Travel + Leisure Co (TNL) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings and welcome to the Travel and Leisure second-quarter 2025 earnings conference hall webcast. At this time, all participants are listening on mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation.

大家好，歡迎收看《旅遊與休閒》2025 年第二季收益會議大廳網路直播。此時，所有參與者都處於聆聽模式。正式演講結束後將進行問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It's not my pleasure to introduce your host Eric Hoag, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中。我很榮幸向您介紹主持人、財務長 Eric Hoag。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Kevin. Good morning to everyone. Before we begin, we would like to remind you that our discussions today will include forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements, and the forward-looking statements made today are effective only as of today. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise these statements. The factors that could cause actual results to differ are discussed in our SEC filings and in our press release accompanying the earnings call.

謝謝你，凱文。大家早安。在我們開始之前，我們想提醒您，我們今天的討論將包括前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中所示的結果有重大差異，並且今天所做的前瞻性陳述僅在今天有效。我們不承擔公開更新或修改這些聲明的義務。我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件和收益電話會議附帶的新聞稿中討論了可能導致實際結果不同的因素。

You can find a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures discussed in today's call in the earnings press release available on the Investor Relations website. This morning, Michael Brown, our President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide an overview of the second quarter results and our longer-term growth strategy.

您可以在投資者關係網站上的收益新聞稿中找到今天電話會議上討論的非 GAAP 財務指標的對帳表。今天上午，我們的總裁兼執行長邁克爾布朗將概述第二季度的業績和我們的長期成長策略。

And then I'll provide greater detail on the quarter, our balance sheet and outlook for the rest of the year. Following our prepared remarks, we'll open up the call for questions. Finally, all comparisons today are to the same period of the prior year, unless specifically stated.

然後，我將提供有關本季、我們的資產負債表和今年剩餘時間展望的更多詳細資訊。在我們準備好發言之後，我們將開始提問。最後，除非特別說明，今天的所有比較均與去年同期進行。

With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Michael Brown.

說完這些，我很高興將電話轉給麥可布朗。

Good morning, and thanks for joining us. Travel and Leisure delivered another solid quarter of revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth. Our strong adjusted EBITDA or free cash flow allowed us to return $100 million and $7 million of capital to shareholders in the quarter.

早安，感謝您加入我們。旅遊休閒業務再創季度佳績，營收和調整後 EBITDA 均穩健成長。我們強勁的調整後 EBITDA 或自由現金流使我們在本季向股東返還了 1 億美元和 700 萬美元的資本。

This performance underscores the strength of our brands, the resilience of leisure travel and our owner base, and the disciplined execution of our strategy. Against the dynamic macroeconomic backdrop, our teams remain focused on driving growth, managing costs and delivering exceptional experiences to our owners, members and guests.

這項業績凸顯了我們品牌的實力、休閒旅遊和業主群體的韌性以及我們策略的嚴格執行。在動態的宏觀經濟背景下，我們的團隊仍然專注於推動成長、管理成本並為我們的業主、會員和客人提供卓越的體驗。

In the quarter, we generated over $1 billion in revenue, $250 million in adjusted EBITDA and $1.65 in adjusted earnings per share, all up year-over-year. Our results were driven by continued strength in our Vacation Ownership business, which more than offset softer performance in travel and membership.

本季度，我們的營收超過 10 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 2.5 億美元，調整後每股收益為 1.65 美元，均較去年同期成長。我們的業績得益於度假所有權業務的持續強勁成長，足以抵消旅行和會員業務表現的疲軟。

We saw a healthy year-over-year growth in VOI sales, with gains in both tour flow and volume per guest. Notably, volume per guest of $3.251 was above the high end of our guidance range and adjusted EBITDA margin remained consistent with the prior year at 25%. These results support the core foundation of our business, a resilient customer base built around leisure travel, a compelling value proposition and consistent returns to our shareholders.

我們看到 VOI 銷售額年增穩健，旅遊流量和每位客人的數量都有所增加。值得注意的是，每位客人的消費金額為 3.251 美元，高於我們指導範圍的高端，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率與上年持平，為 25%。這些結果支撐了我們業務的核心基礎、圍繞休閒旅遊建立的有彈性的客戶群、引人注目的價值主張以及對股東的持續回報。

Demand remained strong across our core timeshare business. We see encouraging engagement from consumers as tour growth improved sequentially from the first quarter and 3% compared to 2024. The resilience of our platform is directly related to the quality of our customers.

我們的核心分時度假業務的需求依然強勁。我們看到消費者的參與度令人鼓舞，因為旅遊成長率較第一季有所提高，與 2024 年相比成長了 3%。我們平台的彈性與客戶的品質直接相關。

There's been plenty of noise around the economy, but from where we sit, our consumers are healthy and prioritizing travel. Spending on leisure travel is expected to grow mid-single digits per year over the next five years.

經濟方面有很多噪音，但從我們的角度來看，我們的消費者是健康的，並且優先考慮旅行。預計未來五年休閒旅遊支出每年將以個位數中等速度成長。

Our business is built on recurring behavior and less so on short-term trends, making us less sensitive to the macro economy as we benefit from a highly visible recurring revenue base. More than 75% of our revenue is tied to predictable sources like owner upgrades, financing and management fees, which leads to a nearly $20 billion pipeline of future potential revenue over 10 years.

我們的業務建立在重複行為而非短期趨勢的基礎上，這使得我們對宏觀經濟的敏感度較低，因為我們受益於高度可見的經常性收入基礎。我們 75% 以上的收入與業主升級、融資和管理費等可預測的來源相關，這將在未來 10 年內帶來近 200 億美元的潛在收入。

We see our strategy play out through our bookings, sales tours and owner engagement metrics. Our owners are traveling, supporting what we've long believed that vacations are not discretionary, they're essential. We have seen no significant change in buyer behavior related to booking pace, VPG and portfolio performance.

我們透過預訂、銷售旅遊和業主參與度指標看到我們的策略發揮作用。我們的業主正在旅行，這支持了我們長期以來的觀點：假期不是可自由支配的，而是必不可少的。我們沒有看到與預訂速度、VPG 和投資組合表現相關的買家行為有顯著變化。

Booking pace is relatively consistent to the prior year. And with a 109-day average booking window, we have clear visibility into the remainder of the year. VPG performance continues to be strong, and our portfolio remains stable. Our owners know what they are getting. They've already planned for it and 80% of them have fully paid for their ownership. Today, we serve more than 800,000 owner families with an average tenure of 17 years.

預訂速度與上年基本一致。平均預訂窗口期為 109 天，因此我們可以清楚地了解今年剩餘時間的情況。VPG 表現持續強勁，我們的投資組合保持穩定。我們的業主知道他們得到了什麼。他們已經做好了計劃，其中 80% 的人已經全額支付了房屋付款。如今，我們為超過 80 萬個業主家庭提供服務，平均業主任期為 17 年。

Here are some key characteristics of our owner base. The average household income for our owners is approximately $118,000. The average FICO score of our $3 billion portfolio is above 720. Since 2020, we have seen FICO loans declined 4 points as a percentage of the overall portfolio. The average FICO score of new originations is 746.

以下是我們業主群體的一些主要特徵。我們業主的平均家庭收入約為 118,000 美元。我們 30 億美元投資組合的平均 FICO 分數高於 720。自 2020 年以來，我們發現 FICO 貸款佔整體投資組合的百分比下降了 4 個百分點。新貸款機構的平均 FICO 分數為 746。

This is an over 20-point increase since we updated our credit quality standards. Our owners take an average of four to five vacations annually with more than 50% of their vacation time being utilized through their ownership. We are seeing consistent interest from younger generations with over 65% of new buyers coming from Gen-X, millennial and Gen Z households. Our product delivers exactly what these new owners want, flexibility, convenience and personalized experiences.

自從我們更新信用品質標準以來，這一數字增加了 20 多個百分點。我們的業主每年平均度假四到五次，其中超過 50% 的假期時間用於經營其物業。我們看到年輕一代的持續興趣，超過 65% 的新買家來自 X 世代、千禧世代和 Z 世代家庭。我們的產品完全滿足了這些新業主的需求：靈活性、便利性和個人化的體驗。

During the quarter, we continued to invest in technology, marketing and product innovation to enhance the customer journey and extend our reach. Our Club Wyndham app, which offers frictionless engagement now has 162,000 downloads and accounts for 19% of bookings.

本季度，我們繼續投資於技術、行銷和產品創新，以增強客戶體驗並擴大我們的影響力。我們的 Club Wyndham 應用程式提供無摩擦互動，目前下載量已達 162,000 次，佔預訂量的 19%。

Additionally, we are preparing for the launch of our WorldMark app in Q4. We are progressing with investments in AI on our web and app channels driving recommendations for personalized experiences and seamless booking process. During the quarter, we announced an exclusive marketing partnership with Hornblower focused on creating memorable experiences for our owners as well as new owner tour generation.

此外，我們正在準備在第四季度推出我們的 WorldMark 應用程式。我們正在網路和應用管道上對人工智慧進行投資，以推動個人化體驗和無縫預訂流程的建議。在本季度，我們宣布與 Hornblower 建立獨家行銷合作夥伴關係，致力於為我們的業主以及新業主旅遊世代創造難忘的體驗。

Hornblower Group is an experience-based tourism leader across 22 destinations in the United States, Canada and the UK. Looking ahead, we are focused on growing the core vacation ownership business leveraging data and technology to enhance the customer experience across all platforms. We are taking targeted revenue and cost actions to mitigate the headwinds in our Traveler Membership segment leaving us well positioned to deliver sustainable growth and consistent returns.

Hornblower Group 是體驗式旅遊領導者，業務遍及美國、加拿大和英國的 22 個目的地。展望未來，我們將專注於發展核心度假所有權業務，並利用數據和技術來增強所有平台的客戶體驗。我們正在採取有針對性的收入和成本行動，以減輕旅行者會員部門面臨的阻力，使我們處於有利地位，實現永續成長和持續回報。

Now turning to execution on our multi-brand strategy. This strategy is not just about scale, it's about customer segment -- it's about both customer segment and geographic expansion. Our Club Wyndham and WorldMark brands will continue to be the cornerstone of our vacation ownership business, along with our Blue Thread partnership with Wyndham Hotels.

現在轉向執行我們的多品牌策略。這項策略不僅涉及規模，還涉及客戶細分——既涉及客戶細分，也涉及地理擴張。我們的 Club Wyndham 和 WorldMark 品牌以及與溫德姆酒店集團的 Blue Thread 合作夥伴關係將繼續成為我們度假所有權業務的基石。

In June, we expanded our Margaritaville footprint with a new sales location in Nashville on Broadway and a new marketing channel on the Margaritaville cruise ship. We launched and expanded the Accor Vacation Club with the formation of a new Asia-based club, the first resort is the Novotel Nusa Dua in Indonesia.

6 月份，我們擴大了瑪格麗塔維爾的業務範圍，在納許維爾百老匯設立了新的銷售點，並在瑪格麗塔維爾遊輪上建立了新的行銷管道。我們推出並擴大了雅高度假俱樂部，成立了一個新的亞洲俱樂部，第一個度假村是印尼的諾富特努沙杜瓦酒店。

And last, -- and last week, we announced our newest Sports Illustrated Resorts location in Nashville, Tennessee. Located on Music Row in the heart of Midtown just one mile from downtown, the planned resort will feature 185 units and is expected to open in the spring of 2027. These new brands will help us expand into key markets, reach new audiences and offer experiences suited to their lifestyles.

最後，上週，我們宣布了位於田納西州納許維爾的最新體育畫報度假村。度假村位於中城中心音樂街，距離市中心僅一英里，擁有 185 間房間，預計將於 2027 年春季開幕。這些新品牌將幫助我們拓展主要市場、接觸新的受眾並提供適合他們生活方式的體驗。

Our strong free cash flow allows us to invest in the right places, brand, digital and targeted inventory. We are confident these investments will continue to drive value. Alongside these investments, we continue to consistently return capital to our shareholders, through our dividend and share repurchase program. Since then, we have returned $2.7 billion to shareholders. Before I hand it over, I'd like to take a moment to welcome Erik Hoag, our new Chief Financial Officer.

我們強大的自由現金流使我們能夠投資於正確的地方、品牌、數字和目標庫存。我們相信這些投資將繼續推動價值。除了這些投資之外，我們還透過股利和股票回購計畫持續向股東返還資本。自那時起，我們已向股東返還了 27 億美元。在交接之前，我想花點時間歡迎我們的新任財務長 Erik Hoag。

Erik brings a strong background in strategy, operational finance and capital allocation. Erik has hit the ground running since he joined the company. In his first two months, he's attended five conferences and met with 49 investors over 27 meetings. I'm confident his leadership will help us continue delivering disciplined execution and long-term value for our shareholders.

Erik 在策略、營運財務和資本配置方面擁有豐富的經驗。自從加入公司以來，埃里克就開始積極工作。在前兩個月裡，他參加了五次會議，並在 27 次會議上會見了 49 位投資者。我相信他的領導將幫助我們繼續為股東提供嚴謹的執行和長期價值。

With that, I'll hand it over to Erik to walk through our financial performance and capital allocation in more detail. Erik?

接下來，我將把主題交給艾瑞克，讓他更詳細地介紹我們的財務表現和資本配置。艾瑞克？

Thanks, Michael, and good morning. Let me start by saying how excited I am to be part of Travel and Leisure. This is a company with a strong leadership team a highly recognizable brand portfolio and a resilient business model that delivers dependable cash flow and long-term value creation.

謝謝，邁克爾，早安。首先，我要說我很高興能成為《旅遊休閒》雜誌的一份子。該公司擁有強大的領導團隊、高度知名的品牌組合和靈活的商業模式，可提供可靠的現金流和長期價值創造。

In my first few months, I've been especially impressed by the financial discipline and operational focus embedded across the organization. This came through clearly in our second quarter results with strong revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth, alongside robust adjusted free cash flow.

在最初的幾個月裡，我對整個組織的財務紀律和營運重點印象特別深刻。這在我們第二季的業績中得到了明顯的體現：強勁的收入和調整後的 EBITDA 成長，以及強勁的調整後自由現金流。

I'll walk through the quarter's key drivers and highlight how we're deploying capital to drive shareholder value. Revenue for the quarter was $1.02 billion, up 3% year-over-year, driven by strong VOI volume and VPGs that exceeded our expectation.

我將介紹本季的主要驅動因素，並強調我們如何部署資本來推動股東價值。本季營收為 10.2 億美元，年成長 3%，這得益於強勁的 VOI 量和超出我們預期的 VPG。

Adjusted EBITDA was $250 million, up 2% over the prior year and at the midpoint of our guidance range. This translates to a 4% adjusted EBITDA growth for the first half of the year. Adjusted earnings per share grew 9% in the quarter, driven by strong performance in vacation ownership and the benefit from ongoing share repurchases.

調整後的 EBITDA 為 2.5 億美元，比上年增長 2%，處於我們指導範圍的中間值。這意味著今年上半年調整後的 EBITDA 成長率為 4%。本季調整後每股盈餘成長 9%，這得益於度假所有權的強勁表現以及持續股票回購帶來的好處。

Turning to the Vacation Ownership segment, our core growth engine. The business delivered accelerating revenue, rising tour flow, historically high VPGs and double-digit growth in average transaction size. Revenue grew 6% to $853 million for the quarter, driven by a 3% increase in tours and VPG of $3,251, up 7% from last year.

談到度假所有權部分，這是我們的核心成長引擎。該業務實現了收入加速成長、旅遊流量上升、VPG 創歷史新高以及平均交易規模實現兩位數成長。本季營收成長 6%，達到 8.53 億美元，這得益於旅遊業務成長 3%，VPG 達到 3,251 美元，比去年同期成長 7%。

The increase in average transaction size reflects strong consumer demand, effective upsell strategies and continued sales force productivity across our resorts. Adjusted EBITDA grew 6%, with margin performance remaining steady, underscoring the health and the consistency of the platform.

平均交易規模的增加反映了強勁的消費者需求、有效的追加銷售策略以及我們度假村持續的銷售隊伍生產力。調整後的 EBITDA 成長了 6%，利潤率表現保持穩定，凸顯了平台的健康和一致性。

We are also making disciplined progress with our inventory pipeline with several key resort projects underway to support future growth, while maintaining our capital light mix. Our loan loss provision and delinquencies were in line with expectations, and we remain on track to deliver a full year provision of 21%.

我們還在庫存管道方面取得了有序進展，正在進行幾個重要的度假村項目以支持未來的成長，同時保持我們的輕資本組合。我們的貸款損失準備金和拖欠率符合預期，我們仍有望實現 21% 的全年準備金。

Credit quality remained strong in the quarter with new origination FICO scores above 740, which reflects our consistent and disciplined underwriting approach. Our second quarter delinquency trends moderated after the uptick we noted last quarter. With no signs of material deterioration we're confident in the portfolio's strength.

本季信用品質依然強勁，新發起 FICO 分數超過 740，這反映了我們一致且嚴謹的核保方式。在經歷了上一季的上升趨勢後，第二季的拖欠趨勢有所緩和。由於沒有出現重大惡化的跡象，我們對投資組合的實力充滿信心。

Our provision has historically ranged from the high teens to the low 20s as a percentage of VOI sales, and we see potential for this to trend below 20% over time, enhancing capital efficiency and supporting durable free cash flow.

我們的撥備佔 VOI 銷售額的比例歷來在 15% 到 20% 之間，我們認為隨著時間的推移，這一比例有可能降至 20% 以下，從而提高資本效率並支持持久的自由現金流。

In our Travel and Membership segment, revenue was $166 million for the quarter, down 6% year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA declined 11% to $55 million. The exchange business continues to face industry consolidation headwinds.

在我們的旅遊和會員部門，本季營收為 1.66 億美元，年減 6%，調整後 EBITDA 下降 11% 至 5,500 萬美元。交易所業務持續面臨產業整合的阻力。

Additionally, recent M&A activity disrupted transaction volumes from certain affiliates and was not anticipated in our original guidance. While not the sole driver of the underperformance, the impact was meaningful, and we remain focused on maximizing cash flow and operational flexibility with an emphasis on long-term shareholder value.

此外，最近的併購活動擾亂了某些附屬公司的交易量，這在我們最初的指導中沒有預料到。雖然這不是業績不佳的唯一原因，但其影響是巨大的，我們仍然專注於最大化現金流和營運靈活性，並強調長期股東價值。

Turning to cash generation and capital deployment. We generated $123 million in adjusted free cash flow and $353 million in operating cash flow in the first six months of the year, supported by strong sales efficiency, capital-efficient sales execution, and the ongoing contribution of our consumer finance portfolio.

轉向現金產生和資本部署。由於強勁的銷售效率、資本高效的銷售執行以及消費金融組合的持續貢獻，我們在今年上半年產生了 1.23 億美元的調整後自由現金流和 3.53 億美元的營運現金流。

These factors, alongside both our highly recurring revenue mix and capital-light development strategy drive consistent and dependable cash generation even in a complex macroeconomic and political environment. During the quarter, we returned $107 million of our adjusted free cash flow to shareholders, $37 million through dividends and $70 million in share repurchases, retiring more than 2% of our shares outstanding in the quarter.

這些因素，加上我們高度經常性的收入組合和輕資本發展策略，即使在複雜的宏觀經濟和政治環境下也能推動持續可靠的現金產生。本季度，我們向股東返還了 1.07 億美元的調整後自由現金流，其中 3,700 萬美元透過股息返還，7,000 萬美元透過股票回購返還，收回了本季超過 2% 的流通股。

Our capital allocation strategy remains unchanged, reinvest in high-return growth, maintain a resilient balance sheet and return excess cash to shareholders, all while preserving financial flexibility. We continue to evaluate reinvestment returns vigorously, prioritizing initiatives where we see strong IRRs, capital efficiency and clear pathways to shareholder value.

我們的資本配置策略保持不變，重新投資於高回報成長，維持有彈性的資產負債表並將多餘的現金回饋給股東，同時保持財務靈活性。我們將繼續大力評估再投資回報，優先考慮那些具有強勁內部報酬率、資本效率和清晰的股東價值途徑的舉措。

Our liquidity position remains strong. We ended the quarter with over $800 million, including $212 million of cash and cash equivalents and $596 million available on our revolver. We ended the quarter at 3.4 times levered and with normal seasonality, we expect our leverage rate to slightly increase in the third quarter and then end the year below 3.4 times. During the quarter, we amended our $1 billion revolving credit facility with improved terms.

我們的流動性狀況依然強勁。本季結束時，我們的資產超過 8 億美元，其中包括 2.12 億美元的現金和現金等價物以及 5.96 億美元的循環信貸額度。本季末我們的槓桿率為 3.4 倍，由於季節性原因，我們預計我們的槓桿率將在第三季略有上升，然後在年底降至 3.4 倍以下。在本季度，我們修改了 10 億美元的循環信貸額度，並改善了條款。

And yesterday, we completed our second ABS transaction of the year, raising $300 million at a 98% advance rate and a 5.1% coupon, the lowest we've seen since 2022. We continue to actively manage maturities and expect to refinance the $350 million note coming due in the fourth quarter.

昨天，我們完成了今年的第二筆 ABS 交易，籌集了 3 億美元，預付率為 98%，票面利率為 5.1%，這是我們自 2022 年以來見過的最低水平。我們將繼續積極管理到期債務，並預計將為第四季度到期的 3.5 億美元票據進行再融資。

Looking ahead, we continue to expect full year adjusted EBITDA to be in line with our prior guidance, supported by the strength of our vacation ownership business. We expect travel and membership to remain challenged through year-end.

展望未來，我們繼續預計全年調整後的 EBITDA 將與我們先前的預期一致，這得益於我們強勁的度假所有權業務。我們預計，到年底，旅行和會員資格仍將面臨挑戰。

That said, we are committed to executing on our core business, launching new brands, delivering strong free cash flow and allocating capital in ways that enhance shareholder value. For the third quarter, we expect travel and leisure adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $250 million to $260 million.

也就是說，我們致力於執行我們的核心業務，推出新品牌，實現強勁的自由現金流，並以提高股東價值的方式分配資本。對於第三季度，我們預計旅遊和休閒業務調整後的 EBITDA 將在 2.5 億美元至 2.6 億美元之間。

Vacation Ownership gross VOI sales are expected to be in the range of $650 million to $680 million with VPGs in the range of $3,200 to $3,250. For the full year, we continue to expect adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $955 million to $985 million, gross VOI sales between $2.4 billion to $2.5 billion and VPGs in the range of $3,200 to $3,250, an increase from our prior range of $3,050 to $3,150.

度假所有權總 VOI 銷售額預計在 6.5 億美元至 6.8 億美元之間，而 VPG 銷售額預計在 3,200 美元至 3,250 美元之間。就全年而言，我們繼續預期調整後的 EBITDA 在 9.55 億美元至 9.85 億美元之間，VOI 總銷售額在 24 億美元至 25 億美元之間，VPG 在 3,200 美元至 3,250 美元之間，高於我們先前預測的 3,050 美元至 3,150 美元。

Please refer to our earnings material for full details and underlying assumptions by segment. Thank you for your time and continued interest in Travel and Leisure. I look forward to connecting with many of you in the weeks ahead.

請參閱我們的收益資料，以了解各部分的詳細資訊和基本假設。感謝您的時間和對《旅遊休閒》的持續關注。我期待在未來幾週與你們中的許多人建立聯繫。

Kevin, we can now open the line for questions.

凱文，我們現在可以開始回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Chris Woronka, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的克里斯‧沃倫卡 (Chris Woronka)。

Hey, thanks. Good morning, everyone. Erik, welcome. We're looking forward to working with you. So I guess, Michael, maybe start with the kind of the more obvious question this quarter on the travel and membership side. I know you mentioned that there was some M&A impact with partnerships. But do you feel like visibility that segment is declining.

嘿，謝謝。大家早安。埃里克，歡迎光臨。我們期待與您合作。所以我想，邁克爾，也許可以從本季旅行和會員方面更明顯的問題開始。我知道您提到併購對合作關係產生了一些影響。但您是否覺得該部分的可見度正在下降？

It used to be very stable and predictable within $1 million or so? And if so, how confident are you that you can turn this around? Or are you in some ways, possibly considering something more strategic with that segment?

它曾經非常穩定且可預測，在 100 萬美元左右的範圍內？如果是的話，您有多大信心能夠扭轉這種局面？或者從某種程度上來說，您是否正在考慮針對該領域採取更具策略性的措施？

Good morning, Chris. let me recap Q1 or the first half of the year. So we recognize the two components of the travel of membership decline. In the organic side of the business, yes, we saw a decline as it relates to exchange transactions a conversation we've been having on this call for several years now.

早上好，克里斯。讓我回顧一下第一季或今年上半年的情況。因此，我們認識到會員旅行量下降的兩個因素。在業務的有機方面，是的，我們看到了與交換交易相關的下滑，這是我們在這次電話會議上討論過的話題，已有好幾年了。

That side of the business remains challenged through consolidation and the fact that the way bigger clubs are doing business has changed. And we've done a pretty significant job over the last few years stemming the tide of that.

由於合併以及大型俱樂部經營方式的改變，這項業務仍面臨挑戰。過去幾年來，我們為阻止這種趨勢做了大量工作。

In fact, if you remember, last year, we actually had growth in this segment. Over 50% of the decline in the first half of the year was based on this component of the business. The other piece, which Erik mentioned was there was consolidation in the space. and that impacted those related to affiliates of ours, and that obviously was an unforecasted impact in the first half of this year.

事實上，如果你還記得的話，去年我們在這個領域確實實現了成長。今年上半年超過50%的跌幅都源自於這項業務部分。埃里克提到的另一點是該領域的整合。這對我們關聯公司產生了影響，這顯然是今年上半年未預料到的影響。

As we digest that and look at new alternatives on how to address mitigate the impact of that transaction, but b, just the general trend of what's happening on exchange external exchange transactions, there's a number of measures we continue to take.

當我們消化這一點並尋找新的替代方案來減輕該交易的影響時，但 b，只是交易所外部交易發生的總體趨勢，我們將繼續採取一些措施。

We want to grow the Travel Club business, which grew 7% in Q2 as far as transactions. We continue to look at innovative ways to deploy our inventory and to grow revenue on that side of the equation. And then obviously, we manage costs associated with where our top line goes.

我們希望擴大旅行俱樂部業務，該業務在第二季的交易量增加了 7%。我們將繼續尋找創新方法來部署我們的庫存並增加這方面的收入。然後顯然，我們會管理與營收去向相關的成本。

I think we've been very clear that we understand the structural challenges of the space. But we've been very proactive over the past few years, and we will continue to look at smart strategic investments or alternatives to make sure that we're doing the right thing for this business. And creating our objective to get back to a growth trajectory over time here.

我認為我們已經非常清楚我們了解該領域的結構性挑戰。但在過去幾年中，我們一直非常積極主動，我們將繼續尋找明智的策略投資或替代方案，以確保我們為這項業務做正確的事情。我們的目標是隨著時間的推移回到成長軌跡。

Okay, thanks, Michael. Just as a follow-up. I think you mentioned a double-digit increase in average size of transaction in the quarter. A question on that is kind of in the context of financing? And how does that play into when you think about transactions getting bigger propensity to finance in the context of a lot of wealth effect that's being generated with the stock market, and maybe other forms of real estate. Does that change the calculus at all for your, I guess, your average customer in terms of that propensity to finance or what's driving that larger transaction size?

好的，謝謝，麥可。只是作為後續行動。我想您提到了本季平均交易規模實現了兩位數的成長。關於這一問題是否與融資有關？當您考慮到在股票市場和其他形式的房地產產生的大量財富效應的背景下交易獲得更大的融資傾向時，這會產生什麼影響？我想，這是否會改變您的普通客戶的融資傾向或推動交易規模擴大的因素？

Well, we haven't really seen any change to our propensity to finance. Those statistics are very consistent. I think what you've seen in the first or the second quarter -- and the reference was really a combination of two components.

嗯，我們實際上沒有看到我們的融資傾向有任何改變。這些統計數據非常一致。我認為您在第一季或第二季看到的——參考實際上是兩個組成部分的組合。

First is we continue to take measured price increases over time and that results in some component of the average transaction price increasing. The other piece is -- and we mentioned it a number of times in our prepared remarks related to experiences and greater owner engagement.

首先，我們持續測量一段時間內的價格上漲，這導致平均交易價格的某些部分上漲。另一點是——我們在與經驗和更大的業主參與度相關的準備好的發言中多次提到了這一點。

We're starting to see, we believe, some of the -- those elements come into play and the fact that people continue to buy more, four to five vacations a year through their ownership with us, about 50% of their vacation time being dedicated to us at Wyndham.

我們相信，我們開始看到其中一些因素開始發揮作用，人們繼續購買更多假期，透過我們的所有權，他們每年有四到五次假期，大約 50% 的假期時間是在溫德姆度過的。

That means people are buying more, and that's only because they're satisfied. And they're enjoying their ownership. So I think it is a combination of price increases and people just continuing to be loyal and committed to this type of leisure travel.

這意味著人們會購買更多的東西，而這只是因為他們感到滿意。他們很享受自己的所有權。所以我認為這是價格上漲和人們繼續忠誠並致力於此類休閒旅遊的結合。

Okay. Very good. Thanks, Michael.

好的。非常好。謝謝，麥可。

Lizzie Dove, Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

高盛資產管理公司的 Lizzie Dove。

Hi there, thanks for taking the question. First one just on -- you raised the VPG guidance, obviously, a really strong number in but you didn't take up gross VOI sales number. Is the assumption that maybe to growth is a little lower or something. I know telesales was a little lower in 2Q than expected. Just curious kind of what factored into that.

您好，感謝您提出這個問題。首先，您提高了 VPG 指導，顯然這是一個非常強勁的數字，但您沒有提到 VOI 總銷售額。假設成長率可能會稍微低一些或其他什麼的。我知道第二季的電話銷售量比預期略低。只是好奇是什麼因素導致了這種情況。

Really, really the factor is we wanted to recognize the very strong PPG performance in the first half of the year, and that led to our raise for the full year. I think what that really says, Lizzie, is that we have greater confidence that our gross VOI is going to be at the mid to maybe the top end of that range.

真正的原因是我們想要認識到 PPG 在上半年非常強勁的表現，這導致了我們全年的加薪。我認為這實際上表明，莉齊，我們更有信心，我們的總投資回報率將處於該範圍的中端甚至高端。

So at this point, being halfway through the year, knowing that we're entering July being one of the biggest months of the year and same with August with summer travel, we thought we were better off to simply be more confident in the top half of the range at this point, and we'll see where we are in Q3. But at the end of Q3.

因此，現在，已經過了一年的一半，我們知道我們即將進入 7 月，這是一年中最重要的月份之一，而 8 月也是夏季旅行，我們認為我們最好在此時對上半部分更有信心，我們將看看我們在第三季度的情況。但在第三季末。

But what I would say is both tours being up 3% in Q2, 2% for the first half. That's showing sequential acceleration. We were quite pleased with our Q2 tour performance, and we think that tour increase will continue in the second half. And obviously, our VPG raise of guidance reflects what we're already seeing and that we don't see the consumer weakening in the second half of the year.

但我想說的是，這兩個旅遊項目在第二季都成長了 3%，上半年成長了 2%。這表明了連續加速。我們對第二季的巡迴賽表現非常滿意，我們認為下半年巡迴賽的成長動能將會持續下去。顯然，我們的 VPG 指導上調反映了我們已經看到的情況，我們認為下半年消費者不會疲軟。

Got it. And then on the delinquency side, I think last quarter, you said March ticked up a little bit, but then you saw an improvement in April. Curious how that's been tracking over the last few months and into July. And you mentioned there may be some opportunity for the provision to kind of trend below 20% over time. Just curious, these kind of steps to get that timing would be helpful to know. Thanks.

知道了。然後在拖欠方面，我認為上個季度，您說 3 月份拖欠率略有上升，但 4 月份有所改善。好奇過去幾個月以及七月份的情況如何。您提到，隨著時間的推移，該比率可能會趨於 20% 以下。只是好奇，了解這些獲取時間的步驟會很有幫助。謝謝。

Yeah. Hey Lizzie, it's Erik Hoag. You are right. So early in the year, we saw elevated delinquencies in the first quarter. However, they did moderate near the end of the first quarter. And we saw that moderation persist through the second quarter.

是的。嘿 Lizzie，我是 Erik Hoag。你是對的。因此，今年年初，我們發現第一季的拖欠率上升。然而，第一季末，漲幅確實有所放緩。我們看到這種溫和態勢持續到了第二季。

And frankly, we've seen that moderation persist through the first half of July as well. So we have got a full year provision of 21%. We feel like we are in a good spot with that 21% provision. In terms of the longer-range comments associated with getting back into the teens from a provision perspective, there's a couple of things that I would say about that.

坦白說，我們看到這種緩和的勢頭在七月上半月也持續存在。因此，我們全年的撥備為 21%。我們覺得，21% 的規定讓我們處於有利地位。就從規定角度回到青少年時期的長期評論而言，我想說幾件事。

First, we've got disciplined underwriting quality with FICO scores above 740 and we consistently have seen improvement associated with the credit quality that's coming through the front door. And then the second piece is the adoption of our app. As we continue to focus on the usability of our products, the adoption increase that we're seeing from our customers, making it easier for customers to actually get on to vacation.

首先，我們擁有嚴格的承保質量，FICO 分數高於 740，我們持續看到與前門信用品質相關的改善。第二部分是我們應用程式的採用。隨著我們繼續關注產品的可用性，我們看到客戶的採用率不斷提高，這使得客戶實際上可以更輕鬆地享受假期。

And maybe one other comment associated with the provision 60 days in. One of the meaningful ahas that I've had, Lizzie, coming into the seat, is that -- and Mike mentioned, I've had roughly 50 investor conferences or touch points in the last two months. We've got a really robust, efficient and effective inventory recovery process. So as delinquencies occur, we have a way to get the inventory back. We're able to reprice the inventory.

也許還有一條評論與 60 天的規定有關。莉齊，就任之際，我最有意義的感悟之一就是——正如麥克提到的，在過去兩個月裡，我參加了大約 50 次投資者會議或接觸點。我們擁有真正強大、有效率且有效的庫存恢復流程。因此，當出現拖欠情況時，我們有辦法收回庫存。我們可以重新定價庫存。

We repriced the inventory at favorable rates with a cost of sales rate that's under 10%, a very effective way for us to get that back.

我們以低於 10% 的銷售成本率對庫存進行了重新定價，這是我們收回成本的一種非常有效的方法。

Patrick Scholes, Truist Securities.

帕特里克·斯科爾斯（Patrick Scholes），Truist Securities。

Hi, good morning. Welcome, Erik. Michael, I'll start off with a question for you. You touched briefly about the health of your consumer I'm wondering if you can dig down a little bit more. You talked about average household income of about 120. But I'm sure within the average, you probably have some, say, 80,000 and some 150,000 and above.

嗨，早安。歡迎光臨，埃里克。邁克爾，我首先要問你一個問題。您簡要地談到了消費者的健康狀況，我想知道您是否可以進一步深入探討。您談到的平均家庭收入約為 120。但我確信在平均值內，可能有一些，比如說 80,000 和 150,000 及以上。

Talk about sort of at the various ends of the spectrum, what are the behaviors and propensity strengths and weaknesses, any noticeable differences between the lower end and the upper end within your customer network and potential customer network?

談論頻譜的各個端，行為和傾向的優勢和劣勢是什麼，您的客戶網絡和潛在客戶網絡中的低端和高端之間有什麼明顯的差異？

Absolutely, good morning, Patrick. I'll hit this in a few different ways. And I think most simply, we get a good read on performance of our household incomes of FICOs and through our default curves. And it's one of the reasons that as we came out of COVID, we thought the most efficient way to reestablish our foundation was by raising our FICO to 640. That move, as you heard, has brought our average FICOs up to 746.

當然，早上好，派崔克。我將透過幾種不同的方式來解決這個問題。我認為最簡單的方法是，我們可以透過 FICO 和違約曲線很好地了解家庭收入的表現。這也是為什麼當我們擺脫 COVID 時，我們認為重建基礎的最有效方法是將我們的 FICO 提高到 640。正如您所聽到的，這一舉措使我們的平均 FICO 上升到了 746。

And there's clear stratification with higher performance at higher household incomes and clearly, higher delinquencies on the lower end.

而且有明顯的階層分化，家庭收入越高，償還貸款的績效就越高，而家庭收入越低，拖欠貸款的現象就越嚴重。

I think interestingly enough, there's an odd phenomenon there, one maybe not so odd is that the higher the income, the more likely there is for prepayment of the loans. So there's always this sort of balance of -- you love to hire FICO sales, and you definitely want people to pay off and get using their ownership. But you do have a drop off with the higher FICOs in the first year of ownership.

我認為有趣的是，那裡有一個奇怪的現象，也許不那麼奇怪，那就是收入越高，提前償還貸款的可能性就越大。因此，總是存在這種平衡——你喜歡僱用 FICO 銷售人員，而且你肯定希望人們付清款項並獲得他們的所有權。但是在擁有的第一年，FICO 分數越高，您的信用評分就越低。

Let me hit it this the second way of really how I look at it is the bifurcation between owners and new owners. In an economy like this with uncertainty and if the economy accelerates or decelerates, the first place you tend to see that is on the new owner side.

讓我來談談我真正看待這個問題的第二種方式，即業主和新業主之間的分歧。在這樣一個充滿不確定性的經濟環境中，如果經濟加速或減速，你首先看到的往往是新主人方面。

As we talked about in our prepared remarks, the first half of the year was super strong for our owner base, high engagement, value what they own, continue to buy more at very high rates. Our new owner business continues to be strong as well.

正如我們在準備好的發言中談到的那樣，今年上半年對於我們的業主群體來說表現非常強勁，參與度很高，重視自己所擁有的資產，並繼續以非常高的價格購買更多資產。我們的新業主業務也持續保持強勁。

We were very pleased with our tour flow. But I think, specifically related to your question, when we look back to pre-COVID 2019, our close rates, our VPGs and our transaction size, all related to new owners are meaningfully up from pre-COVID, and that's really a reflection to your question about the performance of all strata of household incomes and looking at a different perspective of new owners and owners because I think most people are looking for weakness to show up in our new owner segment as a sign that the economy is weakening.

我們對我們的旅遊流程非常滿意。但我認為，具體與您的問題相關，當我們回顧 2019 年新冠疫情之前時，我們的成交率、VPG 和交易規模，所有與新業主相關的內容都比疫情之前有顯著上升，這實際上反映了您關於所有家庭收入表現的問題，並從新階層業主和業主的不同角度看待問題，因為我認為大多數人都希望看到新階層的經濟跡象。

And we could say after the first six months, if that's not the case.

我們可以說，在前六個月之後，情況就會不是這樣。

Great, thank you. And then I do have a follow-up question for Erik. Erik, with the VPG expectation going up, -- what are your expectations for the buyer mix in that expectations for closing rates versus your prior guidance for VPG. And I think on the last earnings call, you had expected the new owner mix or Mike has expected new owner mix still to be around towards to be around 35%.

太好了，謝謝。然後我有一個後續問題要問艾瑞克。艾瑞克，隨著 VPG 預期的上升，您對買家組合的預期是什麼，對於成交率的預期與您之前對 VPG 的指導相比如何。我認為在上次收益電話會議上，您曾預計新所有者組合或 Mike 預計新所有者組合仍將保持在 35% 左右。

So we do expect in our financial forecast to see acceleration of the new owner mix, not -- so the long-range target remains 35% from a new owner mix perspective. We sat at 30% here in the second quarter. Our forecast does expect some improvement in that in the back half of the year.

因此，我們確實希望在財務預測中看到新業主組合的加速，而不是 - 因此從新業主組合的角度來看，長期目標仍然是 35％。我們第二季的佔比為 30%。我們的預測確實預計今年下半年情況會有所改善。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Stephen Grambling, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的史蒂芬‧格蘭布林。

Hey, thanks for taking the question. Just a follow-up on the new owner mix improvement. I guess are there any things that you're doing and that you're thinking about to help drive some of the incremental new owners or anything that you're thinking about in terms of trying to improve the conversion rate on new owners as we think about initiatives going into the back half of this year or even into next year?

嘿，謝謝你回答這個問題。這只是對新主人組合改進的後續行動。我想問一下，在我們考慮今年下半年甚至明年的舉措時，您是否正在做和考慮一些事情來幫助吸引一些新業主，或者您是否正在考慮一些事情來提高新業主的轉換率？

Yeah. So just add on to what Erik was saying was, we've always communicated this percentage. And I just want to make sure everyone's got the context of it. We had an incredible first half of the year on our owner side of the business, which is naturally going to push down our percentage of new owner percentage. We had a really good first half of the year as it relates to newer business.

是的。所以，補充一下艾瑞克所說的，我們一直在傳達這個百分比。我只是想確保每個人都了解事情的來龍去脈。今年上半年，我們的業主業務表現十分出色，這自然會拉低我們的新業主比例。就新業務而言，我們上半年的業績非常好。

It just happens when you perform so well on the owner side, our target of 35% naturally, it's further away from 35%. And we're going to continue to get to. Our long-term target, our short-term target is 35%. And if quarter-by-quarter, we have strength in one segment, it will fluctuate.

當你在所有者方面表現如此出色時，這種情況就會發生，我們的目標自然是 35%，但它離 35% 還很遠。我們將繼續努力。我們的長期目標、短期目標是35%。如果我們每季都在某個細分市場表現強勁，那麼它就會出現波動。

Remember, I believe it was first quarter last year, maybe it was second that we were at 38%, 37%, and that was just a quarter. So related to some things we're doing as it relates to driving new owners, there's a lot feathered throughout the script related to that. But I really want to focus on.

記住，我相信那是去年第一季度，也許是第二季度，我們的成長率是 38%、37%，而那隻是一個季度。因此，與我們為吸引新車主所做的一些事情有關，整個劇本中都有很多與此相關的內容。但我確實想集中精力。

Number one, we continue to focus on getting the right partners. We were pleased with the announcement in Q2 of one such partner in Hornblower. We also believe that the addition of these new brands, Margaritaville, which we're reinvigorating up double digits in sales year-on-year the addition of a core up double digits in sales year-on-year. Sports Illustrated, launching new sales later in the year. All of these are going to be bringing new owners to our overall ecosystem.

首先，我們持續致力於尋找合適的合作夥伴。我們很高興看到 Hornblower 在第二季宣布了這樣的合作夥伴。我們也相信，這些新品牌 Margaritaville 的加入將使我們的銷售額同比增長兩位數，核心品牌的加入將使我們的銷售額同比增長兩位數。體育畫報將於今年稍後推出新的銷售活動。所有這些都將為我們的整個生態系統帶來新的主人。

And lastly, just in addition to all of that, we have six regions, and each single one of them is out doing smaller partnerships in their region that are more pertinent to their region. And all that put together, I do just want to put a stamp on, I think you mentioned something about performance of new owners.

最後，除此之外，我們還有六個地區，每個地區都在其所在地區進行與其所在地區更相關的小型合作。把所有這些放在一起，我確實只是想加蓋一個印章，我想你提到了一些關於新主人的表現。

I think close rates are up roughly 11 percentage points from pre-COVID level. So our teams are performing well above where they were pre-COVID. And I think it's a combination of having a great team, very focused on execution and raising our marketing standards.

我認為收盤率比新冠疫情之前的水平上升了約 11 個百分點。因此，我們的團隊表現遠高於新冠疫情之前。我認為這得益於我們擁有一支優秀的團隊，高度重視執行力，並不斷提高我們的行銷標準。

That's great. I'll leave it there. Thank you.

那太棒了。我就把它留在那裡。謝謝。

Thanks, Stephen.

謝謝，史蒂芬。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

David Katz, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的戴維·卡茨。

Hi, morning, everybody. Thanks for all the commentary so far. I noticed that the Accor brand seems to be more of an international play. And I wonder if you could give us some updated thoughts on what you think the international opportunity or TAM really is? And at what point does it become a increasingly meaningful driver of the enterprise in total?

大家早安。感謝迄今為止的所有評論。我注意到雅高品牌似乎更具國際化。我想知道您是否可以就國際機會或 TAM 的真正含義向我們提供一些最新想法？那麼，什麼時候它會成為整個企業越來越有意義的驅動力呢？

Well, there's two sides to that story. First of all, Accor is if my stats are right, the largest international operator of hospitality outside the United States, the brand is powerful. It's impactful. It's got a multitude of brands and its TAM is on par with the best hospitality companies -- in the largest hospitality companies in the world. That's all the positive.

嗯，這個故事有兩面。首先，如果我的數據正確的話，雅高集團是美國以外最大的國際酒店營運商，其品牌非常強大。這很有影響力。它擁有眾多品牌，其 TAM 與最好的酒店公司（世界上最大的酒店公司）相當。這都是正面的方面。

And the second, if I could add a second positive is the integration with their teams in the Asia Pacific region and considerations in other regions has been super supportive to help us grow, and that's meaningful in the assistance of growth, which has led us to announcing our first resort since having the brand about 14 months after the acquisition.

第二，如果我可以補充第二個積極的方面，那就是與亞太地區團隊的整合以及其他地區的考慮對我們的發展非常有幫助，這對我們的發展很有幫助，這使得我們在收購大約 14 個月後就宣布了我們的第一個度假村。

The flip side of that coin is timeshare is by far globally strongest in the United States. We've got an accepted product in after 30 years of operation, the industry has evolved to be primarily hospitality branded companies.

另一方面，分時度假目前在美國是全球最強的。經過 30 年的運營，我們已經擁有了公認的產品，該行業已發展成為主要由酒店品牌公司組成的行業。

People are highly loyal to Wyndham to Hilton to Marriott to Disney to Holiday Inn just to name a few. At our Margaritaville brand, and the industry is over 80% hospitality branded the regulatory environment protects consumers and gives them avenues to for their ownership and comfort that their purchase is protected. So we remain super bullish about the US market. We remain super bullish about our Wyndham brand.

人們對溫德姆、希爾頓、萬豪、迪士尼和假日酒店等酒店都非常忠誠。在我們的 Margaritaville 品牌中，以及該行業中超過 80% 的酒店品牌中，監管環境保護消費者並為他們提供維護所有權和確保購買受到保護的途徑。因此，我們仍然非常看好美國市場。我們仍然對溫德姆品牌非常看好。

We have incremental opportunity outside the US with the core. And we view most of these new brands, whether it's a core, sports illustrated and you go down the line to be sort of $200 million to $400 million of sales brands. But you stack four or five those together and you can start to look at a growth trajectory over five to seven years that allows for us to maintain our current growth rate over time.

我們在美國以外擁有核心的增量機會。我們認為大多數新品牌，無論是核心品牌、運動畫報或其他品牌，銷售額都可能在 2 億至 4 億美元之間。但是，如果你將這四到五個因素疊在一起，你就可以開始看到五到七年內的成長軌跡，這使我們能夠長期維持目前的成長率。

Understood. And just to follow that up. When we think about international sales, maybe $1 of sales or $100 of sales. Should we think about the economic intensity in terms of what you earn being similar, better, worse than what you have here in the US?

明白了。只是為了跟進這一點。當我們考慮國際銷售時，可能是 1 美元的銷售額或 100 美元的銷售額。我們是否應該從收入水平與美國相似、更好還是更差的角度來考慮經濟強度？

I would expect it to be similar as far as profitability margins. I would also expect it to be similar three years from now what it is today as far as the mix, we do about 90% of our revenue in the US and about 10% internationally.

我預計獲利率會類似。我還預計，就業務結構而言，三年後我們的收入將與現在類似，大約 90% 的收入來自美國，大約 10% 的收入來自國際。

So I wouldn't expect any significant trajectory or incremental risk for currency fluctuation as a result of our expansion. Our objective back to Stephen's question and tying in years is we want to look for new customers geographically, database wise and the core provides us both those avenues.

因此，我預計我們的擴張不會帶來任何顯著的軌跡或貨幣波動的增量風險。我們的目標是回到史蒂芬的問題並結合多年來的目標，我們希望從地理位置、資料庫角度尋找新客戶，而核心為我們提供了這兩種途徑。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thanks David.

謝謝大衛。

Ben Chaiken, Mizuho Securities.

瑞穗證券的 Ben Chaiken。

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Good morning, Eric. Maybe to start off, as you think about the remainder of the year, can you help remind us the different variables influencing the back half -- if I'm not mistaken, I believe you began selling SI in 3Q, 4Q. Maybe help us with the timing and magnitude of that and any other considerations. I guess the premise of the question is, I think prior to today, there was an implied acceleration in contract sales in the back half. And I just want to maybe dive into what those considerations are? And then one follow-up.

嘿，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。早安，埃里克。首先，當您考慮今年剩餘時間時，您能否幫助我們回顧一下影響下半年的不同變數——如果我沒記錯的話，我相信您在第三季、第四季開始銷售 SI。也許可以幫助我們確定時機、規模以及其他考慮因素。我想這個問題的前提是，我認為在今天之前，下半年的合約銷售隱含著加速成長。我只是想深入了解這些考慮因素是什麼？然後進行一次跟進。

Of course, Ben. And the implication that you're reading through is correct. The anticipation on the back half of the year is that we would be lapping tough comps in the first half of the year on tour flow. So year-on-year, tour flow increases in the latter half of this year.

當然，本。而您所讀到的意思是正確的。對下半年的期望是，我們將在上半年的巡迴賽中應對艱難的比賽。因此，今年下半年旅遊人次較去年同期有所增加。

You combine that acceleration to an increase of EPG guidance diving back into Lizzie's question there is that you start to see a lot more confidence on the high end of the VOI range, which, in turn, gives us confidence that continued softness on the Travel and Membership segment can be covered, ultimately leading us to confirmation of our guidance range on adjusted EBITDA.

將這種加速與 EPG 指導的增加結合起來，回到 Lizzie 的問題，你開始看到對 VOI 範圍高端的更多信心，這反過來又讓我們有信心可以彌補旅行和會員部門的持續疲軟，最終讓我們確認調整後的 EBITDA 指導範圍。

So you should expect to see continued strength on the VOI side, covering off any weakness we see on the travel and membership side. And albeit only three weeks into July. I think it's safe to say that the trends that we've seen in Q2 on consumer resilience, key KPIs that led to a good Q2 portfolio performance, VPG, booking patterns, trends we saw in travel membership. All of those have remained consistent in the first three weeks of July. A reminder, our largest month of the year, those trends are consistent that we saw in Q2.

因此，您應該會看到 VOI 方面繼續保持強勁勢頭，彌補我們在旅行和會員方面看到的任何弱點。儘管七月才剛過三週。我認為可以肯定地說，我們在第二季度看到的消費者彈性趨勢、導致第二季度投資組合表現良好的關鍵 KPI、VPG、預訂模式以及我們在旅行會員方面看到的趨勢。所有這些在七月的前三週都保持一致。提醒一下，這是我們一年中最大的月份，這些趨勢與我們在第二季度看到的趨勢一致。

Got it. And then anything from a -- just to touch on SI, Doesn't that start to hit in '25 as well, helping you out in the back half?

知道了。然後還有什麼——只是觸及 SI，這是否也從 25 年開始發揮作用，幫助你解決後半部分的問題？

Yes and no. Yes. We will open in the spring of 2026. We expect to start sales at the end of 2025, so we can, pun intended, to put our first points on the board. And -- but as far as meaningful bottom line, not at all.

是也不是。是的。我們將於 2026 年春季開幕。我們預計將於 2025 年底開始銷售，因此我們可以在董事會上取得第一分。但就有意義的底線而言，根本沒有。

Continuing to grow Accor this year, continuing to grow Margaritaville and continued excellent execution on Club Wyndham will be the determinant of how we end the year and where in our guidance range will finish.

今年，雅高集團的持續發展、瑪格麗塔維爾的持續發展以及溫德姆俱樂部的持續出色執行將決定我們如何結束今年的業績以及我們的指導範圍將達到何種水平。

Understood. And then for my follow-up, maybe just stepping back a little bit on some of these new projects. Maybe you could help us understand the importance and why you're excited about new Margaritaville in Orlando, opening in as well as the SI in Nashville, whether it's strategically or geographically why it's important to the network?

明白了。然後，對於我的後續工作，我可能會稍微退後一步來處理一些新專案。也許您可以幫助我們理解其重要性以及為什麼您對在奧蘭多開設新的瑪格麗塔維爾以及在納什維爾開設 SI 感到興奮，無論是從戰略上還是從地理位置上，它對網絡都很重要？

Yeah. Ultimately, I zoom way out and just look at how hospitality is transitioning where people are attaching their individual lifestyle to the way they want to spend their leisure time. I don't know exactly the year. I probably should, but Margaritaville was a song and a drink a decade ago. And today, it's a hospitality company with dozens of hotels.

是的。最後，我將視角放遠，只觀察旅館業如何轉型，人們如何將他們的個人生活方式與他們想要度過閒暇時光的方式聯繫起來。我不知道具體年份。我可能應該這麼做，但十年前瑪格麗塔維爾只是一首歌和一種飲料。如今，它已成為一家擁有數十家酒店的酒店公司。

Why because people love to listen to music and have a drink in their hand on the beach. And leisure travel has become an expression of that lifestyle and you transition that across just what's illustrated in the affiliation excitement and passion people have for college sports, and we're simply meeting consumers where they are today. And I -- and most importantly for our business, especially being direct marketing is, we need to constantly be finding incremental database incremental addressable markets that we can't reach otherwise.

為什麼呢？因為人們喜歡在海灘上聽音樂、喝飲料。休閒旅行已經成為這種生活方式的一種表現，你可以透過人們對大學運動的熱情和熱愛來體現這種生活方式，我們只是在當今的消費者身上與他們相遇。對於我們的業務，尤其是直銷而言，最重要的是，我們需要不斷尋找我們無法透過其他方式觸及的增量資料庫增量可尋址市場。

And that's why we have aspirations on each of these not to become the behemoth that Wyndham is today, which will continue to grow. We -- that's where our strength is. But adding $200 million to $400 million of sales with an individual brand that has a unique database that we otherwise wouldn't reach. That's why I'm excited. And a year ago, we shared with you our aspirations.

這就是為什麼我們對每個酒店都抱有期望，希望它們不會成為今天溫德姆那樣的龐然大物，而是會繼續發展。我們——這就是我們的力量所在。但是，如果某個品牌擁有獨特的資料庫，銷售額就會增加 2 億到 4 億美元，否則我們無法達到這個水準。這就是我興奮的原因。一年前，我們與你們分享了我們的願望。

It's a year later. We -- I mentioned it in one of my last answers, we're double-digit growth in MargarAritinerceptville, were double-digit growth in Accor. And with Sports Illustrated coming, that -- those are all going to have to have outsized growth to our total VOI sales projections that we have today.

已經一年過去了。我們在上一個回答中提到過，MargarAritinerceptville 實現了兩位數成長，雅高集團也實現了兩位數成長。隨著《體育畫報》的推出，這些都將對我們今天的 VOI 總銷售預測產生巨大的成長。

Brad Montour, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的布拉德·蒙圖爾。

Hey, good morning, everybody. Thanks for taking my question. So just a more nuanced version of a question you heard earlier about the 2Q and the new owner sales. I think when we went back -- if we go back to March, April, when you were exiting the first quarter, you highlighted like slightly soft, I don't want to put words in your new owner sales trends. It sounds like it came out pretty well for you and those sort of held up in the 2Q.

嘿，大家早安。感謝您回答我的問題。因此，這只是您之前聽到的有關第二季度和新主人銷售的一個問題的更細緻的版本。我認為當我們回顧時 - 如果我們回到三月、四月，當你退出第一季時，你強調了略微疲軟，我不想在你的新主人銷售趨勢中多說什麼。聽起來您的業績表現不錯，並且在第二季度有所保持。

But with the sort of lowering in the mix in the 2Q, I wonder -- and the question is you guys have levers, right, in terms of what kind of tour flow you want new owner versus repeat. Did you sort of tactically move toward repeat in the and that kind of helps keep a higher-quality new owner tour coming in and keeping those metrics high, that makes sense?

但隨著第二季組合的降低，我想知道——問題是你們有槓桿，對吧，就你們想要新主人還是重複主人的旅遊流量而言。您是否在戰術上朝著重複的方向發展，這有助於保持更高品質的新主人巡迴演出並保持高指標，這有意義嗎？

So let me go back to my commentary at the end of Q1. We've just gone through Liberation Day. I think everyone was super nervous around the uncertainty in the macro economy. We've now gone three months through the quarter and there's not really been a change. We've not changed what we're trying to do. We're not trying to force any issue. I'm not going to ask my team to force the 35%. We're going to do -- we're going to execute against our business.

所以讓我回到第一季末的評論。我們剛剛度過了解放日。我認為每個人都對宏觀經濟的不確定性感到非常緊張。本季已經過去三個月了，但實際上並沒有什麼變化。我們並沒有改變我們正在嘗試做的事情。我們不會試圖強迫解決任何問題。我不會要求我的團隊強制執行這 35%。我們將會－我們將會執行我們的業務。

If we didn't bring up 35% to you all, we wouldn't even discuss it because the industry sits their companies in 30%. There's companies at 40%. And in that range, you can run a highly successful timeshare business. So we're going to stay consistent to the way we generate new owners.

如果我們不向大家提起 35%，我們甚至不會討論它，因為該行業將其公司置於 30% 的水平。有 40% 的公司。在這個範圍內，您可以經營非常成功的分時度假業務。因此，我們將保持一致的吸引新業主的方式。

And if there's fluctuation down to 30%, up to 40%, we are North Star for this business long term and the second half of this year will be 35%, but it will be no sweat if we hit 32%, 33% and I'm not going to get overly excited at 37%, 38%. The normal cadence of adding marketing, taking it away, refining the business means we will end up over time at 35%.

如果波動幅度降至 30% 或升至 40%，那麼從長遠來看，我們就是這項業務的北極星，今年下半年將達到 35%，但如果達到 32%、33%，那就毫不費力了，我不會對 37%、38% 感到過於興奮。增加行銷、減少行銷、改善業務的正常節奏意味著我們最終會達到 35%。

And keeping a highly executing sales and marketing team without dropping in changes in the middle of quarters inorganically or unnaturally doesn't help the overall enterprise. So this is -- our percentage in Q2 was natural. We didn't do anything unique to drive or decelerate the number and the performance specifically a new owner, the KPIs, as I mentioned in Stephen's question, are really strong and set up well for the long term.

保持一支高效的銷售和行銷團隊，而不在季度中期以非自然或不自然的方式做出改變，對整個企業沒有幫助。所以這是——我們在第二季的百分比是自然的。我們沒有採取任何獨特的措施來推動或減緩數量和性能，特別是新主人，正如我在史蒂芬的問題中提到的那樣，KPI 確實很強大並且為長期發展做好了準備。

Okay, that's super helpful and crystal clear. This is, I guess, the a follow-up to that and maybe more of a mathematical question then is -- and I know that there's no hard target on the back half for new owners. But if you are looking for a sequential improvement, what gives you confidence you can get a sequential improvement while also keeping VPGs in line sequentially while tour flow grows, right? I would think like the logic or the math would tell me that you'd have -- if you did improve a new owner mix throughout the back half, you would see sequential pressure on VPG. So maybe I'm missing something.

好的，這非常有幫助並且非常清楚。我想，這是對此問題的後續，也許更多的是數學問題——而且我知道對於新主人來說，後半部分沒有硬性目標。但是，如果您正在尋求連續的改進，那麼什麼能讓您有信心在獲得連續改進的同時，在旅遊流量增長的同時保持 VPG 連續一致呢？我想，邏輯或數學會告訴我，如果你確實在後半段改善了新所有者組合，你會看到 VPG 面臨連續壓力。所以也許我遺漏了一些東西。

Yes. So again, let me just come back to -- I'm going to worry less about the percentage, and I'm going to spend more energy and our team spend more energy of are we growing our tour mix. Are we lapping our harder comps? Are we executing against our new partnerships? And are we opening on time, the new channels and the new in-house opportunities that we have.

是的。所以，讓我再說一次——我不會太擔心百分比，我會花更多的精力，我們的團隊也會花更多的精力來擴大我們的旅遊組合。我們正在進行更艱難的比賽嗎？我們是否正在執行新的合作關係？我們是否按時開放了新的管道和新的內部機會。

What we're seeing is that first three weeks of July is our marketing teams on the new owner side are executing extremely well. They're executing against new partnerships. They're activating in the regions in a high new owner period being in July. So percentage aside, the new owner channel is growing the way we wanted to. And yes, there needs to be acceleration in Q3 from the 3% in Q2 growth and 2% first half of the year, year-on-year growth. So yes, we expect acceleration.

我們看到的是，七月的前三週，新東家的行銷團隊表現非常出色。他們正在執行新的合作關係。七月是新業主高峰期，他們正在各地區積極活動。所以除了百分比之外，新所有者管道正在按照我們想要的方式成長。是的，第三季的年成長需要在第二季 3% 和上半年 2% 的基礎上加速。是的，我們期待加速。

Early indications are we're going to get that acceleration. And the key now is we raised our full year VPG guidance, but the big win in the second half of the year is if we accelerate tour flow and maintain VPG where they were in Q2, but it is a balance. And right now, our team is balancing it extremely well.

早期跡象表明我們將會獲得這種加速。現在的關鍵是我們提高了全年 VPG 指導，但下半年最大的勝利是如果我們加速旅遊流量並將 VPG 維持在第二季度的水平，但這是一個平衡。現在，我們的團隊正在非常好地平衡這一點。

Great, thanks for the thoughts, Michael.

太好了，謝謝你的想法，邁克爾。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Patrick Scholes, Truist Securities.

帕特里克·斯科爾斯（Patrick Scholes），Truist Securities。

Great. Just a quick follow-up question on the Sports Illustrated brand. Just give us an update on when you expect Alabama to open? It sounds like Nashville will be next year, but where do you staying with Alabama? And then specifically on Nashville.

偉大的。我只是想快速問一下關於運動畫報品牌的後續問題。請告訴我們您預計阿拉巴馬州何時開放？聽起來納許維爾明年會是，但是你在阿拉巴馬州住在哪裡呢？然後特別提到納什維爾。

How is that being financed? Is that asset light? Or is that something that you're putting perhaps partially or fully on balance sheet?

資金是如何籌措的？這算是輕資產嗎？或者您是否將其部分或全部放在資產負債表上？

Thank you. Okay, so let me hit each of the markets one by one. So Nashville is a conversion property. It will be just in time inventory to match revenue to sales, 185 units opening in the spring of 2026 and expectation is to start sales at some point in Q4 this year. Tuscaloosa is a purpose-built project, which we've gone through the permitting process, which put us about a quarter behind from our original expectations. So it's going to be early '27 for delivery.

謝謝。好的，那麼讓我逐一介紹每個市場。所以納許維爾是一種轉換財產。庫存將及時匹配收入和銷售額，185 個單位將於 2026 年春季開業，預計將於今年第四季的某個時候開始銷售。塔斯卡盧薩是一個專門建造的項目，我們已經完成了許可程序，這比我們最初的預期落後了約四分之一。因此交貨時間將是 27 年初。

I would expect the -- to sort of split those two goalposts is that we will do another announcement this year on a third Sports Illustrated resort more than likely to be conversion, but more to come on that. We told you on the last call, we'd announced by this call, we did. I'd expect that we'd do one more announcement this year for our third location, which, again, I'd expect to be just in time, and I'd expect to be conversion as well.

我希望——為了分裂這兩個目標，我們今年將再次宣布第三個體育畫報度假村，這很可能是轉換，但還有更多內容。我們在上次電話會議上告訴過你們，我們在這次電話會議上宣布了這一點。我希望我們今年能再宣布一次我們的第三個地點，同樣，我希望這會及時發生，並且我也希望這也是一次轉換。

Okay. Thank you for the color on that. I'm all set.

好的。謝謝你的色彩。我已準備好了。

All right, Patrick. Thank you.

好的，派崔克。謝謝。

Thank you. We reach end of our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over for any further closing comments.

謝謝。我們的問答環節結束了。我想再次請大家發表進一步的結論。

Thanks, Kevin, and thanks again for joining us today. We're proud of what our team has accomplished so far this year and are excited about what's ahead. We remain focused on executing our strategy, driving long-term value and navigating the market with discipline and agility.

謝謝，凱文，再次感謝您今天加入我們。我們為團隊今年迄今所取得的成就感到自豪，並對未來充滿期待。我們將繼續專注於執行我們的策略、推動長期價值並以紀律和敏捷性引領市場。

As we look forward, we're confident in the strength of our business, the resilience of our model and our future opportunities. We appreciate your time today and look forward to keeping you updated on our progress in the quarters to come. Thanks, have a great day.

展望未來，我們對我們的業務實力、我們模式的彈性和我們未來的機會充滿信心。我們感謝您今天抽出時間，並期待在未來幾季向您通報我們的進展。謝謝，祝您有愉快的一天。

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.

謝謝。今天的電話會議和網路直播到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路，享受美好的一天。我們感謝您今天的參與。