Trinity Industries Inc (TRN) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Trinity Industries first quarter ended March 31, 2026, results conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note today's event is being recorded.

各位好，歡迎參加 Trinity Industries 截至 2026 年 3 月 31 日之第一季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 請注意，今天的活動將被錄音。

Before we get started, let me remind you that today's conference call contains forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and includes statements as to estimates, expectations, intentions and predictions of future financial performance. Statements that are not historical facts are forward-looking. Participants are directed to Trinity's Form 10-K and other SEC filings for a description of certain of the business issues and risks, a change in any of which could cause actual results or outcomes to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements.

在我們開始之前，提醒各位，今天的電話會議包含《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法》所定義的前瞻性陳述，並包括對未來財務表現之估計、預期、意圖與預測等陳述。非歷史事實之陳述均屬前瞻性陳述。請與會者參閱 Trinity 的 Form 10-K 及其他向 SEC 提交之文件，以了解特定業務議題與風險之說明；其中任何變動均可能導致實際結果或結局與前瞻性陳述所表達者存在重大差異。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Leigh Anne Mann, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想把電話會議交給投資人關係副總裁 Leigh Anne Mann。請開始。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us for the company's first quarter 2026 financial results conference call. Our prepared remarks will include comments from Jean Savage, Trinity's Chief Executive Officer and President; and Eric Marchetto, the company's Chief Financial Officer. We will hold a Q&A session following the prepared remarks from our leaders.

謝謝，接線員。各位早安。感謝各位參加本公司 2026 年第一季財務結果電話會議。我們的事先準備發言將包含 Trinity 執行長兼總裁 Jean Savage，以及本公司財務長 Eric Marchetto 的評論。在管理團隊的準備發言結束後，我們將進行問答環節。

During the call today, we will reference certain non-GAAP financial metrics. The reconciliations of the non-GAAP metrics to comparable GAAP measures are provided in the appendix of the quarterly investor slides, which are accessible on our Investor Relations website at www.trin.net. These slides are under the Events and Presentations portion of the website, along with the first quarter earnings conference call event link.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將提及若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。非 GAAP 指標與可比 GAAP 指標之調節表載於季度投資人簡報投影片的附錄，投影片可於我們的投資人關係網站 www.trin.net 取得。這些投影片位於網站的「Events and Presentations」區域，並與第一季財報電話會議活動連結一併提供。

A replay of today's call will be available after 10:30 AM Eastern Time through midnight on May 7, 2026. Replay information is available under the Events and Presentations page on our Investor Relations website.

今天電話會議的重播將於美東時間上午 10:30 之後提供，並可收聽至 2026 年 5 月 7 日午夜。重播資訊可於我們投資人關係網站的「Events and Presentations」頁面查詢。

It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Jean.

現在我很高興把電話會議交給 Jean。

Thank you, Leigh Anne, and good morning, everyone. We grew earnings per share year-over-year 10% in a quarter where revenue was down 16%. That's the operating leverage we've been building toward, and it shows up in a 24.6% adjusted return on equity over the last 12 months. Cash flow from continuing operations was $100 million. The business is performing the way we designed it to perform.

謝謝你，Leigh Anne，各位早安。在本季營收年減 16% 的情況下，我們的每股盈餘（EPS）仍較去年同期成長 10%。這正是我們一直在打造的營運槓桿效益，並反映在過去 12 個月 24.6% 的調整後股東權益報酬率上。持續營運活動產生的現金流為 1 億美元。業務表現符合我們設計的運作方式。

Before I get into results, I want to recognize the team for closing a transaction after the quarter closed related to our railcar investment partnership with Napier Park. As a result of the transaction, approximately 6,100 railcars moved from our partially owned fleet to investor-owned fleet, and we took an 11.2% limited partnership interest in the Napier Park entity that owns the majority of Napier Park's railcar holdings.

在我進入業績之前，我想肯定團隊在季後完成一項交易，該交易與我們與 Napier Park 的鐵路車輛投資合夥關係相關。交易完成後，約 6,100 輛鐵路車輛由我們部分持有的車隊轉移至投資人持有的車隊，而我們取得 Napier Park 實體 11.2% 的有限合夥權益；該實體持有 Napier Park 多數的鐵路車輛資產。

We expect to record a noncash pretax gain of approximately $130 million in the second quarter related to this transaction. This transaction highlights the embedded value of our fleet and is another step in simplifying our balance sheet.

我們預期將於第二季就此交易認列約 1.3 億美元的非現金稅前收益。此交易突顯我們車隊所蘊含的內在價值，也是簡化資產負債表的另一個步驟。

Based on strong first quarter performance and our outlook for the balance of the year, we are raising and tightening our full year EPS guidance from a previous range of $1.85 to $2.10 to a new range of $2.20 to $2.40. At the midpoint, this represents a 16% increase in our EPS expectations.

基於第一季的強勁表現以及我們對今年其餘期間的展望，我們將全年 EPS 指引由先前的 1.85 至 2.10 美元，上調並收斂至新的 2.20 至 2.40 美元區間。以中位數計算，這代表我們對 EPS 的預期提高 16%。

Portfolio sales are an integral part of how our leasing platform creates value, and we now expect a higher level of gain-on-sale activity this year than we originally planned. We expect full year gains to be in the range of $160 million to $180 million, which includes $22 million in the first quarter and approximately $130 million from the railcar investment partnership that we will book in the second quarter. Now let me walk you through what we're seeing in the market.

投資組合出售是我們租賃平台創造價值方式中的重要一環，而我們目前預期今年的出售收益活動水準將高於原先規劃。我們預期全年出售收益將落在 1.6 億至 1.8 億美元區間，其中包含第一季的 2,200 萬美元，以及我們將於第二季入帳、來自鐵路車輛投資合夥交易的約 1.3 億美元。接下來我將帶各位了解我們在市場上看到的情況。

The rail economy is improving. Industrial production grew at an annual rate of 2.4% in the first quarter. The manufacturing PMI, a key monthly economic indicator, was above 50 for 3 straight months. That's the first back-to-back positive reading in over 40 months and has been expanding for 17 straight months. Inquiries have been trending up since the start of the year. Furthermore, railcars and storage moved below 20% as the industry fleet continues to contract and carloads rise.

鐵路景氣正在改善。第一季工業生產以年率計成長 2.4%。製造業 PMI 這項關鍵的月度經濟指標，已連續 3 個月高於 50。這是 40 多個月以來首次連續出現正向讀數，且已連續擴張 17 個月。自年初以來，詢問量呈上升趨勢。此外，隨著產業車隊持續收縮且裝載量上升，閒置與存放中的鐵路車輛比例已降至 20% 以下。

The picture isn't all clean, however, inflation is still elevated and employment has flattened. That continues to weigh on consumer-driven markets, particularly autos and intermodal and tariff uncertainty remains. But the direction is the right one, and we're positioned for it. I'll take you through both segments, starting with leasing and services.

然而，整體情況並非完全明朗；通膨仍處於較高水準，就業成長也已趨於平緩。這持續對消費者驅動型市場造成壓力，尤其是汽車與聯運市場，且關稅不確定性仍在。但方向是正確的，而我們也已為此做好布局。我將帶各位檢視兩個事業部門，先從租賃與服務開始。

Leasing performed. Lease rates were higher, utilization was higher, and the segment delivered a 37.9% operating margin in the quarter. Revenue was down year-over-year, and the reason is structural. We closed a railcar partnership exchange in the fourth quarter, which reduced our consolidated fleet. Our owned fleet ended the quarter at 101,960 railcars, down about 7% year-over-year. But the number that matters strategically is our combined owned and investor-owned fleet at 146,670 railcars, which is up 1.6% year-over-year. We are growing the platform and lease rates continue to rise. Renewal rates were 6.6% above expiring rates in the quarter.

租賃業務表現良好。租賃費率更高、使用率更高，該部門本季繳出 37.9% 的營業利益率。營收較去年同期下滑，其原因屬於結構性因素。我們在第四季完成一項鐵路車輛合夥交換交易，降低了我們的合併車隊規模。我們自有車隊於季末為 101,960 輛鐵路車輛，較去年同期約下降 7%。但在策略上更重要的數字，是我們自有加上投資人持有的合計車隊達 146,670 輛，較去年同期成長 1.6%。我們正在擴大平台規模，且租賃費率持續上升。本季續約費率較到期費率高出 6.6%。

We continue to invest. Net fleet investment was $68 million in the quarter. Over the last six years, we've added more than 18,000 new builds and over 14,000 cars from the secondary market. We were active in the secondary market again this quarter, completing $83 million of lease portfolio sales.

我們持續投資。本季淨車隊投資為 6,800 萬美元。過去六年，我們新增超過 18,000 輛新造車，並自次級市場購入超過 14,000 輛車。本季我們再次積極參與次級市場，完成 8,300 萬美元的租賃投資組合出售。

Fleet utilization improved to 97.3%. Renewal success was 60%, and higher assignment activity allowed us to place cars with new customers at higher rates. The future lease rate differential, or FLRD, was a positive 1.2%. The FLRD has been positive for 19 consecutive quarters, allowing for continuing growth in lease rates and leasing revenue. The average lease rate continued to increase quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.

車隊使用率提升至 97.3%。續約成功率為 60%，而較高的轉租（assignment）活動使我們能以更高費率將車輛配置給新客戶。未來租賃費率差（future lease rate differential，FLRD）為正 1.2%。FLRD 已連續 19 個季度為正，帶動租賃費率與租賃收入持續成長。平均租賃費率持續呈現季增與年增。

Rail Products is where the cost work shows up. We delivered 1,970 railcars at a 7.4% operating margin. On these volumes, that margin is a proof point. It reflects favorable Q1 mix, but more importantly, it reflects several years of rightsizing, automation and breakeven reduction in this business.

鐵路產品部門是成本改善成果最明顯的地方。我們交付了1,970輛鐵路車，營業利益率為7.4%。在這樣的出貨量下，這個利潤率是一個有力的佐證。它反映了第一季有利的產品組合，但更重要的是，它反映了我們在這項業務上經過數年的規模調整、自動化，以及損益兩平點降低。

The cost structure has changed. With the remaining mix of car types to be built, we expect full year Rail Products Group margins to average 5% to 6%. We received orders for 1,660 new railcars. Both orders and deliveries remain within our usual market share range. Inquiries are accelerating, and we're ready to ramp up when inquiries convert to orders.

成本結構已經改變。以剩餘將要生產的車型組合來看，我們預期全年鐵路產品事業群的利潤率平均將落在5%到6%。我們收到1,660輛新鐵路車的訂單。無論是訂單或交付量，仍維持在我們一貫的市占率區間內。詢價正在加速增加，一旦詢價轉為訂單，我們已準備好提升產能。

Backlog stands at $1.6 billion, just under half of the industry backlog. We're not going to chase volume at the wrong price. When the market turns, we'll be there. Here's where we stand.

在手訂單為16億美元，略低於全產業在手訂單的一半。我們不會以不對的價格去追求量。當市場回溫時，我們會在那裡。以下是我們目前的狀況。

We did what we said we'd do this quarter. Margins held up. The fleet is in good shape at 97.3% utilization, lease rates moved in our direction and Rail Products delivered a 7.4% operating margin on lower volumes, which is evidence that the cost work we've done over the past several years is paying off. The order book is the watch item. Inquiries are picking up, and we're ready when customers are ready. I'm proud of how this team is executing, and I'm confident in where we're headed.

本季我們做到了我們說要做的事。利潤率維持穩健。車隊狀況良好，使用率達97.3%；租賃費率朝有利於我們的方向變動；而鐵路產品在較低出貨量下仍交出7.4%的營業利益率，這證明我們過去幾年所做的成本改善正在發揮成效。訂單量是需要關注的項目。詢價正在回升，客戶準備好時我們也準備好了。我為這個團隊的執行力感到自豪，也對我們前進的方向充滿信心。

Eric will take you through the financials and our guidance for the rest of the year.

接下來Eric將帶各位檢視財務表現，以及我們對今年剩餘期間的指引。

Thank you, Jean, and good morning, everyone. I will begin by discussing our first quarter financial highlights. Our operating margins expanded in both segments. Cash generation was strong at $100 million from continuing operations. Our business is generating good returns and is proving its ability to outperform the market through the cycle. We have $1.1 billion of liquidity, and we continue to return capital to shareholders.

謝謝你，Jean，各位早安。我先從第一季財務重點開始說明。我們兩個事業部門的營業利益率都擴大。持續營運的現金創造強勁，達1億美元。我們的業務正在創造良好報酬，並證明其在景氣循環中具備優於市場的表現能力。我們擁有11億美元的流動性，並持續回饋資本給股東。

Let me walk you through the income statement, cash flow and balance sheet, and then I'll cover guidance for the rest of the year. First quarter revenues of $492 million reflected lower external deliveries in the Rail Products Group. However, as Jean mentioned, GAAP EPS from continuing operations improved as compared to last year to $0.32, which reflects higher gains on lease portfolio sales and higher lease rates, generating higher operating margins. We generated proceeds of $83 million in the quarter from lease portfolio sales and recorded a gain of $22 million.

我將帶各位依序看損益表、現金流量表與資產負債表，接著說明今年剩餘期間的指引。第一季營收為4.92億美元，反映鐵路產品事業群對外交付量較低。不過如Jean所提，持續營運的GAAP每股盈餘較去年提升至0.32美元，主要反映租賃資產組合出售的處分利益較高，以及租賃費率較高，帶動營業利益率提升。本季我們透過租賃資產組合出售取得8,300萬美元的收入，並認列2,200萬美元的處分利益。

Moving to the cash flow statement. Cash flow from continuing operations was $100 million, benefited from a reduction in working capital. Our total net fleet investment was $68 million in the quarter, which included new railcar additions, secondary market adds and fleet modifications and betterments. This includes $83 million of railcar sales in the secondary market. Shareholder returns were $32 million in the quarter, largely driven by our quarterly dividend payment as well as share repurchases.

接著看現金流量表。持續營運的營業現金流為1億美元，受惠於營運資金下降。本季車隊淨投資總額為6,800萬美元，包含新增鐵路車、次級市場增購，以及車隊改裝與改善。其中包含在次級市場出售鐵路車的8,300萬美元。本季股東回饋為3,200萬美元，主要來自季度股利發放以及庫藏股回購。

For the 3-year period 2024 to 2026, we set a target for our cash flow metric, which adds cash flow from continuing operations and net gains on portfolio sales of $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion. With three quarters remaining in the planning period, we expect to exceed this range. That is a significant amount of cash generation, and we are constantly working to make optimal choices on how we grow our fleet and improve the returns of our business. Moving to our balance sheet.

針對2024年至2026年的三年期間，我們為現金流指標設定目標：將持續營運的現金流加上資產組合出售的淨處分利益，合計達12億至14億美元。在規劃期間尚餘三個季度的情況下，我們預期將超越此區間。這代表相當可觀的現金創造能力；我們也持續努力，在如何擴大車隊與提升業務報酬方面做出最佳選擇。接著看資產負債表。

We have solid liquidity of $1.1 billion. The loan-to-value for our wholly owned fleet is 69.1%. It is worth noting that the market value of our fleet is much higher than the book value of our fleet, and our LTV is based on the net book value. The debt structure on our balance sheet gives us significant flexibility and liquidity as we execute on our capital allocation framework demonstrated by our latest financing. After the quarter closed, we issued $481 million of ABS notes and used the proceeds to redeem $377 million in outstanding debt, generating approximately $100 million of excess cash, providing further evidence of our cash generation abilities. And now, I'd like to give some updated guidance for the rest of the year.

我們擁有穩健的流動性，達11億美元。我們全資自有車隊的貸款價值比（LTV）為69.1%。值得注意的是，我們車隊的市場價值遠高於帳面價值，而我們的LTV是以淨帳面價值為基礎計算。資產負債表上的負債結構，讓我們在執行資本配置框架時具備顯著的彈性與流動性，這也可從我們最新的融資案看出。在季末結束後，我們發行了4.81億美元的ABS票據，並以所得款項償還3.77億美元的未償債務，創造約1億美元的超額現金，進一步證明我們的現金創造能力。接下來，我想提供今年剩餘期間的最新指引。

We expect industry deliveries of 25,000 railcars in 2026 and expect Trinity to maintain its historical share of deliveries. While there are still some available space to be sold for the end of 2026, current inquiry levels support maintaining this guidance. We are slightly lowering our expected full year net lease fleet investment to a range of $350 million to $450 million, reflecting expected higher proceeds from railcar sales. As a reminder, this is a cash metric. So this would not include the sale of railcars in the Napier Park RIV program.

我們預期2026年全產業交付量為25,000輛鐵路車，並預期Trinity維持其歷史交付市占率。雖然2026年年底仍有一些可供銷售的產能空間，但目前的詢價水準支持我們維持此一指引。我們將全年淨租賃車隊投資預期小幅下調至3.5億至4.5億美元區間，反映預期鐵路車出售收入將更高。提醒各位，這是一項現金指標。因此不包含Napier Park RIV計畫中的鐵路車出售。

We are investing $55 million to $65 million in operating and administrative capital expenditures. And as Jean mentioned, we are raising our full year EPS guidance to a range of $2.20 to $2.40, a 16% increase at the midpoint. This comes from higher-than-expected gains in the railcar partnership transaction as well as higher forecasted gains from the secondary market. We expect full year gains to be in the range of $160 million to $180 million.

我們將投入5,500萬至6,500萬美元於營運及行政資本支出。此外，如Jean所提，我們將全年每股盈餘（EPS）指引上調至2.20至2.40美元區間，中位數上調16%。這主要來自鐵路車合夥交易的處分利益高於預期，以及次級市場預測處分利益提高。我們預期全年處分利益將落在1.6億至1.8億美元區間。

Our first quarter demonstrates the operating leverage we've been building. The business is built to perform throughout the cycle. Our disciplined cash flow management and optimized balance sheet give us flexibility in capital allocation and working capital management. Our lease fleet utilization is high, generating consistent, predictable revenue and cash flow. In short, our platform is performing and today's results and 2026 guidance reflect our conviction in Trinity's ability to continue to generate above-market returns for our shareholders.

第一季展現了我們持續建立的營運槓桿。這項業務的設計可在整個景氣循環中維持表現。我們嚴謹的現金流管理與最佳化的資產負債表，使我們在資本配置與營運資金管理上具備彈性。我們的租賃車隊使用率高，帶來穩定、可預測的營收與現金流。總結來說，我們的平台運作良好；而今日的成果與2026年指引，反映我們對Trinity持續為股東創造高於市場報酬能力的信念。

Operator, we are now ready for our first question.

接線員，我們現在準備開始第一個提問。

(Operator Instructions) Harrison Bauer, Susquehanna.

(接線員指示) Harrison Bauer，Susquehanna。

Thanks for taking my question today. Maybe just to start off with the gains. I mean, backing into what you did in the first quarter and what's expected from the transaction in the second quarter, there's only a range of $10 million to $30 million in terms of gains for the rest of the year in the second half and maybe excluding the deal in the second quarter. So could you just maybe walk through where you think there might be some declines in secondary market activity? Like what's maybe one of the reasons why that you would expect lower gains in the second half of the year potentially?

謝謝讓我今天提問。我想先從處分利益談起。我的意思是，回推你們第一季的表現，以及第二季交易預期帶來的影響，若看今年下半年、並且可能排除第二季那筆交易，其餘期間的處分利益區間只有1,000萬到3,000萬美元。所以你能否說明一下，你認為次級市場活動可能在哪些方面出現下滑？例如，你們預期下半年處分利益可能較低的原因之一會是什麼？

Good morning, Harrison. This is Eric. I'll take that. Yes, as you know, the gains can be a little lumpy, and certainly in the second quarter with the Tribute transaction that they will be a little lumpier. In terms of -- you're right, in terms of the guidance, it does imply a lower level of gains in the back half of the year. And I'd just say it is still a very elevated number.

早安，Harrison。我是 Eric。我來回答這題。是的，如你所知，處分收益可能會有些不均勻波動，而第二季因為 Tribute 這筆交易，波動會更明顯一些。就——你說得對——就指引而言，確實意味著今年下半年收益水準會較低。但我想補充的是，這仍然是一個非常高的數字。

We are really focused on our net fleet adds and our growth of our fleet, and we're in the range or the upper range of our 3-year target. We did bring that down this quarter by $100 million, which reflects a little more selling activity out of the portfolio. And most of the raise -- with the raise is certainly attributable to the gain -- our outlook on gains going forward. But overall, the secondary market is still strong.

我們非常專注於淨車隊新增量以及車隊成長，而且目前落在我們三年目標的區間內或偏上緣。本季我們把這個數字下調了 1 億美元，反映出投資組合中有更多一些的出售活動。而上調——這次上調當然主要歸因於收益——也就是我們對未來收益的展望。但整體而言，次級市場仍然強勁。

Understood. Can you give us maybe a sense of where that transaction with Napier Park ended up relative to your initial expectations in terms of either the structure or the amount of the noncash gain that you expect?

了解。你們能否大概說明一下，與 Napier Park 的那筆交易最終結果相對於你們最初的預期如何——不論是在結構上，或是你們預期的非現金收益金額方面？

First, on the structure, the structure is a little different than the last one. We took an 11% interest in all of the Napier assets. It was -- they're both structured as noncash. But certainly, we like having that alignment of that interest in the broader portfolio. It will be a little different accounting. It will be equity method accounting going forward. And so you won't have the minority interest. So from that standpoint, it will simplify things.

首先，就結構而言，這次的結構和上一筆有些不同。我們取得了 Napier 資產整體的 11% 權益。它——兩筆交易都是以非現金方式架構。但我們確實喜歡在更廣泛的投資組合中持有這樣的權益，以達到一致的利益對齊。會有些不同的會計處理。未來將採用權益法會計。因此你不會看到少數股權。從這個角度來看，會讓事情更簡化。

In terms of our expectations, in our fourth quarter earnings call, we had not -- we signaled this. It was included in our guidance, but we certainly didn't have anything completed at that point. And part of the raise is attributed to a higher gain with the Napier Park transaction. But it came in a little better than we expected, and that was just through our negotiations.

就我們的預期而言，在第四季財報電話會議時，我們尚未——我們有釋放這個訊號。它已納入我們的指引，但當時我們確實還沒有完成任何事項。而這次上調的一部分，歸因於 Napier Park 交易帶來較高的收益。不過結果比我們預期稍好一些，這主要來自我們談判的成果。

Okay. Great. Maybe just shifting to the FLRD. Obviously, that number trended down a little bit. There's some mix -- it is forward-looking, but -- and there are some mix dynamics. Could you maybe paint a picture how you would expect or could expect earnings in the leasing segment to potentially grow even if your renewal rates tend to flatten out? You called out some cost pressures in that business. And maybe if you can offer how you would expect the FLRD to maybe trend with gains or level of secondary market over time if the stagnation in that number might also correlate with some just general lower secondary market activity.

好的。很棒。或許把焦點轉到 FLRD。很明顯，那個數字略有下滑。其中有一些組合因素——它是前瞻性的，但——也確實存在一些組合動態。你能否描繪一下，即使續約率趨於持平，你們預期租賃部門的獲利仍可能如何成長？你提到該業務有一些成本壓力。另外，如果可以的話，也請談談：若該數字停滯可能也與整體次級市場活動下降有關，那麼隨著時間推移，在收益或次級市場水準變化下，你們預期 FLRD 可能會如何走勢？

Sure. I'll take that one. So when you look at the FLRD, we stated it has been positive for the 19 consecutive quarters. And so, that's a good trend. Utilization went up to 97.3%. Cars and storage went down. Inflation is still high. So overall, the parameters around our lease rate are still positive. We had a 6.6% uptick in the renewal rate versus expiring rate in the quarter. Our average lease rate went up quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. So all of those are still trending in the right direction.

當然。我來回答這題。就 FLRD 而言，我們提到它已連續 19 個季度為正。所以這是一個不錯的趨勢。使用率上升到 97.3%。閒置車輛與存放量下降。通膨仍然偏高。因此整體來看，圍繞我們租賃利率的各項參數仍然是正向的。本季續約利率相較到期利率上升了 6.6%。我們的平均租賃利率較前一季與去年同期都有上升。所以這些都仍朝正確方向發展。

In the first quarter, we did have a little bit of a mix that affected us. If I was a betting person, I bet we're going to beat that percentage going forward. So it really comes down to the mix of cars and then what's expiring in the next four quarters. Sometimes the mix helps us, sometimes it brings it down a little bit. But we still see headroom for increasing the overall lease rates, especially since new car costs are continuing to be elevated, and that gives us some of that headroom.

第一季我們確實有一些組合因素對我們造成了些影響。如果我要下注的話，我會押注未來我們會優於這個百分比。這主要取決於車輛組合，以及未來四個季度到期的合約內容。有時組合會幫助我們，有時則會讓它略微下降。但我們仍看到整體租賃利率有上調空間，尤其是新車成本仍維持在高檔，這也給了我們一些上調空間。

Okay. Great. Thanks for the color. And then maybe just to close for me, just shifting over, and you mentioned elevated new car costs and shifting over to the manufacturing segment. And it's nice to see the results strong there in an elevated or in a lower rather delivery environment. But could you maybe give us some updated thoughts around the recent Section 232 tariffs on full value of imported tank cars? What are the implications for your business? If there's any costs associated that are factored into your guidance at all?

好的。很棒。謝謝你的補充說明。最後我想再轉一下，你提到新車成本偏高，轉到製造部門。在交付環境偏高——不，是偏低的情況下，看到那邊的結果仍然強勁，這很好。但你能否更新一下你們對近期針對進口槽車全額價值課徵的《232 條款》關稅的看法？這對你們業務有何影響？是否有任何相關成本已被納入你們的指引？

And maybe just with that, if you can update us on your tank car production mix, how much of it might be produced in your Longview plant versus Mexico? And just any general thoughts around your tank car production and what this potential tariff might mean for your business. Thank you.

另外，關於這點，如果可以的話，也請更新你們的槽車產量組合：其中有多少可能是在你們的 Longview 工廠生產、多少在墨西哥？以及對你們槽車生產的整體看法，還有這項潛在關稅可能對你們業務意味著什麼。謝謝。

Sure. So we've been dealing with the uncertainty of tariffs for a while now, and the team has gotten really good at looking at that. We'll continue to look and see what may affect us, how it may affect us and then adjust what we're doing based off of that information that we find. So uncertainty remains. I don't see that going away. So just know, team is on it, and they've done a great job so far working on that.

當然。我們已經因應關稅不確定性一段時間了，團隊在評估這些影響方面做得非常好。我們會持續觀察哪些因素可能影響我們、會如何影響我們，並根據我們取得的資訊調整我們正在做的事情。所以不確定性仍在。我不認為它會消失。所以請放心，團隊正在處理，而且到目前為止他們在這方面做得很出色。

We typically don't disclose what percentage of cars are being produced where. So we're not going to do that. But we're still continuing with the 25,000 industry deliveries for the year and our portion of that in our normal range, which is somewhere between 30% and 40%. So not a lot of major changes on that.

我們通常不會揭露各地生產的車輛比例。所以我們不會提供這個。但我們仍維持全年產業交付量 25,000 輛的預期，以及我們在其中的份額仍在正常區間，也就是大約 30% 到 40% 之間。因此在這方面沒有太多重大變化。

Andrzej Tomczyk, Goldman Sachs.

Goldman Sachs 的 Andrzej Tomczyk。

Thanks. Everybody, good morning. Just kind of curious on leasing to start out. First, maybe just more broadly in the context of a potentially sticky inflation environment, particularly given higher energy prices globally more recently. How do you communicate with customers who lease railcars from you currently, the asset prices are higher? And are you thinking ahead to the next wave of re-signing leases and expecting another positive cycle of growing lease rates and positive to potentially reaccelerating the FLRD?

謝謝。各位早安。我想先從租賃談起。首先，從更宏觀的角度，在通膨可能更具黏著性的環境下——尤其是考量到近期全球能源價格走高——你們如何與目前向你們租用鐵路車輛的客戶溝通：資產價格已經更高了？以及你們是否已在為下一波續簽租約做準備，並預期會再迎來一個租賃利率成長的正向循環，進而讓 FLRD 維持正向甚至可能重新加速？

Okay. Andrzej, I'll take that one. Well, the last question I did say, if I was a betting person, I would bet it'd be above the 1.2%. It really comes down to the mix in that quarter and what it's going to show. When we're looking at overall the environment, again, the metrics are in favor of being able to continue to raise the lease rates.

好的。Andrzej，這題我來回答。嗯，我在上一個問題也提到，如果我是會下注的人，我會押它會高於 1.2%。這真的取決於該季度的組合，以及它將呈現出什麼。當我們整體看環境時，再次強調，各項指標都有利於我們能夠持續調升租賃費率。

Now we are lapping some rates that had already been raised during this time period, during that 19 consecutive quarters of positive FLRD. So we're going to keep that in mind. But overall, all the things we're looking at, agriculture and energy markets are really strong.

現在我們也正好在「追平」一些在這段期間已經調升過的費率，也就是那 19 個連續季度 FLRD 為正的期間。所以我們會把這點納入考量。但整體而言，我們所觀察的各項因素中，農業與能源市場都非常強勁。

If I look at some of the weaker markets in chemical, it's weaker not from carloads, but it's weaker from their margins. And so, there's a little bit of weakness there and then consumer products, which we don't have a lot of cars in our fleet that are the consumer-facing type products. So overall, when we look at our mix, we still see an opportunity to raise those rates.

如果我看一些較疲弱的市場，例如化學品，疲弱並不是來自裝載量（carloads），而是來自它們的利潤率。因此那裡有一點疲弱；另外是消費性產品，而我們車隊中屬於面向消費者類型產品的車輛其實不多。所以整體來看，當我們檢視組合時，仍然看到調升這些費率的機會。

Andrzej, I'd just add, the energy prices you're alluding to, I'm assuming is related to oil and what's going on in Iran. And while that is starting to come through in some of our supply chain costs, we probably haven't worked it all the way through. So if that continues, I think you're leading to that could be a next wave of inflationary pressures. And it certainly could -- the interest rates are starting to signal that as well with what treasuries are doing. So the fleet remains very tight. It's in balance. And so, that would -- that will start to potentially price through in the future.

Andrzej，我再補充一下，你提到的能源價格，我猜是和原油以及伊朗那邊的情勢有關。雖然這已開始反映在我們部分供應鏈成本上，但我們可能還沒有完全把它消化完。所以如果這種情況持續，我認為你是在暗示這可能會成為下一波通膨壓力。而且確實也可能——利率也開始透過公債市場的走勢釋放出同樣的訊號。因此車隊供給仍然非常吃緊。目前是供需平衡的。所以，這——未來可能會開始反映到價格上。

Understood. And I think last call, you talked about the market value of your fleet and that that's, I think, 40% to 50% above book value. Any updates to those numbers? And the other question there is, have you looked at that historically to determine sort of on average, how much the market values exceed book values? Just trying to get a sense for market value versus book value this cycle, how that dynamic might be different?

了解。我記得上次電話會議你提到你們車隊的市價，大概比帳面價值高出 40% 到 50%。這些數字有更新嗎？另外一個問題是，你們是否有做過歷史回溯，來判斷平均而言市價通常會比帳面價值高出多少？我只是想了解在這一輪景氣循環中，市價相對帳面價值的差距，這種動態是否有所不同？

Yes, Andrzej, this is Eric. So we talked -- last quarter, we talked about our estimate was 35% to 45% higher than our carrying value. We have not updated that view. That is still our view. In terms of -- if you go back over the last four or five years, you've had more inflation in this industry than if you go back even the prior five years. And so, it probably has accelerated. I haven't gone back and back tested it, but certainly, it has trended higher the inflation rates.

是的，Andrzej，我是 Eric。我們上季談到——我們的估計是比我們的帳面持有價值高出 35% 到 45%。我們尚未更新這個看法。目前仍是這樣的看法。就——如果你回看過去四到五年，相較於再往前的五年，這個產業的通膨更高。因此它可能是加速了。我沒有回去做回測，但可以確定的是，通膨率的趨勢確實走高。

But just to mention, with long term, we see 3% to 4% inflation in railcar asset prices. And long term, we've seen lower inflation in lease rates at 1% to 2%. So that does imply that there is still a lot of room for lease rates to catch up, if you will, to what we've seen on the asset side. And certainly, financing costs and treasury rates certainly support our view that that will happen over time.

不過補充一下，長期來看，我們看到鐵路車輛資產價格的通膨約為 3% 到 4%。而長期來看，租賃費率的通膨較低，約為 1% 到 2%。因此這意味著，如果你這麼說的話，租賃費率仍有很大的空間去追上我們在資產端所看到的漲幅。而且融資成本與公債殖利率也確實支持我們的看法：隨著時間推移，這將會發生。

Understood. Just on that last point on leasing, how are you thinking about the spread sort of between lease rates and your cost of capital today? And maybe looking forward, how that's influencing your appetite to grow the lease fleet?

了解。就你剛才關於租賃的最後一點，你們目前如何看待租賃費率與你們資本成本之間的利差？以及展望未來，這如何影響你們擴大租賃車隊的意願？

I don't think our -- we are always evaluating our hurdle rates against our weighted average cost of capital. It certainly -- it changes often with the volatility you've seen, especially in the treasury rates. But in terms of the spread over our weighted average cost of capital, we're being fairly consistent around that. It may vary by different car types, but we are certainly seeing that. And we're seeing a fairly disciplined lease pricing in the market. So that's good.

我不認為我們——我們一直都在用加權平均資本成本（WACC）來評估我們的門檻報酬率。在你看到的波動之下，它確實——會經常變動，尤其是公債利率的波動。但就相對於我們加權平均資本成本的利差而言，我們在這方面維持相當一致。不同車型可能會有所差異，但我們確實看到這樣的情況。而且我們也看到市場上的租賃定價相當有紀律。所以這是好事。

Okay. Got it. And maybe shifting gears a little bit to the manufacturing side. It did seem like a really nice margin performance there despite volumes down 36%. You improved EBIT margin, 120 bps year-over-year. Could you just talk a little bit more about the cost takeout initiatives there as to what's driving that? And then also maybe why you would still expect the 5% to 6% full year average margins given the sort of 1Q outperformance there?

好的。了解。那我稍微換個話題到製造端。儘管出貨量下滑 36%，那邊的毛利表現看起來仍相當不錯。你們的 EBIT 利潤率年增改善 120 個基點。能否再多談一些你們的成本削減（cost takeout）措施，是什麼在推動這個改善？另外，考量到第一季表現優於預期，為什麼你們仍預期全年平均利潤率為 5% 到 6%？

Sure. I'll take that one. So first on the cost initiatives. Team has done a great job for several years working on continuous improvement, reducing setup time, automation that we're putting into the facility. All of that comes together to help us with both efficiency and overall productivity for those facilities. And that work continues. We're always looking to see what else we can do help us from a safety and productivity standpoint.

當然。這題我來回答。先談成本措施。團隊多年來在持續改善方面做得非常好，包括縮短換線/設定時間、以及我們在廠內導入的自動化。這些都整合在一起，幫助我們提升效率與整體生產力。而這些工作仍在持續。我們一直在尋找還能做些什麼，從安全與生產力的角度來幫助我們。

When you look at Q1, we had some favorable mix. We had more specialty cars that we produced in that quarter. And the second through the fourth quarter, we're expecting more standards, so less specialty cars that are going to be produced. And looking at where we're at, 5% to 6% performance at these volume shows a structural change in our facilities and our ability to produce.

看第一季的話，我們有一些有利的產品組合。那一季我們生產了較多特種車。而第二到第四季，我們預期會有更多標準車，因此將生產較少特種車。以我們目前的狀況來看，在這樣的產量水準下能做到 5% 到 6% 的表現，顯示我們的廠房結構與生產能力已出現結構性改變。

So that is something I'm very happy with and something that we've been talking about for several years to you all about things we were going to do. It's lowered that breakeven cost for us. So I think the operations, Rail Products Group is performing very well. And when we get some volume back, I think you're going to see that leverage come through.

所以這是我非常滿意的一點，也是在過去幾年我們一直跟各位談到、我們將要做的事情。它降低了我們的損益兩平成本。因此我認為營運面上，Rail Products Group 的表現非常好。而當產量回升時，我認為你們會看到那種營運槓桿效益顯現出來。

Understood. Thanks for clarifying that there. And just on the headcount, I was curious in manufacturing. I know that doesn't get talked about often on the call, but could you maybe talk about where headcount is at today versus may, say, the peak? And then following on to that, I was curious to know what the lag might be to hiring and bringing new labor online relative to when you sort of see orders and backlog start to improve?

了解。謝謝你在這裡釐清。另外關於人力編制，我對製造端的人數有點好奇。我知道這在電話會議上不常被提到，但你們能否談談目前的人力編制相較於例如高峰期大概是什麼水準？接著延伸來問，我也想了解當你們看到訂單與在手訂單（backlog）開始改善時，招募並讓新勞動力到位，通常會有多大的時間落後（lag）？

Sure. So a couple of things. Typically, when orders or backlog come up and the production rate has to improve, we'll go to overtime to start with, and that's about a 20% to 30% uptick that you can get from that. The other good thing we've got in our favor is during the downturn, a lot of the employees, many of them said that they want to come back. So when we start rehiring, we'll go to those employees first.

當然。所以有幾點。通常，當訂單或在手訂單量增加、而生產速率必須提升時，我們一開始會先採取加班，這大約可以帶來20%到30%的提升幅度。另外一個對我們有利的因素是，在景氣下行期間，很多員工——其中不少人——表示他們想回來。所以當我們開始重新招募時，會先找那些員工。

Now that doesn't mean they come in and they're 100% productive right away. We'll have to go through some retraining. There will be the time to get their efficiency back up as they get used to where they're working on the lines. But we think we'll have an easier time getting those employees and getting them back into the factory. So we see the ability to move a little quicker than we did coming out of COVID and getting production rates up.

當然，這不代表他們一進來就能立刻達到100%的生產力。我們必須進行一些再訓練。隨著他們重新適應產線上的工作位置，效率回升也需要時間。但我們認為，找回這些員工並讓他們回到工廠會相對容易。因此我們看到，相較於COVID之後復甦時，我們有能力更快把生產速率拉上來。

When you look at where we were several years ago, I'm just going to do total employment for the company. We were about 10,000 employees. And right now, it's closer to 6,000 employees. So a lot of that would have been in the production space in that change in that swing.

如果你回頭看幾年前的狀況，我先以公司總員工數來說。我們當時大約有10,000名員工。而現在更接近6,000名員工。所以這個變動與波動中，有很大一部分發生在生產端的人力。

Some of that, again, though, coming out of COVID was new employees coming in who had never worked in the industry. So you had to hire more to get over that efficiency and productivity increase that we needed. And I think it will be less than that as we ramp back up for the next increase in volume.

另外，COVID之後復甦時，有一部分是新進員工，他們以前從未在這個產業工作過。因此你必須招募更多人，才能達到我們所需要的效率與生產力提升。而我認為，當我們為下一波量能增加而重新拉升產能時，所需的人力增幅會比當時更少。

Understood. And I appreciate the color there. Maybe just for me to close off two final questions. One was just what's the earliest sort of indicator that you guys are watching internally that would tell you demand is going to inflect either positively or negatively soon, hopefully, positively? I know ISM has done better recently, maybe historically, that's a good indicator. Anything just specific that you guys are tracking want to call out? So that's the first.

了解。也謝謝你提供這些補充說明。我這邊最後想用兩個問題作結。第一個是，你們內部正在觀察的、最早期的指標是什麼？能夠提示需求很快會出現正向或負向的拐點——希望是正向。我知道ISM最近表現較好，或許歷史上那是個不錯的指標。你們有沒有任何特別在追蹤、想特別點出的指標？這是第一個。

And then secondly, just looking ahead, the $160 million to $180 million of gains this year, is that sustainable sort of on an annual basis if we look beyond 2026? Thanks, everybody. Appreciate the time.

第二個是，往前看，今年1.6億到1.8億美元的處分收益（gains），如果我們看2026年之後，這種水準是否能以年度基礎持續？謝謝各位。感謝撥冗。

Sure. So you mentioned a couple of key metrics we're watching, but utilization is one, the tightness in the market overall, so for the industry, cars and storage. Then when you go to the inquiry levels, and we were positive since the first of the year, inquiry levels have picked up. Now they do have to convert to orders. But the first quarter, we had -- saw some of that conversion. We're having positive conversations again this quarter. So looking at that, we see positive signs that the volume could move.

好的。你提到幾個我們在看的關鍵指標，其中之一是產能利用率，以及整體市場的緊俏程度——就產業而言，包括車輛與儲存。接著看詢問（inquiry）水準，我們自年初以來一直是正向的，詢問量已經回升。當然，這些仍需要轉換成訂單。但在第一季，我們看到其中一部分已經完成轉換。本季我們也再次進行了正向的對話。因此從這些面向來看，我們看到一些正向訊號，顯示量能可能會上來。

When you look at PMI, when you're looking at the manufacturing indexes, we closely follow that. So all of those are good indicators for you to watch to say we think things look positive. We still have to see the order rate get up to get us back to what we thought next year might be closer to 30,000 or 35,000 industry builds.

至於PMI、製造業指數，我們也密切追蹤。所以這些都是你可以關注的良好指標，用來判斷我們認為情勢看起來是正向的。不過我們仍需要看到訂單速度提升，才能讓我們回到我們原先預期明年可能更接近產業整體30,000到35,000輛的建造量。

When you go to the second question...

至於第二個問題……

Gains.

收益。

Gains, okay. On the gains, we're not going to talk a lot about '27. But when you look at the fact that selling in the secondary market and buying in the secondary market are integral to the way we run our business, I would expect that you're going to see us in some form doing both of those every year. When we get closer to '27, we'll give you more guidance on what we think will happen in 2027.

收益，好的。關於收益，我們不會太多談到'27。但考量到在次級市場出售與在次級市場買入，是我們營運方式中不可或缺的一部分，我預期你們會看到我們每年都會以某種形式進行這兩件事。等我們更接近'27時，我們會提供更多指引，說明我們認為2027年會發生什麼。

That was the last question.

那是最後一個問題。

Well, thank you for joining us today. Our first quarter results highlight the operating leverage we've been building and the progress we're making across the business. We remain focused on what got us here, disciplined execution, delivering for our customers and creating value for our shareholders. Thank you for your continued interest in Trinity.

感謝各位今天加入我們。我們第一季的結果凸顯了我們持續建立的營運槓桿，以及我們在整個業務上取得的進展。我們仍專注於讓我們走到今天的關鍵：紀律執行、為客戶交付成果，並為股東創造價值。感謝各位持續關注Trinity。

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now over. Thank you for choosing Chorus Call, and thank you for participating in the conference. You may now disconnect your lines. Goodbye.

各位女士、先生，電話會議現在結束。感謝您選擇Chorus Call，也感謝您參與本次會議。您現在可以掛斷電話線。再見。