Trex Company Inc (TREX) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Trex Company Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2021 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Viktoriia Nakhla. Please go ahead.

下午好，歡迎來到 Trex 公司第四季度和 2021 年全年收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。我現在想將會議轉交給 Viktoriia Nakhla。請繼續。

Thank you all for joining us today. With us on the call are Bryan Fairbanks, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Dennis Schemm, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Joining Bryan and Dennis is Amy Fernandez, Vice President and General Counsel, as well as other members of Trex management.

感謝大家今天加入我們。與我們通話的有總裁兼首席執行官 Bryan Fairbanks；高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Dennis Schemm。加入 Bryan 和 Dennis 的還有副總裁兼總法律顧問 Amy Fernandez 以及 Trex 管理層的其他成員。

The company issued a press release today after market close containing financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2021. This release is available on the company's website. This conference call is also being webcast and will be available on the Investor Relations page of the company's website for 30 days.

公司今天在收盤後發布了一份新聞稿，其中包含第四季度和 2021 年全年的財務業績。該新聞稿可在公司網站上獲取。此電話會議也進行網絡直播，並將在公司網站的投資者關係頁面上提供 30 天。

I would now like to turn the call over to Amy Fernandez. Amy?

我現在想把電話轉給 Amy Fernandez。艾米？

Thank you, Viktoriia. Before we begin, let me remind everyone that statements on this call regarding the company's expected future performance and conditions constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws.

謝謝你，維多利亞。在我們開始之前，讓我提醒大家，本次電話會議中關於公司預期未來業績和狀況的陳述構成聯邦證券法意義上的前瞻性陳述。

These statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. For a discussion of such risks and uncertainties, please see our most recent Form 10-K and Form 10-Qs as well as our 1933 and other 1934 Act filings with the SEC.

這些陳述受某些風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中表達的結果存在重大差異。有關此類風險和不確定性的討論，請參閱我們最近的 10-K 表格和 10-Q 表格以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的 1933 年和其他 1934 年法案文件。

Additionally, non-GAAP financial measures will be referenced in this call. A reconciliation of these measures to the comparable GAAP financial measure found in our earnings press release at trex.com. The company expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise publicly any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

此外，本次電話會議將參考非 GAAP 財務指標。這些措施與我們在 trex.com 上的收益新聞稿中發現的可比 GAAP 財務措施的協調。公司明確否認有義務公開更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述，無論是由於新信息、未來事件或其他原因。

With that introduction, I will turn the call over to Bryan Fairbanks.

通過這個介紹，我將把電話轉給布萊恩費爾班克斯。

Thank you, Amy, and good evening, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to review our fourth quarter and full year 2021 performance along with our business outlook. First, I'd like to thank our extraordinary employees who continue to deliver great results through talent, hard work and innovation, along with our channel partners, distributors and professional contractors who are the best in the business and are poised to execute growth in the composite decking and railing market.

謝謝你，艾米，大家晚上好。感謝您今天加入我們，回顧我們第四季度和 2021 年全年的業績以及我們的業務前景。首先，我要感謝我們卓越的員工，他們繼續通過才華、努力和創新取得巨大成果，還要感謝我們的渠道合作夥伴、分銷商和專業承包商，他們是業內最優秀的，並準備在市場上實現增長。複合地板和欄杆市場。

We closed 2021 with all-time record sales of $1.2 billion for the full year and a record finish to an exceptional year with fourth quarter sales increasing 33% to $304 million and adjusted earnings per share growing 49% to $0.55 per share.

我們以 2021 年全年銷售額創歷史新高的 12 億美元收官，第四季度銷售額增長 33% 至 3.04 億美元，調整後每股收益增長 49% 至每股 0.55 美元，創下了非凡的一年。

Our expanded manufacturing capacity enables us to effectively support strong organic growth while also allowing our channel partners to infill inventory. Strong revenue growth and replenished market inventories point to reduced product lead times and more normalized seasonality in 2022.

我們擴大的製造能力使我們能夠有效地支持強勁的有機增長，同時也允許我們的渠道合作夥伴補充庫存。強勁的收入增長和補充的市場庫存表明 2022 年產品交貨時間縮短，季節性更加正常。

Consumer demand for our products remains robust, supported by significant repair and remodel activity, especially within the outdoor living category, which shows strong momentum as the fastest-growing category of repair and remodel, and supported by our continued conversion of wood to composite market share.

消費者對我們產品的需求依然強勁，受到大量維修和改造活動的支持，尤其是在戶外生活類別中，作為增長最快的維修和改造類別，這顯示出強勁的勢頭，並受到我們木材向複合材料市場份額的持續轉變的支持.

Rising interest rates and higher home values favor repair and remodel spending as homeowners continue to invest in their existing residences and pursue renovation that enhance their lifestyle and outdoor living spaces.

不斷上升的利率和更高的房屋價值有利於維修和改造支出，因為房主繼續投資於他們現有的住宅並進行翻新以改善他們的生活方式和戶外生活空間。

Flexible outdoor living space is more essential than ever as consumers continue to reevaluate where and how they spend their time. So while COVID-related restrictions are easing, and leisure travel and other activities are returning to prepandemic levels, we expect demand to remain strong, driven by favorable secular trends.

隨著消費者不斷重新評估他們在哪里以及如何度過他們的時間，靈活的戶外生活空間比以往任何時候都更加重要。因此，儘管與 COVID 相關的限制正在放鬆，休閒旅行和其他活動正在恢復到大流行前的水平，但我們預計在有利的長期趨勢的推動下，需求將保持強勁。

The launch of our Trex Enhance products in January of 2019 was a significant catalyst that has accelerated our growth over the past few years. This product was truly an industry game changer, significantly expanding our addressable market by focusing on consumers who would convert from wood to Trex at the right price.

我們於 2019 年 1 月推出的 Trex Enhance 產品是一個重要的催化劑，在過去幾年加速了我們的增長。該產品真正改變了行業遊戲規則，通過專注於以合適的價格從木材轉向 Trex 的消費者，顯著擴大了我們的目標市場。

As a result, we've continued to drive wood to composite market share conversions at 200 basis points plus per year, a rate meaningfully greater than we've experienced in the past. Even with this accelerated pace, we estimate composites account for approximately 25% of the total decking market, but expect it will reach 45% to 50% in the future.

因此，我們繼續以每年 200 個基點以上的速度推動木材到復合材料市場份額的轉換，這一比率比我們過去經歷的要高得多。即使步伐加快，我們估計複合材料約佔整個裝飾市場的 25%，但預計未來將達到 45% 至 50%。

To support current demand and expected long-term growth, we successfully executed the largest capacity expansion program in Trex's history, which included construction of a new decking facility at our Virginia site and installation of additional production lines at our Nevada facility. Collectively, these expansion initiatives position us to effectively meet customer demand in 2022 by increasing total capacity 85% above 2019 volume levels.

為了支持當前的需求和預期的長期增長，我們成功地執行了 Trex 歷史上最大的產能擴張計劃，其中包括在我們弗吉尼亞州的工廠建造一個新的裝飾設施，並在我們的內華達州工廠安裝額外的生產線。總的來說，這些擴張計劃使我們能夠在 2022 年有效地滿足客戶需求，將總產能比 2019 年的產量水平提高 85%。

Additionally, in October of '21, we announced plans to develop a third U.S.-based Trex residential manufacturing facility on approximately 300 acres in Little Rock, Arkansas. Expected to commence operation in 2024, this $400 million capacity expansion program offers numerous strategic advantages, including increased proximity to essential raw materials, a strong pool of qualified and skilled labor, adjacency to major transportation hubs and is situated near key growth markets for wood conversion.

此外，在 2021 年 10 月，我們宣布計劃在阿肯色州小石城約 300 英畝的土地上開發位於美國的第三家 Trex 住宅製造工廠。這項耗資 4 億美元的產能擴張計劃預計將於 2024 年開始運營，具有眾多戰略優勢，包括更靠近基本原材料、擁有大量合格和熟練的勞動力、毗鄰主要交通樞紐以及靠近木材加工的主要增長市場.

Similar to our previous capacity expansion programs, this development will be modular in nature and calibrated to demand trends. When this plant opens, Trex will have a strategic advantage of unmatched geographical coverage with East Coast, West Coast and Central Region sites that will service our domestic pro channel and retail partners and also support our long-term growth opportunities in the international and cladding markets.

與我們之前的產能擴張計劃類似，這一開發項目本質上是模塊化的，並根據需求趨勢進行校準。該工廠開業後，Trex 將擁有無可匹敵的地理覆蓋東海岸、西海岸和中部地區站點的戰略優勢，這些站點將為我們的國內專業渠道和零售合作夥伴提供服務，並支持我們在國際和包層市場的長期增長機會.

Composites have lower market penetration outside of North America, and we believe our international growth can exceed our domestic market expansion pace on a long-term basis. We were pleased to meet with many of you at the recent International Builders' Show held in Orlando, where we were impressed with the high attendance numbers and interest in learning more about all of the ways Trex can be part of their outdoor living plans.

複合材料在北美以外的市場滲透率較低，我們相信我們的國際增長可以長期超過我們的國內市場擴張速度。我們很高興在最近於奧蘭多舉行的國際建築商展上與你們中的許多人會面，我們對展會的高出席率和了解更多有關 Trex 成為其戶外生活計劃一部分的所有方式的興趣印象深刻。

We also had record attendance at our TrexPro Summit held in San Antonio with participants from around the world. TrexPros are an elite group of contractors dedicated to the installation of Trex decking and railing products for whom Trex provides valuable benefits such as increased consumer exposure, customer leads, a profile on trex.com to showcase their work and extended warranty programs.

在聖安東尼奧舉行的 TrexPro 峰會上，我們的出席人數也創下了紀錄，來自世界各地的與會者都參加了會議。 TrexPros 是一群精英承包商，致力於安裝 Trex 甲板和欄杆產品，Trex 為他們提供有價值的好處，例如增加消費者曝光率、客戶線索、在 trex.com 上展示他們的工作和延長保修計劃的個人資料。

We launched a new marketing campaign for 2022 that highlights how Trex helps homeowners transform their outdoor dream ideas into reality, becoming the foundation for many of life's most memorable moments. Our We See It Too campaign launched January 1 with TV commercials on many popular channels.

我們為 2022 年推出了一項新的營銷活動，重點介紹 Trex 如何幫助房主將他們的戶外夢想變為現實，成為生活中許多最難忘時刻的基礎。我們的 We See It Too 活動於 1 月 1 日啟動，在許多熱門頻道播放了電視廣告。

Integrated content extends to social, digital and online video, amplified by radio, print, retail, strategic partnerships and more. For 30 years, Trex has invented, reinvented and defined the composite decking and outdoor living category, and this new campaign boldly differentiates Trex with a distinctive and memorable message that creates a category of 1.

集成內容擴展到社交、數字和在線視頻，並通過廣播、印刷、零售、戰略合作夥伴等得到放大。 30 年來，Trex 發明、重塑和定義了複合地板和戶外生活品類，而這次新活動大膽地通過獨特而令人難忘的信息使 Trex 脫穎而出，創造了 1 的品類。

As our business expands, we remain focused on growing in a sustainable and socially responsible manner and taking market share from wood. As our sales grow, so does Trex's positive impact on the environment by using recycled materials to manufacture the most aesthetically pleasing and long-lasting decking and railing products in the market.

隨著我們業務的擴展，我們仍然專注於以可持續和對社會負責的方式發展，並從木材中奪取市場份額。隨著我們銷售額的增長，Trex 通過使用回收材料製造市場上最美觀、最耐用的甲板和欄杆產品，對環境產生了積極影響。

To support our capacity expansion efforts and sales growth, we continue to grow our employee base with a focus on diversity, equity and inclusion and bringing new ideas and perspectives to our team.

為了支持我們的產能擴張努力和銷售增長，我們繼續擴大我們的員工基礎，重點關注多樣性、公平性和包容性，並為我們的團隊帶來新的想法和觀點。

In addition, the safety and well-being of our employees is of utmost importance, and we consistently prioritize safe practices and emphasize employee well-being. Reflective of this, we recently expanded ESG oversight at the executive level, naming Leslie Atkins Vice President of Marketing and ESG Development, long involved with steering the Trex brand, she has also been a steward of our ESG efforts since inception.

此外，我們員工的安全和福祉至關重要，我們始終將安全實踐放在首位並強調員工福祉。考慮到這一點，我們最近擴大了行政層面的 ESG 監督，任命 Leslie Atkins 為營銷和 ESG 發展副總裁，她長期參與 Trex 品牌的指導，自成立以來她也一直是我們 ESG 工作的管理者。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Dennis to provide a more detailed view of our financial performance. Dennis?

有了這個，我將把電話轉給丹尼斯，以更詳細地了解我們的財務業績。丹尼斯？

Thank you, Bryan, and good evening, everyone. I'm pleased to report on Trex's strong fourth quarter results and full year performance and provide expectations for the first quarter and full year of 2022.

謝謝你，布萊恩，大家晚上好。我很高興報告 Trex 強勁的第四季度業績和全年業績，並提供對 2022 年第一季度和全年的預期。

We are reporting fourth quarter top line growth of 33% to $304 million, led by 35% growth in net sales at Trex Residential to $288 million. The increase in sales reflects continued strong broad-based demand across all product lines in both the retail and pro channels and a favorable impact from pricing actions in Trex Residential. Trex commercial net sales increased 6% year-on-year to $16 million.

我們報告第四季度營收增長 33% 至 3.04 億美元，其中 Trex Residential 的淨銷售額增長 35% 至 2.88 億美元。銷售額的增長反映了零售和專業渠道所有產品線持續強勁的廣泛需求，以及 Trex Residential 定價行動的有利影響。 Trex 商業淨銷售額同比增長 6% 至 1600 萬美元。

Consolidated gross margin in the fourth quarter was 38.9% compared to 40.5% in the year ago quarter. Fourth quarter 2021 gross margin for Trex Residential and Trex Commercial were 39.7% and 24% compared to 41.3% and 28% in the fourth quarter of 2020.

第四季度綜合毛利率為 38.9%，而去年同期為 40.5%。 Trex Residential 和 Trex Commercial 2021 年第四季度的毛利率分別為 39.7% 和 24%，而 2020 年第四季度為 41.3% 和 28%。

The year-over-year decrease in 2021 fourth quarter gross margins was primarily due to increased raw material costs and higher transportation costs that more than offset increased efficiencies from higher capacity utilization and previous pricing actions.

2021 年第四季度毛利率同比下降的主要原因是原材料成本增加和運輸成本增加，這足以抵消產能利用率提高和之前定價行動帶來的效率提高。

In the 2021 fourth quarter, we recognized a $54 million goodwill impairment charge at Trex Commercial that was primarily due to a reduction in project commitments, which adversely impacted project backlog and forecasted net sales and EBITDA. The reduction in project commitments was influenced by a delay in new projects due to lingering uncertainty created in our commercial markets by the COVID-19 virus.

在 2021 年第四季度，我們在 Trex Commercial 確認了 5400 萬美元的商譽減值費用，這主要是由於項目承諾的減少，這對項目積壓和預測的淨銷售額和 EBITDA 產生了不利影響。由於 COVID-19 病毒在我們的商業市場上造成的揮之不去的不確定性，新項目的延遲影響了項目承諾的減少。

The delay in new projects, coupled with the company's continued successful fulfillment of prepandemic projects, resulted in lower project backlog and reduced forecasted net sales and EBITDA. The company expects revenues from Trex Commercial to be constrained in 2022, but increased bookings are expected to lead to a resumption of revenue growth in 2023.

新項目的延遲，加上公司繼續成功完成大流行前項目，導致項目積壓減少，預測淨銷售額和 EBITDA 減少。該公司預計 Trex Commercial 的收入將在 2022 年受到限制，但預計增加的預訂量將導致 2023 年恢復收入增長。

In addition, the company recognized a gain from insurance proceeds of $3.2 million during the fourth quarter of 2021, primarily related to the fire at the Trex Residential Virginia plant that occurred in March.

此外，該公司在 2021 年第四季度確認了 320 萬美元的保險收益收益，主要與 Trex Residential Virginia 工廠 3 月份發生的火災有關。

Excluding the goodwill impairment charge and the gain on insurance proceeds, selling, general and administrative expenses increased to $37 million compared to $34 million in the fourth quarter of 2020 as business travel and marketing-related expenses began to return to more normalized levels.

排除商譽減值費用和保險收益收益，銷售、一般和管理費用從 2020 年第四季度的 3400 萬美元增加到 3700 萬美元，因為商務旅行和營銷相關費用開始恢復到更正常的水平。

However, we continue to benefit from the operating leverage gain from our rapid sales increase with SG&A as a percentage of sales decreasing 290 basis points to 12.1% in the fourth quarter compared to the prior year quarter. Net income for the 2021 fourth quarter was $25 million or $0.22 per diluted share.

然而，與去年同期相比，第四季度 SG&A 銷售額佔銷售額的百分比下降 290 個基點至 12.1%，我們繼續受益於我們的銷售快速增長帶來的經營槓桿收益。 2021 年第四季度的淨收入為 2500 萬美元或攤薄後每股收益 0.22 美元。

Excluding the noncash goodwill impairment charge and the gain on insurance proceeds, adjusted net income was $64 million or $0.55 per diluted share, representing increases of 47% and 49%, respectively, from net income of $43 million or $0.37 per diluted share in the 2020 fourth quarter.

不包括非現金商譽減值費用和保險收益收益，調整後的淨收入為 6400 萬美元或攤薄後每股收益 0.55 美元，分別比 2020 年的淨收入 4300 萬美元或攤薄後每股收益 0.37 美元增長 47% 和 49%第四季度。

EBITDA, excluding the goodwill impairment charge and the gain on insurance proceeds, was $92 million, a 44% increase compared to EBITDA of $64 million reported in the year ago quarter. Fourth quarter 2021 adjusted EBITDA margin was 30.2% compared to 27.9% in the fourth quarter of 2020.

不包括商譽減值費用和保險收益收益的 EBITDA 為 9200 萬美元，與去年同期報告的 6400 萬美元 EBITDA 相比增長了 44%。 2021 年第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 30.2%，而 2020 年第四季度為 27.9%。

Summarizing the full year performance, consolidated net sales increased 36% to $1.2 billion with Trex Residential net sales growing 38% to $1.14 billion and Trex Commercial contributing $58 million to net sales.

總結全年業績，綜合淨銷售額增長 36% 至 12 億美元，其中 Trex Residential 淨銷售額增長 38% 至 11.4 億美元，Trex Commercial 貢獻了 5800 萬美元的淨銷售額。

Full year 2021 net income was $209 million or $1.80 per diluted share. Excluding the goodwill impairment charge and the gain on insurance proceeds of $8.7 million, adjusted net income was $243 million or $2.10 per diluted share, representing increases of 35% and 36%, respectively, from adjusted net income of $180 million or $1.55 per diluted share in 2020, net of the $6.5 million surface flaking warranty charge.

2021 年全年淨收入為 2.09 億美元或每股攤薄收益 1.80 美元。扣除商譽減值費用和 870 萬美元的保險收益收益，調整後淨收入為 2.43 億美元或每股攤薄收益 2.10 美元，分別比調整後淨收入 1.8 億美元或每股攤薄收益 1.55 美元增長 35% 和 36% 2020 年，扣除 650 萬美元的表面剝落保修費用。

Net of these items that I just mentioned, full year 2021 adjusted EBITDA increased 38% to $357 million. Full year 2021 adjusted EBITDA margin was 29.8%. We generated record cash from operations of $258 million in 2021, an increase of 38% from 2020. The strength of our cash flow enabled us to self-finance the recent capacity expansion program while returning capital to shareholders through stock repurchases.

扣除我剛才提到的這些項目，2021 年全年調整後的 EBITDA 增長了 38%，達到 3.57 億美元。 2021 年全年調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 29.8%。 2021 年，我們從運營中產生了創紀錄的 2.58 億美元現金，比 2020 年增長了 38%。強勁的現金流使我們能夠為近期的產能擴張計劃自籌資金，同時通過股票回購向股東返還資本。

Full year capital expenditures were $159 million and were primarily related to our capacity expansion program. We repurchased approximately 809,000 shares of outstanding common stock in 2021 at average price of $91 per share, totaling $74 million.

全年資本支出為 1.59 億美元，主要與我們的產能擴張計劃有關。我們在 2021 年以每股 91 美元的平均價格回購了約 809,000 股已發行普通股，總計 7,400 萬美元。

As of December 31, 2021, we have repurchased 3.6 million shares under our stock repurchase program and have 8 million shares remaining to be repurchased under the current program. Also, since the end of the fourth quarter, we have been active in purchasing shares under the same program.

截至 2021 年 12 月 31 日，我們已根據我們的股票回購計劃回購了 360 萬股股票，並根據當前計劃剩餘 800 萬股股票有待回購。此外，自第四季度末以來，我們一直在積極購買同一計劃下的股票。

Looking ahead, we see a strong 2022 with double-digit top line growth, inclusive of the onetime channel infill in 2021. We are also providing the following metrics for the first quarter and full year of 2022. First quarter consolidated net sales are expected to range from $320 million to $330 million, representing year-on-year growth of 32% at the midpoint.

展望未來，我們預計 2022 年將實現兩位數的收入增長，包括 2021 年的一次性渠道填充。我們還提供了 2022 年第一季度和全年的以下指標。預計第一季度綜合淨銷售額從 3.2 億美元到 3.3 億美元不等，按中點計算同比增長 32%。

For the full year 2022, we expect revenues to return to double-digit growth rates with a normalized seasonal cadence similar to prepandemic patterns we experienced in 2016 to 2018. In addition, we anticipate pricing realization will more than offset a more modest raw material and labor inflationary environment.

對於 2022 年全年，我們預計收入將以類似於我們在 2016 年至 2018 年經歷的大流行前模式的正常季節性節奏恢復到兩位數的增長率。此外，我們預計定價實現將超過抵消更適度的原材料和勞動力通脹環境。

SG&A is expected to be in the range of 12% to 13% of sales for the full year, which includes the higher investment in marketing and branding spend now that we have ramped up our new capacity and market inventories have improved.

SG&A 預計佔全年銷售額的 12% 至 13%，其中包括由於我們已經提高了新產能並且市場庫存有所改善而對營銷和品牌支出的更高投資。

For the full year 2022, we anticipate incremental EBITDA margin to be between 30% to 35% when compared to the adjusted EBITDA figures discussed earlier. Our tax rate is anticipated at approximately 25%.

與之前討論的調整後的 EBITDA 數據相比，我們預計 2022 年全年的 EBITDA 利潤率增量將在 30% 至 35% 之間。我們的稅率預計約為 25%。

Depreciation will range from $40 million to $45 million. And we expect full year spending on CapEx to be in the range of $200 million to $220 million, inclusive of the Little Rock capacity expansion, the new corporate headquarters and additional investments back into our core business.

折舊將從 4000 萬美元到 4500 萬美元不等。我們預計全年資本支出將在 2 億至 2.2 億美元之間，包括小石城產能擴張、新公司總部和對我們核心業務的額外投資。

Now I will turn the call back to Bryan.

現在我將把電話轉回給布萊恩。

Thank you, Dennis. Our strategic actions in 2021 and continued robust demand put us firmly on track to deliver strong double-digit growth in 2022, and we remain focused on converting consumers to the performance advantages of composites over wood.

謝謝你，丹尼斯。我們在 2021 年的戰略行動和持續強勁的需求使我們堅定地走上了在 2022 年實現兩位數強勁增長的軌道，我們仍然專注於讓消費者接受複合材料相對於木材的性能優勢。

Supported by our industry-leading brand and recent capacity expansion program, we remain well positioned as the prime beneficiary of long-term trends towards outdoor living. Operator, we can now take questions.

在我們行業領先的品牌和最近的產能擴張計劃的支持下，我們仍然是戶外生活長期趨勢的主要受益者。接線員，我們現在可以提問了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Keith Hughes with Truist.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Keith Hughes 和 Truist。

Question is about the incremental EBITDA margin guide for the year. Can you talk about how you think that will pace during the year? And you did above that in the second half of '21. If you could talk about what the puts or take -- put and takes are that are bringing it down year-over-year.

問題是關於當年的增量 EBITDA 利潤率指南。你能談談你認為這一年將如何發展嗎？而你在 21 年下半年的表現超過了這一點。如果你能談談看跌期權或看跌期權——看跌期權和看跌期權正在逐年下降。

Keith, this is Dennis. Thanks for the question. It's a good question. So I'm expecting to see EBITDA margins improve sequentially quarter-to-quarter as we move through the year, and we should see our highest EBITDA margins in that Q3, Q4 time frame.

基思，這是丹尼斯。謝謝你的問題。這是個好問題。因此，我希望看到 EBITDA 利潤率隨著我們今年的發展而逐季提高，我們應該會在第三季度、第四季度的時間框架內看到我們最高的 EBITDA 利潤率。

Some of the puts and takes that we're looking at clearly are pricing coming into full utilization here in the first quarter. That's primarily the biggest impact. Secondarily, we're still dealing with inflation. And although we anticipate it moderating somewhat, we are seeing some headwinds right now with regards to higher transportation expenses.

我們清楚地看到的一些看跌期權和看跌期權的定價在第一季度在這裡得到充分利用。這主要是最大的影響。其次，我們仍在應對通貨膨脹。儘管我們預計它會有所緩和，但我們現在看到了一些與更高的運輸費用有關的不利因素。

We're seeing some higher fuel costs on the natural gas side and oil. And we're also seeing some delayed lead times on our capital spending, which is resulting in some of our cost-outs being pushed out a little further along. So that's some of the puts and takes that we're dealing with here in 2022.

我們看到天然氣和石油的燃料成本有所上升。而且我們還看到我們的資本支出的交貨時間有所延遲，這導致我們的一些成本支出被推遲了一點。這就是我們在 2022 年要處理的一些問題。

If I could sneak 1 more in on the gross margin. Will it also ramp up very similar to EBITDA? And do you think you'll be above water year-over-year above gross margins in the first half of '22?

如果我能在毛利率上多偷偷摸摸 1。它也會像 EBITDA 一樣上升嗎？你認為你會在 22 年上半年高於毛利率嗎？

And we're going to continue to put a lot of focus and attention on our gross margins. That's always been the way and this year is not going to be any different. I would expect the gross margins to follow a similar cadence to the EBITDA margins as well. So again, pricing coming more into play here by the end of the first quarter, inflation moderating somewhat. And then we talked about some of those headwinds that we're dealing with.

我們將繼續非常關注我們的毛利率。一直都是這樣，今年也不會有什麼不同。我預計毛利率也將遵循與 EBITDA 利潤率類似的節奏。因此，到第一季度末，定價再次在這裡發揮更大作用，通脹有所緩和。然後我們談到了我們正在處理的一些不利因素。

The next question is from Ryan Merkel with William Blair.

下一個問題來自 Ryan Merkel 和 William Blair。

A couple of questions for me. So first off, can you just unpack sales outlook for '22 a little bit? How much will price contribute? And then just talk about what is more normalized seasonality just so we're all on the same page?

問我幾個問題。所以首先，你能稍微解開 22 年的銷售前景嗎？價格貢獻多少？然後只是談論什麼是更規範化的季節性，以便我們都在同一頁面上？

Yes. So when I think about more normalized seasonality, I'm really looking probably at the first quarter to be around like 26% of our sales. Then you move into the second quarter, we're about 50 -- second and third quarters, about 50% of the sales in fourth quarter would be the remainder. That's what I'd look to as far as more normalized seasonality.

是的。因此，當我考慮更正常化的季節性時，我真的很可能在第一季度看到我們銷售額的 26% 左右。然後你進入第二季度，我們大約有 50 個——第二和第三季度，第四季度大約 50% 的銷售額將是剩餘的。就更正常化的季節性而言，這就是我所期待的。

When I think about growth here in 2022, I guess I would look at it as follows here. So pricing will play a role. We're probably in the low teens for pricing. And we've got repair and remodel that we talked about extensively in Bryan's remarks that we feel is going to be strong. And in the past, we've doubled up on that repair and remodel metric.

當我考慮 2022 年這裡的增長時，我想我會按如下方式看待它。因此定價將發揮作用。我們的定價可能處於低位。我們已經進行了修復和改造，我們在 Bryan 的評論中廣泛討論了這些內容，我們認為這些內容會很強大。過去，我們在維修和改造指標上加倍了。

And so you take those 2, that gets you to the upper end of the growth range there. And then you have to back out the onetime inventory infill that we had in the back half of 2021. So that's kind of how I see the puts and takes for growth and how we get to the strong double-digit growth that we suggested.

所以你拿那兩個，這會讓你達到增長范圍的上限。然後你必須取消我們在 2021 年下半年的一次性庫存填充。這就是我對增長的看法，以及我們如何實現我們建議的強勁兩位數增長。

Got it. That's helpful. Okay. And then for my follow-up, low teens price capture in '22 is a little higher than I was thinking. How is that going to flow through the year? Is it going to start higher and then sort of kind of bleed down as you lap price increases from last year?

知道了。這很有幫助。好的。然後對於我的後續行動，22 年的低青少年價格捕獲比我想像的要高一點。這將如何貫穿這一年？它會開始走高，然後隨著去年的價格上漲而有所下降嗎？

Yes, I think that's the right way to expect it will be coming through. We took more of the pricing last year later in the year. So we'll have that full recapture as we move through the year. And we'll see what inflation does as we move through '22.

是的，我認為這是期望它通過的正確方式。我們在去年晚些時候採用了更多定價。因此，我們將在這一年中全面奪回。我們將看到通貨膨脹在我們走過 22 年時會發生什麼。

The next question is from Stan Elliott with Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Stan Elliott。

Congratulations on a nice year. Curious kind of high level, I'd love to hear you from the TrexPro day talking with the contractors, what are they telling you about their backlogs, about their order book? Obviously, the guidance seems very positive on the year. But just curious if you could dig down into that a little bit more.

祝賀你度過了美好的一年。奇怪的高層，我很想听聽你在 TrexPro 那天與承包商的談話，他們告訴你關於他們的積壓訂單，關於他們的訂單？顯然，今年的指導似乎非常積極。但只是想知道您是否可以深入研究一下。

Sure. Yes, TrexPro day was our contractors feel very positive about how the year is shaping up for them. Now these are some of our largest, most skilled contractors. You'd expect them to have longer backlogs. When we go down the ranks to talk to other contractors that may not be quite as large, we hear great optimism from them as well. Backlogs anywhere from 3 months out to 6 months. They've not seen a material shift in the marketplace and the interest for outdoor living.

當然。是的，TrexPro 日是我們的承包商對他們今年的發展情況感到非常樂觀的一天。現在，這些是我們最大、最熟練的承包商中的一些。你會期望他們有更長的積壓。當我們下級與其他規模可能不那麼大的承包商交談時，我們也從他們那裡聽到了極大的樂觀情緒。從 3 個月到 6 個月的任何地方的積壓。他們沒有看到市場發生重大變化，也沒有看到人們對戶外生活的興趣。

Great. And then you've also been working on improving the recycled content on the front end. I was wondering kind of how much progress you were able to make on that and any updates would be great.

偉大的。然後你也一直致力於改進前端的回收內容。我想知道你在這方面取得了多大進展，任何更新都會很棒。

So Trex Company has always prided ourselves on using approximately 95% recycled content in our products. Where we don't use it as great of a degree, for example, some of our aluminum and some of our railing products, we do strive to increase the recyclability content within that product.

因此，Trex 公司一直以在我們的產品中使用大約 95% 的回收材料而自豪。在我們沒有大量使用它的地方，例如，我們的一些鋁和一些欄杆產品，我們確實努力增加該產品中的可回收性內容。

But from a decking perspective, which is the largest share of revenues for the company, we've continued to drive recycled material use, and we continue to look for new opportunities to take more waste out of the waste stream and allow us to use it in decking.

但從裝飾的角度來看，這是公司收入的最大份額，我們繼續推動回收材料的使用，我們繼續尋找新的機會從廢物流中提取更多廢物並允許我們使用它在裝飾中。

The next question is from John Lovallo with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 John Lovallo。

First one, the step-up in CapEx to $200 million to $220 million versus, I think, $160 million in 2021. I was under the impression that CapEx would actually be down this year. Can you maybe just talk about some of the puts and takes that may have changed that?

第一個，資本支出增加到 2 億至 2.2 億美元，而我認為 2021 年為 1.6 億美元。我的印像是資本支出今年實際上會下降。你能不能談談一些可能改變了這一點的 puts 和 takes？

John, that's a fair question. And I know we talked about that earlier, that we expected to have a downsizing, if you will, in the CapEx spend. But that was before the Little Rock announcement, right? And so Little Rock is really the primary driver of that number coming -- going higher.

約翰，這是一個公平的問題。我知道我們之前討論過，如果你願意的話，我們預計會縮減資本支出。但那是在小石城宣布之前，對吧？因此，小石城確實是這個數字不斷上升的主要推動力。

So essentially, you've got Little Rock in there. We also have our new corporate headquarters being built as well. So that's going to be some additional CapEx spend. And then the remainder is investments back into the core.

所以基本上，你在那裡有小石城。我們也正在建設新的公司總部。所以這將是一些額外的資本支出。然後剩下的就是投資回到核心。

Got you. Okay. And then in terms of my follow-up, can you maybe just elaborate a little bit on the reduction in commercial project commitments? I guess I'm curious on what type of projects were kind of delayed or canceled, I should say. And then are they going to wood? Or are there competitors in the composite space taking the business?

明白了好的。然後就我的後續行動而言，你能否詳細說明一下商業項目承諾的減少？我想我很好奇什麼類型的項目被推遲或取消了，我應該說。然後他們要去木頭？或者在復合空間中是否有競爭對手搶走了這項業務？

So from a commercial perspective, different segment from residential, primarily talking about railing and certain staging products. During 2021, our net sales were still quite strong. However, as the company continued to successfully work down that existing backlog, we also experienced a reduction in new project commitments because of lingering uncertainty around COVID.

所以從商業的角度來看，與住宅不同的部分，主要是談論欄杆和某些舞台產品。 2021 年，我們的淨銷售額仍然相當強勁。然而，隨著公司繼續成功處理現有的積壓工作，我們也經歷了新項目承諾的減少，因為圍繞 COVID 的不確定性揮之不去。

So for all of the tailwinds that the residential side of the business received, the commercial side, mostly had headwinds. So COVID played a significant impact on that part of the business. The core markets that we serve, sports, entertainment, commercial office, were all hit hard and investments were sidelined until there was more certainty on what life post-COVID would look like.

因此，對於企業住宅方面收到的所有順風，商業方面大多有逆風。所以 COVID 對這部分業務產生了重大影響。我們服務的核心市場，體育、娛樂、商業辦公，都受到重創，投資被擱置，直到人們對 COVID 後的生活會是什麼樣子有了更多的確定性。

Remember at 1 point, it didn't look like many people were going back to the office. And of course, we're now seeing people go back, and we're seeing people go back to sporting events and other outdoor opportunities.

請記住，在 1 點，看起來並沒有多少人回到辦公室。當然，我們現在看到人們回歸，我們看到人們回歸體育賽事和其他戶外機會。

So given that reduced backlog and reduction in new project commitments to replace and build the backlog, we knew that the outlook for 2022 was diminished. Per our policies, we conducted an annual impairment test for goodwill.

因此，鑑於積壓的減少以及替換和構建積壓的新項目承諾的減少，我們知道 2022 年的前景已經黯淡。根據我們的政策，我們每年對商譽進行減值測試。

We assessed the project commitments, the reduction in our backlog because of COVID and our forecasted net sales and determined there was a negative impact on our financial condition. And as such, we decided to take the $54 million write-down based on -- off that analysis.

我們評估了項目承諾、因 COVID 而減少的積壓訂單以及我們的預測淨銷售額，並確定這對我們的財務狀況產生了負面影響。因此，我們決定根據該分析減記 5400 萬美元。

I think on the positive side here, we are starting to see that order book rebuilding, encouraged by the activity in the first couple of months of the year. But it will take some time. And we're still encouraged with the opportunity on the commercial side of the business.

我認為從積極的方面來看，我們開始看到訂單簿重建，受到今年頭幾個月活動的鼓舞。但這需要一些時間。我們仍然對業務商業方面的機會感到鼓舞。

The next question is from Jeff Stevenson with Loop Capital.

下一個問題來自 Loop Capital 的 Jeff Stevenson。

Congrats on a strong year.

恭喜你度過了豐收的一年。

Thanks, Jeff.

謝謝，傑夫。

Sure. And was there any negative impact from Omicron in January? And did you have any labor logistics or material headwinds from that, that will impact the first quarter?

當然。一月份 Omicron 是否有任何負面影響？您是否有任何會影響第一季度的勞動力物流或材料逆風？

Yes. Like everybody else, we did see elevated absences in January from Omicron. We saw some in December as well. That was probably a little bit heavier. The impact of that is inclusive of the guidance that we provided in the first quarter.

是的。和其他人一樣，我們確實看到 1 月份 Omicron 的缺勤率有所上升。我們在 12 月也看到了一些。那可能有點重。其影響包括我們在第一季度提供的指導。

Transportation, there were some, I guess, up days and down days. But it wasn't -- we didn't struggle too much through January. One of the things we did run was more over time in January to be able to offset those absences we had.

運輸，我猜，有一些上漲的日子和下跌的日子。但事實並非如此——我們在整個一月份並沒有掙扎太多。我們所做的其中一件事是在一月份隨著時間的推移而增加，以抵消我們的缺席。

Okay. Great. And then can we just get an update on channel inventories right now? And how much of your kind of first quarter sales guidance is related to inventory channel bill?

好的。偉大的。然後我們可以立即獲得渠道庫存的更新嗎？您的第一季度銷售指導有多少與庫存渠道賬單相關？

So recall, normally, the first quarter is going to be building of inventory to support the busiest part of the season. And that's exactly what we are seeing. Coming into the end of the year, if you remember back to the third quarter, I talked about our dealer level inventories improving significantly.

所以回想一下，通常情況下，第一季度將建立庫存以支持本季最繁忙的部分。這正是我們所看到的。進入年底，如果你記得回到第三季度，我談到我們的經銷商水平庫存顯著改善。

And then through the end of the year, our distributor level inventory has improved significantly as well. Now we're back into a normal inventory build to support Q2 and Q3 in the marketplace.

然後到今年年底，我們的分銷商庫存也有了顯著改善。現在我們回到正常的庫存構建以支持市場上的第二季度和第三季度。

The next question is from Trey Grooms with Stephens.

下一個問題來自 Trey Grooms 和 Stephens。

So first one, Dennis, I just want to make sure I got this right. On the kind of the quarterly cadence you outlined earlier, you mentioned, I think -- and I'm probably missing something here, but I think you said Q1 is going to be 26% of full year. And just kind of backing into that, the midpoint of the guidance range, if you gross that up, it just implies something like 5%. So growth for the full year. So what am I missing there on that math?

所以第一個，丹尼斯，我只是想確保我做對了。關於你之前概述的那種季度節奏，你提到過，我想 - 我可能在這裡遺漏了一些東西，但我認為你說第一季度將佔全年的 26%。只是有點回到指導範圍的中點，如果你把它加起來，它只意味著大約 5%。所以全年增長。那我在那個數學上錯過了什麼？

I think the best way to take -- to look, when we talk about what historical looks like, it is going back from 2016 to 2018 time frame and looking at those quarterly averages, increases and decreases. And the reason that time is important, it takes the entire -- takes the pandemic out of it, but it also takes the launch of Enhance out of it as well.

我認為最好的方法是——看看，當我們談論歷史的樣子時，它是從 2016 年到 2018 年的時間框架，並查看那些季度平均值、增加和減少。時間很重要的原因是，它需要整個 - 消除大流行，但它也需要啟動 Enhance。

No, yes, I get all that. I'm just trying to reconcile the arithmetic behind the $325 million is the kind of midpoint of the guidance for revenue for the first quarter. If that's 26%, then that implies something like 5% growth for the full year.

不，是的，我明白了。我只是想調和 3.25 億美元背後的算術是第一季度收入指導的中點。如果那是 26%，那麼這意味著全年增長大約 5%。

The 26% is not part of our guidance.

26% 不是我們指導的一部分。

Okay. Okay. Just making sure because I heard that, and I knew I was thrown off there somewhere with the math on that. Okay. Fair enough. Thanks for clearing that up.

好的。好的。只是確定一下，因為我聽到了，而且我知道我在數學上被扔到了那裡。好的。很公平。感謝您清理它。

And then second question is EBITDA margins, Dennis mentioned, you said that it should ramp in kind of the Q3, Q4 time frame. And I think the long-term guide is for 35% to 45% incremental margin -- EBITDA margins. Is that still the right way to think about long-term incrementals? And at what point do you think we'd kind of return to that sort of flow-through?

然後第二個問題是 EBITDA 利潤率，丹尼斯提到，你說它應該在第三季度、第四季度的時間框架內上升。我認為長期指導是 35% 到 45% 的增量利潤率——EBITDA 利潤率。這仍然是考慮長期增量的正確方法嗎？您認為我們什麼時候會回到那種流程？

Yes, Trey. So no, the guide for 2022 is 30% to 35% incremental EBITDA margins, just to be clear.

是的，特雷。所以不，2022 年的指南是 30% 到 35% 的增量 EBITDA 利潤率，只是為了明確。

And as we go forward, the reason we pulled that back a little bit this year from where we normally are is we're bringing our marketing, our travel and payment, our show expenses back to a normalized level from where we were in prior years. I expect as we move forward, you'll see that move back to the more normalized level of the $35 million to $40 million incremental.

隨著我們的前進，今年我們將其從往常的水平略微拉低的原因是我們將我們的營銷、旅行和付款、我們的展會費用從前幾年恢復到正常水平.我希望隨著我們的前進，您會看到它回到更正常的 3500 萬至 4000 萬美元增量水平。

Yes. That's what I was getting at. I was clear on this year. I just know long term, 35% to 40%, that's still a good target.

是的。這就是我的意思。今年我很清楚。我只知道從長遠來看，35% 到 40%，這仍然是一個很好的目標。

The next question is from Ketan Mamtora with BMO Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Ketan Mamtora。

Can you talk a little bit about what you're seeing on the international side and on the cladding side? There's a couple of opportunities that you guys have talked about. And is there any way to kind of size what the medium-term opportunity could be there?

你能談談你在國際方面和包層方面看到的情況嗎？你們談到了幾個機會。有什麼方法可以確定中期機會的大小嗎？

Yes. International, we do continue to see that coming back. We did have to deemphasize that for a couple of years. But through the fourth quarter of this year, we were able to rebuild inventories to get the season started right in these marketplaces.

是的。國際，我們確實繼續看到它回來了。幾年來，我們確實不得不淡化這一點。但到今年第四季度，我們能夠重建庫存，讓這些市場的銷售季順利開始。

So I'm excited about the growth opportunity. I've said in the past that we see the international markets being able to outgrow our North America markets. I still hold to that. We'll be in much better shape, inventory wise, this year.

所以我對增長機會感到興奮。我過去曾說過，我們看到國際市場的增長能夠超過我們的北美市場。我仍然堅持這一點。今年我們在庫存方面的狀況要好得多。

As it relates to the cladding marketplace, we've now been able to show the customers that are interested in using our decking and cladding that the product is available on normalized lead times so that they can start quoting that. We really hadn't been quoting all that much business over the past couple of years. So we're back out selling again actively into that marketplace.

由於它與包層市場相關，我們現在已經能夠向有興趣使用我們的裝飾和包層的客戶展示該產品可按標準化交貨時間提供，以便他們可以開始報價。在過去的幾年裡，我們真的沒有引用那麼多的業務。所以我們再次積極地向那個市場銷售。

Understood. And just as my follow-up, what is embedded within your guidance for sort of inflation for FY '22?

明白了。正如我的後續行動一樣，您對 22 財年通貨膨脹的指導意見中包含什麼？

The -- our inflation expectations are within the guidance that we've provided. As Dennis mentioned earlier, we have seen some inflation into the new year, but we do expect that to moderate as we go out through the rest of this year.

- 我們的通脹預期在我們提供的指導範圍內。正如丹尼斯之前提到的，我們已經看到新的一年出現了一些通貨膨脹，但我們確實預計在今年剩餘時間裡這種情況會有所緩和。

The next question is from Reuben Garner with The Benchmark Co.

下一個問題來自 The Benchmark Co. 的 Reuben Garner。

Congrats on the strong close of the year. Most of my questions have been answered, but I do want to follow up on 1. I wanted to see if there's any way you could kind of quantify opportunities maybe that you guys had to walk away from over the last couple of years, whether it's internationally or in the U.S. just because of your capacity situation.

祝賀今年的強勢收盤。我的大部分問題都已得到解答，但我確實想跟進 1。我想看看是否有任何方法可以量化你們在過去幾年中不得不放棄的機會，無論是國際或在美國祇是因為你的能力情況。

Specifically talking about maybe some smaller players in the market that maybe we're able to benefit because Trex -- the industry leader was sold out so often. Is there any numbers or way to quantify what might have been missed over the last 2, 3 years as you guys were trying to catch up?

具體來說，也許是市場上一些較小的參與者，也許我們能夠從中受益，因為 Trex——行業領導者經常被搶購一空。是否有任何數字或方法可以量化過去 2 年、3 年你們試圖追趕的過程中可能遺漏的內容？

Well, you're right. There are things that we have had to walk away from as we've managed through the capacity constraints over the past couple of years. I would say last year was a position where we started to more normalize in the marketplace. And with inventories being built back to more normalized levels, we truly get back to a regular cadence for the year. We've not tried to put a number to what those sales are.

嗯，你是對的。在過去幾年中，我們已經克服了容量限制，因此有些事情我們不得不放棄。我想說去年是我們開始在市場上更加正常化的位置。隨著庫存恢復到更正常的水平，我們真正回到了今年的正常節奏。我們沒有嘗試用數字來說明這些銷售額是多少。

And just a quick follow-up, Bryan. Do you think that you've already started to kind of -- I guess, how much of the strength you saw in 2021 was maybe you guys recapturing some of that business that, that was gone versus there was a lot of infill obviously at the end of last year in your own channels? Like are you just now at the point where maybe you can go after some of that business that maybe you could have had before because you've been still trying to fill the channel?

只是快速跟進，布萊恩。你認為你已經開始有點——我想，你在 2021 年看到的力量有多大可能是你們重新奪回了一些已經消失的業務，而顯然在去年年底在你自己的渠道？就像你現在正處於這樣的時刻，也許你可以追求一些你以前可能擁有的業務，因為你一直在努力填補渠道？

I did a lot of plant tours with our sales team during the fourth quarter, showing both our existing customers who have been loyal to us throughout as well as other customers who may be carrying competing brands, the capacity we have and our ability to service them.

在第四季度，我和我們的銷售團隊進行了多次工廠參觀，向我們展示了一直忠於我們的現有客戶以及可能擁有競爭品牌的其他客戶、我們擁有的能力以及我們為他們提供服務的能力.

The next question is from Tim Wojs with Baird.

下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Tim Wojs。

I had 1 kind of modeling question and then a bigger picture one. But on the modeling question, just -- is there a way that we can quantify what the channel infill kind of load-in comp is? I don't know if you want to put a sales dollar number on it or some sort of kind of like lead time or kind of weeks of inventory. Or just any more color you can kind of give us just so we can kind of make sure we're on the same page with some comps.

我有一種建模問題，然後是一個更大的問題。但是關於建模問題，只是 - 有沒有一種方法可以量化加載 comp 的通道填充類型？我不知道你是否想在上面加上銷售美元數字，或者某種類似交貨時間或庫存週數的數字。或者你可以給我們更多的顏色，這樣我們就可以確保我們與一些伴奏在同一頁面上。

Yes, Tim, it's a good question. So our estimates, right, are pointing to about $100 million in infill that happened in the back half of 2021.

是的，蒂姆，這是個好問題。因此，我們的估計是正確的，指向 2021 年下半年發生的約 1 億美元的填充。

Okay. Okay. That's helpful. And then I guess on a bigger picture question, just as you think about, Bryan, getting to that kind of 45% to 50% penetration of composite relative to the market, is there any kind of change in the cost of getting to that incremental penetration? Like for an incremental 5% of market penetration, is that cost to retain that penetration changed at all either positively or negatively?

好的。好的。這很有幫助。然後我想在一個更大的問題上，就像你想的那樣，布萊恩，複合材料相對於市場的滲透率達到 45% 到 50%，實現這種增量的成本是否有任何變化滲透？就像增加 5% 的市場滲透率一樣，保持滲透率的成本是否發生了積極或消極的變化？

Well, there's an incremental change in the short term here because we need to get back to a normalized cadence for marketing. We've pulled back on that past few years. We will get back into normalized cadence for that.

好吧，短期內會有漸進的變化，因為我們需要回到正常的營銷節奏。過去幾年我們已經退縮了。為此，我們將恢復正常節奏。

And we see that as important to be able to continue driving that wood conversion opportunity, getting our name in front of people who are in the market for decking, whether it be wood or for competitive products, and showing them why they should make the Trex decision.

我們認為能夠繼續推動木材轉換機會同樣重要，讓我們的名字出現在裝飾市場的人們面前，無論是木材還是競爭產品，並向他們展示為什麼他們應該製造 Trex決定。

Okay. Okay. So '22 is really more of just, I guess, kind of a catch-up now that you've got capacity and you've got the channel and that inventory position.

好的。好的。所以我想，'22 真的更像是一種追趕，因為你有能力，你有渠道和庫存位置。

Yes.

是的。

The next question is from Steven Ramsey with Thompson Research Group.

下一個問題來自 Thompson Research Group 的 Steven Ramsey。

Starting off with drivers of sales growth for the year, how much of that is pure core wood conversion? And how much of that is international growth kicking in, new construction, cladding, some of those other adjacent areas of opportunities?

從當年的銷售增長驅動因素開始，其中有多少是純芯木轉換？其中有多少來自國際增長、新建築、覆層以及其他一些相鄰的機會領域？

Yes, I'd love to say that there's enough data out there in the marketplace that I could break each of those down and be able to give you accurate numbers. I think the right way to look at it is we've always looked at our business using kind of the remodeling -- repair and remodel growth numbers as a baseline for the business.

是的，我想說市場上有足夠的數據，我可以將其中的每一個分解並能夠為您提供準確的數字。我認為正確的看待它的方式是我們一直在使用重塑的方式來看待我們的業務——修復和重塑增長數字作為業務的基準。

On top of that, wood conversion opportunity, growth in international markets as well as cladding along the way, that gets us to the double-digit sales increase for the year.

最重要的是，木材轉換機會、國際市場的增長以及沿途的包層，使我們今年的銷售額實現了兩位數的增長。

Okay. Excellent. And then is there embedded with the channel infill that you've done, mix that points to continued increase on the enhanced line? I know it's coming from a lower base, but is there any read-through on penetration of that lower-priced product?

好的。出色的。然後有沒有嵌入通道填充，你做的，混合點繼續增加增強線？我知道它來自較低的基數，但是否有任何關於該低價產品滲透率的通讀？

Through '21, we continued to see strong growth across all of our product lines and in line with our expectations.

通過'21，我們繼續看到我們所有產品線的強勁增長，並且符合我們的預期。

The next question is from Phil Ng with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Phil Ng。

You guys have been constrained from a capacity standpoint in the last few years. So I'm just curious, looking in 2022, how much bandwidth you have from a capacity standpoint? So if you could quantify that, maybe capacity would be helpful. And when we think about Little Rock, as you kind of ramp that up, Bryan, appreciating it's modular in nature, is there a good way to think about how much capacity that would free up at least in the first phase of that ramp?

在過去的幾年裡，從容量的角度來看，你們一直受到限制。所以我很好奇，展望 2022 年，從容量的角度來看，您擁有多少帶寬？因此，如果您可以對其進行量化，那麼容量可能會有所幫助。當我們考慮 Little Rock 時，當你有點提升它時，Bryan，欣賞它本質上的模塊化，是否有一個好的方法來考慮至少在該提升的第一階段可以釋放多少容量？

So I think the best way to size the capacity is what I said in my comments about the 85% over where we were from a 2019 perspective. And as we look out towards Little Rock coming on, which would be 2024 time frame, Little Rock has the opportunity to be the largest facility across our system. So there's a significant amount of growth opportunity there.

因此，我認為確定容量的最佳方式是我在評論中所說的，從 2019 年的角度來看，我們的容量增加了 85%。當我們展望 Little Rock 即將到來時，這將是 2024 年的時間框架，Little Rock 有機會成為我們系統中最大的設施。所以那裡有大量的增長機會。

Okay. Of that 85%, any color on how much of that is already consumed, Bryan?

好的。在這 85% 中，有多少已經被消耗掉了，Bryan？

We've not provided utilization.

我們沒有提供利用率。

Okay. And then a quick 1 for Dennis. The 12% to 13% SG&A as a percentage of sales for guidance for this year, is that a good way to think about it in 2023? Or is this more of a catch-up here? I just want to get a better sense. Is there an opportunity for some SG&A leverage going forward?

好的。然後是丹尼斯的快速 1 分。 12% 到 13% 的 SG&A 作為今年指導銷售額的百分比，這是在 2023 年考慮的好方法嗎？或者這更像是一個追趕？我只是想獲得更好的感覺。未來是否有機會利用一些 SG&A 槓桿？

Right. We've always talked about there being an opportunity longer term for SG&A leverage, especially as Enhance becomes a bigger part of the portfolio. So I think Bryan said it well earlier on that 2022 really becomes a catch-up year. And then from there, we should start to see that leverage really start to accelerate more.

正確的。我們一直在談論 SG&A 槓桿的長期機會，尤其是當 Enhance 成為投資組合中更大的一部分時。所以我認為 Bryan 早些時候說得很好，2022 年真的會成為一個追趕年。然後從那裡，我們應該開始看到槓桿率真正開始加速。

Next question is from Alexander Leach with Berenberg Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 Berenberg Capital Markets 的 Alexander Leach。

Sorry if I missed this as my line drops off, but do you have an internal rate of inflation that you can provide for us? And how is your internal rate inflation been trending through Q1 versus Q4? You've mentioned some persistent headwinds, but CPI has been accelerating, and it sounds as though inflation in your business isn't accelerating in anywhere near the same level.

很抱歉，如果我的線路掉線時錯過了這個，但是你有可以為我們提供的內部通貨膨脹率嗎？您的內部利率通脹在第一季度與第四季度的趨勢如何？你提到了一些持續的不利因素，但 CPI 一直在加速，聽起來你的企業的通貨膨脹率並沒有在接近同一水平的任何地方加速。

Yes. So we've built our forecast and plans with a rate of inflation that our research tells us that the business is going to see. Now inflation, as everybody on the call knows, is very difficult to predict as to which commodities it's going to hit and which ones it may alleviate over the course of the year. But that inflation is inherent in the incremental EBITDA guidance that we've provided, but we're not going to provide a specific percentage that we've assumed.

是的。因此，我們根據我們的研究告訴我們企業將要看到的通貨膨脹率來製定我們的預測和計劃。正如電話中的每個人都知道的那樣，現在很難預測通貨膨脹將在一年中打擊哪些商品以及可能緩解哪些商品。但這種通貨膨脹是我們提供的增量 EBITDA 指導中固有的，但我們不會提供我們假設的具體百分比。

Sure. And then just as a follow-up, is there still scope for room in the business to increase prices if the inflation persists through the year?

當然。然後作為後續行動，如果通貨膨脹持續一年，企業是否還有提高價格的空間？

Sure. There's going to be opportunity. If we see inflation roll through the economy at a degree where we see that pricing won't need to be taken, it's something that we'll do as needed.

當然。會有機會的。如果我們看到通貨膨脹在經濟中蔓延到我們認為不需要定價的程度，那麼我們將根據需要採取行動。

The next question is from Michael Rehaut with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Michael Rehaut。

Great. First, I just wanted to circle back to the top line outlook. And very helpful to give the $100 million of infill from the back half of '21. I also got to that similar math from an earlier question about if you just do that 26% on the first quarter, it implies like a 4% actually full year growth.

偉大的。首先，我只想回到最重要的前景。從 21 世紀下半年開始提供 1 億美元的填充非常有幫助。我還從之前的一個問題中得出了類似的數學結論，即如果你在第一季度做到了 26%，這意味著實際上全年增長了 4%。

So I'm just trying to get a sense, you obviously are saying double digits for the year. With that $100 million headwind though in the back half of '21, are we talking about maybe flat sales in the back half of the year? Or how should we think about comping that comp in 3Q and 4Q of this year?

所以我只是想了解一下，您顯然是在說今年的兩位數。儘管在 21 世紀下半年有 1 億美元的逆風，但我們是否在談論今年下半年的銷售額可能持平？或者我們應該如何考慮在今年的 3Q 和 4Q 中編寫該組件？

Yes, I would go back to my clarification comments and use the '16 through '18 seasonality as a guideline for the revenue calendarization.

是的，我會回到我的澄清意見，並使用 16 年到 18 年的季節性作為收入日曆化的指導方針。

Bryan, if you use that 26% and that gets you to the 4% for the full year, that's the challenge. But maybe we can talk about that offline.

布萊恩，如果你使用那 26% 並使你全年達到 4%，那就是挑戰。但也許我們可以在線下討論。

We've provided guidance of a double-digit revenue improvement during the course of the year.

在這一年中，我們提供了兩位數收入增長的指導。

Right. Okay. Well, maybe switching gears then to the margin guidance on the 30% to 35% EBITDA. I think the math kind of works out that you're looking for full year results and full year margin improvement on an operating margin, EBITDA basis.

正確的。好的。好吧，也許換檔然後轉向 30% 至 35% EBITDA 的利潤率指導。我認為你正在尋找全年業績和全年利潤率在營業利潤率和 EBITDA 基礎上的改善。

Just trying to get a sense, when would you expect the year-over-year return positive during the year? I mean a lot of companies have obviously been kind of saying not the first quarter, obviously, maybe getting close to parity on the second and positive in the back half. Is that how should -- how we should think about it for you as well?

只是想了解一下，您預計年內甚麼時候會出現同比回報為正？我的意思是，很多公司顯然都在說不是第一季度，顯然，第二季度可能接近平價，而後半部分則為正。我們應該如何為您考慮？

I think we're going to see higher inflection in the back half of the year. I think I spoke earlier just about we would see that steady cadence of pickup here. First quarter -- second quarter will be stronger than the first quarter. Third quarter will be stronger than the second quarter. But that year-over-year improvement really comes more in that Q3, Q4 time frame.

我認為我們將在今年下半年看到更高的拐點。我想我之前說過我們會在這裡看到穩定的提貨節奏。第一季度——第二季度將強於第一季度。第三季度將強於第二季度。但在第三季度和第四季度的時間框架內，同比改善確實更多。

Right. Okay. Maybe just one last quick one, if I could. You were also kind enough to kind of give expectations for pricing for the year on low teens. Any way we should think about volume contribution in '22 versus '21?

正確的。好的。如果可以的話，也許只是最後一個快速的。您也很友善地對低青少年的年度定價給出了期望。我們應該以什麼方式考慮 22 年與 21 年的銷量貢獻？

Well, we talked a little bit about just strong double digits was the guide that we gave, right? And so I gave you the pricing in the low teens. We talked about our growth being able to double up on the repair and remodel index and then backing out the infill from the prior year. Kind of gives you a good feel for how we're looking at growth.

好吧，我們談了一點關於强两位數是我們給出的指南，對吧？所以我給了你十幾歲的價格。我們談到我們的增長能夠使維修和改造指數翻倍，然後從前一年收回填充。讓您對我們如何看待增長有一個很好的了解。

So when you say strong double digits, I mean, that could be a wide range. Any way to narrow that down a little?

所以當你說强两位數時，我的意思是，這可能是一個很大的範圍。有什麼辦法可以縮小範圍嗎？

Yes. Our guidance is strong double digits. And I think I've just given you the pieces to it there. So...

是的。我們的指導是強勁的兩位數。而且我想我剛剛給了你它的碎片。所以...

The next question is from Matthew Bouley with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Matthew Bouley。

Can I just follow up with 1 more on that revenue outlook? I think, Dennis, you just mentioned backing out the onetime channel infill, which you said is $100 million. Are you talking about the strong double-digit growth is off of kind of last year's growth burden for the $100 million? Or how are we kind of layering that on?

我可以再跟進 1 個關於該收入前景的信息嗎？我想，丹尼斯，你剛剛提到退出一次性頻道填充，你說這是 1 億美元。您是在談論強勁的兩位數增長是否減輕了去年 1 億美元的增長負擔？或者我們如何將其分層？

It's year over year. We thought it was important to understand there was that inventory infill that we would normally see because inventories were depleted to a much larger level than they had been historically.

年復一年。我們認為重要的是要了解我們通常會看到的庫存填充情況，因為庫存消耗到比歷史上高得多的水平。

Okay. Understood. And then just high level on the -- back to the international opportunity because you keep highlighting this as a big opportunity over the years. Just curious if you can get any more specific on that. And just where are the markets where you see that opportunity? And how do you kind of go to market from a channel perspective there?

好的。明白了。然後只是高層 - 回到國際機會，因為你多年來一直強調這是一個巨大的機會。只是好奇您是否可以更具體地了解這一點。您看到機會的市場在哪裡？你如何從渠道的角度進入市場？

Yes. We tend to focus on the markets that generally have higher levels of GDP, increased family incomes and interest in outdoor living. So you're looking at the -- primarily Europe up in the Scandinavia out into the Australian markets.

是的。我們傾向於關注通常具有較高 GDP 水平、增加的家庭收入和對戶外生活興趣的市場。所以你正在尋找 - 主要是歐洲在斯堪的納維亞半島進入澳大利亞市場。

But we also service many smaller markets down into Central South America and the Caribbean as well. But when we talk about the larger markets and the higher GDP, that's going to be the primary focus where we will sell through similar channels to what we do here in North America.

但我們也為中南美洲和加勒比地區的許多較小市場提供服務。但是當我們談論更大的市場和更高的 GDP 時，這將是我們將通過與我們在北美所做的類似渠道進行銷售的主要焦點。

The next question is from Kurt Yinger with D.A. Davidson.

下一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Kurt Yinger。戴維森。

Great. Just wanted to go back to the high-level kind of decking conversion here in '22. It sounds like you're looking for 2 points or better again. I guess, first, what part of that dynamic over the last few years do you think has gotten sustainably stronger? And second, as you think about the levers that you have at your disposal, which drives conversion. Are there any areas where you think you can still push a lot harder than you have been?

偉大的。只想回到 22 年這裡的高級裝飾轉換。聽起來您又在尋找 2 點或更好的點數。我想，首先，您認為過去幾年這種動態的哪一部分已經持續增強？其次，當你考慮你所擁有的推動轉化的槓桿時。您認為在哪些方面您仍然可以比以往更加努力？

Well, I'll answer your first one -- your second one first here, I think from a marketing perspective because we haven't pushed as hard over the past couple of years. I think one of the things that will sustain as we move forward is a higher level of education of the consumer.

好吧，我會先回答你的第一個問題——你的第二個問題，我想從營銷的角度來看，因為在過去的幾年裡我們沒有那麼努力。我認為隨著我們的前進，將持續下去的事情之一是消費者接受更高水平的教育。

Through the pandemic, they were spending time at home, they were looking for products that would make it more comfortable and easy to maintain their home, more people have Trex composite decks today. There's more word of mouth. There's more media about composite today and the simplicity against wood. That is something that will continue to assist with the conversion.

在大流行期間，他們一直呆在家裡，他們在尋找能讓他們的家更舒適、更容易維護的產品，今天有更多的人擁有 Trex 複合材料甲板。口口相傳的就多了。今天有更多關於復合材料和相對於木材的簡單性的媒體。這將繼續幫助轉換。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then I guess just a follow-up on the commercial side. Given where your backlog are, is there any way to kind of size the magnitude of the decline there that you're expecting in '22?

知道了。好的。這很有幫助。然後我想只是商業方面的後續行動。鑑於您的積壓情況，是否有任何方法可以確定您在 22 年預期的下降幅度？

Yes, I'd expect '22 to be down about 10% on a year-over-year basis.

是的，我預計 22 年同比下降約 10%。

The next question is from Alex Rygiel with B. Riley.

下一個問題來自 Alex Rygiel 和 B. Riley。

Can you address the variables that may have the biggest impact on your incremental margin either coming in at the high end or the low end?

您能否解決可能對您的增量利潤率影響最大的變量，無論是在高端還是在低端？

Yes. When I think about that, right, I mean, clearly, pricing plays a role in this, followed secondarily by cost-outs and continuing to drive those efficiencies that we've talked about. I think on the negative side, clearly, inflation watching some of those headwinds that we've talked about, that's a key concern for us.

是的。當我想到這一點時，對，我的意思是，很明顯，定價在這方面發揮了作用，其次是成本支出，並繼續推動我們談到的那些效率。我認為從消極方面來看，很明顯，通貨膨脹正在關注我們已經談到的一些不利因素，這是我們的一個主要擔憂。

On the transportation side, natural gas, those are a couple of the big ones that we'll be continuing to watch. But also, I think in there, too, Bryan talked a little bit about the marketing spend that we had as well or that we're driving here in 2021. So that's another variable impacting those incremental margins.

在運輸方面，天然氣是我們將繼續關注的幾個重要領域。而且，我認為布萊恩也在那裡談到了我們在 2021 年的營銷支出，或者我們將在這裡推動的營銷支出。因此，這是影響這些增量利潤率的另一個變量。

And then as it relates to that range of 30% to 35%, is that what you would call sort of a 2022 target? Or is that sort of more of a longer-term target range for incremental margin?

然後，當它涉及到 30% 到 35% 的範圍時，這就是你所謂的 2022 年目標嗎？或者這更像是增量利潤率的長期目標範圍？

Right. So I would look at that 30% to 35% as a 2022 guide. And we talked about over time that we should see those incremental margins improve to that 35% to 40%. Why? So we're going to get more SG&A leverage over time because Enhance will become a bigger part of the overall portfolio requiring a lot less branding spend. In addition, we're going to continue to drive costs throughout our plant manufacturing network and that's going to continue to help us with the margin improvement.

正確的。所以我會把 30% 到 35% 作為 2022 年的指南。隨著時間的推移，我們談到我們應該看到這些增量利潤率提高到 35% 到 40%。為什麼？因此，隨著時間的推移，我們將獲得更多的 SG&A 槓桿，因為 Enhance 將成為整體投資組合中更大的一部分，需要更少的品牌支出。此外，我們將繼續降低整個工廠製造網絡的成本，這將繼續幫助我們提高利潤率。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Bryan Fairbanks for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給 Bryan Fairbanks 作閉幕詞。

Thanks, everybody, for your questions and attendance in today's conference call. We look forward to speaking with many of you during the quarter at conferences and other events. Have a great evening. Bye.

感謝大家提出問題並出席今天的電話會議。我們期待在本季度的會議和其他活動中與你們中的許多人交談。祝你有個愉快的夜晚。再見。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。