Tri Pointe Homes Inc (Delaware) (TPH) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to (inaudible) second quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, David Lee, General Counsel.

大家好，歡迎參加（聽不清楚）2025 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。現在我很高興向大家介紹主持人、總法律顧問 David Lee。

Thank you, sir. You may begin.

謝謝您，先生。你可以開始了。

Good morning, and welcome to Tri Pointe Homes' earnings conference call. Earlier this morning, the company released its financial results for the second quarter of 2025. Documents detailing these results, including a slide deck, are available at www.tripointehomes.com through the investors link and under the events and presentations tab.

早安，歡迎參加 Tri Pointe Homes 的收益電話會議。今天早些時候，該公司公佈了2025年第二季的財務業績。詳細介紹這些結果的文件（包括投影片）可透過 www.tripointehomes.com 上的投資者連結和事件與簡報標籤取得。

Before the call begins, I would like to remind everyone that certain statements made on this call, which are not historical facts, including statements concerning future financial and operating performance, are forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties.

在電話會議開始之前，我想提醒大家，本次電話會議中所做的某些陳述並非歷史事實，包括有關未來財務和經營績效的陳述，是涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述。

The discussion of risks and uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially are detailed in the company's SEC filings. Except as required by law, the company undertakes no duty to update these forward-looking statements.

有關風險、不確定性以及其他可能導致實際結果大不相同的因素的討論已在公司提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中進行了詳細說明。除法律要求外，本公司不承擔更新這些前瞻性聲明的義務。

Additionally, reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures discussed on this call to the most comparable GAAP measures can be accessed through Tri Pointe's website and in its SEC filings.

此外，本次電話會議上討論的非 GAAP 財務指標與最具可比性的 GAAP 指標的對帳表可透過 Tri Pointe 的網站及其提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 的文件查閱。

Hosting the call today are Doug Bauer, the company's Chief Executive Officer; Glenn Keeler, the company's Chief Financial Officer; Tom Mitchell, the company's President and Chief Operating Officer; and Linda Mamet, the company's Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer. With that, I will now turn the call over to Doug.

今天主持電話會議的有公司執行長 Doug Bauer、公司財務長 Glenn Keeler、公司總裁兼營運長湯姆米切爾 (Tom Mitchell) 和公司執行副總裁兼首席行銷長琳達馬梅特 (Linda Mamet)。說完這些，我現在將電話轉給 Doug。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us as we report our results for the second quarter of 2025. Our teams delivered good quarterly results while executing a challenging environment. We met both our top- and bottom-line guidance while continue to build a scalable foundation for long-term growth.

早安，感謝您參加我們 2025 年第二季的業績報告。我們的團隊在充滿挑戰的環境中取得了良好的季度表現。我們達到了頂線和底線預期，同時繼續為長期成長建立可擴展的基礎。

In the second quarter, we delivered 1,326 homes and the average sales price is $664,000, generating $880 million in home sales revenue.

第二季度，我們交付了 1,326 套房屋，平均銷售價格為 664,000 美元，創造了 8.8 億美元的房屋銷售收入。

Home building gross margin adjusted to exclude an inventory-related charge, was 22.1% supported by disciplined pricing, strong product positioning, and continued cost control. Adjusted net income of $69 million or $0.77 per diluted share. But the long-term outlook for housing remains favorable due to strong demographics and the continuing undersupply of homes. The near term remains choppy. Continued policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions have weighed on buyer confidence. And several markets are experiencing rising housing, inventory levels, and a softer pricing environment.

扣除庫存相關費用後，房屋建築毛利率經調整後為 22.1%，這得益於嚴格的定價、強大的產品定位和持續的成本控制。調整後淨收入為 6,900 萬美元，即每股收益 0.77 美元。但由於人口結構強勁以及住房供應持續不足，住房的長期前景依然看好。短期內市場仍動盪。持續的政策不確定性和地緣政治緊張局勢影響了買家信心。多個市場正經歷房價上漲、庫存水準上升以及價格環境疲軟的局面。

We generated 1,131 net new home orders in the quarter. With a monthly absorption rate of 2.5% per average selling community. We continue to focus on balancing pace and price on a community-by-community basis, and have moderated our start pace in an effort to normalize our level of spec inventory.

本季我們產生了 1,131 份淨新房訂單。每個銷售社區的每月吸收率為 2.5%。我們將繼續致力於平衡各個社區的速度和價格，並已調整了啟動速度，努力使我們的規格庫存水準正常化。

By leveraging targeted incentives for design studio options and mortgage rate buy downs, we are addressing monthly-payment sensitivity and buyer preferences for home personalization with the goal of optimizing margins. Our innovatively designed and well-located communities close to job centers and lifestyle amenities continue to attract a well-qualified buyer.

透過利用針對設計工作室選擇和抵押貸款利率降低的定向激勵措施，我們正在解決每月付款敏感度和買家對房屋個性化的偏好，以優化利潤率。我們的社區設計創新、位置優越，靠近就業中心和生活設施，繼續吸引高素質的買家。

Home buyers and backlog financing through our mortgage company, Tri Pointe Connect, have an average annual household income of 220,000, average FICO score of 753, 79% loan to value, and average debt to income ratio of 40%, consistent with the last several quarters.

透過我們的抵押貸款公司 Tri Pointe Connect 購屋者和積壓融資的平均家庭年收入為 220,000 美元，平均 FICO 分數為 753，貸款價值比為 79%，平均債務收入比為 40%，與過去幾個季度一致。

We ended the quarter with $1.4 billion in total liquidity, including $623 million in cash. Our home building debt to capital ratio was 21.7%. And net debt to net capital stood at 8%.

本季末，我們的總流動資金為 14 億美元，其中包括 6.23 億美元現金。我們的房屋建築負債資本比率為21.7％。淨債務與淨資本之比為8%。

During the quarter, we further strengthen our financial position by extending and upsizing our revolving credit facility, expanding liquidity through 2030.

在本季度，我們透過延長和增加循環信貸額度，將流動性擴大至 2030 年，進一步加強了我們的財務狀況。

Backed by a strong balance sheet, our land-investment strategy remains disciplined with the selective focus on opportunities that produce the strongest returns in our core markets.

在強勁資產負債表的支持下，我們的土地投資策略依然嚴謹，有選擇地關注那些在我們的核心市場產生最高回報的機會。

In the near term, we have an excellent land position that enables us to grow our ending community count in 2026 in the low-double digits. During the quarter, we returned an additional $100 million to shareholders through share repurchases.

短期內，我們擁有優越的土地位置，這使我們能夠在 2026 年實現社區數量的低兩位數增長。本季度，我們透過股票回購向股東額外返還了 1 億美元。

With our stock trading below book value, we accelerated repurchases, reducing our share count by 3.5% in the second quarter alone. For the year-to-date period ended June 30, we have repurchased $175 million, reducing our shares outstanding by $5.5 million or 5.3%. Since initiating the program in 2016, our share count has decreased by 46%. This reflects our confidence in the long-term value of the business and our commitment to enhancing per share returns for our shareholders.

由於我們的股票交易價格低於帳面價值，我們加快了回購速度，僅在第二季就將股票數量減少了 3.5%。截至 6 月 30 日的年初至今，我們已回購了 1.75 億美元，減少了 550 萬美元或 5.3% 的流通股。自 2016 年啟動該計劃以來，我們的股票數量減少了 46%。這反映了我們對業務長期價值的信心以及我們致力於提高股東每股回報的承諾。

In the last 12 months, our book value per share has grown 12.4%. Our new market expansions in Utah, Florida, and the Coastal Carolinas remain on track, and are expected to contribute to meaningful top- and bottom-line growth over time while broadening our geographic footprint. Development activity in these markets is progressing as planned, supported by strong local execution and scalable operating models.

在過去的 12 個月中，我們的每股帳面價值成長了 12.4%。我們在猶他州、佛羅裡達州和卡羅來納州沿海地區的新市場擴張仍在進行中，預計將隨著時間的推移為有意義的營收和利潤成長做出貢獻，同時擴大我們的地理覆蓋範圍。在強大的本地執行力和可擴展的營運模式的支持下，這些市場的開發活動正在按計劃進行。

We expect a notable inflection in the performance from our new divisions beginning in 2027. As volumes increase and operating leverage improves, supporting our long-term growth strategy. While near-term conditions remain challenging, we are executing through a differentiated premium product offering, targeted incentives, and continue to focus on cost, discipline and cycle time improvements.

我們預計從 2027 年開始，我們新部門的業績將出現顯著變化。隨著銷售增加和經營槓桿提高，支持我們的長期成長策略。儘管近期情況依然嚴峻，但我們正在透過提供差異化的優質產品和有針對性的激勵措施來執行，並繼續關注成本、紀律和週期時間的改進。

We remain confident in the long-term fundamentals underpinning housing demand, including favorable buyer demographics and the undersupply of housing over the last decade.

我們仍然對支撐住房需求的長期基本面充滿信心，包括有利的購屋者人口結構和過去十年的住房供應不足。

The current market dynamics present not only challenges, but also meaningful opportunities. Through disciplined capital allocation, including strategic land investments, prudent inventory management, and opportunistic share repurchases, we are positioning Tri Pointe for continued strong returns and long-term shareholder value creation.

當前的市場動態不僅帶來挑戰，也帶來重大機會。透過嚴格的資本配置，包括策略性土地投資、審慎的庫存管理和機會性的股票回購，我們使 Tri Pointe 能夠持續獲得強勁的回報並創造長期的股東價值。

With a healthy balance sheet, a seasoned team, and a differentiated brand, we are well positioned to navigate evolving market conditions and deliver sustained growth and performance.

憑藉健康的資產負債表、經驗豐富的團隊和差異化的品牌，我們完全有能力應對不斷變化的市場條件並實現持續的成長和績效。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Glenn. Glenn?

說完這些，我將把電話轉給格倫。格倫？

Thanks, Doug, and good morning. I'd like to highlight some of our results for the second quarter and then finish my remarks with our expectations and outlook for the third quarter and full year for 2025. The second quarter produced strong financial results for the company. We delivered 1,326 homes, which beat the high end of our guidance range. Home sales revenue was $880 million for the quarter, with an average sales price of $664,000. Our average sales price was lower than our previous guidance due to the mix of deliveries that were sold and closed in the quarter.

謝謝，道格，早安。我想重點介紹我們第二季的一些業績，然後以我們對 2025 年第三季和全年的預期和展望結束我的發言。第二季該公司取得了強勁的財務表現。我們交付了 1,326 套房屋，超出了我們預期的最高水準。本季房屋銷售收入為 8.8 億美元，平均銷售價格為 664,000 美元。由於本季銷售和完成的交付組合，我們的平均銷售價格低於先前的預期。

Gross margin adjusted to (inaudible) exclude an $11 million inventory impairment charge, was 22.1% for the quarter, in line with our guidance. SG&A expense as a percentage of home sales revenue was 12.6% and at the lower end of our guidance, benefiting from savings in G&A and better top line revenue leverage as a result of exceeding our delivery guidance.

調整後的毛利率（聽不清楚）不包括 1,100 萬美元的庫存減損費用，本季為 22.1%，符合我們的預期。銷售、一般及行政費用佔房屋銷售收入的百分比為 12.6%，處於我們預期的低端，受益於銷售、一般及行政費用的節省以及由於超出我們的交付預期而帶來的更好的頂線收入槓桿。

Finally, net income for the year was $69 million or $0.77 per diluted share, also adjusted for the same inventory-related charge.

最後，本年度淨收入為 6,900 萬美元，即每股 0.77 美元，也根據相同的庫存相關費用進行了調整。

Net new home orders in the second quarter were 1,131, with an absorption pace of 2.5 homes per community per month. For some market color, our absorption pace in the west was 2.5 for the quarter, with the Inland Empire, San Diego, and Seattle markets showing stronger demand. Softer markets in the west for the quarter were Sacramento and Arizona.

第二季淨新房訂單為 1,131 套，每個社區每月的吸收量為 2.5 套。就某些市場色彩而言，本季我們在西部的吸收速度為 2.5，其中內陸帝國、聖地牙哥和西雅圖市場表現出更強勁的需求。本季西部較疲軟的市場是薩克拉門托和亞利桑那州。

In the central region, the overall absorption pace was 2.3 for the quarter. With increased supply of both new and resale homes, Austin, Dallas, and Denver showed softer demand during the quarter, while Houston continued to experienced steady demand.

中部地區本季整體吸收速度為 2.3。隨著新房和轉售房供應量的增加，奧斯汀、達拉斯和丹佛在本季的需求有所疲軟，而休士頓的需求則持續保持穩定。

Finally, in the East, absorption pace was 3.1% for the quarter, with our DC Metro and Raleigh division showing strong demand, while Charlotte was consistent with the company average.

最後，在東部，本季的吸收速度為 3.1%，其中我們的華盛頓地鐵和羅利分部表現出強勁的需求，而夏洛特與公司平均水平一致。

During the second quarter, we invested approximately $250 million in land and land development. We ended the quarter with over 34,000 total lots, 51% of which are controlled via option.

第二季度，我們在土地和土地開發方面投資了約 2.5 億美元。本季結束時，我們的總手數超過 34,000 手，其中 51% 是透過選擇權控制的。

During the second quarter, we opened 11 new communities and closed out of 13, ending the quarter with 151 active selling communities, and we continue to anticipate ending 25 somewhere in the range of 150 to 160 active communities.

在第二季度，我們開設了 11 個新社區，關閉了 13 個，本季度結束時共有 151 個活躍銷售社區，並且我們預計在本季度結束時將有 25 個活躍社區關閉，數量在 150 到 160 個之間。

Looking at the balance sheet and capital spend, we ended the quarter with approximately $1.4 billion of liquidity, consisting of $623 million of cash and $786 million available under our unsecured revolving credit facility. As Doug mentioned during the quarter, we extended our revolving credit facility out to 2030 and increased the revolver size by $100 million to a total borrowing capacity of $850 million.

從資產負債表和資本支出來看，本季末我們的流動資金約為 14 億美元，其中包括 6.23 億美元現金和 7.86 億美元的無擔保循環信貸額度。正如道格在本季提到的那樣，我們將循環信貸額度延長至 2030 年，並將循環信貸額度增加 1 億美元，使總借貸能力達到 8.5 億美元。

At the end of the quarter, our home building debt to capital ratio was 21.7% and our home building net debt to net capital ratio was 8%.

截至本季末，我們的房屋建築負債與資本比率為 21.7%，房屋建築淨負債與淨資本比率為 8%。

Now I'd like to summarize our outlook for the third quarter and full-year of 2025. For the third quarter, we anticipate delivering between 1,000 and 1,000 homes, at an average sales price between 675,000 and 685,000. We expect home building gross margin percentage to be in the range of 20% to 21%. We expect our SG&A expense ratio to be in the range of 13% to 14%. And we estimate our effective tax rate for the third quarter would be approximately 27%.

現在我想總結一下我們對2025年第三季和全年的展望。第三季度，我們預計將交付 1,000 至 1,000 套房屋，平均售價在 675,000 至 685,000 之間。我們預計房屋建築毛利率將在 20% 至 21% 之間。我們預計銷售、一般及行政費用率將在 13% 至 14% 之間。我們預計第三季的有效稅率約為 27%。

For the full year, we are updating our guidance to a lower range of deliveries based on the slower market conditions we have experienced in the spring. We now anticipate delivering between 4,800 and 5,200 homes for the full year, with an average sales price between 665,000 and 675,000.

對於全年而言，基於春季經歷的市場放緩，我們將更新預期，將交付量範圍下調。我們現在預計全年將交付 4,800 至 5,200 套房屋，平均售價在 665,000 至 675,000 之間。

We continue to expect our full-year home binding gross margin to be in the range of 20.5% to 22%, which excludes the inventory-related charge we recorded this quarter.

我們繼續預計全年家居裝訂毛利率將在 20.5% 至 22% 之間，這不包括我們本季記錄的庫存相關費用。

Finally, we anticipate our SG&A expense ratio to be in the range of 12% to 13%, and we estimate our effective tax rate for the full year to be approximately 27%. With that, I will now turn the call back over to Doug for closing remarks.

最後，我們預計銷售、一般及行政費用率將在 12% 至 13% 之間，我們估計全年有效稅率約為 27%。說完這些，我現在將電話轉回給 Doug 做結束語。

Thanks, Glen. As we close, I want to express my sincere appreciation to the entire Tripointe team for your continued dedication, focus, and alignment with our mission and values. Their commitment is the cornerstone of our success and play a vital role in delivering another solid quarter. I'm also proud to note that Tri Pointe was once again named to the Fortune 100 best companies to work for in 2025, a reflection of the culture of excellence and collaboration we built together. Looking ahead, we remain confident in the long-term fundamentals of the housing industry, underpinned by favorable demographics and a persistent supply, demand, and balance.

謝謝，格倫。最後，我要向整個 Tripointe 團隊表達誠摯的感謝，感謝你們的持續奉獻、專注以及對我們使命和價值觀的認同。他們的承諾是我們成功的基石，在我們實現另一個穩健季度的過程中發揮著至關重要的作用。我還很自豪地指出，Tri Pointe 再次被評為 2025 年財富 100 強最適合工作的公司之一，這體現了我們共同建立的卓越與協作文化。展望未來，我們仍然對房地產行業的長期基本面充滿信心，這得益於有利的人口結構和持續的供需平衡。

With a clear strategy, a discipline operating model, and an exceptional team, we believe we are well positioned to navigate short-term headwinds and seize the opportunities that lie ahead.

憑藉著清晰的策略、嚴謹的營運模式和卓越的團隊，我們相信我們完全有能力應對短期逆風並抓住未來的機會。

Thank you again to our team members, customers, trade partners and shareholders for your continued trust and support.

再次感謝我們的團隊成員、客戶、貿易夥伴和股東的持續信任和支持。

With that, I'll turn the call over to the operator for any questions, operator?

這樣，我將把電話轉給接線員，如有任何問題，接線員？

(Operator Instructions) Trevor Allinson, Wolfe Research.

（操作員指示）Trevor Allinson，Wolfe Research。

Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I want to first ask about the implied 4Q volume guide based on your full-year numbers. I think if I'm doing the math correctly, it implies you're going to do 1,500 or 1,600 deliveries in the fourth quarter. It's in line with where your backlog sits currently. Can you talk about your confidence and hitting that number and did you increase your starts in the quarter to make sure that you had inventory in place to hit that number?

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。我想先詢問一下根據全年數據隱含的第四季銷售指南。我想，如果我的計算正確的話，這意味著你將在第四季度進行 1,500 或 1,600 次交付。這與您目前的積壓情況一致。您能談談您的信心和達到這個數字的信心嗎？您是否增加了本季的開工率，以確保您有足夠的庫存來達到這個數字？

Hey Trevor, it's Glenn. Good question. We're going into the third quarter with plenty of moving ready and spec homes to be able to hit that number. And like you said, the implied guidance is consistent with the absorption that we're having actually adjusted down a little bit for seasonality, so we definitely have the starts to hit that guide.

嘿，特雷弗，我是格倫。好問題。進入第三季度，我們將有大量可入住和待售的房屋，以便達到這一數字。正如您所說，隱含的指導與我們實際上根據季節性略微下調的吸收量一致，因此我們肯定已經開始達到該指導量。

Okay, got you. Makes sense. And then second one is just on incentives and your expectations for the rest of the year. I think, previously you talked about expecting roughly 7% incentives holder the remainder of the year. You've maintained your gross margin guidance here. Are you still thinking that roughly 7% incentives is where you're going to be at? We just heard a couple other builders talk about expectations for incentives to move higher, so hoping to get some color on your thoughts on that here moving forward.

好的，明白了。有道理。第二個是關於激勵措施和您對今年剩餘時間的期望。我認為，之前您談到預計今年剩餘時間內激勵持有者的比例約為 7%。您在此維持了毛利率指引。您是否仍認為大約 7% 的激勵就是您的目標？我們剛剛聽到其他幾位建築商談論了對提高建築價格激勵措施的期望，因此希望能了解你們對此的看法。

Yeah Trevor, it's Doug. Incentives on revenues were 7.1% in the second quarter. They'll trend up slightly as we factored those into the seasonality of the back half of the year, which is implied in our gross margin guide.

是的，特雷弗，我是道格。第二季的營收激勵率為7.1%。由於我們將其納入下半年的季節性因素中，因此它們將略有上升趨勢，這在我們的毛利率指南中有所暗示。

Okay. Thanks for all the color. I appreciate it. Good luck moving forward.

好的。感謝所有的色彩。我很感激。祝你未來一切順利。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Stephn Kim, Evercore ISI.

史蒂芬金 (Stephn Kim)，Evercore ISI。

Yeah, thanks a lot guys. Appreciate the color. I was curious if you could give a little bit of detail on the impairment charge of $13 million in the quarter, where was that? And also, I know that you guys, in addition to communities that you actually do impair, there's also communities that you subject to the impairment analysis if they're perhaps somewhat close. I was wondering if you give us some insight into what sort of that watch list, if you will, what that looks like?

是的，非常感謝大家。欣賞色彩。我很好奇，您能否詳細介紹本季 1300 萬美元的減損費用，它是在哪裡發生的？而且，我知道，除了你們確實會損害的社區之外，你們還會對一些距離較近的社區進行損害分析。我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹一下這個監視名單，它是什麼樣的？

Sure, Stephen, this is Glenn. The $11 million impairment in the quarter was a Bay Area project that's been a challenging project for some time. So based on the current market conditions, it just -- when you do that test, it failed the test and so we booked the impairment this quarter. So nothing surprising there. It's just a one-off project that was challenged. On the impairment process for us, so what we do is any project that has a margin starting to get around at 10% range kind of comes onto a watch list for us, and we watch those projects and then we run impairment analysis if there's indicators of impairment, which is required from the accounting standards. So that's how we do it. Once it gets to that 10% range, we start watching it from an accounting perspective now. We're always watching every project in the margin and trying to do the best we can to improve margins in our projects. But from a pure impairment accounting perspective, that's our process.

當然，史蒂芬，這是格倫。本季度 1100 萬美元的減值是來自灣區項目，該項目在一段時間內一直是一個具有挑戰性的項目。因此，根據當前的市場狀況，當你進行該測試時，它沒有通過，因此我們在本季度記錄了減值。所以這並不奇怪。這只是一個受到挑戰的一次性項目。對於我們的減損流程而言，我們所做的就是，任何利潤率開始達到 10% 左右的項目都會被列入我們的觀察名單，我們會觀察這些項目，如果有減損跡象，我們就會進行減損分析，這是會計準則所要求的。這就是我們的做法。一旦達到 10% 的範圍，我們現在就開始從會計角度關注它。我們始終關注每個專案的利潤，並盡最大努力提高專案的利潤率。但從純粹的減損會計角度來看，這就是我們的流程。

Yeah, I guess my question -- yeah, go ahead.

是的，我想我的問題是——是的，請繼續。

Sorry, I was just going to tag on to maybe hit the question. The list is not significant, and so we do have projects that are on that list and they have been on that list. But we seem to continue to implement strategies to have those projects have consistent absorptions and work through that without getting into that impairment zone.

抱歉，我只是想順便回答這個問題。該列表並不重要，因此我們確實有一些項目在該列表上，而且它們也一直在該列表上。但我們似乎繼續實施策略，讓這些項目具有一致的吸收能力，並努力實現這一目標，而不會進入損害區。

Would it be fair to say, Tom, that we have not seen in the last few months a significant increase in the number of communities that have made that watch list?

湯姆，這樣說公平嗎？我們在過去幾個月裡沒有看到列入觀察名單的社群數量顯著增加。

No. I think, obviously as absorption has slowed throughout the industry, it does put pressure on margins because of the increased incentives, but again, it's not to anywhere near an alarming rate.

不。我認為，顯然隨著整個行業的吸收速度放緩，由於激勵措施的增加，它確實給利潤率帶來了壓力，但同樣，它的速度還遠未達到令人擔憂的程度。

Okay, that's helpful. And then I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about absorptions, maybe as they trended through the quarter, on a monthly basis I think you had said three months ago that April had kind of gotten off to a little bit of a tougher start. Just curious how, in the end, that all wound up average out your [Q5] for the for the quarter.

好的，這很有幫助。然後我想知道您是否可以談談吸收量，也許是因為它們在整個季度呈趨勢，按月計算，我想您三個月前就說過，四月份的開局有點艱難。只是好奇，到最後，所有這些是如何平均得出本季的 [Q5] 的。

Yes, Steven, it's Doug. The quarter absorption started decent in April, peaked in May, and then trended down in the back half of June, which kind of follows some seasonal patterns. The early part of July is also very seasonal with the holidays and so forth. It's a choppy market to be honest with you, I've seen a lot worse conditions and these are all short-term conditions that shall change and shall move on when you look at the fundamentals of the business. But it's not it's not earth shattering at all.

是的，史蒂文，我是道格。本季的吸收量在四月開始表現不錯，在五月達到峰值，然後在六月下半月呈下降趨勢，這符合一些季節性模式。七月初也非常適合度假等。說實話，這是一個動盪的市場，我見過很多更糟糕的情況，這些都是短期情況，當你看業務基本面時，它們將會改變並繼續發展。但這並不是什麼驚天動地的事。

Yeah, I appreciate that. One last one if I could. Glenn, you gave a range for gross margin which I think is pretty consistent with what you've done before. It's a pretty wide range. And you haven't narrowed it here as you've progressed through the year. I was kind of curious. It seems, if my math is right, it could potentially imply a gross margin in 4Q as low as 17%. I know you're not guiding to that. But I was curious why didn't you tighten the range as you've progressed through the year and what kind of environment could actually drive a gross margin as low as 17% in the fourth quarter?

是的，我很感激。如果可以的話，我再說最後一個。格倫，你給出了毛利率的範圍，我認為這與你之前所做的非常一致。範圍相當廣泛。而隨著時間的流逝，您還沒有縮小這個範圍。我有點好奇。看來，如果我的計算正確的話，第四季的毛利率可能會低至 17%。我知道你不會引導我這麼做。但我很好奇，為什麼你們沒有在一年的時間裡縮小範圍，以及什麼樣的環境實際上可能導致第四季度的毛利率低至 17％？

Well, like Doug said, it's -- it still is a choppy environment. There's a lot of moving pieces still to go the rest of the year. There's not a lot of backlog going into the fourth quarter, and so there's still a lot of sales to make. And so that's why we kept that wider range.

嗯，就像道格所說的那樣，這仍然是一個不穩定的環境。今年剩餘時間仍有許多事情要做。第四季的積壓訂單不多，因此仍有大量銷售可做。這就是我們保持更廣泛範圍的原因。

Appreciate it. Thanks.

非常感謝。謝謝。

Thanks, Stephen.

謝謝，史蒂芬。

Alan Ratner, Zelman and Associates.

艾倫·拉特納 (Alan Ratner)、澤爾曼和合夥人公司。

Hey guys, good morning, thanks, as always for all the details so far. My question is more kind of strategic in terms of how you're thinking about pace and price now. If I look at your orders the last four quarters, they're down 25% year-over-year. And the group is down low-single digits for comparison. And I know, initially, you kind of flagged the price over pay strategy and certainly your margins reflected that but if I look at your guidance for the next couple of quarters, you know margins coming down quite a bit and reverting closer to where the peer group averages. So I'm curious that you know how you're thinking about that interplay today, and what do you attribute the you know the relative order weakness versus peers to? Because, it would seem like from a price point perspective, you guys are in the right part of the market. Geographically speaking, you're not big in Florida which is a big pain point for a lot of builders. So I'm just curious how you're thinking about that right now.

嘿，大家早上好，一如既往地感謝你們迄今為止提供的所有細節。我的問題更具策略性，即您現在如何考慮速度和價格。如果我查看過去四個季度的訂單，我會發現比去年同期下降了 25%。相比之下，該集團的銷售額僅下降了個位數。我知道，最初，您強調了價格高於支付策略，您的利潤率也反映了這一點，但如果我看一下您對未來幾季的指導，您會發現利潤率會下降很多，並回到更接近同行平均水平的水平。所以我很好奇，您今天是如何看待這種相互作用的，以及您認為與同行相比相對弱勢的原因是什麼？因為，從價格角度來看，你們似乎處於正確的市場位置。從地理位置來說，佛羅裡達州的規模並不大，這對許多建築商來說是一個很大的痛點。所以我只是好奇你現在是怎麼想的。

Yeah, Alan it's Doug. We're going to continue to favor price over pace. Demand is in my mind is fairly inelastic. And in the consumer confidence is really the driving force, as you know, and you see it all the time as all of us see. All these headlines that that the consumer continues to see, including just the disruption that we've seen, just with the administration with tariffs and everything. Just creates a lot of uncertainty. So we're going to continue to favor price over pace. When you run sensitivities, it's pretty clear that you run your business that way to increase and maintain margins and profitability and earnings per share.

是的，艾倫，我是道格。我們將繼續重視價格而不是速度。我認為需求是相當缺乏彈性的。如您所知，消費者信心確實是驅動力，我們所有人都一直可以看到這一點。消費者不斷看到的所有這些頭條新聞，包括我們所看到的混亂，以及政府的關稅和一切。只會產生很多不確定性。因此，我們將繼續重視價格而不是速度。當您計算敏感度時，很明顯您以這種方式經營業務是為了增加和維持利潤率、盈利能力和每股收益。

Allan, I think also the difference in in margin as you've highlighted really relates to some of those orders that were driven in 3 and 4Q last year that have closed early this year versus orders that were generated this year that just had higher incentive levels. So it's not necessarily a huge trend towards an increase as we go through the back half.

艾倫，我認為，正如您所強調的，利潤率的差異實際上與去年第三季度和第四季度產生的一些訂單有關，這些訂單今年早些時候已經完成，而今年產生的訂單則具有更高的激勵水平。因此，當我們進入後半段時，這並不一定是一個大幅成長的趨勢。

Got it. Okay, I appreciate that, Tom. And then, I guess, you kind of brought up the consumer uncertainty. I'm curious how you guys think about contingent sales given your exposure to the move a buyer. Have you see more concern among those buyers regarding their ability to sell or resell home and have you changed the way you're approaching that from either a marketing perspective or just a willingness to accept contingent sales?

知道了。好的，我很感激，湯姆。然後，我想，您提到了消費者的不確定性。我很好奇，考慮到你們對買家舉動的了解，你們對附帶銷售有何看法。您是否發現這些買家對於出售或轉售房屋的能力更加擔憂？您是否從行銷角度或僅僅願意接受附帶銷售的角度改變了處理此問題的方式？

Ellen, this is Linda. Good question. We do use contingencies as a strategic part of our sales program. We are very disciplined with our home to sell contingencies. Currently, approximately 5% of our backlog is a home-to-sell contingency. We do set limits at each community as appropriate on how many home-to-sell contingencies we would carry at any one time.

艾倫，這是琳達。好問題。我們確實將應急措施作為我們銷售計劃的策略部分。我們對房屋出售的意外事件非常嚴格。目前，我們大約有 5% 的積壓房屋是待售房屋。我們確實為每個社區設定了適當的限制，以限制我們一次可以負擔的待售房屋數量。

And because we do a lot of due diligence on each of the contingencies before we write the contract, our success rate is very strong. So we continue to see that as an important part of our sales program, but we're not overly reliant on it. And we do certainly in the move up space see customers who would like to sell their current home before buying ours. But they don't always have to sell their existing home. So sometimes that will get worked through in the process where they may end up carrying both homes for some period of time and still close on ours.

由於我們在簽訂合約之前對每種意外情況都做了大量的盡職調查，因此我們的成功率非常高。因此，我們繼續將其視為銷售計劃的重要組成部分，但我們並不過度依賴它。在升級領域，我們確實看到一些客戶想在購買我們的房子之前賣掉他們現在的房子。但他們並不總是需要出售現有房屋。因此，有時，在過程中，他們會解決這個問題，最終可能在一段時間內同時擁有兩套房子，但仍然接近我們的房子。

Got it. Appreciate that Linda, thanks a lot.

知道了。感謝琳達，非常感謝。

Thanks, Alan.

謝謝，艾倫。

Jay McCanless, Wedbush Securities.

麥坎利斯 (Jay McCanless)，韋德布希證券公司。

Hey, good morning, everyone. First question for me, I guess, what got you over the hump on closings for the quarter to beat the guidance? Was it one market in particular or just a couple extra closings in every division?

嘿，大家早安。我想問的第一個問題是，是什麼讓您克服了本季的困難，並實現了預期目標？是針對某個特定市場，還是每個部門都關閉幾家分店？

It was more broad-based, Jay. Like I said, I think the team did a good job of focusing on homes that were completed or soon to be completed, and was able to concentrate their sales efforts on those homes to generate more volume in the quarter.

它的基礎更為廣泛，傑伊。正如我所說的，我認為團隊很好地專注於已完工或即將完工的房屋，並且能夠將銷售精力集中在這些房屋上，以在本季度產生更多的銷售。

And then we've heard from some of your competitors, and I know you guys don't have a lot in the specific Bay Area. But some concern around demand in Northern California, tech job concerns, et cetera.

然後我們從你們的一些競爭對手那裡聽說了，我知道你們在特定的灣區沒有太多業務。但有些人擔心北加州的需求、技術工作等等。

Have you guys been hearing that from the field and maybe dive in a little bit also in Sacramento and fill us in on what's going on -- what's happening there?

你們有沒有從現場聽到這個消息？也許可以深入了解薩克拉門託的情況，告訴我們那裡發生了什麼事？

Hey Jay, this is Tom. I'll take that one. Yeah, Northern California has continued to soften, throughout the second quarter. But we have not heard of job loss being a factor in that softness. As Doug mentioned, the underlying confidence and chaos that the consumer is feeling is really what we think is the obstacle to absorption pace.

嘿，傑伊，我是湯姆。我要那個。是的，整個第二季北加州的經濟持續疲軟。但我們並未聽說失業是造成這種疲軟的因素。正如 Doug 所提到的，我們認為消費者所感受到的潛在的信心和混亂確實是吸收速度的障礙。

We are down in community count in in Northern California as well. So I think that accounts for some of the year-over year-variances in orders. But as you look at it, we're well positioned in in core markets, and we still think there's underlying demand in those markets for our product. And it's just a matter of that confidence factor coming back and we think we'll be in good shape.

我們在北加州的社區數量也有所下降。所以我認為這可以解釋訂單量同比出現的一些差異。但正如您所看到的，我們在核心市場中佔據有利地位，並且我們仍然認為這些市場對我們的產品有潛在需求。這只是信心因素恢復的問題，我們認為我們會處於良好狀態。

Jay, I’d add , Southern California, as long as we're talking about California, actually the IE San Diego is well above the company average. So every market across the country we've got several five or six markets that are well -- absorbing well above company average. So it's a very choppy market. It's nothing to get all lathered up on, it's actually as I mentioned to, I think it was Alan, I've seen a lot worse in my 35 years. So we're still seeing demand. And in Southern California, it's been, actually pretty good, out in the Inland Empire in San Diego.

傑伊，我想補充一下，南加州，只要我們談論的是加州，實際上聖地亞哥的 IE 遠高於公司平均水平。因此，在全國範圍內，我們都有五到六個市場，其吸收量遠高於公司平均值。所以這是一個非常不穩定的市場。這沒什麼好大驚小怪的，實際上就像我提到的那樣，我想是艾倫幹的，在我 35 年的人生中，我見過更糟糕的事情。所以我們仍然看到需求。在南加州，情況其實相當不錯，例如聖地牙哥的內陸帝國。

Sounds good, Doug. Thank you, that's all the questions I have. Thanks.

聽起來不錯，道格。謝謝，這就是我所有的問題。謝謝。

Thanks, Jay.

謝謝，傑伊。

Mike Dahl, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Mike Dahl。

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. As I just wanted to follow up on some of the questions around pace and how you're thinking about the back half. With the -- down to 2.5% a month, I think this historically has been or at least in recent years, kind of the lower bound that where you want to operate. So when you think about the back half of the year, obviously, normally, we get seasonal pressure. But are you reaching a level where you're thinking about trying to do more (inaudible) to hold that pace sequentially, and keep that 2.5%, or how should we think about that when you talk about that price versus pay balance what that threshold is for you?

嘿，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。我只是想跟進一些有關速度的問題以及您對後半部分的看法。隨著利率降至每月 2.5%，我認為從歷史上看，或至少在近年來，這是你想要達到的下限。因此，當你考慮下半年時，顯然，通常我們會面臨季節性壓力。但是，您是否已經達到了這樣的水平：您正在考慮嘗試做更多（聽不清）來保持這一速度，並保持 2.5% 的水平，或者當您談到價格與薪酬平衡時，我們應該如何考慮這個門檻？

Yeah. I mean, we factored in the fact that the back half of the year is definitely more seasonal you'll have some divisions or projects moving below 2.5%, but again, we're going to continue to focus on price over pace, overall.

是的。我的意思是，我們考慮到下半年肯定更具季節性，一些部門或專案的成長率會低於 2.5%，但總體而言，我們將繼續關注價格而不是速度。

I still think 2.5%-ish is probably a good number for the back half of the year, could trend down a little bit, it could trend up. It's -- as I mentioned earlier, it might, it's very inelastic. So there's not just throwing more money at things doesn't really do anything. And so we -- our projects are well located, Main and Main, there's no reason. To, give away the store, so to speak. We were just actually up in the state of Washington. We have a project up there that's selling for over $3 million. And it's like taking orders. So every market, every project is different.

我仍然認為 2.5% 左右對於今年下半年來說可能是一個不錯的數字，可能會略微下降，也可能會略微上升。正如我之前提到的，它可能非常缺乏彈性。因此，僅僅投入更多的錢實際上並沒有什麼作用。因此，我們的專案位置優越，主要地點均在主要地點，沒有理由。可以這麼說，把商店贈送出去。我們實際上剛剛到達華盛頓州。我們有一個項目，售價超過 300 萬美元。這就像接受命令一樣。所以每個市場、每個項目都是不同的。

Got it, yeah, I hear you. That makes sense. And then just shifting gears back to the margin question around the wide range and the implied outcomes for 4Q. I know you have the range out there, but Glenn, I mean, midpoint of that range is kind of 19-ish on 4Q. Is that really like based on what you're seeing today and the next you can see and specs that you can see it is that kind of should we be thinking about the midpoint or do you really want the whole range on the table at this point?

明白了，是的，我聽到了。這很有道理。然後將話題轉回有關第四季度廣泛範圍和隱含結果的利潤率問題。我知道你有一個範圍，但是格倫，我的意思是，這個範圍的中點在 4Q 上是 19 左右。這真的是基於您今天所看到的以及接下來所看到的和規格嗎？我們是否應該考慮中點，或者您真的希望此時將整個範圍都考慮在內？

No, I think the midpoint makes sense. That's kind of how we base our guidance is that midpoint, and that's what we see with the level of incentives that is currently flowing through, if we had to pick -- still, like I said, there's a lot of orders still to make to get there, but we're driving that guidance towards the midpoint.

不，我認為中點是有意義的。這就是我們制定指導意見的基礎，即中點，這也是我們看到的當前激勵水平，如果我們必須選擇的話——不過，就像我說的，要達到這個目標還有很多訂單要做，但我們正在推動指導意見向中點靠攏。

Alright. Thanks you.

好吧。感謝您。

Ken Zener, Seaport Research.

肯‧澤納（Ken Zener），海港研究。

Good morning, everybody.

大家早安。

Hey, Ken.

嘿，肯。

I have a slew of questions here, so I appreciate your patience. First, can you address the rising variable SG&A cost? And is that kind of the new baseline and what's driving that?

我這裡有很多問題，所以感謝您的耐心。首先，您能解決不斷上升的銷售、一般及行政費用變動問題嗎？這是新的基準嗎？是什麼在推動它？

It's really just --

這真的只是--

A higher percentage of sales.

更高的銷售比例。

Yeah, it's really just a function of lower volume, right? So it's just less leverage on our fixed cost. It's not like we're spending --

是的，這實際上只是較低音量的功能，對嗎？因此，我們的固定成本槓桿率較低。這並不是說我們花錢--

I'm referring to the variable piece.

我指的是變數部分。

Well, there's still some fixed costs even in the S component, right? Because you're spending advertising dollars on new communities and their salaries in the S component so it's not all variable in the S.

那麼，即使在 S 組件中仍然有一些固定成本，對嗎？因為你在 S 部分中向新社區和他們的薪水花費了廣告費，所以 S 中並不是所有變數。

Got it. Okay. And then I guess this, and the same question goes for the fixed piece. It's down, obviously, year-over-year. But how should we think about that corporate verse -- the number of communities you have.

知道了。好的。然後我猜這個，對於固定部分也有同樣的問題。顯然，與去年同期相比，這一數字有所下降。但是我們應該如何看待這個企業箴言——你所擁有的社區數量。

We're obviously watching spending, right? I mean? Obviously, the market's a little bit more challenged than it was last year. So spending is something that we're challenging and being really smart about. And so that's why you're seeing G&A down a little bit year over year. But it's something we're going to continue to monitor and make sure we're as efficient as possible.

我們顯然在關注支出，對嗎？我是說？顯然，今年的市場比去年面臨更多挑戰。因此，支出是我們正在挑戰的事情，而且我們對此非常明智。這就是為什麼你會看到 G&A 同比略有下降。但我們將繼續監控此事並確保盡可能有效率。

And then as it relates to, right, there's starts closings inventory. So you guys expect inventory levels to basically be down year-over-year similar to where we are in 2Q?

然後就其相關而言，就開始關閉庫存。所以你們預期庫存水準將年減，與第二季的水準類似？

Yes. Yeah. I think you're seeing a little bit slower in the land act than we were last year. And so that plays a part in it. And we're also working down, our spec levels. And so we're hoping to end the year with less specs than we do now. And so that that'll be a factor as well.

是的。是的。我認為土地法案的執行速度比去年慢了一點。這在其中發揮了一定作用。我們也正在努力降低我們的規格水平。因此，我們希望今年年底的規格比現在少。所以這也是一個因素。

And then Doug. This one is more for you or for Tom, I guess. But it's a big picture question. It's the main question I get from investors. So like your book values up 12%, you guys are still executing well, you do rest as a company in general, the industry is that way as well. But like you mentioned the word inelastic demand. So one could attribute that to consumer uncertainty, but there's also the fact that home price to income. It's very unaffordable given a lot of historical metrics. So if -- how is the industry going to kind of solve that if the companies are good, but the demand is just structurally lower because of affordability, therefore, the cyclicality of the industry is diminished? How do you think that's going to kind of, what are the puts and takes there for you? Because we could just say it's elastic, right, it's so unaffordable to people. How do you kind of see this playing out?

然後是道格。我想，這個更適合你或湯姆。但這是一個大問題。這是投資人向我提出的主要問題。因此，就像你們的帳面價值上漲了 12% 一樣，你們的業績仍然很好，作為一家公司，你們的業績總體上也很好，整個行業也是如此。但就像您提到的“無彈性需求”這個詞。因此，人們可以將其歸因於消費者的不確定性，但房價與收入的關係也是原因之一。從許多歷史指標來看，這是非常難以承受的。那麼，如果公司表現良好，但由於負擔能力的原因，需求在結構上較低，因此行業的周期性就會降低，那麼行業將如何解決這個問題？您認為這會是怎樣的情況？對您來說，這會帶來哪些好處？因為我們可以說它具有彈性，對人們來說太難承受了。您覺得這件事會如何發展？

Well, I think the inelastic demand right now is due to buyer confidence, Ken. And when you look at our buyer profile, having average household income of $220,000, they can afford all the house price that we provide in many cases. So -- but on a national basis, as I read the earnings calls and reports that are coming out, there's the entry-level side of the business, and they're having to give more and more incentives to move that product. So net, net pricing is coming down. And think, even John Burns indicated that in some of his analysis. So long term though, we think the fundamentals of the market are going to work quite well in the favor of the new home builders. And our current expansion strategies are well timed instead of making some sort of M&A announcement we are expanding organically. So we're still -- and Tom and I are very bullish about the future of these short term conditions and you can analyze it and look at all the headlines and get all wrapped up in the short term. We look long term. We have a great land inventory, great community count that'll grow low-double digits next year. So we're well positioned for, a housing industry that will continue to thrive as we look at it over the next three to five years.

嗯，我認為目前缺乏彈性的需求是由於買家信心，肯。如果你查看我們的買家資料，你會發現他們的平均家庭收入為 22 萬美元，在很多情況下，他們能夠負擔得起我們提供的所有房價。所以——但從全國範圍來看，當我閱讀即將發布的收益電話會議和報告時，我發現業務處於入門級階段，他們必須提供越來越多的激勵措施來銷售該產品。因此淨價格正在下降。想想看，就連約翰·伯恩斯也在他的某些分析中指出了這一點。因此，從長期來看，我們認為市場基本面將對新房建築商有利。我們目前的擴張策略時機恰當，我們不是宣布某種併購，而是進行有機擴張。因此，我們仍然——湯姆和我對這些短期狀況的未來非常樂觀，你可以分析它，看看所有的頭條新聞，並在短期內涵蓋所有這些。我們著眼於長遠。我們擁有大量的土地儲備和大量的社區數量，明年這些數量將實現兩位數的低點增長。因此，我們已做好準備，從未來三到五年來看，房地產行業將繼續蓬勃發展。

And if I could get one more in, I realize it's --

如果我能再多拿一個，我意識到這是--

Yeah That's -- one more question Ken, and we got to wrap it up.

是的，這是──肯，還有一個問題，我們必須結束這個問題。

That's right. I'll catch you. I'll do it later. Thank you.

這是正確的。我會抓住你的。我稍後會做。謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Alex Barron, Housing Research Center.

住房研究中心的亞歷克斯·巴倫。

Good morning, everybody. Just wanted to ask what's your current build time on average, and is there any opportunity to keep improving it? And was there any improvement versus a quarter ago or a year ago?

大家早安。只是想問一下您目前的平均建置時間是多少，是否有機會繼續改進它？與上個季度或一年前相比，有什麼改善嗎？

Hi Alex, this is Tom. Good question. It's certainly a focus area for us as we're looking at all areas to reduce costs and improve on cycle time. But our current average build time is 115 working days. So just about 5.5 months, almost 6 months on that.

你好，亞歷克斯，我是湯姆。好問題。這無疑是我們關注的重點領域，因為我們正在尋找所有能夠降低成本和縮短週期的領域。但我們目前的平均建造時間為 115 個工作天。所以大約 5.5 個月，差不多 6 個月。

We're meeting our schedules, we're maybe a little bit ahead of schedule. So we're in the process of doing some new initiatives around reducing cycle times. It's time to do that. We're implementing some new templates and schedules, and we'll be looking to improve on those numbers.

我們正在按照計劃進行，甚至可能比計劃提前了一點。因此，我們正在採取一些新措施來縮短週期時間。是時候這麼做了。我們正在實施一些新的模板和時間表，並希望改善這些數字。

All right guys. Best of luck for this year. Thank.

好的，夥計們。祝你今年好運。感謝。

You. Thanks Alex.

你。謝謝亞歷克斯。

There are no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the floor back over to Doug Bauer for closing comments.

目前沒有其他問題。現在我想把發言權交還給道格·鮑爾，請他發表最後評論。

Well thank you everybody for joining us on today's call, and we look forward to chatting with you all in October have a great summer thank you.

好吧，感謝大家參加今天的電話會議，我們期待十月份與大家聊天，祝大家度過一個愉快的夏天，謝謝。

This includes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

其中包括今天的電話會議。現在您可以斷開線路。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。