Tenaris SA (TS) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q4 2021 Tenaris S.A. Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Giovanni Sardagna. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Tenaris S.A. 2021 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。 （操作員指示）我現在想將會議交給今天的發言人喬瓦尼·薩爾達尼亞 (Giovanni Sardagna)。請繼續。

Thank you, Gigi, and welcome to Tenaris 2021 Fourth Quarter and Annual Results Conference Call. Before we start, I would like to remind you that we will be discussing forward-looking information in the call, and that our actual results may vary from those expressed or implied during this call.

謝謝 Gigi，歡迎參加泰納瑞斯 2021 年第四季度和年度業績電話會議。在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，我們將在電話會議中討論前瞻性信息，我們的實際結果可能與本次電話會議中明示或暗示的結果有所不同。

With me on the call today are Paolo Rocca, our Chairman and CEO; Alicia Mondolo, our Chief Financial Officer; Guillermo Vogel, Vice Chairman and member of our Board of Directors; German Cura, Vice Chairman and member of our Board of Directors; Gabriel Podskubka, President of our Eastern Hemisphere operations; and Luca Zanotti, President of our U.S. operations.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的是我們的董事長兼首席執行官保羅·羅卡 (Paolo Rocca)； Alicia Mondolo，我們的首席財務官； Guillermo Vogel，我們的副主席兼董事會成員；德國庫拉 (German Cura)，我們的副主席兼董事會成員； Gabriel Podskubka，東半球業務總裁；以及我們美國業務總裁 Luca Zanotti。

Before passing over the call to Paolo for his opening remarks, I would like to briefly comment our quarterly results.

在致電保羅致開幕詞之前，我想簡要評論一下我們的季度業績。

During the fourth quarter of 2021, sales reached $2.1 million, up 82% compared with those of the corresponding quarter of the previous year and 17% sequentially, mainly driven by the ongoing recovery in drilling activity and prices in North America, where OCTG inventory levels at distributors have fallen below normal levels. Our EBITDA for the quarter was up 27% sequentially to $483 million, reflecting higher volumes, better pricing and a good industrial performance. Our EBITDA margin rose above 23% as better volumes and higher average selling prices more than offset the increase in the cost of sales. Average selling prices in our Tube operating segment increased 20% compared to the corresponding quarter of 2020 and 11% sequentially. During the quarter, cash flow from operation was $46 million, our net cash position at the end of the quarter declined to $700 million, following the payment of an interim dividend of $153 million in November last year, and capital expenditure of $69 million during the quarter.

2021 年第四季度，銷售額達到 210 萬美元，比上年同期增長 82%，比上一季度增長 17%，這主要是由於北美鑽井活動和價格持續復甦所推動，其中 OCTG 庫存水平經銷商的銷售額已低於正常水平。我們本季度的 EBITDA 比上一季度增長 27%，達到 4.83 億美元，反映出更高的銷量、更好的定價和良好的行業業績。我們的 EBITDA 利潤率上升至 23% 以上，因為銷量的增加和平均銷售價格的提高足以抵消銷售成本的增加。與 2020 年同期相比，我們管材業務部門的平均售價上漲了 20%，比上一季度上漲了 11%。 During the quarter, cash flow from operation was $46 million, our net cash position at the end of the quarter declined to $700 million, following the payment of an interim dividend of $153 million in November last year, and capital expenditure of $69 million during the四分之一.

The Board of Directors have decided to propose for the approval at the Annual General Shareholders' Meeting to be held at the beginning of May, the payment of an annual dividend of $0.41 per share or $0.82 per ADR, which includes the interim dividend of $0.13 per share, or $0.26 per ADR that we paid at the end of November last year. If approved, a dividend of $0.28 per share or $0.56 per ADR will be paid on May 25.

董事會決定提請5月初召開的年度股東大會批准，派發年度股息每股0.41美元或每份ADR 0.82美元，其中包括中期股息每股0.13美元。股，即我們去年 11 月底支付的每份 ADR 0.26 美元。如果獲得批准，每股股息 0.28 美元或每份 ADR 0.56 美元將於 5 月 25 日支付。

Now I will ask Paolo to say a few words before we open the call to questions.

現在，在我們開始提問之前，我請保羅說幾句話。

Thank you, Giovanni, and good morning to all of you. In the fourth quarter, we closed 2021, with a third sequential increase in sales and margin, further reinforcing the recovery in our results that we have seen through the year. Taking the year as a whole, our sales rose 27% year-on-year, while our EBITDA more than doubled, with the margin surpassing its pre-pandemic level. Our net income was additionally boosted by our participation in the results of our investment in Ternium and Usiminas, which benefited from record steel price. As a result of these annual results and our solid financial position, with a positive net cash balance of $700 million, we are proposing to restore our dividend payments for the 2021 fiscal year to their pre-pandemic level. This achievement would not have been possible without the structural measures we took in 2020 to improve our profitability over the longer term as well as the strategic positioning we have built up over the past years in North America and the rest of the world through major investment, acquisition and implementation of our Rig Direct® service model. Nor would it have been possible without extraordinary resilience and determination of our employees who bore the brunt on the impact of pandemic in their working environment and on their families over the last 2 years, while adjusting to rapid changes in industrial production, supply chain and customer requirements. It is a tribute to their professionalism that we have maintained the high standards of our safety performance over the past year, with a lost time accident frequency rate of 1 per million man-hour worked, even when adding 4,000 shop--floor employees, representing 33% of the total. The United States, and more generally in North America has been at the center of our recovery over the past year. Not only has the U.S. being at the forefront of the recovery in demand for our product, it has been at the heart of our industrial retivation. From October 2020 until the end of 2021, we added 1,200 employees in the U.S. and expect to add a further 1,000 during 2022.

謝謝你，喬瓦尼，祝大家早上好。在第四季度，我們以銷售額和利潤率連續第三次增長的方式結束了 2021 年，進一步鞏固了我們全年業績的複蘇。全年來看，我們的銷售額同比增長27%，EBITDA則增長了一倍多，利潤率超過了疫情前的水平。我們對 Ternium 和 Usiminas 的投資結果的參與也進一步提高了我們的淨利潤，這些投資受益於創紀錄的鋼材價格。鑑於這些年度業績以及我們穩健的財務狀況（淨現金餘額為 7 億美元），我們建議將 2021 財年的股息支付恢復至大流行前的水平。如果沒有我們在 2020 年為提高長期盈利能力而採取的結構性措施，以及我們過去幾年通過重大投資在北美和世界其他地區建立的戰略定位，這一成就是不可能實現的。收購併實施我們的Rig Direct® 服務模式。如果沒有我們的員工非凡的韌性和決心，在過去的兩年裡，他們在工作環境和家庭中首當其沖地承受了疫情的影響，同時適應了工業生產、供應鍊和客戶的快速變化。要求。正是對他們的專業精神的讚揚，我們在過去的一年裡一直保持著高標準的安全績效，即使增加了4,000 名車間員工，損失工時事故的發生率仍保持在每百萬工時1 起，相當於佔總數的33%。美國，以及更廣泛的北美地區，一直是我們過去一年復甦的中心。美國不僅處於我們產品需求復甦的前沿，而且一直是我們工業復興的核心。從 2020 年 10 月到 2021 年底，我們在美國增加了 1,200 名員工，並預計在 2022 年期間再增加 1,000 名員工。

Production at our Bay City mill has reached full capacity, and we have reopened many of the facilities we had to close when the pandemic struck, including the recently acquired Koppel steel shop, where we expanded the production range to supply steel to Bay City as well as the Ambridge mill.

我們的貝城鋼廠已達到滿負荷生產，我們重新開放了許多在疫情爆發時不得不關閉的設施，包括最近收購的 Koppel 鋼鐵廠，我們在那裡擴大了生產範圍，也向貝城供應鋼材如安布里奇工廠。

Now with hot rolled coils prices falling from record levels, we are also reactivating our welded pipe facilities to complement our supply of seamless pipe in specific product where welded pipe are suitable. U.S. spot market OCTG prices, as represented by the Pipe Logix index, have reached their highest level since 2008 after rising 124% since October 2020, as distributor inventory levels have swung from 10 months of consumption to 4 months of consumption. During the period, we have strengthened our Rig Direct® service model by introducing digital integration services and reducing working capital requirements. Today, 80% of our U.S. Rig Direct customers are using our Rig Direct® portal to integrate order management processes and our PipeTracer® application is being used to make digital tallies. Our sales in North America now represent close to 60% of our total sales.

現在，隨著熱軋卷價格從創紀錄的水平下降，我們也正在重新啟動我們的焊管設施，以補充我們在焊管適用的特定產品中的無縫管供應。以Pipe Logix 指數為代表的美國現貨市場油管價格自2020 年10 月以來上漲124%，已達到2008 年以來的最高水平，因為經銷商庫存水平從10 個月的消耗量轉變為4 個月的消耗量。在此期間，我們通過引入數字集成服務和降低營運資金需求，強化了 Rig Direct® 服務模式。如今，我們 80% 的美國 Rig Direct 客戶正在使用我們的 Rig Direct® 門戶來集成訂單管理流程，而我們的 PipeTracer® 應用程序則用於進行數字統計。目前，我們在北美的銷售額占我們總銷售額的近 60%。

In Canada, we are making a major investment to integrate our seamless and welded pipe production in Sault Ste. Marie, and expand the range of products we can produce domestically. The trade case raised by our welded pipe competitors against our import from Mexico has been dismissed after a final determination of no injury. The offshore market is also recovering at a different pace, and that recovery is mainly taking place in Latin America, Brazil, in Guyana and Mexico. In Brazil, we are complementing our traditional supply of large diameter welded casing to Petrobras, with seamless medium diameter casing, complete with Dopeless® connections and Rig Direct® services, as well as seamless risers. In Guyana, we were recently awarded a 10-year contract to supply the casing requirements, including large diameter connectors, Dopeless® connection and pipe management service for the largest development in the region.

在加拿大，我們正在進行重大投資，以整合我們在蘇聖瑪麗的無縫管和焊管生產。瑪麗，並擴大我們可以在國內生產的產品範圍。我們的焊管競爭對手針對我們從墨西哥進口的產品提出的貿易訴訟在最終確定無傷害後已被駁回。離岸市場也在以不同的速度復甦，復甦主要發生在拉丁美洲、巴西、圭亞那和墨西哥。在巴西，我們正在向 Petrobras 提供無縫中徑套管（配有 Dopeless® 連接和 Rig Direct® 服務）以及無縫立管，以補充我們向 Petrobras 傳統供應的大直徑焊接套管。在圭亞那，我們最近獲得了一份為期 10 年的合同，為該地區最大的開發項目提供套管需求，包括大直徑連接器、Dopeless® 連接和管道管理服務。

Onshore market in Argentina and Colombia have also recovered from the pandemic lows. This week in Argentina, the government has issued a decree authorizing a project to build a major new gas pipeline from Neuquén, in Vaca Muerta, to Buenos Aires. This should enable a further expansion of drilling activity in the Vaca Muerta shale formation and reduce the need for future LNG import. In the Middle East, the recovery is an earlier phase, and our sales during the year were affected by de-stocking of excess inventories. We have won important long-term tenders for supply to major customers in the United Arab Emirates, where we have introduced our Rig Direct® service, in Qatar where we are providing a full range of OCTG and line pipe, and in Kuwait. We expect a significant recovery in our sales to this region from the second quarter of 2022.

阿根廷和哥倫比亞的陸上市場也已從疫情低點中復蘇。本週，阿根廷政府頒布了一項法令，授權建設一條從瓦卡穆埃爾塔的內烏肯到布宜諾斯艾利斯的大型新天然氣管道項目。這將使瓦卡穆爾塔頁岩地層的鑽探活動進一步擴大，並減少未來液化天然氣進口的需求。在中東，復甦處於較早階段，我們年內的銷售受到去庫存過剩庫存的影響。我們贏得了向阿拉伯聯合酋長國和科威特主要客戶供應的重要長期招標，我們在阿聯酋推出了 Rig Direct® 服務，在卡塔爾提供全系列的油井管和管線管。我們預計從 2022 年第二季度開始，該地區的銷售額將大幅復甦。

In other markets, our sales to industrial market has also recovered. Of a particular note is the expansion of our sales of tubular components for airbags, where we are currently completing an expansion of a component facility in China. Autoliv, our main customer in this segment, recently awarded us with their 2021 best supplier award. Over the course of the year, we have confronted significant raw material and logistic cost increases, and more recently, we have seen an unprecedented surge in energy costs, which is affecting our European operations. A large part of these increases are already embedded in our fourth quarter results.

在其他市場，我們對工業市場的銷售也有所恢復。值得注意的是，我們擴大了安全氣囊管狀組件的銷售，目前我們正在中國完成組件工廠的擴建。我們在這一領域的主要客戶 Autoliv 最近向我們授予了 2021 年最佳供應商獎。在這一年裡，我們面臨著原材料和物流成本的大幅上漲，最近，我們看到能源成本前所未有的飆升，這正在影響我們的歐洲業務。這些增長的很大一部分已經體現在我們第四季度的業績中。

We are advancing on the road map we set out to reduce the carbon emissions intensity of our operations and achieve the 2030 target we set for ourselves.

我們正在推進制定的路線圖，以降低運營中的碳排放強度，實現我們為自己設定的 2030 年目標。

Yesterday, our Board approved a $190 million investment project to build a wind farm in Argentina, which will supply close to 50% of the electric energy requirement of our Siderca integrated seamless pipe facility. This is an important initiative in a country where there are limited incentive for projects of this nature.

昨天，我們的董事會批准了一項 1.9 億美元的投資項目，在阿根廷建設一座風電場，該項目將滿足我們 Siderca 集成無縫管道設施近 50% 的電能需求。對於此類性質的項目激勵有限的國家來說，這是一項重要舉措。

We have developed and tested specific material chemistries for use in hydrogen application and introduced a new brand, TheraTM. Sales of THeraTM storage vessel systems for hydrogen refueling stations are growing strongly, as are our sales for other low-carbon energy applications. These products still represent, however, only a minor proportion of our overall sales.

我們開發並測試了用於氫氣應用的特定化學材料，並推出了新品牌 TheraTM。用於加氫站的 THeraTM 儲存容器系統的銷售正在強勁增長，其他低碳能源應用的銷售也是如此。然而，這些產品仍然只占我們總銷售額的一小部分。

Over the past year, Tenaris has recovered strongly from the impact of the pandemic on energy markets, while strengthening our global leadership and supporting our customers in a challenging and fast-moving environment. Thank you, and we are prepared to receive your -- to answer your question.

在過去的一年裡，泰納瑞斯從疫情對能源市場的影響中強勁復甦，同時加強了我們的全球領導力，並在充滿挑戰和快速變化的環境中為我們的客戶提供支持。謝謝您，我們已準備好接受您的答复，以回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Ian MacPherson from Piper Sandler, your line is now open.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Ian MacPherson 線路，您的線路現已開通。

Hello, thank you for taking my question. You mentioned in the earnings release that you expect a continuing expansion of your EBITDA margin through the first half. And I know that the international -- some of your international markets are expected to accelerate from Q2 forward. But I wanted to ask for a little more detail with regard to where margins can go. And I think also, from the prior call, we were looking for a minimum, or approximate 15% revenue growth from Q4 into Q1. I wanted to get a refresh on that out. Thanks.

您好，謝謝您回答我的問題。您在財報中提到，預計上半年 EBITDA 利潤率將持續擴大。我知道，國際市場預計從第二季度開始將加速發展。但我想詢問更多關於利潤去向的細節。我還認為，根據之前的電話會議，我們希望從第四季度到第一季度的收入增長至少或大約 15%。我想重新了解一下。謝謝。

Thank you, Ian. First on the overall revenue, you are correct. We continue to estimate our revenue increase for the first quarter in the region of the mid-teens. And also, we estimate that our margin for the first Q will be slightly higher than the margin we had in the 4Q. In this environment, the company is continuing to grow.

謝謝你，伊恩。首先，關於總收入，你是對的。我們繼續估計第一季度的收入增長在十幾歲左右。此外，我們估計第一個季度的利潤率將略高於第四季度的利潤率。在這樣的環境下，公司不斷發展壯大。

I was intrigued, Paolo, by the comment regarding the development of wind power to support your Argentina operations. Is that a big ticket CapEx item? Can you talk about the expenditure as well as the time frame? And maybe just a general comment on CapEx for the company this year as well?

保羅，我對有關開發風力發電以支持您的阿根廷業務的評論很感興趣。這是一筆大額資本支出項目嗎？能談談費用和時間嗎？也許也只是對公司今年的資本支出進行一般性評論？

Well, if I understand your question, you're referring to our investment in the wind farm in Argentina.

嗯，如果我理解你的問題，你指的是我們對阿根廷風電場的投資。

Yes.

是的。

We launched this investment now. The overall investment will be in the range of $190 million. We expect to put the wind farm into operation by August 2023. So the investment will be basically distributed along this time. This investment will raise our expected investment for 2022 because we will end up, and we have in mind with this investment to be in the range of $450 million for the year, including this investment.

我們現在啟動了這項投資。總投資將在1.9億美元左右。我們預計風電場將於2023年8月投入運營。所以投資基本上會沿著這個時間分配。這項投資將提高我們 2022 年的預期投資，因為我們最終會實現這一目標，我們預計今年的投資將在 4.5 億美元範圍內，包括這項投資。

Perfect, thank you Paolo.

完美，謝謝保羅。

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Vaibhav Vaishnav from Coker Palmer, your line is now open.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自 Coker Palmer 的 Vaibhav Vaishnav 線路，您的線路現已開通。

Hi, thanks for taking my questions. Pretty impressive quarter, so kudos to that. Maybe I think like people are -- or investors are a little bit worried about are we reaching peak margins over here? And I know you guys talked about margins improving in 1Q and probably again in 2Q. Maybe if you can help think about -- we are currently around $600 a ton of EBITDA. Back in 2013, 2014, we were closer to $750 a ton. Given what the prices are doing for commodities, is there a pathway of reaching from the $600 to maybe $700, $750 per ton that we saw earlier?

您好，感謝您回答我的問題。非常令人印象深刻的季度，對此表示讚賞。也許我的想法就像人們一樣——或者投資者有點擔心我們是否會在這里達到最高利潤率？我知道你們談到第一季度的利潤率有所改善，第二季度可能會再次改善。也許您可以幫忙想想——我們目前每噸 EBITDA 約為 600 美元。早在 2013 年、2014 年，我們的價格就接近每噸 750 美元。考慮到大宗商品價格的走勢，是否存在從我們之前看到的每噸 600 美元升至 700 美元、750 美元的路徑？

Thank you Vebs. Well, as you are saying, we are anticipating a slightly higher EBITDA margin in the coming quarters, and our EBITDA per ton will also increase. I won't give a precise number, but for sure, it will increase. You know, in our sales, there will be some project and some area, in which we have still some price that are not reflecting today environment and are affected by the increasing cost of energy in some case. And on the other side, we have increase in prices in other regions. So overall, combined, we expect an increase in EBITDA per ton without giving a precise figure for this.

謝謝維布斯。嗯，正如你所說，我們預計未來幾個季度的 EBITDA 利潤率會略有提高，並且我們每噸的 EBITDA 也會增加。我不會給出具體數字，但可以肯定的是，它會增加。你知道，在我們的銷售中，會有一些項目和一些區域，其中我們仍然有一些價格沒有反映當今的環境，並且在某些情況下受到能源成本上漲的影響。另一方面，我們其他地區的價格也有所上漲。因此，總體而言，我們預計每噸 EBITDA 將會增加，但並未給出具體數字。

Got it. Got it. Completely fair. Maybe if you can talk about the welded pipe supply-demand situation in the U.S. You talked about you are increasing your capacity for the welded pipe. Maybe if you can talk about how does that supply demand dynamics looks today? And then also going forward, if the HRC scrap prices are falling, how does that impact your margins? And what's the lag?

知道了。知道了。完全公平。也許您可以談談美國焊管的供需情況。您談到您正在增加焊管的產能。也許您可以談談目前的供需動態如何？展望未來，如果熱軋卷廢鋼價格下跌，這會對您的利潤率產生什麼影響？滯後是什麼？

Well, on the first question, we are ramping up our welded pipe production because the price of the hot rolled coils went down abruptly, pretty abruptly in the last months. I personally think that considering also the pressure of cost, we are close to leveling up for the hot rolled coils, and there are signs in international markets that are showing even some rebound in price of slabs and price of hot rolled coils outside the United States. So I mean, we are close to some leveling of this. In this environment, I think there is some scope for welded production in the States within limits, because the nature of drilling today, the extensive use of seamless and heat treated demanding product in the production casing for the column is leaving a space to welded, which is probably not as extensive as it was historically in the past, so there is room. We are ramping up for the specific product, in which we feel that welded would complement our product offering, and we expect that also other producers may raise production of welded pipe. But overall, I mean, to start the facility, hiring people and so on, probably they will -- this will be a slow process.

好吧，關於第一個問題，我們正在提高焊管產量，因為熱軋卷的價格在過去幾個月突然下降，非常突然。我個人認為，考慮到成本壓力，熱軋板捲已經接近持平，國際市場有跡象表明，美國以外的板坯價格和熱軋板捲價格甚至出現了一定程度的反彈。 。所以我的意思是，我們已經接近達到某種水平了。在這種環境下，我認為美國焊接生產的空間是有限的，因為當今鑽井的性質，在塔的生產套管中廣泛使用無縫和熱處理的高要求產品，為焊接留下了空間，這可能不像過去那麼廣泛，所以還有空間。我們正在加大力度生產特定產品，我們認為焊接管將補充我們的產品供應，並且我們預計其他生產商也可能會提高焊管的產量。但總的來說，我的意思是，啟動設施、僱用人員等等，他們可能會——這將是一個緩慢的過程。

Ok, I mean it sounds like overall, if I just, you -- talked about mid-teens growth and maybe modestly higher margin sequentially. So that gets you like $550 million, about 15% higher versus Street. And it seems like the EBITDA -- you talked about EBITDA per ton still improving. So it seems like the EBITDA from 1Q should continue to modestly improve. That's my last question. Am I reading that correctly?

好吧，我的意思是，聽起來總體而言，如果我只是，你談到了青少年中期的增長，並且可能會連續適度提高利潤率。這樣一來，你就可以賺到 5.5 億美元，比華爾街高出約 15%。似乎 EBITDA——您談到每噸 EBITDA 仍在改善。因此，第一季度的 EBITDA 似乎應該繼續小幅改善。這是我的最後一個問題。我讀得正確嗎？

Sorry, but I didn't catch exactly what's your point, sorry, was on this question.

抱歉，但我沒明白你在這個問題上的意思是什麼。

All I'm saying is based on your guidance for the 1Q, EBITDA could shake out somewhere around $550 million for the first quarter. And it seems like based on what visibility you have, the EBITDA -- I'm not trying to get you to a number. I'm just trying to say, directionally, the EBITDA should improve from 1Q as we go through 2022.

我想說的是，根據你們對第一季度的指導，第一季度的 EBITDA 可能會達到 5.5 億美元左右。 EBITDA 似乎是基於你的可見度——我並不是想讓你知道一個數字。我只是想說，從方向上講，隨著 2022 年的到來，EBITDA 應該會從第一季度開始有所改善。

Yes. Basically, as you listen to my anticipation of the revenue line and on the margin, you may have an idea of where we are heading.

是的。基本上，當你聽我對收入線和利潤率的預期時，你可能會知道我們的發展方向。

Got it. Thanks, very helpful. Thank you for taking my questions.

知道了。謝謝，非常有幫助。感謝您回答我的問題。

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Connor Lynagh from Morgan Stanley, your line is now open.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Connor Lynagh，您的電話現已接通。

Yes, thanks. I wanted to follow up on something you were saying in response to one of [Vaib's] questions, which I thought was interesting. It seemed to be, you were saying that you think there's actually sort of a stickiness to the market share gains that seamless pipe has had in the U.S. Historically, the U.S. has been sort of mixed between welded and seamless. I'm curious, is that specific customer comments that are leading you to believe that? Or is that just sort of a high-level view of where production is going to be? What's driving that thought?

對了謝謝。我想跟進你在回答 [Vaib] 問題時所說的話，我認為這很有趣。您似乎是說，您認為無縫管在美國的市場份額增長實際上具有一定的粘性。從歷史上看，美國一直是焊接管和無縫管的混合體。我很好奇，是特定的客戶評論讓您相信這一點嗎？或者這只是對生產情況的一種高層看法？是什麼推動了這個想法？

Well, I think I can turn to Luca for commenting on the relative position of seamless and welded over time and what we see looking ahead.

好吧，我想我可以請盧卡評論無縫和焊接隨著時間的推移的相對地位以及我們對未來的看法。

Okay. Thank you, Paolo, good morning Connor. Look, yes, what we have seen over time is that as the laterals grow and the productivity of the rigs increase, customers, at least our customer base, is more, let's say, keen in using seamless for some application. I'm referring particularly at the production casing. Now if you consider the production casing within the lower 48 scope is a large portion of the market, we would say that in this production casing, we would say that 80% to 85% of the market is seamless to a certain extent. And so this represent a major, let's say, advancement, which, in our understanding, is linked to the application. And this is basically where we found our statement that the seamless has gained a position that is more sustainable in the long term.

好的。謝謝你，保羅，早上好，康納。是的，隨著時間的推移，我們看到的是，隨著支管的增長和鑽機生產率的提高，客戶，至少是我們的客戶群，更熱衷於在某些應用中使用無縫。我特別指的是生產外殼。現在如果你考慮到48以下範圍內的生產套管佔了很大一部分市場，我們會說在這個生產套管中，我們會說80%到85%的市場在一定程度上是無縫的。因此，這代表了一個重大的進步，根據我們的理解，它與應用程序相關。這基本上就是我們的聲明，即無縫已經獲得了從長遠來看更可持續的地位。

That's interesting. So I guess the question is sort of related, but basically, if you look at supply today, certainly, there's been a lot of news that pipe is very tight within the U.S. and certainly seamless pipe is mostly what this is referring to. Do you see potential for significant increases in imports to alleviate the pressure there? Or do you think that domestic welded mills are going to have to fill the gap?

那很有意思。所以我想這個問題有點相關，但基本上，如果你看看今天的供應，當然，有很多消息表明美國境內的管道非常緊張，當然無縫管道主要指的是無縫管道。您認為進口大幅增加是否有可能緩解那裡的壓力？或者您認為國內焊接廠必須填補這一空白？

Well, you are right that the market has been tight. If you consider that the Pipe Logix increased by around 120% in 1 year. So this is also a reflection of this. On top of this, the level of inventory went down substantially. Today, we have around 4 months of inventory on the ground, so the conditions that were basically putting pressure on the market 1 year ago now are kind of disappearing and some of inventory and also the very high price of the hot rolled coils during 2021, it was discouraging welded. Now, I think on import, there are measure of containment and the negotiation of agreements with Europe, Japan, limitation that has been established over time like the 232 are, to some extent, slowing down or, in my view, preventing an increase of import at a very fast pace. But Luca, maybe you can add on your view on import?

好吧，你說得對，市場一直很緊張。如果考慮到 Pipe Logix 在 1 年內增長了 120% 左右。所以這也是這一點的體現。除此之外，庫存水平大幅下降。今天，我們地面上有大約 4 個月的庫存，所以一年前基本上給市場帶來壓力的情況現在已經消失了，一些庫存以及 2021 年熱軋卷的價格非常高，這是令人沮喪的焊接。現在，我認為在進口方面，有一些遏制措施以及與歐洲、日本的協議談判，隨著時間的推移而建立的限制，例如232，在某種程度上正在減緩，或者在我看來，防止了進口的增加。進口速度非常快。但是盧卡，也許你可以補充一下你對導入的看法？

Yes, Paolo, thank you very much. No, I believe that you fairly summarized the situation. When you look at the imports, even if you see at the recent developments over the last years, so we don't see imports jumping up very, very fast. And when you do some math, you see -- you realize that actually, there are not many places that can increase when you take into consideration all the different trade restrictions that we have in place. At least this is as far as we can see in the medium term. Then longer term, it's always very difficult to anticipate.

是的，保羅，非常感謝你。不，我相信你已經相當概括了情況。當你看進口時，即使你看到過去幾年的最新發展，我們也看不到進口的增長非常非常快。當你做一些數學計算時，你會發現，實際上，當你考慮到我們實施的所有不同貿易限制時，沒有多少地方可以增加。至少從中期來看，這是我們所看到的。從長遠來看，總是很難預測。

Right, I appreciate that.

是的，我很欣賞這一點。

I think, Connor, this is response of this and then, you know, increase in our the ramp up in our facility is contributing to satisfying all the increase in the demand. And there will be some increases from the welded pipe also over time.

我認為，康納，這是對此的回應，然後，你知道，我們設施的增加有助於滿足所有需求的增長。隨著時間的推移，焊管也會出現一些增加。

Yes, understood. Thank you.

是的，明白了。謝謝。

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Nick Konstantakis from BNP Paribas, your line is now open.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的尼克·康斯坦塔基斯 (Nick Konstantakis) 專線，您的專線現已開通。

Hi guys, and thank you for taking my questions.

大家好，感謝您回答我的問題。

Three, if I may, please. I just wanted to ask a clarification around the antidumping case. You say it was dismissed or was it just that for Mexico? What about the other regions? And where are we? Any more color around that would be helpful.

三，如果可以的話，請說。我只是想就反傾銷案作出澄清。你說它被駁回了還是只是為了墨西哥？其他地區呢？我們在哪裡？任何更多的顏色都會有幫助。

Secondly, even with some working capital absorption, do we expect 2022 should have pretty solid cash flow generation and positive free cash. Can you just remind us your priorities around capital allocation? And in particular, how do you feel about M&A at this point in the cycle in this cycle, in particular? Thank you.

其次，即使吸收了一些營運資金，我們預計 2022 年應該會產生相當穩定的現金流和正的自由現金。您能否提醒我們您在資本配置方面的優先事項？特別是，在這個週期的這個階段，您對併購有何看法？謝謝。

Thank you. First, clarification, I mean the point on the decision by the Canadian authority to dismiss the case against import from Mexico to Canada based on finding of no injury. This is a good result. It's showing that, at this moment, there's been no injury caused by Mexican import into Canada. This is the final determination. I think it's important because also, to some extent, creating a precedent for the decision on the injury in the antidumping case in the United States, it is difficult to prove injury today in a moment in which the pipe industry in the States is having record results. This was in our argument in Canada, and I think it also will be a good argument in the case of U.S.

謝謝。首先澄清一下，我的意思是加拿大當局以沒有發現損害為由，決定駁回針對從墨西哥進口到加拿大的案件。這是一個很好的結果。這表明，目前墨西哥向加拿大進口的產品並未造成任何傷害。這是最終的決定。我認為這很重要，因為在某種程度上，也為美國反傾銷案中的損害判決開創了先例，在美國管材行業創紀錄的今天，很難證明損害。結果。這是我們在加拿大的論點，我認為這對於美國來說也將是一個很好的論點。

As far as the allocation of capital, working capital, you know, the growth in the market is pretty strong. The growth in our sales is strong, and we are supporting this increase with an increase in our working capital. The days that we have overall in our working capital are in the range of 160, 165 days looking back now. This has been due also to our model where our Rig Direct® are arriving straight to the client. When the demand increase, we're increasing our working capital. We're also increasing our trade receivables but on the long run, we expect to be able to reduce these days overall, to around in the range of 130 or something in this range. So, we think that over time, the allocation of capital to working capital, when the market will stabilize, and it will limit growth. Also, we have an ambitious target in the digitalization of our supply chain to reduce the lead time in the mill and to reduce the lead time in our chain. You have also to take into consideration in capital allocation to working capital that looking at the disruption in the supply chain, in freight, in production of some of our input, we have been conservative in having some level of high inventory in areas in which we were more exposed to delay by our supplier or to disruption in the supply chain. It's a moment in which we prefer to be on the safe side in our -- in facing the market that is growing.

就資本、營運資本的配置而言，你知道，市場的增長相當強勁。我們的銷售額增長強勁，我們通過增加營運資金來支持這種增長。現在回想起來，我們的營運資金總體天數在 160 到 165 天之間。這也是由於我們的 Rig Direct® 直接到達客戶的模式所致。當需求增加時，我們就會增加營運資金。我們也在增加我們的貿易應收賬款，但從長遠來看，我們預計能夠將這些天的總體減少到 130 左右或在這個範圍內。因此，我們認為，隨著時間的推移，當市場趨於穩定時，資本配置到營運資本上，這將限制增長。此外，我們在供應鏈數字化方面還有一個雄心勃勃的目標，以減少工廠的交貨時間和供應鏈的交貨時間。您還必須考慮到營運資金的資本分配，考慮到供應鏈、貨運、我們的一些投入的生產中的中斷，我們一直保守地在我們所在的領域保持一定程度的高庫存。我們更容易受到供應商延誤或供應鏈中斷的影響。在這個時刻，我們更願意在面對不斷增長的市場時保持安全。

On the last point on M&A, you know, as always, we are looking at our strategic position worldwide, the positioning in every region and in every segment that could contribute to the strengthening of our long-term positioning in face of all of the difficulties that we may face in the different parts of the world. So we keep open, this as an option to strengthen our strategic position in the different regions.

關於併購的最後一點，您知道，我們一如既往地關注我們在全球的戰略地位，在每個地區和每個細分市場的定位，這些定位有助於在面對所有困難時加強我們的長期定位我們可能會在世界不同的地方面對。因此，我們保持開放，這是加強我們在不同地區戰略地位的一種選擇。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Alan Spence from Jefferies, your line is now open.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Alan Spence，您的電話現已接通。

Thank you. I had a question about the wind farm, but slightly different in terms of its CO2 reduction. If I'm thinking about this the right way, the reduction works out to about 0.05 CO2 per ton of steel on your global operations basis, which would mean that by the end of '24, you've achieved roughly 2/3 of your 2030 target to reduce the intensity by 30%. Is that the right way to think about it?

謝謝。我有一個關於風電場的問題，但在二氧化碳減排方面略有不同。如果我以正確的方式思考這一點，那麼在您的全球運營基礎上，每噸鋼材的二氧化碳排放量減少約 0.05，這意味著到 24 年底，您已經實現了大約 2/3 的目標。 2030年目標是降低強度30%。這是正確的思考方式嗎？

And then if you just talk a little bit about what else you'll be doing to achieve the target? And I've got another question, I'll ask after that.

然後，如果您只是談談您還將採取哪些措施來實現目標？我還有一個問題，稍後我會問。

Well, I think this is the direction in which we are doing today. We are, we had, in 2021, intense -- specific intensity of CO2 in Scope 1, 2 and 3 of around 1.2 tons of CO2 per ton of steel. Our target for 2030 is to arrive to 0.98. Now the wind farm will support, let's say, some close to 3% reduction of our global intensity because it will contribute to a substantial reduction of CO2 emission in our Argentinian operation, but with the impact on the overall Tenaris will be in the range of 2.5% to 3% of our CO2 intensity per ton. It's a step. We are complementing this with many other steps, but this is pretty relevant one. The other steps that has been implemented has been the shift of production of large diameter pipe to a single rolling operation in Dalmine, another important saving for gas energy and CO2. And likely, when we complete the phase out of our Japanese operations that are mainly based on blast furnace, we will probably also -- we will for sure do another step. So step by step, we get closer to the target.

嗯，我想這就是我們今天做的方向。 2021 年，範圍 1、範圍 2 和範圍 3 中二氧化碳的具體強度約為每噸鋼 1.2 噸二氧化碳。我們 2030 年的目標是達到 0.98。現在，風電場將支持我們的全球強度降低近 3%，因為它將有助於大幅減少我們阿根廷業務中的二氧化碳排放量，但對整個泰納瑞斯的影響將在每噸二氧化碳強度的2.5%至3%。這是一個步驟。我們正在通過許多其他步驟來補充這一點，但這是非常相關的。已實施的其他步驟是將達爾米內大直徑管道的生產轉變為單一軋製操作，這是天然氣能源和二氧化碳的另一項重要節約。很可能，當我們完成逐步淘汰主要以高爐為基礎的日本業務時，我們也可能會——我們肯定會採取進一步的措施。就這樣，我們一步步接近目標。

Thank you. That's very helpful. My second question is about working capital. I know it's early in the year, but just with a view of a good demand outlook, any rough estimates of what you think your working capital requirements will be this year?

謝謝。這非常有幫助。我的第二個問題是關於營運資金的。我知道現在還為時過早，但考慮到良好的需求前景，您對今年的營運​​資金需求有何粗略估計？

As I mentioned, Alan, in the previous question, I mean, our aim is to arrive to a level of 130 days by the end of this year looking backwards. Today, we're having the range of 165, 170 days. This means that in the end, or in the first -- broadly in the first semester, even after having paid dividend, we expect a positive cash flow for the company, a significant positive cash flow for the company, also due to a reduction of capital allocation to working capital over time.

正如我在上一個問題中提到的，艾倫，我的意思是，回顧過去，我們的目標是在今年年底前達到 130 天的水平。今天，我們的期限是 165 天到 170 天。這意味著最終，或者說在第一個學期，即使在支付股息之後，我們預計公司將出現正現金流，顯著的正現金流，這也是由於隨著時間的推移，資本分配到營運資本。

Right, thank you.

對了，謝謝。

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Frank McGann from Bank of America, your line is now open.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Frank McGann，您的線路現已開通。

Okay. Great, thank you very much. Yes, 2 questions, if I could. Just a follow-up on the ESG question or the wind farm question. You're doing it for 50% of the electricity needs at Siderca in Argentina. I was wondering, is that just a first step? Could you go to 100%, double the size of it? I realize there might be other issues in terms of transmission capacity or other things that could affect that. But I was just wondering what your thoughts are longer term? Could you do that in other facilities as well, in other locations to improve the carbon footprint that you have? And then -- well, I have 2 other questions. One, just similarly on the hydrogen strategy. I'm just a little -- if you could provide a little bit more detailed update on what you're doing there.

好的。太好了，非常感謝。是的，如果可以的話，有兩個問題。只是 ESG 問題或風電場問題的後續。您正在滿足阿根廷 Siderca 50% 的電力需求。我想知道，這只是第一步嗎？你能達到 100%，將其大小增加一倍嗎？我意識到在傳輸容量或其他可能影響這一點的事情方面可能存在其他問題。但我只是想知道你的長期想法是什麼？您能否在其他設施、其他地點也這樣做，以改善您的碳足跡？然後——嗯，我還有另外兩個問題。一，氫戰略也類似。我只是——如果你能提供一些關於你在那裡所做的事情的更詳細的更新的話。

And then lastly, the Geneva sale, which obviously seems like it was very small, but just wondering it seems at least periodically, you're selling off some of these smaller, less core products. I'm wondering what the strategy is there? Is it just to get rid of smaller operations that are not that core? Or is ESG part of why you're reducing some of those operations?

最後，日內瓦拍賣會，顯然看起來規模很小，但只是想知道，至少定期地，你正在出售一些較小的、不太核心的產品。我想知道有什麼策略？難道只是為了擺脫不那麼核心的小型業務嗎？或者，ESG 是您減少部分運營的原因之一嗎？

Thank you, Frank. Now the first point on the farm, Argentina has a special condition. Wind farm in Argentina, we have like in this case, very high efficiency, above 55%. So it's a special -- very special situation. Argentina, the wind farm will be in the southern part of the Buenos Aires province. It's an area with sustained wind over time, is a particular condition in which we think it makes sense to do a first step. I don't think our aim in this moment will be after this to continue in Argentina to invest on projects of this size. And in the other regions, we are analyzing other project that may contribute to the reduction of our footprint, but is more difficult to identify, projects that have similar impact, I mean, large-sized impact. We are progressing and analyzing different technology from carbon capture and usage or storage, energy savings in our operation. We're working on the Scope 3, reducing our purchase of high-carbon input. Everything is compounding our road map for reducing this. This was on the first question.

謝謝你，弗蘭克。現在場上的第一點，阿根廷隊有一個特殊的條件。在阿根廷，我們有像這個例子一樣的風電場，效率非常高，超過55%。所以這是一個特殊的、非常特殊的情況。阿根廷，風電場將位於布宜諾斯艾利斯省南部。這是一個長期風力持續的地區，在這種特殊情況下，我們認為採取第一步是有意義的。我認為我們目前的目標不會是在此之後繼續在阿根廷投資這種規模的項目。在其他地區，我們正在分析其他項目，這些項目可能有助於減少我們的足跡，但更難以識別，這些項目具有類似的影響，我的意思是，大規模的影響。我們正在開發和分析不同的技術，包括碳捕獲和使用或儲存、運營中的節能等。我們正在研究範圍 3，減少高碳投入的購買。一切都在加劇我們減少這種情況的路線圖。這是第一個問題。

On second question, we are trying to streamline and concentrate on, let's say, the core of our operation, because Geneva is a very small mill, focused on a segment that is very different from our driver, and so we are trying to focus as much as we can in the core business of Tenaris, considering also the opportunity that may come from the energy transition. This will be a different story. We may get into area of product, that may enhance or use our competitive advantage for advancing in the area of hydrogen or other energy transition-related project.

關於第二個問題，我們正在努力簡化並專注於我們運營的核心，因為日內瓦是一家非常小的工廠，專注於與我們的司機非常不同的細分市場，因此我們正在努力專注於我們將盡最大努力專注於泰納瑞斯的核心業務，同時也考慮到能源轉型可能帶來的機遇。這將是一個不同的故事。我們可能會進入產品領域，這可能會增強或利用我們的競爭優勢在氫或其他能源轉型相關項目領域取得進展。

Our project for hydrogen, we are completing 1 furnace in Italy, that will be capable of being heated by hydrogen. And we have 2 pilot projects for testing the technology of carbon capture to see if we can identify technology that could be used in separating CO2 from our furnaces, and to understand if we can scale up this test, but these are more R&D projects, so that has limited scale. (inaudible) could only happen later on over time.

我們的氫氣項目正在意大利完成 1 座熔爐，該熔爐將能夠用氫氣加熱。我們有兩個試點項目來測試碳捕獲技術，看看我們是否可以找到可用於從熔爐中分離二氧化碳的技術，並了解我們是否可以擴大這一測試的規模，但這些都是更多的研發項目，所以其規模有限。 （聽不清）只能隨著時間的推移而發生。

Ok, great. Very interesting, thank you.

太好了。非常有趣，謝謝。

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Alessandro Pozzi from Mediobanca, your line is now open.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自 Mediobanca 的 Alessandro Pozzi 專線，您的專線現已開通。

Thank you for taking my questions. And the first one is on the EBITDA progression. I understood that margins are expected to marginally grow quarter after quarter. But at the same time, I think we have a pending decision in terms of duties of imports in -- from Mexico and Argentina into the U.S. And once the preliminary duties are imposed, I guess, I'm not sure whether you will be able to continue to import from Argentina and Mexico. Is that going to have an impact on margins? Or is that reflected already in the guidance that you've provided us?

感謝您回答我的問題。第一個是 EBITDA 進展。據我所知，利潤率預計將逐季小幅增長。但與此同時，我認為我們對從墨西哥和阿根廷進口到美國的關稅有待決定。一旦徵收初步關稅，我想，我不確定你是否能夠繼續從阿根廷和墨西哥進口。這會對利潤率產生影響嗎？或者這是否已經反映在您向我們提供的指導中？

As I tell you, and this was a point that we touched also in the last conference call, we really think that it's difficult to support injury in this and to go against the import from Mexico and Argentina in the present circumstances. So we are confident that the case in the end will be dismissed. Now, results, the final determination will come between September or October. It depends on the timing of the final litigation, but I mean, will be coming in the second part of 2022. For the time being, we are, first of all, planning on the scale up of our facility in the United States. The ramp-up, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, is very substantial. We are hiring people in all of the 8 facilities in the United States. So we are positioning ourselves for anyway an increase of production in the United States. And this is how we are projecting the, let's say, our position.

正如我告訴你的那樣，這也是我們在上次電話會議中觸及的一點，我們確實認為在目前情況下很難支持這種傷害並反對從墨西哥和阿根廷進口。所以我們有信心這個案子最終會被駁回。現在，結果，最終決定將在九月或十月之間做出。這取決於最終訴訟的時間，但我的意思是，最終訴訟將在 2022 年下半年進行。目前，我們首先計劃擴大我們在美國的設施規模。正如我在準備好的發言中提到的，這種增長是非常巨大的。我們正在美國的所有 8 個工廠招聘員工。因此，無論如何，我們都在為增加美國的產量做好準備。這就是我們如何預測我們的立場。

We are keeping in mind in our projection, the fact that these new facilities are extending to some extent, our supply chain and are requiring some additional working capital. This is something that you see today in our working capital. Some of this line of production requiring moving pipes from one place or the other, moving semi-finished product, and this is, at the beginning, let's say, front-loading our working capital, and this also results of our -- of this ramp-up. Over time, this, as I was saying before, will normalize.

我們在預測中牢記，這些新設施在某種程度上延伸了我們的供應鏈，並且需要一些額外的營運資金。這就是您今天在我們的營運資金中看到的東西。這條生產線中的一些需要從一個地方移動管道，移動半成品，這在一開始就提前加載了我們的營運資金，這也是我們的結果——斜坡上升。隨著時間的推移，正如我之前所說，這種情況將會正常化。

And with regards to the duties, is there already a date set for the preliminary duties on when they will be applied?

關於關稅，是否已經確定了初步關稅的實施日期？

Sorry, I didn't get you on this?

抱歉，我沒告訴你這個？

I was wondering if there is a date for the preliminary duties on the imports already set?

我想知道是否已經確定了對進口商品徵收初步關稅的日期？

Preliminary duties should be around May, depending if DOC decides to have a preliminary duty on Mexico and Argentina.

初步關稅應在 5 月左右實施，具體取決於商務部是否決定對墨西哥和阿根廷徵收初步關稅。

Okay, thank you. My second question is on costs. I believe that you mentioned that quite a lot of costs have already been embedded in the Q4. I was wondering what -- I mean, to what extent we will see an increase in cost in Q1? And probably there are some costs that are sticker like logistical cost, but maybe some other costs linked to energy prices, maybe it could be less so, if we see a normalization of gas prices. So maybe if you can quantify the impact of the higher energy prices on EBITDA, and whether, at the moment, you are buying gas in Europe on spot or using a long-term contract?

好的謝謝。我的第二個問題是關於成本。我相信你提到第四季度已經包含了相當多的成本。我想知道什麼——我的意思是，我們會看到第一季度的成本增加到什麼程度？可能有一些成本是像物流成本這樣的貼紙，但也許還有一些與能源價格相關的其他成本，如果我們看到天然氣價格正常化，情況可能會更少。那麼，也許您可​​以量化能源價格上漲對 EBITDA 的影響，以及目前您是在歐洲現貨購買天然氣還是使用長期合同？

As I mentioned in the opening remarks, a large part of the increase in cost is embedded in our cost of sales of the fourth quarter. But I mean, because of the IFRS, there is a part of this additional cost that we are paying today that will also get into our cost of sale of the first and the second Q. We are buying energy in Europe, no doubt. As you know, we have a power generation unit and we buy gas in Italy, and we buy power in Romania. We are reacting, organizing our operations in a way to try to minimize the impact, but the cost is there, no doubt, and we will have probably to face higher energy costs in Europe for a period of time. It's difficult to estimate when there could be, let's say, normalization of energy equilibrium in Europe, but for the time being, part of this is in our cost already.

正如我在開場白中提到的，成本增長的很大一部分包含在我們第四季度的銷售成本中。但我的意思是，由於《國際財務報告準則》，我們今天支付的部分額外成本也將計入我們第一和第二個問題的銷售成本。毫無疑問，我們正在歐洲購買能源。如您所知，我們有一個發電裝置，我們在意大利購買天然氣，我們在羅馬尼亞購買電力。我們正在做出反應，以盡量減少影響的方式組織我們的業務，但毫無疑問，成本是存在的，我們可能在歐洲一段時間內面臨更高的能源成本。很難估計歐洲何時能夠實現能源平衡正常化，但就目前而言，其中一部分已經包含在我們的成本中。

Okay. You're buying spot prices or you have long-term contracts with your suppliers?

好的。您購買的是現貨價格還是與供應商簽訂了長期合同？

We have a combination of long-term, short-term -- I mean, it's a mix of contract and also spot.

我們有長期和短期的組合——我的意思是，這是合同和現貨的組合。

All right, thank you very much. I'll turn it back.

好的，非常感謝。我會把它轉回來。

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Kevin Roger from Kepler Cheuvreux, your line is now open.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自 Kepler Cheuvreux 的 Kevin Roger 的線路，您的線路現已開通。

Yes, good afternoon, thank you for taking my questions. I have two actually. The first one is related to the U.S. because you mentioned the tight supply on the seamless side. If we just focus on the seamless, I understand that the utilization rate of Bay City is already at 100%. Can you give us a bit of color on how much you can add in terms of supply from Mexico and Argentina currently on the seamless at your capacity in terms of volumes to add to the country?

是的，下午好，謝謝你回答我的問題。其實我有兩個。第一個與美國有關，因為你提到了無縫鋼管方面的供應緊張。如果只關注無縫的話，據我了解，灣城的利用率已經是100%了。您能否告訴我們，目前墨西哥和阿根廷的供應量可以根據您的能力無縫增加到該國的供應量？

And the second one is related to Middle East and Africa. I was wondering if you can update us on the bidding activity currently? How do we stand compared to the pre-pandemic level in terms of volumes? And what do you see currently on the pricing side? Because on the paper, the pricing in the Middle East should, in a way, follow the Pipe Logix index, but it has not really been the case over the past months, if I well understand. So what's the situation on the pricing side now in the Middle East, please?

第二個與中東和非洲有關。我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹目前招標活動的最新情況？與大流行前的數量相比，我們的情況如何？您目前在定價方面有何看法？因為從表面上看，中東的定價在某種程度上應該遵循 Pipe Logix 指數，但如果我理解的話，過去幾個月的情況並非如此。那麼現在中東的定價情況如何？

Thank you, Kevin. Well, the first question about the, let's say, the overall mix of our sales, the share that is coming from Mexico, share that is coming from U.S. If I understand what you wanted to understand, I think we have a balanced source. But maybe Luca could tell us with the ramp-up of operations, how will this may change?

謝謝你，凱文。好吧，第一個問題是關於我們銷售的整體組合，來自墨西哥的份額，來自美國的份額。如果我明白你想了解的內容，我認為我們有一個平衡的來源。但也許盧卡可以告訴我們，隨著業務的增加，這種情況會發生什麼變化？

Yes, Paolo, good morning Kevin. Now for competitive reasons, we don't disclose all the details. However, I can tell you that once we have fully ramped up our seamless facility, which, as I said before, actually Paolo said before, Bay City is almost at full capacity, and we are strongly ramping up our Ambridge. We're going to be in the position of defending our position in seamless from the United States. I don't know if this is helpful or you have other questions on this.

是的，保羅，早上好，凱文。現在出於競爭原因，我們不透露所有細節。然而，我可以告訴你，一旦我們全面提升我們的無縫設施，正如我之前所說，實際上保羅之前說過，灣城幾乎滿負荷運轉，我們正在大力提升我們的安布里奇。我們將能夠與美國無縫​​地捍衛我們的地位。我不知道這是否有幫助，或者您對此還有其他疑問。

No, it's helpful, but I was just trying to estimate in terms of volume, how much, let's say, you can answer on the seamless side in terms of additional demand from the U.S. but also from Mexico and Argentina, what's the, let's say, maximum demand that you can answer on your side?

不，這很有幫助，但我只是想根據數量來估計，比如說，您可以無縫地回答來自美國以及墨西哥和阿根廷的額外需求，比如說，是多少，您能滿足的最大要求是？

Well, I was saying before, Kevin, we don't release this number for competitive reasons. But what I can tell you is that once the execution of our ramp-up, which is well underway in Bay City and it is coming up in Ambridge, we're going to be able to defend our position on seamless in the United States. And this is something that, frankly, we already envisioned before, and we are ramping up the -- we started our ramp-up already back in October 2020. So this is part of a process that we already initiated and undertook well before the antidumping case.

好吧，我之前說過，凱文，出於競爭原因我們不會發布這個數字。但我可以告訴你的是，一旦我們的升級計劃（在貝城順利進行，並將在安布里奇進行）執行，我們將能夠捍衛我們在美國的無縫地位。坦率地說，這是我們之前已經設想過的事情，我們正在加大力度——我們早在 2020 年 10 月就開始了。所以這是我們早在反傾銷之前就已經啟動和開展的流程的一部分案件。

Yes. Well, this is something that we started before and is part of our strategy for the United States. In the case of Canada, for instance, after the case was launched and the dumping duty was established, we continue to export material from Tamsa. And with the dismissal of the final, this money, the money paid for the duty will be reimbursed to us. There may be something also occurring -- similar occurring in the United States. I mean depending on the duty, we may decide what to do and how to organize our matrix of supply in the United States. As far as the second point is concerned, I mentioned in the remarks, the relevance of the offshore in Latin America, but I would like Gabriel to comment on your point on the investment in Africa.

是的。嗯，這是我們之前開始的事情，也是我們美國戰略的一部分。以加拿大為例，在案件啟動並確定傾銷稅後，我們繼續從塔姆薩出口材料。而且隨著決賽的解散，這筆錢，交納的義務的錢都會報銷給我們。可能還會發生一些事情——類似的事情也發生在美國。我的意思是，根據職責，我們可以決定做什麼以及如何組織我們在美國的供應矩陣。至於第二點，我在發言中提到了拉丁美洲離岸的相關性，但我想請加布里埃爾評論一下你關於非洲投資的觀點。

Yes, yes. Thank you, Paolo, good morning Kevin. I think you were asking about the activity and some color in the Middle East and some pricing dynamics as well. So in terms of activity, I would tell you that the drilling in Middle East is showing a consistent recovery. Consider that the core OPEC countries are already producing at similar levels to the end of 2019, but still the rig count remains below, about 30% below those pre-pandemic levels. So there is a clear room for activity to continue to accelerate during the year. And we believe this is going to occur as we see our major customers contracting rigs. So our sales will -- in the Middle East will remain subdued in the first quarter, but we expect, as Paolo anticipated, a relevant jump starting in the second quarter as our large backlog of contracts of the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar kick in. Saudi is also active. We have recently secured several contracts across different business segments, confirming that stronger activity is coming ahead in the Kingdom as well. Iraq has been quite active as well. We received call-offs there in OCTG, and we have been awarded pipelines as well.

是的是的。謝謝你，保羅，早上好，凱文。我認為您是在詢問中東的活動和一些顏色以及一些定價動態。因此，就活動而言，我想告訴大家，中東的鑽探正在顯示出持續的複蘇。考慮到核心 OPEC 國家的產量已達到與 2019 年底相似的水平，但鑽機數量仍低於疫情前水平約 30%。因此，今年經濟活動明顯有繼續加速的空間。我們相信，當我們看到我們的主要客戶承包鑽機時，這種情況將會發生。因此，我們在中東的銷售將在第一季度保持低迷，但正如保羅所預期的那樣，隨著我們在阿聯酋、科威特和卡塔爾的大量積壓合同開始生效，我們預計從第二季度開始將出現相關的跳躍。沙特也很活躍。我們最近在不同業務領域獲得了幾份合同，證實沙特王國也將迎來更強勁的活動。伊拉克也相當活躍。我們收到了 OCTG 的取消訂單，並且我們也獲得了管道。

So we expect that, from second quarter onwards, our revenues in the segment of Middle East and Africa will be running back to pre-pandemic levels. Talking to our customers here in the region and reviewing their plans, there is a pretty strong perception that the outlook is quite positive, that we are entering a multiyear growth cycle. So this is to give you some color and perspective on the following quarters on the region.

因此，我們預計，從第二季度開始，我們在中東和非洲地區的收入將恢復到疫情前的水平。與我們在該地區的客戶交談並審查他們的計劃，我們強烈認為前景非常樂觀，我們正在進入一個多年增長周期。因此，這是為了讓您對該地區接下來的幾個季度有一些了解和看法。

Regarding the pricing dynamics and that comparison that you were making with the U.S., I think I need to clarify that the pricing dynamics in the Eastern Hemisphere is substantially different from North America. We are facing a different competitive environment, a different business cycle. So there is no, or very limited link to the Pipe Logix index. Our main business here in the Eastern Hemisphere is associated with local content positions, high-end products and Rig Direct® services, which allow us to earn differential prices and margin. The dynamic here on our long-term contracts are following formulas -- all the formula -- all the contract with IOCs, the formulas have already been negotiated and already in place, and we're going to start to see that starting in early 2022. For the NOCs, we have formulas as well, but this process will take a bit longer. It will be later in the year, typically, there's an inertial and longer cycle with the NOCs.

關於定價動態以及您與美國進行的比較，我認為我需要澄清，東半球的定價動態與北美有很大不同。我們面臨著不同的競爭環境、不同的商業周期。因此，與 Pipe Logix 索引沒有或非常有限的鏈接。我們在東半球的主要業務與本地內容定位、高端產品和 Rig Direct® 服務相關，這使我們能夠賺取差異價格和利潤。我們的長期合同的動態遵循公式——所有公式——與國際奧委會的所有合同，這些公式已經過談判並已經就位，我們將從 2022 年初開始看到這一點對於國家奧委會來說，我們也有公式，但是這個過程會需要更長的時間。通常會在今年晚些時候，國家奧委會會有一個慣性且更長的周期。

And within our backlog also it's important to mention the large pipeline that we have, Turkey and Qatar because in this case, the prices are fixed and these average prices are below the average of OCTG as well. Regarding new offers, either for spot or long-term agreements, our new pricing has been repositioned according to the new input levels. And the market is reacting positively to this reset. We see a positive dynamic and this will start to kick in with new contracts, new business towards the year-end or even into next year.

在我們的積壓訂單中，值得一提的是我們擁有土耳其和卡塔爾等大型管道，因為在這種情況下，價格是固定的，這些平均價格也低於油井管的平均價格。關於新報價，無論是現貨還是長期協議，我們的新定價已根據新的投入水平重新定位。市場對這次重置反應積極。我們看到了積極的動態，這將隨著年底甚至明年的新合同、新業務而開始顯現。

Ok, perfect. Thank you all guys for providing color on that.

好的，完美。感謝大家為此提供的顏色。

Thank you Gabriel.

謝謝你加布里埃爾。

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Carsten Riek from Credit Suisse, your line is now open.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行 (Credit Suisse) 的卡斯滕·里克 (Carsten Riek) 專線，您的專線現已開通。

Thank you very much. A few questions left from my side. The first one is on outlook. In your guidance, you mentioned a significant improvement in volumes from Middle East and Africa. Could you narrow the guidance, especially for Middle East as we have seen in the past or rather wide range here of volumes and sales achieved? That's the first one.

非常感謝。我這邊留下了幾個問題。第一個是展望。在您的指導中，您提到中東和非洲的銷量顯著增加。您能否縮小指導範圍，特別是我們過去看到的中東地區，或者這裡實現的銷量和銷售額的範圍相當廣泛？這是第一個。

Okay. Thank you, Carsten. Again, Gabriel, could you focus a little more in the comment that we made on the outlook regarding volume in the Middle East?

好的。謝謝你，卡斯滕。加布里埃爾，您能否再關註一下我們對中東銷量前景的評論？

Yes, Paolo. So, Carsten, as I was just commenting a few moments ago, the guidance is pretty much in range first quarter in the segment of Middle East and Africa compared to the fourth quarter and a steep jump in the second quarter, going back to averages of prepandemic from there. And we believe that this will be a new step for the region going forward. Hopefully, that clarifies and give you some color of (inaudible).

是的，保羅。因此，卡斯滕，正如我剛才評論的那樣，與第四季度相比，中東和非洲地區第一季度的指導幾乎處於範圍內，第二季度大幅躍升，回到了平均水平大流行前從那裡開始。我們相信，這將是該地區向前邁出的新一步。希望這能澄清並給你一些色彩（聽不清）。

Perfect. I might have missed that. Sorry for that. The second one is more a technical question. I still see that the depreciation and the CapEx levels are wide apart. Do you expect that gap to close? That means higher CapEx going forward, apart from the aforementioned CapEx spending in ESG?

完美的。我可能錯過了。對此感到抱歉。第二個問題更多的是一個技術問題。我仍然認為折舊和資本支出水平相差很大。您預計這一差距會縮小嗎？這意味著除了前面提到的 ESG 資本支出之外，未來還會有更高的資本支出？

Thank you for this. I don't think that CapEx in normal condition should go, let's say, much higher, because this $190 million for the wind farm is a pretty large investment. In general, we are in the range of $250 million per year to support also the ramp-up in -- of our operation in the U.S. Then there are these, let's say, specific large investments, but I do not see, apart from eventually special product or special projects that may come from changes in the market, I do not see that we should change this, let's say, this level. This level should be sustainable. $250 (inaudible) will come depending on the opportunity.

這次真是萬分感謝。我不認為正常情況下的資本支出應該會更高，因為風電場的 1.9 億美元投資是相當大的投資。總的來說，我們每年提供 2.5 億美元的資金來支持我們在美國業務的擴張。然後還有這些，比如說，具體的大型投資，但我不認為，除了最終市場變化可能帶來的特殊產品或特殊項目，我不認為我們應該改變這個，比如說這個水平。這個水平應該是可持續的。 250 美元（聽不清）將視機會而定。

Okay. Perfect, thank you very much. The other question I have, in your statement, you mentioned that the investments in oil and gas are unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels. And hence, I would guess the volumes will be even less so given the inflation which we have. How do we see the competitive environment going forward? Because at the other side, we see actually new supply or idle supply coming back to the market. Could we see a more competitive environment? And if so, would you believe that the tubular players behaving more rational than in last cycles?

好的。完美，非常感謝。我的另一個問題，在你的發言中，你提到石油和天然氣的投資不太可能恢復到疫情前的水平。因此，我猜考慮到我們的通貨膨脹，數量會更少。我們如何看待未來的競爭環境？因為在另一邊，我們實際上看到新的供應或閒置供應回到市場。我們能看到一個更具競爭性的環境嗎？如果是這樣，您是否認為管狀球員的行為比上一個週期更加理性？

In my view, it's difficult to make a forecast because of the level of uncertainty that is worldwide that may challenge some of the existing assumptions, I mean, the crisis of energy in Europe, the disruption in the energy that could come from the Russian, Ukrainian conflict. Russia is supplying 17% of the world gas and 10% of world oil. There are geopolitical tension and the energy transition also is facing challenges because of the difference between expectation and what is actually happening and feasible. So I think this may change the way investors are looking and companies are looking at investments in the oil and gas. We don't know yet.

在我看來，很難做出預測，因為全球範圍內的不確定性可能會挑戰一些現有的假設，我的意思是，歐洲的能源危機，可能來自俄羅斯的能源中斷，烏克蘭衝突。俄羅斯供應世界17%的天然氣和10%的石油。地緣政治緊張，能源轉型也面臨挑戰，因為預期與實際發生和可行的情況存在差異。因此，我認為這可能會改變投資者和公司看待石油和天然氣投資的方式。我們還不知道。

But I think that during 2022, we may have a sign of some different attitude. Also, we have seen a lot of discipline by the operator in different parts of the world when the price was $80. If the price have rise of oil in the range of $95, $100, everybody will have to get back and think again. And the gas issue is also relevant. So I think that it's difficult to make solid statement of which will be the level of investment, considering also inflation, in the years to come. What we see is the short term, but the long term, it's difficult to predict today.

但我認為在2022年期間，我們可能會出現一些不同態度的跡象。此外，當價格為 80 美元時，我們還看到世界各地運營商的很多紀律。如果油價上漲到95-100美元之間，每個人都必須重新思考。天然氣問題也與此相關。因此，我認為，考慮到通貨膨脹，未來幾年的投資水平很難做出可靠的聲明。我們看到的是短期，但長期來看，今天很難預測。

Perfect. That helps already. The last question is rather on the associate income because, in 2021, you have seen quite a substantial step-up here in associate income from your participation in Ternium and Usiminas in particular. What are your assumptions for 2022, because I'm pretty sure the half billion is a bit far off given the circumstances, the Brazilian steel industry is currently in. It looks like it's a little lighter, but could you share your assumptions here for that position because it's cash relevant, of course, as well?

完美的。這已經有幫助了。最後一個問題是關於合夥人收入，因為在 2021 年，您已經看到合夥人收入有了相當大的提升，尤其是您參與 Ternium 和 Usiminas。您對 2022 年的假設是什麼，因為我很確定考慮到巴西鋼鐵行業目前的情況，5 億美元有點遙遠。看起來有點輕，但您能否在此分享您的假設位置，因為它當然也與現金相關？

Well, you are right that 2021 has been an extraordinary year. But, on the Ternium side you know, Ternium has relied the cycle of investment that is positioning the company very well, especially in front of, let's say, growth in the American market. So the results will be not the one -- I think will not be the one in 2021, but will be a very solid result for 2022.

嗯，你說得對，2021 年是不平凡的一年。但是，在 Ternium 方面，您知道，Ternium 依賴於使公司定位非常好的投資週期，特別是在美國市場的增長面前。因此，結果將不是 2021 年的結果，但我認為 2022 年將是一個非常可靠的結果。

Ok, perfect, that's fine. Thank you very much.

好的，完美，這樣就可以了。非常感謝。

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Luigi De Bellis from Equita SIM, your line is now open.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自 Equita SIM 的 Luigi De Bellis 專線，您的專線現已開通。

Yes, good morning. Two questions from me. The first one on the prices, considering the demand supply and situation in U.S. and the low level of inventories. What expectation do you have about Pipe Logix pricing trend for the next months? Also considering the strong drop of hot rolled coil? And can you remind us how much of your worldwide contracts are linked to the Pipe Logix? And the second question on the U.S. market, can you update on where do you see U.S. rig count by year-end with the current level of oil prices and CapEx announcement by the oil companies? Thank you.

是的，早上好。我有兩個問題。第一個是價格，考慮到美國的供需情況以及庫存水平較低。您對未來幾個月 Pipe Logix 的定價趨勢有何預期？還考慮到熱軋卷的強勢下跌？您能否提醒我們，您的全球合同有多少與 Pipe Logix 相關？關於美國市場的第二個問題，您能否更新一下，根據目前的油價水平和石油公司公佈的資本支出，您認為到年底美國的鑽機數量會達到多少？謝謝。

Thank you Luigi. Maybe you can -- Luca, you can comment on the perspective for the Pipe Logix that we see today and the rig count where we...?

謝謝你路易吉。也許你可以——Luca，你可以評論一下我們今天看到的 Pipe Logix 的前景以及我們...的鑽機數量？

Yes. On the Pipe Logix, HRC, supply-demand. Here, there are factors that are playing. On the one hand, the strong demand, and in our opinion, the ramp up that the industry will need to put together to face with the demand. The inventory level is extremely low. Now, in our calculation, we are likely below 4 months, and this is historically low for this market. So there is also a matter of somewhat replenishing this inventory. And this certainly will tend to support the Pipe Logix. Now it is true that the HRC going down is a threat. But as Paolo was saying, he knows this much better than myself, we see this downward trend stabilizing. So balancing these two facts in the long term is very complicated because there are many factors at play. Now when we get into our prices, please remember that our prices that are linked to the Pipe Logix in a significant way are usually suffering of a 3 months lag. So when you come to our prices, you are going to see our prices increasing even if Pipe Logix start trending down.

是的。關於管道 Logix、HRC、供需。這裡，有一些因素在發揮作用。一方面，需求強勁，我們認為，該行業需要共同努力才能應對需求。庫存水平極低。現在，根據我們的計算，我們可能會低於 4 個月，這是該市場的歷史最低水平。因此，還存在一個稍微補充庫存的問題。這肯定會支持 Pipe Logix。現在，HRC 的下降確實是一個威脅。但正如保羅所說，他比我自己更了解這一點，我們看到這種下降趨勢趨於穩定。因此，從長遠來看，平衡這兩個事實是非常複雜的，因為有很多因素在起作用。現在，當我們討論價格時，請記住，我們的價格與 Pipe Logix 密切相關，通常會有 3 個月的滯後。因此，當您查看我們的價格時，即使 Pipe Logix 開始下降，您也會看到我們的價格在上漲。

And as far as the U.S. market is concerned, I mean, after a big jump during 2021, and reading and starting what the E&P operators are using as a budget, we see increase in the activity going through 2022. Of course, we don't expect to see the same pace, but we still see a solid increase. Now when we get to our sales, we -- you need to consider that probably you're going to have a bump -- jump due to the fact that some of our customers are, let's say, consolidating some acquisitions that are not fully within their full scope of operation. And this, I'm talking about the 2022, at least, the first semester.

就美國市場而言，我的意思是，在 2021 年大幅躍升之後，閱讀並開始勘探與生產運營商使用的預算，我們看到 2022 年的活動有所增加。當然，我們不認為我們預計會看到同樣的速度，但我們仍然看到穩步增長。現在，當我們談到我們的銷售時，我們——你需要考慮到，由於我們的一些客戶正在整合一些不完全在範圍內的收購，因此可能會出現跳躍——跳躍。他們的全部經營範圍。我說的是 2022 年，至少是第一學期。

Thank you, Luca. I think this was the last question?

謝謝你，盧卡。我認為這是最後一個問題？

Yes, thanks.

對了謝謝。

Yes. So there are no other questions? I will...

是的。那麼就沒有其他問題了嗎？我會...

At this time showing no further questions.

此時沒有再提出任何疑問。

Thank you very much. So thank you, everybody, for attending the conference call, and good luck to everybody. Thank you.

非常感謝。謝謝大家參加電話會議，祝大家好運。謝謝。

Thank you

謝謝

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。