in a row. So I mean, I'm super proud of what the team has been able to accomplish there. And it's the flywheel of innovation, it's the flywheel around how we operate our business operating system. I always tell people it's a system of things that makes Trane Technologies a great company, and hopefully, investors see how we're executing to that system of things.

是的。這一切都已納入我們的指南中，奈傑爾。如果你看看我們今年每股收益指南的中點，我們將連續第三年實現每股收益增長 20% 以上。所以我的意思是，我對團隊在那裡取得的成就感到非常自豪。它是創新的飛輪，是我們運營業務操作系統的飛輪。我總是告訴人們，正是一個事物系統使特靈科技成為一家偉大的公司，希望投資者能夠看到我們如何執行該事物系統。

No question. So 70 basis points. I think you mentioned in 1Q that, that was a bit lighter than 70 basis points. So I just wanted to see if maybe there's anything on timing as well. But my follow-up question is maybe a bit more about peers, but the -- most of your industrial peers have gone to cash EPS. And I think you're carrying about $150 million of intangibles right now. I think it's about $0.50 per share or thereabouts. It's a chunk of change for sure. Have you considered maybe moving to cash EPS, especially as you do in these bolt-ons, which do tend to carry a lot more fair amount of intangibles? But have you considered that move? And if not, would you consider that if you were to do more deals?

沒有問題。所以70個基點。我想你在第一季度提到過，這比 70 個基點要輕一些。所以我只是想看看是否還有關於時間的事情。但我的後續問題可能更多是關於同行，但是大多數工業同行都已經轉向現金每股收益。我認為您現在擁有大約 1.5 億美元的無形資產。我認為大約是每股 0.50 美元左右。這肯定是一個巨大的改變。您是否考慮過轉向現金每股收益，尤其是像您在這些螺栓上所做的那樣，這些螺栓往往會攜帶更多的無形資產？但你考慮過這個舉動嗎？如果沒有，如果您要做更多交易，您會考慮這樣做嗎？

Nigel, I appreciate the suggestion. We'll look into it. We like the simple methodology of looking at just net earnings and how much free cash flow are we driving off of that. When I think about our conversion in the last 3 years, the average free cash flow conversion and earnings for us is 110%. And we're targeting this year equal to or greater than 100% on conversion. So we do look at that metric.

奈傑爾，我很欣賞這個建議。我們會調查一下。我們喜歡只關注淨利潤以及我們從中獲得多少自由現金流的簡單方法。當我考慮過去 3 年的轉換時，我們的平均自由現金流轉換和收益為 110%。我們今年的目標是實現等於或大於 100% 的轉化。所以我們確實關注這個指標。

When it comes to return on invested capital, we look at cash flow return on invested capital as another metric. I think it takes out the noise a bit of some of the accounting conventions that you have to manage through and ultimately, on an ex intangible basis, let's look at the cash returns of those investments. And we'll start that with an acquisition really year 1, year 2, year 3 and evaluate its accretiveness over a period of time.

當談到投資資本回報率時，我們將投資資本的現金流回報率視為另一個指標。我認為它消除了一些你必須管理的會計慣例的噪音，最終，在無形資產的基礎上，讓我們看看這些投資的現金回報。我們將從第一年、第二年、第三年的收購開始，並評估其在一段時間內的增值性。

So we like the ability to, by the third year of an acquisition, have accretive EPS growth, drive accretive cash flow return on invested capital. And I would say while very modest this year, even the acquisitions we just made this year will have a very modest impact on EPS already in year 1. So I think that's a bit of the metric, but I appreciate the insight. We'll certainly give that some thought.

因此，我們希望能夠在收購的第三年實現每股收益的增值增​​長，推動投資資本現金流回報的增值。我想說，雖然今年的影響非常有限，但即使我們今年剛剛進行的收購也會對第一年的每股收益產生非常有限的影響。所以我認為這只是一個衡量標準，但我很欣賞這種洞察力。我們當然會考慮一下。

Fair enough. Cash is king.

很公平。現金為王。

Our next question comes from the line of Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的迪恩·德雷 (Deane Dray)。

Can we put the spotlight on China? For a moment here, it was really a standout. And whereas a lot of the other industrials have struggled in terms of COVID reopening and so forth, how much of that was a catch up? Just kind of give us a perspective on what the cadence of orders are and what you're expecting in the second half?

我們可以把焦點放在中國嗎？一時之間，這裡確實是鶴立雞群。儘管許多其他行業在新冠疫情重新開放等方面舉步維艱，但其中有多少是迎頭趕上的？請讓我們了解一下訂單的節奏以及您對下半年的預期？

Yes. I mean we did have an easy comp in the second quarter in Asia Pacific, specifically in China because of COVID lockdowns. Think about, I think it's like $60 million that pushed out of the second quarter into the back half of the year. But even with that, we had very strong results in China. And if you look specifically in China, I mean, the verticals that are strong, we're strong in. So think of the high-tech vertical, semiconductors, data centers, health care, those are all -- with a direct sales force, again, we're very strong in those verticals. And the team there has just executed at a very high level. We have a very strong team in Asia Pacific and we continue to do very, very well in that region of the world.

是的。我的意思是，由於新冠疫情封鎖，我們第二季度在亞太地區的業績確實很輕鬆，特別是在中國。想一想，我想大概有 6000 萬美元從第二季度推到了下半年。但即便如此，我們在中國仍取得了非常出色的成績。如果你具體看中國，我的意思是，那些強大的垂直行業，我們也很擅長。所以想想高科技垂直行業，半導體，數據中心，醫療保健，這些都是——擁有直銷隊伍再次強調，我們在這些垂直領域非常強大。那裡的團隊剛剛以非常高的水平執行。我們在亞太地區擁有一支非常強大的團隊，並且我們將繼續在世界該地區做得非常非常好。

That's great. If we just -- data centers come up multiple times. AI has come up multiple times. We get that. And in your answer to Chris' question about the implications of AI and the whole 3x heat factor with the new chips, the legacy cooling for data centers will still be in demand. But more investment is happening on the liquid cooling side. Have you -- and maybe you teased us a bit with say you've got some other projects that you're working on. So maybe there's some liquid cooling opportunities there. But how do you see as a legacy air cooling business, how do you see the rise of liquid cooling? Is this a threat? Is this a business that you need to get into? Just share us sort of what you think the road map is?

那太棒了。如果我們——數據中心多次出現。人工智能已經多次出現。我們明白了。在您回答 Chris 關於人工智能和新芯片的整個 3 倍熱係數的影響的問題時，數據中心的傳統冷卻仍然有需求。但更多的投資正在液體冷卻方面進行。你有沒有——也許你開玩笑說你正在做一些其他項目。所以也許那裡有一些液體冷卻的機會。但是，作為傳統的空氣冷卻業務，您如何看待液體冷卻的興起？這是威脅嗎？這是您需要進入的行業嗎？請與我們分享您認為的路線圖是什麼？

Great, great question, Deane. You obviously had your homework in this space. We made an equity investment in a company called Liquid Stack at the end of the first quarter, and they specialize in emerging cooling. So -- and think about emerging cooling is you're actually putting the rack into what they call a dielectric fluid. And all that means is it doesn't conduct electricity. These are very efficient systems. So we have our scientists working with Liquid Stack scientists, and we actually have some data center customers that are involved in this as well as we really triage this opportunity.

很好，很好的問題，迪恩。顯然你在這個領域有你的功課。我們在第一季度末對一家名為 Liquid Stack 的公司進行了股權投資，他們專注於新興製冷領域。因此，考慮一下新興的冷卻技術，您實際上是將機架放入他們所謂的介電流體中。這意味著它不導電。這些都是非常高效的系統。因此，我們有我們的科學家與 Liquid Stack 科學家合作，我們實際上有一些數據中心客戶參與其中，並且我們確實對這個機會進行了分類。

Early days is -- this has a lot of promise. And we're excited about it. I think when you get into these high heat applications, this is where a new technology will be developed. And we're going to keep working it. We're not there yet but we think it has a lot of opportunities for the future.

早期階段——這有很多希望。我們對此感到興奮。我認為當你進入這些高溫應用時，這就是新技術將被開發的地方。我們將繼續努力。我們還沒有做到這一點，但我們認為未來有很多機會。

Yes, we agree.

是的，我們同意。

Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的安德魯·奧賓 (Andrew Obin)。

Just a question trying to size another opportunity. Obviously, these big megaprojects, EVs and semiconductors, what's the right way of sizing it per project as a percent of sales? I mean, I've heard a number, I think, 100,000-ton chiller per semiplant. You guys brought up and take it at Samsung plant in Texas. Is that sort of the right size of thinking per facility?

只是一個試圖確定另一個機會的問題。顯然，這些大型項目、電動汽車和半導體，確定每個項目佔銷售額百分比的正確方法是什麼？我的意思是，我聽說過一個數字，我想，每個半工廠有 10 萬噸冷水機。你們是在德克薩斯州的三星工廠長大並接受的。每個設施的思考規模是否合適？

I mean, it's a good question, Andrew. The short answer is it depends, okay? You have some fab plants that are extensions. You have other fab plants that are new. The EV battery plant could be really all over the map as far as the size that they'll be putting in. So I hate to give out a number because averages will always -- I know you're trying to size the total opportunity. I would just tell you it's large. And it's large on both the chilled water side as well as on the air handling side. So if you think about it as an applied system, this is a large opportunity. It will be a tailwind for our business into the future.

我的意思是，這是個好問題，安德魯。簡短的回答是這取決於，好嗎？你有一些工廠是擴建的。你們還有其他新的工廠。就其將要投入的規模而言，電動汽車電池工廠可能真的遍布地圖上。所以我不想給出一個數字，因為平均值總是 - 我知道你正在嘗試估計總機會。我只想告訴你它很大。冷凍水側和空氣處理側的面積都很大。因此，如果您將其視為一個應用系統，那麼這是一個很大的機會。這將成為我們未來業務的順風車。

And just maybe shifting a little bit to light commercial. Can we just talk about what has been driving the strength in light commercial? And anything that sort of concerns you about maybe channel inventory in light commercial, or just comps getting tough? Or frankly, you talked about not seeing any impact from IRA into '24, if that just trumps everything and we should just take a longer-term view. But just more color on light commercial units.

也許只是稍微轉向輕商業。我們能談談是什麼推動了輕商業的發展嗎？任何讓您擔心的事情可能是在輕商業中渠道庫存，或者只是競爭變得艱難？或者坦率地說，你談到愛爾蘭共和軍對 24 世紀不會產生任何影響，如果這比一切都重要，我們應該採取更長遠的眼光。但只是在輕型商業單位上增加色彩。

I don't think there's anything I would call out. I think there was an efficiency change. You knew about that. So certainly, there could have been some pent-up demand. It's not a product that we have a lot of inventory on. Some of it goes through our IWDs on the very light side, but not where -- that's not where the -- when we talk about our residential business, we talk about normalizing, that's not where the normalization has to occur.

我不認為有什麼值得我大聲疾呼的。我認為效率發生了變化。你知道這一點。當然，可能存在一些被壓抑的需求。這不是我們有大量庫存的產品。其中一些在非常輕鬆的方面通過了我們的 IWD，但不是在哪裡——那不是在哪裡——當我們談論我們的住宅業務時，我們談論正常化，這不是正常化必鬚髮生的地方。

So it's been strong. It's been strong for a while. And obviously, we have a very competitive portfolio there with some really neat innovations. I think I told you when we were together that we took the opportunity, when we had the efficiency change to really refresh the portfolio. Now all of our light unitary product can be offered in what we call a dual fuel option. So think of it as a heat pump that could also operate with fossil fuel based on what ambient temperatures are in a particular region at a particular time. So variable customers. So it's -- we're super excited about the opportunities there.

所以一直很強。已經強了有一段時間了。顯然，我們在那裡擁有非常有競爭力的產品組合，其中有一些非常巧妙的創新。我想我告訴過你，當我們在一起時，我們抓住了機會，當我們進行效率變革時，真正刷新了產品組合。現在，我們所有的輕型單一產品都可以提供我們所說的雙燃料選項。因此，可以將其視為熱泵，也可以根據特定時間特定區域的環境溫度使用化石燃料運行。所以客戶是多變的。所以，我們對那裡的機會感到非常興奮。

There are no further questions. I'd like to turn the call back to Zach Nagle for closing comments.

沒有其他問題了。我想將電話轉回扎克·內格爾以徵求結束意見。

Thank you. I'd like to thank everyone for joining in today's call. Thanks for your interest and time spent with Trane Technologies. We'll be at a variety of investor events in the fall, and we hope to see many of you there. We'll chat soon. Thanks.

謝謝。我要感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。感謝您對特靈科技的關注和花費的時間。秋季我們將參加各種投資者活動，希望在那裡見到你們。我們很快就會聊天。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。