Triton International Ltd (TRTN) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Triton International Limited Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). Please note this event is being recorded.

早上好，歡迎來到 Triton International Limited 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）。請注意正在記錄此事件。

I'd now like to turn the conference over to Michael Pearl, CFO. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給首席財務官 Michael Pearl。請繼續。

Thank you, Anthony. Good morning, and thank you for joining us on today's call. We are here to discuss Triton's fourth quarter and full year 2022 results, which were reported this morning. Joining me on today's call from Triton is Brian Sondey, our CEO; and John O'Callaghan, our Head of Global Marketing and Operations.

謝謝你，安東尼。早上好，感謝您參加今天的電話會議。我們在這裡討論 Triton 今早公佈的第四季度和 2022 年全年業績。和我一起參加今天來自 Triton 的電話會議的是我們的首席執行官 Brian Sondey；以及我們的全球營銷和運營主管 John O'Callaghan。

Before I turn the call over to Brian, I would like to note that our prepared remarks will follow along with a presentation that can be found in the Investors section of our website under Investor Presentations. I'd like to direct you to Slide 2 of that presentation and remind you that today's presentation includes forward-looking statements that reflect Triton's current view with respect to future events, financial performance and industry conditions. These forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Triton has provided additional information in its reports on file with the SEC concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in this presentation, and we encourage you to review these factors.

在我將電話轉給 Brian 之前，我想指出，我們準備好的評論將與演示文稿一起發布，該演示文稿可以在我們網站的投資者演示文稿下的投資者部分找到。我想將您帶到該演示文稿的幻燈片 2，並提醒您今天的演示文稿包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述反映了 Triton 當前對未來事件、財務業績和行業狀況的看法。這些前瞻性陳述受各種風險和不確定因素的影響。 Triton 在其提交給 SEC 的報告中提供了有關可能導致實際結果與本演示文稿中包含的結果存在重大差異的因素的其他信息，我們鼓勵您審查這些因素。

In addition, reconciliations of non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure are included in our earnings release and the presentation.

此外，非 GAAP 指標與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標的對賬包含在我們的收益發布和演示文稿中。

I will now turn the call over to Brian.

我現在將把電話轉給布賴恩。

Thanks, Michael. Welcome to Triton International's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Before I start with our formal presentation, I would like to congratulate Michael on his promotion to Chief Financial Officer, and welcome him to our quarterly calls. Congratulations, Michael.

謝謝，邁克爾。歡迎來到 Triton International 的第四季度和 2022 年全年收益電話會議。在開始我們的正式演講之前，我想祝賀邁克爾晉升為首席財務官，並歡迎他參加我們的季度電話會議。祝賀你，邁克爾。

I'll now start with Slide 3 of our presentation. Triton's strong results in the fourth quarter capped an outstanding year for the company. In the fourth quarter, we generated $2.76 of adjusted net income per share and achieved an annualized return on equity of 25.4%. For the full year of 2022, we generated $11.32 of adjusted earnings per share and achieved a return on equity of 28.4%. Our 2022 adjusted earnings per share were up more than 20% from 2021, which had been a record year for Triton.

我現在將從我們演示文稿的幻燈片 3 開始。 Triton 在第四季度的強勁業績為公司的出色表現畫上了句號。第四季度，我們產生了 2.76 美元的調整後每股淨收入，實現了 25.4% 的年化股本回報率。 2022 年全年，我們產生了 11.32 美元的調整後每股收益，實現了 28.4% 的股本回報率。我們 2022 年的調整後每股收益比 2021 年增長了 20% 以上，而 2021 年是 Triton 創紀錄的一年。

Our market environment slowed in 2022, following nearly 2 years of exceptional container demand. Trade volumes have retreated from the 2020, '21 surge. Consumers are shifting spending back from goods to services and the various headwinds facing the global economy are hitting trade as well. In addition, the logistical bottlenecks that impacted pandemic era supply chains have eased, speeding container term times and freeing container capacity. As a result, most of our customers are off-hiring containers and our utilization is gradually decreasing from last year's record level. We expect our performance will remain strong despite the challenging environment. We have significant operational and financial advantages in our market. The large number of containers we purchased over the last few years are locked away a long duration, high IRR leases.

在經歷了近 2 年的異常集裝箱需求之後，我們的市場環境在 2022 年有所放緩。貿易量已從 2020 年 21 年的激增中回落。消費者正在將支出從商品轉向服務，全球經濟面臨的各種不利因素也在打擊貿易。此外，影響大流行時代供應鏈的物流瓶頸已經緩解，加快了集裝箱期限並釋放了集裝箱容量。因此，我們的大多數客戶都停止租用集裝箱，我們的利用率從去年的創紀錄水平開始逐漸下降。儘管環境充滿挑戰，但我們預計我們的業績將保持強勁。我們在市場上擁有顯著的運營和財務優勢。我們在過去幾年購買的大量集裝箱都鎖定了長期、高內部收益率的租約。

We have strengthened our overall lease portfolio. The vast majority of our containers are on multiyear, long-term leases. We have significantly increased the average remaining duration of our leases and almost 60% of our containers are on lifecycle leases, which are structured to keep containers on hire until the end of their leasing lives. We have also locked in low-cost financing with long-term fixed rate debt.

我們加強了整體租賃組合。我們的絕大多數集裝箱都是多年長期租約。我們顯著增加了平均剩餘租期，我們近 60% 的集裝箱處於生命週期租賃狀態，其結構是為了讓集裝箱一直租用到租賃期結束。我們還通過長期固定利率債務鎖定了低成本融資。

We continue to use our strong cash flow to drive shareholder value. We shifted our investment focus from fleet growth in 2021 to share repurchases in 2022. We purchased over 9.1 million shares in 2022, representing nearly 14% of our outstanding shares at the beginning of the year, while also decreasing our leverage. Market conditions are currently challenging, but we expect our financial performance will remain strong. We expect our adjusted earnings per share will decrease from the fourth to the first quarter as negative seasonality adds pressure to the generally soft market conditions. In addition, we do not expect the recurring items -- excuse me, the nonrecurring items, which benefited the fourth quarter will reoccur. But we expect our utilization will remain high and expect our share repurchases will remain highly accretive.

我們繼續利用強勁的現金流來推動股東價值。我們將投資重點從 2021 年的船隊增長轉移到 2022 年的股票回購。我們在 2022 年購買了超過 910 萬股股票，佔年初已發行股票的近 14%，同時也降低了我們的槓桿率。目前市場狀況充滿挑戰，但我們預計我們的財務業績將保持強勁。我們預計我們調整後的每股收益將從第四季度下降到第一季度，因為不利的季節性因素給普遍疲軟的市場環境增加了壓力。此外，我們不希望經常性項目——對不起，受益於第四季度的非經常性項目將再次出現。但我們預計我們的利用率將保持高位，並預計我們的股票回購將保持高度增長。

Overall, we expect our cash flow, profitability and return on equity will remain strong throughout 2023 and into the longer term.

總體而言，我們預計我們的現金流、盈利能力和股本回報率將在整個 2023 年和更長期保持強勁。

I'll now hand the call over to John O'Callaghan, our Global Head of Marketing and Operations.

我現在將電話轉交給我們的全球營銷和運營主管 John O'Callaghan。

Thank you, Brian. Page 4 shows Triton's operating metrics. In the lower left chart, you can see the monthly trend of our pickup and drop-off activity. Pickup volumes decelerated in the first half of 2022, though drop-offs remained low as shipping lines contended with the lingering effects of port congestion and other supply chain bottlenecks. We started to see drop-offs accelerate in the third quarter as our customers reacted to a muted peak season and an easing of logistical bottlenecks. This continued through the fourth quarter as the line started to rebalance their fleets in response to declining trade volumes.

謝謝你，布萊恩。第 4 頁顯示了 Triton 的運營指標。在左下方的圖表中，您可以看到我們每月的接送活動趨勢。 2022 年上半年，提貨量有所放緩，但由於航運公司正在應對港口擁堵和其他供應鏈瓶頸的揮之不去的影響，提貨量仍然很低。隨著我們的客戶對淡旺季和物流瓶頸的緩解做出反應，我們開始看到第三季度下降速度加快。這種情況一直持續到第四季度，因為該航線開始重新平衡其船隊以應對貿易量下降。

The result of this increase in drop-off volumes is a gradual reduction in our utilization rate as shown in the upper left chart. Nevertheless, utilization remains high at 97.6%, reflecting the durable protection provided by our long-term and finance leases, which now make up over 88% of our lease portfolio as weighted by net book value. A key part of our enhanced lease protection has been the increase in the percentage of our containers on life cycle lease as shown on the upper right. In the chart, you can see that nearly 60% of our containers are on life cycle leases, which are structured to keep containers on hire through their full remaining leasing line and so have very little utilization risk.

下降量增加的結果是我們的利用率逐漸降低，如左上圖所示。儘管如此，利用率仍保持在 97.6% 的高位，反映了我們的長期和融資租賃提供的持久保護，按賬面淨值加權，這些租賃目前占我們租賃組合的 88% 以上。如右上角所示，我們加強租賃保護的一個關鍵部分是我們的集裝箱在生命週期租賃中所佔的百分比有所增加。在圖表中，您可以看到我們近 60% 的集裝箱處於生命週期租賃狀態，這種租賃的結構是通過其剩餘的全部租賃線來租用集裝箱，因此利用風險非常小。

The bottom chart on the lower right shows the volume of our new dry container transaction activity. The volume of new container leases has significantly decreased as a result of the market environment changes and our clients' increased emphasis on operational effectiveness.

右下方的底部圖表顯示了我們新乾貨集裝箱交易活動的數量。由於市場環境的變化和客戶對運營效率的日益重視，新集裝箱租賃量大幅下降。

Page 5 illustrates the shipping market is normalizing following 2 years of exceptional conditions. In the upper left chart, you can see the Spot freight rates for our customers have decreased steeply over the last few quarters in response to cooling trade activity and have returned to prepandemic levels on most trade lanes. In the upper right, you can see that new container prices have also normalized as container capacity is no longer in shortage and demand for new containers has eased. The chart on the lower right looks at an index of used container sale prices. Used prices have come down in concert with new container prices, although we continue to generate solid disposal gains in the fourth quarter. Finally, on the lower left, you can see that port congestion has mostly dissipated as reduced trade volumes and improved productivity have allowed ports to work through their vessel backlog.

第 5 頁說明航運市場在經歷了 2 年的特殊情況後正在恢復正常。在左上角的圖表中，您可以看到我們客戶的現貨運費在過去幾個季度中急劇下降，以響應貿易活動的降溫，並在大多數貿易航線上恢復到大流行前的水平。在右上角，您可以看到新箱價格也已經正常化，因為集裝箱運力不再短缺並且對新箱的需求有所緩解。右下方的圖表顯示了二手集裝箱銷售價格指數。儘管我們在第四季度繼續產生可觀的處置收益，但二手價格與新集裝箱價格一致下降。最後，在左下角，您可以看到由於貿易量減少和生產率提高使港口能夠處理積壓的船舶，港口擁堵已基本消失。

Page 6 looks at the supply of new and used containers as well as new container production volumes, which have decreased in response to slower demand. The chart at the upper left shows the inventory of new containers awaiting deployment. After reaching historically low levels in 2021, factory inventory is now back around the long-term average as a percent of the total dry container fleet. You can see in the lower left, the Triton's depot inventory of used containers has grown, reflecting the increased pace of off-hires. Relative to our fleet size, our depot inventory remains very low, and we expect it to remain well under control due to the durable enhancements we've made to our lease portfolio. Importantly, the vast majority of our depot stocks are located in key demand locations in Asia, and we expect the containers to go on hire quickly as the market enters the next up cycle.

第 6 頁著眼於新舊集裝箱的供應以及新集裝箱的產量，這些產量因需求放緩而有所下降。左上角的圖表顯示了等待部署的新容器的庫存。在 2021 年達到歷史低位後，工廠庫存現在回到了長期平均水平附近，佔乾貨集裝箱船隊總數的百分比。您可以在左下方看到，Triton 的二手集裝箱倉庫庫存有所增加，反映出停租速度加快。相對於我們的車隊規模，我們的倉庫庫存仍然很低，並且由於我們對租賃組合進行了持久的改進，我們預計它會保持在良好的控制之下。重要的是，我們的絕大多數倉庫庫存位於亞洲的主要需求地區，我們預計隨著市場進入下一個上升週期，集裝箱將迅速出租。

2022 production orders, as shown by the graph on the right, dropped by more than 50% year-over-year in response to our customers shift from aggressively adding containers in 2021 back to fleet efficiency. As you can see in the lower right chart, production volumes dropped way below the replacement range as demand decreased through the fourth quarter of 2022. The market has a natural balance of new container production, and we expect very limited production of new containers in the first half of 2023.

如右圖所示，2022 年的生產訂單同比下降了 50% 以上，以響應我們的客戶從 2021 年積極增加集裝箱轉向提高船隊效率。正如您在右下角的圖表中看到的那樣，隨著需求在 2022 年第四季度的下降，產量下降到遠低於替代範圍。市場在新集裝箱生產方面處於自然平衡狀態，我們預計 2022 年新集裝箱的產量非常有限2023年上半年。

We have talked in the past about the short order cycle for containers, which is just a few months and the natural order of how container production as well as the overall container fleet adjusts quickly to changes in the global container supply and demand balance.

我們過去談到集裝箱的短訂單週期，只有幾個月，以及集裝箱生產以及整個集裝箱船隊如何快速調整以適應全球集裝箱供需平衡變化的自然秩序。

I'll now hand you over to Michael Pearl, our CFO.

我現在將你交給我們的首席財務官 Michael Pearl。

Thank you, John. On Slide 7, we have presented our consolidated financial results. Adjusted net income for the fourth quarter was $160.7 million or $2.76 per share, a decrease of 4.2% from the third quarter. For the full year of 2022, adjusted net income was $702.8 million or $11.32 per share, an increase of 23.6% from 2021. This outstanding performance represents another record year of earnings that is built upon our impressive results from last year.

謝謝你，約翰。在幻燈片 7 中，我們展示了我們的綜合財務業績。第四季度調整後淨收入為 1.607 億美元或每股 2.76 美元，比第三季度下降 4.2%。 2022 年全年，調整後淨收入為 7.028 億美元或每股 11.32 美元，比 2021 年增長 23.6%。這一出色的業績代表著我們在去年令人矚目的業績基礎上再創新高的收益年度。

In addition, we achieved an annualized return on equity of 25.4% in the fourth quarter and a return on equity of 28.4% for the full year.

此外，我們在第四季度實現了 25.4% 的年化股本回報率，全年實現了 28.4% 的股本回報率。

On Slide 8, I will discuss the key drivers of our performance, focusing on the sequential changes from the third to the fourth quarter. Limited CapEx led to a 1.7% decrease in our average revenue earning assets in the fourth quarter. Average utilization for the quarter was down 70 basis points due to more challenging market conditions, but still remains very high and is supported by our well-structured, long-duration leases, driven in part by an increase in storage costs we saw operating expense increased by $7.7 million in the quarter. This increase was partially offset by an increase in revenue for repairs and handling costs that are rebilled to our customers.

在幻燈片 8 上，我將討論我們業績的主要驅動因素，重點關注從第三季度到第四季度的連續變化。有限的資本支出導致我們第四季度的平均創收資產下降了 1.7%。由於更具挑戰性的市場條件，本季度的平均利用率下降了 70 個基點，但仍然非常高，這得益於我們結構良好的長期租賃，部分原因是存儲成本增加，我們看到運營費用增加本季度減少 770 萬美元。這一增長部分被返還給客戶的維修和處理成本收入的增加所抵消。

Interest expense increased slightly in the quarter as higher rates somewhat offset the decrease in our average debt balance. However, our effective interest rate remained low as we continue to benefit from the high portion of our debt that is fixed at attractive levels. At year-end, 88% of our debt was either fixed or swapped to fixed. Gain on sale and trading margin decreased 11% in the fourth quarter but still remains at a high level, and we continue to see pricing well above our residual values.

由於較高的利率在一定程度上抵消了我們平均債務餘額的減少，本季度的利息支出略有增加。然而，我們的實際利率仍然很低，因為我們繼續受益於固定在有吸引力水平的高比例債務。年底時，我們 88% 的債務是固定債務或轉換為固定債務。第四季度銷售收益和交易利潤率下降了 11%，但仍處於高位，我們繼續看到定價遠高於我們的剩餘價值。

The fourth quarter included several unusual items that added $0.13 per share to our earnings. We recorded a $3 million benefit from the reversal of a credit charge taken earlier this year and the recovery from a default that occurred several years ago. We also had $4.8 million of gains from lease buyout transactions that benefited gain on sale. We do not expect these items to reoccur in the first quarter.

第四季度包括幾個不尋常的項目，使我們的每股收益增加了 0.13 美元。我們記錄了 300 萬美元的收益，這些收益來自今年早些時候發生的信貸費用的逆轉以及幾年前發生的違約的恢復。我們還從受益於銷售收益的租賃買斷交易中獲得了 480 萬美元的收益。我們預計這些項目不會在第一季度再次出現。

As Brian mentioned earlier, we continue to use our strong cash flow to actively buy back shares, resulting in a continued decrease in our share count.

正如布賴恩之前提到的，我們繼續利用強勁的現金流積極回購股票，導致我們的股票數量持續減少。

Slide 9 demonstrates the meaningful increase in our leasing margin over the last several years and the durable enhancements we have made to help support this high level of profitability into the future. The chart on the left of the page shows this increase in leasing margin, which has been driven by several factors, including our elevated level of investment in high-returning leases, attractive transactions for existing depot units, exceptional levels of utilization and the impact from our significant refinancing activity. We have created a new level of durable profitability, and the chart on the right of the page show what we have done to help lock-in this high level of leasing margin. The chart in the upper right shows the evolution of our leasing portfolio.

幻燈片 9 展示了過去幾年我們租賃利潤率的顯著增長，以及我們為支持未來高水平盈利能力所做的持久改進。頁面左側的圖表顯示了租賃利潤率的增長，這是由多種因素推動的，包括我們對高回報租賃的投資水平提高、現有倉庫單位的有吸引力的交易、特殊的利用率水平以及來自我們的重大再融資活動。我們創造了一個新水平的持久盈利能力，頁面右側的圖表顯示了我們為幫助鎖定這一高水平的租賃利潤率所做的工作。右上角的圖表顯示了我們租賃組合的演變。

The combination of new long-duration leases, along with attractive terms on renewals and depot pickups have enabled us to extend our average lease duration to almost 80 months. And as of the end of the year, 88% of our units by book value were either on long-term or finance leases. The chart in the lower right illustrates the improvements we have made to our debt structure. We have locked in long duration financing at low levels that will help keep the effective interest rate on our current fleet from meaningfully increasing over the next several years.

新的長期租約，加上有吸引力的續約和取貨條款，使我們能夠將平均租期延長至近 80 個月。截至年底，按賬面價值計算，我們 88% 的單位是長期租賃或融資租賃。右下角的圖表說明了我們對債務結構所做的改進。我們已經鎖定了低水平的長期融資，這將有助於防止我們當前機隊的實際利率在未來幾年顯著增加。

I will now turn the call over to Brian.

我現在將把電話轉給布賴恩。

Thanks, Michael. Slide 10 summarizes the cash flow power of our business. In 2022, we generated slightly over $1.6 billion of cash flow. We need to allocate a little more than half of this cash flow for replacement capital spending in order to maintain our fleet size as containers age out of service. This leaves us with a little over $700 million of steady-state cash flow. We use roughly $160 million per year for our regular dividend. As a result, we have about $545 million of steady-state cash flow after our substantial regular dividend.

謝謝，邁克爾。幻燈片 10 總結了我們業務的現金流能力。 2022 年，我們產生了略高於 16 億美元的現金流。我們需要分配超過一半的現金流用於更換資本支出，以便在集裝箱老化停運時維持我們的船隊規模。這給我們留下了略高於 7 億美元的穩態現金流。我們每年使用大約 1.6 億美元的定期股息。因此，在我們支付大量定期股息後，我們有大約 5.45 億美元的穩態現金流。

The next set of numbers shows a few things that we can do with this $545 million and illustrates why we're able to create value across a wide range of market environments. If we focus on capital investment, like we did in 2021, we can self-fund the equity needed for nearly 20% asset growth while keeping our leverage ratio constant. Alternatively, if we focus on share repurchases like we are now, we can repurchase about 13% of our shares at their current trading range. If we want to instead to focus on dividends, we could pay well over $9 per share on top of our regular dividend, bringing the total annual dividend into the range of $12 per share.

下一組數字顯示了我們可以用這 5.45 億美元做的一些事情，並說明了為什麼我們能夠在廣泛的市場環境中創造價值。如果我們專注於資本投資，就像我們在 2021 年所做的那樣，我們可以在保持槓桿率不變的同時，自籌資金實現近 20% 的資產增長。或者，如果我們像現在這樣專注於股票回購，我們可以在當前交易區間內回購約 13% 的股票。如果我們想轉而關注股息，我們可以在定期股息的基礎上支付每股 9 美元以上，從而使年度股息總額達到每股 12 美元。

We have also included a table at the bottom of the slide that shows how we're able to use our strong cash flow to drive per share fleet growth, almost regardless of market conditions, again, while holding our leverage ratio steady. Revenue earning assets per share have increased from $134 per share at the end of 2020 to $199 per share at the end of 2022, an increase of almost 50% across two very different market environments. This strong growth in our assets per share is another key reason we expect a higher level of financial performance will be durable.

我們還在幻燈片底部添加了一張表格，顯示我們如何能夠利用強勁的現金流來推動每股機隊增長，幾乎不管市場狀況如何，同時保持我們的槓桿率穩定。每股創收資產從 2020 年底的每股 134 美元增加到 2022 年底的每股 199 美元，在兩個截然不同的市場環境中增長了近 50%。我們每股資產的強勁增長是我們預計更高水平的財務業績將持久的另一個關鍵原因。

Slide 11 looks at how Triton has created long-term value. Triton is the scale, cost and capability leader in a fundamentally attractive market. And we have a long history of delivering solid growth, strong profitability and above-market shareholder returns. The chart on the upper left looks at the long-term growth of our container fleet. We have grown the net book value of our fleet 8% annually over the last 17 years. The chart on the upper right looks at our long-term cash flow before capital spending. You can see how our cash flow has increased as we have grown our fleet. And you can see the stability of our cash flow even in very challenging years for the global economy.

幻燈片 11 介紹了 Triton 如何創造長期價值。 Triton 是一個具有根本吸引力的市場中規模、成本和能力的領導者。我們在實現穩健增長、強勁盈利能力和高於市場的股東回報方面擁有悠久的歷史。左上角的圖表顯示了我們集裝箱船隊的長期增長。在過去的 17 年裡，我們機隊的賬面淨值每年增長 8%。右上角的圖表顯示了我們在資本支出之前的長期現金流。您可以看到我們的現金流如何隨著我們的車隊規模的擴大而增加。即使在全球經濟充滿挑戰的年份，您也可以看到我們現金流的穩定性。

The chart on the lower left shows how we've used our cash flow to both reinvest in our business and regularly return cash to shareholders. At the time of TAL's IPO in 2005, TAL had an adjusted net book value of around $12 per share. Our adjusted net book value has increased steadily recently at an accelerated pace and is now almost $50 per share. We have also paid over $30 per share in dividends. And as you can see in the lower right, we have generated a 15% annual total shareholder return since our 2005 IPO, significantly outperforming the S&P 500.

左下角的圖表顯示了我們如何利用現金流對我們的業務進行再投資並定期向股東返還現金。在 2005 年 TAL 首次公開募股時，TAL 的調整後賬面淨值約為每股 12 美元。我們調整後的賬面淨值最近以更快的速度穩步增長，現在接近每股 50 美元。我們還支付了每股 30 多美元的股息。正如您在右下角看到的那樣，自 2005 年首次公開募股以來，我們的年度股東總回報率為 15%，遠遠超過標準普爾 500 指數。

I'll talk about our outlook on Slide 12. As you can see in the chart, we expect our adjusted earnings per share will decrease from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the first quarter of 2023. This reflects the combination of several factors. The first quarter is typically the slowest season for dry containers, which adds pressure to the generally slow market conditions. In addition, the first quarter has two fewer days, and we charge our customers on a daily usage basis. We also do not expect the unusual items which added $0.13 to the fourth quarter will be repeated. We expect the mix of factors will be different after the first quarter, and expect the pressure on our key operating metrics and profitability will ease. Seasonality typically improves as we move towards the summer, and we expect customer off-hires will slow due to this positive seasonality and as their excess container inventory shrink.

我將談談我們對幻燈片 12 的展望。正如您在圖表中看到的，我們預計我們調整後的每股收益將從 2022 年第四季度到 2023 年第一季度下降。這反映了多種因素的結合。第一季度通常是乾貨集裝箱最淡季，這給普遍低迷的市場環境增加了壓力。此外，第一季度少了兩天，我們按天向客戶收費。我們也不認為在第四季度增加 0.13 美元的異常項目會再次出現。我們預計第一季度後因素的組合將有所不同，並預計我們的關鍵運營指標和盈利能力的壓力將會緩解。隨著夏季的臨近，季節性通常會有所改善，我們預計，由於這種積極的季節性因素以及過剩的集裝箱庫存減少，客戶停租的速度將會放緩。

We expect sales prices will stabilize after they return from elevated to normal ratios compared to new container prices. And we expect we'll continue to benefit from ongoing share repurchases. The chart also highlights the durable enhancements we've made to our business. We expect our 2023 earnings per share to be in the range of 2x our prepandemic level despite the challenging market environment.

我們預計，與新集裝箱價格相比，銷售價格從高位恢復到正常水平後將趨於穩定。我們預計我們將繼續受益於持續的股票回購。該圖表還突出顯示了我們對業務所做的持久改進。儘管市場環境充滿挑戰，但我們預計 2023 年的每股收益將達到大流行前水平的 2 倍。

I'll finish the presentation with Slide 13. Triton has an exceptional franchise, and we delivered outstanding performance in 2022. Our market is currently challenging, but we are confident about our performance and optimistic about our opportunities. We have significant market advantages and have made durable enhancements to our business. We expect our profitability and return on equity will remain high. We are confident we will continue to build shareholder value quickly, even while the market remains slow. And Triton will be ready to support our customers and well positioned to capitalize on renewed fleet investment opportunities when market conditions inevitably inflect positively.

我將以幻燈片 13 結束演示。Triton 擁有卓越的特許經營權，我們在 2022 年取得了出色的業績。我們的市場目前充滿挑戰，但我們對我們的業績充滿信心，對我們的機會持樂觀態度。我們擁有顯著的市場優勢，並且對我們的業務進行了持久的改進。我們預計我們的盈利能力和股本回報率將保持高位。我們有信心，即使市場仍然低迷，我們也將繼續快速建立股東價值。 Triton 將準備好為我們的客戶提供支持，並在市場條件不可避免地發生積極變化時充分利用新的機隊投資機會。

We'll now open up the call for questions.

我們現在將打開問題電話。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from Larry Solow with CJS Securities.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自 CJS 證券公司的 Larry Solow。

Great. I guess my first question, Brian, it's sort of just like a high-level question. You discussed things seem to be normalizing, a lot less congestion. Curious just on the fleet size, the shipping container fleets. Do you feel like -- are they inflated versus historical? I'm just trying to get if you have any color or feel for that. Do they plan on -- do you feel like it will remain higher than where we were just because of all this stuff that happened with the ports and maybe shippers don't want risk that happening again? Just kind of getting a feel or your feel if there is one of directionally where the size of these fleets are, what they are today and where they might be in a couple of years.

偉大的。我想我的第一個問題，布賴恩，這有點像一個高級問題。你討論的事情似乎正在正常化，擁堵少了很多。好奇的只是船隊的規模，集裝箱船隊。你覺得 - 它們是否與歷史相比被誇大了？我只是想知道你是否有任何顏色或感覺。他們是否計劃 - 你是否覺得它會保持高於我們的水平只是因為港口發生的所有這些事情，也許托運人不希望再次發生這種情況的風險？如果有方向性的這些機隊的規模，它們今天的情況以及幾年後的情況，只是一種感覺或你的感覺。

Yes, sure. Thanks for your question, Larry. We look at what happened over the last couple of years, we saw very large new container production volumes in 2021. And it was large to accommodate both the surge in trade volumes as well as just a variety of pandemic-era bottlenecks like waiting times at the ports and a shortage of truckers. And when we look at the level of production in 2021, say, compared to trade growth, we estimate that there were something in the range of probably 5% to 10% too many containers in the fleets of our customers. When market conditions slowed during the middle of 2022 and as the bottlenecks eased, and so that still is our estimate that something in the range of -- the fleet has to normalize between 5% and 10% to bring container supply and demand back into balance.

是的，當然。謝謝你的問題，拉里。我們看看過去幾年發生的事情，我們看到 2021 年的新集裝箱產量非常大。它既可以容納貿易量的激增，也可以應對大流行時期的各種瓶頸，比如等待時間港口和卡車司機短缺。當我們查看 2021 年的生產水平時，比如說，與貿易增長相比，我們估計客戶船隊中的集裝箱數量可能多出 5% 到 10%。當市場狀況在 2022 年年中放緩並且瓶頸緩解時，我們仍然估計船隊必須正常化 5% 到 10% 以使集裝箱供需恢復平衡.

Fortunately, one of the great strengths of our business is that there's a short order cycle for containers, typically only a few months, and we've already seen new container production volumes fall significantly to the point now where the container fleet is shrinking month over month. And even though the economy outlook is tough, I think the outlook for trade growth is still somewhat positive, and that eats into that excess as well. And I think as you may be referred to in your question, we do expect customers to hang on to a little bit more container fleet, say, resiliency than they had before the pandemic when their focus was almost exclusively on efficiency.

幸運的是，我們業務的一大優勢是集裝箱的訂單週期很短，通常只有幾個月，而且我們已經看到新的集裝箱產量大幅下降，現在集裝箱船隊正在縮減一個月月。儘管經濟前景艱難，但我認為貿易增長的前景仍然有些樂觀，這也削弱了這種過剩。而且我認為，正如您在問題中可能提到的那樣，我們確實希望客戶比大流行之前更多地保留集裝箱船隊，比如說，比大流行之前他們的重點幾乎完全放在效率上的彈性。

And so I think it really is a question of just how long it takes for the reduction in the container fleet through low production and ongoing sales and then that coupled with hopefully some trade growth as inventories normalize and retailers and wholesalers start stocking the shelves again and then just, I think, some extra containers in the fleet due to the focus of our customers on resiliency and perhaps some of the impacts of slow steaming due to the tighter IMO rules on emissions and also just the cost savings that customers get from that. So I think those are wider things have to happen, and it'll happen, we'll see when, but it's already underway.

因此，我認為這確實是一個問題，即通過低產量和持續銷售減少集裝箱船隊需要多長時間，然後隨著庫存正常化以及零售商和批發商再次開始進貨貨架以及希望貿易增長而出現一些增長然後，我認為，由於我們的客戶對彈性的關注，以及由於更嚴格的 IMO 排放規則以及客戶從中獲得的成本節約，慢速航行的一些影響，我認為船隊中有一些額外的集裝箱。所以我認為這些是必鬚髮生的更廣泛的事情，它會發生，我們會看到什麼時候，但它已經在進行中。

Got you. And then in terms of just container purchases or for you guys, it looks like you basically were close to your sort of maintenance level in '22. For your example, you repurchased almost 13% , 14% of your shares, so I kind of match your example there. But just curious, you're spending, obviously, a trajectory in the back half of the year, you spent less than $200 million, I think, $50 million in Q4. And it sounds like maybe this year starts off slow or I realize some of this is just replacement. So how should we kind of think about? Any gauge on what spending will be this year, just potentially below that ..

明白了然後就集裝箱購買或你們而言，看起來你們基本上已經接近 22 年的那種維護水平。對於你的例子，你回購了將近 13%、14% 的股份，所以我有點符合你的例子。但只是好奇，你顯然在今年下半年花費了一條軌跡，你在第四季度花費了不到 2 億美元，我認為是 5000 萬美元。聽起來今年可能開始緩慢，或者我意識到其中一些只是替代品。那麼我們應該如何思考呢？任何關於今年支出的衡量標準，可能會低於該水平..

So, yes, our level of spending was around the replacement level in the first part of 2022. It fell below the replacement level towards the back half as the market really slowed down and our fleet size decreased a little bit during 2022, especially in the second half. Right now, we're investing at below our replacement level just because there's not much need for our customers for additional containers. That said, we do try to anticipate the change in market dynamics, and we try to invest ahead of that inflection. And so we do expect, at some point here, we're going to turn the taps back on for repurchases, both anticipating the market inflection and then obviously, to serve it when it occurs. But in the meantime, we do remain quite focused on share repurchases. We think that's a great use of our capital and then build shareholder value quickly for our shareholders. And so again, for the moment, we're focusing on share repurchases, but that will change.

所以，是的，我們的支出水平在 2022 年上半年處於更換水平附近。隨著市場真正放緩，我們的機隊規模在 2022 年略有下降，特別是在下半場。現在，我們的投資低於我們的更換水平，因為我們的客戶對額外容器的需求不大。也就是說，我們確實試圖預測市場動態的變化，並且我們試圖在這種變化之前進行投資。因此，我們確實預計，在這裡的某個時候，我們將重新打開水龍頭進行回購，既要預測市場的變化，又要在它發生時為它提供服務。但與此同時，我們確實仍然非常關注股票回購。我們認為這是對我們資本的一種很好的利用，然後可以迅速為我們的股東創造股東價值。因此，目前我們再次關注股票回購，但這會改變。

Great. If I could just squeak one more in. For Michael, first of all, congratulations and welcome. Just on the direct operating expenses line item, I think you kind of called this out a little bit. Directionally, it was -- I see why it went up. It went up a little bit more than I thought, but I guess perhaps most of that was due to this sort of repair, handling costs where you guys get reimbursed for it. Was that higher than normal this quarter and that kind of drove that direct expense number a little bit higher sequentially?

偉大的。如果我能再進來一點就好了。對於邁克爾，首先表示祝賀和歡迎。就直接運營費用項目而言，我認為你有點過分了。從方向上講，它是——我明白為什麼它會上升。它比我想像的要多一點，但我想這可能大部分是由於這種維修，你們得到報銷的處理費用。這是否高於本季度的正常水平，這是否導致直接費用數字環比略高？

Yes. There's sort of two parts in there. One is storage. So as we showed utilization is down a little bit. So we do experience higher storage expense. And then with pickups and drop-offs from our customers, that does generate ancillary fees. So some of that shows up in OpEx, but then there's also some offsets in the revenue line as well for that.

是的。裡面有兩部分。一是存儲。因此，正如我們所顯示的那樣，利用率有所下降。所以我們確實經歷了更高的存儲費用。然後通過我們客戶的接送服務，這確實會產生輔助費用。所以其中一些出現在運營支出中，但收入線也有一些抵消。

Our next question will come from Michael Brown with KBW.

我們的下一個問題將來自 KBW 的 Michael Brown。

Great. So I was looking at your EPS range for 2023, and I just wanted to see if you could put a little bit more meat on the bone to help us understand what's the difference between how you're thinking about the lower bound and the upper bound? And what would cause you to maybe deliver results closer to the upper bound versus the lower bound, which we think about there?

偉大的。所以我在看你們 2023 年的 EPS 範圍，我只是想看看你們是否可以在骨頭上多放一點肉來幫助我們理解你們對下限和上限的看法有什麼區別？什麼會導致您可能提供更接近上限而不是下限的結果，我們在那裡考慮？

Yes. So I think mainly it's just what happens to the market. And so I think if we were to be at the lower bound of our expectations, that just means that the market has evolved a little bit slower than we expected that, that supply and demand normalization took more time than we had hoped and perhaps that new container prices fell to ranges below where we had expected, which can push used container prices down. So in general, it just reflects probably a little more utilization pressure than we expect to see that perhaps we don't see any kind of positive seasonality as you move from the first to the second quarter for our utilization or sale results. I think that kind of tracks the lower bound.

是的。所以我認為主要是市場發生了什麼。所以我認為，如果我們處於預期的下限，那隻是意味著市場的發展比我們預期的要慢一點，供需正常化花費的時間比我們希望的要長，也許新的集裝箱價格跌至低於我們預期的範圍，這可能會推低二手集裝箱價格。因此，總的來說，它反映的利用率壓力可能比我們預期的要大一些，當您從第一季度轉移到第二季度以獲取我們的利用率或銷售結果時，我們可能看不到任何積極的季節性。我認為這種跟踪下限。

The lower bound is pretty well protected by the leasing margin and the strength of the lease portfolio. The quickest thing that adjust downwards is the gain on sale and the gain on sale was quite high in 2020, even through the fourth quarter. Sale prices held up very well, and we continue to expect that to normalize down. But once -- as I pointed out in my prepared remarks, once we see the ratio of used prices and new prices get back into something of a normal range, we do expect that reduction to slow down. And I guess perhaps the lower bound might also be defined if that normalization doesn't happen and sale prices go to be lower ratios than they typically are, which we don't expect.

租賃利潤率和租賃組合的實力很好地保護了下限。下調最快的是銷售收益，銷售收益在 2020 年相當高，甚至在第四季度也是如此。銷售價格保持得很好，我們繼續期望價格正常化。但是一旦 - 正如我在準備好的發言中指出的那樣，一旦我們看到二手價格和新價格的比率回到正常範圍內，我們確實預計這種下降會放緩。而且我想如果正常化沒有發生並且銷售價格的比率低於通常的比率，那麼下限也可能被定義，這是我們不期望的。

I'd say the upper end of the bound is just the opposite of those things that we see customers, their fleet stabilizing as we head towards the peak season. Perhaps we see an inventory restocking cycle in the U.S. that drives some trade volume. And we just see utilization stabilize better than we'd expected and maybe even start ticking upward. Typically, when we do see container supply demand back into balance, we can get our used equipment back on hire quickly. And so really, it's just -- again, we've got a pretty good floor performance because of our lease portfolio. And again, I like to point out, as I did in the prepared remarks that -- even that lower bound is something in the range of 2x our prepandemic performance. And so we do expect to hang on to a lot of the benefits of our recent investments and lease portfolio improvements and then up from there really just as the market improves.

我想說的是，上限與我們看到的客戶正好相反，他們的車隊在我們走向旺季時穩定下來。也許我們看到美國的庫存補貨週期推動了一些貿易量。我們只是看到利用率比我們預期的要穩定，甚至可能開始上升。通常，當我們確實看到集裝箱供應需求恢復平衡時，我們可以迅速重新租用我們的二手設備。所以真的，它只是 - 再一次，由於我們的租賃組合，我們的地板性能非常好。再次，我想指出，正如我在準備好的發言中所做的那樣——即使是下限也是我們大流行前表現的兩倍。因此，我們確實希望能從我們最近的投資和租賃組合改進中獲得很多好處，然後隨著市場的改善而從那裡真正上升。

Okay. Great. So yes, you've got clearly some very different scenarios to consider. Thanks for giving us all that guidance and color. Brian, what have been some of your early observations after China's reopening here? What are customers saying? And how has -- what have you guys noticed in terms of how that has impacted containerized trade, if at all yet?

好的。偉大的。所以是的，您顯然需要考慮一些非常不同的場景。感謝您為我們提供所有指導和色彩。布賴恩，中國在這裡重新開放後，您早期的一些觀察是什麼？客戶在說什麼？以及如何 - 你們注意到這如何影響集裝箱貿易，如果有的話？

Yes. So I think the main thing I'd like to point out that for us, as a leasing company, what we really focus on is the head haul trade. That really is what drives the customers' need for more equipment or perhaps if they have too much equipment. And so really, the -- what drives demand for our fleet is consumption in the U.S. and consumption in Europe as opposed to economic activity in China or consumption there. I mean, obviously, there's a connection that there were certainly times in 2020 and '21 and maybe a little bit early in '22 when retailers and wholesalers in the U.S. and Europe couldn't get everything they wanted. And so what was happening in China impacted trade volumes. The sense I have now is that with most -- certainly, I think retailers and so on being overstocked in the U.S. and in Europe that we haven't seen a bump in trade volumes as China has reopened on the head haul trades, which are driven -- again, driven by consumption here.

是的。所以我想我想指出的主要事情是，對於我們來說，作為一家租賃公司，我們真正關注的是頭程貿易。這確實是促使客戶需要更多設備的原因，或者可能是他們擁有太多設備。因此，實際上，推動我們車隊需求的是美國的消費和歐洲的消費，而不是中國的經濟活動或那裡的消費。我的意思是，很明顯，在 2020 年和 21 年，也許在 22 年早些時候，美國和歐洲的零售商和批發商無法獲得他們想要的一切，這是有聯繫的。因此，中國發生的事情影響了貿易量。我現在的感覺是，對於大多數——當然，我認為零售商等在美國和歐洲庫存過剩，我們沒有看到貿易量的增長，因為中國已經重新開放了頭程貿易，這是驅動 - 再次受到這裡消費的驅動。

Our next question will come from Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Ken Hoexter。

This is Adam on for Ken Hoexter. So just first off, could you -- maybe, Brian, just run through what percentage of boxes will expire this year, in '24, '25, just to get a sense of the exposure to some of those rolling off?

這是肯·霍克斯特的亞當。所以首先，你能不能——也許，布賴恩，看看今年 24 年、25 年有多少箱子將過期，只是為了了解其中一些即將到期的箱子的風險？

Yes, sure. So I think both Michael and John O'Callaghan referred to the fact that something like 88% of our container fleet, as weighted by net book value, is locked in on longer-term leases. And so just naturally, there can't be too much that's expiring. What we tend to focus on when we think of expirations and sort of market risk and earnings risk are the portion of the fleet that's expiring that would have to be remarketed. We find even when market conditions are tough, we usually generate gains on selling our used containers.

是的，當然。因此，我認為 Michael 和 John O'Callaghan 都提到了這樣一個事實，即按賬面淨值加權，我們大約 88% 的集裝箱船隊都鎖定了長期租約。所以很自然地，不會有太多的東西會過期。當我們想到到期以及某種市場風險和收益風險時，我們傾向於關注的是即將到期的船隊中必須重新銷售的部分。我們發現，即使市場形勢嚴峻，我們通常也會通過出售二手集裝箱獲得收益。

And so we typically don't look at that as providing too much exposure to challenges in any given year. And so we typically include, and it's in this presentation, a chart showing what percentage of our fleet is expiring -- well, has already expired and that is expiring over the next few years in each of those years for equipment that we have to release at the end of the current lease. And that's Page 15 in the investor chart.

因此，我們通常不會將其視為在任何一年都面臨太多挑戰。因此，我們通常會在本演示文稿中包括一張圖表，顯示我們機隊中有多少百分比即將到期——嗯，已經到期，並且在接下來的幾年中，我們必鬚髮布的設備每年都將到期在當前租約結束時。這是投資者圖表中的第 15 頁。

What that shows is for our dry containers and reefers, something like a little under 2.5% of the fleet by CEU has already expired and needs to be remarketed when it comes back to us. And then an additional, a little bit over 5% will expire during the course of 2023. Again, containers that are expiring and will still be leasing life and need to be remarketed. So in total, something in the range of 7% to 8% of our fleet is expiring off-lease this year or already expired and needs to be remarketed.

這表明我們的干貨集裝箱和冷藏箱，按 CEU 計算，大約有不到 2.5% 的船隊已經過期，需要在返回給我們時重新銷售。然後，還有 5% 多一點的容器將在 2023 年到期。同樣，即將到期但仍將處於租賃期的容器需要重新銷售。因此，總的來說，我們機隊中有 7% 到 8% 的東西今年將到期或已經到期，需要重新銷售。

That is a very low number for us historically. Probably last time we went into slower periods in the market in 2015 or 2019. Those numbers are probably 2 to 3x higher. And it's one of the reasons why we look at going forward and feel we've got a very nice projection for profitability and returns even if market conditions remain challenging for some time.

從歷史上看，這對我們來說是一個非常低的數字。上一次我們進入市場放緩時期可能是在 2015 年或 2019 年。這些數字可能高出 2 到 3 倍。這也是我們展望未來並認為即使市場狀況在一段時間內仍然充滿挑戰的情況下我們對盈利能力和回報有一個非常好的預測的原因之一。

Got it. And then maybe just on utilization, how should we think about sort of a floor level for utilization given the high mix of life cycle leases that you've built in here. Any thoughts around that?

知道了。然後也許就利用率而言，鑑於您在這裡建立的生命週期租賃的高度組合，我們應該如何考慮利用率的最低水平。有什麼想法嗎？

Yes. So again, we -- because of what you're talking about, the life cycle leases and just what I was saying before, that's very high percentage of containers locked away on multiyear leases, we do think the floor of utilization is going to be high. It's -- we include a lot of long-term statistics in our operating deck. But you can see that that's sort of, I'd say, a low point for utilization, if you go back to some of the charge we turned in previous years, has been increasing from something we got down to maybe 90% floor utilization in the financial crisis, perhaps 92%, 93% in the industrial recession in 2015 and '16, and it got down to maybe 95% during the trade of war of 2019 and the COVID lockdowns in the first part of '20. And it's been an increasing float.

是的。再說一次，我們——因為你所說的，生命週期租約以及我之前所說的，在多年租約中鎖定的集裝箱比例非常高，我們確實認為利用率的底線將是高的。它是 - 我們在我們的操作平台中包含了很多長期統計數據。但是你可以看到，我想說，這是利用率的低點，如果你回到我們前幾年的一些費用，已經從我們得到的東西增加到大約 90% 的地板利用率金融危機時，在 2015 年和 16 年的工業衰退中可能達到 92%、93%，在 2019 年的貿易戰和 20 年上半年的 COVID 封鎖期間下降到 95%。而且它一直在增加浮動。

We're hopeful that we'll continue to see that increase and that will see our utilization bottom somewhere in the mid- to upper 90s during this cycle. But again, we'll have to see how things progress. And obviously, if the cycle is somehow worse than prior cycles, that would offset some of the benefit of the improved lease portfolio. But overall, we're very confident that our performance -- our utilization, sort of our key leasing metrics will stay very strong because of the portfolio.

我們希望我們將繼續看到這種增長，並且在這個週期中我們的利用率將在 90 年代中期至上部的某個地方觸底。但同樣，我們必須看看事情的進展情況。顯然，如果這個週期比以前的周期更糟，那將抵消改善租賃組合帶來的一些好處。但總的來說，我們非常有信心我們的表現——我們的利用率，我們的關鍵租賃指標，由於投資組合，我們的表現將保持非常強勁。

Got it. And just a last follow-up. Maybe just talk about day rates where they are now versus a year ago and how you see that progressing. And then on the trading revenue side, they were down. But maybe just give some color, are liners looking to unload more boxes right now and just kind of help me think through that.

知道了。只是最後一次跟進。也許只是談論他們現在與一年前的日費率以及您如何看待這一進展。然後在交易收入方面，他們下降了。但也許只是給一些顏色，班輪現在是否希望卸下更多的箱子，只是幫助我思考一下。

Yes. So maybe just when it comes to sort of market leasing rates, we saw market leasing rates reach all-time record levels in 2021 and the very early days of 2022, just because box prices were very high, close to 2x the average for box prices. And since, I'd say, summer of 2022, we haven't seen a lot of leasing activity. Customers, as I was saying, are generally over boxed. And where we do see activity, it's very sort of small -- shipping lines might have requirements on a location and day basis just because they ran out for whatever operational reasons in certain locations. But rates have come down. And so I think the best thing to look at is new container prices, and new container prices peaked at close to $4,000 in either late '21 or early '22. They've -- we estimate right now we haven't bought containers for a while for the leasing fleet, but we believe it's in the range of $2,150 or so, $2,200 for new container prices. That's up a little bit from where it was at a low point perhaps in October, November. What that means lease rates, when the market tightens and we start doing transactions again, will be centered around where the container prices happen to be at the time.

是的。因此，也許就某種市場租賃率而言，我們看到市場租賃率在 2021 年和 2022 年初達到歷史最高水平，只是因為箱子價格非常高，接近箱子價格平均值的 2 倍.從 2022 年夏天開始，我們就沒有看到太多的租賃活動。正如我所說，客戶通常都被裝箱了。在我們確實看到活動的地方，它非常小——航運公司可能有一個位置和一天的要求，只是因為它們在某些位置出於任何運營原因用完了。但利率已經下降。因此，我認為最好看的是新集裝箱價格，新集裝箱價格在 21 世紀末或 22 年初達到接近 4,000 美元的峰值。他們 - 我們估計現在我們已經有一段時間沒有為租賃船隊購買集裝箱了，但我們相信它在 2,150 美元左右，新集裝箱價格為 2,200 美元。這比 10 月、11 月的低點略有上升。這意味著，當市場收緊並且我們再次開始交易時，租賃費率將以當時的集裝箱價格為中心。

Our next question will come from Liam Burke with B. Riley.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Liam Burke 和 B. Riley。

Brian, has there been any discussion -- I know the liners are -- or the container shippers are pretty strong in terms of balance sheet. So there's not a lot of fussing there. But is there any talk of any change in duration or rate on existing contracts?

布賴恩，有沒有討論過——我知道班輪是——或者集裝箱托運人在資產負債表方面非常強大。所以那裡沒有太多的大驚小怪。但是，是否有任何關於現有合同的期限或費率發生變化的討論？

Yes. So maybe just as you point out, one of the things that is very nice at this point in the cycle is that in prior down cycles in the shipping industry, there's always a lot of questions we've got from investors, and obviously, we look very carefully, too, on the credit condition of our customer base. And just the profitability and also -- and deleveraging that happened in the shipping industry has been extraordinary. So where we look at the credit of our customers has been in great shape despite the fact that they're heading into a more challenging period. And also, it is worthwhile noting for our customers, too, that when people talk about what's going on in the shipping cycle, that the ship orders have a very different order cycle than containers that we expect to see the vessel fleet continue to grow in 2023 and '24, where we're already seeing the container fleet shrinking.

是的。所以也許就像你指出的那樣，在周期的這個階段，一件非常好的事情是，在航運業之前的下行週期中，我們總是從投資者那裡得到很多問題，顯然，我們還要非常仔細地查看我們客戶群的信用狀況。航運業的盈利能力以及去槓桿化也非同尋常。因此，儘管客戶正進入更具挑戰性的時期，但我們對客戶信用的看法一直保持良好狀態。而且，對於我們的客戶來說，同樣值得注意的是，當人們談論運輸週期中發生的事情時，船舶訂單的訂單週期與我們期望看到船隊繼續增長的集裝箱的訂單週期非常不同2023 年和 24 年，我們已經看到集裝箱船隊在縮減。

And so again, it's that kind of core difference in the cycle for our market relative to cycle for our customers, the shipping lines. In terms of the focus on lease durations, we've actually found that over the last number of years, and we think it's going to continue, that there's a kind of a win-win thing we're seeing where customers are willing to keep containers on hire for a long periods of time, primarily on life cycle leases for used equipment. We like that because it takes volatility out of our business and gets us extra revenue years. And the customers do it for several reasons, not just because we push for it, but we're able to give the customers a discount on the per diem rates and return for extra years of duration just because we think of the re-leasing activity and the renewals on an NPV basis. And then also we're able to give our customers much greater logistical flexibility, which is going to have real backhaul savings for them by -- given our ability to sell containers all over the world, in particular in inland locations.

同樣，這是我們市場週期相對於我們的客戶、航運公司的周期的核心差異。在對租賃期限的關注方面，我們實際上發現，在過去的幾年裡，我們認為這種情況會繼續下去，我們看到了一種雙贏的事情，即客戶願意保留的地方長期租用集裝箱，主要是二手設備的生命週期租賃。我們喜歡這樣，因為它消除了我們業務的波動，並為我們帶來了額外的收入年。客戶這樣做有幾個原因，不僅僅是因為我們推動它，而且我們能夠為客戶提供每日津貼費率的折扣，並且僅僅因為我們想到了重新租賃活動，就可以在額外的期限內返回以及基於 NPV 的更新。然後我們還能夠為我們的客戶提供更大的物流靈活性，這將為他們帶來真正的回程節省 - 鑑於我們有能力在世界各地銷售集裝箱，特別是在內陸地區。

And so we've just kind of seen this general migration where maybe in the past, we had put a container on a long-term lease at the beginning and then several iterations or shorter-term leases, where now it really has become kind of a two-step model, an initial lease for new equipment that goes from in normal years, 5 to 8 years, last year or 2021 out to kind of 11, 12, 13 years. And then very often either the renewal or the pickup of used equipment is on to a life cycle lease that, in many cases, can carry out well past year 15.

因此，我們只是看到了這種普遍的遷移，也許在過去，我們在一開始就將容器置於長期租約中，然後進行了幾次迭代或短期租約，現在它真的變成了一個兩步模型，新設備的初始租賃期從正常年份的 5 到 8 年，去年或 2021 年延長到 11、12、13 年。然後，很多時候，舊設備的更新或回收都是基於生命週期租賃，在許多情況下，可以在 15 年之後執行。

Great. Michael, 12% of your debt is not fixed. How do you look at that in terms of capital allocation vis-a-vis the dividend and the buybacks?

偉大的。邁克爾，你有 12% 的債務是不固定的。你如何看待股息和回購的資本分配？

I think most of our sort of fixed and floating is just driven by our lease portfolio. We do try to hedge pretty much all of our long-term leases and finance leases to make sure that the debt that's financing those containers is locked in as the revenues are locked in. So that's really how we manage that kind of fixed floating balance, which is why it's in that kind of upper 80% category, which is also generally in line with what our lease portfolio looks like.

我認為我們的大多數固定和浮動資產只是由我們的租賃組合驅動的。我們確實嘗試對沖我們幾乎所有的長期租賃和融資租賃，以確保為這些集裝箱融資的債務在收入鎖定時被鎖定。所以這就是我們管理這種固定浮動餘額的真正方式，這就是為什麼它屬於那種 80% 以上的類別，這通常也符合我們的租賃組合的樣子。

Right. But during the year last year, you did reduce -- I mean, your net debt was reduced '22 over '21. Is there any thought on the portion that is not fixed or hedged on reducing that? Or are you going to maintain certain levels of debt for capital efficiency and then just buy back stock or pay dividends?

正確的。但在去年的一年裡，你確實減少了——我的意思是，你的淨債務比 21 年減少了 22 年。沒有固定或對沖的部分有沒有想過減掉？還是為了資本效率而維持一定水平的債務，然後回購股票或支付股息？

Our leverage has been -- let's say, leverage has been pretty consistent. That's something, I think, as Brian mentioned, that we were able to use tremendous cash flow to not only increase buybacks or buy back at a high level, but also deliver a little bit throughout the year. So that's kind of one decision point. I think how much is fixed or floating is more driven by the characteristics of our lease portfolio, if that makes sense.

我們的槓桿作用是——比方說，槓桿作用一直非常穩定。我認為，正如布賴恩提到的那樣，我們不僅能夠利用巨大的現金流來增加回購或高水平回購，而且還可以在全年交付一點。所以這是一個決定點。我認為固定或浮動的數量更多地取決於我們租賃組合的特徵，如果這有意義的話。

And when we think of leverage, we typically look at the ratio of our net debt compared to our revenue earning assets and actually adjusted a little bit for preferred stock and for some customer prepayments. But generally speaking, we try to keep that ratio in a relatively constant place. And so if assets are shrinking like they did towards the end of last year, usually, we're paying down debt in addition to using cash flow to buy back stock. If assets are growing, usually, we're issuing new debt to finance the -- at least a portion of that asset growth, again, maintaining constant leverage ratios. And as Michael said, that we look at the amount of debt and the balance of fixed and floating is being somewhat disconnected with the amount of debt being targeted towards keeping our ratios constant and the fixed floating -- through the fixed and floating mix really oriented around making sure that we're properly hedging our long-term lease portfolio.

當我們考慮槓桿時，我們通常會查看我們的淨債務與我們的創收資產的比率，並且實際上會針對優先股和一些客戶預付款項進行一些調整。但總的來說，我們試圖將這個比例保持在一個相對恆定的位置。因此，如果資產像去年年底那樣縮水，通常，除了使用現金流回購股票外，我們還會償還債務。如果資產在增長，通常情況下，我們會發行新的債務來資助——至少是資產增長的一部分，再次保持恆定的槓桿率。正如邁克爾所說，我們關注的債務數量以及固定和浮動的餘額與旨在保持我們的比率不變和固定浮動的債務數量有些脫節——通過固定和浮動組合真正導向確保我們正確地對沖我們的長期租賃組合。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Brian Sondey for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給 Brian Sondey 作任何閉幕詞。

I'd like to thank everyone for your continued interest and support for Triton. Thank you.

我要感謝大家對 Triton 的持續關注和支持。謝謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。