使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Greetings, and welcome to the Travel + Leisure Q3 2025 earnings conference call and webcast. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Erik Hoag, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, Erik.
大家好,歡迎參加《旅遊+休閒》雜誌2025年第三季財報電話會議和網路直播。(操作說明)提醒各位,本次會議正在錄音。現在我很高興將電話轉交給財務長埃里克霍格。請繼續,埃里克。
Erik Hoag - Chief Financial Officer
Erik Hoag - Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Kevin. Good morning to everyone. Before we begin, we would like to remind you that our discussions today will include forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements, and the forward-looking statements made today are effective only as of today.
謝謝你,凱文。大家早安。在開始之前,我們想提醒各位,我們今天的討論將包含前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與前瞻性聲明中指出的結果有重大差異,並且今天作出的前瞻性聲明僅截至今天有效。
We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise these statements. The factors that could cause actual results to differ are discussed in our SEC filings and in our press release accompanying this earnings call. You can find a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures discussed in today's call in the earnings press release available on our investor relations website.
我們不承擔公開更新或修改這些聲明的義務。可能導致實際結果出現差異的因素已在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件以及本次財報電話會議的新聞稿中進行了討論。您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上發布的獲利新聞稿中找到今天電話會議中討論的非GAAP財務指標的調節表。
This morning Michael Brown, our President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide an overview of our third-quarter results and our longer-term growth strategy. And then I will provide greater detail on the quarter, our balance sheet, and outlook for the rest of the year.
今天上午,我們的總裁兼執行長麥可布朗將概述我們第三季的業績和長期成長策略。然後我將詳細介紹本季業績、資產負債表以及今年剩餘時間的展望。
Following our prepared remarks, we'll open up the call for questions. Finally, all comparisons today are of the same period of the prior year unless specifically stated.
在我們發表完準備好的演講後,我們將開放提問環節。最後,除非另有說明,所有比較均與上年同期進行比較。
With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Michael Brown.
接下來,我很高興將電話交給麥可布朗。
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Good morning, and thanks for joining us. Travel + Leisure delivered another exceptional quarter that reflects the strength of our model and the consistency of our execution. During today's call, Erik will focus on the specifics around our quarterly metrics, and I will dedicate more time to our strategic priorities and progress against them.
早安,感謝各位的收看。《旅遊與休閒》雜誌又取得了一項卓越的季度業績,這反映了我們商業模式的優勢和我們執行力的穩定性。在今天的電話會議上,Erik 將重點介紹我們季度指標的具體細節,而我將花更多時間介紹我們的策略重點以及我們在實現這些重點方面取得的進展。
Our strategy is focused on delivering outstanding vacation experiences for our owners and members while building lasting value for our shareholders. We're executing the strategy by broadening our brand reach, expanding our data-driven marketing, investing in digital innovation, and enabling our associates to deliver excellence every day. Leisure demand remains robust and vacations continue to be a priority.
我們的策略重點是為業主和會員提供卓越的度假體驗,同時為股東創造持久價值。我們正在透過擴大品牌影響力、拓展數據驅動行銷、投資數位化創新以及賦能員工每天追求卓越來執行這項策略。休閒需求依然強勁,度假仍是人們優先考慮的事項。
In the quarter, we generated over $1 billion in revenue, $266 million in adjusted EBITDA, and $1.80 in adjusted earnings per share, all up meaningfully year-over-year. Our strong free cash flow generation allowed us to return $106 million to shareholders during the quarter.
本季度,我們實現了超過 10 億美元的收入,調整後的 EBITDA 為 2.66 億美元,調整後的每股收益為 1.80 美元,所有數據均較上年同期大幅增長。我們強勁的自由現金流使我們能夠在本季度向股東返還 1.06 億美元。
These results were fueled by the strength of our vacation ownership business with sustained momentum in volume per guest or VPG. We ended the quarter at $3,304 above the high end of our guidance range. This marks our 18th consecutive quarter with VPG's over $3000 since we changed our credit quality standards in 2020.
這些業績得益於我們度假所有權業務的強勁表現,每位客人的消費額(VPG)持續成長。本季末,我們的業績比預期範圍的上限高出 3,304 美元。自 2020 年我們改變信貸品質標準以來,這已是我們連續第 18 個季度 VPG 超過 3000 美元。
Tour flow remained healthy this quarter at 200,000 tours, a clear sign that our consumers appetite for travel remains strong. By focusing on high-quality tours and owner engagement, we are driving stronger closed rates and higher long-term value. These results reflect the core of our business, a resilient customer base built around leisure travel and a compelling value proposition. Beyond this quarter's results, we continue to advance three strategic priorities to drive sustainable growth.
本季旅遊客流量保持健康,達到 20 萬團,這清楚地表明我們的消費者對旅行的需求仍然強勁。透過專注於高品質的旅遊和業主互動,我們正在提高成交率和提升長期價值。這些成果反映了我們業務的核心,即圍繞休閒旅遊建立的穩健客戶群和引人注目的價值主張。除了本季的業績之外,我們將繼續推動三大策略重點,以推動永續成長。
First, expanding our brand portfolio. In September, we announced our newest Sports Illustrated Resort in Chicago just one block off Michigan Avenue. The property will be transformed into approximately 250 units by late 2026 while remaining open during construction.
首先,拓展我們的品牌組合。9 月,我們宣佈在芝加哥開設最新的《體育畫報》度假村,距離密西根大道僅一個街區。該物業將於 2026 年底前改建為約 250 個單元,施工期間將保持開放。
We also recently launched the Eddie Bauer Adventure Club in partnership with Authentic Brands Group. Sales are now underway and the first resort in Moab, Utah is set to welcome owners in early 2026. This progress builds on a year of expansion where we've grown our portfolio with Sports Illustrated resorts, Accor Vacation Club, and Margaritaville Vacation Club locations.
我們最近也與 Authentic Brands Group 合作推出了 Eddie Bauer 探險俱樂部。目前銷售工作正在進行中,位於猶他州摩押的首個度假村預計將於 2026 年初迎來業主。這項進展建立在過去一年擴張的基礎上,我們透過收購 Sports Illustrated 度假村、雅高度假俱樂部和瑪格麗塔維爾度假俱樂部,擴大了我們的投資組合。
Each brand targets a distinct traveler profile, expanding our reach and diversifying revenue streams. Sports Illustrated resorts delivers immersive sports-themed experiences. A core vacation club expands our reach into a growing international market.
每個品牌都針對不同的旅行者群體,從而擴大了我們的覆蓋範圍並實現了收入來源多元化。《體育畫報》度假村提供沉浸式運動主題體驗。核心度假俱樂部將我們的業務拓展到不斷成長的國際市場。
Margaritaville Vacation Club offers a laid-back lifestyle built around fun and relaxation, and Eddie Bauer Adventure Club introduces an outdoor-focused brand. Together, these brands expand our addressable market, deepen engagement with younger and more diverse travelers, and generate incremental VOI sales from customers seeking fresh and distinctive vacation experiences.
Margaritaville Vacation Club 提供以娛樂和放鬆為核心的悠閒生活方式,而 Eddie Bauer Adventure Club 則推出了以戶外活動為中心的品牌。這些品牌共同擴大了我們的目標市場,加深了與更年輕、更多元化的旅客的互動,並從尋求新鮮獨特度假體驗的客戶那裡獲得了增量的 VOI 銷售。
Second, we are focused on elevating the owner and guest experience. We are investing in digital and AI tools that make vacation planning seamless while redesigning our own property experience to be more immersive and personalized. This goes beyond satisfaction scores. Our goal is to drive deeper engagement, repeat usage, and ultimately greater lifetime value.
其次,我們致力於提升業主和客人的體驗。我們正在投資數位化和人工智慧工具,使度假計畫更加便捷,同時也重新設計我們自己的飯店體驗,使其更具沉浸感和個性化。這不僅僅是關於滿意度評分。我們的目標是提高用戶參與度、重複使用率,最終提升用戶終身價值。
In 2025, our owner engagement scores have increased over 120 basis points versus the prior year. We have also reached 215,000 downloads on our Club Wyndham app with 28% of bookings coming through the app, a clear sign that our digital investments are enhancing engagement. We are pleased to announce that a world mark app officially launched in the App Store as well.
2025 年,我們的業主參與度得分比前一年提高了 120 多個基點。我們的 Club Wyndham 應用程式下載量也達到了 215,000 次,其中 28% 的預訂是透過該應用程式完成的,這清楚地表明,我們的數位化投資正在提高用戶參與度。我們很高興地宣布,世界標誌應用程式也已在 App Store 正式上線。
Lastly, on the third strategic priority, driving operational discipline and scale. We continue to focus on efficiency and sustainable growth. By leveraging our scale, we are driving healthy margins even against a more dynamic macroeconomic backdrop.
最後,關於第三個策略重點,即推動營運紀律和規模化。我們將繼續專注於效率和永續成長。憑藉我們的規模優勢,即使在更動態的宏觀經濟背景下,我們也能實現健康的利潤率。
This approach has allowed us to expand our adjusted EBITDA margin year-over-year from 24% to 25%, positioning us to balance strong near-term performance and long-term value creation. Looking ahead to the final quarter of 2025, we've seen no significant change in our customer behavior related to VPG portfolio performance, and booking pace. Booking pace is consistent to the prior year, which gives us confidence that our consumers are prioritizing travel.
這種方法使我們的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率從 24% 逐年提高到 25%,使我們能夠在強勁的近期業績和長期價值創造之間取得平衡。展望 2025 年最後一個季度,我們沒有看到客戶行為與 VPG 投資組合表現和預訂速度相關的重大變化。預訂速度與去年持平,這讓我們相信我們的消費者正在優先考慮旅行。
We are also encouraged by the growing interest from younger generations, with almost 70% of new buyers coming from Gen X, Millennial and Gen Z households. We are building a platform that combines a recurring revenue model with strong cash generation, enabling the enterprise to invest in new opportunities. Looking ahead, we see opportunities to expand our owner base, deepen engagement, and leverage our scales in ways that enhance revenue and profitability.
我們也很高興看到年輕一代的興趣日益濃厚,近 70% 的新買家來自 X 世代、千禧世代和 Z 世代家庭。我們正在建立一個平台,該平台將經常性收入模式與強大的現金流產生能力相結合,使企業能夠投資於新的機會。展望未來,我們看到了擴大所有者基礎、加深互動以及利用規模優勢來提高收入和獲利能力的機會。
At the same time, we remain disciplined in how we invest and allocate capital, ensuring that each decision supports shareholder value creation through sustainable growth and our consistent dividend and share repurchase program. Since then, we have returned $2.8 billion to shareholders. During that time, we have consistently paid a dividend and reduced our share count by 35%, giving our shareholders a bigger stake in a growing business.
同時,我們在投資和資本配置方面保持嚴謹,確保每項決策都能透過永續成長以及我們持續的分紅和股票回購計畫來支持股東價值的創造。自那時以來,我們已向股東返還了28億美元。在此期間,我們持續派發股息,並將股份數量減少了 35%,使我們的股東在不斷發展的企業中擁有更大的股份。
With that, I will hand it over to Erik to walk through our financial performance, capital allocation, and how we are positioning the business for the remainder of the year. Erik?
接下來,我將把發言權交給艾瑞克,讓他來介紹我們的財務表現、資本配置以及我們為今年剩餘時間所做的業務規劃。艾瑞克?
Erik Hoag - Chief Financial Officer
Erik Hoag - Chief Financial Officer
Thanks Michael, and good morning everyone. The third quarter was another strong period of outstanding execution for Travel + Leisure. We delivered solid top-line revenue growth, expanded margins, and generated strong cash flow and earnings. We also continue to return capital to shareholders and strengthen our balance sheet.
謝謝邁克爾,大家早安。《旅遊與休閒》雜誌第三季又是業績表現優異的強勁時期。我們實現了穩健的營收成長,擴大了利潤率,並產生了強勁的現金流和利潤。我們將繼續向股東返還資本,並增強我們的資產負債表。
These results demonstrate the resiliency of our business model and the consistent cash generation that sets Travel + Leisure apart. We're a capital efficient compounder converting steady growth into expanding cash flow, higher per-share results, and long-term shareholder value. The quarters reinforced our confidence and highlighted momentum across our business, and we'll keep the pedal down as we close out the year and head into 2026.
這些結果證明了我們商業模式的韌性以及《旅遊與休閒》雜誌與眾不同的持續現金流。我們是一家資本效率高的複合型企業,將穩定成長轉化為不斷擴大的現金流、更高的每股盈餘和長期的股東價值。這兩個季度增強了我們的信心,並突顯了我們業務的發展勢頭,我們將繼續全力以赴,迎接2026年的到來。
I'll begin by reviewing our consolidated financial results followed by segment performance. Lastly, I'll address our cash flow, balance sheet and provide an outlook. Total company revenue in the third quarter was $1.044 billion up 5% compared to the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA was $266 million up 10% year-over-year, and above the high end of our guidance range. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 100 basis points to 25%, reflecting both operating leverage and efficiency gains.
我將先回顧我們的合併財務業績,然後回顧各業務部門的業績。最後,我將介紹我們的現金流量、資產負債表並展望未來。第三季公司總營收為 10.44 億美元,比上年同期成長 5%。調整後 EBITDA 為 2.66 億美元,年增 10%,高於我們預期範圍的上限。調整後 EBITDA 利潤率成長 100 個基點至 25%,反映了經營槓桿效應和效率提升。
We exceeded our $255 million guidance midpoint by $11 million driven by higher gross VOI sales and effective cost management, resulting in improved profitability in the quarter.
由於毛VOI銷售額成長和有效的成本管理,我們比2.55億美元的預期中位數高出1,100萬美元,從而提高了本季的獲利能力。
This quarter again demonstrated the power of our compounding model where 5% revenue growth translated into 10% adjusted EBITDA growth, 8% adjusted net income growth and 15% adjusted earnings per share growth, reflecting both earnings expansion and the accretive impact of share repurchases. A higher effective tax rate, modestly tempered flow through from adjusted EBITDA to adjusted net income, but 14% adjusted pre-tax profit growth underscores the strength of our model.
本季再次證明了我們複合成長模式的威力,5% 的營收成長轉化為 10% 的調整後 EBITDA 成長、8% 的調整後淨收入成長和 15% 的調整後每股盈餘成長,這既反映了獲利擴張,也反映了股票回購的增值影響。較高的實際稅率,調整後 EBITDA 對調整後淨利潤的影響略有減弱,但 14% 的調整後稅前利潤增長凸顯了我們模型的優勢。
Turning to the vacation ownership segment, our core growth engine. Revenue grew 6% to $876 million while adjusted EBITDA increased 14% to $231 million demonstrating both strong demand and inventory efficiency. This growth fuels our free cash flow engine, which in turn funds reinvestment and consistent shareholder returns.
接下來我們來看看度假所有權領域,這是我們的核心成長引擎。營收成長 6% 至 8.76 億美元,調整後 EBITDA 成長 14% 至 2.31 億美元,顯示市場需求強勁且庫存效率高。這種成長為我們的自由現金流引擎提供了動力,進而為再投資和持續的股東回報提供了資金。
Gross VOI sales accelerated to $682 million supported by 2% tour flow growth and VPG of $3,304 up 10%. This reflects strong execution from our sales and marketing team. Vacation ownership adjusted EBITDA at a margin expanded 200 basis points year-over-year, reflecting measured cost management and efficient inventory deployment.
VOI 總銷售額加速成長至 6.82 億美元,這得益於 2% 的旅遊流量成長和 VPG 成長 10% 至 3,304 美元。這體現了我們銷售和市場團隊的出色執行力。度假所有權調整後 EBITDA 利潤率年增 200 個基點,反映了穩健的成本管理和高效的庫存部署。
Our disciplined capital-light development strategy and low cost recovery programs that help us recycle inventory efficiently allows us to support growth while preserving returns on invested capital. Our consumer finance portfolio remains stable and consistent with expectations. Delinquencies and defaults are showing no signs of deterioration.
我們嚴謹的輕資本發展策略和低成本的回收計畫幫助我們有效率地回收庫存,從而在支持成長的同時,維持投資資本的回報。我們的消費金融業務組合維持穩定,符合預期。拖欠和違約情況沒有惡化的跡象。
The full year loan loss provision is expected to finish at 21% unchanged from our prior guidance. Weighted average FICO scores for new originations stay above 740, demonstrating the continued strength of our underwriting standards.
預計全年貸款損失準備金將維持在 21%,與我們先前的預期一致。新發放貸款的加權平均 FICO 分數保持在 740 分以上,這表明我們的承保標準仍然強勁。
Now turning to our travel and membership segment. Segment revenue was $169 million up 1% year-over-year , while adjusted EBITDA was $58 million down 6%. Through this platform, we booked 422,000 transactions, putting over 1 million customers on vacation, a clear reminder of the scale and relevance of this business.
現在我們來看看我們的旅遊和會員服務部分。該部門營收為 1.69 億美元,年增 1%;而調整後的 EBITDA 為 5,800 萬美元,年減 6%。透過該平台,我們完成了 422,000 筆交易,讓超過 100 萬名客戶享受了假期,這清楚地表明了這項業務的規模和重要性。
We remain focused on optimizing profitability in cash generation while managing the ongoing mix shift between travel clubs and exchange. The travel and membership segment represents about 20% of our consolidated revenue and continues to be an important source of cash flow that supports both reinvestment and shareholder returns.
我們將繼續專注於優化現金流的獲利能力,同時管理旅行俱樂部和兌換之間持續的組合轉變。旅遊和會員業務約占我們合併收入的 20%,並且仍然是重要的現金流來源,支持再投資和股東回報。
Across the company, adjusted free cash flow continues to be the clearest proof of our model's strength and discipline as capital allocators. Through the third-quarter, adjusted free cash flow grew 23% year-over-year, and we now expect to generate approximately $500 million for the full year, converting about half of our adjusted EBITDA into cash.
在公司整體範圍內,調整後的自由現金流仍然是我們模型作為資本配置者的優勢和紀律的最清晰證明。第三季度,調整後的自由現金流年增 23%,我們現在預計全年將產生約 5 億美元的現金流,將調整後的 EBITDA 的約一半轉化為現金。
This is a powerful engine when considering our track record of consistently paying a dividend and reducing shares outstanding. During the quarter, we returned $106 million to our shareholders, including $36 million in dividends and $70 million in share repurchases.
考慮到我們一直以來持續派發股息和減少流通股數量的記錄,這是一個強大的驅動力。本季度,我們向股東返還了 1.06 億美元,其中包括 3,600 萬美元的股息和 7,000 萬美元的股票回購。
Through the third quarter, we've repurchased [210 million] of stock, representing 6% of our beginning share account, underscoring our commitment to discipline capital allocation. Our dividend remains healthy, providing a compelling and reliable to return. Combined with repurchases, this has driven meaningful total shareholder return year-to-date. We ended the quarter with net leverage of 3.3 times, down from 3.4 times a year ago, and we now expect leverage to be below 3.3 times by year end.
第三季至今,我們已回購了 2.1 億股股票,占我們期初股票帳戶的 6%,凸顯了我們對資本配置紀律的承諾。我們的股息依然穩健,為投資者提供了可觀且可靠的回報。加上股票回購,這推動了今年迄今股東總回報的顯著成長。本季末淨槓桿率為 3.3 倍,低於一年前的 3.4 倍,我們現在預計到年底槓桿率將低於 3.3 倍。
Our liquidity position remains strong. Nearing $1.1 billion including $240 million in cash and $815 million available on our revolver. During the quarter we issued $500 million in new bonds priced at 6.125%. This pricing was slightly favorable to the maturing bond that we refinanced.
我們的流動性狀況依然強勁。資產總額接近 11 億美元,其中包括 2.4 億美元現金和 8.15 億美元循環信貸額度。本季我們發行了 5 億美元的新債券,定價為 6.125%。這個定價略微有利於我們再融資的到期債券。
And last week, we completed our third and final ABS transaction of the year, raising $300 million at a 98% advance rate and a 4.78% coupon. Our most efficient ABS execution this year. As CFO, my focus remains clearly and fully aligned with our long-term strategy, driving sustainable growth, disciplined capital allocation, and a resilient balance sheet.
上週,我們完成了今年的第三筆也是最後一筆 ABS 交易,以 98% 的預付款率和 4.78% 的票息籌集了 3 億美元。我們今年執行效率最高的ABS專案。作為財務官,我的工作重點始終與我們的長期策略保持清晰一致的方向,即推動可持續成長、嚴格的資本配置和穩健的資產負債表。
First, we invest in growth, including new brands, our sales infrastructure, and digital platforms to enhance customer experiences and engagement. Second, we return capital to shareholders through a compelling dividend and a consistent share repurchase program. And third, we maintain balance sheet strength and flexibility, positioning us well to both invest in growth and navigate a wide range of economic environments with confidence.
首先,我們投資於成長,包括新品牌、銷售基礎設施和數位平台,以增強客戶體驗和參與度。其次,我們透過優厚的股利和持續的股票回購計畫向股東返還資本。第三,我們保持了資產負債表的穩健性和靈活性,這使我們能夠自信地投資於成長並應對各種經濟環境。
Turning to our outlook for the year. For the full year, we're raising the midpoint of our adjusted EBITDA guidance to $975 million with a new range of $965 million to $985 million reflecting our strong third quarter performance.
接下來展望一下今年的情況。鑑於我們第三季強勁的業績表現,我們將全年調整後 EBITDA 預期中位數上調至 9.75 億美元,新的預期範圍為 9.65 億美元至 9.85 億美元。
With the momentum in our vacation ownership business, we're also increasing our gross VOI sales midpoint with a new range of $2.45 billion to $2.50 billion and raising our full year VPG to between $3,250 to $3,275. While third quarter results were ahead of expectation, our outlook for the remainder of the year reflects a disciplined approach to forecasting and the seasonality we typically see in the fourth quarter.
憑藉度假所有權業務的良好勢頭,我們也提高了總 VOI 銷售額的中點,新的範圍為 24.5 億美元至 25 億美元,並將全年 VPG 提高到 3250 美元至 3275 美元之間。雖然第三季業績超出預期,但我們對今年剩餘時間的展望反映了我們嚴謹的預測方法以及我們在第四季通常看到的季節性因素。
To sum up, the third quarter was a strong one for Travel + Leisure. As we close out the year, we'll keep the pedal down, focused on disciplined capital allocation, maximizing free cash flow per share, and positioning the company for sustained compounding growth.
總而言之,《旅遊與休閒》雜誌第三季表現強勁。在年底之際,我們將繼續全力以赴,專注於嚴格的資本配置,最大限度地提高每股自由現金流,並使公司實現持續的複合成長。
The fundamentals of our business are solid, and our teams are executing with discipline as we prepare for the opportunities ahead in 2026. I also want to thank our associates across Travel + Leisure for their continued focus and execution.
我們業務的基本面很穩固,我們的團隊正以嚴謹的態度執行各項任務,為迎接 2026 年的機會做好準備。我還要感謝《旅遊與休閒》雜誌全體同事的持續專注與優秀執行。
They are the driving force behind our results, and their dedication gives us confidence as we close out the year and position the company for continued success in 2026.
他們是我們取得成就的驅動力,他們的奉獻精神讓我們在年末之際充滿信心,並為公司在 2026 年的持續成功做好準備。
Kevin, we can now open the line for questions.
凱文,現在可以開始接受提問了。
Operator
Operator
Certainly. I'll be conducting a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)
當然。我將進行問答環節。(操作說明)
Chris Woronka, Deutsche Bank.
克里斯‧沃隆卡,德意志銀行。
Chris Woronka - Analyst
Chris Woronka - Analyst
Hey, good morning, thanks for taking the question and congratulations on a nice quarter.
嘿,早安,謝謝你回答這個問題,也祝賀你本季業績出色。
So something to start off, Michael, maybe it's a little bit of perspective from you. Your VOI business continues to perform very well, certainly this quarter was -- we have our expectations. What do you think's driving that given the fact that we hear about, we hear about some consumer weakness in certain pockets and maybe it's just a demographic situation.
邁克爾,首先,或許你可以從你的角度談談我的看法。您的 VOI 業務持續表現非常出色,本季尤其如此—我們對此表示預期。你認為造成這種情況的原因是什麼?我們聽到某些地區的消費者情緒疲軟,也許這只是人口結構的問題。
If you guys -- if you can maybe remind us, your income levels and things like that and what you've changed in the business to try to not only get that higher income customer but also pivots you make if needed to, address situations where you maybe see pockets of hesitation among buyers? Thanks.
如果你們能提醒我們一下,你們的收入水平等等,以及你們為了獲得更高收入的客戶而在業務上做出的改變,還有你們在必要時做出的調整,以解決買家猶豫不決的情況?謝謝。
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, good morning, Chris, yes, I would agree with you, it was a very strong quarter from top to bottom. I think -- I would say there's two elements that are really driving continued strong performance on VOI as it relates to the strength of the consumer beyond the fact that we just see leisure travel as remaining consistent.
早上好,克里斯。是的,我同意你的看法,這確實是一個非常強勁的季度,從上到下都表現出色。我認為——我認為有兩個因素真正推動了VOI的持續強勁表現,這與消費者的消費能力密切相關,而不僅僅是休閒旅遊保持穩定這一事實。
We've dedicated, over the last few years, a lot of energy, that includes operating capital, that includes digital work and the platform to make getting on vacation and enjoying the resorts people want to enjoy easier to do and with less friction, and that's why we refer to the app implementation. That's why we talk about the new partnerships we're developing and our consumers enjoying experiences, not just in the resort, but the ability to attach other experiences while they're on vacation. All of that's driving our satisfaction scores.
過去幾年,我們投入了大量精力,包括營運資金、數位化工作和平台,旨在讓人們更容易、更順暢地享受度假勝地,這就是我們提到應用程式實施的原因。這就是為什麼我們要談論我們正在發展的新合作關係,以及我們的消費者不僅在度假村內享受體驗,而且還能在度假期間體驗其他活動。所有這些因素都影響著我們的滿意度分數。
And as we said back pre-COVID, I remember one of our -- in one of our calls, we said, when people get on vacation, they enjoy it, they love their vacations and enjoy the product and end up buying more. We are really seeing that compounding effect of all the investments we've put in over the year and the direction we're heading play into our consumer and their performance, especially amongst our owner base.
正如我們在新冠疫情之前所說,我記得在一次電話會議上,我們說過,人們度假時,他們很享受假期,他們熱愛假期,喜歡產品,最終會購買更多產品。我們確實看到了過去一年來所有投資的複利效應,以及我們前進的方向對我們的消費者及其業績的影響,尤其是在我們的業主群體中。
Secondly is, you're correct, we've, over the last five years, dedicated to fine-tuning our credit requirements and upgrading our overall consumer profile. Our FICO scores are over 740 in the last quarter. They have increased dramatically over the last five years. Our household income, which used to hover right around $100,000, maybe slightly below, have increased to around $115,000 household income.
其次,您說得對,在過去的五年裡,我們一直致力於完善信貸需求並提升整體客戶素質。我們上季的FICO信用評分超過740分。在過去五年裡,它們的增幅非常顯著。我們家的收入以前徘徊在 10 萬美元左右,可能略低於這個數額,現在已經增加到 11.5 萬美元左右。
Ultimately, we're trying to make our model as efficient as possible from top to bottom. And part of that effort was really fine-tuning our demographics, which we think we've successfully done. Now the last leg of that is to expand our product offering so that we capture more addressable market, and that's the work that we'll be doing over the next two years, and we've already started with our brand expansion.
最終,我們的目標是使我們的模型從上到下盡可能有效率。而這項工作的一部分,就是對我們的人口統計進行精細調整,我們認為我們已經成功做到了這一點。現在,最後階段是擴大我們的產品供應,以便我們能夠吸引更多目標市場,這是我們未來兩年要完成的工作,我們已經開始了品牌擴張。
Chris Woronka - Analyst
Chris Woronka - Analyst
Okay, thanks, Michael, very helpful perspective, Just as a follow-up, you guys, last quarter, I think, announced this other Sports Illustrated development in Chicago. And I know that that's an existing hotel property. Can you maybe talk a little bit about whether we see a lot of additional opportunities there, specifically on that.
好的,謝謝邁克爾,非常有幫助的見解。還有一個後續問題,你們上個季度好像宣布了《體育畫報》在芝加哥的另一個發展計畫。我知道那是一家現有的飯店。您能否談談我們是否看到那裡還有很多其他機會,特別是在這方面?
I know you're going to continue on Margaritaville and now a [new] Sports Illustrated, specifically. Do you see a lot of these kind of urban hotels, maybe it's a brand issue or something else where you guys can come in and convert to timeshare. If you could maybe just give us a little bit of a sense as to kind of economics. I think you're going with the asset-light model upfront of those. But a little color on that would be very helpful. Thanks.
我知道你還會繼續在 Margaritaville 工作,而且現在還要特別關注《體育畫報》的新版。你是不是常常看到這類城市飯店?也許是品牌問題或其他原因,你們可以趁機把它們改造成分時度假酒店。如果您能給我們簡單介紹一下經濟學方面的情況就太好了。我認為你們一開始就打算採用輕資產模式。如果能加入一些細節描述就更好了。謝謝。
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Absolutely, and we're very excited about Sports Illustrated. I know there would be some competitive commentary amongst other urban locations, but we know that Chicago is a great sports town, one of the best in the US. And there are many others that definitely have our eye.
當然,我們對《體育畫報》感到非常興奮。我知道其他城市可能會有一些競爭性的評論,但我們都知道芝加哥是一個很棒的運動城市,也是美國最好的運動城市之一。還有許多其他公司也引起了我們的關注。
And given where the real estate market is, we mentioned in the last call, I think, the last two calls, that at this point in time in the cycle, conversions are a better opportunity for us and for many people than greenfield development.
鑑於房地產市場的現狀,我們在上次電話會議(我想是最近兩次電話會議)中都提到過,在目前的周期階段,改建項目對我們和許多人來說比新建項目更有優勢。
We've now got three resorts announced for Sports Illustrated. We will start sales by the end of this year, as we previously committed to, and no change to that. But at this stage, we'll go where the market leads us, and it's too great urban locations. And in the last two examples, conversions.
目前我們已經公佈了三家將與《體育畫報》合作的度假村。我們將按照先前的承諾,在今年年底前開始銷售,這一點不會改變。但現階段,我們將順應市場走向,而市場正引領我們走向優越的城市地段。最後兩個例子都是轉換。
I will, though, come back to our original outlook on Sports Illustrated is we see lots of opportunities in college towns. We continue to pursue those options. And just because our last two are in urban destinations, don't think that, that's a shift in strategy. We will be announcing, over the upcoming quarters, more college locations because we think that's a tremendous market as well.
不過,我還是要回到我們最初對《運動畫刊》的看法,那就是我們在大學城看到了很多機會。我們將繼續探索這些方案。雖然我們最後兩家店都位於城市地區,但不要以為這是我們策略的轉變。接下來幾個季度,我們將宣布更多大學附近的招生地點,因為我們認為大學也是一個巨大的市場。
Chris Woronka - Analyst
Chris Woronka - Analyst
Okay, very good. Thanks Michael.
好的,很好。謝謝你,麥可。
Operator
Operator
Ben Chaiken, Mizuho.
本·柴肯,瑞穗。
Ben Chaiken - Analyst
Ben Chaiken - Analyst
Hey, how's it going? Thanks a lot. I guess one thing that stuck out is traction in the travel club transactions up 30%. I guess, what did you change there, if anything? And then I'm asking this question in the context of '24 transactions being down one. So is it a comp dynamic in 3Q? It seems more than that. Or is it a sequential acceleration in the top line? Thanks.
嘿,你好嗎?多謝。我覺得最突出的一點是,旅行俱樂部交易量增加了 30%。我想問的是,你做了哪些改變?如果有的話。然後,我提出這個問題的背景是「24 筆交易減少了一筆」。那麼,第三季是否存在競爭動態?似乎不只如此。或者說,這是頂部線路的順序加速嗎?謝謝。
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Good morning, Ben. Yeah, it's compounding momentum and work over the last three years. We spend a lot of time speaking about travel and membership and that we've refined strategies there. And one of the efforts that our team did in 2024 was get back to the profit producing clubs, the ones that we felt that we could accelerate due to the loyalty and transaction propensity within those clubs. We made that change in '24. We've spent a lot of effort on marketing and getting the commitment from those clubs.
早安,本。是的,這是過去三年來不斷累積的勢頭和努力的結果。我們花了很多時間討論旅行和會員事宜,並且我們已經完善了這方面的策略。2024 年,我們團隊的努力之一就是重新回到那些有獲利的俱樂部,我們認為我們可以加速發展這些俱樂部,因為這些俱樂部擁有忠誠度和交易傾向。我們在 2024 年做出了這項改變。我們在市場推廣和獲得這些俱樂部的承諾方面投入了大量精力。
What you're seeing in Q3 of this year, as you mentioned, 30% acceleration in transactions on a year-to-year basis. The revenue per transaction has come down, but I think most would agree that's a normal component of the cycle of growth is, your first objective is to drive transactions, plus 30%. Our revenue per transaction went down 12%, and ultimately, revenue is starting to accelerate very nicely.
正如您所提到的,今年第三季交易量年增了 30%。每筆交易的收入有所下降,但我認為大多數人都會同意,這是成長週期中一個正常的組成部分,你的首要目標是推動交易,然後成長 30%。我們的單筆交易收入下降了 12%,但最終,收入開始穩定成長。
So it's just really the outcome of multiyear work of getting -- finding out in this new business for us, what works and what doesn't. And credit to the team for finally finding those books. The next leg of this effort will be about getting the margins up. But for now, we're super pleased with the transaction growth we saw in the travel club business.
所以,這其實是我們多年來在這個新業務中不斷摸索,最終發現哪些方法有效、哪些無效的結果。感謝團隊最終找到了這些書。這項工作的下一步重點是提高利潤率。但就目前而言,我們對旅行俱樂部業務的交易成長感到非常滿意。
Ben Chaiken - Analyst
Ben Chaiken - Analyst
Got it. That's helpful. And then on SI, you have Chicago, which you referenced on the call. You've got Alabama, Nashville. I believe both Nashville and Chicago are conversions, if I'm not mistaken.
知道了。那很有幫助。然後,關於SI,還有芝加哥,你在電話會議上也提到了它。你有阿拉巴馬州,納許維爾。如果我沒記錯的話,納許維爾和芝加哥都是改建的。
I guess, could you remind us what is going to open first between those two? And then do I have the mechanics correct? As soon as one of those are converted, that puts inventory in the trust and you're able to sell access to the entire portfolio. Am I thinking about that correctly?
請問您可否提醒我們一下,這兩家店會先開?那麼我的理解是否正確呢?一旦其中一項轉換完成,就會將庫存放入信託,然後您就可以出售整個投資組合的存取權。我這樣理解對嗎?
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
You are. So I'll start with the second part of that question first is it is one of the big benefits of conversions is once it's registered, and we can put a conversion into the club. Sports Illustrated in Nashville will open late first quarter, early second of next year. It will go through a conversion. And then we will keep Chicago open during the transition, but it will open as a rebranded property at the -- toward the end of 2026.
你是。所以我先回答這個問題的第二部分,轉換的一大好處是,一旦註冊成功,我們就可以把轉換結果加入俱樂部。《體育畫報》納許維爾分社將於明年第一季末或第二季初開幕。它將經歷一次轉換。然後,我們將在過渡期間保持芝加哥的開放,但它將在 2026 年底左右以重新命名的酒店重新開業。
So both will be 2026 branded. And occupancy sales will begin in Nashville at the end of this year, and then sales will begin in Chicago at the beginning of next year.
所以兩者都將帶有2026年的標誌。納許維爾的入住銷售將於今年年底開始,芝加哥的入住銷售將於明年年初開始。
Ben Chaiken - Analyst
Ben Chaiken - Analyst
And so people could buy as soon as the Nashville inventory is in there, then you could in theory buy Alabama, if you were -- happen to be Alabama fan?
所以,一旦納許維爾的庫存到貨,人們就可以購買,理論上,如果你碰巧是阿拉巴馬隊的球迷,你就可以購買阿拉巴馬隊的庫存了?
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
You'll be a member of the -- you'll be a member of the Sports Illustrated Club at that point, which will ensure eventual access to Alabama. We will not be selling football week in Alabama yet because we're not registered there. And so you can become a member of the club, but Alabama's specific reservations and priorities will be at the time that it's registered and available for sale.
屆時您將成為—您將成為《體育畫報》俱樂部的會員,這將確保您最終有機會進入阿拉巴馬州。由於我們尚未在阿拉巴馬州註冊,因此我們暫時不會在阿拉巴馬州銷售橄欖球週產品。所以你可以成為俱樂部的會員,但阿拉巴馬州的特定預訂和優先事項將在其註冊並可供出售時確定。
Ben Chaiken - Analyst
Ben Chaiken - Analyst
Do you think about these as -- without getting maybe too specific, but it just because I think there's a lot of variability. But historically, when we thought about new dots on the map, whether that's -- what's called a resort with a sales center. What -- relative to a traditional timeshare opening, like where do you think this lands? Is this you have higher expectations, lower expectations because of seasonality? Just like what's the thought process there? If you could maybe generalize it.
你覺得這些情況怎麼樣? ——可能不想說得太具體,但我覺得這其中有很多變數。但從歷史上看,當我們想到地圖上的新點時,無論是——所謂的帶有銷售中心的度假村。相對於傳統的度假分時專案而言,你認為這個專案處於什麼位置?這是因為你的期望值較高,還是因為季節性因素而降低?他們當時的思考過程是怎麼樣的?如果可以的話,請盡量概括一下。
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
I have a different perception on seasonality than some of the questions we received. I think sports towns, especially, have changed from weakened base to a far less seasonal market. And I remember when people used to say Myrtle Beach was a 4-month market, and now it's -- now it's an 11-month market, if not a 12-month market.
我對季節性的看法與我們收到的一些問題有所不同。我認為,尤其是體育城市,已經從基礎薄弱的市場轉變為季節性遠不那麼強的市場。我記得以前人們常說默特爾比奇的旅遊市場只有 4 個月,而現在——現在它已經是 11 個月甚至 12 個月的旅遊市場了。
I think sports towns, the alumni traveling back to universities are very similar to year-round destinations. And I do expect to see it. I think it will actually be less seasonal than ski locations where you get these peak Presidents Week and Christmas, New Year's. You're going to get more of those peak weeks at universities, and you have all kinds of reasons to return to a college town or a place like Chicago between the Cubs, the White Sox, Black Hawk, Bears, lots of reasons to -- the WNBA team now that's there, lots of reasons to return to Chicago year-round.
我認為體育城市,以及校友返校旅遊的情況,與全年旅遊目的地非常相似。我期待看到它。我認為它實際上受季節性影響較小,不像滑雪勝地會在總統日、聖誕節和新年期間迎來旅遊高峰。大學裡會有更多這樣的高峰期,而且你有各種各樣的理由回到大學城,或者像芝加哥這樣的地方,因為有小熊隊、白襪隊、黑鷹隊、熊隊,還有很多理由——現在那裡還有WNBA球隊,有很多理由讓你一年四季都回到芝加哥。
So I think they're going to be less seasonal. I think they're going to be highly attractive. And one of the components we really like about the launch of both Sports Illustrated and Eddie Bauer, and what we've seen in the core is it's going to start in '26 to '27, adding new owners into our equation at a much higher rate than our existing core brands do on a percentage basis, not on an absolute basis.
所以我認為它們的季節性會降低。我認為它們會非常吸引人。我們非常喜歡《體育畫報》和 Eddie Bauer 的推出,而且我們在核心業務中也看到了這一點,那就是從 2026 年到 2027 年,我們將以比現有核心品牌更高的比例(而不是絕對值)將新所有者納入我們的系統。
Ben Chaiken - Analyst
Ben Chaiken - Analyst
Got it. Thank you.
知道了。謝謝。
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Ben.
謝謝你,本。
Operator
Operator
Patrick Scholes, Truist Securities.
Patrick Scholes,Truist Securities。
Patrick Scholes - Analyst
Patrick Scholes - Analyst
Great, thank you, everyone, and good morning. Taking a look at the statistics on your most recent securitization, it looks like the weighted coupon was the lowest in several years. In that regard, I recall two or three years ago, you were talking about a 2 to 3 -- around a 3% initial EBITDA headwind to growth when you would start the year.
太好了,謝謝大家,早安。查看您最近一次證券化的統計數據,似乎加權票息是近年來最低的。在這方面,我記得兩三年前,你曾說過,年初時 EBITDA 成長會面臨 2% 到 3% 左右的阻力。
How do you think, given the lowering the last couple of years of that coupon and especially the most recent one for next year, would you have a headwind to start the year, a tailwind? Or would it be sort of neutral to flat? Thank you.
考慮到過去幾年優惠券的下調,尤其是明年優惠券的最新下調,您認為今年開局會是順風還是逆風?或者說,它應該算是比較中性或平淡的風格?謝謝。
Erik Hoag - Chief Financial Officer
Erik Hoag - Chief Financial Officer
Hey Patrick, good morning. Thanks for the question. Last week's ABS transaction priced out at 4.78%, and that's really on the heels of our July transaction that came in at [5, 12] so rates have continued to head downward. We are starting to see the weighted average cost of funds on the loan portfolio begin to turn. So year-over-year, our weighted average cost of funds in the third quarter was down about 15 basis points. So it's modest, but we are starting to see a benefit, and it's going to set up a multiyear tailwind as spreads continue to move our way.
嘿,派崔克,早安。謝謝你的提問。上週的 ABS 交易定價為 4.78%,這緊隨我們 7 月 [5, 12] 的交易之後,因此利率繼續下降。我們開始看到貸款組合的加權平均資金成本開始出現轉變。因此,與去年同期相比,我們第三季的加權平均資金成本下降了約 15 個基點。雖然幅度不大,但我們開始看到好處,而且隨著利差繼續朝著我們有利的方向發展,這將帶來多年的順風。
Patrick Scholes - Analyst
Patrick Scholes - Analyst
Okay. And then my next question, I believe you continue to target increasing new owner sales. With new owners, you do, historically, to start off with, get a lower margin on that sale. How would you expect that shift for next year, assuming you do continue that increasing new owners. How would you expect that to impact your 2026 margins and expectations for loan loss provision? Thank you.
好的。那麼我的下一個問題是,我相信你們的目標仍然是增加新車主的銷售。從歷史經驗來看,對於新業主來說,一開始的銷售利潤率確實會較低。假設你繼續增加新所有者,你預計明年情況會如何變化?您預計這將對您 2026 年的利潤率和貸款損失準備金預期產生怎樣的影響?謝謝。
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, let me first agree with you, Patrick, on the margin question is that as you seek to drive new owners, those come with a lower margin, and therefore, against your owner sales do provide a little bit of margin pressure.
首先,派崔克,我同意你關於利潤率問題的看法,當你努力吸引新車主時,他們的利潤率會降低,因此,現有車主的銷售確實會給你的利潤率帶來一些壓力。
Let's just zoom out to our overall strategic outlook for new owner sales. We want to keep those in the 30s. They're going to fluctuate from the high 30s as a percent of sales to the low 30s in any given quarter. But as long as they stay in that range, we feel comfortable that we've shown over the past several years, and we'll continue to execute against a margin range that looks like it did -- like it has looked at this entire 2025 into the 20s and drifting up towards 25% this last quarter.
讓我們把視角拉遠,看看新業主銷售的整體策略前景。我們希望將他們的年齡控制在30歲左右。在任何季度,它們佔銷售額的百分比都會在 30% 以上到 30% 以下波動。但只要利潤率保持在那個範圍內,我們就有信心,就像過去幾年我們所展現的那樣,我們將繼續按照之前的利潤率範圍執行——就像2025年全年利潤率一直保持在20%左右,並在上個季度逐漸上升到25%一樣。
So I think you're right in the assumption. You're right in the reality on how it plays out. But I think we've a, proven; and b, we'll remain disciplined to keep margins in that sort of 22% to 25% range as we drive new owner growth. New owners are the lifeblood of the future of our business. And we think with these new brands that will -- we are leaning into that very clearly, while staying within our capital allocation on an operating and inventory basis.
所以我認為你的假設是正確的。你說的很對,事情的最終結果確實如此。但我認為我們已經證明了這一點;而且,在推動新所有者成長的同時,我們將繼續保持紀律,將利潤率保持在 22% 到 25% 的範圍內。新東家是我們企業未來發展的命脈。我們認為,隨著這些新品牌的推出,我們將——我們非常明確地朝著這個方向努力——同時,我們將保持在營運和庫存方面的資本配置範圍內。
And we -- so we think we can balance margins, new owner growth and capital allocation effectively, and we've considered that in our -- both this year guidance and as we start to think about 2026.
因此,我們認為我們可以有效地平衡利潤率、新所有者成長和資本配置,並且我們在今年的業績指引以及我們開始考慮 2026 年的業績時都考慮到了這一點。
Patrick Scholes - Analyst
Patrick Scholes - Analyst
Okay, thank you.
好的,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(操作說明)
Brandt Montour, Barclays.
Brandt Montour,巴克萊銀行。
Brandt Montour - Analyst
Brandt Montour - Analyst
Hey, good morning, everybody, and thanks for taking my questions. So just the first one. I don't remember -- or I don't know if you said this or I missed it. But could you just dig into new -- specifically new owner close rates or -- and or sort of new owner demand trends in the quarter? Thanks.
大家好,早安,感謝各位回答我的問題。所以只有第一個。我不記得了——或者我不知道你是否說過這句話,還是我錯過了。但您能否深入研究本季的新房成交率,或是新房需求趨勢?謝謝。
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
No, we haven't spent any time on it so far, so happy to jump into that. New owners in the quarter were 31% of sales. We saw overall VPG on a year-on-year basis increase, which is a great sign. It shows that the momentum is there for new owner business.
不,我們之前還沒有在這方面花過時間,所以很高興能直接投入其中。本季新業主佔銷售額的 31%。我們看到整體 VPG 年比有所增長,這是一個好兆頭。這顯示新業主企業的發展勢頭良好。
I think you'll recall that over the last year, we've talked quite a bit about calling our marketing programs to create more efficient new owner marketing. We begin to lap that in Q4 of this year. So what you've seen throughout this year is increase in tour flow quarter-on-quarter from negative in Q1 to 2 consecutive quarters of increases around 2% to 3%.
我想您應該還記得,在過去一年裡,我們一直在討論如何改進我們的行銷計劃,以創造更有效率的新業主行銷。我們將在今年第四季開始超越這個數字。所以,今年以來,我們看到的是旅遊流量逐季成長,從第一季的負成長到連續兩季成長約 2% 至 3%。
You're going to see that accelerate in Q4, and that is that's a very positive momentum. So bottom line, new owner, VPG is up, slightly below what our long-term target is for Q3, but that's just the result of a number of factors of how we change new owners and owner mix over the past year. But really excited about what Q4 tour growth is going to be.
你會看到這一趨勢在第四季度加速發展,這是一個非常積極的勢頭。總之,新東家 VPG 有所上升,略低於我們第三季度的長期目標,但這只是過去一年中我們更換新東家和東家組合等諸多因素共同作用的結果。但我真的非常期待第四季巡迴業務的成長。
And ultimately, the partnerships that we've announced throughout this year, which should go back and I won't list them all here, but we've continued to find new partnerships that support that new owner story as we get into 2026. But yes, Q3 was sort of flattish to last year, but we'd expect acceleration as we get into Q4 with VPGs raising year-on-year.
最後,我們今年宣布的合作關係(具體細節可以追溯到更早的時候,我就不在這裡一一列舉了),我們一直在尋找新的合作夥伴,以支持我們在 2026 年迎來新東家的故事。沒錯,第三季與去年同期相比略顯平淡,但我們預期隨著第四季VPG年上升,成長速度將會加快。
Brandt Montour - Analyst
Brandt Montour - Analyst
Okay. That's super helpful. Thanks for that. And then just a quick follow-up on the guidance for the fourth quarter. You guys had a really healthy beat in the third quarter. You didn't -- you only flowed through about half of that to the full year.
好的。這太有幫助了。謝謝。最後,我想快速補充一下第四季度業績指引的資訊。你們在第三節打出了非常漂亮的節拍。你沒有——你只完成了全年大約一半的進度。
I think the prepared commentary was discipline around approaching -- or disciplined approach to the forecasting. I guess that's what you kind of meant by that. So in the fourth -- is there anything that you want to highlight in terms of why the fourth quarter implied guide would be slightly below prior or is it just sort of conservatism?
我認為事先準備好的評論體現了嚴謹的分析方法——或者說,體現了嚴謹的預測方法。我想這就是你的意思。那麼在第四季——您有什麼想強調的,為什麼第四季的預期業績會略低於前期,還是只是出於保守考慮?
Erik Hoag - Chief Financial Officer
Erik Hoag - Chief Financial Officer
Brandt, thanks for the question. So to your point, we did beat the midpoint of Q3 EBITDA by 11. We raised the full year low end by 10. So if you -- so the implied fourth quarter metrics are 8% growth in gross VOI sales, VPGs that are approaching $3,300, and EBITDA growth of roughly 2%.
布蘭特,謝謝你的提問。所以,正如您所說,我們第三季 EBITDA 的中位數比預期高出 11%。我們將全年最低值提高了 10%。因此,如果——那麼隱含的第四季度指標是:VOI 銷售總額成長 8%,VPG 接近 3,300 美元,EBITDA 成長約 2%。
So let me just double-click on the 2% EBITDA growth for a second, which I think is the heart of your question first. First, we've got a strong year-over-year comp from the fourth quarter '24, where VPGs were also near $3,300.
那麼,讓我先雙擊一下 2% 的 EBITDA 成長率,我認為這才是你問題的核心。首先,我們有一個強勁的同比數據,與 2024 年第四季相比,當時的 VPG 也接近 3300 美元。
Secondly, we're making incremental investments in new brands, which does include some level of uncertainty. And then the third point, our fourth quarter reflects the normal cadence of variable comp true-ups as we close out a really strong year for TNL. So we're comfortable with where the guidance sits.
其次,我們正在對新品牌進行逐步投資,這其中確實存在一定程度的不確定性。第三點,我們的第四季反映了可變補償調整的正常節奏,因為 TNL 度過了非常強勁的一年。所以我們對目前的指導方針感到滿意。
We think it's measured, we think it's achievable and we think it reflects the environment that we're operating in.
我們認為這個目標很合理,我們認為這個目標可以實現,我們認為這個目標反映了我們所處的環境。
Brandt Montour - Analyst
Brandt Montour - Analyst
Okay, great. Thanks, Mike. Thanks, Erik.
好的,太好了。謝謝你,麥克。謝謝你,埃里克。
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks Brent.
謝謝布倫特。
Operator
Operator
Ian Zaffino, Oppenheimer.
伊恩·扎菲諾,奧本海默。
Ian Zaffino - Analyst
Ian Zaffino - Analyst
Thank you very much. Just wanted to go back to [VO] for a second and maybe walk through kind of where you saw some strength maybe on a regional basis, was there any areas that were a little bit softer? Or do you think you've kind of seen just broad-based demand kind of across the system and across your sales centers? Thanks.
非常感謝。我想再回到[VO]話題,簡單聊聊你認為哪些地方比較強勢,哪些地方比較弱?或者您認為您已經看到整個系統和各個銷售中心都出現了廣泛的需求?謝謝。
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Good morning, Ian. Yes, the strength is less about a region and more about a segment. Our owner performance in Q3 was outstanding. Our VPGs were near all-time highs. The performance across all of our regions and all of our teams was just exceptional. And I want to congratulate our teams on what is really a standout quarter.
早上好,伊恩。是的,實力與其說是取決於某個地區,不如說是取決於某個細分市場。第三季度,我們業主的業績表現非常出色。我們的VPG值接近歷史最高水準。我們所有地區和所有團隊的表現都非常出色。我還要祝賀我們的團隊,這真是一個出色的季度。
But as good as our new owner VPGs were, especially compared to prior year, being up, the performance around the owner side of the equation was truly stand out. And I don't think we ambled into that performance, meaning it just happened.
儘管我們新業主的 VPG 表現不錯,尤其是與前一年相比有所增長,但業主方面的表現才是真正突出的。而且我不認為我們是偶然地達到那種效果的,也就是說,它不是自然而然發生的。
Now there is work throughout the Travel + Leisure portfolio from our systems, our ability for owners to book to -- our events team, which are now trying, as I mentioned earlier, in resort experience to in-market experience, and I could lay out a number of different areas where that continues to be a very strong performer for our owner base, and it's what owners want.
現在,從我們的系統、業主預訂功能到我們的活動團隊,整個旅遊休閒產品組合都在進行相關工作。正如我之前提到的,我們的活動團隊正在努力將度假村體驗提升到市場體驗。我可以列出許多不同的領域,這些領域對我們的業主群體來說仍然表現非常出色,而且這正是業主想要的。
They want experience as we hear it in the headlines every single day. And instead of reading it and not leaning into it, we've leaned into these past few years up-ticking our technology and up-ticking our experience. I'll give you a perfect example. As an owner myself, I used to book by calling in and making my reservation. Two months ago, I booked my spring 2026 ski vacation. And from point of opening my app to booking was under five minutes. And in my case, there was no human interaction.
正如我們每天在新聞頭條上看到的那樣,他們想要的是經驗。我們沒有隻是閱讀而不去採納,而是積極擁抱這些理念,在過去幾年不斷提升我們的技術和經驗。我給你舉個完美的例子。作為業主,我以前都是打電話預訂的。兩個月前,我預訂了2026年春季的滑雪假期。從打開應用程式到完成預訂,只花了不到五分鐘。就我而言,沒有任何人際互動。
I found my availability. I chose my dates and I booked and received a confirmation in under five minutes, which for those who know me is record time. So if you can multiply that by 500,000-plus Club Wyndham owners and then hearing our WorldMark launch of the app, which was just last week and the downloads are already into the thousands, shows that owners are appreciating what we're doing from a technology, and more importantly, using it.
我找到了我的空閒時間。我選定了日期,預訂後不到五分鐘就收到了確認訊息,了解我的人都知道,這可是破紀錄的速度。所以,如果你把這個數字乘以超過 50 萬名溫德姆俱樂部業主,然後再聽聽我們上週在 WorldMark 上推出的應用程序,下載量已經達到數千次,這表明業主們很欣賞我們在技術方面所做的工作,更重要的是,他們正在使用它。
Ian Zaffino - Analyst
Ian Zaffino - Analyst
Okay. Thanks. And then as a follow-up, I kind of want to just delve into travel membership a little bit. Kind of given -- I guess the different paths to two pieces are following, call it, where do we think the mix in this business will ultimately be, maybe on a revenue and also profitability, just given the margin disparity.
好的。謝謝。然後,作為後續,我想稍微深入探討一下旅行會員制。算是意料之中——我猜通往兩塊地的不同路徑正在遵循,姑且稱之為,我們認為這項業務最終的組合會是什麼樣,也許是基於收入和盈利能力,考慮到利潤率的差異。
And then maybe can you just remind us maybe what the strategic value of the exchange business is at this point, just given that sort of the VO business is doing very well, and I don't know if it's just being hidden a little bit by some of the underperformance of that, the travel membership business, maybe specifically the exchange business. So a little color there would be helpful, maybe kind of strategic kind of thoughts. Thanks.
那麼,您能否提醒我們一下,鑑於虛擬旅行業務目前發展得非常好,交換業務的策略價值究竟是什麼?我不知道這是否是因為旅行會員業務(特別是交換業務)的某些業務表現不佳而掩蓋了交換業務的價值。所以,加點色彩會很有幫助,也許可以加入一些策略性的想法。謝謝。
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sure. And let's start with our performance in Q3 was a sequential improvement on the year-on-year performance compared to the first half of the year. So that team continues to innovate and think of new ways to grow the business or maintain the business. And I want to give a lot of credit to them for the way they worked these first nine months of the year.
當然。首先,我們第三季的業績較上半年有所提升。因此,團隊不斷創新,思考發展業務或維持業務的新方法。我非常讚賞他們在今年前九個月的工作表現。
Make no mistake, when we started down this path in '18, '19, this was a purely exchange business, and we saw the structural decline in the exchange business due to what's happening in the industry. The industry is growing, but the consolidation of the industry means that the demand for exchange transactions is pressured.
毫無疑問,當我們在 2018 年、2019 年開始走這條路時,這完全是一項外匯交易業務,我們看到了由於行業現狀而導致的外匯交易業務的結構性衰退。該行業正在發展,但行業的整合意味著外匯交易的需求面臨壓力。
Instead of waiting around for that just to endure the pressure, our team went out, developed a travel club business, took some hits early in '21, '22 when expectations weren't what we thought they would be. And it showed resiliency to begin growing that business, again, as we heard through the 30% transaction growth.
與其坐等壓力降臨,我們的團隊主動出擊,發展了旅遊俱樂部業務,在 2021 年和 2022 年初遭遇了一些打擊,因為當時的預期與我們想像的並不相符。正如我們從 30% 的交易成長中聽到的那樣,該公司展現出了強大的韌性,再次開始發展業務。
So the way that all is pretext to the answer to your question, Ian, is that the vast majority of the EBITDA in this space, over 80%, is due to the exchange business. So that structural decline can't be at this stage, fully offset by the performance of the travel club side.
所以,伊恩,這一切都是為了回答你的問題而做的鋪墊,那就是,這個領域超過 80% 的 EBITDA 都來自交易所業務。因此,現階段這種結構性衰退還不能完全被旅行俱樂部的表現所抵銷。
But it definitely mitigates the challenges there. With that said, our transactions were -- on exchange were modestly down in Q3. EBITDA was modestly down on the exchange side, while the travel club business performed well and showing that it can grow on that side of the equation.
但這無疑緩解了那裡的挑戰。儘管如此,我們在交易所的交易量在第三季略有下降。交易所業務的 EBITDA 略有下降,而旅行俱樂部業務表現良好,表明該業務可以在這一方面實現成長。
Strategic value is very clear. We're over $200 million of EBITDA in that segment, closer to $250 million. The margins are still extremely healthy into the [30], provides great free cash flow that, as Erik walked you through, can be deployed in very shareholder-accretive manners. And at this stage due to the nature of the business, it doesn't require a lot of capital investment, although we are putting money into the booking platform there as well.
戰略價值非常明確。該業務板塊的 EBITDA 超過 2 億美元,接近 2.5 億美元。利潤率在 [30] 年仍然非常健康,提供了巨大的自由現金流,正如 Erik 向你展示的那樣,這些現金流可以以非常有利於股東的方式進行部署。現階段,由於業務性質,不需要大量的資本投資,儘管我們也在向那裡的預訂平台投入資金。
So I think it has a lot of integration, value, provides us scale, over 3 million of members with good economic value that we're utilizing to return value to shareholders in many different aspects.
所以我認為它具有很強的整合性和價值,為我們提供了規模優勢,擁有超過 300 萬會員,具有良好的經濟價值,我們正在利用這些價值在許多方面為股東創造回報。
Ian Zaffino - Analyst
Ian Zaffino - Analyst
All right. Thank you very much.
好的。非常感謝。
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Ian.
謝謝你,伊恩。
Operator
Operator
David Katz, Jefferies.
David Katz,傑富瑞集團。
David Katz - Analyst
David Katz - Analyst
Morning, everybody. Thanks for taking my question. When -- if we can maybe zoom out and take a little longer-term view here. When we look at the VOI business and the new brands that you're adding, not looking for a guide here, but how do you think about the earnings power of those incremental brands that you're adding to the portfolio?
大家早安。謝謝您回答我的問題。什麼時候──如果我們能把視角拉遠一些,從更長遠的角度來看這個問題的話。當我們審視 VOI 業務以及您正在添加的新品牌時,我並不是想尋求指導,但您如何看待您添加到產品組合中的這些新增品牌的盈利能力?
And assuming that the existing core brand is still able to grow, is that a fair assumption? And how do we think about what the earnings power of these could ultimately prove to be five years out or so?
假設現有核心品牌仍能持續發展,這個假設是否合理?那麼,我們該如何看待這些項目在未來五年左右的獲利能力呢?
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, David, your question really gets to the heart of our strategic outlook for the next three to five years. Let me first say, we absolutely believe our core brands, Club Wyndham, WorldMark, Shell and Margaritaville will continue to grow. We're committed to them. And as you saw in Q3 and in 2025, they continue to grow, and we expect them to grow over the next few years.
大衛,你的問題確實觸及了我們未來三到五年戰略展望的核心。首先我想說,我們絕對相信我們的核心品牌,溫德姆俱樂部、WorldMark、殼牌和瑪格麗塔維爾,將會繼續成長。我們對他們負責。正如您在第三季和 2025 年所看到的,它們持續成長,我們預計它們在未來幾年將繼續成長。
But the strategic approach that we have is not to collect brands for the sake of collecting brands. We're in a direct marketing industry. We're in a direct marketing business. And therefore, addressable market is super critical to our success. Through our partnership with Authentic Brands, we've been able to bring to market, Sports Illustrated.
但我們的策略方針並非為了收集品牌而收集品牌。我們身處直銷業。我們從事的是直銷業務。因此,目標市場對我們的成功至關重要。透過與 Authentic Brands 的合作,我們得以將《體育畫報》推向市場。
We've been able now to bring to market, Eddie Bauer, which is another one of Authentic's brands. We've reinvigorated Margaritaville and we've acquired Accor Vacation Club. All of those are as much about affinity, loyalty databases and increasing our addressable market as they are of filling out a brand portfolio or a brand bar.
我們現在能夠將 Eddie Bauer 推向市場,這是 Authentic 旗下的另一個品牌。我們重振了瑪格麗塔維爾,並收購了雅高度假俱樂部。所有這些都與建立親和力、忠誠度資料庫以及擴大我們的目標市場息息相關,就像它們與完善品牌組合或品牌長條圖一樣重要。
In this business, you've heard over the years, our successful relationship on Blue Thread has allowed us to grow VPG at a much higher rate for new owners than your general open market, and we believe the same is replicable in each of these new brands.
多年來,您已經了解到,我們在 Blue Thread 平台上的成功合作使我們能夠以比一般公開市場更高的速度為新所有者實現 VPG 增長,我們相信這種增長速度可以在每個新品牌中復制。
Now as it relates to not providing guidance, but to give a general direction is we think each of these brands can be worth at least $200 million of top line revenue and more depending on the brand, depending on the database. We think each of those will ultimately be a -- for the first five years, a new owner, proportionately higher play.
至於不提供具體指導,而是給出一個大致方向,我們認為這些品牌每個都能帶來至少 2 億美元的營收,而且根據品牌和資料庫的不同,營收可能會更高。我們認為,在前五年,每位新老闆的投入都會隨之增加。
And then as time goes on, primarily an affinity and owner upgrade model similar to our current model. So long term, definitely smaller than where we are today with our Club Wyndham and WorldMark brand and more targeted to an affinity owner upgrade model. And I think our starting hope for each of those brands would be around $200 million of sales.
然後隨著時間的推移,主要採用類似我們目前模式的會員升級模式。從長遠來看,規模肯定比我們目前擁有的 Club Wyndham 和 WorldMark 品牌小,而且更專注於會員升級模式。我認為我們對每個品牌的初始銷售額期望約為 2 億美元。
But I think I used the same time last time. We'll get some points on the board with Sports Illustrated, get some learnings and then we'll probably come out with more clear long-term guidance later in 2026.
但我認為我上次用的時間也是一樣。我們將從《體育畫報》獲得一些分數,吸取一些經驗教訓,然後我們可能會在 2026 年稍後發布更明確的長期指導。
David Katz - Analyst
David Katz - Analyst
And just one follow-up detail, and I apologize if I missed it. Did you give us -- did you size the Blue Thread sales in the quarter or within the guide for the year? And do you have kind of an aspirational level that, that could be out over five years?
最後還有一個細節要補充,如果我遺漏了,請見諒。您有沒有告訴我們—您是按季度還是按年度目標來估算 Blue Thread 的銷售額?您是否有一個五年內可以實現的遠大目標?
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. We didn't. You did not miss that. Blue Thread represents around 3% to 4% of our total company sales. It's an important part of our new owner business. The story in Q3 is very similar than it has been over the last few quarters, which it's stabilized at around $100 million of annual sales. And that really comes as a result of -- I think we finished last year at $96 million, and we're generally on the same track for this year.
是的。我們沒有。你沒錯過這件事。Blue Thread 的銷售額約占我們公司總銷售額的 3% 至 4%。這是我們新東家業務的重要組成部分。第三季的情況與過去幾季非常相似,年銷售額穩定在 1 億美元左右。這實際上是由於——我認為我們去年的收入是 9,600 萬美元,而且我們今年的整體目標也大致相同。
What we're seeing in that front is that there's been a dramatic shift in voice to digital booking, which is a major source of our lead generation, which is [stalled] it. So we haven't give three to five-year guidance. I used to talk about $200 million.
我們看到,這方面的情況是,語音預訂已經發生了巨大的轉變,轉向了數位預訂,而數位預訂是我們主要的潛在客戶來源,但目前這方面進展緩慢。因此,我們沒有給出三到五年的業績指引。我以前常說的是2億美元。
I think that's far more challenged than it used to be due to the voice to digital shift. But we work very closely with our brethren up in New Jersey to find new avenues to reinvigorate the growth. This isn't unique to us. I think -- well, I can't speak for anyone else, but this switch from voice to digital booking is something you've heard in the hotel industry across the board for years, and this is one application of it.
我認為,由於語音通訊向數位通訊的轉變,這種情況比以前更具挑戰性。但我們與新澤西州的兄弟們密切合作,尋找新的途徑來重振成長。這並非我們獨有的問題。我認為——好吧,我不能代表其他人,但從語音預訂轉向數位預訂是酒店業多年來一直在普遍發生的現象,而這只是其中的一個應用。
I think on the positive side of that is despite that sort of shift as you saw in Q3, as you've seen throughout this year and as you see in our revised upward guidance on VOI sales, our teams continue to find ways to find new veins of growth, exploit them while still working hard on areas that we think there's still a lot more live to grow, which is back to your point, the Blue Thread.
我認為積極的一面是,儘管如您在第三季度、今年以來以及我們修訂後的VOI銷售額上調預期中所看到的這種轉變,但我們的團隊仍在不斷尋找新的增長點,並加以利用,同時繼續努力在我們認為仍有很大增長空間的領域深耕,這又回到了您所說的“藍線”問題。
David Katz - Analyst
David Katz - Analyst
Okay, thank you.
好的,謝謝。
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, David.
謝謝你,大衛。
Operator
Operator
Lizzie Dove, Goldman Sachs.
莉齊·多芙,高盛集團。
Lizzie Dove - Analyst
Lizzie Dove - Analyst
Hi there, thanks so much for taking the question. I just wanted to touch on the kind of loan loss provision side of things. You mentioned upfront, there's no signs of deterioration there despite some of the headlines we've seen in other industries in the quarter. You reiterated the 21%. I'm curious how you see the kind of longer-term opportunity there for those to kind of come down over time with some of the initiatives you've been doing?
您好,非常感謝您回答這個問題。我只是想簡單談談貸款損失準備金這方面的問題。正如你前面提到的,儘管本季其他行業的一些新聞報導令人擔憂,但目前還沒有任何惡化的跡象。你重申了21%這個數字。我很好奇,您如何看待您一直在推行的一些舉措,這些舉措能為這些人帶來長期的發展機遇,讓他們隨著時間的推移逐漸減少收入?
Erik Hoag - Chief Financial Officer
Erik Hoag - Chief Financial Officer
Hey, good morning, Lizzie, so maybe just provide -- maybe I'll contextualize where we are from a loan loss provision perspective. We started the year with a full year provision rate at 20%. We saw some elevated delinquencies to start the year. We changed the full year to 21% with the first quarter call. The second quarter call, we continued to move in line with our historical default curve.
嗨,莉齊,早安。那麼,或許我可以──或許我可以從貸款損失準備金的角度來解釋我們目前的情況。年初我們設定的全年撥備率為 20%。年初時,我們發現了一些較高的違約率。我們在第一季財報電話會議上將全年成長率改為 21%。第二季財報電話會議上,我們繼續依照歷史違約曲線推進。
The third quarter continued to move in the same direction as well. So -- and then as we stare at the fourth quarter, we're starting to see an inflection of year-over-year provision to start to trend downward. So the long way to get to your question is we would expect that our longer-term provision rate to settle back in, in the upper teens. And I think that, that's what you'll see here in the fourth quarter.
第三季也繼續朝著同樣的方向發展。所以——當我們展望第四季時,我們開始看到同比撥備出現轉折,並開始呈現下降趨勢。所以,要回答你的問題,我們預期長期撥備率將穩定在十幾個百分點。我認為,這就是你們在第四季會看到的。
Lizzie Dove - Analyst
Lizzie Dove - Analyst
Got it. That's helpful. Thank you. And then kind of a related question. I'm sorry if I missed this. But I'm curious on the booking window. I think earlier in the year, you'd mentioned it come down a little bit, maybe like starting off the year like 130 days down to 109 last quarter. Any kind of update you'd share there in terms of that booking window and how it's progressed?
知道了。那很有幫助。謝謝。然後還有一個相關的問題。如果我錯過了這條訊息,我很抱歉。但我很好奇預訂窗口的情況。我想年初的時候,你提到這個數字會略有下降,例如年初的時候是 130 天,而上個季度是 109 天。關於預訂窗口的進度,您有什麼最新消息可以分享嗎?
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, two aspects of that. Booking window hasn't changed from that number we last shared. It's right in that range. A little closer than historical, but not meaningful enough for us to be concerned. Candidly, it's commentary we hear all across hospitality, that people are waiting just a little bit longer.
是的,有兩個面向。預訂窗口期與我們上次公佈的日期相同,沒有變更。正好在這個範圍內。比歷史真實情況略近一些,但意義不大,無需我們擔憂。坦白說,我們在餐飲業各處都能聽到這樣的評價:人們需要再多等一會兒。
The second aspect of that, which we did mention, but didn't dwell on it is that booking pace in Q4 looks very consistent to what we saw last year, which is -- we view as a very positive sign for the outlook into the end of the year.
第二個方面,我們確實提到過,但沒有深入探討,那就是第四季度的預訂速度看起來與去年同期非常一致,我們認為這對年底的前景來說是一個非常積極的信號。
Lizzie Dove - Analyst
Lizzie Dove - Analyst
Great thank you.
非常感謝。
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Lizzie.
謝謝你,莉齊。
Operator
Operator
Stephen Grambling, Morgan Stanley.
史蒂芬‧格林布林,摩根士丹利。
Stephen Grambling - Analyst
Stephen Grambling - Analyst
Hey, thanks. Just one more follow-up on the provision. At this point, the provision compared to the gross financing receivables is kind of near peak-ish levels as you kind of referenced outside of maybe the GSE despite better FICO scores. And historically, it seems like we've seen step-ups if the macro arose. But given we're already elevated, how would you think about the sensitivity to the provision in different backdrops? Like could we already be provisioning above and so there might be less? Or -- any thoughts would be helpful.
嘿,謝謝。關於該條款,還有一點需要補充說明。目前,撥備與融資應收款總額之比已接近峰值水平,正如您在 GSE 之外所提到的那樣,儘管 FICO 評分有所提高。從歷史來看,如果宏觀經濟情勢好轉,我們似乎就會看到經濟狀況好轉。但鑑於我們已經處於較高水平,您認為在不同背景下,這種做法的敏感度會如何?例如,我們是否已經在上面做了準備,所以實際所需數量可能較少?或者——任何想法都會很有幫助。
Erik Hoag - Chief Financial Officer
Erik Hoag - Chief Financial Officer
Yes. I think we've got a pretty good sense of where we think the provision is going to be, Steve. I think when you look across the quarters of the year, historically, the second quarter and the third quarter are above the full year average, first quarter and the fourth quarter below.
是的。史蒂夫,我想我們已經對供應情況的走向有了相當清晰的認識。我認為,從歷史數據來看,從全年各季度來看,第二季和第三季高於全年平均水平,第一季和第四季低於全年平均水平。
To the question from Lizzie, we expect the fourth quarter provision to be the low watermark in 2025 as we exit heading towards 2026.
對於 Lizzie 提出的問題,我們預計 2025 年第四季撥備將是最低點,因為我們將邁向 2026 年。
Stephen Grambling - Analyst
Stephen Grambling - Analyst
Great. And maybe one other follow-up. I realize that it's still early for 2026, but I imagine you're still probably in the process of trying to make some implementations or changes around pricing for the managed clubs. Any initial thoughts on where you think kind of year-over-year pricing or HOA fees could end up as we think about kind of flowing through that more perpetuity like [B-Stream]?
偉大的。或許還有後續問題。我知道現在距離 2026 年還早,但我認為你們可能還在嘗試對託管俱樂部的定價進行一些實施或更改。您初步認為,隨著我們考慮將這些費用永久傳遞下去,年度價格或業主協會費用最終可能會達到什麼水準?[B流]?
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Great question, Stephen, because you often get questions on price, but we think value is more driven in this space through those annual fees. Keep in mind that 80% of our owners have fully paid off their ownership. So their cost of vacation is those maintenance fees.
史蒂芬,你問得好,因為你經常會收到關於價格的問題,但我們認為在這個領域,價值更多是透過這些年費來體現的。請記住,我們80%的車主已經付清了所有款項。所以他們的度假成本就是這些維修費用。
I think the answer to your question is we want to stick right around the CPI level. Although we don't know what CPI will be, we don't expect any outsized changes for 2026. But I will -- I can -- I would say today that in 2026 and beyond, especially given the last four to five years of inflation, maintenance fees, HOA dues, however we want to term them, is a super important focus for us to make sure that we're providing as much value and leveraging our scale to give our owners as much value as possible.
我認為你問題的答案是,我們希望將價格維持在 CPI 水平附近。雖然我們不知道 2026 年的 CPI 會是多少,但我們預計不會有任何重大的變化。但我會——我可以——今天我想說,在 2026 年及以後,尤其是在過去四五年通貨膨脹的情況下,維護費、業主協會會費(無論我們如何稱呼它們)對我們來說是一個極其重要的關注點,以確保我們提供盡可能多的價值,並利用我們的規模為業主提供盡可能多的價值。
We've done a lot on technology and maintenance fees will -- is the other piece of that value that we're going to be super focused on going forward. So that what we want to return to our owners is surprises to the beneficial side as opposed to surprise to the more expensive side.
我們在技術和維護費用方面做了很多工作——這是我們未來將重點關注的另一個價值。因此,我們希望回饋給所有者的是有益方面的驚喜,而不是昂貴方面的驚喜。
Stephen Grambling - Analyst
Stephen Grambling - Analyst
Great. Thank you.
偉大的。謝謝。
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Stephen.
謝謝你,史蒂芬。
Operator
Operator
Patrick Scholes, Truist Securities.
Patrick Scholes,Truist Securities。
Patrick Scholes - Analyst
Patrick Scholes - Analyst
Great. Just a quick follow-up question here. I've noticed some online message board discussion about closing a handful of your legacy resorts. If in fact that's true, it's not something you typically see. If in fact that is happening, I'm curious what the rationale for that may be. And what, if any, might be the financial impact to your company from [apps]? thank you.
偉大的。這裡還有一個後續問題。我注意到一些網路論壇上有人討論關閉貴公司旗下的一些老牌度假村。如果情況屬實,那也是不常見的現象。如果情況確實如此,我很想知道背後的原因是什麼。那麼,這可能會對貴公司造成哪些財務影響(如果有的話)呢?[應用]?謝謝。
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
We'll, Patrick you're about probably 30 minutes or an hour ahead of us. You'll see it as part of our disclosures exactly this today as part of our disclosures in our Q. This is really, I would call it, resort portfolio maintenance, and I would describe what we're doing as a catch-up to what we probably should have been doing over the decade -- last decade of what all hospitality companies do, which is you look at your demand, high and low demand locations, same with satisfaction scores and add new inventory with better demand, better seasonality, newer construction into your system, and we've announced double-digit number of those resorts over the last few years.
派崔克,你大概比我們領先30分鐘到1小時。您將在今天的季度報告中看到相關資訊。這實際上是,我稱之為度假村組合維護,我會將我們正在做的事情描述為我們在過去十年中本應做的事情的彌補——所有酒店公司過去十年都在做的事情,那就是查看需求,高需求和低需求地點,以及滿意度評分,並將需求更好、季節性更好、新建的度假村納入我們的系統。在過去幾年中,我們已經宣布了兩位數數量的此類度假村。
And on an annual basis, look at your portfolio and pull out the ones that no longer have that demand are primarily renters or low owner occupancy or low satisfaction scores. And that's exactly what we're doing. It's a relatively small amount, I would say, it's maybe 10 or 12 this year, somewhere in that range. I cannot be specific because we haven't finished the process and therefore, the number isn't finalized, but it's a relatively small amount.
每年都要審視你的投資組合,剔除那些不再有需求的房產,例如主要面向租戶、業主自住率低或滿意度低的房產。而這正是我們正在做的。數量相對較少,今年大概是 10 到 12,差不多在這個範圍內。我無法給出具體數字,因為我們還沒有完成整個流程,因此最終數字尚未確定,但金額相對較小。
It's a catch-up year. And I think the other big implication or awareness that is part of this decision making is we've been in business a very long time, decades. And as resorts move along, your normal room renovation gets into bigger items such as infrastructure, things like rooms and bigger expense items. And what this also greatly helps to do is avoid any significant special assessments, which is to the benefit of the owners and the overall system.
今年是追趕之年。我認為,這決策過程中另一個重要的影響因素或認知是,我們已經經營者多年,幾十年了。隨著度假村的發展,普通的客房翻新會擴展到基礎設施、客房等更大的項目以及更大的支出項目。這樣做也極大地有助於避免任何重大的特別評估,這對業主和整個系統都有好處。
So again, I would say this is a very normal process of bringing new resorts into the systems, all the things we've announced in our press releases and taking out the ones who've reached their natural useful life. And we're providing a lot of optionality for those owners to get back into our system or exit fully. But yeah, I think this is normal maintenance and a little bit of a catch-up that we probably should have been doing over the last decade, and others continue to do.
所以,我再次強調,這是一個非常正常的流程,即將新的度假村引入系統,所有我們在新聞稿中宣布的內容,以及將那些已經達到自然使用壽命的度假村移除。我們為這些所有者提供了許多選擇,讓他們可以重新加入我們的系統或完全退出。但是,我認為這是正常的維護工作,也是我們過去十年應該做的一些追趕工作,而其他人也一直在做這些工作。
Patrick Scholes - Analyst
Patrick Scholes - Analyst
Okay. Good color. So fair to think that one of the reasons perhaps for closing these down, if you do have unsold inventory or which is inventory you own, you would not be on the hook for a special assessment. So might save money there by closing the stats that --
好的。顏色不錯。因此,可以合理地認為,關閉這些門市的原因之一可能是,如果你有未售出的庫存,或者庫存是你擁有的,那麼你就不必承擔特別評估的責任。所以,關閉這些統計數據或許能省錢。--
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
That's one way to think about it. I think it's only the partial answer as well. The answer I originally gave around overall resort portfolio is primary. The second is, yes, whether it's an individual owner or us as a developer, absolutely what you said is accurate.
這是其中一種思考方式。我認為這只是部分答案。我最初給出的關於整體度假村組合的答案是首要的。第二點是,無論是個人業主還是我們開發商,您所說的話都完全正確。
The flip side of that is some of these have sales locations. So where you might be thinking, oh, well, this is just an economic plus. There's no economic minus. If any of these resorts do have sales locations, that's the balancing minus. So when you net it all out, the clear benefit is a better, newer, less seasonal, higher demanded, higher occupancy portfolio.
另一方面,其中一些產品設有銷售點。所以你可能會想,哦,這只是經濟上的好處。沒有經濟上的負面影響。如果這些度假村中有任何一家設有銷售點,那就是平衡減項。因此,綜合所有因素來看,顯而易見的優勢是擁有一個更好、更新、季節性更小、需求更高、入住率更高的房產組合。
And there are economic downstream effects, which we don't -- we have an estimated or presented the estimation. But there is one plus and one minus, which is less sales at those locations and less carry cost. And that's a balancing that we'll go through, should these resorts ultimately end up close. And if they do, then we'll provide an update on that. I would expect in our Q4 call and as part of any 2026 guidance.
而且還有一些經濟上的下游影響,我們沒有這些影響——我們只是進行了估算或提出了估算結果。但這樣做有一個優點和一個缺點,那就是這些地方的銷售量較少,庫存成本也較低。如果這些度假村最終位置接近,我們就需要權衡利弊。如果他們真的這麼做了,我們會及時更新相關資訊。我預計在第四季財報電話會議以及任何 2026 年業績指引中提及。
Patrick Scholes - Analyst
Patrick Scholes - Analyst
Okay, thank you very much.
好的,非常感謝。
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
All right. Thanks, Patrick.
好的。謝謝你,派崔克。
Operator
Operator
We reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over for any further closing comments.
我們的問答環節結束了。我想把發言權交還給各位,請大家再做總結發言。
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Brown - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Kevin, and thanks again for joining us today. Our third quarter results highlight the strength of our business model, the discipline of our execution and the opportunities ahead. Most importantly, none of this would be possible without the dedication of our associates who deliver exceptional experiences to our owners and members every day.
謝謝你,凱文,再次感謝你今天加入我們。我們第三季的業績凸顯了我們商業模式的優勢、執行的嚴謹性以及未來的機會。最重要的是,如果沒有我們員工的奉獻精神,這一切都不可能實現,他們每天都為我們的業主和會員提供卓越的體驗。
We remain focused on creating value for our customers, associates and shareholders. We look forward to speaking to you throughout the quarter at conferences and on our fourth quarter call in February. Thanks, everyone. Have a great day.
我們將繼續專注於為我們的客戶、合作夥伴和股東創造價值。我們期待在本季的會議以及二月的第四季電話會議上與您交流。謝謝大家。祝你有美好的一天。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.
謝謝。今天的電話會議和網路直播到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路了,祝您有美好的一天。感謝您今天的參與。