Tri Pointe Homes Inc (Delaware) (TPH) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings and welcome to Tri Pointe's fourth-quarter 2023 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce David Lee, Investor Relations for Tri Pointe Homes. Thank you. You may begin.

歡迎參加 Tri Pointe 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我很高興向您介紹 Tri Pointe Homes 投資者關係部的 David Lee。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Good morning ,and welcome to Tri Pointe Homes' earnings conference call. Earlier this morning, the company released its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2023. Documents detailing these results, including a slide deck, are available at www.TriPointeHomes.com through the Investors link and under the Events and Presentations tab.

早安，歡迎參加 Tri Pointe Homes 的財報電話會議。今天早些時候，該公司發布了 2023 年第四季的財務業績。詳細介紹這些結果的文件（包括投影片）可透過 www.TriPointeHomes.com 上的「投資者」連結以及「活動和簡報」標籤下取得。

Before the call begins, I would like to remind everyone that certain statements made on this call which are not historical facts, including statements concerning future financial and operating performance, are forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. A discussion of risks and uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially are detailed in the company's SEC filings. Except as required by law, the company undertakes no duty to update these forward-looking statements.

在電話會議開始之前，我想提醒大家，本次電話會議中所做的某些非歷史事實的陳述，包括有關未來財務和經營業績的陳述，都是涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述。該公司向 SEC 提交的文件中詳細討論了風險和不確定性以及可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的其他因素。除法律要求外，本公司不承擔更新這些前瞻性聲明的義務。

Additionally, reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures discussed on this call to the most comparable GAAP measures can be accessed through Tri Pointe's website and in its SEC filings.

此外，本次電話會議中討論的非 GAAP 財務指標與最具可比性的 GAAP 指標的調整表可透過 Tri Pointe 的網站及其向 SEC 提交的文件進行查看。

Hosting the call today are Doug Bauer, the company's Chief Executive Officer; Glenn Keeler, the Company's Chief Financial Officer; Tom Mitchell, the company's Chief Operating Officer and President, and Linda Mamet, the company's Chief Marketing Officer.

今天主持電話會議的是該公司執行長 Doug Bauer； Glenn Keeler，公司財務長； Tom Mitchell，公司營運長兼總裁，Linda Mamet，公司行銷長。

With that, I will now turn the call over to Doug.

現在，我將把電話轉給道格。

Thank you, David, and good morning to everyone on today's call. During the call, we will review operating results for the fourth quarter and the full year, provide a market update, and discuss key operating objectives. In addition, we will provide our first-quarter and full-year outlook for 2024.

謝謝大衛，今天電話會議的大家早安。在電話會議期間，我們將回顧第四季和全年的營運業績，提供市場最新情況，並討論關鍵營運目標。此外，我們還將提供 2024 年第一季和全年的展望。

2023 proved to be another strong year for Tri Pointe Homes, capped off by a successful fourth quarter. We reached or exceeded the high end of all of our key operating metrics for the quarter, closing out the year with strong momentum. During the quarter, we delivered 1,813 homes at an average sales price of $685,000, leading to home sales revenue of $1.2 billion and diluted earnings per share of $1.36. Our gross margin for the quarter was 22.9%, and our SG&A expense as a percentage of homebuilding revenue was 9.3%.

事實證明，2023 年對 Tri Pointe Homes 來說又是強勁的一年，第四季取得了成功。我們達到或超過了本季所有關鍵營運指標的高端，以強勁的勢頭結束了這一年。本季度，我們交付了 1,813 套房屋，平均售價為 685,000 美元，房屋銷售收入為 12 億美元，攤薄後每股收益為 1.36 美元。我們本季的毛利率為 22.9%，SG&A 費用佔住宅建築收入的百分比為 9.3%。

We also repurchased approximately 1.8 million shares of our common stock during the fourth quarter at an average price of $27.23 for an aggregate dollar amount of $50 million. Despite the macro headwinds of inflation and volatile interest rate swings, 2023 was a strong year for our company, positioning us for further success in 2024.

我們還在第四季以平均價格 27.23 美元回購了約 180 萬股普通股，總金額為 5,000 萬美元。儘管面臨通膨和利率波動等宏觀阻力，2023 年對我們公司來說仍是強勁的一年，這為我們在 2024 年取得進一步成功奠定了基礎。

For the full-year 2023, we delivered 5,274 homes at an average sales price of $693,000, leading the home sales revenue of $3.7 billion. Our homebuilding gross margin was 22.3%, and diluted earnings per share was $3.45. We ended the year with a book value per share of $31.52, a 12% year-over-year increase.

2023 年全年，我們交付了 5,274 套房屋，平均售價為 693,000 美元，領先房屋銷售收入 37 億美元。我們的住宅建築毛利率為 22.3%，稀釋後每股收益為 3.45 美元。截至年底，我們的每股帳面價值為 31.52 美元，年增 12%。

Fueled by a 40% rise in net new home orders in 2023, we increased our opening backlog units by 58% heading into 2024. In the fourth quarter from '23, there was a significant shift in mortgage interest rates. Initially peaking at cycle highs in October, rates subsequently declined as market sentiment shifted.

在 2023 年新房淨訂單增加 40% 的推動下，我們的未交付訂單數量在 2024 年增加了 58%。23 年第四季度，抵押貸款利率發生了重大變化。利率最初在 10 月達到週期高點，隨後隨著市場情緒的轉變而下降。

As rates began descending in November, home-buying activity increased, with December ultimately exhibiting the strongest orders in the quarter. That end-of-year momentum has been sustained through January and into February, and we would characterize the overall demand environment as strong, demonstrated by our January absorption rate of 3.5%.

隨著 11 月利率開始下降，購屋活動增加，最終 12 月出現了本季最強勁的訂單。年末的動能持續到 1 月和 2 月，我們認為整體需求環境強勁，1 月吸收率 3.5% 就證明了這一點。

In addition, we opened 70 communities in 2023, ending the year with 155 active selling communities, representing a 14% increase compared to the prior year. We anticipated our higher community count, coupled with the ongoing strong demand, will help us achieve our projected 17% year-over-year increase in deliveries in 2024. Glenn will provide more color on our guidance during his remarks.

此外，我們在 2023 年開設了 70 個社區，年末活躍銷售社區達到 155 個，較前一年成長 14%。我們預計，社區數量的增加以及持續強勁的需求將幫助我們實現 2024 年交付量將年增 17% 的目標。格倫將在演講中對我們的指導提供更多資訊。

We remain encouraged about the fundamentals of our business, including household formations, strong demand from millennials and Gen Z buyers, a more normalized supply chain, and shorter cycle times. While each of these factors contribute to the long-term health of our industry, we are particularly optimistic about the ongoing favorable supply-and-demand dynamics that structurally support new home demand. In addition, the resale market remains locked in as many existing homeowners are holding mortgages far lower than current market rates. These dynamics should continue to support the homebuilding industry with new home market share of total home sales at historical highs.

我們對業務的基本面仍然感到鼓舞，包括家庭組建、千禧世代和 Z 世代買家的強勁需求、更規範化的供應鏈以及更短的週期時間。雖然這些因素都有助於我們行業的長期健康發展，但我們對持續有利的供需動態尤其樂觀，這種動態在結構上支持新房需求。此外，轉售市場仍然鎖定，因為許多現有房主持有的抵押貸款遠低於當前市場利率。這些動態應會繼續支持住宅建築業，使新房市場份額佔房屋銷售總額達到歷史高點。

The strength of our balance sheet continues to be a priority. We ended 2023 with $1.6 billion in liquidity and a net debt to net capital ratio of 14.6%. We generated $195 million of cash flow from operations during 2023 and remain committed to producing positive cash flow in the future as we balance our growth initiatives while reducing debt and remaining active in our share repurchase program. With $869 million of cash on hand at year end, we currently plan to pay off the $450 million of senior notes that are due in June. By deleveraging, we expect to save $26 million annually in interest costs and reduce our debt to capital ratio by approximately 30%.

我們的資產負債表實力仍是首要任務。截至 2023 年，我們的流動性為 16 億美元，淨負債與淨資本比率為 14.6%。2023 年，我們從營運中產生了 1.95 億美元的現金流，並繼續致力於在未來產生正現金流，因為我們在減少債務和積極參與股票回購計畫的同時平衡了成長計畫。截至年底，我們手頭上有 8.69 億美元現金，目前計劃償還 6 月到期的 4.5 億美元優先票據。透過去槓桿化，我們預計每年可節省 2,600 萬美元的利息成本，並將債務資本比率降低約 30%。

In December, we announced that our Board of Directors approved a new $250 million share repurchase authorization, demonstrating our commitment to returning excess capital to shareholders. For the full year of 2023, we repurchased 6.3 million shares at an average price of $27.68, representing a total spend of $174 million. Share repurchases have been a key component of our capital plan over the past several years.

12 月，我們宣布董事會批准了一項新的 2.5 億美元股票回購授權，這表明了我們向股東返還多餘資本的承諾。2023 年全年，我們以 27.68 美元的平均價格回購了 630 萬股股票，總支出為 1.74 億美元。過去幾年，股票回購一直是我們資本計畫的重要組成部分。

Slide 19 of our slide deck highlights the impact of our share repurchase program since its inception. From the end of 2015, we have reduced shares outstanding by 41% and grown our book value per share by 200%. That equates to a 15% compounded annual growth rate in our book value per share. Our goal is to continue to increase book value per share by 10% to 15% annually through a combination of share repurchases and consistently generating strong earnings.

我們投影片的第 19 張投影片強調了我們的股票回購計畫自啟動以來的影響。自 2015 年底以來，我們已將流通股減少了 41%，每股帳面價值增加了 200%。這相當於我們每股帳面價值的複合年增長率為 15%。我們的目標是透過股票回購和持續產生強勁收益的結合，繼續將每股帳面價值每年增加 10% 至 15%。

As a growth-oriented company, we are focused on growing scale in our existing markets and targeting new markets through organic startups or M&A. In our existing markets, our West region is close to targeted scale, thus generating strong margins and cash flow. Over the past few years, we have been investing heavily in our Central and East regions to grow community count, and we are seeing the benefit from that investment.

作為一家以成長為導向的公司，我們專注於擴大現有市場的規模，並透過有機新創公司或併購瞄準新市場。在我們現有的市場中，我們的西部地區已接近目標規模，從而產生了強勁的利潤和現金流。在過去的幾年裡，我們一直在中部和東部地區大力投資以增加社區數量，我們已經看到了這項投資的好處。

Over the next two years, we expect delivery volumes in Texas to grow over 60% compared to 2023. In the Carolinas, we anticipate delivery volume of over 30% in that same period. Not only will this provide for a strong top-line growth but increased profitability as our Texas and Carolina divisions are currently producing homebuilding gross margins at or above the company average.

未來兩年，我們預計德州的交付量將比 2023 年增加 60% 以上。在卡羅來納州，我們預計同期交貨量將超過 30%。這不僅會帶來強勁的營收成長，而且會提高獲利能力，因為我們德州和卡羅萊納州分部目前的住宅建築毛利率等於或高於公司平均水平。

For new market expansions, we recently announced our organic entry into Utah, and we are already seeing positive momentum on the land front. We anticipate first deliveries from Utah starting in 2025. We are also actively looking for growth in the Southeast by expanding our footprint into the Coastal Carolinas and Florida markets.

對於新的市場擴張，我們最近宣布有機進入猶他州，並且我們已經在陸地方面看到了積極的勢頭。我們預計將於 2025 年開始從猶他州開始交付。我們也透過將足跡擴展到卡羅萊納州沿海和佛羅裡達州市場，積極尋求東南部的成長。

Another initiative that will be accretive to our long-term growth goals is with our mortgage company, Tri Pointe Connect. Effective February 1, 2024, Tri Pointe Connect became a wholly owned subsidiary of Tri Pointe Homes as we exercised the right to purchase their minority stake in our joint venture with loanDepot. This alignment of mortgage operations with our core homebuilding business offers more flexibility in terms of the customer experience and competitive pricing and will provide increased earnings from our financial services business.

另一項將有助於我們實現長期成長目標的舉措是與我們的抵押貸款公司 Tri Pointe Connect 合作。自 2024 年 2 月 1 日起，Tri Pointe Connect 成為 Tri Pointe Homes 的全資子公司，因為我們行使了購買 Tri Pointe Homes 在我們與 LoanDepot 合資企業中的少數股權的權利。抵押貸款業務與我們的核心住宅建築業務的結合在客戶體驗和有競爭力的定價方面提供了更大的靈活性，並將增加我們金融服務業務的收入。

Tri Pointe Connect is an integral part of our business with strong customer satisfaction and mortgage capture rate. We continue to see strength and quality in our homebuyers in backlog financing with Tri Pointe Connect with an average annual household income of $198,000, an average FICO score of 753, 80% loan to value, and a 40% debt to income ratio.

Tri Pointe Connect 是我們業務不可或缺的一部分，具有強大的客戶滿意度和抵押貸款捕獲率。我們繼續看到我們的購屋者透過 Tri Pointe Connect 積壓融資的實力和質量，平均家庭年收入為 198,000 美元，平均 FICO 評分為 753，貸款價值比為 80%，債務與收入比為 40%。

In summary, the prevailing positive macroeconomic conditions and strong housing fundamentals make us optimistic for 2024 and beyond. Given this environment, Tri Pointe is in an excellent position to expand our scale in each of our markets, particularly considering our well-positioned land holdings and our experienced team members. We are actively taking the necessary steps to capitalize on numerous growth opportunities that exist in the market today and are committed to deploying our capital into accretive long-term growth initiatives.

總之，當前積極的宏觀經濟狀況和強勁的住房基本面使我們對 2024 年及以後持樂觀態度。在這種環境下，Tri Pointe 處於擴大我們在每個市場規模的絕佳位置，特別是考慮到我們有利的土地持有量和經驗豐富的團隊成員。我們正在積極採取必要措施，利用當今市場上存在的眾多成長機會，並致力於將我們的資本部署到增值的長期成長計畫中。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Glenn. Glenn?

這樣，我就把電話轉給格倫。格倫？

Thanks, Doug, and good morning. I'm going to highlight some of our results and key financial metrics for the fourth quarter and then finish my remarks with our expectations and outlook for the first quarter and full year for 2024. At times, I'll be referring to certain information from our slide deck, which is posted on our website.

謝謝，道格，早安。我將重點介紹我們第四季度的一些業績和關鍵財務指標，然後以我們對 2024 年第一季和全年的預期和展望來結束我的演講。有時，我會引用我們網站上發布的幻燈片中的某些資訊。

Slide 6 of the earnings call deck provides some of the financial and operational highlights from our fourth quarter. We generated 1,078 net new home orders in the fourth quarter, which was 143% increase compared to the prior year. Our absorption pace was 2.3 homes per community per month, a 109% increase compared to the prior year.

收益電話會議的幻燈片 6 提供了我們第四季度的一些財務和營運亮點。第四季我們產生了 1,078 份淨新房訂單，比去年同期成長 143%。我們的吸收速度為每個社區每月 2.3 個家庭，與前一年相比增加了 109%。

As Doug mentioned, December was the strongest month in the fourth quarter for order activity, and that momentum has carried over with a strong start in 2024. We recorded 536 net new home orders in January, which was a 27% increase year over year on a sales pace of 3.5 homes per community per month. Demand in January was broad based across both our markets and buyer segments, and February is off to a similarly strong start.

正如 Doug 所提到的，12 月是第四季訂單活動最強勁的月份，這種勢頭在 2024 年強勁開局中得以延續。1 月份，我們錄得 536 套新房淨訂單，年增 27%，每個社區每月銷售 3.5 套房屋。一月份的需求在我們的市場和買家群體中都有廣泛的基礎，二月的開局也同樣強勁。

We took a disciplined approach with our use of incentives in the fourth quarter, largely targeting incentives towards completed or move-in ready homes. Permanent-rate buy-downs remain a popular use of incentives for our homebuyers. Full incentives on orders in the fourth quarter were 4.8% of revenue and have trended down to 4.4% in January. For context, our historical incentive levels as a company have been in the range of 3% to 4%.

我們在第四季採取了嚴格的激勵措施，主要針對已完工或入住的現房進行激勵。永久利率購買仍然是購屋者常用的激勵措施。第四季訂單全額獎勵佔營收的 4.8%，1 月已下降至 4.4%。就背景而言，我們作為一家公司的歷史激勵水準一直在 3% 到 4% 的範圍內。

We ended the year with 155 active selling communities, which was a 14% increase over the prior year. We plan to open approximately 65 new communities in 2024 and expect to close a similar number during the year. Our new community openings are weighted more heavily to the first half of the year, so we expect to see a higher community count in the first and second quarter before leveling off in the back half of the year. Based on our strong land pipeline with approximately 32,000 owned or controlled lots, we expect to grow our 2025 ending community count by approximately 10%.

截至年底，我們有 155 個活躍銷售社區，比前一年增加了 14%。我們計劃在 2024 年開設約 65 個新社區，並預計年內關閉類似數量的社區。我們的新社區開放量在今年上半年的比重更大，因此我們預計第一季和第二季的社區數量將會增加，然後在下半年趨於平穩。基於我們擁有約 32,000 個自有或控制地塊的強大土地儲備，我們預計到 2025 年末社區數量將增加約 10%。

Looking at the balance sheet and capital spend, we ended the quarter with approximately $1.6 billion of liquidity, consisting of $869 million of cash on hand and $698 million available under our unsecured revolving credit facility. Our debt to capital ratio was 31.5% and net debt to net capital ratio was 14.6%. We continue to be active in our share repurchase program, repurchasing 1.8 million shares during the quarter for a total aggregate dollar spend of $50 million.

從資產負債表和資本支出來看，本季末我們的流動資金約為 16 億美元，其中包括 8.69 億美元的庫存現金和 6.98 億美元的無擔保循環信貸額度。我們的負債與資本比率為31.5%，淨負債與淨資本比率為14.6%。我們繼續積極實施股票回購計劃，本季回購了 180 萬股股票，總支出達 5,000 萬美元。

For the fourth quarter, we invested approximately $275 million in land and land development. Going forward, we expect to spend approximately $1.2 billion to $1.5 billion annually on land and land development to support our growth targets.

第四季度，我們在土地和土地開發方面投資了約 2.75 億美元。展望未來，我們預計每年在土地和土地開發上花費約 12 億至 15 億美元，以支持我們的成長目標。

I'd like to summarize our outlook for the first quarter and full year for 2024. For the first quarter, we anticipate delivering between 1,200 and 1,400 homes at an average sales price between $645,000 and $655,000. We expect homebuilding gross margin percentage to be in the range of 22% to 23% and anticipate our SG&A expense ratio to be in the range of 12% to 13%. Lastly, we estimate our effective tax rate for the first quarter to be approximately 26.5%.

我想總結一下我們對 2024 年第一季和全年的展望。我們預計第一季將交付 1,200 至 1,400 套房屋，平均售價在 645,000 美元至 655,000 美元之間。我們預計住宅建築毛利率將在 22% 至 23% 之間，SG&A 費用率將在 12% 至 13% 之間。最後，我們估計第一季的有效稅率約為 26.5%。

For the full year, we anticipate delivering between 6,000 and 6,300 homes, which would be a 17% increase year over year using the midpoint of our guidance. We anticipate our average sales price on those deliveries to be between $645,000 and $655,000. We expect homebuilding gross margin percentage to be in the range of 21.5% to 22.5% and anticipate our SG&A expense ratio to be in the range of 10.5% to 11.5%. Roughly, we estimate our effective tax rate for the year to be approximately 26.5%.

我們預計全年交付 6,000 至 6,300 套房屋，按照我們指導的中位數計算，這將年增 17%。我們預計這些交付的平均售價將在 645,000 美元至 655,000 美元之間。我們預計住宅建築毛利率將在 21.5% 至 22.5% 之間，SG&A 費用率將在 10.5% 至 11.5% 之間。粗略估計，我們今年的有效稅率約為 26.5%。

With that, I will turn the call back over to Doug for closing remarks.

至此，我將把電話轉回給道格，讓他發表結束語。

Thanks, Glenn. In summary, our industry remains positioned for long-term success due to the continued supply shortage and strong consumer demand we discussed earlier. At Tri Pointe, we are focused on steady growth to both the top and bottom lines while efficiently allocating our cash to support our growth initiatives and share buybacks.

謝謝，格倫。總而言之，由於我們先前討論的持續供應短缺和強勁的消費者需求，我們的產業仍有望長期成功。在 Tri Pointe，我們專注於營收和利潤的穩定成長，同時有效地分配現金以支持我們的成長計劃和股票回購。

We expect this focus will continue to benefit our shareholders by increasing book value per share year over year. With a strong balance sheet composed of a land portfolio focused on core locations and ample liquidity, we are well positioned to meet our objectives going forward.

我們預計這一重點將透過逐年增加每股帳面價值繼續使我們的股東受益。憑藉由專注於核心地點的土地投資組合和充足的流動性組成的強大資產負債表，我們有能力實現我們的未來目標。

Finally, I want to express our gratitude to the entire Tri Pointe team for their hard work and dedication. I'm especially proud that their steadfast commitment to operational excellence led to Tri Pointe being named to the 2024 list of Fortune's World's Most Admired Companies. This is especially gratifying as those on the list are ranked and chosen by industry peers for their financial soundness, long-term investment value, innovation, ability to attract and retain top talent among many factors. We couldn't be more prouder of this team and what their talent and dedication promises for the future of our company.

最後，我要對整個 Tri Pointe 團隊的辛勤工作和奉獻精神表示感謝。我特別感到自豪的是，他們對卓越營運的堅定承諾使 Tri Pointe 入選《財星》2024 年全球最受尊敬公司名單。這尤其令人欣慰，因為上榜企業是由業內同行根據其財務穩健性、長期投資價值、創新、吸引和留住頂尖人才的能力等眾多因素進行排名和選擇的。我們為這個團隊以及他們的才華和奉獻精神為我們公司的未來所做的承諾感到無比自豪。

Now I'd like to turn it back -- turn the call back over to the operator for any questions.

現在我想將其轉回 - 如果有任何問題，請將電話轉回給接線員。

(Operator Instructions) Joe Ahlersmeyer, Deutsche Bank.

（操作員指令）Joe Ahlersmeyer，德意志銀行。

Hey, good morning, everybody. How are you doing?

嘿，大家早安。你好嗎？

Very good.

非常好。

The comments on the land spend, if you don't mind maybe just going into a little more detail about where that's going to be deployed, maybe from a buyer standpoint -- buyer level standpoint and geographically just a little more detail on that?

關於土地支出的評論，如果你不介意的話，也許只是更詳細地了解將要部署的地方，也許從買家的角度——買家層面的角度，以及地理上的更多細節？

Hey, Joe. It's going to be more concentrated to the Central and the East, like we talked about, but there still -- and we still need to resupply the community count in the West as well. So it's fairly spread across our communities, and it's about half land ac and half development. It's that kind of spend going forward.

嘿，喬。正如我們所說，它將更加集中在中部和東部，但仍然存在 - 我們仍然需要重新供應西部的社區數量。因此，它在我們的社區中相當分散，大約一半是土地交流，一半是開發。未來的支出就是這樣的。

Okay, understood. And does that include any potential deployment to M&A of smaller builders?

好的，明白了。這是否包括對小型建築商的併購的任何潛在部署？

It does not include that, no.

它不包括那個，不。

Okay. Understood. And then just a quick follow up, if I could. On the decision to retire the debt, maybe just a little surprising kind of in the context of deploying capital to more accretive avenues, meaning that kind of after-tax cost of debt, pretty low relative to incremental returns on your business. So just maybe talk about why you may be taking that out? Is it difficult to refinance, and you could probably put it on the revolver, even? Just -- any thoughts there?

好的。明白了。如果可以的話，然後快速跟進。關於償還債務的決定，在將資本部署到更具增值性的途徑的背景下，可能有點令人驚訝，這意味著這種稅後債務成本相對於企業的增量回報來說相當低。那也許談談你為什麼要把它拿出來？再融資是否困難，甚至可以把它放在左輪手槍上？只是——有什麼想法嗎？

Yeah, it's definitely not difficult to refinance. It's just where the rates are at right now are not that attractive to refinance that, especially considering we have almost $900 million of cash. And so we always have the ability to be opportunistic and do a new debt issuance later on if rates are in a better place and we need the capital. So as of right now, we have plenty of capital. We're going to pay them off. And then if we have different capital needs down the road, we can be opportunistic.

是的，再融資絕對不難。只是目前的利率對於再融資來說沒有那麼大的吸引力，特別是考慮到我們擁有近 9 億美元的現金。因此，如果利率處於更好的位置並且我們需要資金，我們總是有能力投機並在以後發行新的債券。所以到目前為止，我們有充足的資金。我們要還清他們的錢。然後，如果我們以後有不同的資本需求，我們就可以投機取巧。

Okay. I appreciate it. Thanks, guys.

好的。我很感激。多謝你們。

Thanks, Joe.

謝謝，喬。

Truman Patterson, Wolfe Research.

杜魯門帕特森，沃爾夫研究中心。

Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my questions.

嘿，早上好，夥計們。感謝您回答我的問題。

Good morning.

早安.

Hey, good morning. Just wanted to run through the gross margin guidance down, I think about 70 bps year over year in '24. Could you just help us understand what's embedded in that land versus stick-and-brick inflation? And then any thoughts on potential pricing power as we move through the year? The pricing power portion, as I'm trying to understand, you've got kind of a step down embedded in your gross margin guidance in 2Q through 4Q versus the first quarter?

嗨，早安。只是想將毛利率指導下調，我認為 24 年同比下降了 70 個基點。您能否幫助我們了解這片土地與通貨膨脹的關係​​？那麼，隨著這一年的發展，我們對潛在的定價能力有什麼想法嗎？正如我試圖理解的那樣，定價能力部分與第一季相比，第二季到第四季的毛利率指引是否有所下降？

Hey, Truman. This is Doug. Our forecast -- our business plan forecast is for margins to be slightly down compared to '23. But it's early and with good market conditions, which we are currently seeing, we should see those margins tighten, subject to cost conditions as well, obviously. But that's where we see it right now. But we have a long way to go.

嘿，杜魯門。這是道格。我們的預測—我們的業務計劃預測利潤率將比 23 年略有下降。但現在還為時過早，鑑於我們目前所看到的良好的市場狀況，我們應該會看到這些利潤率收緊，顯然也受到成本條件的影響。但這就是我們現在所看到的。但我們還有很長的路要走。

Yeah, understood. When I'm thinking about your all's community count over the past couple of years, I think it's up quite a bit like 40% or so. Could you just talk about your kind of targeted absorption pace? Is it still in that 3.5 range? And I'm trying to understand if that might be a kind of an upper bound when they're based on labor, lot availability, and anything above that you kind of start pulling on the pricing lever a little bit harder?

是的，明白了。當我考慮過去幾年你們所有的社區數量時，我認為增加了 40% 左右。能談談您的目標吸收速度嗎？還在3.5的範圍內嗎？我試圖了解，當它們基於勞動力、批次可用性以及任何高於該上限的因素時，這是否可能是一種上限？

This is Doug again. There's no upper-bound limit for labor. The supply chain is actually quite normal if anything is normal and in today's world. But our pace, years and years and years ago, we kind of targeted 3. But our pace today, target is 3.5.

這又是道格。勞動力沒有上限。如果說當今世界一切正常的話，供應鏈其實是相當正常的。但我們的步伐，很多年前，我們的目標是 3。但我們今天的目標是 3.5。

Okay, got you. And if I could just squeak -- sneak one in there, you said we're off to a good start in January and February. Just trying to understand with the pullback in rates and the demand rebound that you've seen so far, have you all been able to reduce or pull back on incentives at all the past several weeks? Or have you taken a bit more of a wait-and-see approach, not to disrupt kind of the momentum building ahead of the spring selling season?

好的，明白了。如果我能吱吱叫——偷偷地放進去，你說過我們在一月和二月會有一個好的開始。只是想了解到目前為止你所看到的利率回落和需求反彈，過去幾週你們是否都能夠減少或取消激勵措施？或者您採取了更多的觀望態度，而不是破壞春季銷售季節之前形成的勢頭？

Thank you, Truman, good question. This is Linda. So yes, we are pulling back on incentives. In January, we were at 4.4% incentives and continuing to reduce debt to under 4% month to date in February. So still seeing a good opportunity to keep a strong pace while pulling back on incentives community by community.

謝謝杜魯門，好問題。這是琳達。所以，是的，我們正在取消激勵措施。1 月份，我們的激勵率為 4.4%，並繼續將 2 月份迄今的債務降至 4% 以下。因此，仍然看到一個很好的機會來保持強勁的步伐，同時減少社區的激勵措施。

Perfect. Thank you all and good luck in '24.

完美的。謝謝大家，祝 24 年好運。

Thanks, Truman.

謝謝，杜魯門。

Stephen Kim, Evercore.

史蒂芬金，Evercore。

Yeah, thanks very much, guys. Appreciate all the color so far and the guidance. I wanted to ask a couple of longer-term questions. Just trying to get a sense for how you're trying -- thinking about positioning the company once the dust settles here with the rate volatility over the last couple of years. So I'm curious if you could give us a sense for longer-term goals for, let's say, community count growth and the growth in the business.

是的，非常感謝，夥計們。感謝迄今為止所有的顏色和指導。我想問幾個長期問題。只是想了解一下您正在如何嘗試 - 考慮在過去幾年的利率波動塵埃落定後對公司進行定位。因此，我很好奇您能否讓我們了解社區數量成長和業務成長等長期目標。

I mean, you threw out a 10% number, sounds like we're going to see in '25. Because it sounds like 2024, we're going to be kind of flat by the end of the year on community count but then growing 10%, it sounds like, in 2025. Wondering if that 10% is a good level that we should be thinking about for you guys for growth.

我的意思是，你拋出了 10% 的數字，聽起來我們會在 25 年看到。因為聽起來像是 2024 年，到年底我們的社區數量將持平，但到 2025 年，社區數量將增加 10%。想知道 10% 是否是一個我們應該為你們的成長考慮的好水平。

Similarly, curious if you could give us a sense for what your target is for leverage, what you're sort of thinking longer term. Then also, what you think the longer-term operating margin can be, so top-line growth leverage you want to run the business at and what you think is a sustainable operating margin for the company?

同樣，我想知道您能否讓我們了解您的槓桿目標是什麼，以及您的長期想法是什麼。另外，您認為長期營業利潤率可以是多少，您希望經營業務的頂線成長槓桿是多少，以及您認為公司的可持續營業利潤率是多少？

So as far as growth, I'll take the top line, Stephen. It's Doug. We are continuing to establish operations. We are -- we announced Utah last year, and I would expect to have established operations in the Florida and Coastal Carolina markets this year. So either organically or through M&A, we're going to continue to grow top-line growth in those new markets.

就成長而言，我將採取最重要的措施，史蒂芬。是道格。我們正在繼續開展業務。我們去年宣佈在猶他州開展業務，我預計今年將在佛羅裡達州和卡羅來納州沿海市場建立業務。因此，無論是透過有機方式還是透過併購，我們都將繼續在這些新市場中實現營收成長。

In our existing markets, we've got 15 divisions across the country. Half are close to stabilization on the West, generating strong cash flow, very good margins. And then the Central and the East continues to be our growth markets, seeing tremendous growth as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, in the Texas and Carolina markets, which we're very bullish on.

在我們現有的市場中，我們在全國設有 15 個部門。西方的一半接近穩定，產生強勁的現金流，利潤率非常高。然後，中部和東部仍然是我們的成長市場，正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，德克薩斯州和卡羅來納州市場出現了巨大的成長，我們非常看好這兩個市場。

And then, Stephen, I'll take some of the others. On targeted leverage, we don't have a specific target because it will depend on the business needs. But I think where we're at right now and then after we pay off the bonds is a good place to be. We're low 30s now, and a debt to cap will be low 20s after we pay off the bonds. Somewhere in that range, I think, is a good spot for us to be in.

然後，史蒂芬，我會帶一些其他的。關於目標槓桿，我們沒有具體目標，因為這將取決於業務需求。但我認為我們現在所處的位置以及我們還清債券之後的位置都是一個好地方。我們現在還不到 30 多歲，在我們還清債券後，債務上限將低至 20 多歲。我認為，在這個範圍內的某個地方是我們所處的好位置。

As far as margins long term, Stephen -- I mean, listen, we underwrite our land deals 18% to the 22% range, but we do self develop about 65%, probably closer to 70% of our lots. And when we underwrite those deals, it's typically in the low 20s, somewhere between 20% to 24%. So if you're developing more lots, you should have a better margin profile, right? If you're buying finished lots, you're going to be an 18% margin. So that's kind of how we look at the long term.

就長期利潤率而言，史蒂芬——我的意思是，聽著，我們承銷土地交易的 18% 到 22% 的範圍，但我們確實自行開發了大約 65%，可能接近我們土地的 70%。當我們承銷這些交易時，其比例通常在 20 左右，介於 20% 到 24% 之間。因此，如果您開發更多批次，您應該擁有更好的利潤狀況，對嗎？如果您購買成品批次，您將獲得 18% 的利潤。這就是我們對長期的看法。

And I know you asked about -- go ahead, Stephen.

我知道你問過——繼續吧，史蒂芬。

No, no. I don't want to interrupt you.

不，不。我不想打擾你。

Okay. I know you asked about operating margin and I think as we get more scale in the out years, you're going to see that increase to the operating margin. Our goal there is to get more leverage on our fixed costs and increase that bottom line operating margin.

好的。我知道您問過營業利潤率，我認為隨著我們在未來幾年擴大規模，您將看到營業利潤率的增加。我們的目標是提高固定成本的槓桿率並提高營業利潤率。

Makes sense. Okay. And then (Multiple speakers)

說得通。好的。進而（多位發言者）

Let me interrupt you one more time, Stephen. We're in a very normal -- if anything is normal, as I mentioned earlier. But our business plan is very simple. We've increased book value per share of 15% since the end of 2015. And our goal is very simple. We're going to increase book value per share 10% to 15% through a combination of share repurchases and strong earnings.

讓我再打斷你一次，史蒂芬。正如我之前提到的，我們處於非常正常的狀態——如果有什麼正常的話。但我們的商業計劃非常簡單。自 2015 年底以來，我們的每股帳面價值增加了 15%。我們的目標非常簡單。我們將透過股票回購和強勁獲利相結合，將每股帳面價值提高 10% 至 15%。

So our focus is driving the stock price up. We just focus on book value per share because all the other extraneous discussion on multiples and everything, it really doesn't mean anything to us. We'll trade with the group however they trade. We're just focused on making more money going forward and delivering a great customer experience.

所以我們的重點是推動股價上漲。我們只關注每股帳面價值，因為所有其他關於倍數和一切的無關討論，這對我們來說確實沒有任何意義。無論他們如何交易，我們都會與他們進行交易。我們只是專注於未來賺更多的錢並提供出色的客戶體驗。

Okay. Yeah, that's helpful context. I noticed that your lot option count, not your supply, but the actual number of lot options you had declined for a couple of -- has now declined for two quarters in a row. Curious if you could give a little context around that and where you see that going forward?

好的。是的，這是有用的背景。我注意到你的批次選擇計數，而不是你的供應量，而是你拒絕了幾個批次選擇的實際數量 - 現在已經連續兩個季度下降。好奇您能否提供一些相關背景資訊以及您對未來的看法嗎？

And then, Glenn, what do you think is, on a year supply owned basis, a level that we should be thinking you can run -- that you intend to run the business at? Kind of low threes in terms of your supply owned? That's my guess.

然後，格倫，您認為，在一年的供應擁有量基礎上，我們應該認為您可以運行的水平是多少 - 您打算在哪個水平上運行業務？就您擁有的供應量而言，有點低？這是我的猜測。

Yeah, Stephen, good questions. I think the overall lot supply that you're seeing, and it's been kind of flattish over the last couple of quarters, that's just timing. We have a strong pipeline. And so there's good growth in that pipeline. But part of what you're seeing is you're seeing a decrease in some of those longer-term land holdings that are owned as we continue to work through some of those assets. And we're replacing a lot of that with more optioned land so that's just a mix change there.

是的，史蒂芬，好問題。我認為你所看到的總體供應量，在過去幾個季度中一直持平，這只是時機。我們有強大的管道。因此，該管道有良好的增長。但你所看到的部分原因是，隨著我們繼續處理其中一些資產，你所擁有的一些長期土地持有量有所減少。我們正在用更多可選擇的土地來取代其中的許多，所以這只是一個混合變化。

And then going forward, we're targeting two to three years owned from a land perspective, and it just depends on the market. There are some markets where we're under two and then some markets that were closer to three, but that's kind of the range.

然後展望未來，從土地角度來看，我們的目標是擁有兩到三年，這取決於市場。有些市場我們的排名低於 2，有些市場接近 3，但這就是範圍。

Got you. Great. Thanks a lot, guys. Appreciate it.

明白你了。偉大的。非常感謝，夥計們。欣賞它。

Thanks, Stephen.

謝謝，史蒂芬。

Tyler Batory, Oppenheimer.

泰勒·巴托里，奧本海默。

Good morning. Thank you. My first question is just strategic around market expansion, new markets. Can you just revisit your philosophy around organic market expansion compared with M&A, talk through some of the positives and negatives of those avenues? And the reason I asked, there has been a fair bit of M&A so far in this space this year. So I'm not sure if that changes your perspective or press if you have a different view on the M&A landscape today compared with the last call in the fall.

早安.謝謝。我的第一個問題是圍繞市場擴張、新市場的策略。與併購相比，您能否重新審視您對有機市場擴張的理念，談談這些途徑的一些正面和負面的面向？我問這個問題的原因是，今年到目前為止，這個領域已經進行了大量的併購。因此，我不確定這是否會改變您的觀點或媒體是否對今天的併購情況與秋季的最後一次電話會議有不同的看法。

No. I mean, like I mentioned earlier, I would expect us to establish operations in Florida and the Coastal Carolinas this year, either organically or through M&A. As you can imagine, the only -- the big difference between M&A and organic is you're paying a multiple of some sort on M&A. And organically, you're paying book value, so that's really the difference. And frankly, we started organically back in 2009, so we do have a very strong playbook of growing organically. We've had tremendous success, so we'll continue down both paths.

不。我的意思是，就像我之前提到的那樣，我希望我們今年能夠在佛羅裡達州和卡羅萊納州沿海地區建立業務，無論是有機的還是透過併購。正如你可以想像的那樣，併購和有機併購之間唯一的巨大區別是你在併購上支付了某種倍數的費用。從有機角度來說，你支付的是帳面價值，所以這就是真正的區別。坦白說，我們早在 2009 年就開始了有機成長，所以我們確實有一個非常強大的有機成長手冊。我們已經取得了巨大的成功，因此我們將繼續沿著兩條路走下去。

Okay. Okay, great. And then a follow up on gross margin, just specific on the guidance in Q1. Just help us bridge where you exited in Q4 versus what you're expecting in Q1. It sounds like you're pulling back a little bit on incentives, but gross margins are still going to be for us down. So I'm just trying to get a good sense of what you're expecting in terms of your outlook in Q1 specifically?

好的。好的，太好了。然後是毛利率的後續行動，具體針對第一季的指引。只需幫助我們彌合您在第四季度的退出位置與您在第一季的預期。聽起來你在激勵措施上有所減少，但我們的毛利率仍然會下降。所以我只是想了解一下您對第一季的具體前景有何期望？

Yeah, Doug talked about it a little bit earlier. But just to give a few more details from Q4 to Q1, it's largely flat, so really strong margins than Q1. But then what you're seeing, there is a little bit of land vintage too because we're opening new communities and closing out of older communities. So that plays a part into the full year guide. But overall, like Doug said, it's early. And so as the spring selling season unfolds, if we continue to see strong demand, that will have an impact on margin.

是的，道格早些時候談到過這一點。但僅提供從第四季度到第一季的更多細節，它基本上持平，因此比第一季的利潤率確實很高。但你所看到的，也有一些土地陳舊，因為我們正在開放新社區並關閉舊社區。因此，這在全年指南中發揮了重要作用。但總的來說，正如道格所說，現在還為時過早。因此，隨著春季銷售季節的展開，如果我們繼續看到強勁的需求，這將對利潤率產生影響。

Okay, great. That's all for me. Thank you.

好的，太好了。這就是我的全部。謝謝。

Thanks, Tyler.

謝謝，泰勒。

Jesse Lederman, Zelman & Associates.

傑西·萊德曼，Zelman & Associates。

Good morning. Congrats on the strong results and thanks for taking my question.

早安.恭喜我們取得了優異的成績，並感謝您提出我的問題。

Thanks, Jesse.

謝謝，傑西。

At your Investor Day in May 2022, you discussed your expectation for ASP to trend lower as your business shifts from California and you start smaller homes. Can you talk a little bit more about the latter? How has the reception been from homebuyers for some of the attached and smaller product? And is that still the plan with the affordability equation becoming a bit more balanced here of late with rates having pulled back?

在 2022 年 5 月的投資者日上，您討論了隨著您的業務從加利福尼亞州轉移以及您開始建造較小的房屋，您對平均售價趨於下降的預期。能多談談後者嗎？購屋者對一些附屬產品和小型產品的反應如何？隨著利率回落，最近負擔能力方程式變得更加平衡，這仍然是這個計劃嗎？

Yeah, good question, Jesse. It's definitely still part of the plan, and we've executed on that plan. Even in our -- what most people would consider higher-priced areas like California, we're doing a lot more attached than we used to and items like that with an eye towards affordability and pace, and that's worked out well for us.

是的，好問題，傑西。這絕對仍然是計劃的一部分，我們已經執行了該計劃。即使在大多數人認為價格較高的地區，如加州，我們也比以前更加重視此類項目，著眼於可負擔性和節奏，這對我們來說效果很好。

But overall, you will see our ASP trend down a little bit compared to where it's been. And some of that is just mix, though, obviously, with more Central and East deliveries from Texas and the Carolinas where the ASP is a little bit more affordable than those markets.

但總體而言，您會看到我們的平均售價趨勢與之前相比略有下降。不過，很明顯，其中一些只是混合，來自德克薩斯州和卡羅萊納州的中部和東部交貨量較多，這些地區的平均售價比這些市場更便宜一些。

Great. That's helpful. One question on price point differentiation. Are you seeing any particular segment stronger or weaker as far as the year rolls over here?

偉大的。這很有幫助。一個關於價格點差異化的問題。就今年而言，您是否看到任何特定細分市場變得更強或更弱？

Another good question. When in the fourth quarter, we actually saw pretty consistent demand across all our segments from entry level to first move up. So overall, pretty strong margin profiles are actually fairly consistent as well. So I think all segments are working well.

另一個好問題。在第四季度，我們實際上看到從入門級到首次升級的所有細分市場的需求都相當一致。因此，整體而言，相當強勁的利潤率實際上也相當一致。所以我認為所有部分都運作良好。

And that's continued even with a strong start to the year. Have you seen any segment lag be particularly strong or is it pretty consistent across them?

即使今年開局強勁，這種情況仍在繼續。您是否發現任何細分市場的滯後特別嚴重，或者它們之間的滯後程度是否相當一致？

Pretty consistent.

相當一致。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Jay McCanless, Wedbush.

傑伊·麥卡利斯，韋德布希。

Hey, good morning, everyone. First question, could you talk about where cycle times are now and how much further, if at all, you need to get back to pre-COVID levels?

嘿，大家早安。第一個問題，您能否談談現在的周期時間以及您還需要多長時間（如果有的話）才能回到新冠疫情前的水平？

Good question, Jay. This is Tom. We're really pleased with the cycle time improvement as it was one of our key initiatives last year, and I'd say we're back to pre-pandemic cycle times. Average or template of what we're striving for is a 115-day production schedule, and we're pretty close to being right on schedule. So we may have the ability to extract a little bit more out of that as we're looking at new templates to potentially reduce cycle times even further.

好問題，傑伊。這是湯姆。我們對週期時間的改善感到非常滿意，因為這是我們去年的關鍵舉措之一，我想說我們又回到了大流行前的周期時間。我們所追求的平均或模板是 115 天的生產計劃，而且我們非常接近按計劃進行。因此，當我們正在尋找新的模板以進一步縮短週期時間時，我們可能有能力從中提取更多內容。

Okay, great. That's all I had. Thanks, everyone.

好的，太好了。這就是我所擁有的一切。感謝大家。

Thanks, Jay.

謝謝，傑伊。

Mike Dahl, RBC Capital Markets.

麥克·達爾，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Just another follow up on price incentive trends. It's encouraging to hear that February to date has come down further. We have had a bit of an uptick in rates in Feb. versus Jan. It sounds like things are still strong on the ground, and you're dialing back incentives.

早安.感謝您回答我的問題。這只是價格激勵趨勢的另一個後續行動。聽說二月份迄今已進一步下降，這令人鼓舞。與一月份相比，二月份的利率有所上升。聽起來情況仍然強勁，而且您正在取消激勵措施。

Can you talk a little bit more to that? Do you think you've still been able to secure advantage rates, and therefore, you haven't seen that impact yet? Or you think as we move through the very start of the spring-summer season, the demand has just been strong enough that this uptick in rates hasn't had really any impact here?

能多談一點嗎？您是否認為您仍然能夠獲得優惠利率，因此還沒有看到這種影響？或者您認為，當我們進入春夏季節之初時，需求已經足夠強勁，以至於利率上升並沒有真正產生任何影響？

Hey, Mike, it's Doug again. As Linda mentioned earlier, incentives on orders in the quarter were 4.8%. In January, they're 4.4%. We have a very good supplier of move-in-ready homes promoting rate buydowns, but they're typically -- we don't use any forwards, but about 86% of our orders are using some sort of financing incentive. Most of it is permanent versus temporary.

嘿，麥克，又是道格。正如 Linda 之前提到的，本季訂單激勵率為 4.8%。1 月份，這一數字為 4.4%。我們有一個非常好的可入住房屋供應商，他們提倡降低利率，但他們通常——我們不使用任何遠期合約，但我們大約 86% 的訂單都使用某種融資激勵措施。其中大部分是永久性的而不是臨時性的。

Another factoid in our backlog had TPC. Our average mortgage rate was 6.3% with that using 2.1% points, and that's our lock backlog. And then in Q4, TPC delivery is at 6.6%.

我們待辦事項中的另一個事實是 TPC。我們的平均抵押貸款利率是 6.3%，使用 2.1% 的點，這就是我們的鎖定積壓。然後在第四季度，TPC 交付率為 6.6%。

So the beauty of higher rates is the homebuilders have the ability to pull a lot of levers to keep absorption. We had another excellent week of sales last week, so there's this continued locked-in effect with the resale market that continues to allow the new homebuilders to increase market share of total home sales. I think it's well over 30% now, which is typically 10%. In my own personal forecast, I think rates are going to stay pretty much where they are, maybe trend up a little. But it's an election year, so it probably won't move much, but that's where it is right now.

因此，較高利率的美妙之處在於，房屋建築商有能力拉動大量槓桿來維持吸收。上週我們的銷售又表現出色，因此轉售市場的持續鎖定效應繼續使新房建築商能夠增加房屋銷售總額的市場份額。我認為現在已經超過 30%，通常是 10%。根據我個人的預測，我認為利率將基本保持不變，甚至可能略有上升。但今年是選舉年，所以可能不會有太大變化，但這就是現在的情況。

Got it. Yeah, that helps. I was kind of curious about whether there was any impact from forwards in there that may be just delayed some of the impact on rates kind of going back up suddenly. But it doesn't sound like that's the case, which again, is encouraging that you're able to dial back further.

知道了。是的，這有幫助。我有點好奇遠期是否會產生任何影響，這些影響可能只是延遲了對利率突然回升的一些影響。但聽起來情況並非如此，這再次令人鼓舞，因為您能夠進一步回撥。

I guess just segueing it since you brought up the point on what your stats look like for TPC, can you -- now that that's wholly owned, can you help us level set on the -- what we should be thinking about for total contribution from finance operations this year and how that compares to -- I think you still had financed profits; you had some other income. So if there's kind of an apples-to-apples comparison, we should be thinking about '24 versus '23?

我想，既然你提出了 TPC 的統計數據，你能幫我們確定一下我們應該考慮的總貢獻水平嗎？今年的財務運營情況以及與此相比——我認為你們仍然有融資利潤；你還有一些其他收入。因此，如果要進行同類比較，我們應該考慮「24」與「23」？

Sure, Mike. Hey, this is Glenn. So under our old model, when we were a joint venture, we got 65% of the economics of those transactions. So just assuming we're going to get 100% of the economics going forward, it's probably a good place to start. I think longer term, as we get more efficient in that business, we could probably even draw more economics from our financing -- financial services, mortgage companies. And we're also continuing to look at other ancillary businesses to add to that financial services area as well.

當然，麥克。嘿，這是格倫。因此，在我們的舊模式下，當我們是一家合資企業時，我們獲得了這些交易的 65% 的經濟效益。因此，假設我們將獲得 100% 的經濟效益，這可能是一個很好的起點。我認為從長遠來看，隨著我們在該業務中變得更加高效，我們甚至可能從我們的融資（金融服務、抵押貸款公司）中獲得更多的經濟效益。我們也持續尋找其他輔助業務來增加該金融服務領域。

Got it. Okay. Thank you.

知道了。好的。謝謝。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝，麥克。

Alex Barron, Housing Research Center.

亞歷克斯·巴倫，住房研究中心。

Hey, guys. Great job for the quarter and the year. My questions are around your geographic expansion into Utah, and you mentioned Florida. Just wondering if you guys can help us on the timing of when we would see first orders and first deliveries in those two respective markets, roughly?

大家好。本季和全年的工作都非常出色。我的問題是關於您向猶他州的地理擴張，您提到了佛羅裡達州。只是想知道你們是否可以幫助我們了解這兩個市場的首次訂單和首次交付的大致時間？

Yeah, Alex, it's Doug. We're expecting deliveries in Utah by the end of '25. And I would expect deliveries from the Florida and Coastal markets in '26.

是的，亞歷克斯，是道格。我們預計 25 年底在猶他州交貨。我預計佛羅裡達州和沿海市場將於 26 年發貨。

Got it. Thanks. And then as far as your margin guidance, it looks like it's going to trend lower in the back half of the year versus the first quarter. Is that because you guys increased incentives recently or just geographic mix that's kind of trending you in that direction?

知道了。謝謝。然後就您的利潤指引而言，下半年的利潤率似乎會比第一季下降。這是因為你們最近增加了激勵措施，還是只是地理組合讓你們朝這個方向發展？

Can you repeat that question?

你能重複一下這個問題嗎？

Yeah. Your guidance for the margins, the gross margins, you said that you expect 22% to 23% in first quarter and then 21.5% to 22.5% for the full year. So I'm trying to understand what's causing that trend. Is it that you increased your incentives recently or if there's just the geographic shift, or is it rising land costs? What's driving that?

是的。您對利潤率、毛利率的指導，您說預計第一季為 22% 至 23%，全年為 21.5% 至 22.5%。所以我試著去了解是什麼導致了這種趨勢。是你們最近增加了激勵措施，還是只是地理上的變化，或是土地成本上升？是什麼推動了這一點？

Yes, it's mainly just land vintage closing out of some higher-margin older communities in the first part of the year and then opening, like we said, 65-ish communities -- new communities this year that are a newer land vintage. So some of that is just the mix of that. But like we said earlier, it will all depend on how demand -- if demand continues the way it's going right now, you could see some upside to margin as the year goes forward.

是的，主要是在今年上半年關閉了一些利潤較高的老社區，然後像我們所說的那樣，開設了 65 個左右的社區——今年的新社區是較新的土地年份。所以其中一些只是其中的混合。但正如我們之前所說，這完全取決於需求如何——如果需求繼續保持目前的狀態，那麼隨著時間的推移，你可能會看到利潤率出現一些上漲。

Okay. And then if I could ask one more, I think I heard, let's say, 60% growth in Texas over two years and 30% in the Carolinas. Were you guys referencing deliveries -- versus deliveries in 2023 or versus orders?

好的。然後，如果我可以再問一個問題，我想我聽說德克薩斯州在兩年內增長了 60%，卡羅萊納州增長了 30%。你們提到的交貨量是與 2023 年的交貨量還是訂單相比？

That was correct, deliveries.

這是正確的，交貨。

Deliveries, yes.

送貨，是的。

'23 -- versus '23 in the next two years.

'23——與未來兩年的'23相比。

Got it. All right, awesome. Thanks a lot and good luck.

知道了。好吧，太棒了。非常感謝，祝你好運。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Alex.

謝謝，亞歷克斯。

There are no further questions in the queue. I'd like to hand the call back to Doug Bauer for closing remarks.

隊列中沒有其他問題。我想將電話轉回給道格·鮑爾（Doug Bauer）做結束語。

So I'd like to thank everyone for joining us today, and we look forward to chatting with all of you next quarter. Have a great week. Thank you.

因此，我要感謝大家今天加入我們，我們期待下個季度與大家交談。祝你有個愉快的一周。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開線路，度過美好的一天。