Trinity Industries Inc (TRN) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Trinity Industries second-quarter ended June 30, 2024, results conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please also note today's event is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加 Trinity Industries 截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日的第二季業績電話會議。（操作員說明）也請注意今天的活動正在錄製中。

Before we get started, let me remind you that today's conference call contains forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and includes statements as to estimates, expectations, intentions, and predictions of future financial performance. Statements that are not historical facts are forward-looking. Participants are directed to Trinity's Form 10-K and other SEC filings for a description of certain -- of the business issues and risks, a change in any of which could cause actual results or outcomes to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements.

在我們開始之前，讓我提醒您，今天的電話會議包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》所定義的前瞻性陳述，包括有關未來財務業績的估計、預期、意圖和預測的陳述。非歷史事實的陳述屬於前瞻性陳述。參與者應參閱Trinity 的10-K 表格和其他SEC 文件，以了解某些業務問題和風險的描述，其中任何一項的變化都可能導致實際結果或結果與前瞻性陳述中表達的結果有重大差異。

At this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Leigh Anne Mann, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想請投資人關係副總裁 Leigh Anne Mann 發言。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us for the company's second-quarter 2024 financial results conference call.

謝謝你，接線生。大家早安。我們感謝您參加本公司 2024 年第二季財務業績電話會議。

Our prepared remarks will include comments from Jean Savage, Trinity's Chief Executive Officer and President; and Eric Marchetto, the company's Chief Financial Officer. We will hold a Q&A session following the prepared remarks from our leaders.

我們準備好的演講將包括 Trinity 執行長兼總裁 Jean Savage 的評論；以及該公司財務長埃里克·馬爾凱托(Eric Marchetto)。我們將在領導人準備好的演講後舉行問答環節。

During the call today, we'll reference certain non-GAAP financial metrics. The reconciliations of the non-GAAP metrics to comparable GAAP measures are provided in the appendix of the quarterly investor slides, which are accessible on our Investor Relations website at www.trin.net. These slides are under the Events and Presentations portion of the website, along with the second quarter earnings conference call event link. A replay of today's call will be available after 10:30 AM Eastern Time through midnight on August 8, 2024. Replay information is available under the Events & Presentations page on our Investor Relations website.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。季度投資者幻燈片的附錄中提供了非 GAAP 指標與可比較 GAAP 衡量指標的調整表，可在我們的投資者關係網站 www.trin.net 上存取該投影片。這些幻燈片位於網站的「活動和簡報」部分，以及第二季收益電話會議活動連結。今天的電話會議將於 2024 年 8 月 8 日東部時間上午 10:30 至午夜之後重播。重播資訊可在我們投資者關係網站的「活動和演示」頁面下找到。

Before I turn the call to Jean, I wanted to remind you that Trinity completed our 2024 Investor Day on June 25. The replay of that webcast is also available under the Events and Presentations page on our Investor Relations website. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Jean.

在打電話給 Jean 之前，我想提醒您，Trinity 已於 6 月 25 日結束了 2024 年投資者日活動。這個網路廣播的重播也可以在我們的投資者關係網站的活動和演示頁面下找到。現在我很高興將電話轉給吉恩。

Thank you, Leigh Anne, and good morning, everyone. Seeing some of you in person to our Investor Day in June was great. I encourage you to watch the webcast as it lays out our longer-term priorities over the next several years and our progress since our last event in 2020. We believe we have an unmatched rail platform that provides a full suite of customer solutions and will ultimately drive higher shareholder returns. We are a premier railcar leasing company with a platform of integrated rail capabilities to support our lease fleet and serve our customers.

謝謝你，利安妮，大家早安。在六月的投資者日見到你們中的一些人真是太棒了。我鼓勵您觀看網路廣播，因為它列出了我們未來幾年的長期優先事項以及自 2020 年上次活動以來我們取得的進展。我們相信，我們擁有無與倫比的鐵路平台，可以提供全套客戶解決方案，最終將帶來更高的股東回報。我們是一家一流的軌道車租賃公司，擁有綜合鐵路功能平台來支援我們的租賃車隊並服務我們的客戶。

One of the messages we wanted to convey at our Investor Day was our ability to optimize life cycle returns due to a less volatile operating environment, combined with the reduced cyclicality of our platform. Our strong performance in the second quarter highlights the stability and showcases significant improvement and durability of margins across our business. Here are a few key points before we get into the details.

我們想在投資者日傳達的訊息之一是，由於營運環境波動較小，加上我們平台的周期性降低，我們有能力優化生命週期回報。我們第二季的強勁表現凸顯了我們業務的穩定性，並展示了利潤率的顯著改善和持久性。在我們詳細介紹之前，先介紹幾個要點。

First, we earned GAAP EPS of $0.67 and adjusted EPS of $0.66, which is up $0.33 sequentially and $0.43 year-over-year on an adjusted basis. Second, revenues are up 16% year-over-year, and operating profit is up 43% year over year. This reflects improved lease rates, higher external deliveries and improved labor and operational efficiencies.

首先，我們的 GAAP 每股收益為 0.67 美元，調整後每股收益為 0.66 美元，季增 0.33 美元，調整後年增 0.43 美元。其次，營收年增16%，營業利潤較去年同期成長43%。這反映了租賃率的提高、外部交付的增加以及勞動力和營運效率的提高。

Third, our cash flow from continuing operations in the quarter was $243 million, driven by higher external deliveries and working capital improvements. And finally, as we discussed at Investor Day, we are moving to a more traditional post-tax definition of ROE as a key performance indicator. Using this updated metric, Trinity's last 12-month adjusted ROE was 16.8%, showcasing strength in operating results and balance sheet positioning.

第三，由於外部交付量增加和營運資本改善，本季我們來自持續營運的現金流為 2.43 億美元。最後，正如我們在投資者日討論的那樣，我們正在轉向更傳統的稅後淨值收益率定義作為關鍵績效指標。使用這項更新的指標，Trinity 過去 12 個月的調整後 ROE 為 16.8%，顯示了營運績效和資產負債表定位的實力。

In short, our team delivered strong financial results in the second quarter, giving us confidence in the second half of the year. As Eric will discuss in his prepared remarks, we are raising our annual guidance by $0.20 to a 2024 full year range of $1.55 to $1.75, which imply a steady performance in the second half of the year.

簡而言之，我們的團隊在第二季取得了強勁的財務業績，讓我們對下半年充滿信心。正如 Eric 將在他準備好的演講中討論的那樣，我們將年度指導上調 0.20 美元，至 2024 年全年指導範圍為 1.55 美元至 1.75 美元，這意味著下半年的業績將保持穩定。

Before discussing Trinity's performance, I'd like to update you on the railcar market. Demand for existing railcars remain strong with continued steady carload volumes expected in the back half of the year. Consistent with normal seasonal trends, we have seen railcars and storage tick up slightly, but we view the overall state of the railcar market favorably.

在討論 Trinity 的表現之前，我想先向您介紹軌道車市場的最新情況。對現有鐵路車的需求依然強勁，預計今年下半年的運載量將持續穩定。與正常的季節性趨勢一致，我們看到軌道車和儲存量略有上升，但我們對軌道車市場的整體狀況持樂觀態度。

The North American railcar fleet has grown somewhat in the last 18 months as railcar users look to optimize scrapping decisions as replacement cars are delivered. As we mentioned at our Investor Day, there are still large pockets of aging railcars that will need to be replaced in the coming years.

過去 18 個月，北美鐵路車車隊有所成長，因為鐵路車用戶希望在更換車輛交付時優化報廢決策。正如我們在投資者日所提到的，仍有大量老化的鐵路車需要在未來幾年進行更換。

Furthermore, train speeds are favorable, and dwell times are down, which is a good sign for the overall longer-term conversion of modal share to rail but reduces the demand for railcars in the short term. Carloads are down slightly year-over-year, primarily due to a slowdown in coal carloads. Removing coal, carloads are up slightly year over year.

此外，火車速度有利，停留時間縮短，這對於運輸模式份額向鐵路的整體長期轉換來說是一個好兆頭，但短期內減少了對軌道車的需求。運載量較去年同期略有下降，主要是因為煤炭運載量放緩。除去煤炭，車輛裝載量較去年同期略有增加。

Over the last few weeks, North American rail originations of construction and metals, agriculture, and downstream and chemical products were up about 9%. Combined railcars in these segments represent over 75% of our fleet net book value. We expect industry deliveries of around 40,000 railcars in 2024 and 120,000 railcars over the next three years. The builders, including Trinity, are demonstrating great market discipline to keep the industry fleet well utilized and diversified.

過去幾週，北美鐵路建築、金屬、農業、下游和化學產品的出貨量增加了約 9%。這些細分市場的軌道車組合占我們車隊帳面淨值的 75% 以上。我們預計 2024 年產業交付約 4 萬輛軌道車，未來三年將交付 12 萬輛軌道車。包括三一在內的建築商正在展示嚴格的市場紀律，以保持行業船隊的良好利用和多元化。

The railcar build cycle is expected to be less volatile than prior cycles with lower peaks and higher floors. Trinity's business has two main segments: leasing and services and rail products. I'll start my comments in the leasing and services segment, which includes our leasing, maintenance, and logistics services businesses.

軌道車建造週期預計將比之前的周期波動更小，峰值更低，樓層更高。Trinity的業務有兩個主要部分：租賃和服務以及鐵路產品。我將從租賃和服務領域開始我的評論，其中包括我們的租賃、維護和物流服務業務。

In our leasing business, we are proud of our lease fleet continued strength and momentum. The future lease rate differential or FLRD, is a positive 28.3%. This metric has stayed consistently high as market rates maintain their strength. During the nine quarters in which we have seen this metric in positive double digits, we have repriced about 44% of our fleet. Our renewal lease rates were 32.5% above expiring rates and leasing and management revenues were about 9% higher than a year ago.

在我們的租賃業務中，我們對租賃機隊持續的實力和勢頭感到自豪。未來租賃利率差（FLRD）為正 28.3%。隨著市場利率保持強勁，該指標一直保持在較高水準。在該指標達到正兩位數的九個季度中，我們對約 44% 的機隊進行了重新定價。我們的續約率比到期率高出 32.5%，租賃和管理收入比一年前高出約 9%。

In the quarter, we had a renewal success rate of 72% and the utilization rate of 96.9%. Our strategy is to evaluate the best market for our railcars to maximize long-term returns which can mean shifting railcars at the end of expiring contracts to best position our fleet for long-term value creation.

本季度，我們的續訂成功率為72%，利用率為96.9%。我們的策略是評估我們的軌道車的最佳市場，以最大限度地提高長期回報，這可能意味著在合約到期時轉移軌道車，以使我們的車隊處於最佳位置，從而創造長期價值。

Given the markets, car types, and customers with expirations in the quarter, we feel good about our fleet's current positioning and utilization. We completed a portfolio sale of 1,315 railcars and related leases for an aggregate sales price of approximately $143 million and we recognized gains of $23 million on all lease portfolio sales in the secondary market this quarter.

考慮到市場、車型和本季到期的客戶，我們對車隊目前的定位和利用率感到滿意。我們完成了 1,315 輛軌道車及相關租賃的組合銷售，總銷售價格約為 1.43 億美元，本季度我們在二級市場上的所有租賃組合銷售中確認了 2300 萬美元的收益。

Our maintenance business is part of our leasing segment. And as volume shifts between internal and external repairs, the margin in that business can vary significantly. However, having a strong maintenance network and the ability to service our own fleet is a competitive advantage and makes us a better railcar owner and partner.

我們的維修業務是我們租賃部門的一部分。隨著內部和外部維修量的變化，該業務的利潤率可能會大不相同。然而，擁有強大的維護網路和為我們自己的車隊提供服務的能力是一種競爭優勢，並使我們成為更好的軌道車所有者和合作夥伴。

Moving to our rail products business, which supports our lease fleet and includes railcar manufacturing and our aftermarket parts business, I am pleased with our substantial progress especially in labor and operational efficiencies. Our operating margin of 7.9% in the second quarter is up significantly, both sequentially and year-over-year and is at the higher end of our full year guidance of 6% to 8%.

談到我們的鐵路產品業務，該業務支持我們的租賃車隊，包括軌道車製造和售後零件業務，我對我們取得的重大進展感到高興，特別是在勞動力和營運效率方面。我們第二季的營業利潤率為 7.9%，無論是環比還是同比都顯著上升，處於我們全年指引 6% 至 8% 的較高端。

We received orders for 2,495 railcars in the quarter and delivered 4,755 railcars. Inquiries remain supportive of a replacement level demand and customers continue to efficiently place deliveries into service. A narrower railcar's build cycle allows for more consistent operations and smoother labor and supply chain planning. This helps support consistent or modest margin growth in this business without volume growth in the near term.

本季我們收到了 2,495 輛軌道車訂單，交付了 4,755 輛軌道車。詢價仍然支持更換水準的需求，客戶繼續有效地交付服務。軌道車的建造週期更短，可以實現更一致的操作以及更順暢的勞動力和供應鏈規劃。這有助於支持該業務的持續或適度的利潤成長，而短期內銷售不會成長。

Before I conclude, I want to note that at the end of June, we published an interim update to our corporate social responsibility report, which is available on our website. I encourage you to review the report to get a timely update on our company's sustainability initiatives. I'll now turn to Eric to discuss the financial statements and update our views on the rest of the year.

在結束之前，我想指出，六月底，我們發布了企業社會責任報告的中期更新，該報告可在我們的網站上取得。我鼓勵您查看該報告，以便隨時了解我們公司永續發展計畫的最新情況。我現在將請艾瑞克討論財務報表並更新我們對今年剩餘時間的看法。

Thank you, Jean, and good morning, everyone. I want to walk through some highlights from our financial statements, and then I'll close with some thoughts on our expectations for the rest of 2024.

謝謝你，吉恩，大家早安。我想介紹我們財務報表中的一些要點，然後我將以對 2024 年剩餘時間的預期的一些想法作為結束語。

Starting in the income statement. Quarterly revenues of $841 million reflect higher external record deliveries and improved lease rates. GAAP earnings per share from continuing operations was $0.67 and adjusted EPS was $0.66. As Jean noted, this represents significant growth both sequentially and year over year. We benefited in the quarter by lower eliminations and lease portfolio sales. We also saw a consistently better performance in our business and improved operating margins for both segments of our business.

從損益表開始。季度營收為 8.41 億美元，反映出外部唱片交付量的增加和租賃率的提高。持續經營業務的 GAAP 每股收益為 0.67 美元，調整後每股收益為 0.66 美元。正如 Jean 指出的那樣，這代表著環比和同比的顯著增長。本季我們受惠於較低的抵銷額和租賃組合銷售。我們也看到我們的業務業績持續改善，兩個業務部門的營業利潤率都有所提高。

Moving to the cash flow statement. We generated cash flow from continuing operations of $243 million in the quarter and $300 million year to date. As you'll remember, we ended 2023 with a higher working capital balance driven by year-end issues at the border. Those railcars have now been delivered and converted into cash, which you can see in our lower working capital balance of $699 million, down approximately $92 million from the first quarter.

轉到現金流量表。本季我們透過持續經營業務產生的現金流為 2.43 億美元，今年迄今為 3 億美元。您可能還記得，由於年終邊境問題，我們在 2023 年結束時營運資金餘額增加。這些軌道車現已交付並轉換為現金，您可以從我們較低的營運資本餘額 6.99 億美元中看到這一點，比第一季減少約 9,200 萬美元。

The combined result of $163 million in leased railcar sales and fewer deliveries to the lease fleet in the quarter is a net fleet investment of a negative $77 million. Our net fleet investment guidance range for the full year remains unchanged as secondary market activity is often lumpy, and we expect to see net investment increase in the back half of the year with more deliveries in the lease fleet and fewer railcar sales in the secondary market.

本季租賃軌道車銷售額為 1.63 億美元，加上租賃車隊交付量減少，綜合結果是車隊淨投資為負 7,700 萬美元。由於二級市場活動往往不穩定，我們全年的淨車隊投資指引範圍保持不變，我們預計下半年淨投資將增加，租賃車隊的交付量將增加，而二級市場的軌道車銷量將減少。

The RIV sale in the second quarter marks the fulfillment of our original program agreement. We expect to continue selling leased railcars to our RIV partners. We currently have liquidity of $985 million. Our loan to value for the wholly owned lease portfolio is 68.3% within our new target range of 60% to 70%.

第二季 RIV 的銷售標誌著我們最初的計劃協議的履行。我們預計將繼續向 RIV 合作夥伴銷售租賃的軌道車。我們目前的流動資金為 9.85 億美元。我們全資租賃投資組合的貸款價值率為 68.3%，位於 60% 至 70% 的新目標範圍內。

In the second quarter, two significant debt and capital market transactions strengthened our balance sheet and optimized our loan to value. First, in May, we issued $432 million of green secured railcar equipment notes, The TRL-2024 notes. The proceeds from this issuance were used to repay warehouse borrowings and redeem the outstanding ABS debt of TRL 7.

第二季度，兩項重大債務和資本市場交易增強了我們的資產負債表，並優化了我們的貸款價值。首先，我們在 5 月發行了 4.32 億美元的綠色擔保鐵路車輛設備票據，即 TRL-2024 票據。本次發行的收益用於償還倉庫借款並贖回未償還的 TRL 7 ABS 債務。

Second, in June, we issued an additional $200 million of principal on our unsecured senior notes increasing the aggregate principal amount to $600 million. We used the proceeds from this transaction and cash on hand to repay our Trinity unsecured 2024 senior notes.

其次，6 月份，我們在無擔保優先票據上額外發行了 2 億美元本金，使本金總額達到 6 億美元。我們使用本次交易的收益和手頭現金償還我們的 Trinity 無抵押 2024 年優先票據。

And now let's talk about what we expect in the second half of 2024. As Jean mentioned, we still expect about 40,000 industry railcar deliveries in 2024 to support replacement-level demand. We expect to invest between $300 million and $400 million in our fleet on a net basis. Our operating and administrative capital expenditures of $50 million to $60 million in the year which includes investments in automation, technology and modernization of facilities and processes remains unchanged from previous guidance.

現在讓我們來談談我們對 2024 年下半年的期望。正如 Jean 所提到的，我們仍預計 2024 年將有約 40,000 輛工業軌道車交付，以支援替代水準的需求。我們預計對我們的機隊進行淨投資 3 億至 4 億美元。我們今年的營運和管理資本支出為 5,000 萬至 6,000 萬美元，其中包括對自動化、技術以及設施和流程現代化的投資，與先前的指導保持不變。

Finally, as Jean mentioned, we are increasing our full year EPS guidance to a range of $1.55 to $1.75 for 2024. As we plan for the next six months, I want to provide more color around our guidance. First, as expected, we accomplished a large railcar sale in the quarter. Year-to-date, our gains on railcar sales are $25 million. We previously stated that we expect gains to be about half of what they were in 2023. So the implication is that gains from sales in the secondary market will be lower in the second half of the year.

最後，正如 Jean 所提到的，我們將 2024 年全年 EPS 指導提高至 1.55 美元至 1.75 美元。在我們計劃未來六個月時，我想為我們的指導提供更多色彩。首先，正如預期的那樣，我們在本季完成了大規模的軌道車銷售。今年迄今為止，我們的軌道車銷售收益為 2,500 萬美元。我們之前曾表示，預計收益將約為 2023 年的一半。因此，這意味著下半年二級市場的銷售收益將會較低。

Second, on our 2023 fourth quarter call, we stated that we expect about 20% to 25% of our deliveries to go into lease fleet for 2024. In the second quarter, that was about 10% due to the timing and planning of our manufacturing and delivery schedule. This benefited our quarterly earnings in the second quarter due to a lower revenue and profit eliminations. We expect a higher percentage of deliveries going into our lease fleet in the second half of the year. This is in support of our fleet investment goals and our conviction in the returns we will achieve by leasing these railcars instead of selling them new.

其次，在 2023 年第四季電話會議上，我們表示預計 2024 年交付量的約 20% 至 25% 將用於租賃機隊。在第二季度，由於我們的製造和交付時間表的時間安排和規劃，這一比例約為 10%。由於收入和利潤消除減少，這有利於我們第二季的季度收益。我們預計下半年我們的租賃機隊的交付比例將會更高。這是為了支持我們的車隊投資目標，以及我們對透過租賃這些軌道車而不是出售新車來實現回報的信念。

When we added a railcar into our fleet, the associated revenue and profit for manufacturing are eliminated. Therefore, a higher percentage of railcars go into our fleet on the same number of deliveries will reduce quarterly earnings per share but will generate better long-term returns on the railcar and provide multiyear visibility in forward cash flow through lease contracts.

當我們在車隊中增加一輛軌道車時，相關的製造收入和利潤就消除了。因此，在相同的交付數量下，更高比例的鐵路車進入我們的車隊將減少季度每股收益，但將產生更好的鐵路車長期回報，並透過租賃合約提供遠期現金流的多年可見性。

As we discussed at our Investor Day, we expect 2024 operating margins between 38% and 41% in our leasing segment and between 6% and 8% in our rail products segment. While we expect margins to average at these rates over the years, there can be some variability throughout the year.

正如我們在投資者日討論的那樣，我們預計 2024 年租賃部門的營業利潤率將在 38% 至 41% 之間，鐵路產品部門的營業利潤率將在 6% 至 8% 之間。雖然我們預計多年來的平均利潤率將保持在這些水平，但全年可能會出現一些變化。

Leasing segment operating margins can move due to secondary market activity, maintenance volume, and mix. Rail products margins can move due to product mix, line changeovers, and production efficiency. We are proud of our performance in the second quarter and feel increasingly confident in our visibility in the rest of the year as evidenced by raising our EPS guidance.

租賃部門的營業利潤率可能會因二級市場活動、維護量和組合而變化。鐵路產品的利潤率可能會因產品組合、生產線轉換和生產效率而改變。我們對第二季的業績感到自豪，並對今年剩餘時間的能見度越來越有信心，提高每股盈餘指引證明了這一點。

In our leasing segment, a consistently high FLRD has driven lease rates upward and the revenue growth from higher lease rates flows to the bottom line. Our maintenance and digital services businesses are also performing well, providing a broader customer offering and a better customer experience. In the rail products group, our higher operating margin reflects consistent and disciplined efforts around labor and operational efficiency. Our legacy parts and holding businesses are performing well and reducing the overall cyclicality of the segment.

在我們的租賃領域，持續較高的 FLRD 推動了租賃費率的上升，而較高的租賃費率帶來的收入成長則流入了利潤。我們的維護和數位服務業務也表現良好，提供了更廣泛的客戶服務和更好的客戶體驗。在鐵路產品部門，我們較高的營業利潤率反映了在勞動力和營運效率方面持續和嚴格的努力。我們的傳統零件和控股業務表現良好，並降低了該領域的整體週期性。

In summary, our suite of products and services are all performing well, improving the returns of our business and driving shareholder value. Operator, we are now ready to take our first question.

總而言之，我們的產品和服務套件均表現良好，提高了我們的業務回報並推動股東價值。接線員，我們現在準備回答第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions) Bascome Majors, Susquehanna.

（操作員說明）Bascome Majors，薩斯奎哈納。

Good morning. From a little shaping, you were very clear on the internal versus external sales dynamic and how that would impact the second half. Can you talk a little bit about the margin progression, which has been really strong for several straight quarters. And in the OE side of the business, if that keeps moving up, would potentially put us in the higher end of your range by yearend. But also, we understand that there may be some absorption issues with more of that revenue and profit being eliminated and trying to balance the underlying trend with the accounting of it. Thank you.

早安.透過一點塑造，您非常清楚內部與外部銷售動態以及這將如何影響下半年。您能談談利潤率的成長嗎？在業務的原始設備方面，如果這種情況繼續上升，到年底我們可能會處於您的範圍的高端。但我們也知道，可能會有一些吸收問題，因為更多的收入和利潤被消除，並試圖平衡基本趨勢與其會計處理。謝謝。

Well, Bascome you summarized it really well. So when we look at the second half with the products group, as Eric mentioned in his prepared remarks, it really depends on the mix of cars that we're producing, the number of line changeovers that are occurring during that time period and then the efficiencies, different car types have different efficiencies that go along with them. So the group will continue to work on all the initiatives.

嗯，巴斯科姆，你總結得很好。因此，當我們看下半年的產品組時，正如埃里克在他準備好的演講中提到的那樣，這實際上取決於我們正在生產的汽車組合、該時期內發生的生產線轉換數量，以及效率，不同的汽車類型有不同的效率。因此，該小組將繼續致力於所有措施。

Some of the early successes we've seen have been along the supply chain and procurement area along with some of the changeover work that they've been doing. So we expect to continue that, but still are holding the guidance for the year of 6% to 8% for the margins of products. Remember, that steps up next year, and the range we're giving there is 7% to 9%.

我們看到的一些早期成功是沿著供應鏈和採購領域以及他們一直在進行的一些轉換工作。因此，我們預計將繼續保持這一趨勢，但仍維持今年產品利潤率 6% 至 8% 的指導。請記住，明年這個比例會增加，我們給出的範圍是 7% 到 9%。

And that was actually my next question. There's a modest step-up next year and really more of a leap in your long-term guidance to 9% to 11% in 2026. Can we walk -- I mean this came up at the Investor Day a few weeks ago, but can we revisit that? The caution on next year and the visibility or hope into a more meaningful increase in the year after, is that really just some kind of cyclical cushioning? Or is there something you have visibility into -- in the mix and backlog that suggest that you really should see a bigger leap 18 months from now rather than 6 months from now? Thank you.

這實際上是我的下一個問題。明年會有小幅提升，長期指導將在 2026 年實現 9% 至 11% 的飛躍。我們可以走嗎——我的意思是幾週前的投資者日就提​​到了這個問題，但我們可以重新討論一下嗎？對明年的謹慎以及對後年更有意義成長的可見性或希望，這真的只是某種週期性緩衝嗎？或者，在混合和積壓工作中，是否有一些東西表明您確實應該在 18 個月後而不是 6 個月後看到更大的飛躍？謝謝。

Sure, Bascome. So it is not the mix. What we're looking at is the initiatives. Remember, we said we're working on workforce staffing, retention and development, standardizing product offerings and complexity reduction, enhancing our production planning capabilities, advanced supply chain processes and strategic sourcing and then technology and automation.

當然，巴斯科姆。所以這不是混合。我們正在關注的是舉措。請記住，我們說過我們正在致力於勞動力配置、保留和發展、標準化產品供應和降低複雜性、增強我們的生產規劃能力、先進的供應鏈流程和策略採購，然後是技術和自動化。

All of those take time to come through to the bottom line beyond the supply chain. So it's really about the timing of getting those done and bringing those in. And what we told you at the Investor Day was from 2024 through 2026 we expect industry deliveries could be 120,000. So you're talking about a fairly stable environment overall. There could be a little bit of a lumpiness year-to-year, but that's fairly stable. And so it's going to take these initiatives coming through to continue to improve that margin.

所有這些都需要時間才能實現供應鏈之外的底線。所以這實際上是關於完成這些工作並將其引入的時機。我們在投資者日告訴您，從 2024 年到 2026 年，我們預計行業交付量可能達到 120,000 輛。所以你談論的是一個整體上相當穩定的環境。每年可能會有一點波動，但相當穩定。因此，它將採取這些措施來繼續提高利潤率。

The last one from me. Can you talk a little bit -- I think you said that you're through 44% of your fleet repricing since lease rates really took off a few years ago. Can we talk about how long the runway is to get to 100%?

我的最後一張。您能談談嗎？我們可以談談達到100%的跑道需要多長嗎？

I think people just have kind of assumed maybe 15% a year as a proxy, but if lease rates on an absolute basis stay where they are, how much runway do you have into repricing the existing fleet, a meaningfully better returns as we get through that without needing to see sequential strengthening or increases in the lease rates on an absolute basis. Thank you.

我認為人們只是假設每年 15% 作為代理，但如果絕對基礎上的租賃率保持在原來水平，那麼你對現有機隊重新定價還有多少空間，當我們度過難關時，回報會明顯提高這不需要看到租賃費率在絕對基礎上連續加強或增加。謝謝。

So Bascome, I'll go on that, and then Eric can jump in if he needs to. When you look at the tight market that we're in, it's really a balanced market and supply driven. So that's kept the discipline there within the market. And so with only 44% of our fleet repriced -- and you are correct, we repriced about 15% of our fleet on an annual basis. We still see headroom going forward.

巴斯科姆，我會繼續說下去，然後艾瑞克可以在需要時加入。當你看到我們所處的緊張市場時，你會發現這確實是一個平衡的市場和供應驅動的市場。這樣就保持了市場的紀律。因此，我們只有 44% 的機隊重新定價 - 你是對的，我們每年對大約 15% 的機隊重新定價。我們仍然看到未來的發展空間。

Remember, in the quarter, our renewal rates were up 32.5% versus expiring rates. So we're still seeing strength there. You'll see any changes in that coming through in our FLRD in the future. But an FLRD of 28.3% is still very strong.

請記住，本季我們的續訂率比到期率上升了 32.5%。所以我們仍然看到那裡的力量。未來您將在我們的 FLRD 中看到這方面的任何變化。但 28.3% 的 FLRD 仍然非常強勁。

Thank you, both.

謝謝你們，兩位。

(Operator Instructions) Steve Barger, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）Steve Barger，KeyBanc 資本市場。

Hi, good morning, this is Jacob Moore on for Steve today. Thanks for taking my questions. Some of these are similar to Bascome, but maybe asked in a slightly different way. So the first for me, this looks like one of the lower revenue per car quarter since 4Q '21, and I'm not exactly sure how the segment reclassification affects that. So I guess my first question is, can you talk about what's going on with mix? And what does mix look like in the second half? Looked like it was a negative call out on the manufacturing revenue line.

大家好，早安，我是雅各摩爾，今天為史蒂夫做節目。感謝您回答我的問題。其中一些與 Bascome 類似，但詢問方式可能略有不同。因此，對我來說，第一個問題是，這看起來是自21 年第四季以來每個汽車季度收入較低的一個，而且我不太確定細分市場的重新分類會如何影響這一點。所以我想我的第一個問題是，你能談談 mix 的情況嗎？下半場的混音會是什麼樣子？看起來這對製造業收入來說是一個負面的呼籲。

Yeah. Jacob, this is Eric. Thanks. As far as the mix goes, and we're still more of a freight car-led market and even -- which freight cars generally have, on average, a lower selling price than the tank cars. And within that, there's a wide swing in mix. So I think that's fairly -- I wouldn't call too much attention to that.

是的。雅各布，這是埃里克。謝謝。就混合情況而言，我們仍然是一個以貨車為主導的市場，甚至，貨車的平均售價通常低於油罐車。其中，混合方面存在著很大的搖擺。所以我認為這是公平的——我不會對此太多關注。

As we go forward, we expect a little more a modest increase in tank car delivery. So that should help that average selling price. We're more focused on the margins on all those railcars. And so we feel good about where the price environment is overall on kind of across the board in all car types.

隨著我們的前進，我們預計油罐車的交付量將略有增加。所以這應該有助於平均售價。我們更關注所有這些軌道車的利潤。因此，我們對所有車型的整體價格環境感到滿意。

Okay. Got it. Thanks for that. Second one for me. Your first half orders averaged 2,200 per quarter versus a delivery average more than twice that at 4,700. So my question is if that pattern persists in the second half, my math suggests backlog would end around 16,000 cars. Is there any thought to slowing down production? Or do you have firm delivery schedules for everything that's in the backlog right now?

好的。知道了。謝謝你。對我來說第二個。上半年，您的平均訂單量為每季 2,200 份，而平均交貨量為 4,700 份，是該數字的兩倍多。所以我的問題是，如果這種模式在下半年持續存在，我的數學表明積壓將結束大約 16,000 輛汽車。有沒有想過要放慢生產速度？或者對於目前積壓的所有產品，您都有明確的交貨時間表嗎？

So I'll take that one. When you look at the order entry, so the builders are getting quicker on delivering cars. So in the past, when supply chain had issues I would -- we would get orders earlier because everything filled up quicker. We're pretty much sold out for 2024. And when you look at the makeup of those as Eric said, it's still freight car led, but tank car is starting to improve on it.

所以我會接受那個。當你查看訂單條目時，你會發現製造商交付汽車的速度越來越快。所以在過去，當供應鏈出現問題時，我們會更早收到訂單，因為一切都更快填滿。2024 年的貨品幾乎已經售罄。正如艾瑞克所說，當你看看這些的構成時，它仍然以貨運車為主導，但坦克車開始對此進行改進。

We're not really concerned. Order entry can be lumpy. Remember, we had a large multiyear order come in. We've got about 46% of the industry backlog sitting on our books. And as you said, we've delivered 40% plus of the deliveries for the last four quarters. So overall, it's really been lumpiness in quarterly entry and then the backlog that we already have.

我們並不真正擔心。訂單輸入可能會很混亂。請記住，我們收到了多年期的大訂單。我們的帳面上大約有 46% 的行業積壓訂單。正如您所說，我們已經交付了過去四個季度 40% 以上的交付量。總的來說，季度輸入確實很混亂，然後我們已經積壓了。

Okay. Got it. And that kind of leads nicely into my last question, if you will. But if deliveries are lower next year, could you maintain manufacturing margin in the 8% range or maybe better ask what's the minimum delivery schedule to achieve your target manufacturing margin?

好的。知道了。如果你願意的話，這很好地引出了我的最後一個問題。但如果明年的交付量較低，您能否將製造利潤率維持在 8% 的範圍內，或者更好地詢問實現目標製造利潤率的最低交付計劃是多少？

So Jacob, as far as 2025 goes, we just did our Investor Day a few weeks ago, and we gave pretty good indications of activity and margin guidance for '24, '25, and '26. That's as far as we're going to go today in terms of '25. But as Jean just mentioned, we're expecting 120,000 railcars over the next three years. So that's -- which is the same number we've seen in the last three years. So it should be pretty smoother. Won't be 40,000 every year, but we're kind of on pace for about 40,000 this year. So you're not -- you can't really get that much variation off of it. And the margin profile -- our knowledge of our margin profile for '25 is reflected in our Investor Day comments.

因此，雅各布，就 2025 年而言，我們幾週前剛剛舉辦了投資者日，我們對 24 年、25 年和 26 年的活動和利潤指引給出了很好的指示。這就是我們今天要討論的「25」。但正如 Jean 剛才提到的，我們預計未來三年將有 12 萬輛軌道車。這與我們在過去三年中看到的數字相同。所以應該會比較順利。每年不會達到 4 萬人，但今年我們的目標是 4 萬人左右。所以你不能——你真的無法從中獲得那麼多的變化。利潤狀況—我們對 25 年利潤狀況的了解反映在我們的投資者日評論中。

Understood. That's good clarification. Thanks, Eric, and thank you both for taking questions.

明白了。這是很好的澄清。謝謝埃里克，也謝謝你們提出問題。

Thanks, Jacob.

謝謝，雅各。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Bascome Majors, Susquehanna.

巴斯科姆專業，薩斯奎哈納。

Eric, just with all the accounting nuance that we can see in your numbers sometime between the eliminations and that sort of thing, could you walk us through the $0.20 guidance increase on the EPS line, just so we kind of understand a little better what's accounting and what's maybe upside surprises in the core performance of the business. Thank you.

艾瑞克（Eric），就我們可以在您的數據中在消除和諸如此類的事情之間的某個時間看到的所有會計細微差別，您能否向我們介紹一下EPS 線上0.20 美元的指導增長，以便我們更了解會計內容以及該業務的核心業績可能會帶來哪些驚喜。謝謝。

Yeah. Thanks, Bascome. So I mean, I think the setup in your question kind of is accurate. First, I'd say the second quarter activity, we're really happy with where the activity came out, and we did see solid performance in both of our segments.

是的。謝謝，巴斯科姆。所以我的意思是，我認為你問題中的設定是準確的。首先，我要說的是第二季的活動，我們對活動的結果非常滿意，而且我們確實看到了兩個細分市場的穩健表現。

When you compare that to what our guidance was for the year back when we talked -- last talked in late April, early May. The second quarter does reflect better performance than we expected at the time. It also reflects our current guidance reflects better performance in the back half of the year.

當你將其與我們去年談話時的指導進行比較時——上次談話是在四月底、五月初。第二季的表現確實比我們當時的預期好。這也反映了我們目前的指導反映了下半年更好的表現。

And so we knew -- I talked about in the prepared remarks the timing of gains -- we've had more of the gains in the first half compared to the second half. I think that's pretty clear on that. And as you mentioned or referenced, the eliminations are certainly back-end weighted this year. And that's just the way the production schedule fell, but some of that was reflected in our beat in the second quarter. We had fewer eliminations. The gains were a little higher than we expected as one of the deals got done in the second quarter. But we're holding our gain outlook for the full year. Our elimination outlook for the full year has held the same. So overall, we were really happy with it.

所以我們知道——我在準備好的發言中談到了收益的時機——與下半年相比，我們在上半年獲得了更多的收益。我認為這很清楚。正如您所提到或提到的，今年的淘汰肯定是後端加權的。這就是生產計劃下降的原因，但其中一些反映在我們第二季的表現中。我們的淘汰數較少。由於其中一筆交易在第二季完成，因此收益略高於我們的預期。但我們維持全年獲利預期。我們對全年的消除前景保持不變。總的來說，我們對此非常滿意。

And the last thing I'd just say is, remember, we had some deliveries that were hung up at the border in the fourth quarter. Those have now all delivered and converted into cash. So we got the benefit of that roughly 1,000 units in the first half. We won't have that in the second half.

我要說的最後一件事是，請記住，我們在第四季度有一些交付被擱置在邊境。這些現在已經全部交付並兌換成現金。所以我們在上半年就受益於大約 1,000 個單位。下半場我們不會再有這樣的情況了。

And to your comments about being happy with better performance than we expected in both the second quarter and with that carrying into the second half is if we really wanted to drill down into that, is that mostly about manufacturing efficiency and margin? Or I mean, what are the one or two things you would point to on where you surprised yourselves versus the budget you had in April? Thank you.

對於您對第二季和下半年的業績好於我們預期感到滿意的評論，我們是否真的想深入研究這一點，這主要是關於製造效率和利潤率嗎？或者我的意思是，與 4 月的預算相比，您會指出哪一兩件事讓您感到驚訝？謝謝。

Yeah. I would say the margins on the rail group, we did -- specifically the deliveries at the border, the flow-through of our supply chain all led to better efficiencies. And so that gives us a lot of confidence as we move forward.

是的。我想說的是，鐵路集團的利潤，我們做到了——特別是邊境的交付，我們供應鏈的流通都帶來了更高的效率。這給了我們前進的信心。

On the leasing side, with an FLRD of 28%, last quarter 32%, we expect lease rates to keep improving. And so -- and we have -- we're confident that in the back half of the year, we'll continue to reprice assets up. And so we're confident in that as well.

在租賃方面，FLRD 為 28%，上季為 32%，我們預期租賃率將持續改善。因此，我們有信心在今年下半年，我們將繼續提高資產的定價。所以我們對此也充滿信心。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll be ending today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to management for any closing remarks.

女士們、先生們，我們今天的問答環節就到此結束。我想將發言權交還給管理階層，讓他們發表結束語。

Well, thank you for your time today. The strength of the Trinity platform comes from our consistent focus on protecting and enhancing the returns of our lease fleet. And we're pleased with our second quarter results, and we believe we are well positioned for continued improvement on the returns of our business.

好的，謝謝您今天抽出時間。Trinity 平台的優勢來自於我們對保護和提高租賃機隊回報的一貫關注。我們對第二季的業績感到滿意，我們相信我們已經做好了持續改善業務回報的準備。

Ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll conclude today's conference call and presentation. We do thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們先生們，我們今天的電話會議和演示就到此結束。我們非常感謝您的加入。現在您可以斷開線路。