Tronox Holdings PLC (TROX) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Tronox Holdings second-quarter 2024 earnings call conference. (Operator Instructions) This call is being recorded on Friday, August 2, 2024.

早安，女士們、先生們，歡迎參加 Tronox Holdings 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）此通話錄音時間為 2024 年 8 月 2 日星期五。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Jennifer Guenther. Please go ahead.

我現在想把會議交給珍妮佛·岡瑟。請繼續。

Thank you, and welcome to our second-quarter 2024 Conference Call and webcast.

謝謝，歡迎參加我們的 2024 年第二季電話會議和網路廣播。

Turning to slide 2. On our call today are John Romano, Chief Executive Officer, and John Srivisal, Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer. We will be using slides as we move through today's call. You can access the presentation on our website at investor.tronox.com.

轉到投影片 2。今天參加我們電話會議的有執行長約翰·羅馬諾 (John Romano) 和高級副總裁兼財務長約翰·斯里維薩爾 (John Srivisal)。我們將在今天的電話會議中使用幻燈片。您可以在我們的網站 Investor.tronox.com 上存取簡報。

Moving to slide 3, a friendly reminder that comments made on this call and the information provided in our presentation and on our website include certain statements that are forward-looking and subject to various risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to the specific factors summarized in our SEC filings. This information represents our best judgment based on what we know today. However, actual results may vary based on these risks and uncertainties. The company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward looking statements.

轉向幻燈片3，友情提醒，對本次電話會議的評論以及我們的簡報和我們網站上提供的資訊包括某些前瞻性陳述，並受到各種風險和不確定性的影響，包括但不限於總結的具體因素在我們向 SEC 提交的文件中。這些資訊代表了我們根據目前所知所做的最佳判斷。然而，實際結果可能會因這些風險和不確定性而有所不同。該公司不承擔更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

During the conference call, we will refer to certain non-US GAAP financial terms that we use in the management of our business and believe are useful to investors in evaluating the company's performance. Reconciliations to their nearest US GAAP terms are provided in our earnings release and in the appendix of the accompanying presentation. Additionally, please note that all financial comparisons made during the call are on a year-over-year basis, unless otherwise noted.

在電話會議期間，我們將參考我們在業務管理中使用的某些非美國公認會計準則財務術語，並認為這些術語對投資者評估公司績效有用。我們的收益報告和隨附簡報的附錄中提供了與最接近的美國公認會計準則條款的調節。此外，請注意，除非另有說明，否則電話會議期間進行的所有財務比較都是逐年進行的。

It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to John Romano. John?

現在我很高興將電話轉給約翰羅馬諾。約翰？

Thanks, Jennifer, and good morning, everyone. We'll begin this morning on slide 5 with some key messages from the quarter. We delivered the second-quarter performance within our previously guided ranges. Tio2 volumes improved sequentially 8% over a strong Q1 performance and this represented a 16% increase over the prior year as volumes continue to recover from the low levels realized in 2023. This sequential growth reflects an increase in demand that is consistent with our seasonal trends.

謝謝，詹妮弗，大家早安。我們將從今天早上的幻燈片 5 開始，介紹本季的一些關鍵資訊。我們在先前的指導範圍內交付了第二季的業績。與第一季的強勁表現相比，二氧化鈦銷量環比增長了 8%，隨著銷量繼續從 2023 年實現的低水平恢復，這意味著比上一年增長了 16%。這種環比增長反映了需求的增長，這與我們的季節性趨勢一致。

Zircon demand was relatively stable compared to the first quarter, which factored into a shipment at the end of the quarter that rolled into Q3. Pricing for both TiO2 and zircon increased sequentially, but were both partially offset by unfavorable mix.

與第一季相比，鋯石需求相對穩定，這已計入第三季末的出貨量。TiO2 和鋯石的價格相繼上漲，但都因不利的混合而部分抵消。

On the operations side, our total pigment plant utilization rate in the second quarter was lower than targeted, driven by short-term challenges relating to ramping up our assets. As a result, we incurred higher costs in the second quarter than anticipated and delivered adjusted EBITDA of $161 million at the lower end of our guided range and margins just under 20%.

在營運方面，由於與增加資產有關的短期挑戰，我們第二季的顏料工廠總利用率低於目標。因此，我們第二季的成本高於預期，調整後 EBITDA 為 1.61 億美元，處於指導範圍的下限，利潤率略低於 20%。

While this will impact the margins of pigments sold in the third quarter, the operating challenges we experienced during the ramp up in the second quarter are now resolved, and our average pigment plant utilization rate for July was in the 80% range, and we expect this to continue for the balance of the year. We'll discuss these operational dynamics and how it will impact the third-quarter costs later in the call.

雖然這將影響第三季銷售顏料的利潤率，但我們在第二季產能提升過程中遇到的營運挑戰現已解決，我們 7 月的平均顏料工廠利用率在 80% 範圍內，我們預計這一情況將持續到今年剩餘時間。我們將在稍後的電話會議中討論這些營運動態以及它將如何影響第三季的成本。

Our free cash flow for the quarter was a source of $84 million, and we expect to continue to generate positive free cash flow for the second half and full year. On the sustainability front, we published our 2023 sustainability report earlier this week.

我們本季的自由現金流為 8,400 萬美元，我們預計下半年和全年將繼續產生正的自由現金流。在永續發展方面，我們在本週稍早發布了 2023 年永續發展報告。

Turning to slide 6, I'll briefly review the sustainability related goals and targets. Our 2023 report details meaningful accomplishments achieved in the past year, driving continued progress toward our previously established sustainability goals. It also reinforces the unwavering commitment to our sustainability strategy and our purposeful investments in our people, operations, and product portfolio. In this report, we reinforced our carbon emissions reduction targets, including reducing Scope 1 and 2 carbon emissions intensity by 50% by 2030 against a 2019 baseline and achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 and reducing Scope 3 carbon emissions by 9% by 2025 and 16% by 2030 against a 2021 baseline.

轉向投影片 6，我將簡要回顧與永續發展相關的目標和具體目標。我們的 2023 年報告詳細介紹了過去一年取得的有意義的成就，推動我們朝著先前製定的永續發展目標不斷取得進展。它還強化了我們對永續發展策略的堅定承諾以及對人員、營運和產品組合的有針對性的投資。在本報告中，我們強化了碳減排目標，包括到2030 年將範圍1 和範圍2 碳排放強度較2019 年基準降低50%，到2050 年實現碳中和，到2025 年將範圍3 碳排放量分別降低9% 和16%到 2030 年，以 2021 年為基準。

We've made significant progress on our carbon emissions reduction targets this year, with two renewable energy contracts in South Africa that will convert on a combined basis a total of 70% of our electricity in the region from coal-based to renewable sources when the second project comes online in 2027. As a result of this latest expected project time line, we adjusted our Scope 1 and 2 emissions reduction target for 2025 to 25% from 35%.

今年，我們在碳減排目標方面取得了重大進展，在南非簽訂了兩項可再生能源合同，當第二個項目將於 2027 年上線。根據最新的預期專案時間表，我們將 2025 年範圍 1 和範圍 2 的減排目標從 35% 調整為 25%。

We're focused on numerous other initiatives, including reducing waste at our external landfills, partnering with our top emitting suppliers to help reduce emissions across the value chain, and our continuous involvement and partnership with the communities in which we operate. We firmly believe in the importance of safeguarding our operational privilege both now and in the future. This is why we ensure that sustainability is seamlessly integrated through our business strategy, operations, and culture and will continue to support our priority to grow the business and create lasting value for stakeholders.

我們專注於許多其他舉措，包括減少外部垃圾掩埋場的廢物、與我們的頂級排放供應商合作以幫助減少整個價值鏈的排放，以及我們與我們經營所在社區的持續參與和合作。我們堅信現在和未來維護我們的營運特權的重要性。這就是為什麼我們確保永續發展與我們的業務策略、營運和文化無縫結合，並將繼續支持我們發展業務和為利害關係人創造持久價值的優先事項。

I'll now turn the call over to John to review some of our financials from the quarter in more detail. John?

我現在將把電話轉給約翰，以更詳細地審查我們本季的一些財務狀況。約翰？

Thank you, John. Turning to slide 7. We generated revenue of $820 million, an increase of 3% compared to the prior year, or 6% sequentially, driven primarily by higher TiO2 volumes. Income from operations was $76 million in the quarter, and we reported net income attributable to Tronox of $16 million. While our profit before tax was $55 million, our tax expense was $45 million in the quarter.

謝謝你，約翰。轉到投影片 7。我們的營收達到 8.2 億美元，比上一年增長 3%，環比增長 6%，這主要是由於 TiO2 銷量增加。本季營運收入為 7,600 萬美元，我們報告歸屬於 Tronox 的淨利潤為 1,600 萬美元。雖然我們的稅前利潤為 5500 萬美元，但本季的稅費為 4500 萬美元。

This was driven by a $16 million valuation allowance in Brazil and losses in jurisdictions where we have preexisting valuation allowances. As a result, our adjusted diluted earnings per share was $0.07. As John previously mentioned, our adjusted EBITDA in the quarter was $161 million, and our adjusted EBITDA margin was 19.6%. CapEx for the quarter was $76 million, and we generated free cash flow of $84 million in the quarter.

這是由於巴西 1600 萬美元的估值津貼以及我們預先存在估值津貼的司法管轄區的損失所致。因此，我們調整後的稀釋每股收益為 0.07 美元。正如約翰之前提到的，我們本季調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.61 億美元，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 19.6%。本季的資本支出為 7,600 萬美元，我們在本季產生的自由現金流為 8,400 萬美元。

Now let's move to slide 8 for a review of our commercial performance. Q2 came in relatively in line with expectations. TiO2 revenues increased 7% versus the year-ago quarter, as sales volumes improved 16%, partially offset by 8% decline in price and mix. On a sequential basis, TiO2 revenues increased 8%, driven by improved sales volumes in all regions. Pricing increased 1% over Q1, as expected, while unfavorable mix partially offset this increase. Zircon demand remained relatively flat to Q1, as expected, with a slight decrease driven by a shipment rolling into the third quarter. Zircon pricing increased 1% sequentially.

現在讓我們轉到投影片 8 來回顧我們的商業表現。第二季的情況相對符合預期。TiO2 營收較去年同期成長 7%，銷售成長 16%，但價格和產品組合下降 8% 部分抵銷了這一影響。受所有地區銷售成長的推動，二氧化鈦收入較上季成長 8%。正如預期，定價比第一季上漲 1%，而不利的組合部分抵消了這一增長。如預期，鋯石需求與第一季相比仍相對持平，第三季出貨量略有下降。鋯石價格較上季上漲 1%。

Now turning to slide 9, I will now review our operating performance for the quarter. Our adjusted EBITDA of $161 million represented a 4% decline year on year, driven by lower average selling prices and mix. This was partially offset by improved production costs, including lower input costs for materials such as coke, chlorine, and caustic soda, higher sales volume, and favorable exchange rates. Additionally, our freight costs continued to see rate decreases on a cost-per-ton basis.

現在轉到投影片 9，我現在將回顧我們本季的營運表現。由於平均售價和產品組合下降，調整後 EBITDA 為 1.61 億美元，年減 4%。這部分被生產成本的提高所抵消，包括焦炭、氯氣和燒鹼等材料的投入成本降低、銷售增加以及有利的匯率。此外，我們的貨運成本以每噸成本為基礎繼續下降。

Sequentially, adjusted EBITDA improved 23%. Compared to Q1, production costs improved an incremental $20 million on a net basis. This was comprised of a $26 million improvement relating to favorable absorption from lower cost tons produced in the first quarter that were sold in the second quarter. This was partially offset by a net $6 million of period costs taken in Q2 due to the lower operating rates. Other tailwinds versus the prior quarter, as expected, were price mix and volume while FX was a headwind.

隨後，調整後 EBITDA 提高了 23%。與第一季相比，生產成本淨增加了 2,000 萬美元。其中包括 2,600 萬美元的改進，該改進與第一季生產的低成本噸位在第二季銷售的有利吸收有關。這被第二季度由於營運率較低而產生的淨 600 萬美元期間成本所部分抵消。正如預期的那樣，與上一季相比，其他有利因素是價格組合和交易量，而外匯則是不利因素。

Turning to slide 10, I'll now review our balance sheet and cash position. We ended the quarter with total debt of $2.8 billion and net debt of $2.6 billion. Our net leverage ratio at the end of June was 5.2 times on a trailing 12-month basis. Following a second quarter of sequential growth, our balance sheet remained strong with ample liquidity ahead of anticipated critical and vertically integration-related capital expenditures. Our weighted average interest rate in Q2 was 5.99%, down from 6.15% in Q1 from the repricing transaction.

轉到投影片 10，我現在將審查我們的資產負債表和現金狀況。本季結束時，我們的總債務為 28 億美元，淨債務為 26 億美元。截至 6 月底，我們過去 12 個月的淨槓桿率為 5.2 倍。經過第二季的連續成長後，我們的資產負債表仍然強勁，流動性充足，超出了預期的關鍵和垂直整合相關的資本支出。由於重新定價交易，我們第二季的加權平均利率為 5.99%，低於第一季的 6.15%。

We maintained interest rate swaps such that approximately 73% of our interest rates are fixed through 2024, and approximately 64% are fixed from '24 through '28, aligning with the maturity of the earliest tranche of our term loan. Total available liquidity as of June 30 was $680 million, including $201 million in cash and cash equivalents that are well distributed across the globe. Capital expenditures totaled $76 million in the quarter. Approximately 40% of this was for maintenance and safety, and 60% was for strategic growth projects, heavily weighted on the mining side of the business, which we previously disclosed. Working capital was a source of $39 million driven by improved accounts payable. We returned $41 million to shareholders, which included the payment for both the first- and second-quarter declared dividends.

我們維持利率掉期，使約 73% 的利率在 2024 年之前保持固定，約 64% 在 24 年至 28 年期間保持固定，與我們定期貸款最早部分的到期日保持一致。截至 6 月 30 日，可用流動資金總額為 6.8 億美元，其中包括分佈在全球各地的 2.01 億美元現金和現金等價物。本季資本支出總計 7600 萬美元。其中約 40% 用於維護和安全，60% 用於戰略成長項目，重點關注業務的採礦方面，這一點我們之前曾披露過。由於應付帳款改善，營運資金來源為 3,900 萬美元。我們向股東返還 4,100 萬美元，其中包括第一季和第二季宣告股息的支付。

I will now turn the call back over to John Romano for comments on our outlook. John?

我現在將把電話轉回給約翰羅馬諾，徵求對我們前景的評論。約翰？

Thanks, John. So the first half of 2024 has already demonstrated a reversal of some of the trends from the prior two years, and we anticipate that recovery to continue. On a year-to-date basis through Q2, our TiO2 volumes were up approximately 17%, and our zircon volumes increased approximately 20% compared to the prior year. Although we are not yet back to normalized volume levels on either TiO2 or zircon, the improvement this year is a demonstration that 2023 was indeed a trough year for volume demand.

謝謝，約翰。因此，2024 年上半年已經出現了前兩年一些趨勢的逆轉，我們預計這種復甦將持續下去。從年初至今到第二季度，我們的 TiO2 產量比前一年增長了約 17%，鋯石產量增加了約 20%。儘管 TiO2 或鋯石的產量尚未恢復到正常水平，但今年的改善表明 2023 年確實是產量需求的低谷一年。

In addition to the recovery, we've also seen the launch of several anti-dumping investigations. Most notably, the EU announced a provisional duty last month on Chinese imports, while Brazil and India each have investigations underway. We believe these efforts will be a benefit in the medium and long-term, and we will continue to monitor the short-term impacts from these announcements.

除了復甦之外，我們還看到了幾起反傾銷調查的啟動。最值得注意的是，歐盟上個月宣布對中國進口產品徵收臨時關稅，而巴西和印度都正在進行調查。我們相信這些努力將在中長期帶來好處，我們將繼續關注這些公告的短期影響。

On the operational side this year, we've been ramping up our assets to meet the increased customer demand over 2023. As we were ramping up, we experienced some operational challenges across our sites, which caused Q2 operating rates to come in lower than what we had targeted, and this led to higher costs in Q2 and higher anticipated costs in Q3. Due to the breadth of our geographic footprint, we were able to continue to meet customer demand as we resolved these issues. We previously indicated that lower utilization rates impacted our business by $25 million to $35 million per quarter, and our startup challenges in Q2 resulted in a similar impact.

今年在營運方面，我們一直在增加資產，以滿足 2023 年不斷增長的客戶需求。隨著我們的擴張，我們在各個站點遇到了一些營運挑戰，這導致第二季的營運率低於我們的目標，這導致第二季的成本更高，第三季的預期成本更高。由於我們的地理覆蓋範圍廣泛，我們能夠在解決這些問題的同時繼續滿足客戶的需求。我們先前表示，較低的利用率每季對我們的業務造成 2,500 萬至 3,500 萬美元的影響，而我們在第二季的啟動挑戰也造成了類似的影響。

To put that into context, we incurred roughly half of the impact in the second quarter and expect the remaining half to impact the third quarter, which is included in our outlook. These short-term challenges have now been resolved, and our average utilization rates for July were in the 80% range. We expect to continue running at this rate through the second half of the year, which will result in lower cost and a step up in our earnings momentum in Q4. As we ramp-up, we're continuing to see the benefits of the technology we've deployed at our sites to reduce costs and improve efficiencies.

考慮到這一點，我們在第二季度產生了大約一半的影響，預計剩下的一半將影響第三季度，這已包含在我們的展望中。這些短期挑戰現已解決，7 月的平均利用率處於 80% 的範圍內。我們預計下半年將繼續以這種速度運行，這將導致成本降低並提高第四季度的獲利動能。隨著我們的發展，我們不斷看到我們在站點部署的技術在降低成本和提高效率方面的優勢。

As we mentioned in the last two quarters, we're investing $395 million in capital expenditures, primarily in the mining side of the business in South Africa to sustain vertical integration. As a reminder, in 2024, we expect to invest a total of approximately $130 million in our two South African mining projects, the Fairbreeze expansion and the Namakwa East OFS. These investments will ensure we maintain our $300 to $400 per metric ton advantage for feedstock sourced internally. From a growth perspective, our R&D efforts remain focused on product and process innovations to enhance our profitability and we're continuing to explore opportunities in the rare earth space.

正如我們在過去兩個季度所提到的，我們將投資 3.95 億美元的資本支出，主要用於南非業務的採礦方面，以維持垂直整合。謹此提醒，到 2024 年，我們預計將總共投資約 1.3 億美元用於我們的兩個南非採礦項目：Fairbreeze 擴建項目和 Namakwa East OFS。這些投資將確保我們保持內部採購原料每噸 300 至 400 美元的優勢。從成長的角度來看，我們的研發工作仍然集中在產品和製程創新上，以提高我們的獲利能力，並且我們將繼續探索稀土領域的機會。

Moving to slide 12, I'll now review our outlook. While the macro backdrop to the second half of 2024 is expected to be less robust than previously anticipated, Tronox has realized and expects to continue to realize considerable growth compared to 2023. For the third quarter, we expect TiO2 volumes to decline in line with seasonal norms by approximately 2% to 4% compared to the second quarter. This represents an increase in the high teens range compared to the third quarter of 2023.

轉到幻燈片 12，我現在將回顧我們的前景。儘管 2024 年下半年的宏觀背景預計將不如先前預期強勁，但 Tronox 已經意識到並預計與 2023 年相比將繼續實現可觀的成長。對於第三季度，我們預計 TiO2 銷量將按季節正常情況比第二季度下降約 2% 至 4%。與 2023 年第三季相比，這顯示高青少年範圍有所增加。

Regarding zircon, we anticipate stable volumes in the third quarter, which would represent an increase of approximately 160% compared to the trough levels we realized in the third quarter of last year. We anticipate TiO2 prices to increase marginally compared to Q2, and we expect zircon pricing to remain relatively stable.

關於鋯石，我們預計第三季銷量穩定，與去年第三季的低谷水平相比將增長約 160%。我們預計 TiO2 價格將比第二季小幅上漲，並且我們預計鋯石價格將保持相對穩定。

On our cost, the higher cost pigment tons manufactured in the second quarter will impact our profitability as these tons are sold in the third quarter. And this has been factored into the range. Additionally, based on current exchange rates, we expect FX to be a slight headwind in Q3. As a result of these factors and assumptions, we expect third-quarter adjusted EBITDA to be between $145 million and $165 million, and our adjusted EBITDA margin to be in the high teens. As previously referenced, our average utilization rates are now running at 80% range, and we expect that to continue through the second half of the year.

就我們的成本而言，第二季生產的成本較高的顏料噸將影響我們的獲利能力，因為這些噸在第三季出售。這已被計入範圍內。此外，根據當前匯率，我們預期第三季外匯將出現輕微阻力。由於這些因素和假設，我們預計第三季調整後 EBITDA 將在 1.45 億美元至 1.65 億美元之間，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率將達到十幾歲。如前所述，我們的平均利用率目前處於 80% 的範圍內，我們預計這種情況將持續到今年下半年。

This would result in an improvement in pigment manufacturing costs and a step up in earnings momentum sequentially in the fourth quarter. On cash, our expectations for 2024 remain unchanged and are as follows. Our capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $395 million for the year. Our net cash taxes are expected to be less than $10 million, as the significant capital expenditures in South Africa are deductible. Our net cash interest is expected to be $140 million, and we're expecting working capital to be a tailwind. The magnitude of the cash inflow will depend on the market trends in the second half.

這將導致顏料製造成本的改善和第四季度獲利動能的增強。就現金而言，我們對 2024 年的預期保持不變，如下。我們今年的資本支出預計約為 3.95 億美元。我們的淨現金稅預計將低於 1000 萬美元，因為南非的大量資本支出是可以扣除的。我們的淨現金利息預計為 1.4 億美元，我們預計營運資金將成為推動因素。現金流入的大小將取決於下半年的市場走勢。

Turning to slide 13, I'd like to briefly remind investors of our capital allocation priorities before turning over to questions. Our capital allocation strategy has not changed. We continue to prioritize investments in the business that are essential for advancing our strategy and maximizing value for a vertically integrated business. We also remain focused on strengthening our liquidity and resuming debt pay down as the market recovers, and our dividend remains a priority. And finally, we'll continue to assess strategic high growth opportunities as they emerge, including the rare earth space, which is an active focus for us at the moment. We'll provide more updates on this as developments happen with these projects.

轉向投影片 13，我想在開始提問之前簡要提醒投資者我們的資本配置優先事項。我們的資本配置策略沒有改變。我們繼續優先考慮對推進我們的策略和最大化垂直整合業務價值至關重要的業務投資。隨著市場復甦，我們也繼續專注於增強流動性並恢復債務償還，而我們的股息仍然是首要任務。最後，我們將繼續評估出現的策略性高成長機會，包括稀土領域，這是我們目前積極關注的焦點。隨著這些項目的進展，我們將提供更多相關更新。

That will conclude the prepared remarks and we'll now move to the Q&A portion of the call. So I will hand the call back over to the operator to facilitate that. Operator?

準備好的演講就到此結束，我們現在將進入電話會議的問答部分。因此，我會將電話轉回給接線員以方便處理。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) John McNulty, BMO Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）John McNulty，BMO 資本市場。

So I guess the first question is just on the cost impact of the ramp-up issue. So I think you kind of implied it's at about the same as the low utilization rate issues you had over the past few quarters, so $20 million to $25 million. So when you say it's split between 2Q and 3Q, is that essentially $10 million to $15 million each quarter? Or are you going to see a $20 million to $25 million hit in each of those quarters?

所以我想第一個問題只是關於提升問題的成本影響。因此，我認為您暗示這與過去幾季的低利用率問題大致相同，即 2000 萬至 2500 萬美元。那麼，當你說第二季和第三季之間分配時，基本上每季都是 1000 萬美元到 1500 萬美元嗎？或者您會看到每個季度的收入達到 2000 萬至 2500 萬美元嗎？

And I guess more importantly, now that you're at utilization rates where you should be kind of in the 80% plus range, should we be still seeing risk of ramp-up issues as demand and utilization rates climb? Or have you kind of reached a tipping point where you've gotten, you're running hard enough now where you realistically won't see material impacts or risks around ramping up further?

我想更重要的是，現在利用率應該在 80% 以上的範圍內，隨著需求和利用率的攀升，我們是否仍會看到成長問題的風險？或者你已經達到了一個臨界點，你現在已經足夠努力了，實際上你不會看到進一步提升帶來的實質影響或風險？

Yes, thanks for the question, John. So look, on the first one, I would say that's split evenly $15 million in the second quarter and about $15 million in the third quarter from a cost perspective. And we also mentioned that there was some FX impact that could impact the business, and that was a headwind. So that could be somewhere in the $5 million range.

是的，謝謝你的提問，約翰。因此，就第一個而言，從成本角度來看，我想說第二季平均分配 1500 萬美元，第三季平均分配 1500 萬美元。我們也提到，一些外匯影響可能會影響業務，這是一個阻力。所以這可能在 500 萬美元的範圍內。

As far as where we are in the ramp-up, there wasn't really any one issue that you can point to on that ramp-up issue. We've got nine plants, and even throughout our operations on the mining side of the business, we had some issues ramping up the assets, and we are at that 80% range. We ran the entire month of July at that improved rate. Moving into August, we're seeing the same kinds of things. So when we think about that 80%, that's on average over those assets. And through the rest of the year, we're going to have planned outages, so those numbers will fluctuate.

就我們在加速階段的進展而言，在加速問題上實際上沒有任何一個問題可以指出。我們有九家工廠，甚至在我們採礦業務的整個營運過程中，我們在增加資產方面也遇到了一些問題，我們處於 80% 的範圍內。我們整個 7 月的運行速度都提高了。進入八月，我們看到了同樣的事情。因此，當我們考慮 80% 時，這是這些資產的平均值。在今年剩下的時間裡，我們將計劃停電，因此這些數字將會波動。

But on average, yes, we're expecting to be at 80%. We feel like the issues that we had during that ramp-up process have run their course. And that's why we said we felt pretty comfortable about where we are on that run rate and that run rate being consistent to the balance of the year. And that's where when we talk a little bit about the fourth quarter, and typically, you'll see some seasonality in there. We'll talk about that, I'm sure, later with regards to what demand would be, because we're not going to really provide a lot of forward look on the fourth quarter as far as the market. But the reason we made those comments is because we do feel comfortable that that step up in earnings momentum is going to come from lower cost tons produced that will be sold throughout the balance of the year, predominantly in the fourth quarter.

但平均而言，是的，我們預期該比例為 80%。我們覺得我們在啟動過程中遇到的問題已經結束了。這就是為什麼我們說我們對目前的運行率感到非常滿意，並且運行率與今年剩餘時間保持一致。這就是當我們談論第四季度時，通常情況下，您會看到一些季節性因素。我確信，稍後我們會討論需求是什麼，因為我們不會真正對第四季的市場提供很多前瞻性的展望。但我們發表這些評論的原因是，我們確實感到放心，獲利動能的增強將來自於成本較低的產量，這些產量將在今年餘下時間（主要是第四季）出售。

John, any comments?

約翰，有什麼意見嗎？

There's nothing else.

沒有別的了。

And then maybe just as the follow-up, so you list on the outlook page working capital is going to be a source of cash. Can you help to frame that a little bit? It does seem like you should have a decent amount of inventory release. Can you help us to think about how big that working capital cash source could be as we look to the back half of the year and for a full-year '24?

然後也許就像後續行動一樣，您在展望頁面上列出的營運資金將成為現金來源。能幫忙稍微設計一下嗎？看起來你確實應該釋放相當數量的庫存。當我們展望今年下半年和 24 年全年時，您能否幫助我們思考營運資金現金來源可能有多大？

Yes, I think we've mentioned that in John's comments that working capital we expect to be a slight tailwind for the full year. And frankly, it will depend on the market recovery and how Q3 -- we obviously have guided on volumes slightly down there, but also Q4, depends on where that ends up at, which will determine the scope and size of the working capital benefit. But as we did mention, we are ramping up our facilities. So we are building a bit of inventory throughout the rest of the year. But obviously if that converts to cash, it will flow much to the free cash flow and be able to use that to pay down to build cash and have our net leverage go down.

是的，我想我們在約翰的評論中提到，我們預計營運資本將成為全年的輕微推動力。坦白說，這將取決於市場復甦以及第三季度的情況——我們顯然已經指導了銷量略有下降，但第四季度也取決於最終的結果，這將決定營運資金效益的範圍和規模。但正如我們所提到的，我們正在擴大我們的設施。因此，我們將在今年剩餘時間內建立一些庫存。但顯然，如果這轉化為現金，它將大量流入自由現金流，並能夠用它來支付現金並降低我們的淨槓桿率。

But from an AR perspective, we are seeing increased sales in Q1 and Q2 that drove higher AR in the quarter. Good use of working capital that will ultimately convert to cash. We are seeing the second half of the year, based on what I mentioned on the commercial side, that we would recover some of that in the second half of the year. And secondly, and finally, sorry, AP was the use of cash in Q1. What we mentioned is that would [fall] back throughout the rest of the year. We saw it in Q2 and expect to see a bit more in the second half of the year.

但從 AR 的角度來看，我們看到第一季和第二季的銷售額增加，推動了本季 AR 的成長。充分利用營運資金，最終轉化為現金。我們看到下半年，根據我在商業方面提到的內容，我們將在下半年恢復一些。其次，最後，抱歉，AP 是第一季使用現金的情況。我們提到的是，這一數字將在今年剩餘時間內回落。我們在第二季度看到了這一點，預計下半年會看到更多。

Maybe just a little bit more color on that. In the first quarter, we saw a big bump in our sales, it was 18%. It was 8% in the second quarter. And we started ramping up, and we didn't hit the targets we were looking at from a production perspective. So in the second quarter, we actually drew inventory down. So there is a need. John, make reference to building some inventory. We've got some plants that actually need to build some of that inventory to make sure we can continue to meet the demand as it's forecasted.

也許只是多一點顏色。第一季度，我們的銷售額大幅成長，成長了 18%。第二季為8%。我們開始加大力度，但沒有達到從生產角度來看的目標。因此，在第二季度，我們實際上減少了​​庫存。所以有必要。約翰，請參考建立一些庫存。我們有一些工廠實際上需要建立一些庫存，以確保我們能夠繼續滿足預測的需求。

Frank Mitsch, Fermium Research.

弗蘭克米奇，費米研究中心。

John, if I could just follow-up and get a clarification of what exactly you are referring to when you talk about a step up in earnings momentum in the fourth quarter. You've used that phrase a couple times. What exactly are you referring to? Are you referring that the Q4, your expectation is that it might be more than Q3?

約翰，當您談到第四季度盈利勢頭的增強時，我能否跟進並澄清您到底指的是什麼。你已經用過這個短語好幾次了。你到底指的是什麼？你指的是Q4，你的預期是它可能會超過Q3？

Well, what I'm referring to is that we're going to have lower costs, and those lower costs will reflect higher margins in the fourth quarter as we sell those tons. So we're selling higher cost tons in the third quarter because we have lower production rates, which we talked about. Plants are now running at rate and the lower cost inventory that we will be selling in the fourth quarter will generate better margins. So when we made the comments in, I think, the release, we made some reference about the second half being stronger than the first half, but there's lots of things.

嗯，我指的是我們將降低成本，而這些較低的成本將反映出我們在第四季度出售這些噸產品時獲得的更高的利潤。因此，我們在第三季銷售成本較高的噸，因為我們的生產力較低，我們談到了這一點。工廠目前正在正常運轉，我們將在第四季度銷售的成本較低的庫存將產生更好的利潤。因此，當我們在發布中發表評論時，我認為我們提到了下半年比上半年更強，但還有很多事情。

Again, as a practice, we don't provide any color beyond 90 days. So one quarter out, we don't provide -- so we're not providing guidance on the fourth quarter. But there's lots of things that are going to drive fourth quarter. I mean, you've got the economy, the election, jobs reports just came out, which are an impact. There's inflation. You've also got dumping. Pricing may have an impact on that if there's opportunities to do that.

再次強調，作為慣例，我們不會提供超過 90 天的任何顏色。因此，我們不會提供第四季的指導。但有許多因素將推動第四季的發展。我的意思是，經濟、選舉、就業報告剛剛發布，這些都是有影響的。有通貨膨脹。你也有傾銷。如果有機會的話，定價可能會對此產生影響。

So just think about normal seasonal fluctuations in the fourth quarter. And defining normal seasonal fluctuations in the fourth quarter, it's kind of difficult because I'd say over the last 10 years, there's been lots of anomalies in the fourth quarter. But if you kind of pull all of those out, and I looked at this last night going back to 2007, call it in a normal season, if you can define normal seasonal adjustments in the fourth quarter, down 5% to 10%. Sometimes we've seen it up significantly. Sometimes it's down significantly. So pull 5% to 10%, one of the assumptions that even with the volume being down, we're expecting to get earnings potential over and above what we would have in the third quarter because the tons that we're going to be selling are being a lower cost.

因此，只需考慮第四季度的正常季節性波動即可。定義第四季的正常季節性波動有點困難，因為我想說，在過去的十年裡，第四季出現了許多異常情況。但如果你把所有這些都拿出來，我昨晚看了這個，可以追溯到2007 年，如果你能在第四季度定義正常的季節性調整，下降5% 到10%，那就稱之為正常季節。有時我們已經看到它顯著增加。有時會大幅下降。因此，將 5% 拉至 10%，假設之一是，即使銷量下降，我們預計獲利潛力也將超過第三季的水平，因為我們要銷售的噸數成本較低。

Yes, I think Frank, I think you asked a similar question last quarter, and I think the way you asked it was appropriate, because, all things being equal, if we continue to run in July for the rest of the year, you will see that add back of $15 million to your earnings. But obviously, as John mentioned, there's lots of things that go into our results, obviously, both on the cost side as well as the commercial side that can impact that. But we are confident that that running higher rates will have a step change in our cost position. When you did see it in our Q2 bridge, Q1 over Q2, there was a bump up in that operating cost bar there, so.

是的，我認為弗蘭克，我認為您上個季度提出了類似的問題，而且我認為您提出的方式是適當的，因為，在所有條件相同的情況下，如果我們在今年剩餘時間裡繼續在7月運行，您將看看您的收入將增加 1500 萬美元。但顯然，正如約翰所提到的，有很多因素會影響我們的結果，顯然，無論是成本方面還是商業方面都會影響這一點。但我們相信，更高的利率將使我們的成本狀況發生階躍變化。當你在我們的 Q2 橋中看到它時，Q1 超過 Q2，那裡的運營成本欄有所上升，所以。

And I guess at this stage, it's really hard to determine what our volumes are going to look like because of all these factors that are just a bit early for us to be projecting what that number is going to look like in the fourth quarter. So that's where that color came from.

我想在現階段，很難確定我們的銷量會是什麼樣子，因為所有這些因素對我們來說預測第四季度的銷量還為時過早。這就是那種顏色的來源。

And if I could just ask about anti-dumping, given the favorable news out of the EU, are you hearing of any customer behavior changes in the EU? What is your expectation as to how that may play out in terms of pricing and volumes for the Western producers, including yourselves, into that region? And then just lastly on that, any sort of timeframe as to when we might be hearing something regarding Brazil and India?

如果我可以問一下反傾銷問題，考慮到歐盟傳來的有利消息，您是否聽說歐盟的客戶行為發生了任何變化？您對西方生產商（包括您自己）進入該地區的定價和產量有何期望？最後，我們什麼時候可能聽到有關巴西和印度的消息？

Yes. So Frank, the EU provisional duties were put in place in July, and there's still a lot of time to go through between now and July, but you can -- now and the end of the year before provisionals could turn into permanent duties. But you've seen already a lot of movement, right? EU exports from China in the last two months have dropped significantly. You saw a big pick up in exports into India, a pretty big pick up into Brazil. And there is some, I'd say, movement going on.

是的。弗蘭克，歐盟臨時關稅已於 7 月實施，從現在到 7 月還有很長的時間，但您可以從現在到年底，臨時關稅才能轉變為永久關稅。但你已經看到很多動作了，對吧？過去兩個月歐盟對中國的出口大幅下降。你看到對印度的出口大幅回升，對巴西的出口也大幅回升。我想說，有些運動正在進行中。

Inside China, for instance, which is not a big market for us, we've seen the Chinese pushing hard to try to pick up more market share. And that's why there's some noise around pricing, although we saw bit of a lift in the second quarter and we talked about a lift in the third quarter, a marginal one. There's still a lot of movement regionally due to that activity that's going on on the assumption that duties in the EU would go into place. So we are seeing some activity, I would say.

例如，在中國，這對我們來說並不是一個大市場，但我們看到中國人正在努力爭取更多的市場份額。這就是為什麼定價方面存在一些噪音，儘管我們在第二季度看到了一些提升，並且我們談到了第三季的提升，但幅度很小。由於這些活動是在歐盟關稅到位的假設下進行的，因此該地區仍然存在許多運動。我想說，我們看到了一些活動。

Right now, there's still a fair amount of volume that needs to get kind of absorbed. There's a lot of Chinese material sitting over there. But I think on the mid to long-term, we would see that as a lift to the business if they're put in place effectively. Because ultimately, the volume and the price implications that are attached, that should lead to better margins for us. And then as far as India and Brazil go, those investigations are underway. It's our expectations that we should see some sort of indication on what's happening in those two countries.

目前，仍有相當數量的交易量需要被吸收。那裡有很多中國材料。但我認為從中長期來看，如果這些措施有效落實，我們會認為這對業務有促進作用。因為最終，附帶的數量和價格影響應該會為我們帶來更好的利潤。至於印度和巴西，這些調查正在進行中。我們期望能夠看到有關這兩個國家正在發生的事情的某種跡象。

Sometime maybe the late third quarter for Brazil and probably fourth quarter for India. We don't have a tremendous amount of visibility. Those investigations are still, I'd say, more in their infancy as far as the evaluation of what's going to happen there. But those are two big markets, too. If you just think about Brazil's 180,000 market and there's roughly 100,000 tons of Chinese exports going into Brazil.

有時巴西可能會在第三季末，印度可能會在第四季。我們沒有太多的知名度。我想說，就評估那裡將要發生的事情而言，這些調查仍處於起步階段。但這也是兩個大市場。如果你考慮巴西 18 萬個市場，大約有 10 萬噸中國出口到巴西。

India is approximately 450,000 tons. And trailing 12-month exports into India from China are 278,000 tons. And those tons can only go so many places. APAC in general, if you exclude China, it's already 75% to 80% across that region saturated with Chinese material. So I think if those actions go into place, that should be a lift for the business.

印度約45萬噸。過去 12 個月中國向印度的出口量為 27.8 萬噸。而這些噸只能去這麼多地方。總體而言，亞太地區如果不包括中國，該地區 75% 到 80% 的材料已經飽和。因此，我認為如果這些行動落實到位，這應該會促進業務發展。

David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.

大衛‧貝格萊特，德意志銀行。

John, on zircon, can you size the shipment that was pushed into Q3? And on volumes here, what do you need to see to see volumes improve? Is it just Chinese demand or could other factors help drive volume improvement?

約翰，關於鋯石，您能確定推入第三季的出貨量嗎？就這裡的成交量而言，您需要看到什麼才能看到成交量的改善？只是中國的需求還是其他因素有助於推動銷量的成長？

Yes, thanks for the question. Look, that was a couple of thousand tons. It was not a large volume. That's why we said we were largely flat. And normally, historically we've talked about rollovers that might have been bulk shipments. These were container shipments and it wasn't significant.

是的，謝謝你的提問。你看，那可是幾千噸。體積不大。這就是為什麼我們說我們基本上持平。通常，從歷史上看，我們討論的可能是批量發貨的展期。這些都是貨櫃運輸，數量並不大。

And to your point, we still haven't seen China recovering on the zircon side of the business to the extent that -- that's why we're talking about flat volumes. It's pretty much where it was in the second quarter. And from a market perspective, zircon consumption globally is about 50% in China, because it's heavily influenced by the ceramic market. Our position in China is not as significant as it was before. But in order to get the full potential of the zircon back, we're going to need China to recover. And it's just a bit early for us to determine when that's going to be.

就您的觀點而言，我們仍然沒有看到中國鋯石業務的復甦達到這樣的程度——這就是我們談論銷量持平的原因。這與第二季的情況差不多。而且從市場角度來看，全球鋯石消費量大約有50%在中國，因為受陶瓷市場的影響很大。我們在中國的地位已經不像以前那麼重要了。但為了充分發揮鋯石的潛力，我們需要中國的復甦。我們現在確定具體時間還為時過早。

And just on CapEx, given the elevated spend this year, how should we think about CapEx in '25 and even '26?

就資本支出而言，考慮到今年支出的增加，我們應該如何考慮 25 年甚至 26 年的資本支出？

Yes, '24 obviously is a pretty sizable amount of $395 million, obviously from the mining investments in South Africa. We will see some of that spend in '25 as well as those are multi-year type of capital projects. But we will see it come down from that level. So we expect to be less than where we were, than where we'll be in 2024, probably in the mid-300 level.

是的，'24 顯然是一筆相當大的金額，達 3.95 億美元，顯然來自南非的採礦投資。我們將在 25 年看到其中一些支出以及多年期資本項目。但我們會看到它從這個水平下降。因此，我們預計會低於 2024 年的水平，可能會達到 300 左右的水平。

And '26 should start to trail down from there.

'26 應該從那裡開始下降。

Josh Spector, UBS.

喬許‧斯佩克特，瑞銀集團。

This is James Cannon on for Josh. I just wanted to poke on the guidance. So if you call out the $15 million impact from the ramp-up outage, your guide is only down $6 million. You're also talking about volumes being slightly down. What's the offset that bridges $15 million to $6 million?

我是詹姆斯·坎農 (James Cannon) 替約什 (Josh) 發言。我只是想了解一下指導。因此，如果您計算出啟動中斷帶來的 1500 萬美元影響，那麼您的指南僅減少了 600 萬美元。您還談到銷量略有下降。1500 萬美元到 600 萬美元之間的抵銷額是多少？

We did mention t's $15 million from the fixed cost leverage, another $5 million of hurt on FX, assuming that rates stay where they are today. I think on the upside, you do -- we have said that pricing is expected to increase slightly throughout the quarter as well.

我們確實提到固定成本槓桿會帶來 1500 萬美元的損失，假設匯率保持在今天的水平，外匯方面又會損失 500 萬美元。我認為從好的方面來看，我們已經說過，整個季度的定價預計也會略有上漲。

Does that answer your question?

這能回答你的問題嗎？

Yes. And then just on the CapEx guide, I think you lifted that from $350 million to $395 million. Was that all related with the outage? Or was there anything else? I think if I looked at the second quarter cash flow, you didn't really have any step up in CapEx there.

是的。然後就資本支出指南而言，我認為您將其從 3.5 億美元提高到了 3.95 億美元。這一切都與停電有關嗎？或是還有其他什麼事情嗎？我認為，如果我看一下第二季的現金流，就會發現那裡的資本支出並沒有真正增加。

Yes, no, $395 million has been our guide for several quarters now.

是的，不，3.95 億美元已經是我們幾季的指導方針。

That had nothing to do with any ramp-up issues.

這與任何加速問題無關。

Mike Leithead, Barclays.

麥克萊特黑德，巴克萊銀行。

Good morning, guys. Just one for me. I wanted to follow back up actually on, I think, McNulty's working capital question earlier. I think you said you need to rebuild some inventory in the second half. I guess when I look at your income statement, dollar inventory's still at all-time highs and your days' inventory is quite high. So maybe it's a product mix difference. But can you just help triangulate that for me?

早安，夥計們。只給我一個。我想我想實際上跟進麥克納爾蒂早些時候的營運資金問題。我想你說過下半年需要重建一些庫存。我想當我查看你們的損益表時，美元庫存仍處於歷史最高水平，而你們的日常庫存也相當高。所以也許這是產品組合的差異。但你能幫我三角測量一下嗎？

So I'll make a quick comment on what I was referring on inventories, and that was finished goods inventories on the pigment side. And then I'll let John talk about our overall inventory. John?

因此，我將快速評論我所指的庫存，即顏料方面的成品庫存。然後我會讓約翰談談我們的整體庫存。約翰？

Yes. So obviously pigment inventories, we expect to increase just from the ramp-up. And it will depend on what happens the rest of the year from a commercial's perspective, similarly on zircon. We are building zircon inventory throughout the year. We are at much lower levels than even in this higher environment in Q1 and Q2, much lower than what our production levels are.

是的。很明顯，我們預計顏料庫存會隨著產量的增加而增加。從商業角度來看，這將取決於今年剩餘時間會發生什麼，鋯石也類似。我們全年都在建立鋯石庫存。與第一季和第二季的較高環境相比，我們的水平要低得多，遠低於我們的生產水平。

And then from a feedstock perspective, we do continue to run our mines relatively flat out. So you did see a bit of a jump in Q2, which aligns with our pigment assets being down a bit. So we weren't consuming that feedstock through the cycle.

從原料的角度來看，我們的礦場確實繼續相對平穩地運作。所以你確實看到了第二季度的一些跳躍，這與我們的顏料資產略有下降是一致的。所以我們在整個週期中沒有消耗該原料。

There's also an element of cost attached to that inventory, so it's not just tons. Remember, we still have this fixed cost to high fixed cost inventory that we talked about working our way through in the second half of the year. We had the impact that we talked about earlier, that we were ramping up, and we didn't get the benefit of that. So it's not only the tons, it's the actual cost of that inventory that's sitting on the balance sheet that we'll continue to work through as we migrate through the year and into next.

庫存還涉及成本因素，因此不僅僅是噸數。請記住，我們仍然有這種固定成本到高固定成本庫存的情況，我們曾討論過要在今年下半年解決這個問題。我們產生了先前談到的影響，我們正在加大影響力，但我們並沒有從中受益。因此，資產負債表上的不僅是數量，還有庫存的實際成本，我們將在今年和明年的遷移過程中繼續解決這個問題。

John Roberts, Mizuho.

約翰·羅伯茨，瑞穗。

John, I just wanted to follow-up back on the earlier tariff discussion there. Are you suggesting that China is going to turn down its production because of the European tariffs and not be able to find new export markets for their volume?

約翰，我只是想跟進之前的關稅討論。您是否暗示中國將因歐洲關稅而減少產量，並且無法為其產量找到新的出口市場？

Well, I won't presuppose what China is going to do because I've been kind of pondering what they've been doing for the last three years and haven't been right yet. That being said, they're already starting to slow production now. We have a plant over there. We're pretty aware of what's happening in China. So there will be an impact.

好吧，我不會預設中國會做什麼，因為我一直在思考他們在過去三年裡所做的事情，但這還不夠正確。話雖這麼說，他們現在已經開始放慢生產速度了。我們在那裡有一個工廠。我們非常了解中國正在發生的事情。所以會有影響。

I mean, if you think about it from a cost perspective, they're moving volumes into other regions of the world on the assumption those EU duties are going to go into place, and they're doing that with price. At the same time, you haven't seen any improvement in cost. We've stated many times that at much higher prices, the majority of those Chinese companies or producers are losing money.

我的意思是，如果你從成本角度考慮，他們會在假設歐盟關稅即將到位的情況下將產量轉移到世界其他地區，並且他們會透過價格來做到這一點。同時，您還沒有看到成本有任何改善。我們已經多次說過，在價格高得多的情況下，大多數中國公司或生產商都在虧損。

Ilmenite pricing has not gone down. It's actually starting to trend up. Sulfur pricing, which is another significant input cost for them, has not -- it's starting to trend in the upper direction. So I think the short answer, John, is that one would have to assume that some sort of consolidation or closures would happen there if there is not a home for what -- I mean, if you just do the math real quick, it's, call it, 250,000 tons in India, 250,000 tons in the EU, and 100,000 tons in Brazil. If all of those were to go into place, there's not another 600,000 tons of demand to fill it.

鈦鐵礦價格並未下降。事實上，它已經開始呈上升趨勢。硫磺定價是他們的另一項重要投入成本，但並沒有——它開始呈上升趨勢。所以我認為，約翰，簡短的回答是，如果沒有一個家，人們必須假設那裡會發生某種整合或關閉——我的意思是，如果你快速算一下，那就是，印度25萬噸，歐盟25萬噸，巴西10萬噸。如果這一切都落實到位，就不會再有 60 萬噸的需求來滿足。

And then I'm not sure what's going on with Venator and Kronos these days, but are there any other competitive dynamics going on in Europe besides the Chinese competition?

然後我不確定這些天 Venator 和 Kronos 發生了什麼，但除了中國的競爭之外，歐洲還有其他競爭動態嗎？

We typically don't comment on our competitors. I mean, the only thing that's public out there is that Venator sold their interest in the Louisiana pigment plants over to Kronos. That was not a surprise to us. They were the natural buyer since that was their joint venture partner. And we don't see that as a negative.

我們通常不會評論我們的競爭對手。我的意思是，唯一公開的事情是 Venator 將其在路易斯安那州顏料工廠的權益出售給了 Kronos。這對我們來說並不奇怪。他們是自然的買家，因為那是他們的合資夥伴。我們並不認為這是負面的。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

文森安德魯斯，摩根士丹利。

This is Turner Hinrichs on for Vincent. I was hoping that you could speak to TiO2 inventory levels. Specifically, where do you see them in Europe right now relative to normal levels? And what are your expectations as to whether stocking could be a tailwind or a headwind in the near term?

我是特納辛里奇 (Turner Hinrichs) 替補文森特 (Vincent)。我希望您能談談二氧化鈦的庫存水平。具體來說，相對於正常水平，您目前在歐洲的情況如何？您對短期內庫存可能是順風還是逆風的預期是什麼？

I think last quarter -- and thanks for the call, Turner. We stated last quarter that there were three things that were driving the lift in demand. It was destocking, customers getting back to normal buying patterns, and then there was an element of demand. So we think destocking has, in fact, run its course. And I'm talking about now customers' inventory, not suppliers' inventory.

我想是上個季度——感謝特納的電話。我們上季表示，有三件事推動了需求的成長。這是去庫存，客戶恢復正常的購買模式，然後是需求因素。因此，我們認為去庫存實際上已經結束。我現在談論的是客戶的庫存，而不是供應商的庫存。

And I won't talk about industry inventory. I'll talk about ours. Our inventories have trended down in the first half of the year. We sold more in the first quarter than we produced. We sold more in the second quarter than we produced.

我不會談論行業庫存。我來談談我們的。今年上半年我們的庫存呈下降趨勢。我們第一季的銷售量超過了產量。我們第二季的銷售量超過了產量。

So I made reference that there is some areas where we actually need to build inventory, but where we feel we are right now, based on third-quarter projection on demand and where we feel we will be in the fourth quarter, we think that our production is in line with making sure we have the inventory that we need to be able to fill our customers' requirements, considering all the other dynamics that are going on in the industry. So I won't comment on our other competitors, though. But does that answer your question?

因此，我提到，在某些領域，我們實際上需要建立庫存，但根據第三季度的需求預測，我們認為現在的情況以及我們認為第四季度的情況，我們認為我們的庫存考慮到行業中正在發生的所有其他動態，生產符合確保我們擁有滿足客戶需求所需的庫存。所以我不會評論我們的其他競爭對手。但這能回答你的問題嗎？

Yes, absolutely. Do you mind providing a little or a few thoughts on your medium to long-term capital allocation priorities, just what they'll be following the paydown of debt and mining project investments that you all are doing right now?

是的，絕對是。您是否介意對您的中長期資本配置優先事項提供一點或一些想法，以及在您現在正在做的債務和採礦項目投資償還之後他們將做什麼？

Yes. So I mean, again, we stated in the prepared comments that our capital allocation policy hasn't changed. We're going to continue to invest in strategic projects to maintain our vertical integration. When the market starts to return, we will start to focus on paying down debt so we can maintain our liquidity. And look at our long-term debt portfolio, which we have talked about getting down close to $2 billion would be the long-term target.

是的。所以我的意思是，我們在準備好的評論中再次聲明，我們的資本配置政策沒有改變。我們將繼續投資策略項目以維持我們的垂直整​​合。當市場開始回歸時，我們將開始專注於償還債務，以便保持流動性。看看我們的長期債務投資組合，我們已經討論過將其減少到接近 20 億美元將是長期目標。

And then ultimately, and consistently, we've talked about maintaining the dividend. So not a lot of change on our capital allocation projects. And obviously, then there are other things. We've talked about the rare earth business. We don't have a lot more to comment on that, but that's still something that's continuing to evolve.

最後，我們始終如一地討論了維持股利的問題。因此，我們的資本配置項目沒有太多變化。顯然，還有其他事情。我們已經討論過稀土業務。我們對此沒有更多評論，但這仍然是一個正在不斷發展的事情。

We're taking a paced approach at that. There's lots of movements going on in that industry as well, and we don't want to take a step into that area until we're confident that our plan is going to be something that's viable in the long-term, generating good returns for the business long-term.

我們正在採取有節奏的方法。該行業也發生了許多變化，我們不想進入該領域，直到我們確信我們的計劃將是長期可行的，為客戶帶來良好的回報。

Hassan Ahmed, Alembic Global.

哈桑·艾哈邁德 (Hassan Ahmed)，Alembic Global。

A bit of a confusing quarter from a demand perspective. I'm just trying to get a better sense. You obviously talked about your operating rates not being where you wanted them to be, hence coming in at the lower end of the guidance range. I'm just trying to get a better feel of underlying demand. I mean, on one side of it, some of your raw material providers, Olin in particular, talked about how the TiO2 industry didn't sort of ramp-up the way they had expected it to. So they disappointed a bit over there. Some of the coatings guys are also talking about demand not being great. I mean, can you just sort of give us a better sense of what demand looks like, be it regionally, be it from an end market perspective?

從需求角度來看，這個季度有點令人困惑。我只是想獲得更好的感覺。您顯然談到您的開工率沒有達到您想要的水平，因此處於指導範圍的下限。我只是想更了解潛在需求。我的意思是，一方面，你們的一些原料供應商，特別是奧林，談到了二氧化鈦產業如何沒有按照他們預期的方式發展。所以他們那邊有點失望。一些塗料商也表示需求不大。我的意思是，您能否讓我們更了解需求狀況，無論是區域性的還是終端市場的角度？

And I mean, the added complexity obviously is inventory levels, anti-dumping stuff. There are all these different moving parts. So I mean, if you could just give us a sense of where underlying demand is regionally and market-wise. Could you actually hit high levels of demand even without sort of global economies recovering with this anti-dumping stuff that seems to be expanding across regions and the like?

我的意思是，增加的複雜性顯然是庫存水準和反傾銷問題。有所有這些不同的活動部件。所以我的意思是，如果您能讓我們了解區域和市場的潛在需求。即使全球經濟沒有透過這種似乎在各個地區等領域擴大的反傾銷措施而復甦，你真的能達到高水準的需求嗎？

Yes, thanks, Hassan. It's a great question because when you think about it, there is no shortage of variables out there that are kind of factoring in the answer to that question. But I'll start with your comment on chlorine, right? And that particular supplier that you referenced would be a supplier in the North American market.

是的，謝謝，哈桑。這是一個很好的問題，因為當你思考這個問題時，你會發現不乏變數在某種程度上影響著這個問題的答案。但我首先要談談你對氯的評論，對吧？您提到的那個特定供應商將是北美市場的供應商。

North America was a big part of that, 8%. We talked about 8% growth in TiO2 usage or sales Q1 to Q2. We saw an increase in demand and sales in the Americas. We saw an increase in supply globally. But in the US, I would say, that particular asset is running well above 80%. So I'm not exactly sure how that correlates to that supplier, but our chlorine consumption has not pulled back. Generically, when you just think about the 2% to 4% I talked about in the third-quarter demand growth, last quarter, we kind of gave some general ideas that the third quarter could be up, it could be down, and a lot of that was going to be driven by demand.

北美佔其中很大一部分，佔 8%。我們談到第一季到第二季 TiO2 使用量或銷售額成長了 8%。我們看到美洲的需求和銷量增加。我們看到全球供應量增加。但我想說，在美國，該特定資產的運作率遠高於 80%。所以我不太確定這跟供應商有什麼關係，但我們的氯消耗量並沒有減少。一般來說，當你想到我在上個季度談到的第三季度需求成長2% 到4% 時，我們給出了一些一般性的想法，即第三季度可能會上升，也可能會下降，等等其中將由需求驅動。

So again, the three things that we said we're factoring into this recovery were destocking had run its course, customers were getting back to normal buying patterns, and demand was that other factor. So we didn't see demand pick up as much as we would have maybe initially thought it could have in the third quarter. So 2% to 4% is absolutely in line with what we would see as far as seasonal demand trends.

所以，我們再說一次，我們在這次復甦中考慮的三件事是去庫存已經完成，客戶正在恢復正常的購買模式，而需求是另一個因素。因此，我們沒有看到第三季的需求回升幅度達到我們最初預期的水平。因此，2% 至 4% 絕對符合我們所看到的季節性需求趨勢。

Europe right now, for instance, August is typically a pretty weak month because people are on holiday. We're not seeing that. August seems to be pretty strong. So what's going to happen in September? The order book looks reasonably good for September, but it's still a bit early for that one.

例如，現在的歐洲，八月通常是一個相當疲軟的月份，因為人們正在度假。我們沒有看到這一點。八月似乎相當強勁。那麼九月會發生什麼事呢？九月的訂單看起來相當不錯，但現在還為時過早。

Asia Pacific. India for us, it's an interesting comment because we've had even some internal questions with those exports that went into India, what's happening to our demand there? Our demand is still good in India. We have a very significant position in India, supported by the free trade agreement out of Australia, which provides us, I think, some runway to manage through any kind of maybe pre-positioning of Chinese material, even though there's more exports going into that region.

亞太地區。印度對我們來說，這是一個有趣的評論，因為我們甚至對進入印度的出口產品產生了一些內部問題，我們在那裡的需求發生了什麼？我們在印度的需求仍然很好。我們在印度擁有非常重要的地位，並得到澳大利亞自由貿易協定的支持，我認為，這為我們提供了一些跑道，可以通過任何形式的可能預先定位的中國材料進行管理，儘管有更多的出口進入印度地區。

So it's a bit mixed globally, but when we think about the rest of the year and demand and why we're continuing to ramp up, it is, in fact, to make sure we can hit the demand that we're forecasting. And I made the comment before, we're not back to where we were. 80% capacity utilization is not a recovery by any means. So we've still got some upside. It's a big recovery from a trough of '23, but we've still got some runway to move up.

因此，全球範圍內的情況有點複雜，但當我們考慮今年剩餘時間和需求以及為什麼我們繼續增加時，事實上，這是為了確保我們能夠滿足我們預測的需求。我之前說過，我們沒有回到原來的狀態。 80% 的產能利用率無論如何都不是恢復。所以我們還有一些優勢。這是從 23 年低谷中的一個巨大復甦，但我們仍然有一些上升空間。

Hassan, over the past two years, if you recall, we're down almost 30% from a volume perspective. So year-to-date, we have seen a significant recovery, but still only up 17% versus that roughly 30%. So much more room to grow.

哈桑，如果您還記得的話，過去兩年我們的銷量下降了近 30%。今年迄今為止，我們看到了顯著的復甦，但仍只成長了 17%，而先前的增幅約為 30%。還有更多的成長空間。

And maybe I can sort of try to make you guys put some numbers around that using some of the stuff that you guys have already talked about. In particular, that $25 million to $35 million quarterly hit that you guys talked about from sort of underutilized assets, if that's the right phrase. So let's assume for a second that you guys continue operating at rates that you hit in July, that 80% figure that you guys talked about, would that be enough to recover those $25 million to $35 million worth of headwinds, I guess, at that sort of run rate?

也許我可以嘗試讓你們用你們已經討論過的一些東西來計算一些數字。特別是你們所說的來自未充分利用資產的 2500 萬至 3500 萬美元季度收入（如果這是正確的說法的話）。因此，讓我們假設一下，你們繼續按照你們在 7 月份達到的速度運營，你們談到的 80% 的數字，我想，這是否足以彌補價值 2500 萬至 3500 萬美元的逆風？

Yes.

是的。

There are no further questions at this time. I'll hand the call over to John Romano for closing remarks. Sir, please go ahead.

目前沒有其他問題。我將把電話轉交給約翰·羅馬諾（John Romano）做總結發言。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Our team is highly focused on ensuring we deliver our commitments to our stakeholders, and our vertically integrated business model serves as a differentiator for Tronox by providing security of supply from a global footprint that we can leverage to our customers' advantage and coproducts that contribute significant value to our portfolio. Our results wouldn't be possible without the ongoing efforts of our Tronox team, though, and I'd like to take this opportunity to thank the Tronox team for their dedication to operating safely and their steadfast commitment to fulfilling our customers' needs. I thank you for your support and your interest in Tronox, and that would be the end of the call. Have a nice day.

謝謝你，接線生。我們的團隊高度專注於確保我們兌現對利害關係人的承諾，我們的垂直整​​合業務模式透過提供全球足跡的供應安全性成為Tronox 的差異化因素，我們可以利用這種安全性為客戶帶來優勢，並提供可做出重大貢獻的副產品對我們的投資組合的價值。不過，如果沒有 Tronox 團隊的持續努力，我們的成果就不可能實現，我想藉此機會感謝 Tronox 團隊對安全營運的奉獻以及對滿足客戶需求的堅定承諾。感謝您對 Tronox 的支持與興趣，通話到此結束。祝你今天過得愉快。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you very much for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的會議到此結束。非常感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。