TransUnion (TRU) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the TransUnion 2024 fourth quarter earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

早上好，歡迎參加 TransUnion 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在記錄中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Greg Bardi, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Greg Bardi。請繼續。

Good morning, and thank you for attending today. Joining me on the call are Chris Cartwright, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Todd Cello, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We posted our earnings release and slides to accompany this call on the TransUnion Investor Relations website this morning, and they can also be found in the current report on Form 8-K that we filed this morning.

早安，感謝您今天的出席。參加電話會議的還有總裁兼執行長 Chris Cartwright；以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Todd Cello。我們今天早上在 TransUnion 投資者關係網站上發布了與本次電話會議配套的收益報告和幻燈片，這些也可以在我們今天早上提交的 8-K 表當前報告中找到。

Our earnings release and the accompanying slides include various schedules, which contain more detailed information about revenue, operating expenses and other items as well as certain non-GAAP disclosures and financial measures along with the corresponding reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures. Today's call will be recorded, and a replay will be available on our website.

我們的收益報告和隨附的幻燈片包括各種附表，其中包含有關收入、營運費用和其他項目以及某些非 GAAP 披露和財務指標的更詳細信息，以及這些非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比的 GAAP 指標的相應對帳。今天的電話會議將被錄音，重播將在我們的網站上提供。

We will also be making statements during this call that are forward-looking. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements because of factors discussed in today's earnings release and the comments made during this conference call and in our most recent Form 10-K, Forms 10-Q and other reports and filings with the SEC. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statement.

我們也將在本次電話會議中發表前瞻性聲明。這些聲明是基於目前的預期和假設，並受風險和不確定性的影響。由於今天的收益報告中討論的因素以及本次電話會議中以及我們最近的 10-K 表、10-Q 表和其他向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告和文件中所發表的評論，實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中描述的結果存在重大差異。我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性聲明的責任。

With that, let me turn it over to Chris.

現在，讓我把話題交給克里斯。

Thanks, Greg. Let me add my welcome and share our agenda for the call this morning. First, I'll provide the financial highlights of our fourth quarter 2024 results and recap our progress against our strategic initiatives throughout the year. Second, I'll discuss how we're building upon that momentum with our 2025 strategic priorities. Finally, Todd will detail our fourth quarter results, 2025 guidance and refreshed capital allocation priorities.

謝謝，格雷格。請允許我表達我的歡迎，並分享我們今天上午電話會議的議程。首先，我將介紹我們 2024 年第四季業績的財務亮點，並回顧我們全年策略舉措所取得的進展。其次，我將討論我們如何利用 2025 年策略重點來延續這一勢頭。最後，托德將詳細介紹我們的第四季業績、2025 年指引和更新的資本配置重點。

In the fourth quarter, TransUnion exceeded guidance on revenue and adjusted EBITDA for a fifth consecutive quarter. Revenue grew 9% on an organic constant currency basis, above our 6% to 8% guidance. Excluding mortgage, our growth of 4% also exceeded expectations. Our US market segments grew 8% in the quarter. Within that, financial services grew 21%, mortgage was up 80%, but was slightly below expectations as volumes moderated as interest rates rose.

第四季度，TransUnion 連續第五個季度超出預期收入和調整後 EBITDA。以有機固定匯率計算，營收成長 9%，高於我們預期的 6% 至 8%。除去抵押貸款，我們4%的增幅也超出了預期。我們的美國市場部門本季成長了 8%。其中，金融服務成長了 21%，抵押貸款增加了 80%，但由於利率上升導致交易量放緩，因此略低於預期。

Non-mortgage financial services accelerated to 7%. Credit volumes were broadly consistent with the prior quarter, supported by overall healthy US household finances. Unemployment remains low and real wages grew, although lower income consumers continue to face affordability pressures. Consumer delinquencies decreased in personal lending, remained stable in credit card and auto and are well below historical trends in mortgage. While the Fed announced 100 basis points of interest rate reductions in September through December, they signaled a slowing pace of easing going forward.

非抵押金融服務成長加速至7%。受美國家庭財務狀況整體健康的支撐，信貸量與上一季基本一致。儘管低收入消費者仍面臨負擔能力的壓力，但失業率仍維持在低位，實際薪資有所增加。個人貸款的消費者拖欠率下降，信用卡和汽車貸款的消費者拖欠率保持穩定，且遠低於抵押貸款的歷史趨勢。儘管聯準會在9月至12月宣布降息100個基點，但他們暗示未來寬鬆步伐將放緩。

Emerging verticals grew 4%, led by double-digit growth in insurance. Consumer interactive declined 11% as expected as we lapped a large breach win in the prior quarter. And international grew 12% on a constant currency basis. India grew 18%, Asia Pacific and Latin America also grew double digits and Canada and Africa were up high single digits. During the quarter, we prepaid $45 million in debt for a total of $150 million in 2024. We also successfully refinanced over $2.3 billion of our term loans, extending our maturity profile and reducing annual interest expense by $5 million. Notably, we achieved our near-term 3 times leverage ratio target at year-end.

新興垂直產業成長 4%，其中保險業實現兩位數成長。由於我們在上一季取得了重大突破，消費者互動業務如預期下降了 11%。以固定匯率計算，國際業務成長了 12%。印度成長了 18%，亞太地區和拉丁美洲也實現了兩位數成長，加拿大和非洲則實現了高個位數成長。本季度，我們預付了 4,500 萬美元的債務，2024 年總額將達到 1.5 億美元。我們也成功地為超過 23 億美元的定期貸款進行了再融資，延長了貸款期限，並減少了 500 萬美元的年度利息支出。值得注意的是，我們在年底實現了近期3倍槓桿率的目標。

Our fourth quarter concluded a productive 2024. For the year, we grew revenue by 9% on an organic constant currency basis, exceeding guidance each quarter and grew adjusted diluted EPS by 16%. We delivered these strong financial results while achieving key milestones against the three pillars of our transformation, optimizing our operating model, modernizing technology and accelerating innovation.

我們的第四季為富有成效的 2024 年畫上了圓滿的句號。今年，我們的營收以有機固定匯率計算成長了 9%，每季都超過了預期，調整後攤薄每股收益成長了 16%。我們在取得強勁財務業績的同時，也實現了轉型三大支柱、優化營運模式、現代化技術以及加速創新的關鍵里程碑。

For our operating model optimization, we relocated over 1,000 roles from local markets to our global capability centers, enhancing workforce productivity and allowing us to provide more services from a greater variety of talent-rich geographies. We also completed key steps in our technology modernization, preparing us to replatform core US credit and India analytics in 2025.

為了優化我們的營運模式，我們將 1,000 多個職位從本地市場遷移到我們的全球能力中心，提高了勞動力生產力，並使我們能夠從更多人才豐富的地區提供更多服務。我們也完成了技術現代化的關鍵步驟，為在 2025 年重新建構美國核心信貸和印度分析平台做好了準備。

Key milestones included launching end-to-end capabilities for our FactorTrust short-term lending bureau, migrating our data science and analytics use cases and enhancing the underlying capabilities of OneTru. Finally, we accelerated our pace of innovation. Over the course of 2024, we launched the first set of products built on OneTru, including TruIQ Data Enrichment, TruIQ Analytics studio, TruValidate Fraud Mitigation, TruAudience Native Identity and TruAudience Data Collaboration. These products are driving strong pipeline and new business wins, and we plan to continue that innovation momentum in 2025.

關鍵里程碑包括為我們的 FactorTrust 短期貸款機構推出端到端功能、遷移我們的資料科學和分析用例以及增強 OneTru 的底層功能。最後，我們加快了創新步伐。2024 年，我們推出了第一組以 OneTru 為基礎的產品，包括 TruIQ Data Enrichment、TruIQ Analytics studio、TruValidate Fraud Mitigation、TruAudience Native Identity 和 TruAudience Data Collaboration。這些產品正在推動強大的產品線和新業務的成功，我們計劃在 2025 年繼續保持這種創新勢頭。

Now our '25 strategic priorities build on these same initiatives to deliver on our financial commitments while continuing to transform the business for the next horizon of growth. Priority one is to deliver consistent results in a subdued but stable market with material future revenue and margin upside when US credit market conditions improve.

現在，我們的「25 個策略重點」以這些相同的舉措為基礎，以兌現我們的財務承諾，同時繼續轉變業務以迎接下一個成長空間。首要任務是在低迷但穩定的市場中取得持續的業績，並在美國信貸市場狀況改善時實現巨大的未來收入和利潤率上升。

Our remaining priorities focus on the same three pillars of our continued transformation. In 2025, we plan to strengthen and refine our global operating model, complete the US and India technology transformations and accelerate innovation and growth across our solution suites. I'll provide high-level color on our '25 guidance before detailing these three transformation priorities, including a product-specific deep dive on our consumer business in light of today's freemium launch announcement.

我們的其餘重點仍集中在持續轉型的三大支柱上。2025年，我們計劃加強和完善我們的全球營運模式，完成美國和印度的技術轉型，並加速我們解決方案套件的創新和成長。在詳細介紹這三個轉型重點之前，我將對我們的'25指導方針進行高級闡述，包括根據今天的免費增值版發佈公告對我們的消費者業務進行針對特定產品的深入研究。

In 2025, we expect to deliver between 3.5% to 5% revenue growth or 4.5% to 6% organic constant currency. We expect to deliver 3% to 6% adjusted EBITDA growth, which implies modest margin expansion at the high end of our range with revenue flow-through and cost management supporting continued investments in growth and transformation.

到 2025 年，我們預計營收成長率將達到 3.5% 至 5%，或有機固定匯率成長率將達到 4.5% 至 6%。我們預計調整後 EBITDA 成長率將達到 3% 至 6%，這意味著利潤率將在我們的區間高端適度擴大，同時收入流和成本管理將支持對成長和轉型的持續投資。

We anticipate 1% to 4% adjusted diluted earnings per share growth with strong operating performance, partially offset by a 600-basis-point headwind to growth from foreign exchange as well as a higher tax rate due to changes in global tax law, such as the global minimum tax rate. Todd will provide full details on these items shortly. We continue to apply the same prudently conservative guidance methodology we used throughout 2024. We are assuming muted but stable lending activity in the US, which reflects volumes well below historical trends. We are not assuming any credit volume improvement from further interest rate reductions in 2025.

我們預計調整後每股攤薄收益將成長 1% 至 4%，營運績效強勁，但外匯帶來的 600 個基點的成長阻力以及全球稅法變化（如全球最低稅率）導致的更高稅率部分抵銷了這一成長阻力。托德將很快提供有關這些物品的詳細資訊。我們將繼續採用 2024 年一直採用的審慎保守的指導方法。我們假設美國的貸款活動保持低調但穩定，這反映出貸款量遠低於歷史趨勢。我們並不認為 2025 年進一步降低利率會帶來信貸量的任何改善。

Now excluding mortgage and breach, our underlying revenue guidance assumes similar growth to 2025. We expect mortgage to be a 2 percentage points revenue benefit in '25, less than the 4 percentage points of benefit experienced in '24. We also expect breach impact to reverse from a 1 percentage point benefit in 2024 to a 1 percentage point headwind in 2025, assuming for now that we do not win any large-scale contracts this year.

現在，排除抵押和違約，我們的基本收入指引假設與 2025 年的成長類似。我們預計抵押貸款在'25 年的收入收益將為 2 個百分點，低於'24 年的 4 個百分點。我們也預計，違約影響將從 2024 年的 1 個百分點的收益逆轉為 2025 年的 1 個百分點的逆風，假設我們今年沒有贏得任何大規模合約。

We anticipate growth in US markets based on modest volume improvement in non-mortgage financial services, mortgage pricing, continued insurance strength and new wins across our solutions. In our international markets, we expect solid growth across our geographies. We anticipate India growth will moderate in the first half of the year before reaccelerating in the second half.

我們預計美國市場將實現成長，這得益於非抵押貸款金融服務量的適度成長、抵押貸款定價、保險業務的持續強勁以及我們解決方案的新勝利。在我們的國際市場上，我們預期各個地區都會實現穩健的成長。我們預計印度經濟成長將在上半年放緩，然後在下半年重新加速。

Now let me take a moment to detail how current US credit volumes compare to historical averages. As slide 8 highlights, mortgage and auto lending volumes remain below historical trends, and credit cards and personal loans are below historically high 2022 levels. Over the last two years, we navigated these notable credit volume headwinds, which came with high decremental margins.

現在讓我花點時間詳細解釋一下當前美國信貸量與歷史平均值的比較。正如第 8 張投影片所強調的，抵押貸款和汽車貸款量仍低於歷史趨勢，信用卡和個人貸款低於 2022 年的歷史高點。在過去的兩年裡，我們克服了信貸量顯著下降以及隨之而來的大幅降幅。

We maintained our strong margin profile by delivering structural cost savings across the organization. We're also well positioned for any improvement in credit volumes, which comes at high incremental margins and represents upside to our 2025 guidance. In mortgage, originations remain at low levels, not seen since 1995. If interest rates come down, we see a significant refinancing opportunity as demonstrated by the brief pickup in activity in late September following the first Fed rate cut.

我們透過在整個組織內實現結構性成本節約，保持了強勁的利潤率。我們也為信貸量的改善做好了準備，這將帶來較高的增量利潤率，並代表我們 2025 年指引的上行空間。在抵押貸款方面，發放量仍然處於較低水平，自1995年以來從未見過。如果利率下降，我們將看到巨大的再融資機會，正如聯準會首次降息後 9 月底活動的短暫回升所證明的那樣。

Auto loan volume, after multiple years of declines, were flat in 2024. We expect modest volume growth in 2025, but used car activity remains soft. We anticipate recovering the used car market in the coming years, supported by replenished inventory and the need for consumers to replace an aging vehicle fleet. Credit card originations are above pre-pandemic levels, but a decline from peak in 2022. Small and medium-sized lenders pulled back substantially throughout 2023 and have since stabilized at lower origination levels. These customers are starting to explore growth opportunities, supported by replenished deposit bases and stabilizing delinquencies.

汽車貸款量在連續多年下滑之後，到 2024 年持平。我們預計 2025 年二手車銷售將溫和成長，但二手車活動仍疲軟。我們預計，在庫存補充和消費者更換老舊車輛的需求的推動下，二手車市場將在未來幾年復甦。信用卡發放量高於疫情前的水平，但較 2022 年的峰值有所下降。中小型貸款機構在 2023 年大幅撤退，此後一直穩定在較低的貸款發放水準。在補充的存款基礎和穩定的拖欠率的支持下，這些客戶開始探索成長機會。

Unsecured personal loans experienced a modest recovery in 2024, following slowing activity in late '22 through 2023. Our fintech customers are starting to position themselves for growth after a few years of retrenchment. Funding is recovering, and we see healthy consumer demand for debt consolidation products.

在 2022 年底至 2023 年活動放緩之後，無擔保個人貸款在 2024 年經歷了溫和復甦。我們的金融科技客戶在經過幾年的緊縮措施後，開始為成長做好準備。融資正在恢復，我們看到消費者對債務合併產品的需求旺盛。

Fintech revenue across credit cards and consumer lending totaled $130 million in 2024, down from $140 million in the prior year and $175 million in 2022. Together, these dynamics support our view that volumes will improve over the medium term to the benefit of our business. Our focus, however, is transforming the business to accelerate organic growth independent of the credit cycle.

2024 年信用卡和消費貸款的金融科技收入總計 1.3 億美元，低於上年的 1.4 億美元和 2022 年的 1.75 億美元。綜合起來，這些動態支持了我們的觀點：中期內銷售量將會增加，從而有利於我們的業務。然而，我們的重點是轉變業務，以加速獨立於信貸週期的有機成長。

I'll spend the rest of my time discussing priorities under our three transformation pillars in 2025. We are creating a world-class global operating model to build scale across the organization, standardize ways of operating in support product, geographic and vertical growth. 2024 was a step change forward. In addition to transitioning 1,000 roles to our GCCs, we strengthened our local GCC leadership by hiring senior managers within the regions.

我將用剩餘的時間討論 2025 年三大轉型支柱下的優先事項。我們正在創建世界一流的全球營運模式，以在整個組織內擴大規模，標準化營運方式，支援產品、地理和垂直成長。 2024 年是向前邁出的一步。除了將 1,000 個職位轉移到我們的 GCC 之外，我們還透過在各地區招募高階經理來加強我們當地的 GCC 領導力。

As we shift more work to the GCCs, we've implemented a rigorous playbook to mitigate knowledge transfer risk. Our centralized transition team systematically tracks and documents work processes, trains new associates and develops a feedback loop for continuous process improvement. 2025 will be a year of continuous refinement and enhancement.

隨著我們將更多工作轉移到 GCC，我們實施了嚴格的劇本來降低知識轉移風險。我們集中的過渡團隊有系統地追蹤和記錄工作流程，培訓新員工並開發回饋迴路以持續改進流程。 2025年，是不斷改進和提升的一年。

Building off the successful transition of new roles to the GCCs, we're ensuring that we foster a best-in-class GCC network. We continue to train and develop and assess recent hires. We see positive indicators in terms of employee satisfaction as well as manager confidence in new hire proficiency.

在成功向 GCC 過渡新角色的基礎上，我們確保建立一流的 GCC 網路。我們將繼續培訓、發展和評估新聘用的員工。我們在員工滿意度以及管理者對新員工能力的信心方面看到了積極的指標。

Across the organization, we're also examining our way of operating to support future growth. We are enhancing collaboration across functional areas, streamlining decision-making, empowering teams and fostering stronger partnerships across the organization to unlock the full value of the business enabled by global operating model.

在整個組織中，我們也在審視我們的運作方式以支持未來的成長。我們正在加強跨職能領域的協作，簡化決策流程，增強團隊能力，並在整個組織內建立更強大的合作夥伴關係，以釋放全球營運模式所帶來的業務的全部價值。

Now these actions are orienting the business toward accelerated innovation in high-growth product areas. As an example, we're optimizing how we gather, analyze and incorporate voice of customer across our product portfolio. We expect these actions will drive improved customer experiences and satisfaction, faster idea generation and innovation and increased cross-sell opportunities.

現在，這些措施正引導企業在高成長產品領域加速創新。例如，我們正在優化我們在整個產品組合中收集、分析和整合客戶聲音的方式。我們希望這些措施將改善客戶體驗和滿意度，加快創意產生和創新，並增加交叉銷售機會。

Our operating model optimization is highly complementary to the next pillar of our transformation, technology modernization. We are evolving our technology capabilities into modern, global, cloud-based data management and product platforms.

我們的營運模式優化與我們轉型的下一個支柱—技術現代化高度互補。我們正在將我們的技術能力發展為現代化、全球化、基於雲端的資料管理和產品平台。

Slide 10 visualizes our platform-based approach. To orient you on this visual from the bottom up, OneDev is the internal name of our technology infrastructure operating system. OneDev drives our technology modernization savings by standardizing our infrastructure services and developer tools onto a single foundation to reduce cost and increase engineering productivity.

投影片 10 直觀地展示了我們基於平台的方法。為了讓您從下往上了解這個視覺效果，OneDev 是我們技術基礎架構作業系統的內部名稱。OneDev 透過將我們的基礎設施服務和開發人員工具標準化到單一基礎上來推動我們的技術現代化節約，從而降低成本並提高工程效率。

We are adopting and evolving the OneDev platform-based approach to drive enhanced security, productivity and resiliency. We also continue to uncover cost savings opportunities around third-party cloud and vendor costs.

我們正在採用和改進基於 OneDev 平台的方法來提高安全性、生產力和彈性。我們也將繼續探索第三方雲端和供應商成本方面的成本節約機會。

Now built off of OneDev, OneTru is our core solutions enablement platform and a key driver of innovation and revenue growth. It centralizes our common product services of data management, identity resolution, analytics and delivery. We continue to augment OneTru's underlying product services, including expanding identity attributes, enhanced matching and decisioning capabilities and generative AI tools to support productivity improvement. These enhancements will benefit any application or product that's built on the platform.

現在，OneTru 建立在 OneDev 的基礎上，它是我們的核心解決方案支援平台，也是創新和營收成長的關鍵驅動力。它集中了我們常見的資料管理、識別、分析和交付產品服務。我們將繼續增強 OneTru 的底層產品服務，包括擴展身分屬性、增強匹配和決策能力以及生成式 AI 工具以支援提高生產力。這些增強功能將使基於該平台構建的任何應用程式或產品受益。

And leveraging OneTru, our seven global solutions families are being consolidated into integrated end-to-end product suite. We are rejuvenating each product line to deliver better product quality and time to market. We're also accelerating the pace of new product innovation. We delivered on significant milestones toward completing the first phase of our technology modernization in 2025.

利用 OneTru，我們的七大全球解決方案系列被合併為整合的端到端產品套件。我們正在更新每條產品線，以提供更好的產品品質和更快的上市時間。我們也正在加快新產品創新的腳步。我們朝著 2025 年完成科技現代化第一階段的目標邁出了重要的一步。

Let me detail our progress and next steps in migrating key applications and platforms onto OneTru by the end of this year. First, we went live with FactorTrust short-term lending bureau on OneTru in 2024, enabling several enhanced capabilities. We've now migrated roughly half of FactorTrust customers onto OneTru and will migrate the remaining customers over the course of 2025. We continue to move our internal big data and analytics environment, which we call SHAPE, on to OneTru. We activated 90% of all data science and analytics use cases by the end of 2024 and position ourselves to decommission the legacy platform over the course of this year.

讓我詳細介紹一下我們在今年年底前將關鍵應用程式和平台遷移到 OneTru 的進度和後續步驟。首先，我們在 2024 年在 OneTru 上與 FactorTrust 短期貸款機構合作，實現了多項增強的功能。目前，我們已將大約一半的 FactorTrust 客戶遷移到 OneTru，並將在 2025 年內遷移剩餘的客戶。我們將繼續把我們內部的大數據和分析環境（我們稱之為SHAPE）轉移到OneTru。到 2024 年底，我們將啟動 90% 的資料科學和分析用例，並準備在今年內淘汰舊平台。

In core US credit, we are now live with one of our largest US credit customers for end-to-end batch and online capabilities. We are currently dual running on OneTru and our legacy platform. We are achieving a notable reduction in processing times compared to the legacy platform, which we expect to improve further. We plan to begin migrating our 50 largest US credit customers later this quarter. In India, we moved five years of analytic data sets onto OneTru with 60% of local data scientists and 35% of use cases on the platform. We plan to migrate all data analytics works to OneTru by the end of 2025, enabling us to launch our TruIQ Analytics Suite and Innovation Labs in the region. And in Consumer Solutions, our freemium product launch represents a significant enhancement to our direct-to-consumer user experience.

在美國核心信貸領域，我們目前與美國最大的信貸客戶之一合作，提供端到端批量和線上功能。我們目前在 OneTru 和我們的傳統平台上雙重運行。與舊平台相比，我們的處理時間已顯著縮短，並且我們希望能進一步縮短。我們計劃在本季稍後開始遷移我們最大的 50 家美國信貸客戶。在印度，我們將五年的分析資料集轉移到 OneTru，其中 60% 是本地資料科學家，35% 的用例在該平台上。我們計劃在 2025 年底之前將所有數據分析工作遷移到 OneTru，以便我們在該地區推出我們的 TruIQ 分析套件和創新實驗室。在消費者解決方案方面，我們免費增值產品的推出顯著提升了我們直接面向消費者的用戶體驗。

We continue to consolidate the underlying technology of our offerings, including those acquired through Sontiq onto a single global platform. As a reminder, each of these migrations are within the scope of our US and India modernization program, which we expect to complete by the end of '25 and to drive the remaining committed cost savings. With that said, we view OneTru as our destination platform globally. We selected the UK, Canada, Colombia and the Philippines as the next targets for OneTru migration in 2026 and beyond. All future migrations will be funded within normal course of business with the goal of delivering structural cost savings and accelerating the pace of innovation globally.

我們將繼續整合我們產品的底層技術，包括透過 Sontiq 獲得的技術，將其整合到單一的全球平台上。提醒一下，這些遷移都屬於我們美國和印度現代化計劃的範圍，我們預計該計劃將於 25 年底完成，並推動剩餘的承諾成本節約。話雖如此，我們將 OneTru 視為我們的全球目標平台。我們選擇英國、加拿大、哥倫比亞和菲律賓作為 2026 年及以後 OneTru 遷移的下一個目標。所有未來的遷移都將在正常業務過程中獲得資助，目標是實現結構性成本節約並加快全球創新步伐。

Migrating key platforms onto OneTru is an enabler of our final transformation pillar in 2025, accelerating innovation and growth across our solutions. Before detailing our efforts across our product suites, slide 12 provides new revenue mix disclosure, breaking down our US markets and international segments by the largest solution families. Less than 50% of our US revenue is now credit related, a substantial shift from what was a credit-centric business a decade ago.

將關鍵平台遷移到 OneTru 是我們 2025 年最終轉型支柱的推動因素，可加速我們解決方案的創新和成長。在詳細介紹我們在整個產品套件中的努力之前，投影片 12 提供了新的收入組合揭露，按最大的解決方案系列細分了我們的美國市場和國際市場。目前，我們在美國的收入中不到 50% 與信貸相關，這與十年前以信貸為中心的業務相比發生了重大轉變。

Our international business is earlier in the product extension journey with roughly 70% of revenue tied to credit. We see substantial opportunity to bring our scalable global solutions to international markets. Across each of our solution suites, we built comprehensive strategies to accelerate innovation and growth, supported by dedicated product leaders.

我們的國際業務處於產品擴展的早期階段，約 70% 的收入與信貸掛鉤。我們看到了將可擴展的全球解決方案推向國際市場的巨大機會。在我們的每個解決方案套件中，我們都制定了全面的策略來加速創新和成長，並得到專門的產品領導者的支持。

Slide 13 summarizes the strategic initiatives across key product lines. We plan to spotlight these individual solution families throughout the year. In 2025, we expect all four core B2B product suites, credit, marketing, fraud and communications to contribute to organic growth. Longer term, we aspire for the solution families to grow high single digits or greater, raising our inherent growth rate independent of the credit cycle. This quarter though, I want to spotlight our consumer business and specifically how today's freemium announcement fits within a comprehensive strategy to return Consumer Interactive to sustainable growth. Now earlier today, we announced the launch of our new direct-to-consumer experience in the US, enabled by our strategic collaboration with Credit Sesame.

投影片 13 總結了主要產品線的策略性舉措。我們計劃全年重點關注這些單獨的解決方案系列。到 2025 年，我們預計四大核心 B2B 產品套件（信貸、行銷、詐欺和通訊）將促進有機成長。從長遠來看，我們希望解決方案家庭的數量能夠實現高個位數甚至更高的成長，從而提高我們獨立於信貸週期的固有成長率。不過，本季我想專注於我們的消費者業務，特別是今天宣布的免費增值服務如何融入讓消費者互動業務恢復可持續成長的綜合策略。今天早些時候，我們宣佈在美國推出新的直接面向消費者的體驗，這得益於我們與 Credit Sesame 的策略合作。

The new offering allows us to more fully serve tens of millions of consumers who visit TransUnion properties annually with a highly engaging freemium credit education and management solution that will be integrated with enhanced premium credit monitoring services. We will launch the new platform in phases throughout the first half of 2025.

這項新產品使我們能夠更全面地服務於每年訪問 TransUnion 場所的數千萬消費者，提供極具吸引力的免費信用教育和管理解決方案，並將與增強型優質信用監控服務相結合。我們將在 2025 年上半年分階段推出新平台。

In the new experience, US consumers can sign up for a suite of free credit education and management services, including a daily credit score on TU's website and app. Consumers will also have access to a growing network of financial offers tailored to their goals and credit profile. This initiative combines unique capabilities from both Credit Sesame and TU. Credit Sesame brings its expertise in developing and managing a highly intuitive credit education and management experience and an associated offer network.

在新的體驗中，美國消費者可以註冊一系列免費的信用教育和管理服務，包括 TU 網站和應用程式上的每日信用評分。消費者還可以享受根據其目標和信用狀況量身定制的、不斷增長的金融服務網絡。該計劃結合了 Credit Sesame 和 TU 的獨特能力。Credit Sesame 擁有開發和管理高度直覺的信用教育和管理經驗以及相關優惠網絡的專業知識。

TransUnion provides our credit data, our well-known brand, organic consumer traffic and our existing consumer base. We will manage marketing, consumer servicing and ongoing operational and compliance controls. And going forward, TransUnion and Credit Sesame plan to innovate on the platform and expand the network of offer partners.

TransUnion 提供我們的信用數據、我們的知名品牌、有機消費者流量和我們現有的消費者群。我們將管理行銷、消費者服務和持續的營運和合規控制。展望未來，TransUnion 和 Credit Sesame 計劃在平台上進行創新，並擴大優惠合作夥伴網路。

We are excited to expand into the multibillion dollar freemium credit management market. We believe we've got a right to win in this space given our brand recognition, our volume of consumer traffic and deep relationships with lenders and insurers. By collaborating with Credit Sesame, we accelerate our speed to market and reduce our upfront technology investment when compared to building the platform ourselves. Our agreement also ensures continued access to Credit Sesame's pipeline of innovation.

我們很高興能夠擴展到價值數十億美元的免費增值信用管理市場。我們相信，憑藉我們的品牌知名度、消費者流量以及與貸方和保險公司的深厚關係，我們有權在這個領域獲勝。透過與 Credit Sesame 合作，與我們自己建立平台相比，我們加快了產品上市速度並減少了前期技術投資。我們的協議還確保繼續獲得 Credit Sesame 的創新管道。

Our fremium offering supports deeper relationships with consumers and customers. Only a fraction of the tens of millions of consumers who visit TU digital properties convert to our current premium services. In the new freemium experience, we will engage significantly more consumers and keep them in our ecosystem longer by offering a streamlined path to upgrade to premium services or downgrade back to free services, providing choice and flexibility as the consumer's needs evolve. Our larger engaged consumer audience also benefits our financial services and insurance customers, providing them with an additional acquisition channel. We have received positive feedback from customers during the initial planning.

我們的免費加值服務支援與消費者和客戶建立更深層的關係。在存取 TU 數位資產的數千萬消費者中，只有一小部分會選擇我們目前的優質服務。在新的免費增值體驗中，我們將提供升級到付費服務或降級回免費服務的簡化途徑，吸引更多消費者，並讓他們更長時間地留在我們的生態系統中，從而隨著消費者需求的變化而提供選擇和靈活性。我們更大的參與消費者受眾也使我們的金融服務和保險客戶受益，為他們提供了額外的管道。我們在最初的規劃中就收到了客戶的正面回饋。

We also continue to reinvigorate our Consumer Interactive business after the last few years of revenue pressure. We aligned the business within US markets. We've added capabilities such as identity protection and breach remediation through the Sontiq acquisition, and we continue to modernize the technology platform. Our direct-to-consumer freemium launch fills a significant gap in our product line.

在經歷了過去幾年的收入壓力之後，我們也繼續重振我們的消費者互動業務。我們將業務與美國市場進行協調。我們透過收購 Sontiq 增加了身分保護和違規補救等功能，並繼續對技術平台進行現代化改造。我們直接向消費者推出的免費增值產品填補了我們產品線的重大空白。

We can now expansively engage and empower consumers with the best fit offerings to achieve their financial goals. Also, our planned acquisition of Monevo adds to our capabilities and is expected to close by the second quarter. Monevo's centralized decisioning infrastructure enables lenders and banks to deliver highly personalized credit offers to consumers through freemium players and other online brands. Monevo delivers benefits to publishers, customers and consumers alike. Publishers can deliver more personalized engagement and successfully matched offers, driving higher conversion rates.

我們現在可以廣泛地吸引消費者並為他們提供最適合的產品，以實現他們的財務目標。此外，我們計劃收購 Monevo，這將增強我們的實力，預計將於第二季完成。Monevo 的集中決策基礎設施使貸方和銀行能夠透過免費增值服務商和其他線上品牌向消費者提供高度個人化的信貸服務。Monevo 為出版商、客戶和消費者帶來了利益。出版商可以提供更個人化的參與和成功匹配的優惠，從而提高轉換率。

Lenders can minimize adverse selection and optimize acquisition costs, and consumers can gain confidence in their likelihood of approval for credit products before applying. We plan to eventually leverage Monevo's capabilities within our direct-to-consumer offerings as well. Now we believe our expanded offering positions Consumer Interactive for sustainable mid-single-digit or greater revenue growth over the longer term.

貸方可以最大限度地減少逆向選擇並優化收購成本，消費者可以在申請之前對信貸產品獲得批准的可能性充滿信心。我們計劃最終在我們的直接面向消費者的產品中利用 Monevo 的功能。現在我們相信，我們擴大的產品範圍將使消費者互動業務在長期內實現可持續的中等個位數或更高的收入成長。

Now let me detail the growth dynamics across each component of the business. In our direct channel, we have been stabilizing our premium subscriber base, resulting in dissipating declines throughout 2024. Our freemium offering expands our growth opportunity this year. 2025 will be a transition as we migrate subscribers and begin marketing with the expanded offering. We expect to build traction throughout the year.

現在讓我詳細介紹一下業務各個組成部分的成長動態。在我們的直接管道中，我們一直在穩定我們的優質用戶群，從而導致 2024 年全年下滑趨勢逐漸消散。我們的免費增值服務擴大了我們今年的成長機會。 2025 年將是一個過渡期，我們將遷移用戶並開始透過擴展產品進行行銷。我們期望全年都能保持強勁勢頭。

In our indirect channel, we expect to benefit from stabilization in lending activity, which will drive increased consumer engagement and expand utilization of our channel partners for marketing. We also aim to expand wallet share with customers, including with personalized offers enabled through the acquisition of Monevo.

在我們的間接管道中，我們預計將受益於貸款活動的穩定，這將推動消費者參與度的提高，並擴大我們通路合作夥伴的行銷利用率。我們也致力於擴大客戶的錢包份額，包括透過收購 Monevo 提供個人化服務。

Finally, revenues in identity protection and breach solutions, which we acquired via Sontiq, have scaled from $95 million in '22 to $165 million in 2024. We are increasingly winning small and large breach remediation deals through the combined capabilities of Sontiq and TransUnion. These revenues can be uneven, and they had an outsized benefit in 2024, but we are building momentum, credibility and relevance in this growing market. And we look forward to updating you on our progress in reinvigorating our consumer business over the upcoming quarters.

最後，我們透過 Sontiq 收購的身分保護和違規解決方案的收入從 2022 年的 9,500 萬美元增至 2024 年的 1.65 億美元。透過 Sontiq 和 TransUnion 的綜合能力，我們越來越多地贏得大大小小的違規補救交易。這些收入可能並不均衡，而且它們在 2024 年獲得了巨大的收益，但我們正在這個不斷增長的市場中建立動力、信譽和相關性。我們期待在接下來的幾季向您通報我們重振消費者業務的進展。

Now Todd is going to provide further details on our fourth quarter financial results and our full year 2025 outlook. So over to you, Todd.

現在，托德將提供有關我們第四季度財務業績和 2025 年全年展望的更多詳細資訊。那麼交給你了，托德。

Thanks, Chris, and let me add my welcome to everyone. As Chris mentioned, in the fourth quarter, we exceeded our guidance for revenue and adjusted EBITDA, driven by outperformance in nonmortgage financial services and international. Fourth quarter consolidated revenue increased 9% on a reported and organic constant currency basis. There was no impact from acquisitions and an immaterial impact from foreign currency.

謝謝，克里斯，請允許我向大家表示歡迎。正如克里斯所提到的，在第四季度，我們的收入和調整後 EBITDA 超出了預期，這得益於非抵押金融服務和國際業務的優異表現。以報告和有機固定匯率計算，第四季綜合收入成長 9%。收購未產生任何影響，外幣的影響也不重大。

Our business grew 4% on an organic constant currency basis, excluding mortgage from both the fourth quarter of 2023 and 2024. Comparison against high breach activity in the prior year quarter was a 1% revenue headwind.

不包括 2023 年和 2024 年第四季的抵押貸款，我們的業務以有機固定匯率計算增長了 4%。與去年同期的高違規行為相比，收入下降了 1%。

Adjusted EBITDA increased 16% on a reported and constant currency basis. Our adjusted EBITDA margin was 36.5%, up 230 basis points and above the high end of our expectations. Adjusted diluted earnings per share was $0.97, an increase of 21%. Our adjusted tax rate for the quarter was 25.1%, slightly higher than expected due to the mix of foreign earnings.

以報告和固定匯率計算，調整後的 EBITDA 成長了 16%。我們的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 36.5%，上漲 230 個基點，高於我們預期的高點。調整後每股攤薄收益為 0.97 美元，成長 21%。我們本季的調整後稅率為 25.1%，由於海外收益的組合，略高於預期。

Finally, in the fourth quarter, we took $34 million of one-time charges related to our transformation program, $8 million for operating model optimization and $26 million for technology transformation. We incurred $179 million of one-time transformation expenses in 2024.

最後，在第四季度，我們計入了與轉型計畫相關的一次性費用 3,400 萬美元，其中營運模式優化費用 800 萬美元，技術轉型費用 2,600 萬美元。我們在 2024 年發生了 1.79 億美元的一次性轉型費用。

Looking at segment financial performance for the fourth quarter, US markets revenue, which includes Consumer Interactive, was up 8% compared to the year ago quarter. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 39.4% or up 300 basis points, driven by revenue growth and transformation cost savings. Financial Services revenue grew 21%. Excluding mortgage, Financial Services revenue was up 7%. Trends remained consistent with year-over-year growth improving sequentially as we lapped the slowdown in activity from late 2023. We continue to outperform modest volume growth, driven by the successful cross-sell of our innovative solutions.

縱觀第四季度的分部財務業績，包括消費者互動業務在內的美國市場收入比去年同期增長了 8%。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 39.4%，上升 300 個基點，這得益於收入成長和轉型成本的節省。金融服務收入成長21%。除抵押貸款外，金融服務收入增加了 7%。隨著我們從 2023 年底開始克服經濟活動放緩的趨勢，趨勢仍然保持一致，同比增長率連續提高。由於我們創新解決方案的成功交叉銷售，我們繼續實現適度的銷售成長。

Our credit card and banking business was up 6% against tempered online volumes. We delivered healthy new business wins for Trusted Call Solutions as well as data enrichment and the broader TruIQ Analytics Suite. Consumer lending revenue grew 3%. Fintech lenders slowly resumed marketing activity with select lenders increasing originations. We also delivered healthy new logo wins from alternative lenders throughout the year. We believe consumer lending will grow well in 2025.

儘管線上業務量有所下降，但我們的信用卡和銀行業務仍成長了 6%。我們為 Trusted Call Solutions 以及數據豐富和更廣泛的 TruIQ Analytics Suite 帶來了健康的新業務勝利。消費貸款收入成長3%。金融科技貸款機構緩慢恢復行銷活動，部分貸款機構增加了貸款發放量。我們還全年從替代貸款機構獲得了可觀的新標誌勝利。我們相信，2025年消費貸款將會良好成長。

Our auto business grew 7%. New car sales expanded, but used car sales remain tempered. Our team finished the year well with wins across fraud, alternative data and marketing as well as verification of income and employment solutions through our Truework partnership.

我們的汽車業務成長了7%。新車銷售擴大，但二手車銷售仍低迷。我們的團隊透過與 Truework 合作，在反詐欺、替代數據和行銷以及收入驗證和就業解決方案方面取得了豐厚的成績，圓滿結束了這一年。

For mortgage, revenue grew 80% compared to inquiry volumes up 4%, modestly below expectations as the 10-year treasury rate increased 80 basis points throughout the quarter, adversely impacting the 30-year mortgage rate. In 2024, mortgage accounts for about 11% of total TransUnion revenue. Emerging verticals grew 4% in the quarter, led by double-digit growth in insurance.

就抵押貸款而言，收入增長了 80%，而諮詢量僅增長了 4%，略低於預期，因為 10 年期國債利率在整個季度增加了 80 個基點，對 30 年期抵押貸款利率產生了不利影響。2024 年，抵押貸款約佔 TransUnion 總收入的 11%。新興垂直產業本季成長 4%，其中保險業實現兩位數成長。

Public sector, media and tech, retail and e-commerce, all grew low single digits, offset by low single-digit declines in tenant and employment and telco. Insurance grew double digits as market trends progressed as anticipated. Insurance shopping remains active and marketing activity continues to recover as rate adequacy steadily improves. The business continues to deliver broad-based new wins, both in core credit and driving history as well as Trusted Call Solutions and our modern marketing products.

公共部門、媒體和科技、零售和電子商務均實現了低個位數成長，但被租戶、就業和電信行業的低個位數下降所抵消。隨著市場趨勢按照預期發展，保險收入實現了兩位數成長。隨著費率充足率穩定提高，保險購物依然活躍，行銷活動持續恢復。該業務繼續在核心信貸和駕駛歷史以及可信賴呼叫解決方案和我們的現代行銷產品方面取得廣泛的新勝利。

Turning to Consumer Interactive. Revenue decreased 11% as expected as the business lapped a sizable breach win from the prior year. Excluding the breach headwind, revenue declined due to the direct channel. Within US markets, Neustar finished the year well. For the year, Neustar grew mid-single digits and expanded adjusted EBITDA margins to 35%, up from 31% in 2023 and ahead of our expectations. We have now delivered $100 million of Neustar cost synergies, exceeding our initial $70 million target. This is in addition to the enterprise-wide benefits of Neustar's underlying technology as the destination platform for our technology modernization.

轉向消費者互動。由於該業務較上年取得了相當大的違約收益，收入如預期下降了 11%。除去違約不利因素，收入因直接管道而下降。在美國市場，Neustar 今年取得了良好的表現。今年，Neustar 實現了中等個位數成長，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率從 2023 年的 31% 擴大至 35%，並超出了我們的預期。我們現在已經實現了 1 億美元的 Neustar 成本協同效應，超過了我們最初 7,000 萬美元的目標。除此之外，Neustar 的底層技術作為我們技術現代化的目標平台也為整個企業帶來了好處。

For my comments about International, all revenue growth comparisons will be in constant currency. For the total segment, revenue grew 12% with three of our six reported markets growing by double digits. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 43.8%, up 20 basis points. Now let's dig into the specifics for each region. India grew 18%. Online consumer credit volumes declined modestly with revenue growth driven by product and vertical diversification.

對於我對國際的評論，所有收入成長比較都將以固定貨幣計算。就整個部門而言，收入成長了 12%，其中我們報告的六個市場中有三個市場實現了兩位數的成長。調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 43.8%，上升 20 個基點。現在讓我們深入了解每個地區的具體情況。印度成長了18%。線上消費信貸量略有下降，收入成長主要得益於產品和垂直多樣化。

Commercial credit and direct-to-consumer solutions as well as new products like our API marketplace drove growth. The Indian consumer credit market remains tight due to the Reserve Bank of India's proactive actions to temper the pace of lending by tightening regulations on unsecured lending and targeting lower loan-to-deposit ratios industry-wide.

商業信貸和直接面向消費者的解決方案以及我們的 API 市場等新產品推動了成長。由於印度儲備銀行採取積極措施，透過收緊無擔保貸款監管和降低全行業貸存比來控制貸款速度，印度消費信貸市場仍然緊張。

We see signs for potential thawing in the consumer credit market throughout 2025. Loan-to-deposit ratios are approaching target ranges and a few impacted nonbanking finance companies received approval to lend again.

我們看到 2025 年全年消費信貸市場可能會解凍的跡象。貸存比正在接近目標範圍，一些受影響的非銀行金融公司獲得了再次放款的批准。

Additionally, the RBI cut interest rates by 25 basis points during its meeting last week and signaled further reductions in the first half of the year. This is in the context of slowing inflation and consumer delinquencies below long-term averages.

此外，印度儲備銀行在上週的會議上將利率下調了25個基點，並暗示今年上半年將進一步降息。這是在通貨膨脹放緩和消費者違約率低於長期平均的背景下發生的。

With that said, we expect credit volumes to remain soft in the first half of the year. The first quarter also compares against robust activity in the prior year quarter when many customers exceeded their volume commitments. We expect India to grow modestly in the first quarter, improve in the second quarter and return to faster growth in the second half. Our guidance assumes roughly 10% growth in India in 2025 with a much stronger trajectory exiting the year. We believe our guidance captures a prudently conservative scenario for the Indian market.

話雖如此，我們預計今年上半年信貸量仍將保持疲軟。與去年同期相比，第一季的業務表現也較為強勁，當時許多客戶的銷售量均超出承諾。我們預計印度經濟第一季將溫和成長，第二季將有所改善，下半年將恢復更快成長。我們的預測是，2025 年印度的經濟成長率將達到 10% 左右，而到 2025 年底，其成長軌跡將更為強勁。我們相信，我們的指引反映了印度市場的審慎保守的情景。

Our UK business grew 3% against broadly consistent trends. We experienced gradually improving banking and fintech conditions with new business wins across our vertical portfolio, setting the market up for a solid 2025. In Canada, we grew 8%, driven by new and expanded consumer indirect contracts, continued recovery in insurance, breach wins and cross-selling new identity solutions.

我們的英國業務逆勢成長了 3%。隨著我們垂直投資組合中新業務的成功，銀行業和金融科技環境逐漸改善，為 2025 年的穩健發展奠定了基礎。在加拿大，我們成長了 8%，這得益於新的和擴大的消費者間接合約、保險的持續復甦、違約勝利和交叉銷售新的身份解決方案。

In Latin America, revenue grew 15%. Colombia grew high single digit, led by fintech and our fraud solutions. Brazil grew over 20% and our other Latin American countries also grew in the high teens. In Asia Pacific, we grew 20%, led by strength in the Philippines. Asia Pacific crossed $100 million in annual revenue for the first time in 2024. Finally, Africa increased 8% with broad-based growth led by our retail vertical.

在拉丁美洲，收入成長了 15%。在金融科技和我們的詐欺解決方案的推動下，哥倫比亞實現了高個位數成長。巴西的成長超過了20％，而我們其他拉丁美洲國家的成長率也達到了百分之十幾。在亞太地區，我們成長了 20%，其中菲律賓的成長最為強勁。2024年亞太地區年營收首度突破1億美元。最後，非洲地區成長了 8%，其中以零售垂直市場為主導，實現了廣泛成長。

On January 16, we announced an exciting step in our proven international growth strategy with our agreement to acquire majority ownership of TransUnion de Mexico, the consumer credit business of the largest credit bureau in Mexico Buro de Credito. The deal is expected to close toward the end of 2025 and is not included in our 2025 guidance. Our investor presentation, which is available on our Investor Relations website, provides further details.

1 月 16 日，我們宣布了行之有效的國際成長策略中令人興奮的一步：我們同意收購墨西哥最大信用局 Buro de Credito 旗下的消費信貸業務 TransUnion de Mexico 的多數股權。該交易預計將於 2025 年底完成，且未包含在我們的 2025 年指引中。我們的投資者介紹資料可在投資者關係網站上查閱，其中提供了進一步的詳細資訊。

Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $5.1 billion of debt and $679 million of cash on the balance sheet. Our leverage ratio at year-end was 3 times. We made a $45 million voluntary repayment in the fourth quarter for a total of $150 million in 2024.

轉向資產負債表。截至本季末，我們的資產負債表上有 51 億美元的債務和 6.79 億美元的現金。我們年底的槓桿率為3倍。我們在第四季自願償還了 4,500 萬美元，2024 年總計償還 1.5 億美元。

Since announcing our Neustar acquisition, we voluntarily prepaid $1.6 billion in debt. In December, we refinanced $2.3 billion of our term loan, extending our maturity profile and reducing our annual interest expense. Our voluntary prepayments and refinancing activity in 2024 drove $24 million of annual savings.

自從宣布收購 Neustar 以來，我們自願預付了 16 億美元的債務。12 月份，我們對 23 億美元的定期貸款進行了再融資，延長了貸款期限，並降低了年度利息支出。我們在 2024 年的自願預付款和再融資活動每年帶來 2,400 萬美元的節省。

At the end of 2024, we replaced an expiring swap, which had $1.3 billion notional value and a rate of 4.3% with a new swap that has $1.1 billion notional value at a lower rate of 3.5%. 72% of our debt is now swapped to fixed rate. Net of swaps, our all-in average effective cost of debt at today's rates is 4.3%. In the appendix of our presentation, we provided a slide on our debt profile and a bridge to 2025 expected interest expense.

2024 年底，我們將一份名目價值為 13 億美元、利率為 4.3% 的到期掉期合約替換為一份名目價值為 11 億美元、利率較低為 3.5% 的新掉期合約。我們現在有 72% 的債務已換成固定利率。扣除掉期利息後，以今日利率計算，我們的總平均有效債務成本為 4.3%。在我們簡報的附錄中，我們提供了一張有關我們的債務狀況和 2025 年預期利息支出的幻燈片。

Turning to guidance. At the high end of guidance, we are assuming muted but stable lending volumes to persist throughout 2025. We are not anticipating any revenue benefit from interest rate reductions. We also took a conservative approach to our assumptions for US mortgage volumes and Indian credit growth, two of the largest swing factors in 2025. That brings us to our outlook for the first quarter.

轉向指導。在指導的高端，我們假設整個 2025 年貸款量將保持平穩但穩定。我們預計降低利率不會帶來任何收入成長。我們也對美國抵押貸款量和印度信貸成長的假設採取了保守態度，這兩個因素是 2025 年最大的波動因素。這就是我們對第一季的展望。

We expect FX to be a 1% headwind to revenue and 2% headwind to adjusted EBITDA. We expect revenue to be between $1.06 billion and $1.074 billion or up 5% to 6% on an organic constant currency basis. Our revenue guidance includes approximately 2 points of tailwind from mortgage. We expect to again benefit from the pricing actions of a third-party scores provider through 2025. In the first quarter, we expect mortgage inquiries to decline more than 10%. Excluding mortgage, we expect the business to grow 3% to 4% on an organic constant currency basis.

我們預計外匯將對收入造成 1% 的阻力，對調整後 EBITDA 造成 2% 的阻力。我們預計營收將在 10.6 億美元至 10.74 億美元之間，或以有機固定匯率計算成長 5% 至 6%。我們的收入預期包括來自抵押貸款的約 2 個點的順風。我們預計到 2025 年我們將再次受益於第三方評分提供者的定價行動。我們預計第一季抵押貸款諮詢量將下降 10% 以上。除抵押貸款外，我們預計業務將以有機固定匯率計算成長 3% 至 4%。

We expect adjusted EBITDA to be between $376 million and $384 million, up 5% to 7%. We expect adjusted EBITDA margin of 35.5% to 35.8%, up 40 to 70 basis points, driven primarily by the annualization of transformation cost savings. We also expect our adjusted diluted earnings per share to be between $0.96 and $0.99, up 4% to 8%.

我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 在 3.76 億美元至 3.84 億美元之間，成長 5% 至 7%。我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 35.5% 至 35.8%，上漲 40 至 70 個基點，主要受轉型成本節約的年化推動。我們也預期調整後每股攤薄收益在 0.96 美元至 0.99 美元之間，成長 4% 至 8%。

Turning to the full year. Our guidance does not include any impact from our announced acquisitions of Monevo nor TransUnion de Mexico, which have not yet closed. We anticipate FX to be a 1% headwind to revenue and adjusted EBITDA.

展望全年。我們的預期並不包括我們宣布的 Monevo 和 TransUnion de Mexico 的收購所產生的影響，因為這些收購尚未完成。我們預計外匯將對收入和調整後 EBITDA 造成 1% 的阻力。

We expect revenue to come in between $4.333 billion and $4.393 billion, or up 4.5% to 6% on an organic constant currency basis. We expect our organic constant currency growth excluding mortgage to be up 2.5% to 4%. These growth rates include a 1% headwind from lapping against last year's large breach win.

我們預計營收將在 43.33 億美元至 43.93 億美元之間，以有機固定匯率計算成長 4.5% 至 6%。我們預計，不包括抵押貸款的有機固定匯率成長率將達到 2.5% 至 4%。這些成長率包括了與去年大突破勝利相抵觸的 1% 逆風。

For our business segments, we expect US markets to grow mid-single digits or up low single digit, excluding mortgage. We anticipate financial services to be up low double digit or mid-single digit excluding mortgage. We expect mortgage revenue to increase about 20% despite modest declines in mortgage inquiries.

對於我們的業務部門，我們預計美國市場（不包括抵押貸款）將實現中等個位數成長或低個位數成長。我們預計（不包括抵押貸款）金融服務業務的成長速度將達到低兩位數或中個位數。儘管抵押貸款諮詢量略有下降，但我們預計抵押貸款收入將成長約 20%。

We expect emerging verticals to be up mid-single digit. We anticipate Consumer Interactive decreasing low single digit, but increased low single digit when excluding the impact of last year's large breach win. This underlying improvement from 2024 provides a foundation for further acceleration in 2026 and beyond as we execute on the growth strategy that Chris laid out and gain traction with our freemium offering. We anticipate international growing high single digits.

我們預計新興垂直產業將實現中等個位數成長。我們預期消費者互動業務將下降低個位數，但如果排除去年巨額違約勝利的影響，則將增加低個位數。隨著我們執行克里斯制定的成長策略並透過免費增值產品獲得發展，2024 年以來這一潛在改善為 2026 年及以後的進一步加速奠定了基礎。我們預計國際成長率將達到個位數。

Turning back to total company outlook. We expect adjusted EBITDA to be between $1.549 billion and $1.590 billion, up 3% to 6%. That would result in adjusted EBITDA margin of 35.8% to 36.2%, down 20 to up 20 basis points. We anticipated adjusted diluted earnings per share to be $3.93 to $4.08, up 1% to 4%. FX is a 2 percentage point headwind to adjusted diluted earnings per share growth and higher adjusted tax rate is an additional 4 percentage point headwind.

回顧整個公司的前景。我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 在 15.49 億美元至 15.90 億美元之間，成長 3% 至 6%。這將導致調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率從 35.8% 降至 36.2%，下降 20 個基點至上升 20 個基點。我們預計調整後每股攤薄收益為 3.93 美元至 4.08 美元，成長 1% 至 4%。外匯對調整後每股攤薄收益成長造成 2 個百分點的阻力，而更高的調整後稅率又造成 4 個百分點的阻力。

Depreciation and amortization is expected to be approximately $570 million. We expect the portion excluding step-up amortization from our 2012 change in control and subsequent acquisitions to be about $285 million as technology modernization initiatives go into production and start to depreciate.

預計折舊和攤提約 5.7 億美元。我們預計，隨著技術現代化計劃投入生產並開始折舊，2012 年控制權變更和後續收購中不包括逐步攤銷的部分將達到約 2.85 億美元。

We anticipate net interest expense will be about $195 million for the full year, roughly $40 million lower than last year due to our prepayments and refinancing as well as lower SOFR. We expect our adjusted tax rate to be approximately 26.5%, which is higher than 2024. Like many large multinational companies, we are impacted by global tax reform driven by the OECD, such as the global minimum tax and changes to international tax treaties.

我們預計全年淨利息支出約為 1.95 億美元，比去年低約 4,000 萬美元，原因是我們的預付款和再融資以及較低的 SOFR。我們預計調整後的稅率約為 26.5%，高於 2024 年。與許多大型跨國公司一樣，我們受到經合組織推動的全球稅收改革的影響，例如全球最低稅率和國際稅收條約的變化。

Over the last six months, we have taken actions to restructure our legal entities to respond to the changing global tax environment. We remain focused on maintaining the most efficient tax structure, but expect our adjusted tax rate for 2025 and going forward to be higher than our recent historical rate given the current international tax landscape. Capital expenditures are expected to be about 8% of revenue. We expect to incur $100 million to $120 million in one-time charges in 2025 related to the last year of our transformation program.

在過去的六個月中，我們採取行動重組我們的法人實體，以應對不斷變化的全球稅收環境。我們仍然致力於維持最有效的稅收結構，但鑑於目前的國際稅收狀況，預計 2025 年及以後的調整後稅率將高於近期的歷史稅率。預計資本支出約佔收入的8%。我們預計，2025 年將產生與轉型計畫最後一年相關的 1 億至 1.2 億美元的一次性費用。

Slide 26 provides additional details on the drivers of adjusted EBITDA growth in 2025 based on the high end of our guidance. We broke the drivers down into three components. First is the incremental revenue flow-through less normal course people and cost inflation. Based on the high end of guidance, we expect $209 million of revenue growth to drive $104 million of incremental adjusted EBITDA.

幻燈片 26 根據我們的指導高端提供了有關 2025 年調整後 EBITDA 成長驅動因素的更多詳細資訊。我們將驅動因素分為三個部分。首先是增量收入流減去正常流程人員和成本通膨。根據指引的高端，我們預計 2.09 億美元的營收成長將推動 1.04 億美元的增量調整後 EBITDA。

This represents healthy incremental margins even with significant revenue growth derived from Trusted Call Solutions and mortgage scores pricing two areas with high royalty costs. We also expect a $10 million benefit from annualizing transformation savings based on actions taken in early 2024. We have now achieved $95 million of run rate transformation savings. Remaining savings, primarily driven by our technology modernization, will be realized in 2026. Partially offsetting these positives are $30 million of targeted growth investments.

儘管 Trusted Call Solutions 和抵押貸款評分定價這兩個特許權使用費較高的領域帶來了顯著的收入成長，但這仍代表著健康的增量利潤率。根據 2024 年初採取的行動，我們也預期年度轉型節省將帶來 1,000 萬美元的收益。我們現在已經實現了 9500 萬美元的運行率轉型節約。剩餘的節省主要得益於我們的技術現代化，將於 2026 年實現。3000萬美元的針對性成長投資部分抵消了這些正面影響。

This year, we allocated growth investments in support of the strategic initiatives that Chris discussed, including technology and platform enhancements, new product innovation, incremental sales specialists and international expansion. We have incorporated an appropriate level of growth investment in addition to normal course cost inflation into our guidance, so we would expect any revenue growth upside to come at strong incremental margins.

今年，我們分配了成長投資來支持克里斯所討論的策略性舉措，包括技術和平台增強、新產品創新、增量銷售專家和國際擴張。除了正常的成本通膨之外，我們還將適當的成長投資納入了我們的指導範圍，因此我們預計任何收入成長都將帶來強勁的增量利潤率。

Before turning it back to Chris, I want to provide our refreshed perspective on capital allocation priorities. With our leverage ratio at 3 times at year-end and further natural delevering anticipated in 2025 with a strengthening free cash flow profile, we anticipate a more balanced capital allocation going forward, including increased return to shareholders over the medium term. I want to spend the next few minutes laying out our path to improving free cash flow, our priorities for capital deployment and an updated leverage ratio target, and how we define our high bar for M&A going forward.

在把話題轉回克里斯之前，我想先提供我們對資本配置優先事項的新看法。由於我們年底的槓桿率為 3 倍，並且預計 2025 年將進一步自然去槓桿，同時自由現金流狀況將增強，我們預計未來的資本配置將更加均衡，包括中期股東回報增加。接下來的幾分鐘我想闡述我們改善自由現金流的途徑、資本配置的優先事項和更新後的槓桿率目標，以及我們如何定義未來併購的高標準。

Starting with our free cash flow profile. Our free cash flow conversion, as defined as cash flow from operations less capital expenditures, as a percentage of adjusted net income has been lower over the last three years due to higher onetime expenses related to our operating model optimization, technology modernization and Neustar integration.

從我們的自由現金流狀況開始。我們的自由現金流轉換率（定義為經營活動產生的現金流減去資本支出）佔調整後淨收入的百分比在過去三年中有所下降，原因是與我們的營運模式優化、技術現代化和 Neustar 整合相關的一次性費用增加。

We expect free cash flow conversion in 2025 to improve to about 70% as we execute on the last year of our transformation program. Starting in 2026 and beyond, we expect to return to 90% plus free cash flow conversion. We do not anticipate further accelerated technology investment add-backs upon completion of our current program in addition to delivering roughly $130 million of operating expense savings from the program.

隨著我們執行轉型計畫的最後一年，我們預計 2025 年自由現金流轉換率將提高到 70% 左右。從 2026 年開始及以後，我們預計自由現金流轉換率將恢復到 90% 以上。我們預計，在完成目前專案後，除了可從該專案節省約 1.3 億美元的營運費用外，不會再進一步加速技術投資的增加。

We also expect to structurally lower our capital intensity to 6% of revenue in 2026 and beyond with an increasing tilt to more product and growth-related capital investment. Healthy earnings growth and stronger free cash flow conversion is expected to create significant capital capacity over the next few years. We plan to take a balanced capital allocation approach.

我們也預計到 2026 年及以後將資本密集度結構性降低至收入的 6%，並且更傾向於產品和成長相關的資本投資。健康的獲利成長和更強勁的自由現金流轉換預計將在未來幾年創造巨大的資本能力。我們計劃採取平衡的資本配置方法。

Our priority remains to invest to grow the business. We expect to expand margins while funding organic investments supported by revenue growth and ongoing business optimization. I will discuss our M&A strategy shortly, but we will explore bolt-on opportunities aligned to our growth strategy and currently do not anticipate large-scale acquisitions.

我們的首要任務仍然是投資以發展業務。我們希望擴大利潤率，同時透過收入成長和持續的業務優化為有機投資提供資金。我將很快討論我們的併購策略，但我們將探索與我們的成長策略一致的附加機會，目前我們不預期大規模收購。

Turning to leverage and liquidity. We are updating our leverage ratio target to under 2.5 times. We believe this is an appropriate target for a company of our size and maturity. We expect natural deleveraging from adjusted EBITDA growth in 2025. Additionally, we will look for opportunities to optimize our debt structure and evaluate voluntary prepayments.

轉向槓桿和流動性。我們將槓桿率目標更新為2.5倍以下。我們相信，對於我們這種規模和成熟度的公司來說，這是一個合適的目標。我們預計，2025 年調整後的 EBITDA 成長將帶來自然去槓桿。此外，我們將尋找機會優化債務結構並評估自願預付款。

Our stronger free cash flow and optimized leverage will enable us to deploy more cash to shareholder returns than has previously been our practice as a public company. We remain committed to growing our dividend alongside adjusted net income at a 10% to 15% payout ratio. And today, we announced that we are raising our quarterly cash dividend from $0.105 to $0.115. We also expect an increased bias toward share repurchases going forward, which we view as an attractive use of capital at our current valuation.

我們更強勁的自由現金流和優化的槓桿率將使我們能夠部署更多現金來回報股東，而這比我們作為上市公司以往的做法還要多。我們仍致力於以 10% 至 15% 的派息率增加股息和調整後淨收入。今天，我們宣布將季度現金股利從 0.105 美元提高到 0.115 美元。我們也預期未來股票回購的傾向將會增加，我們認為以目前的估值來看，這是一種很有吸引力的資本用途。

Today, we announced that TransUnion's Board of Directors authorized a new $500 million share repurchase program, which replaces all prior repurchase authorizations. We plan to repurchase a modest level of shares this year. Our pace of repurchases in 2025 will be lower than what we anticipate over the medium term as we balance continued delevering and managing capital ahead of our TransUnion de Mexico acquisition.

今天，我們宣布 TransUnion 董事會批准了一項新的 5 億美元股票回購計劃，以取代先前的所有回購授權。我們計劃今年回購少量股票。由於我們需要在收購 TransUnion de Mexico 之前平衡持續去槓桿和資本管理，因此 2025 年我們的回購速度將低於中期預期。

Finally, I want to detail our disciplined approach to M&A. We view M&A as an important strategic tool, but the strength of our portfolio as well as our focus on ongoing business transformation creates a high bar. We are not seeking large-scale acquisitions but consider highly strategic and accretive bolt-ons. Our recently announced smaller acquisition of Monevo and particularly our acquisition of Mexico represent acquisitions that pass our criteria.

最後，我想詳細介紹我們對併購的嚴謹態度。我們將併購視為重要的策略工具，但我們投資組合的實力以及我們對持續業務轉型的關注設定了很高的標準。我們不是尋求大規模的收購，而是考慮高度策略性和增值性的附加投資。我們最近宣布的 Monevo 的小規模收購以及特別是對墨西哥的收購都符合我們的標準。

These are two businesses in which we already had minority investments and high strategic interest. We do not anticipate further sizable M&A in 2025. Bolt-on M&A will be compared to all alternatives, organic investment, debt prepayments and share repurchases in addition to looking for acquisitions with attractive cash-on-cash returns and unlevered internal rates of return in excess of their cost of capital. We have several financial guideposts.

我們對這兩項業務已持有少數股權投資和高度策略利益。我們預計 2025 年不會出現進一步的大規模併購。附加併購將與所有替代方案、有機投資、債務預付和股票回購進行比較，此外還尋找具有有吸引力的現金回報和超過資本成本的無槓桿內部收益率的收購。我們有幾個財務路標。

We are looking for businesses that are additive to our revenue growth rate, have a path to scale profitability to company level margins and can be accretive to adjusted diluted earnings per share by year two. If an acquisition takes us above our leverage ratio target, we want clear line of sight to be able to return to our leverage ratio range within a year.

我們正在尋找能夠提高我們的營收成長率、能夠將獲利能力擴大到公司水準利潤率、並能在第二年增加調整後每股攤薄收益的業務。如果收購使我們的槓桿率超出了我們的目標，我們希望能夠在一年內回到我們的槓桿率範圍。

In closing, our refreshed capital allocation framework reflects TransUnion entering a new era. Our current portfolio and transformation strategy positions us for a generation of growth. We expect to accelerate free cash flow growth to support this balanced capital allocation strategy.

最後，我們更新的資本配置框架反映了 TransUnion 進入了一個新時代。我們目前的投資組合和轉型策略為我們新一代的成長奠定了基礎。我們希望加速自由現金流成長以支持這項平衡的資本配置策略。

I will now turn the call back to Chris for final comments.

現在我將把電話轉回給克里斯，請他發表最後的評論。

Thanks, Todd. To wrap up, we finished the year strong, exceeding fourth quarter guidance for revenue and adjusted EBITDA. We expect to deliver 4.5% to 6% organic constant currency revenue growth in 2025, assuming a muted but stable market backdrop with material future revenue and margin upside when US credit market conditions improve. And we're executing well against our business transformation to create a world-class operating model to modernize our technology capabilities and accelerate innovation.

謝謝，托德。總而言之，我們以強勁的業績結束了這一年度，第四季度的營收和調整後 EBITDA 都超過了預期。假設市場背景平淡但穩定，且當美國信貸市場狀況改善時，未來收入和利潤率將大幅上升，我們預計 2025 年將實現 4.5% 至 6% 的有機固定匯率收入成長。我們正在順利執行業務轉型，創造世界一流的營運模式，實現技術能力的現代化並加速創新。

And with that, I turn it back over to Greg.

說完這些，我把話題轉回給格雷格。

That concludes our prepared remarks. (Event Instructions) Operator, we can begin the Q&A.

我們的準備好的演講到此結束。(活動指導) 接線員，我們可以開始問答了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Jeff Meuler, Baird.

傑夫·穆勒，貝爾德。

Thank you. Good morning. So I hear you on fifth consecutive quarter above consensus and you're saying prudent conservative guidance methodology and the numbers appear conservative. But I'm trying to reconcile that with the high end of the guidance range, assuming similar conditions in 2024, I guess, are you viewing stable markets as a prudent or conservative assumption given that you're showing the markets are cyclically depressed and leading indicators are looking better? Or just any help reconciling those thoughts?

謝謝。早安.因此，我聽說您連續第五個季度的業績高於預期，並且您說的是審慎保守的指導方法，而且這些數字看起來很保守。但我試圖將其與指導範圍的高端相協調，假設 2024 年的情況類似，我想，考慮到您表明市場週期性低迷且領先指標看起來更好，您是否將穩定市場視為審慎或保守的假設？或只是提供任何幫助來調和這些想法？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah. Sure. Jeff, let me start off. What we're trying to convey here in the guide is that the business conditions that we experienced in the fourth quarter and in roughly the first six weeks of the year are fairly consistent. We appreciate the stability that we experienced over the course of '24 and in Q4 and year-to-date. But it's important to point out that those market conditions, while stable, are still muted relative to longer-term origination patterns.

是的。當然。傑夫，讓我先開始吧。我們在指南中試圖傳達的是，我們在第四季和今年大約前六週經歷的商業狀況相當一致。我們很欣賞 2024 年以及第四季和今年迄今所經歷的穩定性。但必須指出的是，這些市場條件雖然穩定，但相對於長期發起模式而言仍較為溫和。

So in this first call of the year, where we're establishing the guidance framework for '25, we want to be prudently conservative in establishing the guardrails. We're not assuming any substantial improvement in market conditions over the course of the year.

因此，在今年第一次電話會議上，我們正​​在製定 25 年的指導框架，我們希望在建立護欄時採取審慎保守的態度。我們並不認為今年市場狀況會有任何實質的改善。

We're not assuming lowering of interest rates or anything like that. We're just saying the macro conditions, which are pretty good, but not great, will continue to be so, and we'll continue to increase our bookings, convert that to revenue, retain our customers, benefit from our improved innovation across the range of products and post solid growth over the course of the year.

我們不認為會降低利率或諸如此類的事情。我們只是說，宏觀條件還不錯，但不是很好，而且這種情況還會繼續，我們將繼續增加預訂量，將其轉化為收入，留住客戶，受益於我們整個產品系列的改進創新，並在一年內實現穩健的增長。

Now if you look back just a year when we guided at the beginning of 2024, we had a very similar view of market conditions. We guided 3% to 5% at that point in time. We said it was prudent and it was conservative and it wasn't assuming any macro upsides over the course of the year. And we were fortunate, we were able to materially outperform those numbers. So hopefully, that gives you some context to how to think about the guide for '25. Todd, is there anything -- no, Todd's good. Okay.

現在，如果回顧我們在 2024 年初指導的一年，我們對市場狀況的看法非常相似。我們當時的預期是 3% 到 5%。我們說這是審慎和保守的，並且不假設今年會出現任何宏觀上行趨勢。我們很幸運，我們能夠大幅超越這些數字。所以希望，這能給你一些關於如何思考 '25 指南的背景資訊。托德，有什麼事嗎——不，托德很好。好的。

Andrew Steinerman, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的安德魯‧施泰納曼。

I wanted to ask about the CI revenues for 2025, looking up low single digits, excluding the breach revenues from '24. How do you think indirect and direct will each fare in '25? And might the new branded freemium offer affect TRU's revenues from other indirect partners.

我想詢問 2025 年的 CI 收入，找出低個位數，不包括'24 年的違約收入。您認為 25 年間接和直接方式的前景如何？新的品牌免費加值服務是否會影響 TRU 來自其他間接合作夥伴的收入？

Yeah. I mean, let's step back just for a second, Andrew, from the specific growth rates of those two components of the business. And just recognize that today's announcement is a big step forward in TransUnion's innovation and also kind of rehabilitating the consumer business. For some time, we've said that we needed to have a broader range of products to fully monetize the consumer traffic that we were naturally generating from our brand and also our advertising efforts.

是的。我的意思是，安德魯，讓我們暫時回顧一下這兩個業務組成部分的具體成長率。請大家體認到，今天的公告是 TransUnion 創新的一大步，也是恢復消費者事業的一大步。一段時間以來，我們一直說，我們需要擁有更廣泛的產品系列，以便充分利用我們的品牌和廣告活動自然產生的消費者流量。

Of course, we were good about credit education, credit score access and single and tri-bureau monitoring, but we needed identity protection and breach remediation. We got it with Sontiq, and we've grown that business dramatically. We also needed a broad offers capability to support a freemium product. And we needed to redesign our front-end user interface to integrate those three key service areas into something that was appealing and accessible to consumers.

當然，我們在信用教育、信用評分取得以及單局和三局監控方面做得很好，但我們需要身分保護和違規補救。我們透過 Sontiq 實現了這一目標，並且使該業務實現了大幅成長。我們還需要廣泛的提供能力來支援免費增值產品。我們需要重新設計我們的前端使用者介面，將這三個關鍵服務領域整合成一個對消費者有吸引力且易於存取的東西。

In this partnership with Sesame, and again, Sesame has been a strategic partner of ours for some time now, we get a great user interface. We get a great app. We get a mature offers engine. And again, as we mentioned in our commentary with the acquisition of Monevo which we feel is a world-class offers engine, we've got a path to integrating that product into the revised GUI.

這次與 Sesame 合作，Sesame 也成為我們的策略夥伴一段時間了，我們獲得了非常棒的使用者介面。我們得到了一個很棒的應用程式。我們獲得了一個成熟的報價引擎。再次，正如我們在收購 Monevo 的評論中提到的那樣，我們認為它是一個世界級的報價引擎，我們已經找到了將該產品整合到修訂後的 GUI 中的途徑。

So we have accomplished all of the strategic improvements in the product line that we set out to do. That should translate into better growth in our direct-to-consumer business, but also better growth in our indirect business over time because we're now bringing multiple products with a refined user interface and API to our indirect customers. So it's a strategic reset in the business, and I think it's a real positive.

因此，我們完成了我們計劃進行的所有產品線策略改進。這不僅意味著我們直接面向消費者的業務將實現更好的成長，而且隨著時間的推移，我們的間接業務也將實現更好的成長，因為我們現在為間接客戶帶來了具有完善用戶介面和 API 的多種產品。所以這是業務的策略重置，我認為這是一件非常積極的事情。

Toni Kaplan, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的東尼卡普蘭。

Thanks so much. I want to ask about India. I know that your guidance does typically try to be conservative. 10% just does seem like a really big slowdown, but I know that there's a lot that's going on in that market. I guess how much visibility do you have into sort of the growth there? And what could drive upside or downside to the 10%?

非常感謝。我想問一下印度的情況。我知道您的指導確實通常傾向保守。 10% 確實看起來是一個巨大的放緩，但我知道這個市場上正在發生很多事情。我猜您對那裡的成長有多少了解？那麼，哪些因素可能導致 10% 的上漲或下跌呢？

Yeah. Let me start at a high level here because we've been talking about the slowdown in the Indian market as orchestrated by the RBI for about four quarters now. And there have been a number of policy as well as leadership changes within the RBI that are important to understand. The previous governor of the RBI, whose term ended late last year after five years, has been replaced by a different governor. There has also been a shift in the stated policy toward the lending markets by the RBI, and you can read the recent announcement from the RBI about this.

是的。讓我從高層次開始講，因為我們已經討論了印度儲備銀行策劃的印度市場放緩問題大約四個季度了。印度儲備銀行內部已經發生了一些政策和領導層變動，這些變動很重要。印度儲備銀行前行長的五年任期已於去年底結束，現已被另一位行長取代。印度儲備銀行針對貸款市場的政策也發生了變化，您可以閱讀印度儲備銀行最近發布的有關此問題的公告。

But in short, last year, the previous administration was purposely trying to decelerate lending volumes. They were concerned by some of the practices they saw in the market and they asked certain lenders to pause their lending operations, right? And they also were trying to get banks the loan-to-deposit ratios to improve. They felt like they'd become a little bit stretched. As a consequence of that, GDP in India slowed.

但簡而言之，去年，上一屆政府有意試圖減速貸款量。他們對市場上看到的一些做法感到擔憂，並要求某些貸方暫停貸款業務，對嗎？他們也試圖讓銀行提高貸存比。他們覺得自己好像變得有點疲憊了。受此影響，印度的 GDP 成長放緩。

And so the RBI has now stated a bit of a policy modification where they're going to emphasize, of course, safety and soundness as the prior leadership did, but also the efficiency of the economy, right? So they're signaling that they are rebalancing toward growth and driving India GDP growth overall. And to support that, they recently cut rates by 25 bps, and they've announced that they have achieved their goals on loan deposit ratios and those few lenders that have been sidelined now have permission to begin origination.

因此，印度儲備銀行現在已經宣布了一些政策修改，他們當然會像前任領導層一樣強調安全性和穩健性，但也會強調經濟的效率，對嗎？因此，他們發出信號表明，他們正在重新平衡成長並推動印度整體 GDP 成長。為了支持這一目標，他們最近將利率降低了 25 個基點，並宣布他們已經實現了貸款存款比率的目標，而那些被邊緣化的少數貸款機構現在已獲準開始發放貸款。

So we think that's a sea change in policy. That said, the conflict in the policies has led to some bumpiness in the performance of the consumer lending side of our India business, which again is about 60%. So it's been slowing down over '24 quarter-over-quarter against very high comps, I might add. And we would expect in '25 quarter-over-quarter reacceleration as the shift in policy permeates through the market.

因此我們認為這是政策的重大變化。儘管如此，政策衝突導致我們印度業務的消費貸款部分錶現有些不穩定，這一比例也達到了 60% 左右。因此，我想補充一點，與非常高的同店銷售額相比，24 年季度環比增長一直在放緩。隨著政策轉變滲透到市場，我們預計 2025 年季度將季比成長將再次加速。

Thank you. All right.

謝謝。好的。

Faiza Alwy, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的 Faiza Alwy。

Thank you. I wanted to ask about mortgage. So a couple of related questions. So the down 10% inquiry decline in the first quarter and then modest declines for the year. I'm assuming that, that is related to what you're seeing with soft polls or prequal. So maybe give us some perspective there and whether you think we're done with the shift towards these one-bureau soft polls. And any perspective on pricing that you're taking broadly in mortgage?

謝謝。我想問一下關於抵押貸款的事情。以下是幾個相關的問題。因此，第一季的詢價量下降了 10%，全年也小幅下降。我認為，這與你在軟民意調查或預選賽中看到的情況有關。因此，請您給我們一些觀點，看看您是否認為我們已經完成了向單一局軟民意調查的轉變。您對抵押貸款的定價有何看法？

Okay. Great. Faiza, thanks for the question. I'll take this one for you. So as far as what we're seeing and then how we're guiding mortgage, as you said, first quarter, we're saying down 10% and then down modestly for full year 2025. Consistent with how Chris has talked about the guide for the full year, we are assuming consistent trends with the fourth quarter and what we've been able to see in the first quarter of 2025 to date. So what that means is we don't have any assumption of a benefit from interest rate reductions in our numbers.

好的。偉大的。Faiza，謝謝你的提問。我將為你拿這個。所以就我們所看到的情況以及我們如何指導抵押貸款而言，正如您所說，第一季我們預計下降 10%，然後在 2025 年全年小幅下降。與克里斯談論的全年指南一致，我們假設第四季度的趨勢與我們在 2025 年第一季迄今所能看到的趨勢一致。所以這意味著我們在數據中沒有假設降低利率會帶來什麼好處。

If you're looking to compare our volume number to other numbers that you see from other players in the market space, it is important to remember that we calculate our inquiries differently and that we do include prequalification volumes into that. So as far as what we see is that we're taking a consistent approach as it pertains to pricing as well.

如果您想將我們的交易量與您從市場空間中的其他參與者看到的其他數字進行比較，請務必記住，我們以不同的方式計算我們的詢價，並且我們確實將資格預審量包含在內。就我們所見，我們在定價方面也採取了一致的方法。

We do have a material increase in mortgage from a third-party score provider that we're taking the same approach that we did last year on the pass-through of that. And it also does assume normal course type of pricing on our credit file, which is exclusive of the score, which we also took some opportunistic pricing actions on as well. And specifically to the point on prequalification, what we're seeing today is that the majority of the mortgage revenue is still tri-bureau.

我們從第三方評分提供者獲得的抵押貸款確實大幅增加，我們對此採取了與去年相同的方法。而且它也確實假設我們的信用檔案採用正常的定價類型，這是不包括分數的，我們也採取了一些機會性定價行動。具體到資格預審問題，我們今天看到的是，大部分抵押貸款收入仍然來自三局。

But however, we have in the prequal space seen some shift from three to one to maybe two polls for a prequalification throughout 2024. We've contemplated further shifts within our 2025 guide, where we have visibility. But I think what's most important and instructive is our sales team continues to win our fair share in the prequalification market.

但是，我們在資格預審領域看到，2024 年的資格預審投票從三次轉變為一次，甚至可能是兩次。我們已經考慮了 2025 年指南中的進一步轉變，我們具有可預見性。但我認為最重要的和最有啟發性的是我們的銷售團隊繼續在資格預審市場中贏得公平的份額。

Yeah. And I would just add that it's important that investors understand that it's unlikely the market at prequalification is going to go from pulling three credit reports to one credit report because savings, while important, is also has to be balanced with revenue generation. So what I mean by that is if you're a mortgage provider and a consumer shows up at your door, you've got a revenue opportunity if that consumer qualifies.

是的。我還要補充一點，投資人必須明白，資格預審市場不太可能從三份信用報告減少到一份信用報告，因為節省雖然重要，但也必須與創收保持平衡。我的意思是，如果您是抵押貸款提供商，並且有消費者出現在您家門口，並且該消費者符合條件，那麼您就有創收機會。

Now if you pull one-bureau, the consumer may not qualify. But bureaus have different data and different scores. If you pull more than one, the odds of qualifying that consumer and thus recognizing revenue improve. And so you may see some efficiency here in terms of a reduction in the number of reports pulled, it's not going to be a race to one.

現在，如果你拉一個局，消費者可能不符合條件。但各局的數據不同，分數也不同。如果您拉動多個，那麼獲得該消費者資格並因此確認收入的可能性就會提高。因此，您可能會看到，在減少所提取報告的數量方面，這裡存在一定的效率，這並不是一場爭奪單一報告的競賽。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Manav Patnaik, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Manav Patnaik。

Thank you. I just wanted to touch on slide 8, where you talked about the below trend levels. Broadly, I mean, are you able to quantify like if those kind of return to trend, what -- how that might impact your business? And just as a quick follow-up, I mean, it looks like cards and P loans might be above trend if you're thinking of it as pre-COVID trends. So just curious how you think about that one.

謝謝。我只想談談第 8 張投影片，您在其中談到了以下趨勢水平。廣義上講，我的意思是，您是否能夠量化，如果這些趨勢回歸，那將如何影響您的業務？作為一個快速的後續問題，我的意思是，如果您將其視為 COVID 之前的趨勢，那麼信用卡和 P 貸款似乎可能會高於趨勢。所以只是好奇你對這個有何看法。

Well, Manav, I can't offer you an on-the-fly estimate of value to be captured when we return to normal trend lines. But as you know, volumes have been depressed for a couple of years now plus because of inflation, because of the aggressive rate hikes by the Fed, now that is normalized and eased, we're in a more stable condition which is allowing us to post growth. That said, this administration has said that they're about reducing regulations to enable further growth.

好吧，Manav，當我們回到正常趨勢線時，我無法為您提供要捕獲的價值的即時估計。但正如你所知，幾年來交易量一直處於低迷狀態，再加上通貨膨脹和美聯儲大幅加息的影響，現在這種狀況已經正常化和緩解，我們處於一個更加穩定的狀態，這使我們能夠實現增長。儘管如此，本屆政府已表示他們將減少管制以促進進一步成長。

They want to adopt various fiscal policies and others to accelerate growth and, over time, manage down interest rates. If successful, you would expect that consumers and banks themselves will continue to strengthen, and we can expect higher lending activity across these various categories.

他們希望採取各種財政政策和其他政策來加速成長，並隨著時間的推移降低利率。如果成功的話，你可以預期消費者和銀行本身將繼續增強，並且我們可以預期各個類別的貸款活動都會增加。

So I guess, in sum, I would say the opportunity for volume rebounds, it's not simply mortgage refinancing, which may or may not happen to the degree that's been estimated. But it's really across the whole lending portfolio. And the way we're positioned currently is the upside on a product mix that shifts more toward credit origination, not only does it drive revenue, but it's substantially more profitable because the fall-through is so high.

所以我想，總而言之，我認為交易量反彈的機會不僅僅是抵押貸款再融資，這可能會或可能不會達到預計的程度。但它實際上涉及整個貸款組合。我們目前的定位是，產品組合向信貸發放方向轉變，這不僅可以增加收入，而且由於虧損幅度很高，還可以大幅提高利潤。

And in recent years, we have been posting higher growth in areas that have a lower contribution margin because they come with a licensing cost or just a higher cost of goods sold than the credit products that we originate. As the cycle shifts and as the mix shifts more toward credit, you're going to see margin profit revenue upside that is material across our enterprise. So I think I'll leave it at that.

近年來，我們在貢獻利潤率較低的領域實現了更高的成長，因為這些領域的授權成本或銷售成本高於我們發起的信貸產品。隨著週期的轉變以及組合向信貸的進一步轉變，您將看到整個企業的利潤率和收入都將大幅上升。所以我想我就到此為止了。

Jason Haas, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的傑森·哈斯。

Good morning and thanks for taking my question. I'm curious if you could provide an update on how you're thinking about the regulatory environment, if you've seen any changes or expecting any changes with the new administration coming in, either on your customers or you directly?

早上好，感謝您回答我的問題。我很好奇，您能否介紹一下您對監管環境的看法，隨著新政府的上台，您是否看到或預計會發生任何變化，無論是對您的客戶還是對您直接產生的影響？

Well, Jason, you win the award for most understated question of the call thus far. Yeah, we've seen a few changes at the CFPB and elsewhere. I mean, obviously, this administration has radically different views about regulation and regulation in the financial services industry. And I expect the impact of that is going to be quite material.

好吧，傑森，你贏得了迄今為止電話中最低調的問題獎。是的，我們看到消費者金融保護局和其他地方發生了一些變化。我的意思是，顯然本屆政府對金融服務業的監管和監管有著截然不同的看法。我預計其影響將會十分重大。

As we all know, the incoming administration has asked the CFPB to really cease all activities. They put them on hold, whether it's supervision or enforcement or litigation or whatever the case may be. And they are currently appointing new leadership that is expected to -- well, I guess, to effect really substantial changes in the regulatory environment. And I think we're just going to have to wait and see how that plays out. But right now, it's a pause. It's a limbo, if you will.

眾所周知，新政府已要求消費者金融保護局真正停止所有活動。他們將這些事宜擱置，無論是監管、執法、訴訟或其他任何案件。他們目前正在任命新的領導層，我猜，這有望對監管環境產生真正重大的影響。我認為我們只需要拭目以待，看看事情將如何發展。但現在，它是一個暫停。如果你願意的話，這是一種不確定的狀態。

It really has not affected how we operate, though. We just have to keep focused on doing the right things for customers, trying to serve them as best we can, minimize the errors that we make. And when we do make a mistake, do what we always do, which is work hard to make the customer hold and to fix whatever problem has happened operationally that led to the error. So we're going to keep doing that, and we're going to wait for the regulatory landscape to calm down a bit, and then we'll move forward.

但它確實沒有影響我們的運作方式。我們只需要專注於為客戶做正確的事情，盡力為他們提供最好的服務，並盡量減少我們犯的錯誤。當我們確實犯了錯誤時，我們會像往常一樣，努力讓客戶等待，並解決任何導致錯誤的操作問題。因此我們會繼續這樣做，並等待監管環境稍微平靜下來，然後我們再繼續前進。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Andrew Nicholas, William Blair.

安德魯·尼古拉斯，威廉·布萊爾。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to ask on Neustar specifically and kind of the outlook for next year, maybe not quantitatively, but trying to understand the kind of state of the advertising and marketing business, in particular, whether or not there appears to be any acceleration in appetite or demand from your end clients outside of Trusted Call.

早安.感謝您回答我的問題。我想具體詢問 Neustar 明年的前景，也許不是定量的，而是試圖了解廣告和行銷業務的狀況，特別是，除了 Trusted Call 之外，您的最終客戶的興趣或需求是否有所加速。

Yeah. Well, clearly, of the three pillars of the Neustar business, fraud, marketing and communications, communications has been the outperformer over the first three years of our ownership. And it's helped us average up to mid-single-digit growth during what has been a soft market on both the credit side and our various other product offerings.

是的。顯然，在 Neustar 業務的三大支柱（反詐欺、行銷和溝通）中，溝通在我們擁有的頭三年中一直表現優異。在信貸市場和其他各種產品市場都較為疲軟的背景下，它幫助我們實現了平均個位數的中等成長。

The Neustar story, we believe, is strongly positive in a variety of ways. First, it has been accretive to our average earnings over this period, although I do acknowledge it's certainly below what we'd expected when we first guided the revenue. We've also done a great job at driving profitability at Neustar.

我們相信，Neustar 的故事在許多方面都具有非常積極的意義。首先，它在此期間增加了我們的平均收入，儘管我承認它肯定低​​於我們最初指導收入時的預期。我們在提高 Neustar 獲利能力方面也做得非常出色。

We committed to $70 million in savings. We've delivered $100 million of integration synergies, and we've entirely reconstituted the product portfolio on our new OneTru platform and are accelerating our pipelines and our bookings in fraud, in marketing and, of course, Trusted Call.

我們承諾節省 7,000 萬美元。我們實現了 1 億美元的整合協同效應，並在新的 OneTru 平台上完全重構了產品組合，並且正在加速我們在反詐騙、行銷以及 Trusted Call 方面的管道和預訂。

So over the intermediate and longer term, I expect Neustar growth is going to increase and increase over time to what we guided initially, mainly because we're done digesting the asset, and we have realized much of the innovation benefits of pulling together all of the great marketing solutions that we own with all of their great marketing solutions.

因此，從中期和長期來看，我預計 Neustar 的成長將會隨著時間的推移而不斷增加，達到我們最初的預期，主要是因為我們已經完成了資產的消化，並且我們已經意識到將我們擁有的所有優秀行銷解決方案與他們所有的優秀行銷解決方案整合在一起所帶來的許多創新優勢。

And again, the hidden value in this deal was the underlying technology, which has now seeded a complete modernization of our tech stack in the US and eventually globally starting in '26. As I indicated in my remarks, we've already identified the countries that we're going to migrate on to this platform. And look, I think it's really powerful.

而且，這筆交易的隱藏價值是底層技術，該技術現已在美國為我們的技術堆疊的全面現代化奠定了基礎，並最終從26年開始在全球範圍內推行。正如我在演講中指出的，我們已經確定了要遷移到該平台的國家。你看，我認為它真的很強大。

We have said as part of our next-gen program that we're going to save $200 million in free cash flow once we fully realize the benefits of our tech modernization and our global operating model. That $200 million in savings, hard savings from our tech modernization, first, it's unique in our industry, right? And I think it reflects how profound the tech benefits are. And secondly, it's also accelerating our innovation, as you can see with the long list of next-generation products that we brought to market next year.

我們曾表示，作為下一代計畫的一部分，一旦我們充分認識到技術現代化和全球營運模式的好處，我們將節省 2 億美元的自由現金流。首先，這 2 億美元的節省，是我們技術現代化帶來的實實在在的節省，這在我們的行業中是獨一無二的，對吧？我認為這體現了科技帶來的巨大效益。其次，它也加速了我們的創新，正如你們從我們明年將向市場推出的一系列下一代產品中看到的那樣。

Now in terms of the next quarter or over the course of this year, do we see a material improvement in the market? Perhaps. But we don't see any worsening, and we're highly confident that we're positioned to compete much, much better in both fraud and marketing over the course of '25.

那麼就下個季度或今年而言，我們是否看到市場出現實質改善？也許。但我們並沒有看到任何惡化的情況，我們非常有信心，在25年內，我們將在詐欺和行銷方面具有更好的競爭力。

Ashish Sabadra, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Ashish Sabadra。

Just wanted to focus on the margins. Obviously, the growth investments are almost like a 70 basis point of headwind to margins this year. But as we think about over the midterm, how do you balance the growth investments with the operating leverage and continue to drive much more robust margin expansion?

只是想專注於邊緣。顯然，成長投資幾乎對今年的利潤率造成了 70 個基點的阻力。但是，當我們考慮中期時，如何平衡成長投資和經營槓桿，並繼續推動更強勁的利潤率成長？

Ashish. So yeah, if you're referring to the bridge that we provided for our adjusted EBITDA growth year-over-year, let's just talk about the columns that you're seeing there. When you look at the first column, we're basically -- if you look at the high end of guidance, it's about $209 million of revenue, incremental, and EBITDA is about $104 million, which would suggest about a 50% margin flow-through.

阿希什。是的，如果您指的是我們為調整後的 EBITDA 同比增長提供的橋樑，那麼我們只討論您在那裡看到的列。當您查看第一列時，我們基本上是 - 如果您查看指導的高端，則其收入約為 2.09 億美元，增量，EBITDA 約為 1.04 億美元，這意味著利潤率流動約為 50%。

What's important to call out here is that, that bar doesn't just capture our revenue less our variable product cost. We also put a lot of our other normal course expenses in there, such as merit increases as well as the cost for our technology and the replatforming, the software expense, the cloud expense.

這裡需要強調的是，該條不僅僅反映我們的收入減去可變產品成本。我們也將許多其他正常的開支都投入了其中，例如績效加薪、技術和平台重構成本、軟體費用、雲端運算費用。

The revenue growth, as Chris just said in a prior response, has been skewed more towards our Trusted Call Solutions as well as third-party scores, which do carry higher operating expense and has a lower contribution margin. Still a really attractive contribution margin, but nevertheless, lower than just selling pure credit.

正如克里斯在先前的回應中所說，收入成長更偏向於我們的可信任呼叫解決方案以及第三方評分，這些業務的營運費用更高，貢獻利潤率更低。這仍然是一個非常有吸引力的貢獻利潤率，但仍然低於僅僅銷售純信貸。

So to the point that Chris was making, and it was pertaining to the question that Manav had asked, if there's a material impact in -- positive impact in credit volume throughout 2025, you'll see a really good flow-through and this bar will look significantly better. If you look at the second bar, that is the $10 million. That's on top of the $85 million that we realized in 2024.

所以對於 Chris 提出的觀點，以及與 Manav 提出的問題相關的觀點，如果對 2025 年全年的信貸量產生實質性影響（積極影響），那麼您將看到非常好的流通，並且這個標準將看起來好得多。如果你看第二條柱子，那就是 1000 萬美元。這是我們在 2024 年實現的 8,500 萬美元的基礎上的額外收入。

So we get another $10 million benefit. And as you know, we're not done with the transformation program. Always our intention that our transformation program would take through the end of 2025 and in that we were going to enjoy a significant amount of margin increase in '24, which was 90 basis points related to that $85 million plus the other business performance. So there's more cost savings that will come in 2026 at the conclusion of the tech modernization.

因此我們又獲得了1000萬美元的收益。如你所知，我們的轉型計劃尚未完成。我們的目標始終是，我們的轉型計畫將持續到 2025 年底，這樣，我們將在 24 年享受大幅的利潤率成長，即與 8,500 萬美元加上其他業務績效相關的 90 個基點。因此，到 2026 年技術現代化完成後，將會節省更多成本。

The final bar that you see is our attempt to be transparent with you. We're showing you intentionally where we are putting investment dollars. So everything that's not in that first bucket, we put into this last category. And you can see is what's included in there are further enhancements for the technology, product innovation.

您看到的最後一欄是我們試圖對您保持透明。我們有意向您展示我們的投資方向。因此，所有不屬於第一個類別的內容，我們都放入最後一個類別。您可以看到其中包含了對技術和產品創新的進一步增強。

So to the question about Neustar that Chris just answered, a lot of costs still going in to enable our new platforms like TruAudience for marketing and TruValidate for fraud, which we put into place in 2024. But also we need incremental specialists, whether that's on the product side or the sales side. So that's contemplated in this number.

對於 Chris 剛剛回答的有關 Neustar 的問題，我們仍需要投入大量成本來啟用我們的新平台，例如用於行銷的 TruAudience 和用於詐騙的 TruValidate，我們將於 2024 年投入使用。但我們也需要增量專家，無論是在產品方面或銷售方面。這個數字已經考慮到了這一點。

And then last piece of it, as it's noted on the slide, and it's just worth a second to talk about it is the international expansion. Our international portfolio continues to perform really well. We've seen some softening in India. We don't believe that, that's a structural issue. It's more of a cyclical impact to the business. We're super excited about the favorable demographics in that market.

最後一點，正如幻燈片上所指出的，值得花一點時間來談論的是國際擴張。我們的國際投資組合持續表現良好。我們看到印度有所軟化。我們不相信，這是一個結構性問題。這對業務的影響更大一些。我們對該市場的有利人口結構感到非常興奮。

The government supporting financial inclusion. And just overall, how we've diversified the portfolio and the benefit that we get there. So what that means is we need to continue to invest in areas like India. So that's what you're seeing here. So we're taking a very long-term approach towards how we build this guidance for EBITDA, thinking about the future and making certain we're making the necessary investments.

政府支持金融包容性。總的來說，我們如何實現投資組合多樣化以及我們從中獲得的利益。所以這意味著我們需要繼續在印度等地區投資。這就是您在這裡看到的。因此，我們採取非常長期的方法來制定 EBITDA 指引，考慮未來並確保我們進行必要的投資。

Surinder Thind, Jefferies.

蘇林德·廷德（Surinder Thind），傑富瑞（Jefferies）。

Thank you. Chris, as you think about innovation in terms of your product road map and everything that's coming out, as the rollout of products accelerate, what does that mean for your growth rate? Is that -- should we be, when we look in the outer years, perhaps entering a period of above-trend growth, all else equal? Or is that intended to kind of support what would be a normalized growth rate?

謝謝。克里斯，當您從產品路線圖和所有即將推出的產品的角度考慮創新時，隨著產品推出的加速，這對您的成長率意味著什麼？那是不是說——當我們展望未來幾年時，在其他所有條件相同的情況下，我們也許應該進入一個高於趨勢的成長時期？或者這是否是為了支持正常化的成長率？

Well, during the turbulence of the prior years, we withdrew our long-term growth guide. But I think we have said that we continue to believe that this business can and will compound at high single revenue growth. And we achieved 9% last year. That's terrific. We're guiding 4.5% to 6% this year.

嗯，在前幾年的動盪期間，我們撤回了長期成長指南。但我想我們已經說過，我們仍然相信這項業務能夠而且將會實現較高的單筆收入成長率。去年我們實現了 9% 的成長。太棒了。我們預計今年的成長速度為 4.5% 至 6%。

Now that said, this is the beginning of the year, and we've been prudent and conservative in issuing that guide. And look, last year, and I'll say it again this year, we orient ourselves more towards the high end of these things. That's what we're trying to achieve over the course of the year. I think this innovation and the improvement in our product competitiveness in all these categories is only a net positive to our ability to win and retain and to grow over time. That's the point of it. And look, the reengineering, the replatforming, the innovation is enormously profound.

話雖如此，現在是年初，我們在發布該指南時一直保持謹慎和保守的態度。看看去年，以及今年我再說一遍，我們更傾向於這些產品的高端。這就是我們今年要努力實現的目標。我認為這種創新以及我們在所有這些類別中的產品競爭力的提升對於我們贏得和留住客戶以及隨著時間的推移實現增長的能力都產生了積極的影響。這就是它的重點。瞧，重組、平台重建和創新意義深遠。

I'll give one quick example. Post the Neustar acquisition in the marketing category, if you looked at all of the products that we had built, they had built or had been acquired, we had 87 different marketing point solutions across TransUnion. Those solutions were built on 6 different technology platforms. We have since integrated all 87 down into one integrated end-to-end market solution called TruAudience. And that solution is now a destination workspace for marketers, and it's built on the same platform that has all the credit data and all the fraud-related signal. It's a very powerful step forward in terms of our product capabilities and it's representative of what we're doing in every product category.

我舉一個簡單的例子。在行銷類別中收購 Neustar 之後，如果您查看我們已經製造的、他們已經製造的或被收購的所有產品，我們在整個 TransUnion 擁有 87 種不同的行銷點解決方案。這些解決方案建立在 6 種不同的技術平台上。我們將所有 87 個解決方案整合為一個整合的端到端市場解決方案，名為 TruAudience。該解決方案現在已成為行銷人員的目標工作區，它建立在具有所有信用資料和所有詐欺相關訊號的相同平台上。就我們的產品能力而言，這是一個非常強大的進步，它代表了我們在每個產品類別中所做的事情。

Kelsey Zhu with Autonomous.

Kelsey Zhu 與 Autonomous 合作。

Hi, good morning. So 2024 saw pretty tight credit supply. And I think many investors hold the view that supply side will see improvement in 2025, particularly in the second half of the year. How should we think about customer demand for more credits? What's going to drive the recovery in customer demand, particularly in a higher prolonger rate environment?

嗨，早安。因此，2024 年的信貸供應相當緊張。我認為許多投資者都認為，2025年，尤其是下半年，供應面將會改善。我們該如何看待客戶對更多信貸的需求？什麼因素將推動客戶需求的復甦，特別是在更高的延長率環境下？

Yes. Good question and a good place, I think, to finish on. Well, first, on the supply side, if you go back to 2023 and the third quarter where we experienced a real step down in origination activity in September of that quarter, it was because of a disruption in supply. Rates had increased materially in Q3. Money was migrating out of bank deposits into money market accounts. And of course, the market itself had been destabilized by some uncertainty in bank safety and soundness, Silicon Valley Bank and others.

是的。我認為這個問題問得好，也是一個很好的結束點。首先，在供應方面，如果回顧 2023 年第三季度，我們在該季度 9 月經歷了發起活動的真正下降，這是由於供應中斷造成的。第三季利率大幅上升。資金從銀行存款轉移到貨幣市場帳戶。當然，市場本身也因銀行（包括矽谷銀行等）安全性和穩健性方面的一些不確定性而變得不穩定。

And so the lending industry, the supply side clamped down on deposit, seeking stability. And since that point, they have been consistently replenishing their deposit bases, right? And so if you look at the mid-tier, if you look at community investment banks, et cetera, they've all replenished the supply side, and they're increasingly eager to deploy that, which is why I think the growth rates for the third and the fourth quarter reflect greater availability.

因此貸款業、供給方紛紛壓低存款，尋求穩定。從那時起，他們一直在不斷補充存款基礎，對嗎？所以如果你看看中端銀行、社區投資銀行等等，它們都補充了供應方，而且他們越來越渴望部署這些供應，這就是為什麼我認為第三季和第四季的成長率反映了更大的可用性。

Now you had to contrast that with some concerns about consumer health, right? We had some rising delinquencies in categories that gave some lenders pause. Some of those delinquencies -- many of them actually related to loan vintages that were issued in the COVID era where there was noise in the credit scores.

現在你必須將其與一些對消費者健康的擔憂進行對比，對嗎？某些類別的貸款拖欠率不斷上升，令一些放貸者感到擔憂。其中一些拖欠情況——其中許多實際上與新冠疫情期間發放的貸款有關，當時信用評分存在噪音。

All of the various financial support that the government offered to consumers caused credit scores to drift up, which led to more origination offers under the presumption of stronger consumers. It turned out that, that inflation was temporal, if you will, and that led to higher delinquencies.

政府向消費者提供的各種財政支持導致信用評分上升，從而在消費者更強大的假設下引發了更多的發起要約。事實證明，通貨膨脹是暫時的，並且會導致更高的違約率。

Now that delinquencies are normalizing, if you will, in terms of rates of change and the supply side is healthy and I think we'll remain healthy with higher interest rates driving higher net interest income across financial services, you're positioned to see some improvement in lending activity. I also think consumers are starting to adjust to higher interest rates and realizing that the current rates, while a lot higher during the era of quantitative easing, are not high by historical standards.

現在，拖欠情況正在正常化，如果你願意的話，就變化率和供應方面而言，情況是健康的，我認為我們將保持健康，更高的利率將推動金融服務的淨利息收入增加，你將會看到貸款活動有所改善。我還認為，消費者開始適應更高的利率，並意識到當前的利率雖然在量化寬鬆時期高得多，但以歷史標準來看並不高。

And so you're seeing some more comfort and therefore, more transaction activity. And then the only thing I would point out is that a lot of consumers who got loans, particularly subprime consumers during the COVID era, they levered up their card balances pretty quickly.

因此，您會看到更多的舒適感，以及更多的交易活動。我唯一想指出的是，許多獲得貸款的消費者，尤其是新冠疫情期間的次級貸款消費者，他們很快就增加了信用卡餘額。

Now they need debt consolidation loans. And you're seeing more funding flow back into the fintechs who are really overweight on debt consolidation and many of them are starting to post material increases in their origination volume.

現在他們需要債務合併貸款。你會看到更多的資金回流到那些真正重視債務合併的金融科技公司，其中許多公司的債務發起量開始大幅增加。

So look, those are the dynamics we're looking at. It seems stable to solid. Clearly, things are a bit bumpy right now. Part of that is the change in administration. But some of the underlying dynamics, the macro conditions, the health of the supply side of the industry and consumer fortunes seem pretty solid. So hopefully, that discussion of puts and takes gives you some context.

所以看，這些就是我們正在關注的動態。它看起來很穩定，很堅固。顯然，目前情況有點不順利。部分原因在於政府的變動。但一些潛在的動態、宏觀條件、產業供給面的健康狀況以及消費者的命運似乎相當穩固。因此希望，關於 puts 和 takes 的討論能給你一些背景資訊。

Perfect. I think that's a great place to end the call. Thanks for your time, and have a great rest of the day.

完美的。我認為這是一個結束通話的好地方。感謝您的時間，祝您今天剩餘的時間過得很愉快。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。