Targa Resources Corp (TRGP) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Targa Resources Corp., first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

    您好,感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Targa Resources Corp. 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)請注意,今天的會議正在錄音。

  • I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Tristan Richardson, Vice President, Investor Relations and Fundamentals. Please go ahead.

    現在,我想將會議交給今天的發言人、投資者關係和基本面副總裁特里斯坦·理查森 (Tristan Richardson)。請繼續。

  • Tristan Richardson - Vice President, Investor Relations and Fundamentals

    Tristan Richardson - Vice President, Investor Relations and Fundamentals

  • Thanks, Michelle. Good morning, and welcome to the first-quarter 2025 earnings call for Targa Resources Corp. The first-quarter earnings release, along with the first-quarter supplement presentation that accompany our call, are available on our website at targaresources.com in the Investors section. In addition, an updated investor presentation has also been posted to our website.

    謝謝,米歇爾。早安,歡迎參加 Targa Resources Corp. 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。第一季財報以及隨電話會議發布的第一季補充報告可在我們網站 targaresources.com 的「投資者」部分找到。此外,更新後的投資者介紹也已發佈到我們的網站上。

  • Statements made during this call that might include Targa's expectations or predictions should be considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Actual results could differ materially from those projected in forward-looking statements. For a discussion of factors that could cause actual results to differ, please refer to our latest SEC filings.

    本次電話會議中所作的可能包括 Targa 的期望或預測的陳述應被視為《1934 年證券交易法》第 21E 條所定義的前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中的預測有重大差異。有關可能導致實際結果不同的因素的討論,請參閱我們最新的 SEC 文件。

  • Our speakers for the call today will be Matt Meloy, Chief Executive Officer; Jen Kneale, President; and Will Byers, Chief Financial Officer. Additionally, members of Targa's senior management will be available for Q&A including Pat McDonie, President, Gathering and Processing; Scott Pryor, President, Logistics and Transportation; and Bobby Muraro, Chief Commercial Officer.

    今天電話會議的發言人是執行長 Matt Meloy; Jen Kneale,總裁;以及財務長 Will Byers。此外,Targa 高階管理層成員也將參加問答環節,其中包括收集和處理部門總裁 Pat McDonie; Scott Pryor,物流與運輸總裁;以及首席商務長 Bobby Muraro。

  • I'll now turn the call over to Matt.

    我現在將電話轉給馬特。

  • Matthew Meloy - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Matthew Meloy - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Tristan, and good morning, everyone. We have spent the last many years positioning Targa to be successful across changing environments and to be a beneficiary of market volatility and are proud of our execution across the first four months of the year. We reported record quarterly adjusted EBITDA despite our volumes being impacted by several winter weather events, and as we look across the balance of 2025, we feel very good about our outlook.

    謝謝,特里斯坦,大家早安。多年來,我們一直致力於讓 Targa 在不斷變化的環境中取得成功,並成為市場波動的受益者,我們對今年前四個月的業績感到自豪。儘管我們的銷售量受到幾次冬季天氣事件的影響,但我們報告的季度調整後 EBITDA 創下了紀錄,展望 2025 年的平衡,我們對前景感到非常樂觀。

  • We stepped into global market volatility to opportunistically repurchase nearly $215 million worth of common shares so far this year. We have and will continue to manage the evolving global tariff impacts and have done an excellent job of purchasing steel in advance to limit our potential exposure on capital projects underway. Just as Targa spent the last many years strengthening our positioning, the rest of the energy value chain has done the same, meaning the industry, we believe, is largely well positioned to manage through any environment with much stronger balance sheets and financial flexibility.

    今年迄今為止,我們抓住全球市場波動的機會回購了價值近 2.15 億美元的普通股。我們已經並將繼續管理不斷變化的全球關稅影響,並在提前採購鋼材方面做得非常出色,以限制我們在進行中的資本項目中的潛在風險。正如 Targa 多年來一直致力於加強我們的定位一樣,能源價值鏈的其他部分也做了同樣的事情,這意味著我們相信,該行業在很大程度上已經做好了充分的準備,能夠憑藉更強大的資產負債表和財務靈活性應對任何環境。

  • We have seen the forward crude price curve shift lower, and our customers are not indicating material changes to their drilling programs for 2025 and 2026, which means we continue to expect meaningful volume growth going forward.

    我們已經看到遠期原油價格曲線走低,我們的客戶並未表示 2025 年和 2026 年的鑽井計畫會做出重大改變,這意味著我們預計未來產量仍將大幅成長。

  • In lower commodity price environments, producers typically focus on drilling their highest returning wells, which, if you take 2020 as an example, meant rigs left the Permian Basin last and ultimately helped drive record volumes for Targa as we grew volumes in the Permian despite significant impacts from COVID. Since 2020, we have built an excellent footprint across the Delaware Basin to complement our Midland Basin footprint and believe that our best-in-class producer customers have the most resilient underlying drilling inventory.

    在大宗商品價格較低的環境下,生產商通常專注於鑽探回報最高的油井,以 2020 年為例,這意味著鑽井平台最後離開二疊紀盆地,並最終幫助 Targa 創下創紀錄的產量,儘管受到 COVID 的重大影響,但我們在二疊紀的產量仍然增加了。自 2020 年以來,我們在特拉華盆地建立了卓越的業務足跡,以補充我們在米德蘭盆地的業務足跡,並相信我們一流的生產商客戶擁有最具彈性的底層鑽井庫存。

  • Our core value proposition of increasing adjusted EBITDA and increasing common dividend per share and declining share count is unchanged. We believe that our integrated asset footprint, largest position in the Permian, and strong financial position, more than 90% fee-based, investment-grade rating and leverage ratio at the midpoint of our long-term target range, will allow us to continue to generate attractive returns and return an increasing amount of capital to our shareholders.

    我們的核心價值主張是增加調整後的 EBITDA、增加每股普通股股息並減少股票數量,這一主張保持不變。我們相信,我們綜合的資產佈局、在二疊紀盆地的最大地位、以及強大的財務狀況、超過 90% 的收費、投資級評級和處於長期目標範圍中點的槓桿率,將使我們能夠繼續產生有吸引力的回報,並為股東帶來越來越多的資本回報。

  • Before I turn the call over to Jen to discuss operations in more detail, I would like to thank the Targa team for their continued focus on safety and execution, even while navigating some difficult winter weather in the first quarter, while continuing to provide best-in-class service and reliability to our customers.

    在我將電話轉給 Jen 更詳細地討論營運之前,我想感謝 Targa 團隊持續專注於安全和執行,即使在第一季度經歷了一些艱難的冬季天氣,他們仍然繼續為我們的客戶提供一流的服務和可靠性。

  • Jennifer Kneale - President, General Partner

    Jennifer Kneale - President, General Partner

  • Thanks, Matt. Good morning, everyone. Let's talk about our operational results in more detail. Starting in the Permian, our natural gas inlet volumes averaged over 6 billion cubic feet per day during the first quarter, an 11% increase from a year ago. Our Permian volumes were down about 1% from last quarter as we were impacted by several winter weather events. As expected, Permian volumes have rebounded meaningfully and are trending approximately 200 million cubic feet per day higher than the first quarter. We're also forecasting a lot of well completions for the balance of this quarter and beyond, which supports our expectation of significantly higher back half volumes.

    謝謝,馬特。大家早安。我們來更詳細地談談我們的營運成果。從二疊紀開始,我們第一季的天然氣入口量平均每天超過 60 億立方英尺,比去年同期增加了 11%。由於受到幾次冬季天氣事件的影響,我們的二疊紀產量較上一季下降了約 1%。正如預期的那樣,二疊紀盆地的產量大幅反彈,日產量比第一季高出約 2 億立方英尺。我們也預測本季及以後將會有大量油井完井,這支持了我們對後半部產量大幅增加的預期。

  • In Permian Midland, our Pembrook II plant is now expected to come online in the third quarter of 2025. Our East Pembrook and East Driver plants remain on track to begin operations in the second quarter and third quarter of 2026. In Permian Delaware, our Bull Moose II and Falcon II plants remain on track to begin operations in the first quarter and second quarter of 2026, supporting both continued underlying organic growth and the new commercial opportunities that we executed in late 2024.

    在二疊紀米德蘭,我們的 Pembrook II 工廠預計將於 2025 年第三季投入使用。我們的 East Pembrook 和 East Driver 工廠仍有望在 2026 年第二季和第三季開始運作。在特拉華州二疊紀盆地,我們的 Bull Moose II 和 Falcon II 工廠仍有望在 2026 年第一季和第二季開始運營,這將支持持續的潛在有機成長以及我們在 2024 年底實現的新商業機會。

  • We continue to invest in our Permian intra-basin and long-haul residue gas takeaway and FID of the recently announced Traverse pipeline project will continue to provide flow assurance and access to important markets for our customers.

    我們將繼續投資於二疊紀盆地內和長距離殘餘氣體輸送,最近宣布的 Traverse 管道項目的 FID 將繼續為我們的客戶提供流量保證和進入重要市場的機會。

  • Shifting to our Logistics and Transportation segment, Targa's NGL pipeline transportation volumes averaged 844,000 barrels per day and fractionation volumes averaged 980,000 barrels per day during the first quarter, impacted by winter weather events that reduced volumes from our G&P assets. We also had a planned turnaround at Trains I through III at our CBF fractionation complex in Mont Belvieu across much of the first quarter and into April. Similar to what we are seeing in G&P, NGL volumes across both transportation and fractionation have rebounded.

    轉向我們的物流和運輸部門,第一季度,Targa 的 NGL 管道運輸量平均為每天 844,000 桶,分餾量平均為每天 980,000 桶,受冬季天氣事件的影響,我們的 G&P 資產的運輸量減少。我們還計劃在第一季的大部分時間和四月對位於 Mont Belvieu 的 CBF 分餾綜合設施中的 I 至 III 號列車進行檢修。與我們在 G&P 中看到的情況類似,運輸和分餾過程中的 NGL 產量均已反彈。

  • Given the anticipated growth in our Permian G&P business and corresponding announced plan additions, our outlook for NGL supply growth remains strong. Our Delaware Express NGL transportation pipeline remains on track for completion in the third quarter of 2026. Our GCF fractionator was reactivated in the first quarter, and our next fractionators in Mont Belvieu, Trains 11 and 12, remain on track for the third quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027.

    鑑於我們二疊紀 G&P 業務的預期成長以及相應宣布的計劃增加,我們對 NGL 供應成長的前景依然強勁。我們的特拉華快線 NGL 運輸管道預計將於 2026 年第三季完工。我們的 GCF 分餾塔已於第一季重新啟動,位於 Mont Belvieu 的下一批分餾塔(11 號和 12 號生產線)仍將於 2026 年第三季和 2027 年第一季按計畫投入使用。

  • Turning to our LPG export business at Galena Park, our loadings averaged 13.4 million barrels per month during the first quarter. While we had a few days of fog in the first quarter, our docks were effectively full, and we are seeing continued strength in cargo loading. The demand for LPGs globally remains strong, and we are well positioned with long-term contracts in place. American supply is cost advantaged, and we believe that growth in US supply will continue to be important to serve global demand.

    談到我們在加利納公園的液化石油氣出口業務,第一季我們的裝載量平均每月為 1,340 萬桶。雖然第一季有幾天有霧,但我們的碼頭實際上已經滿員,而且我們看到貨物裝載量持續強勁。全球對液化石油氣的需求依然強勁,我們已簽訂長期合同,處於有利地位。美國供應具有成本優勢,我們相信美國供應的成長將繼續對滿足全球需求發揮重要作用。

  • Our LPG export debottleneck expansion is expected to be in service in the fourth quarter, and we remain on track with our larger LPG export expansion which will increase our loading capacity to 19 million barrels per month to be online in the third quarter of 2027.

    我們的液化石油氣出口瓶頸擴張專案預計將於第四季度投入使用,我們將繼續按計劃擴大液化石油氣出口規模,這將使我們的裝載能力提高到每月 1,900 萬桶,並於 2027 年第三季投入使用。

  • To build on Matt's earlier comments on our navigation of an evolving market of global tariffs, we see a low single-digit percentage potential impact to budgeted project costs across our announced projects underway, which would fit well within our contingency for our projects. We are also doing a great job of managing our operating costs and procurement of materials that support our day-to-day operations. We are well positioned operationally and believe that our wellhead-to-water strategy, driven by activity in the Permian Basin, will continue to put us in excellent position to execute for our shareholders.

    基於馬特先前對我們應對不斷變化的全球關稅市場所做的評論,我們發現,對於我們已宣布的正在進行的項目,預算項目成本可能受到個位數百分比的低影響,這很符合我們項目的應急計劃。我們在管理營運成本和支援日常營運的材料採購方面也做得很好。我們的營運狀況良好,並相信由二疊紀盆地活動推動的井口到水策略將繼續使我們處於有利地位,為股東服務。

  • I will now turn the call over to Will to discuss our first-quarter results, outlook, and capital allocation. Will?

    現在我將把電話轉給威爾,討論我們的第一季業績、展望和資本配置。將要?

  • William Byers - Chief Financial Officer

    William Byers - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Jen. Targa's reported adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter was $1.179 billion, a 22% increase from a year ago. The increase was attributable primarily to higher Permian volumes, which drove higher volumes and margin across our integrated NGL system and to 100% ownership of our Badlands assets. Our adjusted EBITDA increased 5% sequentially and was driven by the Badlands transaction and higher marketing margin. As Matt mentioned, we continue to estimate full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA to be in a range of $4.65 billion to $4.85 billion.

    謝謝,Jen。Targa 報告的第一季調整後 EBITDA 為 11.79 億美元,比去年同期成長 22%。成長主要歸因於二疊紀產量增加,這推動了我們綜合 NGL 系統的產量和利潤率增加,以及我們對 Badlands 資產的 100% 所有權。我們的調整後 EBITDA 環比成長 5%,這得益於 Badlands 交易和更高的行銷利潤率。正如馬特所提到的,我們繼續估計 2025 年全年調整後的 EBITDA 將在 46.5 億美元至 48.5 億美元之間。

  • In February, we successfully completed a $2 billion offering comprised of 5.55% notes due 2035 and 6.125% notes due 2055. We used the net proceeds from the debt issuance to fund the repurchase of all of the outstanding preferred equity in Targa Badlands LLC and for general corporate purposes, including to repay borrowings under our commercial paper program.

    2 月份,我們成功完成了 20 億美元的債券發行,包括 2035 年到期的 5.55% 債券和 2055 年到期的 6.125% 債券。我們利用發行債券的淨收益來資助回購 Targa Badlands LLC 的所有未償還優先股以及用於一般公司用途,包括償還我們商業票據計劃下的借款。

  • At the end of the first quarter, we had $2.7 billion of available liquidity, and our pro forma consolidated leverage ratio was approximately 3.6 times, well within our long-term leverage ratio target range of 3 to 4 times. We continue to expect net growth capital spending for 2025 in a range of $2.6 billion to $2.8 billion and continue to estimate 2025 net maintenance capital spending of $250 million.

    截至第一季末,我們擁有 27 億美元的可用流動資金,我們的預測合併槓桿率約為 3.6 倍,遠低於我們 3 至 4 倍的長期槓桿率目標範圍。我們繼續預期 2025 年淨成長資本支出將在 26 億美元至 28 億美元之間,並繼續估計 2025 年淨維護資本支出為 2.5 億美元。

  • Shifting to capital allocation, our focus is more of the same from Targa: maintain our strong investment-grade balance sheet, continue to invest in high-returning integrated projects, and return an increasing amount of capital to our shareholders. We continue to deliver on our share repurchase program. We opportunistically repurchased $125 million in common shares at an average price of $191.86 per share during the first quarter. And subsequently to quarter end, we repurchased an incremental 89 million at an average price of $167.28 per share. We also declared a 33% increase to our common dividend for the first quarter of 2025 relative to 2024.

    轉向資本配置,我們的重點與 Targa 大致相同:保持強勁的投資等級資產負債表,繼續投資高回報的綜合項目,並向股東返還越來越多的資本。我們將繼續履行股票回購計畫。我們在第一季抓住機會,以平均每股 191.86 美元的價格回購了價值 1.25 億美元的普通股。到本季末,我們以平均每股 167.28 美元的價格回購了 8,900 萬美元。我們也宣布,2025 年第一季的普通股股利將較 2024 年增加 33%。

  • We are in excellent financial position with a strong and flexible balance sheet, and we'll continue to try to identify the different levers that we can use to best position Targa to create value for our shareholders.

    我們的財務狀況良好,資產負債表強勁且靈活,我們將繼續嘗試尋找可以利用的不同槓桿,使 Targa 處於最佳位置,為股東創造價值。

  • And with that, I will turn the call back over to Tristan.

    說完這些,我將把電話轉回給特里斯坦。

  • Tristan Richardson - Vice President, Investor Relations and Fundamentals

    Tristan Richardson - Vice President, Investor Relations and Fundamentals

  • Thanks, Will. For the Q&A session, we ask that you limit to one question and one follow-up and reenter the queue if you have additional questions. Michelle?

    謝謝,威爾。對於問答環節,我們要求您限制一個問題和一個後續問題,如果您有其他問題,請重新進入佇列。米歇爾?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Jeremy Tonet, JPMorgan.

    (操作員指示)摩根大通的 Jeremy Tonet。

  • Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

    Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

  • With oil price volatility, there's a lot of concern in the market with regards to producer activity. And you touched on this during your call comments, but I was wondering if you could expand a bit more just with regards to how Targa differs from others as far as your customers who you're levered to versus maybe others, your position in the Permian relative to others? Maybe just if you could dive in a little bit more on how you see that could differentiate Targa in the current environment?

    隨著油價波動,市場對生產商的活動非常擔憂。您在電話評論中提到了這一點,但我想知道您是否可以更詳細地說明 Targa 與其他公司有何不同,就您的客戶與其他公司相比有何不同,以及您在 Permian 相對於其他公司的地位而言有何不同?也許您可以更深入地談談您認為在當前環境下 Targa 有何不同?

  • Jennifer Kneale - President, General Partner

    Jennifer Kneale - President, General Partner

  • Sure, Jeremy. This is Jen. I think when we think about 2025, we feel really good about where we are at this point in the year with one quarter under our belt, where volumes are trending right now in April. The expected activity going forward with additional well completions expected and really where we expect to then exit 2025. We're, of course, in the midst of a lot of conversations with our producers as we consistently are and what we're hearing so far is really that we've got producers with multi-year drilling programs in place, and we expect there to be significant resiliency.

    當然,傑里米。這是 Jen。我認為,當我們考慮 2025 年時,我們對今年目前所處的位置感到非常滿意,我們已經取得了一個季度的成果,四月份的交易量呈現趨勢。預計未來活動將持續進行,預計將有更多油井完井,預計到 2025 年完成。當然,我們正在與生產商進行大量對話,就像我們一直以來所做的那樣,到目前為止,我們聽到的實際上是,我們已經與生產商制定了多年的鑽探計劃,我們預計會有顯著的彈性。

  • I think that our differentiating factors are several. We've got the best G&P footprint across the Midland Basin and the Delaware Basin. And that's supported by what we believe to be the best rock across both of those areas, the best producers that are very well capitalized, very strong, excellent balance sheet, and really a view that they are going to drill through cycles with that multiyear drilling program approach in place.

    我認為我們的區別因素有幾個。我們在米德蘭盆地和特拉華盆地擁有最好的 G&P 足跡。我們認為這兩個地區都有最好的岩石,最好的生產商,資本充足,實力強大,資產負債表出色,而且我們真的認為他們將採用多年鑽探計劃方法進行週期性鑽探。

  • And so I think we feel really very differentiated, and that's part of what's driven our outperformance. If you go back and you look at 2020, I think that's really where you saw the differentiation of our Midland Basin footprint, where despite the impacts of COVID, we grew volumes.

    因此我認為我們確實感受到了差異化,這也是我們表現優異的部分原因。如果回顧 2020 年,我認為那才是我們米德蘭盆地足跡真正改變的時候,儘管受到 COVID 的影響,我們的產量仍然增長。

  • Since then, we've now acquired what we believe to be the best-in-class Delaware footprint. So we've really got the basin, I think, covered and hopefully, we'll continue to provide excellent customer service to our producers that will put us in really good stead going forward.

    自那時起,我們現在已經獲得了我們認為一流的特拉華州足跡。所以我認為,我們確實已經涵蓋了整個盆地,希望我們將繼續為我們的生產商提供優質的客戶服務,這將使我們在未來處於非常有利的地位。

  • Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

    Jeremy Tonet - Analyst

  • Got it. That's helpful. And then as it relates to CapEx, I was wondering if you might be able to elaborate a bit more on the direction of CapEx '26 relative to '25. I'm just wondering on the potential interplay with buybacks. And just how that all mixes together given the share price volatility?

    知道了。這很有幫助。然後,由於它與資本支出有關,我想知道您是否可以更詳細地闡述 26 年資本支出相對於 25 年的方向。我只是想知道與回購的潛在交互作用。那麼,考慮到股價波動,這一切又是如何結合在一起的呢?

  • Jennifer Kneale - President, General Partner

    Jennifer Kneale - President, General Partner

  • This is Jen, Jeremy. I think that from our perspective, a strong and flexible balance sheet is paramount to everything that we do. It allows us to continue to invest in the business, and then it allows us to pull different levers as opportunities present themselves.

    這是 Jen,Jeremy。我認為從我們的角度來看,強大而靈活的資產負債表對我們所做的一切至關重要。它使我們能夠繼續對業務進行投資,然後使我們能夠在機會出現時採取不同的措施。

  • And you could see from our perspective that first quarter and, in particular, April, presented some of those opportunities, given we were blocked out for half of April, shows that we are pretty active there in the first half of the month. I think as we look forward into 2026, we've got a number of growth capital projects underway that we believe will be much needed.

    從我們的角度來看,第一季度,特別是四月份,提供了一些機會,考慮到我們在四月份的上半月處於停滯狀態,這表明我們在上半月非常活躍。我認為,展望 2026 年,我們已經開展了許多我們認為非常需要的成長資本項目。

  • Part of our 2026 spending on projects, particularly on the G&P side, is for new processing plants that are supporting not only our organic base, but also the contracts that we entered into in the fourth quarter of 2024. And we think that those are going to be well-positioned projects that will be well utilized. Ultimately, what will change the cadence of growth capital spend in '26 and beyond is activity levels. And I think that we've put out a pretty good blueprint both through our track record in 2020 and 2021 when we rationalized spending quite significantly and then also with the more illustrative or hypothetical framework that we published last February.

    我們 2026 年專案支出的一部分,特別是在 G&P 方面,是用於新建加工廠,這些加工廠不僅支持我們的有機基礎,也支持我們在 2024 年第四季簽訂的合約。我們認為這些項目定位良好,能夠充分利用。最終,改變26年及以後成長資本支出節奏的是活動水準。我認為,透過 2020 年和 2021 年的業績記錄,我們已經制定了相當不錯的藍圖,當時我們大幅合理化了支出,然後還有我們去年 2 月發布的更具說明性或假設性的框架。

  • And really, it's that activity levels around the need for gathering and compression that could drive spending or higher, depending where activity levels end up. And then, of course, we'll have to think about the cadence of next project adds. But with the projects that we're adding across Gathering and Processing, Delaware Express on the NGL transportation side, our next two fracs and then our LPG export debottlenecking later this year and the next major expansion, we're going to be sitting in a really good spot from an operating leverage position across the footprint as well.

    實際上,圍繞收集和壓縮需求的活動水平可能會推動支出甚至更高,具體取決於活動水平的最終水平。然後,當然,我們必須考慮下一個項目增加的節奏。但是,隨著我們在收集和處理方面增加的項目、NGL 運輸方面的特拉華快捷、我們的下兩個壓裂項目、今年晚些時候的 LPG 出口瓶頸消除以及下一次重大擴張,我們將在整個足蹟的運營槓桿位置上處於非常有利的位置。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Spiro Dounis, Citi.

    花旗銀行的 Spiro Dounis。

  • Spiro Dounis - Analyst

    Spiro Dounis - Analyst

  • Matt, I wanted to go back to your comments about being able to benefit from volatility clearly sort of proven that in the past. I think last call, you even noted about $100 million of optimization in the year that you didn't really count on. And so I guess you'd have to argue this year potentially even more opportunities for that, just given the volatility. So curious if you start to see that manifest itself anywhere and if that's something that probably could offset some of the commodity impact?

    馬特,我想回到你關於能夠從波動中獲益的評論,這在過去已經得到了明確的證明。我認為上次您甚至提到了當年約 1 億美元的優化,而這其實您並沒有真正考慮到。因此我想,考慮到波動性,今年可能會有更多這樣的機會。所以很好奇,您是否開始在任何地方看到這種情況的出現,以及這是否可能抵消部分商品的影響?

  • Matthew Meloy - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Matthew Meloy - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, sure. No, good question. We are seeing with our growing footprint, really on the gas marketing side and the NGL marketing side. Just as we're moving more and more volumes through our processing plants and into Bellevue into different markets, we're just seeing more opportunities to monetize some of our positions. So last year was a good year for us.

    是的,當然。不,好問題。我們看到,我們的足跡確實在天然氣行銷方面和 NGL 行銷方面不斷擴大。正當我們透過加工廠將越來越多的貨物運往貝爾維尤的不同市場時,我們也看到了將我們的部分部位貨幣化的更多機會。所以去年對我們來說是好的一年。

  • I would say, this first quarter, it was a good quarter for us and we kind of beat our expectations in terms of our marketing. We benefited more on the gas marketing side but also saw a strong NGL marketing as well. But it wasn't to the magnitude, I'd say, we saw last year necessarily. I think if you kind of look quarter to quarter, we were maybe up around $10 million or so, first quarter to what we kind of pointed to last quarter. So it was some of the sequential beat just as we see more opportunities, but there's also just good underlying business fundamentals as well.

    我想說,第一季對我們來說是一個好季度,我們的行銷表現超出了我們的預期。我們在天然氣行銷方面獲益更多,但同時也看到了強勁的 NGL 行銷。但我想說,它不一定達到我們去年看到的程度。我認為,如果你看一下每個季度的情況,我們第一季的銷售額可能比上一季增加了 1000 萬美元左右。因此,正如我們看到的更多機會一樣,這是連續的,但同時也有良好的潛在業務基本面。

  • Spiro Dounis - Analyst

    Spiro Dounis - Analyst

  • Got it. Good to hear. Second question, maybe just going to commodity. Maybe just remind us where you are relative to your fee floors and how you're thinking about the hedging strategy from here?

    知道了。很高興聽到這個消息。第二個問題,也許只是涉及商品。也許只是提醒我們您的費用底線在哪裡,以及您如何考慮從現在開始的對沖策略?

  • Matthew Meloy - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Matthew Meloy - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah. I mean, when we provided our guidance, I'd say where we sit now, Waha has been very volatile and bouncing around 0, it's a little higher than that now. We are below our fee floors across our G&P footprint. So that's really unchanged from where we were at the beginning of the year. And our hedging strategy has really not changed too much.

    是的。我的意思是,當我們提供指導時,我想說我們現在所處的位置,Waha 一直非常不穩定並且在 0 左右波動,現在比那要高一點。我們的 G&P 業務範圍內的費用均低於最低標準。因此,這與年初的情況相比並沒有什麼變化。我們的對沖策略其實並沒有太大的改變。

  • The length, the remaining length that we do have, we've hedged 90% of it through 2026. So we've really taken a lot of the commodity price delta out of our -- kind of out of our operating results, which is why you see, even with Waha at 0 or close to it, we're setting records in terms of EBITDA.

    對於我們現有的剩餘長度,我們已經對其中的 90% 進行了避險,直至 2026 年。因此,我們確實從我們的經營業績中剔除了大量商品價格波動的影響,這就是為什麼你會看到,即使 Waha 的利潤為 0 或接近 0,我們的 EBITDA 也創下了紀錄。

  • You rewind five years ago, that would have had a much more punitive impact on us even with our hedging program. So we've done a good job from changing our contracts but also hedging the unprotected fee floor volumes as well.

    回顧五年前,即使我們有對沖計劃,這也將對我們產生更具懲罰性的影響。因此,我們在改變合約以及對沖未受保護的費用下限方面做得很好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Blum, Wells Fargo.

    麥可布魯姆,富國銀行。

  • Michael Blum - Analyst

    Michael Blum - Analyst

  • So it seems like you're not seeing any change in LPG export activity levels, which is pretty consistent with what your peers are saying. But I'm wondering if you're seeing any change in the destination of where those cargoes are going versus historical patterns? And do you see any scenario where LPG exports kind of don't move off the docks in the US?

    因此,您似乎沒有看到液化石油氣出口活動水平有任何變化,這與您的同行所說的非常一致。但我想知道,與歷史模式相比,您是否看到這些貨物的目的地發生了任何變化?您是否看過液化石油氣出口無法從美國碼頭運走的情況?

  • Douglas Pryor - President - Logistics and Transportation

    Douglas Pryor - President - Logistics and Transportation

  • Hey, Michael. This is Scott. I would say -- fair to say that we have not seen any material change in our activity level at our docks as we've moved through not only through the first quarter, but through the second quarter. As Matt mentioned in our comments, we had a very nice first quarter, only impacted a little bit by some fog delays. So it was not quite as robust as what we saw in the fourth quarter. But again, materially speaking, we are fully contracted, not only through the second quarter but through the balance of this year and beyond.

    嘿,麥可。這是斯科特。我想說的是——公平地說,我們不僅在第一季度,而且在第二季度都沒有看到我們碼頭的活動水平發生任何實質變化。正如馬特在我們的評論中提到的那樣,我們第一季的業績表現非常好,只是受到一些霧延誤的影響。因此,它並不像我們在第四季度看到的那麼強勁。但從實質上來說,我們的合約已經全部簽完了,不僅是第二季度,而且是今年餘下時間及以後的合約。

  • I would say that we are hearing that some of the destinations are changing relative to folks doing cargo switching on the water, if you will, so the international market, the waterborne market is very nimble when it starts looking at vessels that are on the water. Some of those have been moved from China over to Japan or to Korea and then backfilled from Saudi tons or from other areas. So generally speaking, I would say, yes, some of the transits have changed, but the overall demand has not changed into those specific regions predominantly to the Far East.

    我想說的是,我們聽說一些目的地正在發生變化,相對於人們在水上轉換貨物而言,所以當國際市場、水運市場開始關注水上船隻時,它會非常靈活。其中一些已從中國運往日本或韓國,然後用沙烏地阿拉伯或其他地區運回。所以總的來說,我想說,是的,一些中轉已經發生了變化,但總體需求並沒有改變,主要是遠東地區的那些特定地區。

  • We are hopeful, much like what we saw with ethane, that ethane was excluded from the tariffs for imports into China. We know that there are a variety of discussions that are going on that perhaps LPG could be excluded. We don't have that today. But again, it is a very fluid marketplace that is trying to evaluate what it needs to do.

    我們希望,就像我們在乙烷問題上看到的那樣,乙烷不會被納入中國進口關稅範圍。我們知道,目前有各種各樣的討論,或許可以將液化石油氣排除在外。我們今天沒有這個。但同樣,這是一個非常流動的市場,它正在試圖評估自己需要做什麼。

  • The market has the supply in the US. It is growing. Demand is growing worldwide. And I think the market is very capable of figuring out how to get product to where it needs to be from a supply-demand perspective, and price will adjust predominantly on the commodity base side of things and not so much on the terminal fee side.

    美國市場有供應。它正在成長。全球需求正在成長。我認為市場完全有能力從供需角度找到如何將產品送到需要的地方,價格將主要根據商品基礎方面進行調整,而不是根據終端費用方面進行調整。

  • Michael Blum - Analyst

    Michael Blum - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. No, that's very helpful. Then just had maybe a different way to ask a question on buybacks. Just as we go into what seems like a more volatile macro backdrop, just wanted to get your take on how you're thinking about buybacks? Would you be more cautious trying to protect the balance sheet? Or at this point, should we think of buybacks as sort of part of the ratable program of capital return?

    好的。偉大的。不,這非常有幫助。那麼也許可以用不同的方式來詢問有關回購的問題。正當我們進入一個似乎更加動盪的宏觀背景時,只是想聽聽您對回購的看法?您會更謹慎地嘗試保護資產負債表嗎?或者在這一點上,我們是否應該將回購視為按比例計算的資本回報計劃的一部分?

  • Matthew Meloy - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Matthew Meloy - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, yeah. Good question, Michael. I think as we think about buybacks, we've intentionally positioned that as an opportunistic buyback program. As Will pointed out, our balance sheet is 3.6 times debt to EBITDA. We're in really good shape to see good EBITDA growth.

    是啊是啊。問得好,麥可。我認為,當我們考慮回購時,我們有意將其定位為機會主義回購計劃。正如威爾指出的那樣,我們的資產負債表上的債務與 EBITDA 比率是 3.6 倍。我們的狀況非常好,EBITDA 實現了良好的成長。

  • So we're in a good financial position to where we see dislocations or weakness to be able to opportunistically repurchase. And that's what you saw us do in April. We moved in, in early April when there was a dislocation and we purchased more. I don't know what that's going to look like as we go forward, but it's really our same posture.

    因此,我們的財務狀況良好,當我們看到混亂或弱點時,我們可以趁機回購。這就是您在四月看到我們所做的。我們在四月初搬進來,當時發生了混亂,我們買了更多東西。我不知道我們前進的步伐會是什麼樣子,但這確實是我們的姿態。

  • I see us continuing to be active, buying back our shares and just we'll see what happens in the market, see what volatility is there. But we think buying back shares will be a portion of the way we return capital to our shareholders.

    我認為我們會繼續保持活躍,回購我們的股票,看看市場會發生什麼,看看會有什麼波動。但我們認為回購股票將是我們向股東返還資本的方式之一。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Manav Gupta, UBS.

    瑞銀的 Manav Gupta。

  • Manav Gupta - Analyst

    Manav Gupta - Analyst

  • I just wanted to go back to the decision of moving forward with the Traverse pipeline. So help us understand the demand here? And also, how do you see this partnership with MPLX and Enbridge evolving over a period of time?

    我只是想重新考慮推進 Traverse 輸油管建設的決定。那麼請幫助我們了解這裡的需求呢?此外,您認為與 MPLX 和 Enbridge 的合作關係在未來一段時間內會如何發展?

  • Robert Muraro - Chief Commercial Officer

    Robert Muraro - Chief Commercial Officer

  • Ask that second part of that -- this is Bobby. Ask the second part of that question again.

    問第二部分——這是鮑比。再次詢問該問題的第二部分。

  • Manav Gupta - Analyst

    Manav Gupta - Analyst

  • How do you see the partnership with MPLX and Enbridge developing over a period of time?

    您如何看待與 MPLX 和 Enbridge 的合作關係在一段時間內的發展?

  • Robert Muraro - Chief Commercial Officer

    Robert Muraro - Chief Commercial Officer

  • Got it. Well, I'm not going to comment on the partnership coming together and how they're going to work together. But at the end of the day, there's a lot of demand growth, a lot of supply growth going down into South Texas. Same thing into the [gating] market. We were excited to see that pipeline go FID.

    知道了。好吧,我不會評論合作夥伴關係的建立以及他們將如何合作。但最終,南德州的需求成長了很多,供應也成長了很多。同樣的事情也發生在[門控]市場。我們很高興看到該管道獲得最終決定。

  • It was in the plan when Blackcomb was launched, but it was contingent around, obviously, enough demand going into that pipe going south. The commercialization of that pipe has gone really well. We're really excited about it going with Blackcomb landing down in Agua Dulce and the amount of supply going down there is -- the LNG demand is coming online over time.

    這是 Blackcomb 啟動時的計劃,但顯然,這取決於是否有足夠的需求進入南向管道。該管道的商業化進展非常順利。隨著黑梳山天然氣管道抵達阿瓜杜爾塞 (Agua Dulce) 並開始向那裡輸送天然氣,我們對這一舉措感到非常興奮——液化天然氣需求將隨著時間的推移而增加。

  • We are excited to see those two markets, demand centers and supply centers, getting connected with a big inch pipe. I think it will be good for Targa. It will be good for the producers. It will be good for the markets coming down there.

    我們很高興看到這兩個市場,需求中心和供應中心,透過大英寸管道連接起來。我認為這對 Targa 來說會是件好事。這對生產者來說是件好事。這對於市場下跌是好事。

  • Manav Gupta - Analyst

    Manav Gupta - Analyst

  • Perfect. My quick follow-up here is with the macro uncertainty, the valuations have come in. If Targa sees the right opportunity, would you be open to a small-scale bolt-on deals? I mean, you have a very attractive line of organic growth projects, but would you be open to small bolt-on deals if they meet your threshold return criteria?

    完美的。我在這裡快速跟進的是,由於宏觀不確定性,估值已經出現。如果 Targa 看到合適的機會,您是否願意接受小規模的附加交易?我的意思是,您有一系列非常有吸引力的有機成長項目,但如果它們符合您的門檻回報標準,您是否願意接受小型附加交易?

  • Matthew Meloy - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Matthew Meloy - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, sure. Yes, on the M&A question, I think our posture really remains unchanged to what it has been. We have a really good footprint and a lot of really attractive organic growth opportunities, which is going to be our primary focus. If there are opportunities to supplement organic growth with bolt-ons, I think we'll continue to look at that, just as we have over the last several years. I would say the bar remains high.

    是的,當然。是的,關於併購問題,我認為我們的立場確實沒有改變。我們擁有非常好的足跡和許多真正有吸引力的有機成長機會,這將是我們的主要關注點。如果有機會透過附加功能來補充有機成長,我想我們會繼續關注這一點,就像過去幾年一樣。我想說標準仍然很高。

  • We have a lot of good opportunities and growth opportunities in front of us. But yeah, we'll continue to look for bolt-ons if there's something that makes sense, then we'll evaluate those.

    我們面前有很多良好的機會和成長機會。但是的,如果有什麼有意義的東西,我們會繼續尋找附加物,然後我們會對其進行評估。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Keith Stanley, Wolfe Research.

    基斯‧史丹利(Keith Stanley),沃爾夫研究公司。

  • Keith Stanley - Analyst

    Keith Stanley - Analyst

  • So last quarter, you said you thought Permian volume growth on your system would likely be even stronger in 2026 than 2025, and obviously, the macro has changed since then. What I'm curious about is you've pointed to a lot of commercial agreements and new plants starting up with commitments next year. Should we think of that as potentially providing some protection if the macro stays weak and helps to lock in some growth next year if activity slows?

    因此,上個季度,您說您認為您的系統上的二疊紀體積增長在 2026 年可能會比 2025 年更加強勁,顯然,從那時起宏觀情況已經發生了變化。我好奇的是,您指出了許多商業協議和新工廠將於明年投產。如果宏觀經濟保持疲軟,我們是否應該認為這可能會提供一些保護,如果經濟活動放緩,這將有助於鎖定明年的一些成長?

  • Jennifer Kneale - President, General Partner

    Jennifer Kneale - President, General Partner

  • Keith, this is Jen. I think what you're hearing from us is that so far this year is largely shaping up with expectations, and we're excited about the growth that we expect this year. I think when we think about 2026, what we're hearing from our major producer customers so far is the drilling programs are unchanged.

    基思,這是 Jen。我想您從我們這裡聽到的是,今年到目前為止的情況基本上符合預期,我們對今年預期的成長感到興奮。我認為,當我們考慮 2026 年時,到目前為止我們從主要生產商客戶那裡聽到的是鑽井計劃沒有改變。

  • Now clearly, there's going to be a lot of conversations between now and the end of the year and into Q1 of 2026 in producer boardrooms. But I think what we're saying is that we're really well positioned because we're going to have a lot of growth this year, and that's going to result in us exiting 2025 and at hopefully a pretty attractive cadence of growth that will help support into 2026.

    顯然,從現在到今年年底以及 2026 年第一季度,製片人董事會將進行大量對話。但我認為,我們要說的是,我們確實處於非常有利的位置,因為今年我們將實現大幅增長,這將使我們在 2025 年結束時,有望實現相當有吸引力的增長節奏,並有助於支持到 2026 年。

  • And then when we're talking about those commercial agreements that we signed in the fourth quarter of 2024, the point we're really trying to make is that those are really additive to the base growth that we were otherwise expecting for 2026 and part of 2025. And so I think, yes, those help further support growth that we otherwise wouldn't have had if we hadn't entered into those agreements.

    然後,當我們談論我們在 2024 年第四季度簽署的那些商業協議時,我們真正想要表達的觀點是,這些協議確實對我們預期的 2026 年和 2025 年部分時間的基礎增長起到了補充作用。所以我認為,是的,這些有助於進一步支持成長,如果我們沒有達成這些協議,我們就不會實現這種成長。

  • Keith Stanley - Analyst

    Keith Stanley - Analyst

  • Great. And second one, just the Q1 results were -- they're pretty solid given the volumes were down and down meaningfully in the case of frac. So it implies a pretty good pickup in unit margins across the board. Any color you can give on that and if you're expecting continued stronger margins throughout the year?

    偉大的。第二,就第一季的業績而言——考慮到壓裂產量大幅下降,這些業績還是相當穩健的。因此,這意味著整體單位利潤率將大幅提升。您能對此做出何種解釋?您是否預計全年利潤率將持續維持在高水準?

  • William Byers - Chief Financial Officer

    William Byers - Chief Financial Officer

  • Hey, Keith. This is Will. There were several factors that drove the stronger results. But if you're looking on the G&P side, it was a little bit of contract mix and customer activity. Different people were off for different periods of time, and we had some higher margin contracts that delivered better margin as primary contributors.

    嘿,基斯。這是威爾。有幾個因素推動了更強勁的業績。但如果你從 G&P 方面來看,它涉及一些合約組合和客戶活動。不同的人休假的時間不同,我們簽訂了一些利潤率更高的合同,作為主要貢獻者,這些合同帶來了更好的利潤。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Theresa Chen, Barclays.

    巴克萊銀行的 Theresa Chen。

  • Theresa Chen - Analyst

    Theresa Chen - Analyst

  • There seems to be a bifurcation in the commentary from producers in terms of certain ones being more willing to be responsive to the uncertainty in the macro. I totally hear you, Jen, on no material changes thus far. Just curious on your asset -- sorry, customer composition at this point. What percent is public versus private, majors or large independents versus smaller players? Any color around there, please.

    生產商的評論似乎存在分歧,有些生產商更願意對宏觀的不確定性做出反應。Jen,我完全理解你的意思,到目前為止還沒有實質的變化。只是對您的資產感到好奇——抱歉,目前是客戶組成。公共部門與私部門、大型獨立機構與小型企業的比例分別是多少?請問周圍有什麼顏色嗎?

  • Jennifer Kneale - President, General Partner

    Jennifer Kneale - President, General Partner

  • I don't think we're going to get into the sort of nitty-gritty specifics of how we want to break down our producer customers. But I will say that certainly from our perspective, we're working with the biggest, the best, the most highly capitalized or most well-capitalized producers across the Permian, and that's part of what gives us a lot of confidence as we look forward as they continue to execute on their sort of multiyear drilling programs.

    我認為我們不會深入討論如何細分我們的生產商客戶的具體細節。但我肯定會說,從我們的角度來看,我們正在與二疊紀盆地最大、最好、資本最雄厚或資本最充足的生產商合作,這也是讓我們充滿信心的部分原因,我們期待他們繼續執行他們的多年鑽探計劃。

  • I think that is something that, as a result of consolidation across the Permian over the last many years, we've really seen the majors become more meaningful players across the basin, and that's where we've got a lot of exposure along with the large independents. And so that's part of what's giving us, I think, at least a lot of comfort right now that when we think about the next several years, we're sitting in a really good spot.

    我認為,這是由於過去許多年來二疊紀盆地的整合,我們確實看到大型公司成為整個盆地中更有意義的參與者,而我們與大型獨立公司一起在這裡獲得了大量的曝光。所以我認為,這至少是現在給我們帶來很大安慰的部分原因,當我們考慮未來幾年時,我們處於一個非常好的位置。

  • But it really starts with the rock that our producers are sitting on and the inventory that our producers have. And ultimately, that's what we think is going to put all of us in a good position going forward. But certainly, for us, we believe that we are working with high-class producers, really strong positions that they are sitting on across the basin, both Midland side and Delaware side. And I think that's part of what differentiates Targa relative to some others.

    但它實際上始於我們的生產商所坐落的岩石和我們的生產商所擁有的庫存。最終,我們認為這將使我們所有人在未來處於有利地位。但毫無疑問,對我們來說,我們相信我們正在與高級生產商合作,他們在盆地的米德蘭和特拉華兩邊都佔有非常強大的地位。我認為這就是 Targa 與其他車型的不同之處。

  • Theresa Chen - Analyst

    Theresa Chen - Analyst

  • Fair enough. And on the LPG export side of things, if there's not a carve-out for LPG amid the ongoing trade war, can you talk about how this impacts the competitive landscape as some of your competitors have been very open about their brownfield and semi greenfield economics, and especially in light of new entrants into this part of the value chain towards the end of the decade?

    很公平。就液化石油氣出口而言,如果在持續的貿易戰中液化石油氣沒有豁免,您能否談談這將如何影響競爭格局,因為您的一些競爭對手對其棕地和半綠地經濟非常開放,特別是考慮到在本世紀末進入這一價值鏈部分的新進入者?

  • Douglas Pryor - President - Logistics and Transportation

    Douglas Pryor - President - Logistics and Transportation

  • Theresa, this is Scott. Yes, as we talked about on our last earnings call, we talked about our brownfield project and how it will be very competitive in terms of the additions that it provides to our overall export capabilities as that comes online in the third quarter of 2027. When we look at the competitive landscape out there, really for us, it starts back to the wellhead.

    特蕾莎,這是史考特。是的,正如我們在上次收益電話會議上所討論的那樣,我們談到了我們的棕地項目,以及它在 2027 年第三季度上線後將如何在為我們的整體出口能力帶來增強方面具有很強的競爭力。當我們觀察外面的競爭格局時,對我們來說,一切實際上都回到了井源頭。

  • The wellhead obviously provides us a lot of opportunity for us to add gas processing plants, which as we walk through the lineup that we've got relative to the timing of plants that are coming online, the addition of our frac Train 11 and 12 in 2026 and 2027 respectively, all of that provides additional volume for us.

    井口顯然為我們提供了許多增加天然氣處理廠的機會,當我們回顧與即將上線的工廠時間相關的陣容時,我們分別在 2026 年和 2027 年增加了壓裂列車 11 和 12,所有這些都為我們提供了額外的產量。

  • So for us, it's really homegrown NGLs that are coming from the Permian Basin predominantly that are feeding into our pipelines, that are feeding into our fractionation facility and then ultimately down to our docks at the facility. So yes, there's more expansions that are coming online. But again, we view it from the perspective of this is volumes that are coming off of our platform, and we want to keep them on the platform to feed across our export docks.

    因此,對我們來說,真正來自二疊紀盆地的本土天然氣液體主要被輸送到我們的管道,然後進入我們的分餾設施,最後到達我們設施的碼頭。是的,將會有更多的擴展上線。但是,我們再次從這個角度來看待這個問題,因為這些貨物是從我們的平台上運出來的,我們希望將它們留在平台上,以便透過我們的出口碼頭進行運輸。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Mackay, Goldman Sachs.

    高盛的約翰·麥凱。

  • John Mackay - Analyst

    John Mackay - Analyst

  • I wanted to go back on a couple of things. Just first, appreciate the comments on kind of outer year CapEx flexibility. But if we go back to the numbers you framed up a year and a bit ago about being able to go down to $300 million of CapEx in a kind of flatter Permian environment. I guess given the bigger downstream projects you're working on right now, like effectively, when would you be able to get to kind of down to $300 million, let's say, if the macro does start to soften? Is that on the table for '26? Is that '28? Just frame up that kind of downside projection for us, please?

    我想回顧幾件事。首先,感謝您對外部年度資本支出彈性的評論。但是,如果我們回顧一下您一年前提出的數字,即在較平坦的二疊紀環境中,資本支出能夠降至 3 億美元。我想,考慮到您目前正在進行的更大的下游項目,實際上,如果宏觀經濟開始走弱,您什麼時候能夠將資金降至 3 億美元?這是 26 年的事嗎?那是 '28 嗎?請為我們簡單描述一下這種下行預測,好嗎?

  • Matthew Meloy - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Matthew Meloy - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yes, sure. No, that's -- as you think about our CapEx, it's really finishing up those larger downstream projects, which we see completing. And so it's fractionation trains 11 and 12 and our export. And so those will be largely complete into '26 in the early part of '27. So if we are in an environment where, again, that if natural gas volumes are flat, it means crude oil is declining.

    是的,當然。不,那是——當你想到我們的資本支出時,它實際上正在完成那些我們看到正在完成的較大的下游項目。因此它是分餾列車 11 和 12,也是我們的出口。因此,這些工作將在 26 年到 27 年初基本完成。因此,如果我們處於這樣的環境中,如果天然氣產量持平,則表示原油產量正在下降。

  • And it was in that kind of environment, we said we think to stayed flat. It would be roughly about $300 million or so of capital that keeps flat. So it's really after our downstream projects, our major projects are online that we would then, if we're in that environment, step down to that level.

    正是在那樣的環境下,我們說我們認為會保持平穩。大約有 3 億美元左右的資本將保持不變。因此,實際上,在我們的下游項目、我們的主要項目上線之後,如果我們處於那種環境中,我們就會降到那個級別。

  • John Mackay - Analyst

    John Mackay - Analyst

  • All right. Got it. And then maybe just circling back, I think it was a question Keith was asking, I'll just ask in a different way. For the next set of plants coming online, you've seen them come online pretty full in the past. I guess, is there anything you can frame up for us on how to think about these ramping as they come online?

    好的。知道了。然後也許只是回過頭來,我認為這是基斯問的一個問題,我只是換個方式問。對於下一批上線的工廠,您過去已經看到它們上線得相當順利。我想,您能否為我們闡述如何看待這些產品上線時的成長?

  • And then particularly, again, if we're in a softer macro environment, slower production growth environment, what that ramp could look like? Do you get some help from, I don't know, volumes currently being offloaded to a third party? Anything like that you can frame up.

    然後,特別是,如果我們處於更疲軟的宏觀環境、更緩慢的生產成長環境中,這種成長會是什麼樣子?我不知道,您是否從目前正在卸載給第三方的磁碟區中獲得了幫助?任何類似的東西你都可以設計出來。

  • Matthew Meloy - Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Matthew Meloy - Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Sure. I'll start, and I've got Pat and Jen can jump in here. But what we've seen -- I'll talk about Midland and the Delaware. On the Midland side, whenever we brought on plants, they've been pretty full pretty quickly. That system really communicates well and we're able to depressure the system, bring on -- when we bring on additional capacity and it fills up relatively quickly. And I think that will be our expectation for our next plants across the Midland.

    當然。我先開始,然後 Pat 和 Jen 也可以加入。但就我們所見——我將談論米德蘭和特拉華州。在米德蘭一側,每當我們引進植物時,它們很快就會長滿。這個系統確實溝通得很好,我們能夠減輕系統壓力,當我們增加額外容量時,它會相對較快地填滿。我認為這將是我們對米德蘭地區下一座工廠的期望。

  • Delaware, we're working on enhancing the communication between all of our different facilities. We're laying additional lines, and we're improving that. That one is probably a little bit more discrete, and it will depend a bit more just on the overall production growth we have between now and kind of through '26 when those plants come on. So we still see those as highly utilized, much needed, but perhaps a little bit more, we call kind of white space on the Delaware side of things compared to the Midland. And it, of course, will depend on what our producers say they want to do into '26 drilling plans and into '27.

    特拉華州,我們正在努力加強所有不同設施之間的溝通。我們正在鋪設更多線路,並對其進行改進。這一點可能更加獨立,而且更取決於從現在到26年這些工廠投產期間我們的整體產量成長。因此,我們仍然認為這些地區的利用率很高,非常需要,但與米德蘭地區相比,德拉瓦州這邊可能還存在一些空白。當然,這將取決於我們的生產商表示他們希望在 2026 年和 2027 年的鑽探計劃中做些什麼。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • AJ O'Donnell, TPH.

    AJ O'Donnell,TPH。

  • AJ O'Donnell - Analyst

    AJ O'Donnell - Analyst

  • Just wondering if I could start with the Pembrook II getting pulled forward. Just wondering if that is at all like kind of somewhat changed your outlook on volume expectations for the year? And if it has, was that pull-forward more customer-driven? Or would you say it was more on your end with construction just finishing ahead of schedule?

    我只是想知道我是否可以從 Pembrook II 向前拉開始。只是想知道這是否在某種程度上改變了您對今年銷售預期的看法?如果是的話,這種提前行動是否更多是為了客戶?還是您認為這更多的是你們的責任,施工只是提前完成了?

  • Jennifer Kneale - President, General Partner

    Jennifer Kneale - President, General Partner

  • AJ, this is Jen. I'd say it's more of the latter. I'd say that our engineers do a really good job of forecasting when they expect projects to be online. But we also have a pretty good track record of being able to move projects forward a month or even a quarter as we get closer to nearing that date when they're expected online. And so this was just, frankly, we've been able to get it done a little bit more quickly than we previously forecasted.

    AJ,這是 Jen。我認為後者比較合適。我想說,我們的工程師在預測專案上線時間方面做得非常好。但是,隨著專案預計上線日期的臨近,我們也有將專案提前一個月甚至一個季度的良好記錄。坦白說,我們能夠比之前預測的更快地完成它。

  • AJ O'Donnell - Analyst

    AJ O'Donnell - Analyst

  • Okay. And then maybe just one more question on the macro. I'm trying to figure out how you guys would anticipate the Permian production trending, say, fundamentals deteriorate a little bit more, and we have 50 to 55 WTI for a sustained period of time. Or maybe asked differently, in a flat oil environment, what do you think Permian gas production would do on an annual basis?

    好的。然後也許還有一個關於宏觀的問題。我想弄清楚你們如何預測二疊紀的生產趨勢,例如,基本面進一步惡化,並且我們將在一段持續時間內擁有 50 到 55 個 WTI。或者換個角度問,在石油供應平穩的環境下,您認為二疊紀天然氣的年產量會是多少?

  • Patrick Mcdonie - President - Gathering and Processing

    Patrick Mcdonie - President - Gathering and Processing

  • Yes. This is Pat. With increasing GORs, I've seen different numbers, and our peers have stated different numbers. But I think there's 2% to 3% growth in gas over a flat crude oil environment, probably pretty good baseline. And certainly, I've heard higher numbers.

    是的。這是帕特。隨著 GOR 的增加,我看到了不同的數字,我們的同行也給出了不同的數字。但我認為,在原油價格平穩的環境下,天然氣價格將成長 2% 至 3%,這可能是相當不錯的基準。當然,我聽過更高的數字。

  • So if you're flat on crude oil with current gas volumes, is that somewhere between 800 million a day to 1.2 Bcf a day growth in gas. That's kind of the range that I think you land in. And obviously, as Jen alluded to earlier, we feel like a lot of what's getting drilled is going to get drilled along Targa acreage. So we feel like that we're going to capture a larger percentage of whatever does get drilled and be in a good position for continued growth.

    因此,如果原油產量與當前天然氣產量持平,那麼天然氣產量的日增幅將在 8 億立方英尺至 12 億立方英尺之間。我認為您處於這樣的範圍。顯然,正如 Jen 之前提到的,我們覺得許多鑽探工作都會在 Targa 區塊沿線進行。因此,我們覺得我們將獲得更大比例的鑽探機會,並處於持續成長的良好位置。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Sunil Sibal, Seaport Global.

    Sunil Sibal,Seaport Global。

  • Sunil Sibal - Analyst

    Sunil Sibal - Analyst

  • Thanks for the color on the call. I just wanted to start off on the hedging position. I think you said you're hedged through '26. Have you layered on additional hedges in the recent few months?

    感謝您在通話中提供的資訊。我只是想開始對沖頭寸。我想你說過你已經度過了 26 年。近幾個月來您是否增加了額外的對沖?

  • Jennifer Kneale - President, General Partner

    Jennifer Kneale - President, General Partner

  • Sunil, this is Jen. I'd say that we're always continuing to add hedges. I think that we took a point of view previously when we stepped it up to be more than 90% hedged or at least 90% hedged through 2026 that was partially driven by a view of natural gas prices that we had. We've been continuing to add hedges since then, and we'll continue to add hedges going forward. I'd say that we are very disciplined around our hedging program and are more apt to add hedges than think about reducing our hedge exposure.

    蘇尼爾,這是 Jen。我想說的是,我們一直在增加對沖。我認為,當我們將其提高到 2026 年對沖率 90% 以上或至少 90% 時,我們之前就持有這樣一種觀點,這部分是受到我們對天然氣價格的看法所驅動的。從那時起我們就一直在不斷增加對沖,我們將繼續增加對沖。我想說的是,我們對沖計劃非常嚴格,我們更傾向於增加對沖,而不是考慮減少對沖風險。

  • And then, of course, we have a lot of protections in place from our fee floors as well. So when we talk about our hedging program, we're generally not talking about a whole lot of margin that has exposure there. But hedges do allow us to even protect that piece of margin that does have that exposure.

    當然,我們在費用最低限度方面也採取了許多保護措施。因此,當我們談論對沖計劃時,我們通常不會談論存在大量風險的保證金。但對沖確實可以讓我們保護有風險敞口的那部分保證金。

  • Sunil Sibal - Analyst

    Sunil Sibal - Analyst

  • Okay. And then going back to the volume question a little bit. I hear that producers not changed their production plans. What is your sense in terms of talking to them at what kind of crude oil prices do you think there will be a response from their side in terms of change of drilling plans?

    好的。然後再稍微回到音量問題。我聽說製片人沒有改變他們的製作計劃。在與他們交談時,您認為在什麼樣的原油價格下,他們會對鑽井計畫的改變做出何種反應?

  • Jennifer Kneale - President, General Partner

    Jennifer Kneale - President, General Partner

  • I think that every producer is different, Sunil. And ultimately, that's part of what are going to be a whole lot of Board discussions for each and every producer. I think that so far, we've frankly seen a mixed bag. We saw one smaller producer that added a rig, and we've seen one smaller producer that pushed some completions. In terms of the larger producers that would really be the needle movers on Targa systems, we're just hearing that they've got multiyear drilling programs underway, and there's no changes at this point in time.

    我認為每個製作人都是不同的,Sunil。最終,這將成為每位製片人都需要進行的大量董事會討論的一部分。我認為,到目前為止,我們看到的結果好壞參半。我們看到一家規模較小的生產商增加了一台鑽孔機,我們也看到一家規模較小的生產商推進了一些完井工作。就真正推動 Targa 系統發展的大型生產商而言,我們剛剛聽說他們正在進行多年的鑽探計劃,目前沒有任何變化。

  • So I think each and every producer will evaluate their individual situation, their individual acreage, their individual contracts for services and other items that really impact their economics as well and then make the best decisions for them. We're well positioned with the assets that we have in place to service all our producer customers. And we believe that our assets will be well utilized. And so I think that we're sitting in a really good spot. But ultimately, I think a lot is going to continue to shake out.

    因此,我認為每個生產者都會評估他們各自的情況、各自的種植面積、各自的服務合約以及其他真正影響他們經濟狀況的項目,然後為他們做出最佳決策。我們擁有充足的資產,可以為所有生產商客戶提供服務。並且我們相信我們的資產將得到充分利用。所以我認為我們目前處於一個非常好的位置。但最終,我認為很多事情都會繼續發生。

  • It feels like every day, we've got a little bit of a changing environment here, so is to say where we'll end up when we finish this year. But I think that we've got really strong producers that are moving volumes onto our system. They are in an excellent position from a balance sheet perspective. And that's part of what gives us a lot of confidence going forward in some level of continued activity.

    感覺每天,我們這裡的環境都在發生一些變化,所以可以說,當我們今年結束時,我們將處於什麼位置。但我認為我們擁有真正強大的生產商,他們正在將大量產品轉移到我們的系統上。從資產負債表的角度來看,他們處於非常有利的地位。這也是我們對未來繼續進行某種程度的活動充滿信心的原因之一。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. And I would now like to hand the conference back over to Tristan Richardson for further remarks.

    謝謝。現在我想將會議交還給特里斯坦·理查森,請他進一步發言。

  • Tristan Richardson - Vice President, Investor Relations and Fundamentals

    Tristan Richardson - Vice President, Investor Relations and Fundamentals

  • Thanks, Michelle, and thanks to everyone for joining the call this morning, and we appreciate your interest in Targa Resources.

    謝謝,米歇爾,也感謝大家今天早上參加電話會議,我們很感謝你們對 Targa Resources 的關注。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。祝大家有個愉快的一天。