使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good morning. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to Cathy Yao, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations for T-Mobile US. Please go ahead.
早安。(接線員指示) 現在我想把電話會議交給 T-Mobile US 投資人關係資深副總裁 Cathy Yao。請開始。
Cathy Yao - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Cathy Yao - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Good morning. Welcome to T-Mobile's second-quarter 2026 earnings call. Joining me on our call today are Srini Gopalan, our President and CEO; Peter Osvaldik, our CFO, as well as other members of the leadership team.
早安。歡迎參加 T-Mobile 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。今天與會的有我們的總裁兼執行長 Srini Gopalan、財務長 Peter Osvaldik,以及領導團隊的其他成員。
During this call, we will make forward-looking statements, which involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. We encourage you to review the risk factors set forth in our SEC filings. Our earnings release, investors' factbook and other documents related to our results, as well as reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP results discussed on this call can be found on our Investor Relations website.
在本次電話會議中,我們將作出前瞻性陳述,其中涉及風險與不確定性,可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。我們鼓勵各位查閱我們向 SEC 提交文件中所列的風險因素。我們的財報新聞稿、投資人資料手冊以及其他與本次業績相關的文件,還有本次電話會議所討論之 GAAP 與非 GAAP 結果之間的調節表,均可在我們的投資人關係網站上找到。
With that, let me now turn it over to Srini.
接下來,我把時間交給 Srini。
Srini Gopalan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Srini Gopalan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Cathy, and good morning, everyone. We're here in New York City today, excited to discuss our results. Q2 was another extraordinary quarter of executing on our strategy and delivering against the ambitious goals we set out at our February Capital Markets Day update.
謝謝你,Cathy,各位早安。我們今天在紐約市,很高興與各位討論我們的業績。第二季是我們執行策略、並達成我們在二月資本市場日更新中所設定之雄心目標的又一個非凡季度。
Our strategy is simple, but truly powerful: give customers the best network, the best value, and the best experience, all in one place. That's how we eliminate trade-offs for our customers, and that's what truly sets us apart. Nothing demonstrates this better than our NPS, a record high 46 this quarter.
我們的策略很簡單,但確實強大:在同一個地方為客戶提供最佳網路、最佳價值與最佳體驗。這就是我們如何為客戶消除取捨,也正是我們真正與眾不同之處。沒有什麼比我們的 NPS 更能證明這一點——本季創下歷史新高 46 分。
Let me pause on that for a second, because that 46 represents the highest NPS in wireless ever across the big three carriers. And it is, of course, well ahead of the competition. This differentiation is why we outgrow the industry time and time again, and we did it again in Q2.
我想在這裡稍作停留,因為 46 分代表在三大電信業者中,無線業務史上最高的 NPS。而且當然,遠遠領先競爭對手。正是這種差異化,讓我們一次又一次地跑贏產業成長,而我們在第二季再次做到了。
In the wireless space, we continue to see a substantial opportunity. Of more than 20 million families and businesses who are network seekers and not yet with T-Mobile. With the best network in America, we have an unparalleled right to win with these customers.
在無線領域,我們仍看到龐大的機會。在超過 2,000 萬個家庭與企業中,有許多是「尋找更好網路」的客戶,且尚未選擇 T-Mobile。憑藉美國最佳網路,我們擁有無可比擬的勝出優勢來贏得這些客戶。
This quarter, the highest percentage ever of network seeking prospects ranked T-Mobile number one on having an extremely reliable network and as a completely trusted brand. This is why we grew our postpaid share of households yet again across every single cohort within the top 100 markets and also in smaller markets and rural areas.
本季,尋找網路的潛在客戶中,史上最高比例將 T-Mobile 排名第一,認為我們擁有極其可靠的網路,並且是完全值得信賴的品牌。這也是為什麼我們在前 100 大市場的每一個客群中,以及較小市場與鄉村地區,再次提升了我們的後付費家庭市占。
Let me double-click on smaller markets and rural areas. These markets represent 40% approximately of the population, and we have lots of room to run at this opportunity with just 24% total share of households. This opportunity is supercharged by our acquisition of UScellular last year, and the integration is going great.
我再深入談談較小市場與鄉村地區。這些市場約占人口的 40%,而我們目前家庭總市占僅 24%,在這個機會上仍有很大的成長空間。我們去年收購 UScellular 讓這個機會更具動能,而整合進展非常順利。
Our share in T-Mobile for Business gives us that same kind of runway. This quarter, we continue to take share with a network superiority-led value proposition. Our nationwide 5G advanced network continue to drive new TAM creation through advanced network solutions, subsequently leading to traditional voice and broadband sales.
我們在 T-Mobile for Business 的市占也為我們提供了同樣的成長跑道。本季,我們持續以「網路領先」所帶動的價值主張來擴大市占。我們的全國性 5G 進階網路持續透過進階網路解決方案創造新的 TAM,進而帶動傳統語音與寬頻銷售。
And I'm also really excited to welcome Chris Sambar to T-Mobile as our Chief Enterprise Officer, who will help further supercharge growth here. Chris will be joining us in August.
我也非常高興歡迎 Chris Sambar 加入 T-Mobile,擔任我們的企業事業長(Chief Enterprise Officer),他將協助進一步加速這裡的成長。Chris 將於八月到任。
Turning now to broadband. It wasn't that long ago some competitors were calling 5G broadband cellphone internet. Today, it's the most exciting evolution in broadband technology in a long, long time. It has consistently produced industry-leading growth, and we have so much more runway left here.
接著談寬頻。不久前,一些競爭對手還把 5G 寬頻稱作「手機網路的網際網路」。而今天,它已成為長久以來寬頻技術最令人振奮的演進。它持續帶來業界領先的成長,而我們在這裡仍有很長的成長跑道。
5G broadband has rapidly become a premium broadband offering in the marketplace. In fact, with our latest generation router coupled with our network, we're delivering download speeds roughly equivalent to fiber to the home when both are used over Wi-Fi, which is how the vast majority of customers experience broadband. That is truly impressive.
5G 寬頻已迅速成為市場上的高端寬頻方案。事實上,搭配我們最新一代路由器與網路,在兩者都透過 Wi‑Fi 使用時,我們提供的下載速度大致相當於光纖到府(FTTH)——而這正是絕大多數客戶體驗寬頻的方式。這確實令人印象深刻。
And both the network and CPE technology continue to rapidly evolve. It's no wonder our 5G broadband offering leads the industry in customer experience, including winning J.D. Power's number one in Customer Satisfaction. That's also why we've consistently been the fastest-growing ISP in the country, including in Q2. And this industry-leading growth has come with very healthy ARPUs.
而且網路與 CPE 技術都在持續快速演進。難怪我們的 5G 寬頻方案在客戶體驗方面領先業界,包括在 J.D. Power 的客戶滿意度評比中奪得第一名。這也是為什麼我們一直是全美成長最快的 ISP,本季第二季亦然。而這種業界領先的成長,同時也伴隨非常健康的 ARPU。
As we approach 2027 and '28, there will be even more spectrum availability, reflecting the stewardship of Chairman Carr and his commitment to American 6G leadership. This will unlock even greater capacity that will be deployed under our fallow capacity model.
隨著我們接近 2027 與 2028 年,將會有更多頻譜可用,這反映了 Carr 主席的監督管理以及他對美國 6G 領導地位的承諾。這將釋放更大的容量,並將在我們的閒置容量(fallow capacity)模型下加以部署。
Putting it all together, our unmatched value proposition drove post-paid net account additions of 277,000 in Q2, alongside 2% ARPA growth year-over-year, a really strong result. We continued to bring new families and businesses to T-Mobile in a durable and profitable way, with CLVs in Q2 up healthy double-digits over last year.
綜合來看,我們無與倫比的價值主張在第二季帶動後付費淨新增帳戶 277,000 戶,同時 ARPA 年增 2%,這是非常強勁的成果。我們持續以可持續且具獲利性的方式,將新的家庭與企業帶到 T-Mobile;第二季的 CLV 較去年健康地呈現雙位數成長。
In addition, port and ARPAs continue to exceed port-out ARPAs by approximately 20%. This is another highlight of our unrivaled value proposition, with over 60% of customers on new accounts selecting our premium plans.
此外,攜入(port-in)客戶與其 ARPA 仍持續比攜出(port-out)客戶的 ARPA 高出約 20%。這是我們無可匹敵價值主張的另一個亮點,超過 60% 的新開戶客戶選擇了我們的高階方案。
Our adjacencies, T-Ads and Financial Services, continue to add incremental growth, leveraging our brand and ecosystem. I'm really excited to share that our T-Mobile Visa credit card launch was one of the most successful co-branded launches for Capital One, and we're on track to rank amongst Capital One's leading co-brand programs in terms of new accounts.
我們的相鄰業務——T-Ads 與金融服務——持續利用我們的品牌與生態系帶來增量成長。我也非常興奮地分享,我們的 T-Mobile Visa 信用卡上市,成為 Capital One 最成功的聯名卡上市之一;就新開戶數而言,我們正朝著躋身 Capital One 領先聯名計畫之列的目標前進。
Most importantly, we will not stop. We're not standing still. Our network keeps winning accolades from third-party providers even as we continue to invest in it. Let me double-click into both. For the third straight time, we won the Best Mobile Network by Ookla.
最重要的是,我們不會停下腳步。我們不會原地踏步。即使我們持續投資網路,我們的網路仍不斷獲得第三方機構的肯定。我想更深入談談這兩點。我們連續第三次獲得 Ookla 評選的「最佳行動網路」。
We also swept every single subcategory across Opensignal's Quality of Experience and Network Performance awards, making us their most awarded mobile network over the last five years. In addition, P3, a global crowdsourced data benchmarking company using real people and real devices, awarded us the US Test Champion, sweeping the national benchmark for all 13 categories tested, including AI Services Champion.
我們也在 Opensignal 的「體驗品質」與「網路效能」獎項中橫掃所有子類別,使我們成為其過去五年獲獎最多的行動網路。此外,P3——一家使用真實用戶與真實裝置、以群眾外包數據進行基準測試的全球公司——授予我們「美國測試冠軍」,在全國基準測試的 13 個受測類別中全數奪冠,其中包括「AI 服務冠軍」。
Turning now to our ongoing investments into our network, we continue to push the envelope of what's possible. In Q2, we rolled out live translation on beta. This is our first network-native AI application, embedding AI models directly into our core.
接著談我們對網路的持續投資,我們不斷突破可能性的邊界。在第二季,我們推出了即時翻譯的 Beta 測試。這是我們第一個網路原生的 AI 應用,將 AI 模型直接嵌入我們的核心網路。
Longer-term, we believe our network will become the connective tissue for physical AI with inferencing at the edge. I am so excited by the opportunity here, highlighting what a low-latency, high-capacity network can deliver. We continue to partner with key industry leaders here, including Figure AI.
從更長期來看,我們相信我們的網路將成為實體 AI 的連結組織,並在邊緣進行推論。我對這裡的機會感到非常興奮,這凸顯了低延遲、高容量網路所能帶來的價值。我們也持續與關鍵產業領導者合作,包括 Figure AI。
Now on value, something we guard zealously, we continue to lead the industry while ensuring that customers are able to take advantage of America's best network. Our back-book pricing remains a clear advantage to our differentiated growth strategy.
最後談價值——這是我們極力守護的核心——我們持續引領產業,同時確保客戶能夠享受到美國最佳網路。我們對既有客群(back-book)的定價仍是我們差異化成長策略的一項明顯優勢。
We continue to abide by the more-for-more philosophy. One example of this is our recent initiative where we modernize legacy rate plans to ensure all of our customers can benefit from our great nationwide 5G advanced network.
我們持續秉持「更多換更多」(more-for-more)的理念。其中一個例子是我們近期推動的計畫:將既有的舊式資費方案現代化,確保所有客戶都能受惠於我們卓越的全國性 5G Advanced 網路。
On customer experience, we're continuing to meet the customer where they want, while driving digital transformation to further enhance the experience. 10 years ago, we launched T-Mobile Tuesdays because we deeply believe that here at T-Mobile, we don't think customers should have to prove loyalty but rather receive thankings from us just by being a customer.
在客戶體驗方面,我們持續在客戶想要的地方與其互動,同時推動數位轉型以進一步提升體驗。10 年前,我們推出了 T-Mobile Tuesdays,因為我們深信在 T-Mobile,客戶不需要證明忠誠度;相反地,只要成為我們的客戶,就應該獲得我們的回饋與感謝。
In June, we celebrated that milestone with Member Month, which was a tremendous success that truly underscored the spirit of the un-carrier. We rolled out many new member benefits and brought back old favorites from the Delta Premium in-flight beverage on us to free DashPass for a year to gas for $1.99 per gallon at select Shell gas stations. This drove record momentum in T-Life usage and we ended the quarter with over 30 million monthly active users.
6 月,我們以「會員月」(Member Month)慶祝這個里程碑,成果非常亮眼,真正彰顯了 Un-carrier 的精神。我們推出了許多新的會員福利,也讓一些經典回歸——從達美航空尊榮艙(Delta Premium)機上飲品由我們買單,到免費使用 DashPass 一年,再到在指定 Shell 加油站每加侖 1.99 美元的汽油。這帶動了 T-Life 使用量創下紀錄的動能,我們在本季末的月活躍用戶超過 3,000 萬。
Pulling it all together, this differentiation is what drives industry-leading financial growth, and we delivered again across every key metric in Q2. Postpaid service revenue, up 13%, total service revenue, up 9%, both at multiples to our competition. Core adjusted EBITDA, up 12%, with industry-leading free cash flow margin of 25%.
綜合來看,正是這種差異化推動了業界領先的財務成長,而我們在第二季也再次在每一項關鍵指標上交出成績。後付費服務營收成長 13%,總服務營收成長 9%,兩者都以倍數領先競爭對手。核心調整後 EBITDA 成長 12%,自由現金流利潤率達到業界領先的 25%。
This is what this team does, deliver day in and day out. Our results speak for themselves, as you can see with our industry-leading NPS. What fuels that differentiation is the incredible future-proofed asset base we've built and our willingness to continue to invest to build it. And this is only just the beginning.
這就是這個團隊日復一日所做的事——持續交付成果。我們的成績不言自明,從我們業界領先的 NPS 就可見一斑。驅動這種差異化的,是我們打造出的令人驚豔、具備前瞻性的資產基礎,以及我們願意持續投資建設它的決心。而這才只是開始。
Peter, over to you.
Peter,交給你。
Peter Osvaldik - Chief Financial Officer
Peter Osvaldik - Chief Financial Officer
All right. Thank you, Srini. As you can see, we had a fabulous Q2, which reinforces our strong guidance for the remainder of the year, so let me add some additional color, starting with accounts, where we continue to expect postpaid account net additions to be between $950,000 and $1,050,000 on the strength of the underlying momentum in the business.
好的。謝謝你,Srini。如各位所見,我們第二季表現非常出色,這也強化了我們對今年剩餘期間的強勁指引。接下來我補充一些細節,先從帳戶數談起:基於業務基本面動能的強勁,我們仍預期後付費帳戶淨增將介於 95 萬到 105 萬之間。
As part of our full-year plan and guidance, we anticipated our Q3 rate plan modernization would result in a temporary elevated account churn profile and expect Q3 net postpaid account additions to be approximately $250,000. It should be noted that the impact to postpaid phone churn is lower as the modernization impact is concentrated more in accounts with fewer lines.
作為我們全年計畫與指引的一部分,我們預期第三季的資費方案現代化將導致帳戶流失率(churn)短期暫時偏高,並預期第三季後付費帳戶淨增約 25 萬。需要注意的是,對後付費手機流失率的影響較小,因為現代化的影響更集中在門號數較少的帳戶上。
In the first half of the year, we have delivered almost 500,000 net postpaid account additions, so we are well on our way to delivering within our guidance range. This modernization also creates strong value both for customers and T-Mobile and sets us up to deliver against our 2027 guidance ambitions.
今年上半年,我們已實現接近 50 萬的後付費帳戶淨增,因此正穩步朝著在指引區間內達成目標前進。這項現代化也同時為客戶與 T-Mobile 創造強勁價值,並讓我們有更好的基礎去實現 2027 年指引目標。
So turning to service revenues, we continue to expect to deliver full-year service revenues of approximately $77 billion this year, representing 8% growth, with Q3 expectations of approximately $19.3 billion, or up 6% year-over-year. As part of that service revenue guide, we continue to set back strong postpaid ARPA growth of between 2.5% and 3% this year.
接著談服務營收:我們仍預期今年全年服務營收約 770 億美元,代表 8% 的成長;第三季預期約 193 億美元,年增約 6%。在這項服務營收指引之下,我們仍設定今年後付費 ARPA 將有 2.5% 到 3% 的強勁成長。
We continue to expect core adjusted EBITDA to be between $37.1 billion and $37.5 billion for the full year, representing 10% growth year-over-year at the midpoint. As part of that, we expect Q3 core adjusted EBITDA of approximately $9.4 billion or up 8% year-over-year.
我們仍預期全年核心調整後 EBITDA 介於 371 億到 375 億美元之間,以中位數計算年增 10%。其中,我們預期第三季核心調整後 EBITDA 約 94 億美元,年增約 8%。
Our expectation for full-year 2026 cash CapEx remains unchanged at approximately $10 billion. And finally, we are increasing our adjusted free cash flow guidance to now be between $18.4 billion and $18.8 billion, an increase of $200 million at the midpoint, primarily driven by lower cash income taxes.
我們對 2026 年全年現金資本支出(cash CapEx)的預期維持不變,約為 100 億美元。最後,我們將調整後自由現金流指引上調至 184 億到 188 億美元,以中位數計算上調 2 億美元,主要由較低的現金所得稅所帶動。
Our philosophical approach to guidance, as you are seeing play out, is to begin the year with an ambitious and industry-leading guidance range based on our best view at the time, targeting to land at the midpoint of that strong guidance range and providing updates throughout the year as warranted.
我們對指引的理念,如各位所見,是在年初基於當時最佳判斷提出具企圖心且業界領先的指引區間,目標是落在該強勁指引區間的中位數,並在需要時於全年過程中提供更新。
Turning to shareholder returns. In addition to our dividend, we're also excited to have repurchased an incremental $2.5 billion in Q2 and through July 17. If you step back, since beginning our share buyback program in late 2022, we have repurchased 253 million shares and reduced total shares outstanding to $1.07 billion.
接著談股東報酬。除了股利之外,我們也很高興在第二季以及截至 7 月 17 日期間,額外回購了 25 億美元的股票。回頭看,自 2022 年底啟動庫藏股回購計畫以來,我們已回購 2.53 億股,並將流通在外股數降至 10.7 億股。
While we continue to execute share buybacks this year, including with our previously increased authorization, we are also thoughtfully maintaining a capital envelope that is considerate of upcoming spectrum opportunities in both 2027 and 2028, including C-Band 2.0 and 2.7 gigahertz, which represents an opportunity to further cement our network leadership position and provide increased value creation through, for example, additional 5G broadband capacity unlock.
在我們今年持續執行股票回購(包含先前提高的授權額度)的同時,我們也審慎維持資本配置空間,以因應 2027 與 2028 年即將到來的頻譜機會,包括 C-Band 2.0 與 2.7GHz。這些機會可望進一步鞏固我們的網路領導地位,並透過例如釋放更多 5G 寬頻容量等方式,創造更高的價值。
To sum it all up, we continue to see strong momentum in the business and cannot be more excited for the future. And so with that, I'll now turn the call back to Cathy to begin the Q&A. Cathy?
總結來說,我們持續看到業務的強勁動能,對未來感到無比振奮。因此,接下來我把電話交回給 Cathy,開始問答環節。Cathy?
Cathy Yao - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Cathy Yao - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Thanks, Peter. Okay, let's get to your questions. (Event Instructions) We will start with a question on the phone, operator. First question, please.
謝謝,Peter。好的,讓我們開始回答各位的問題。(活動說明)我們將先從電話提問開始,接線員。請第一個問題。
Operator
Operator
Sean Diffley, Morgan Stanley.
Sean Diffley,摩根士丹利。
Sean Diffley - Analyst
Sean Diffley - Analyst
I was hoping you could discuss how you're thinking about volume versus price growth this year and any comments on the competitive backdrop. Obviously, a bit less volume growth for you guys this year, obviously pushing price a little bit harder, but how should we think about the balance through the rest of the year? Thank you for the 3Q update there.
我想請你談談今年你們如何看待「量」相對於「價格」的成長,以及對競爭環境的任何看法。顯然你們今年的量成長稍微少一些,也更用力推動價格,但我們應該如何看待今年剩餘期間兩者之間的平衡?也謝謝你們提供第三季的更新。
Srini Gopalan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Srini Gopalan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks so much, Sean. It's not just a question of this year. I mean, the way we've historically thought about price versus volume really centers around CLV and the opportunity to maximize the total amount of value creation that we bring through differentiated propositions.
非常感謝你,Sean。這不只是今年的問題。我們歷來對價格與量的思考方式,核心其實圍繞在客戶終身價值(CLV),以及透過差異化方案最大化我們所能帶來的整體價值創造機會。
And that balance, we titrate that balance very carefully to make sure that we're generating both the right volume as well as the right CLV. The exciting piece for us is the double-digit growth we've seen in CLVs. And I think it's fair to reflect on the fact that that's not kind of some independent variable. That's very closely linked to the fact that the perception of our network is at an all-time high.
而在這個平衡上,我們會非常審慎地調整,確保同時取得適當的量以及適當的 CLV。對我們而言令人振奮的是,我們看到 CLV 出現了兩位數成長。我認為也值得回顧的是,這並不是某個獨立變數。它與我們網路口碑(perception)達到歷史新高這件事高度相關。
And so we're attracting more network seekers than we ever have before. Again, our port-in versus port-out ARPA ratios, you can see that our port-in ARPAs are 20% higher than our port-out. So it's a careful titration of where we want to maximize volume versus where we want to maximize value, all bought together with CLV.
因此,我們吸引到的「追求網路品質的客戶」(network seekers)比以往任何時候都更多。同樣地,從攜入(port-in)相對於攜出(port-out)的 ARPA 比例也可看出,我們的攜入 ARPA 比攜出高出 20%。所以這是一個謹慎的調整:在哪些地方我們要最大化量、在哪些地方我們要最大化價值,而這一切都以 CLV 串聯起來。
Peter, do you want to add?
Peter,你要補充嗎?
Peter Osvaldik - Chief Financial Officer
Peter Osvaldik - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, I think you're seeing, if you double-click a little bit in there, obviously, we have aspirations for both the P and the Q with what you've seen with our now raised guidance since the beginning of the year aspirations. But also what's interesting is, yes, we delivered 2% year-over-year postpaid ARPA growth.
是的,我想如果你再深入看一下,顯然,從年初到現在我們上調的指引可以看出,我們在價格(P)與數量(Q)兩方面都有企圖。但同樣有意思的是,沒錯,我們實現了後付費 ARPA 年增 2%。
However, if you look underneath, remember, last year, we also had the acquisitions of UScellular and entered into our fiber JV with the customers coming on board having lower ARPA. So you have an interesting comp period here in Q2.
不過,如果你往更深一層看,請記得去年我們也完成了對 UScellular 的收購,並與客戶成立了光纖合資企業(fiber JV),而新加入的客戶其 ARPA 較低。因此在第二季這裡,你會看到一個很有意思的比較基期。
And if you look ex M&A, postpaid ARPA actually grew 3.7% on a year-over-year basis. So that shows you the underlying strength of the business. And so we have absolutely aspirations to continue to take volume and continue to see ARPA growth and reiterated what we expect to be very strong 2.5% to 3% on that ARPA growth for this year.
如果排除併購(M&A)影響,後付費 ARPA 實際上年增 3.7%。這顯示了業務的基本面實力。因此,我們絕對有企圖心持續擴大量體並持續看到 ARPA 成長,也再次重申我們對今年 ARPA 成長的預期將非常強勁,約 2.5% 到 3%。
Cathy Yao - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Cathy Yao - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Thanks so much, Sean. Operator, let's go with the next question, please.
非常感謝你,Sean。接線員,請進行下一個問題。
Operator
Operator
Michael Funk, Bank of America.
美國銀行(Bank of America)的 Michael Funk。
Michael Funk - Analyst
Michael Funk - Analyst
So I want to touch on device subsidies. Srini, earlier in the year, you talked about less appetite for device subsidies, expectation with the increase in device prices back half the year, in addition to a new iconic device potentially released. So what is your view on device subsidies heading into the holiday season, end of the year? And how do you balance that versus the net add guidance that you have?
我想談一下裝置補貼。Srini,你在今年稍早提到,對裝置補貼的意願降低,並預期在今年下半年裝置價格上漲,另外也可能會有一款新的指標性裝置推出。那麼你如何看待進入假期旺季、年底時的裝置補貼走向?以及你如何在這點與你們所給出的淨增指引之間取得平衡?
Srini Gopalan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Srini Gopalan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks for that question, Michael. So when we talked earlier in the year, just to be clear, what I talked about at that point was not moving away completely from device subsidies, but more rounding off the value proposition, which is -- now that we're in a place where we have so many elements to our value proposition, how do we make sure that we have a balanced articulation of the 250 reasons why someone should be choosing T-Mobile?
謝謝你的問題,Michael。所以我們在年初談到這件事時,先說清楚,我當時的意思並不是要完全遠離裝置補貼,而是要把價值主張做得更完整、更圓滿——也就是說,現在我們的價值主張包含了很多元素,我們要如何確保能夠平衡地表達「選擇 T-Mobile 的 250 個理由」?
Now, we started off with a big network campaign articulating the network reasons why. Over the year, we've had Member Month, which brings together all of the benefit reasons why. We're now running the 250 reasons to choose T-Mobile campaign.
我們一開始用大型的網路行銷活動來闡述選擇我們的網路理由。在這一年中,我們推出了 Member Month,把所有福利面的理由整合在一起。現在我們正在進行「選擇 T-Mobile 的 250 個理由」這個活動。
So our effort really is to broaden out the reasons why people should choose T-Mobile rather than purely a free phone. Of course, we'll be competitive on things like subsidy, but that's not kind of what we're leaning in on. And that was really the articulation of what I did in February.
因此,我們的努力重點其實是擴大人們選擇 T-Mobile 的理由,而不是只靠「免費手機」。當然,我們在補貼等方面會保持競爭力,但那不是我們主要著力的方向。這就是我在二月所表達的重點。
Now as we look forward, what we're seeing is clearly the memory price increases are resulting in higher prices for smartphones across the board. Our intention, consistent with what we've said, is not to increase our subsidy levels. Now, that's going to mean that customers will have to pay more. And that's just the resultant of that dynamic. So that's kind of where we are right now.
接著往前看,我們清楚看到記憶體價格上漲正推升整體智慧型手機的價格。我們的意圖也與先前所說一致:不會提高我們的補貼水準。這代表客戶將需要支付更多費用。這就是這個動態所導致的結果。所以我們目前大致就是這樣的狀況。
Peter, do you want to add any color to that?
Peter,你要不要補充一些說明?
Peter Osvaldik - Chief Financial Officer
Peter Osvaldik - Chief Financial Officer
I think that's absolutely it. You're seeing the differentiation, as Srini explained, come through here. So the ability for us to attract customers beyond a subsidy-driven promotional environment, it's that flow of the current, as you mentioned, because customers see the totality of the value that they're getting, inclusive of more and more so, as Srini commented in the prepared remarks, the network, the significant reliability, the significant network experience and starting to see a flow of network seekers coming our way.
我想就是如此。如同 Srini 解釋的,你正在看到我們的差異化在這裡顯現。因此,我們能在不完全由補貼驅動的促銷環境中吸引客戶——正如你提到的,這是一股趨勢,因為客戶看見他們獲得的整體價值;其中也越來越包含(如 Srini 在事先準備的發言中提到的)網路、顯著的可靠性、顯著的網路體驗,並且開始看到一批「追求網路品質」的客戶轉向我們。
So that's what's driving a lot of the flow into T-Mobile. That's what's driving the postpaid ARPAs being a lot higher than port-out ARPAs. That's what's driving double-digit CLV increases on a year-over-year basis. So we're very excited, and you're going to see us continue to demonstrate to customers the broader base of value that we provide.
所以,這就是大量客流流入 T-Mobile 的原因。這也是為什麼後付費 ARPA 明顯高於攜出(port-out)ARPA。這也是為什麼客戶終身價值(CLV)年增達到雙位數。因此我們非常興奮,你也會看到我們持續向客戶展現我們所提供更廣泛的價值基礎。
Cathy Yao - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Cathy Yao - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Great. Thank you, operator. Let's move on to our next question.
很好。謝謝,接線員。我們進入下一個問題。
Operator
Operator
Craig Moffett, MoffettNathanson.
MoffettNathanson 的 Craig Moffett。
Craig Moffett - Analyst
Craig Moffett - Analyst
So Peter, you talked about interest in upper C-Band, and it makes me wonder, your FWA business, by our calculations, is now consuming most of the capacity or at least most of the usage on your network. And it is ostensibly a fallow capacity strategy. Can you just talk about how you see traffic growth over the next few years?
Peter,你談到對上層 C-Band 的興趣,這讓我想到:依我們的估算,你們的 FWA 業務現在正在消耗你們網路上大部分的容量,或至少是大部分的使用量。而它表面上是一種「閒置容量」(fallow capacity)策略。你能談談你如何看待未來幾年的流量成長嗎?
AT&T talked yesterday about a huge, expected increase due to AI workloads. Do you expect the same thing? And if you think about the upper C-Band, is that to support FWA or is it to support AI workloads? And I'm just wondering how FWA fits into that future and particularly in the context of a sort of fallow capacity model.
AT&T 昨天談到因 AI 工作負載而預期會有巨大的流量增幅。你們也預期會一樣嗎?另外,若想到上層 C-Band,那是為了支援 FWA,還是為了支援 AI 工作負載?我也想知道 FWA 如何融入那樣的未來,特別是在某種「閒置容量模型」的脈絡下。
Srini Gopalan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Srini Gopalan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks for that question, Craig. Let me kick off and then Peter and John can add to that. So let's start with wireless as a whole and the evolution of wireless technology. We couldn't be more excited by how much innovation and how much new capacity is being created by all of the innovation and wireless.
謝謝你的問題,Craig。我先開頭,然後 Peter 和 John 可以再補充。先從整體無線以及無線技術的演進談起。我們對於無線領域帶來的創新,以及所有創新所創造的新容量,感到無比興奮。
And when we talk about the spectrum auctions, it's not just the upper C-Band, which clearly was a big announcement yesterday, but also 2.7 gigahertz that Chairman Carr talked about. And where we sit, given the rapid evolution in wireless technology, especially in comparison with other forms of tech that are being used for broadband, we believe this is a time to double down on wireless tech and really build out our network superiority, not just in 5G, but also 6G.
當我們談到頻譜拍賣時,不只是上層 C-Band——這顯然是昨天的一個重大宣布——也包括 Carr 主席提到的 2.7GHz。以我們目前的位置來看,鑑於無線技術快速演進,尤其相較於其他用於寬頻的技術形式,我們相信現在是加碼投入無線技術、真正打造我們網路領先優勢的時刻,不僅在 5G,也包括 6G。
Knocking off a couple of other things that you talked about, yes, FWA does consume a fair amount of our capacity, but this is where the numerator-denominator issue comes in, right? It consumes a fair amount of our traffic today, which is not the same thing as a fair amount of our capacity, because our capacity is several times multiple of the traffic that we hold today. So we feel very comfortable with where we are with FWA today.
再回應你提到的幾點:是的,FWA 的確消耗了我們相當一部分的容量,但這裡牽涉到分子分母的問題,對吧?它今天消耗的是我們相當一部分的流量,這不等同於消耗了我們相當一部分的容量,因為我們的容量是目前所承載流量的好幾倍。因此,我們對目前 FWA 的狀況感到非常安心。
One other piece, I think you said ostensibly fallow capacity model. Just to be clear, it is actually a complete fallow capacity model. The way we think about capacity to go through something I think we've talked about before is at a hex bin level, and there's 36 million hex bins. We sit down and forecast the growth of wireless traffic, and then we put a cap on the market share that we're going to be able to get on FWA, and the rest of the capacity is then the fallow capacity. And all of this is done at peak hour.
另外一點,我想你說的是「表面上是閒置容量模型」。先說清楚:它其實是一個完全的閒置容量模型。我們思考容量的方式——我想我們以前談過——是在 hex bin 的層級,總共有 3,600 萬個 hex bin。我們會坐下來預測無線流量的成長,然後對我們在 FWA 能取得的市占率設定上限,其餘的容量就成為閒置容量。而這一切都是以尖峰時段(peak hour)為基準來做。
And all of this was done excluding any new spectrum coming in or technology innovation, that's what took us to our guidance of 15 million customers. We feel incredibly good and very positive about that. In fact, all of the announcements of yesterday in terms of more spectrum coming online only makes us more positive about that because our guidance didn't build any of that in. And that spectrum coming in actually creates more fallow capacity as well apart from improving the quality of our core product.
而且這一切是在不納入任何新增頻譜或技術創新的前提下完成的,這也是我們提出 1,500 萬客戶指引的基礎。我們對此感覺非常好、也非常正向。事實上,昨天所有關於更多頻譜即將上線的宣布,只會讓我們更正向,因為我們的指引並沒有把那些因素納入。而新增的頻譜除了能提升我們核心產品的品質之外,也會創造更多的閒置容量。
In terms of expected increase in traffic and the impact of AI, I'm going to hand off to Dr. John Saw. John.
至於預期的流量增幅以及 AI 的影響,我把問題交給 John Saw 博士。John。
John Saw - Chief Technology Officer
John Saw - Chief Technology Officer
Yeah. Hey, thank you, Srini. And hi, Craig. Just to build on Srini's point, I think we are very comfortable with our capacity situation, especially with fallow capacity. We have an awesome model that actually allows us to forecast how much runway we have.
是的。嘿,謝謝你,Srini。嗨,Craig。延續 Srini 的觀點,我認為我們對自身的容量狀況非常有信心,特別是就閒置容量而言。我們有一個很棒的模型,能讓我們實際預測我們還有多少可用的「跑道」。
And remember, every megabit per second of capacity not used is wasted, so that's where fallow capacity come in. And a reliable proxy for capacity speeds, and if you look at all the benchmarks that you have seen, including the latest wins we have, our speeds continue to go up. So we're not concerned about capacity at all.
而且請記住,每一個未被使用的每秒兆位元(Mbps)容量都是浪費,所以這就是閒置容量發揮作用的地方。它也是衡量容量速率的一個可靠替代指標;如果你看過你所見到的所有基準測試,包括我們最新拿下的勝利案例,我們的速度仍在持續提升。因此我們完全不擔心容量問題。
With regards to AI traffic, I think it's important to understand where these AI workloads actually live. The current growth in AI is focused on model training, large-scale agentic automations and heavy back-end automations. A lot of them actually are confined to wireline transport networks and massive data centers.
關於 AI 流量,我認為重要的是要理解這些 AI 工作負載實際上部署在哪裡。目前 AI 的成長主要集中在模型訓練、大規模代理式(agentic)自動化,以及大量後端自動化。其中很多其實都侷限在有線傳輸網路與大型資料中心內。
So this type of compute, we have not seen putting a material strain on mobile networks. So we have not seen any surge in mobile traffic due to AI, even though every year, we see mobile traffic going up, regardless of AI or not, to support our mobility tonnage as well as fixed wireless.
因此,這類運算我們尚未看到對行動網路造成實質性的壓力。所以我們也沒有看到因 AI 而導致行動流量出現任何激增;不過即使不考慮 AI,我們每年都會看到行動流量上升,以支撐我們的行動用量以及固定無線(FWA)。
I think if AI traffic continues to grow, especially with the growth of physical AI, I think we are more than prepared and we have sufficient runway to continue to invest in our capacity, both in terms of existing spectrum and we haven't even looked at the impact of getting new spectrum yet that Srini was so excited about.
我認為如果 AI 流量持續成長,尤其是隨著實體 AI 的成長,我想我們不僅已經做好準備,而且我們有足夠的跑道,能持續投資於容量,不論是既有頻譜;而且我們甚至還沒有去評估取得新頻譜的影響——那正是 Srini 非常興奮的部分。
Remember, we rolled out 5G Advanced recently and the only operator to do that. And one of the reasons why we do that is that we want to improve the uplink performance especially with the potential surge in AI mobile traffic soon. And with 5G Advanced, we have been able to improve uplink performance with uplink carrier aggregation, uplink MIMO, transmit switching, all that is actually in preparation for not just giving our customers with phones a better experience, but also better uplink for future AI traffic that we expect to be seeing soon.
請記得,我們最近推出了 5G Advanced,而且是唯一做到的營運商。我們這麼做的原因之一,是希望提升上行效能,特別是為了因應不久後 AI 行動流量可能出現的激增。透過 5G Advanced,我們已能藉由上行載波聚合、上行 MIMO、發射切換等方式提升上行效能;這些準備不只是為了讓使用手機的客戶有更好的體驗,也是在為我們預期很快會看到的未來 AI 流量提供更好的上行能力。
Srini Gopalan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Srini Gopalan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, John. So we haven't seen it as yet, but we look forward to seeing it because our network's more prepared than anyone else. Yes. Peter, did you want to add to that?
謝謝,John。所以我們目前還沒看到,但我們期待看到,因為我們的網路比任何人都更準備好。是的。Peter,你要補充嗎?
Peter Osvaldik - Chief Financial Officer
Peter Osvaldik - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, and just, Craig, I think you asked some great questions. Just to be clear, what he said is that utilization of the network traffic is completely by design from the fallow capacity model, and capacity is way in excess of current utilization.
是的,另外,Craig,我覺得你問了幾個很棒的問題。先說清楚,他的意思是:網路流量的使用率完全是依照閒置容量模型所設計的,而容量遠遠高於目前的使用量。
In terms of the comments around 5G broadband and both C-Band 2.0 and 2.7, just to be clear, all that would be incremental to the 15 million, should there be anything there, and we will not be looking to purchase spectrum strictly for fixed wireless. We're still under the fallow capacity model.
至於你提到 5G 寬頻以及 C-Band 2.0 與 2.7 的相關評論,說清楚一點:若那裡有任何機會,所有這些都會是在 1,500 萬的基礎上額外增加的;而且我們不會為了固定無線而去購買頻譜。我們仍然遵循閒置容量模型。
What I want to really highlight is just our excitement around an opportunity. If you look back over the last three, four, five years, I think one of the main reasons that we've been so successful in continually outperforming the competitive environment and delivering both growth and financial results that are multiples of our competitive set and see a future where that is going to be the case for a long runway ahead of us, is diligent application of our capital allocation framework.
我真正想強調的是,我們對這個機會感到非常興奮。如果你回顧過去三、四、五年,我認為我們之所以能持續成功、在競爭環境中不斷超越對手,並交出成長與財務成果——其表現是同業組合的數倍——而且我們也看到未來很長一段跑道仍將如此,其中一個主要原因就是我們嚴謹地運用資本配置框架。
You've seen us be very diligent, for example, with spectrum purchases. And remember, that framework, as you all know, begins with setting the right leverage and then making sure we're investing the right amount in the business, then looking at accretive M&A opportunities. Certainly, spectrum is one of those investments in the business and then returning to shareholders.
你們也看到我們在例如頻譜購買上非常審慎。而且如各位所知,那個框架是從設定適當的槓桿水準開始,接著確保我們對業務投入適當的投資金額,然後再尋找具增益性的併購(M&A)機會。當然,頻譜是這些業務投資之一,最後再回饋股東。
And we see such an exciting opportunity here, both in '27 and '28 with Chairman Carr's announcement yesterday that 2.7 will be in the 2028 timeline, to take this network leadership position that is now beginning to pay dividends in terms of network seekers coming to T-Mobile, in terms of the technology evolution that Dr. Saw has driven and what that's opening up from new TAM environments, both in the enterprise space, physical AI in the future, and take that same diligent approach and apply it to C-Band 2.0 and 2.7.
我們在這裡看到非常令人振奮的機會:不論是在 2027 與 2028 年,以及 Carr 主席昨天宣布 2.7 將納入 2028 年時程。
And so we're definitely thoughtfully thinking about our capital envelope and its deployment against those two. It's too early to tell, of course, exactly what those opportunities will look like next year and in 2028. But it's one of the most exciting things upcoming for us to cement network leadership far into the future and have all the ingredients to continue to outperform in this industry and deliver value for shareholders.
因此,我們確實在審慎思考我們的資本額度,以及如何在這兩者上部署。當然,現在要精確判斷明年以及 2028 年這些機會會長什麼樣子還太早。但這是我們接下來最令人興奮的事項之一,有助於在更長遠的未來鞏固網路領導地位,並具備所有要素,持續在這個產業中超越同業並為股東創造價值。
Cathy Yao - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Cathy Yao - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Thanks, Craig. Let's move on to the next question, please.
謝謝,Craig。請進行下一個問題。
Operator
Operator
John Hodulik, UBS.
John Hodulik,瑞銀(UBS)。
John Hodulik - Analyst
John Hodulik - Analyst
A couple, if I could. First, I guess for Peter, it looks like the EBITDA guidance sort of suggests growth is going to slow from about 12% in the first half to sort of high single digits in the second half. Any sort of additional color you can provide on one of the drivers there?
我有幾個問題,如果可以的話。首先,我想問 Peter:看起來 EBITDA 指引似乎暗示成長將從上半年約 12% 放緩到下半年大約高個位數。你能否就其中一個驅動因素提供更多說明?
And then do you guys have any other detail you can provide on either postpaid phone volumes or FWA or fiber? It sounds like FWA was yet another strong quarter. So if you have any additional details, it would be great.
另外,你們能否提供更多關於後付費手機量、FWA 或光纖的細節?聽起來 FWA 又是一個強勁的季度。所以如果能提供任何額外細節就太好了。
And then lastly, I guess, does the commentary around the upcoming auction suggest that the buybacks going forward are going to stay closer to this $2 billion level from what we've seen in previous quarters?
最後,我想問:關於即將到來的拍賣的評論,是否意味著未來的庫藏股回購將會更接近我們在前幾季看到的 20 億美元水準?
Peter Osvaldik - Chief Financial Officer
Peter Osvaldik - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, happy. On EBITDA, it's really, you have to recall, it's a function of when we had acquisitions in the prior year. So you have Q1 and Q2 of this year, of course, that are comping a different environment in the prior year that were pre-acquisition.
好的,很樂意。關於 EBITDA,你必須回想一下,它其實取決於我們前一年進行收購的時間點。因此,今年的 Q1 和 Q2,當然是在與前一年收購前的不同環境做比較。
So we're very confident in what we gave, which is, at the midpoint, we're still driving 10% core adjusted EBITDA growth. And of course, within quarters versus what we had at the beginning of the year, from an assumption, there's some timing differences on the edges here and there that's allowed us to overperform. But from an overall perspective, that's exactly what's driving it; it's simply timing of when acquisitions occurred but continue to see that strong 10% growth.
所以我們對我們給出的指引非常有信心;以中位數來看,我們仍在推動核心調整後 EBITDA 成長 10%。當然,就季度表現相對於年初假設而言,邊際上會有一些時點差異,讓我們得以超預期。但從整體角度來看,驅動因素正是如此;只是收購發生時間點的差異,但我們仍持續看到強勁的 10% 成長。
From a fixed wireless perspective, we saw another very strong quarter, total broadband right in the upper [400,000] range yet again, strong ARPUs yet again. Postpaid phone, we're not going to give you the whole spreadsheet, but one thing I can tell you is we had a tremendously successful churn quarter. We had postpaid phone churn of 0.85, so down year-over-year significantly, and that's again the representation of this differentiated formula working for customers, as you can kind of see manifest in the NPS score.
從固定無線的角度來看,我們又看到一個非常強勁的季度,總寬頻再次落在 40 萬戶以上的區間,ARPU 也再次表現強勁。至於後付費手機,我們不會把整張試算表都給你,但我可以告訴你一件事:我們在流失率方面是一個非常成功的季度。我們的後付費手機流失率為 0.85,年對年顯著下降;這再次證明這套差異化配方對客戶有效,你也可以從 NPS 分數上看到這點的呈現。
So outside of that, we see continued growth and opportunity and across all those segments, Srini mentioned, we had growth across the top 100 as well as our smaller markets and rural areas, so everything is on fire here. We're very excited about the future.
除此之外,我們看到在所有這些區隔仍有持續成長與機會;正如 Srini 提到的,我們在前 100 大市場以及較小市場與鄉村地區都實現成長,所以這裡一切都火力全開。我們對未來非常興奮。
On buybacks, I think what you're going to see every single quarter, again, is application of this capital allocation framework. So we haven't before, and I'm not here to guide it's going to be exactly this amount for every single quarter because that's really going to be dependent on what the opportunity set is looking in front of us at that point in time, and we have a little bit more clarity around when spectrum auctions come, et cetera, et cetera. So it's just continued application of that very judicious, and I think demonstrably value-creating allocation framework for shareholders.
關於庫藏股,我認為你們每一季都會看到的,仍然是這套資本配置框架的運用。所以我們過去沒有、而且我今天也不是要指引說每一季都會剛好是這個金額,因為那真的會取決於當時我們眼前的機會集合長什麼樣子,以及我們對於頻譜拍賣何時到來等等會有更清楚的掌握,諸如此類。所以就是持續運用那套非常審慎、而且我認為已經可證明能為股東創造價值的配置框架。
Cathy Yao - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Cathy Yao - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Thanks, John. Operator, let's move on to our next question.
謝謝你,John。接線生,我們進入下一個問題。
Operator
Operator
Peter Supino, Wolfe Research.
Wolfe Research 的 Peter Supino。
Peter Supino - Equity Analyst
Peter Supino - Equity Analyst
A question for all of you on fixed wireless. Since you launched the product before the rest of the industry, you've, I think, always achieved superior net add growth, and that's despite launches by your two largest fixed wireless competitors subsequently.
我有一個關於固定無線(FWA)要請教各位的問題。由於你們比產業其他業者更早推出這項產品,我想你們一直都能達成更優異的淨增成長,即使你們兩個最大的固定無線競爭對手之後也相繼推出。
I wonder if you could talk about, in the last six months during the most promotional periods of low Earth orbit satellite pricing, if you could talk about whether that product, priced at lower levels, appealed to your target market and home Internet? And if that product does become much more available in 2027, how you might see it impacting your FWA strategy?
我想請你們談談,在過去六個月、也就是低軌道(LEO)衛星定價促銷最激烈的期間,那個以更低價位定價的產品,是否對你們的目標市場與家用網路客群具有吸引力?另外,如果該產品在 2027 年變得更普及,你們會如何看待它對你們 FWA 策略的影響?
Srini Gopalan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Srini Gopalan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks for that. Let me pick off and then, Andre, if you can come in. So the way we think about FWA versus LEO at a very high level, firstly, is there's a big enough market for both of us to go after because there's a large incumbent pool of inferior product with inferior pricing, whether it's in urban or rural.
謝謝這個問題。我先回答一部分,然後 Andre 你再補充。我們在很高層次上看待 FWA 相對於 LEO 的方式,首先是:市場夠大,足以讓我們雙方都去爭取,因為目前有一大批既有業者提供的是較差的產品與較差的定價,不論是在都會或鄉村地區。
Now, Andre will lean into this a little more in terms of the differences on where we are on urban versus rural and our perspective on LEO, but the one thing I'll leave you with is ultimately, our product superiority, driven by our network superiority, has really been the heart of our success. Our median download speeds have consistently grown over the last two years.
接下來 Andre 會更深入談談我們在都會與鄉村的差異,以及我們對 LEO 的觀點;但我想先留給你的一點是:最終,我們的產品優勢——由我們的網路優勢所驅動——一直是我們成功的核心。過去兩年,我們的下載速度中位數持續成長。
Even as our wireless speeds have grown, our routers are becoming better and better. We fundamentally offer a significantly better product than our FWA competitors or LEO. And it isn't much more complex than that in terms of what's driving success.
即使我們的無線速度在提升,我們的路由器也變得越來越好。從根本上說,我們提供的產品明顯優於我們的 FWA 競爭對手或 LEO。推動成功的因素其實沒有更複雜,就是這樣。
But Andrei, if you want lead into it?
不過 Andrei,你要不要接著談?
Andre Almeida - Chief Broadband, Enterprise & Emerging Business Officer
Andre Almeida - Chief Broadband, Enterprise & Emerging Business Officer
Thanks, Srini, and thank you for the question, Peter. So I think, so first let me break it into two pieces. One is why are we outperforming everyone else and why are we doing so well? And it's not, curiously enough, it's not because we went first. It's just because our product is significantly better.
謝謝你,Srini,也謝謝你的提問,Peter。我想我先把它拆成兩個部分。第一個是:為什麼我們能勝過其他所有人、為什麼我們表現這麼好?有趣的是,並不是因為我們先行推出。而是因為我們的產品明顯更好。
This is where our network also shines in terms of the amount of capacity we have and the amount of development we've put into our network. John talked about what we've done with 5G SA, then what we've done with 5G Advanced. We just have a better product.
這也反映在我們的網路優勢上,包括我們擁有的容量規模,以及我們在網路上投入的開發程度。John 談到我們在 5G SA 上做了什麼,以及我們在 5G Advanced 上做了什麼。我們就是有更好的產品。
And I think it was highlighted in the beginning of the call that when you measure speeds over Wi-Fi, our product is delivering fiber-like speeds over Wi-Fi. That means that, us, unlike our competitors in some of this space, have graduated from being what was, in the beginning, perceived as just a discount product towards being a great premium technology product to deliver broadband service.
而且我想在電話會議一開始也提到:當你用 Wi‑Fi 來量測速度時,我們的產品透過 Wi‑Fi 交付的是類光纖等級的速度。這代表我們——不同於這個領域的一些競爭對手——已經從一開始被視為只是折扣產品,進一步升級為一個優秀的高端技術產品,用來提供寬頻服務。
And that, if you want to encapsulate that into one statistic, is our Net Promoter Score on broadband is higher than the Net Promoter Score of all the other broadband categories in the country, including fiber. So it's just that we have a better product, the product performs well, and it performs -- it's continuing to improve its performance over time.
如果要用一個統計數字來概括,就是:我們寬頻的淨推薦值(NPS)高於全國所有其他寬頻類別的 NPS,包括光纖。所以就是我們有更好的產品,產品表現好,而且它的表現——會隨時間持續改善。
The second thing when we talk about LEO and satellite, just two or three things I think are important to keep in mind. One is two-thirds of our customers are in the top 100 markets. That's exactly the markets where capacity will be significantly constrained for satellite broadband because of the beam sizes. And so we don't see concerns there.
第二點,談到 LEO 與衛星,我認為有兩三件重要的事要記住。第一,我們有三分之二的客戶在前 100 大市場。而這些市場正是衛星寬頻因為波束大小(beam size)而會受到容量顯著限制的地方。因此我們不認為那裡會有疑慮。
And as Srini said, there's a lot of space and a lot of room to grow. And so I think we're not concerned with that. Our performance -- you talked about the last six months, the last six months have been extremely strong in terms of revenue generation, and they've been extremely strong in terms of net add.
而且如 Srini 所說,市場空間很大、成長空間也很大。所以我想我們並不擔心。至於表現——你提到過去六個月,這六個月在營收創造方面非常強勁,在淨增方面也非常強勁。
So again, we have a premium product. We're mainly, today, urban. And if the last six months are any evidence of what's to come, then the last six months have been great.
所以再說一次,我們有一個高端產品。我們目前主要在都會市場。如果過去六個月能作為未來的任何證據,那麼這六個月的表現非常好。
Srini Gopalan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Srini Gopalan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
And just one, just to add on what Andrei said, two-thirds of our customers are in the top 100 and our shares are lowest in the top 100. So there's a lot of runway ahead of us on FWA.
再補充 Andrei 剛才說的:我們有三分之二的客戶在前 100 大市場,而我們在前 100 大市場的市占率最低。所以我們在 FWA 上還有很長的成長跑道。
Peter Osvaldik - Chief Financial Officer
Peter Osvaldik - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, and I'd probably finish, Peter, I think we mentioned this when we were giving the 15 million target, but not only is it a fallow capacity model, but it also included very conservative rational market share caps. And so that's another mechanism by which why we think it's a very rational 15 million subscriber target by 2030.
對,而且我可能最後補充一下,Peter,我想我們在提出 1,500 萬目標時有提到:這不僅是一個閒置容量(fallow capacity)模型,而且也納入了非常保守、理性的市場市占上限假設。因此這也是我們認為到 2030 年達到 1,500 萬訂戶目標非常合理的另一個機制。
Cathy Yao - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Cathy Yao - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Great. Thanks, Peter. Operator, let's do another queue on the earnings queue.
很好。謝謝你,Peter。接線生,我們在財報問答隊列再接下一題。
Operator
Operator
Kannan Venkateshwar, Barclays.
Barclays 的 Kannan Venkateshwar。
Kannan Venkateshwar - Equity Analyst
Kannan Venkateshwar - Equity Analyst
So, Srini, strategically, when you think about LEOs, why isn't this a bigger opportunity for you to lean into even more? I mean, just taking the other side of this in the sense that your peers have plans to build out 50 million to 60 million fiber packings around the country. And building that takes time, costs a lot of money. You have fixed wireless capacity, but obviously, it eats up some degree of spectrum.
Srini,從策略角度來看,當你們思考 LEO 時,為什麼這不是一個更大的機會、讓你們更積極投入?我的意思是,從另一個角度看,你們的同業計畫在全國建置 5,000 萬到 6,000 萬戶的光纖覆蓋。而建置需要時間,也要花很多錢。你們有固定無線容量,但顯然也會消耗一定程度的頻譜。
And if you were to partner with a satellite company and offer broadband nationally along with wireless, it not only opens up spectrum for you, but it suddenly gives you a nationwide footprint to take on your peers without really putting in a lot of capital. So why not lean into satellite even more instead of just using it to backfill some of the less served areas? Thanks.
如果你們與一家衛星公司合作,並在提供無線服務的同時也在全國提供寬頻,這不僅能替你們釋放頻譜,還能讓你們在不投入太多資本的情況下,突然就擁有全國性的覆蓋版圖來與同業競爭。那為什麼不更積極投入衛星,而不是只把它用來補足一些服務較不足的地區?謝謝。
Srini Gopalan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Srini Gopalan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Kannan. The heart of this -- well, let me split this into two pieces, one kind of FWA versus LEO. As the technology stands today, uniformly across the country, FWA is a far superior product. And so there is really no value in us beyond kind of backup, which we've used for some of our B2B products to be partnering, right?
謝謝你,Kannan。這個問題的核心——嗯,我把它拆成兩個部分:一個是 FWA 相對於 LEO。以目前的技術水準來看,在全國各地,FWA 都是一個明顯更優的產品。因此,除了作為某種備援之外——我們已在部分 B2B 產品中使用——我們與其合作其實沒有什麼價值,對吧?
And that's where the technology is today. And as we see this evolving, we believe that's likely to continue to be true, especially because of beam size restrictions, which John can talk about more eloquently, so that's -- the way we think about partnerships or any of that is it needs to bring incremental value to us, and that incremental value is typically in some sort of differentiation, either in terms of product or in terms of new channels or in terms of new customer bases.
這就是目前技術所處的位置。而隨著我們看到它的演進,我們相信這很可能仍會持續為真,特別是因為波束大小的限制;John 可以更精闢地說明。
And having worked closely with satellite over the last four years, we're just not seeing that incremental differentiation. And our product itself more than serves the purposes, especially when you think about even in rural areas today, where some of the -- where our fallow capacity model actually works incredibly well. So we're just not seeing the upside of doing any of that in terms of partnering, either in terms of differentiation or customer base.
而且在過去四年與衛星業者密切合作之後,我們確實沒有看到那種額外的差異化提升。而我們的產品本身就已經非常足以滿足需求,尤其是當你想到即使在今天的偏鄉地區,我們的閒置容量模型其實運作得非常好。所以無論是在差異化或客戶基礎方面,就合作而言,我們都沒有看到這麼做的上行空間。
Cathy Yao - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Cathy Yao - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Thanks, Srini. Thanks, Kannan. Operator, let's do one more question in the queue, and then we'll move over to social.
謝謝你,Srini。謝謝你,Kannan。接線員,我們再回答隊列中的一個問題,然後我們會轉到社群提問。
Operator
Operator
Kutgun Maral, Evercore ISI.
Kutgun Maral,Evercore ISI。
Kutgun Maral - Equity Analyst
Kutgun Maral - Equity Analyst
I want to follow-up on broadband. You shared a lot of helpful details on fixed wireless. Maybe shifting gears a bit, is there any more color you can provide on the fiber side? How are the fiber JVs performing? Are there any updates you could provide on how you see the footprints evolving? And as the competitive backdrop shifts to potentially accommodate more competition, is there any difference in your appetite to expand on those fiber partnerships going forward?
我想追問一下寬頻。你們分享了很多關於固定無線(FWA)的有用細節。或許稍微換個方向,你們能否在光纖方面提供更多說明?光纖合資企業(JV)的表現如何?你們對覆蓋版圖如何演進,有沒有任何最新看法可以分享?另外,隨著競爭環境變化、可能容納更多競爭者,你們對未來擴大這些光纖合作夥伴關係的意願是否有任何不同?
Srini Gopalan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Srini Gopalan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Kutgun. We just cover off overall philosophically where we are and hand off to Andre to talk about where the JVs are in our future plans. On fiber, I think we've been very clear, but it's worth reiterating, we're not chasing some vanity number of number of homes passed. We think that's irrelevant.
謝謝你,Kutgun。我先從整體理念上說明我們目前的立場,然後交給Andre談談這些合資企業在我們未來計畫中的定位。在光纖方面,我想我們一直講得很清楚,但值得重申:我們不會去追逐某個虛榮的「通過戶數(homes passed)」數字。我們認為那並不重要。
We're in this game to create equity value. And that's how we've thought about all of our fiber JVs and that's how we'll think about things going forward. Andre?
我們投入這個領域是為了創造股權價值。這也是我們看待所有光纖合資企業的方式,未來也會以同樣方式思考。Andre?
Andre Almeida - Chief Broadband, Enterprise & Emerging Business Officer
Andre Almeida - Chief Broadband, Enterprise & Emerging Business Officer
Yeah. So on fiber, and I think we've mentioned before, I think we're seeing everything we expected to see, which is that our brand, our frontline, our ability to provide excellent service and excellent products is translating into fiber very well. So we're very happy with the way the JVs are performing.
是的。在光纖方面,而且我想我們之前也提過,我們看到的一切都符合預期:我們的品牌、第一線團隊、提供卓越服務與卓越產品的能力,都非常順利地延伸到光纖業務上。所以我們對合資企業的表現非常滿意。
We're getting to close to 20% penetration over the first 12 months of deploying fiber in each area, and we need to take those 20% into consideration of -- we're not overbuilding copper or overbuilding cable. So in a lot of these markets, we start with zero customers. So all the customer additions we have is actually all incremental in terms of revenue and margin for us.
在各區域部署光纖後的前12個月,我們的滲透率接近20%;而且需要把這個20%放在一個背景下看——我們並不是在重複建設銅纜或重複建設有線電視網路。因此在許多這些市場,我們是從零客戶開始。所以我們新增的所有客戶,對我們而言在營收與利潤上其實都是完全增量的。
As Srini mentioned, in terms of appetite for JVs or appetite for rollout, we've always been clear that we're doing fiber because of -- we believe it can create significant shareholder value for us. So we're not chasing any particular number.
如Srini所提,關於對合資或對鋪設擴張的意願,我們一直很清楚:我們做光纖是因為——我們相信它能為我們創造可觀的股東價值。所以我們不會追逐任何特定的數字。
And we're very careful on making sure that where we build or where we acquire, that we use conservative estimates to make sure that we can create that value. So this has not changed and every area we roll out, every JV we look at, we're always very conservative and considering what's happening in the market today.
而且我們在確保建設或收購的地點時非常謹慎,會採用保守的估算,以確保能創造那個價值。因此這點沒有改變;每一個我們推進的區域、每一個我們評估的合資案,我們都會非常保守,並把當前市場的變化納入考量。
I think the other piece on fiber, which is different for us than it is for other players, is because of our fallow capacity model, every time we win a customer in fiber, we're creating actually fallow capacity -- when those customers are in HSI, we're actually creating fallow capacity that we can sell elsewhere.
我認為光纖還有另一個面向,對我們而言與其他業者不同:因為我們的閒置容量模型,每當我們在光纖上贏得一位客戶,實際上就會創造出閒置容量——當這些客戶使用高速網際網路(HSI)時,我們其實是在釋放出可在其他地方銷售的閒置容量。
So actually, this is not, for us, in a lot of these areas, it's not a competition between fiber and FWA. These are actually complementary products, because when we can sell a fiber customer, we're actually freeing up fallow capacity to be able to sell in a broader area because the cell radiuses of mobile are actually very large, where we can sell that slot to another customer elsewhere.
所以事實上,對我們來說,在許多地區這並不是光纖與固定無線(FWA)之間的競爭。它們其實是互補的產品;因為當我們賣出一個光纖客戶時,我們實際上是在釋放閒置容量,得以在更廣的區域銷售,因為行動網路的基地台覆蓋半徑其實很大,我們可以把那個容量名額賣給其他地方的另一位客戶。
Cathy Yao - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Cathy Yao - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Thanks, Kutgun. All right. So going to social, we have a post from Chetan Sharma. What proved to be the most effective tools in your toolbox in dealing with the surge in traffic during the sports-heavy summer this year?
謝謝你,Kutgun。好。接著轉到社群提問,我們有一則來自Chetan Sharma的貼文。今年這個運動賽事密集的夏季,面對流量激增,你們工具箱裡最有效的工具是什麼?
John Saw - Chief Technology Officer
John Saw - Chief Technology Officer
Hey, Chetan. Good question. You're right. It's a sports-filled summary indeed. And I think the one network that really stood up and shined through all these sports events is the T-Mobile network. Not only do we just have our names on the posters as sponsors, but we actually did the work to disrupt and change the way how sports events are managed, whether it's using network slicing for live broadcasts for the PGA and the US open golf events or to use slicing for wireless terminals and ticket entry.
嗨,Chetan。問得好。你說得對。這確實是一個運動賽事滿檔的夏天。我認為在所有這些體育賽事中真正扛住並脫穎而出的網路,就是T-Mobile的網路。我們不只是把名字印在海報上當贊助商,我們也確實做了工作,去顛覆並改變體育賽事的管理方式——不論是為PGA與美國公開賽高爾夫賽事的現場轉播使用網路切片(network slicing),或是為無線終端與驗票入場使用切片。
And of course, the big event, Chetan, is the World Cup. And if you look at the Opensignal report in terms of who has the fastest network in all 11 locations where the US hosted a World Cup, it's a T-Mobile network. So coming to your questions on tools, we have a lot of arrows, quiver and tools in our toolbox.
當然,最大的賽事,Chetan,是世界盃。如果你看Opensignal的報告,在美國主辦世界盃的11個場地中,哪一家擁有最快的網路,答案都是T-Mobile的網路。所以回到你問的工具,我們的工具箱裡有很多招數與工具。
Starting from the tried-and-true small sales and seller on wheels, colts on wheels, we do that. Obviously, I talk about slicing. By the way, including T-Priority, which is in every one of these events, we provide a very good prioritization and pre-emption service for our first responders with a product called T-Priority.
從久經考驗的小型基地台與「輪子上的基地台」(COWs,cells on wheels)開始,我們會使用這些。我剛才也提到切片。順帶一提,包括T-Priority——在每一個這類活動中都有部署——我們透過名為T-Priority的產品,為第一線應變人員提供非常好的優先排序與搶占(pre-emption)服務。
But the one thing that I'm excited about that is fairly new is using AI for a product called Dynamic CX, where it actually works with our self-organizing network to figure out signal conditions, channel conditions when there's crowd search coming and making network adjustments so that everybody has a good experience.
但有一件讓我很興奮、而且相對較新的事情,是把AI用在一個叫Dynamic CX的產品上;它會與我們的自組織網路(SON)協同運作,判斷人潮湧入時的訊號狀況、信道狀況,並進行網路調整,讓每個人都有良好體驗。
In fact, Dynamics CX is so autonomous that we don't even have to tell it what events to look at. It looks into the calendar and figure out where the crowds are going to be and actually makes adjustments to sell sites nearby into higher capacity mode.
事實上,Dynamic CX的自主性非常高,我們甚至不需要告訴它要關注哪些活動。它會查看行事曆,判斷人潮將聚集在哪裡,並實際調整附近的基地台站點,切換到更高容量模式。
So we have seen some amazing results when we use that for all the World Cup events, especially at the watch parties, including the big one here in New York and Central Park, and we're very impressed with it. So to your question, a lot of tools we continue to innovate, and now, bringing in AI and self-organizing network is changing the game for us.
因此,我們在所有世界盃相關活動中使用它時看到了非常驚人的成果,尤其是在觀賽派對上,包括紐約這裡、中央公園那場大型活動,我們對它的表現印象非常深刻。所以回到你的問題:我們有很多工具並持續創新,而現在導入AI與自組織網路,正在為我們改變遊戲規則。
Cathy Yao - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Cathy Yao - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Thanks, Dr. Saw. Let's go back to the queue, please.
謝謝你,Dr. Saw。請回到提問隊列。
Operator
Operator
Michael Ng, Goldman Sachs.
Michael Ng,高盛。
Michael Ng - Analyst
Michael Ng - Analyst
I just had one on the service revenue outlook. It implies, I think, just over $300 million of sequential growth in 3Q and closer to $600 million in 4Q, so in terms of sequential growth. So I was just wondering if you could talk about the drivers of the acceleration in sequential service revenue growth in the fourth quarter?
我有一個關於服務營收展望的問題。我理解這意味著第三季(3Q)按季成長略高於3億美元,而第四季(4Q)按季成長接近6億美元,也就是按季成長的角度。所以我想請問,你們能否談談第四季服務營收按季成長加速的驅動因素?
And also, given some of the moving parts around postpaid, prepaid and wholesale service revenue, I was just wondering if you could please comment on that and talk about where you see that going for the quarter and the rest of the year?
另外,考量後付費、預付費以及批發服務營收之間的一些變動因素,我也想請你們評論一下,談談你們對本季以及今年剩餘期間的走勢看法?
Peter Osvaldik - Chief Financial Officer
Peter Osvaldik - Chief Financial Officer
Absolutely. Great questions. Michael, I'll send you my spreadsheet with all the details a little bit later. But I won't do that. (laughter) But certainly, you're going to see two things. And you're right, the sequential growth from Q2 to Q3 is excitingly even more than what we just delivered from Q1 to Q2.
當然。問題很好。Michael,我稍晚會把包含所有細節的試算表寄給你。但我不會真的那麼做。(笑聲)不過你確實會看到兩件事。而且你說得對,從第二季到第三季的按季成長,令人振奮地甚至高於我們剛剛交出的第一季到第二季的表現。
And that's going to come on the back of certainly volume as we're continuing to see not only postpaid account volume, a whole new net account switching, but also continued success with 5G broadband into existing accounts. So it will come from ARPA expansion in the postpaid base.
而這將主要來自於量的帶動,因為我們持續看到不僅是後付費帳戶量、全新的淨新增帳戶轉換,同時也看到 5G 寬頻在既有帳戶中的持續成功。因此,這將來自後付費基礎中的 ARPA 擴張。
Remember, we just delivered 13% year-over-year postpaid service revenue growth, and we continue to see great trajectory in postpaid, the heart of the core business, both in Q3 as well as Q4. And of course, the ARPA growth is supported by all the things that historically it has been, including self-selection up the rate plan, new accounts coming on at -- continually coming on at 60%-plus of new lines on new accounts coming in our premium rate plan tiers. So that's fabulously accretive for us, 5G broadband success, et cetera.
請記得,我們剛剛交出了後付費服務營收年增 13% 的成績,而且我們持續看到後付費(核心業務的心臟地帶)在第三季以及第四季都有非常好的成長軌跡。當然,ARPA 的成長也受到過去一貫因素的支持,包括用戶自我選擇升級到更高資費方案、新帳戶持續加入——新線路中有 60% 以上來自新帳戶,且這些新帳戶進入我們的高階資費方案層級。因此這對我們的增益非常可觀,還有 5G 寬頻的成功等等。
From a prepaid perspective, I think we'll continue to see exactly what we've been seeing and have been talking about the full year, and maybe I'll hand that over to Jon Freier in a second. And let me just touch on wholesale before we do that.
從預付費的角度來看,我認為我們會持續看到與我們整個年度一直看到、也一直在談的情況完全一致;我可能等一下把這部分交給 Jon Freier。在那之前,我先簡單談一下批發業務。
On wholesale and other, at the beginning of the year, we said it'd be probably flat to slightly up. I probably see it being roughly flat for the full year now. And that's from exactly what we expected, which is the roll-off of DISH and Tracfone that's been planned for.
關於批發及其他業務,年初我們說可能會持平到小幅成長。我現在看全年大概會是大致持平。這正是我們預期的結果,也就是 DISH 與 Tracfone 的退租(roll-off),這些都已事先規劃在內。
But now that we have six months under our belt, almost seven months, we can see that slope a little bit better than we could at the beginning of the year. So wholesale -- and that always means wholesale and other tends to be a little bit higher in Q4, and you'll probably see that relative to Q3 this quarter as well.
但現在我們已經走過六個月、接近七個月,我們能比年初更清楚地看出那個斜率。所以批發——而且批發及其他通常在第四季會稍微高一些,你們本季也可能會看到相較第三季的這種情況。
But maybe on prepaid, Jon, I'll hand it over to you.
不過預付費的部分,Jon,我把時間交給你。
Jon Freier - Chief Operating Officer
Jon Freier - Chief Operating Officer
Yeah, so on prepaid, Michael, it's really interesting what's happening. First of all, as most of you know, we have an incredible portfolio of prepaid brands, the flagship prepaid brand, Metro by T-Mobile. Of course, we have T-Mobile prepaid, Mint Mobile, Ultra. We have a great portfolio of prepaid brands that's really still really resonating in the market and attracting a lot of customers.
好的,關於預付費,Michael,現在發生的事情其實很有意思。首先,如各位大多都知道,我們擁有非常強大的預付費品牌組合,旗艦預付費品牌是 Metro by T-Mobile。當然,我們也有 T-Mobile 預付費、Mint Mobile、Ultra。我們的預付費品牌組合非常完整,仍然在市場上很有共鳴,並吸引大量客戶。
But there's also a phenomenon that's happening, which is really kind of the higher, more premium customers within prepaid are being more attracted to postpaid brands. And that's a good thing for us because we're seeing higher CLVs and overall value accretion as a result of that.
但同時也出現一個現象:預付費中較高端、更偏高價位的客群,正更被後付費品牌所吸引。這對我們是好事,因為因此我們看到更高的 CLV(客戶終身價值)以及整體價值的提升。
And like what Peter mentioned just a few moments ago on postpaid phone churn for Q2 was 0.85. So we're seeing really good stability and performance and overall value creation when we're seeing that segment of customers that are migrating. So that's a good phenomenon for us.
而且就像 Peter 剛剛提到的,第二季後付費手機流失率(churn)是 0.85。這表示當我們看到那一段客群在移轉時,我們的穩定性、表現以及整體價值創造都非常好。所以這對我們是個正向現象。
Also, for us, we've always had a long-held practice of pre- to post-migrations, which is attracting customers into the portfolio of brands, graduating them up to prepaid brands, and that continues to be a very strong dynamic in the marketplace.
另外,我們長期以來一直有從預付費轉到後付費的做法:先把客戶吸引進我們的品牌組合,讓他們逐步升級到預付費品牌,而這在市場上仍然是一個非常強勁的動能。
The other thing, too, is that we see an opportunity within prepaid to further kind of cultivate and grow the segment. When you think about our portfolio of brands, distribution capability, potential distribution expansion in a variety of ways, we see a lot of opportunity that we can really kind of get after prepaid to not only drive the overall prepaid business, but to really have more fuel for the postpaid business over time with those migrations and graduations that I spoke to.
還有一點是,我們也看到在預付費領域進一步培育並擴大這個客群的機會。當你想到我們的品牌組合、通路能力,以及以多種方式擴張通路的潛力,我們看到很多機會可以更積極地推動預付費,不僅帶動整體預付費業務,也能隨著我提到的移轉與升級,長期為後付費業務提供更多燃料。
Peter Osvaldik - Chief Financial Officer
Peter Osvaldik - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, and I think, Michael, if you're -- because you're probably doing the P&Q math there a little bit. And the reality is you've kind of got me here. We're probably going to be more towards the 3% ARPA growth for the full year than the 2.5% side of the house because we're really seeing strength in the core business.
是的,Michael,我想如果你——因為你可能正在做一些 P&Q 的數學計算。而現實是你現在把我抓在這裡。就全年而言,我們的 ARPA 成長可能會更接近 3%,而不是 2.5%,因為我們確實看到核心業務的強勁表現。
Cathy Yao - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Cathy Yao - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Thanks, Mike. Operator, next question, please.
謝謝,Mike。接線生,請下一題。
Operator
Operator
Sebastiano Petti, JPMorgan.
JPMorgan 的 Sebastiano Petti。
Sebastiano Petti - Analyst
Sebastiano Petti - Analyst
Just maybe sticking with broadband for a second here, AT&T says 45% of their Internet customers bundle with wireless. Can you help us think about what is your percent? Why isn't it higher? What are you doing to try to drive incremental bundling to your base?
先在寬頻這邊延伸一下,AT&T 表示他們有 45% 的網路客戶會與無線服務綁定。你們的比例大概是多少?為什麼沒有更高?你們正在做什麼來推動既有客戶基礎的增量綁定?
And then thinking about the direct-to-device ecosystem, any update on the JV timing of a definitive agreement there? How you're thinking about your exclusivity agreement with Starlink and maybe leaning into the JV opportunity? Thank you.
另外,談到 direct-to-device 生態系,有沒有關於那個 JV(合資)在簽署最終協議時程上的更新?你們如何看待與 Starlink 的獨家協議,以及是否會更傾向投入 JV 的機會?謝謝。
Srini Gopalan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Srini Gopalan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, let me pick up the JV piece and Andre can pick up the bundling piece. I'm just glad we're all calling it bundling rather than something called convergence now, so that bit's working. So on the JV piece, the conversations are going really well. And we're progressing rapidly towards the long-form agreement, we should have an update for you shortly on that.
我先回答 JV 的部分,Andre 可以回答綁定的部分。我很高興我們現在都稱它為「綁定」(bundling),而不是叫「融合」(convergence)之類的名詞,所以這點看來有效。至於 JV,相關對話進展得非常順利。我們正快速推進到長版協議(long-form agreement),應該很快就能向各位更新。
Andre, do you want to pick up bundling and where we are on it?
Andre,你要不要接著談綁定以及我們目前的狀況?
Andre Almeida - Chief Broadband, Enterprise & Emerging Business Officer
Andre Almeida - Chief Broadband, Enterprise & Emerging Business Officer
As Srini said, I think it's a great moment where everybody is calling it bundling, and we're very happy for that. That being said, so if you were to do the same math of how many of our broadband customers also have mobile within the bundle, for us, that's closer to 70% than it's closer to 45% so.
如 Srini 所說,現在大家都稱之為綁定,這是個很好的時刻,我們也很樂見。話說回來,如果你用同樣的算法來看:我們的寬頻客戶中有多少也在同一個綁定方案裡擁有行動服務,對我們而言更接近 70%,而不是 45%。
But again, we've always taken the approach that this is one of the formats of bundling. We have a lot of just mobile customers that have multiple lines in their bundles, multiple customers that have device and mobile. But if you want to take that stat as like one of the stats of one of the bundling cuts, that's, for us, it would be about closer to 70% than 45%.
但同樣地,我們一向的看法是,這只是綁定的一種形式。我們也有很多純行動客戶在其綁定中有多條線路,也有很多客戶同時擁有裝置與行動服務。但如果你要把那個指標視為某一種綁定切法中的其中一個統計,對我們來說大概更接近 70%,而不是 45%。
Cathy Yao - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Cathy Yao - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Thanks, Sebastiano. Next question, please.
謝謝你,Sebastiano。請下一題。
Operator
Operator
Bryan Kraft, Deutsche Bank.
Deutsche Bank 的 Bryan Kraft。
Bryan Kraft - Analyst
Bryan Kraft - Analyst
I guess I wanted to follow-up on prepaid. Can you, Peter, maybe elaborate on how much of the prepaid revenue decline is being driven by sub declines versus ARPU declines at this point? And maybe just give us some sense for how much of that subscriber decline is being recaptured by T-Mobile through prepaid to postpaid migration versus going to a competitor? Just trying to understand those dynamics a little bit better.
我想追問一下預付費。Peter,你能否更詳細說明,目前預付費營收下滑有多少是由用戶數下滑(sub declines)所驅動、又有多少是由 ARPU 下滑所驅動?另外,你能否讓我們了解一下:那部分用戶下滑中,有多少是被 T-Mobile 透過預付費轉後付費的移轉所回收,與有多少是流向競爭對手?我只是想更清楚理解這些動態。
And I guess I also wanted to follow-up on the D2D question. It's been a year, obviously, since you launched the exclusive D2D offering with Starlink. Just wondering how you're thinking about exclusivity at this point, and whether you want to go with primarily through the JV going forward and just how you're handling that sort of exclusivity expiration as it comes up? Thank you.
我也想追問 D2D 的問題。顯然距離你們與 Starlink 推出獨家 D2D 方案已經一年了。想請問你們目前如何看待獨家性,未來是否主要會透過 JV 來推進,以及在獨家到期逐步逼近時,你們如何處理這類獨家到期的議題?謝謝。
Srini Gopalan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Srini Gopalan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
I'll pick up the D2D piece and then hand it off to Peter. Direct-to-cell is really a technology that in many ways we worked with Starlink to invent. It's the first scale deployment of that. And what we've learned over the last four years is it is a complementary category.
我先回答 D2D 的部分,然後再交給 Peter。Direct-to-cell 在很多方面是一項我們與 Starlink 一起「發明」出來的技術。這是該技術首次的大規模部署。而我們在過去四年學到的是,它是一個互補性的類別。
If you look at our usage, the last time I talked about 0.0002% of our network usage, that's three zeros and a two, being on satellite. And in our busiest summer months, that went to 0.0003%. So it's a really small point -- a small percentage of the usage on our network, and it is a complementary service.
如果你看我們的使用情況,上次我提到我們網路使用量的 0.0002%,也就是三個零加上一個二,是在衛星上。而在我們最忙的夏季月份,這個數字上升到 0.0003%。所以這真的是一個非常小的點——在我們網路上的使用占比很小,而且它是一項互補性的服務。
You know what we always do, right, which was we future cast the direction of this industry and then work back from that to figure out the right strategy for us. For us, it's clear that with time, this is no longer going to be a differentiation. It's going to be table stakes as a complementary service to have satellite along with your cellular service.
你知道我們一向怎麼做,對吧?也就是我們會前瞻推演這個產業的走向,然後再倒推回來,找出對我們而言正確的策略。對我們來說,很明顯的是,隨著時間推移,這將不再是差異化因素。作為一項互補性服務,把衛星與你的行動通訊服務一起提供,將會成為基本門檻(table stakes)。
And that's what drove a lot of our thinking. We think what's at stake now is to make the experience of the customer agnostic of which provider you are, agnostic of which device you are, and to pool spectrum so that we can actually make this a significantly better customer experience. And that's what drove the JV.
而這就是驅動我們許多思考的原因。我們認為現在關鍵在於,讓客戶的體驗不受你是哪一家供應商影響、不受你用的是哪一種裝置影響,並且整合頻譜,讓我們實際上能把客戶體驗大幅提升。而這就是促成這個合資企業(JV)的原因。
So looking forward, the JV does allow for individual operators to have conversations and agreements with other parties, but our expectation is the vast majority will be sourced through the JV. And the other question was on prepaid, yeah.
所以展望未來,這個合資企業確實允許個別營運商與其他方進行洽談並達成協議,但我們的預期是,絕大多數都會透過合資企業來取得。另外一個問題是關於預付費,對,沒錯。
Peter Osvaldik - Chief Financial Officer
Peter Osvaldik - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, on prepaid, it's a little bit of both. But it's also a little bit. I mean, this, as John mentioned, continues to be a tremendously healthy business for us. And it's been one that we've been very successful in taking customers, bringing them through our prepaid brands and ultimately engaging with our postpaid brands.
對,關於預付費,兩者都有一點。但也還有一點是——我的意思是,正如 John 提到的,這對我們而言仍然是一個非常健康的業務。而且我們在這方面一直很成功:把客戶帶進我們的預付費品牌,最終再引導他們與我們的後付費品牌互動。
Some are choosing to directly engage with postpaid brands versus us, I think, you can see from the total postpaid volume and the ARPA delivery and the quality of customers there that we're getting, that we're attracting very high-quality postpaid customers in totality.
有些人選擇直接與後付費品牌互動而不是透過我們;但我想你可以從後付費總量、ARPA 的表現,以及我們所獲得客戶的品質看出來,我們整體上正在吸引非常高品質的後付費客戶。
And on prepaid, what I'd expect from a service revenue perspective is probably a similar trend, Q2 to Q3 to Q4, as we've seen, Q1 to Q2. So you're talking about minimal trends here, and it's more reflective of the overall dynamics. But all the more important that we're delivering really tremendous growth on the postpaid side and still maintaining what is, again, industry-defining multiples of the industry from a total service revenue growth perspective.
至於預付費,從服務營收的角度,我預期大概會出現與我們從 Q1 到 Q2 所看到的類似趨勢:Q2 到 Q3 到 Q4。所以你談的是非常小的變動,更多反映的是整體動態。但也因此更重要的是,我們在後付費端交出非常亮眼的成長,同時仍維持——再次強調——從總服務營收成長的角度來看,遠高於同業、可稱為業界標竿的倍數表現。
Srini Gopalan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Srini Gopalan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, because the proof of the pudding, the way we think of it is what is total service revenue growth? And at 9% service revenue growth, clearly, it's working.
對,因為我們認為真正的驗證在於:總服務營收成長是多少?而在 9% 的服務營收成長下,很明顯,這是有效的。
Cathy Yao - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Cathy Yao - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Great. Thanks so much, Bryan. Operator, let's take our next question, please.
很好。非常感謝你,Bryan。接線員,請讓我們進行下一個問題。
Operator
Operator
Sam McHugh, BNP.
Sam McHugh,BNP。
Samuel McHugh - Analyst
Samuel McHugh - Analyst
Just wanted to follow-up on the 2.7 spectrum. I guess I don't know if you have any early indications on how much might be available and whether that's more attractive to you than upper C-Band and how much line of sight you think you'll have on that auction by the time you go into that upper C-Band auction?
我想追問一下 2.7 頻譜。我想我不確定你們是否有任何早期跡象,顯示可能會有多少可供釋出,以及相較於上段 C 頻段(upper C-Band),這對你們是否更具吸引力;另外,在你們參與上段 C 頻段拍賣之前,你們認為對那場拍賣能掌握多少能見度?
And then just one small follow-up on the Starlink JV deal you have today. Is the exclusivity period over now or you're still in the exclusivity period with the X?
然後再補一個小問題,關於你們目前的 Starlink 合資(JV)交易。現在排他期已經結束了嗎?還是你們仍然與 X 處於排他期內?
Srini Gopalan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Srini Gopalan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Cathy, I don't know if we comment on our exclusivity, Cathy.
Cathy,我不知道我們是否會評論我們的排他性,Cathy。
Cathy Yao - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Cathy Yao - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
We have said in the past that it does not end this year. So I'll confirm that.
我們過去曾說過,它不會在今年結束。所以我確認這一點。
Srini Gopalan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Srini Gopalan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, I'll confirm that it does not end this year. But you've also heard me talk about kind of where I believe this is going and where kind of differentiation plays versus a complementary service. On 2.7 versus C-Band 2.0, look, it's too early to tell on 2.7. We're excited by both of them because when you step right back, we think we're approaching one of those moments.
對,我確認它不會在今年結束。但你也聽我談過我認為這會走向哪裡,以及差異化在何處發揮作用、相對於互補性服務的定位。至於 2.7 相對於 C-Band 2.0,坦白說,現在談 2.7 還太早。我們對兩者都感到興奮,因為當你退一步看,我們認為我們正接近那種關鍵時刻之一。
And the thing T-Mobile has been incredible at is waiting for those moments where we think this is the time for us to step in and really take a big lead versus competition. The last time we can remember something like this was around the 5G rollout, where we made a conscious decision to go and drive 5G Standalone, where we made a conscious decision to say, we're going to be the 5G leader, right?
而 T-Mobile 非常擅長的一點,就是等待那些我們認為「現在正是我們介入、並相對競爭對手大幅領先」的時刻。我們上一次記得類似的情況是在 5G 推出前後:我們做出有意識的決定去推動 5G 獨立組網(Standalone),也有意識地決定說,我們要成為 5G 的領導者,對吧?
We think we're approaching a similar moment here where wireless technology is evolving so rapidly. 6G is not going to just be 5G on steroids, but it's also going to give us all sorts of opportunities like Edge AI and physical AI.
我們認為我們正接近一個類似的時刻,因為無線技術正在如此快速地演進。6G 不會只是「加強版的 5G」,它也會帶來各式各樣的機會,例如邊緣 AI(Edge AI)與實體 AI(physical AI)。
And we're in a place where we're looking at this and going, look, this is a time for us to drive this differentiation even further. Because the last time we stepped in and drove differentiation through 5G, the results clear for everyone to see. We've dramatically transformed our network. That's driving all the goodness around network seekers. That's driving all the goodness around sustained growth.
而我們現在所處的位置是,我們看著這一切並認為:這是我們進一步推動差異化的時機。因為上一次我們介入並透過 5G 推動差異化時,成果大家有目共睹。我們大幅改造了我們的網路。這帶動了所有與「尋求更好網路」的客群相關的正向效益。這也帶動了所有與持續成長相關的正向效益。
So we'll get into the specifics of, how much C-Band, how much 2.7? What's the sequencing of those auctions? How do we want to think of playing one against the other? But the intent for us is we see this as a big point in time for us to step in and drive further differentiation and cement our network leadership.
所以我們會再深入到細節:C 頻段要多少?2.7 要多少?這些拍賣的時序如何?我們要如何思考在兩者之間的取捨與搭配?但我們的意圖是,我們把這視為一個重要的時間點,讓我們介入、進一步推動差異化,並鞏固我們的網路領導地位。
Cathy Yao - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Cathy Yao - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Great. Thanks, Srini. And thanks, everybody, for joining. That's all the time we have for questions. We're looking forward to connecting again with you soon. Please contact us if you have any additional follow-ups. Thanks so much. Bye.
很好。謝謝你,Srini。也謝謝各位今天的參與。我們的提問時間就到這裡。我們期待很快能再次與各位交流。如果你們有任何後續追問,請與我們聯繫。非常感謝。再見。
Srini Gopalan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Srini Gopalan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you.
謝謝。