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Operator
Operator
Hello everyone and welcome to TriNet's Fourth quarter 2024 Financial results medium term outlook. My name is Lydia and I'll be your operator today.
大家好,歡迎來到 TriNet 2024 年第四季財務業績中期展望。我叫莉迪亞,今天我將擔任您的接線生。
After the prepared remarks, there'll be an opportunity for you to ask questions. If you'd like to participate in the Q&A, you can do so by pressing star followed by one on your telephone keypad. I'll now hand you over to Alex Bauer to begin.
在準備好的發言之後,您將有機會提問。如果您想參與問答,可以按下電話鍵盤上的星號鍵,然後按 1 鍵。現在我將把時間交給亞歷克斯·鮑爾 (Alex Bauer) 來開始。
Alex Bauer - Vice President of Investor Relations
Alex Bauer - Vice President of Investor Relations
Thank you, operator. Good morning. My name is Alex Bauer, TriNet's head of investor relations. Thank you for joining us and welcome to TriNet's fourth quarter conference call and webcast. I'm joined today by our President and CEO Mike Simon and our CFO Kelly Tuminelli.
謝謝您,接線生。早安.我叫 Alex Bauer,是 TriNet 的投資人關係主管。感謝您的加入,歡迎參加 TriNet 第四季電話會議和網路廣播。今天與我一起出席的還有我們的總裁兼執行長 Mike Simon 和財務長凱利圖米內利 (Kelly Tuminelli)。
Before we begin, I would like to preview this morning's call, which will be a bit longer than usual as we will provide a strategy update along with our earnings related content and outlook. I will first pass the call to Mike for a few introductory comments regarding our strategy and medium term outlook as well as our fourth quarter and full year performance.
在我們開始之前,我想預覽一下今天早上的電話會議,這次電話會議將比平時長一點,因為我們將提供策略更新以及與收益相關的內容和展望。我先將電話轉給麥克,請他就我們的策略和中期展望以及第四季和全年業績做一些介紹性評論。
Kelly will then review our Q4 and full year financial performance in greater detail and provide our 2025 financial guidance and outlook. Mike will then return to review in greater detail our strategy and medium term outlook, including our value creation targets, leaving plenty of time for Q&A. Please note that today's discussion will include our 2025 full year financial outlook, our medium term outlook, and other statements that are not historical in nature, or predictive in nature, or depend upon or refer to future events or conditions such as our expectations, estimates, predictions, strategies, beliefs, or other statements that might be considered forward-looking.
然後,凱利將更詳細地回顧我們第四季度和全年的財務業績,並提供我們 2025 年的財務指導和展望。然後,麥克將回來更詳細地回顧我們的策略和中期展望,包括我們的價值創造目標,並留出充足的時間進行問答。請注意,今天的討論將包括我們的 2025 年全年財務展望、中期展望以及其他非歷史性質、非預測性質的陳述,或依賴或參考未來事件或條件(如我們的預期、估計、預測、戰略、信念或其他可能被視為前瞻性的陳述)。
These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and assumptions and are inherently subject to risks, uncertainties, and changes in circumstances that are difficult to predict and that may cause actual results to differ materially from statements being made today or in the future. Except as may be required by law, we do not undertake to update any of these statements in light of new information, future events, or otherwise.
這些前瞻性陳述是基於管理階層目前的預期和假設,本質上受難以預測的風險、不確定性和情況變化的影響,可能會導致實際結果與今天或未來的陳述有重大差異。除非法律另有要求,否則我們不承諾根據新資訊、未來事件或其他情況更新任何這些聲明。
We encourage you to review our most recent public filings with the SEC, including our 10K and 10Q filings for more detailed discussion of the risks, uncertainties, and changes in circumstances that may affect our future results or the market price of our stock.
我們鼓勵您查看我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的公開文件,包括我們的 10K 和 10Q 文件,以便更詳細地討論可能影響我們未來業績或股票市場價格的風險、不確定性和情況變化。
In addition, our discussion today will include non-gap financial measures, including our forward-looking guidance for adjusted EA margin and adjusted net income for diluted share. For reconciliations of our non-gap financial measures to our GAAP financial results, please see our earnings release 10Q filings, or our 10K filing, which are or will be available on our website or through the SEC website. With that, I will turn the call over to Mike.
此外,我們今天的討論將包括非缺口財務指標,包括我們對調整後的 EA 利潤率和調整後的稀釋淨收入的前瞻性指引。有關我們的非差距財務指標與 GAAP 財務結果的對賬,請參閱我們的收益報告 10Q 文件或 10K 文件,這些文件現在或將來可在我們的網站或透過 SEC 網站取得。說完這些,我將把電話轉給麥克。
Michael Simonds - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Simonds - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Alex, and thank you all for joining us today. It's a privilege for me to speak with you at this important time for TriNet, our customers, and for our shareholders. I'll be celebrating my first anniversary with TriNet shortly. It's been an eventful year and I've learned a great deal.
謝謝你,亞歷克斯,也謝謝大家今天加入我們。在這個對 TriNet、我們的客戶和股東都很重要的時刻,我很榮幸能與您交談。我很快就要慶祝我在 TriNet 工作一週年了。這是多事的一年,我學到了很多。
While we've had to navigate a challenging environment with low customer hiring and elevated healthcare costs, it's given me the chance to see the strength of our business model first hand. It starts with my thousands of colleagues united around a strong sense of purpose, helping small businesses attract and retain great talent, gain efficiency, stay compliant, and focus on their core business.
雖然我們必須應對客戶僱用率低和醫療成本上升等充滿挑戰的環境,但它讓我有機會親眼目睹我們商業模式的優勢。首先,我的數千名同事團結一致,共同努力,幫助小型企業吸引和留住優秀人才,提高效率,保持合規,並專注於他們的核心業務。
This team enabled by a proprietary technology platform provides the most comprehensive set of benefits and HR outsourcing services available in the market to SMBs. Having spent much of my career before China working on just one part of this puzzle, employee benefits, I can tell you it is a beautiful thing to see it all come together in a seamless fashion, to see our scale put to work for the benefit of the small and mid-sized business.
該團隊由專有技術平台提供支持,為中小企業提供市場上最全面的福利和人力資源外包服務。在來到中國之前,我的大部分職業生涯都在致力於解決這個難題的一部分,即員工福利,我可以告訴你,看到所有福利無縫地結合在一起,看到我們的規模為中小企業謀福利,真是一件美妙的事情。
Our customers value our integrated approach to such a degree that even when we need to raise prices as we have given healthcare cost trends, we still enjoy very strong retention and a high net promoter score. We have a strong, durable business. The current environment also helped highlight opportunities for us to improve as well. Some of these we addressed in 2024, including strengthening our insurance and revenue leadership, centralizing and improving our data and analytics capabilities, and removing lower value spend from our expense base.
我們的客戶非常重視我們的綜合方法,即使我們需要根據醫療成本趨勢提高價格,我們仍然享有很高的保留率和淨推薦值。我們的業務強勁且持久。目前的環境也幫助我們凸顯了改進的機會。我們在 2024 年解決了其中的一些問題,包括加強我們的保險和收入領導地位、集中和改進我們的數據和分析能力、以及從我們的費用基礎中消除價值較低的支出。
Some opportunities are bigger and they require disciplined choices on where to invest. As we spent time last year on a rigorous strategic review. I'm excited to share the outcome of that review with you later in the call. And outline how we're becoming a more focused company. How we will grow revenues, expand margins, and ultimately create value for our shareholders on a 13% to 15% sustained rate 2025 will be a year of transition. We will work in a measured way to reprice our insurance cost ratio back into our targeted range and exit 2025 in a much improved position.
有些機會較大,需要對投資地點做出嚴謹的選擇。正如我們去年花了一些時間進行嚴格的策略審查。我很高興在稍後的電話會議中與您分享審查的結果。並概述我們如何成為一家更專注的公司。我們將如何以 13% 至 15% 的持續成長率增加收入、擴大利潤率並最終為股東創造價值,2025 年將是轉型之年。我們將採取謹慎的方式,將保險成本率重新調整至目標範圍,並在 2025 年實現大幅改善。
While we expect strong retention. The size of healthcare price increases will modestly increase attrition and dampen new sales compared to the first half of 2024. We will also exit our Saas-only HRIS business in 2025. While the technology acquired through Xenofits remains strategically important. HRIS is a market where we don't have a clear path to winning, and it has become a distraction from our core.
但我們期望有較高的保留率。與 2024 年上半年相比,醫療保健價格上漲的幅度將略微增加員工流失率並抑制新銷售。我們也將在 2025 年退出純 Saas 的 HRIS 業務。而透過Xenofits獲得的技術仍然具有戰略重要性。在 HRIS 市場上,我們還沒有明確的勝利之道,它已經成為我們核心業務的干擾因素。
Our guidance for 2025 reflects the transition TriNet is going through, and our goal this morning is to convey both the importance of this transition and what we believe is an achievable outlook for substantial shareholder value creation over the coming few years.
我們對 2025 年的指導反映了 TriNet 正在經歷的轉型,我們今天早上的目標是傳達這一轉型的重要性以及我們認為在未來幾年內可以實現的大量股東價值創造前景。
With that, I'm going to pass the call to Kelly to review our fourth quarter and full year performance as well as 2025 guidance.
說完這些,我將把電話轉給凱利,讓他回顧我們第四季和全年的業績以及 2025 年的指引。
Kelly Tuminelli - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Kelly Tuminelli - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Thank you, Mike. Our fourth quarter performance reflected a continuation of many trends we experienced during 2024. While we saw some encouraging signs, business hiring remained slow as S&Bs continued to navigate high interest rates and funding costs along with muted demand. While new customers value our services, these sales were down year-over-year as they were priced to reflect the elevated insurance cost environment. We also drove record retention for 2024 even as we renewed business at higher rates.
謝謝你,麥克。我們第四季的業績反映了我們在 2024 年經歷的許多趨勢的延續。雖然我們看到了一些令人鼓舞的跡象,但由於中小企業繼續承受高利率和融資成本以及低迷的需求,企業招聘仍然緩慢。雖然新客戶重視我們的服務,但由於定價反映了保險成本上漲的環境,這些銷售量較去年同期下降。即使我們以更高的速度更新業務,我們也推動了 2024 年的記錄保留。
Mike will spend more time going through our strategy refresh and detail, but a key reaffirmation from it was that our customers benefit from differentiated service coupled with purpose-built technology. Given this, we are narrowing and intensifying our focus on PEO and will exit the HRIS software only business. The underlying Enfis technology will remain the core of our digital transformation and the backbone of our nascent ASO product called HR Plus. This offering pairs our strong service model with our HRIS technology.
麥克將花更多時間仔細研究我們的策略更新和細節,但其中一個關鍵的確認是,我們的客戶將受益於差異化服務和專用技術的結合。有鑑於此,我們正在縮小和加強對 PEO 的關注,並將退出僅限 HRIS 軟體的業務。底層的 Enfis 技術仍將是我們數位轉型的核心,也是我們新興 ASO 產品 HR Plus 的支柱。該產品將我們強大的服務模式與我們的 HRIS 技術結合在一起。
We have scrutinized operating expenses including staffing and our office footprint. This review led to a restructuring charge of $49 million related to exiting our HRIS business and capturing those future savings. With that, let's dive into our financial performance in greater detail. Total revenues grew 1% year-over-year in the fourth quarter and for the full year, both in line with our guidance. Note that we have reclassified interest income as revenue as it's an integral outcome of our core business operations which didn't change the year-over-year revenue growth percentage.
我們仔細審查了包括人員配備和辦公室佔地面積在內的營運費用。此次審查導致了 4900 萬美元的重組費用,與退出我們的 HRIS 業務並獲取未來節省的費用有關。因此,讓我們更詳細地了解我們的財務表現。第四季和全年總營收年增 1%,均符合我們的預期。請注意,我們已將利息收入重新歸類為收入,因為它是我們核心業務營運的一個組成部分,並且不會改變同比收入成長率。
Total revenue's performance for the year was largely driven by a consistent average number of co-employed WSEs, a low single digit rate increase, partly offset by a shift in vertical mix which reduced average admin fees and benefit participation levels. Customer hiring remained low in our technology vertical, but we did see some pockets of improvements, most notably in financial services. We finished the year with approximately 361,000 total WSEs, up 4%.
本年度總收入的表現很大程度上受到共同僱用的華爾街英語員工的平均數量的穩定增長、低個位數的增長率的推動,但垂直組合的轉變在一定程度上抵消了這一變化,從而降低了平均管理費和福利參與水平。在我們的技術垂直領域,客戶招募仍然很低,但我們確實看到了一些改進,最明顯的是在金融服務領域。截至今年年底,WSE 總數約為 361,000 名,成長 4%。
As a reminder, total WSCs include platform users who are accessing our platform as well as co-employed WSCs receiving the full benefit of our PEO services. We ended the year at 330,000 co-employed WSEs, down 2%. The decline in co-employed WSEs was largely the result of hiring within the installed base remaining just over 1% for the year and new sales just below total attrition.
提醒一下,總 WSC 包括訪問我們平台的平台用戶以及充分利用我們 PEO 服務的共同僱用 WSC。截至年底,華爾街英語員工人數為 33 萬人,下降了 2%。聯合僱用的華爾街英語員工數量的下降主要是因為在現有客戶群中,當年的招聘量僅略高於 1%,而新銷售額略低於總流失率。
As I said at the outset, fourth quarter new sales performance came in line with our forecast while pricing new business appropriately for the current and expected health cost environment. Professional services revenue in the fourth quarter declined 4%, largely due to lapping the 2023 rollout of an annual client-based technology fee. We are suspending this fee and do not expect to be charging it going forward.
正如我在一開始所說的,第四季的新銷售業績符合我們的預測,同時根據當前和預期的醫療成本環境對新業務進行了適當的定價。第四季專業服務收入下降了 4%,主要是因為 2023 年將推出年度客戶技術費。我們暫停收取該費用,並且預計今後不再收取該費用。
For the year, professional services revenue increased 1%. Our PEO revenue in the year grew 3%. This included a modest pricing uplift and the in your benefit from the client technology fee, as well as a 19% decline in our combined HRIS and ASO revenue. As we exit the HRASS only portion of the business, these revenues will decline meaningfully in 2025, partly offset by increased revenue from customers who buy ASO services. The cessation of the technology fee and the exit of the HRIS business are both included in our 2025 guidance.
全年專業服務收入成長了 1%。我們今年的 PEO 收入成長了 3%。其中包括適度的價格上漲和從客戶技術費中獲益,以及我們綜合 HRIS 和 ASO 收入下降 19%。隨著我們退出 HRASS 業務部分,這些收入將在 2025 年大幅下降,但部分將被購買 ASO 服務的客戶收入增加所抵消。停止收取技術費用和退出 HRIS 業務都包含在我們的 2025 年指引中。
Insurance revenues grew 2% in the fourth quarter, consistent with the year healthcare participation rates within our co-employed base were slightly lower, partly offset by rate increases. Insurance revenue for 2024 grew 1%. We expect to see the benefit of our renewals on insurance revenues billed throughout the course of 2025. Insurance costs in the fourth quarter grew 12%, reflecting the trend this year of higher health cost, inflation, and utilization.
第四季保險收入成長了 2%,與我們共同僱用基數內的醫療保健參與率略低的同比情況一致,但部分被費率上漲所抵消。2024年保險收入成長1%。我們預計,我們的續保業務將在 2025 年為保險收入帶來效益。第四季的保險成本成長了 12%,反映了今年醫療成本、通貨膨脹和利用率上升的趨勢。
Our normal seasonal pattern was slightly amplified as our pooling limits reset in October with more high cost claimants. The pattern of workers' comp claims was different this year than in prior years. For the year, workers' comp claims were generally in line with historical trends. Rather than being distributed across the second and fourth quarters, the benefit from favorable prior period developments this year was heavily weighted to the second quarter. This contributed to the higher ICR this quarter.
由於我們的集中限額在十月重新設定,高成本索賠者增多,我們的正常季節性模式略有放大。今年工人賠償索賠的模式與往年不同。今年,工傷賠償索賠總體上與歷史趨勢一致。今年前期良好發展帶來的好處並未分散到第二季和第四季度,而是主要集中在第二季。這導致本季度 ICR 有所提高。
For the year, total insurance costs grew 8%. Our fourth quarter insurance cost ratio came in at 95% within our guidance range, and we finished 2024 with an approximately 90% ICR also in line with our updated outlook. Excluding our $49 million restructuring charge, operating expenses in the fourth quarter were down 1% year-over-year and down 2% for the full year. Total intangible impairments were $25 million. The largest portion of that was $23 million from our decision to exit the HRAS software only business. The other components of the charge include $14 million linked to right sizing of our onshore team to reflect efficiencies as well as the opportunity to leverage highly skilled global talent, $7 million related to site rationalization efforts, and $3 million mainly for outside support and other items related to these efforts. Of the $49 million charge, $17 million of it is cash.
全年總保險成本增加了 8%。我們第四季的保險成本比率在我們的指引範圍內為 95%,而到 2024 年,我們的 ICR 約為 90%,這也符合我們最新的展望。除去 4,900 萬美元的重組費用,第四季的營運費用年減 1%,全年下降 2%。無形資產減損總額為 2,500 萬美元。其中最大的一部分是我們決定退出 HRAS 軟體業務而獲得的 2,300 萬美元。這筆費用的其他部分包括:1,400 萬美元與適當調整我們在岸團隊的規模有關,以提高效率以及利用高技能全球人才的機會;700 萬美元與場地合理化工作有關;300 萬美元主要用於外部支持和與這些工作相關的其他項目。在4900萬美元的費用中,有1700萬美元是現金。
These actions collectively will allow us to sharpen the focus of our organization on our value creating initiatives, unlock capital to reinvest and growth, and better position the company to deliver enhanced financial performance over the medium term. We will continue to manage expenses tightly, and we expect our 2025 expenses to be lower than 2024, excluding the restructuring charge. We do anticipate some trailing restructuring costs in 2025, albeit much smaller than in 2024.
這些舉措將使我們能夠更加關注組織的價值創造舉措,釋放資本進行再投資和成長,並使公司處於更好的位置,以在中期內實現更高的財務表現。我們將繼續嚴格管理費用,預計 2025 年的費用將低於 2024 年(不包括重組費用)。我們確實預計 2025 年會出現一些後續重組成本,儘管比 2024 年要小得多。
Fourth quarter, GAAP net loss per share was $0.46, and full year GAAP earnings per diluted share was $3.43. GAAP earnings per diluted share were reduced by the restructuring charge. Our adjusted earnings per diluted share, which excludes restructuring, was $0.44 in the quarter and $5.32 for the year. TriNet remained a strong cash generative business in 2024 despite operating headwinds. For the year we generated $279 million in net cash provided by operating activities and $201 million in free cash flow.
第四季度,GAAP 每股淨虧損為 0.46 美元,全年 GAAP 每股稀釋收益為 3.43 美元。重組費用減少了 GAAP 每股稀釋收益。經調整的每股攤薄收益(不包括重組)本季為 0.44 美元,全年為 5.32 美元。儘管面臨經營阻力,TriNet 在 2024 年仍然是一家強勁的現金創造企業。本年度,我們經營活動產生的淨現金為 2.79 億美元,自由現金流為 2.01 億美元。
In accordance with emerging accounting practices, we modified the presentation of our statement of cash flows by moving cash flows related to WSC activities from operating cash flows to financing cash flows. Net cash provided by operating activities now reflects what we previously provided within our MDNA as net cash provided by Operating Activities Corporate.
根據新興會計準則,我們修改了現金流量表的呈現方式,將 WSC 活動相關的現金流量從營業現金流轉為融資現金流。經營活動提供的淨現金現在反映的是我們先前在 MDNA 中提供的經營活動公司提供的淨現金。
We generated $60 million in adjusted EBITA in the fourth quarter and $485 million in adjusted IATA for the year. Over the course of the year, we leveraged that cash generation to fund dividends and repurchase approximately $1.8 million shares, deploying $219 million to shareholders. We also paid down $109 million of our revolving credit facility and exited 2024 with a debt to adjusted EBITA ratio of two times at the upper end of our targeted 1.5 times to 2 times range.
我們第四季的調整後 EBITA 為 6,000 萬美元,全年調整後 IATA 為 4.85 億美元。在這一年中,我們利用這些現金來支付股息並回購了價值約 180 萬美元的股票,向股東部署了 2.19 億美元。我們也償還了 1.09 億美元的循環信貸額度,到 2024 年末,債務與調整後 EBITA 的比率為兩倍,處於我們目標 1.5 倍至 2 倍範圍的上限。
In 2025, our capital return priorities remain unchanged. We will continue to deliver value to shareholders by investing in our value creation initiatives, funding dividends and share repurchases, and maintaining an appropriate liquidity buffer. Now let's turn to our 2025 outlook, where we've made a few changes compared to last year. First, we're moving from quarterly to annual guidance to better aligned guidance with how we forecast and manage our business.
2025年,我們的資本回報重點維持不變。我們將繼續透過投資我們的價值創造計劃、資助股息和股票回購以及維持適當的流動性緩衝來為股東創造價值。現在讓我們來看看 2025 年的展望,與去年相比我們做出了一些改變。首先,我們將從季度指導轉向年度指導,以便更好地與我們預測和管理業務的方式保持一致。
There's seasonality in both how our customers buy and how our business performs, and we spend a disproportionate amount of time discussing the seasonality of our business, distracting from long-term focus of profitable growth. Next, we're adding adjusted EBAA margin as a guidance metric to help investors better understand how we are forecasting operating expense growth.
我們的客戶購買方式和我們的業務表現都具有季節性,我們花費了大量的時間來討論業務的季節性,從而分散了對長期盈利增長的關注。接下來,我們將添加調整後的 EBAA 利潤率作為指導指標,以幫助投資者更了解我們如何預測營業費用成長。
For 2025, we expect total revenues to be in the range of $4.9 billion to $5.1 billion. Given the current economic backdrop, we are expecting slight volume decreases in 2025, resulting from three factors. One, our new sales assumption is down over 2024, with most of the decline occurring in Q1 due to our more prudent pricing approach reflecting elevated health cost trends two. We anticipate attrition moving up one to two points, but still below our previous historical norms as we place appropriate price increases with our existing customers. And three, we assume CIE growth to remain at low single digit growth rates similar to 2024 levels.
到 2025 年,我們預計總收入將在 49 億美元至 51 億美元之間。鑑於目前的經濟背景,我們預計 2025 年的銷售量將略有下降,原因有三。一,我們的新銷售假設在 2024 年有所下降,其中大部分降幅發生在第一季度,因為我們採取了更審慎的定價方法,反映了醫療成本上升的趨勢。我們預計流失率將上升一到兩個百分點,但由於我們對現有客戶實施了適當的價格上漲,因此仍低於我們先前的歷史標準。第三,我們假設 CIE 成長率將保持在與 2024 年水準相似的低個位數成長率。
As the year progresses, we expect total revenues to grow as pricing firms. With the volume backdrop, we expect professional services revenues to range from $700 million to $730 million. The drivers of this range are, first, the overall volume decline, which has an approximately $35 million to $40 million dollar impact on our 2025 revenues compared to 2024. Second, the discontinuation of an annual per client technology fee, which contributed $22 million in revenue in 2024. This fee was introduced in late 2023 and charged again during 2024. We have discontinued it after assessing customer feedback.
隨著時間的推移,我們預計定價公司的總收入將會成長。從數量來看,我們預計專業服務收入將在 7 億至 7.3 億美元之間。這一範圍的驅動因素首先是整體銷售下降,與 2024 年相比,這對我們 2025 年的收入產生了約 3,500 萬至 4,000 萬美元的影響。其次,停止向每位客戶收取年度技術費,這項費用將在 2024 年為該公司帶來 2,200 萬美元的收入。該費用於 2023 年底推出,並於 2024 年再次收取。在評估了客戶回饋後,我們已停止該服務。
Third, our exit from the HRIS business, where we expect only revenues to decline as customers convert to ASO or transition to another partner. We expect this choice to reduce revenues between $15.20 million dollars as we start building our base of ASO. Finally, we assume a modest single digit price increase contributing $25 million to $30 million partly offsetting the revenue declines I just mentioned. We expect our insurance cost ratio to be in the range of 92% to 90%. As the year progresses, we expect revenue to build and position us to exit 2025 with an improving seasonally adjusted ICR.
第三,我們退出 HRIS 業務,我們預計隨著客戶轉向 ASO 或轉向其他合作夥伴,該業務的收入只會下降。當我們開始建立 ASO 基礎時,我們預計這一選擇將使收入減少 1520 萬美元。最後,我們假設價格小幅上漲 2,500 萬至 3,000 萬美元,部分抵銷我剛才提到的收入下降。我們預計保險成本比率在 92% 至 90% 之間。隨著時間的推移,我們預計收入將會增加,並使我們能夠在 2025 年後實現經季節性調整後的 ICR 不斷改善。
In 2025 we expect our adjusted EBITDA margin to be approximately 7% to 9%. Prudent expense management remains a key objective, particularly as we reinvest in value creation initiatives. We expect lasting efficiency improvements to come from the expense actions we are taking. The 2025 contraction in our adjusted EBITDA margin includes two short-term factors. First, the midpoint of our guided insurance cost ratio is above our targeted range of 87% to 90%. And second, we expect to carry our HRIS expense base through the wind down of that business before right sizing those expenses.
我們預計 2025 年調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率約為 7% 至 9%。審慎的費用管理仍然是我們的關鍵目標,特別是當我們對價值創造計畫進行再投資時。我們期望透過採取的費用行動帶來持久的效率提升。我們調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率在 2025 年的收縮包括兩個短期因素。首先,我們指導的保險成本率中點高於我們的87%至90%的目標範圍。其次,我們預計,在正確確定這些費用的規模之前,我們將在該業務逐漸結束時維持我們的 HRIS 費用基礎。
For those SAS only customers who elect not to move to HR Plus, we will continue to support them through 2025. Lastly, given the strong capital deployment for the last two years, our cash and investment balances are lower. We've also experienced an overall decline in rates from recent highs. Both those factors together have lowered the interest income we are expecting in 2025 versus 2024 by $25 million to $30 million.
對於選擇不轉向 HR Plus 的 SAS 客戶,我們將繼續為他們提供支援直到 2025 年。最後,鑑於過去兩年強勁的資本配置,我們的現金和投資餘額較低。我們也經歷了利率從近期高點整體下降。這兩個因素共同導致我們預期 2025 年的利息收入與 2024 年相比降低了 2,500 萬美元至 3,000 萬美元。
As Mike said, 2025 will be a transition year for TriNet as we become more focused on our core value proposition with more efficient operations. This brings our expected GAAP earnings per diluted share to be in the range of $1.90 to $3.40 and adjusted earnings per diluted share to be $3.25 to $4.75.
正如 Mike 所說,2025 年將是 TriNet 的轉型年,我們將更加專注於我們的核心價值主張並實現更有效率的營運。這讓我們預期的 GAAP 每股攤薄收益介於 1.90 美元至 3.40 美元之間,調整後每股攤薄收益介於 3.25 美元至 4.75 美元之間。
With that, I will pass the call to Mike to discuss our value creation initiatives.
說完這些,我將把電話轉給麥克,討論我們的價值創造措施。
Michael Simonds - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Simonds - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Kelly, and thank you all for accommodating a longer call this quarter. I'm excited to share our strategy and medium term outlook. And I should also thank many of you for sharing your thoughts and questions with me over my first year. Many of you share my enthusiasm for our large market opportunity and TriNet's value proposition. You've also asked some very good questions about our lack of consistent growth, sustainability of margins, and the pros and cons of taking insurance risk.
謝謝你,凱利,也謝謝大家本季接受更長的電話會議。我很高興分享我們的策略和中期展望。我還要感謝你們中的許多人在我第一年與我分享你們的想法和問題。你們中的許多人和我一樣對我們的巨大市場機會和 TriNet 的價值主張充滿熱情。您也提出了一些非常好的問題,例如我們缺乏持續成長、利潤的可持續性以及承擔保險風險的利弊。
We undertook a thorough review of our strategy beginning last June to answer these and other important questions about our business. I'm going to walk you through the choices we've made, the data that underpins them, and the positive outcomes we're targeting for shareholders, customers, and colleagues. Our plan targets three straightforward financial objectives grow revenues, expand margins, and deliver on our capital management priorities.
從去年六月開始,我們對我們的策略進行了徹底的審查,以回答這些問題以及其他有關我們業務的重要問題。我將向你們介紹我們所做的選擇、支撐這些選擇的數據以及我們為股東、客戶和同事所設定的正面成果。我們的計劃針對三個直接的財務目標:增加收入、擴大利潤和實現我們的資本管理重點。
With disciplined execution, these actions support a value creation opportunity of 13% to 15% per year for our shareholders using 2024 as a baseline. I won't spend a lot of time on it now, but it is important to start with the strong position TriNet enjoys today. We serve over 15,000 PEO customers and 360,000 work site employees, and we are the premium brand in the space, delivering the leading technology experience with a high touch service model.
透過嚴格的執行,這些行動將為我們的股東帶來以 2024 年為基準每年 13% 至 15% 的價值創造機會。我現在不想花太多時間在這個問題上,但首先要談談 TriNet 目前享有的強勢地位。我們為超過 15,000 名 PEO 客戶和 360,000 名工作現場員工提供服務,我們是該領域的高端品牌,透過高接觸服務模式提供領先的技術體驗。
Our market opportunity is large and our industry is growing. $59 million people in the US are employed by companies with 500 or fewer employees. PEOs serve just 7% of that market, and the industry is growing 7.5% per year on a sustained basis, and we believe this growth can accelerate as there are three major secular tailwinds for our business model.
我們的市場機會很大,我們的產業正在成長。在美國,有 5,900 萬人受僱於員工人數不超過 500 人的公司。PEO 僅佔該市場的 7%,而該行業每年持續增長 7.5%,我們相信,由於我們的商業模式面臨三大長期順風,這一增長將會加速。
First, rising healthcare costs are a big issue that is not going away, and we believe the scale and risk taking in our model creates real value for SMBs. More on this in a moment. Next, over 40% of the SMB workforce is now full-time remote, which only makes it more complicated to onboard, benefit, and administer HR. Layer in the regulatory burden for the SMB with employees across multiple states, and our value proposition becomes even more compelling.
首先,醫療費用上漲是一個不會消失的大問題,我們相信我們模式中的規模和風險承擔為中小企業創造了真正的價值。稍後將對此進行詳細介紹。其次,目前中小企業超過 40% 的員工都是全職遠距辦公,這只會使人力資源的入職、福利和管理變得更加複雜。為在多個州擁有員工的中小企業增加監管負擔,我們的價值主張變得更具吸引力。
Against that backdrop of a growing industry and increasing S&B demand. TriNet's lack of consistent growth stands out, and for us. It underscores the need for us to change. Our plan is to grow revenues at 4% to 6% per year over the medium term. We've identified concrete ways to further differentiate ourselves from competitors on product, direct sales, and in the brokerage channel. Note that our 4% to 6% revenue growth assumes customer hiring remains somewhat muted, and I'll touch on that more in a moment.
在行業不斷發展和 S&B 需求不斷增加的背景下。對我們來說,TriNet 缺乏持續成長是顯而易見的。它強調了我們改變的必要性。我們的計劃是中期每年收入成長 4% 至 6%。我們已經找到了在產品、直銷和經紀通路方面進一步與競爭對手區分開來的具體方法。請注意,我們 4% 至 6% 的收入成長假設客戶招募仍然保持相對低迷,稍後我將詳細介紹這一點。
Let's start with our benefits offering and address one of the important questions many of you have asked, why take insurance risk.Our benefits offering is enabled by our business model. We take insurance risk. This comes with puts and takes. Particularly evident in the current cost environment. In our view, the positives win out over the long term, both for our customers and for our shareholders. Taking risk affords us greater access to claims data and puts us at the table with our carrier partners in designing and pricing our offerings. However, leveraging data and carrier partnerships also requires an investment in the right expertise and the right technology.
讓我們從福利產品開始,並解答許多人問的一個重要問題:為什麼要承擔保險風險。我們承擔保險風險。這伴隨著付出和收穫。在當前的成本環境下尤其明顯。我們認為,從長遠來看,無論是對我們的客戶還是股東而言,積極的一面都會佔上風。承擔風險使我們能夠更多地獲取索賠數據,並使我們能夠與承運商合作夥伴一起設計和定價我們的產品。然而,利用數據和運營商合作夥伴關係也需要對正確的專業知識和正確的技術進行投資。
On the people side in mid 2024 we carved out our insurance services group reporting directly to me. We brought in a new head of insurance services and added outstanding actuarial talent as well. On the technology side, we are working to solve a long standing problem at TriNet. Our benefits platform is efficient but rigid, with limited flexibility to tailor solutions to a customer's need. For example, to hit a lower price point for a cost sensitive customer, a primary lever has been discounting.
在人員方面,我們在 2024 年中期成立了直接向我報告的保險服務小組。我們聘請了一位新的保險服務主管,並增加了優秀的精算人才。在技術方面,我們正在努力解決 TriNet 的一個長期存在的問題。我們的福利平台高效但僵化,缺乏根據客戶需求客製化解決方案的靈活性。例如,為了向成本敏感的客戶降低價格,主要的手段就是打折。
Going forward, using the Xenifi's technology and dedicated change teams, we're building the capability to efficiently tailor offerings. While most of our competitors do not take risks and pass through standard healthcare products and pricing, we are partnering with carriers to provide options that meet customers' specific benefit objectives. We are driving towards having our first wave of these new offerings in the market by our fall selling season. These options paired with the strong enrollment, decision support, and administration capabilities of our platform will further differentiate us in the market.
展望未來,利用 Xenifi 的技術和專門的變革團隊,我們正在建立高效客製化產品的能力。雖然我們的大多數競爭對手都不敢冒險,也不願意採用標準的醫療保健產品和定價,但我們正在與營運商合作,提供滿足客戶特定福利目標的選擇。我們致力於在秋季銷售旺季將第一批新產品推向市場。這些選項與我們平台強大的註冊、決策支援和管理能力相結合,將進一步使我們在市場上脫穎而出。
Our increasingly tenured salespeople and growing employee benefit brokerage channel will use that differentiation to drive new business. Which is a good segue to changes we're making in our go to market approach. We grew our sales force by 14% in 2024 and planned to grow it modestly again here in 2025 targeting under penetrated geographies and experienced rep hires. We're also making changes to increase average tenure in our sales force.
我們日益資深的銷售人員和不斷增長的員工福利經紀管道將利用這種差異化來推動新業務。這對我們進入市場的方法所做的改變是一個很好的過渡。我們的銷售團隊在 2024 年成長了 14%,並計劃在 2025 年再次適度成長,目標是覆蓋滲透率較低的地區並聘用經驗豐富的銷售代表。我們也正在進行變革,以增加銷售團隊的平均任職期限。
Given our expansion and some self-inflicted struggles we've had in recent years, our median tenure is just over 21 months, lower than that of our peers. A rep with four years of experience produces more than four reps in their first year at TriNet. Our strategy for keeping reps longer starts with leadership, and we were pleased to bring in a new leader with a proven track record in building strong, career-oriented, direct, and channel teams in the SMB market.
考慮到我們的擴張和近年來遇到的一些自身困難,我們的平均任期剛剛超過 21 個月,低於我們的同行。具有四年經驗的銷售代表在 TriNet 的第一年就能產生超過四位銷售代表。我們的銷售代表保留期更長的策略始於領導力,我們很高興引進一位新的領導者,他在中小企業市場建立強大、以職業為導向、直接和通路團隊方面有著豐富的經驗。
We are redesigning our sales compensation and rewards programs to align incentives with longevity, investing in professional development, and building out physical offices to help strengthen our field culture and enhance collaboration.
我們正在重新設計我們的銷售薪酬和獎勵計劃,使激勵措施與長期性相結合,投資於專業發展,並建立實體辦公室,以幫助加強我們的現場文化並增強協作。
As we develop outstanding expertise in our sales team, our direct sales will benefit. In addition, benefit brokers will be more likely to do business with TriNet, preferring to refer their clients to tenured and experienced salespeople, and the opportunity in the benefit broker channel is big, as I shared earlier, PEOs only served 7% of the SMB market. In contrast, employee benefit brokers bring healthcare to nearly 70%, or $41 million WSEs in the S&P market. The industry, including TriNet, have gone back and forth between partnering and competing with brokers. Many of our peers own their own brokerages today.
隨著我們銷售團隊的專業技能不斷提升,我們的直銷也將受益。此外,福利經紀人將更有可能與 TriNet 做生意,更願意將他們的客戶介紹給資深且經驗豐富的銷售人員,福利經紀人通路的機會很大,正如我之前分享的那樣,PEO 僅服務於 7% 的 SMB 市場。相比之下,員工福利經紀人為醫療保健行業帶來了近 70% 的收入,即標準普爾市場上 4,100 萬美元的 WSE。包括 TriNet 在內的整個行業都在與經紀人的合作與競爭之間徘徊。如今,我們的許多同行都擁有自己的經紀公司。
Moving forward, our priority will be to collaborate versus compete. We're adding functionality to our platform to allow brokers access and insight on the clients they bring to TriNet. We are aligning incentives and establishing joint go to market approaches. While building trust in this channel doesn't happen overnight, I'm excited about the momentum we've already established.
展望未來,我們的首要任務是合作而不是競爭。我們正在為我們的平台添加功能,以允許經紀人訪問並了解他們帶到 TriNet 的客戶。我們正在協調激勵措施並建立聯合的市場進入方法。雖然在這個管道上建立信任並非一朝一夕就能實現的,但我對我們已經建立的勢頭感到非常興奮。
As I noted earlier, our medium term revenue forecast of 4% to 6% does not assume customer hiring returns all the way to historical norms. Our base case assumes a gradual ramp in CIE back from low single digit to mid single digit over the next few years. Should we see CIE above that, we would see an upside in our overall revenue and margin improvement as well, given the low cost of acquisition and incremental servicing cost for CIE.
正如我之前提到的,我們對中期收入成長 4% 至 6% 的預測並不假設客戶招募回報率會完全達到歷史正常水平。我們的基本情況是假設未來幾年 CIE 將逐漸從低個位數回升至中位數個位數。如果 CIE 的股價高於這一水平,那麼我們的整體營收和利潤率也會提高,因為 CIE 的收購成本較低且服務成本增量較小。
Of course we have leveraged much more in our immediate control to improve margins, and next I'd like to highlight the two most important ones. The first is risk management and improving our insurance cost ratio. We are confident we can return our ICR to our target range over the medium term.
當然,我們利用了更多可直接控制的資源來提高利潤率,接下來我想強調其中最重要的兩個因素。第一是風險管理,提高我們的保險成本率。我們有信心在中期內將 ICR 恢復到目標範圍。
On this page we provide our health cost ratio, which excludes workers' compensation. As you can see, the health care issue is largely confined to business written in 2023 and the first half of 2024, representing 15% of our book. The remaining 85% of the customer base sits in the middle of our targeted range. Because our health cost ratio issue is confined and we do not have a systemic mispricing of risk, I'm very confident we can manage our way back to our target range.
在此頁面上,我們提供了我們的健康成本比,其中不包括工人賠償。如您所見,醫療保健問題主要局限於 2023 年和 2024 年上半年的業務,占我們帳面的 15%。剩餘 85% 的客戶群處於我們目標範圍的中間。由於我們的健康成本比率問題受到限制,並且我們沒有系統性的風險錯誤定價,因此我非常有信心我們能夠設法回到目標範圍。
We took meaningful steps with our October 1st and January 1st effective renewals, and we will continue to work through our customer base in a balanced way over the course of 2025. I fully expect to exit the year in a much better place relative to our target. In addition to ICR, the other significant lever to drive margin improvement is operating expense. A few big elements will move the needle.
我們透過 10 月 1 日和 1 月 1 日生效的續約邁出了有意義的一步,並將在 2025 年期間繼續以平衡的方式開展客戶群的工作。我完全相信,今年我們能夠取得比目標更好的成績。除了內部成本比率 (ICR) 之外,推動利潤率提高的另一個重要槓桿是營業費用。一些重要因素將起到推動作用。
First, technology, especially investments in AI and digital, will lower cost while improving the customer experience. When I arrived at TriNet, we had already begun to reduce our significant tech debt, and we've accelerated those efforts. For example, we process over $2.5 million customer service cases per year, and over the medium term, we believe we can automate more than 20% of these interactions. Talent strategy is another big area. This is about having the right people in the right places for where our business is going and giving them the support and the tools to do their job efficiently.
首先,技術,尤其是在人工智慧和數位方面的投資,將降低成本,同時改善客戶體驗。當我來到 TriNet 時,我們已經開始減少大量的技術債務,我們已經加快了這些努力。例如,我們每年處理超過 250 萬美元的客戶服務案例,並且從中期來看,我們相信我們可以實現超過 20% 的互動自動化。人才策略是另一個大領域。這意味著根據我們的業務發展情況,將合適的人才安排在合適的位置,並為他們提供支援和工具,使他們能夠有效率地完成工作。
We expect the net effect of these efforts will help keep operating expense growth within aoneto 3% range per year on average. Importantly, there will be a flywheel effect as we create efficiencies. We will not only keep overall expense growth in check, we will also grow the share of OpEx that goes into new capabilities.
我們預計,這些努力的淨效應將有助於將營運費用成長率維持在平均每年1至3%的範圍內。重要的是,當我們提高效率時,就會產生飛輪效應。我們不僅會控制整體費用的成長,還會增加用於新功能的營運支出份額。
From 12% last year to between 20% and 25% in the medium term. This gives us the room to innovate and improve the value we bring to customers. Naturally, delivering on our growth and margin objectives will translate into strong free cash flow growth. Cash generation is one of the reasons we love our business model, and over the next few years, we expect to convert approximately 60% to 65% of adjusted EBITA to free cash flow.
從去年的12%上升至中期的20%至25%之間。這為我們提供了創新和提高為客戶帶來的價值的空間。當然,實現我們的成長和利潤目標將轉化為強勁的自由現金流成長。現金創造是我們熱愛我們的商業模式的原因之一,在未來幾年內,我們預計調整後 EBITA 的約 60% 至 65% 將轉化為自由現金流。
That's cash we can reinvest in the business or return to shareholders as we've done in recent years, returning over $2 billion since 2020 through repurchases. Our capital allocation strategy remains largely unchanged. We will continue the dividend we initiated in 2024 and we expect it to grow with earnings over time. We expect to continue to repurchase shares, and while we will remain opportunistic with respect to M&A, we do not anticipate significant transactions in the medium term and believe our policy of returning 75% of free cash flow on average to shareholders remains a good target.
我們可以將這些現金再投資於業務或返還給股東,就像我們近年來所做的那樣,自 2020 年以來,我們透過回購返還了超過 20 億美元。我們的資本配置策略基本上保持不變。我們將繼續派發 2024 年啟動的股息,並預計股息將隨著時間的推移隨著收益而增長。我們預計將繼續回購股票,雖然我們在併購方面仍會抓住機會,但我們預計中期不會發生重大交易,並相信我們平均將 75% 的自由現金流返還給股東的政策仍然是一個很好的目標。
Overall, we expect this plan will create compelling value for investors in the range of 13% to 15% per year on average. Our investments in offering and go to market will drive 4% to 6% revenue growth. We will achieve 10% to 11% margins through strong insurance risk management and expense efficiencies. We believe we can convert between 60% and 65% of our adjusted to free cash flow in support of our capital allocation strategy, which translates into 12% to 14% EPS growth and 13% to 15% value creation when you take the dividend into account.
總體而言,我們預計該計劃將為投資者創造平均每年 13% 至 15% 的引人注目的價值。我們在產品和市場方面的投資將推動4%至6%的營收成長。我們將透過強大的保險風險管理和費用效率實現 10% 至 11% 的利潤率。我們相信,我們可以將 60% 到 65% 的調整後自由現金流轉換為支持我們的資本配置策略,如果考慮到股息,這意味著 12% 到 14% 的每股收益增長和 13% 到 15% 的價值創造。
Now I'm mindful we are communicating our strategy on the same call that we're providing short term guidance for 2025, which on most dimensions is below our medium term outlook. I want to share a little more about the cadence of improvement to help you bridge from our 2025 guidance to our medium term outlook. The changes we are making build momentum through the year and set us up to exit 2025 on an improved trajectory. There are three primary factors driving this.
現在我注意到,我們在同一個電話會議上傳達了我們的策略,並為 2025 年提供了短期指導,從大多數方面來看,該指導都低於我們的中期展望。我想分享更多有關改進節奏的信息,以幫助您從我們的 2025 年指導過渡到我們的中期展望。我們正在進行的變革將在今年積聚動力,並使我們以更好的軌跡在 2025 年結束時取得成功。造成這現象的主要因素有三。
The first is repricing. We began this effort in the second half of 2024, and it takes about four quarters for the full impact of repricing the 2023 and first half '24 cohorts to be seen in the P&L. That means we'll see some benefit of repricing in the second half of 2025, but more meaningfully in 2026 and beyond. Next is Salesforce productivity. It takes time to recruit and hire sales reps that meet our standards and get them fully up to speed.
第一是重新定價。我們從 2024 年下半年開始這項工作,重新定價 2023 年和 2024 年上半年產品的全部影響大約需要四個季度才能在損益表中顯現出來。這意味著我們將在 2025 年下半年看到重新定價的一些好處,但更有意義的好處將在 2026 年及以後出現。接下來是 Salesforce 生產力。招募和聘用符合我們標準的銷售代表並讓他們全面掌握最新知識需要時間。
That said, we have large cohorts of salespeople entering their third and fourth years with TriNet, and we expect this experience, along with benefit offering improvements, will begin to drive sales increases during the fall selling season with significant improvements for January 2026.
儘管如此,我們有大量銷售人員在 TriNet 工作已進入第三年和第四年,我們預計這種體驗以及福利待遇的改善將在秋季銷售季開始推動銷售成長,並在 2026 年 1 月實現顯著改善。
Finally, the exit of the HRIS business lowers our base of revenue by $15 million to $20 million in 2025. And recall that while HRIS revenue goes away relatively quickly, it takes a bit longer to take out the expense as we will continue to service the solution through full transition of our customers. In 2025 there's a modest margin drag related to this dynamic that will not persist in 2026. HRIS was a low margin and shrinking on a pro forma basis. Fully exiting this business will be accretive to margins.
最後,退出 HRIS 業務將使我們 2025 年的收入基礎降低 1,500 萬美元至 2,000 萬美元。回想一下,雖然 HRIS 收入消失得相對較快,但需要更長的時間才能消除費用,因為我們將在客戶的全面轉型過程中繼續提供解決方案服務。2025 年,與此相關的利潤率將出現適度拖累,但這種現像不會持續到 2026 年。HRIS 的利潤率很低,而且按預計計算還在縮減中。完全退出該業務將會增加利潤。
In conclusion, I'd like to finish back where I started this call. We are in the midst of a transition year here at TriNet, but I couldn't be more excited or confident in where we're headed. With our large growing market, strong customer value proposition, and a straightforward and disciplined strategy in place, we are well positioned to restart revenue growth, expand our margins, and create value for our shareholders.
最後,我想回到本次通話的開頭。TriNet 正處於轉型期,但我對我們的未來發展方向感到無比興奮和自信。憑藉我們龐大且不斷成長的市場、強大的客戶價值主張以及簡單而嚴謹的策略,我們有能力重新開啟收入成長、擴大利潤率並為股東創造價值。
With that, we now look forward to taking your questions operator.
現在,我們期待接線員回答您的問題。
Operator
Operator
(Operator instructions)
(操作員指令)
Our first question comes from Jared Levine, TD Cowen.
我們的第一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Jared Levine。
Jared Levine - Analyst
Jared Levine - Analyst
Thank you. I guess to start here, let's touch on the medium term financial targets. I guess the first part here, what are you defining in terms of duration for the medium term and then can you discuss on the underlying components of that four to six revenue growth between volume and pricing increases?
謝謝。我想從這裡開始,我們來談談中期財務目標。我想這裡的第一部分是,您對中期持續時間的定義是什麼,然後您能否討論一下銷量和價格上漲之間四到六個收入增長的根本因素?
Michael Simonds - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Simonds - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks for the question. It's Mike. And if I just take a quick step back, we thought it was really important to give the market and investors a sense of not just where we're going to be in 2025, but as we look out over the coming years past that, what's the rate of improvement that we see in terms of value creation and we did take a little bit of time to lay out the plans and the steps we're taking is a lot of confidence in our ability to step through that. But you know when we thought about exactly naming the duration, we thought we feel like We're going to learn a lot as we go through 2020, 2025.
謝謝你的提問。是麥克。如果我簡單回顧一下,我們認為讓市場和投資者了解我們在 2025 年將會達到什麼水平非常重要,而且展望未來幾年,我們在價值創造方面看到的改善率是多少,我們確實花了一點時間制定計劃,而我們正在採取的步驟表明我們對實現這一目標的能力充滿信心。但你知道,當我們考慮確切地命名持續時間時,我們認為我們覺得當我們經歷 2020 年、2025 年時,我們將學到很多東西。
What's the exact rate of improvement on the controllable inside of TriNet as well as those external as well. And so you know we've left it a little bit open in terms of the exact, so that duration of the medium term, but I can tell you if you think about the elements of the plans kind of get to the second part of your question, our confidence is a little bit different for reasons I think that are pretty intuitive. So if I took. The insurance cost cost ratio, our confidence is quite high there that we can manage that through our business and renewal, pricing over say the nextthreeyears back into the. A middle part of that targeted range, when you take, a volume driver like CIE, our confidence is, much less certain given that there's a lot that happens externally. And so we put in there with a kind of a very modest improvement, not all the way back to historical CIE norms, and we also provided more transparency to the market by giving you some sensitivity analysis around that. So I think it bodes well in terms of your question and that the repricing of insurance back into that middle of the range will be a substantial part of the revenue increase, but we also see volume, particularly as we get past 2025, starting to be a meaningful contributor over the long term.
TriNet 內部可控部分以及外部可控部分的改進率具體是多少?所以你知道,我們在確切的時間方面留有一點開放性,所以這是中期的持續時間,但我可以告訴你,如果你考慮計劃的各個要素,就會涉及到你問題的第二部分,我們的信心有點不同,我認為這是非常直觀的。所以如果我拿了。保險成本成本比率,我們對此非常有信心,我們可以在未來三年內透過業務和續保以及定價來管理這一比率。當採用 CIE 這樣的成交量驅動因素時,處於目標範圍的中間部分時,我們的信心就會變得不那麼確定,因為外部發生了很多事情。因此,我們對此進行了非常適度的改進,而不是完全回到歷史 CIE 規範,而且我們也透過對此進行一些敏感度分析,為市場提供了更多的透明度。所以我認為就你的問題而言,這是個好兆頭,保險重新定價回到中間水平將是收入增長的重要組成部分,但我們也看到,特別是當我們過了 2025 年,數量將開始成為長期有意義的貢獻者。
Jared Levine - Analyst
Jared Levine - Analyst
In terms of the ICR, can you give us an update in terms of the cost trends there in terms of how those trending? Did you see any further acceleration? I think on the prior earnings call you kind of pointed out a preliminary view for '25, around 90% or so. The current guide you just provided right now is right around 91%. Anything kind of different now versus last quarter in terms of this FY '25 view.
就 ICR 而言,您能否向我們介紹那裡的成本趨勢以及趨勢如何?你看到進一步的加速了嗎?我認為在先前的財報電話會議上您指出了對 25 年的初步看法,大約是 90% 左右。您剛才提供的當前指南大約是 91%。就 25 財年的觀點而言,現在與上一季相比有什麼不同嗎?
Michael Simonds - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Simonds - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
And we did sort of give our best view about 100 days ago around where we thought, 2025 was lining up and feeling like it was going to be relatively similar to how 2024 would end and kind of you sort of finished around 90%. We put out guidance today that put this kind of maybe 100 basis points to the midpoint of the guide this year. And in general I'd say, not a lot of material change. There is just going to be a little bit of things that we learn as we go through it, but I would just take a step back here and say, a year into the role our insurance capability is meaningfully better. We've carved that group out. We brought in strong leadership, actuarial talent.
大約 100 天前,我們確實給出了最佳預測,我們認為 2025 年將會到來,感覺它將與 2024 年的結束方式相對相似,並且已經完成了大約 90%。我們今天發布的指導意見將這個可能 100 個基點置於今年指導意見的中間點。總的來說,我認為不會有太多實質的改變。我們在經歷這個過程的過程中會學到一點點東西,但我只想退一步說,一年之後,我們的保險能力顯著提高。我們已經將該群體分化出去了。我們引進了強大的領導力和精算人才。
And just the granularity that we have on our forecast around medical costs, pharmaceutical cost trends, and where our customers are positioned relative to their risk is just much better than it was a year ago. And as we went through the prepared remarks, it's really good and hopefully investors take comfort in the fact that we don't have a broad issue to solve for in terms of that insurance cost ratio. It's a confined part of the book, about 15%, and again that that builds confidence that we're just getting better and better sort of understanding how risk is materializing and how we can manage it on a proactive basis.
我們對醫療成本、藥品成本趨勢以及客戶風險狀況的預測比一年前好得多。正如我們所準備好的發言一樣,我們的發言非常精彩,希望投資者能夠感到欣慰,因為我們在保險成本率方面不需要解決太大的問題。這是本書的一個有限的部分,大約 15%,這再次增強了我們的信心,即我們越來越清楚地了解風險是如何實現的,以及我們如何主動管理風險。
Jared Levine - Analyst
Jared Levine - Analyst
And if I could sneak in one more here, any other potential strategic changes planned over the near term or the potential for additional strategic changes over the medium term here?
如果我可以在這裡再偷偷說一句的話,那麼短期內還計劃有其他潛在的策略變化嗎?
Michael Simonds - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Simonds - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
I think we're in a really good spot and like we talked about, we're sort of fully cognizant that 2025 is a transition year and our guidance reflects the fact that it's a transition year, but our team, I define team broadly as we went through this strategic review, a broad group of leaders engaged on this. We look at a lot of different opportunities. We asked ourselves really tough questions and questions that frankly, many of you have been asking me over the last year and came out of it with a renewed sense of optimism around that SMB market. The value that we create with a comprehensive set of HR outsourcing solution and just the tailwinds that we have for this business. So I think as we work our way through 2025, treat our customers extremely fairly in the HRIS business as we exit and upsell to ASO, I think we're in a really good spot with the right plan, the right set of businesses, and the right channels opening up to drive growth over the long term.
我認為我們處於一個非常好的位置,正如我們談到的那樣,我們完全認識到 2025 年是一個過渡年,我們的指導反映了它是一個過渡年的事實,但我們的團隊,我對團隊的定義很廣泛,因為我們進行了這次戰略審查,有一群廣泛的領導者參與其中。我們正在考慮很多不同的機會。我們問了自己一些非常棘手的問題,坦白說,去年你們中的許多人也一直在問我這些問題,而這些問題讓我們對中小企業市場產生了新的樂觀態度。我們透過一套全面的人力資源外包解決方案所創造的價值以及我們為這項業務帶來的順風。因此,我認為,隨著我們努力邁向 2025 年,在退出並向 ASO 追加銷售的同時,在 HRIS 業務中極其公平地對待我們的客戶,我認為我們處於一個非常有利的位置,擁有正確的計劃、正確的業務組合和正確的渠道,以推動長期增長。
Jared Levine - Analyst
Jared Levine - Analyst
Great, thank you.
太好了,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from Kyle Peterson, Needham & Company.
下一個問題來自 Needham & Company 的 Kyle Peterson。
Kyle Peterson - Analyst
Kyle Peterson - Analyst
I know you guys are shifting, from quarterly to to the annual guide here, but, we just wanted to see if you guys could give us a little bit of help here to think about the seasonality, particularly in the first quarter of this year. Typically that's a. A good quarter seasonally for you know insurance costs as some of these deductibles reset but then I know there's some some repricing puts and takes so I guess is there any color you guys could give us on how you know this year's seasonality should unfold compared to historical levels at least kind of how you guys see things today?
我知道你們正在從季度指南轉向年度指南,但我們只是想看看你們是否能給我們一點幫助,讓我們考慮一下季節性,特別是今年第一季的季節性。通常這是一個。從季節性角度來看,對於保險成本而言這是一個不錯的季度,因為其中一些免賠額會進行重置,但我知道有一些重新定價的賣點和賣點,所以我想你們能否給我們提供一些信息,說明今年的季節性與歷史水平相比應該如何展開,至少你們今天是如何看待這種情況的?
Kelly Tuminelli - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Kelly Tuminelli - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
It's Kelly. I'd be happy to take that and good to hear from you. As we think about seasonality, Mike mentioned a few things around what we're doing from a repricing perspective that should put us in a great spot to to end the year and and jump into 2026. But we did provide some seasonal charts, while it has varied a little bit from year to year, the way that we think about it is roughly, if you pick a point on a full year guide, typically like the first quarter. Tends to be, on average abouttwopoints worse, and the fourth quarter tends or better rather, and the fourth quarter tends to be abouttwopoints worse, and so it averages out that way. The other thing though from a seasonality perspective I'd like to remind you. Is because of part of our professional service revenue comes from processing, unemployment fees, etc.
是凱利。我很高興接受這個並且很高興收到你的回覆。當我們考慮季節性時,麥克從重新定價的角度提到了我們正在做的一些事情,這些事情應該會讓我們在年底和 2026 年處於一個很好的位置。但是我們確實提供了一些季節性圖表,雖然每年都略有不同,但我們對此的看法大致是,如果你在全年指南中選擇一個點,通常例如第一季。平均而言,通常會下降約 2 個百分點,而第四季則會下降或更好,第四季則會下降約 2 個百分點,因此平均而言就是這樣。不過,從季節性的角度來看,我想提醒你另一件事。是因為我們的專業服務收入有一部分來自於加工、失業補助等等。
The PSR tends to be a little bit more front loaded in the first quarter because of different varying state wage bases and things like that. So hopefully that's helpful.
由於各州工資基數不同等因素,PSR 在第一季往往會前期投入更多。希望這會有所幫助。
Kyle Peterson - Analyst
Kyle Peterson - Analyst
Okay, that is very helpful here and then, as a follow up, just want to see how should we think about, in WSEs for the year I know with the tech fee going away I know there's a tailwind to to WSE's last year. I'm assuming that'll, can reverse this year but if you could remind us on. What that impact will be and how we should think about it at least based on the the CIE assumptions in the guide that'd be great?
好的,這非常有幫助,然後,作為後續問題,只是想看看我們應該如何看待今年的 WSE,我知道隨著技術費的取消,我知道 WSE 去年會迎來順風。我假設今年可能會逆轉,但如果你能提醒我們的話。這種影響會是什麼?
Kelly Tuminelli - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Kelly Tuminelli - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah, it's a great question, and that probably is one of the bigger impacts on our overall professional service revenue guide for the year. So we are anticipating WSU to be down year-over-year and it's really a combination of a couple factors. One, We want to make sure we're pricing our products based on the risk that we see in the market right now. We are assuming a double digit, health cost increase and want to make sure that we're anticipating that so we can get our ICR back into the range, in the future and, so that is going to have a drag in the first quarter for sure.
是的,這是一個很好的問題,這可能是我們今年整體專業服務收入指南的較大影響之一。因此,我們預計 WSU 的銷售額將同比下降,這實際上是多種因素共同作用的結果。首先,我們要確保我們的產品定價是基於我們目前在市場上看到的風險。我們假設醫療成本將以兩位數的速度增長,並希望確保我們能夠預測到這一點,以便我們將來能夠將 ICR 恢復到正常範圍內,因此,這肯定會對第一季產生拖累。
Then if you think about it, our CIE assumption is pretty similar to 2024. So, like I said in the prepared remarks, we were up about 1%, a little over 1% in 2024, and we're not expecting much improvement over that. Then when it comes to, attrition, we had a record year last year was great, really good retention year. But we are anticipating that to take up about one to two points, which obviously puts a little bit of pressure on volume as well. So that's going to create about a $35 million to $40 million dollar headwind on professional service revenue for the year.
如果你仔細想想,我們的 CIE 假設與 2024 年非常相似。因此,就像我在準備好的發言中所說的那樣,到 2024 年,我們的成長率約為 1%,略高於 1%,而且我們預計不會有太大改善。然後說到人員流動,去年我們創下了歷史新高,是非常好的員工留任年。但我們預計這將佔用大約一到兩個點,這顯然也會對交易量造成一點壓力。因此,這將對今年的專業服務收入造成約 3,500 萬至 4,000 萬美元的阻力。
Kyle Peterson - Analyst
Kyle Peterson - Analyst
Okay, appreciate all of the color and detail, thank you.
好的,欣賞所有的色彩和細節,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
(Operator instructions)
(操作員指令)
Our next question comes from Andrew Nicholas, William Blair.
下一個問題來自威廉布萊爾的安德魯·尼古拉斯。
Andrew Nicholas - Analyst
Andrew Nicholas - Analyst
Thanks for taking my question.
感謝您回答我的問題。
I guess to start, just wanted to confirm on the medium term plan, should we be looking at that in those kind of growth rates relative to '24 or 2025? Just want to make sure I think you said 2024 is the baseline, but obviously makes a decent bit of difference on the earnings growth figure if we're using '24 versus '25.
首先,我想確認一下中期計劃,我們是否應該考慮相對於 2024 年或 2025 年的成長率?我只是想確保你所說的 2024 年是基準,但如果我們使用 24 年而不是 25 年,獲利成長數字顯然會有相當大的差異。
Michael Simonds - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Simonds - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
It is 2024. And good morning Andrew. Then maybe a question on the health of the customer, how customer conversations kind of trended over the past couple months, I think depending on where you look there are some signs of overall SMB optimism out there just curious if you have any commentary on what you're hearing from clients and if there's any color you could provide at the vertical level too besides, I think Kelly, you mentioned a little bit better financial services growth in your comparative marks just any more insight there would be great.
現在是 2024 年。早安,安德魯。然後也許有一個關於客戶健康狀況的問題,過去幾個月客戶對話的趨勢如何,我認為取決於你從哪裡看,那裡有一些中小企業整體樂觀的跡象,只是好奇你是否對從客戶那裡聽到的內容有任何評論,以及你是否可以在垂直層面提供任何顏色,此外,我認為凱利,你提到你的比較分數中的金融服務增長稍微好一些,如果有更多的見解太好了。
Yeah, sure, so I'd say the tone of conversation as I'm spending time with our customers and with our channel partners is markedly improved and certainly post-election we saw that. The sense of at least understanding a belief that things would settle in and that we'd be in a more business friendly climate, I think, pretty broadly and pretty consistently that that's been the sentiment and that's materially different I'd say than where we were sitting a year ago. So I think there's reasons for some optimism.
是的,當然,所以我想說,當我與我們的客戶和通路合作夥伴共度時光時,談話的語氣明顯改善了,當然在選舉後我們看到了這一點。我認為,至少要理解一種信念,即事情會安定下來,我們將處於一個更加有利於商業的環境之中,這種信念是相當廣泛和相當一貫的,這一直是一種情緒,而且我認為這與一年前的情況有著實質性的不同。因此我認為我們有理由感到樂觀。
I think our plan, as Kelly laid out, really doesn't bet on an increase in net customer hiring. We're here and there's I think a good chart in the materials, but we're still sitting at what is a very historical low to what is pretty usually a really important part of our business model that net customer hiring.
我認為,正如凱利所闡述的,我們的計劃實際上並不依賴淨客戶僱用量的增加。我認為我們現在看到了材料中的一個很好的圖表,但我們仍然處於歷史最低點,而這通常是我們商業模式中非常重要的一部分,即淨客戶招募。
They continue to watch, all the verticals and we do see actually, reasons for optimism in a few spots, but actually when I take a step back and look at it really across like sciences, technology, financial services. Nowhere near what we would expect from a net hiring point of view, which sort of speaks less to anything that's vertical in nature and more just a broad-based pressures around and a little bit of caution around finance costs, new business starts, and the relative balance from venture capital and private equity around, conserving cash versus investing in growth. So, a little bit more optimistic but not seeing it in the numbers just yet.
他們繼續關注所有垂直行業,我們確實看到一些令人樂觀的理由,但實際上,當我退一步並從科學、技術、金融服務等角度來看待它時。從淨招聘的角度來看,這遠遠沒有達到我們的預期,這在某種程度上說明的不是垂直性質的因素,更多的是廣泛的壓力和對融資成本、新業務啟動以及風險資本和私募股權的相對平衡(保存現金與投資增長)的一點謹慎。因此,稍微樂觀一點,但目前還沒有從數字上看到這一點。
Kelly Tuminelli - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Kelly Tuminelli - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yeah, and the only thing I'd add to that, Andrew, is we look at the verticals overall and I look at it kind of on a full year basis, I mentioned the bright spot in financial services. It's probably in the mid single digit level CIE year-over-year even though the total was, just over 1%. The other, in tech we saw a significant declines last year, whereas it really seems to be levelling off and slightly positive this year for 2024.
是的,安德魯,我唯一要補充的是,我們整體上看垂直產業,我從全年的角度來看,我提到了金融服務業的亮點。儘管總量剛超過 1%,但與去年同期相比,CIE 的增幅可能處於中等個位數水準。另一方面,去年我們看到科技領域出現了大幅下滑,而今年對於 2024 年似乎確實趨於平穩並略有積極趨勢。
Andrew Nicholas - Analyst
Andrew Nicholas - Analyst
Great and thank you and could I, if I could squeeze one more in just on on the guidance. Specifically related to ICR guidance, can you kind of walk us through. How you're thinking about kind of top and bottom and what what drives you to each end and maybe conservatism broadly because it sounds like versus a couple of months ago, utilization trends haven't changed meaningfully so I just want to make sure I understand kind of what the risk is, to performance below, the lower end of that guy.
非常好,謝謝您,我是否可以再擠出一點時間來進行指導。具體與 ICR 指導相關,您能否向我們介紹一下。您如何看待頂部和底部,以及是什麼驅使您走向兩端,也許是廣義上的保守主義,因為這聽起來與幾個月前相比,利用率趨勢並沒有發生重大變化,所以我只是想確保我理解了低於該端的表現的風險是什麼。
Michael Simonds - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Simonds - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sure, and maybe I'll start with it, but. So I think it really just is important to say we are better than we were a year ago and so the data that we're using, the discipline in the process, the people that are that are running and applying that process is our confidence continues to grow, and I am sure a year from now we will have improved materially from there. The 1,993 is our best point of view. I would tell you as we looked at incurred claims data over the last several months. It's encouraging to us. It's materializing in ways that are quite consistent with the assumptions that we put into the guide and put into our pricing plan.
當然,也許我會從它開始,但是。因此,我認為真正重要的是說我們比一年前更好,因此,我們使用的數據、流程中的紀律、運行和應用該流程的人員讓我們的信心不斷增長,我相信一年後我們將有實質性的進步。1993 是我們最好的觀點。當我們查看過去幾個月發生的索賠數據時,我會告訴你。這對我們來說是令人鼓舞的。它的實現方式與我們在指南和定價計劃中提出的假設非常一致。
The things that would take us to the top end to this specific question and above that top end potentially would be to see a continued acceleration. In the health care cost inflation trend, and that's not what we're seeing over the last several months, so that is that is encouraging. We would need to see the curve begin to bend in terms of rate increase or rate of increase, and it's too early to say that, but that kind of move will put us towards the favorable into that guy.
對於這個特定問題,讓我們到達最高點並可能超越最高點的事情是看到持續的加速。在醫療保健成本通膨趨勢方面,這並不是我們過去幾個月所看到的情況,所以這是令人鼓舞的。我們需要看到利率或成長率的曲線開始彎曲,現在說這個還為時過早,但這種舉措將使我們對那個人有利。
Andrew Nicholas - Analyst
Andrew Nicholas - Analyst
Great, thanks so much.
太好了,非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Next we have a question from David Grossman, Stifel.
接下來是來自 Stifel 的 David Grossman 的問題。
David Grossman - Analyst
David Grossman - Analyst
I'm wondering if I could just go, higher level as we think about CIE, beyond 2025. Is it still realistic and reasonable to assume that given your business model relative to two of your peers and two of the bigger peers in the market, that it's probably unrealistic to think that your, WC growth would really parallel theirs given the mechanics of how they grow their businesses, despite all the great improvements that you've made and some of those that are still coming. I just wanted to check on that to make sure that, our expectations are in line with, the business model itself.
我想知道我是否可以在考慮 2025 年以後的 CIE 時達到更高的水平。考慮到你們的業務模式相對於兩家同行以及市場上兩家較大的同行,儘管你們已經做出了巨大改進並且一些改進還在進行中,但考慮到他們的業務增長機制,認為你們 WC 的增長實際上會與他們的平行,這種假設仍然現實且合理嗎?我只是想檢查一下,以確保我們的期望與商業模式本身相符。
Michael Simonds - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Simonds - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks for the question. If you look at the CIE, the data that we lay out sort of gives you a good sense for, what we've experienced over a 10 year period, and certainly there's volatility to that, but it's, I think a very reasonable assumption to say, CIE that sits somewhere in the high singles a very low double digit is a reasonable long term assumption.
謝謝你的提問。如果您看一下 CIE,我們列出的數據可以讓您很好地了解我們在過去 10 年中的經歷,當然其中存在波動,但我認為這是一個非常合理的假設,即 CIE 位於高個位數和非常低的兩位數之間是一個合理的長期假設。
What we've chosen to do in terms of building into our medium term outlook is just sort of a gradual reversion towards that into sort of the mid single digit range and providing some sensitivities if it gets better or if it gets worse than that. I really don't see a systemic reason to expect that the long run for our targeted part of the SMB market is going to sort of has sort of materially changed or shifted, beyond what we've seen historically. We just didn't want to make a bet on a full reversion at this point.
在製定中期展望時,我們選擇做的是逐漸回歸到中等個位數範圍,並且如果情況變好或變壞,提供一些敏感性數據。我確實沒有看到系統性的理由來預期我們所針對的中小企業市場部分的長期發展將發生超出我們歷史所見的實質變化或轉變。我們只是不想在這個時候打賭會出現全面回歸。
I think the other piece and you and others have asked great questions here in my first year about what about new sales and bringing in volume growth by by growing the customer base, and I am very excited about the work that's underway with our revenue team. Driving the maturity when we went externally as part of the strategy where we've grown our sales force materially, but we've we've gone up and down in terms of the count and we've added a lot of new people and so our average tenure benchmarks low relative to the industry and that may be part of, when you look at us relative to peers, some of those results.
我認為另一部分以及您和其他人在我的第一年提出了很好的問題,關於新銷售額以及如何透過擴大客戶群來實現銷售成長,我對我們的收入團隊正在進行的工作感到非常興奮。作為策略的一部分,當我們走向外部時,我們不斷推動銷售隊伍的成熟,我們的銷售隊伍得到了實質性的增長,但人數卻時高時低,我們增加了很多新員工,因此我們的平均任期基準相對於行業而言較低,當您將我們與同行進行比較時,這可能是我們取得的部分成果。
So the combination of really investing and maturing our sales team on the direct front and growing that employee benefits brokerage, I think has a real opportunity for us to tap into what I think is a really exciting and under penetrated market, and it's going to take a little bit of time that doesn't happen overnight.
因此,我認為,透過真正的投資和完善我們的直接銷售團隊以及發展員工福利經紀業務,我們可以真正有機會進入我認為真正令人興奮且滲透不足的市場,但這需要一點時間,而並非一朝一夕就能實現。
But yeah, no, I would not concede the point that TriNet's growth in WSEs would lag the industry in the long term.
但是,是的,不,我不會承認 TriNet 在華爾街英語的成長從長遠來看會落後於行業。
David Grossman - Analyst
David Grossman - Analyst
Okay, so structurally, you don't think there's a limitation there when you look at the differences in the models.
好的,從結構上講,當您查看模型的差異時,您不會認為那裡有限制。
Michael Simonds - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Simonds - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
No, I really don't. And we think about this back to the medium term guide, this is a fantastic business model and it's durable. And so there's real growth just as we reprice this business in a measured thoughtful way back into the targeted range. I think there's an upside to our retention over time as we invest in our delivery model with technology.
不,我確實不知道。我們回顧中期指南,這是一個非常棒的商業模式,而且是持久的。因此,當我們以慎重周到的方式將這項業務重新定價至目標範圍時,就會實現真正的成長。我認為,隨著我們利用科技對交付模式進行投資,隨著時間的推移,我們的保留率會有所提高。
And then you start to layer in volume growth again, things we can control on the new sales front and for me the less dependent we are on CIE in terms of delivering sustained consistent, predictable growth, the better job we're doing, that.
然後你開始再次分層考慮銷售成長,這是我們在新的銷售方面可以控制的事情,對我來說,在實現持續、一致、可預測的成長方面,我們對 CIE 的依賴越少,我們做得就越好。
David Grossman - Analyst
David Grossman - Analyst
Right. So just to that point about new sales growth, I guess you raised two points in your prepared remarks. One was conversion of HRIS to the ASO model and as well as channel partners, which is something you've talked quite a bit about, since you've been there. So, maybe you could talk about first on the channel partners.
正確的。關於新銷售成長,我想您在準備好的演講中提出了兩點。一是將 HRIS 轉換為 ASO 模型,以及通路合作夥伴,自從您加入以來,您已經談論過很多次這個主題。所以,也許您可以先談談通路合作夥伴。
What is a realistic timeline do you think it is to really engage with that segment of the market to really start driving incremental volume and what is it going to take really for you to penetrate that channel to really the broker channel that is to really become an advocate for trying to?
您認為真正參與該細分市場並開始推動增量的現實時間表是什麼?
Michael Simonds - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Simonds - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, It's encouraging that we've already got some momentum in the employee benefits brokerage channels, so it's contributing a meaningful part of our new business already today. But we do see a lot of upside, and again, as we went through the strategic review and looked at how much of the S&B market is fully benefited and fully benefited via a trusted advisor on the employee benefit broker side. That became very increasingly clear to us that one that that's a very efficient, effective channel for us two, there's secular trends on the brokerage side that are very supportive of partnership with the PEO model, so. The average employee benefit broker is seeing the cost to serve a small business move up dramatically. They are expected to bring benefit administration technology as part of their offering. They're expected to bring compliance support. They're expected to do all that in a capitated commission environment very often.
是的,令人鼓舞的是,我們在員工福利經紀管道中已經取得了一些進展,因此它已經為我們今天的新業務做出了有意義的貢獻。但我們確實看到了很多上行空間,而且,當我們進行策略評估並觀察 S&B 市場有多少獲得了充分受益,以及有多少透過員工福利經紀方面值得信賴的顧問獲得了充分受益時。我們越來越清楚地認識到,這對我們雙方來說是一個非常有效率的、有效的管道,經紀方面的長期趨勢非常支持與 PEO 模式的合作,所以。一般員工福利經紀人發現為小型企業提供服務的成本急劇上升。他們預計將福利管理技術作為其產品的一部分。預計他們將帶來合規支援。他們通常需要在按人頭計算的佣金環境中完成所有這些工作。
So they're looking for answers on how to profitably serve the small businesses. I think that the PEO model and what TriNet brings with a really strong service brand is a perfect fit. We do, it's going to take us some time to fully optimize this channel because, one, we need to invest in the technology. That starts treating employee benefit brokers not as referral partners but as trusted advisors that have access and insight to the clients that they refer into China over time. And so again, that the Xenops technology brings us a fantastic opportunity. It's really the backbone of the investments we're making to open that channel up fully and embrace them, benefit brokers, high quality benefit brokers as partners through the process.
因此,他們正在尋找如何為小型企業提供有利可圖的服務的答案。我認為 PEO 模式和 TriNet 所帶來的真正強大的服務品牌是完美契合的。是的,我們需要一些時間來完全優化這個管道,因為首先,我們需要在技術上進行投資。這開始將員工福利經紀人視為值得信賴的顧問,而不是推薦合作夥伴,他們可以接觸並了解他們長期推薦到中國的客戶。所以,Xenops 技術再次為我們帶來了絕佳的機會。這實際上是我們進行投資的支柱,以便充分開放該管道並在整個過程中接納福利經紀人、高品質福利經紀人作為合作夥伴。
So I'm excited about how that's going to materialize already momentum building over the next few years.
所以我很興奮地看到這一趨勢將如何在未來幾年內實現。
David Grossman - Analyst
David Grossman - Analyst
How much does the broker channel contribute to your new sales right now just as a percentage around numbers?
目前經紀人通路對您的新銷售的貢獻是多少(以百分比表示)?
Michael Simonds - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Simonds - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, it varies a bit quarter to quarter, but in general it's well into the double digits for us, and we see that growing, although I will say that the direct channel is and will remain over the medium term period our most important go to market motion.
是的,每個季度都會有點不同,但總體來說,我們的成長率已經達到了兩位數,而且我們看到了成長,不過我想說的是,直接通路現在是、並且在中期內仍將是我們的最重要的市場進入方式。
David Grossman - Analyst
David Grossman - Analyst
Got it. And just one last question, like if I could just on the ASL. Maybe you could just walk us through very quickly, what impact that could have on your business overall, given, it's different than the PEO model and how that flows through to the financials if that business really gains momentum?
知道了。最後一個問題,我是否可以使用 ASL 來回答。也許您可以快速地向我們介紹一下,考慮到它與 PEO 模型的不同,這會對您的整體業務產生什麼影響,以及如果您的業務真正獲得發展動力,這會如何影響財務?
Michael Simonds - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Simonds - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
We're excited about the possibility there, and I'll be honestly with you, David, it's sometimes I think we do ourselves a little bit of a disservice by putting too too strong a name to the PEO product, and the reality is the business that we're in is high value add comprehensive HR outsourcing. And so whether that's all the way through to what a traditional PBO product looks like, where we start potentially, where the risk doesn't match unbundling some of the insured products and helping customers through their brokers source those in open market all the way to a strong, $50 to $60 on ASO offering. We really see it as sort of a continuum in that part of the market, that high value add comprehensive service, so. Yeah, no, we're pretty excited about building a bit more flexibility into our processes and technology. I think ASO could be potentially a really exciting part of that.
我們對這種可能性感到非常興奮,而且我會坦誠地告訴你,大衛,有時我認為我們給 PEO 產品起得太強的名字會對我們自己造成一點傷害,而現實是,我們從事的業務是高附加價值的綜合人力資源外包。因此,這是否一直到傳統 PBO 產品的樣子,我們從哪裡開始,風險不匹配拆分一些保險產品,並幫助客戶透過他們的經紀人在公開市場上採購這些產品,一直到強勁的 50 至 60 美元的 ASO 產品。我們確實將其視為該市場部分的一種連續體,即高附加價值的綜合服務。是的,我們非常高興能夠在我們的流程和技術中建立更多的靈活性。我認為 ASO 可能會成為其中真正令人興奮的一部分。
David Grossman - Analyst
David Grossman - Analyst
Got it. All right, great, thanks very much for that insight and good luck.
知道了。好的,太好了,非常感謝您的見解,祝您好運。
Operator
Operator
We have no further questions, so I'll pass you back to my assignments for closing comments.
我們沒有其他問題了,所以我將把你們交還給我的任務,以便你們做最後評論。
Michael Simonds - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Michael Simonds - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
All right, let me thank you all once again for taking the time to join us this morning, and I know Kelly and I&I will be spending time with many of you over the coming weeks to continue the dialogue, and thank you, Lydia, for your help this morning. And with that, we'll conclude the call.
好的,讓我再次感謝大家今天早上抽出時間加入我們,我知道凱利和 I&I 將在接下來的幾週內與你們中的許多人一起繼續對話,並感謝莉迪亞今天上午的幫助。至此,我們就結束本次通話。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. This concludes our call today. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your line.
謝謝。今天的通話到此結束。感謝您的加入。現在您可以斷開線路了。