Trinity Industries Inc (TRN) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Trinity Industries Fourth Quarter and 12 Months Ended December 31, 2022, Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note today's event is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎來到 Trinity Industries 第四季度和截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日的 12 個月結果電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意今天的活動正在錄製中。

Before we get started, let me remind you that today's conference call contains forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and includes statements as to estimates, expectations, intentions and predictions of future financial performance. Statements that are not historical facts are forward-looking. Participants are directed to Trinity's Form 10-K and other SEC filings for a description of certain of the business issues and risks. A change in any of which could cause actual results or outcomes to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements.

在我們開始之前，讓我提醒您，今天的電話會議包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》定義的前瞻性陳述，包括對未來財務業績的估計、預期、意圖和預測的陳述。非歷史事實的陳述是前瞻性的。參與者將被引導至 Trinity 的 10-K 表格和其他 SEC 文件，以了解某些業務問題和風險的描述。其中任何一項的變化都可能導致實際結果或結果與前瞻性陳述中表達的結果或結果大不相同。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Leigh Anne Mann, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁 Leigh Anne Mann。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us for the company's fourth quarter 2022 Financial Results Conference Call. Our prepared remarks will include comments from Jean Savage, Trinity's Chief Executive Officer and President; and Eric Marchetto, the company's Chief Financial Officer. We will hold a Q&A session following the prepared remarks from our leaders. .

謝謝你，運營商。大家，早安。感謝您加入我們公司 2022 年第四季度財務業績電話會議。我們準備好的發言將包括 Trinity 首席執行官兼總裁 Jean Savage 的評論；和公司首席財務官 Eric Marchetto。我們將在領導人準備好的發言後舉行問答環節。 .

During the call today, we will reference slides highlighting key points of discussion as well as certain non-GAAP financial metrics. The reconciliation of the non-GAAP metrics to comparable GAAP measures are provided in the appendix of the supplemental slides, which are accessible on our Investor Relations website at www.trin.net. These slides can be found under the Events and Presentations portion of the website, along with the fourth quarter earnings conference call event link. A replay of today's call will be available after 10:30 a.m. Eastern Time through midnight on February 28, 2023. Replay information is available under the Events and Presentations page on our Investor Relations website.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將參考強調討論要點以及某些非 GAAP 財務指標的幻燈片。補充幻燈片的附錄中提供了非 GAAP 指標與可比較的 GAAP 指標的對賬，可在我們的投資者關係網站 www.trin.net 上訪問。這些幻燈片可以在網站的“活動和演示”部分以及第四季度收益電話會議活動鏈接下找到。東部時間上午 10 點 30 分至 2023 年 2 月 28 日午夜將重播今天的電話會議。重播信息可在我們的投資者關係網站的“活動和演示”頁面下找到。

It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Jean.

現在我很高興將電話轉給 Jean。

Thank you, Leigh Anne, and good morning, everyone. I hope your 2023 is off to a great start. Before we begin with our prepared remarks, I want to take a moment and acknowledge the accomplishments of 2022, but don't always appear on financial statements but are essential to all of our stakeholders. .

謝謝你，Leigh Anne，大家早上好。我希望你的 2023 年有個好的開始。在我們開始準備好的發言之前，我想花點時間承認 2022 年取得的成就，但這些成就並不總是出現在財務報表上，但對我們所有的利益相關者來說都是必不可少的。 .

Our company purpose is delivering goods for the good of all, and is embedded in this purpose is our focus on environmental, social and governance excellence. We have updated our operating model to embed the word sustainability as a core value, further evidence that we view sustainability as a key focus for our business. Last year, we continued our efforts to ramp up our ESG initiatives as a company. This included naming a Global Head of ESG for Trinity to spearhead and lead our ESG initiatives, we became the first railcar manufacturing company in North America to certify that our existing EHS management system conforms to the international organization for standardizations, environmental standard and occupational health and safety standards.

我們公司的宗旨是為所有人的利益提供商品，而嵌入這一宗旨的是我們對環境、社會和治理卓越的關注。我們更新了我們的運營模式，將可持續性作為核心價值，進一步證明我們將可持續性視為我們業務的重點。去年，我們繼續努力加強公司的 ESG 舉措。這包括為 Trinity 任命一位 ESG 全球負責人來帶頭和領導我們的 ESG 舉措，我們成為北美第一家證明我們現有的 EHS 管理體系符合國際標準化組織、環境標準和職業健康組織的軌道車輛製造公司，以及安全標準。

We hired a director to lead our DE&I initiatives, launched 9 employee resource groups and employee networks and completed our first ESG road show with investors. Additionally, in our core business, we are consistently working on new product development to support sustainability priorities. This includes improving efficiency in new railcar designs and programs like our sustainable conversion program that allow us to repurpose existing railcars and increase the longevity of their parts and components.

我們聘請了一名董事來領導我們的 DE&I 計劃，啟動了 9 個員工資源組和員工網絡，並完成了我們與投資者的首次 ESG 路演。此外，在我們的核心業務中，我們一直致力於新產品開發以支持可持續發展優先事項。這包括提高新軌道車設計和計劃的效率，例如我們的可持續轉換計劃，使我們能夠重新利用現有軌道車並延長其零部件的使用壽命。

To date, our sustainable railcar conversion program has reused over 54 million pounds of steel. Our ESG initiatives are ongoing, and I look forward to keeping you updated on our progress through the year.

迄今為止，我們的可持續軌道車改造計劃已經重複使用了超過 5400 萬磅的鋼材。我們的 ESG 舉措正在進行中，我期待著讓您了解我們這一年的最新進展。

And now turn with me to Slide 3 to talk about our key messages from today's call, which we will expand on later in our prepared remarks. Our fourth quarter GAAP EPS from continuing operations was $0.46 and adjusted EPS from continuing operations was $0.44, up $0.10 sequentially and $0.36 year-over-year.

現在和我一起轉到幻燈片 3，談談我們今天電話會議的關鍵信息，我們將在稍後的準備好的評論中對此進行擴展。我們第四季度來自持續經營的 GAAP 每股收益為 0.46 美元，來自持續經營的調整後每股收益為 0.44 美元，環比上漲 0.10 美元，同比上漲 0.36 美元。

For the full year, GAAP EPS was $1.02 and adjusted EPS of $0.94 was up 176% over 2021. Given the unexpected labor, supply chain and rail service challenges we faced in 2022 that impacted our ability to deliver cars at the pace we expected, we are proud of what we accomplished and the growth we achieved in 2022. Furthermore, when we look ahead, we also have reason to be optimistic. We ended the year with our future lease rate differential or FLRD, at 25.1%. We view this as a good predictor of future rate growth in the leasing segment and the high FLRD is an indicator of continued broad-based strength in the railcar leasing market.

全年，GAAP 每股收益為 1.02 美元，調整後每股收益為 0.94 美元，比 2021 年增長了 176%。鑑於我們在 2022 年面臨的意外勞動力、供應鍊和鐵路服務挑戰影響了我們按預期速度交付汽車的能力，我們為我們在 2022 年取得的成就和增長感到自豪。此外，當我們展望未來時，我們也有理由保持樂觀。我們以 25.1% 的未來租賃利率差異或 FLRD 結束了這一年。我們認為這是租賃領域未來利率增長的良好預測指標，高 FLRD 是軌道車輛租賃市場持續廣泛走強的一個指標。

The FLRD calculates the implied change in lease rates for railcar leases expiring over the next 4 quarters by applying the most recently transacted quarterly lease rate for each railcar type. The FLRD also accounts for current market rates, which remains strong despite uncertain economic sentiment. The key to remember is that industry supply has tightened and energy cost and supply chain planning have increased the importance of visibility and control and logistics planning for businesses. Trinity has a unique advantage as both a producer of railcars and a beneficiary of solid leasing fundamentals. The rest of the industry either does 1 or the other for the most part, which can be challenging in periods of market volatility.

FLRD 通過應用每種軌道車類型的最近交易的季度租賃率來計算未來 4 個季度到期的軌道車租賃的隱含租賃率變化。 FLRD 還考慮了當前市場利率，儘管經濟情緒不確定，但市場利率仍然強勁。要記住的關鍵是，行業供應已經收緊，能源成本和供應鏈規劃增加了企業可見性和控制以及物流規劃的重要性。 Trinity 既是軌道車生產商，又是穩固租賃基礎的受益者，具有獨特的優勢。該行業的其他公司在大多數情況下要么做一種，要么做另一種，這在市場波動時期可能具有挑戰性。

We are introducing our 2023 EPS guidance of $1.50 to $1.70. At the midpoint, this represents EPS growth of 70% over 2022 and reflects higher deliveries, higher lease rates and improved segment margins. And finally, in the fourth quarter, we completed our acquisition of Holden America, our second acquisition of 2022. Eric will discuss this acquisition and our general view on future acquisitions.

我們推出 2023 年 EPS 指導值 1.50 美元至 1.70 美元。從中點來看，這代表每股收益比 2022 年增長 70%，反映出更高的交付量、更高的租賃率和更高的分部利潤率。最後，在第四季度，我們完成了對 Holden America 的收購，這是我們 2022 年的第二次收購。Eric 將討論此次收購以及我們對未來收購的總體看法。

And now let's turn to Slide 4 for a market update. While we continue to feel the impact of railroad labor shortages on rail service and traffic, there have recently been some improvements in rail service metrics that give us hope that we have seen the worst. But the number of operating employees remains a key constraint for carriers heading into 2023. Without significant hiring, rail service improvements will be tough to maintain.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 4 了解市場更新。雖然我們繼續感受到鐵路勞動力短缺對鐵路服務和交通的影響，但最近鐵路服務指標有所改善，這讓我們希望我們已經看到了最壞的情況。但運營員工的數量仍然是承運人進入 2023 年的主要製約因素。如果不大量招聘，鐵路服務的改善將難以維持。

We saw 2022 railcar load volumes in the year even with 2021. Markets like grain and automotive carried meaningful momentum into the new year, but other markets such as chemical and metals experienced notable headwinds late in 2022. At the same time, the number of railcars in storage ticked up, consistent with normal seasonal trends and the volatility in carload traffic but still remained well below the 5-year average. We continue to expect the existing fleet of railcars to remain tight in 2023 and replacement needs to drive new railcar demand.

與 2021 年相比，我們在這一年看到了 2022 輛軌道車的裝載量。穀物和汽車等市場在新的一年裡表現出明顯的勢頭，但化工和金屬等其他市場在 2022 年末經歷了明顯的逆風。與此同時，軌道車的數量存儲量略有上升，與正常的季節性趨勢和貨運量的波動一致，但仍遠低於 5 年平均水平。我們繼續預計現有的軌道車車隊在 2023 年將保持緊張，更換需求將推動新的軌道車需求。

Moving to the bottom of the slide, I already mentioned our FLRD is above 25%, which is a significant step up from where it was last quarter. Our lease fleet utilization in the fourth quarter held steady at 97.9%, which is the same levels we saw pre-pandemic and is evidence of a tight fleet. We received orders for 3,015 railcars in the quarter and delivered 4,400. We ended the year with a backlog of 32,270 railcars valued at $3.9 billion. We expect to deliver approximately 49% of this backlog in 2023. And given the multiyear order we booked in the third quarter, we expect some of this backlog to extend as late as 2028.

轉到幻燈片底部，我已經提到我們的 FLRD 超過 25%，這比上一季度有了顯著提高。我們在第四季度的租賃機隊利用率穩定在 97.9%，這與我們在大流行前看到的水平相同，是機隊緊張的證據。我們在本季度收到了 3,015 輛軌道車的訂單，交付了 4,400 輛。年底，我們積壓了 32,270 輛軌道車，價值 39 億美元。我們預計將在 2023 年交付約 49% 的積壓訂單。鑑於我們在第三季度預訂的多年訂單，我們預計其中一些積壓訂單將延至 2028 年。

Our backlog in recent inquiry levels represent replacement level demand and our customers need these cars for supply chain management which gives us confidence and visibility into our delivery forecast.

我們最近詢價水平的積壓代表更換水平需求，我們的客戶需要這些汽車進行供應鏈管理，這使我們對交付預測充滿信心和可見性。

Slide 5 shows the fourth quarter performance year-over-year. Our quarterly revenue of $591 million was up 25% as compared to a year ago. And our fourth quarter adjusted EPS of $0.44 was up 450%, while our cash flow from continuing ops in the quarter of $62 million was down 69%, our adjusted free cash flow of $138 million was up 394%.

幻燈片 5 顯示了第四季度的同比表現。我們的季度收入為 5.91 億美元，與一年前相比增長了 25%。我們第四季度調整後的每股收益為 0.44 美元，增長了 450%，而我們本季度來自持續運營的現金流為 6200 萬美元，下降了 69%，調整後的自由現金流為 1.38 億美元，增長了 394%。

Slide 6 shows our full year 2022 performance as compared to 2021. Our revenue just below $2 billion, was up 30% from a year prior and our full year adjusted EPS improved by 176% as I previously mentioned. Additionally, our railcar deliveries improved by 50% in 2022 and our ending backlog was $3.9 billion.

幻燈片 6 顯示了我們 2022 年全年與 2021 年相比的表現。我們的收入略低於 20 億美元，比去年同期增長 30%，正如我之前提到的，我們全年調整後的每股收益增長了 176%。此外，我們的軌道車交付量在 2022 年提高了 50%，我們的期末積壓訂單為 39 億美元。

For the full year, cash flow was impacted by elevated working capital related to higher volumes of railcar deliveries and continued supply chain challenges. When you look at the year-over-year cash flow variance, it is worth noting that 2021 benefited from collecting $438 million in income tax receivables.

全年，現金流量受到與軌道車交付量增加和供應鏈持續挑戰相關的營運資金增加的影響。當您查看同比現金流量差異時，值得注意的是，2021 年受益於收取了 4.38 億美元的應收所得稅。

Please turn with me to Slide 7 for segment results. I've already talked about the strong FLRD and fleet utilization in the leasing segment. But I also wanted to mention our renewal success rate in the fourth quarter of 85%. Our success rate for the entire year was 82%, a level we have not seen since 2014. This success rate shows that even as we are able to increase rates at renewal to match rising current rates, customers continue to value holding the railcar and thus accept the higher rates. In short, the railcar fleet is still tight, and we have a lot of visibility and stability on the leasing side of our business.

請和我一起轉到幻燈片 7 以了解細分結果。我已經談到了租賃領域強大的 FLRD 和車隊利用率。但我還想提一下我們在第四季度的續約成功率為 85%。我們全年的成功率為 82%，這是自 2014 年以來的最高水平。這一成功率表明，即使我們能夠提高續訂費率以匹配當前不斷上漲的費率，客戶仍然重視持有軌道車，因此接受更高的利率。簡而言之，軌道車車隊仍然緊張，我們在業務租賃方面的知名度和穩定性很高。

Leasing segment revenue of $197 million in the fourth quarter reflects improved rates and net lease fleet investment activities. Our FLRD has now been positive for 6 quarters, and we are starting to see those higher rates reflected in our financials. Leasing and management operating profit margins were 38.3% in the fourth quarter and were up sequentially due to net lease fleet investment activities. Margins were down year-over-year because of a general increase in maintenance, which tends to be cyclical in nature as well as higher depreciation expense, mainly due to our sustainable railcar conversion program.

第四季度租賃部門收入為 1.97 億美元，反映了利率的提高和租賃機隊淨投資活動。我們的 FLRD 現在已經連續 6 個季度為正，我們開始看到我們的財務狀況反映了這些較高的利率。第四季度租賃和管理營業利潤率為 38.3%，由於淨租賃機隊投資活動而環比上升。利潤率同比下降的原因是維護費用普遍增加（這在本質上往往是周期性的）以及折舊費用增加，這主要是由於我們的可持續軌道車改造計劃。

In the Rail Products segment, quarterly revenue of $656 million was up sequentially and year-over-year due to higher deliveries and favorable pricing and product mix. Our pace of deliveries picked up as the year progressed, and we exited the year at a higher run rate. In the first half of 2022, we delivered just under 5,000 railcars which improved to over 8,000 in the second half of the year. Our operating margins in the Rail Products segment came in at 2.8% in the fourth quarter and 2.8% for the full year. We spoke at length in our third quarter call about operating inefficiencies and supply chain issues pulling down margins. Unfortunately, these issues continue to impact us in the fourth quarter.

在鐵路產品部門，由於交付量增加以及有利的定價和產品組合，季度收入為 6.56 億美元，環比和同比增長。隨著時間的推移，我們的交付速度加快了，我們以更高的運行率結束了這一年。 2022 年上半年，我們交付了不到 5,000 輛軌道車，下半年增加到 8,000 多輛。我們在鐵路產品部門的營業利潤率在第四季度為 2.8%，全年為 2.8%。我們在第三季度的電話會議上詳細談到了運營效率低下和供應鏈問題拉低了利潤率。不幸的是，這些問題在第四季度繼續影響我們。

In addition to continued rail service disruptions, supplier deliveries have not kept pace with our scheduled needs and railcar completion on several lines fell behind. Furthermore, capacity at facilities has increased more slowly than expected to meet our original production schedule. Labor was a challenge, with higher attrition requiring more hiring and onboarding than expected, which was significant given the increase in hiring we needed to achieve to match an increased production level, specifically in Mexico.

除了持續的鐵路服務中斷外，供應商的交付跟不上我們預定的需求，多條線路的軌道車完工也落後了。此外，設施產能的增長速度低於預期，無法滿足我們最初的生產計劃。勞動力是一個挑戰，更高的人員流失率需要比預期更多的招聘和入職，考慮到我們需要增加招聘以匹配生產水平的提高，特別是在墨西哥，這一點意義重大。

The impact of rail service, supply chain and labor issues was over 400 basis points of efficiency lost in operating profit. This means if our efficiency had performed as expected, our quarterly margin in the segment would have been about 7%, which is in the high single-digit range we anticipated. We still expect to exit the planning period with Rail Products margins in the high single digits as we expect these issues to ease through 2023.

鐵路服務、供應鍊和勞動力問題的影響是營業利潤效率損失超過 400 個基點。這意味著如果我們的效率達到預期，我們在該部門的季度利潤率將約為 7%，處於我們預期的高個位數範圍內。我們仍然希望以高個位數的鐵路產品利潤率退出規劃期，因為我們預計這些問題將在 2023 年得到緩解。

Finally, moving to Slide 8, I want to point out a few more key accomplishments. In December, we raised our quarterly dividend to $0.26 per share, an increase of approximately 13%, delivering on our 3-year goal of double-digit dividend growth. Additionally, our Board approved a new share repurchase authorization of $250 million with no expiration. This gives us more flexibility on timing as we consider various methods of capital deployment.

最後，轉到幻燈片 8，我想指出更多的關鍵成就。 12 月，我們將季度股息提高至每股 0.26 美元，增幅約為 13%，實現了我們 3 年兩位數股息增長的目標。此外，我們的董事會批准了 2.5 億美元的新股票回購授權，沒有到期。當我們考慮各種資本部署方法時，這使我們在時間安排上更加靈活。

Our net lease fleet investment for the year was $178 million, slightly below our anticipated range of $250 million to $300 million. This is due to both a stronger-than-expected secondary market, driving higher-than-expected railcar sales and lower delivery to the lease fleet given some of the supply chain issues impacting our delivery rate.

我們今年的淨租賃車隊投資為 1.78 億美元，略低於我們 2.5 億美元至 3 億美元的預期範圍。這是由於二級市場強於預期，推動了高於預期的軌道車銷售，以及由於一些供應鏈問題影響了我們的交付率，導致租賃車隊的交付量減少。

Our pretax ROE was 10.4% for the full year. We ended 2021 with a full year ROE of 3.4%. So 2022 marked a significant and sustainable improvement towards our strategic goal of a mid-teen ROE. 2023 marks the third year of our 3-year plan we introduced at the end of 2020. On our third quarter call, we modified our operating cash flow target to a range of $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion to account for the sale of our highway business, higher working capital needs, and geography of railcar sales. Other than that adjustment, we are on track to hit those 3-year targets and we continue to work towards hitting these metrics.

我們全年的稅前淨資產收益率為 10.4%。我們以 3.4% 的全年股本回報率結束了 2021 年。因此，2022 年標誌著我們朝著中期 ROE 的戰略目標取得了重大且可持續的改進。 2023 年是我們在 2020 年底推出的 3 年計劃的第三年。在第三季度電話會議上，我們將經營現金流目標修改為 12 億美元至 14 億美元，以計入我們高速公路業務的銷售、更高的營運資金需求以及軌道車銷售的地域。除了調整之外，我們有望實現這些 3 年目標，並且我們將繼續努力實現這些指標。

Before I turn the call to Eric, I wanted to talk about a few themes in our business. First, despite supply chain and rail service challenges, we continue to see strong inquiries and have great customer relationships which gives us confidence in order flow in the near future. In addition to EPS growth in 2023, I also want to emphasize that we are seeing a significant amount of operating leverage in our business and expect to continue seeing higher returns, which we think is a more impactful measurement of our business given the value of our lease fleet and the visibility we have into our business.

在我把電話轉給埃里克之前，我想談談我們業務中的幾個主題。首先，儘管供應鍊和鐵路服務面臨挑戰，但我們繼續看到大量詢問並擁有良好的客戶關係，這使我們對不久的將來的訂單流充滿信心。除了 2023 年的每股收益增長外，我還想強調，我們的業務中存在大量的經營槓桿，並預計將繼續看到更高的回報，我們認為，鑑於我們的價值，這是對我們業務更有影響力的衡量標準租賃車隊和我們對業務的了解。

We continue to make organizational changes and initiatives to focus on positioning our manufacturing and leasing businesses to maximize value creation through tough external headwinds. The Rail Products Group is a strategic asset that provides revenue diversity and competitive advantage, but tends to be more volatile given this exposure to market and labor issues in the short term, which has certainly been the case this year. However, over a multiyear period, the business trends with the same railcar fundamentals as a leasing business, and there is a significant return to be made.

我們繼續進行組織變革和舉措，專注於定位我們的製造和租賃業務，以在艱難的外部逆風中最大限度地創造價值。 Rail Products Group 是一項戰略資產，可提供收入多樣性和競爭優勢，但鑑於短期內面臨的市場和勞工問題，其波動性往往更大，今年的情況確實如此。然而，在多年的時間裡，軌道車的業務趨勢與租賃業務的基本面相同，並且可以獲得顯著的回報。

In closing, despite unpredictable macroeconomic backdrop, I am proud of what our team accomplished this year. Operating any business does not come without challenges, but I have confidence in our ability to execute in 2023 on our 3-year goals, given the strength of our business model and the team we have in place.

最後，儘管宏觀經濟背景不可預測，但我為我們團隊今年取得的成就感到自豪。經營任何企業都面臨挑戰，但鑑於我們的業務模式和現有團隊的實力，我對我們在 2023 年實現 3 年目標的能力充滿信心。

And now I'll turn the call over to Eric to review our financial results.

現在我會把電話轉給埃里克來審查我們的財務業績。

Good morning, everyone. I would like to start by congratulating Jean on being named Railcar Women of the Year by the League of Railway Women for 2022. I would also like to give a little more color on the Holden acquisition that Jean mentioned. Holden is a manufacturer of market-leading multi-level vehicle securing and protection systems, gravity-outlet gates and gate accessories for freight rail in North America. We purchased Holden for an initial purchase price of $70 million with another $10 million minimum to be paid in installments over the next 2 years. There is more information on this acquisition in our 10-K, which we expect to file later today. .

大家，早安。首先，我想祝賀 Jean 被鐵路女性聯盟評為 2022 年年度鐵路女性。我還想對 Jean 提到的收購 Holden 的事情多說幾句。 Holden 是北美貨運鐵路市場領先的多層車輛安全和保護系統、重力出口閘門和閘門配件的製造商。我們以 7000 萬美元的初始購買價格收購了 Holden，並在未來 2 年內分期支付至少 1000 萬美元。我們的 10-K 中有關於此次收購的更多信息，我們預計將在今天晚些時候提交。 .

This acquisition fits well with our strategy to increase exposure to less cyclical and higher margin aftermarket parts, giving us more opportunities to serve our customers and diversify our revenue stream. Furthermore, as we see automobile preference move more toward SUVs and heavier electric vehicles, securement systems will become even more critical and we look forward to being a market-leading shop provider and continue to provide the quality and service that Holden's customers have come to expect.

此次收購非常符合我們的戰略，即增加對周期性較低、利潤率較高的售後市場零部件的敞口，為我們提供更多服務客戶和實現收入來源多元化的機會。此外，隨著我們看到汽車偏好更多地轉向 SUV 和更重的電動汽車，安全系統將變得更加重要，我們期待成為市場領先的商店供應商，並繼續提供 Holden 客戶所期望的質量和服務.

We completed 2 acquisitions in 2022, Quasar and Holden and are in the process of integrating both these operations into our platform. We see value in optimizing our business with strategic acquisitions and continue to look for the right opportunities, but remain selective in our evaluation of potential targets.

我們在 2022 年完成了 2 項收購，即 Quasar 和 Holden，並且正在將這兩項業務整合到我們的平台中。我們看到通過戰略收購優化業務的價值，並繼續尋找合適的機會，但在評估潛在目標時仍保持選擇性。

If you turn to Slide 9, I'll start my comments with the income statement. In the fourth quarter, our consolidated revenue of $591 million improved sequentially and year-over-year, due to higher external railcar deliveries and improved pricing. Our adjusted EPS of $0.44 per share in the quarter, also a sequential and year-over-year improvement benefited from $236 million in lease portfolio sales, driving a gain of $55 million.

如果你翻到幻燈片 9，我將從損益表開始我的評論。第四季度，我們的綜合收入為 5.91 億美元，環比和同比均有所提高，這歸功於外部軌道車交付量增加和定價改善。本季度我們調整後的每股收益為 0.44 美元，這也是受益於 2.36 億美元的租賃組合銷售額的環比和同比改善，帶來了 5500 萬美元的收益。

Moving to the cash flow statement. Our full year cash flow from our continuing operations was $9 million, and our adjusted free cash flow for the year was $138 million after investments and dividends. As has been the case through the year, we continue to have elevated levels of working capital to support a ramp-up in production and to mitigate disruptions in the supply chain. Additionally, our operating cash flow was negatively impacted by a higher receivables balance associated with deliveries late in the year.

轉到現金流量表。我們來自持續經營的全年現金流量為 900 萬美元，扣除投資和股息後，我們當年調整後的自由現金流量為 1.38 億美元。與過去一年的情況一樣，我們繼續提高營運資金水平，以支持提高產量並減輕供應鏈中斷的情況。此外，我們的經營現金流受到與年末交付相關的較高應收賬款餘額的負面影響。

In 2021, our free cash flow benefited from collecting approximately $438 million of income tax receivables. In line with our guidance, we ended the year with $38 million in investment in manufacturing and general CapEx, and we returned $154 million to shareholders through repurchases and dividends. Secondary market sales remained strong all year, and we recorded some sizable gains on railcar sales. As long as we are delivering railcars into our lease fleet, we expect to complete secondary market sales as an ordinary course of business, assuming market conditions remain favorable.

2021 年，我們的自由現金流受益於收取了大約 4.38 億美元的應收所得稅。根據我們的指導，我們在製造和一般資本支出方面投資了 3800 萬美元，並通過回購和股息向股東返還了 1.54 億美元。二級市場銷售全年保持強勁，我們在軌道車銷售方面取得了可觀的收益。只要我們將軌道車交付給我們的租賃車隊，我們就希望在市場條件保持有利的情況下，將完成二級市場銷售作為正常的業務過程。

This shifts cash flows from operating activities to cash flow from investment activities, even in a period of high deliveries. This is because the cash is reflected in operation when we sell our railcar directly out of our manufacturing but the cash that reflected investments when we sell a railcar out of the lease fleet.

這將現金流從經營活動轉移到投資活動的現金流，即使在高交付期也是如此。這是因為當我們直接從我們的製造中出售我們的軌道車時，現金反映在運營中，而當我們從租賃車隊中出售軌道車時，現金反映在投資中。

As Jean mentioned, our net lease fleet investment was $178 million for the year. In 2022, approximately 36% of our manufactured railcars were delivered to our lease fleet to meet customer demand, which was a gross increase in the fleet of $929 million. In keeping with our goal of modest fleet growth and aided by a strong secondary market, we sold approximately $751 million of railcars out of our fleet, which allows us to optimize the composition of railcars in our fleet to serve customer demand and keep utilization high.

正如 Jean 提到的，我們當年的淨租賃車隊投資為 1.78 億美元。 2022 年，我們製造的大約 36% 的軌道車被交付給我們的租賃車隊以滿足客戶需求，這使車隊的毛增長達到 9.29 億美元。為了實現我們適度增長車隊的目標，並在強大的二級市場的幫助下，我們從車隊中售出了大約 7.51 億美元的軌道車，這使我們能夠優化車隊中軌道車的構成，以滿足客戶需求並保持高利用率。

Please turn to Slide 10. We ended the year with liquidity of $398 million, representing cash and equivalents, revolver availability and warehouse availability. Our loan to value of the wholly owned fleet was 65.7% at the end of the year, remaining in line with our target LTV of 60% to 65%. We expect liquidity to improve in 2023 as we lower our working capital with improved supply chain conditions and higher deliveries. Our loan matures at attractive rates considering the market dynamics.

請轉到幻燈片 10。我們年底的流動資金為 3.98 億美元，包括現金和等價物、可用左輪手槍和可用倉庫。截至年底，我們的全資機隊貸款價值率為 65.7%，與我們 60% 至 65% 的目標 LTV 保持一致。我們預計流動性將在 2023 年改善，因為我們通過改善供應鏈條件和提高交付量來降低營運資金。考慮到市場動態，我們的貸款以具有吸引力的利率到期。

And now please turn to Slide 11. Let's talk about some of the expectations for 2023. When we set our 3-year plan at the end of 2020, we stated we expected industry deliveries to sustain a replacement demand level, which we viewed as approximately 120,000 railcars over the 3 years. In the first 2 years of the plan, the industry delivered just over 70,000 railcars.

現在請轉到幻燈片 11。讓我們談談對 2023 年的一些預期。當我們在 2020 年底制定 3 年計劃時，我們表示我們預計行業交付將維持替代需求水平，我們認為這大約是3 年內生產 120,000 輛軌道車。在該計劃的前兩年，該行業交付了 70,000 多輛軌道車。

We expect 2023 industry deliveries of 40,000 to 45,000, meaning we will end slightly below the 120,000 we forecasted at the end of 2020 for the 3-year period. This number excludes sustainable conversions, which have been significant over the planning period. For Trinity specifically, we expect to deliver at or near our historic market share of industry deliveries. We continue to view this build cycle as rational, which will benefit our lease fleet through the cycle. Our 3-year planned net fleet investment was $500 million to $600 million, which means we expect a net fleet investment of approximately $250 million to $350 million in 2023 to land in the forecasted range. Included in this investment forecast is new railcar deliveries to the lease fleet as well as sustainable railcar conversions and modifications on our existing fleet and secondary market additions, offset by sales in the secondary market. This is slightly higher than what we have invested in recent years.

我們預計 2023 年行業交付量為 40,000 到 45,000，這意味著我們將略低於我們在 2020 年底預測的 3 年期間的 120,000。這個數字不包括在規劃期間很重要的可持續轉換。具體來說，對於 Trinity，我們希望能夠達到或接近我們歷史上的行業交付市場份額。我們繼續認為這個建造週期是合理的，這將使我們的租賃車隊在整個週期中受益。我們 3 年計劃的機隊淨投資為 5 億美元至 6 億美元，這意味著我們預計 2023 年的機隊淨投資約為 2.5 億美元至 3.5 億美元，將落在預測範圍內。該投資預測包括向租賃車隊交付的新軌道車，以及對我們現有車隊和二級市場新增的可持續軌道車改造和改造，這些都被二級市場的銷售額所抵消。這比我們最近幾年的投資略高。

While a smaller percentage of railcars we deliver will go into our lease fleet than last year on an absolute basis, we expect similar internal deliveries and expect higher eliminations on a dollar basis due to a higher volume of deliveries at higher prices. Our current backlog to leasing group for new railcars is $459 million. Not all of this will deliver in 2023, and railcar sales will offset deliveries to the lease fleet in our full year net lease fleet investment.

雖然與去年相比，我們交付的有軌車進入租賃車隊的比例絕對低於去年，但我們預計內部交付量會類似，並且由於交付量更高、價格更高，預計按美元計算的淘汰率更高。我們目前積壓的新軌道車租賃集團訂單為 4.59 億美元。並非所有這些都將在 2023 年交付，軌道車的銷售將抵消我們全年淨租賃車隊投資中對租賃車隊的交付。

Additionally, we expect manufacturing and other general capital expenditures of $40 million to $50 million similar to prior years. We are introducing preliminary 2023 adjusted EPS guidance of $1.50 to $1.70, which represents substantial growth over 2022 results. While we do expect some easing in the labor, rail service and supply chain challenges of 2023 these issues do not go away overnight and thus are reflected in our guidance. We expect the pace of deliveries through the year to be relatively consistent, but quarterly consolidated financial results will be lumpy driven by timing of planned maintenance expense and net lease fleet activity.

此外，我們預計製造和其他一般資本支出為 4000 萬至 5000 萬美元，與往年類似。我們將 2023 年調整後的每股收益初步指引定為 1.50 美元至 1.70 美元，這代表著 2022 年業績的大幅增長。雖然我們確實預計 2023 年勞動力、鐵路服務和供應鏈挑戰會有所緩解，但這些問題不會在一夜之間消失，因此會反映在我們的指引中。我們預計全年交付速度將相對穩定，但季度合併財務業績將因計劃維護費用和淨租賃車隊活動的時間安排而起伏不定。

In closing, we have taken actions to optimize the balance sheet and improve the operating leverage of our business over the last several years. As we enter 2023, I am confident in our company's ability to outperform in a challenging environment and realize cash generation and higher returns and ultimately higher shareholder value.

最後，在過去幾年中，我們已採取行動優化資產負債表並提高我們業務的經營槓桿。隨著我們進入 2023 年，我相信我們公司有能力在充滿挑戰的環境中表現出色，實現現金產生和更高的回報，並最終實現更高的股東價值。

And now, operator, we are ready for our first question.

現在，接線員，我們準備好回答第一個問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from Allison Poliniak with Wells Fargo. .

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自 Wells Fargo 的 Allison Poliniak。 .

I just want to go back to your comments on -- well, related to the lease side, storage levels still low, but they are ticking up, just want to get a little bit more color on your side. Like I know you mentioned seasonal, but is there any worry that we're actually seeing some incremental storage because of some of the weakness out there? And then with that lease renewal success rate, what's a good range to think of as we look at '23?

我只想回到你的評論——好吧，與租賃方面相關，存儲水平仍然很低，但它們正在上升，只是想在你這邊多一點顏色。就像我知道你提到的季節性一樣，但是否有人擔心我們實際上會因為一些弱點而看到一些增量存儲？然後根據續租成功率，當我們看到 23 年時，可以考慮的一個好的範圍是多少？

Okay. Well, thanks, Allison. When we look at 85% success rate on renewals, we haven't seen that since 2014. The market is still very tight out there. And so what we're seeing go into storage is more some of the seasonal not grain cars or not needing grain cars, consumer side, there's a little bit of weakness there that type of car going in. So we expect the market to stay tight, especially as you look at overall what's going on or expected to happen with attrition and then the new railcars going back into the system.

好的。好吧，謝謝，艾莉森。當我們看到 85% 的續訂成功率時，我們自 2014 年以來就沒有看到過。那裡的市場仍然非常緊張。因此，我們看到進入存儲的更多是一些季節性的非糧食汽車或不需要糧食汽車，消費者方面，這種類型的汽車進入市場有點疲軟。所以我們預計市場會保持緊張，特別是當你總體上看正在發生或預期會發生的減員，然後新的軌道車又回到系統中時。

Got it. And then within rail manufacturing, you highlighted a number of headwinds to the margin this past quarter. And just I'm trying to reconcile, you're looking for a sequential improvement there with deliveries remaining stable. Are you limiting sort of that capacity addition just because of the labor side that you're seeing? Just trying to understand what drives that margin higher here just with the level of deliveries at this point that you guys are indicating?

知道了。然後在鐵路製造業中，您強調了上個季度利潤率的一些不利因素。只是我試圖調和，你正在尋找一個連續的改進，交付保持穩定。您是否只是因為您看到的勞動力方面而限制了這種能力的增加？只是想了解是什麼推動了這裡的利潤率，只是你們目前所指示的交付水平？

Great question. So when you look at it, some of the things that we've learned this past year is we've got a really strong backlog that allows us to have good visibility. We're extending the time or the view that we get to the supply base to be able to see that. We still have seen at the end of last year, I think we talked about it, fewer rail suppliers to provide product and they're still having issues.

很好的問題。所以當你看它時，我們在過去一年中學到的一些東西是我們有一個非常強大的積壓，這讓我們有很好的知名度。我們正在延長我們到達供應基地的時間或觀點，以便能夠看到這一點。我們在去年年底仍然看到，我想我們已經討論過了，提供產品的鐵路供應商越來越少，而且他們仍然存在問題。

As we went into the fourth quarter, and want to ramp our production, their ability to deliver on time went down. So it went the opposite direction. They had stabilized at the lower run rate. So now they've got a good view for the year of what we need, and we're expecting them as the year goes on to get better at delivering on time. For us, we took some actions in the fourth quarter as far as labor goes, and we've seen that actually come back down, so get a little bit better on our ability to attract and then maintain or keep those employees. So we're not at the level of employees we need for the full year production yet, but we're getting a lot closer.

當我們進入第四季度並希望提高產量時，他們按時交付的能力下降了。所以它走向了相反的方向。他們已經穩定在較低的運行率。所以現在他們對我們今年的需求有了很好的了解，我們期待他們隨著時間的推移在按時交付方面做得更好。對我們來說，就勞動力而言，我們在第四季度採取了一些行動，我們已經看到這種情況實際上有所回落，所以我們在吸引、留住或留住這些員工的能力上要稍微好一點。所以我們還沒有達到全年生產所需的員工水平，但我們越來越接近了。

Our next question will come from Matt Elkott with Cowen.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Matt Elkott 和 Cowen。

So at first glance, it looks like maybe you're expecting lower deliveries in 2023, but because the high end of your delivery guidance for the industry is lower and the low end is actually lower than the actual 2022 number. But then, Eric, based on the remarks you made, I think you mentioned you expect your share to be consistent with 2022. And I think that was 34%. So if I take the midpoint of your own -- of your delivery guidance for the industry, I'm coming up with just over 14,000 cars for '23, so that's up about 5%. Is that math okay?

所以乍一看，您似乎預計 2023 年的交付量會降低，但因為您對行業交付指導的高端較低，而低端實際上低於 2022 年的實際數字。但是，埃里克，根據你的發言，我想你提到你希望你的份額與 2022 年保持一致。我認為那是 34%。因此，如果我採用你自己的中點 - 你對行業的交付指導，我會為 23 年推出超過 14,000 輛汽車，因此增長了約 5%。那數學好嗎？

No. Matt, sorry, if I wasn't clear. I talked about historical market share ranges so in that 30% to 40% range. So if you take the 40% to 45% and apply a 30% to 40%, then you'll get a band. And our deliveries will be up more than what you're -- it's more than what you calculated.

不，馬特，對不起，如果我不清楚的話。我談到了歷史市場份額範圍，所以在 30% 到 40% 的範圍內。因此，如果您採用 40% 到 45% 並應用 30% 到 40%，那麼您將得到一個樂隊。我們的交付量將比你的多——比你計算的多。

So last year, remember, we had 5,000 cars delivered the first half and 8,000 in the second half. And I just said that we're not at the number of employees we need for the full year production to help you a little bit on where we're expecting to go.

所以去年，請記住，我們上半年交付了 5,000 輛汽車，下半年交付了 8,000 輛。我只是說我們沒有達到全年生產所需的員工人數，無法幫助您了解我們預期的發展方向。

Okay. Got it. That's helpful. And then my next question is, I know you had some benefits, I guess, from storm recovery last year that affected the margins positively, but you also have the supply chain disruptions this year. Your deliveries were up year-over-year by 36%, but your margin was down. Can you help us understand how much was it -- how much was the storm recovery benefit part of that versus the supply chain disruption this quarter?

好的。知道了。這很有幫助。然後我的下一個問題是，我知道你從去年的風暴恢復中獲得了一些好處，這對利潤率產生了積極影響，但今年你也遇到了供應鏈中斷。您的交付量同比增長 36%，但您的利潤下降了。您能否幫助我們了解它有多少 - 與本季度的供應鏈中斷相比，風暴恢復收益的一部分是多少？

So the storm benefit we adjusted out. And so that's the big difference between the $0.94 and the $1.02. And so -- and in the slides, there's more color on -- in the rail segment around, especially in the quarters that those recoveries were received, you'll see that in their math.

所以暴利我們調整掉了。這就是 0.94 美元和 1.02 美元之間的巨大差異。因此 - 在幻燈片中，有更多的顏色 - 在周圍的鐵路部分，特別是在收到這些恢復的季度，你會在他們的數學中看到這一點。

In terms of the headwinds outweighed the storm recoveries by a wide margin. Jean mentioned 40 basis points in the fourth quarter. That's -- that is much more than the storm recoveries.

就逆風而言，遠遠超過了風暴的恢復。讓在第四季度提到了 40 個基點。這比風暴恢復要多得多。

Got it. And then just 1 last industry-related question. Do you guys foresee any potential changes to like Class II flammable liquid regulation when it comes to tank cars or any other type of cars similar to what we saw for crude regulations after Lac-Mégantic?

知道了。然後是最後一個與行業相關的問題。你們是否預見到任何潛在的變化，例如在涉及油罐車或任何其他類型的汽車時，類似於我們在 Lac-Mégantic 之後看到的原油法規？

So there's a lot of discussion going on and a lot of phone calls. I think we got to wait for the NTSB to come out with their findings on what happened. But I would expect movement in some sort, either on safety, how they ensure that the trains are shaped going through on manifest sharing other things like that, but we'll have to wait and see. We're discussing right now.

所以有很多討論正在進行，也有很多電話。我認為我們必須等待 NTSB 就所發生的事情得出他們的調查結果。但我希望在某種程度上採取行動，無論是安全方面的，他們如何確保火車的形狀通過清單共享其他類似的東西，但我們必須拭目以待。我們正在討論。

Our next question will come from Justin Long with Stephens.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Justin Long 和 Stephens。

I wanted to ask about rail product group margins. Jean, it sounds like you expect to be in that high single-digit range by the time we exit this year. But can you help us think through the cadence of margins assumed in the guidance and how you expect that 400 basis point headwind you called out to fade over the course of the year?

我想問一下鐵路產品組的利潤率。 Jean，聽起來你希望在我們今年退出時達到那個高的個位數範圍。但是，您能否幫助我們思考指南中假設的利潤率節奏，以及您如何預計您呼籲的 400 個基點逆風在一年中消退？

So we're not giving quarterly guidance, but I will tell you that as Eric mentioned, we don't expect those headwinds to go away overnight. So we expect them to improve and go away throughout the year. So I would just say, take that into consideration as you're looking at the overall year or quarters.

所以我們不會給出季度指導，但我會告訴你，正如 Eric 提到的那樣，我們不希望這些逆風在一夜之間消失。因此，我們預計他們會在全年有所改善並消失。所以我只想說，在查看整個年度或季度時考慮到這一點。

And Eric, you did mention there would be some lumpiness, I think, in profitability. So is there any color you can give us around that comment as we think about modeling the quarters this year?

埃里克，你確實提到過，我認為盈利能力會有一些波動。那麼，在我們考慮為今年的季度建模時，您是否可以圍繞該評論給我們任何顏色？

Yes. I think, as Jean -- on the rail segment side, you see -- Jean mentioned the improvement. The lumpiness would come more from eliminations and car sales. This year, more or -- fewer of our deliveries will go to the lease fleet this year, which will mean there's fewer -- the investment in the fleet will be -- is in that $250 million to $350 million. But the car sales, especially when you think about the Wafra transaction, historically, we've done that in the second half of the year. This is year 3 in that 3-year program agreement. And so there will be some lumpiness from the gains on sale.

是的。我認為，正如讓——在鐵路部門方面，你看——讓提到了改進。塊狀更多來自淘汰和汽車銷售。今年，更多或更少的交付將交付給租賃車隊，這意味著更少——對車隊的投資將在 2.5 億美元至 3.5 億美元之間。但是汽車銷售，特別是當你考慮 Wafra 交易時，從歷史上看，我們在今年下半年就完成了。這是該 3 年計劃協議中的第 3 年。因此，銷售收益會有一些波動。

Okay. And last question I had was on cash flow. I was curious if you could share any expectation for 2023. I know there's some moving pieces with working capital that you mentioned? And also on the buyback with the new authorization, could you comment on what's getting factored into the EPS guidance for buybacks?

好的。我的最後一個問題是關於現金流的。我很好奇您是否可以分享對 2023 年的任何期望。我知道您提到了一些具有營運資金的活動？還有關於新授權的回購，您能否評論一下 EPS 回購指南中考慮的因素？

Yes. So when you look at buyback specifically, we've returned a lot of capital to shareholders over the last few years, certainly, and we did finish our last authorization and started a new authorization in December. I would characterize our share buybacks this year in terms of -- based on the earnings guidance to be more opportunistic and modest in terms of the amount of capital we're returning via share buybacks. I think we just raised the dividend in the fourth quarter to $0.26 per quarter. So that more of our capital to shareholders will come through that mechanism, at least as we're sitting here today. And then -- I'm sorry, on the first part of your question was on cash flow.

是的。因此，當你具體看回購時，我們在過去幾年裡向股東返還了大量資金，當然，我們確實完成了最後一次授權，並在 12 月開始了新的授權。我將根據收益指引來描述我們今年的股票回購，在我們通過股票回購返還的資本數量方面更具機會主義和適度。我認為我們剛剛將第四季度的股息提高到每季度 0.26 美元。因此，我們向股東提供的更多資本將通過該機制獲得，至少在我們今天坐在這裡時是這樣。然後 - 對不起，你問題的第一部分是關於現金流的。

Cash flow expectations.

現金流預期。

Yes. So when you go back to our 3-year Investor Day plan, we lowered that last quarter slightly -- the cat -- we're still in that range with the items that happened in the fourth quarter and where we're sitting today, we're maybe in the lower range -- lower part of that range, but our cash looks like it -- this platform can generate a significant amount of cash, and we expect that to continue in 2023.

是的。所以當你回到我們的 3 年投資者日計劃時，我們略微降低了上個季度 - 貓 - 我們仍然在第四季度發生的項目和我們今天坐的地方，我們可能處於較低的範圍——該範圍的較低部分，但我們的現金看起來像這樣——這個平台可以產生大量現金，我們預計這種情況將在 2023 年繼續。

Our next question will come from Gordon Johnson with GLJ.

我們的下一個問題將來自 GLJ 的 Gordon Johnson。

So maybe this one for Jean. Just taking a step back, looking at the U.S. economy. We -- looking at retail sales, the engine that drives the U.S. economy, now down 3 of the past 4 months. Real disposable income saw the surplus fall in 2022 dating back to the 1930s Great Depression. Real consumer spending on services was flat in December. Are there always monthly reading in nearly a year, real average weekly earnings are now down a record 21 months in a row. Auto sales growth slowed in January and 2022 was the worst in nearly a decade and home sales last year were the lowest since 2014. I know a lot of data points, but it just seems like we're taking that into account and also looking at Midwest region average truck rates or other delivery rates. It seems like things are looking pretty bad, not to sound too dire. But is the guidance you guys are giving back-end loaded? And if it is, do you see some risk to that? And then a follow-up.

所以也許這是給珍的。只是退後一步，看看美國經濟。我們——看看零售銷售，它是推動美國經濟的引擎，在過去 4 個月中有 3 個月下降。實際可支配收入在 2022 年出現盈餘下降，這可以追溯到 1930 年代的大蕭條時期。 12 月份實際消費者服務支出持平。近一年來總是有月度讀數，實際平均每週收入現在連續 21 個月下降創紀錄。 1 月份汽車銷售增長放緩，2022 年是近十年來最差的，去年的房屋銷售是 2014 年以來最低的。我知道很多數據點，但我們似乎正在考慮這一點，也在考慮中西部地區平均卡車運費或其他送貨費率。看起來事情看起來很糟糕，而不是聽起來太可怕了。但是你們給後端加載的指導是嗎？如果是，你認為這有什麼風險嗎？然後是跟進。

Sure. So if you look at manufacturing stats, November and December had seen a tick down, but they just came back up in January. So we saw a balance there. The consumer areas are absolutely the ones that are seeing the most softening. So intermodal would be in that range. But overall, we're still seeing very high utilization of cars. We're seeing traffic flat to 2021, and we're still seeing customers who are wanting to move more by rail.

當然。因此，如果您查看製造業統計數據，11 月和 12 月有所下降，但它們在 1 月才回升。所以我們在那裡看到了平衡。消費領域絕對是最疲軟的領域。所以多式聯運將在那個範圍內。但總的來說，我們仍然看到汽車的利用率非常高。我們看到到 2021 年交通量持平，我們仍然看到客戶希望更多地通過鐵路出行。

So we think we can survive or we would have a -- will be resistant to a mild recession. And if you look at our backlog, we got $3.9 billion in backlog sitting there, which gives us really good visibility into this year.

因此，我們認為我們可以生存下來，或者我們將能夠抵禦溫和的衰退。如果你看看我們的積壓訂單，我們有 39 億美元的積壓訂單，這讓我們對今年有了很好的了解。

And then just lastly, on the free cash flow. I know a question was asked there, but the burn this quarter, I think, on a -- just looking at operating cash flow less CapEx, roughly $900 million. Is there any plans with respect to capital decisions?

最後，關於自由現金流。我知道那裡有人問了一個問題，但我認為本季度的燒錢是 - 只看運營現金流減去資本支出，大約 9 億美元。在資本決策方面有什麼計劃嗎？

Yes, Gordon, this is Eric. If you back out your $900 million, I think you're looking at all the lease fleet investment and I'd just refer you to our adjusted cash flow in the disclosure where we kind of walked through the fleet investment is certainly -- the headline is a big number. But once you finance it, it doesn't require a lot of cash. And also a reminder, that's pretty tax-effective capital investment. And so from a cash flow standpoint, it's a relatively good answer. And I'd just refer you to our disclosure on that.

是的，戈登，這是埃里克。如果你放棄你的 9 億美元，我想你正在研究所有租賃車隊投資，我只想讓你參考我們在披露中調整後的現金流量，我們在其中經歷了車隊投資，當然是 - 標題是一個很大的數字。但是一旦你為它融資，它就不需要很多現金。還要提醒一下，這是非常節稅的資本投資。因此，從現金流的角度來看，這是一個相對較好的答案。我只想讓你參考我們對此的披露。

Our next question will come from Steve Barger with KeyBanc.

我們的下一個問題將來自 KeyBanc 的 Steve Barger。

Jean, you said Trinity is generating good operating leverage. And to that point, incremental margin came in around 20% for 2022. As you think about mix, for '23, do you expect incremental contribution margin to come in above that?

Jean，你說 Trinity 正在產生良好的經營槓桿。到那時，2022 年的增量利潤率約為 20%。當你考慮混合時，對於 23 年，你預計增量貢獻利潤率會高於這個水平嗎？

So Steve, when you look at the earnings guidance that we've given and also some of the color around fewer car sales and some of the color around deliveries that would imply a pretty healthy incremental margin. And so it kind of depends on where in the range you are. But the -- I would expect the incremental margin to be at a very good clip in 2023 as we're sitting here. I don't know if we're going to give them the specifics, but your math is correct. When you look at just the volume that we're talking about and the step-up in earnings of 70%, but you'll -- there's got to be a lot of that from incremental margin.

所以史蒂夫，當你查看我們給出的盈利指引以及一些關於汽車銷量減少的顏色和一些關於交付的顏色時，這意味著相當健康的增量利潤率。因此，這在某種程度上取決於您所在的範圍。但是——我希望增量利潤率在 2023 年達到非常好的水平，因為我們坐在這裡。我不知道我們是否要向他們提供具體細節，但你的計算是正確的。當你只看我們正在談論的數量和 70% 的收益增長時，但你會 - 增量利潤必須有很多。

Right. Well, and it has to come from the rail group, right, because you put up a huge incremental margin on lease in 2022.

正確的。嗯，它必須來自鐵路集團，對吧，因為你在 2022 年提供了巨大的租賃增量利潤。

Yes, correct.

是，對的。

Okay. And you said when you ramp production, on-time delivery went down. Why is that? Could they not get material? Are they having their own labor issues? Or are these diversified suppliers who are prioritizing capacity to other industries? Just what happened with the supply base?

好的。你說當你提高產量時，準時交貨率下降了。這是為什麼？他們拿不到材料嗎？他們有自己的勞工問題嗎？還是這些多元化的供應商正在優先考慮其他行業的產能？供應基地究竟發生了什麼？

So a lot of the supply base had labor issues just like everyone else in North America. We have over 95% of our materials we build our railcars with come out of North America. So it was, one, they got used to the rate -- run rate everyone was going. They figured out how to make that work for them. And then when we try to step it, they fell backwards. So they are working on it. We've seen some improvement, but we still have pockets that pop up every once in a while for different components.

所以很多供應基地都和北美其他人一樣存在勞工問題。我們製造軌道車所用的材料中有超過 95% 來自北美。所以它是，一，他們習慣了這個速度——每個人都在運行的速度。他們想出瞭如何為他們工作。然後當我們試圖踩到它時，它們向後倒了下去。所以他們正在努力。我們已經看到了一些改進，但我們仍然偶爾會彈出不同組件的口袋。

And remember, I think I mentioned a little bit ago earlier that we're trying to give them more visibility to that signal. So typically, you give them 60, 90 days. We're trying to go out further, especially with the backlog we have.

請記住，我想我之前提到過我們正在努力讓他們更多地了解該信號。所以通常情況下，你給他們 60、90 天。我們正試圖走得更遠，尤其是在我們積壓的情況下。

Got it. And I've been jumping around on the call, so sorry if I missed this. But Eric, I think you said you're prioritizing more dividend versus buyback in '23. First of all, did I hear that right? And well, I guess, we'll just start there.

知道了。我一直在打電話，很抱歉，如果我錯過了這個。但是埃里克，我想你說過你在 23 年優先考慮更多的股息而不是回購。首先，我沒聽錯吧？好吧，我想，我們將從那裡開始。

Yes. Steve, you did hear that right. We looked -- the question earlier was how much share buybacks are baked into the guidance. And my answer was modest and that more of the capital allocation is shifting to the dividend.

是的。史蒂夫，你沒聽錯。我們看了——之前的問題是指導中包含了多少股票回購。我的回答很溫和，更多的資本配置正在轉向股息。

Is that going to be sustainable? Is it -- you've obviously taken out 45% of the shares in the last 6 years or so. Is this a shift that we should be thinking about on a go-forward basis that more cash will be allocated to dividend?

這將是可持續的嗎？是嗎——你顯然在過去 6 年左右的時間裡拿走了 45% 的股份。這是我們應該在前進的基礎上考慮的一種轉變，即更多現金將分配給股息嗎？

I think it's more of a phenomenon for this year. We had our 3-year plan, and in our 3-year plan we talked about significant share repurchases and dividend growth, I think by all accounts, we've accomplished that. And as we think forward to the next 3 years over the next planning period, we will provide more information on that, but we're not doing at this time.

我認為這更像是今年的一種現象。我們制定了 3 年計劃，在我們的 3 年計劃中，我們談到了重要的股票回購和股息增長，我認為從各方面來看，我們已經實現了這一目標。在我們考慮下一個規劃期的未來 3 年時，我們將提供更多相關信息，但我們目前沒有這樣做。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Jean Savage for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回 Jean Savage 的閉幕詞。

Well, thank you, and thank you again, everyone, for joining us this morning. We believe we are well positioned for a strong year in 2023. Our guidance reflects higher lease rates, higher deliveries and efficiency improvement driving higher margins and generating cash flow. I want to thank our team for their hard work this year and their ability to execute in a challenging environment. Thank you again for your continued support.

好吧，謝謝大家，再次感謝大家今天早上加入我們。我們相信我們已準備好迎接 2023 年的強勁表現。我們的指引反映了更高的租賃率、更高的交付量和效率的提高，從而推動了更高的利潤率並產生了現金流。我要感謝我們的團隊今年的辛勤工作以及他們在充滿挑戰的環境中執行任務的能力。再次感謝您一直以來的支持。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。