Trupanion Inc (TRUP) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Trupanion third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call.

Today's call, which is being recorded, is scheduled to last about an hour, including remarks.

I would now like to turn the call over to Gil Melchior, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you and over to you.

Good afternoon and welcome to Trupanion's third-quarter 2025 financial results conference call.

Participating on today's call are Margi Tooth, Chief Executive Officer and President; and Fawwad Qureshi, Chief Financial Officer.

For ease of reference, we've included a slide presentation to accompany today's discussion, which will be made available on our Investor Relations website, under our Quarterly Earnings tab.

Before we begin, please be advised that remarks today will contain forward-looking statements. All statements, other than statements of historical facts, are forward-looking statements. These include, but are not limited to, statements regarding our future operations, key operating metrics, opportunities and financial performance, pricing, and veterinary industry inflation.

These statements involve a high degree of known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed. A detailed discussion of these and other risks and uncertainties are included in today's earnings release, as well as the company's most recent reports, including Form 10-K, 10-Q, and 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Today's presentation contains references to non-GAAP financial measures that management uses to evaluate the company's performance, including, without limitation, cost of paying veterinarian invoices, variable expenses, fixed expenses, adjusted operating income, acquisition costs, internal rate of return, adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow. When we use the term adjusted operating income or margin, it is intended to refer to a non-GAAP operating income or margin before new pet acquisition and development expenses. Unless otherwise noted, all marginal expenses will be presented on a non-GAAP basis and excluding stock-based compensation expense and depreciation expense.

These non-GAAP measures are in addition to and not a substitute for measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with the US GAAP. Investors are encouraged to review the reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP results, which can be found in today's press release.

Lastly, I would like to remind everyone that today's conference call is also available via webcast on Trupanion's Investor Relations website. A replay will also be available on the site.

I will now hand over the call to Margi.

Thank you, Gil. Good afternoon, everyone.

Our third-quarter financial performance was strong, underscored by continued momentum across key business metrics. I'll start with the headlines, then hand over to Fawwad for a full walkthrough of our financial performance, ahead of discussing how we're expanding Trupanion's reach through new partnerships and brand initiatives that strengthen our connection to veterinarians and pet parents, alike.

Turning to our highlights, in our Subscription segment, we accelerated net pet ads for the third consecutive quarter and increased them by 45% year over year. We delivered record Subscription adjusted operating income of $39 million, an increase of 27% year over year. Subscription adjusted operating margin was 15.5%, also our highest ever. These results reflect consistent, disciplined execution over the past 24 months to deliver on our value proposition and our cost-plus solution.

Adjusted operating income is the fuel to grow the business. Pet growth in the quarter was a result of continued investment in our retention performance and increasing contribution from our gross pet ads.

Specifically related to retention, we're pleased to report continued progress. As rate flow stabilizes for the majority of our members, our efforts to make adjustments more predictable and to reinforce the importance of coverage, especially in uncertain economic times, are paying off.

Targeted communications, enhanced member support, and education around coverage value are resonating, contributing to improved member loyalty and a steady climb in trailing 12-month retention.

Retention is more than a performance indicator. It's a foundational element of long-term value creation. High retention strengthens lifetime value, which, in turn, increases our allowable pack.

As our margin continues to hold strong, this translates into high levels of adjusted operating income dollars to reinvest in growth. With that in mind, following the third consecutive quarter of double-digit investment increases, we returned to growth in gross pet additions, which were up 4% year over year. Combined with our attention gains, this translated into the highest net pet growth in seven quarters, adding over 16,000 net new pets in our Subscription segment.

These are durable gains. We expect these positive trends to continue into 2026.

As we enter the final stretch of the year with record margins, record free cash flow generation, and a strengthened balance sheet, we have the capacity to invest even more deeply. We're deploying this capital aggressively yet deliberately to ensure the Trupanion brand is seen and heard in a broader way than before.

The driving force behind our why remains: Pet parents are struggling to understand how to budget for the unexpected care of their pet. The veterinary industry is under immense strain, as they work through the challenges of access to care.

Trupanion must be visible and well understood as a standout solution capable of bridging that growing gap. We're now well poised to advance that message.

I'll now turn it over to Fawwad to walk through the financials in more detail.

Thanks, Margi. Good afternoon, everyone.

Today, I will share additional details around our third-quarter performance, as well as provide our outlook for the fourth-quarter and full-year 2025.

Total revenue for the quarter was $366.9 million, up 12% year over year. Within our Subscription business, revenue was $252.7 million, up 15% year over year. Total Subscription pets increased 5% year over year to over 1,082,000 pets as of September 30. This includes approximately 60,000 pets in Europe, a majority of which are currently underwritten through an [MGA] structure.

Average monthly retention for the trailing 12 months was 98.33%, up versus the third quarter last year, which was 98.29%. The Subscription business cost of paying veterinary invoices was $177.1 million, resulting in a value proposition of 70.1%. This compared to 71.0% in the prior year period. This improvement more than offset adverse development from prior periods of $0.3 million or approximately 10 basis points of revenue.

As a percentage of Subscription revenue, variable expenses were 8.9%, down from 9.4% a year ago. Fixed expenses as a percentage of revenue were 5.6%, in line with the prior year period.

Combined, we saw fixed and variable spending at 14.5% of revenue in Q3, an improvement from 15.0% in the prior year period.

We have continued to drive efficiencies in both fixed and variable spending, consistent with our expectations. The improvements in variable spending have given us the opportunity to reinvest, particularly in technology investments that sit within our fixed expenses.

Our Subscription business delivered adjusted operating income of $39.1 million, an increase of 27% from last year and contributed 96% of our total AOI for the quarter. Subscription adjusted operating margin was 15.5%, up from 14% in the prior year and represents approximately 150 basis points of margin expansion. This marks a new company record for both subscription AOI and subscription AOM.

Now, I'll turn to our Other Business segment, which is comprised of revenue from Other Products and Services that have a lower-margin profile than our Subscription business. Our Other Business revenue was $114.2 million for the quarter, an increase of 5% year over year. We expect growth for this segment to continue to decelerate, as we are no longer enrolling new pets in the majority of US states for our largest partner in this segment.

Adjusted operating income for this segment was $1.8 million or 1.5% of revenue. In total, adjusted operating income was $40.9 million in Q3, up 25% from Q3 last year.

We deployed $20.4 million of this AOI to acquire approximately 68,100 new subscription pets. Excluding the pets that are underwritten through an MGA structure, this translated into an average pet acquisition cost of $290 per pet in the quarter, up from $243 in the prior year period.

We invested $1.2 million in the quarter in development costs. Stock-based compensation expense was $9.3 million.

As a result, net income from the quarter improved to $5.9 million, or $0.14 per basic and $0.13 per diluted share, as compared to a net income of $1.4 million or $0.03 per basic and diluted share in the prior year period.

In terms of cash flow, operating cash flow was $29.2 million in the quarter compared to $15.3 million in the prior year period. Capital expenditures totaled $5.3 million, up from $1.9 million in Q3 of last year. As a result, free cash flow was $23.9 million, up from $13.4 million last year. Over the last four quarters, free cash flow reached $71.9 million. We ended the quarter with $348.5 million in cash and short-term investments.

We spoke at our recent Investor Day about the work over the last two years to strengthen our balance sheet and build the financial foundation to power our future growth. Strong free cash flow generation; monetizing our capital surplus, including receiving the first extraordinary dividend in the company's history; and driving additional efficiencies, have allowed us to invest in growth, as well as make a $15 million early principal payment towards our debt in the second quarter.

We are excited, today, to announce the next step in further strengthening our financial position and lowering our cost of capital. Subsequent to quarter end, we refinanced our outstanding term loan through a new $120 million credit facility with PNC Bank, one of the largest diversified financial services institutions in the United States. This new three-year facility provides us greater financial flexibility, further reduces interest expense, and gives us greater assurance as we navigate the coming years.

I would like to take this opportunity to thank everyone on our team involved in developing this partnership and for helping us achieve this result.

Now, I'll turn to our outlook. For the full year of 2025, we are updating our guidance to account for Q3 performance.

We now expect total revenue in the range of $1.433 billion to $1.439 billion. We are narrowing the range for Subscription revenue, which is now expected to be between $986 million and $989 million, representing approximately 15% year-over-year growth at the midpoint. We now expect total adjusted operating income to be in the range of $148 million to $151 million. We're raising the low end of our outlook while maintaining the high end, resulting in a new midpoint that represents 31% year-over-year growth.

For the fourth quarter of 2025, total revenue is expected to be in the range of $371 million to $377 million. Subscription revenue is expected to be in the range of $258 million to $261 million, representing approximately 14% year-over-year growth at the midpoint. Total adjusted operating income is expected to be in the range of $41 million to $44 million. This represents approximately 19% growth year over year at the midpoint.

As a reminder: Our revenue projections are subject to conversion rate movements, predominantly between the US and Canadian currencies. For our fourth-quarter and full-year guidance, we used a 72% conversion rate in our projections.

Let me now pass it back to Margi.

Thank you, Fawwad.

The results this quarter are strong. They reflect solid execution and a growing recognition for a solution to enable greater access to veterinary care. By the end of this year, we will have grown adjusted operating income at a five-year compounded annual growth rate of 21%, generating over $500 million of adjusted operating income to fund high-return pet acquisition.

We have and will continue to remain disciplined, focusing on enrolling pets priced to a margin profile and educating members to improve retention activity. This focus is most clearly evident with our AOI per pet growing at a cumulative 37% over the past five years.

With our pricing now tracking alongside the rate of veterinary inflation, our position is strong, which, in turn, affords us the opportunity to continue to invest in ways that educate pet parents directly and to tell our story and share our solution more boldly than before.

Trupanion is uniquely positioned to address the challenges of access to care by covering the veterinary invoices directly and instantly, which allows veterinarians to focus on medicine and empowers pet parents to seek timely and appropriate treatment when it matters most.

Partnering with the animal health sector will always be at the heart of our strategy. That foundation, which we've been cultivating for 25 years, now provides the opportunity to expand the presence of the Trupanion brand to raise awareness and connect with pet parents earlier in their journey before they ever set foot in a veterinary hospital.

We plan to accomplish this through intentional development of partnerships and complementary channels.

Earlier in the quarter, we announced our first-of-its-kind collaboration with the Seattle Reign FC, a mission-based and deeply aligned partner, now possible with our greater investment flexibility. This partnership exemplifies a new chapter in our brand development, broadening our reach and engaging with pet parents with a shared connection of pets and community.

Most recently, earlier today, we were very pleased to announce our new partnership with BMO Insurance, part of the BMO Financial Group, one of Canada's largest banks. It's a great example of how we're extending our leadership in Canada by broadening access to our solution through trusted complementary partners.

With right-size margins, strong retention, and greater investment flexibility, we're excited to further nurture and strengthen our veterinary focus, while adding more creative ways to broaden our reach and engage pet parents through authentic partnerships that align with our mission and ambition.

With that, we'll open it up for questions.

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session.

Brandon Vazquez, William Blair.

Hey, everyone. Thanks for taking the question. Congrats on a nice quarter here. I

I think, first, I want to start with the high-level picture. Look, it feels like after a couple of years of trying to stabilize the business and return some of the operating margins, things like that, this might be the first quarter where there's a little bit of an inflection, right? You have some of the gross ads, things like that, returning back to year-over-year growth.

Talk to us a little bit, just high level, again, like, as we go into next year, what does this business look like in terms of commercial strategy? When you go maybe from defense to offense, what are some of the things that we should expect from you guys that might start to accelerate growth even further?

Yeah. Thank you, Brandon. We're very pleased with the quarter and the performance.

Third consecutive quarter, as you mentioned, of net pet growth. For us, seeing that 16,000 pets coming in at 45% year-over-year growth is something that we're very proud of; in combination of the strategy which, first and foremost, over the last nine months, has been focused on level setting our margins, getting our investment in retention, to really help our members understand what that value proposition looks like. And then, finally, we're-accelerating pet growth and we're at the tail end of that strategy for this year. I'm pleased to have seen that growth that ads come up to, the 4% year over year.

It is very much momentum we expect. We're being a lot more aggressive with our investments. We're in an incredibly strong financial position. We have record levels of margin and free cash flow, while honoring our value proposition for our members. So expect the same.

We've got that momentum starting to come. We expect to continue to be aggressive. We're in a very strong position to do so.

As you said quite rightly, we're moving into offense position, which is where this company has always operated. In a heavily underpenetrated market, we'll continue with our strategy of helping pet parents to budget for the unexpected cost of care, which is a greater need today than it ever has been.

We're perfectly positioned to leverage both what we have today in the market and also, taking those learnings from the last five years in our strategic plan to aggressively go forward and support more pet parents in the future.

Okay. Great. Maybe, follow-up for you.

My follow-up: As we start to just clean up our models for 2026, I appreciate we'll probably get a hard number on a guide for '26 on the next quarter call, maybe some of the key -- like, walk us through some of the key puts-and-takes that we should be keeping in mind? I think one that we talk about often that will help us fine tune our models here is what level of growth should we be expecting from price versus volume in the sense of ARPU versus gross ads.

Any commentary you want to give us on '26 for the Street models to be aligned would be great.

Thank you, guys.

Yeah. I think I can say a few things.

As you mentioned, when we get to year end, we'll obviously give the full-year guidance. We're still very much focused on Q4.

I think some of the things we're thinking about, just thematically, going into next year, we do expect investment to increase, as Margi said. Really happy about this overall financial position. We're in the $20.4 million we spent. Pet, this quarter, was the highest we've ever spent. And so it gives us some good momentum as we exit this year and start thinking about next year.

I think in terms of contribution to revenue, as you mentioned, this year has really been more pricing-driven. Over time, we would like to have pets continue to contribute at a higher and higher level. So I think from a contribution standpoint, we'd like to see pet count contribute more and pricing contribute less.

And then, from margin standpoint, we're very pleased with the progress on margin. As Margi mentioned, it's been a journey over the last two years. Our overall margin expectations, our goals that we set, I think they are largely going to be the same, given the first- and second-half seasonality, as we go into next year.

Those are the broad strokes of what we're thinking about at this point.

Katie Sakys, Autonomous Research.

Hi. Thank you. Good evening.

My first question is on some of the growth dynamics that you guys saw this quarter. My math might be a little off here. It took me a while to get the slides up. But I was hoping you could break down the growth dynamics you saw amongst the European Subscription pack cohort versus those in the US/North America; and whether or not the growth rates that you saw this quarter are the levels of growth you think you can deliver upon going into the new year.

Yeah. Thank you for the question, Katie.

Specifically, when we think about our focus, I would say that the last -- we've really upped the increase in acquisition investment the last three quarters.

We've been focusing heavily on the core (inaudible) Subscription business so the majority of our investment has been going into that business now we've right-sized its margins and focusing on retention.

The other products -- specifically, as you called out, the European -- have very limited investment, right now. We're really looking at building those businesses and helping to get them stabilized before we reinvest heavily. I expect, over the next several years, you, naturally, we anticipate there's a lot of opportunity in the European market where that investment will increase.

The wonderful thing now about our margins being where they are is that we have that free cash flow and the opportunity to invest the adjusted operating income dollars that we didn't have previously.

I'm so excited to be able to take those numbers up and invest and expect those lines of businesses to contribute more meaningfully in the future.

Awesome. And then, maybe it's shifting to the new opportunity with BMO Insurance in Canada, can you clarify which Trupanion products will be offered via that partnership? How much, realistically, you think that can contribute to the pet base next year?

Yeah. We're pretty excited about this partnership; to announce it today. It's fresh off the press so it's exciting for us because it really is representative of our position within the Canadian market. We are the market leader by some way. It's where we were established and founded. Partnering with a brand as established and as significant as BMO, for us, is really exciting.

The core Trupanion products will be offered through that channel so it's the same product that we have across most of our business and the majority of our growth.

For us, it, as you mentioned, it takes a long time for products and partners to come to fruition. It's a lot of hard work. We align with brands that we believe share the ethos of Trupanion.

BMO is definitely one of those. We wouldn't expect it to contribute meaningfully in the in the short to midterm. These things do take time to build.

What we're particularly excited about, though, is having a brand like BMO, standing proud next to them, and really helping to bring our brand into more households across Canada.

Got it. Thank you for the color.

Thank you.

Wilma Burdis, Raymond James.

Hey. Good evening. Thanks for taking my question.

How are you thinking about pricing going to 2026? Are we still on track for the 15% inflation? I know you guys have been talking about that most of this year into January. Inflation seems to be accelerating a bit in the broader market. So just curious to hear what you're seeing there. Thanks.

Yeah. Thanks for the question.

I can certainly comment on inflation that we saw in the quarter. It was approximately in line with what we saw in Q2 so there was a little bit of reduction in the US, a little bit of inflation in Canada but, on balance, it was pretty much flat.

As we talked about in the Q2 call, we saw it coming down, about 1 point. From that point, it's relatively stable.

I think it's too early at this point to try and predict what next year will look like.

Yeah. I would add, just in terms of pressures within animal health, Wilma, as well. Obviously, we're a cost-plus model so the cost of goods in the marketplace are really what's going to dictate that.

I think, as we go into next year, we certainly wouldn't anticipate pricing getting back to levels that we saw four or five years ago. It's still a heightened inflation.

To Fawwad''s point, we will monitor that very closely and make sure that we're in a position to continue to offer the same value proposition that we've always been targeting.

Thank you. And then, could you give a little color on what you're seeing with your customers? The sales appear to be very high. But, on the one hand, we're hearing about some pockets of pressure on consumers; and, on the other hand, we also understand that the protection can be very attractive when the costs are rising.

So how do you think the current environment impacts your sales, going forward? Thanks.

Yeah. We're really pleased with the quarter that we've just posted. I think, that said, there's s a consolidated strategy over a number of quarters to really get to the point where we can start pushing into new markets and to reach new pet parents. That's reflected in the growth (inaudible) this quarter.

You're right. There is an increasing pressure on consumers. Naturally, an insurance product is one that, if you get it right, you have to sell it. People have to understand the need behind it. I think we have historically proven that we do a good job of that, through our routes-to-market through the vet channel, through breeders, through shelters, at a grassroots level, so pet parents understand how much it's going to cost to make sure they can take care of their pet.

It's our job to ensure that we continue to articulate that value proposition. I think the teams are doing a good job. The more investment we put into the funnel, the more opportunity we have to test and learn.

We're excited to keep doing that. There is absolutely a need for Trupanion today. We can see that with the number of leads and the number of pets we've enrolled and maintained. We think our role is much bigger, still, to play in the future.

So happy that we're in a position to do that.

John Barnidge, Piper.

Thank you for the opportunity. Good afternoon.

Can you talk about the interest rate savings and any one-time items in advance of ending the old credit facility and whether we should be waiting for 1Q '26 to see all the savings? Thank you.

Yeah. Thanks for the question.

Yeah. Obviously, we're very pleased with the PNC deal that we announced today. It not only puts us in a better position from a cost of capital standpoint but just the opportunity to work with a bank -- PNC being one of the largest financial institutions -- opens up a variety of services.

They're going to be working with us on, for instance, treasury management. So there's benefits, outside of just the interest rate.

The interest rate, by itself -- yeah, our current debt is SOFR +5.15. The new debt will be SOFR + 2.75. So it's about a 240 basis points benefit in terms of interest savings.

Our expectation is that at the end of this, we'll have approximately $115 million of debt. It'd be interest savings against that. We're in the range of $8 million to $9 million.

Thanks for that. And then, can you talk about the potential additions you're thinking through with the important fourth quarter for when open enrollment occurs through the group channel? Thank you.

Yeah. Thanks, John.

Specifically, speaking to Aflac, we don't anticipate seeing anything meaningful in the quarter as a contribution from Aflac. It's still a very nascent channel for us. It's one that we have a lot of learnings from. Aflac continues, as always, to be a great partner for us.

I would say we're learning that the product that we have in the market is perhaps not quite what we need and so we're looking at refining that over time. We still have a lot of expectation and belief in this channel. But I wouldn't anticipate a lot for this quarter coming up, or Q1.

Thanks for the answers.

Thank you.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session.

I would now like to hand over the conference to Margi Tooth for closing comments.

Thank you. Thanks, everyone, for your questions and participation today in our call.

We're incredibly proud of the financial discipline that's brought us to where we are this quarter and even more excited about what it enables.

We'll have continued investment in high-quality growth in our new partners and our existing partners and in a broader veterinary ecosystem.

We will stay disciplined in our investment, while continuing to build our brand and expand awareness to help even more pet parents get the care they deserve.

Thank you very much for your time this afternoon.

Thank you. The conference is now concluded.

Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.