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Operator
Operator
Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the TC Energy third-quarter 2025 results conference call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to Gavin Wylie, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
感謝您的耐心等待。這裡是會議接線生。歡迎參加TC Energy 2025年第三季業績電話會議。(操作員指示)現在我將會議交給投資者關係副總裁加文·威利。請繼續。
Gavin Wylie - IR Contact Officer
Gavin Wylie - IR Contact Officer
Thanks very much, and good morning. I'd like to welcome you to TC Energy's third-quarter 2025 conference call. Joining me are Francois Poirier, President and Chief Executive Officer; Sean O'Donnell, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Tina Faraca, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, Natural Gas Pipelines, and Greg Grant, Executive Vice President and President, Power and Energy Solutions. Our agenda for today will start with Francois and our strategic update.
非常感謝,早安。歡迎各位參加 TC Energy 2025 年第三季電話會議。與我一同出席的還有總裁兼執行長弗朗索瓦·波里耶;執行副總裁兼首席財務官肖恩·奧唐納;執行副總裁兼天然氣管道首席營運官蒂娜·法拉卡;以及執行副總裁兼電力和能源解決方案總裁格雷格·格蘭特。我們今天的議程將首先由弗朗索瓦介紹我們的策略更新情況。
Tina and Greg will walk you through our business in more detail, and we'll wrap up with Sean's quarterly update and financial outlook before moving to Q&A. A copy of the slide presentation is also available on our website under the investors section. Following opening remarks, we'll take questions from the investment community. Please limit yourself to two questions, and if you're a member of the media, please contact our media team.
Tina 和 Greg 將更詳細地向您介紹我們的業務,最後我們將聽取 Sean 的季度更新和財務展望,然後進入問答環節。幻燈片簡報的副本也可在我們的網站投資者關係欄位中找到。開幕致詞結束後,我們將接受投資界的提問。請將問題數量限制為兩個,如果您是媒體成員,請聯絡我們的媒體團隊。
Today's remarks will include forward-looking statements that are subject to important risks and uncertainties. For more information, please see the reports filed by TC Energy, with Canadian Securities Regulators, and with the US Securities Exchange Commission.
今天的演講將包含一些前瞻性陳述,這些陳述存在重大風險和不確定性。有關更多信息,請參閱 TC Energy 向加拿大證券監管機構和美國證券交易委員會提交的報告。
Finally, we'll refer to certain non-GAAP measures that may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies. A reconciliation of these measures is contained in the appendix of the presentation. With that, I'll turn the call to Francois.
最後,我們將提及一些非GAAP指標,這些指標可能與其他公司提供的類似指標不具可比性。這些措施的協調情況載於簡報的附錄。接下來,我將把電話轉給弗朗索瓦。
Francois Poirier - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Francois Poirier - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Gavin, and good morning everyone. I want to begin by expressing my sincere appreciation for our team's unwavering commitment to safety and operational excellence. These are the cornerstones of how we operate and the reason we continue to deliver strong results quarter after quarter. I'm proud to report that our safety incident rates continue to trend at five-year lows, and through the first nine months of the year, comparable EBITDA has increased 8% year over year.
謝謝加文,大家早安。首先,我要對我們團隊在安全和卓越營運方面始終如一的承諾表示衷心的感謝。這些是我們營運的基石,也是我們能夠持續取得強勁業績的原因。我很自豪地報告,我們的安全事故率繼續保持在五年來的最低水平,並且在今年前九個月,可比 EBITDA 同比增長了 8%。
We've successfully placed $8 billion of assets into service on schedule and we're tracking approximately 15% under budget for those projects with 2025 in service dates. Today, I'm also pleased to announce an additional $700 million in new growth projects at a weighted average build multiple of 5.9 times.
我們已按計劃成功將價值 80 億美元的資產投入使用,並且對於 2025 年投入使用的項目,我們目前的預算執行率比預期低約 15%。今天,我還很高興地宣布新增 7 億美元的成長項目,加權平均建設倍數為 5.9 倍。
This takes our total sanctioned projects up to $5.1 billion over the last 12 months, largely capitalizing on the extensive demand we're seeing for power generation and data centers. Driven by exceptional project execution and capital optimization, we now expect 2025 net capital expenditures to be at the low end of our $5.5 billion to $6 billion range.
這使得我們在過去 12 個月內批准的項目總額達到 51 億美元,主要得益於我們看到的對發電和資料中心的大量需求。由於卓越的專案執行和資本優化,我們現在預計 2025 年淨資本支出將處於 55 億美元至 60 億美元範圍的低端。
When you combine that with our expected growth in comparable EBITDA, we have a clear line of sight to achieving our long-term target of 4.75 times debt to EBITDA, ensuring continued financial flexibility for future growth. These strong results continue to demonstrate that our focused strategy is delivering. Solid growth, low risk, and repeatable performance.
結合我們預期可比 EBITDA 的成長,我們就能清楚地看到實現債務與 EBITDA 比率為 4.75 倍的長期目標,從而確保未來成長的持續財務彈性。這些強勁的成績持續證明,我們專注的策略正在取得成效。穩健成長、低風險、績效可重複。
Across North America, the policy environment is becoming increasingly supportive, enabling more timely and cost-effective delivery of our projects to further ensure our infrastructure projects can meet the unprecedented growth in demand.
在整個北美地區,政策環境正變得越來越有利,這使得我們的專案能夠更及時、更經濟高效地交付,進一步確保我們的基礎設施專案能夠滿足前所未有的需求成長。
In Canada, recent developments are improving the regulatory environment for projects of national interest. This includes LNG Canada Phase II, which is directly enabled by our coastal gas link pipeline. In the US, recent actions to clarify in EPA's scope, accelerate agency review processes, and implement FERC and Department of Energy permitting reforms are all supportive of streamlining the process and reducing delays, driving further demand for natural gas as a reliable, dispatchable power source.
在加拿大,近期的發展正在改善國家利益項目的監管環境。這其中包括加拿大液化天然氣二期項目,該項目直接得益於我們的沿海天然氣管道。在美國,最近採取的明確環保署管轄範圍、加快機構審查程序以及實施聯邦能源監管委員會和能源部許可改革的措施,都有助於簡化流程、減少延誤,從而進一步推動對天然氣作為可靠、可調度能源的需求。
To be clear, this can be achieved without compromising core principles of safety, reliability, and environmental protection. And in Mexico, the economy is poised for significant expansion driven by strong fundamentals and President Sheinbaum Plan Mexico 2030, which aims to attract over $270 billion in investment through public-private partnerships.
需要明確的是,這可以在不損害安全性、可靠性和環境保護等核心原則的前提下實現。墨西哥經濟在強勁的基本面和總統謝因鮑姆的「墨西哥2030計畫」的推動下,有望實現顯著擴張。該計劃旨在透過公私合作吸引超過2700億美元的投資。
By 2030, the Mexican government plans to bring 8 gigawatts of new installed natural gas capacity online, and our assets are strategically positioned to support this necessary buildout. So when you look across all three countries, policy tailwinds are enabling growth initiatives that reinforce the value of our incumbent network.
到 2030 年,墨西哥政府計劃新增 8 吉瓦天然氣發電容量,而我們的資產已策略性地部署到位,以支持這項必要的建設。因此,縱觀這三個國家,政策利好正在推動成長舉措,從而鞏固我們現有網路的價值。
Over the past 12 months, our natural gas forecast has been revised 5 bcf a day higher, now calling for 45 bcf a day increase in natural gas demand by 2035. This is driven by electrification, LNG exports, and the rapid expansion of data centers. Meeting the increase in demand, we've set 14 new natural gas pipeline flow records across our systems in 2025, further reflecting our focus on operational excellence.
過去 12 個月,我們的天然氣預測值每天上調 50 億立方英尺,現在預計到 2035 年,天然氣需求量將增加 450 億立方英尺/天。這主要得益於電氣化、液化天然氣出口和資料中心的快速擴張。為了滿足不斷增長的需求,我們在 2025 年創造了 14 項新的天然氣管道流量記錄,進一步體現了我們對卓越營運的重視。
Looking beyond North American demand and driven largely by global electrification, we are the only operator capable of delivering natural gas to every major LNG export shoreline in Canada, the US, and Mexico. And today, as a result of that, we move approximately 30% of all feed gas bound for LNG export.
放眼北美以外的需求,並主要受全球電氣化進程的推動,我們是唯一一家能夠向加拿大、美國和墨西哥所有主要液化天然氣出口海岸線輸送天然氣的營運商。因此,如今我們輸送了約 30% 的用於液化天然氣出口的原料氣。
Now, additionally, TC Energy is the only midstream pier with a significant interest in nuclear power generation. In Ontario, nuclear capacity requirements are expected to nearly triple by 2050, highlighting the long-term potential opportunity for Bruce Power and our power portfolio.
此外,TC Energy 是唯一一家對核電生產有重大興趣的中游碼頭公司。預計到 2050 年,安大略省的核電產能需求將增加近三倍,凸顯了布魯斯電力公司及其電力組合的長期潛在機會。
As the outlook for natural gas and power demand continues to trend higher, TC Energy's extensive footprint is uniquely positioned to capture this growth. The robust fundamentals we're seeing in energy demand has generated over $5 billion in new high-quality executable projects that we have sanctioned over the last 12 months without moving up the risk curve.
隨著天然氣和電力需求前景持續走高,TC Energy憑藉其廣泛的業務佈局,在掌握這一成長機會方面佔據了獨特的優勢。我們看到能源需求的強勁基本面,在過去 12 個月中,我們批准了超過 50 億美元的高品質可執行新項目,而這些項目並沒有增加風險。
We remain focused on predominantly brown field in corridor expansions that leverage our existing footprint, minimize execution risk, and are underpinned by long-term contracts with utility and investment grade customers. The three new projects announced today are prime examples of how our strategy is working.
我們仍然專注於走廊擴建中的棕地項目,充分利用我們現有的佈局,最大限度地降低執行風險,並以與公用事業和投資級客戶的長期合約為基礎。今天宣布的這三個新項目正是我們策略奏效的絕佳例證。
Strategically located along our network, these investments are directly responding to accelerating incremental load growth, especially from data centers and power generation demand. Looking ahead, we expect the steady cadence of similarly high-quality project announcements to continue into 2026.
這些投資策略性地分佈在我們網路中,直接回應了不斷加速的增量負載成長,特別是來自資料中心和發電的需求。展望未來,我們預計類似高品質專案公告的穩定節奏將持續到 2026 年。
With attractive EBITDA build multiples in the 5 to 7 times range, further demonstrating our disciplined, value-driven approach. This next chart highlights the consistent upward trend in returns from our sanctioned capital program since 2020, all without compromising contract duration or taking on additional market risk.
EBITDA 倍數在 5 到 7 倍之間,極具吸引力,進一步證明了我們嚴謹的價值驅動方法。下一張圖表突顯了自 2020 年以來,我們經批准的資本計畫的回報持續上升的趨勢,而且沒有損害合約期限或承擔額外的市場風險。
With the addition of the three new projects announced today, our sanctioned portfolio for the year now stands at an implied weighted average unlevered after-tax IRR of approximately 12.5%, a meaningful increase from 8.5% just a few years ago.
隨著今天宣布的三個新項目的加入,我們今年的已批准投資組合的隱含加權平均無槓桿稅後內部收益率 (IRR) 約為 12.5%,比幾年前的 8.5% 有了顯著增長。
Looking ahead, we remain committed to our disciplined approach to capital allocation, ensuring that every dollar we invest is focused on maximizing returns and long-term value for our shareholders. So over the next decade, natural gas and electricity are expected to account for about 75% of the increase in final energy consumption, highlighting our role in the energy mix of the future.
展望未來,我們將繼續堅持嚴謹的資本配置方法,確保我們投資的每一美元都致力於為股東實現收益最大化和長期價值。因此,在未來十年,天然氣和電力預計將佔最終能源消費成長的約 75%,凸顯了我們在未來能源結構中的作用。
We believe our portfolio is one of one amongst our peers and highly aligned with the fastest growing segments of the energy market. We are over 85% long haul natural gas pipelines, almost entirely take or pay or cost of service commercial frameworks.
我們相信,我們的投資組合在同行中獨樹一幟,並且與能源市場成長最快的領域高度契合。我們超過 85% 的業務是長途天然氣管道,幾乎全部採用照付不議或成本服務商業模式。
We're one of the largest operators of natural gas storage, providing our customers with integrated pipe and storage solutions, which is a key competitive advantage, and we have over 30 years in the power business across multiple fuel types including our ownership in one of the world's largest operating nuclear facilities, Bruce Power.
我們是最大的天然氣儲存業者之一,為客戶提供一體化的管道和儲存解決方案,這是我們的關鍵競爭優勢。我們在電力產業擁有超過 30 年的經驗,涉及多種燃料類型,包括我們擁有的全球最大的營運核電廠之一——布魯斯核電廠。
But these assets combined with our low risk business model and the momentum from powerful market and policy tailwinds position us to continue to capture the creative opportunities. After adjusting for company size, we are leading our peers in sanctioned natural gas and power capital opportunities, converting these into our project backlog that is further extending our growth visibility through the end of the decade and beyond.
但這些資產,加上我們低風險的商業模式以及強勁的市場和政策順風帶來的發展勢頭,使我們能夠繼續抓住創新機會。考慮到公司規模,我們在已獲批准的天然氣和電力資本機會方面領先於同行,並將這些機會轉化為我們的項目儲備,從而進一步延長了我們在本十年末及以後的增長可見性。
And with that, I'll turn it over to Tina to speak in more detail on this opportunity set.
接下來,我將把發言權交給蒂娜,讓她更詳細地談談這個機會。
Tina Faraca - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer - Natural Gas Pipelines
Tina Faraca - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer - Natural Gas Pipelines
Thanks, Francois. With over 94,000 kilometers of pipelines across North America, TC Energy's network is delivering reliable supply at scale. The competitiveness of our footprint and our extensive customer relationships positioned us to win our fair share of this growing market.
謝謝你,弗朗索瓦。TC Energy 在北美擁有超過 94,000 公里的管道,其網路正在大規模地提供可靠的能源供應。我們憑藉著強大的市場競爭力以及廣泛的客戶關係,在這個不斷成長的市場中贏得了應有的份額。
Natural gas demand from power generation continues to accelerate, propelled by widespread electrification, coal to gas conversions, and the rapid expansion of data centers and AI infrastructure. In Alberta, our systems have seen an 80% increase in gas for power volumes over the past five years.
受電氣化普及、煤改氣以及資料中心和人工智慧基礎設施快速擴張的推動,發電領域對天然氣的需求持續加速成長。在過去的五年裡,阿爾伯塔省的天然氣發電量增加了 80%。
And with the queue of data center interconnections tripling over the last year, we are working closely with customers to ensure our assets can meet the market's evolving demands. In the US, approximately 40 gigawatts of coal-fired generation is expected to retire over the next decade, with the majority of that capacity anticipated to be replaced by natural gas generation.
過去一年,資料中心互連的需求量增加了兩倍,我們正在與客戶緊密合作,以確保我們的資產能夠滿足市場不斷變化的需求。在美國,預計未來十年將有約 40 吉瓦的燃煤發電裝置容量退役,其中大部分裝置容量預計將被天然氣發電所取代。
Across the pool landscape, the 170 gigawatts of current operational coal capacity equates to over 20 bcf per day of potential natural gas demand. Additionally, our assets are strategically positioned in key power growth markets like PJM and MISO, where forecasts for natural gas power capacity additions through the end of the decade have doubled compared to last year.
從整個能源池來看,目前營運的170吉瓦煤炭發電能力相當於每天超過200億立方英尺的潛在天然氣需求。此外,我們的資產策略性地分佈在 PJM 和 MISO 等關鍵電力成長市場,這些市場到本十年末的天然氣發電新增產能預測值比去年翻了一番。
Nearly 60% of US data center growth is expected within reach of our asset footprint, and we're collaborating across the entire value chain to deliver the natural gas that powers this transformation. Finally, in Mexico, our assets supply 20% of the nation's gas to power plants and will feed 80% of the new public tender natural gas generation projects entering service over the next five years.
預計美國近 60% 的資料中心成長將在我們的資產覆蓋範圍內,我們正在與整個價值鏈合作,提供推動這項轉型所需的天然氣。最後,在墨西哥,我們的資產為該國發電廠供應 20% 的天然氣,並將為未來五年內投入使用的新公開招標天然氣發電項目 80% 提供天然氣。
We have a 30-year relationship with the CFE, Mexico's national electricity provider. CFE is the primary driver behind the country's generation capacity expansion initiatives that we support through assets such as Southeast Gateway. Our connectivity to low cost supply, extensive footprint and market reach is the foundation for cost competitive system expansions.
我們與墨西哥國家電力公司(CFE)有著30年的合作關係。CFE 是國家發電能力擴張計劃的主要推動者,我們透過東南門戶等資產為該計劃提供支援。我們與低成本供應管道的連接、廣泛的業務覆蓋和市場影響力,是實現具有成本競爭力的系統擴展的基礎。
Additionally, our ability to deliver innovative commercial offerings is fundamentally rooted in the long-term customer relationships we've built across our footprint. It is these relationships that allow us to anticipate market opportunities and move quickly, bringing new projects into service and optimize capacity.
此外,我們能夠提供創新的商業產品,從根本上來說,是源自於我們在業務範圍內建立的長期客戶關係。正是這些關係使我們能夠預見市場機會並迅速行動,將新項目投入使用並優化產能。
Our ability to sanction over $5 billion of high-quality executable projects in the last 12 months is a direct result of this collaborative approach. Today's announcements demonstrate our ongoing ability to capitalize on gas for power demand within our footprint, and what we're seeing today and the evolution over the past 18 months gives me confidence that our development queue will continue to grow with high-quality, low risk, and executable projects.
在過去 12 個月裡,我們能夠批准超過 50 億美元的高品質可執行項目,正是這種協作方式的直接成果。今天的公告表明,我們有能力繼續利用天然氣來滿足我們業務範圍內的電力需求。我們今天所看到的以及過去 18 個月的發展讓我有信心,我們的開發項目將繼續增加,這些項目品質高、風險低、可執行。
We are at the forefront of natural gas pipeline growth. Within our development portfolio, we are originating growth opportunities representing $17 billion of potential value. Our strategy is anchored by four growth pillars. First, power generation is the greatest source of North American natural gas demand, and it is accelerating thanks to electrification, coal conversions, and the surging energy needs of data centers.
我們在天然氣管道發展領域處於領先地位。在我們的開發項目組合中,我們正在創造價值 170 億美元的成長機會。我們的策略以四大成長支柱為基礎。首先,發電是北美天然氣需求的最大來源,由於電氣化、煤炭發電轉型以及資料中心能源需求的激增,這項需求仍在加速成長。
Our footprint along expanding power markets and our long-standing relationships with our utility customers has resulted in a pipeline of origination opportunities that exceeds 7 billion cubic feet per day that have not been sanctioned to date.
我們在不斷擴大的電力市場中的業務佈局以及與公用事業客戶的長期合作關係,使我們累積了每天超過 70 億立方英尺的潛在項目,但這些項目至今尚未獲得批准。
North American LNG is entering a new era with over 60 million tons per annum of US export capacity reaching FID in 2025. And over the next decade we expect more than 10 new facilities to come online. Our existing assets enable us to efficiently serve this expanding market through brownfield developments.
北美液化天然氣正進入一個新時代,美國每年超過 6,000 萬噸的出口量將於 2025 年達到最終投資決定 (FID)。未來十年,我們預計將有超過 10 個新設施投入使用。我們現有的資產使我們能夠透過棕地開發有效地服務於這個不斷擴大的市場。
Local distribution companies or LDCs account for 20% of our average daily demand, supplying energy to 80 million homes. And during peak periods such as extreme cold, demand can triple. Our sizable natural gas storage portfolio and projects like our Southeast Virginia Energy Storage Project, a template for future reliability initiatives, play a critical role in ensuring reliable supply and resilience for our customers.
地方配電公司(LDC)占我們平均每日需求的 20%,為 8,000 萬戶家庭提供能源。在極端寒冷等高峰期,需求量可能會增加兩倍。我們龐大的天然氣儲存組合和項目,例如我們的東南維吉尼亞儲能項目(未來可靠性計畫的模板),在確保我們客戶的可靠供應和韌性方面發揮著至關重要的作用。
By 2035, we expect that 60% of North American gas production will move through TC Energy connected basins, providing our pipelines long-term abundant, low-cost supply. This strategic advantage allows us to respond swiftly to market shifts, supply migration, and support the evolving needs of our customers.
到 2035 年,我們預計北美 60% 的天然氣產量將透過 TC Energy 連接的盆地輸送,為我們的管道提供長期充足、低成本的供應。這項策略優勢使我們能夠迅速應對市場變化、供應鏈遷移,並支援客戶不斷變化的需求。
We are growing our capabilities, harnessing technology and innovation to meet safety, reliability, and regulatory standards while unlocking new commercial and operational potential. Every day, our teams process vast amounts of information.
我們正在不斷提升自身能力,利用技術和創新來滿足安全、可靠性和監管標準,同時釋放新的商業和營運潛力。我們的團隊每天都要處理大量資訊。
Quickly draw insights, and then make smart decisions that can translate into higher EBITDA contribution while mitigating risk. Our approach to AI adoption is to break it down into focused initiatives to ensure faster execution.
快速取得洞察,然後做出明智的決策,從而提高 EBITDA 貢獻,同時降低風險。我們採用人工智慧技術的方法是將其分解為若干重點明確的舉措,以確保更快執行。
We have developed an integrity-focused AI platform that automates document verification and compliance workflows, cutting review times from hours to minutes and reducing risk across our asset base. And recent breakthroughs in the ability to reliably train AI with large volumes of data are allowing us to enhance safety and sustainability.
我們開發了一個以誠信為中心的 AI 平台,可自動執行文件驗證和合規工作流程,將審核時間從數小時縮短到數分鐘,並降低我們資產基礎的風險。最近,利用大量資料可靠地訓練人工智慧的能力取得了突破性進展,這使我們能夠提高安全性和永續性。
Our pipeline blowdown emissions reduction program uses advanced methods and automation to minimize emissions during maintenance, supporting our environmental commitments and regulatory compliance. Commercially, we are driving smarter decisions across capacity optimization and short-term marketing by using agentic AI.
我們的管道排污減排計畫採用先進的方法和自動化技術,最大限度地減少維護期間的排放,從而履行我們的環境承諾並遵守監管法規。在商業領域,我們利用智慧人工智慧推動產能優化和短期行銷方面的更明智決策。
We are also using advanced algorithms to recommend optimal pipeline configurations and available capacity on our US assets in real time, improving throughput and reliability while maintaining safety and compliance.
我們也利用先進的演算法,即時推薦美國資產的最佳管道配置和可用容量,在保持安全性和合規性的同時,提高吞吐量和可靠性。
And we have developed a commercial intelligence platform to simplify access to external and third-party commercial information, overlaying it with our own data and capacity modeling to understand our customer needs and market conditions.
我們還開發了一個商業智慧平台,以簡化對外部和第三方商業資訊的訪問,並將其與我們自己的數據和能力模型相結合,從而了解我們的客戶需求和市場狀況。
This means we can respond to customer needs more quickly, optimize asset utilization, and capture incremental revenue opportunities while maintaining transparency and governance. We are identifying opportunities to implement innovation and technology at scale across the organization, and we see a significant potential for our systems to be smarter and drive a stronger performance.
這意味著我們可以更快地回應客戶需求,優化資產利用率,並在保持透明度和治理的同時抓住增量收入機會。我們正在尋找機會,在整個組織內大規模實施創新和技術,我們看到了我們的系統變得更聰明、更強大的巨大潛力。
For projects being placed into service this year, I'm extremely pleased to report that our teams have delivered and we are currently trending approximately 15% under budget. Over the past few years, we have developed a series of enhancements that have fundamentally improved our capital allocation and project development rigor, increasing capital efficiency and cost management across our capital programs.
對於今年投入使用的項目,我非常高興地報告,我們的團隊已經交付完成,目前我們的預算比預期節省了約 15%。過去幾年,我們進行了一系列改進,從根本上提高了我們的資本配置和專案開發嚴謹性,提高了我們整個資本專案的資本效率和成本管理。
We've enhanced our project risk reviews prior to sanctioning, enabling capital allocation decisions to be grounded in robust, validated project fundamentals, ensuring that risk funding is precisely targeted, estimates are more accurate, and overall capital efficiency is significantly enhanced. We have also strengthened our front-end project development discipline, allowing for deeper rights holder and stakeholder engagement and more thorough project analysis.
我們在批准專案之前加強了專案風險審查,使資本分配決策能夠基於穩健、經過驗證的專案基本面,從而確保風險資金得到精準投放,估算更加準確,整體資本效率顯著提高。我們也加強了前端專案開發流程,從而能夠更深入地與權利持有人和利害關係人進行溝通,並進行更徹底的專案分析。
This has resulted in high-quality estimates and risk assessments driving more reliable cost projections and enabling us to manage risks with greater confidence and precision. The results, we have delivered 23 out of 25 of our sanctioned projects on or ahead of schedule while tracking 15% under budget for the year, fully aligned with our strategic priorities. Again, an exceptional job by all the respective teams.
這使得我們能夠進行高品質的估算和風險評估,從而得出更可靠的成本預測,並使我們能夠更有信心和更精確地管理風險。結果顯示,我們已按時或提前完成了 25 個獲批項目中的 23 個,同時全年預算節省了 15%,完全符合我們的策略重點。再次強調,各團隊都表現出色。
With that, I'll pass to Greg to update you on our power and energy solutions business.
接下來,我將把麥克風交給格雷格,讓他向大家報告我們的電力和能源解決方案業務狀況。
Greg Grant - Executive Vice-President and President, Power & Energy Solutions
Greg Grant - Executive Vice-President and President, Power & Energy Solutions
Thank you, Tina. As Francoise noted, our portfolio is one of a kind, highly aligned with the fastest growing segments of the energy market. Anchored by our position in nuclear power, our power and energy solutions business is designed to deliver complementary solutions that drive incremental shareholder value.
謝謝你,蒂娜。正如弗朗索瓦絲所指出的,我們的投資組合是獨一無二的,與能源市場成長最快的領域高度契合。依託我們在核電領域的地位,我們的電力和能源解決方案業務旨在提供互補解決方案,從而為股東創造更多價值。
Importantly, this portfolio is built for scalability. We can grow with market demand, adapt to evolving energy needs, and capitalize on opportunities that allow us to deliver solid growth, low risk that are repeatable for decades to come.
重要的是,該投資組合的設計具有可擴展性。我們可以隨著市場需求成長,適應不斷變化的能源需求,並抓住機遇,實現穩健成長,降低風險,並在未來幾十年內持續發展。
In the near term, our focus is on maximizing the value of our existing assets. At the core of this effort is the on-time, on budget execution of our major component replacement program, or MCR at Bruce Power. These extend reactor life until at least 2,064 while improving the availability of our nuclear fleet.
短期內,我們的重點是最大限度地提高現有資產的價值。這項工作的核心是按時、按預算執行布魯斯電力公司的主要部件更換計劃(MCR)。這些措施可將反應器壽命延長至至少 2,064 年,同時提高我們核電廠的可用性。
As realized prices continue to rise and availability improves with the completion of each unit's MCR, this performance is translating into incremental revenue and stronger financial results. By leveraging our expertise across natural gas and power, we're also capturing value through commercial marketing, system optimization, while maximizing availability of our co-generation fleet.
隨著實際價格持續上漲,以及每個單位的 MCR 完成,供貨情況有所改善,這種業績正在轉化為增量收入和更強勁的財務表現。透過利用我們在天然氣和電力方面的專業知識,我們也透過商業行銷、系統優化來創造價值,同時最大限度地提高我們熱電聯產機組的可用性。
Our 118 bcf of non-regulated natural gas storage in Canada is a prime example of where we have the ability to generate incremental EBITDA in a highly dynamic market. Looking ahead, we're positioned to build on the incumbency of our North American footprint, deep customer relationships, core capabilities in natural gas transmission, storage, and nuclear power.
我們在加拿大擁有 1,180 億立方英尺的非管制天然氣儲存能力,這充分說明了我們能夠在高度動態的市場中創造增量 EBITDA。展望未來,我們已做好準備,利用我們在北美的現有佈局、深厚的客戶關係以及在天然氣輸送、儲存和核能方面的核心能力,繼續發展壯大。
We have a strong foundation to scale our operations and deliver complementary solutions at the intersection of the molecule and the electron that will unlock incremental value across the energy chain. The proposed Ontario pumped storage project is a great example of the optionality we have in our portfolio. The 1,000 megawatt storage project will provide critical, fast response reliability to the grid and complements our nuclear position in Ontario.
我們擁有強大的基礎,可以擴大業務規模,並在分子和電子的交匯處提供互補解決方案,從而在整個能源鏈中釋放增量價值。擬建的安大略省抽水蓄能項目是我們投資組合中多種選擇的絕佳例證。1000兆瓦儲能專案將為電網提供關鍵的快速響應可靠性,並補充我們在安大略省的核能地位。
By utilizing long duration storage, we can store excess electricity during low demand periods and help meet peak needs. This reduces overall the capacity requirements across the province. Looking to the next decade, Bruce Power is uniquely positioned for growth. In a market where electricity demand is expected to grow by 75% through 2050.
利用長時儲能技術,我們可以在電力低谷期儲存多餘的電力,並協助滿足用電高峰期的需求。這將降低全省的整體產能需求。展望未來十年,布魯斯電力公司擁有得天獨厚的成長優勢。在電力需求預計到 2050 年將成長 75% 的市場。
With the brownfield site, greater than 90% Canadian-based supply chain, and strong alignment from all levels of government, Bruce Power is uniquely positioned to support the required baseload expansion in the province.
憑藉棕地、90% 以上的加拿大本土供應鏈以及各級政府的大力支持,布魯斯電力公司擁有獨特的優勢,能夠支持該省所需的基本負載擴張。
While a decision to advance a new build is still years away, we have initiated a federal impact assessment for the potential 4,800 megawatt Bruce C project. This early work creates the optionality for long-term expansion backed by Bruce Power's prudent management team and execution capabilities.
雖然距離推進新建設項目還有數年時間,但我們已經啟動了對潛在的 4,800 兆瓦 Bruce C 項目的聯邦影響評估。這項早期工作為長期擴張創造了選擇餘地,而布魯斯電力公司審慎的管理團隊和執行能力為其提供了支持。
At the same time, we're building low carbon capabilities to ensure that we're prepared to respond to market shifts and capitalize on strategic growth opportunities when market signals and customer demand emerges. These strategic investments in technologies and innovation not only create new opportunities but have application in supporting emissions reduction in our natural gas infrastructure, enhancing the long-term value of our systems.
同時,我們正在建立低碳能力,以確保我們能夠應對市場變化,並在市場訊號和客戶需求出現時抓住策略成長機會。這些對技術和創新的策略性投資不僅創造了新的機遇,而且有助於減少我們天然氣基礎設施的排放,從而提升我們系統的長期價值。
There are many attributes that make Bruce Power exceptional and unique. The Bruce Power team is best in class, and we're seeing that in project execution. The team continues to deliver on time, on budget, across our replacement program.
布魯斯電力公司擁有許多使其卓越非凡的獨特特質。Bruce Power 團隊是業界最優秀的,我們在專案執行中也看到了這一點。團隊在整個替換專案中繼續按時按預算交付成果。
The MCR program replaces critical reactor components, extending operational life by at least 35 years per unit, while simultaneously increasing availability. With a focus on enhancing both refurbishment efficiency and ongoing reliability, Bruce Power has been a pioneer in automation technologies.
MCR計畫更換關鍵反應器零件,使每個機組的運轉壽命至少延長35年,同時提高可用性。Bruce Power 一直致力於提高翻新效率和持續可靠性,是自動化技術的先驅。
The team deployed the world's first robotic tooling machine on a reactor face, enabling skilled tradespeople to perform complex maintenance tasks safely, successfully, and on schedule, all while minimizing radiation exposure. Is shown on the left hand side. These innovations have transformed Bruce Power's operational performance. Units refurbished under the MCR will see increased availability.
該團隊在反應爐表面部署了世界上第一台機器人工具機,使技術熟練的技工能夠安全、成功、按時地執行複雜的維護任務,同時最大限度地減少輻射暴露。顯示在左側。這些創新改變了布魯斯電力公司的營運績效。根據 MCR 計劃進行翻新的單位將增加可用性。
Like unit 6, which achieved over a 99% availability in 2024 after the completion of its MCR. That's compared to a historical average of 84% before the program began. And the financial impact is clear. More megawatt hours made available combined with increased realized prices that reflect our capital investment, inflation, and some other factors will drive stronger financial performance for decades.
就像 6 號機組一樣,在完成 MCR 改造後,2024 年的可用性達到了 99% 以上。相比之下,該計劃開始前的歷史平均值為 84%。經濟影響顯而易見。更多的兆瓦時電力供應,加上反映我們資本投資、通貨膨脹和其他一些因素的實際價格上漲,將推動未來幾十年更強勁的財務表現。
Through innovation and disciplined execution, Bruce Power continues to be a leader in this space. Today, we're investing approximately $1 billion annually in Brust Power. This is expected to increase site capacity to over 7 gigawatts by 2033.
憑藉創新和嚴謹的執行力,布魯斯電力公司繼續保持該領域的領先地位。如今,我們每年向 Brust Power 投資約 10 億美元。預計到 2033 年,這將使該站點的容量增加到 7 吉瓦以上。
All of this output is secured under a long-term power purchase agreement with Ontario's ISO through 2,064. This provides visibility to predictable cash flows and long-term revenue. As shown on the chart, the financial upside is very compelling. Equity income is expected to double from $750 million today to $1.6 billion by 2035.
所有這些產出都透過與安大略省獨立系統營運商 (ISO) 簽訂的長期購電協議得到保障,該協議有效期至 2064 年。這有助於預測現金流和長期收入。如圖所示,財務收益非常可觀。預計股權收益將從目前的 7.5 億美元翻一番,到 2035 年達到 16 億美元。
Over the same period, free cash flow is projected to grow substantially, generating nearly $8 billion in net distributions. This growing free cash flow gives us the flexibility to deploy capital where it creates the most value.
同期,自由現金流預計將大幅成長,產生近 80 億美元的淨分配。不斷增長的自由現金流使我們能夠靈活地將資本部署到最能創造價值的地方。
Whether that's capturing growth opportunities across the natural gas system, expanding our nuclear footprint, accelerating low carbon initiatives, or capitalizing on opportunities that enhance the complementary service offering across our footprint. We can leverage our scalable, differentiated portfolio to invest in areas aligned with long-term market trends and deliver repeatable performance.
無論是抓住天然氣系統的成長機會,擴大我們的核能版圖,加速低碳計劃,或是利用各種機會來增強我們業務範圍內的互補服務。我們可以利用我們可擴展、差異化的投資組合,投資於符合長期市場趨勢的領域,並實現可重複的績效。
I'll pass to Sean now to walk through the numbers.
現在交給肖恩來解讀這些數字。
Sean O'Donnell - Executive Vice-President, Strategy and Corporate Development and Chief Financial Officer
Sean O'Donnell - Executive Vice-President, Strategy and Corporate Development and Chief Financial Officer
Thanks Greg. Good morning everybody. I'll start with a few of the operational and financial highlights achieved in the third quarter. Most notably, each pipeline business increased its average daily flows on their way to setting the 14 all-time high delivery records that Francois mentioned.
謝謝格雷格。大家早安。我先介紹一下第三季取得的一些營運和財務方面的亮點。最值得注意的是,每家管道企業都在創下弗朗索瓦提到的 14 項歷史最高輸送記錄的過程中,提高了其平均每日流量。
I would highlight our US natural gas business in particular, which saw LNG flows increase 15% this quarter, as well as setting a new peak delivery record of 4 bcf per day.
我特別想重點介紹我們的美國天然氣業務,該業務的液化天然氣流量在本季度增長了 15%,並創下了每天 40 億立方英尺的新峰值交付記錄。
In Mexico, our network is tracking towards 100% availability year-to-date at the same time that Mexico's daily gas imports are averaging 4% higher than 2025 than 2024. Mexico also saw its highest peak import day of record in August for over 8 bcf a day.
在墨西哥,我們的管網今年迄今的可用性正朝著 100% 邁進,與此同時,墨西哥的每日天然氣進口量平均比 2024 年高出 4%。墨西哥8月的單日進口天然氣量也創下歷史新高,超過80億立方英尺。
We also had our first four quarter EBITDA contribution from Southeast Gateway, driving our comparable results up 57% in the quarter. In our power and energy solutions business, Bruce Power achieved 94% availability, which includes the planned outages on units three and four, and is in line with our expected annual availability in the low 90% range for full-year 2025.
東南門戶公司也首次為我們貢獻了四個季度的 EBITDA,推動我們本季可比業績成長了 57%。在我們的電力和能源解決方案業務中,布魯斯電力公司實現了 94% 的可用性,其中包括三號和四號機組的計劃停機,這與我們預計 2025 年全年可用性在 90% 左右的預期相符。
Turning to the top of the EBITDA bridge on the right-hand side, you'll see that we generated $2.7 billion in comparable EBITDA in the quarter, which was a 10% increase year-over-year. The 10% growth reflects a 13% increase in our natural gas pipelines network, partially offset by an 18% reduction in our power and energy solution segment.
轉到右側 EBITDA 橋的頂部,您會看到我們本季產生了 27 億美元的可比 EBITDA,年成長 10%。10% 的成長反映了我們天然氣管道網路成長了 13%,但部分被電力和能源解決方案部門下降 18% 所抵消。
Let me walk you through the components of those changes, starting with Canada Gas, where EBITDA increased by $68 million due to higher incentive earnings, higher depreciation, higher income taxes on the NGTL system, partially offset by lower flow through financial charges. In the US, EBITDA increased by $60 million, primarily from our Columbia gas settlement, partially offset by higher O&M costs.
讓我帶您了解這些變化的組成部分,首先是加拿大天然氣公司,由於激勵收益增加、折舊增加、NGTL 系統所得稅增加,其 EBITDA 增加了 6800 萬美元,但部分被較低的財務費用抵消。在美國,EBITDA 增加了 6000 萬美元,主要來自我們在哥倫比亞的天然氣結算,但部分被更高的營運和維護成本所抵消。
We also continue to see incremental earnings from new customers and commercial innovations and monetizing available capacity on existing pipelines and the nine new projects that our team's placed into service this year. Our Mexico business EBITDA increased primarily due to Southeast Gateway, which is partially offset by lower equity earnings from Sur de Texas as a result of the strengthening peso.
我們還持續從新客戶和商業創新中獲得增量收益,並透過現有管道的可用產能以及我們團隊今年投入使用的九個新項目來實現盈利。我們的墨西哥業務 EBITDA 成長主要歸功於 Southeast Gateway,但由於比索走強,Sur de Texas 的股權收益下降,部分抵消了這一增長。
Lastly, in our power and energy solutions business, equity income for Bruce Power was lower quarter over quarter as we began the two unit MCR outage program earlier this year versus only a single unit being in its planned MCR outage in the third quarter of 2024.
最後,在我們的電力和能源解決方案業務中,由於我們今年早些時候啟動了兩個機組的 MCR 停機計劃,而原計劃在 2024 年第三季度進行 MCR 停機,因此 Bruce Power 的股權收入環比下降。
That said, execution of the dual MCR program is going very well, slightly ahead of schedule as Greg mentioned. And our unregulated natural gas storage portfolio of EBITDA is benefiting from the increased volatility and storage spreads in Alberta.
也就是說,雙 MCR 專案的執行進展非常順利,正如 Greg 所提到的,比原計劃略微提前了一些。而我們不受監管的天然氣儲存組合的 EBITDA 則受益於阿爾伯塔省不斷增加的波動性和儲存價差。
Turning to our financial outlook, we're reaffirming our 2025 outlook for comparable EBITDA that we revised higher last quarter. As a reminder, we delivered year-over-year growth of 6% from 2023 to '24, and we remain on track to achieve 7% to 9% growth from 2024 to '25.
展望財務前景,我們重申上季上調的 2025 年可比 EBITDA 預期。提醒一下,我們在 2023 年至 2024 年實現了 6% 的年增長率,並且我們仍然預計在 2024 年至 2025 年實現 7% 至 9% 的增長。
Looking ahead to 2026, we anticipate delivering another year of strong performance with year-over-year growth of 6% to 8%. This sustained performance underscores the strength and repeatability of our base business.
展望 2026 年,我們預計將迎來強勁的一年業績,年增 6% 至 8%。這一持續的良好表現凸顯了我們基礎業務的實力和可複製性。
With the inventory of growth projects over the next three years that Francois and Tina highlighted, we are positioned to deliver EBITDA growth of 5% to 7% with a 2028 comparable outlook of $12.6 billion to $13.1 billion of EBITDA.
弗朗索瓦和蒂娜重點介紹了未來三年內一系列成長項目,我們預計將實現 EBITDA 成長 5% 至 7%,2028 年 EBITDA 預計為 126 億美元至 131 億美元。
On the right hand side of the page we're recapping some of the tailwinds that have been mentioned this morning that we're working on. We have several items supporting our three-year outlook. We have multiple revenue enhancing rate case outcomes in process and several more pending. We have increasingly supportive regulatory frameworks that could accelerate our project delivery timelines.
頁面右側,我們回顧了今天早上提到的一些我們正在努力實現的有利因素。我們有幾個內容支撐著我們對未來三年的展望。我們正在處理多起提高收入的費率調整方案,還有幾起待處理。我們擁有越來越完善的支援性監管框架,這可以加快我們的專案交付進度。
We have multiple strategies for increasing asset availability, and we're working on technological and commercial innovations that each improve our capital efficiency across operations and project development. Any combination of those drivers will position us to maximize the value of our existing assets and our financial results.
我們制定了多種策略來提高資產可用性,並且正在致力於技術和商業創新,以提高我們在營運和專案開發方面的資本效率。這些因素的任何組合都將使我們能夠最大限度地發揮現有資產的價值並提高財務表現。
Shifting to our investment outlook. We introduced this capital allocation dashboard at last year's Investor Day to demonstrate that TC has uniquely clear visibility on its growth drivers through the end of the decade. Over the past year we've sanctioned an additional $5.1 billion of primarily in corridor brownfield projects predominantly in the US natural gas pipeline business unit.
接下來談談我們的投資展望。我們在去年的投資者日上推出了這個資本配置儀錶盤,旨在表明 TC 對未來十年末的成長驅動因素有著非常清晰的了解。過去一年,我們額外批准了 51 億美元的投資,主要用於走廊棕地項目,主要集中在美國天然氣管道業務部門。
The steady momentum of project approvals, particularly in the US, demonstrates the attractiveness of our assets to utility, LNG, and data center customers, which will position us for steady growth through the end of the decade and beyond.
專案審批的穩定推進,尤其是在美國,顯示我們的資產對公用事業、液化天然氣和資料中心客戶具有吸引力,這將使我們在十年末及以後保持穩步成長。
By the end of next year, we expect the FID a series of projects that will fill out our $6 billion net annual investment allocation target through 2030, all with build multiples in the 5 to 7 times range. This will be achieved through sanctioning the $6 billion of late stage opportunities currently pending approval shown in the gray bars on the slide and allocating the remaining only $3.5 billion of white space from a large portfolio of earlier stage projects that are currently competing for internal capital.
到明年年底,我們預計將做出最終投資決定,一系列項目將完成我們到 2030 年每年 60 億美元的淨投資分配目標,所有項目的建設倍數都在 5 到 7 倍之間。這將透過批准目前待審批的60億美元後期專案機會(如幻燈片上的灰色條所示)以及從目前正在爭奪內部資金的大量早期專案組合中分配剩餘的35億美元空白來實現。
Given the level of advanced activity in gas origination and the overall $17 billion of projects under review, we feel confident in our ability to fill this chart to the annual $6 billion level through the end of the decade. Our disciplined capital allocation framework enables growth by underwriting projects that deliver the highest possible risk adjusted returns while also ensuring we preserve our financial strength and flexibility and our long-term leverage target of 4.75 times.
鑑於天然氣開採活動的進展程度以及正在審查的總金額達 170 億美元的項目,我們有信心在本十年末之前將每年 60 億美元的項目規模填滿該圖表。我們嚴謹的資本配置架構透過承銷能夠帶來最高風險調整後回報的專案來實現成長,同時確保我們保持財務實力和靈活性,並實現 4.75 倍的長期槓桿目標。
From a sources and uses perspective, our three-year plan requires approximately $31 billion in aggregate funding. About 80% of that funding is expected to come from operating cash flows, which is an improvement from last year's internal funding ratio of only 77%.
從資金來源和用途的角度來看,我們的三年計畫需要約 310 億美元的總資金。預計其中約 80% 的資金將來自營運現金流,比去年的內部資金比率僅為 77% 有所改善。
The remaining 20% of our funding is expected to come from a combination of bond and hybrid issuances. The $6 billion in external funding is supported by the incremental annual EBITDA growth we expect to generate by 2028, which will create additional balance sheet capacity at or below our 4.75 times leverage target. The key takeaway is that our strong operating cash flows and balance sheet capacity result in no equity issuance required to deliver this plan.
剩餘的 20% 資金預計將透過債券和混合債券的發行來實現。預計到 2028 年,每年 EBITDA 將實現增量成長,從而為 60 億美元的外部融資提供支持,這將使我們的資產負債表槓桿率達到或低於 4.75 倍的目標水準。關鍵在於,我們強勁的營運現金流和資產負債表實力使得我們無需發行股票即可實現該計劃。
With that update, I'll pass the call back to Francois.
有了這些最新消息,我會把電話轉回給弗朗索瓦。
Francois Poirier - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Francois Poirier - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Sean. In summary, our strategy is working. As we look ahead, our focus remains squarely on the priorities that have proven successful. First, maximizing the value of our assets through safety and operational excellence, while leveraging commercial and technological innovation.
謝謝你,肖恩。總之,我們的策略奏效了。展望未來,我們的重點仍然完全放在那些已被證明行之有效的優先事項上。首先,透過安全和卓越運營,最大限度地發揮我們資產的價值,同時利用商業和技術創新。
Second, prioritizing low risk high return growth, including placing projects in service on time and on budget or better and allocating our remaining net annual investment capacity through 2030 within our targeted build multiples range of 5 to 7 times without moving up the risk curve.
其次,優先考慮低風險高回報的成長,包括按時按預算或更優地完成專案並投入使用,並在 2030 年前將剩餘的年度淨投資能力分配到我們 5 到 7 倍的目標建設倍數範圍內,而不增加風險。
And third, maintaining that financial strength and agility to support long-term value creation through capital discipline and efficiency. With our asset base and strong momentum, I am confident we can deliver low risk, repeatable growth into the next decade.
第三,維持財務實力和靈活性,透過資本紀律和效率來支持長期價值創造。憑藉我們的資產基礎和強勁的發展勢頭,我有信心在未來十年實現低風險、可重複的成長。
Operator, we're now ready to take questions.
接線員,我們現在可以開始回答問題了。
Operator
Operator
We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)
現在開始問答環節。(操作說明)
Praneeth Satish, Wells Fargo.
Praneeth Satish,富國銀行。
Praneeth Satish - Analyst
Praneeth Satish - Analyst
Thanks, good morning. I think if we just zoom out for a second and think about EBITDA growth on a longer time frame than 2028, it would seem to me like the current mid-single-digit CAGR guidance can be sustained for a long time past 2028.
謝謝,早安。我認為,如果我們把目光放長遠一些,把 EBITDA 成長的時間跨度延長到 2028 年以上,那麼目前個位數的複合年增長率預期在 2028 年之後很長一段時間內都可以維持下去。
The backlog is very large on the gas side. ROIC is increasing, and then, when you get out to 2030, there's at least $1 billion to $2 billion per year of CapEx capacity that opens up with Bruce Power. So I know you aren't formally guiding past 2028, but can you maybe walk us through the puts and takes that shape your long-term EBITDA growth trajectory and how long that 5% to 7% CAGR can be maintained?
天然氣方面的積壓訂單非常多。ROIC 正在增加,到 2030 年,隨著 Bruce Power 的加入,每年至少會有 10 億至 20 億美元的資本支出產能開放。我知道您沒有正式發布 2028 年以後的業績指引,但您能否為我們詳細介紹一下影響您長期 EBITDA 成長軌蹟的因素,以及 5% 至 7% 的複合年增長率可以維持多久?
Sean O'Donnell - Executive Vice-President, Strategy and Corporate Development and Chief Financial Officer
Sean O'Donnell - Executive Vice-President, Strategy and Corporate Development and Chief Financial Officer
Praneeth, its Sean. I'll take that question. Great question. You highlighted on Francois Page 9, those IRRs going to kind of 12.5% right now. That is -- that's critical, right, for us to continue to see those types of return levels, to be able to allocate capital in that 29% and 30% period.
Praneeth,是 Sean。我來回答這個問題。問得好。你在弗朗索瓦第 9 頁重點提到,目前內部報酬率 (IRR) 大約是 12.5%。也就是說,這對我們繼續看到那種回報水平,能夠在 29% 到 30% 的時期內配置資本至關重要。
And I'll tell you a little bit of what's happening. Small to mid-size projects were taken down very quickly, but projects are getting bigger and more complex, and that's where're just -- that's what we want to wait to see. Can we continue to push returns and capital allocation up in the 29 to 30 time frame. So if these returns remain true, then I do think you'll see the same kind of midpoint of growth, if not potentially better, but the projects are just taking a little bit longer for us to have that degree of clarity.
我來簡單介紹一下目前的情況。中小型專案很快就被取消了,但專案規模越來越大,也越來越複雜,而這正是我們——這正是我們想拭目以待的地方。我們能否在 29 至 30 年的時間範圍內繼續提高回報率和資本配置?所以如果這些回報保持不變,那麼我認為你會看到同樣的中期成長,甚至可能更好,但這些專案需要更長的時間才能讓我們獲得這種程度的清晰度。
Praneeth Satish - Analyst
Praneeth Satish - Analyst
Got it. That's helpful. And maybe if I can follow-up on that line of questioning here. So as leverage trends lower over the next few years, seems like there's a lot of balance sheet capacity that opens up, especially as you get out to 2028.
知道了。那很有幫助。或許我可以就此問題繼續追問下去。因此,隨著未來幾年槓桿率趨勢下降,似乎會有許多資產負債表空間釋放出來,尤其是在 2028 年。
So, I know you kind of reiterated the $6 billion per year of CapEx, but is there room to scale towards $7 billion or even $8 billion at some point over the next few years, or should we kind of assume a more conservative leverage targets over time? Any update on kind of how you're thinking about that longer-term, CapEx cadence?
我知道您重申了每年 60 億美元的資本支出目標,但未來幾年內是否有空間將規模擴大到 70 億美元甚至 80 億美元?或者我們應該隨著時間的推移假設一個更保守的槓桿目標?關於長期資本支出節奏,您有什麼最新進展嗎?
Francois Poirier - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Francois Poirier - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Hi, Praneeth, it's Francois. I'll take this one. Our goal is that 12 months from now we've essentially filled up, the project backlog at the $6 billion level through 2030 inclusively. I think the opportunities that we have will give us the opportunity at that point to consider going above that $6 billion level.
你好,普拉尼特,我是法蘭索瓦。我選這個。我們的目標是,從現在起 12 個月後,到 2030 年,我們的專案積壓總額將達到 60 億美元。我認為,屆時我們所擁有的機會將使我們有機會考慮將規模擴大到 60 億美元以上。
A couple of really important criteria which we are not going to lose sight of, however. First one is human capital. It's the most important consideration. We've made the progress we've made because we've executed our projects with excellence.
然而,有幾個非常重要的標準我們絕對不會忽略。首先是人力資本。這是最重要的考慮因素。我們之所以取得今天的成就,是因為我們出色地執行了我們的專案。
So I'm wanting to make sure that, if and when we consider going above 6, we can continue to execute, with the performance that we've demonstrated over the last two or three years. Second is the [4.75] is going to continue to be a targeted cap for us irrespective of the size of our capital program, so we could make excellent progress on efficiencies, on technological innovation and commercial innovation that could allow us to go above six without looking to rotate capital or any other sources of funds.
所以我想確保,如果我們考慮將目標定在 6 以上,我們能夠繼續保持過去兩三年所展現的表現。其次,[4.75] 將繼續是我們設定的目標上限,無論我們的資本計劃規模如何,因此我們可以在效率、技術創新和商業創新方面取得卓越的進展,從而使我們能夠在不尋求資本輪動或任何其他資金來源的情況下超過 6。
I would say though, as I said before, the opportunity set will absolutely allow us to go there, but I would say it's within those two [caveats], and then when you look at the lead time for projects, realistically that's probably 2028 or 2029 before we could go there just with the time it takes to develop projects and then the time it takes to get them permitted.
不過,正如我之前所說,機會絕對允許我們去那裡,但我認為這要受到這兩個限制條件的限制。而且,考慮到專案的提前期,實際上,考慮到專案開發所需的時間和獲得許可所需的時間,我們可能要到 2028 年或 2029 年才能去那裡。
Praneeth Satish - Analyst
Praneeth Satish - Analyst
Very helpful. Thank you.
很有幫助。謝謝。
Francois Poirier - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Francois Poirier - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Welcome.
歡迎。
Operator
Operator
Robert Hope, Scotiabank.
羅伯特‧霍普,加拿大豐業銀行。
Robert Hope - Analyst
Robert Hope - Analyst
Morning everyone. Maybe to follow-up on your commentary that the projects are becoming larger and more complex, can you maybe add a little bit more color on, what size of projects that you are now seeing and why they're more complex, and are you more willing to go for larger projects given the increasingly more favorable regulatory outlook in the US?
大家早安。鑑於您之前提到專案規模越來越大、越來越複雜,您能否再詳細說說您現在看到的專案規模有多大,以及為什麼它們變得更加複雜?鑑於美國監管前景越來越有利,您是否更願意選擇規模更大的項目?
Tina Faraca - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer - Natural Gas Pipelines
Tina Faraca - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer - Natural Gas Pipelines
Thanks, Rob. This is Tina. We are really encouraged by the development pipeline that we have, primarily related to the growth in the power generation sector. Along our entire footprint, we see opportunities in scale of volumes that could be anywhere from just a half a bcf all the way up to more than a bcf depending on the type of project we're pursuing.
謝謝你,羅伯。這是蒂娜。我們對我們的發展規劃感到非常鼓舞,主要與發電行業的成長有關。在我們整個業務範圍內,我們看到了規模上的機會,根據我們正在進行的專案類型,規模可能從 0.5 億立方英尺到超過 10 億立方英尺不等。
The value of our footprint is such that it allows us to capture all of these opportunities whether they're on a smaller scale or the larger scale. The hyper scalers that we're working with behind the utilities, do take more time just because of the supply chain constraints, but certainly we continue to see those opportunities progress and we'll pursue those, as we see them advance. So the larger ones are taking a little bit more time, but we're able to capture some of the more single, doubles, triples along the way.
我們的業務規模優勢在於,無論規模大小,我們都能抓住所有這些機會。我們與公用事業背後的超大規模企業合作,由於供應鏈的限制,確實需要更多時間,但我們當然會繼續看到這些機會取得進展,並且我們會隨著這些機會的推進而繼續追求它們。所以,較大的星雲需要花費更多的時間,但我們在過程中能夠捕捉到一些單星雲、雙星雲和三星雲。
Francois Poirier - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Francois Poirier - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, and I'll add a little bit to that, Rob. I appreciate the question. When we talk about increased size and complexity, we're not talking about SGP or CGO like multi-jurisdictional multi-billion dollar projects, these are still in corridor expansions, the average size of our projects, in our backlog right now is about $0.5 billion, you might see projects announced over the next year creep up around that [$1 billion] level or maybe still a little bit north of that. But they are still in corridor in with existing customers and very straightforward from a construction execution standpoint, so we don't view, despite the larger size, any execution complexity increase simply.
是的,羅布,我再補充一點。感謝您的提問。當我們談到規模和複雜性的增加時,我們指的不是像SGP或CGO那樣涉及多個司法管轄區的數十億美元項目,這些項目仍然處於走廊擴建階段,我們目前積壓項目的平均規模約為5億美元,你可能會看到明年宣布的項目規模逐漸接近10億美元,甚至可能略高於這個水平。但它們仍然與現有客戶保持著密切聯繫,從施工執行的角度來看也非常簡單直接,因此,儘管規模更大,我們並不認為執行複雜性會因此而增加。
We've had a number of projects this year that we -- six months ago we would have expected to have announced by now, but they're getting pushed out into next year because they're getting upsized. Demand is increasing so quickly that our utility customers are looking to increase the scope of our projects, and we just have to go back to the drawing board a little bit.
今年我們有很多項目,六個月前我們以為現在應該已經宣布了,但由於規模擴大,這些項目都被推遲到明年了。需求成長如此之快,以至於我們的公用事業客戶希望擴大我們專案的規模,我們不得不稍微重新規劃。
Robert Hope - Analyst
Robert Hope - Analyst
Appreciate that color. And then maybe continuing on the theme of the project backlog so you have [17 billion] of projects in the backlog, six are in advanced development. How do you expect that kind of overall size to progress over the next year as you're seeing increasing demand for your system, are you seeing projects? Are you having to turn away projects just given the organizational requirements, or could we see that backlog, expand a little bit further over the next, we'll call it, 12 to 24 months?
欣賞這種顏色。然後,也許可以繼續討論專案積壓問題,假設你有 170 億個專案積壓在專案中,其中 6 個專案處於高階開發階段。隨著對貴公司係統需求的不斷增長,您預計未來一年整體規模將如何發展?您是否看到了相關項目?您是否因為組織方面的要求而不得不拒絕一些專案?或者我們能否看到積壓的項目在接下來的 12 到 24 個月內進一步增加?
Francois Poirier - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Francois Poirier - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, we have, just to be very clear, Rob, and thank you for the question because it gives me the opportunity to point out that we have not turned down a single project because of balance sheet or capital. We still have, even with our expectation of bringing in all of the pending projects to full sanctioning, we still have $3.5 billion of room under the $6 billion level and as we talked about with careful consideration of our human capital, we think we can go beyond that.
是的,羅布,為了說清楚,我們確實有這樣的項目。感謝你的提問,因為這讓我有機會指出,我們從未因為資產負債表或資金問題而拒絕任何項目。即使我們預計所有待審批項目都將獲得全面批准,我們仍然有 35 億美元的資金空間,低於 60 億美元的目標。正如我們仔細考慮人力資本後所討論的那樣,我們認為我們可以超越這個目標。
So, we're not capital constrained in that we're turning away projects. We simply want to make sure that we maintain our 4.75 level and that we're continuing to execute projects with excellence. So, the great thing, for example, if you look at our guidance for 2028 of $12.5 billion to $13.1 billion.
所以,我們並非因為資金不足而拒絕專案。我們只想確保保持 4.75 分的水平,並繼續出色地執行專案。例如,如果你看看我們對 2028 年的預測,即 125 億美元至 131 億美元,你會發現這很棒。
With EBITDA growing the way it is, it's natural that our backlog, and annual capital spend can grow along with it. So, as I said, the opportunity set it's definitely there for us to go there if we choose to, and based on the cadence of projects we expect to be announced regularly through 2026. I think, at this time next year we're going to be thinking long and hard about increasing that $6 billion level starting in maybe '28 or '29.
隨著 EBITDA 的持續成長,我們的積壓訂單和年度資本支出自然也會隨之成長。所以,正如我所說,如果我們選擇去那裡,機會肯定就在那裡,而且根據我們預計到 2026 年將定期宣布的專案節奏來看,情況也是如此。我認為,明年這個時候,我們將認真考慮從 2028 年或 2029 年開始將 60 億美元的水準提高到 60 億美元。
Robert Hope - Analyst
Robert Hope - Analyst
Appreciate the color. Thank you.
欣賞這種顏色。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Theresa Chen, Barclays.
特蕾莎·陳,巴克萊銀行。
Theresa Chen - Analyst
Theresa Chen - Analyst
Good morning. On the theme of gas to power for data centers, you've clearly chosen to stay focused on transmission, supporting your customers rather than competing with them in power generation, despite your deep expertise in that space. What drove this strategic decision and what are the key considerations behind it?
早安.關於資料中心天然氣發電這個主題,儘管您在發電領域擁有深厚的專業知識,但您顯然選擇專注於輸電,支持您的客戶,而不是與他們競爭發電。促成這項戰略決策的原因是什麼?背後有哪些關鍵考量?
Tina Faraca - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer - Natural Gas Pipelines
Tina Faraca - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer - Natural Gas Pipelines
Thanks, Teresa. This is Tina. I'll focus on the US because that's where we're seeing the majority of our data center growth right now, and the attractiveness and depth of our portfolio of data center projects primarily accessed through our interconnections with key utility customers provides us with a low-risk, compelling return approach to capturing that data center growth. We're actually not seeing, a big pool from customers to develop behind the media projects in the US.
謝謝你,特蕾莎。這是蒂娜。我將重點關注美國,因為我們目前的大部分資料中心成長都發生在那裡,而且我們透過與主要公用事業客戶的互聯互通,獲得了極具吸引力和深度的資料中心專案組合,這為我們提供了一種低風險、高回報的方式來抓住資料中心成長機會。實際上,我們並沒有看到來自美國客戶的大量資金來支持媒體項目的發展。
And in instances where we have seen those requested, there have been limiting factors including contract term or requirements for procure long lead time items or just inconsistent with our risk preferences, and we have a deep pipeline now of those opportunities with our long standing relationships with our key utility customers.
在某些情況下,我們看到有人提出過這樣的要求,但都存在一些限制因素,例如合約期限、採購交貨週期長的物品的要求,或者與我們的風險偏好不符。而現在,憑藉我們與主要公用事業客戶的長期合作關係,我們有很多這樣的機會。
Additionally, when we're working with those utility customers, we're not just solving the needs for their data center growth, it's all of the other electrification needs that they have, whether it's coal to gas conversion or economic development.
此外,當我們與這些公用事業客戶合作時,我們不僅要滿足他們資料中心成長的需求,還要滿足他們所有其他的電氣化需求,無論是煤炭改氣還是經濟發展。
Theresa Chen - Analyst
Theresa Chen - Analyst
Got it. And in regards to Bruce C, can you walk us through the current status on the path to FID, the next key milestones, how you plan to manage cost and execution risk if the project proceeds, and on the heels of Greg's comments related to the technological advancements and the use of robotics for the NCR program. It seems that you're uncovering additional efficiencies and innovative solutions in general here. But what are the key lessons from the NCR process that you will be applying to Bruce C FID?
知道了。關於 Bruce C,您能否為我們介紹一下目前距離最終投資決定 (FID) 的進展情況、下一個關鍵里程碑、如果專案繼續進行,您計劃如何管理成本和執行風險,以及在 Greg 就 NCR 專案的技術進步和機器人技術應用發表評論之後,您有何看法?看來你在這裡總是能發現更多提高效率的方法和創新的解決方案。但是,您將從 NCR 流程中學到哪些關鍵經驗並應用到 Bruce C FID 中呢?
Greg Grant - Executive Vice-President and President, Power & Energy Solutions
Greg Grant - Executive Vice-President and President, Power & Energy Solutions
Sure, thanks, Theresa. I appreciate the question. It's Greg. We do con continue to progress Bruce C, we would actually just received the notice of commencement from the IAAC here in August. As we talked about in the last quarter, it's still a lot of work to do when you think about moving towards FID in the early 2030s.
好的,謝謝你,特蕾莎。感謝您的提問。是格雷格。Bruce C,我們確實在繼續推進,實際上我們八月才收到IAAC的開學通知。正如我們在上個季度討論的那樣,考慮到要到 2030 年代初實現最終投資決策 (FID),還有很多工作要做。
But what the next step for us is we're actually working, with the ISO in our next tranche of funding. As a reminder, we're currently using federal funding through (inaudible) and the next tranche will help provide us the funding as we move towards FID, towards the end of the decade. It nice of you to point out the [slide 8 or 19] I think there's many innovations that Bruce had been using both operationally and through the MCR program with the robotics that I talked about earlier.
但對我們來說,下一步實際上是我們正在與 ISO 合作,這是我們下一批資金的用途。提醒一下,我們目前正在使用聯邦資金(聽不清楚),下一批資金將幫助我們在十年末實現最終投資目標的過程中獲得資金。感謝您指出[投影片 8 或 19]。我認為 Bruce 在營運和 MCR 專案中運用了許多創新技術,包括我之前提到的機器人技術。
You'll see successive efficiencies being taken through all those lessons learned when you think about this is an almost a decade-long plan and the reason that we actually put robotics and other things in as we progressed through unit three was to be able to continue that over through all the success of MCR programs, so the team have been doing a great job on time and on budget, and what you'll continue to see is that time shrinking in terms of how long it's taken us to do the MCR program and get these units back online.
你會發現,從所有這些經驗教訓中學到教訓,效率會不斷提高。想想看,這是一個近十年的計劃,而我們在第三單元引入機器人和其他技術,是為了能夠在MCR專案的所有成功中延續下去。因此,團隊在時間和預算方面都做得非常出色,你將繼續看到,我們完成MCR專案並讓這些單元重新上線所需的時間正在不斷縮短。
Theresa Chen - Analyst
Theresa Chen - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Aaron MacNeil, TD Cowen.
Aaron MacNeil,TD Cowen。
Aaron MacNeil - Analyst
Aaron MacNeil - Analyst
Hey, morning all. Thanks for taking my questions. The negotiated settlement on the Canadian Main Line expires in 2026. You mentioned several rate cases over the next several years. So I guess just very simply, have toll increases or rate cases been contemplated in the 2028 guide, or could we think about that as potential upside very much like we saw with Colombia earlier this year?
大家早安。謝謝您回答我的問題。加拿大主幹線鐵路的談判協議將於 2026 年到期。您提到了未來幾年將發生的幾起費率案件。所以我想簡單來說,2028 年的指南中是否考慮過提高通行費或費率?或者我們可以將其視為潛在的利多因素,就像我們今年早些時候在哥倫比亞看到的那樣?
Tina Faraca - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer - Natural Gas Pipelines
Tina Faraca - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer - Natural Gas Pipelines
Yeah, thanks for the question, Aaron. We do have several rate cases in flight. As you're familiar, we have the A&R, the Great Lakes rape cases that we have just recently filed and are in settlement discussions. We had a successful settlement on the Columbia Gas System.
是的,謝謝你的提問,亞倫。我們目前有幾起案件正在審理中。如您所知,我們有 A&R 案件,以及我們最近提起的五大湖強暴案,目前正在進行和解談判。我們成功地就哥倫比亞天然氣系統問題達成了和解。
We have a cadence going forward on other US pipes, specific to Canada Gas. We have the mainline settlement which goes through the end of 2026. In our NGTL settlement that ends in the end of 2029. The projections for those rate cases or rate settlements include, conservative estimates in our budgeting and forecasting, and each, rate case is very different depending on the rate base, the capital investment, but you will see the proposed uplift on those rate cases already embedded into our forecast.
我們針對加拿大天然氣公司在其他美國管道項目上製定了後續的推進計畫。我們有一條主線結算協議,有效期至 2026 年底。我們與NGTL達成的協議將於2029年底到期。這些費率案件或費率結算的預測包括我們在預算和預測中做出的保守估計,而且每個費率案件都因費率基數和資本投資的不同而大相徑庭,但您會看到這些費率案件的擬議上調已經納入我們的預測中。
Aaron MacNeil - Analyst
Aaron MacNeil - Analyst
Okay, understood. And then, I wanted to dig in on the cost savings that you've realized on capital as we look to the future and just given the broader investment in energy infrastructure across North America. Are you starting to run into challenges or bottlenecks with contractors, or can you speak to any other pressure points that we should be aware of or risks that you're actively mitigating? And ultimately I guess I'm just wondering if this level of outperformance can be sustained.
好的,明白了。然後,我想深入探討一下,鑑於北美能源基礎設施的更廣泛投資,我們在展望未來時,在資本方面實現了哪些成本節約。您是否開始在與承包商的合作中遇到挑戰或瓶頸?或者您能否談談我們應該注意的其他壓力點或您正在積極緩解的風險?最後,我只是想知道這種優異表現能否持續下去。
Tina Faraca - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer - Natural Gas Pipelines
Tina Faraca - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer - Natural Gas Pipelines
Yeah, thanks. Market pressures haven't really had a material impact yet, but we do see industry backlogs building, and we're continuously monitoring our suppliers and our contractors. Francois earlier highlighted our human capital, and that's one of our also top considerations when we're sanctioning and executing projects. This applies also to our contractors and skilled labor workforces.
嗯,謝謝。市場壓力尚未產生實質影響,但我們確實看到產業積壓訂單不斷增加,我們正在持續監控我們的供應商和承包商。弗朗索瓦之前強調了我們的人力資本,這也是我們在批准和執行專案時最重要的考慮因素之一。這也適用於我們的承包商和技術工人。
We've been through these cycles before. We learn when it gets busy, it's increasingly important to retain top tier suppliers, contractors, crews, and we're able to attract some of those top suppliers and contractors in two ways.
我們以前也經歷過這樣的週期。我們了解到,當業務繁忙時,留住一流的供應商、承包商和工作人員就變得越來越重要,而我們可以透過兩種方式吸引一些一流的供應商和承包商。
One, through our long-term relationships and our contracting strategies that we deploy, and two, our portfolio. Our contractors like this long-term portfolio that we have, whether it's small, medium sizing, and [quarriter] projects. And all of our maintenance capital, we're able to develop long-term relationships with them for that long-term backlog.
第一,透過我們長期的合作關係和我們實施的合約策略;第二,透過我們的投資組合。我們的承包商喜歡我們擁有的這種長期專案組合,無論是小型、中型或大型專案。我們所有的維護資金,我們都能與他們建立長期的合作關係,以應對長期的積壓工作。
Francois Poirier - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Francois Poirier - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, and I'll add to that, Aaron, it's Francois, with respect to, outperforming plan going forward, remember that the risk of our portfolio is decreasing. If you look over the last two or three years, we had CGL and Southeast Gateway in there.
是的,我還要補充一點,亞倫,弗朗索瓦,關於未來績效優異的計劃,請記住我們投資組合的風險正在降低。回顧過去兩三年,我們發現 CGL 和 Southeast Gateway 都在其中。
The small to medium sized projects are much more straightforward to execute the predictability of cost estimates, is very high because we know the right of way, we know the terrain, the timelines are quite predictable. So, we do tend to take a more conservative approach in an inflationary environment to our costs. Projects we're putting into service now were sanctioned in 2022 and 2023.
中小型專案更容易執行,成本估算的可預測性非常高,因為我們知道路線,我們了解地形,時間表也相當可預測。因此,在通貨膨脹環境下,我們往往會對成本採取更保守的態度。我們現在投入使用的項目是在 2022 年和 2023 年獲得批准的。
Remember, we were in a much higher inflationary environment back then, but I'm optimistic that we can continue that execution excellence, with the recognition that we're in a generational time in terms of allowed rates of return or rates of returns on projects we sanction and to some extent we might be a little bit more aggressive in terms of our estimation simply because we want to be able to allocate more capital to growth.
請記住,當時的通膨環境要高得多,但我樂觀地認為,我們可以繼續保持卓越的執行力。同時我們也意識到,就允許的回報率或我們批准的專案的回報率而言,我們正處於一個具有劃時代意義的時期,在某種程度上,我們可能會在估算方面更加激進一些,因為我們希望能夠將更多的資本分配給成長。
Over the last few years as we've been deleveraging any outperformance on projects, the proceeds have gone to accelerating our deleveraging going forward, the balance sheet's in good shape right now, we're more focused on growth, so we're going to want to allocate more capital.
過去幾年,隨著我們逐步減少專案超額收益帶來的槓桿,所得收益用於加速未來的去槓桿化進程。目前資產負債表狀況良好,我們更注重成長,因此我們將需要分配更多資本。
There are some great examples that our team, our supply chain team have been working with some of our key suppliers on long-term contracts, things like turbine maintenance, things like, delivery of new equipment for new projects with the long backlog that Tina mentioned, we are a preferred customer that our contractors very much like to deal with.
我們的團隊,我們的供應鏈團隊,與一些主要供應商簽訂了長期合同,這方面有很多很好的例子,比如渦輪機維護,以及為新項目交付新設備(正如蒂娜提到的,積壓訂單很多),我們是承包商非常喜歡合作的首選客戶。
That means we get the A teams on our projects and project execution is always about people in our human capital and our team is very strong and we get the strongest teams from our contractors which leads to the results we've been getting and we hope to continue those.
這意味著我們的專案團隊都是頂尖的,專案執行始終離不開我們的人力資本,我們的團隊非常強大,我們從承包商那裡也擁有最優秀的團隊,這造就了我們所取得的成果,我們希望繼續保持這些成果。
Aaron MacNeil - Analyst
Aaron MacNeil - Analyst
Thanks for the detailed answers. I'll turn it back.
感謝您的詳細解答。我會把它轉回去。
Francois Poirier - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Francois Poirier - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Welcome.
歡迎。
Operator
Operator
Jeremy Tonet, JPMorgan.
Jeremy Tonet,摩根大通。
Sean O'Donnell - Executive Vice-President, Strategy and Corporate Development and Chief Financial Officer
Sean O'Donnell - Executive Vice-President, Strategy and Corporate Development and Chief Financial Officer
Hi, good morning.
您好,早安。
Francois Poirier - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Francois Poirier - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Good morning.
早安.
Jeremy Tonet - Analyst
Jeremy Tonet - Analyst
Just wanted to turn to slide 23 if I could and revisit that on the right hand side, piling up tailwinds and headwinds for the guide here, if I recall correctly, it seems like there's a lot more tailwinds than headwinds at this point. So just wondering, is it fair to think that is the balance when you're thinking about the guide period?
如果可以的話,我想翻到第 23 張投影片,再看看右邊的內容,那裡列出了順風和逆風的情況。如果我沒記錯的話,目前看來順風比逆風多得多。所以我想知道,在考慮指導期時,這樣認為是否合理?
Sean O'Donnell - Executive Vice-President, Strategy and Corporate Development and Chief Financial Officer
Sean O'Donnell - Executive Vice-President, Strategy and Corporate Development and Chief Financial Officer
Hey Jeremy, it's Sean. I'll take that question. Candidly, I think you're right. We are feeling more tailwinds than headwinds at the moment, whether that be the jurisdiction regulatory reforms that Francois mentioned, the customer kind of demand pull on our systems, like we're being asked to do more than we ever have been, and to Francois's point, we're able to drive kind of project IRRs up and we're able to drive rate case outcomes higher than we've ever seen before, so it is a bit of an imbalance towards the tailwinds for the first time in a long time.
嘿,傑里米,我是肖恩。我來回答這個問題。坦白說,我認為你是對的。目前我們感受到的順風多於逆風,無論是弗朗索瓦提到的司法管轄區監管改革,還是客戶對我們系統的需求拉動,都讓我們感覺比以往任何時候都更加忙碌。正如弗朗索瓦所說,我們能夠提高專案內部收益率,並且能夠將利率案件的結果推高到前所未有的水平,因此,這是很長一段時間以來第一次出現順風偏向順風的情況。
But the towards that outside of that '29 and '30, we've been asked a few times about why not five years guide. We just want to maintain a few another year to make sure that, that all these tailwinds remain durable through the end of the decade, but so far so good.
但是,除了 2029 年和 2030 年之外,我們曾多次被問到為什麼不發布五年指南。我們只是想再維持幾年,以確保所有這些利多因素都能持續到本十年末,但目前為止一切順利。
Jeremy Tonet - Analyst
Jeremy Tonet - Analyst
Got it. So that's helpful. So the three-year guide looks really conservative here given that backdrop. So that's helpful to understand. And then, just wanted to go to Mexico I guess there have been comments in the past with regards to potential for monetization there and just wondering any updated thoughts you might be able to provide there.
知道了。那很有幫助。有鑑於此背景,這份三年指導方針看起來確實非常保守。這樣理解很有幫助。然後,我本來就想去墨西哥。我想過去有人討論過那裡的潛在盈利機會,我想知道您對此是否有任何最新的想法。
Sean O'Donnell - Executive Vice-President, Strategy and Corporate Development and Chief Financial Officer
Sean O'Donnell - Executive Vice-President, Strategy and Corporate Development and Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, I'll take that one as well, Jeremy. No updated thoughts, but just let us recap kind of where we've been on that one. Look, 20 Mexico is a phenomenal business for us, right? Putting STP into service this year and kind of demonstrating the commercial viability of that CFE has a major campaign underway right with their $27 billion kind of power and transmission built out and given that a couple of quarters to continue to develop, so we're still committed to looking at alternatives in 2026.
是的,傑瑞米,我也要那個。沒有新的想法,但我們不妨回顧一下我們之前在這方面取得的進展。你看,20 Mexico 對我們來說是一項非常棒的業務,對吧?今年將 STP 投入使用,並以此證明其商業可行性。 CFE 正在進行一項重大計劃,投資 270 億美元建造電力和輸電設施,並計劃在接下來的幾個季度繼續發展,因此我們仍然致力於在 2026 年尋找替代方案。
We'll have USMCA some clarity there by, hopefully June or July. We'll have progress on the CFE side with connecting a number of different power plants that'll be served, primarily by SDP and other assets, and we'll look at capital market and partnership opportunities starting in 2026 and hopefully have an update by mid to fall of 2026.
希望到六、七月,美墨加協定(USMCA)的走向能更加明朗一些。在 CFE 方面,我們將取得進展,連接多個不同的發電廠,這些發電廠將主要由 SDP 和其他資產提供服務。我們將從 2026 年開始研究資本市場和合作機會,並希望在 2026 年中秋季之前有最新消息。
Jeremy Tonet - Analyst
Jeremy Tonet - Analyst
Got it. That's very helpful. I'll leave it there. Thanks.
知道了。那很有幫助。我就說到這兒吧。謝謝。
Francois Poirier - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Francois Poirier - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Welcome
歡迎
Operator
Operator
Maurice Choy, RBC.
Maurice Choy,RBC。
Maurice Choy - Analyst
Maurice Choy - Analyst
Thank you and good morning, everyone. I just want to come back to a comment earlier that Francois, you made about your ability to go above $6 billion without rotating capital. It doesn't sound like you need to, need this program, but from everything you shared today, you're also not short of opportunities. So, how do you see the company being more engaged on an active capital rotation program? Just from a financial discipline perspective, particularly for mature or de-risk projects.
謝謝大家,大家早安。我只想回到之前弗朗索瓦的評論,你提到你有能力在不輪動資本的情況下將資產規模擴大到 60 億美元以上。聽起來你似乎並不需要這個項目,但從你今天分享的一切來看,你也不缺少機會。那麼,您認為公司應該如何更積極地參與資本輪調計畫?僅從財務紀律的角度來看,特別是對於成熟或降低風險的專案而言。
Francois Poirier - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Francois Poirier - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks for the question, Maurice, and, it gives me an opportunity to maybe be a bit clearer based on my prior response. What I wanted to indicate is that, the first source of deleveraging is always. Growing your EBITDA.
謝謝你的提問,莫里斯,這讓我有機會根據我之前的回答,把話說得更清楚一些。我想指出的是,去槓桿化的首要來源始終是…提高您的 EBITDA。
And before we consider capital rotation or, any outside form of equity, we always look to improve the ROIC on our existing assets. So, through commercial innovations and increasingly interesting technological innovation, the use of AI, more specifically, we see an opportunity to accelerate EBITDA growth through optimization and efficiencies in our system and I would like to see those carried out and run through before we consider any outside capital or deleveraging. Obviously we hold share count dearly, our bias to the extent we need, if we, to the extent we want to grow our capital program above six, and we decide that we do need some, equity.
在考慮資本輪動或任何外部形式的股權投資之前,我們總是先考慮提高現有資產的投資報酬率。因此,透過商業創新和日益有趣的科技創新,更具體地說是人工智慧的應用,我們看到了一個透過優化和提高系統效率來加速 EBITDA 成長的機會,我希望在考慮任何外部資本或去槓桿化之前,看到這些創新得到實施和驗證。顯然,我們非常重視股份數量,我們的偏好程度取決於我們需要的程度,如果我們想要將資本計畫擴展到 6 以上,而我們決定確實需要一些股權。
The bias will always be the capital rotation first, but first, let's see what we can do with the EBITDA. We've had some really good successes here in, improving the efficiency of our systems, getting our OM&A down and getting the ROIC on our existing assets up, and that's what I meant by that comment.
資本輪動永遠是首要考慮因素,但首先,讓我們看看我們能對 EBITDA 做些什麼。我們在這裡取得了一些非常好的成功,提高了系統的效率,降低了營運管理成本,提高了現有資產的投資報酬率,這就是我那句話的意思。
Maurice Choy - Analyst
Maurice Choy - Analyst
That makes sense. And if I could just finish on the com question about returns, on a forward-looking basis, you mentioned that you are expecting 5 to 7 times, bill multiple, compared to the investigate last year. Have there been certain assets or project types that you're seeing evolving returns, or have they broadly been quite steady for the past 12 months?
這很有道理。最後,關於收益的問題,展望未來,您提到預計收益將是去年的 5 到 7 倍。您是否觀察到某些特定資產或項目類型的回報正在發生變化,還是說在過去 12 個月中,回報總體上相當穩定?
Sean O'Donnell - Executive Vice-President, Strategy and Corporate Development and Chief Financial Officer
Sean O'Donnell - Executive Vice-President, Strategy and Corporate Development and Chief Financial Officer
Hey Maurice, it's Sean. The answer is the latter. We have seen the 5 to 7 guidance from investigator last year to this year. We have executed right in the middle of that raid, so it is steady. The proof points are there, and they are why we're extending that guidance through '28 at this point.
嘿,莫里斯,我是肖恩。答案是後者。我們看到調查人員從去年到今年給了 5 到 7 的指導。我們正好在那次突襲行動中執行了任務,所以進展順利。證據確鑿,這也是我們目前將該指引延長至 2028 年的原因。
Francois Poirier - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Francois Poirier - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, and just to add to that, as we talked about our priorities for 2026. And our goal of filling out the slate of growth projects, at the $6 billion level through 2030, along with that is at a 5 to 7 times EBITDA build multiple, as you can imagine, our $17 billion BD pipeline, we have pretty good visibility on the returns of those projects, and so we think that that outcome is, very achievable. And the clear implication there is that we expect to build multiples to hold at the levels that you just referred to.
是的,補充一點,就像我們之前討論的2026年優先事項一樣。我們的目標是到 2030 年完成 60 億美元的成長項目,同時,這些項目的 EBITDA 倍數要達到 5 到 7 倍。正如您所想,我們擁有 170 億美元的 BD 項目儲備,我們對這些項目的回報有相當清晰的了解,因此我們認為這個目標是完全可以實現的。這清楚地表明,我們期望建立起能夠維持在你剛才提到的水平的估值倍數。
Maurice Choy - Analyst
Maurice Choy - Analyst
So just a quick follow-up. I think earlier it was mentioned, I believe by Tina that just, we've not seen a whole lot of cost pressures, but perhaps it may be some on the horizon if all the resources are directed towards data centers, for example, what you're saying is that even if costs globally goes up, your return should hold.
還有一個後續問題。我認為之前蒂娜提到過,我們還沒有看到太多的成本壓力,但如果所有資源都投入到資料中心,那麼未來可能會出現一些成本壓力。例如,你的意思是,即使全球成本上升,你的回報也應該保持不變。
Francois Poirier - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Francois Poirier - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, look, I think we compete with our peer company pipelines for projects, particularly in the US, my presumption is that if all competitors are impacted by the same inflationary environment, we're competing on a level playing field and those costs will be reflected in all of our bids, and we expect to be able to hold our returns, to deliver that 5 to 7 times EBITDA build multiple.
是的,你看,我認為我們在專案儲備方面與同行公司競爭,尤其是在美國。我的假設是,如果所有競爭對手都受到相同通膨環境的影響,那麼我們就是在公平的競爭環境中競爭,這些成本將反映在我們所有的投標中,我們預計能夠保持我們的回報,實現 5 到 7 倍 EBITDA 的建設倍數。
Maurice Choy - Analyst
Maurice Choy - Analyst
That's great. Thank you very much.
那太棒了。非常感謝。
Francois Poirier - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Francois Poirier - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Welcome.
歡迎。
Operator
Operator
Manav Gupta, UBS.
瑞銀集團的馬納夫·古普塔。
Manav Gupta - Analyst
Manav Gupta - Analyst
Thank you so much. You recently got an upgrade from S&P. They finally moved you to stable outlook versus negative. I know you had been working with them. Help us understand what that process was and finally what pushed them to acknowledge that the outlook is actually stable and not negative?
太感謝了。你最近獲得了標普的評級上調。他們最終將你的情緒從消極轉向了穩定。我知道你曾與他們共事。請幫助我們理解這個過程是什麼,以及最終是什麼促使他們承認前景實際上是穩定的而不是悲觀的?
Sean O'Donnell - Executive Vice-President, Strategy and Corporate Development and Chief Financial Officer
Sean O'Donnell - Executive Vice-President, Strategy and Corporate Development and Chief Financial Officer
Hey man, Sean, I'll take that one. Look, without speaking to any particular agency, we've simply delivered on the plan that we introduced at Investor Day last year, right? Obviously getting SGP done on time and on service and living within our $6 billion to $7 billion capital range.
嘿,肖恩,我來演這個。你看,我們並沒有與任何特定機構交談,只是落實了去年投資者日上提出的計劃,對吧?顯然,我們的目標是按時按質完成SGP項目,並控制在60億至70億美元的資本範圍內。
Those were commitments that we made to the market and to be fair, the agencies were, held us accountable and wanted to see a couple of quarters of performance under that new strategy, so. We've delivered, and better, so yeah, we're grateful for recognition of that, but it was always kind of part of our plan and expectation to get to this point.
這些都是我們對市場的承諾,公平地說,各機構也要求我們承擔責任,並希望看到我們在新策略下幾個季度的表現。我們已經做到了,而且做得更好,所以,是的,我們很感激大家的認可,但這始終是我們計劃和預期的一部分,目的是達到這一步。
Manav Gupta - Analyst
Manav Gupta - Analyst
Perfect. A number of the questions we are getting from investors is when you look at 2026, your guide is 6% to 8%, and people feel it's slightly conservative. Help us understand what can get us closer to 8% versus the 6%. If you could talk a little bit about that?
完美的。我們從投資人收到的一些問題是,展望 2026 年,你們的指導目標為 6% 至 8%,人們覺得這個目標略顯保守。請幫助我們了解,什麼因素能讓我們更接近 8% 而不是 6%。能稍微談談這方面嗎?
Sean O'Donnell - Executive Vice-President, Strategy and Corporate Development and Chief Financial Officer
Sean O'Donnell - Executive Vice-President, Strategy and Corporate Development and Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, happy to take that one again I was Sean. Look, we have We have a little over $8 billion going into service kind of driving that, so these are new assets, and as it relates to the optionality that we have with all of our assets, right? Customer driven events, weather driven events, outperformance, it's, we need a little bit of time with our new assets in particular, but we are seeing -- we're seeing new counterparties come across all of our systems with really kind of commercially innovative strategies to express hedging across molecules to electrons.
是的,我很樂意再次接受這個挑戰,我是肖恩。你看,我們有略超過 80 億美元的資金投入使用,這在一定程度上推動了這一進程,所以這些都是新資產,而且與我們所有資產的選擇權有關,對吧?客戶驅動的事件、天氣驅動的事件、超額收益,我們需要一些時間來熟悉我們的新資產,但我們看到——我們看到新的交易對手透過各種商業創新策略進入我們所有的系統,以對沖從分子到電子的風險。
So with these new assets in particular we're, we'll be conservative in how much more we can do from a new customer standpoint, but we look forward to having all the new inventory kind of up and running here by the end of the year.
因此,對於這些新資產,我們將在從新客戶角度出發所能做的更多事情上保持保守態度,但我們期待所有新庫存都能在年底前投入營運。
Manav Gupta - Analyst
Manav Gupta - Analyst
Thank you so much.
太感謝了。
Operator
Operator
Olivia Halferty, Goldman Sachs.
奧利維亞·哈爾弗蒂,高盛集團。
Olivia Halferty - Analyst
Olivia Halferty - Analyst
Hey, good morning team, thanks for the time. I wanted to go back to some of the comments which were made on improving IRRs across the footprint. Could you talk about specific drivers of the improved project returns we're seeing, versus earlier this decade and specifically, are there insights you can share on customer willingness to sign up for rates underpinning these improved project returns and on the other hand, any balancing factors from project competition in regions where TC operates?
嘿,各位早安,感謝你們抽出時間。我想回顧一下之前關於提高整個業務範圍內的內部收益率的一些評論。能否談談我們所看到的項目回報提高的具體驅動因素,與本世紀初相比?特別是,您能否分享一些關於客戶願意接受這些費率以支撐項目回報提高的見解?另一方面,TC 營運所在地區的專案競爭是否有任何平衡因素?
Tina Faraca - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer - Natural Gas Pipelines
Tina Faraca - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer - Natural Gas Pipelines
Hi Olivia, this is Tina. I'll take that question. There are various factors that are driving our higher returns and our strong build multiples. One is our project execution capabilities. We've really advanced our skill set, our governance, our the way we advance our projects on early development.
你好奧莉維亞,我是蒂娜。我來回答這個問題。多種因素推動了我們更高的回報和強勁的估值倍數。一是我們的專案執行能力。我們在技能、管理以及早期專案開發推進方式方面都取得了長足進步。
And so, I feel like our project development and, execution experiences, has really, driven us a long way in executing on time and under budget at returns that are continuing to increase. Second is the capacity in the market on the pipeline side continues to be, more and more utilized. And so as we're working with our customers, the optionality in our systems requires expanding.
因此,我覺得我們的專案開發和執行經驗確實推動我們按時按預算完成項目,而且收益還在不斷增長。其次,管線運輸市場的產能正持續充分利用。因此,在與客戶合作的過程中,我們系統的可選性需要不斷擴展。
And as we're working with them, they are highly valuing that new capacity as well as the security of supply. So we're able to negotiate in some cases, returns that are providing us stronger options there. In addition, just the amount of growth across North America is really providing a big landscape for us to be able to select projects that have the highest return and strong build multiples. That's really the value of our footprint. Our footprints, a strategic advantage for us to find those low-risk, high return opportunities, that we can filter into our $6 billion to $7 billion capital.
在我們與他們合作的過程中,他們高度重視新增產能以及供應安全。因此,在某些情況下,我們能夠協商獲得更好的回報,從而為我們提供更強大的選擇。此外,北美地區的成長規模確實為我們提供了一個廣闊的空間,讓我們能夠選擇那些回報率最高、建設倍數最高的項目。這才是我們足跡的真正價值。我們的足跡為我們提供了戰略優勢,使我們能夠找到那些低風險、高回報的機會,並將這些機會納入我們 60 億至 70 億美元的資本中。
Olivia Halferty - Analyst
Olivia Halferty - Analyst
Got it. That's clear. Thank you. And for my second question, I wanted to ask a follow-up on one of Praneeth's questions, specifically on the leverage build and, annual CapEx outlay. How much cushion specifically would you like to build under the 4.75 target on a run rate basis before we could see annual CapEx trend towards the higher end of the range, and then maybe this is a clarifying question as well. I'll tag on, but is TC contemplating moving towards the higher end of the $6 billion to $7 billion range or eventually moving above the upper end of the range over time?
知道了。這一點很清楚。謝謝。我的第二個問題是,我想就 Praneeth 的一個問題提出後續問題,具體來說,是關於槓桿率的建立和年度資本支出。在年度資本支出趨向區間高端之前,您希望在 4.75 的目標值下方,以運行率計算,具體需要多少緩衝空間?或許這也是一個需要澄清的問題。我來補充一下,TC 是否考慮將估值提高到 60 億至 70 億美元區間的上限,或者隨著時間的推移最終超過該區間的上限?
Sean O'Donnell - Executive Vice-President, Strategy and Corporate Development and Chief Financial Officer
Sean O'Donnell - Executive Vice-President, Strategy and Corporate Development and Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, Olivia, Sean, I'll take the first part of that question. Look, as it relates to having a specific target below 4.75, our objective is really capital efficiency, and as Francois mentioned, our per-share metrics at 4.75 or below are really how we kind of triangulate balance of total shareholder return. So, and we are, being below $6 billion here for the next kind of couple of years, we are giving the balance sheet time to breeze.
好的,奧利維亞,肖恩,我來回答這個問題的第一部分。你看,就設定低於 4.75 的具體目標而言,我們的目標實際上是資本效率,正如弗朗索瓦所提到的,我們每股指標在 4.75 或以下,實際上是我們如何平衡股東總回報的。所以,在接下來的幾年裡,我們的資產負債表將低於 60 億美元,這給了資產負債表喘息的機會。
We could have gone to $6 billion, but we have chosen not to. We're not chasing projects in favor of giving lower return projects in favor of giving the balance sheet time to bree. That's a critical takeaway, as it relates going from $6 billion to $7 billion or $7 billion to $8 billion.
我們本來可以投入60億美元,但我們選擇不這麼做。我們不會為了追求高報酬項目而盲目推進,而是選擇回報較低的項目,讓資產負債表有時間喘口氣。這是一個關鍵的結論,因為它關係到從 60 億美元到 70 億美元,或從 70 億美元到 80 億美元。
If the project returns are there and it works within our, that $12.5 billion, that glide path up that we're seeing, if that continues to be true and our teams can deliver on time and on budget and it works at 4.75 or lower, those are the ingredients for both growth and continued preservation of balance sheet strength.
如果專案回報到位,並且符合我們125億美元的目標,符合我們所看到的成長路徑,如果這種情況持續下去,我們的團隊能夠按時按預算交付,並且利率在4.75或更低,那麼這些就是增長和持續保持資產負債表穩健的要素。
Olivia Halferty - Analyst
Olivia Halferty - Analyst
That's clear. Appreciate the time. Thank you.
這一點很清楚。感謝您抽出時間。謝謝。
Sean O'Donnell - Executive Vice-President, Strategy and Corporate Development and Chief Financial Officer
Sean O'Donnell - Executive Vice-President, Strategy and Corporate Development and Chief Financial Officer
Great question. Thank you.
問得好。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Robert Catellier, CIBC.
Robert Catellier,加拿大帝國商業銀行。
Robert Catellier - Analyst
Robert Catellier - Analyst
Hi, good morning, Rob Catellier from CIBC. First of all, congratulations on your ongoing safety record. I just wanted to follow-up a little bit with, Tina, just on the project execution we've seen recently, you give a whole host of, reasons and how you got there, but I wondered if you could maybe highlight the one or top 2 reasons why you're, the projects are coming in on time and, on budget recently?
您好,早安,我是加拿大帝國商業銀行的羅伯卡特利爾。首先,恭喜您一直保持著良好的安全記錄。蒂娜,我想就我們最近看到的項目執行情況再跟你確認一下。你給了很多原因以及你是如何做到的,但我想知道你是否可以重點介紹一下最近的專案能夠按時按預算完成的一個或兩個最重要的原因?
Tina Faraca - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer - Natural Gas Pipelines
Tina Faraca - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer - Natural Gas Pipelines
Thanks for the question, Rob. I love to talk about our project execution teams, because they have been delivering time and time again. Our human capital there is really the number one driver in my opinion of why we're executing on time and on budget.
謝謝你的提問,羅布。我非常樂意談論我們的專案執行團隊,因為他們一次又一次地出色完成了任務。在我看來,我們的人力資本才是我們能夠按時按預算完成任務的首要驅動力。
We've really advanced our internal leadership execution skills, more due diligence on risk. We are engaging our stakeholders much earlier in the process, in the development cycle. We are negotiating strong contractors with our third-party constructors to provide the A teams. All of that allows us to execute on time and on budget and drive that, increasing returns on our invested capital.
我們確實提高了內部領導執行能力,並對風險進行了更深入的盡職調查。我們在開發週期的早期階段就讓利害關係人參與其中。我們正在與第三方施工方協商,聘請實力雄厚的承包商來提供一流的施工團隊。所有這些都使我們能夠按時按預算完成任務,並推動專案進展,從而提高投資回報率。
Francois Poirier - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Francois Poirier - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
And just to add to that, Rob, I really appreciate the question. We don't talk about culture enough, on these types of calls and, having a one team approach to project execution, creating a psychologically safe environment where our teams feel comfortable identifying challenges early on so that we can manage them and manage risk is critical to high-quality execution on projects. So we've worked really hard on creating a strong culture with strong psychological safety, and it's definitely benefited us.
另外,羅布,我非常感謝你的提問。我們很少在這類電話會議上談論文化,而採用團隊協作的方式執行項目,創造一個心理安全的環境,讓我們的團隊能夠安心地及早發現挑戰,以便我們能夠管理這些挑戰並控制風險,對於高品質地執行專案至關重要。因此,我們非常努力地營造了強大的企業文化和良好的心理安全感,這無疑對我們大有裨益。
Robert Catellier - Analyst
Robert Catellier - Analyst
Yeah, it sounds like you've put in a really sustainable framework there that should benefit you for years to come. My second question was for Greg Grant on the power side. On slide 18, there's a comment in the in the midterm bucket about exploring complementary services and high demand power and energy solution markets.
是的,聽起來你已經建立了一個非常永續的框架,這將使你在未來幾年受益匪淺。我的第二個問題是關於電力方面的,問的是格雷格·格蘭特。在第 18 張投影片中,中期報告部分提到要探討互補服務和高需求電力和能源解決方案市場。
I wondered if you could give us a flavor of what you think the highest likelihood opportunities are there in your opinion. As we stand here today and whether or not you're contemplating any behind the meter power in that bucket?
我想請您簡單介紹一下,您認為最有可能實現的機會有哪些。就我們今天所處的位置而言,你是否正在考慮在這個桶子裡安裝任何表後電力?
Greg Grant - Executive Vice-President and President, Power & Energy Solutions
Greg Grant - Executive Vice-President and President, Power & Energy Solutions
Sure, yeah, thanks, Robert. Happy to talk a bit about that. We, we've talked about areas where we do have some of the complementary gas and power solutions. Obviously we would have to be quite strategic, with our footprint on both the gas and power side. We've talked about we're not just trying to build out the power business on its own.
當然,謝謝你,羅伯特。很樂意談談這個話題。我們已經討論過一些領域,在這些領域我們擁有一些互補的天然氣和電力解決方案。顯然,我們在天然氣和電力領域的佈局都需要非常具有策略性。我們已經說過,我們不僅僅是試圖獨自發展電力業務。
Certainly Alberta has been the one area that I've talked about in the past, just given we have, that energy supply chain footprint whether it goes from the gas storage all the way to the end of power, so that's a natural area where we would be looking to potentially look to co-location and or power solution.
當然,阿爾伯塔省一直是我過去經常談到的地區,因為我們擁有完整的能源供應鏈,從天然氣儲存一直到最終的電力供應,所以這自然是我們考慮進行聯合託管或電力解決方案的自然領域。
The one thing I just want to highlight, and I think Tina highlighted it earlier, we have a great pipeline of growth and so we're going to be very selective. Some of the projects that we have seen are, probably taking on a bit more risk than we would like to, especially given the footprint in the pipeline that we have. But certainly in Alberta when you see over 20 gigawatt que on the data center front, whether we're developing it or we see other developers come in and build out some more demand, that's great for our existing footprint on the gas and power side.
我只想強調一點,而且我認為蒂娜之前也強調過,我們有很多成長機會,所以我們會非常謹慎地進行篩選。我們看到的一些項目可能承擔了比我們希望的更大的風險,特別是考慮到我們目前正在建造的項目規模。但可以肯定的是,在阿爾伯塔省,當資料中心方面出現超過 20 吉瓦的排隊需求時,無論是我們自己開發,還是其他開發商進入市場並增加需求,這對我們在天然氣和電力方面的現有業務來說都是好事。
Robert Catellier - Analyst
Robert Catellier - Analyst
Yeah, that makes sense. Thanks so much.
嗯,有道理。非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Sam Burwell, Jefferies.
Sam Burwell,傑富瑞集團。
Sam Burwell - Equity Analyst
Sam Burwell - Equity Analyst
Hey, good morning guys. Given the LNG buildout on the Gulf Coast, it seems like there's at least some opportunity to send more Canadian gas south. So are possible brownfield expansions on your system something that might make sense for you to pursue? And if so, how would those projects rank within your opportunity set?
嘿,各位早安。鑑於墨西哥灣沿岸液化天然氣計畫的建設,似乎至少有一些機會將更多的加拿大天然氣輸送到南方。那麼,對您而言,對現有系統進行擴建是否是值得考慮的合理選擇?如果是這樣,這些項目在您的機會集中排名如何?
Tina Faraca - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer - Natural Gas Pipelines
Tina Faraca - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer - Natural Gas Pipelines
Yeah, thanks for the question, SAM. This is Tina. Yeah, LNG opportunities are, continuing to evolve. It is a large market, as from a demand perspective. If you think about it, across our portfolio, we've placed 8 LNG projects into service over the last few years, primarily related to, Gulf Coast projects. Recently, you're familiar, we have built our coastal Gas Link project to the west coast, and we think there's great opportunities to continue to provide egress out of the WCSB to the West Coast for LNG exports, there.
是的,謝謝你的提問,SAM。這是蒂娜。是的,液化天然氣領域的機會正在不斷發展。從需求角度來看,這是一個很大的市場。仔細想想,在過去的幾年裡,我們整個投資組合中已經投入了 8 個液化天然氣項目,主要與墨西哥灣沿岸項目有關。如您所知,我們最近建成了通往西海岸的沿海天然氣管道項目,我們認為,繼續為西海岸盆地的液化天然氣出口提供通往西海岸的通道,具有巨大的發展潛力。
As you think about coming down into the US, we certainly have a corridor there through our A&R pipeline system and other systems where we have had some expansions in the past to bring gas from Western Canada down to the Gulf Coast, and we'll continue to evaluate those as necessary.
如果您考慮進入美國市場,我們當然可以透過我們的 A&R 管道系統和其他系統開闢一條通道,過去我們也曾對這些系統進行過一些擴建,將加拿大西部的天然氣輸送到墨西哥灣沿岸,我們將繼續根據需要對這些系統進行評估。
There are about 10 more LNG projects proposed along the Gulf Coast, that we'll be looking for additional supply, but again, I think the west coast of Canada and building that out is going to be an incredible opportunity for us, to move that gas west.
墨西哥灣沿岸還有大約 10 個液化天然氣項目正在籌建中,我們將尋求額外的供應,但我認為,加拿大西海岸的開發對我們來說將是一個絕佳的機會,可以將天然氣輸送到西部。
Sam Burwell - Equity Analyst
Sam Burwell - Equity Analyst
Okay, understood. So I guess on that point, I mean, any updates you can share on coastal gas leak expansion?
好的,明白了。所以我想問的是,關於沿海天然氣外洩範圍擴大,您有什麼最新進展可以分享嗎?
Tina Faraca - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer - Natural Gas Pipelines
Tina Faraca - Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer - Natural Gas Pipelines
Sure, you're, we're excited to have coastal gas link in service and flowing gas. Train 1 and train 2 are now moving forward. We are working really closely with LNG Canada right now to evaluate the Phase II, and we're supporting them in the developments related to what would be necessary on the pipeline. So the FID does rest with them, but we're, we are working jointly to evaluate what would be necessary to expand coastal to get to the Phase II.
當然,我們很高興沿海天然氣管道投入使用並輸送天然氣。1號列車和2號列車現在正在向前行駛。我們目前正與加拿大液化天然氣公司密切合作,評估第二期工程,並支持他們進行與管道建設相關的必要開發工作。因此,最終投資決定權在於他們,但我們正在共同努力評估擴大沿海地區規模以進入第二階段所需的條件。
Francois Poirier - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Francois Poirier - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
And recall, SAM, that LNG Canada Phase II is part of the projects in the national interest that the federal government's identified. So, from a permitting standpoint, I think that that process is well underway with the major projects office, and really the decision now rests with the proponent for the LNG facility.
SAM,請記住,加拿大液化天然氣二期計畫是聯邦政府確定的國家利益項目之一。因此,從許可的角度來看,我認為重大專案辦公室的審批流程進展順利,現在的決定權實際上掌握在液化天然氣設施的倡導者手中。
Sam Burwell - Equity Analyst
Sam Burwell - Equity Analyst
Okay, great. Thank you guys.
好的,太好了。謝謝大家。
Operator
Operator
Ben Pham, BMO.
Ben Pham,BMO。
Ben Pham - Analyst
Ben Pham - Analyst
Hi, thanks, good morning, and I appreciate the update. A couple of maintenance questions for me on the 5% to 7% EBITDA growth guidance. So there's a couple of questions earlier on this topic. But I'm wondering, could you provide the building blocks on that CAGR, that 5%, like what amounts growth, what is rate cases, what is the efficiencies, and then what takes you to the 6% and to the 7% or beyond?
您好,謝謝,早安,謝謝您的更新。關於 5% 至 7% 的 EBITDA 成長預期,我有幾個維護方面的問題。之前有人問過關於這個話題的一些問題。但我很想知道,您能否提供一下實現 5% 複合年增長率的要素,例如增長額、利率案例、效率提升等,以及是什麼因素使增長率達到 6%、7% 甚至更高?
Sean O'Donnell - Executive Vice-President, Strategy and Corporate Development and Chief Financial Officer
Sean O'Donnell - Executive Vice-President, Strategy and Corporate Development and Chief Financial Officer
Hey Ben, it's Sean. Thanks for the question. Look, we may do a better job on that kind of offline, but just to give you a sense for it. There's another big chunk of that with capital coming into service kind of over the next two years, right?
嘿,本,我是肖恩。謝謝你的提問。你看,我們或許能在那種線下活動中做得更好,但只是為了讓你有個概念。還有很大一部分資金將在未來兩年內投入使用,對吧?
That's always our baseline capital kind of coming into service. We could have up to 0.5 dozen rate cases kind of in flight, during this plan. So that's a -- that's probably the biggest driver of the range and what has to be true over the course of the next kind of couple of years and then, the smaller kind of bucket, but things that we've had real kind of demonstrable experience and results from asset availability, commercial and technology.
這始終是我們投入使用的基本資本。在該計劃實施期間,我們可能會有多達 0.5 打的病例處於飛行中。所以,這可能是影響範圍的最大驅動因素,也是未來幾年內必須維持的趨勢。然後,還有一些較小的因素,但我們從資產可用性、商業和技術方面獲得了真正可證明的經驗和結果。
Those it's a small but kind of growing kind of influence on the growth and you heard you heard both Tina and Greg kind of mention we've got active robotics, we've got AI, we've got preventative maintenance that are all showing early signs of kind of cash flow productivity and contribution. So those are really three big buckets, but happy to take that offline in more detail.
這些雖然規模不大,但對成長的影響卻不斷擴大。你也聽到了,蒂娜和格雷格都提到,我們有主動式機器人、人工智慧和預防性維護,這些都已初步顯示出現金流生產力和貢獻。所以這其實就是三大類問題,但我很樂意私下更詳細地討論。
Ben Pham - Analyst
Ben Pham - Analyst
Okay, that's great. Thank, Sean. And maybe the other maintenance question I had is, on the dividend growth side. Are you still expecting the ranges you've highlighted in the past (inaudible)
好的,太好了。謝謝你,肖恩。我可能還有另一個維修方面的問題,那就是股息成長方面。你仍然期待過去曾經強調過的那些範圍嗎?(聽不清楚)
Sean O'Donnell - Executive Vice-President, Strategy and Corporate Development and Chief Financial Officer
Sean O'Donnell - Executive Vice-President, Strategy and Corporate Development and Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. So just to be clear for all the listeners, our 3% to 5% range is consistent. We are just given the returns that we're seeing in our new projects, right, well above our cost of capital, we are going to direct as much capital as we can into new projects, which implies we will keep the dividend growth at the low end of that range for the foreseeable future. Because the projects just warrant as much growth at 12.5% or better, that's the highest and best use of capital we see across the entire system.
是的。為了讓所有聽眾都清楚,我們 3% 到 5% 的範圍是一致的。鑑於我們新項目的回報遠高於我們的資本成本,我們將盡可能多地把資金投入新項目,這意味著在可預見的未來,我們將把股息成長保持在較低水準。因為這些項目理應獲得 12.5% 或更高的成長,這是我們在整個系統中看到的資本利用的最高和最佳方式。
Ben Pham - Analyst
Ben Pham - Analyst
Okay, got it. Thank you.
好的,明白了。謝謝。
Francois Poirier - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Francois Poirier - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Welcome.
歡迎。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the question-and-answer session. If there are any further questions, please contact investorrelations@tcenergy. I will now turn the call over to Gavin Wylie for any closing remarks.
女士們、先生們,問答環節到此結束。如有任何疑問,請聯絡 investorrelations@tcenergy。現在我將把電話交給加文·懷利,請他作總結發言。
Gavin Wylie - IR Contact Officer
Gavin Wylie - IR Contact Officer
I just wanted to say once again thank you for attending the call this morning, and for the great questions. As the operator stated, if we didn't get to your question or if there was anything that was outstanding, please feel free to contact us in the Investor Relations team. We're always happy to help and of course we look forward to providing you our next update likely in mid-February. Thank you.
我再次感謝各位今天上午參加電話會議,也感謝你們提出的精彩問題。正如客服人員所說,如果您的問題沒有得到解答,或者還有任何未解決的問題,請隨時聯繫投資者關係團隊。我們一直樂於提供協助,當然,我們也期待在二月中旬左右向您提供下一次更新。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
This brings to a close today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating, and have a pleasant day.
今天的電話會議到此結束。您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與,祝您有個愉快的一天。