TransUnion (TRU) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and welcome to the TransUnion's third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

    大家好,歡迎參加 TransUnion 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。(操作說明)請注意,本次活動正在錄影。

  • I would now like to turn the conference over to Greg Bardi, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在我將把會議交給投資者關係副總裁格雷格·巴迪。請繼續。

  • Gregory Bardi - Vice President of Investor Relations

    Gregory Bardi - Vice President of Investor Relations

  • Good morning, and thank you for attending today. Joining me on the call are Chris Cartwright, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Todd Cello, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We posted our earnings release and slides to accompany this call on the TransUnion Investor Relations website this morning, and this can also be found in the current report on Form 8-K that we filed this morning.

    早安,感謝各位今天的光臨。與我一同參加電話會議的有總裁兼執行長克里斯·卡特賴特,以及執行副總裁兼財務長托德·切洛。今天早上,我們在 TransUnion 投資者關係網站上發布了收益報告和本次電話會議的幻燈片,您也可以在我們今天早上提交的 8-K 表格的最新報告中找到這些內容。

  • Our earnings release and the accompanying slides include various schedules, which contain more detailed information about revenue, operating expenses and other items as well as certain non-GAAP disclosures and financial measures along with the corresponding reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures. Today's call will be recorded and a replay will be available on our website.

    我們的獲利報告和隨附的幻燈片包含各種附表,其中包含有關收入、營運費用和其他項目的更詳細信息,以及某些非GAAP披露和財務指標,以及這些非GAAP財務指標與其最直接可比的GAAP指標的相應調節表。今天的電話會議將被錄音,錄音回放將在我們的網站上提供。

  • We will also be making statements during the call that are forward-looking. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements because of factors discussed in today's earnings release in the comments made during this conference call and in our most recent Form 10-K, Forms 10-Q and other reports and filings with the SEC. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statement.

    我們還將在電話會議中發表一些前瞻性聲明。這些陳述基於當前的預期和假設,並存在風險和不確定性。由於今天發布的盈利報告、本次電話會議中的評論以及我們最新的 10-K 表格、10-Q 表格和其他向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告和文件中討論的因素,實際結果可能與前瞻性聲明中描述的結果存在重大差異。我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

  • With that, let me turn it over to Chris.

    接下來,我將把麥克風交給克里斯。

  • Christopher Cartwright - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Christopher Cartwright - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Greg. During the third quarter, TransUnion again exceeded all key guidance metrics and achieved its seventh consecutive quarter of high single-digit organic revenue growth. These results demonstrate the growing momentum of our innovation-led strategy. I want to outline four key highlights from the quarter.

    謝謝你,格雷格。第三季度,TransUnion 再次超越了所有關鍵預期指標,並連續第七個季度實現了高個位數的有機收入成長。這些結果表明,我們以創新為主導的策略正在取得越來越好的發展勢頭。我想重點介紹本季的四個主要亮點。

  • First, we delivered market-leading and diversified growth with revenue increasing by 11% on an organic constant currency basis, excluding the significant breach remediation win from last year, which represents our strongest underlying performance since 2021.

    首先,我們實現了市場領先且多元化的成長,以有機固定匯率計算,收入增長了 11%(不包括去年贏得的重大違規補救項目),這代表了我們自 2021 年以來最強勁的基礎業績。

  • Second, we are raising our 2025 guidance across all metrics, reflecting our strong third quarter performance stable lending trends in the US and new business wins. US lending conditions continue to be solid, characterized by modest GDP growth, still strong employment, stable delinquencies, lower interest rates and manageable inflation, and this is despite emerging concerns regarding a slowing labor market and stress first for lower-income consumers.

    其次,我們提高了 2025 年所有指標的預期,這反映了我們第三季強勁的業績、美國穩定的貸款趨勢以及新業務的贏得。儘管人們對勞動市場放緩和低收入消費者首先面臨壓力感到擔憂,但美國的信貸環境依然穩健,其特點是GDP溫和成長、就業依然強勁、違約率穩定、利率較低和通貨膨脹可控。

  • Third, we advanced our technology modernization with successful migration of our first US credit customers. OneTru is accelerating our pace of innovation in credit and noncredit products. We remain on track to achieve our remaining structural cost savings in 2026 as anticipated.

    第三,我們透過成功遷移首批美國信貸客戶,推進了技術現代化進程。OneTru正在加快我們在信貸和非信貸產品領域的創新步伐。我們仍有望在 2026 年按預期實現剩餘的結構性成本節約目標。

  • And fourth, we accelerated our share repurchases to take advantage of highly attractive valuation levels. During the third quarter, in October, we repurchased $160 million in shares, bringing the year-to-date total to $200 million.

    第四,我們加快了股票回購速度,以利用極具吸引力的估值水準。第三季(10 月),我們回購了價值 1.6 億美元的股票,使今年迄今的回購總額達到 2 億美元。

  • Additionally, we increased our share repurchase authorization to $1 billion underscoring our commitment to delivering value to shareholders. Further details on each of these highlights are discussed below. Now our third quarter results demonstrate effective execution against our growth playbook, with strength evident across our solutions, our verticals and our geographies. US markets delivered 13% organic constant currency revenue growth when excluding last year's breach win.

    此外,我們將股票回購授權額度提高至 10 億美元,以彰顯我們致力於為股東創造價值的承諾。以下將詳細介紹這些亮點。現在,我們第三季的業績表明,我們的成長策略得到了有效執行,我們的解決方案、垂直產業和地理都展現出了強勁的實力。不計去年的暴漲暴跌,美國市場實現了 13% 的有機固定匯率收入成長。

  • Financial Services grew 19% or 12% excluding mortgage, reflecting continued broad-based outperformance in a stable and modestly growing market. Emerging Verticals accelerated to 7.5%, their strongest growth since 2022. Our noncredit solutions, which account for over half of US markets revenue grew 8%. These results reflect the emerging commercial benefits across our vertical markets from our accelerating innovation in credit marketing, fraud and communications.

    金融服務業成長了 19%,若不計抵押貸款,則成長了 12%,這反映出在一個穩定且溫和成長的市場中,金融服務業持續表現出色。新興垂直產業成長加速至 7.5%,創下 2022 年以來的最高成長速度。我們的非信貸解決方案占美國市場收入的一半以上,成長了 8%。這些結果反映了我們在信貸行銷、反詐騙和通訊領域加速創新所帶來的各個垂直市場的新商業利益。

  • Now international revenue grew by 6% on an organic constant currency basis. Canada, the UK and Africa all exceeded expectations and achieved double-digit growth despite muted economic conditions in each market. India grew 5%, slightly below our outlook as new tariffs impacted US export-dependent small- and medium-sized businesses, which tempered the pace of lending recovery.

    現在,國際收入以固定匯率計算成長了6%。儘管加拿大、英國和非洲各市場的經濟狀況低迷,但它們都超出了預期,實現了兩位數的成長。印度經濟成長 5%,略低於我們的預期,因為新的關稅影響了依賴美國出口的中小型企業,減緩了信貸復甦的步伐。

  • We now expect high single-digit revenue growth in India in the fourth quarter. On a positive note, we experienced some volume improvement in the first days of the festival season in late September and early October. This is supported by further pro growth actions from the RBI and the Indian government. Todd will provide a comprehensive review of our results in just a minute.

    我們現在預計印度市場第四季營收將實現高個位數成長。令人欣慰的是,在九月下旬和十月初的節慶季初期,我們的銷售量有所提升。印度儲備銀行和印度政府也採取了進一步的促進經濟成長的措施,這為上述目標提供了支持。Todd 將在稍後對我們的結果進行全面回顧。

  • Now looking ahead, we're raising our 2025 outlook based on our strong third quarter results, stable US lending trends and our continued commercial momentum. Our guidance raise maintains a prudently conservative approach, which offers likely upside if current lending conditions continue. Now at the high end of guidance, we now expect 8% organic constant currency revenue growth or 9% excluding last year's large breach win.

    展望未來,基於我們強勁的第三季業績、穩定的美國貸款趨勢以及持續的商業發展勢頭,我們提高了 2025 年的業績預期。我們上調業績指引,維持了審慎保守的態度,如果目前的貸款環境持續下去,則可能帶來上漲空間。現在,我們預計有機收入將實現 8% 的固定匯率成長,如果排除去年贏得的大型違規交易,則成長幅度將達到 9%。

  • 9% adjusted EBITDA growth and 9% adjusted diluted earnings per share growth. Excluding the 400 basis point impact of a higher tax rate in 2025, our results show another year of double-digit EPS growth, supported by our consistent execution and the strength of our diversified and resilient portfolio.

    調整後 EBITDA 成長 9%,調整後稀釋每股盈餘成長 9%。撇開 2025 年稅率提高帶來的 400 個基點的影響不談,我們的業績顯示,在持續的執行力和多元化、穩健的投資組合的支撐下,每股收益連續第二年實現兩位數增長。

  • Now we continue to advance our technology modernization to drive cost savings, accelerate innovation and enable sustainable growth. In the third quarter, we completed the migration of our first US credit customers key milestone. We're enabling these clients with faster processing speeds and seamless access to our newest innovations, including TruIQ analytics. Additionally, we expanded our dual run program for key customers.

    現在,我們將繼續推動技術現代化,以降低成本、加速創新並實現永續成長。第三季度,我們完成了第一批美國信貸客戶的遷移,這是一個重要的里程碑。我們正在為這些客戶提供更快的處理速度和無縫存取我們最新創新成果的機會,包括 TruIQ 分析。此外,我們也擴大了針對重點客戶的雙機運轉計畫。

  • We're partnering closely with our customers to ensure smooth transitions ahead of a full migration. And by year-end, we expect OneTru to power a critical mass of our run rate US Credit volume and revenue, and we plan to complete all US migrations by mid-2026.

    我們正與客戶緊密合作,以確保在全面遷移之前順利過渡。到年底,我們預計 OneTru 將為我們美國信貸業務量和收入帶來顯著增長,我們計劃在 2026 年年中完成所有美國業務的遷移。

  • Over the year, we identified incremental third-party spend and other internal savings to deliver our targeted savings for 2026 and allow additional time to complete US credit migrations. In '26, we expect to deliver $35 million of operating expense savings and reduced capital expenditures to 6% of revenue. We will leverage these savings to drive margin expansion in '26 and fund growth investments. We anticipate no technology-related onetime expense add-backs in 2026.

    在過去一年中,我們確定了可增加的第三方支出和其他內部節省,以實現我們 2026 年的目標節省,並有更多時間完成美國信用遷移。2026 年,我們預計可節省 3,500 萬美元的營運費用,並將資本支出減少到收入的 6%。我們將利用這些節省下來的資金,在 2026 年推動利潤率擴張,並為成長投資提供資金。我們預計 2026 年不會有與技術相關的一次性費用增加。

  • Next year, our technology modernization will shift to our international markets. We've launched TrueIQ analytic platform in Canada, the UK and India in 2025. Next year, we plan to export other OneTru enabled solutions to these markets and start modernizing the core credit capabilities across Canada, the UK and the Philippines.

    明年,我們的技術現代化將轉向國際市場。我們已於 2025 年在加拿大、英國和印度推出了 TrueIQ 分析平台。明年,我們計劃向這些市場出口其他支援 OneTru 的解決方案,並開始對加拿大、英國和菲律賓的核心信用功能進行現代化改造。

  • OneTru is our definition platform and we expect to fund these migrations through normal operations, driving additional savings in 2027 and beyond while diffusing our innovative solutions globally. Now our technology modernization is enabling commercial success across our solutions. We see new products rapidly gaining market traction, and we've built a robust innovation pipeline to fuel our next phase of growth. FactorTrust has delivered exceptional results. We secured multiple new wins in the quarter and continue to expand the pipeline.

    OneTru 是我們的定義平台,我們預計透過正常營運為這些遷移提供資金,從而在 2027 年及以後節省更多成本,同時在全球推廣我們的創新解決方案。如今,我們的技術現代化正在幫助我們的解決方案取得商業成功。我們看到新產品迅速獲得市場認可,並且我們已經建立了強大的創新管道,以推動我們下一階段的成長。FactorTrust取得了卓越的表現。本季我們斬獲多項新訂單,並持續拓展業務管道。

  • FactorTrust has been a key driver of outperformance in our consumer lending business throughout the year. and we anticipate roughly 20% growth from FactorTrust in 2025. TruIQ data enrichment launched on Snowflake with the first few live customers. The Snowflake partnership expands the market opportunity for data enrichment and underscores our commitment to meet customers wherever their data lives. Data enrichment has quickly become one of our most successful recent product launches.

    FactorTrust一直是推動我們消費信貸業務全年表現優異的關鍵因素。我們預計FactorTrust在2025年將帶來約20%的成長。TruIQ 資料增強功能已在 Snowflake 上線,首批使用者已正式上線。與 Snowflake 的合作擴大了資料增強的市場機會,並凸顯了我們致力於在客戶資料所在的任何地方滿足其需求的承諾。資料增強功能已迅速成為我們近期最成功的產品之一。

  • In fraud, we experienced strong demand for our newest synthetic fraud models and credit washing solutions. These new tools are built on OneTru and leverage our augmented identity graph which now includes integrated public records and delivers better fraud signals. With OneTru, we're beginning to penetrate the large and fast-growing global market for advanced fraud analytics.

    在詐欺領域,我們最新的合成詐欺模型和信用洗白解決方案的需求強勁。這些新工具基於 OneTru 構建,並利用我們增強的身份圖譜,現在包含整合的公共記錄,並能提供更好的詐欺訊號。透過 OneTru,我們開始打入規模龐大且快速成長的全球高階詐欺分析市場。

  • We're accelerating growth in our marketing suite as well, driven by strong demand for our enhanced cloud-based identity resolution and audience activation capabilities. Over the last few years, we streamlined our marketing suite down from 87 products to across 6 separate platforms into a single integrated marketing platform on OneTru.

    在市場對我們增強的基於雲端的身份解析和受眾激活功能的強勁需求的推動下,我們的行銷套件也在加速成長。過去幾年,我們將行銷套件從 87 個產品、分散在 6 個獨立平台上,精簡為 OneTru 上的整合行銷平台。

  • This integrated solution improves performance and simplifies our product portfolio for sellers and customers. Trusted call solutions continues to scale with new customer wins and ongoing capability enhancements. We expect to deliver over $150 million in revenue in 2025, a 30%-plus increase year-over-year, and we also continue to pursue global expansion opportunities for TCS.

    這個整合解決方案提高了效能,並簡化了我們面向賣家和客戶的產品組合。隨著新客戶的不斷贏得和功能的持續增強,可信任呼叫解決方案的規模不斷擴大。我們預計 2025 年營收將超過 1.5 億美元,年成長 30% 以上,我們也將繼續為 TCS 尋求全球擴張機會。

  • And in Consumer Solutions, our freemium model is increasing in users and offers available. We're also migrating our indirect customers globally onto a new platform that combines our credit education, identity protection and financial offers behind a single set of APIs.

    在消費者解決方案方面,我們的免費增值模式的用戶數量和可提供的服務都在增加。我們還將全球間接客戶遷移到一個新平台,該平台將我們的信用教育、身分保護和金融產品整合到一套 API 中。

  • OneTru brings together our unique data within a single workflow platform. making it easier to deploy AI solutions across use cases and at scale. [NTU] is well positioned for AI-led growth. Our credit solutions are based on proprietary data contributed by thousands of individual furnitures. This data is not publicly available and can only be gathered and utilized within demanding regulatory frameworks.

    OneTru 將我們獨特的資料整合到一個統一的工作流程平台中,從而簡化了在各種應用場景中大規模部署 AI 解決方案的流程。 [NTU] 已做好充分準備,迎接 AI 驅動的成長。我們的信用解決方案是基於數千件家具提供的專有數據。這些數據不對外公開,只能在嚴格的監管框架內收集和使用。

  • Our noncredit solutions also are developed from data gathered from tens of thousands of sources, many unique to TransUnion and then combined with proprietary data exhaust from our fraud and marketing solutions. This vast ray of data fuels our credit, fraud and marketing predictive models, which already use advanced machine learning and AI to boost accuracy and to facilitate actions based on their better predictions.

    我們的非信用解決方案也是基於從數萬個來源收集的資料而開發的,其中許多來源是 TransUnion 獨有的,然後與來自我們詐欺和行銷解決方案的專有資料相結合。大量數據為我們的信用、詐欺和行銷預測模型提供了動力,這些模型已經利用先進的機器學習和人工智慧來提高準確性,並根據其更準確的預測採取行動。

  • And increasingly, TransUnion will capture value with AI agents by performing work currently done by internal client teams or automation upstream from our data and analytics. And our most AI-enabled customers already consume more of our data than our traditional customers, and they adopt our newer solutions more rapidly. So we are actively leveraging AI across the enterprise to drive faster product development, to enhance customer experience and improve ops efficiency.

    TransUnion 將越來越多地利用 AI 代理來創造價值,這些代理可以執行目前由內部客戶團隊完成的工作,或實現我們資料和分析上游的自動化。而且,我們那些最依賴人工智慧的客戶已經比傳統客戶消耗了更多的數據,他們也更快地接受了我們的新解決方案。因此,我們正積極運用人工智慧技術推動企業內部產品開發加速,提升客戶體驗,提高營運效率。

  • Internally, OneTru Assist and OneTru AI studio are driving productivity gains for our software developers and data scientists, but also for nontechnical teams. Within the OneTru tech platform, Agentic AI is enhancing core processes such as data onboarding, ID resolution, analytics and delivery.

    在公司內部,OneTru Assist 和 OneTru AI studio 不僅提高了我們軟體開發人員和資料科學家的生產力,也提高了非技術團隊的生產力。在 OneTru 技術平台中,Agentic AI 正在增強資料導入、ID 解析、分析和交付等核心流程。

  • And at the product level, we're embedding AI into our solutions, including role-based agents for TruIQ analytics, our next-generation fraud detection model and advanced consumer behavioral analytics in our marketing suite.

    在產品層面,我們將人工智慧嵌入到我們的解決方案中,包括用於 TruIQ 分析的角色代理、我們的下一代詐欺檢測模型以及我們行銷套件中的高級消費者行為分析。

  • So in summary, the tech modernization is driving rapid innovation and ops efficiency, but it's also positioning us to lead in the next phase of AI-driven growth. Our strong earnings and solid balance sheet have enabled us to boost capital returns for our shareholders.

    總而言之,技術現代化不僅推動了快速創新和營運效率的提升,也使我們處於人工智慧驅動成長的下一階段的領先地位。我們強勁的獲利能力和穩健的資產負債表使我們能夠提高股東的資本回報。

  • In the third quarter and October, we ramped up share repurchases to $160 million, increasing our total for the year to $200 million, and this reflects our ongoing commitment to shareholder value. The board recently raised our share repurchase authorization to $1 billion and we believe buying back shares is especially attractive given our current market valuation.

    第三季和 10 月份,我們將股票回購額提高到 1.6 億美元,使全年回購總額達到 2 億美元,這反映了我們對股東價值的持續承諾。董事會最近將我們的股票回購授權額度提高到 10 億美元,我們認為鑑於我們目前的市場估值,回購股票尤其具有吸引力。

  • Now with that, I'll hand it over to Todd.

    現在,我把它交給托德。

  • Todd Cello - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Todd Cello - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks, Chris, and let me add my welcome to everyone. As Chris mentioned, we exceeded guidance across all key financial metrics in the third quarter, driven by US Financial Services and Emerging Verticals. Consolidated revenue increased 8% on a reported and 7% on an organic constant currency basis. The Monevo acquisition added 0.5% to growth.

    謝謝克里斯,也請允許我向大家表示歡迎。正如克里斯所提到的,在第三季度,我們所有關鍵財務指標都超出預期,這主要得益於美國金融服務業和新興垂直行業的強勁表現。合併收入以報告匯率計算成長 8%,以有機成長匯率計算成長 7%。收購 Monevo 為公司成長貢獻了 0.5%。

  • The foreign currency impact was immaterial. Excluding the comparison to last year's large breach remediation win, organic constant currency growth was 11%. Mortgage contributed 3 points to growth. Adjusted EBITDA increased 8% with margin at 36.3%, above our 35.6% to 36.2% guidance due to revenue flow-through.

    外匯波動的影響微乎其微。如果排除與去年大型違規補救項目相比的影響,以固定匯率計算的自然成長率為 11%。抵押貸款對經濟成長貢獻了3個百分點。經調整的 EBITDA 成長了 8%,利潤率為 36.3%,高於我們先前 35.6% 至 36.2% 的預期,這主要得益於營收的成長。

  • Adjusted diluted earnings per share was $1.10, $0.06 ahead of the high end of our guidance and an increase of 6%. In the third quarter, we incurred $34 million of onetime charges related to our transformation program, $12 million for operating model optimization and $22 million for technology transformation. Cumulative onetime transformation expenses totaled $49 million, and we remain on track and within budget for our $355 million to $375 million in onetime expenses by the end of 2025.

    經調整後的稀釋每股收益為 1.10 美元,比我們預期的上限高出 0.06 美元,成長了 6%。第三季度,我們產生了與轉型計畫相關的 3,400 萬美元一次性費用,其中 1,200 萬美元用於營運模式最佳化,2,200 萬美元用於技術轉型。累計一次性轉型支出總額為 4,900 萬美元,我們仍按計劃在 2025 年底前實現 3.55 億美元至 3.75 億美元的一次性支出目標,並且仍在預算範圍內。

  • Looking at segment financial performance for the third quarter. US markets revenue was up 7% on an organic constant currency basis versus the prior year or 13% excluding the impact of last year's large breach win. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 38.4%, up 70 basis points due to revenue flow-through and lower product costs compared to the prior year. Financial Services revenue grew 19% or 12% excluding mortgage. In the US, consumers remain resilient with still low unemployment and positive wage growth and lenders well positioned with adequate capital and healthy credit performance.

    分析第三季各業務部門的財務表現。美國市場收入以有機成長(以固定匯率計算)比上年增長 7%,若不計去年大額違規事件中標的影響,則增長 13%。經調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 38.4%,較上年增長 70 個基點,主要原因是收入成長和產品成本降低。金融服務收入成長了 19%,若不計抵押貸款收入,則成長了 12%。在美國,消費者依然保持韌性,失業率仍然很低,薪資成長勢頭良好;貸款機構也擁有充足的資本和健康的信貸表現,處境穩健。

  • Our growth reflects strong performance against the favorable and stable market backdrop. We continue to outperform the market by driving new business wins across our solution suites. Credit card and banking rose 5% against modestly improving online volumes. We continue to see good sales momentum with trusted call solutions and alternative data. Consumer lending grew 17%, driven by healthy marketing and origination activity from fintech and point-of-sale lenders.

    我們的成長反映了在有利穩定的市場環境下的強勁表現。我們透過全方位的解決方案贏得新業務,並持續超越市場表現。信用卡和銀行業務成長了 5%,而線上業務量略有成長。我們看到,憑藉著值得信賴的通話解決方案和替代數據,銷售動能依然強勁。受金融科技公司和銷售點貸款機構健康的行銷和貸款發放活動的推動,消費信貸增加了 17%。

  • FactorTrust also delivered another strong quarter. Auto grew 16%, driven by pricing as well as growth in communications and marketing solutions. We saw an uptick in activity in the quarter, including increased electric vehicle sales in September ahead of the expiration of the federal EV tax credit. We anticipate volumes to normalize in the fourth quarter. Mortgage revenue grew 35% on flat inquiry volumes, benefiting from third-party scores pricing and non tri-bureau revenue.

    FactorTrust 也取得了另一個強勁的季度業績。汽車產業成長了 16%,主要受價格上漲以及通訊和行銷解決方案成長的推動。本季我們看到業務活動增加,包括9月份電動車銷量成長,這得益於聯邦電動車稅收抵免政策的到期。我們預計第四季銷售將恢復正常。抵押貸款收入在諮詢量持平的情況下增長了 35%,這得益於第三方評分定價和非三家機構收入。

  • Mortgage now represents 12% of trailing 12-month revenue. Emerging Verticals grew 7.5%, led by double-digit growth in insurance. Other Verticals accelerated as well, driven by strength in trusted call solutions, marketing and specialized risk, tax retail and e-commerce and collections posted double-digit growth. Media & Communications grew mid-single digits and tenant and employment grew low single digits. Public sector declined due to revenue timing.

    抵押貸款目前佔過去 12 個月收入的 12%。新興垂直產業成長7.5%,其中保險業實現了兩位數成長。在值得信賴的呼叫解決方案、行銷和專業風險、稅務零售和電子商務以及催收業務的強勁推動下,其他垂直領域也實現了加速成長,並取得了兩位數的成長。媒體與通訊產業實現了中等個位數的成長,而租戶和就業人數則實現了低個位數的成長。公共部門下滑是因為收入發放時間所致。

  • In Insurance, we delivered another strong quarter. Consumer shopping remains elevated credit-based marketing activity continues to normalize as insurers benefit from improved rate adequacy complemented by new wins in our modern marketing solutions. Commercial momentum continued in core credit and driving history products as well as trusted call solutions.

    在保險業務方面,我們又取得了強勁的季度業績。消費者購物仍然活躍,基於信貸的行銷活動繼續正常化,保險公司受益於費率充足性的提高以及我們在現代行銷解決方案方面取得的新勝利。核心信用和駕駛記錄產品以及值得信賴的通話解決方案的商業勢頭持續強勁。

  • Turning to Consumer Interactive. Revenue declined 18% on an organic constant currency basis due to last year's breach remediation win. Excluding this impact, Consumer Interactive grew mid-single digits with growth in both the direct and indirect channels. For my comments about International, all revenue growth comparisons will be in organic constant currency terms. For the total segment, revenue grew 6%. Canada and the UK delivered double-digit growth, demonstrating our ability to outgrow market volumes in our most mature markets.

    轉向消費者互動。由於去年成功獲得違規補救措施,以有機成長和固定匯率計算,收入下降了 18%。剔除此影響,消費者互動業務實現了中等個位數成長,直接通路和間接通路均實現成長。關於國際業務的評論,所有收入成長比較都將以有機成長、固定匯率計算。該業務板塊整體收入成長了 6%。加拿大和英國實現了兩位數的成長,這表明我們在最成熟的市場中也能夠實現超過市場規模的成長。

  • Africa and the Philippines also grew double digits. Other markets, including India, Latin America and Hong Kong experienced below-trend market volumes and growth rates. Adjusted EBITDA margin for our International segment was 43.2%.

    非洲和菲律賓的經濟也實現了兩位數成長。包括印度、拉丁美洲和香港在內的其他市場,其市場規模和成長率均低於趨勢水準。國際業務部門的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 43.2%。

  • Looking at the specifics for each region. India grew 5%, slightly below our expectations as recent trade actions tempered the pace of volume recovery. We now anticipate the high single-digit revenue growth in India in the fourth quarter.

    逐個地區具體分析。印度經濟成長5%,略低於我們的預期,因為最近的貿易措施減緩了銷售復甦的步伐。我們現在預計第四季度印度市場的收入將實現高個位數成長。

  • In late 2023 and throughout 2024, the Reserve Bank of India took actions to slow lending by tightening regulations and targeting lower loan-to-deposit ratios industry-wide. That actions included temporary bands of several nonbanking finance companies. Volumes troughed in the fourth quarter of 2024 with gradual improvement throughout 2025. Conditions overall are favorable with manageable delinquencies and modest inflation.

    2023 年末和 2024 年全年,印度儲備銀行採取措施減緩貸款速度,收緊監管,並力求降低全行業的存貸比。這些行動包括暫時取締幾家非銀行金融公司。銷量在 2024 年第四季觸底,並在 2025 年逐步改善。整體而言,經濟情勢良好,違約率可控,通貨膨脹率適中。

  • The RBI lowered rates by 100 basis points throughout 2025, and lifted lending bands on the impacted nonbanking finance company. The recovery has been measured. Loan-to-deposit ratios are still modestly elevated and non-bank finance companies have conservatively returned to the market. Lenders are prioritizing existing customers and lower volume, higher notional loans over new-to-credit opportunities. These dynamics have underpinned our guidance throughout the year.

    印度儲備銀行在2025年全年將利率下調了100個基點,並提高了受影響的非銀行金融公司的貸款限額。復甦情況已被衡量。存貸比仍然略高,非銀行金融公司已謹慎地重返市場。貸款機構優先考慮現有客戶和小額、高名目金額的貸款,而不是新的信貸機會。這些動態因素貫穿了我們全年的指導方針。

  • Recent US tariffs of 50% on Indian imports, however, introduced uncertainty and has dampened commercial lending particularly to small and medium-sized businesses in export-oriented sectors. This has resulted in new pressures on CapEx, employment and credit demand. On a positive note, the Indian government recently enacted tax reforms and the RBI proposed further regulatory easing to support lenders and stimulate growth. Volumes in the early festive season in late September and early October, while still dampened from tariff effects showed some improvement.

    然而,美國最近對印度進口商品加徵 50% 的關稅,帶來了不確定性,並抑制了商業貸款,特別是對出口導向產業的中小型企業的貸款。這給資本支出、就業和信貸需求帶來了新的壓力。從積極的方面來看,印度政府最近實施了稅收改革,印度儲備銀行也提議進一步放鬆監管,以支持貸款機構並刺激經濟成長。9 月下旬和 10 月初的節日季初期,銷量雖然仍受到關稅的影響,但已有所改善。

  • We will monitor ongoing trends. From a TransUnion perspective, we continue to deliver double-digit growth in business wins and new product introductions, outperforming the broader market and our competitors. We remain highly confident in India's robust long-term growth potential. Our UK business grew 11%.

    我們將持續關注發展趨勢。從 TransUnion 的角度來看,我們在業務拓展和新產品推出方面持續保持兩位數的成長,表現優於整個市場和我們的競爭對手。我們對印度強勁的長期成長潛力依然充滿信心。我們的英國業務成長了11%。

  • Our strongest performance since 2022 driven by healthy volumes from our largest banking customers and new business wins across verticals. We also continue to expand our consumer indirect offering to new partners, now serving over 27 million UK consumers. Canada also grew 11%. We drove innovation-led share gains across financial services, telco, insurance and auto as well as new and expanded wins in fintech and Consumer Indirect.

    這是我們自 2022 年以來表現最好的一年,這主要得益於我們最大的銀行客戶的良好交易量以及在各個垂直領域贏得的新業務。我們也將持續擴大新合作夥伴的消費者間接服務範圍,目前已為超過 2,700 萬英國消費者提供服務。加拿大也成長了11%。我們透過創新推動了金融服務、電信、保險和汽車領域的市場份額成長,並在金融科技和消費間接領域取得了新的和擴大的勝利。

  • Latin America revenue was flat amid softer economic and lending conditions. Colombia delivered modest growth despite political uncertainty that weighed on government revenues and lending activity. Brazil declined as we lapped one-time project revenue. Our other Latin America countries grew modestly, impacted by consumer uncertainty linked to recent trade and immigration policies. Strategic campaigns and innovation-led wins offset some of the near-term volume pressures in the region.

    受經濟和信貸環境疲軟的影響,拉丁美洲的收入持平。儘管政治不確定性對政府收入和貸款活動造成了壓力,哥倫比亞仍實現了溫和成長。隨著一次性專案收入的減少,巴西市場萎縮了。受近期貿易和移民政策帶來的消費者不確定性影響,我們在拉丁美洲其他地區的經濟成長較為溫和。策略性行銷活動和創新驅動的成功在一定程度上緩解了該地區近期的銷售壓力。

  • Asia Pacific declined 8%. The Philippines remain strong, but Hong Kong faced a soft economic backdrop. We also lapped onetime consulting revenue from the prior year. Finally, Africa increased 12% with broad-based growth across financial services, retail and insurance.

    亞太地區下降了8%。菲律賓經濟依然強勁,但香港面臨疲軟的經濟環境。我們也計入了前一年的一次性諮詢收入。最後,非洲經濟成長了 12%,金融服務、零售和保險業均實現了全面成長。

  • Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $5.1 billion of debt and $750 million of cash on the balance sheet. Our leverage ratio at quarter end declined to 2.7 times as we continue to push toward our long-term target of under 2.5 times. Our strengthening free cash flow and ongoing natural delevering positions us to accelerate capital returns to shareholders. We repurchased $160 million in shares in the third quarter and October, bringing the year-to-date total to $200 million. We remain on track to complete the Mexico acquisition in late 2025 or early 2026, which will be funded with cash on hand and debt. We look forward to adding Mexico to our leading global portfolio and bringing our state-of-the-art technology, innovative solutions and industry expertise to Mexican consumers and businesses.

    接下來看一下資產負債表。本季末,我們的資產負債表上負債 51 億美元,現金 7.5 億美元。截至季末,我們的槓桿率降至 2.7 倍,我們正繼續朝著低於 2.5 倍的長期目標邁進。我們不斷增強的自由現金流和持續的自然去槓桿化使我們能夠加快向股東返還資本。我們在第三季和 10 月回購了價值 1.6 億美元的股票,使今年迄今的回購總額達到 2 億美元。我們仍按計劃在 2025 年底或 2026 年初完成對墨西哥的收購,資金將來自現有現金和債務。我們期待將墨西哥納入我們領先的全球業務組合,並將我們最先進的技術、創新解決方案和行業專業知識帶給墨西哥的消費者和企業。

  • Turning to guidance. As Chris mentioned, we are raising our full year outlook, reflecting strong third quarter results, stable US lending conditions and new business wins. Our guidance remains prudently conservative. If current conditions continue, we expect to deliver results at or above the high end of our guidance range.

    尋求指導。正如克里斯所提到的,我們上調了全年業績預期,這反映了強勁的第三季業績、穩定的美國貸款環境以及新業務的贏得。我們的指導方針依然是審慎保守的。如果目前的情況持續下去,我們預期業績將達到或超過我們預期範圍的高端水準。

  • That brings us to our outlook for the fourth quarter. FX impact is expected to be minimal to both revenue and adjusted EBITDA. We expect our Monevo acquisition to contribute roughly 1% to revenue. We expect revenue to be between $1.119 and $1.139 billion, up 7% to 9% on an organic constant currency basis.

    接下來,我們將展望第四季。預計匯率波動對收入和調整後 EBITDA 的影響微乎其微。我們預計對 Monevo 的收購將為公司帶來約 1% 的收入。我們預計營收將在 11.19 億美元至 11.39 億美元之間,以自然成長和固定匯率計算成長 7% 至 9%。

  • Our revenue guidance includes 2 points of tailwind from mortgage. In the fourth quarter, mortgage inquiries are expected to increase modestly. We expect adjusted EBITDA to be between $393 million and $407 million, up 4% to 8%. We expect an adjusted EBITDA margin of 35.1% to 35.8%, down 70 to 130 basis points.

    我們的營收預期包含了抵押貸款帶來的 2 個百分點的利多。預計第四季度抵押貸款諮詢量將小幅增長。我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將在 3.93 億美元至 4.07 億美元之間,成長 4% 至 8%。我們預計調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 35.1% 至 35.8%,下降 70 至 130 個基點。

  • We expect our adjusted EBITDA margin in the second half of the year to be roughly 36%, consistent with the first half of the year and full year expectations. We expect our adjusted diluted earnings per share to be between $0.97 and $1.02, down 1% to up 5%.

    我們預計下半年的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率約為 36%,與上半年和全年的預期一致。我們預計調整後的稀釋每股收益將在 0.97 美元至 1.02 美元之間,下降 1% 至成長 5%。

  • Turning to the full year. We anticipate FX to be immaterial to revenue and adjusted EBITDA and the Monevo acquisition to contribute 0.5% to revenue. We expect revenue of between $4.524 billion and $4.544 billion. We expect organic constant currency revenue growth of 8% and an increase from our prior guidance of 6% to 7%.

    展望全年。我們預期外匯波動對營收和調整後 EBITDA 的影響不大,Monevo 收購將為營收貢獻 0.5%。我們預計營收將在 45.24 億美元至 45.44 億美元之間。我們預期有機收入(以固定匯率計算)將成長 8%,高於我們先前 6% 至 7% 的預期。

  • Excluding mortgage, we expect organic constant currency growth of 5% to 6%. These growth rates include a 1% headwind from last year's breach win comparison. Specific to our segment organic constant currency assumptions, we expect US markets to be up high single digits or mid-single digits, excluding mortgage. We now anticipate financial services to be up mid-teens or roughly 10%, excluding mortgage.

    不計抵押貸款,我們預期有機成長率(以固定匯率計算)為 5% 至 6%。這些成長率包含了與去年突破成功率相比的 1% 的不利影響。根據我們以固定匯率計算的細分市場有機成長假設,我們預期美國市場(不包括抵押貸款)將實現高個位數或中個位數的成長。我們現在預計金融服務業(不包括抵押貸款)將成長15%左右,約10%。

  • We expect mortgage revenue to increase by nearly 30% against modest declines in mortgage inquiries. We expect emerging verticals to be up mid-single digit. We anticipate Consumer Interactive decreasing low single digit, but increasing low single digit when excluding the impact of last year's large breach win. We now anticipate international growing mid-single digits.

    我們預計,儘管抵押貸款諮詢量略有下降,但抵押貸款收入仍將增加近 30%。我們預期新興垂直產業將實現個位數中段的成長。我們預計 Consumer Interactive 將出現個位數低幅下降,但如果排除去年重大違規事件勝利的影響,則將出現個位數低幅增長。我們現在預計國際經濟成長將達到中等個位數。

  • Turning back to the total company outlook. We expect adjusted EBITDA to be between $1.622billion and $1.637 billion, up 8% to 9%, an increase from our prior guidance of 5% to 7% that would result in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 35.9% to 36.0%, down 10 basis points to flat. The anticipated adjusted diluted earnings per share to be $4.19 to $4.25, up 7% to 9%, also an increase from prior guidance of 3% to 6% growth.

    回到公司整體前景。我們預計調整後 EBITDA 將在 16.22 億美元至 16.37 億美元之間,成長 8% 至 9%,高於我們先前 5% 至 7% 的預期,這將導致調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 35.9% 至 36.0%,下降 10 個基點持平至。預計調整後稀釋每股收益為 4.19 美元至 4.25 美元,成長 7% 至 9%,也高於先前 3% 至 6% 的成長預期。

  • Our expected adjusted diluted earnings per share growth reflects strong double-digit underlying performance, excluding a 400 basis headwind from a higher tax rate in 2025. We expect depreciation and amortization to be approximately $570 million. We expect the portion excluding step-up amortization from our 2012 change in control and subsequent acquisitions to be about $285 million as technology modernization initiatives go into production and start to depreciate. We anticipate net interest expense will be about $200 million for the full year and we expect our adjusted tax rate to be approximately 26.5%.

    我們預期的調整後稀釋每股盈餘成長反映了強勁的兩位數基本面業績,不包括 2025 年稅率提高帶來的 400 個基點的不利影響。我們預計折舊和攤提費用約為 5.7 億美元。我們預計,由於技術現代化計劃投入生產並開始折舊,2012 年控制權變更和後續收購產生的遞增攤銷部分將約為 2.85 億美元。我們預計全年淨利息支出約為 2 億美元,預計調整後的稅率約為 26.5%。

  • Capital expenditures are expected to be about 8% of revenue. We continue to expect to incur $100 million to $120 million in onetime charges in 2025 related to the last year of our transformation program. Given those investments, we expect our free cash flow conversion as a percentage of adjusted net income to be 70% in 2025 before improving to 90% plus in 2026.

    預計資本支出將佔收入的8%左右。我們預計在 2025 年將產生 1 億美元至 1.2 億美元的一次性費用,這與我們轉型計畫的最後一年有關。鑑於這些投資,我們預計到 2025 年,我們的自由現金流轉換率(佔調整後淨收入的百分比)將達到 70%,然後在 2026 年提高到 90% 以上。

  • I will now turn the call back to Chris for closing remarks.

    現在我將把電話轉回給克里斯,請他作總結發言。

  • Christopher Cartwright - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Christopher Cartwright - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thank you, Todd. So I'd like to provide some perspective on the recent changes in the mortgage market both in terms of score competition and also distribution. We believe that these changes are a net positive for TransUnion, enabling us to fully leverage our leading trended and alternative data to the benefit of homebuyers.

    謝謝你,托德。因此,我想就抵押貸款市場最近的變化,包括評分競爭和分佈情況,提供一些見解。我們相信這些變化對 TransUnion 來說是積極的,使我們能夠充分利用我們領先的趨勢數據和另類數據,從而造福購房者。

  • Additionally, we believe that the introduction of score competition will redistribute the economic value in the mortgage credit market towards data providers and away from scores. And this is what we experienced in all markets where score competition exists.

    此外,我們認為引入評分競爭機制將使抵押貸款信貸市場的經濟價值轉移到數據提供者身上,而不是向評分轉移。我們在所有存在評分競爭的市場中都經歷了這種情況。

  • It's our extensive contributed data from thousands of lenders that forms the foundation of value in mortgage credit decisions, not the score. And we expect the proportion of value associated with data to increase over time now that competition is possible. As a pioneer in trended data and an innovator in the alternative data space, TU will empower mortgage lenders to reward consumers for responsible credit behaviors while preserving the safety and soundness of the mortgage market.

    抵押貸款信貸決策的價值基礎,不是評分,而是我們從數千家貸款機構收集的大量數據。我們預計,隨著競爭的出現,與數據相關的價值比例會隨著時間的推移而增加。作為趨勢數據領域的先驅和另類數據領域的創新者,TU 將賦能抵押貸款機構,使其能夠獎勵負責任的信用行為,同時維護抵押貸款市場的安全性和穩健性。

  • TransUnion is the only bureau with 30 months of trended credit data creating the most complete picture of consumers. And we continue to enhance our mortgage credit report with alternative data, including rental and utility trade lines and short-term lending attributes.

    TransUnion是唯一擁有30個月趨勢信用資料的信用機構,能夠最全面地展現消費者的信用狀況。我們將繼續利用替代數據(包括租金和公用事業交易記錄以及短期貸款屬性)來完善我們的抵押貸款信用報告。

  • Now VantageScore 4.0 uses trended in alternative data to boost predictive accuracy and to expand financial access, scoring 33 million consumers that were previously credit invisible. And the score is already used by the largest banks and 3,700 institutions in total, including increasingly in securitization. Additionally, VantageScore is the leading credit score for credit education, serving 220 million consumers.

    現在,VantageScore 4.0 利用另類資料的趨勢來提高預測準確性並擴大金融服務覆蓋範圍,為先前信用記錄空白的 3,300 萬消費者提供評分。該評分系統已被最大的幾家銀行和總共 3700 家機構使用,其中越來越多地應用於證券化領域。此外,VantageScore 是領先的信用評分系統,為 2.2 億消費者提供信用教育服務。

  • So we believe that the combination of TransUnion's leading trended and alternative data alongside VantageScore 4.0 will shape a new era of more inclusive mortgage access, benefiting homebuyers, lenders and investors. And we provided further details on the importance of TransUnion in the lending ecosystem and the value proposition of the VantageScore in our appendix of this earnings presentation.

    因此,我們相信,TransUnion 領先的趨勢和另類數據與 VantageScore 4.0 的結合,將塑造一個更具包容性的抵押貸款獲取新時代,使購房者、貸款人和投資者受益。我們在本次收益報告的附錄中提供了有關 TransUnion 在貸款生態系統中的重要性以及 VantageScore 價值主張的更多詳細資訊。

  • So starting in '26, we're expanding our mortgage credit offerings to accelerate VantageScore adoption. First, we'll offer VantageScore 4.0 at $4, significantly below FICO's announced price hike to $10. For customers that adopt Vantage 4.0, the cost for a credit report plus the score in '26 will be similar to the cost of a credit report plus the FICO score in '25.

    因此,從 2026 年開始,我們將擴大抵押貸款信貸產品,以加速 VantageScore 的採用。首先,我們將以 4 美元的價格提供 VantageScore 4.0,遠低於 FICO 宣布的漲價至 10 美元。對於採用 Vantage 4.0 的客戶而言,2026 年信用報告加上評分的費用將與 2025 年信用報告加上 FICO 評分的費用類似。

  • Now to enable lender choice will also provide a free VantageScore 4.0 for mortgage customers that purchase a FICO for from TransUnion through the end of 2026. We'll also offer multiyear pricing for credit reports and VantageScore 4.0 to promote certainty after multiple years of rapid FICO price increases.

    現在,為了方便貸款機構選擇,TransUnion 還將為在 2026 年底前購買 FICO 信用評分的抵押貸款客戶提供免費的 VantageScore 4.0 信用評分。在經歷了多年 FICO 價格快速上漲之後,我們還將提供信用報告和 VantageScore 4.0 的多年定價,以促進確定性。

  • And we'll launch a free VantageScore credit score simulator to empower prospective homebuyers to improve their credit scores and qualify for the best possible mortgage terms. So these offerings provide clear cost savings and predictable pricing for clients, emphasizing that the main value in lending is in the data.

    我們將推出免費的 VantageScore 信用評分模擬器,幫助潛在購屋者提高信用評分,並獲得最佳的抵押貸款條件。因此,這些產品為客戶節省了成本,並提供了可預測的定價,強調了貸款的主要價值在於數據。

  • Our actions will preserve the profitability of our mortgage vertical regardless of changes in third-party score delivery models. For TU, VantageScore adoption represents an incremental profit and margin opportunity over time. So looking at the industry broadly, even a modest recovery in mortgage activity would boost already attractive financial results.

    無論第三方評分提供模式如何變化,我們的行動都將維持抵押貸款業務的獲利能力。對 TU 而言,採用 VantageScore 代表著隨著時間的推移,利潤和利潤率將有所提升。因此,從整個產業來看,即使抵押貸款活動出現小幅復甦,也將提振本已十分可觀的財務表現。

  • Mortgage originations in 2025 are roughly 40% below 2019 levels and at their lowest levels since the middle of the '90s. Despite this volume decline, we have built a strong profit base in mortgage. This year, we expect to deliver $580 million in mortgage revenues or $395 million when excluding the $185 million of no margin FICO royalties.

    2025 年的抵押貸款發放量比 2019 年的水準低約 40%,是自 90 年代中期以來的最低水準。儘管交易量有所下降,但我們在抵押貸款領域建立了強大的利潤基礎。今年,我們預計抵押貸款收入將達到 5.8 億美元,如果扣除 1.85 億美元的無利潤 FICO 特許權使用費,則收入將達到 3.95 億美元。

  • Now we expect an eventual normalization in mortgage activity with the pace largely determined by interest rates. Lower rates would drive substantial refinancing activity and start to unlock home purchase demand. Currently, over 9 million mortgages have rates above 6% compared to $5 million total mortgage originations in 2024. So if the average rates fall below 6%, we expect a significant increase in market activity.

    現在我們預計抵押貸款活動最終將恢復正常,而恢復速度主要取決於利率。利率降低將推動大規模的再融資活動,並開始釋放購屋需求。目前,超過 900 萬筆抵押貸款的利率高於 6%,而 2024 年抵押貸款發放總額為 500 萬美元。因此,如果平均利率降至 6% 以下,我們預期市場活動將大幅增加。

  • This normalization would significantly boost our earnings. Every 10% increase in mortgage volumes would add $40 million of adjusted EBITDA and $0.15 to our earnings, a full recovery to 2019 levels equates to $240 million of adjusted EBITDA increase or $0.90 in our earnings. And this represents a 20% increase to 2025 adjusted diluted earnings per share.

    這種正常化將顯著提高我們的收益。抵押貸款量每增加 10%,調整後 EBITDA 將增加 4,000 萬美元,收益將增加 0.15 美元;完全恢復到 2019 年的水平,調整後 EBITDA 將增加 2.4 億美元,收益將增加 0.90 美元。這意味著到 2025 年調整後稀釋每股盈餘將成長 20%。

  • Any volume normalization would be in addition to the typical growth drivers in mortgage of pricing and innovation-led new business wins as well as the upside from VantageScore adoption. And lower interest rates would drive incremental volume demands across all lending categories, which also remained below the long-term trends.

    任何交易量正常化都將是抵押貸款行業典型成長驅動因素(定價和創新驅動的新業務贏得)以及 VantageScore 採用帶來的成長之外的額外因素。較低的利率將推動所有貸款類別的增量需求,但這些需求仍然低於長期趨勢。

  • So taking this together, we remain confident in navigating this evolving mortgage landscape to maintain our attractive financial profile with upside from VantageScore adoption as well as an eventual recovery in lending volumes.

    綜上所述,我們仍然有信心駕馭不斷變化的抵押貸款市場,保持我們良好的財務狀況,並受益於 VantageScore 的採用以及貸款量的最終復甦。

  • Now in closing, TransUnion's strong third quarter and year-to-date results highlight the benefits of our multiyear strategic transformation. We view the high single-digit revenue growth in the double-digit underlying EPS growth in each of the last years years as indicative of the long-term earnings power of our business in stable conditions.

    最後,TransUnion 第三季和年初至今的強勁業績凸顯了我們多年策略轉型帶來的益處。我們認為,在過去幾年中,營收實現了兩位數的高個位數成長,而每股收益卻實現了兩位數的成長,這表明在穩定的環境下,我們的業務具有長期的獲利能力。

  • And going forward, we're poised to accelerate growth and efficiency powered by our modern technology platform and the most innovative products in our history. We're just beginning to tap the potential in large and growing markets such as credit analytics, fraud, marketing and trusted call solutions. And we've also reinvigorated our consumer business. We see growth upside in each of these businesses because of recent product innovation and our expanded go-to-market adverts.

    展望未來,我們將憑藉現代化的技術平台和公司歷史上最具創新性的產品,加速成長並提高效率。我們才剛開始挖掘信用分析、詐欺、行銷和可信任呼叫解決方案等大型且不斷增長的市場的潛力。我們也重振了消費者業務。由於近期產品創新和擴大市場推廣廣告,我們認為這些業務都有成長潛力。

  • And this is in addition to any benefit from normalization in US mortgage as well as India returning to its typical growth algorithm. Our industry-leading growth and enhanced free cash flow generation will enable us to accelerate capital returns to shareholders, while continuing to invest thoughtfully in innovation and expansion.

    此外,這還不包括美國抵押貸款市場正常化以及印度恢復正常成長模式所帶來的任何好處。我們行業領先的成長和不斷增強的自由現金流產生能力將使我們能夠加快向股東返還資本,同時繼續在創新和擴張方面進行深思熟慮的投資。

  • So we plan to share more about our technology transformation, product innovations and accelerating commercial momentum as well as updating our medium-term financial framework at an Investor Day that we will host in early 2026.

    因此,我們計劃在 2026 年初舉辦的投資者日活動上,分享更多關於我們的技術轉型、產品創新和加速商業發展勢頭的信息,並更新我們的中期財務框架。

  • And so with that, let me turn it back to Greg.

    那麼,接下來就交給格雷格吧。

  • Gregory Bardi - Vice President of Investor Relations

    Gregory Bardi - Vice President of Investor Relations

  • That concludes our prepared remarks. For the Q&A, we ask that each ask only one question so we can include more participants. Operator, we can begin the Q&A.

    我們的發言稿到此結束。在問答環節,我們要求每人只提一個問題,以便我們能讓更多人參與其中。操作員,我們可以開始問答環節了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

    謝謝。現在開始問答環節。(操作說明)

  • Andrew Steinerman, JPMorgan.

    Andrew Steinerman,摩根大通。

  • Andrew Steinerman - Analyst

    Andrew Steinerman - Analyst

  • Good morning. I appreciate the left side of slide 4. This is the slide that breaks down the growth drivers by bar and colored bars in US market. I particularly wanted to ask how much of the US market growth here on slide 4 is coming from FICO pricing pass-through.

    早安.我很喜歡第四張投影片的左側部分。此幻燈片以長條圖和彩色長條圖的形式細分了美國市場的成長驅動因素。我特別想問一下,投影片 4 中提到的美國市場成長有多少是來自於 FICO 定價的傳遞。

  • And I'm just assuming that is on the green bar of pricing, you correct me if I'm wrong, and while you're looking at the green bars, if you could just comment on the other green bars, the volume growth, that's credit volume growth and the noncredit growth green bars, do you think TransUnion is growing with market or gaining share relative to end market activity?

    我假設這是價格的綠色長條圖,如果我錯了請糾正我。另外,既然您在看綠色長條圖,能否也評論一下其他綠色長條圖,例如信貸業務量成長和非信貸業務量成長的綠色長條圖?您認為 TransUnion 的成長是與市場同步成長,還是相對於終端市場活動而言,其市佔率正在成長?

  • Todd Cello - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Todd Cello - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Good morning Andrew, this is Todd. I'll take that question. So as it pertains to pricing, when we look at that 5%, I would say, good portion of that relates to the mortgage pricing. But there still is pricing that TransUnion does take, and we do have a pretty robust process to have price increases on an annual basis. But say the majority of that is primarily related to mortgage.

    早安,安德魯,我是陶德。我來回答這個問題。所以就定價而言,當我們審視這 5% 時,我認為其中很大一部分與抵押貸款定價有關。但 TransUnion 仍然會收取一定的費用,而且我們有一套相當完善的流程來每年進行價格調整。但假設其中大部分主要與抵押貸款有關。

  • If we look at the other green bars, the volumes in particular, do speak to the growth that we have been experiencing within credit. So we articulated that, talk specifically about within financial services, excluding mortgage, saw some really good growth in consumer lending. Credit card and banking also was up a little bit and auto has kind of held its own. Other than that, like we are seeing good volume growth outside within the emerging verticals as well.

    如果我們看其他綠色長條圖,特別是成交量,確實反映了我們在信貸領域所經歷的成長。因此我們明確指出,具體來說,在金融服務領域(不包括抵押貸款),消費貸款領域出現了非常好的成長。信用卡和銀行業務也有小幅成長,而汽車業務則基本上保持穩定。除此之外,我們也看到新興垂直領域以外的銷售也出現了良好的成長。

  • If you look at noncredit growth, think of that as our trusted call solution capabilities. Think of that as marketing as well as fraud. And in particular, in the third quarter, we saw very strong growth continue in trusted call solutions. And encouragingly, marketing post a very good solid quarter. And you can see that when you look through to the Emerging Vertical overall growth rate at 7.5%. Just to add on to that, too.

    如果著眼於非信貸業務的成長,可以將其視為我們值得信賴的呼叫解決方案能力。這既是行銷手段,也是欺詐行為。尤其是在第三季度,我們看到可信任呼叫解決方案持續保持強勁成長。令人鼓舞的是,行銷部門本季表現非常穩健。從新興垂直產業的整體成長率 7.5% 可以看出這一點。我再補充一點。

  • One last thing is that the -- I just talked about the volumes in that first bar, but the bar clearly has wins in there as well, too. So I'd be remiss to not recognize the terrific work that our sales team has done and continuing to build our pipeline, convert to bookings and ultimately, enjoy the revenue recognition that you're seeing here.

    最後一點是——我剛才談到了第一根長條圖中的成交量,但很明顯,這根柱狀圖中也包含了贏盤。因此,如果我不肯定我們銷售團隊所做的出色工作,以及他們不斷拓展銷售管道、轉化為訂單並最終獲得您現在看到的收益,那就太失職了。

  • Christopher Cartwright - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Christopher Cartwright - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. And look, if I can add my two sentences Andrew. Obviously, to compare our results to the market, you got to do some slicing and dicing for noncomparable lines of businesses and such between the different players. When we isolate it down to financial services performance, we think we're materially outgrowing the market. A lot of it is due to our new innovation.

    是的。還有,安德魯,如果我能補充兩句話的話。顯然,要將我們的結果與市場進行比較,就必須對不同參與者之間不可比擬的業務線等進行一些細分和分析。如果只看金融服務業的業績,我們認為我們的成長速度已經遠遠超過了市場平均。這很大程度上歸功於我們的新技術創新。

  • The FactorTrust score has really reinvigorated our growth across consumer lending, and so yeah, we are gaining share. And when you adjust for mortgage, which is a bit of a content between the several bureaus, our growth rate is more than double that of what we see elsewhere in the market.

    FactorTrust 評分確實重振了我們在消費信貸領域的成長,所以,是的,我們的市佔率正在成長。如果將抵押貸款因素納入考量(各家信用評級機構對此數據有一定差異),我們的成長率是市場上其他地區成長率的兩倍以上。

  • Andrew Steinerman - Analyst

    Andrew Steinerman - Analyst

  • Great, thanks, Chris.

    太好了,謝謝你,克里斯。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jeff Meuler, Baird.

    Jeff Meuler,Baird。

  • Jeff Meuler - Analyst

    Jeff Meuler - Analyst

  • Yeah, thank you. Good morning. So really nice quarter. They've been good for a while now. I want to ask about the pace of investment. There was a nice EBITDA to go along with really good revenue growth, but the flow-through on the revenue upside was lower than it sometimes is on big revenue beat, especially when you're at 11% underlying growth. So my question, are you incrementally, I guess, reinvesting into strength? And if it's incremental investment, what is it in? Like is it some of the AI initiatives ahead of productivity and revenue benefit? Or what is it? And any framework, updated framework you can give on how to think about margins beyond '25. Thank you.

    是啊,謝謝。早安.所以這季過得真不錯。他們一直表現不錯。我想了解一下投資速度的情況。雖然 EBITDA 表現不錯,營收成長也相當可觀,但營收成長帶來的實際收益卻低於以往大幅超預期時的水平,尤其是在基礎成長率達到 11% 的情況下。所以我的問題是,你是否在逐步地,我想,重新投入自身實力的提升?如果是增量投資,那麼投資方向是什麼?例如,人工智慧的一些措施是否能帶來生產力和收入方面的提升?或者它到底是什麼?以及任何關於如何思考「25」以後利潤率的框架,或是更新的框架。謝謝。

  • Christopher Cartwright - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Christopher Cartwright - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Well, listen, for sure, Andrew, I think you characterized it -- sorry, Jeff, apologies. I think you characterized it right that we are accelerating investments given the financial strength that we're delivering in 2025. And I mean just pulling back the frame a little bit, we're very happy with how we're performing, not just in the quarter, but how we're set up to perform in '25 and really over the past couple of years. We're talking very high single-digit organic compounding growth.

    是的。嗯,聽著,安德魯,我當然認為你描述得很到位——對不起,傑夫,抱歉。我認為你的描述很準確,鑑於我們在 2025 年展現出的財務實力,我們正在加快投資。我的意思是,稍微回顧一下,我們對自己的表現非常滿意,不僅是本季度,還有我們為2025年以及過去幾年的表現所做的準備。我們說的是極高的個位數有機複合成長率。

  • We've got margin expansion. We've got low double-digit EPS growth when you make sensible adjustments to the numbers. And we're highly confident that we're going to deliver on all of these metrics, including our 36% margin guide. I would also point out that our guide for the remainder of the year, the fourth quarter and the full year maintains our prudent conservatism, which I think you guys know means if conditions persist as we have experienced them in the quarter and for most of the year, we would expect to outperform the high end of this guidance.

    我們實現了利潤率擴張。在數字進行合理調整後,我們的每股盈餘成長率達到了兩位數。我們非常有信心能夠實現所有這些指標,包括我們 36% 的利潤率目標。我還要指出,我們對今年剩餘時間、第四季和全年的業績指引仍然秉持審慎保守的原則,我想你們都知道,這意味著如果情況像本季度和今年大部分時間一樣持續下去,我們預計業績將超過這一指引的上限。

  • So in terms of the fall through, look, the strong outperformance has given us a chance to continue our product innovation to invest in AI areas like I highlighted. We had a slide on that in the deck, and I talked about how, where AI is really permeating much of our product and some of our new feature functionality for using our new analytics platform.

    所以就跌幅而言,你看,強勁的超額收益給了我們繼續進行產品創新、投資人工智慧領域的機會,就像我強調的那樣。我們在簡報中有一張投影片專門介紹這一點,我談到了人工智慧是如何真正滲透到我們的大部分產品以及我們新的分析平台的一些新功能中的。

  • But additionally, we're growing our go-to-market effort across all of our new product lines because we want to make sure that we can continue to compound the top line at this level going forward. So hopefully, that gives you what you need.

    此外,我們正在加大對所有新產品線的市場推廣力度,因為我們希望確保未來能夠繼續維持目前的營收成長水準。希望這能滿足你的需求。

  • Todd Cello - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Todd Cello - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • I think I heard you talk about '26, Andrew. So let me kind of -- sorry, Jeff, I call you Andrew now too. 2026 as far as how we're thinking about margins, I think our expectations are for what we would characterize to be a solid expansion in '26. So if conditions stay the way that they are revenue growth, plus the remaining savings from our transformation program will allow us to achieve that solid margin expansion while also allowing us to invest back in the business. So just like what Chris just talked through, so that's an important point.

    安德魯,我好像聽你提起過26年的事。所以,讓我稍微解釋一下——抱歉,傑夫,我現在也叫你安德魯。關於2026年的利潤率,我認為我們預期2026年將會出現穩健的成長。因此,如果情況不變,營收成長加上轉型計畫剩餘的節省,將使我們能夠實現穩健的利潤率擴張,同時也能讓我們對業務進行再投資。就像克里斯剛才說的那樣,這一點很重要。

  • Also, we're committed -- just to reiterate a point we made in our prepared remarks to stop the transformation program adjustments. So that will end at the end of 2025. I think it's important to call out here that when we announced that program in November of 2023, we called for that spend to be between $355 million and $375 million. We've managed to that budget, and we've hit our deliverables. So that's been a big focus for us internally.

    另外,我們重申我們在準備好的演講稿中所提出的觀點,即停止轉型計畫的調整。所以這項計畫將在2025年底結束。我認為有必要在此指出,我們在 2023 年 11 月宣布該計劃時,我們要求支出在 3.55 億美元至 3.75 億美元之間。我們既控制了預算,又完成了交付目標。所以這一直是我們內部關注的重點。

  • So really proud of what the team has been able to accomplish there. The other part, when we think about 2026, not forget that we're also planning to reduce our capital expenditures down from about 8% to 6% of revenues. So the margin expansion plus the CapEx coming down to 6% nets us to a 90%-plus free cash flow conversion, which we've had our eyes on since the beginning of this transformation program two years ago.

    我真的為團隊在那裡的成就感到驕傲。另一方面,當我們展望 2026 年時,不要忘記我們還計劃將資本支出從收入的 8% 左右減少到 6%。因此,利潤率的擴張加上資本支出降至 6%,使我們的自由現金流轉換率達到 90% 以上,這是我們自兩年前啟動這項轉型計畫以來一直關注的目標。

  • Christopher Cartwright - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Christopher Cartwright - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, good point.

    是啊,說得對。

  • Jeff Meuler - Analyst

    Jeff Meuler - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Faiza Alwy, Deutsche Bank.

    Faiza Alwy,德意志銀行。

  • Faiza Alwy - Analyst

    Faiza Alwy - Analyst

  • Yes, hi, thank you. Good morning. I wanted to ask about the really strong growth you had in Emerging Verticals. And I'm curious how do you think about the sustainability of that growth? I know you're still guiding to mid-single digits for the year. But was there anything sort of onetime related? And maybe if you can remind us around how much of the business has been related and what you're seeing from a new business perspective here?

    是的,你好,謝謝。早安.我想問一下你們在新興垂直領域的強勁成長情況。我很好奇您如何看待這種成長的可持續性?我知道你仍然預測今年的降幅會在個位數中段。但有沒有發生過類似的事情呢?或許您能提醒我們一下,這項業務有多少是相關的,以及您從新的商業角度看到了什麼?

  • Christopher Cartwright - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Christopher Cartwright - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Thanks for the question. And look, there's nothing anomalous in the third quarter results for Emerging Verticals. There's nothing that is onetime or that you need to make an adjustment for. Obviously, it's been a little bit bumpy in the past couple of years as we've been raising our growth rate and emerging from low single to now high single digits.

    是的。謝謝你的提問。你看,新興垂直產業第三季的業績並沒有什麼異常之處。沒有什麼事情是一次性的,也不需要你做任何調整。顯然,過去幾年我們的發展之路有些坎坷,因為我們一直在提高成長率,從個位數低位成長到現在的個位數高位成長。

  • We've got a stable foundation of revenue performance across almost all the vertical components of emerging. We had to get through some volatility in the tenant employment because of the (inaudible) changes and the like. And the only component, I think, that is not performing right now is public sector, which is relatively small for us, but we used to be able to count on it for low double-digit growth. Dodge kind of interrupted that. Shutdown is probably not going to help.

    我們在新興市場的幾乎所有垂直領域都擁有穩定的營收基礎。由於(聽不清楚)變化等原因,我們必須應對租戶就業方面的一些波動。我認為目前唯一表現不佳的組成部分是公共部門,雖然它對我們來說規模相對較小,但我們過去一直指望它會達到兩位數的低成長率。道奇的出現打斷了這一切。停工可能無濟於事。

  • But there's no reason in the intermediate future with stability that our solutions don't start growing at low double digits again. Now with that said, what's driving the improvements in the growth are, first, insurance. Insurance has been a solid double-digit organic grower for the past couple of years. We're doing exceptionally well there. We've got terrific products, particularly our driver's risk solutions.

    但是,在中期內,只要市場保持穩定,我們的解決方案沒有理由不會再次以兩位數的低成長率成長。綜上所述,推動成長改善的首要因素是保險業。保險業在過去幾年一直保持著兩位數的穩健有機成長。我們在那裡做得非常出色。我們擁有非常棒的產品,特別是我們的駕駛員風險解決方案。

  • And we estimate now with current policy levels that we touch 50% of all policies that are being underwritten in the US. So it's a fantastic and growthful position that will continue. We've also really grown well in our trusted call in our communication solutions. That's, again, a double-digit grower. There's a lot of addressable market ahead of us.

    根據目前的保單水平,我們估計我們觸及了美國所有承保保單的 50%。所以這是一個絕佳且發展前景廣闊的職位,而且還會繼續下去。我們在通訊解決方案方面,透過值得信賴的呼叫系統也取得了長足的發展。這又是一個兩位數成長的股票。我們面前還有很大的潛在市場。

  • There's a lot of opportunity to expand those solutions internationally. And marketing has been reinvigorated. Marketing has been a target for tremendous reinvestment over these past couple of years. We launched our true audience marketing solution. It's now -- we've gone from just dozens and dozens of point solutions into an integrated end-to-end workflow solutions for marketers.

    這些解決方案在國際上有許多推廣的機會。行銷也因此煥發了新的活力。過去幾年,行銷一直是大量再投資的重點領域。我們推出了真正的受眾行銷解決方案。現在,我們已經從數十個零散的解決方案發展成為行銷人員的整合式端到端工作流程解決方案。

  • And our audience data, our onboarding revenues and most importantly, our core identity resolution, which really leads the market are performing exceptionally well. Fraud's contributing investigative solutions, all of them are showing improved revenue performance. So our goal is to get this number up and to really take advantage of some very large and fast-growing markets.

    我們的受眾數據、新用戶註冊收入,以及最重要的核心身分解析(真正領先市場)都表現得非常出色。詐欺調查解決方案均有所貢獻,所有這些解決方案都顯示出收入成長。因此,我們的目標是提高這個數字,並真正利用一些非常龐大且快速成長的市場。

  • Faiza Alwy - Analyst

    Faiza Alwy - Analyst

  • Great, thank you, Chris.

    太好了,謝謝你,克里斯。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Toni Kaplan, Morgan Stanley.

    東尼卡普蘭,摩根士丹利。

  • Toni Kaplan - Analyst

    Toni Kaplan - Analyst

  • Thanks so much. Chris, thanks for going through your AI solutions in the prepared remarks. I was hoping you could talk a little bit more about your proprietary data and particularly how you're positioned in the marketing business, but also across other parts of the business. I think you did a great job, but I just wanted to hear more specifics on that. Thanks.

    非常感謝。克里斯,感謝你在準備好的演講稿中詳細介紹你的人工智慧解決方案。我希望您能多談談您的專有數據,特別是您在行銷業務中的定位,以及其他業務領域的定位。我覺得你做得很好,但我只是想聽聽更具體的細節。謝謝。

  • Christopher Cartwright - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Christopher Cartwright - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Okay, yeah. Well, thanks for the question. And obviously, AI concerns have permeated the info services space over the past couple of months, and there's been a lot of thought about who's positioned to win and who might be vulnerable.

    好的,是的。謝謝你的提問。顯然,在過去的幾個月裡,人工智慧的擔憂已經滲透到資訊服務領域,人們一直在思考誰將勝出,誰又可能處於劣勢。

  • And as I articulated, in the main deck, I mean we feel like TransUnion in the bureaus overall are really positioned to be beneficiaries of AI because of the breadth and the proprietary nature of the data, the broad contributory network and all of the levels of regulation around this information.

    正如我在主講稿中闡述的那樣,我們認為 TransUnion 及其下屬機構整體上確實能夠從人工智慧中受益,因為數據的廣度和專有性、廣泛的貢獻網絡以及圍繞這些資訊的所有監管層面。

  • You simply can't go out and crawl the web and get all of this credit information and then credential all of the customers who consume it and then ensure that those customers are only using it in regulatorily approved ways. That can't happen, right? So we've got this proprietary defensible foundation of information. If you look at the marketing space, I mean, we are gathering information in marketing and fraud from literally tens of thousands of different touch points. Many of them are not publicly accessible.

    你不可能透過網路搜尋獲取所有這些信用訊息,然後對所有使用該資訊的客戶進行身份驗證,並確保這些客戶僅以監管機構批准的方式使用該資訊。那不可能發生,對吧?所以我們擁有了這種專有的、可防禦的資訊基礎。如果你看看行銷領域,我的意思是,我們正在從數萬個不同的接觸點收集行銷和詐欺方面的資訊。其中許多內容不對外開放。

  • And that information, while it's not regulated by the Fair Credit Reporting Act, it is regulated by the driver's Privacy Protection Act by GLB regulations overall. Again, there are regulatory hurdles or moats, protections around this data. And then our solutions not only take that foundation of data, but they combine all of the exhaust we get from providing marketing, in particular, audience activation and measurement services to the space, and they incorporate that back into the data foundation.

    雖然這些資訊不受《公平信用報告法》的監管,但總體而言,它受到《駕駛員隱私保護法》和《GLB 法規》的監管。同樣,這些數據也存在監管障礙或保護屏障。然後,我們的解決方案不僅以這些數據為基礎,而且還結合了我們從提供行銷服務(特別是受眾激活和衡量服務)中獲得的所有數據,並將這些數據重新整合到數據基礎中。

  • So there's a bit of a network effect that enriches our marketing data and our fraud data that makes it hugely defensible. Now as we build AI on top of that foundation, as we move from advanced machine learning to more AI and generative techniques, it gives us an incremental growth opportunity because, look, the analytics and the insights that consumers drive from our data that leads them to take actions.

    因此,這產生了一種網路效應,豐富了我們的行銷數據和詐欺數據,使其具有極大的防禦能力。現在,隨著我們在此基礎上建立人工智慧,隨著我們從高級機器學習轉向更多的人工智慧和生成技術,這為我們帶來了漸進式的成長機會,因為你看,消費者從我們的數據中獲得的分析和洞察,會引導他們採取行動。

  • A lot of those actions are embedded in software applications upstream decisioning and other workflow applications. Increasingly, the AI agents that we're going to build are going to erode the value of the upstream software applications. And so over time, our business and as you look across our industry, we are going to evolve into integrated workflow platforms driven by proprietary data and analytics. So we strongly believe that AI represents a massive growth unlock for the business and it's just going to take some time for the market to understand this and then recognize it.

    這些操作大多嵌入在上游決策和其他工作流程應用程式的軟體應用程式中。我們即將建置的人工智慧代理將日益削弱上游軟體應用程式的價值。因此,隨著時間的推移,我們的業務以及整個行業都將發展成為由專有數據和分析驅動的整合工作流程平台。因此我們堅信,人工智慧將為企業帶來巨大的成長潛力,只是市場需要一些時間來理解和認識到這一點。

  • Toni Kaplan - Analyst

    Toni Kaplan - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Manav Patnaik, Barclays.

    馬納夫·帕特奈克,巴克萊銀行。

  • Manav Patnaik - Analyst

    Manav Patnaik - Analyst

  • Thank you. Chris, I just want to follow up on that last statement you made. I think, yes, the market will take some time to appreciate it. But is it also because it's going to take you guys sometimes to actually show that benefit in the revenue line item? And then maybe to add, just on the cost side, does that help? When can we start seeing that help your margin flow through?

    謝謝。克里斯,我只是想就你上次說的話補充一點。我認為,是的,市場需要一些時間來理解它。但這是否也因為你們有時需要一些時間才能在收入明細中真正體現出這種利益呢?那麼,從成本方面來看,這樣做是否有幫助呢?我們什麼時候才能開始看到利潤率提升的效果?

  • Christopher Cartwright - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Christopher Cartwright - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Look, fair question, Manav. I mean, look, we've raised our guidance for the fourth quarter, but we didn't do it based on anticipated new AI revenues, right? And so if your perspective is the next quarter, it's going to take a little bit of time. In the intermediate term, you're going to start to see increases in wins and retentions and pricing power increases and absolute new categories of revenue developed quarter-by-quarter as we begin to utilize AI across the product suite.

    是的。你看,這個問題問得好,馬納夫。我的意思是,你看,我們提高了第四季度的業績預期,但我們並不是基於對人工智慧新收入的預期而提高的,對吧?因此,如果你著眼於下一個季度,那就需要一些時間。從中長期來看,隨著我們開始在整個產品套件中使用人工智慧,您將會看到成交量和客戶留存率的提高、定價能力的增強,以及每季都會出現全新的收入類別。

  • The other thing I would say is, look, internally, we're using AI to automate a lot of our customer service operations and our dispute resolution operations. We have thousands and thousands of people that service consumers around the world who have questions or concerns about their credit or the scores being calculated based on it. We can do a better job servicing those consumers with AI-enriched processes, and we're investing a lot to make that happen. And so I think that's going to allow us to continually improve service at much greater productivity over time that will be a net positive to our margins going forward.

    我想說的另一點是,在公司內部,我們正在使用人工智慧來自動化許多客戶服務營運和糾紛解決營運。我們有成千上萬的員工為世界各地的消費者提供服務,解答他們關於信用或基於信用計算的評分方面的問題或疑慮。我們可以透過人工智慧增強的流程來更好地服務這些消費者,我們正在投入大量資金來實現這一目標。因此,我認為這將使我們能夠隨著時間的推移不斷提高服務質量,並實現更高的生產效率,這將對我們的未來利潤率產生積極影響。

  • Manav Patnaik - Analyst

    Manav Patnaik - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ashish Sabadra, RBC Capital Markets.

    Ashish Sabadra,加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

  • Ashish Sabadra - Analyst

    Ashish Sabadra - Analyst

  • Thanks for taking my question and congrats on such solid results. I just wanted to ask a few questions on mortgage, questions that we're getting a lot from investors. First one was just around mortgage. Is there opportunity for you to continue to raise prices on your data file even in a FICO direct license model?

    感謝您回答我的問題,並祝賀您取得如此優異的成績。我只是想問幾個關於抵押貸款的問題,我們經常從投資者那裡收到。第一個問題只是關於抵押貸款的。即使在 FICO 直接授權模式下,您是否還有機會繼續提高資料檔案的價格?

  • Second is just some concerns around B2B. Have you heard anything on that front? And third would be just on the trigger marketing regulation. Could that have any impact to your revenues going forward? Thanks again.

    其次,我對B2B方面有一些擔憂。你那邊有什麼消息嗎?第三點是關於觸發式行銷監管。這是否會對您未來的收入產生影響?再次感謝。

  • Christopher Cartwright - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Christopher Cartwright - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Ashish, could you -- I didn't hear your -- the second component of your question. The first is the change -- the competition and the changes in the distribution model and go-forward pricing power. And the third is about triggers. What was the second?

    阿什什,你能──我沒聽清楚你的──你問題的第二個部分嗎?首先是變化-競爭以及分銷模式和未來定價權的變化。第三點是關於觸發因素。第二個是什麼?

  • Ashish Sabadra - Analyst

    Ashish Sabadra - Analyst

  • It's just the three bureau to two bureau, is there any potential risk there? Thank you.

    只是從三個局變成兩個局,這是否有潛在風險?謝謝。

  • Christopher Cartwright - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Christopher Cartwright - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Okay. Look, we've got our mortgage team at the Mortgage Bankers Association meeting, which has been going on Sunday. We've had a ton of client interactions. All three bureaus have had their representatives on stage talking about their new integrated mortgage offerings to counter this latest and very aggressive price increase by FICO. I think you have to just stop for a second and realize that four years ago, the FICO score cost I think it was $0.62. Today, we're talking $10.

    好的。你看,我們的抵押貸款團隊正在參加抵押貸款銀行家協會的會議,會議從週日開始。我們與客戶進行了大量的互動。為了回應 FICO 最新且非常激進的漲價,三大信用評級機構都派出了代表上台,討論他們新推出的綜合抵押貸款產品。我認為你應該停下來想一想,四年前,FICO 信用評分的價格好像是 0.62 美元。而現在,價格已經漲到 10 美元了。

  • And so resellers and lenders are really frustrated by the aggressive price increases that have been put through and put through on the eve of competition for the first time in 30 years in score pricing. Now what we have put forward is a superior score in the Vantage 4.0 that is materially discounted against the incumbent score.

    因此,經銷商和貸款機構對30年來首次在信用評分定價方面展開的激烈價格上漲感到非常沮喪,而這種上漲恰恰發生在競爭的前夕。現在我們提出的方案在 Vantage 4.0 中獲得了更高的分數,與現有分數相比,該分數有顯著的折扣。

  • It's a better score because it leverages trended data. It's going to allow us to score 30 million-plus consumers that were previously unscorable, meaning that they couldn't qualify for a GSE mortgage because we were using a score that was point in time data and not trended data and trended data has been the standard for a decade in the mortgage industry. right?

    因為它利用了趨勢數據,所以得分更高。這將使我們能夠對先前無法評分的3000多萬消費者進行評分,這意味著他們之前無法獲得政府支持企業(GSE)的抵押貸款資格,因為我們之前使用的評分是基於特定時間點的數據,而不是趨勢數據。而趨勢數據在過去十年一直是抵押貸款行業的標準,對吧?

  • So there's been a real lack of innovation in that regard. So we're putting forth the score. It will allow us to unlock the power of our trended data and alternative data. We estimate 5 million to 6 million more Americans will qualify for GSE-sponsored mortgages going forward. And there is value there that I think TransUnion and the other bureaus will be able to capture while still saving the industry an enormous amount of cost, right? And so the industry is looking for this opportunity.

    所以,這方面確實缺乏創新。所以我們現在公佈比數。這將使我們能夠釋放趨勢數據和另類數據的力量。我們估計未來將有 500 萬至 600 萬美國人符合獲得 GSE 擔保抵押貸款的資格。我認為 TransUnion 和其他信用機構能夠從中獲取價值,同時也能為產業節省大量成本,對吧?因此,業界正在尋找這樣的機會。

  • Now look, for 30 years, the industry has not had choice. And so much of it is calibrated to the FICO classic score. But the industry is hungering for change. They want greater financial inclusion because that means more customers for them to make loans to. The GSEs care about financial inclusion, and they also care about safety and soundness. And for 10 years, they've insisted upon trended data from the bureaus because they know it works better, right?

    你看,30年來,這個產業別無選擇。而且很多指標都與 FICO 經典評分掛鉤。但業界渴望改變。他們希望提高金融包容性,因為這意味著他們可以向更多的客戶發放貸款。政府支持企業既關心金融包容性,也關心安全性和穩健性。10 年來,他們一直堅持使用各機構的趨勢數據,因為他們知道這樣效果更好,對吧?

  • So now the stars are aligning to really support what I think will be a material share shift over time. Yes, it's going to take some time to warm up the engine. But look, we have already helped a number of clients move off of the FICO score. Synchrony moved to VantageScore for underwriting their card portfolios some years ago. They wrote a white paper on how to do it.

    所以現在各種因素都在朝著我認為會隨著時間推移而發生的實質市場份額轉變的方向發展。是的,引擎需要一些時間來預熱。但是,我們已經幫助許多客戶擺脫了 FICO 信用評分的束縛。Synchrony幾年前就將其信用卡組合的承保系統更換為VantageScore。他們寫了一份白皮書,闡述如何做到這一點。

  • They've had kitchens on how to do it. They securitize those mortgages. Community financial institutions have been under the vice of FICO price increases. They hold a lot of their mortgages on their books. We have been converting many of them over to the Vantage 4 and trended data for years, okay?

    他們已經向廚房學習過如何操作。他們將這些抵押貸款證券化。社區金融機構一直飽受FICO價格上漲的困擾。他們的帳面上有很多抵押貸款。多年來,我們一直在將其中許多數據轉換為 Vantage 4 格式並進行趨勢分析,好嗎?

  • So it's not like this can't happen. I think the industry is awakening to the opportunity. I think the entire EV industry is going to start experimenting with this. And I think over time, you're going to see material share shift to Vantage because it works better and it unlocks trended data and the industry is set up with the price increases. So that's the first point.

    所以,這並非不可能發生。我認為業界正在意識到這個機會。我認為整個電動車產業都將開始嘗試這種方法。我認為隨著時間的推移,你會看到材料份額轉移到 Vantage,因為它運行得更好,可以解鎖趨勢數據,而且行業已經做好了價格上漲的準備。這是第一點。

  • Now triggers, we've essentially been out of the triggers business for years, right? And so we're not impacted by the changes in regulation or legislation. And look, in terms of the tri-merge, the tri-merge is an important part of the safety and the security of the mortgage lending system in the US. We have proven it out empirically neutral third parties like S&P have analyzed this. And what they've observed is that in recent years, the three bureau files have started to diverge in terms of their data content. This era of accelerating alternative data on the credit files is just going to lead to further divergence.

    至於觸發器,我們基本上已經退出觸發器業務多年了,對吧?因此,我們不會受到法規或立法變化的影響。而且,就三方合併而言,三方合併是美國抵押貸款系統安全保障的重要組成部分。我們已經透過實證研究證明了這一點,像標普這樣的中立第三方機構也對此進行了分析。他們觀察到,近年來,這三個局的文件在數據內容方面開始出現分歧。信用檔案中替代資料加速湧現的時代,只會導致進一步的分化。

  • If you don't pull three files, the chances are you're not going to qualify somebody who could be qualified. It's a misrevenue opportunity. You're also not going to assess the risk as well as you will if you pull three files. And you may end up charging people more on a very large and long-duration credit and that higher rate is going to come down to a massive increase in the interest that a consumer pays. So for a very small cost in the context of this larger transaction, you get greater financial inclusion, greater profitability and greater safety and soundness.

    如果你不調取三個文件,很可能你就無法篩選出符合資格的人。這是一個錯失收入的機會。如果你只提取三個文件,你也無法很好地評估風險。最終,你可能會對金額龐大、期限很長的貸款收取更高的利率,而更高的利率最終會導致消費者支付的利息大幅增加。因此,在這筆更大的交易中,只需付出很小的成本,就能獲得更大的金融包容性、更高的獲利能力以及更高的安全性和穩健性。

  • So for all of those reasons, which the FHFA understands very well and there's an enormous amount of support on Capitol Hill for the Tri-Merge. I don't see any changes coming on that horizon.

    因此,基於所有這些原因(FHFA 非常清楚這些原因),而且國會山莊對三方合併也給予了極大的支持。我認為這方面近期不會有任何改變。

  • Ashish Sabadra - Analyst

    Ashish Sabadra - Analyst

  • Very helpful, sir. Thank you very much.

    先生,您幫了我很大的忙。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Wurtzel, Wolfe Research.

    Scott Wurtzel,Wolfe Research。

  • Scott Wurtzel - Analyst

    Scott Wurtzel - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning guys, and thank you for taking my question. Just wanted to go back to maybe some of the trends you're seeing on the fintech lender side. It sounds like during the quarter itself, trends were pretty stable. But just given some of the noise that we've heard around subprime credit anything. Just wondering if you can maybe talk about some of the trends you've seen since kind of the end of September, early October on that side of the business. Thank you.

    嘿,各位早安,感謝你們回答我的問題。我想再談談您在金融科技貸款機構方面看到的一些趨勢。聽起來本季整體趨勢相當穩定。但考慮到我們最近聽到的一些關於次貸危機的負面消息。我想問您能否談談從九月底到十月初,您在業務方面觀察到的一些趨勢。謝謝。

  • Christopher Cartwright - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Christopher Cartwright - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, look, let me pull back to (inaudible) and just talk about the overall market conditions that we're seeing in the health of the market. I mean look, the broader context is coming out of COVID and coming out of this year of really cheap money in the US. In '22 and '23, we had to deal with declining volumes. In '24 and '25, we've largely had stable but muted lending levels. All lending categories are below the long-term trend.

    好吧,聽著,讓我先回到(聽不清楚)這裡,談談我們目前看到的整體市場狀況以及市場健康狀況。我的意思是,你看,更廣泛的背景是新冠疫情之後,以及今年美國資金非常低的時期。2022年和2023年,我們不得不應對銷量下滑的問題。2024年和2025年,貸款水準整體維持穩定但較為溫和。所有貸款類別均低於長期趨勢。

  • Mortgage lending is dramatically below the long-term trends. It's back to mid-90s levels. Now I think we're in a period of stable to improving loan volumes. I mean if you look at our results, 11% organic growth and with 13% in US markets alone reflects really good volumes.

    抵押貸款規模遠低於長期趨勢水準。又回到了90年代中期的水準。我認為我們正處於貸款量穩定成長的時期。我的意思是,如果你看看我們的業績,11% 的有機成長率,光是美國市場就達到了 13%,這反映出銷量確實非常可觀。

  • Now we're not back to the long-term trend lines. But when I look at my daily volume reports across all categories, I see material volume increases. Part of that is because of the soundness of the market. So it's macro driven, but a lot of it is based on our commercial success, right? And the wins that we're racking up in market and the dramatic performance improvements in our subprime oriented credit scores, right, the FactorTrust scores.

    現在我們還沒有回到長期趨勢線。但是,當我查看所有類別的每日銷售報告時,我發現物料銷量增加。部分原因是市場運作良好。所以,雖然是宏觀驅動的,但很多時候都取決於我們的商業成功,對吧?我們在市場上取得的勝利,以及我們針對次級貸款的信用評分(即 FactorTrust 評分)的顯著績效提升。

  • So we're doing really well there, and we see a market that's got decent GDP growth, lowering interest rates, a lot of stability in delinquencies. We have looked really hard here at the nominal debt levels of consumers of all risk tiers. I'm looking at their current levels back to 2019. You see in the media a lot of concern about the nominal increases in consumer leverage. But when you adjust that for inflation and you adjust it for the substantial wage gains, particularly that lower income Americans have enjoyed over this period.

    所以我們在那裡做得非常好,我們看到市場GDP成長良好,利率下降,違約率也相當穩定。我們已經仔細研究了各個風險等級消費者的名目債務水準。我正在查看他們自 2019 年以來的當前水平。媒體上有很多關於消費者槓桿率名目成長的擔憂。但當你考慮到通貨膨脹以及在此期間低收入美國人所享受的大幅工資增長進行調整時,情況就不同了。

  • Their net indebtedness in '25 looks pretty much the same as 2019. And I think the banks confirm this. I mean we just had a round of bank reporting. All the results for the industry are quite solid. Lending volumes are increasing. And practically, no one took any increase in their bad debt reserves, right?

    他們在 2025 年的淨負債情況與 2019 年基本相同。我認為銀行方面也證實了這一點。我的意思是,我們剛剛完成了一輪銀行報告。整個產業的各項數據都相當穩健。貸款規模正在增加。實際上,沒有人增加壞帳準備金,對吧?

  • So the industry feels good about the condition of the market and the industry feels good about the condition and lendability of the consumer. Now at the lower end in subprime, I mean, look, go back over the last eight quarters, as I to do a media search for you. In every quarter, somebody is talking about instability and subprime, rising delinquencies, et cetera, et cetera. And despite those concerns, some of which are legitimate, we have managed to post market-leading growth in every quarter, right?

    因此,業界對市場狀況感到滿意,對消費者的狀況和貸款能力也感到滿意。現在來看次貸危機的低階部分,我的意思是,你看,回顧過去八個季度,我幫你做個媒體調查。每個季度都有人談論不穩定和次貸危機、違約率上升等等。儘管存在這些擔憂(其中一些擔憂不無道理),但我們每季都實現了市場領先的成長,對吧?

  • So clearly, our foundation for growth is very broad-based across all risk per in the US. The portfolio is really representative of the broader lending ecosystem. It's not skewed towards subprime. If it were, we wouldn't have been able to outgrow the market for the past eight quarters. So those are my thoughts on that topic.

    因此很明顯,我們的成長基礎非常廣泛,涵蓋了美國所有風險領域。該投資組合確實代表了更廣泛的貸款生態系統。它並不偏向次貸。如果真是那樣,我們過去八個季度就無法超越市場成長了。以上就是我對這個主題的看法。

  • Scott Wurtzel - Analyst

    Scott Wurtzel - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Craig Huber, Huber Research Partners.

    Craig Huber,Huber Research Partners。

  • Craig Huber - Equity Analyst

    Craig Huber - Equity Analyst

  • Yeah, hi, good morning, thank you. My understanding is out there, the VantageScore has about 5% market share in autos, credit cards, personal loans, et cetera. Obviously, on the nonconforming part of mortgages, I believe it's basically negligible kind of nonconforming piece. When we think about the pricing you guys have come out with for VantageScore for mortgages of $4 you just announced recently (inaudible) obviously came out at $4.50 a price.

    是的,你好,早安,謝謝。據我了解,VantageScore 在汽車、信用卡、個人貸款等領域的市佔率約為 5%。顯然,就抵押貸款的非正規部分而言,我認為這基本上是微不足道的非正規部分。當我們想到你們最近宣布的 VantageScore 抵押貸款定價(聽不清楚),顯然是 4.50 美元。

  • And then you talk about it versus $10 per FICO score, that is a huge cost savings. I can see an argument there. But obviously, FICO has a second model out there, right, a brand-new one at $5, but then it's a $33 fee on the back end if the mortgage closes. All this stuff, of course, gets paid by the consumer.

    然後你再想想,如果把它和每次 FICO 評分 10 美元相比,那可是節省一大筆錢啊。我覺得這其中有道理。但顯然,FICO 還有第二個模型,對吧,一個全新的模型,售價 5 美元,但如果抵押貸款最終成交,則需支付 33 美元的手續費。當然,所有這些東西最終都是由消費者買單的。

  • So if I'm the lender -- if I'm the lender here, I'm going to be much more likely to go with the [dollar] option for FICO and then the $33 on the back end that the consumer pays for all that correct, on the lender. So I'm -- in my mind, I'm comparing your $4 number to $5. Am I wrong on that? And also if you could comment on the 5% market share.

    所以如果我是貸款方——如果我是這裡的貸款方,我更有可能選擇 FICO 的 [美元] 選項,然後消費者在後端支付 33 美元,對吧,貸款方支付這筆費用。所以,我心裡是在比較你的 4 美元和 5 美元。我理解錯了嗎?另外,您能否就5%的市佔率發表一下看法?

  • Christopher Cartwright - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Christopher Cartwright - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. Well, look, the market share is low in these other areas. But I think that's derived in large part to the monopoly positioning in mortgage. And of course, for FICO, the profitability of the business has driven disproportionately out of mortgage where the pricing is high. And I think now that all of these resellers are being forced to do the analytics behind the VantageScore and conversion, it just creates a very ripe opportunity for share shift. And I think that's how it's going to play out over time.

    是的。你看,在其他這些領域,市佔率很低。但我認為這很大程度源自於抵押貸款領域的壟斷地位。當然,對於 FICO 來說,業務盈利能力已經不成比例地從定價較高的抵押貸款領域轉移出去。我認為,現在所有這些經銷商都被迫進行 VantageScore 和轉換率背後的分析,這為市場份額的轉移創造了一個非常好的機會。我認為隨著時間的推移,事情會朝著這個方向發展。

  • Now in terms of the success-based model or the booked fee model, and in terms of shifting the calculation of the FICO score via the direct approach. I think that the resellers and the lenders, but particularly the resellers are just starting to understand the complication with administering the model. It comes with a blizzard of complexity, right? The first is just the accuracy of the calculations themselves.

    現在,就基於成功的模式或預訂費用模式而言,以及透過直接方法改變 FICO 評分的計算方式而言。我認為經銷商和貸款機構,尤其是經銷商,才剛開始了解管理這種模式的複雜性。它確實非常複雜,對吧?首先是計算本身的準確性。

  • As we've seen in the industry, sometimes there are errors. And when there are errors, the question will be, who's responsible for that error. Secondly, today, none of the resellers are agents of the bureau. That's a status that's very difficult to attain. You have to have considerable cybersecurity investments in scrutiny.

    正如我們在業界所看到的,有時會出現錯誤。如果出現錯誤,問題就變成了:誰該為這個錯誤負責?其次,如今所有經銷商都不是該局的代理商。那是一種很難達到的地位。你必須在網路安全方面投入大量資金進行審查。

  • And they've simply been consumers of the data and the output of the score calculation that we provide and then they pass the three of them on to the GSEs or to their lending customers, right? Well, now they're going to have to increase their cybersecurity investments. They're going to have to increase their personnel investments to support potentially consumer dispute inquiries and the legal and the regulatory liability that they're going to have to assume is considerable.

    他們只是我們所提供的數據和評分計算結果的消費者,然後他們把這三者傳遞給政府支持企業或他們的貸款客戶,對吧?看來他們現在必須增加網路安全的投入了。他們將不得不增加人員投入,以應對可能出現的消費者糾紛調查,而且他們將要承擔的法律和監管責任也相當大。

  • I don't think that any of that was really understood at the initial press release. But based on the feedback that we're getting from the MBA, the resellers are now understanding that, and they really -- they don't really know how to handle that because it is really quite complicated and it is fraught with a number of challenges that can have significant financial consequences.

    我認為最初的新聞稿並沒有真正傳達出這些訊息。但根據我們從MBA得到的回饋,經銷商現在明白了這一點,但他們真的不知道該如何處理,因為這確實很複雜,而且充滿了許多挑戰,可能會造成重大的財務後果。

  • Craig Huber - Equity Analyst

    Craig Huber - Equity Analyst

  • From your perspective, in 2026, are you viewing that the change that FICO have done for their pricing in the marketplace? From your perspective, given the change of your own pricing, et cetera, that you will be -- it will be neutral to you. In essence, you're raising the price on your credit file for mortgages basically to make up the lost FICO revenue and profit. Am I thinking about that correctly?

    從您的角度來看,到 2026 年,您認為 FICO 在市場定價方面所做的改變會如何?從你的角度來看,考慮到你自己的定價等因素的變化,這對你來說將是中性的。從本質上講,你提高抵押貸款信用記錄的價格,主要是為了彌補損失的 FICO 收入和利潤。我這樣想對嗎?

  • Christopher Cartwright - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Christopher Cartwright - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Look, yes, look, the measures that we have taken around our mortgage offerings in total actually hold the cost of the credit and the services that we provide related to credit constant between the years, right? And so we expect that we're going to protect our revenue and our profits regardless of who's calculating the FICO score and regardless of which model they choose, right? And then from there, I think we will have revenue growth and margin enhancement as we start to take share from FICO Classic.

    是的,我們圍繞抵押貸款產品所採取的措施,實際上使信貸成本以及我們提供的與信貸相關的服務成本在各年間保持不變,對吧?因此,我們預計無論誰來計算 FICO 評分,無論他們選擇哪種模型,我們都能保護我們的收入和利潤,對吧?然後,我認為隨著我們開始從 FICO Classic 手中奪取市場份額,我們將實現收入成長和利潤率提升。

  • Craig Huber - Equity Analyst

    Craig Huber - Equity Analyst

  • So again, I'm sorry, in '26 then you don't think from an EBITDA basis, the changes that FICO put in place here are going to change your outlook for next year?

    所以,我再次抱歉,您認為從 EBITDA 的角度來看,FICO 在這裡實施的變革不會改變您對 2026 年的預期嗎?

  • Christopher Cartwright - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Christopher Cartwright - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • That is correct.

    沒錯。

  • Craig Huber - Equity Analyst

    Craig Huber - Equity Analyst

  • Okay, thank you very much.

    好的,非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andrew Nicholas, William Blair.

    安德魯·尼古拉斯,威廉·布萊爾。

  • Tom Roesch - Analyst

    Tom Roesch - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. This is Tom Ross on for Andrew Nicholas. I wanted to touch on the trajectory of India growth. I think fourth quarter, you're expecting to exit the year in the high teens growth. I was curious when you -- what you're thinking about like getting back to that rate, could you see it happening next year? And then relatedly, it sounds like it's tarmac was on the commercial lending part of the business. So I was wondering how consumer lending within India track relative to your expectations in the quarter? Thank you.

    您好,早安。這裡是湯姆·羅斯,替安德魯·尼古拉斯為您報道。我想談談印度的成長軌跡。我認為第四季度,預計全年成長率將達到兩位數以上。我很好奇,你覺得恢復到之前的成長速度怎麼樣?你覺得明年能實現嗎?此外,聽起來它的停機坪似乎與商業貸款業務有關。所以我想知道,本季印度消費信貸的成長情況與您預期相比如何?謝謝。

  • Christopher Cartwright - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Christopher Cartwright - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Well, look, the India situation is very fluid because we're in the middle geopolitically of intense negotiations around tariff and trade terms. And we were very much pivoting back toward high teens growth in India in the fourth quarter when things went a little bit sour in the US imposed a 50% tariff on all imports coming from India.

    你看,印度的局勢非常不穩定,因為我們正處於圍繞關稅和貿易條款的激烈地緣政治談判的中心。第四季度,我們在印度的經濟成長正朝著兩位數以上的成長目標穩步邁進,但美國對所有來自印度的進口商品徵收 50% 的關稅,導致情況急轉直下。

  • Now the challenge there is that a good portion of the economy, about 30% is driven by micro, small and medium businesses, very entrepreneurially driven that are also export dependent. And so with this additional cloud hanging over, the banks have slowed lending to that segment, which has flowed through in the form of lower volumes to our leading bureau there, civil, right?

    現在的挑戰是,經濟的很大一部分(約 30%)是由微型、小型和中型企業驅動的,這些企業非常具有創業精神,並且依賴出口。因此,由於這額外的陰雲籠罩,銀行放慢了對該領域的貸款速度,這導致我們在該領域的主要機構——民用金融——的交易量下降,對吧?

  • Now again, things change pretty quickly in these trade negotiations could be here a month from now with stability restored and lending volumes increasing. But what we do know is that India continues to be an awesome market. They've got 7% GDP growth, then we've got inflation down to 3%. They have a central bank, the RBI, that is growth-oriented, that has been enabling fintechs that support unsecured retail lenders to resume their operations, which was driving more volume. They've been cutting rates.

    不過,貿易談判情勢瞬息萬變,一個月後局勢可能會恢復穩定,貸款規模也會增加。但我們確信的是,印度仍然是一個非常棒的市場。他們的 GDP 成長率為 7%,而我們的通貨膨脹率降至 3%。他們擁有一個以成長為導向的中央銀行——印度儲備銀行(RBI),該銀行一直在幫助支持無擔保零售貸款機構的金融科技公司恢復運營,從而推動了交易量的成長。他們一直在降低利率。

  • So all the macro factors are aligning for a resumption of terrific growth coming out of one of the largest and most attractive markets on the planet. But we have hit a speed bump here with the 50% tariff, and we're just going to have to wait until that gets resolved. I'm confident it will resolve. I think the US and India are natural partners, and there's a tremendous amount of trade that we'll do.

    因此,所有宏觀因素都朝著全球最大、最具吸引力的市場之一恢復強勁成長的方向發展。但是,由於 50% 的關稅問題,我們遇到了阻礙,只能等待這個問題解決。我相信這個問題會得到解決。我認為美國和印度是天然的合作夥伴,我們將進行大量的貿易。

  • But things do get heated in the course of negotiations. And so that has delayed the full recovery of that market a bit. I'd say the other bright spot in India is that, I mean, look, we have 40% exposure to consumer credit. We're growing in all of our other categories. And we recently launched our analytics platform, TruIQ analytics in India with a lot of interest from major bank clients and I think it's a whole new vector of growth that will both help us defend the massive market share that we have and then generate new revenues additionally.

    但談判過程中難免會變得激烈。因此,這在一定程度上延緩了該市場的全面復甦。我認為印度的另一個亮點是,你看,我們40%的業務都集中在消費信貸領域。我們在其他所有類別中都實現了成長。我們最近在印度推出了分析平台 TruIQ 分析,受到了各大銀行客戶的極大關注。我認為這將是一個全新的成長方向,不僅有助於我們捍衛現有的龐大市場份額,還能帶來新的收入。

  • Todd Cello - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Todd Cello - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Hey Tom, I'm going to add on to that. Hopefully, what you're hearing from Chris is the -- just the conviction that we have in the India business and the runway that's ahead for us. You got to think about this longer term, but when we take a step back and we think about just the overall portfolio of TransUnion in the businesses that we have and how diverse they are. I just want to call out, while India is very important to us, it does represent only about 7% of our total revenues.

    嘿,湯姆,我還要補充一點。希望你們從克里斯那裡聽到的,正是我們對印度業務的信心,以及我們未來的發展前景。你必須從長遠角度考慮這個問題,但當我們退後一步,想想 TransUnion 的整體業務組合以及它們的多元化程度時,就會發現這一點。我想指出的是,雖然印度對我們非常重要,但它只占我們總收入的7%左右。

  • And what's important to talk about that balance of the portfolio is if you go back to '22 and '23, when the more developed markets of the US, the UK and Canada were in a slowdown because of high inflation and rising interest rates, India business was growing in the 30% range. So right now, there's some things going on in their market that Chris just articulated. So that revenue is down to 5%.

    談到投資組合的平衡,重要的是要回顧 2022 年和 2023 年,當時美國、英國和加拿大等較發達市場由於高通膨和利率上升而放緩,而印度業務的增長率卻達到了 30% 左右。所以現在,他們的市場正在發生一些事情,正如克里斯剛才所闡述的那樣。所以這部分收入下降到了5%。

  • But if you look across the portfolio, now markets like Canada and the UK are leading international growth 11% in the third quarter. And despite all of noise with India, we continue to deliver high single-digit revenue growth with India clearly below trend and our long-term aspirations.

    但縱觀整個投資組合,加拿大和英國等市場目前引領國際成長,第三季成長了 11%。儘管印度市場存在許多爭議,但我們仍然實現了接近兩位數的收入成長,而印度市場的成長則明顯低於趨勢和我們的長期目標。

  • Christopher Cartwright - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Christopher Cartwright - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. In addition to that, I mean, as I outlined in my concluding remarks, there's a number of places in the portfolio where we think we will boost our growth rate based on all the product innovation and based on expanded go-to-market investments. And I would put marketing, fraud, communications, analytics across credit marketing and fraud. I think investigative solutions has got a lot of juice. Of course, India's upside, of course, mortgage is upside.

    是的。除此之外,正如我在總結發言中概述的那樣,我們認為,在投資組合中有很多領域,我們將基於所有產品創新和擴大市場推廣投資來提高成長率。我會把行銷、詐欺、溝通、分析等因素納入信用行銷和詐欺的範疇。我認為調查性解決方案很有潛力。當然,印度的優勢在於,房貸的優勢顯而易見。

  • And let's not forget the consumer business. We've made massive investments to remediate the consumer business. They're starting to bear fruit. Our intermediate goal is to get that back to a mid-single-digit compounder. I feel like we're on the way there. So I mean if you like 11% in market-leading growth, understand that it's on a stable consumer lending foundation today, and there's upside from that, given all of the product innovations in all of those different market areas that I just outlined.

    我們也不能忘記消費者業務。我們已投入大量資金來改善消費者業務。它們開始結出果實了。我們的中期目標是使該指數恢復到個位數的複合成長率。我覺得我們正在朝著目標前進。所以我的意思是,如果你喜歡 11% 的市場領先成長率,要知道它目前建立在穩定的消費信貸基礎之上,而且考慮到我剛才概述的所有不同市場領域的產品創新,它還有上升空間。

  • And I think, again, it's important to emphasize that this is a global portfolio. At any point in time, we're going to have strength and weaknesses across it. And if you look at the consistency of our results over the past five years, the worst we've ever done is grow in line with market. But for the most part, we outperform the growth rates in the market. So I think this portfolio is much less risky and far more durable than is currently understood.

    而且我認為,再次強調這一點很重要,這是一個全球投資組合。任何時候,我們都會在各方面既有優勢也有劣勢。如果你看看我們過去五年的業績穩定性,我們最差的成績只是與市場同步成長。但整體而言,我們的成長率高於市場平均。所以我認為,這個投資組合的風險比目前人們所理解的要低得多,也更持久得多。

  • Gregory Bardi - Vice President of Investor Relations

    Gregory Bardi - Vice President of Investor Relations

  • All right. Thanks, Chris, Todd. I think that's a good place to end. Thanks for all your questions today, and have a great rest of your day.

    好的。謝謝,克里斯,托德。我覺得到此為止比較合適。感謝大家今天提出的所有問題,祝您今天餘下的時間過得愉快。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

    會議已經結束。感謝各位參加今天的報告會。您現在可以斷開連線了。